Category: Uncategorized

• the dollar loses its grip late last week…
• The sentiment on Wall Street has changed again!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals are in the dumpster, they lost 3 straight to the snakes out in Arizona right out of the All-Star Break… They are in deep dookie, and with the trade deadline next week, I doubt seriously that they will make a move to improve the team… They didn’t make any moves in the offseason, why would they make them now? It was a grand time on Friday night with my good friends at our local watering hole, and Saturday, I paid the price with an upset stomach all day… UGH!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their big 70’s song: Summer Breeze

The dollar’s mini-rally ended late last week, and the BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday to end the week at 1,203… I think it was a case of traders thinking they had gone too far, too fast, and correcting…   There was nothing late last week in the data that would have been a “buy” signal for the dollar, so there was that…  Gold began to put together a nice rally on Thursday, and ended the week on Friday up $24 since Thursday morning, and close at $3,347… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and ended the week on Friday up 33-cents, and close at $38.11 

The euro climbed back over the 1.16 handle to end the week, and the rest of the currencies all gained a bit here and there VS the dollar… 

Speaking of the euro… Did you hear that Morgan Stanley researchers had to say about the euro? Well, now you will! ” Morgan Stanley predicted that the euro will continue climbing toward $1.30 and beyond — a roughly 12.1% rise from its current level”

WOW! Now that’s going out on a limb! You’ve never seen me out that far on a limb,  have you? But, if the dollar is in a long-term weak trend, then I wouldn’t doubt that the euro will be able to reach that level…  See? My venture out on the limb is a calculated move, predicated on the dollar cooperating… 

The price of Oil climbed back above the $67 handle and that’s where it ended the week, while the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield drop a bit to end the week with a 4.42% yield… 

Last week I allowed my youngest son to swap cars with me as he needed to get new tires on his truck and had to just drop it off at the shop… That was all well and good until I got in my car on Thursday morning to go to the hospital and noticed that my gas light was on and I was about out of gas!  I went through all that to tell you that the price of gas hasn’t seen much of a drop!   

In the overnight markets last night…  the selling in the dollar that began late last week, continued throughout the night, but at a slower pace… The BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,202… The currencies all look a little perkier this morning, with the dollar bugs not too confident in owning dollars at this point. Gold is up $25 to start our day/ week today to start… And Silver is up 24-cents…  

I think that Wall Street is changing their sentiment again, and think the two Fed Heads, one current, and on former are speaking for the whole FMOC, and a rate cut is coming… Maybe not next week, but in Sept.  The Jobs Jamboree next week will hold the hammer, and it will be searching for a nail to drive home the rate cut in Sept… 

And that change of sentiment has a lot to do with Gold back on the rally tracks… All that dollar talk about the economy doing just fine, really suck in the craw of Gold, but that’s changed again, so que sera, sera…   I’ve got the stuff about the Fed Heads later in the letter this morning… 

Well, did you hear what the Bank of England (BOE) is doing these days? They are scrutinizing the banks they oversea and checking for overexposure to the dollar…  Wait, What?  Yes, here’s Reuters: “The Bank of England has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, three sources said, the latest sign of how the Trump administration’s policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability.

However, President Donald Trump’s break from long-standing U.S. policy in areas such as free trade and defense has forced policymakers to consider whether the emergency provision of dollars in times of financial stress can still be relied on.”

This is from one of our staunchest allies, folks…  You can only imagine what’s going on in countries that don’t like us very much…  I’m just saying…

And another of our top allies, the Eurozone, announced that they are preparing a retaliation to the POTUS’s tariffs… It seems everyone is piling on the U.S. right now, and this can’t be good going forward… 

Well, all the talk the last couple of months that the short papers’ traders hold on the metals was showing signs of weakening, have turned out to be nothing more than talk…  The day’s needed in production of Gold to cover the short positions is 68, and the day’s needed in production of Silver to cover the short position is 180, and yes those numbers are down a smidgen, but nothing to that would make you think that the SPT’s run is over… and even coming to an end…  Of course, I would love it if they were coming to an end, but I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown!

A current Fed Head, Waller, and a former Fed Head, Warsh, were both out last week dissing the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie with interest rates, while inflation is still hanging tough…  I have Warsh’s stance for you in the FWIW section today… 

Powell, has to feel like everyone is ganging up on him, and he’s backed into a corner, and he’s not a badger, or a mad racoon… He’s not going to come out and attack these guys, he’s going to coil up in the corner and hope they go away… 

I’m going to bring this subject up again, and then again next week and thereafter until something is done to correct it… I’m talking about the strain on the power grid by the AI drain… You see, AI uses tons more electricity and is already putting strains on power grides around the country… First it was the electric cars, now its the AI machines… E-Gad! And we’re just now getting into the hottest days of summer, when home air conditioners will be working overtime… what happens if your local power grid has a brown out, in the middle of a hot August day? I shudder at the thought… 

Yes, nuclear power could help relieve some of the strain, but building a new nuclear reactor is going to take years!  We’re heading down a dark alley folks…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the June Retail Sales, I have to say that it snuck up on me, so my bad… The June Retail Sales surprised by gaining .6%, after May’s negative print… I know what it was! Father’s Day’s gifts! NOT!  At least not at my house! 

The Data Cupboard today was the Leading Indicators for June… I expect them to be negative again, as they have been for a month of Sundays…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard this week until we get to Friday this week, and by then I’ll be packing my bags for my traditional Summer Vacation!

To recap… The dollar ran into a roadblock late last week and spent Thursday and Friday spinning its wheels. The metals took that as their opportunity to get back on the rally tracks, along with the price of Oil… So, the anti-dollar assets of metals and Oil were both beating up on the dollar to end the week… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had the former Fed Head, Keven Warsh’s comments for you on the Top Fed Head, Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie on rates, and you can find it here: Fed Chair Candidate Warsh Wants More Inflation

Or, here’s your snippet: “During a recent interview with CNBC, Warsh called for a regime change at the central bank, citing its reluctance to cut interest rates.

“Their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a mark against them. It’s as if they’ve lost some of the credibility. Truth is, in economics and inflation, bygones are not bygones. The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them. So, one of the reasons why the president, I think, is right to be pushing the Fed publicly is we need regime change in the conduct of policy.”

The interviewer directly asked Warsh if he thought Trump should fire Powell.

“I think regime change at the Fed will happen in due course.”

Warsh Wants More Inflation

Like President Trump, Warsh is an outspoken advocate of interest rate cuts, arguing that price inflation is under control. His statements indicate he believes the central bank has moved too slowly in the past. During the interview, he said the central bank should look beyond the “one-off” change in prices due to tariffs.

But make no mistake – this is a call for more inflation.”

Chuck Again…  yes, inflation as cooled from its heights, but it has remained siticky, and resilient and in fact increased in June…  The thing these knuckleheads that keep calling for rate cuts aren’t taking into consideration is that Money Supply has been increasing for over a year now… And what have I taught you about Money Supply? That Money Supply equals inflation…   

Market Prices 7/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .5963, C$.7296, euro 1.1659, sterling 1.3566, Swiss $1.2504, European Style: rand 17.7249, krone 10.1780, SEK 9.6177, forint 342.21, zloty 3.6391, koruna 21.2669, RUB 78.20, yen 147.20, sing 1.2820, HKD 7.7498, INR 86.30, China 7.1794, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5796, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $67.36, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $38.54, Platinum $1,457.00, Palladium $1,293.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,372

That’s it for today… Well, my blood work all looked pretty good last week, and my oncologist agreed with me that the tumor in my mouth hadn’t shrunk any more, but has remained stable… I woke up yesterday morning with a horrible pain in my left shoulder… I couldn’t move it without major pain shooting through my shoulder…  The pain subsided just a bit as the day went on… UGH!  I’m so sad about my baseball team… They are circling the bowl, folks… UGH! College Football starts in a month! I hope my beloved Mizzou Tigers do better than forecast… The Doors takes us to the finish line today with their song; Riders On The Storm…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• China’s GDP surprises!

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! That was an interesting All-Star Game last night, with the St. Louis Cardinals representative, Brendan Donovan, getting two hits in his three plate appearances. The Game ended with a tie after 9 innings, and then a stupid swing off took place, and the National League won… That’s not the way to end a game in my book, same with soccer and hockey that do that… The early part of yesterday was warm and sunny, and then the rain moved in… I did get outside for a short time yesterday, but for some unknown reason the sun kind of got to me, and I needed to go inside and drink some cold water! The Marshall Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their song: 24 Hours At A Time… 

Well, the STUPID CPI got the dollar bugs are excited yesterday, when even the STUPID CPI showed an increase in inflation in June… That pretty much was the last nail in the rate cut’s coffin for later this month, and then maybe even into Sept at the FOMC’s next meeting after the July Jamboree…  And that thought got the dollar bugs all excited and they bought dollars left and right… The BBDXY gained 5 index points, and that made 11 index points that the BBDXY had gained in the last two days… 

Gold got the snot knocked out of it again when it looked like rates wont’ be going anywhere soon… Inflation rising should have helped Gold to weather the gold bugs’ storm,  but noooo… The Short Gold Paper Traders saw to that!  Gold ended the day down $20 at $3,324…  Silver was also taken to the woodshed by the SPT group, and once again, they’re hoping that potential buyer shy away from buying, and that long in the tooth holders would give up and sell…  And maybe here in the U.S. that works, but it doesn’t work overseas, and all they do there is provide a cheaper buying opportunity…  I’m just saying… 

The euro led the currencies back to the sick room and to their respective sick beds… Back to the drawing board for me…  This is getting really old, and I’m very tired of it! 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday and the 10-year Treasury bond picked up a few basis points to end the day with a 4.48% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… The overseas markets didn’t buy dollars last night, and I see them saying, “Whoa Partner, we’ve gone just a little too far, too fast” with the dollar rally… The BBDXY starts today at 1,207, the same figure it ended the day yesterday…  Inflation rising is something that will incur higher interest rates but the damage to real interest rates will return, and that’s what foreign investors look to find real returns…  So, we have that working in our favor, NOT!

Gold is up to start our day today, $20 and it will add to that today, unless the Short Gold Paper Traders return with gusto today… I imagine that the STP’s will return at some point just to keep Gold’s price from taking off to higher ground!  Silver is also up to start our day today, 41-cents and has risen past the $38 handle again.. The same for the STPs holds true for Silver today… 

The price of Oil slipped again last night and starts our day today trading with a $65 handle. And the 10-year Treasury bond is trading this morning with a 4.48% yield… I can’t imagine that the 10-year’s yield will remain below 4.50% too much longer, with inflation rising again…. I’m just saying…

I read a report this morning that talked about how the foreign Central Banks around the world have taken to a new form of obtaining physical Gold for their reserves… They’re buying it directly from the mining companies in their own back yards!  This is a cheaper way for the Central Banks to obtain physical Gold, cheaper…  And with the price of Gold so high, this makes abundant sense… So, the Central Bank accumulation of physical Gold continues, it’s just being done in a different way for some Central Banks… 

Well, things in China aren’t as dire as some would have you believe… China’s GDP grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, in a show of resilience against US tariffs. And China posted a record $586 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2025, defying expectations as factories appeared to ride out President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year, well above forecasts, as Chinese companies shifted sales to markets outside the U.S. – Reuters

Let’s see now… China posted a $586 Billion Trade Surplus, mostly selling to other countries than the U.S. Hmmm… sounds like a good business plan to me! 

And I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning… “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.

“Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it’d be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also.”

Chuck Again…  The most recent inflation report, even the STUPID CPI showed inflation rising again, can you imagine what inflation would really be doing if the Treasury Sec. And POTUS got their 3% rate cut?  And with inflation rising again, I would think their calls for rate cuts would be on the back burner… But, once you come out with a call, you have to defend it to the end, that that’s what phase the Gov’t’s stance is in now… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that inflation hits everyone and everything… Including tickets to a ballgame…  check this out: The average sold price of Monday night’s Home Run Derby is $1,041 and $1,183 for last night’s All-Star Game.

The next-highest prices for those two events were $604 and $754 in 2023, when the midsummer classic took place in Seattle.

Chuck again… Now, that’s what I would call a HUGE price increase in two years!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed that the STUPID CPI had gained in June… The June increase in consumer inflation was .3%, and annualized it also rose to 2.7% in June after a printing at 2.4% in May… I told you yesterday that I thought the report would show an increase, and it did… But once again, this report is in no way an indication of what you, me and the guy down the street, are experiencing in inflation.  

Today’s Data Cupboard has the PPI (wholesale inflation) for June and then we’ll see the color of June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization…  Both of these were disappointing in last month’s report, and I don’t see any change this month… 

To recap… The dollar is on a rampage after the STUPID CPI showed that inflation had increased the most for a month, in a few months, thus putting the markets’ call for a rate cut on the back burner… This report was also responsible along with the short paper traders for the loss in Gold & Silver yesterday…   The All-Star Game tickets show how badly inflation is… 

For What It’s Worth…  You know my position on ETF’s… I do not like them Sam, I do not like them with ham, I do not like them, Sam!  But they do show something that helps one with how much physical Silver is held… And the volume is flying off the shelves with Silver, and that article can be found here: 

Or, here’s you snippet: “Through the first half of 2025, inflows of silver into ETFs eclipsed the total for the entirety of 2024, reflecting a surge of silver investment demand.

The average annual price of silver rose 25 percent in H1. That was comparable to the 26 percent gain charted by gold.

Through the first six months of the year, 95 million ounces of silver flowed into ETFs globally. That pushed total fund holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, according to data compiled by the Silver Institute. That’s about 7 percent below the all-time high of 1.2 billion ounces hit in February 2021.

With the rising price of silver, the value of ETF holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding $40 billion for the first time.

ETF inflows were relatively constant through the first five months of the year, and then surged in June, with more than half the gains coming in the final month of H1. It was the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit silver squeeze in early 2021.

It’s important to consider the impact of this ETF on a market that is already operating at a supply deficit. Silver demand outstripped new supply for the fourth straight year in 2024 as industrial demand set another record.

A supply deficit means the surging industrial demand must pull from the existing above-ground supply. With investment demand increasing, the two sectors will have to bid against each other, potentially driving the price higher.”

Chuck again… not really… this is the end of that same article: “But while a silver ETF is a convenient way to play the price of silver on the market, you don’t actually possess any metal. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the silver either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have sometimes been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.”  

Market Prices 7/16/2025: American Style: A$.6520, kiwi .5984, C$ 7289, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3399, Swiss $1.2457, European Style: rand 17.9258, krone 10.3025, SEK 9.7583, forint 344.44, zloty 3.6684, koruna 21.2290, RUB 78.16, yen 148.69, sing 1.2850, HKD 7.85, INR 85.94, China 7.1806, peso 18.80, BRL 55569, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.58, Oil $65.93, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $38.01, Platinum $1,393.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3.339

That’s it for today and this week, as I’ll be at the hospital tomorrow for my monthly infusion… I think I’ve told you this before, but and if I have, forgive me for repeating, but the infusion room is one of the dreariest places on earth… I always want to get in and get out as fast as I can… Well, no baseball tonight, so I’ll have to watch something in place of baseball. UGH!  Darling daughter, Dawn comes over each day and gives swimming lessons to the little ones, and I love to sit outside and watch the little ones learn how to swim, and how their eyes light up when they realize they’re swimming on their own!  Deep Purple takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Hush…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, oh please, remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rallies continued on Monday
• Gold & Silver see their gains taken down…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A Great Show was put on by the contestants in the MLB Home Run Derby last night… There were some real bombs hit! The contest was won by the Home Run leader at the break Cal Raliegh… He’s hit 38 homers so far this year… That would be quite a year’s worth in most players’ minds… I had to watch this to take my mind off of the proceedings in the markets yesterday, we’ll get into that in a bit, but first… Eric Burdon and the Animals greet me this morning with their rock classic hit song: House of the Rising Sun… 

I recall back in the day when I wouldn’t miss a day playing my guitar, I learned this song and was quite pleased with myself! That was 55 years ago, at least! 

Well, the dollar got bought yesterday and continued the buying that took place the previous night.  The BBDXY ended the day yesterday up 6 index points on the day, and closed at $1,202… Well, the trashing of the dollar was fun while it lasted, eh? I read one pundit’s opinion that the dollar rallied because the POTUS announced new tariffs on our 2 top trade partners, The U.K and Mexico..  I don’t see how this favored the dollar, but it apparently did… 

Gold lost its early morning gain, and ended up with a loss on the day of $12… Silver, which earlier in the morning had traded at a 14-year high, had to give back the 60-cent gain it held in the A.M. and finished the day at $38.19… It seems that when the POTUS announced new tariffs on Mexico, that some traders took this to include Silver, of which Mexico is a HUGE exporter of Silver! That, and the short paper traders then decided to take a pound of flesh from Silver’s 14-year high… The short paper traders just couldn’t imagine they would still have their jobs if Silver closed higher in the $39 handle yesterday…  UGH! 

The price of Oil sunk on the tariff’s news too, with Oil’s price ending the day trading with a $66 handle… With U.S. consumers paying more and more for items that are sent to the U.S. and their disposable income circling the bowl… I doubt there will be much driving this fall to see the leaves… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield added another basis point to end the day trading with a 4.43% yield… I’m surprised that it was only 1 basis point… But, there’s nothing I can do about it, so I’ll just leave it that!

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY is down 1 index point to start our day to day at 1,201… Nothing going on there to write home about, so we’ll just move along… Gold is up in the early trading today… 

$13… Much like yesterday morning, that then saw the short paper traders take a pound of flesh from Gold… Silver is down 3-cents to start the day today.. 

Yes, the U.S. consumer is watching their disposable Income circle the bowl, and here’s one of the reasons why… An American family spending $4,000 pa on medication would pay $300 for identical drugs in China, $481 billion in GDP inflation through legalized extortion of US households.  I thank longtime readers, Bob, for sharing that info with me… 

The dollar has been getting sold lately, and suddenly the selling turned around…. Here are the folks at HSBC on Bloomberg.com with their thoughts:  “It was not long ago that a strong USD bubble was evident, but the opposite is occurring: an ‘anti bubble’ of sorts,” the strategists wrote. “‘Bubbly-like’ characteristics exist, which is a warning sign that a USD bottom may not be far away”

A bubble for the downward dollar? That seems a little too far-fetched to me, because I was looking at a long-term downward direction for the dollar… But que sera, sera, whatever will be will be… The future’s not ours to see, que sera, sera…  I beg to differ with the words in that song, I do see the future at times, and I share those times with you dear reader…  I’m just saying… 

Did you hear about the demands that the AI people and their AI machines are putting on power grids?  This is scary stuff folks, we could be looking at rolling blackouts when the dog days of summer are upon us…  For those that have seen this as a possibility and have purchased generators, good for you!   For those of us who haven’t, we had better get a line of large Cubes of Ice!   I’m just saying… 

The Russian ruble finally moved off the $78 handle it has held for a month of Sundays… Kiwi is getting sold after their Central Bank’s debasing of the currency.  The euro couldn’t stand prosperity when it was trading above the 1.18 figure, and now it’s mired in the 1.16 handle. The dollar’s mini rally has the currencies all running for the hills because if this dollar rally doesn’t prove to be a false dawn, then we’ll be in store for more dollar talk regarding the upside… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the STUPID CPI for June this morning.. I said yesterday that there was no way the STUPID CPI would show what we Americans feel as the inflation rate, but it will show that inflation increased in June,  and if it doesn’t, you can bet your bottom dollar that the BLS played games with the data…  That’s it for Data today… I guess the STUPID CPI is so important that it had to have its own day! NOT! There will also be 4 Fed Heads our speaking today… spreading more lies than a farmer spreads manure!

To recap… The dollar selling stopped on a dime, and HSBC says that the dollar was in a selling bubble that has now popped… In other words, the bottom has been reached…  Chuck argues that he doesn’t see it that way… Of course, you knew he would argue with that premise, didn’t you? Gold got sold yesterday, and Silver lost its 14-year high… UGH!

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at Gata sent me this article last week, and I finally got around to using it for my FWIW article… It’s about Gold and it can be found here: The Strategic Imperative of Domestic Gold Supply – DC Journal – InsideSources

Or, here’s your snippet: “In today’s unpredictable global environment, marked by persistent inflation, volatile interest rates and shifting trade dynamics, it’s easy to focus on geopolitics as the main driver behind gold’s enduring appeal.

However, deeper economic fundamentals are the real engine of its long-term strength. Structural deficits, sustained dollar weakness, mounting government budget deficits, and evolving global monetary policy are reshaping reserve strategies. 

Although gold prices have experienced a recent dip, the metal has shown strong resilience over the past year, buoyed by economic pressures rather than short-term market fluctuations. Price fluctuations are expected in any dynamic market, but they don’t diminish gold’s role as a reliable store of value.

Central banks, wary of inflation and weakening currencies, are shifting reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and buying gold at historic levels. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. acquired 600 tons of gold — an indication of growing institutional demand.

These monetary policy shifts and economic challenges indicate a significant potential for gold, reinforcing its strategic importance for investors and nations.”

Chuck again… yes, I’ve discussed all of the above reasons why Gold is so popular again, but as always, sometimes it takes hearing it from someone else to spur one’s action… 

Market Prices 7/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6562, kiwi .5992, C$ .7305, euro 1.1670, sterling 1.3444, Swiss $1.2547,  European Style: rand 17.8090, krone 10.1679, SEK 9.6493, forint 343.17, zloty 3.6469, koruna 21.1433, RUB 77.90, yen 147.92, sing 1.2816, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.61, China 7.1752, peso 18.68, BRL 1,201, Dollar Index 98.08, Oil $66.76, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,396.00, Palladium $1,222.00, Copper $5.55, and Gold… $3,357

That’s it for today… Crazy days… just right for taking a walk outside… early in the morning if you don’t want to deal with the heat of the day! While we’re out walking and thinking, think about whether or not you have enough Gold.  Just a friendly Spiderman reminder…  The MLB All-Star Game is tonight… I root for the National League, who when I was younger seemed to win every year, but not any longer… UGH!  When you had Bob Gibson, Fergy Jenkins, Don Drysdale to pitch for your team, you had a pretty darn good chance to win! Junior Walker & The All-Stars take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: What Does It Take?  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar recovers overnight at a quicker pace…
• Holy Cow, we booked a trade surplus!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were able to eke out a victory yesterday, after losing 2 to the Braves… It was a real nail biter, but after 4 hours of rain delays, the game finally ended… Tonight is the Home Run Derby and tomorrow night is the All-Star Game… Friday and Saturday were beautiful days of weather here, but Sunday brought rain… You have to have the rainy days to fully enjoy the sunny days, in my humble opinion!  Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his hit song: Secret Agent Man.. 

The dollar closed the week on Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY… It started the week weaker, and drifted higher as the week played out… The dollar continues to show that it wants to get weaker, but for some strange reason, it hasn’t.  And the euro has suffered because of that. The single unit ended the week at 1.1688… And the rest of the currencies all slumped downward VS the dollar.  No major moves, just small moves, but downward nonetheless…  

Gold finished last week on a good note… After gaining a measly $10 on Thursday, Gold took off on Friday, and fished the week up $32 to close the week at $3,356… Silver was the shining star on Friday, as it gained $1.38 to close the week at $38.44… That performance was long overdue from Silver, and much needed, if it’s going to reach $40 like so many pundits claimed a month ago… 

The price of Oil finished the week trading with a $68 handle… NO new news from the region so Oil traders were confident in pushing the envelope o the Oil price. The 10-year Treasury bond finished the week with a 4.42% yield…  Instead of listening to me, here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on the 10-year: “As I continue to point out in this spot every week, the 10-year hasn’t been allowed to trade above its 4.92% high tick set back on October 15, 2023 — and it’s more than obvious from the above chart that it will he held at something under 5% until further notice.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The other metals that we track all had phenomenal days on Friday last week, Platinum was up $45 to end the week at $1,409, and Palladium was up $73 to close at $1,236… And Copper ended the week at $5.60… In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter he always gives us the days of production needed to cover the short positions in all the metals, and I noticed that Copper is only needs 5 days of production to cover its short positions… And so, that means that there is very little interest in shorting Copper right now… And that should bode well for it to continue to rise…  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought at a greater pace than previously, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points overnight… The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,199… I read this morning that Wall Street is fearful of inflation returning, as well they should! The euro remains below the 1.17 to start our day/ week, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little worn out… The Euro Wannabes are still well bid, so we have that going for us!  

Gold is up to start our day/ week $12, and Silver is up 60-cents… If what I talked about above regarding Wall Street returning to a risk-off status because of their fear that inflation is returning, then that bodes well for these two metals…   Tensions are bound to return to the markets today, as the POTUS is going to make an announcement on Russia today…  So, watch for that… and trade accordingly…

The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and now trades with a $69 handle… inch-by-inch, the price of Oil recovers… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is rising again and starts our day/ week trading with a $4.43% yield.  Remember the wolf, aka, the Fed Heads are always at the door here, and could come in and do their yield curve control, aka price manipulation, at any time! 

Well, the U.S. Federal Budget was a surplus last month! Can you believe that? Well, it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat!  This from Reuters: “A first: U.S. customs-duty collections jumped in June, topping $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year and producing a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month.” As the great Harry Caray used to say: Holy Cow! So, I’m guessing the POTUS popped a bottle of champagne to celebrate this… 

But this is nothing more than a rounding error, folks… Our Debt is now $37 Trillion, and while I admit that the general public has no idea what the debt is, nor do they comprehend the size…  My favorite read, Matthew Piepenburg had this to say this past weekend, “Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.

This number alone is staggering.

The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.

1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.

Let that sink in for a moment.

If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.”

Chuck again… Matthew can be found here: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option?

I was reading Bill Bonner’s Newsletter on Friday, and he came up with some interesting ideas for fiscal policy for the U.S. These are very familiar as they echo my “debt solutions” Sunday Pfennig many years ago… Here’s Bill: “Anyone could spend a few minutes and come up with much better federal policies. How about this:

Quietly get rid of the violent criminals…then, set up a friendly guest-worker program for other immigrants.

Seriously cut government programs…reduce spending…balance the budget. Let Congress waste resources any way it wants…just so long as it doesn’t spend more than it gets in revenue.

Disband the Fed…re-establish a gold-backed dollar as America’s monetary standard…and let buyers and sellers of credit discover interest rates on their own.”

Chuck again, he also mentions bringing home all the soldiers from every nook and cranny all over the world. He wants to have a parade and celebrate their homecoming and then disband them… My thought on that was that we needed to bring them home and put them on the borders, North and South, and that would take care of our illegal immigration problem…  

But in the end, these are just thoughts, from logical thinking people, that will NEVER be implemented in our lifetimes, and it’s too darn bad!  Instead, we get the MAGIC Money Tree people, the Dick Cheney’s of the world, with is Debts don’t matter garbage, and others who talk about this resilient economy…  Chuckleheads, all of them… 

In other news from late last week, the POTUS announced a 50% tariff on Brazil’s export to the U.S.   Now this wasn’t your normal, “Let’s get the playing field even, kind of tariff” 

 Oh what the heck, I’m going to let Dave Gonigam from the 5 Bullets newsletter explain it to you, here’s Dave: “This is a novel use of tariffs… not to “level the playing field” when it comes to trade, nor to raise revenue for a cash-strapped federal government… but to meddle in the political affairs of other countries.”

I want to know why, oh why, we as a country continue to stick our noses in other countries’ business?  Just think of all the lives we could have kept from harm much less death, if we had just let these countries alone? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back to reporting real economic data this week, with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales and more… There’s nothing in the Data Cupboard today, but tomorrow, we see the STUPID CPI for June… I’m telling you now, that this data print will NOT represent what we as consumers are feeling as inflation… But it will tell us that inflation rose in June… I’m sure of that! 

To recap… The precious metals came roaring back to life on Friday last week, and all 5 of them added to their values… The dollar didn’t move much so it wasn’t dollar weakness that caused the metals to soar, it was rather the talk of more tariffs, that have just about ruled every day for some time now…  And overnight, the dollar was bought at a greater pace to start the day/ week at 1,199… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve long said that U.S. investors are not interested in Gold as a hedge for their investment portfolio and a store of wealth… This article goes into how Hong Kong Investors see Gold for just that… And if can be found here: Hong Kong Investors Have Nearly Tripled Their Gold Holdings

Or, here’s your snippet: “While many Western investors still haven’t hopped on the gold bandwagon, Asian investors have been piling up yellow metal.

For example, affluent Hong Kong investors have nearly tripled their gold holdings over the last year.

According to an HSBC survey, Hong Kong residents with $100,000 to $2 million in investable assets have allocated an average of 11 percent of their portfolios to gold and other precious metals. That was up from a 4 percent allocation just one year ago.

This reflects rising interest in gold and silver by Chinese and Asians more generally.

Investors in mainland China have even more exposure to gold, with an average of 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to precious metals. That was up from 7 percent last year.

Gold was up around 28 percent through the first half of this year. That follows on the heels of a 26 percent gain in 2024.

Asian investors and central bank gold buying have driven the gold bull so far. While physical gold investment surged in China (and Asia more broadly) last year, it remained tepid in the U.S. For instance, gold bar and coin sales surged 12 percent to 124 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 38 percent of global Q1 bar and coin investment. Meanwhile, gold coin and bar sales fell to the lowest level in five years in the U.S.

According to the Financial Times, gold has become the most attractive investment option in the midst of a Chinese real estate crisis and a bear market in stocks.”

Chuck Again…  this article really nails what I’ve been talking about or years now… I also know that many of you dear readers already have taken positions in physical Gold… So, to you, I’m preaching to the choir! 

Market Prices 7/14/2025: American Style: A$.6565, kiwi .5989, C$ .7312, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3481, Swiss $1.2555, European Style: rand 17.8690, krone 10.1037, SEK 9.5876, forint 332.36, zloty 3.6447, koruna 21.0871, RUB 78.09, yen 147.32, sing 2.2810, HKD 7.85, INR 85.98, China 7.1674, peso 18.69, BRL 5.5594, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $69.52, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $39.05, Platinum $1,398.00, Palladium $1,251, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3,369

That’s it for today…  Well, early warning that this week will be a short one, as I am to report to the hospital early Thursday morning, for needles, and a visit with my oncologist, oh, and there’s also an infusion…  For those of you wondering… The tumor in my jaw has stopped shrinking… This is not good news, but it hasn’t started growing again, so that is good news… So, my visit with my oncologist will be important… And next week I leave on my annual summer vacation next Saturday…  YAHOO! This time I’ll be on a plane without an oxygen tank! Thank goodness for that! The Great Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love Me…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to get bought by bits and pieces
• We live in a world of Opposites….

Good Day… And a Tub Thmpin’ Thursday to one and all! What an embarrassment outing for the Cardinals’ pitchers last night… I think the team has gone about as far as they can go with 3 of their starters… Their luck has run out! Do you hear me Mo? (The GM) The World Cup will be back in 2026, with games in a host of countries… Isn’t it about time for the U.S. team to make a run in the tournament? Well, if a ton of the boys that sit in their parents’ basement playing video games would play the game, we maybe could find a super star!  War greets me this morning with their great 70s song: Low Rider…

A chamber of commerce day here yesterday… I sat outside reading for a long time until the heat of the day Started to get to me… Then returned outside in the late afternoon, until the baseball game started. I then subjected myself to Yet another badly pitched game by the Cardinals… this has been occurring too often lately… UGH! The GM had better get some starting pitching at the Trade Deadline, or this team is toast! Blue Swede greets me this morning with their version of a 60’s song done in the 70’s: Hooked On A Feeling

When I left you yesterday, the dollar had been bought overnight, and sat at 1,196 to start the day… And the dollar ended the day at 1,196, so no gain, no loss on the day for the green/peachback…  The euro remained above the 1.17 handle and the rest of the currencies kind of drifted along throughout the day… Gold turned things around for once, in the last week and rallied. Gold gained $12 to close the day at $3,312… Silver didn’t turn things around and lost ground on Wednesday to the tune of 32-cents to close at $36.31… 

I read last night that the World Gold Council, which is normally a very conservative outfit, not wanting to hype Gold, had come out with a statement  that went something like this: “Gold will continue to benefit from the U.S.’s debt and financial instability, and doesn’t have to rely on a financial crisis for its rally”… 

Chuck again… so, if this normally stick in the mud kind of organization sees the U.S. having fiscal instability, and says it out loud, then we should sit up and notice, and take action… Got Gold?

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday… I also read that there is still no peace in the Middle East, with the Houthis taking over ships and sinking them.  So, as long as the Oil tankers can get by, the price of Oil should remain well-bid… 

The 10-year Treasury saw some buying yesterday, (From whom?) and its yield dropped to 4.33%, from 4.41% where it started the day… That’s a big drop for one day’s trading folks, so there must have been some major sized trades going through.. .You know, if it smells like the Fed Heads, and Walks like the Fed Heads, and talks like the Fed Heads, then it must have been The Fed Heads doing to the buying!  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying was light, but the BBDXY did gain 1 index point overnight, so we start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,197… The euro is back above 1.17, for now, and the rest of the currencies have held their gains VS the dollar, but have stopped gaining VS the dollar, for now, that is… The Euro Wannabes continue to be well bid, and that’s a good sign… So, how’s your diversification of your investment portfolio going? Gold has given back the $12 it gained yesterday, in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 13-cents to start the day… 

The price of Oil has slipped back to the $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.34% to start today…  

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been rumored to be ready to cut rates at their next meeting, but in a surprising move the RBNZ left rates unchanged yesterday, and that took some of the pressure off the currency (kiwi) and allowed it to climb back over the .60-cent level… 

Yesterday, I talked about Copper and how the POTUS had announced a 50% tariff on imports, and that Copper’s price had skyrocketed… Well, there was no backing off of the announcement yesterday, so Copper’s price continued to rise, and ended the day at $5.61… I had lamented yesterday that a rising Copper price will make EVERYTHING go higher in price… But don’t let that get in the way of a good story… I shake my head in disbelief…

Yesterday, the Fed Heads released their FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting, and guess what? The Fed Heads are confused! No way, C’mon Chuck tell us another one!  All kidding aside, here’s ZeroHedge.com with their thought on the FOMC Meeting Minutes: “Since the last FOMC meeting (June 18th), which saw a hawkish tilt to the dots (with Fed members notably divided – nearly as many participants anticipated no rate cuts this year as expected two), we have seen stronger-than-expected jobs data, constant diatribes from the president that ‘too late’ Powell should be cutting rates, and some tariff developments that supported Powell’s pause.

Stocks have melted up since the FOMC meeting (even as macro has weakened – bad news is good news)…

…while crude was clubbed like a baby seal (Israel-Iran ‘peace’) as bonds have been very modestly bid against dollar and gold weakness…

Rate-cut odds have risen modestly for 2025 since The FOMC meetings (two full cuts priced in, but July off the table) but are well down from pre-payrolls levels…

And both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data has weakened relative to expectations since the last FOMC…”

Chuck again… the article goes on to talk about how the Fed Heads are divided on their outlook for inflation from the tariffs, with some of the Fed Heads talking about stagflation…  

Confusing I know, but that’s their mantra… Confuse, and keep the markets guessing… 

The POTUS doubled down on his attack on Copper yesterday, when he reminded everyone that the 50% tariffs on Copper will begin on August 1… That’s 3 weeks away!  Oh, and what did the price of Copper do after traders heard that?  It rallied again, and starts today at $5.60

In our world of Opposites, bad news is good for prices, and vice versa…  And it’s not just in the U.S…. Take Switzerland for example… They debased their currency last month with a rate cut, and then went on to talk about how if they had to take rates to negative, they would have no qualms about doing so… That should have deep-sixed the franc, but instead since the rate announcement the franc has been rallying…  Go Figure… 

I already talked about the FOMC meeting minutes above, and that was it for the U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday… Today’s Data Cupboard only has the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…   And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard just has one print and it’s the Monthly Federal Budget data… That should be something! 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought a bit last night, as it gained 1-index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,197… Gold can’t find a good strong bid these days, but that’ doesn’t mean the Gold rally is over, it just means this is a consolodation period… Even the World Gold Council thinks the price of Gold will get back to rising…  Copper is still rallying on tariffs news, and Chuck talks about the Opposites effect that has inflitrated the markets these days…

For What It’s Worth… A lot of traders are puzzled about the tariffs on Gold & Silver Bullion, and this is the reason why… This article can be found here: Whether 145% or 10%, tariff uncertainty is enough to stop U.S. gold and silver imports, distort the metals market at all levels – Experts | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold prices have pulled back since the United States and China announced the lowering of trade tariffs for 90 days amid ongoing negotiations. But whether tariffs today are 145%, 30%, or 10%, the uncertainty gripping U.S. trade continues to make meaningful importing activities impossible. And despite early indications that precious metals would be exempt from Trump’s tariffs, trade activity in the sector is far from normal.

Josh Phair is the CEO of Scottsdale Mint. He said that while the headline may be ‘Gold and Silver Imports are Tariff-Free’, the reality is not nearly so simple.

“They said that bullion is exempted,” Phair told Kitco News. “But if we start looking at a lot of the tariff codes, everyone’s going to need to know exactly what is considered bullion, because in our industry we call coins bullion, like from Perth Mint, for example, but that actually is legal tender. It’s a monetary bullion product.”

Phair said it’s not a straightforward process to determine whether something is tariffed or not, especially when it fits into two or more categories.

“It looks like we’ve got some clarity on a piece of it, but a lot of people are waiting to know everything,” he said. “What nobody wants is to bring in a $10 million shipment of something and get slapped with $1 million-plus in taxes. It feels like the whole world is waiting for clarity.”

Chuck Again… I would agree with Mr. Phair on this… I’ll keep you updated on this, but if tariffs do become part of the Precious Metals trade, then some real changes in the prices of these metals will occur… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6555, kiwi.6015, C$ .7309, euro 1.1715, sterling 1.3576, Swiss $1.2569, European Style: rand 17.7530, krone 10.0742, SEK 9.5144, forint 340.44, koruna 21.0294, RUB 77.79, yen 146.36, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.64, China 7.1750, peso 18.63, BRL 5.5729, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.53, Oil $67.80, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $36.68, Platinum $1,352.00, Palladium $1,146.00, Copper $5.68, and Gold… $3,324

That’s it for today and this week… You know I’m so happy that I decided to take 3-day weekends every week a few years ago, and that no one had a major problem with it… Some readers weren’t happy with me, but they got over it, with time…  I would tell them, “you know, I AM RETIRED?”  Well, semi-retired I guess, since I do wake up with the farmers 4 days a week to write… I’ve gained about 7 lbs since I started being able to keep down food again… I don’t like gaining weight, but the doctors sure do… not to the weight I was in 2020… but from the weight I was 4 weeks ago!  I was pushing the weight loss envelope too far 4 weeks ago anyway!  Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… Yes, music was always the best to listen to with headphones on… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar ends last week drifting…
• Gold ends the 1st half as the Top Dog!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did you have a nice Holiday weekend? It was a hot one here, but it is, Summer in St. Louis, I recall as a kid that we had a week of 100 days, and we didn’t have air conditioning back then! We finally got a room air conditioner; my mom closed all the doors to the room and didn’t allow the kids to open a door and come in during the day! Ahh, great memories! Shirtless, cut off shorts, and a baseball cap were my daily garments! My beloved Cardinals are sinking quickly into an abyss… UGH!  Jim Croce greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Operator… 

Well, last week ended with a dud for the dollar… and not a firework gone bad… Thursday was the last real trading day of the week, and Gold lost $33 after the STUPID Jobs Jamboree showed that 147,000 jobs were created in June, thus the markets surmised that the Fed Heads would delay the July rate cut… Silver found a way to squeeze out a 17-cent gain.. The BDDXY was up 1 index point, whoopee! NOT! The price of oil bumped higher to a 67-cent handle, and the 10-year’s yield increased to 4.35% (no Fed Head buying)  

On Friday, our holiday in the U.S. Gold was traded in Asia and Europe, and saw it gain $10 on the day, to end the week at $3,325… Silver added another 6-cents to it’s value. Gold closed the week at $3,335… Silver closed the week at $36.85… The dollar drifted and really didn’t get much love after the abomination of a Labor Report… Do you think the currency traders are beginning to see the light?  I doubt it, I think that there wasn’t anyone at the trading desks, except some wet behind the ears assistant who was given instructions to not take any positions!  The BBDXY ended the week at 1,191… 

The price of Oil remained in the $67 handle on Friday, and the 10-year ended the week with yield of 4.34%…

In the overnight markets last night.. The traders finally came around to thinking that the Jobs report in the U.S. was enough to scare the Fed Heads away from cutting this month, and they bought dollars… The BBDXY gained 4 index points overnight, and starts today at 1,195… Gold and Silver are taking a shellacking this morning, because of the Jobs Report… Gold is down $33 to start our day, and Silver is down 73-cents… It’s the short paper traders again adding to the negative thoughts in the markets about Gold & Silver right now…  

My good friends and former publishers, Mary Ann and Pamela Aden still have their weekly newsletter, and they depend on the charts for their forecasts, and this is what they had to say about Gold right now… “As for gold, a mild D decline is now in force, and it’ll stay mild as long as gold stays above $3250. We recommend taking advantage of this weakness to buy more if you want to add to your positions.” Of course, you can find the Aden Sisters at www.Adenforecast.com

And what do I always say when Gold get the snot knocked out of it by the short paper traders? Use it as a buying opportunity to buy Gold & Silver at cheaper prices…  

The price of Oil remains trading with a $ 67 handle to start our day today, The Saudis have reported a higher Oil price for their black Gold, Texas Tea… So, that bodes well for the price of WTI the Gold price I use…  And the 10-year starts our day/ week with a 4.35% yield…  

The Good folks at GATA sent me this note: “Monday was the last trading session of the first half of this calendar year, and precious metals have beaten the socks off all other investment categories. Platinum is up 47%, palladium 24%, gold 23%, and silver 22.7%. Even copper previously recognized as monetary in coinage was up 21%”

So, will the 2^nd half of 2025 be as good to the precious metals as the 1st half was?  Well, that’s the $64 question now, isn’t it? In my humble country boy opinion, I would say that it will… The chaos in the world is just beginning, and the debt in the U.S. will continue to grow like a weed, and the fact that for the most part, U.S. investors still don’t own any Gold… Once they figure out that the U.S. in deep trouble, they’ll finally call up their investment advisor and ask if they can sell him some Gold… After being told no, they will then hopefully call my metals guru at EverBank, Tim Smith, at 1-800-926-4922…  

And the rate cuts in the U.S. are still on the docket, folks… They will come, you can bet your sweet bippy…  It was reported on Friday that the POTUS said that he won’t fire Fed Head Chairman, Jerome Powell, but… Powell, might be up for censure from Congress…  Any way you look at this, Powell is out, Bessent is in, and there will be a flood of rate cuts… While all of that is good for Gold… it’s bad for the dollar and the U.S. economy… But that’ll be somebody else’s problem in the future… right? 

Well, these knuckleheads had better be ready to eject from this mess, if it comes back to bite us all before their terms are up… 

If I were king… The first thing I would do is fire all the accountants in the Gov. That has anything to do with all the fraudulent economic reports… Then I would order all of DOGE’s findings to be corrected… Speaking fraudulent reports… The Jobs Jamboree last week for June was nothing but fiction, folks…  The ADP Employment Report for the same period was negative -33,000 jobs in June… Now, would you prefer to rely on the ADP, or the Gov’t for correct reporting of jobs created? 

The dollar is in trouble folks… Got Gold?   The dollar has lost over 10% in the first half of this year, and that means your stocks and bonds are down 10% before they start adding up their gains…  And to me, I think that this 10% loss is just a harbinger of what is to come for the dollar… I could be wrong about that, but as far as I can see with the ways things are going, it’s just logical thinking…  

Oh, and I almost forget to include this from the daily hodl.com  “And add this little ditty to the Jobs report, that many won’t take the time to see: The latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) shows that M2, which tracks the total amount of readily available money circulating in the US financial system, stood at $21.942 trillion as of May 2025, shattering its previous peak of $21.749 trillion recorded in April 2022.”

Chuck again… and you know what I say about money supply, don’t you? Well, you should by now… But here goes: Money Supply is inflation…  So, with the money supply rising at this pace, why should the Fed Heads cut rates? There’s plenty of money circulation  on the economy, and along with it comes…. inflation!

See? I’ve got a bag full of reasons why the dollar is in trouble, but… I can’t go through them all here, maybe tomorrow, I’ll go through some more!

And longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note that he found, that explains why the Chinese have stopped showing up that the Treasury auction window… here it is: In 2011, three years after it rescued the US from the great financial crisis, the Fed asked the PBOC to buy an outsize portfolio of Treasuries. China obliged, then watched helplessly as Quantitative Easing devalued them. Now, says central banker Kathleen Tyson, “China holds its USTs to maturity rather than sell at discount, then reinvests the proceeds in its BRI and BRICS partners”. In 2015, the US Treasury began weaponizing Treasury Bonds through sanctions and expropriations of Venezuelan, Afghani and Russian central bank reserves, alarming the PBOC (and most central banks). This year the US dollar has lost 15% of its value against global currencies. By 2025, says Ray Dalio, unsupportable borrowing will keep the economy in permanent recession⁴.

Chuck again… This is all going to come to tears folks… The Gov’t keeps spending like a drunken sailor, and needing to sell Treasuries to finance their spending sprees,  and that requires someone to buy those Treasuries… What happens when only the Banks required to take on Treasuries (the Primaries)  when the Primaries are the only buyers? Uh-Oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the Trade Deficit for May, which was $71.5 Billion… And the Jobs Jamboree, which I told you last Thursday at the end of the letter that it had printed like that… I just don’t get how the markets can take the fraudulent numbers that the BLS prints each month at face value…  The markets seemed to think that 147,000 jobs created in June was a good number, and showed a strong economy…  Let me be the first to tell them that 24,000 jobs were created out of thin air by the BLS after they had received the surveys… Now, would the markets have a different outlook if the number had been reported as surveyed at 123,00 jobs? Maybe, but who knows, because the markets never stop to look under the hood… And then there was this little ditty:

And add this little ditty to the Jobs report, that many won’t take the time to see: A June jobs report that is consistent with negative prints for real wages and industrial production is deemed by the masses and the markets to be solid. Adjust for the decline in the workweek and the Birth-Death model skew, and guess what? Private sector payrolls sank -400k last month. Let’s hope the Fed finds the time to scratch the surface, just a little. This was a weak report, my friends!

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is pretty barren… Only the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting are offered up for us to view on Wednesday… Other than that it’s all junk reports… Like Consumer Credit (read debt), and the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims… that last one is not so much junk, but it’s not market moving, unless it is… Like I always say, the markets are fickle… 

To recap… Last week ended like a dud for the dollar… Gold was treated badly, but Silver was a welcome guest… There was no Fed Head buying of Treasuries, so the yields of those bonds rose….  The 10-year, that we follow ended the week with a 4.34% yield, it started the month at 4.25%… That was when the markets thought the Fed Heads would cut rates this month… That, no longer, is the case… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me late last week, after I had already quit writing for the week. It’s from MarketMetals.com and its author is Mike Maharry, who is a well-respected analyst… The article is about are interest rates too high? And it can be found here: Are Interest Rates Too High?

Or, here’s your snippet: “A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.

Are they right? Does the central bank need to step in, slash interest rates, and loosen monetary policy?

The honest answer to the question is that nobody really knows. However, from a historical perspective, interest rates are low, and monetary policy remains loose.

What Are Interest Rates?

Before we delve into whether the current interest rate environment is too high or too low, we need to understand exactly what an interest rate is.

Fundamentally, it is a price – the price of borrowing money.

Since interest rates are prices, they behave in the same way as any other price in a free market. As the demand for money increases, interest rates (the cost of money) tend to rise. When the demand for money wanes, rates fall. In other words, if left alone, interest rates will set themselves based on market activity.

When central planners intervene and “set” interest rates, it inevitably creates problems.

Think about it. Would you trust government central planners to set the price of tennis shoes? Or iPhones? Or automobiles? Imagine what would happen.

In fact, we don’t have to imagine. We have countless examples of government price controls going haywire. Inevitably, we end up with shortages and/or overproduction.

Historically, rates aren’t high.”

Chuck Again… Regular Readers of this letter know that I side with Jerome Powell, keeping rates unchanged for now, there will come a time in the near future when cutting rates will make some sense, but to do it now, while money supply is soaring would be disastrous!  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 7/7/2025: American Style: A$ .6502, kiwi .6000, C$ .7317, euro 1.1727, sterling 1.3615, Swiss $1.2631, European Style: rand 17.7532, krone 10.1243, SEK 9.52, forint 340.70, zloty 3.6234, koruna 20.9933, RUB 78.65, yen 145.43, sing 1.2787, HKD 7.8499, INR 85.56, China 7.1742, peso 18.73, BRL 5.4211, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 97.36, Oil $67.00, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $36.15, Platinum $1,350.00, Palladium $1.136.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $3,303

That’s it for today… On July 4 & 5, I smoked some pork steaks that turned out to be ultra-yummy! The secret of cooking pork steaks is to take it slow and low… 6.5 hours later we sat down to eat…  Friday and Saturday were beautiful hot days, and then Sunday it rained… I started reading a new book titled: November 22nd , 1963, because it came highly recommended by good friend Duane… It’s a thick book, like my Cormoran Strike books, so I’ll read 100 pages or more a day…  Earth, Wind & Fire take us to the finish line today with their great song: September… Now, if that song doesn’t get you movin’ and groovin’   Well, I’ve said enough! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• Florida cuts sales taxes on precious metals…

Good Day..  And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals went and did the dirty deed, and it wasn’t done cheap! They got shut out for the 3^rd consecutive game by the Pirates! After sweeping the Indians, I mean the Guardians, they get swept by the Pirates! See why I say this team is so frustrating at times?  Yesterday’s game was a day game, you know they kind I like!, so that meant I had nothing to do with myself last night, Kathy was out for the evening, and so I went outside and read until it got dark… That was a good time of day to be out, as th sun had set and the temps were dropping.. Not much, but dropping nonetheless… Steely Dan greets me this morning with their great song: Do It Again… 

Well, the dollar selling stopped yesterday, but there was no dollar buying either, so it was a wash of a day for the dollar… I think that today’s trading could go one of two ways… The first way is that the selling continues, and with skeleton crews manning trading desk, this could get to be a real ugly day for the dollar… Or, the jobs jamboree is miraculously strong, and the dollar rallies with traders knowing that the fed is going to wet their powder this month.  Or, and here’s a third possibility, and that is that there’s no one on the trading desks to make a difference, and the dollar does nothing again today…  Got that? I sure hope so, because I got confused typing it all up! HA! 

The euro inched higher in the 1.17 handle yesterday, and came within spitting distance reaching the 1.18 handle again… 

The price of Gold was allowed to gain yesterday by the short paper traders, although the short paper traders did test the Gold trader’s mettle…  But soon found that the Gold traders had the physical buyers ready and waiting to buy, and the SPT’s decided to go home… Gold gained $20 yesterday and closed at $3,358….  And Silver saw the same kind of action and gained 64-cents to close at $36.61… The Price of remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield drop a couple o basis points to yield 4.26%

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar drifted around a bit last night but in the end, it starts today in the same clothes it wore yesterday, with the BBDXY at 1,189…  Gold starts today down $14, but Silver starts today up a shiny quarter!  The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and trades this morning with a $67 handle… It looks like the cease fire in Israel / Iran is holding, and that takes the worry out of the price of Oil… And the 10-year Treasury remains trading with a 4.26% yield this morning… So far that is, as we all await the Jobs Jamboree jobs created report for June, that will, I’m certain, contain some jobs created out of thin air, but how many will be the question… 

I read a report this past weekend that I just now remembered that I wanted to talk about… UGH!  The report was about how Hungary has shifted it’s favored trading partner from the U.S. to China… I’m just the POTUS was screaming at the walls when he was told that!  Well, Mr. POTUS, you’ve got to get those interest rates lower, so the dollar continues this march to a long-term weak trend… When you figure out how to kick Jerome Powell out the door and implant your yes man, Mr. Bessent, in his place things will get much easier! Just giving some help to the POTUS!

And it’s not just Hungary that has shifted their trade agreements to… With all the chaos going on, the war in the Middle East, and Ukraine,  and after just going through a period of cycle-wise highs in inflation.. .The rest of the word is looking for some place that is calm, and the doesn’t have problems like those hanging over the heads… I read where The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from around 70% in the early 2000s to below 60%. Some estimates place it as low as 48%.   It’s called de-dollarization, and it seems to be catching on… 

It’s not a laughing matter folks… The Central Banks around the world know what’s going on here in the U.S. and the dollar is long for a weak trend, and they are just attempting to get ahead of rush to the dollar’s exit door… 

And that brings me to the question… How’s your investment portfolio diversification going? Or better yet… Got Gold?  The first weak dollar trend started in 1971, and went through the 70’s until 1979, and volcker’s rare hikes brought dollar buyers back…  The dollar has gone through a few trends since Nixon set it free in August 1971…  I used to show these trends on slides when I used to give presentations at conferences… I think they went like this: 1971-1979 weak dollar trend (WDT) 1979 – 1986 Strong dollar trend (SDT), In 1985 finance ministers met at the Plaza Hotel in NYC, and decided that the dollar was too strong, and came out with what was called the Plaza Accord..  So, in 1986 we started the next WDT, and that ended in 1,994 when then Sec. Treasury Robert Rubin began telling the markets that “a strong dollar is in the best interest of the U.S.” and that strong trend ended in 2002… When it was first discovered that the U.S. was running debts and printing money… That WDT lasted until 2013, when the debts of the Eurozone were discovered, and the PIIGS were named…  And the SDT that began in 2013 remained in place even through the Financial meltdown of 2007&8, until this year… That’s when I first noticed cracks in the dollar’s armor… I had seen these cracks a few times in the past, but they proved to be false dawns… But this one is different, and I do believe the dollar has begun its trek through a Weak Dollar Trend…  Whew! My fat fingers need a break after typing all of that! 

I’ve long thought that when the Euro Wannabes rally then the dollar is in trouble…  The Euro Wannabes are: Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Check Republic koruna… I’ve added another currency to the ones I watch for indication that the dollar is in real trouble and that is the Chinese renminbi…  And I don’t know if you have noticed the renminbi has been getting allowed to gain VS the dollar… But it is!  So, go check the currency round up out… Go ahead, skip ahead I won’t mind… but make sure you come back!

Circling back to Gold  & Silver this morning…  this from Kitco.com ” In an interview with Kitco News, Ryan McIntyre, Senior Managing Partner at Sprott, said that while he remains bullish on gold, he is currently paying a bit more attention to silver in the near term.

McIntyre’s bullish outlook comes as the gold/silver ratio trades below 92, down sharply from April’s multi-year highs above 100. Spot silver last traded at $36.40 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day. Meanwhile, spot gold last traded at $3,344.28 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day.”

See how fickle traders are? Gold stumbles out of the gate in June for its traditional June Swoon, and all the attention shifts to Silver… What have you done for me lately? Is a trader’s mantra…  One of my first speaking engagements was in Phoenix Arizona, and I followed a woman who painted a very scary picture of traders and how fickle they are… I got up on stage and told people that I was a trader and I would bet that they would like to invite me to dinner!  I got a big laugh out of that from the crowd, and it relieved all the metal pressure that came from my first speaking engagement… 

Well, Florida joined the list of states yesterday that have removed sales tax from the sale of metals… Good for you Florida! There was another state that had announced this same result earlier in the week, but for some reason I can’t remember who that was… The point is that the states are making it easier to accumulate Gold & Silver and not worry about being taxed when you pass it down to your kids, and they decide to sell it because they don’t want to deal with storing it..   Sad scenario, right?  I hope this doesn’t happen to any of you! 

I had a meeting yesterday with my wealth advisor, who’s retiring… And the thought came to me of how many of the professionals in my life have retired… I’ve had 2 oncologists retire, a handy man I used retired, 1 PCP retire, and now 1 wealth advisor… I guess it just shows that I’m getting old… UGH!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday day had the ADP Employment Report, and it showed that the economy lost 33,000 jobs in June… Wait, What? Our strong and resilient country (according to the Feds) lost 33,000 jobs in a month where all the grads were finding jobs? Well, today’s Data Cupboard has the Jobs Jamboree for June and unless the BLS adds 10’s of thousands of jobs to the surveys to dress up the report, a very weak labor report would push the Fed Heads to cut rates later this month… 

So, why’s Gold down this morning?  Short paper traders… easy question to answer… 

To recap… The dollar continued to drift lower yesterday and last night… Traders are thinning out ahead of the Holiday Weekend, and no one wants to make a call on the direction of the dollar with the Jobs Jamboree coming up very soon this morning… Chuck goes through the dollar trends in our history since Nixon pulled the dollar off of the Gold backing in August 1971…  

For What It’s Worth… I found this article this morning, yes I get up quite early, and thought it was FWIW worthy, as its about where this fellow thinks Gold & Silver are going… spoiler alert, he thinks they are going to soar… And it can be found here: Why gold revaluation charts put prices at $25,000-$55,000 if history rhymes, silver poised for breakout: Crescat Capital Strategist | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Speaking at the PDAC 2025 conference in Toronto, Costa told Kitco News that historical comparisons suggest a dramatic revaluation of gold could be in store.

Costa highlighted his firm’s recent report, which examines the potential for gold prices to reach extraordinary levels if the U.S. were to revalue its gold inventory relative to outstanding Treasuries.

“To me, it comes down to the treasury. How much treasuries are outstanding out there – 36 trillion. How much do we own of gold?” Costa stated.

Currently, the value of U.S. gold reserves is about 2% of those Treasuries outstanding, compared to roughly 17% in the 1970s and close to 40% in the 1940s.

“And if we’re going to go back to the 17%, it takes us back to $25,000 dollars an ounce, or if we go back to the 40%, it’s close to $55,000 an ounce,” Costa explained, noting that these are not price targets but serve to illustrate the potential for significant valuation shifts.

He pointed out that central banks have been accumulating gold at 50-year highs since the global financial crisis, while U.S. gold reserves are at their lowest levels in 90 years. This divergence, Costa suggests, could pressure the U.S. to reconsider its gold policy.”

Chuck again… that is the wildest forecast for the price of Gold folks, so take it with a grain of salt, but remember that things are crazy these days, so a crazy price isn’t out of the realm of imagination… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/3/2025: American Style: A$ .6574, kiwi .6069, C$ .7361, euro 1.1791, Swiss $1.2602, European Style: rand 17.5191, krone 10.0711, SEK 9.6471, forint 338.94, zloty 3.5041, koruna 20.9049, RUB 78.79, yen 143.88, sing 1.2733, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.31, China 7.1609, peso 18.76, BRL 5.4248, BBDXY 1,189.60, Dollar Index 96.80, Oil $67.30, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $36.86, Platinum $1,381.00, Palladium $1,151.00, Copper $5.18, and Gold… $3.345

That’s it for today… Well, The BLS just printed the Jobs number for June, and they say the economy added 147,000 jobs…  OK, the ADP says we lost 33,000, and the BLS says we added 147,000… The difference here is too great to attribute it to a rounding error… I’m of the opinion that this result will give the short paper traders the opportunity to take Gold down further… Watch out for that… look for buying opportunities… Well, tomorrow we, as a country, celebrate our Independence Day… This was always a BIG Day at the Butler House where I grew up… The BBQ pit smoking and smelling great, friends and family dropping by, and my dad shooting off fireworks in the alley… Great Memories… OK, enough Simon And Garfunkel take us to the finish line today with their catchy song: Cecilia…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please try to Be Good To Yourself!!

Chuck Butler

• currenc8es and Gold find their way higher VS the dollar
• The Big Beautiful Bill passes the Senate…

 Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Last night’s game was a real ho-hummer, a pitchers’ duel, with my beloved Cardinals losing for the second night VS the Pirates… UGH! Every time the team seems to get close to the division lead, they go on a losing streak! This is very frustrating! I had to go back to the eye surgeon yesterday for a check on how I was doing… He told me to take care of my right eye, without glasses on, and actually suggested that I get some clear glasses, so that my eye is protected… I told him that I was just getting used to being without glasses! Oh well, I’ve learned one thing through all my health journeys and that is to listen to the doctor!  Ian Gomm greets me this morning with his song: Hold On… 

Well, the dollar bears took a breather yesterday, and rested and only took the dollar down 1 index point in the BBDXY… The euro slipped below the 1.18 handle, and the rest of the currencies just kind of drifted… Gold started the day on the right foot, and continued to move upward on the day, by $34 to close at $3,338… Silver wasn’t allowed to gain yesterday and saw its early morning gain turn into loss of 34-cents to close at $35.99… 

The price of Oil remained above the $65 all day yesterday and ended the day at $65.50… The 10-year Treasury keeps getting bought and its yield just keeps dropping… The yield on the bond closed yesterday trading with a 4.25% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar continued to drift lower by 1 index point in the BBDXY, and starts today, that will contain some real economic data prints, at 1,188… Gold is flat to up a buck this morning and starts the day at 3,339, while Silver rebounds from yesterday’s sell off that was fueled by the short paper traders, and Silver starts today at $36.31… 

Th price of Oil bumped higher overnight and starts today trading with a $66 handle… It seems the chaos in the Middle East has calmed a bit, and the markets have moved past this scenario and are looking for something new to bite on…  Markets are like that, folks… While the tension and saber rattling may still be high, the markets will move on from the area and look for something new… 

And that new, is looking like it’s going to be centered around rate cuts in the U.S.  The bond boys know it, Lola knows it, and now you do too!  Speaking of bonds, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond finally saw some selling yesterday, and the yield rose to 4.25% and then added some additional yield to the bond overnight to start the day today at 4.29% yield…  Were the Fed Heads in buying earlier this week and that’s what caused the yield to drop?  I would imagine so, they (Fed Heads) don’t like it when the markets get ahead of their rate decisions…  But they’re too late, it’s already happened… 

Circling back to Gold for a moment… I have to apologize for jinxing Gold yesterday, saying that June was over and so was Gold’s June Swoon…  I should know better than to say something like that out loud…  I must have had a Senior moment! Like the one I had yesterday evening, when my good friend and neighbor, Dewey, honked at me as he drove by and I was sitting on the porch glider… And then about an hour later sent him a text and asked if he was in town?   What A DOLT! 

And this came from my looking for FWIW articles yesterday.. Reuters said, “Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its projection for U.S. interest rates in 2025 to three-quarter-point cuts because of muted tariff effects and labor market weakness.

The Wall Street brokerage expects rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October and December. It had earlier projected a single 25 bp rate cut this year.”

Longtime readers know that I refer to Goldman Sachs as Lola.. As in what Lola wants, Lola gets… And I wouldn’t argue with Lola on this one, because if Lola says there will be 3 rate cuts this year, there will be 3 rate cuts this year… I’m just saying… 

Remember the Fed Heads began cutting rates last year before their inflation target of 2% was met…  The inflation rate neared 2% and the Fed Heads went ahead and tried to beat the calls for rates… Sort of like an Oklahoma Sooner… not the University teams name, but the actual Sooner… Don’t know the story behind that? I suggest you file a suit on your history teacher! 

Lola’s viewpoint is that the tariffs have not caused any pain in the economy… And trust me when I tell you this, but Lola has probably got 100’s of economists on their payroll..  And I’m just a lonely boy, who sits in his basement at his computer and does research on the economy…  All by myself! And I don’t believe that 3 rate cuts this year will help the economy… I’m just saying… 

But what 3 rate cuts will do or should do is become the next kind of fuel to power Gold’s rise… Lola also said that they think the Fed Heads will cut rates 2 more times in 2026!  

The Big Beautiful Bill passed in the Senate yesterday with the deciding vote by the VP to break the tie… It now goes to the House… I realize that the tax cuts that present will remain that way if the Bill gets passed, but… The debt will increase even faster than the Debt Clock has forecast… And the Debt Clock has the debt increasing to $46 Trillion in 4 years…   And in 8 years it has the debt increasing to $57 Trillion…  I seriously don’t believe we’ll get to $57 Trillion without a financial system breakdown, so don’t get your heart set on having a $57 Trillion Debt…  At that figure of $57 Trillion, the debt per Taxpayer would be $428,331   Now, you can make that check out to the U.S. Treasury…   And you had better be putting some Gold in your piggy bank because when you add in the unfunded liabilities the debt per taxpayer will rise to $1,206,254…   

Ok, enough of that debt talk Chuck, you’ve done this talk for over 30 years now, and back when you started talking about the deficit/ debt it was only $4 Trillion and the Budget Deficit was only around $700 Billion…   And I’ve written about each and everyone of the increases… Shoot Rudy the U.S. Debt was $20 Trillion in 2016, and look what 9 years has done to that figure!

You know that most of the countries around the world have a debt problem too, but only Japan has one bigger than the U.S. And then we don’t really care about their problems, do we? We have our problems to deal with, and brother are these problems!

Counties like Singapore, Russia, Norway and few others have little to no debt, and yet their currencies are held hostage by the dollar… Amazing isn’t it?

And this final thought.. From Bloomberg.com: “The US Dollar Index has fallen about 10.8% year-to-date, compared with a 14.8% slump in the first half of 1973”

Old timers like me, will recall that once Nixon took the backing of Gold from the dollar in August 1971, that the dollar went on a long-term weak trend, that lasted until then Fed Chairman Volcker began hiking rates to the moon… So, anytime we can compare today with the 70’s regarding the dollar, that’s what I think of…  And back in the day, the BBDXY wasn’t created yet, so we all depended on the Dollar Index, which was more important in those days, before European countries turned their respective currencies into the euro… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the June ISM (manufacturing index) and I had said that it would remain below the 50 level that denotes any number below it has a manufacturing sector that’s contracting… well, the June number was below 50, but it has risen a bit from May and now sits at 49%… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report for June… I would assume that this data set will reflect all the grads getting new jobs in June, and it would show a better than May report which was only 37,000 jobs created in May… We will see the Jobs Jamboree a day earlier than normal tomorrow, because Friday is a holiday…  You know just that little old Independence Day Holiday, July 4! 

To recap… The dollar continued to get sold yesterday, but at a much slower pace and the BBDXY only lost 1 index point on the day… Gold and Silver’s early morning gains were erased by the short paper traders, and Chuck apologizes for jinxing Gold yesterday… The Big Beautiful Bill passed the Senate yesterday, by one vote, and now goes to the Senate, and while it does keep the tax cuts we received in 2016 in place it also adds a large amount of debt… I don’t even want to talk about how much more debt it will cause, I’m becoming Comfortably Numb (Pink Floyd)  with the debt numbers… UGH!

For What it’s Worth… I was sent this article by Matthew Piepenburg on Monday, and finally got it in today’s FWIW… This is about Gold and it can be found here: Too Late to Buy Gold? Not Even Close… The snippet is a long one today, so grab that cup-o-Joe, and lets’ get to this! 

Or, here’s your snippet: “Many are wondering if it’s too late to buy gold, that gold has peaked, and they have missed their opportunity.

Too Late to Buy Gold? Not Even Close…

We hope the below series of facts, figures and common-sense reality-checks will put such fears squarely to rest, as gold’s role, price direction and days are only just beginning.

A Light House in the Fog

In a world of geopolitical tensions, can-kicking monetary fantasies, falling bombs, rising debt, discredited leadership, impotent summits, weaponized trade and a comically discredited media narrative, it’s hard to find a lighthouse in such fog.

Even with the world closest to the brink of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis, the markets, forever certain that a lifeboat of mega liquidity is just one crisis away, churned Titanically forward with no ice berg fears.

VON GREYERZ advisor, Ronnie Stoeferle, sarcastically described the recent S&P, NASDAQ and NVIDIA behavior as being almost like that of a Zen monk.

But there’s nothing “Zen” about these markets, times, currencies or financial systems. And there’s certainly nothing “Zen” about the once-sacred 10Y UST…

How do we know this? How have we always known this?

In short, what has been our lighthouse?

The answer is as simple as it timeless, indestructible, and honest: Gold.

The Quiet Accumulation Phase

Unlike politicians scrambling for power like donkeys fighting for hay (Chamfort) and squawking threats, promises and miracle solutions for one more X follower, vote or concession, sophisticated gold investors—from generational family offices, portfolio managers and sovereign wealth funds to eastern central banks and even the IMF and BIS—have been quietly accumulating gold at unprecedented levels.

For the last 3 years (since the US foolishly weaponized the world reserve currency), central banks have been annually accumulating over 1000 tons of gold.

Average central bank gold stacking has skyrocketed from 118 tons (pre-2022), to over 290 tons per/bank/year post weaponization.

In short, despite all the fog, squawking, speculating and debating, precious metal investors have been watching what gold does rather than listening to what failed policy makers and systems are saying.

The Unofficial Reserve Currency

Nassim Taleb bluntly said the quiet part out loud in a recent Bloomberg interview, namely that gold is effectively becoming the unofficial global reserve currency.”

Chuck again… if you clicked on the link above, you found that the article goes on… And is chock-full-o-charts…  But I thank Matthew Piepenburg for his article! 

Market Prices 7/2/2025: American Style: A$.6555, kiwi .6059, C$ .7328, euro 1.1752, sterling 1.3649, Swiss $1.2597, European Style: rand 17.5884, krone 10.1108, SEK 9.5323, forint 339.52, zloty 3.6168, koruna 20.9870, RUB 78.61, yen 144.17, sing 1.2748, HKD 7.8499, INR 85.70, China 7.1692, peso 18.75, BRL 5.4762, BBDXY 1,1188, Dollar Index 96.73, Oil $66.33, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $36.31, Platinum $1,395.00, Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $5.12, and Gold… $3,339

That’s it for today… Well, today is two days before the 4^th of July… Our country’s Independence Day… Individuals shooting off fireworks is illegal in the country I live in, but that hasn’t stopped people from doing so to celebrate our Independence! Just be careful out there… Day game today from Pittsburgh, C’mon Cardinals you’ve got to pull one win out the series! In past years, I would be outside in my tiki bar watching the day game, with a few of my pals… But the TV shot the craps this year, and I haven’t replaced it yet, basically it’s been too darn hot to sit outside…  The Band Spirit takes us to the finish line today with their song: Nature’s Way…  I have a personal connection to this song, so I love it when it comes up… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday. And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Monday as the dollar gets sold…
• All the Precious Metals are on the rally tracks!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  And welcome to July… Pfennig tradition calls for this:  There I was on a July morning; I was looking for love….  (Uriah Heep) Well, after starting the 9-game road trip 3-0, my beloved Cardinals bats went into cold storage last night in Pittsburgh… UGH! Is the POTUS going to replace the Fed Chair soon? The dollar is really reeling, have you diversified your investment portfolio yet? There’s still time, no worries… These questions and more await your participation in reading this morning, while as Eric Carmen greets me this morning with his song: All By Myself… 

The dollar started drifting lower in the morning yesterday, but the selling really picked up, especially when it was reported that the POTUS wants to replace the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, with his Treasury Sec. Bessent…  Now, the question would be has the Fed lost its independence (supposedly)?   Here’s the Hill.com with a comment from Bessent: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday he’d be open to replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as President Trump looks to replace the central bank chief as soon as possible.

Asked if it’s a job he would want to do, Bessent said he would comply with Trump’s wishes” So, if you want to know what’s pushing the dollar down so rapidly? It’s the idea that if the POTUS’s yes man was in the FOMC chairing the committee, that lower interest rates would be on the way…  Trump has been quoted as saying that he wants a cheaper dollar, so that exports have a chance… And he’s always been a low rates kind of guy, so how do you get a cheaper dollar? You debase the heck out of it! 

Gold also took advantage of the news at hand, and rallied to the tune of $32, to close the day at $3,304… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and gained 19-cents to close the day at $36.11…  Well, it’s now July… so Gold’s June Swoon is over… at least I would hope it is… 

The price of Oil slid back to trade with a $64 handle, and the 10-year Treasury bond, stayed in neutral yesterday and ended the day with a 4.28% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night, it was more of the same, as the dollar continued to get sold, Gold & Silver rallied, and bonds got bought…  Here’s the skinny on all that… The BBDXY starts today at 1,186, down 4 index points from yesterday’s close in the U.S. I’ll get into why the dollar is being treated like a rental car in a bit, but first, Gold is back on the rally tracks as it has gained $44 overnight and starts today trading at $3,349… And Silver joins Gold on the rally tracks having gained 44-cents overnight, and starts today trading at $36.47… 

The price of Oil bumped back to the $65 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield plummeted to 4.20%… So, what’s causing all this dollar selling and bond buying, along with metals?  

Well, how about the slide the dollar is on? And where’s the PPT? I think when I imagined the POTUS telling the PPT to stay on the sidelines, I really didn’t think that would happen, but as time goes on… Maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know! (Andujar)  In fact, this slippage by the dollar has been the worst to start a year since 1973! And a weaker dollar means stronger currencies… even those that struggle from time to time to garner attention from traders get a dart thrown at it when the dollar struggles for more than just a couple of days… 

And another Sword of Damocles hangs over the dollar, in the form of Inflation… Inflation eats away at disposable income, and causes the economy to stagnate…  And what have I told you many times in the past is what causes inflation?  Money Supply…  This from MoneyMetals.com “Despite the prevailing notion that the Federal Reserve has implemented “tight” monetary policy, the money supply has expanded by more than $600 billion since its low point in mid-2023.

Based on the “true,” or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS), the money supply expanded by 2.2 percent year-over-year in April. That was up from a 1.4 percent increase in March.

On a month-on-month basis, the money supply grew 0.6 percent from March to April. Over the past year, it has increased month over month during eight of the 12 months.”

Chuck again…  Lower rates, climbing inflation, all responsible for the weaker dollar, and should be responsible for a rallying Gold price. And don’t forget the chaos going on right now, and that old reliable Debt… Which is currently at $37 Trillion! You know, the last year that I spoke at the Vancouver Symposium I put up a slide to show the crowd that the current debt then was equal to $50,000 per person… That was in 2016… The current debt is now equal to $108,085 per person, and the Debt Clock has a new column and tells us that the debt is now equal to $323, 052 per Taxpayer! Which is probably the way I should report this going forward… 

And circling back to Gold & Silver, and my pleading with people to back up the truck and load up on metals, got a boost from a note I received that said that Premiums on the metals are down… not just by a little, but by a lot! In the past, premiums were so high that to fabricate your pooled Gold or Silver, was about priced out… But, no longer folks… So, what are you waiting for now? 

And if you want confirmation of that here’s something I found on Kitco.com this morning: “according to Joseph Wu, Vice President and Portfolio Manager at RBC Wealth Management. Wu said that correctly identifying gold’s price drivers has always been difficult. “Yet one relationship that has held up reasonably well over the past 25 years is gold’s inverse correlation with real interest rates,” he said.

And just a reminder that “real interest rates” are the current rate minus inflation, which would put the U.S. real interest rate at 1.50%…  So, there’s your confirmation! 

And I don’t want to miss talking about the other Precious Metals… Copper, Platinum and Palladium…  These 3 metals have all been on the rally tracks… In Copper, the shortage of the metal is driving the price upward, and Platinum along with Palladium are taking advantage of the weak dollar… 

Last week I had a dear reader send me a note and ask me what was going on with the Norwegian krone, as it has lagged its kissin’ cousin, krona in Sweden…  Well, I explained that the krone is held hostage by the price of Oil and the price of the euro… When both are moving in the right direction, the krone rallies, and when they are spit, like now, the krone is pulled in two directions, and struggles to rally, but the pull from the euro will win out…  But you need to be patient… 

I also received a note from a dear reader that wanted to send me his newly issued book…  Well, I’m reading it now, and it’s good!  Its title is: The Little Book of Buying Precious Metals (The right way and how) by Ronald Caparro…  And it’s available on Amazon, so there you go! If you haven’t already bought metals, here’s your guide… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the June ISM (manufacturing index) which has been in the contraction side of the ledger for some time now, and I would expect for it to remain on the contraction side… 

To recap… The dollar is slip sliding away… and there has been no sign of the PPT, and Chuck is wondering if his idea that the PPT was told to cool their heels, really occured? Gold ended its June Swoon, yesterday by gaining $32 on the last day of the month… The euro is climbing faster than a hit song, and bringing the rest of the currencies along for the rides… Chuck explains what’s going on with the krone, and gives a review of a new book… 

For What It’s Worth… A week or so ago, I told you about how Germany and Italy had made requests/ demands to the U.S. to repatriate their physical Gold holdings…  This is an interview with a German Parliament member who talks of this and more and it can be found here: Why central banks are pulling gold from the U.S. – and why it started in Germany | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” A quiet repatriation campaign launched by Germany more than a decade ago has now evolved into a global rethink of who controls sovereign wealth. Peter Boehringer, the architect of Germany’s gold repatriation program, says what started as a debate in one Parliament is now playing out in central banks around the world.

“I started this in 2007. For many years, I was the only one asking these questions in Parliament,” Boehringer told Kitco News. “It took six years to get an answer, and we only got moving in 2013. We brought back 674 Tonnes – that was a success. But I wanted all of it back.”

Between 2013 and 2017, Germany moved 300 Tonnes of gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and 374 Tonnes from the Banque de France back to Frankfurt. The operation was one of the largest physical gold transfers by a sovereign since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.

“We did not even get the original bars back,” Boehringer said. “They were melted and replaced. We had to accept that. But Fort Knox? Not even an audit in decades. It’s unacceptable.”

“The truth is, we trusted the dollar system after World War II because we had no choice,” Boehringer said. “But it’s no longer just about trust. It’s about control. If your reserves are abroad, you don’t really own them.”

That view is now reflected in broader trends. A new 2025 survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) found that 70% of central banks say U.S. political instability is discouraging dollar holdings, up from 37% last year. One in three reserve managers plan to increase gold allocations in the next two years, with 40% planning to do so over the next decade.

“The central banks have failed not only economically, but morally,” Boehringer said. “We are printing money out of thin air. There is no solid foundation. The whole fiat system is not sustainable. We need something physical again.”

Spot gold is currently trading around $3,330 an ounce, up 27% year-to-date, according to Bloomberg data. Boehringer credited gold’s performance to global central bank demand, monetary debasement, and a growing awareness of “custodial risk.”

“We were once a country of monetary prudence,” Boehringer said. “Now we are debasing like everyone else. The debt brake is in the constitution, but it gets ignored. There’s no willpower.”

Germany holds 3,352 Tonnes of gold, making it the world’s second-largest official holder after the U.S. The Bundesbank says that as of 2023, 50.5% of that total is now stored in Frankfurt, with the rest in New York and London.

Bitcoin is sometimes cited as an alternative reserve asset. But Boehringer, a long-standing libertarian, was cautious.

“Bitcoin is interesting. I like the idea behind it. But it’s not a sovereign reserve asset,” he said. “Central banks will never trust something they can’t control.”

Chuck again… I know, I know that was a log one, but I liked it a lot, so there was that! 

Market Prices for 7/1/2025: American Style: A$.6582, kiwi .6111, C$ .7347, euro 1.1811, sterling 1.3768, Swiss $1.2674, European Style: rand 17.5845, krone 10.0204, SEK 9.4391, forint 337.88, zloty 3.5912, koruna 20.8918, RUB 78.46, yen 142.82, sing 1.2708, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.55, China 7.1620, peso 18.66, BRL 5.4376, BBDXY 1,186, Dollar Index 96.51, Oil $65.57, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $36.47, Platinum $1,360.00, Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $5.14, and Gold… $3,349

That’s it for today…  Baseball is fickle… one day the team hits like the 1927 Yankees, and the next day they struggle to not get no-hit! I’ll go back to the eye doctor today, so he can look at his handiwork…  I don’t like having to put glasses on just to read, but when you only have one eye, they can’t alternate far and close distances… And I’ll take what I’ve got happily, for I can see clearly now the rain has gone (Nash) and colors are so much more vivid! Hang on to your hats for the next announcement from the POTUS…  Bill Withers takes us to the finish line today with his song: Lovely Day…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies rally big time on Friday and overnight
• 3 rate cuts? no wonder the dollar is in the dumps…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  And a late Happy Birthday to my little buddy, who isn’t so little any longer! Alex turned 30 on Saturday… I’m still trying to figure out how that happened! Well, after two games where the Cardinals flexed their muscles, they went silent in the last two game VS the Cubs and ended up splitting the 4-game series… So, no ground was gained by my beloved Cardinals… UGH! They righted the ship and swept the series VS the Indians, I mean the Guardians… I’m a tradition person, and I can’t get used to calling these teams that cowed to the PC folks, their new names… I just don’t get it… 10CC greet me this morning with their song: Dreadlock Holiday…

The U.S. dollar continued to get sold into the weekend… On Thursday last week, the BBDXY fell below 1,200, all the way down to 1,194… A 9 index point loss from Wednesday. And on Friday, it didn’t get any love, but the selling abated for one day..

The euro skated through the 1.16 handle and traded into the 1.17 handle on Friday last week.. This is a 10-year low for the dollar, and without PPT protection, the dollar looks to drop even more, soon…  So, how is that diversification in your investment portfolio looking now? Wait, What, you never diversified back in the day when I used to tell you to do so? Well, it’s not too late to do so, especially if the dollar has entered a long-term weak trend… Which, I do believe it has… but then that’s just me…

Gold lost $5 on Thursday, but on Friday, it got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair… This makes no sense to me… sure Gold usually goes on June Swoon, but not like this! Gold ended the week at $3,272,after getting sold $53 on Friday and Silver closed the week at $35.92, after getting sold 66-cents on Friday… UGH! 

Gold starts the week below $3,300 at $3,279 up $5 this morning.  I read a piece on Kitco.com this morning that called for Gold to remain under $3,300 this week… Why they decided on this week as the focal data, is beyond me… But it’s the June Swoon, that Gold normally goes though… And Wall St. is a so “what have you done for me lately?” crowd, that now they say they are no longer bullish on Gold…  Well, let them sell their positions, they’ll be sorry they did so at year end… I’m just saying… 

Individual investors like you and me, should be looking to buy Gold at cheaper prices…  Silver is up 5-cents, a plug nickel this morning, and starts the week at $35.97… The same story here as Gold… so no need to repeat it…  The price of Oil stabilized a bit over the weekend, as the cease-fire held, and starts the week trading with a $65 handle…  And the buying in the 10-year hasn’t stopped, and the 10-year Treasury bond starts the week at 4.28%.. 

Circling back to the gains that the euro has made during this selloff of the dollar… Once again, the euro proves my theory on the currency, and that is that the euro can rally when the dollar is getting sold, even if the economic data from the Eurozone is iffy…  Last week, the euro zone economy flatlined for a second month in June as the bloc’s dominant services industry showed only a small sign of improvement and manufacturing displayed none at all, a survey showed on Monday.  

And sterling has been on the rally tracks too… And this despite a slowing labor market, and their new orders data only showed a slim expansion for the first time this year… Pound sterling is more closely tied to the conflict in the Middle East, and that should keep the pound sterling from going all hog-wild VS the dollar.. 

The dollar isn’t getting any love from the Fed Heads… Michelle Bowman, the Fed Head that’s the Vice Chairman for supervision, was spouting about rate cuts, and how the economy is in need of such rate cuts… The futures markets have now priced in 3 rate cuts before end of year… And that, my friends, is a BIG reason the dollar is getting sold right now… 

And should be the reason Gold is rallying, but Gold isn’t rallying, and instead is seeing some strong selling… I read this weekend that U.S. investors are selling Gold, while their Asian counterparts, are buying Gold…  And that brings me to my thought that U.S. investors treat Gold like a commodity that should be bought and sold like stocks… And the Asian investors treat Gold as a store of value and wealth, like it should be treated…  I wish that more than you dear Pfennig Readers would hear that… Because I’m singing to the choir here, instead of spreading the Gospel! 

 The U.S. Data Cupboard had a print last Thursday that was greatly exaggerated.. Here’s MarketWatch: ” Orders for long-lasting goods skyrocketed 16% in May to mark the biggest increase in 11 years, but the headline number was exaggerated by a flush of new Boeing contracts that masked ongoing weakness in business investment.”

So, once again the markets failed to look under the hood at the data prints, and took the report as gospel, and traded accordingly…  And on Friday last week, The PCE, the Fed Heads preferred inflation calc, rose on an annual basis to 2.7%… But Gold got whacked? Now tell me again why you don’t believe that Gold is manipulated… 

And finally on data… The 2^nd revision of 1^st QTR GDP came in .5% lower than the last revision… Now, if you have a great memory, you’ll recall that when the 1^st print of 1^st QTR GDP printed, I said that it would eventually be downsized…  And it has been! No worries, I’m not slapping myself on the back this was as easy of a call to make as making a layup!   Here’s Bill Bonner on his take of this report:

“Does it make any difference? Maybe not. GDP figures are largely meaningless or misleading. They don’t tell you much that is useful. And what they pretend to tell you is mostly fraudulent.”

Yeah, he’s right about that… As I always remind you about GDP makeup is that it includes Gov’t spending… So, when you add in Gov’t spending, and the result is still negative, just how negative would it have been it you took our Gov’t Spending? The economy is in shambles folks… I’m just saying… 

In the U.S. Data Cupboard this week, will be a couple of real economic data prints, but none today… On Wednesday we’ll see the ADP Employment Report… one that I still think should be used for labor reporting purposes…  And then on Friday this week we’ll have the Jobs Jamboree for June… Recall that May’s jobs only showed an increase of 37,000… June jobs should be better than that as the grads enter the work arena… 

To recap rout on the dollar continued into the weekend and then took up again last night.  The euro is trading over $1.17 to start the week, and the rest of the currencies, including the Chinese renminbi are all following the Big Dog’s lead… Gold is in its traditional June Swoon, and Wall St. doesn’t know the history, and has given up the ghost on Gold… They’ll be sorry…  And Saturday was Alex’s 30^th birthday, how many of you remember when he was 3 and would sit on my lap while I wrote the Pfennig from home, and his input would look like this: @#$%^7

I came across this from Bloomberg.com last week, and it will be our FWIW article today…This is about how China is seizing the current situation in the U.S. as an excellent time to promote the usage of their currency, and it can be found here: CNY/USD: China Seizes Moment to Globalize Yuan as Dollar Doubts Mount – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “China is launching a sweeping campaign to promote the yuan’s global role, seizing what officials see as a rare strategic opening.

With the dollar facing multiple challenges, Beijing is accelerating its long-standing campaign to reduce global reliance on the world’s reserve currency. What sets the latest push apart is timing: Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in years to promote the yuan.

The latest measures aim to not just facilitate trade but also open China’s financial markets and embed the yuan more deeply in investment flows. They include easing capital controls, expanding cross-border payment systems, and launching new financial products to attract foreign investors. Beijing’s hope is that a more internationalized yuan may reshape trade and global finance and challenge the dollar’s dominance in reserve portfolios.

“The measures to further integrate China with the global financial system feel like steps in the right direction, as China wants to make sure that the yuan is in the conversation of important global currencies,” Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank NV, said.”

Chuck again…  This is what I would have expected the Chinese to do several years ago, but as the saying goes… Better late than never! And this plays well in the sand box with my call that one day we’ll see the Chinese renminbi as one of the reserve currencies, as I feel that in the future, we’ll have zones of reserve currencies… 

Market Prices 6/30/2025: American Style: A$ .6532, kiwi .6063, C$ .7316, euro 1.1725, sterling 1. 3704, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.7579, krone 10.0971, SEK 9.5007, forint 340.16, zloty 3.6168, koruna 21.1027, RUB 78.47, yen 144.32, sing 1.2745, HKD 7.8500, INR 86.76, China 7.1647, peso 18.83, BRL 5.4867, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 97.19, Oil $65.23, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $35.97, Platinum $1,362.00, Palladium $1,170.00, Copper $5.08, and Gold… $3,379

That’s it for today… So… I guess you figured it out that my one remaining eye surgery went well, or I wouldn’t have been able to write this morning… I was scared to death when the surgery was over, and everything was black… I couldn’t see a thing! Oh no! My deepest fears were coming true! I told the surgeon that I couldn’t see, and he told me to relax, that the sight would come back soon… And it did! I can see 20/20 now out of that eye and only need reading glasses to read.  Now, I’ll have to get used to looking in the mirror and seeing me without glasses! Thanks to all who sent along good wishes and said prayers… I truly appreciate all the support! Hamilton, Joe, Frank, and Reynolds take us to the finish line this morning with their one hit wonder song: Fallin’ In Love… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler