Author: admin

September 21, 2020

* Currencies & metals rally on Friday… 

* But give back gains in the overnight markets last night… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What an absolute beauty of a weekend, weather-wise these past few days…  The harsh hot weather that was still with us a week ago, has given way to days with full sun, but high temps of 72-75… I find I can sit outside to read much longer when the temps are in the 60’s!  I hosted a good crowd of neighbors on Friday, and some of us watched both games of the double header! We ordered pizza for dinner, and a good time was had by all!  On Saturday morning, I drove Kathy to the airport, and yes, she’s left me home along for the most part, once again….  Alex is here at night, but he works 10 hour days during the week, so I’ll be in a very quiet house during the days….  And… in my opinion, the great, Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Time Passages…

Well, when I last wrote to you, last Thursday, we had seen some very strange reactions to the Fed’s Press Conference the day before… I whined and whined about how traders didn’t see the forest for the trees, and maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, some trader, read my whining and did something about it, for on Friday all the dollar buying on Thursday was reversed…. The currencies rallied, and Gold & Silver finished the week on a good note! 

Last night when I looked at the currencies the euro had recovered back above the 1.18 handle and was looking as if it would only take a trader eating another biscuit this morning, to push it over 1.19, which has been a real bug-a-boo for the euro…. About  a month or so ago, it was trading well into the 1.19 handle, and I really thought that 1.20 was next, and then, well…  I’ve said so many times that I sound like a broken record, but I believe the PPT stepped to buy dollars…  You see, from my view in the cheap seats, I believe the Gov’t, the Fed, the Treasury, and everyone else associated with them want the dollar to be much weaker, but….. And here’s there the PPT steps in… They don’t want it just fall off a cliff, for that would scare everyone into selling their dollars….

So, in the overnight markets… The dollar bugs went back to work on buying dollars and selling everything else! The euro slipped back below 1.18, and Gold is down $18 from its close on Friday of $1,949. Silver is getting caught up in the selling too and is down 43-cents from its close on Friday of $26.82…   The price of Oil had climbed to $41.51 before getting caught up in the dollar buying last night, and has given back $1 of its gains…. I haven’t seen any rhyme or reason for the overnight markets to be in the dollar buying mood, so maybe its a case of not getting the memo from the U.S. on Friday? 

I’m so totally confused by the rally in Japanese yen…  What on earth are the buyers of that currency seeing that would tempt them to buy the currency of the most indebted country in the world, with negative interest rates, and a country that has to dodge ballistic missiles being lobbed at them from N. Korea?   But don’t get in front of this bus…. you’ll get run over, for when traders get a wild hair, you never know what will become of it!  

I read so many articles this weekend that my mind is clogged up with all those articles! So, I’ll try to recall them, but first…  I found this on Twitter this weekend, and it was a post by the National Review.com, and it said, “At the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s virtual Jackson Hole economic-policy symposium, Fed chairman Jerome Powell drove a final stake into the legendary inflation fighter Paul Volcker’s Fed. The new orthodoxy promises easy money as far as the eye can see and holds that inflation is good — not Venezuelan and Zimbabwean hyperinflation of course, just a moderate dose — thus ensuring that a dollar every year is worth less. Americans should be afraid.”

Yes, Americans should be afraid, because as I said last week, if and when the Fed gets their inflation, it will bring about a decline in the dollar, which is teetering on that decline right now. (The dollar has lost 10% of its value since April) And that will be akin to a double whammy!  The cost of things will be rising, and your dollar’s value won’t buy as much…. All at the same time… That’s going to lead to some very scary times, folks, and through it all you’ll be darn shootin’ happy if you own Gold & Silver…. I’m just saying…

I’ll tell you this straight from the Butler Patio… what the Fed is doing keeping rates at near zero for nearly two decades now, is bring about the stock market bubble, keep zombie corporations alive, which does nothing but weaken the economy, and society…. And worst of all, they have caused retired people to have to invest in the stock market, thus taking on more risk than they ever had to previously!

I can’t count on my fingers and toes the number of emails I receive each day with this guy telling me I can make 1,000% in 3 days, or this guy saying they have the absolute best stock picking algorithm, or this guy saying that they have the absolute best stock buying program, etc. etc. I find this all to be a real shame on the stock industry… Because it just draws in the folks that are on fixed income to supplement their fixed income, and all they’re going to find is that they spent money they couldn’t afford to spend….  

I shake my head when I think of the Fed, and their antics…. I really do. And I don’t understand why people aren’t screaming bloody threats from the streets in front of the Eccles Building!   The article I highlighted above is titled: “It’s Time To Rein In The Fed”….    Well, in my opinion, that would be way to late to take place, because the damage to the economy is done, like a Turkey!  The only way we’re going to get out of this mess of currency printing, zero interest rates, and debt accumulation is to default on our debt….   Now that’s something that’s not discussed at the Eccles Building or the White House or even at the NY Fed…. But somebody must be running proformas on what they would entail and end up looking like…. And when that day comes…

You’ll wake up like you normally do, and take your shower, shave, or what have you, and while you’re getting dressed you notice that your phone is lighting up, with text after text from people that are wondering what they should do, now that the U.S. had defaulted on their debt…. Your heart will sink, and then you turn on the TV and see that Gold has gapped higher by $200, and that’s when it will hit you, that you never got around to buying Gold…. And they tell you on the TV , good luck trying to get some Gold….. 

Don’t let this be you!   Remember the old commercial, of a frying pan with hot grease, and an egg gets cracked, and they say, This your brain (the egg) and this is your brain on drugs, as they drop the egg into the frying pan….   That’s what You’ll feel like if….  You haven’t bought at least 20% of your investment portfolio’s value in Gold…. (Silver)   

I used to believe that everyone wanted inflation to run higher because they thought that it would help bring down the price of the debt….  But now that our debt to GDP is 117%,  I don’t know how high the inflation rate would need to be to help this amount of debt, but I can tell you that it would an inflation rate north of 10%….

OK, before I go on, the previous was a dramatization and in no way was it real….  It was just Chuck thinking of what things might look like in the future… 

Do you remember what it was like in the 70’s when inflation was 13% and higher? And that was for a relatively short time, given time and history… I do…. I also remember the Oil embargo, and either getting up a 4 in the morning (I didn’t write back then) to find a gas station that I wouldn’t have to wait an hour in line to get a fill up…. I do believe that we have seen the best of times for the shale oil producers folks, they’re falling like the leaves right now, and our once very proud Oil Independence could come to and end… I hope not…. But it could happen again….   In my retired state, I’m currently getting about 4 weeks to a gallon of gas…  but it still won’t be a good thing…. I’m just saying… 

Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me an email with some numbers on what it takes to make up for the the low interest rates in the U.S.   So take it away Dennis the floor is all yours! “When I retired in 2005, interest rates were 6%.  $2.5 million put you in the top 1% of the world.  Buy 6% CDs and they would garner $150,000 in income.  At today’s rates it would earn $12,500.

Looking at the five year CD’s and treasuries….

For someone in the private sector to fund a $150,000 guaranteed income in CD’s, they would need to accumulate $30 million

To do so with treasuries, paying .29%, they would need $51,724,125.”

OMG!  I don’t think I had ever thought about it like that! Thank you Dennis for sharing that info and data with us! 

OK…. I know that I’m beginning to sound like the grim reaper…. But things are what they are folks…. And  me and a few others out there, are the only people you’ll hear about this stuff from….  

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week, and while there are some that will celebrate that an 860,000 claims filed, was a number below 1 Million for the 3^rd week in a row, these knuckleheads fail to realize that 860,000 is still twice the size of the previous (to the pandemic) high print for Claims…. And you know me, I look at other things too, besides the weekly number of claims….  For instance the Continuing Claims moved higher again to 29.76 Million, so for rounding we’ll call it 30 Million continuing to receive unemployment checks, which means they are unemployed!

These Unemployment numbers print every week, and every week they get ignored by the Robinhood crowd, and the stock jockeys….  And Consumer Confidence folks… Who continue to amaze me….

The Data Cupboard this week is chock-full-o- Fed Head speeches… There are so many of these Fed Heads on the speaking circuit this week, that there’s more than I care to mention each one!  So, just take my word on that, there are a lot of Fed Head speeches this week!  And it won’t be until Friday that we get a real piece of economic data, when Durable Goods and Capital Goods Orders print for August…

To recap… The currencies and metals rebounded on Friday, but have given back most of those gains in the overnight and early morning trading today… Chuck can’t find a rhyme or reason why the overnight markets were buying dollars, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen! Chuck goes on a long tirade about the Fed…. And the Continuing Unemployment Claims moved higher last week again to now be within’ spittin’ distance of 30 Million! 

For What It’s Worth….  Well, like I said above, I read many articles this past weekend, and in the end, I settled on this one from Zerohedge.com, about the JP Morgan metals trader who was on trial for manipulating the Gold & Silver markets, and it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ex-jpmorgan-trader-sentenced-8-months-prison-fx-bid-rigging 

Or here’s your snippet: “Two years after former HSBC head of currency trading, Mark Johnson, because the first person to be convicted in a global crackdown of currency rigging and was sentenced to two years in a U.S. prison, moments ago a former JPMorgan trader became the second person to be sentenced to eight months in prison for his role in a foreign-exchange bid-rigging scheme.

Bloomberg reports that Akshay Aiyer was sentenced Wednesday by Manhattan District Judge John Koeltl. Last November, Aiyer was found guilty of conspiring with traders at other banks in chat rooms, on telephone calls and at social gatherings to coordinate bids and fix prices of African, European and Middle Eastern currencies while leading customers to believe they were competing with each other.

In 2017, Johnson was convicted of front-running a $3.5 billion client order, but as Bloomberg reminds us, a U.K. court declined to extradite Johnson’s underling, Stuart Scott, and three British traders accused of similar conduct were acquitted by a jury in New York in 2018. U.K. investigators dropped a criminal probe into individual traders after determining they didn’t have enough evidence.

Even though Aiyer’s sentence was lower than that sought by prosecutors, the conviction was a victory for the government, which has a mixed record of prosecuting foreign-exchange traders. In addition to the prison term, Aiyer was also sentenced to two years of supervised release and a $150,000 fine.”

Chuck again….  And once again I’ll say this to all those that tried to tell me years ago that the Gold price wasn’t manipulated… Neener, neener, neener!  I read about another case that’s going on where the defendant said he learned to manipulate Gold prices from his bosses… Seems this guy is willing to spill the beans and take down everyone else with him…. 

Market  Prices 9/21/20: American Style: A$ .7262, kiwi .6707, C$ .7555, euro 1.1792, sterling 1.2860, Swiss $1.0958, European Style: rand 16.6702, krone 9.2280,  SEK 8.8230,  forint 307.40,  zloty 3.7983,  koruna 22.8698, RUB 75.66, yen 104.10, sing 1.3585, HKD 7.7498, INR 73.50, China 6.7680, peso 21.43,  BRL 5.3895,  Dollar Index 93.29,  Oil $40.48,  10-year .66%, Silver $26.39, Platinum $922.00, Palladium $2,354.00, and Gold… $1,931.80

That’s it for today…  My beloved Cardinals took 4 of 5 from the Pirates, with all the games being nail biters!  I have my Mizzou flag flying in anticipation of their opening game this Saturday VS Alabama!  Hey, don’t write off the Tigers… Stranger things have happened in college football! I think I’ll have a tailgate in my driveway for the Tigers on Saturday night! I have a new picture for my wall… My sister, sent me a picture of my dad at probably 16 years old… Man, the resemblance of him and me when I was 16 is eerie….  All I can say is that it makes me feel good, to know that I look like my dad! OK… Come on Cardinals beat those Royals!  And with that, the Animals take us to the finish line today with their song: We Gotta Get Out Of This Place….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

September 17, 2020

* the dollar bugs are back in control… 

* Chuck says these are really Things that make you go hmmm…. 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you!  Well, once again the old pro, Adam Wainwright, went the distance and the Cardinals won the 1^st game of the doubleheader last night…. I’m in awe of the fact that in 2006, Adam Wainwright was the closer for the Cardinals as a rookie… Remember him striking out Carlos Beltran in the 9^th inning to close out the 2006 NCLS, and sent the Cardinals to the World Series, where the beat the Tigers in 6 games, with Adam closing out that clinching game, and now 14 years later, he’s our “stopper”….  The great pitchers find a way to stay in the game for many years…   Sat outside with neighbor Paul for the first game, but the second game I had to go inside in the 4^th inning, as it got too chilly!   Looking Glass greets me this morning with their song: Brandy  That’s a catchy tune, for sure!

Well, during the U.S. trading hours yesterday, the currencies were sold again, and Gold couldn’t hold its early morning gains, once again, and ended up with only $5 of the $20 it had early in the morning….  I don’t get it… The Fed said, “Fed said it decided to keep its policy interest rate at near zero and expects this will be appropriate until two things happen: labor market conditions return to the “maximum employment” and inflation has risen to 2% and “is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.” They went on to say that they see the near zero rates lasting to 2023….  

Chuck says, BS! Between you, me, and the guy down the street, near zero rates are going to be with us for longer than that!  Because the economy can’t grow, with all this debt hanging over it like the Sword of Damocles….  What would it harm for the Fed Chairman, Powell, to actually say something like that? That way they could deflect their inabilities to spur the economy, on Congress for running up the debt… In this day and age of: Blaming someone else for your inadequate actions, the Fed is missing their chance to wash their hands of this slower than a sloth economy….  I’m just saying…

The dollar rallied on this collection of lies, and braggadocio….  So… let them party, for the hangover from the party is going to be a real B….   And I think Traders see that…   and  they want to take the dollar lower, but they have the PPT looking over their collective shoulders…  It has to be the PPT, because who else wants to own a currency that is going to have near zero interest rates for the next 5 years, and a Central Bank that’s inviting greater than 2% inflation into their house?   There, now doesn’t that make sense? 

I found that the dollar buying and euro selling came on a strange day for it to happen….  The German ZEW think tank, showed that sentiment had increased in August, and the Eurozone area economic sentiment reading also beat expectations this month…. So, it’s not all gloom and doom here, but the euro can’t seem to find enough bids to get it past the 1.19 handle…  Of all days for that to happen should have been yesterday… We had the sentiment indexes strengthening, and the U.S. Fed Reserve painting a very gloom and doom picture for the markets to see, and….  Instead of rallying, the euro got sold…Hmmmm….  Now that is something that makes you go Hmmmm….  (thanks to Grant Williams for that phrase!)

The Aussie dollar (A$) actually got sold on a weak fundamental…. Here, the Central Bank said that they didn’t see a recovery for the Aussie economy for 2 more years….  And that honesty, got the A$ on the selling shelf…  That’s two shots at the A$’s armor, just this week…  It’s going to take a full blown weak dollar trend to get the A$ off the canvas now….

And I read this morning that the Bank of England (BOE) is thinking about negative rates…  Remember when I used to tell you that what happens in England shows up on our shores about 6 months later?  While negative rates is a bad thing, the things that could come after negative rates is what scares the bejeebers out of me! 

And Gold should have been soaring! But it wasn’t… And it was kept in check and brought down by the dollar strength…. 

In the overnight markets…. There’s been more dollar buying, folks… I’m lost in Space!  And the computer keeps repeating, “That does not compute, that does not compute”….   Gold & Silver are getting sold early this morning, with Gold down $15, and Silver down 32-cents… with Silver dropping below $27 for the first time in a while… 

The price of Oil has clawed its way back to the $40 handle this morning, I find this trading in Oil to be very interesting… Many years ago, at Mark Twain Bank I had a young man that worked for me that later became an Oil contracts trader… He told me it took a lot of training…  As there are lots of inputs and things that one normally wouldn’t think of that affect the price of Oil…  To me, it’s just a supply & demand commodity… So, you see even a 47 year student of the markets could learn something new!  

I started this week with the great news that Barron’s had reprinted a part of the Sept. 9, Pfennig…. I’m still smiling like a Cheshire Cat about that news…. But it’s not going to change the way I write…. One would think that I would seek out ways to get back into Barron’s…  But that’s not who I am…. If I say something they like, then so be it!  I’m here for you, dear reader, and nobody else….

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the Initial Jobless Claims for last week, and then Housing Starts for August, and a regional manufacturing index, of which I’m boycotting!  And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard has even less to report!  A speech by St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, is the most exciting thing on tomorrow’s data docket…. I say that last line with sarcasm dripping from the keyboard…. 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I have something on my mind, that I’m going to share with you… here goes… I kept thinking about something last night, as I watched a short blip on TV of another fire raging in a city….  Something we were taught in school….  “United We Stand, Divided We Fall”….  I don’t really think those young people in Oakland who were chanting “death to America” really knew what they were saying, or what that would entail….  I shake my head in total disgust of all this, but there’s nothing I can do to stop it….  But just repeating, United We Stand, Divided We Fall”…. 

To recap…. The currencies and metals didn’t make it through the day yesterday, with their gains intact… On a day when both should have been soaring, they were sold instead, or dollars were bought… either way….  Chuck presents a question, that he knows the answer to….  And The Fed said that near zero rates will remain until they reach maximum employment and inflation moves past 2%….  The analysts think that will be 2023… And Chuck says…. 20225….

For What It’s Worth….  Thanks to longtime reader Bob for sending me this link. The article is about how the wealth transfer has really taken a chunk out of the middle class and their ability to earn more, and this article can be found here: https://www.blacklistednews.com/article/78021/the-25-trillion-theft-rand-study-uncovers-massive-income-shift-to-the-top.html

Or, here’s your snippet: “Just how far has the working class been left behind by the winner-take-all economy? A new analysis by the RAND Corporation examines what rising inequality has cost Americans in lost income—and the results are stunning.

A full-time worker whose taxable income is at the median—with half the population making more and half making less—now pulls in about $50,000 a year. Yet had the fruits of the nation’s economic output been shared over the past 45 years as broadly as they were from the end of World War II until the early 1970s, that worker would instead be making $92,000 to $102,000. (The exact figures vary slightly depending on how inflation is calculated.)

The findings, which land amid a global pandemic, help to illuminate the paradoxes of an economy in which so-called essential workers are struggling to make ends meet while the rich keep getting richer.

“We were shocked by the numbers,” says Nick Hanauer, a venture capitalist who came up with the idea for the research along with David Rolf, founder of Local 775 of the Service Employees International Union and president of the Fair Work Center in Seattle. “It explains almost everything. It explains why people are so pissed off. It explains why they are so economically precarious.”

Notably, it isn’t just those in the middle who’ve been hit. RAND found that full-time, prime-age workers in the 25th percentile of the U.S. income distribution would be making $61,000 instead of $33,000 had everyone’s earnings from 1975 to 2018 expanded roughly in line with gross domestic product, as they did during the 1950s and ’60s.

Workers in the 75th percentile would be at $126,000 instead of $81,000. Remarkably, even those in the 90th percentile would be better off than they are now if economic growth had been shared as it was in the post-war era. They’d be making $168,000 rather than $133,000.

Tally it all up, according to RAND, and the bottom 90% of American workers would be bringing home an additional $2.5 trillion in total annual income if economic gains were as equitably divided as they’d been in the past—leading Rolf to dub the phenomenon “the $2.5 trillion theft.”

Chuck again…  I’m retired, but my kids aren’t…. And this really ticks me off! 

That’s it for today….  And tomorrow, of course!  Well, in case you haven’t heard the news, St. Louis was awarded with an expansion team in the Major League Soccer (MLS). Our team won’t play for two more years, but…. The team is already taking deposits for season tickets, and I immediately put down for 2… I don’t know many people that would want to go to a soccer game… But I would!  The team said they would time stamp the deposit, and put me in line for when they draw the tickets….  So, fingers crossed….  Good friend, Rick B. put a deposit in too, so maybe we can go to the games together!  It took nearly a year for the owners to name the team, of which I’m not a real fan of, but it’s our team!  A new stadium is being erected, and I can’t wait to walk into it!  Come on Cardinals, stay strong, and beat those Pirates this weekend!  The great Johnny Rivers takes us to the finish line today with his song: Summer Rain…  “All summer long we were dancing in the sand….Everybody just kept on playing “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band”  With that… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and a Fantastico Friday! And please, please, please, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

September 16, 2020

* Currencies and metals lose their early morning gains

* The overnight markets keep selling dollars… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Man! Was that ever a nasty, ugly game last night for my beloved Cardinals… They not only took one on the chin, they also suffered major body shots, that will probably keep them from winning for a couple of days….  And once again in a time of need, they’ll hand the ball to 39 year old Adam Wainwright…. He has already saved their bacon from being fried a couple time this year. I sure hope he still has “it” today….  It was downright chilly outside last night, so I had to get my Blues hoodie out… I had to cover my bald head, that’s the first thing to get cold! I read last night that Judy Shelton doesn’t have the votes to get her on the Fed Reserve Board…. UGH!… But maybe that’s a good thing, in that she won’t be brainwashed by the other Fed heads, like Big Al Greenspan was… You may recall that Greenspan was a Gold Bug before the Fed… But that changed once he was the Fed Chairman…   The Classic IV greet me this morning with their song: Spooky… I used to play that on my guitar, and the Atlanta Rhythm Section also does a unique version of the song….

OK, the two days of the currencies inching higher came to an abrupt halt yesterday, as someone was buying dollars by the trunk full…   You know me, I believe it was the PPT, once again saving the dollar from falling off a cliff….   The dollar is going to hit dead man’s curve sooner or later, and when they do, it’ll be all she wrote, and the PPT would be downright stupid to step in front of the bus that’s running away with the likes of the euro, krone, ruble, and others….

Gold couldn’t hold its early morning gain of $15, and ended up losing $2.60 to close at 1,953.00… Silver did hold onto 2-cents of its early morning gain to close at $27.12…  I know that yesterday morning I told you that both of these metals were higher in the early trading, but they couldn’t hold those gains, and the dollar buying also spooked the metals traders…. And now we’re onto today, and the early trading doesn’t look promising for the metals… 

In the overnight and early morning markets, both the currencies and metals have climbed back on the rally horse, and are back to pushing higher this morning… Gold is up $16 and Silver is up 25-cents…  And the euro is moving higher again…  The overnight markets are trying to tell the world that the dollar is overvalued and needs to get sold, but the PPT has other designs… 

And there’s one thing I one to point out this morning and that is that since the dollar rallied strongly in March, it has lost 10% in the Dollar Index… So, maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, Chuck was right when he called for the new weak dollar trend to begin a couple of months ago! 

So… Don’t forget that the Fed is meeting and the meeting will conclude this afternoon with an announcement (read no change) , and followed up by a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell…  I’m so frustrated with the Fed and their actions… I don’t know why people haven’t been showing up in front of the Eccles building with pitchforks and shovels! Don’t they see what the Fed is doing isn’t right?  Apparently not…. 

But rather than having to hear me go on and on about the Fed, I’ve got David Rosenberg on his Twitter feed… Take it away Rosie! “So the Fed is pursuing a new inflationary strategy even though inflation is a tax on wages & real purchasing power for households. Oh, but it leads to negative real interest rates, a boon to equity investors & stimulates borrowing in an economy already up to its eyeballs in debt.” – David Rosenberg on Twitter

OK, I’m back…  A couple of weeks ago I talked about how analysts were saying the Aussie dollar (A$) would reach 74-cents next year… Well, I guess they’ll have to take back those prognostications because….   This news, from the good folks at GATA, says the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) “concedes a weaker dollar would help the economy recover from its historic COVID-19 recession, breaking its silence to agree with the blue-chip companies that warn of exchange rate pain.

The central bank’s comments, revealed in the minutes of its September policy decision, came a day after Macquarie Group flagged that its first-half result would drop sharply partly because of the stronger Australian dollar.”

See? That’s the problem with Central Banks…  ( I mean they have many problems but this is the one I’m talking about now) They say they’ll be silent when it comes to exchange rate pain by Corporations, and then they say the stuff they said above….  The same goes for our Fed Reserve, who said that they were going to be more transparent, and then they aren’t… Darn Central Banks, I say we kill ‘em, I say we hang them then we kill ‘em, I say (in my best Pee Wee Herman voice) let ‘em go….  HA!

OK, I don’t mean any harm to any Central Bankers, but then I don’t want anyone to think that I’ve gone soft on them….  They rankle my feathers, they get stuck in my craw, they give me a bad rash, and so on….

The price of Oil sure has rebounded this week and is trading at $39.12 this morning…  Just last week it appeared that Oil had no friends, and no demand for the commodity, but…. was the selling of Oil overdone? Could have been and that’s why it has rebounded so nicely this week…  

This rebound in the price of Oil has helped the Petrol Currencies to rebound too… The Norwegian krone, Brazilian real, Canadian loonie, Mexican peso, and we can’t forget the leader of the band, the Russian ruble… have all moved positively this week VS the dollar… 

Yesterday, I told you that there would be 3 reports for the year 2019 that printed. In all three the numbers showed a great improvement for individuals going into 2020… Of course we all know that 2020 has laid bare that wire that connected individuals from gaining ground…  but just for grins here are the results of the reports….  Median Household Income rose by more an $4,000 to $68,703…  And the Poverty level shrank to 11.7% from 12.8%, and the Uninsured Rate dropped to 8% from 8.5%… Now these are all numbers that a President should be crowing about, but with the pandemic probably destroying these numbers, it sure does take the wind out of the President’s sails now doesn’t it?

The current U.S. Data Cupboard had August prints of Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, and both showed what has been going on here in the U.S. with opening and closing and rinse and repeat of businesses….  Industrial Production only showed a gain of .4% VS 3.5% in July, and Capacity Utilization slipped to 70.9% in August VS 71.1% in July…  That just about tells you everything you need to know about the state of the economy / businesses in the U.S.    One month strong, as everyone opened up again and the next month weak, as many of those businesses had to close once again…

We, as a country need some guidance that’s not biased toward the company that you are an investor in having the cure-all for the pandemic…. And I think we’ll begin to get that with this new doctor, Atlas, that’s in charge…  But the states have their own agendas, and that’s a problem that has existed since the original 13 colonies….  But it’s how it should be…. I’m just saying…

Today in the Data Cupboard we’ll see the August print of Retail Sales…. And here I believe we’ll see the same results as yesterday’s data, and that is that while the Retail Sales data will be fair, it won’t be as strong as it was in July….  And we should have had back-to-school sales in there…. The BHI is indicating to me that Retail Sales will be fair…. Probably .5 or .6% VS the 1.2% gain in July…

And finally today will be the Fed’s FOMC meeting, and press conference…  I can’t imagine that the Fed would be ready to shock the markets, so they’ll keep things status quo, with low rates, probably as far as you can imagine the would remain low…. And they’ll talk more about their framework for creating inflation…  They sure would love to the cog in the machine that jump starts the economy, but unless they start pulling rabbits out of their collective hats, that’s not going to happen….  I do believe that this is the last meeting before the general election 11/3/2020….  The Fed heads will tell you that they are political and then I could tell you that the Pope isn’t Catholic!  You shouldn’t believe either one!

To recap…. The currencies and metals big moves this week were brought to an abrupt halt yesterday, and it all smells like, walks like, and quacks like the PPT, was buying dollars once again to keep the dollar from going for a ride on the slippery slope….  The Fed meets today, and Chuck doesn’t think there will be much come of it that we don’t already know…. Low rates and a need to ramp up inflation, and on the side they would like to stimulate the economy…. Fat Chance of that happening!  And from the looks of 3 reports for 2019, things were looking up for individuals… But then along came a pandemic and sat down beside us….

For What It’s Worth…  I found this article on zerohedge.com and it talks about how the pain from the COVID is becoming worse in the economy, and when I saw that headline I knew it was FWIW worthy! The article can be found in its entirety here: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/covid-financial-pain-much-much-worse-expected-warns-harvard-study?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter 

Or, here’s your snippet: “New findings from a survey by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, published by NPR News on Wednesday, reveal low-income minority households have experienced the most financial hardships in the virus-induced recession.  

The pandemic heavily impacted Black and Latino households across America’s four largest cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston) with massive job loss or reduction in hourly wages or a decline in working hours. 

The survey, conducted from July 1 through Aug. 3, found Latino households (77%) and Black households (81%) in the Greater Houston area incurred “serious” financial problems.  

As for the three other major cities, the survey showed 73% of Latinos in New York City experienced severe financial hardships, 71% of Latinos in Los Angeles, and 63% in Chicago. Black households in New York City (62%), Los Angeles (52%), and Chicago (69%) also reported severe financial distress because of the downturn.   

The survey found a majority of low-income minority households had their savings wiped out, which is similar to our recent report detailing how tens of millions of Americans depleted emergency savings this year.”

Chuck Again…  You really don’t like to see savings wiped out because that puts the family in peril… One more thing, a broken down car, a new furnace, whatever, could put them over the edge…  For putting food on the table for families is the number 1 task, and with no savings… Uh-Oh… 

And that will all spill over to the ever slowing economy…  I’m just saying.. 

Market  prices 9/16/20: American Style: A$ .7342,  kiwi .6753,  C$.7599, euro 1.1873, sterling 1.2988, Swiss $1.1037, European Style: rand 16.3080, krone 8.9738, SEK 8.7668,  forint 301.82,  zloty 3.7446,   koruna 22.5005, RUB 75.05, yen 105.05, sing 1.3569, HKD 7.7599, INR 73.48, China 6.7811, peso 21.01, BRL 5.2707,  Dollar Index 92.82,  Oil $39.12,  10-year .66%, Silver $27.48, Platinum $966.00, Palladium $2,416.00, and Gold… $1,969.00

That’s it for today…  A real slow day for yours truly yesterday, as the day seemed to drag on and on…. I did get outside in the sun to read for about 2 hours yesterday, the sun is not as intense these days, and that’s a good thing for my reading in the sun!  Well, 18-3 sounds like a rout in a football game, but it was the final score of the baseball game last night…. I don’t recall a more ugly game in some time…. But the good thing about baseball is that you get to come back today, and try to forget last night…. It occurred to me on Sunday night that for the first time ever, here in the U.S. we have all the major sports playing and jockeying for TV time…. The U.S. Open starts tomorrow…  I’m having withdrawal pangs, not seeing my cuter than anything granddaughter, Evie May….  I don’t recall if I was this giddy about here being here, with my little d (Delaney Grace) when she was almost 1, I probably was, as she was the first grandchild…  Remember whe I told you that I wasn’t going to set an alarm any longer, and I would get up when I was ready?  Well today was one of those days that I slept past my usual time to wake up…  Oh well, no harm, no foul, right?  Edwin Starr takes us to the finish line today with his great song: Twenty Five Miles… What? You don’t know that one? YouTube it, you’ll love it! And with that I hope you have,  a Wonderful Wednesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

 

Chuck Butler

 

September 15, 2020

* The euro inched higher on Monday… 

* Have Gold & Silver found their mojo again? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I said a prayer last night and asked that Mother Nature give the gulf coast a break…  Please be safe if you’re in that region!  When I went to bed last night, Hurricane Sally was packing 100 mph winds…. And heading to the gulf….  My beloved Cardinals left their bats in St. Louis, and surely didn’t take them to Milwaukee, where they were made to look the fool at the plate by some pitchers I had never heard of…. UGH!  But it’s baseball, I find that I’m more tolerant of bad play this year, because, we almost didn’t have a “this year”…  I just hope that all this “no fans in the stands” is over by the time spring training starts next Feb.  I know that 6 months away, but…. Did you expect when they shut down spring training this year on March 13^th that we would still be dealing with this pandemic?  I sure didn’t!  And I was wrong to think that the warmer weather would burn up the virus…  But all in all, I still say the economy should NOT have been shut down….   I think when all is said and done, the numbers will prove that the death rates were about the same whether you shut down or didn’t….  So, why put the economy in such a bind?   Oh well… it is what it is… Joe Cocker greets me this morning with his great song: You Can Leave Your Hat On….  from the soundtrack of the movie 9 ½ weeks…. 

Well, what happened yesterday in the currencies and metals, I hear you asking?  The currencies, led by the euro, inched higher on the day, but any real moves were nascent at best….  Gold on the other hand gained $15.60 to end the day at $1,955.60….  (but was $9 higher during the day!) Silver followed along for the ride, closing at $27.10, up 39-cents on the day….

I’m afraid to say this, but…. It appears that the markets have gone into a “wait-n-see” what the Fed has to say tomorrow….   I don’t get it…. I’m sitting here at my writing desk, in my basement, thousands of miles away from D.C. and yet, I think I now what the Fed is going to say….  That interest rates will remain near zero until inflation reaches a level that the Fed feels comfortable, and that they think they can halt the rise of inflation at that level….  I think they’re full of you know what, and I would tell them to their collective faces if I ever had the opportunity to do so! 

My publishers, Mary Anne, and Pamela Aden (aka The Aden Sisters)  recently wrote the following about inflation; “Our late dear friend Richard Russell warned about this for many years. He often pointed out all of the reasons why the Fed and the government were in a position where they literally had to inflate or die.

The main reason why was because the Fed was printing excessive amounts of money to pay for the

governments ever growing expenses and deficits. They simply didn’t have enough money to pay for all these expenses on their own, so the Fed had to step in to pick up the slack.

As you know, too much money creation is the direct cause of inflation. And as Richard foresaw so many years ago, the end result of all this money creation was going to end up in an inflationary bubble.” – Aden Forecast 

So… it is that we are stuck with a Fed that doesn’t care about senior savers, or people on fixed income, or just regular people that will find rising inflation to be a real burden on them….

And then everyone will see a double whammy  when the dollar goes into a weak trend, because as your purchasing power is taken away by inflation, it will be doubled up with a weaker dollar…. 

But that doesn’t bother the folks on Wall Street, the Casino Banks, the Robinhood traders, and the Zombie corporations…  So, the last time I discussed Zombie Corporations, I had a few dear readers send me a note and ask me to explain….  OK, so here goes…. A Zombie Corp. is on that pays more interest on its debt than they take in, in revenue….  And Therefore need government bailouts to continue to exist….   That list of Zombie Corporations is growing like a weed, folks, I read yesterday that Zombie Corporations are now at 20% in the U.S. and that the total Corporate debt issuance in 2020 is already at $1 Trillion….   

This problem with Zombie Corporations is not going to go away easily folks….  When you have the Fed Reserve keeping rates low for a long time, it keeps more unproductive firms alive, which ultimately lowers the long-run growth rate of the economy.  As I said in 2008, when everyone got bailouts, that we should have let them fail…. If we had done that in 2008, and not began this racking up of national debt, we would have at least been better off when the pandemic hit in 2020….   The U.S. Debt Clock tells me that our national debt is up to $26.7 Trillion, and will reach $27 Trillion  soon, and that the Unfunded Liabilities of the country are up to $154.3 Trillion, which is equal to $467, 549 per citizen…

I recall one of my first times on stage at the Agora Wealth Symposium in Vancouver, B.C.  I showed the crowed that their share of the debt was $45,000…  That’s come a long way since then, eh?  I also recall me having a funny slide of Presidents Bush and Obama, wearing different shades of lipstick…   I don’t think I have to go into a long explanation of that one!

OK… so in the overnight markets last night… the euro inched closer to 1.19, dragging most of the currencies along… And Gold has really found its mojo again, as it is up $15.50 in the early trading today and Silver is up 45-cents! So, the metals traders seem to know what’s in store at tomorrow’s Fed meeting, and press conference!  More low rates, more emphasis on rising inflation, and other Fed shenanigans… 

I find it very interesting that Fed Chairman, Powell, and other Fed Heads have been begging congress for more stimulus… They don’t want to be seen as the only reason the ship sunk, they want to take congress down with them!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard was empty yesterday, but it has been restocked for today, and that will mean a showing of August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization….  We’ll also see the final 2019 reports for Median Household Income, the Poverty Rate, and uninsured rate…. These are so old that they won’t carry much water from the well, but, it’s still interesting to see if there is any improvement in them from 2018…

There also a regional manufacturing index that will print, but since I’m boycotting them, I won’t even tell you which one will print today!

To recap…. The currencies inched higher yesterday, led by the euro…. And Gold gained $20 on the day to close at $1,460…. Gold is also up in the early morning trading today by $9…  So, maybe Gold has regained its mojo, eh?  Chuck goes into a long explanation of Zombie Corps, and what the means for the economy going forward….  And you won’t want to have missed his recollection of one of his trips to Vancouver….

On a side bar… The Aden Sisters mentioned the late great, Richard Russell…. I used to grab quotes from him all the time, and then one day the head of King World publishing called me and told me to stop what I was doing. I responded, but I give full credit and the IRL to you each time I quote him, and he said, he didn’t care, I was to stop…. So…. I stopped!   At Richard Russell’s memo rial in San Diego a year or so later, I tried to find that guy, to give him a piece of my mind, but never found him, if he was there that is….

For What It’s Worth…. OK… I don’t mean to be a smart Alec all the time, but when I do….  (sounds like a Dos Equis commercial!)  I love to be a real smart Alec! This article this morning is about Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin and him making some very ridiculous statements, and it can be found here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/14/steven-mnuchin-now-isnt-the-time-to-worry-about-the-deficit-fed-balance-sheet.html 

Or, here’s your snippet: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on Monday that lawmakers should not allow fears over the size of the nation’s deficit or the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to delay additional Covid-19 relief.   

“Now is not the time to worry about shrinking the deficit or shrinking the Fed balance sheet,” Mnuchin told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” from the White House. “There was a time when the Fed was shrinking the balance sheet and coming back to normal. The good news is that gave them a lot of room to increase the balance sheet, which they did.”   

“And I think both the monetary policy working with fiscal policy and what we were able to get done in an unprecedented way with Congress is the reason the economy is doing better,” he added.  

Mnuchin, who argues that more stimulus is needed to help the U.S. economy, said Monday that “we are rebounding in a very, very significant way.”

Chuck again… Ok, where do I start? I guess, first of all, we should check to see what he was smoking….  Then we need to check his temperature, because he could be delirious from having to work with the other knuckleheads on a stimulus package….  Mnuchin hasn’t been the same ever since he visited Fort Knox a couple of years ago, and stated that all the Gold is there that’s supposed to be there, or something like that…  We should have had him committed at that time! 

Market  prices 9/15/20: American Style: A$ .7330,  kiwi $.6730,  C$ .7607, euro 1.1895, sterling 1.2905, Swiss $1.1045, European Style: rand 16.4460, krone 8.9932, SEK 8.7500,  forint 300.57,   zloty 3.7380,   koruna 22.5582, RUB 75.08, yen 105.45, sing 1.3589, HKD 7.7498, INR 73.54, China 6.8188, peso 20.97, BRL 5.3009,  Dollar Index 92.81,  Oil $37.70,   10-year .68%, Silver $27.10, Platinum $958.00, Palladium $2,185.00, and Gold… $1,970.50

That’s it for today…. shorter today… because I didn’t have 4 days to read and research! Well, my beloved Cardinals found a way to eke out a 3-2 win in extra innings to split the double header with the Brew Crew last night.. It was a late finish, and I had just gone to bed, when I thought I’ll check the score one more time, and it was then that I saw that they had finally won. A regular 9 inning game today, before they play another double header tomorrow…   Some people may say that they’re getting tired of all these games, but not me! I’m loving it!  Man have the days cooled down. Last night I had a jacket and baseball cap on to watch the games outside…  Loggins & Messina take us to the finish line today with their song: Your Momma Don’t Dance….   My darling daughter Dawn, used to sing, when she was a little girl, “My momma does dance, and my daddy does Rock-n-Roll”… So cute! And with that I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will be safe, and don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

September 14, 2020

* Thursday & Friday last week trading was Meh… 

* Velocity of currency is what the Fed needs to get their inflation! 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A strange weekend weather-wise here, with clouds, and sun, and cooler temps than are normal for this time of year…  Saturday morning, I got a big surprise, and it made me smile like the Cheshire Cat!  Former colleague at Mark Twain Bank, Neil George, sent me an email letting me now that a piece of my Sept. 9, Pfennig, had been picked up by Barron’s!  That’s right I said Barron’s! Years ago, Alan Ableson, quoted me in Barron’s, and that was also a highlight in my career…   I guess there’s hope for the media, if they think the Pfennig is worthy of being printed in their publication!  It costs currency to subscribe to Barron’s… So, being the tightwad that I am, I had Neil send me the publication… Can’t wait to see it!  The Marshal Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their song: Searchin’ For A Rainbow…

Thursday and Friday of last week were really NBD’s… (No Big Deals)  Gold for instance was up 40-cents on Thursday and down $6.50 on Friday…  Silver had the same kind of move… The currencies, however, held their gains from earlier in the week as the dollar bugs had nothing to buy on… The economic data from Thursday was the Initial Jobless Claims and they once again ticked higher than the previous week, and the Continuing Claims also ticked up from 29.21 Million last week to 29.61 Million the following week…  Nothing to get excited about there, right?  

Then on Friday, the stupid CPI (consumer inflation) printed for August and showed that inflation had dipped in August to .4% from .6% in July… So, that’s going the wrong way, eh?  (for the Fed Heads that is)….  You would think that after all these years of hedonically adjusting CPI that the Fed, needing to show that their efforts to get inflation rising was working, would send a memo to the bean counters, and tell them “no mas” on the adjustments, let’r rip!  For as long as the hedonic adjustments continue, The Fed is never going to see their target met….

Besides, as I’ve explained before…  the kind of inflation the Fed Heads are looking for won’t be gained until the velocity of currency begins to spiral higher… And until the currency grabs that the Fed holds goes to main street instead of Wall Street, we won’t see the velocity of currency rise… 

Things are so screwed up in this country when it comes to real, honest-to-goodness economic reports…. I’m just saying…  And have been saying for many a year now….  I’ve been writing the Pfennig for 28 years, now….  And I’m sure in those 28 years, I’ve pointed out the goofiness of economic reporting here in the U.S. a time or two… Do you think?

This week the Data Cupboard has a plethora of data to print, Like Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and so on… But none today…. So we could see more sideways movements in the currencies and metals today… This is a Fed Meeting Week though!  And that meeting will conclude on Wednesday afternoon, with their announcement, and then follow that up with a press conference for Jerome Powell…  I don’t expect anything of importance to be discussed at the Press conference, other than Powell, reiterating what he’s already said about leaving rates near zero for many years going forward….

I can always count on a good quote from economist David Rosenberg when it comes to the Fed, and I pulled this from his Twitter feed;” I realize who Powell actually is: the doctor with the blood pressure monitor at the hot dog eating competition! Investors gorge, get obese, but won’t die. The S&P 500 market cap/GDP ratio, at 132%, just took out the 2000 peak. We know how this ends, we just don’t know when.” – David Rosenberg on Twitter…

The price of Oil didn’t move much the last 4 days either, as those in the Oil business, are finding out, there’s just not enough demand for Oil…. (gas)  I read last week that the Oil tankers/ ships have reverted to storing their Oil offshore…. In the ship…. At sea…. Where there aren’t things like hurricanes and tropic storms brewing all the time this time of year!   You have to scratch your collective heads on that one and wonder, just what they’re thinking…. 

In the overnight markets last night and early this morning… The currencies are pushing higher VS the dollar, with the euro trading 1.1872 early this morning, things are looking like the dollar bugs will be on the run, or, the PPT will need to step in to curb the appeal for the euro, and other currencies…

The Russian ruble sure has been through hell and high water the last couple of months, with the price of Oil dropping, and their continued struggle to get past the gauntlet of economic sanctions from both the U.S. and the European Union, is turning out to be quite the difficult thing to do these days….  I’m still a believer of the ruble, as a viable alternative to the dollar…. But my beliefs are being shaken to the core these days….  I’m just saying… 

OK… Well, I had a lot of time to read this past week…. I’m almost finished with my book on Thomas Jefferson….  You know, I guess I learned this in school, but Jefferson was no fan of Hamilton….  As it was Hamilton that pushed Washington to sign the bill for a national Bank….   Then again, I doubt I ever came across the stuff I’ve learned in this book before in my life!   My new Cormoran Strike book is set to be shipped on the 16^th of this week, so by week’s end, I’ll be set once again with a  3 inch thick book!

Oh, Come on Chuck, who cares about that stuff but you?  OK, sorry, for the detour from the markets, which to me are very boring right now, unless you’re a Robinhood trader,  a zombie Corporation, or some big wheel on Wall Street….    I really get upset when I think about all those zombie corporations that have been given second, third, and fourth chance to turn things around, and they’ve done nothing but stumble, fumble, and have to punt….   But they’re still around….  Taking up space, that some new corporation might use to better the economy, jobs, and CAPEX….

Both longtime reader, Bob, and good friend, Dennis Miller sent me an article this weekend on zerohedge.com’s site…. The article talks about how for many years, it was the goal of children to out earn their parents… But since 1980, that idea is being slowly shot down, and in the middle class, the chance that kids will out earn their parents has gone from 93% in 1940, to 45%….   This was a very telling chart that showed that stagnated wages for the last 40 years have been the culprit…. 

And in the end pointed out that the “upward mobility” of younger folks is going to be a difficult hurdle to clear… But Shoot Rudy, it was not seashells and balloons for us!

OK… well this could become a real problem, especially if Gold continues higher, which I believe it will… The Insurance companies are moving the goalposts on what they will insure….  Longtime friend, David Gonigam, who does an excellent job at the 5 Minute Forecast, pulled this from Bloomerg: “based on a $100 million insurance cap and 400-ounce gold bars,” investors are restricted to storing 127 bars of gold, down from 165 bars at the end of 2019…”   Not that I know of anyone that has that much in Gold Bars, but, the idea here is that once the insurance company reduces their coverage once, they’ll do it a second time, and third, etc.  

On a sidebar…. Remember the couple in St. Louis that brandished firearms to get protesters off their property, and their so-called private street?  They were charged with, oh who cares, what they’re charged for protecting their property?  The news that came through last week was that at least 9 of those protesters are being charged for trespassing…. What took authorities that long to get around to doing that?  My goodness, me…. I just don’t know what to think about what’s going on this country… What happened to “sit ins” ….   Now, I know I’ve gotten old, cranky, and not afraid to say what’s on my mind!

To Recap…  The trading late last week was a big MEH…  But overnight the currencies have the dollar bugs on the run, so it will be interesting to see if this continues or will the PPT step in once again to save the dollar? The data late last week was so-so… But the data on the docket for this week is hefty! So we have that to look forward to, eh?   Insurers are reducing the coverage on insuring Gold held in vaults…  Will this become something that we talk about every 6 months or so?  Chuck thinks so….  

For What It’s Worth….  I first read this on zerohedge.com and then saw it on Ed Steer’s Friday letter, so I new then that it was FWIW worthy!  You can find Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com , which I highly recommend… This article I’m talking about, is one that talks about how the Fed didn’t buy any Corp. Bond ETF’s in August, and why that might be, and it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-sending-message-fed-bought-no-bond-etfs-entire-month-august

Or, here’s your snippet: “Is Powell Sending a Message: The Fed Bought No Bond ETFs in the Entire Month of August

For much of the past six months, the biggest story was the Fed’s Blackrock-mediated purchases of corporate bonds, either in the primary or secondary market, or via ETFs. As a reminder, while the Fed pre-announced its intention to purchase up to $750BN in corporate bond (including certain fallen-angel junk bonds) in March, it started purchasing bonds in May, and bond ETFs in June (among which such mainstays as LQD and HYG). By directly entering the corporate bond market – something none of his predecessors dared to do even at the depths of the financial crisis  – Powell created what many believe, as GLJ’s Gordon Johnson writes, “the biggest corporate bond bubble, and junk bond bubble, in history (and that all happened before the Fed even started buying).” And, as expected, bond prices, stocks, and ETFs all surged – completely disconnected from fundamentals – while yields plunged, as everyone was trying to front-run the Fed’s pending massive purchases. In other words, by jawboning alone, the Fed accomplished its handiwork.

Yet something odd happened in the month of August when during the peak summer doldrums it was SoftBank’s turn to steal the spotlight with its now infamous gamma melt up – the Fed did not buy a single ETF.

The fact that the Fed effectively stopped supporting the corporate bond market during August, and did not buy a single bond ETF last month, “seems to us to be a stark, yet surreptitious, shift in Fed policy stance” according to Gordon Johnson.

Furthermore, it seems to have gone completely under the radar – i.e., given all the brouhaha surrounding the Fed’s jawboning about massive bond purchases, we would argue, at best, this is pocket change. When the market figures out the “Fed put” is no longer in place, with the Fed’s bond ETF holdings actually falling by -$64mn in August, the willingness to buy stocks at “ridiculous” valuations may quickly abate.

Could it be that the Fed is starting to telegraph to the market that it moved too far, too fast? As Wolf Richter writes, “Jerome Powell has explained this many times – that the Fed has succeeded in achieving its objective of creating loose credit market conditions. It has in fact succeeded in blowing this bubble in the shortest amount of time, and the Fed itself is perhaps stunned by the magnitude of the bubble and its own success.”

As Johnson concludes, it suddenly seems “that for now the Fed does NOT have “your back” if you’re buying overvalued companies that lose money with no end in sight” and furthermore with CPI starting to run hot “it seems the Fed may be seeing the “fruits” of its recent jawboning (i.e., creating a bond bubble and bailing out asset holders during the worst economy in our lifetime, despite not taking any real action) souring a bit.”

Chuck Again….  Yeah, that’s all fine and dandy, but what will the Fed do when the next major sell off of the stocks comes?  I would bet the farm  (if I had a farm!) that they would reach into their bag-o-tricks and begin buying ETF’s again….  I’m just saying…

Market  prices 9/14/20: American Style: A$ .7273,  kiwi .6692,  C$ .7590, euro 1.1872, sterling 1.3177, Swiss $1.1027, European Style: rand 16.6887, krone 8.9884, SEK 8.7626, forint 301.15,  zloty 3.7466,    koruna 22.4216, RUB 74.87, yen 105.97, sing 1.3651, HKD 7.7499, INR 73.42, China 6.8319, peso 21.22, BRL 5.3170,  Dollar Index 93.03,  Oil $37.12,   10-year .67%, Silver $26.81, Platinum $931.00, Palladium $2,349.00, and Gold… $1,940.00

That’s it for today….  Well, it appears to me that the weather has turned…. The mornings are cooler, and days warm, and  the evenings are cooler….  I’ve said this before but In my opinion, the best weather we get here in this region is the fall weather….  Fall begins next week, and the only thing bad about fall is that winter follows it! UGH!  But since I retired, and now spend winters in S. Florida, I guess I can’t complain about the cold weather, except when I’m here in December!   My poor beloved Cardinals are now on the road in Milwaukee where they will play 5 games in 3 days…. Then go to Pittsburgh where they will play 5 games in 4 days, then 3 in Kansas City, before they come back home to the sea of red…. The Cardinals have also had a rash of pitcher injuries of late, which doesn’t bode well for their performances in the upcoming double headers! UGH!  I’ll hang with them through it all though….  Just like you dear readers have done with me through the years, of being out with cancer, surgeries, infusion confusion, and all the rest….  REO Speedwagon takes us to the finish line today with their song: Golden Country….  Golden Country your face is so red, with all of your money your poor can’t be fed….  (remember that was a mid 70’s song)  and with that, I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

September 9, 2020

* dollar buying continued on Tuesday… 

* What’s causing the disruption of completing the Nord Stream 2? 

Good  Day….  And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, a day/night doubleheader didn’t go without a win, like the last doubleheader did here against the last place Pirates… My beloved Cardinals settled for a split and now get a day off, before they play another doubleheader VS the Tigers… The Cardinals, because of their quarantine after a virus outbreak, will have to play 23 games in 18 days to finish the virus shortened season. Hopefully they don’t collapse before the season ends, and they can hang on to their current playoff spot….  Chilliwack greets me this morning with their song: Fly At Night (In the morning we land) Let’s see a show of hands of people that know or have heard music by Chilliwack! HA! Just kidding….

Well, I told you yesterday morning that it appeared to be one of those days when just about every asset class gets smacked! Stocks, currencies, and Oil, with Treasuries ekeing out a gain, and the metals coming back and making a positive day of what was negative in the early morning trading. 

Remember the song Ooh, La, la, by faces?  Poor Old Grandad,….  Poor Old Oil, it can’t seem to find any demand…. And the price of Oil just keeps dropping… People just don’t drive like they used to… So many people are still working from home, and probably most of them will keep working from home from now on… School Buses aren’t in use, per se, like they used to be, Summer driving by families just wasn’t there… Can you see a family with kids going across the country to see the Grand Canyon, and when they stop for gas, and everyone piles out of the car, they’re given Clorox wipes to use in the gas station if they touch something?  Dad has one on his hand to pump the gas, and then they get their hands cleaned with GermX when they get back in the car….    Oooh, where do I sign up for a trip like that?

So, Gold was able to come all the way back from being down $9 in the early trading to show a gain of $2.50 for the day and close at $1,932.00… Silver gained back a few cents but still ended up in the red for the day by 18-cents to close at $26.72….  For now, it appears, that $1,920 is a resistance level on the down side for Gold, for when it slipped below that figure yesterday morning, the drive to bring Gold back began….  I’m just saying…

In the overnight markets, there was some additional slippage in the currencies and the stock futures are up this morning, so the rot on the tech stocks might take a breather today… Gold is up $1.60 early this morning, and even the price of Oil is showing green this morning… But it’s not a bright green if you know what I mean… 

Well, the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) the guys that count the beans, said yesterday that through the 11^th month of the fiscal year (August) the Federal Deficit was $3 Trillion, with another month to go….  For those of you new to class, the U.S. budget year is September to September….  That number of $3 Trillion is  $1.9 Trillion more than the same period last year, and more than double the largest yearlong deficit on record, according to the CBO, who then went on to give excuses for the size of the deficit was due mainly to the costs associated with the COVID-19 virus spending….  Well, that may be some of the deficit but not all of it…. Before April began our Budget Deficit was already $743 Billion for 6 months of the budget year…. That would have been annualized to 1.486 Trillion… Still an unsightly number if you ask me!  But that information was not supplied by the CBO, they simply wanted to place all the blame on the virus spending…. Which I also saw yesterday a blurb about more virus spending soon to be up for a vote… They might want to wait until Rocktober when the new budget starts…

And this news was sent to me from the good folks at GATA, who got it from Bloomberg.com, and here you go… “A $750 billion industry still struggling to bounce back from the last crisis is cracking under the Federal Reserves lower-for-longer mantra on U.S. interest rates.

Prime money-market funds — a long-time favorite for anyone seeking a cash-like investment with a little extra yield — are facing an existential challenge, just four years after a regulatory overhaul to restore confidence in the wake of the global financial crisis. Assets in these vehicles dropped 20% in just six weeks this year, spurring talk of new reforms. But some of the industry’s leaders are opting for another solution: Shutting them down.”

Chuck again… Shutting them down?  Oh, wouldn’t that be convenient for the stock jockeys, because where are these people going to go with that bundle of funds to get some return on their cash? The stock market that’s where, thus adding the risk of the bubble popping at any time now… Get everybody in and then turn around and have to get everybody out, makes for 2 commissions…  I’m just saying…

And the GATA folks also sent me this… “U.S. banks are increasingly worried about being repaid on loans secured against commercial property, as offices, malls, and hotels continue to stand empty.

The darkening outlook of banks is laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans, which are flashing warning signals about a borrowers ability to pay.

Among the 10 banks with the largest increases, criticised loans rose by 62 percent in aggregate in the second quarter, but criticised commercial real estate loans rose by 144 percent, to $26 billion, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

The banks with the largest total increases include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.”

Chuck again… I keep saying that all this rent that’s going unpaid is going to hurt.. And the Commercial bldgs.. have a real problem and it goes back to what I was talking about earlier with workers not going into an office, and families not going on summer trips, have left hotels empty, and most commerce these days is done online… No need to go to a brick and mortar store…

One of these days Alice! All this debt is going to collapse the financial system…. I’m just saying…

I had reader send me a note that said that “If I didn’t have anything to say about improving the pandemic, that I should not say anything.”   I guess that was in response to me talking about how the economy should have never been locked down…. Oh, well, I thought I was offering an alternative to the decisions made in April…

This drop in the price of Oil has dealt a bad hand of cards to the Petrol Currencies, as the Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and others can testify…  The drop in the price of Oil isn’t the only thing bugging the ruble…  I was reading something in the 5 Minute Forecast yesterday about how the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was about 200 miles from the completion of the pipeline that would bring natural gas to Germany from Russia is getting the brakes put on the construction of the pipeline… 

Seems the West is having problems with the fact that an opposition leader in Russia apparently was poisoned… And all the blame for this poisoning of this fellow (he is still alive)  is being thrown in the lap of Russian leader, Putin, and that doesn’t sit well with the folks in the West…. So, now Germany is having second thoughts about getting into bed with Putin… 

Well the U.S. going back to the previous administration has been against this construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline… Seems we don’t like anyone messing with our hold on liquified gas shipments to Germany….  Were they that much against it that they would do some espionage stuff in Russia  to make it look bad for Putin, and thus put the kyboshes on the pipeline?  One insider in Russia had this to say…  “if Putin had wanted the man killed, he would be dead”….    Just something to think about, that could be made into a movie, eh?  And longtime readers know of my love for conspiracy theories! 

In yesterday’s Data Cupboard, the July print of Consumer Credit (read debt) was on display, and it showed that Consumers racked up their debt loads by $12 Billion, a 3.6% increase over the June print of $11 Billion…  After seeing a great fall in Consumer debt in April, the last three months have seen that fall reversed…. The interesting part of the report though was the drop in revolving debt (credit cards)…   Seems folks are out buying new cars, and racking up student tuitions…. 

So, the “great American switch to savers” that everyone talked about in March and April, has fallen flat on its face…  

I told you yesterday that this week’s Data Cupboard was lacking real economic data, for the most part…. And today’s Cupboard is a poster child for that thought…. The only piece of data today is Job Openings….   5.9 Million was the print last month…  Corporations are saying that they can’t find qualified workers…. Come one! Give me a Break here! There are 29 Million people, not counting the Gig workers, that are continuing to draw Unemployment checks, and these Corporations can’t find qualified workers out of 29 Million?   

To me that’s just an excuse for not hiring, so they can keep the Gov’t off their collective backs, and they can keep receiving help from that same Gov’t…    But for how much longer?  I read a blurb on Bloomberg this morning that Bond guru, Jeffry Gundlach says, “the high yield bond defaults may double”…  Yikes! 

To recap…. More dollar buying on Tuesday, as brought the currencies almost back to where the started 10 days ago, with their rallies…. Gold was able to bounce back to show a small gain on the day, although Silver couldn’t do the same. The price of Oil continued to get pushed down, on a lack of demand that Chuck illustrates for us…. And the CBO says our Federal Budget Deficit is $3 Trillion with a month to go! 

For What It’s Worth….  Well there sure seems to be more than just yours truly talking about a change in the currency regime (the end of the dollar’s reserve currency status). I would say welcome to my bandwagon, come on climb aboard, there’s plenty of room for us to remain 6 feet apart! Any way, this is an article about that currency regime change Idea, and if can be found here: https://www.rt.com/business/499957-replace-us-dollar-jim-rogers/ 

Or, here’s your snippet: “The dollar is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s main reserve currency, prominent U.S. investor Jim Rogers told RT, following reports of China’s plans to drop a huge chunk of its American debt holdings.

With a national debt of over $26.5 trillion, “the U.S. is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and it’s getting higher and higher every day,” Rogers said, adding that it’s going to take a toll on the country’s currency.

“Traditionally, the U.S. dollar has been the soundest currency in the world. But tradition changes,” he pointed out, referencing the fate of the British pound and Dutch guilder, which, in previous centuries, were considered the most reliable currencies.

“I’m an American, so I don’t really like saying it, but I’m afraid the U.S. dollar is coming to its century or so of dominance, and something else will replace it.”

The dollar may still show strength next year, after the current turmoil in America caused by the Black Lives Matter protests and the election is over, “but that will probably be its last shot,” Rogers said.”

Chuck again…  It was probably in 2010, or 2011, when I used to give presentations around the country, Canada, and Panama that were titled: The Coming Currency Regime Change….  I saw the debt piling up then, and just knew in my heart of hearts that this would come crashing down on the dollar at some point in the future…. 

Market  Prices 9/9/20: American Style: A$ .7244, kiwi .6656,  C$ .7565, euro 1.1776, sterling 1.2932, Swiss $1.0905, European Style: rand 16.7239, krone 9.0985, SEK 8.7987,  forint 303.60,  zloty 3.7775,   koruna 22.5256, RUB 76.11, yen 106.17, sing 1.3684, HKD 7.7502, INR 73.48, China 6.8393, peso 21.67, BRL 5.3281,  Dollar Index 93.57,  Oil $37.48,  10-year .68%, Silver $26.69, Platinum $916.00, Palladium $2,305.00, and Gold… $1,933.60

That’s it for today and this week….  My monthly visit to my oncologist is bright and early tomorrow morning… As I’ve said for many years, I like make any doctor or scans appointments as early in the day as I can to avoid back ups….  Can you imagine how long next Monday’s Pfennig will be with all this time in between now and then to gather ideas and articles?  Better come ready to read with a full cup of coffee!  I’ve been very happy that my good friend, Duane, has been around the past two weeks, to come down and watch the baseball games with me. Watching baseball is much more enjoyable to me, if I have someone to watch it with….  Billy Squier takes us to the finish line today with his song: Lonely Is The Night….   We used to play Billy’s Don’t Say No, CD on the trade desk all the time!  Ok, with that, I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

 

 

September 8, 2020

* The dollar bugs start the week with the conn… 

* Unemployment Rate drops, but Continuing Claims rise? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It was a real Chamber of Commerce weekend here for our Labor Day Holiday weekend, and all I could think about Saturday, was that it would be have the perfect day for the Annual (no more) Butler Labor Day BBQ & Pool Party…. Cards took 3 of 5 from the 1^st place Cubs, who seem to be stumbling… Cards come home after a 5-3 road trip, which in baseball is a big thing to win road games… I’m just saying!  I made my Big Green Egg, work overtime on Friday and Saturday, and now we have tons of food to eat the rest of the week! The late great Otis Redding greets me this morning with his classic song: The Dock of the Bay…

Well, as we start this shortened holiday week, the currencies and metals have had two fair-to-middling days of trading, that took place with most trading houses at the Hamptons starting noon on Friday last week…. And yesterday, the U.S. didn’t participate at all…. Without the price manipulators I would have thought Gold to have a better day than just trading flat to down a few bucks on the day…. The euro rallied above 1.18 again, but who knows just how long the PPT will allow that keep, given their propensity to jump in and buy dollars, whenever the dollar looks iffy….

In the overnight markets…. there’s been a renewal of dollar buying, so we start the week with the dollar bugs dancing in the streets… Gold is down $10.50, and Silver is down 30-cents this morning… And the euro is hanging onto the 1.18 handle by the skin of its teeth…  And the price of Oil has really dropped since last week…. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be a good day for the anti-dollar assets…. 

I saw where the tech stocks got the stuffing knocked out them late last week, and when I checked this morning the futures for the tech stocks are way down, indicating more selling here today…. Kind of reminds me of the dot.com sell off, starting slowly and then breaking through the dam and destroying wealth like a river floods a town… 

Speaking of stocks… I see that today is the day that Apple has announced their dog and pony show. Probably to introduce a new iPhone and iPad, and I get the feeling there will be something else announced today, as there are rumors flying all over, so we’ll see, eh? 

OK, I’m going straight to a list of topics that I want you to know about this morning….  These are important or else I wouldn’t waste my time with them… And don’t forget that I promised you last Thursday that the FWIW article today is a doozy, so let’s see what’s on Chuck’s mind today…

Get this…. Last week it was revealed that the BLS (you know the knuckleheads that give us the hedonically adjusted Jobs Jamboree each month) they have changed horses in the middle of the stream once again, and have changed their seasonally adjusted methodology which, and you guessed it, allows the unemployment numbers look better than they really are…  Why doesn’t someone in Washington just stomp their foot down and so “no mas”!  This is getting ridiculous… and to show just how much the new methodology comes into play… changed seasonal adjustment method on Unemployment data (using additive instead of multiplicative factors) Differences are considerable. Old method would have given 1010K claims, new method gives 881K…    That just gets me in a tizzy folks! But it is what it is, and the Gov’t apparently is ok with them changing the horses in the middle to the stream, so we’re stuck with trying to figure out what the real numbers are each month…. UGH!

Well, I cam across this article on Zerohedge.com this past weekend, and it’s quite scary, check this out: “China To “Gradually” Sell 20% Of Its US Treasury Holdings, May Dump It All In Case Of “Military Conflict. “ and that got that from the Chinese State Dept….  So, it wasn’t fake news! 

About 10 years ago, at the old Everbank World Markets Desk , we had a guest for lunch one day, and it was the famous Jim Rogers… I laid out a scenario I had in my mind for him and he agreed 100% with what I was thinking…. And it was that all the Asian leaders were in a room and sweat was beading off their foreheads, as they waited for the first one to head for the EXIT door, (selling their Treasuries) and then all of them run to the door at the same time, getting all clogged up in the doorway…  This is something that I’ve worried about for many years, as our debt just continued to grow, and we continued to get by on the help of strangers….

Can you imagine what kind of QE / Bond Buying program The Fed would have to come up with, if China started selling their Treasuries?   Just something to think about this fine morning, eh?

And not finally, because I still have the FWIW article today…. But I read this article by David Stockman on the https://internationalman.com/articles/a-rogue-institution-and-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-liberty-in-america/   site, and I told good friend Dennis Miller that this guy sounded like me on the Butler Patio!  Here’s just a little snippet to whet your whistle….  If you want more click on the link above….

“We have never heard more gibberish, double talk, and lies from one podium than we have from Fed Chairman Powell. There is no other way to say it: The Fed has become a dangerous rogue institution that has usurped plenary power over the financial system.” – David Stockman

OK… The data late last week was interesting no doubt….  The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at a lower 881,000 which the Gov’t popped champagne corks over…. But think about this for a minute…. 8881,000 new claims is still larger than any previous number in the history of keeping this data… And here’s an enigma for you…. How could the weekly numbers go down, and the Continuing Claims rise?  Continuing claims were 29.22 Million VS the 27.03 the previous week….  Must be some more funny accounting of the jobs numbers, eh?

And in a not so publicized data print… The August Trade Deficit soared to $63.6 Billion  VS July’s 53.3 Billion…  Now, this can mean a couple of things… Either U.S. consumers were spending more than they have in a long time on foreign goods, or…. And most likely is the case, That foreigners aren’t buying much U.S. Goods….   There have been white papers and theories written about how the Trade Deficit isn’t important…. But I believe it is, and tells a story or paints a picture if you will of how the world is functioning…. And right now, I would say, not very well…

On Friday, there was the Jobs Jamboree… In all its glory…. The BLS told us that 1.37 Million workers went back to work in August, which was a drop of the numbers of folks that went back to work in July which was 1.73 Million….  But the Unemployment rate dropped anyway to 8.4% VS 10.2%… Of course my back of the napkin calculations come up with a different number….  I say the number is probably 9% or worse, because I don’t use the jobs that the BLS adds out of thin air…. Which for those of you keeping score at home is equal to 1,035 Million, since April….  Shoot Rudy, no wonder the Unemployment rate is falling!

This weeks Data Cupboard doesn’t have much to look forward to seeing…. The only real piece of data will be the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday… and for those who give two hoots… CPI (consumer inflation) will print on Friday this week…

To recap…. Late last week, there was some fair-to-middling trading and gains in both the currencies and metals, but nothing really to write home about…. And in the overnight markets last night and early this morning, the anti-dollar assets, Currencies, Metals, and Oil, are all getting sold so the start to the week will be a downer… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today… There’s another quote I wanted you to hear and this one is from Ron Paul, who doesn’t pull any punches when talking about the Fed, the economy and so on… here’s Ron: “Once the lockdowns end, the Fed’s actions may lead to a short-term boom. However, the long-term effect will be even more debt, continued erosion of the average American’s standard of living, and the collapse of the fiat money system and the welfare-warfare state. The crisis will likely be brought on by a rejection of the dollar’s reserve currency status. This will be supported both by concerns about the stability of the US economy and resentment over America’s hyper-interventionist foreign policy.

Yes, just like I keep saying about our financial System collapsing under the weight of all this debt…

For What It’s Worth…. Well, I left you on Thursday wondering what I had up my sleeve, ala Bullwinkle, for today in the FWIW section… As promised this is Pam and Russ Martens from www.wallstreetonparade.com with a little ditty that should send a chill up everyone’s spine, and have them wanting to yell at the walls…. Trust me, that’s Ok… go ahead and yell…. This article can be found on their website, but here’s the link any way! https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/09/wall-streets-felon-banks-to-go-live-with-their-own-stock-exchange-this-month/

Or, here’s your snippet: “Members Exchange (MEMX), a brand new stock exchange, has announced that it will begin live trading of select stocks for the first time on September 21 with a full phase-in on September 29.

Criminal histories are, apparently, no barrier to running a stock exchange in the United States to the deeply conflicted way of thinking of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which issued its approval to operate the exchange on May 5.

Investors in the new stock exchange are some of the most serially-charged Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, along with the hedge fund, Citadel Securities. BlackRock, which is up to its neck in the Federal Reserve’s deeply conflicted bailout programs, is also an investor, as is the high-frequency trading firm, Virtu Financial, and others.

JPMorgan Chase has been criminally investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice at least four times in the past seven years. A criminal probe in 2013 looked at how the bank had used bank depositors’ savings to gamble in exotic derivatives in London, eventually losing $6.2 billion. That case was known as the London Whale and ended in the bank paying $900 million in fines. No criminal charges were brought against the bank.

In 2014, JPMorgan Chase was charged with two criminal felony counts for how it mishandled the business account of Ponzi mastermind, Bernie Madoff. JPMorgan’s compliance staff looked the other way at screaming red flags of money laundering in the Madoff account for decades. Bank employees told authorities in the U.K. that it thought Madoff might be running a Ponzi scheme. It filed no such concerns with U.S. regulators. The bank pleaded guilty to both felony counts.”

Chuck Again…  Yes, there’s much more in the article that I don’t room for here, but you get the gist of what I’m so upset about…. And if you want more, then click the link above and have at it!

Market  prices 9/8/20: American Style: A$ .7248, kiwi .6665, C$ .7597, euro 1.1803, sterling 1.3048, Swiss $1.0905, European Style: rand 16.9380, krone 9.0397, SEK 8.7949,   forint 305.45,  zloty 3.9647,    koruna 22.4545, RUB 75.65, yen 106.25, sing 1.3690, HKD 7.7502, INR 73.78, China 6.8304, peso 21.79, BRL 5.2999,  Dollar Index 93.27,  Oil $37.55,   10-year .69%, Silver $26.68, Platinum $900.00, Palladium $2,331.00, and Gold… $1,919.00

That’s it for today…. Lot’s to think about today….   You know… You dear Pfennig Readers, get to read all this stuff here first…. And even if I am wrong about the financial system collapsing, it’ll come so close that it might as well go the whole nine yards!  Well, College Football got of to a small sample start this past weekend…. My beloved Mizzou Tigers don’t play until September 26, and then they have to play the might Alabama team in the first game of the year…. Little Evie stayed with us Saturday night, and we had a great time! We played, we danced, she tried to walk, and then I must have wore her out, because she slept all night! Andrew & Rachel (Evie’s parents) say we must have some magic dust that makes her sleep all night, because for them, that doesn’t happen!  Ok, a friendly Spiderman neighborhood reminder that there will only be two Pfennigs this week, today and tomorrow… Del Shannon takes us to the finish line today with his rock classic song: Runaway…. As I walk along I wonder, what went wrong with our love, a love that was so strong….  Only the folks my age and older will be humming that song the rest of the day now…. And with that I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

September 3, 2020

* Another day of “suspicious” dollar buying… 

* Bill Bonner gives us his thoughts on the eviction moratorium… 

Good Day…. And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Another yucky day weather wise here where I live in the summer and fall months… I don’t know that it ever really rained, it just looked like it was going to do that all day… That marked 3 days without sunshine… Jimmy Cliff sings a song that goes: Hello Sunshine, won’t  you please come around? Hello Sunshine don’t let me down….   After a night when the Cardinals got 23 hits, and scored 16 runs….  They were only able to muster up 6 hits last night, left the bases loaded in the top of the ninth, and lost in the bottom of the inning…. UGH!  As Tony LaRussa used to always remind Cardinals fans, that winning the series was good… So, the Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Red, and now go Wrigley for the weekend, after getting their first day off in 19 days in which they played 23 games! Now it’s makeup time with several double headers this month… UGH!  OK…  The Beatles greet me this morning with their song from the Sgt. Pepper’s Album: With A Little Help From My friends…. Joe Cocker did a bang up job doing that song at Woodstock, too….

OK, well, yesterday I gave the idea of simple profit taking with a dash of short paper trades thrown in, a run up the flag pole…. But when I threw it against the wall, it slide right down… So once again the PPT has stepped in to save the dollar….  We can’t have two days where the dollar gets sold any longer without the PPT stepping to throw the dollar a life saver…. You know the kind that saves you from drowning, not the kind that comes in multiple flavors in a role with a hold in the middle of them!

The euro lost more ground, and now their lofty level of earlier this week seems like a distant memory….  The Aussie dollar (A$) also got sold, but at least there was a fundamental reason to do so….  Yesterday, it was announced that Australia had entered into a recession last quarter, their first recession in 29 years!  I was beginning to wonder if the folks that call the recession down under, had forgotten what the parameters were, as it had been so long since they were called on to calculate a recession!

This darn, I really wanted to say the other word there, pandemic is really beginning to get under my skin… Yes, lots of people have died from it…. But haven’t we carried things a little too far too long with this virus? I’m just saying…

Gold lost $26 and ended the day at $1,943.10….  Simply amazing that these guys get away with what they get away with…. My dad always told me, Chuck, be patient, your opportunity or time will come, and when it does you had better be prepared to act….    My dad was the smartest man I ever met… He had such logic about things, and I guess that’s where I learned that from….

Ok, sorry about that… Silver also lost 64-cents on the day to close at $27.54….  Platinum was down, Palladium was down, but Rhodium was up… Go figure, right? All three of them are used in catalytic converters for cars, so why would one be up while the other 2 are down, is beyond my thought process, folks…. So, let’s move along to talk about something I do understand!

And the overnight markets haven’t been kind to both the currencies and metals once again….  Gold has given up $9 in the early morning trading, and the euro looks like it would only take a couple more sell orders to bring it back below 1.18…  I just don’t get it… The Chairman of the most powerful Central Bank in the world, just told the world last week that he doesn’t care about anything else but to get inflation rising…. and that doesn’t get traders selling dollars like funnel cakes at a state fair? Gimme a break! 

Ok, remember last week when I talked about the moratorium on evictions, and expressed my concern about everyone else that’s involved in a mortgage loan, spending most of the time talking about the harm to the mortgage bond, and bond holder.  And then yesterday, longtime friend, publishing guru, and author, Bill Bonner gave us his thoughts on the eviction moratorium….. Take it away Bill!

“And what about the landlords? Will there be a moratorium on mortgage defaults? And what about the banks that hold the mortgages? Will there be a moratorium on bank failures?

And what about real estate prices? If landlords can’t collect rents… and can’t pay their mortgages… won’t real estate prices fall? Should there be a moratorium to stop them?

Maybe Mr. Trump should declare a moratorium on all bankruptcies, defaults, sales shortfalls, profit slumps, crashes, and repossessions… and knuckle-breaking loan shark collections.

And why not put a moratorium on weight gain and COVID deaths, too?” – Bill Bonner

OK… yesterday I told you about how the Fed would keep rates low to be able to keep the bond servicing costs down (interest costs)…. And while perusing Twitter, I found this ditty that plays well in the sandbox with what I told you… (Paying less interest while borrowing more is how we got into this mess in the first place: “Net interest costs on the debt have declined 12% during the first 10 mos. of the fiscal year compared with the same period a year earlier, despite rising red ink.”) – Twitter

So, am I right, well, am I right, well?  Of course I am! Not patting myself on the back here folks, just making the point that even little old me (HA!) can figure that one out all by himself!

Well…. I’ve been out walking…. I don’t do that much talking, these days…. These days I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quarter tones to ten, my friend. Don’t remind me of my failures, I have not forgotten them….  (one of my fave Jackson Browne songs, These Days) The reason I  began this part of the letter with the lyrics to that song is that I began to write about how I was thinking, about…. And the next thing I knew, I was singing that song in my head, and my fat fingers were following along! 

So, what I was really thinking about is what the Fed is doing buying all these Corporate bonds, and bond fund ETF’s….  I’ve come to the conclusion that they’ve painted themselves into a corner, and can’t stop buying now, because doing so would cause a major calamity in the markets, and the Fed Heads don’t want to be pointed to as the reason the bubble burst….  

Longtime trader, and active Twitter supplier, Sven Henrich, had this to say about the Fed and their bond buying: “so rather the attitude is: let the bubble run, hope it sorts itself out, rather than be blamed for pricking the bubble they created. imho.”- Sven Henrich on Twitter…

OK, I had two FWIW stories lined up today, and decided to go with the one that’s below, and save the other one for Tuesday next week (remember Monday is a holiday) and it’s from Pam and Russ Martens of wallstreetonparade.com, so that’ll give you something to look forward to….  Another thing my dad taught me when I began my career in the music industry, he told me, “Chuck, always leave your audience wanting…”  So, that’s what I’m doing today giving you a teaser for Monday….  Pretty suave of me, eh? HAHAHAHA!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment report for August, and from what they reported the number blew away the forecast of 162,000, and came in at 428,000 jobs added in August! Well, as the late Great Charlie Daniels said, “Well, you’re pretty good old son, but sit down on that stump and let me show you how it’s done”…. We as a country have laid off over 30 Million people and that doesn’t count the “gig workers”, so when the economy began to open up, shouldn’t the jobs added be blowout numbers? Of course they should!

But short-sighted people don’t see it that way… They see the blowout number, and start singing, we’re in the money, we’re in the money, and clicking their heels way up high!

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims which two weeks ago was 1 Million on the dot… The experts thing that last week’s number will drop below 1 Million….  I guess we’ll find out very soon, eh?  We’ll also see the stupid Productivity report for August, The ISM Services index for August, and the Trade deficit for July…

To recap…. So much for profit taking, this has turned into another PPT-like rout on the currencies and metals by buying dollars, and delivering short Gold paper trades to the COMEX…  Every time it appears that the dollar is going down a deep rabbit hole, it gets pulled out by its ears, and put on Terra Firma once again….  Bill Bonner asks some good questions about the eviction moratorium…  Chuck talks some more about how the Fed can’t raise rates….  And there was lots of singing going on this morning…. Good thing no one is around at this hour of the morning!

For What It’s Worth….  Well, I’ve been telling you that this feels as though we’re in the beginning stages of a new weak dollar trend for a couple of weeks now…. So, when I saw this article featured on Ed Steer’s letter yesterday, I just knew it had to be our FWIW to end the week!  This about the dollar going into a long multi-year weak trend, and it isn’t me talking! It’s someone else, and it can be found here: https://in.reuters.com/article/usa-markets-dollar-analysis/u-s-dollars-woes-are-only-beginning-some-bears-say-idINKBN25S3KN

Or, here’s your snippet: “ The chief investment officer of currency manager A.G. Bisset believes the U.S. currency will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade.

The greenback’s recent weakness “is the beginning of a very large move” that could hurt the droves of investors exposed to it through their holdings in U.S. stocks and bonds, Lindahl said.

Wall Street is swarming with bearish dollar forecasts, though few are as extreme as Lindahl’s.

The U.S. currency is near its lowest level in 27 months and is down about 11% from its 2020 peak against a basket of its peers, with Goldman Sachs, UBS and Société Générale among the banks forecasting more losses.

Hedge fund bets against the dollar in futures markets are at their highest level in about a decade, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while 36% of fund managers in a recent Bank of America Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as their top currency trade for the second half of the year.”

Chuck again… Well, this reminds me of 2001, when I wrote the Decline of the Dollar white paper, and our PR people couldn’t get me an interview to talk about it, until…. Everyone else in the industry began to see the writing on the wall…. And then It was like, “how did you know this was going to happen?”  I would tell them, well, if you line up the tea leaves correctly, they tell the story”… And then I would laugh, and say, no, seriously, all you had to look at were the fundamentals….  These days, what you have to look at are the tea leaves! Seriously, it’s all about sentiment… And if everyone begins to have a sentiment change toward being long the dollar, then Katy Bar The Door!

Market  prices 9/3/20: American Style:  A$ .7292,  kiwi .6730,  C$ .7626, euro 1.1810, sterling 1.3250, Swiss $1.0954, European Style: rand 16.7707, krone 8.9171, SEK 8.7568,  forint 303.28,  zloty 3.7469,    koruna 22.3316, RUB 74.48, yen 106.48, sing 1.3658, HKD 7.7501, INR 73.45, China 6.8310, peso 21.78, BRL 5.3781,  Dollar Index 93.01,  Oil $40.40,  10-year .65%, Silver $27.22, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $2,350.00, and Gold… $1,934.10

That’s it for today…. And tomorrow, and Monday, and while I’m at it…. Next Thursday is my monthly appt with my oncologist, to go over the scans results, which I already know what they are…. So, only two Pfennigs next week, but like I said above, you’re not going to want to miss Tuesday’s FWIW! So, do you have BIG plans for this holiday weekend, the last holiday weekend of the summer?  I don’t, and as I’ve already told you, I’m really bummed out about it…. The Cards and Cubs this weekend with a double header on Saturday, so as long as the weather is nice, I’ll be outside watching them play ball!  I hope to see my kids and grandkids this weekend…  I’ll fire up the Big Green Egg on Friday, and cook all day, so that I don’t have to cook any more thru the weekend!  Supertramp takes us to the finish line today with their song, and my fave Supertramp song: Hide In Your Shell…. ( Hide in your shell, ’cause the world is out to bleed you for a ride…What will you gain, making your life a little longer?)   I simply love this song! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

September 2, 2020 

* The dollar bugs fought back yesterday and overnight

* Chuck talks more about the Fed’s inflation averaging…. 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  WOW! I don’t know what my beloved Cardinals had for lunch yesterday, but they came out swinging against one of the better pitchers in the league, last night and racked up 6 runs in the first inning!  I can hear all of my friends, laughing and saying, “Hey Chuck, I thought you said the Cardinals couldn’t hit?” Ahhh grasshoppers, I said they couldn’t hit the ball consistently….  So, let’s see what they have up their sleeves in tonight’s game before we knight them as Murderer’s Row! Not much going on around here, I can’t even go out and sit in the sun to read during the day, as it’s been  nothing but cloudy and rainy the last two days, and from the looks of it this morning, we could be in for more… UGH!  David Bowie greets me this morning with his song: I’m Waiting For The Man….

Well, yesterday saw the dollar bugs fight back, and the dollar buying went on all day. It was a good morning, good afternoon, good night for the currencies and metals…  But hey! A little profit taking does an asset class some good, as it cleans out the old longs and gets set to move higher….  Gold did eke out a $2.40 gain on the day, to close at $1,970, but… That was nearly $22 below the morning high of $1,991.90…  I’m sure some short Gold paper trades made their way to the COMEX, but all in all it was a day when the dollar bugs fought back. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it!

In the overnight markets… it was more of the same regarding dollar buying, so this morning we’re looking at much lower prices in both the currencies and metals…. Ed Steer of www.edsteergoldsilver.com says this morning that Silver was really sold in the after markets yesterday…. Now that’s something that really gets in my craw…  After hours trading….  Seems they’re doing something illegal doesn’t it?  In college after the bars closed they would go back to the house and have “after bars”…  Nothing good came from that, and nothing good ever comes from after hours trading… It’s something that I think should be outlawed! And those choosing to continue to trade after hours, if caught would be publicly flogged and put on display for all to shame as they pass by! 

OK… back to the markets….   So, get this…. I went online last night to see if there was any news regarding the dollar rally yesterday, and there were two back to back, belly to belly, articles from CNBC that had one saying: “The U.S. dollar will trend weaker on the Fed’s new strategy:” and then the next one right underneath the first one said: “A U.S. dollar rally might be in the cards.”   Ok, got it?

Those poor investors that go to Google and find garbage like that and have to make heads or tails of it, when they could sign up to read the Pfennig, and find out what’s really happening!  And I’m still sticking to my story of profit taking, and a little short paper Gold Trades thrown in to boot….

Yesterday, I talked briefly about how Russia was getting through with their economy with not only the COVID-19 virus slowing its economy, but also remember there are still economic sanctions on Russia from the U.S. and Europe….   I recall hearing people say that the pandemic would bring the Russian economy to its knees and cause the ouster of Putin….  But they were wrong weren’t they?  And now from the RT I see this: www.rt.com: Russia on course to replace Germany as Europe’s leading economy & enter global top five this year – Putin’s economic advisor.

Now that’s a far cry from collapsing don’t you think?  And last night, the ruble along with the Chinese renminbi were the only two currencies to rally VS the dollar… That’s quite significant to me, folks… but that’s a discussion for another day… That is, as long as I remember to talk about it!  HA!

There’s a country that’s been stealth like with its moves VS the dollar…. And that’s India and its rupee….  Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a link to a video of a woman giving 5 reasons why India will pass up China and the U.S. to be the number 1 economy in the world….   Ok, we’re not talking about right this minute, month, year, or decade…. But it was interesting to say the least…. For instance did you know that a large number of the Tech giants are run by Indian CEO’s?   if they could ever figure out how to unlock their consumer led economy….  I’m just saying…

But the rupee, which has lazed around and was happy with trading with a 74 handle VS the dollar, has recently been awaken and got itself on the rally tracks and last night it was trading  with a 72 handle…. It’s nice to see the rupee moving without the sugar fed euphoria of a PM election….  The dollar buying in the overnight markets brought the rupee back to 73 this morning…. 

And talk about a currency, that has been bruised and battered along with the other Petrol Currencies, the Norwegian krone, iwas finding solace and protection being associated with the euro….  that is until yesterday and last night!  A few years ago  the krone had the soaring price of oil and the lofty pricing of the euro going in its favor, but since those two bubbles burst, it’s been famine without the feast for the krone….   Hey, throw the krone a bone will ya, markets? 

I told you longtime readers a long time ago that when the weak dollar trend was real, we would see the Euro-Wannabes, zloty, forint and koruna  on the rally tracks….  And guess which three currencies were stealthily moving higher?  You are so darn smart! Yes, the Euro-Wannabes….   How’d you figure that one out, did I give you too good of a hint?  Oh, well, that’s what was going on, but it has to be sustained and not a false dawn, which we’ve seen a few times in the past couple of years….I want to say…. But for now, it’s game on Garth! Game on Wayne!

The other day I made a Big Deal out of the Ohio Fire & Police pension fund increasing their allocation to Gold by 5%…. And that got me thinking about how other pensions across the country will see this, and think that they should do the same thing?  That could mean large purchases of Gold, coming in the future, folks….  And when push comes to shove, the bullion dealers will look to fill the large orders before they worry about the small ones…. So, why wait to get in line ahead of the big buyers?

This also plays well with what I’m talking about here : Billionaire investor Ray Dalio’s hedge fund  (Bridgewater Assoc.) poured more than $400 million into gold in the second quarter of this year, as the price rallied towards record highs, luring in high-profile and amateur investors alike.

The Big Orders may just be coming fast and furious….  So again, I implore you to get your investments diversified with allocations to metals and currencies, ahead of the Big orders!

Well… talk about reacting to a speech….  There are people on both sides of the fence thinking that they understood Fed Chairman Powell’s speech last week for the virtual crowd at the Jackson Hole Fed Boondoggle….  But I think I laid it out for you in yesterday’s Pfennig, exactly how I view it, and so therefore, we’ll go with that….  That the Fed is going to a average inflation rate target of 2%, which means, if inflation is below the 2% level as it is now, then when it finally rises, the Fed will allow it to go higher than 2%, to average out the rate….  The thing I want to be able to see is them put the brakes on the rising inflation when or if it ever comes….

Paul Volcker tamed inflation with rate hike after rate hike all the way up to 18.39% in June 1980… Remember he even hiked rates out of meeting on a Saturday night? It was called Volcker’s Saturday Night Special….  But… the difference between then and now, was that the U.S. debt that had to be financed was chicken feed…. $900 Billion…  And most of that had been already issued at lower rates….  For the Fed to go on the attack VS inflation with rate hikes, would increase the financing costs tremendously, folks…. So, they, the Fed, are stuck with jawboning rate hikes, and after the initial positive action to the jawboning, the markets will figure out that it was just that, Jawboning, with no rate hikes to follow…. And then inflation will have no predators….  Uh-oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the ISM (manufacturing Index) and Construction Spending with both of them coming in as expected…. Today’s Data Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report, which the experts say will show a 167,000 new jobs in August….   Sounds good, eh? Well, not when you consider how many people are still looking for jobs….   And tomorrow we’ll see just how many people filed for new unemployment claims last week….

To recap….  the two-day rally in the currencies and metals came to abrupt halt yesterday, and the dollar buying went into the overnight markets and came out this morning on the upside of most currencies, and especially the metals…  Chuck thought the graceful downward move yesterday was just profit taking with a few short paper trades thrown in… but this morning this has a different taste to it than just profit taking….  And Chuck’s hoping that we were not witnessing another false dawn… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today…. I’m getting gun-shy, about giving out my thoughts on things…. I know, I should just stick to the markets, but if you’ve read me long enough, you know that I have a difficult time keeping everything about the markets…. Because in the end, all things come back to center, and can be the root cause of a market reaction…. I’m just saying….   

For What It’s Worth….  I saw this headline on Twitter, and it talked about how the Fed has bought $1 Trillion in Mortgage bonds since March…. It’s on Bloomberg.com, and it can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/fed-s-mortgage-buying-spree-at-1-trillion-with-no-end-in-sight

Or, here’s your snippet:” The Federal Reserve has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March, a record pace of purchasing, as the U.S. central bank tries to blunt the impact of the Covid-19 recession on American homeowners.

The Fed bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month. It now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S. Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February.

That drop has allowed homeowners to refinance their mortgages, tantamount to giving them a raise by cutting their monthly loan payments. It’s also helped consumers buy homes. But the Fed’s efforts are causing its balance sheet to balloon, and with the central bank owning so many U.S. home loans, it has unusually high power over setting mortgage rates.

The latest statement from the Fed has promised to keep buying “at least at the current pace.” If the central bank does so, by year’s end it will have purchased about $1.4 trillion in mortgage bonds — and added around $900 billion net to its holdings.”

Chuck again….  You know the line that really caught my eye, don’t you?  “with the Central bank owning so many U.S. home loans, it has unusually high power over setting mortgage rates”…. Yeah, that’s the one that kind of sticks in my craw…. Can you imagine this… Please make your mortgage payment check out to: the Federal Reserve….  That opens doors to all sort of things that’s not good…. think about it…. 

Market  prices 9/2/20: American Style: A$ .7338,  kiwi .6758,  C$ .7651, euro 1.1860, sterling 1.3351, Swiss $1.0978, European Style: rand 16.8220, krone 8.7736, SEK 8.6776,  forint 302.21,  zloty 3.7245,   koruna 22.2023, RUB 73.64, yen 106.25, sing 1.3675, HKD 7.7499, INR 73.08, China 6.8252, peso 21.83, BRL 5.4354,  Dollar Index 92.59,  Oil $43.01,  10-year .68%, Silver $27.63, Platinum $940.00, Palladium $2,290.00, and Gold… $1,962.00

That’s it for today…. Man, I had just finished watching the 16-2 bashing of the Reds by my beloved Cardinals last night, when I heard a hissing sound that kept going, and when I found where it was coming from, our hot water tank’s reserve tank had sprung a leak…. And our furnace room was soaked with water…. Good thing I was still awake to hear that, before it went on all night, and flooded our basement!  Now, today, I have to call a plumber… UGH!   It’s always something, right?  Well, I hope the plumber comes soon…. Wink, wink….  This coming weekend is Labor Day Weekend, which means there’s a three day holiday, that for many will become a 4 day holiday….  I won’t be hosting the Annual Butler Labor Day BBQ & Pool Party this year, for the first time since 2001, when I began to do this. I’ll still be smoking some pork butts, and Turkey Breasts, but just not as much as usual, for it’ll only be my family that I’m feeding this weekend! Labor Day marks the end of summer, technically it doesn’t end for a couple of weeks, but when I was younger the day after Labor Day meant the first day of school….  I have two kids, Dawn and Andrew that are teachers, my heart goes out to them attempting to hold something like school these days…. Smokey Robinson and the Miracles take us to the finish line today with their song: Ooo Baby Baby… Which I’m told was the best “make-out” song…. I have no idea if that’s correct, but it’s what I was told….   I get it though with the silky soulful voice of Smokey Robinson singing to you! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and I ask you to please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

September 1, 2020

* Currencies & Metals both rally on Monday… 

* Chuck’s thoughts on The Fed’s Inflation averaging… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A real downer day here yesterday with clouds and rain, but by dinner time the sun was out, and it was a nice evening…. I wasn’t feeling up to sitting outside to watch the game last night, as my stomach was questioning the gumbo I ate for dinner…. But I got through it unscathed and was able  to watch the whole game that the Cardinals won…. A dear reader sent me a note yesterday, and said that I failed to mention the 3-2-8 double play the Cardinals pulled off this past weekend….  Now that combination doesn’t happen every day folks!    The Eagles greet me this morning with their big song: Desperado…. Why don’t you come to your senses, come down from your fences, oh renegade….

After last Friday’s Valentine’s Day Massacre for the dollar, it regained its footing, and held ground for the most part on Monday…. The euro inched higher in the 1.19 handle, and the A$ moved upward toward the 74-cent handle…. Gold gained $3 in the morning, and held it the rest of the day, to close at $1,968.40… And Silver at $28.24…. So, all-in-all not a bad day for the currencies and metals, and in the end it’s really the kind days you would like to see take place on a daily basis…. Not too strong, not too weak, just right….  The Baby Bear would love days like yesterday….

In the overnight markets…. The currencies haven’t moved much, but…. but the metals have pushed higher once again with Gold gaining $23 and is up to $1,991 this morning, and Silver has added 70-cents to bring it to $28.94…   We’ll have to see how that sits with the price manipulators today…   Speaking of the price manipulators, don’t you wish they would go away… They don’t have to go away mad, just go away….. 

Speaking of the aforementioned Gold….  I was sitting in my recliner, having finished my book, Sirens ot Titan, and thinking about the Fed’s new “hard 2% Average Inflation Target”  And do you know what I came up with?  That since they announced that they are going to average 2% inflation  and as we all know their version of “inflation” hasn’t been to 2% for some time, so if they are really going to average the inflation target, then they’re going to HAVE to allow inflation to run above 2%, to achieve their goal….  Hey! They said it, they were the ones that put the “average inflation target at 2%”  in stone, and now comes the difficult part…. How to get their version of inflation rising….

Well… if they would simply ask me, I would tell them they their inflation measures aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, and to go back to computing inflation like they did before the 90’s and the Clinton Administration, who along with Big Al Greenspan worked on a way to get inflation down, so that interest rates could be lowered, and housing could become more affordable to the masses….

I’ve told you all this before… But Clinton put the onus on Greenspan to come up with a plan to lower inflation… Greenspan hired the Boston Commission, who came up with hedonic adjustments to the inflation calculator, and voila! Inflation was lower, and so were interest rates….   The biggest change was to allow substitutions for the items in the basket that were used previously , when their prices got too high…. For instance, if steak got too expensive, they would say that mom’s would substitute hamburger, so that’s what they did, they substituted by taking steak out of the basket of goods, and adding hamburger….  And so on through the years….  They took out housing and substituted rents, they played these games with the Inflation Calculator… So, if they want to figure out to get inflation going again, calculate it like it was pre 1995….

John Williams at Shadowstats.com does a fantastic job of calculating inflation the way it was calculated Pre 1995… Right now, he’s showing that CPI (consumer inflation) is above 4%….  While the CPI that is hedonically adjusted is just .3%….   And don’t forget what I showed you a couple of months ago where the Chapwood Index…. They show the real price increases in goods & services for the top 50 cities, and just for the top 10 their 2020 inflation average is 10.8%….

So, which one feels like the one you live with?  .3%, or 4%, or 10.8%?   As I’ve ALWAYS said, “inflation is a personal thing and will be different among people, but the overall feel will be the same….  For example, I spend currency on baseball tickets, there are those of you who wouldn’t think of spending currency on a ball game, so when baseball tickets keep going up, I feel that inflation and you don’t!

OK, so… in my opinion, of which I could be wrong, but, we’ll have to see about that!  I think that The Fed’s statement last Thursday should have opened the door for Gold & Silver to push higher without speed bumps….  Man I guess I could have just said that instead of spending all morning talking about inflation calculators!

Of course, the decision to allow housing to be more affordable to the masses, was the root cause of the 2008 financial meltdown….  Think about that for a minute, and then you’ll say, “May, he’s right, I should have never questioned him”! HAHAHAHA!  

To believe or not to believe that’s the question that keeps nagging at me, and I’m not talking about religion, I’m talking about the Gov’t’s data prints….  I just don’t see how anyone could trade with 100% surety that the numbers that just printed were real, true representations of the economy….  I’m just saying…

Well, I told you the other day about the Iron Ore prices that were rising, which was because of the nascent recovery in China, which was also responsible for the rise in the Aussie dollar (A$) , for it’s the Aussies that supply the majority of those raw materials to China….  Well, just so you have an idea of the rise…. Yesterday, Iron ore prices surged above $125 per ton for the first time since February of 2014. Just for grins, I went to 10-year chart for the A$, and in August 2014, the last time iron ore prices were above 125, the A$ was 92-cents….  Hmmmm…..

And longtime reader, Bob, sent me a link to an article about the Russian economy, and how it was not going to drop as much as first believed due to the short-term economic shutdown for the COVID-19 virus…. And that got me thinking of just what the heck currency traders want to see from Russia to get the ruble on the rally tracks?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard needed a breather yesterday after the Data Deluge late last week, and so today’s Data Cupboard gets back to printing data releases such as, the ISM (Manufacturing Index) for July, which to tell you the truth, I was absolutely shocked In June when this Index went from the sub 50 number to one that was above 50…. Remember 50 is the line in the sand that decides expansion (over 50) and contraction (under 50)  And the July print is expected to rise even higher than June’s 54.2%….

Later this week, on Friday, that is, it will be a Jobs Jamboree Friday, of which I decided after watching the BLS destroy accounting for the Unemployment rate for the last time, last month, that I’m not paying attention to it any longer…. Oh, sure I’ll report on it, but I’m not going to allow the BLS to get under my skin any longer…. It is what it is… and that’s that!

We’ll also see Construction spending for July today…. June’s print was a negative -.7%….  With all that’s going on I would expect this data to have risen in July… but by how much will decided by the powers that be… 

And in my never ending attempt to show that the economy is not recovering… This word from Zerohedge.com that J.C. Penney, who filed for bankruptcy previously, is most likely headed to liquidation, which would cost 70,000 jobs….   

To recap…. Currencies and metals both had “just right” or a baby bears day yesterday, which is just fine with Chuck, who would rather see Traders take their time with these asset classes, but having said that, Gold is up $23 this morning, and Silver is up 70-cents!  Chuck goes through a long and tedious explanation of how the CPI data gets manipulated, massaged and cooked each month….   And JCP looks like it’s headed to liquidation…. 

For What It’s Worth….   Well, I think that this article’s gist is the reason why Gold is soaring this morning…. This is an article about China and India rattling sabers again, and it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fresh-tensions-erupt-along-sino-indian-border-causing-financial-tremors

Or, here’s your snippet: “Fresh clashes between Indian and Chinese troops were reported along the heavily contested Himalayan border this past weekend.

India’s Defense Ministry accused Chinese troops of “provocative military movements” late on Saturday night. Here’s the Indian Army’s full statement of their account of what happened:

“On the Night of 29/30 August 2020, PLA troops violated the previous consensus arrived at during military and diplomatic engagements during the ongoing standoff in Eastern Ladakh and carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo.

Indian troops pre-empted this PLA activity on the Southern Bank of Pangong Tso Lake, undertook measures to strengthen our positions and thwart Chinese intentions to unilaterally change facts on the ground. The Indian Army is committed to maintaining peace and tranquility through dialogue but is also equally determined to protect its territorial integrity. A Brigade Commander level Flag Meeting is in progress at Chushul to resolve the issues.”

The latest skirmish between both sides took place in the Southern bank of the Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 14,000 feet elevation along the Line of Actual Control, a 2,162-mile Sino-Indian border. Both countries have moved troops, tanks, artillery guns, helicopters, fighter jets, and other reinforcements as hostilities continue into the fifth month this week.

 

As for the actual skirmish, Asian News International (ANI), an Indian news agency in New Delhi, reported that Indian sources said Chinese troops tried to ‘infringe‘ on Indian land using a ‘sizeable number of troops‘ but Indian forces were able to thwart the move. The number of casualties or captured troops has yet to be reported by either country.

Indian forces told ANI that Chinese stealth aircraft (Chengdu J-20) have been patrolling the Sino-Indian border as tensions continue to increase. 

Indian Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala tweeted: “Our armed forces are standing fearlessly to protect Mother India. But, when will Modi ji show his red eyes.” 

Chuck again….  this could end up being a big deal folks… but one has to weigh it against the fact that these two nations have had several skirmishes through the years over border lines….  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see with this one, eh? 

Market   prices 9/1/20: American Style: A$ .7385,  kiwi .6767, C$ .7688, euro 1.1992, sterling 1.3475, Swiss $1.1046, European Style: rand 16.6534, krone 8.7080, SEK 8.6421,   forint 295.33,  zloty 3. 6618,   koruna 21.8621, RUB 74.02, yen 105.83, sing 1.3575, HKD 7.7498, INR 72.85, China 6.8491, peso 21.76,  BRL 5.4311,  Dollar Index 91.81,  Oil $43.12,  10-year .72%,  Silver $28.94, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $2,327.00, and Gold… $1,991.90

That’s it for today….  A little shorter this morning, and for that you can thank my shaky stomach last night…. UGH!  I just didn’t read that much…  Well, I have  something for you to look forward to…. I do believe that next week, good friend, Dennis Miller (www.milleronthemoney.com) is going to print an interview he did with me…. I don’t hold back any punches with answers to his questions, so you’ll want to be sure you’re already on the list of subscribers before the letter comes out, and you can do that by going to the web address above, and remember… It’s Free!  Looks like another dud day outside right now, UGH! Aliota Haynes and Jeremiah takes us to the finish line today with their rock classic song: Lake Shore Drive….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler