Author: admin

• currencies get sold on Wednesday…
• We have a new minister of lies for the BLS

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I know, I know, I told you there would be no Pennig on Thursday, but after a review of my schedule, I determined that I could get “something” to you today before I have to leave for the hospital for my infusion… The Cardinals found yet another way, to lose a game yesterday… Tsk, Tsk…  I sat outside to read yesterday, but had to have the umbrella up to provide shade as it was a hot one! I had to say to myself, of course it’s hot Chuck, it’s August in St. Louis! Gerry & The Pacemakers greet me this morning with their song: Ferry Cross The Mersey… Whenever that song comes on, my mind goes back to when son Alex was just a toddler, and I would rock him to sleep every night, while singing that song to him… 

Well, the dollar gained back the 2 index points it had lost in the overnight markets on Tuesday… So, Wednesday in the U.S. Session, the dollar was bought by a bit, not a lot, but by a bit… When I checked it last night, it has lost those 2 index points already.  Gold continued to come back from it last takedown by the short paper traders, and gained $3 yesterday to close at $ 3,357… Silver also continues to gain back lost ground last week, by gaining 16-cets to close at $38,57… The good witch, Glinda came out and told everyone to come out now that the Big Bad short paper traders have left…. for now… 

The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle for the day, while the 10-year treasury’s yield dropped some more ending the day with a 4.23%

You know, all this talk of rate cuts, and the dropping 10-year’s yield, is helping Gold as we go along here… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar didn’t move and stayed in the 1,201 handle of the BBDXY all night. So we start the day today at 1,201…  Gold is Seeing some selling this morning and is down $2 to start the day, while Silver is seeing some heavier selling and is down 39-cents to start the day…  The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle all night.. And the 10-year Treasury saw some more buying, which lowers the yield and it stats today with a 4.20% yield… 

Well, looky here… The U.S.  Debt crossed over to $37 Trillion in the past couple of days… A dear reader sent me a note about the $37 Trillion debt, and I thought to myself, ‘it was only a matter of when not if, it would reach $37 Trillion.. 

That means that we, as a country have added $1 Trillion to our debt in the last 5 months, and that’s how long it took to get to $36 Trillion too, just 5 months! It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger as it goes… 

I also saw that the monthly debt was HUGE… The U.S. Treasury reported that the Federal spending totaled $629.6 billion in July — 9.7% higher than July of last year.

Meanwhile, revenue totaled $338.5 billion — up only 2.5% from a year earlier despite a 290% leap in tariff revenue.

The result was a monthly deficit of $291.1 billion — up from $243.7

Thanks for the info from Dave Gonigam at the Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets… 

So, the monthly numbers just keep getting larger… That’s going the wrong way as far as I’m concerned… We, as a country, should be looking for way to cut spending, and not for ways to spend more!  The debt servicing on the growing debt is going to choke us…  I’m just saying…

And speaking of interest rate cuts, Bloomerg.com had this from the U.S. Treasury, “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to execute a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the central bank’s benchmark ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now.

“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” Bessent said in a television interview on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday. “If you look at any model” it suggests that “we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.”

Chuck again… I don’t know what “model” he’s using, but it sure isn’t the one that I use, which tells me that you don’t cut rates when inflation is still a problem and most likely to become an even bigger problem…

Did you see the nominated head of the BLS? He wants to change the reporting on jobs from monthly to quarterly…  I just have one question for him on that, is that so the BLS has more time to cook the books?  he also went on to admit that the current jobs reports are a mess….   Well, when you tell a lie, you then have to repeat it often, and embelish it quite a bit too!  And the BLS has been a pack of lies for a very long time! And never before where their collective feet held to the fire, until now… But this guy isn’t going to ride in on a white horse, and make the jobs reports better… In fact since he’s one of the POTUS’s pals, the reports will probably be even larger lies!  I’m just saying…

And in a heart felt mea culpa… on Monday I reported in the currency roundup that the Swiss franc was 1.03 something… I even had a dear reader question the price, but I responded to him that I had taken it from the Bloomberg currency prices page, so it must be right…  Only to find the next day it was back to 1.24 something… So, Bloomberg must have had it wrong, and I swallowed it hook, line and sinker… Well, that won’t happen again! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was barren, with just some Fed Heads speaking… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for a Thursday, and that’s about it for today. Tomorrow we’ll see the July Retail Sales print… The BHI indicates that it will be better than the average Bear… And then Capacity Utiliazation, and Industrial Production for July will also print tomorrow…

To recap… The dollar staged a mini-rally yesterday in the U.S. after getting sold overseas the previous night.  All this talk of rate cuts, is really underpinning Gold right now… And then you add In the fact that bond yields are dropping…  That too, helps Gold…  Well, it was a matter of when not if, we passed by $37 Trillion in debt… And our monthly budgets are faring too well either!  And finally, Scott Bessent calls for 150 Basis Points of rate cuts!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article last night while perusing the internet. It’s about how the POTUS really came unglued when Lola, I mean Goldman Sachs had this to say about tariffs. And it can be found here: As Trump berates Goldman, economists agree higher tariff inflation coming

Or, here’s your snippet: “Goldman Sachs is taking the heat for its call that heavier tariff-induced consumer inflation is ahead, but it’s far from alone in that view among its Wall Street brethren.

Despite investors’ embrace of Tuesday’s fairly benign consumer price index report, economists expect that the biggest impact to inflation is yet to come.

With pre-tariff inventories rolling off, effective tariff rates climbing higher and companies less willing to absorb higher costs from the duties, the general feeling is that consumers are increasingly going to feel the bite through the rest of the year.

“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty around the degree of pass-through to consumer prices, given that this year’s tariff increases are well larger than anything in the post-war US experience.”

Chuck Again…  and THAT is the reason the FOMC has kept interest rates steady Eddie…   For they too know what the tariffs are going to do… 

Market Prices 8/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .5949, C$ .7245, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $ 1.2417, European Style: rand 17.77, krone 10.1689, SEK 9.5630, forint 337.84, zloty 3.6432, koruna 20.9318, RUB 79.65, yen 146.64, sing 1.2517, HKD 7.8426, INR 87.55, China 7.1704, peso 18.68, BRL 5.3976, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $62.93, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $38.18, Platinum $1,361.00, Palladium $1,156.00, Copper $4.54, and Gold… $3.355

That’s it for today… Well, the mighty Yankees come to town tomorrow night for a weekend series with my beloved Cardinals… Both teams have really struggled since we turned the calendar to July… I want to apologize for all the typos in yesterday’s Pfennig… I usually try to scan it over before sending it out, but not yesterday, and then when I did scan it, all the typos showed up like a credit card bill after a spending spree! Tomorrow is 8/15… That was the day each year that we began summer football practices… 2 practices a day… Sometimes we wouldn’t even go home between the practices, and would take naps on the bleachers! Ahhhh…. those were the days! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with a song from my favorite album Seventh Sojourn: Isn’t Life Strange… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals make a comeback
• The BOE cuts rates!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did you miss me? I missed writing, some days that is… I had a very relaxing and fun vacation with Adrew, Rachel, Braden and Evie… The Trade Deadline came and went, and my beloved Cardinals did nothing to improve their team this year, so it looks as though they’ve waved the white flag in 2025… UGH!  Sammy Hagar greets me this morning with his song: Turn Up The Music… it’s a live version so it has me geared up this morning… 

Well, while I was away, the dollar had a mini-rally, but as the days of my vacation grew near, the mini-rally began to fade… At first, the dollar rallied when it was believed that the tariffs the POTUS had announced for some countries would be replaced by new trade agreements… But soon, it was realized that new Trade Agreement or not, the tariffs were still in place, maybe not as high of tariffs, but still in place nonetheless… 

Gold & Silver saw another engineered takedown by the short paper traders, and both have slowly worked their way back in the highlight… 

The dollar ended the week last Friday, at 1,204…  that was after the BBDXY reached 1,221 on 7/28… So, as you can see the dollar’s mini-rally is fading quickly…   Gold ended the week last week at $3,396, and for a brief time on Friday last week it traded over $3,400… Silver ended the week at $33.96… 

It was discussed last week that the POTUS may place tariffs on Gold bars coming into the U.S.  The last time he said he would do that, it caused a HUGE transfer from London to New York, as dealers tried to get ahead of the tariffs… I think this is a case of fool me once… but not twice, as there has been no HUGE transfer taking place this time. 

Or… maybe these guys are all from Missouri and will have to be shown! I know, I know, that can’t be the case, I was just throwing it out there for fun! 

The price of Oil is seeing a lack of demand as the summer driving season comes to a close… And the price of Oil end the week trading with a $63 handle…  And as we draw closer the next FOMC meeting the calls for a rate cut will grow louder and louder, and that has the yields on bonds dropping with the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 4.27%

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar has been bought a bit as the BBDXY is up 2 index points to start our day/ week. And I guess I shouldn’t have talked to glowingly about Gold above and its comeback, because overnight and in the early trading Gold is down $41 to start the day/ week! I can’t find anything on the newswires to explain this sell off, so… we’ll have to put this down as yet another engineered takedown… I guess the powers that be didn’t like Gold flexing its muscles at $3,400…  Silve is also getting sold this morning and is down 58-cents to start our day/ week. 

I have been away for two weeks, and nothing’s changed with the problems of the U.S. in fact, they may be worse, in that the latest auction of Treasuries went sour, and the primaries had to step in and sup up the unsold bonds…  

Circling back to Gold… I think that that the tariffs applied to Gold bars, will do nothing but give the Gold bugs reason to take Gold higher, and so, I think that thought has crossed the short paper traders, and that’s why they’ve attacked Gold like they have this morning…  For what that’s worth, it’s just my Pfennig’s worth…

And it gives those among you and anyone else that has twiddled their thumbs and procrastinated long enough to buy Gold at a cheaper price today… A Bue Light special if you will… 

I came across this info while out… You will recall me telling you several times in the last couple of years that this is a deficit in Silver production…  But now… I have the numbers! Check this out:  The deficit in Silver production in 2024 was:  117 million ounces versus about 148 million ounces, in 2023. But if you add in the net investment into physical silver and then net investment into Silver ETFs, then you’re looking at the third highest silver deficit that we have on record.

In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, he posted this info:  “The Silver short position is now down to a still ugly 22,841 contracts…from the 32,888 contracts short position they held in last Friday’s COT Report — and now even further below the obscene 76,723 contracts they were short back on February 14. – Ed Steer www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

So, if you take the fact that there is a HUGE deficit in Silver production and then add in the fact that the number of short contracts in silver are getting smaller, I think this all leads to a HUGE rally for Silver is coming…  I truly see Silver getting to $40 before we turn the calendar on this year, and from there, $50 will be its next stop… 

The Bank of England (BOE) cut rates by 25 Basis Points (1/4%) last week, citing a fall in inflation… Maybe the U.K. Gets real Bonafide true inflation numbers?  I would certainly hope that at least one country doesn’t have their hands in the cookie jar all the time! 

The currencies, as a whole, have begun to fight back and regain ground that was lost during the dollar’s goosing… 

And as to Gold… I received this from the good folks at GATA: “In the early hours of trading today, global markets were shaken by the announcement by the Trump administration of a 39% tariff on imported gold bars weighing 100 ounces or more. U.S. December gold futures reached an all-time high price of $3,534.10 per ounce shortly after the declaration was made.

This sudden move injected uncertainty into the bullion market, unsettling dealers, refiners, and institutional investors trading in larger “exchange delivery” formats. While gold is rarely targeted by protectionist measures — unlike base metals, agriculture, or manufactured goods — this decision warrants close attention, both for its immediate market impact and potential implications for future monetary policy.”

My friends at the FXSTREET posted an article that was quoting a Fed Head… Let’s listen in: “his summer, we’ve started seeing cracks in the U.S. economic armor, including a significant weakening in the jobs market that could signal tough times ahead for many American workers.

While low at 4.2%, the unemployment rate is threatening to break out to a new cycle high, and layoffs are up significantly from one year ago.

This dynamic could accelerate a growing divide in the U.S. economy, which Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack labels a “two-speed” economy.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. lead.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack says there’s a “two-speed” economy.

The haves and have-nots in the U.S. economy

Hammack is the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s CEO, heading one of 12 regional Reserve Banks in the Fed’s Reserve System. She took over the role in August 2024.

The former cohead of global financing at Goldman Sachs and member of Goldman’s management committee was formerly the global head of short-term macro trading and repo trading, so she knows a thing or two about the markets and economy.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. lead.

Jobs report shocker resets Fed interest rate cut bets

Read More

Unfortunately, she sees a glaring and growing problem — an economy increasingly separating the haves from the have-nots.

In an interview with CBS News, Hammack said that means we’re in a “two-speed” economy, where the highest income earners are doing much better than everyone else.”

Chuck again… I know it was more like a FWIW article, but since the Pfennig will be hit-n-miss this week (I’ll explain in a bit) I thought I would load you up! 

And this will round out the letter today, as it is being reported that the Indian Central Bank has been selling dollars and buying rupees to help the rupee…  This is troubling news, in that this is not a coordinated intervention with several Central Banks partaking.  And why is that? Because as I’ve explained many times in the past, the markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank, and if the markets want the rupee to be weak, it my get a brief reprieve from the intervention, but then it will return to the underlying weakness…  I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard while I was gone, had the July Jobs Jamboree, which turned out to be very disappointing… The BLS said that 73,000 jobs were created in July… And that was after they had decided to add 257,000 jobs after the surveys were received… Which, if you used real math, and not the kind the Gov’t uses… it would mean that the economy lost 184,00 jobs in July… Another interesting piece of data while I was gone, was the ISM (manufacturing index), which fell from 48.7 to 48%, that’s going the wrong way folks…  And finally while I was away, the FOMC left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, which really ticked off the POTUS… I’m just saying… 

And on top of that May and June’s jobs numbers were revised downward… Big Time!  And then to add frosting to the cake, the POTUS fired the head of the BLS… 

I came across this note from MarketWatch.com while gone, and copied it and saved it for today… “An increasing number of borrowers are falling behind on both their student-debt and mortgage payments — a development that’s worrying economists about the state of the housing sector and the broader U.S. economy.

Student-loan delinquencies are rising sharply, as are delinquencies on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

Chuck again… Tapped out? Well, I guess we’ll get a better picture of that chance this coming Friday, when Retail Sales are printed… Not that Retail Sales are the “everything” when it comes to consumer’s disposable income, and IT IS A GOVERNMENT REPORT, we must aways keep those things in mind… 

To Recap… Chuck’s back, for a brief time that is this week… And during his absence the dollar rallied and then began to get sold again, Gold got sold and then began to come back, until this morning that is… The head of the BLS is gone… because he didn’t cook the books enough for the POTUS…  Treasuries are having a rough go of it at the auctions, and the BOE cut rates… 

For What It’s Worth… I read this email while on vacation and flagged it so I could come back to it for the FWIW article when I returned… This is how our value of the dollar has deteriorated through the years, and it can be found here: 2021 Meme Reveals the Relentless Devaluation of Your Money

Or, here’s your snippet: “I ran across a 2021 meme the other day that vividly illustrates just how quickly the government is destroying your money.

The meme points out that in 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25, or five quarters. That sounds really low, but keep in mind that before 1965, quarters were 90 percent silver. In 2021, the melt value of those five quarters was $23.34.

In other words, the five quarters a minimum wage worker earned in an hour in 1964 had $23.34 in purchasing power in 2021. There’s your “living wage.”

That’s pretty staggering in and of itself, but now fast forward a few years. As of today, the melt value of those five quarters is $34.45.

In other words, the value (purchasing power) of those five quarters has increased by another 47.6 percent in just three and a half years!

This reflects the relentless devaluation of U.S. money.

What Happened to Our Money?

Under the Coinage Act signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965, the U.S. Treasury removed all of the silver from dimes, quarters, and half-dollars. Instead, the government mints coins from “composites, with faces of the same alloy used in our 5-cent piece that is bonded to a core of pure copper.”

You will sometimes hear coins minted before 1965 referred to as “junk silver.”

In reality, we should call modern American coins junk.

Johnson promised that removing silver would have no impact on the value of U.S. coinage, asserting that “[The] Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin.”

You’ll be shocked to learn he was lying.

Richard Nixon told a similar fib when he severed the last tie between the U.S. dollar and gold. When he announced the closing of the gold window, Nixon said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”

As we all know, that’s not what happened. The dollar buys a fraction of what it did in 1971, and U.S. quarters minted after 1965 are virtually worthless.

The meme tells the story. We don’t have a wage problem in the U.S.  We have a money problem. And it is rapidly getting worse.

This is why you don’t want to hold fiat currency for any amount of time. It is losing value minute by minute. You need real money – gold and silver.”

Chuck Again… Good article in my humble country boy opinion!  And I included the entire article for the snippet, because it was so good… 

Market Prices August 11, 2025: American Style: A$ .6511, kiwi .5931, C$ .7279, euro 1.1631, sterling 1.3431, Swiss $1.0361, European Style: rand 17.6333, krone 10.2397, SEK 9.6151, forint 340.25, zloty 3.4183, koruna 21.0534, RUB 79.66, yen 147.88, sing 1.2859, HKD 7.8499, INR 87.66, China 7.1841, peso 18.60, BRL 5.3246, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.39, Oil $64.17, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $37.74, Platinum $1,313.00, Palladium $1,414.00, Copper $4.43, and Gold… $3,355

That’s it for today… So, did you miss me? Well, I missed writing to you! Our last weekend down here I got to see the full moon rise over the ocean, it’s such a beautiful event! Ok, this week, no Pfennig tomorrow, but then I’m back on Wednesday, but then no Pfennig on Thursday because it’s infusion day… Next week, back to normal…  While I was away, my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace turned 18… She’s a senior in H.S. This year, and next year she’ll go away to college…  (Where have the years gone?)  When I left, I said that my beloved Cardinals were circling the bowl… But in the last week they’ve taken 2of 3 from both the Dodgers and Cubs… So, still circling but keeping their heads above water… The Cyrkle takes us to the finish line today with their song: Red Rubber Ball (The Cyrkle was the opining band for the Beatles!)  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

• the dollar continued to get sold on Wednesday
• Trade deal with Japan weighs on Gold & Silver

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, my beloved Cardinals are definitely circling the bowl now… They lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies! Time to back up the truck and load up the players that will be traded next week… The team comes home now to play the red-hot Padres… UGH!  Shame on the GM for assembling this team without pitching depth… It was a hot one yesterday, I tried to sit out to read, and only made it for 30 minutes… Outkast greets me this morning with Duane’s song: Hey Ya!

The dollar continued to get sold in the U.S. yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points to 1,192.. The euro really sprang upward and now looks like it wants to take out the 1.18 figure.  Bloomberg.com had an article yesterday that said that the dollar’s bottom isn’t in yet, as options are indicating a further decline.  You know the longer the Fed Heads delay the rate cut (now on the docket for Sept), the more chance that it will be case of sell the rumor (of a rate cut) and buy the fact… Which would mean the dollar would stop getting sold when the FOMC gets around to cutting rates.  I don’t see that happening, but I’m just putting it out there to think about…

The Fed Heads like to say that they do NOT like to surprise the markets… So, keeping that in mind, next week’s FOMC meeting will be a non-event… .I’m just saying…

Gold & Silver ran into the short paper traders and some profit taking yesterday… Gold lost $48 and fell back under the $3,400 figure, and Silver held onto the $39 handle after losing just 5-cents on the day. Gold closed at $3,387, and Silver closed at $39.30…  After yesterday’s engineered takedown of Gold, it was good to read a sane person’s viewpoint… Let’s go there right now!

And here’s some good advice from good friend, Rick Checkan of ASI: “Treasury yields and U.S. dollar dip while gold and silver rise. With favorable conditions continuing to set up for another precious metals rally in the second half of the year, investors would be wise to take advantage of current levels before they continue to rise. Especially now, as premiums are still at extreme lows since demand on the retail bullion market has yet to catch up.” – Rich Checkan

You can find Rich and his daily messages at www.assetstragegies.com

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day with a $65 handle… And the 10-year Treasury is range trading right now, and ended yesterday with a 4.38% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar gained some traction with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points… It seems that the markets / Wall Street, etal, are becoming more confident with every trade deal that gets done… Yesterday, it was a deal with Japan, thus curtailing the hefty tariffs they would have incurred if not negotiating a better deal. 

Gold is starting the day today down $21, and Silver is down 20-cents… I think the confidence the markets are getting from the trade deals being announced is weighing on Gold & Silver… What? Me Worry? (Alfred E. Neuman) After all the hoopla of signing trade deals ends, the other items fueling Gold & Silver previously… Yes, they are still there, so don’t worry, be happy (Marley) 

The price of Oil remained in the $65 handle last night, and the 10-year saw some selling again, with the yield rising to 4.80%… 

Well, I guess the POTUS had grown tired of dissing the Fed Chairman, and has sent his right-hand man, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent to do the dirty work… Yesterday, Bessent was speaking and calling for an examination of the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel…  This from Reuters.com ” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve’s vital independence on monetary policy is threatened by its “mandate creep” into non-policy areas and he called on the U.S. central bank to conduct an exhaustive review of those operations.

The Fed’s autonomy “is threatened by persistent mandate creep into areas beyond its core mission, provoking justifiable criticism that unnecessarily casts a cloud over the Fed’s valuable independence on monetary policy,” Bessent said in a post on X.”

It is my opinion that these two linchpins will get together and get the interest rate setting job back to the Treasury… And then the POTUS can direct his “yes-man” in the direction he wants… Which is a cheaper dollar, and lower interest rates…  And now Powell has another foe… Speaker Johnson said that ‘he’s become disenchanted  with Powell” Come one, come all to get in line to diss the Fed Chief!

Ok, I’ve got to go to something else this morning, this talk has got me riled up! 

Sneaking under the wire, the POTUS announced a 15% tariff / trade deal with Japan…  That’s huge folks… Now if he could just work his magic on China… 

And I could get all caught up in the Epstein stuff, but I won’t… All I’ll say is that this a battle of words, and most of them are lies (Pink Floyd)

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share this old Irish Proverb with you.. “A Good Laugh and a long sleep are the two best cures for anything”   Think about that and incorporate it being… It’ll do you good! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Existing Home Sales, and they fell from the previous month’s figure… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  With all the layoffs being reported around the country, I see this number rising… Tomorrow, while I’m packing for my trip, we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods Orders… You might recall me telling you last month when this data printed a blowout number, that it was all down with smoke and mirrors, and this month’s report should go back to being negative… 

To recap… The dollar continues to get sold, but Gold ran into the short paper traders and profit taking yesterday, UGH! No worries, just providing a cheaper price for buying… I’m just saying… Gold couldn’t hold the $3,400 figure, but it won’t take it long to revisit it… Again I’m just saying… Rich Checkan visits us in the Pfennig today… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, since this is the last FWIW for the next two weeks, I thought it would be a good one, but then I always have good ones, right? HA! This article is about not only Central Banks are buying Gold but also Sovereign Wealth Funds and it can be found here: Move over, central banks: Sovereign wealth funds are also buying tonnes of gold | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold is once again at the center of global financial strategy—not just for central banks, but for sovereign wealth funds looking to hedge risks and preserve value.

Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst for EMEA at the World Gold Council, reported in a social media post on Wednesday that the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) bought 16 Tonnes of gold during the second quarter.

“This lifts its total H1 net purchases to 35 Tonnes and total gold holdings to 181 Tonnes (almost 29% of its total portfolio),” he said.

According to its investment policy, the sovereign wealth fund has reached its maximum allowable position in the precious metal.

SOFAZ has been extremely active in the gold market, with its purchases outpacing most central bank activity so far this year.

Only Poland has bought more gold in the first half of the year than SOFAZ, increasing its official reserves by 67.2 Tonnes as of May.

While the People’s Bank of China has been actively buying gold for nine consecutive months, its purchases in the first half of the year totaled 16.9 Tonnes as of May.”

Chuck Again… well, all good things come to an end, right? When will this hoarding of Gold by the Central banks end? The rising price of Gold doesn’t seem to bother them too much, as they just keep buying! So, to answer my own question, I don’t think it will end in the near future… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/24/2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .6044, C$ 7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $1.2584, European Style: rand 17.6107, krone 10.1046, SEK 9.4314, forint 338.57, zloty 3.6226, koruna 20.9053, RUB 79.37, yen 146.57, sing 1.2774, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.40, China 7.1586, peso 18.54, BRL 5.5201, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 97.38, Oil $65.80, 10-year 4.80%, Silver $39.10, Platinum $ 1,411.00, Palladium $1,280, Copper $5.90, and Gold… $3,366

That’s it for today, and the next two weeks… I know, I know, I shouldn’t take such long vacations, but I AM RETIRED! So, go to the website: www.dailypfennig.com  and read some archives that should hold you over until I return! Lunch with my classmates today, Whoopee! And then we get into the dog days of Summer, which is August… I’m looking forward to spendng time with Son Andrew, and his family of Rachel, Braden and Evie, we always seem to have a good time… Speaking of Rachel… Astrud Gilberto and the great Stan Getz takes us to the finish line today with their great song: The Girl From Ipanema… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and will remember to be Good To Yourself, for the next two week, as I won’t be here to remind you! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally again on Tuesday
• Poor, poor, pitiful, Powell…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, give them the chance and my beloved Cardinals will play down to their competition… They lost last night to the Rockies… Yes, I said the Rockies, a team that has only won 26 games so far this season, of which one of their wins is against the Cardinals! UGH! I had to deal with my streaming company all night last night, but finally go it straightened out! UGH! King Crimson greets me this morning with their classic rock song: In The Court of the Crimson King…  I love this song!

Well, the dollar continued to get sold yesterday with the BBDXY posting a 4-index point loss and close in the U.S. at 1,196… The euro moved higher in the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies gained some ground on the dollar…  Yesterday I went through a couple of the laundry list of items that are weighing down the dollar, but most of all is this question that should be on the minds of everyone… “The Current Debt is $37 Trillion, and will keep going higher… How will we finance that debt when all the participants at the auction window don’t show up? 

I wouldn’t be surprised if an emergency bil went through congress that requires all investments in 401k’s be in Treasuries…   Now that’s just something that I dreamed up, it’s not on the docket, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see there one day in the future… 

Well, didn’t I say yesterday that the negatives in Gold & Silver would probably turn around and be positive figures?  And guess what Gold & Silver did yesterday? They turned those negative figures in price to positive ones, just like I thought they would!  Gold gained $35 to close at $3,432, and Silver gained 36-cents to close at $39.35… That’s back to a 14-year high for Silver, and quite frankly if the short paper traders hadn’t genuflected on the news of a 14-year high last week, we would be well into the $40 handle this week… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw some buying, from those up-in-the-sky folks that are still leaving a light on for a rate cut next week… The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day at 4.36%… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar slipped another index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,196…  I’ve been surprised by the overnight markets not picking up the ball and running with it the last two sessions, as the dollar has gotten sold in the U.S. and Gold & Silver have rallied, but then the foreigners don’t seem to want to participate… Hmmm… Oh well, que sera, sera, eh?  

The price of Gold has slipped a mere $3 to start our day today, and Silver is up 9-cents…  These too are figures that could easily be turned around, so watch for that to take place today… Because there will be more Fed Heads speaking and talking about the need for a rate cut… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight, and trades this morning in a $64 handle… And the 10-year Treasury didn’t move overnight, so it starts today with a 4.36% yield.  I read this morning that Russia had increased their physical Gold shipments to China by 80% or $1 Billion worth… These two are getting really chummy, chummy, don’t you think? I do… and I don’t like it one iota!  That scares the bejeebers out of me for sure!

Well, poor, poor, pitiful Powell.. Everyone’s ganging up on him these days… Even his own brothers in arms (Dire Staits) at the Eccles Bldg. Are starting to voice their preference to cut rates…  if I were Powell, I would say, “OK, go ahead and cut rates while inflation is still above our target and money supply is growing by leaps and bounds, and I will say, neener, neener, I told you not to cut yet!”

I know that I’ve explained market trends to you before, so I won’t get into that too much now, only to remind you that the dollar has seen a weak, then strong, then weak, then strong, trends in the past, and I believe we have just seen the ending of the strong trend for the dollar that has been in place since the debts of the Club Med were exposed, and the Eurozone as whole had to deal with it, causing the main offset to the dollar to get sold, and thus began the strong dollar trend that went further than any previous trend, and only because the U.S. seemed to have weathered the storm of 2007, and then COVID…  But those things are in our rear-view mirror now, and that’s why I believe it’s time for a long-term weak dollar trend to begin… 

It all started when the U.S. weaponized the dollar a few years ago now, and froze the Russian assets and deposits…  Every country in the world had a coming to Jesus realization that if that could happen to Russia, the U.S. wouldn’t think twice about doing it to us… And that triggered the mass buying of physical Gold and selling of dollars by Central banks around the world.  

Yes it’s taken the dollar bugs a while now to come around to thinking that maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know (Andujar)  But now, the writing is on the wall for the dollar bugs, and they had better know how to read!

We, as Americans need to own some dollars… but it has long been my mantra to say that we need dollars, for gas, groceries and giggles, and that’s it! 

And on a sidebar here… Did you know that market trends go as far back as 2,000 BC? I was told that by a sage trader many years ago… So long ago that the Dead Sea wasn’t even sick yet! 

In Japan, the revolving door PM policy is set to see another new PM next month.. Mr. Ishibi Japan’s current PM saw his majority in the house get beaten and a new majority that sure doesn’t see things Ishibi’s way, has now taken over, and from the looks and sounds of it, the current PM’s place isn’t long for this Gov’t…  I’ve told you time and time and again through the years that Japan is a basket case… And will continue to be one for years to come…  That’s why I wouldn’t touch Japanese yen with YOUR 10-foot pole! 

The U.S Data Cupboard has the Existing Home Sales that I erroneously thought was going to print yesterday… Instead, the Cupboard was bare yesterday, and has a non-market moving print today… 

To recap… I would suspect after two HUGE move by Gold & Silver the last two trading sessions, that we could begin to see some profit taking… From those that still think that Gold & Silver are commodities that are there to trade like stocks… UGH! The dollar is still getting sold

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article while perusing Google, and thought it could very well by FWIW worthy… This is an article about things to look for from the FOMC at next week’s meeting… and it can be found here: “3 Things To Watch For In The Fed’s July Interest Rate Decision

Or, here’s your snippet:”The Federal Open Market Committee will set short-term interest rates next Wednesday, July 30.

The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the year so far, and markets do not expect an interest rate cut in July. However, a rate cut may be reasonably likely at the conclusion of the next meeting on Sept. 17. That’s according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures the expectations of fixed income markets.

Three topics are likely to be the focus of markets at the meeting.

The first is any response from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the repeated pressure and criticism that President Trump and his administration has directed at Powell. In prior meetings Powell has been terse in his responses to questions on the topic, pointing out that he can’t legally be removed as Fed chair without cause but refusing to be publicly drawn on Trump’s comments.

The other things to watch for will be hints of a September cut and whether there is any dissent within the open market committee on the policy decision.

for now, markets view a September interest rate cut as more likely than not. The FOMC generally doesn’t try to surprise markets, so if a September cut is coming there may be clues either in the July statement or the accompanying news conference.

June’s Consumer Price Index inflation report did show some potential signs of tariff-related inflation in certain categories, which could concern the FOMC. Nonetheless, since February inflation has generally eased and the job market has held up well for 2025 on the most recent reports. FOMC officials have expressed the view that tariffs might raise prices and slow growth, but they are awaiting data. That issue may be resolved one way or the other in the coming months. So far, the FOMC’s position has essentially been to wait and see, especially as the jobs market has held up well on recent reports.”

Chuck again…  As usual, this article is much longer, so if you can carve out some extra time to read it in its entirety, then click the link above and go for it! 

Market Prices 7/23/2025: American Style: A$.6600, kiwi .6046, C$ .7365, euro 1.1729, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2602, European Style: rand 17.5418, krone 10.0870, SEK 9.5102, forint 340.22, zloty 3.6287, koruna 21.6851, RUB 78.54, yen 147.21, sing 1.2766, HKD 7.8500, INR 86.47, China 7.1604, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5652, BBDXY 1,196, Dollar Index 97.42, Oil $ 64.89, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $39.44, Platinum $1,448.00, Palladium $1,258.00, Copper $5.82, and Gold… $3,429

That’s it for today… Tomorrow, I’m meeting my classmates for lunch… This is a small group of people that were very good friends back in the day…  One of my friends I’ve known since kindergarten… 1960… There’s nothing on the docket for this weekend, so I’ll be chillin and grillin… And trying not to use as much electricity as I usually do! I leave for my winter home, in the summer on Sunday… I love it down in the South, and see myself living there more than just the 3 months of winter, and various short trips in the future… The pain I told you I woke up with on Monday, has finally started to abate… YAHOO!  My all-time favorite Dooby Bros song takes us to the finish line today playing : South City Midnight Lady…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, reduce your electricity usage, and Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• trade tensions weigh on the dollar…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were thrown a life saver yesterday, as they played the Rockies, the worst record team in baseball… The team needs to sweep this team they’re playing, and come back home… where they DO play better baseball… It was a decent day here yesterday, and we went to dinner with our good friends, Toni and Duane… I was supposed to receive my two new books yesterday, but they were delayed… UGH!  The Rev. Al Green greets me this morning with his song: Love And Happiness.. 

The dollar continued what it started late last week, and that his to get sold… The BBDXY lost 3 index points yesterday. The currencies all breathed a sigh of relief, that the dollar’s rally was brief… Gold was up and nearly traded above the $3,400 figure to end the day at $3,397, up $50 on the day… And Silver tried to get back to its 14-year high, but the short paper traders cut Silver’s rally off at $38.99, up 88-cents on the day… I have something very interesting for you in the FWIW section today on Silver, so I doubt you’ll want to miss that! 

Like I told you yesterday, the sentiment has changed on Wall Street, and risk assets are back on the buying table… In keeping that thought in mind, the price of Oil drifted yesterday, and ended the day at $66.61…  I also read last night that the bond boys are coming back around to thinking that long term inflation is on the board again, and now they need to show it by getting the yield moving upward again. The 10-year Treasury ended yesterday with a 4.37% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar just kind of drifted about, with the BBDXY staying at 1,200, but the euro climbing back over the 1.17 figure… The rest of the currencies are looking good too, as we start our day. 

The price of Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning and is down $9 to start the day, and Silver is playing follow the leader and is down 5-cents to start the day. After yesterday’s major move upward, these two needed to take a breather, and that’s just what they are doing. As long as the short paper traders don’t show up and begin to take their pound of flesh again, Gold & Silver should weather the day, and most likely will turn the negatives to positives… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained in the $66 handle overnight… And the 10-year Treasury trades with a 4.39% yield this morning. Maybe the bond boys got my message? Ha! I doubt that seriously! 

Speaking of Oil, that brings me to the Petrol Currencies, that includes: rubles, sterling, krone, loonies, rand and pesos, to name a few… These Petrol Currencies are stuck in a rut with the price of oil range trading these days… A currency like the Norwegian krone is influenced by not only the price of Oil, but also the euro… So, when the price of Oil is stuck in a rut like it is now, the rise in the euro helps the krone to inch higher VS the dollar…  

The underlying trend is for a weaker dollar… And it will get lower come hell or high water… In that I mean, the dollar has a laundry list of items stacked up against it right now, and should keep the dollar down, unless the PPT comes along and intervenes by buying dollars. We haven’t seen much from the PPT in recent times, and they have me wondering if we should put their picture on a milk carton? Not that I ever want to see them again, just pointing out that they’re missing… And that’s a good thing in my book! 

One of the things weighing on the dollar right now Is the clear as mud trade situation… Trade tensions are weighing heavily on the dollar, and lifting the price of Gold… We brought these trade tensions on ourselves, folks, so there’s no one to blame except we the people… I’m just saying…

And I found this on Zerohedge.com “Another wave of closures and layoffs has hit workers and companies tied to commercial transportation, manufacturing, lumber production, distribution and logistics across the U.S.

Over the past several weeks, there have been 4,137 job cuts announced, according to media reports and Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices.”

Chuck again… bet you didn’t hear that news on the 5 o’clock news did you?  Yet another item to add to the stack of problems for the dollar… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Leading Indicators for June, and I said they would be negative, and they were negative by -.3%…  Another item for the dollar weakness check list… 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has the Existing Home Sales… not a market moving  piece of data… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Monday, and throughout Monday night it drifted, and starts today trading in the same clothes as yesterday’s close 1,200…  Gold & Silver had good days yesterday but are seeing some small profit taking this morning.  Chuck talks about the Petrol Currencies, and layoffs along with trade tensions, not a good pair for the dollar… 

For What It’s Worth… This article I came across is about how the writer believes that Silver is the Canary in the Coal mine… And it can be found here: Silver — The System’s Canary – Charts and Parts

Or, here’s your snippet: “THE MOOD

Everything in silver is getting so, so stretched.

It’s hard to imagine this game going on much longer.

Harder still to imagine what happens when it ends.

This isn’t just about silver.

It’s about fragility, exposure, and cracks in a system designed to hold — until it can’t.

THE SIGNAL CLUSTER

In the past few weeks, a rare alignment hit the silver market:

Record short positions by swap dealers — offsetting natural demand

SLV borrow rates spike — shorts scrambling

Silver lease rates spike — users paying up for physical

COMEX warehouse stock explodes by +200M oz — futures buyers taking delivery

This is not normal. It’s pressure.

Coordinated or not, it’s happening.

And it all points in one direction: stress.

THE HEIST BLUEPRINT

If you read Silver Heist, none of this should surprise you.

We laid out the script — paper vs. physical, naked shorts, the shell game.

The paper market runs on illusion.

The physical market demands settlement.

That moment — when illusion meets delivery — is when systems must adapt.

ZOOM OUT

The takeaway isn’t just about silver.

It’s a case study in how systems mask fragility — until delivery day arrives.

First comes the mispricing.

Then the manipulation.

Finally, the reveal – the truth reclaims the narrative.

The pressure valve won’t hold forever – and change will follow.”

Chuck again… This article is full of charts to illustrate his points, of which I think he does a very good job of…  Check it out!

Market Prices 7/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6517, kiwi .5963, C$ .7306, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.6093, krone 10.1660, SEK 9.5852, forint 342.22, zloty 3.6375, koruna 21.0428, RUB 78.51, yen 147.41, sing 1.2815, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.37, China 7.1756, peso 18.61, BRL 5.5673, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $38.92, Platinum $1,450.00, Palladium $1,274.00, Copper $5.66, and Gold… $3,388

That’s it for today…  I received my RSV vaccine yesterday… My PCP requested that I get one since I’ve caught so many colds that turned into disaster…  Well, I sure hope it works, not that I think I’m now immune to germs… I still need to watch where I go, who I see, and what I do…  And I’ll be around little Evie for two weeks while on vacation, and she’s normally kryptonite for me… But she’s so cute! And when she wants to give me hug, I can’t resist! See? I’m an old softie!  The St. Louis band, Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Blue Mist… I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday today, and once again, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar loses its grip late last week…
• The sentiment on Wall Street has changed again!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals are in the dumpster, they lost 3 straight to the snakes out in Arizona right out of the All-Star Break… They are in deep dookie, and with the trade deadline next week, I doubt seriously that they will make a move to improve the team… They didn’t make any moves in the offseason, why would they make them now? It was a grand time on Friday night with my good friends at our local watering hole, and Saturday, I paid the price with an upset stomach all day… UGH!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their big 70’s song: Summer Breeze

The dollar’s mini-rally ended late last week, and the BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday to end the week at 1,203… I think it was a case of traders thinking they had gone too far, too fast, and correcting…   There was nothing late last week in the data that would have been a “buy” signal for the dollar, so there was that…  Gold began to put together a nice rally on Thursday, and ended the week on Friday up $24 since Thursday morning, and close at $3,347… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and ended the week on Friday up 33-cents, and close at $38.11 

The euro climbed back over the 1.16 handle to end the week, and the rest of the currencies all gained a bit here and there VS the dollar… 

Speaking of the euro… Did you hear that Morgan Stanley researchers had to say about the euro? Well, now you will! ” Morgan Stanley predicted that the euro will continue climbing toward $1.30 and beyond — a roughly 12.1% rise from its current level”

WOW! Now that’s going out on a limb! You’ve never seen me out that far on a limb,  have you? But, if the dollar is in a long-term weak trend, then I wouldn’t doubt that the euro will be able to reach that level…  See? My venture out on the limb is a calculated move, predicated on the dollar cooperating… 

The price of Oil climbed back above the $67 handle and that’s where it ended the week, while the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield drop a bit to end the week with a 4.42% yield… 

Last week I allowed my youngest son to swap cars with me as he needed to get new tires on his truck and had to just drop it off at the shop… That was all well and good until I got in my car on Thursday morning to go to the hospital and noticed that my gas light was on and I was about out of gas!  I went through all that to tell you that the price of gas hasn’t seen much of a drop!   

In the overnight markets last night…  the selling in the dollar that began late last week, continued throughout the night, but at a slower pace… The BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,202… The currencies all look a little perkier this morning, with the dollar bugs not too confident in owning dollars at this point. Gold is up $25 to start our day/ week today to start… And Silver is up 24-cents…  

I think that Wall Street is changing their sentiment again, and think the two Fed Heads, one current, and on former are speaking for the whole FMOC, and a rate cut is coming… Maybe not next week, but in Sept.  The Jobs Jamboree next week will hold the hammer, and it will be searching for a nail to drive home the rate cut in Sept… 

And that change of sentiment has a lot to do with Gold back on the rally tracks… All that dollar talk about the economy doing just fine, really suck in the craw of Gold, but that’s changed again, so que sera, sera…   I’ve got the stuff about the Fed Heads later in the letter this morning… 

Well, did you hear what the Bank of England (BOE) is doing these days? They are scrutinizing the banks they oversea and checking for overexposure to the dollar…  Wait, What?  Yes, here’s Reuters: “The Bank of England has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, three sources said, the latest sign of how the Trump administration’s policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability.

However, President Donald Trump’s break from long-standing U.S. policy in areas such as free trade and defense has forced policymakers to consider whether the emergency provision of dollars in times of financial stress can still be relied on.”

This is from one of our staunchest allies, folks…  You can only imagine what’s going on in countries that don’t like us very much…  I’m just saying…

And another of our top allies, the Eurozone, announced that they are preparing a retaliation to the POTUS’s tariffs… It seems everyone is piling on the U.S. right now, and this can’t be good going forward… 

Well, all the talk the last couple of months that the short papers’ traders hold on the metals was showing signs of weakening, have turned out to be nothing more than talk…  The day’s needed in production of Gold to cover the short positions is 68, and the day’s needed in production of Silver to cover the short position is 180, and yes those numbers are down a smidgen, but nothing to that would make you think that the SPT’s run is over… and even coming to an end…  Of course, I would love it if they were coming to an end, but I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown!

A current Fed Head, Waller, and a former Fed Head, Warsh, were both out last week dissing the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie with interest rates, while inflation is still hanging tough…  I have Warsh’s stance for you in the FWIW section today… 

Powell, has to feel like everyone is ganging up on him, and he’s backed into a corner, and he’s not a badger, or a mad racoon… He’s not going to come out and attack these guys, he’s going to coil up in the corner and hope they go away… 

I’m going to bring this subject up again, and then again next week and thereafter until something is done to correct it… I’m talking about the strain on the power grid by the AI drain… You see, AI uses tons more electricity and is already putting strains on power grides around the country… First it was the electric cars, now its the AI machines… E-Gad! And we’re just now getting into the hottest days of summer, when home air conditioners will be working overtime… what happens if your local power grid has a brown out, in the middle of a hot August day? I shudder at the thought… 

Yes, nuclear power could help relieve some of the strain, but building a new nuclear reactor is going to take years!  We’re heading down a dark alley folks…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the June Retail Sales, I have to say that it snuck up on me, so my bad… The June Retail Sales surprised by gaining .6%, after May’s negative print… I know what it was! Father’s Day’s gifts! NOT!  At least not at my house! 

The Data Cupboard today was the Leading Indicators for June… I expect them to be negative again, as they have been for a month of Sundays…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard this week until we get to Friday this week, and by then I’ll be packing my bags for my traditional Summer Vacation!

To recap… The dollar ran into a roadblock late last week and spent Thursday and Friday spinning its wheels. The metals took that as their opportunity to get back on the rally tracks, along with the price of Oil… So, the anti-dollar assets of metals and Oil were both beating up on the dollar to end the week… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had the former Fed Head, Keven Warsh’s comments for you on the Top Fed Head, Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie on rates, and you can find it here: Fed Chair Candidate Warsh Wants More Inflation

Or, here’s your snippet: “During a recent interview with CNBC, Warsh called for a regime change at the central bank, citing its reluctance to cut interest rates.

“Their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a mark against them. It’s as if they’ve lost some of the credibility. Truth is, in economics and inflation, bygones are not bygones. The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them. So, one of the reasons why the president, I think, is right to be pushing the Fed publicly is we need regime change in the conduct of policy.”

The interviewer directly asked Warsh if he thought Trump should fire Powell.

“I think regime change at the Fed will happen in due course.”

Warsh Wants More Inflation

Like President Trump, Warsh is an outspoken advocate of interest rate cuts, arguing that price inflation is under control. His statements indicate he believes the central bank has moved too slowly in the past. During the interview, he said the central bank should look beyond the “one-off” change in prices due to tariffs.

But make no mistake – this is a call for more inflation.”

Chuck Again…  yes, inflation as cooled from its heights, but it has remained siticky, and resilient and in fact increased in June…  The thing these knuckleheads that keep calling for rate cuts aren’t taking into consideration is that Money Supply has been increasing for over a year now… And what have I taught you about Money Supply? That Money Supply equals inflation…   

Market Prices 7/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .5963, C$.7296, euro 1.1659, sterling 1.3566, Swiss $1.2504, European Style: rand 17.7249, krone 10.1780, SEK 9.6177, forint 342.21, zloty 3.6391, koruna 21.2669, RUB 78.20, yen 147.20, sing 1.2820, HKD 7.7498, INR 86.30, China 7.1794, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5796, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $67.36, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $38.54, Platinum $1,457.00, Palladium $1,293.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,372

That’s it for today… Well, my blood work all looked pretty good last week, and my oncologist agreed with me that the tumor in my mouth hadn’t shrunk any more, but has remained stable… I woke up yesterday morning with a horrible pain in my left shoulder… I couldn’t move it without major pain shooting through my shoulder…  The pain subsided just a bit as the day went on… UGH!  I’m so sad about my baseball team… They are circling the bowl, folks… UGH! College Football starts in a month! I hope my beloved Mizzou Tigers do better than forecast… The Doors takes us to the finish line today with their song; Riders On The Storm…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• China’s GDP surprises!

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! That was an interesting All-Star Game last night, with the St. Louis Cardinals representative, Brendan Donovan, getting two hits in his three plate appearances. The Game ended with a tie after 9 innings, and then a stupid swing off took place, and the National League won… That’s not the way to end a game in my book, same with soccer and hockey that do that… The early part of yesterday was warm and sunny, and then the rain moved in… I did get outside for a short time yesterday, but for some unknown reason the sun kind of got to me, and I needed to go inside and drink some cold water! The Marshall Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their song: 24 Hours At A Time… 

Well, the STUPID CPI got the dollar bugs are excited yesterday, when even the STUPID CPI showed an increase in inflation in June… That pretty much was the last nail in the rate cut’s coffin for later this month, and then maybe even into Sept at the FOMC’s next meeting after the July Jamboree…  And that thought got the dollar bugs all excited and they bought dollars left and right… The BBDXY gained 5 index points, and that made 11 index points that the BBDXY had gained in the last two days… 

Gold got the snot knocked out of it again when it looked like rates wont’ be going anywhere soon… Inflation rising should have helped Gold to weather the gold bugs’ storm,  but noooo… The Short Gold Paper Traders saw to that!  Gold ended the day down $20 at $3,324…  Silver was also taken to the woodshed by the SPT group, and once again, they’re hoping that potential buyer shy away from buying, and that long in the tooth holders would give up and sell…  And maybe here in the U.S. that works, but it doesn’t work overseas, and all they do there is provide a cheaper buying opportunity…  I’m just saying… 

The euro led the currencies back to the sick room and to their respective sick beds… Back to the drawing board for me…  This is getting really old, and I’m very tired of it! 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday and the 10-year Treasury bond picked up a few basis points to end the day with a 4.48% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… The overseas markets didn’t buy dollars last night, and I see them saying, “Whoa Partner, we’ve gone just a little too far, too fast” with the dollar rally… The BBDXY starts today at 1,207, the same figure it ended the day yesterday…  Inflation rising is something that will incur higher interest rates but the damage to real interest rates will return, and that’s what foreign investors look to find real returns…  So, we have that working in our favor, NOT!

Gold is up to start our day today, $20 and it will add to that today, unless the Short Gold Paper Traders return with gusto today… I imagine that the STP’s will return at some point just to keep Gold’s price from taking off to higher ground!  Silver is also up to start our day today, 41-cents and has risen past the $38 handle again.. The same for the STPs holds true for Silver today… 

The price of Oil slipped again last night and starts our day today trading with a $65 handle. And the 10-year Treasury bond is trading this morning with a 4.48% yield… I can’t imagine that the 10-year’s yield will remain below 4.50% too much longer, with inflation rising again…. I’m just saying…

I read a report this morning that talked about how the foreign Central Banks around the world have taken to a new form of obtaining physical Gold for their reserves… They’re buying it directly from the mining companies in their own back yards!  This is a cheaper way for the Central Banks to obtain physical Gold, cheaper…  And with the price of Gold so high, this makes abundant sense… So, the Central Bank accumulation of physical Gold continues, it’s just being done in a different way for some Central Banks… 

Well, things in China aren’t as dire as some would have you believe… China’s GDP grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, in a show of resilience against US tariffs. And China posted a record $586 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2025, defying expectations as factories appeared to ride out President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year, well above forecasts, as Chinese companies shifted sales to markets outside the U.S. – Reuters

Let’s see now… China posted a $586 Billion Trade Surplus, mostly selling to other countries than the U.S. Hmmm… sounds like a good business plan to me! 

And I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning… “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.

“Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it’d be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also.”

Chuck Again…  The most recent inflation report, even the STUPID CPI showed inflation rising again, can you imagine what inflation would really be doing if the Treasury Sec. And POTUS got their 3% rate cut?  And with inflation rising again, I would think their calls for rate cuts would be on the back burner… But, once you come out with a call, you have to defend it to the end, that that’s what phase the Gov’t’s stance is in now… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that inflation hits everyone and everything… Including tickets to a ballgame…  check this out: The average sold price of Monday night’s Home Run Derby is $1,041 and $1,183 for last night’s All-Star Game.

The next-highest prices for those two events were $604 and $754 in 2023, when the midsummer classic took place in Seattle.

Chuck again… Now, that’s what I would call a HUGE price increase in two years!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed that the STUPID CPI had gained in June… The June increase in consumer inflation was .3%, and annualized it also rose to 2.7% in June after a printing at 2.4% in May… I told you yesterday that I thought the report would show an increase, and it did… But once again, this report is in no way an indication of what you, me and the guy down the street, are experiencing in inflation.  

Today’s Data Cupboard has the PPI (wholesale inflation) for June and then we’ll see the color of June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization…  Both of these were disappointing in last month’s report, and I don’t see any change this month… 

To recap… The dollar is on a rampage after the STUPID CPI showed that inflation had increased the most for a month, in a few months, thus putting the markets’ call for a rate cut on the back burner… This report was also responsible along with the short paper traders for the loss in Gold & Silver yesterday…   The All-Star Game tickets show how badly inflation is… 

For What It’s Worth…  You know my position on ETF’s… I do not like them Sam, I do not like them with ham, I do not like them, Sam!  But they do show something that helps one with how much physical Silver is held… And the volume is flying off the shelves with Silver, and that article can be found here: 

Or, here’s you snippet: “Through the first half of 2025, inflows of silver into ETFs eclipsed the total for the entirety of 2024, reflecting a surge of silver investment demand.

The average annual price of silver rose 25 percent in H1. That was comparable to the 26 percent gain charted by gold.

Through the first six months of the year, 95 million ounces of silver flowed into ETFs globally. That pushed total fund holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, according to data compiled by the Silver Institute. That’s about 7 percent below the all-time high of 1.2 billion ounces hit in February 2021.

With the rising price of silver, the value of ETF holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding $40 billion for the first time.

ETF inflows were relatively constant through the first five months of the year, and then surged in June, with more than half the gains coming in the final month of H1. It was the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit silver squeeze in early 2021.

It’s important to consider the impact of this ETF on a market that is already operating at a supply deficit. Silver demand outstripped new supply for the fourth straight year in 2024 as industrial demand set another record.

A supply deficit means the surging industrial demand must pull from the existing above-ground supply. With investment demand increasing, the two sectors will have to bid against each other, potentially driving the price higher.”

Chuck again… not really… this is the end of that same article: “But while a silver ETF is a convenient way to play the price of silver on the market, you don’t actually possess any metal. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the silver either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have sometimes been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.”  

Market Prices 7/16/2025: American Style: A$.6520, kiwi .5984, C$ 7289, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3399, Swiss $1.2457, European Style: rand 17.9258, krone 10.3025, SEK 9.7583, forint 344.44, zloty 3.6684, koruna 21.2290, RUB 78.16, yen 148.69, sing 1.2850, HKD 7.85, INR 85.94, China 7.1806, peso 18.80, BRL 55569, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.58, Oil $65.93, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $38.01, Platinum $1,393.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3.339

That’s it for today and this week, as I’ll be at the hospital tomorrow for my monthly infusion… I think I’ve told you this before, but and if I have, forgive me for repeating, but the infusion room is one of the dreariest places on earth… I always want to get in and get out as fast as I can… Well, no baseball tonight, so I’ll have to watch something in place of baseball. UGH!  Darling daughter, Dawn comes over each day and gives swimming lessons to the little ones, and I love to sit outside and watch the little ones learn how to swim, and how their eyes light up when they realize they’re swimming on their own!  Deep Purple takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Hush…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, oh please, remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rallies continued on Monday
• Gold & Silver see their gains taken down…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A Great Show was put on by the contestants in the MLB Home Run Derby last night… There were some real bombs hit! The contest was won by the Home Run leader at the break Cal Raliegh… He’s hit 38 homers so far this year… That would be quite a year’s worth in most players’ minds… I had to watch this to take my mind off of the proceedings in the markets yesterday, we’ll get into that in a bit, but first… Eric Burdon and the Animals greet me this morning with their rock classic hit song: House of the Rising Sun… 

I recall back in the day when I wouldn’t miss a day playing my guitar, I learned this song and was quite pleased with myself! That was 55 years ago, at least! 

Well, the dollar got bought yesterday and continued the buying that took place the previous night.  The BBDXY ended the day yesterday up 6 index points on the day, and closed at $1,202… Well, the trashing of the dollar was fun while it lasted, eh? I read one pundit’s opinion that the dollar rallied because the POTUS announced new tariffs on our 2 top trade partners, The U.K and Mexico..  I don’t see how this favored the dollar, but it apparently did… 

Gold lost its early morning gain, and ended up with a loss on the day of $12… Silver, which earlier in the morning had traded at a 14-year high, had to give back the 60-cent gain it held in the A.M. and finished the day at $38.19… It seems that when the POTUS announced new tariffs on Mexico, that some traders took this to include Silver, of which Mexico is a HUGE exporter of Silver! That, and the short paper traders then decided to take a pound of flesh from Silver’s 14-year high… The short paper traders just couldn’t imagine they would still have their jobs if Silver closed higher in the $39 handle yesterday…  UGH! 

The price of Oil sunk on the tariff’s news too, with Oil’s price ending the day trading with a $66 handle… With U.S. consumers paying more and more for items that are sent to the U.S. and their disposable income circling the bowl… I doubt there will be much driving this fall to see the leaves… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield added another basis point to end the day trading with a 4.43% yield… I’m surprised that it was only 1 basis point… But, there’s nothing I can do about it, so I’ll just leave it that!

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY is down 1 index point to start our day to day at 1,201… Nothing going on there to write home about, so we’ll just move along… Gold is up in the early trading today… 

$13… Much like yesterday morning, that then saw the short paper traders take a pound of flesh from Gold… Silver is down 3-cents to start the day today.. 

Yes, the U.S. consumer is watching their disposable Income circle the bowl, and here’s one of the reasons why… An American family spending $4,000 pa on medication would pay $300 for identical drugs in China, $481 billion in GDP inflation through legalized extortion of US households.  I thank longtime readers, Bob, for sharing that info with me… 

The dollar has been getting sold lately, and suddenly the selling turned around…. Here are the folks at HSBC on Bloomberg.com with their thoughts:  “It was not long ago that a strong USD bubble was evident, but the opposite is occurring: an ‘anti bubble’ of sorts,” the strategists wrote. “‘Bubbly-like’ characteristics exist, which is a warning sign that a USD bottom may not be far away”

A bubble for the downward dollar? That seems a little too far-fetched to me, because I was looking at a long-term downward direction for the dollar… But que sera, sera, whatever will be will be… The future’s not ours to see, que sera, sera…  I beg to differ with the words in that song, I do see the future at times, and I share those times with you dear reader…  I’m just saying… 

Did you hear about the demands that the AI people and their AI machines are putting on power grids?  This is scary stuff folks, we could be looking at rolling blackouts when the dog days of summer are upon us…  For those that have seen this as a possibility and have purchased generators, good for you!   For those of us who haven’t, we had better get a line of large Cubes of Ice!   I’m just saying… 

The Russian ruble finally moved off the $78 handle it has held for a month of Sundays… Kiwi is getting sold after their Central Bank’s debasing of the currency.  The euro couldn’t stand prosperity when it was trading above the 1.18 figure, and now it’s mired in the 1.16 handle. The dollar’s mini rally has the currencies all running for the hills because if this dollar rally doesn’t prove to be a false dawn, then we’ll be in store for more dollar talk regarding the upside… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the STUPID CPI for June this morning.. I said yesterday that there was no way the STUPID CPI would show what we Americans feel as the inflation rate, but it will show that inflation increased in June,  and if it doesn’t, you can bet your bottom dollar that the BLS played games with the data…  That’s it for Data today… I guess the STUPID CPI is so important that it had to have its own day! NOT! There will also be 4 Fed Heads our speaking today… spreading more lies than a farmer spreads manure!

To recap… The dollar selling stopped on a dime, and HSBC says that the dollar was in a selling bubble that has now popped… In other words, the bottom has been reached…  Chuck argues that he doesn’t see it that way… Of course, you knew he would argue with that premise, didn’t you? Gold got sold yesterday, and Silver lost its 14-year high… UGH!

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at Gata sent me this article last week, and I finally got around to using it for my FWIW article… It’s about Gold and it can be found here: The Strategic Imperative of Domestic Gold Supply – DC Journal – InsideSources

Or, here’s your snippet: “In today’s unpredictable global environment, marked by persistent inflation, volatile interest rates and shifting trade dynamics, it’s easy to focus on geopolitics as the main driver behind gold’s enduring appeal.

However, deeper economic fundamentals are the real engine of its long-term strength. Structural deficits, sustained dollar weakness, mounting government budget deficits, and evolving global monetary policy are reshaping reserve strategies. 

Although gold prices have experienced a recent dip, the metal has shown strong resilience over the past year, buoyed by economic pressures rather than short-term market fluctuations. Price fluctuations are expected in any dynamic market, but they don’t diminish gold’s role as a reliable store of value.

Central banks, wary of inflation and weakening currencies, are shifting reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and buying gold at historic levels. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. acquired 600 tons of gold — an indication of growing institutional demand.

These monetary policy shifts and economic challenges indicate a significant potential for gold, reinforcing its strategic importance for investors and nations.”

Chuck again… yes, I’ve discussed all of the above reasons why Gold is so popular again, but as always, sometimes it takes hearing it from someone else to spur one’s action… 

Market Prices 7/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6562, kiwi .5992, C$ .7305, euro 1.1670, sterling 1.3444, Swiss $1.2547,  European Style: rand 17.8090, krone 10.1679, SEK 9.6493, forint 343.17, zloty 3.6469, koruna 21.1433, RUB 77.90, yen 147.92, sing 1.2816, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.61, China 7.1752, peso 18.68, BRL 1,201, Dollar Index 98.08, Oil $66.76, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,396.00, Palladium $1,222.00, Copper $5.55, and Gold… $3,357

That’s it for today… Crazy days… just right for taking a walk outside… early in the morning if you don’t want to deal with the heat of the day! While we’re out walking and thinking, think about whether or not you have enough Gold.  Just a friendly Spiderman reminder…  The MLB All-Star Game is tonight… I root for the National League, who when I was younger seemed to win every year, but not any longer… UGH!  When you had Bob Gibson, Fergy Jenkins, Don Drysdale to pitch for your team, you had a pretty darn good chance to win! Junior Walker & The All-Stars take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: What Does It Take?  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar recovers overnight at a quicker pace…
• Holy Cow, we booked a trade surplus!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were able to eke out a victory yesterday, after losing 2 to the Braves… It was a real nail biter, but after 4 hours of rain delays, the game finally ended… Tonight is the Home Run Derby and tomorrow night is the All-Star Game… Friday and Saturday were beautiful days of weather here, but Sunday brought rain… You have to have the rainy days to fully enjoy the sunny days, in my humble opinion!  Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his hit song: Secret Agent Man.. 

The dollar closed the week on Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY… It started the week weaker, and drifted higher as the week played out… The dollar continues to show that it wants to get weaker, but for some strange reason, it hasn’t.  And the euro has suffered because of that. The single unit ended the week at 1.1688… And the rest of the currencies all slumped downward VS the dollar.  No major moves, just small moves, but downward nonetheless…  

Gold finished last week on a good note… After gaining a measly $10 on Thursday, Gold took off on Friday, and fished the week up $32 to close the week at $3,356… Silver was the shining star on Friday, as it gained $1.38 to close the week at $38.44… That performance was long overdue from Silver, and much needed, if it’s going to reach $40 like so many pundits claimed a month ago… 

The price of Oil finished the week trading with a $68 handle… NO new news from the region so Oil traders were confident in pushing the envelope o the Oil price. The 10-year Treasury bond finished the week with a 4.42% yield…  Instead of listening to me, here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on the 10-year: “As I continue to point out in this spot every week, the 10-year hasn’t been allowed to trade above its 4.92% high tick set back on October 15, 2023 — and it’s more than obvious from the above chart that it will he held at something under 5% until further notice.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The other metals that we track all had phenomenal days on Friday last week, Platinum was up $45 to end the week at $1,409, and Palladium was up $73 to close at $1,236… And Copper ended the week at $5.60… In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter he always gives us the days of production needed to cover the short positions in all the metals, and I noticed that Copper is only needs 5 days of production to cover its short positions… And so, that means that there is very little interest in shorting Copper right now… And that should bode well for it to continue to rise…  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought at a greater pace than previously, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points overnight… The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,199… I read this morning that Wall Street is fearful of inflation returning, as well they should! The euro remains below the 1.17 to start our day/ week, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little worn out… The Euro Wannabes are still well bid, so we have that going for us!  

Gold is up to start our day/ week $12, and Silver is up 60-cents… If what I talked about above regarding Wall Street returning to a risk-off status because of their fear that inflation is returning, then that bodes well for these two metals…   Tensions are bound to return to the markets today, as the POTUS is going to make an announcement on Russia today…  So, watch for that… and trade accordingly…

The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and now trades with a $69 handle… inch-by-inch, the price of Oil recovers… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is rising again and starts our day/ week trading with a $4.43% yield.  Remember the wolf, aka, the Fed Heads are always at the door here, and could come in and do their yield curve control, aka price manipulation, at any time! 

Well, the U.S. Federal Budget was a surplus last month! Can you believe that? Well, it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat!  This from Reuters: “A first: U.S. customs-duty collections jumped in June, topping $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year and producing a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month.” As the great Harry Caray used to say: Holy Cow! So, I’m guessing the POTUS popped a bottle of champagne to celebrate this… 

But this is nothing more than a rounding error, folks… Our Debt is now $37 Trillion, and while I admit that the general public has no idea what the debt is, nor do they comprehend the size…  My favorite read, Matthew Piepenburg had this to say this past weekend, “Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.

This number alone is staggering.

The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.

1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.

Let that sink in for a moment.

If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.”

Chuck again… Matthew can be found here: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option?

I was reading Bill Bonner’s Newsletter on Friday, and he came up with some interesting ideas for fiscal policy for the U.S. These are very familiar as they echo my “debt solutions” Sunday Pfennig many years ago… Here’s Bill: “Anyone could spend a few minutes and come up with much better federal policies. How about this:

Quietly get rid of the violent criminals…then, set up a friendly guest-worker program for other immigrants.

Seriously cut government programs…reduce spending…balance the budget. Let Congress waste resources any way it wants…just so long as it doesn’t spend more than it gets in revenue.

Disband the Fed…re-establish a gold-backed dollar as America’s monetary standard…and let buyers and sellers of credit discover interest rates on their own.”

Chuck again, he also mentions bringing home all the soldiers from every nook and cranny all over the world. He wants to have a parade and celebrate their homecoming and then disband them… My thought on that was that we needed to bring them home and put them on the borders, North and South, and that would take care of our illegal immigration problem…  

But in the end, these are just thoughts, from logical thinking people, that will NEVER be implemented in our lifetimes, and it’s too darn bad!  Instead, we get the MAGIC Money Tree people, the Dick Cheney’s of the world, with is Debts don’t matter garbage, and others who talk about this resilient economy…  Chuckleheads, all of them… 

In other news from late last week, the POTUS announced a 50% tariff on Brazil’s export to the U.S.   Now this wasn’t your normal, “Let’s get the playing field even, kind of tariff” 

 Oh what the heck, I’m going to let Dave Gonigam from the 5 Bullets newsletter explain it to you, here’s Dave: “This is a novel use of tariffs… not to “level the playing field” when it comes to trade, nor to raise revenue for a cash-strapped federal government… but to meddle in the political affairs of other countries.”

I want to know why, oh why, we as a country continue to stick our noses in other countries’ business?  Just think of all the lives we could have kept from harm much less death, if we had just let these countries alone? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back to reporting real economic data this week, with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales and more… There’s nothing in the Data Cupboard today, but tomorrow, we see the STUPID CPI for June… I’m telling you now, that this data print will NOT represent what we as consumers are feeling as inflation… But it will tell us that inflation rose in June… I’m sure of that! 

To recap… The precious metals came roaring back to life on Friday last week, and all 5 of them added to their values… The dollar didn’t move much so it wasn’t dollar weakness that caused the metals to soar, it was rather the talk of more tariffs, that have just about ruled every day for some time now…  And overnight, the dollar was bought at a greater pace to start the day/ week at 1,199… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve long said that U.S. investors are not interested in Gold as a hedge for their investment portfolio and a store of wealth… This article goes into how Hong Kong Investors see Gold for just that… And if can be found here: Hong Kong Investors Have Nearly Tripled Their Gold Holdings

Or, here’s your snippet: “While many Western investors still haven’t hopped on the gold bandwagon, Asian investors have been piling up yellow metal.

For example, affluent Hong Kong investors have nearly tripled their gold holdings over the last year.

According to an HSBC survey, Hong Kong residents with $100,000 to $2 million in investable assets have allocated an average of 11 percent of their portfolios to gold and other precious metals. That was up from a 4 percent allocation just one year ago.

This reflects rising interest in gold and silver by Chinese and Asians more generally.

Investors in mainland China have even more exposure to gold, with an average of 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to precious metals. That was up from 7 percent last year.

Gold was up around 28 percent through the first half of this year. That follows on the heels of a 26 percent gain in 2024.

Asian investors and central bank gold buying have driven the gold bull so far. While physical gold investment surged in China (and Asia more broadly) last year, it remained tepid in the U.S. For instance, gold bar and coin sales surged 12 percent to 124 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 38 percent of global Q1 bar and coin investment. Meanwhile, gold coin and bar sales fell to the lowest level in five years in the U.S.

According to the Financial Times, gold has become the most attractive investment option in the midst of a Chinese real estate crisis and a bear market in stocks.”

Chuck Again…  this article really nails what I’ve been talking about or years now… I also know that many of you dear readers already have taken positions in physical Gold… So, to you, I’m preaching to the choir! 

Market Prices 7/14/2025: American Style: A$.6565, kiwi .5989, C$ .7312, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3481, Swiss $1.2555, European Style: rand 17.8690, krone 10.1037, SEK 9.5876, forint 332.36, zloty 3.6447, koruna 21.0871, RUB 78.09, yen 147.32, sing 2.2810, HKD 7.85, INR 85.98, China 7.1674, peso 18.69, BRL 5.5594, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $69.52, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $39.05, Platinum $1,398.00, Palladium $1,251, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3,369

That’s it for today…  Well, early warning that this week will be a short one, as I am to report to the hospital early Thursday morning, for needles, and a visit with my oncologist, oh, and there’s also an infusion…  For those of you wondering… The tumor in my jaw has stopped shrinking… This is not good news, but it hasn’t started growing again, so that is good news… So, my visit with my oncologist will be important… And next week I leave on my annual summer vacation next Saturday…  YAHOO! This time I’ll be on a plane without an oxygen tank! Thank goodness for that! The Great Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love Me…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to get bought by bits and pieces
• We live in a world of Opposites….

Good Day… And a Tub Thmpin’ Thursday to one and all! What an embarrassment outing for the Cardinals’ pitchers last night… I think the team has gone about as far as they can go with 3 of their starters… Their luck has run out! Do you hear me Mo? (The GM) The World Cup will be back in 2026, with games in a host of countries… Isn’t it about time for the U.S. team to make a run in the tournament? Well, if a ton of the boys that sit in their parents’ basement playing video games would play the game, we maybe could find a super star!  War greets me this morning with their great 70s song: Low Rider…

A chamber of commerce day here yesterday… I sat outside reading for a long time until the heat of the day Started to get to me… Then returned outside in the late afternoon, until the baseball game started. I then subjected myself to Yet another badly pitched game by the Cardinals… this has been occurring too often lately… UGH! The GM had better get some starting pitching at the Trade Deadline, or this team is toast! Blue Swede greets me this morning with their version of a 60’s song done in the 70’s: Hooked On A Feeling

When I left you yesterday, the dollar had been bought overnight, and sat at 1,196 to start the day… And the dollar ended the day at 1,196, so no gain, no loss on the day for the green/peachback…  The euro remained above the 1.17 handle and the rest of the currencies kind of drifted along throughout the day… Gold turned things around for once, in the last week and rallied. Gold gained $12 to close the day at $3,312… Silver didn’t turn things around and lost ground on Wednesday to the tune of 32-cents to close at $36.31… 

I read last night that the World Gold Council, which is normally a very conservative outfit, not wanting to hype Gold, had come out with a statement  that went something like this: “Gold will continue to benefit from the U.S.’s debt and financial instability, and doesn’t have to rely on a financial crisis for its rally”… 

Chuck again… so, if this normally stick in the mud kind of organization sees the U.S. having fiscal instability, and says it out loud, then we should sit up and notice, and take action… Got Gold?

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday… I also read that there is still no peace in the Middle East, with the Houthis taking over ships and sinking them.  So, as long as the Oil tankers can get by, the price of Oil should remain well-bid… 

The 10-year Treasury saw some buying yesterday, (From whom?) and its yield dropped to 4.33%, from 4.41% where it started the day… That’s a big drop for one day’s trading folks, so there must have been some major sized trades going through.. .You know, if it smells like the Fed Heads, and Walks like the Fed Heads, and talks like the Fed Heads, then it must have been The Fed Heads doing to the buying!  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying was light, but the BBDXY did gain 1 index point overnight, so we start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,197… The euro is back above 1.17, for now, and the rest of the currencies have held their gains VS the dollar, but have stopped gaining VS the dollar, for now, that is… The Euro Wannabes continue to be well bid, and that’s a good sign… So, how’s your diversification of your investment portfolio going? Gold has given back the $12 it gained yesterday, in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 13-cents to start the day… 

The price of Oil has slipped back to the $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.34% to start today…  

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been rumored to be ready to cut rates at their next meeting, but in a surprising move the RBNZ left rates unchanged yesterday, and that took some of the pressure off the currency (kiwi) and allowed it to climb back over the .60-cent level… 

Yesterday, I talked about Copper and how the POTUS had announced a 50% tariff on imports, and that Copper’s price had skyrocketed… Well, there was no backing off of the announcement yesterday, so Copper’s price continued to rise, and ended the day at $5.61… I had lamented yesterday that a rising Copper price will make EVERYTHING go higher in price… But don’t let that get in the way of a good story… I shake my head in disbelief…

Yesterday, the Fed Heads released their FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting, and guess what? The Fed Heads are confused! No way, C’mon Chuck tell us another one!  All kidding aside, here’s ZeroHedge.com with their thought on the FOMC Meeting Minutes: “Since the last FOMC meeting (June 18th), which saw a hawkish tilt to the dots (with Fed members notably divided – nearly as many participants anticipated no rate cuts this year as expected two), we have seen stronger-than-expected jobs data, constant diatribes from the president that ‘too late’ Powell should be cutting rates, and some tariff developments that supported Powell’s pause.

Stocks have melted up since the FOMC meeting (even as macro has weakened – bad news is good news)…

…while crude was clubbed like a baby seal (Israel-Iran ‘peace’) as bonds have been very modestly bid against dollar and gold weakness…

Rate-cut odds have risen modestly for 2025 since The FOMC meetings (two full cuts priced in, but July off the table) but are well down from pre-payrolls levels…

And both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data has weakened relative to expectations since the last FOMC…”

Chuck again… the article goes on to talk about how the Fed Heads are divided on their outlook for inflation from the tariffs, with some of the Fed Heads talking about stagflation…  

Confusing I know, but that’s their mantra… Confuse, and keep the markets guessing… 

The POTUS doubled down on his attack on Copper yesterday, when he reminded everyone that the 50% tariffs on Copper will begin on August 1… That’s 3 weeks away!  Oh, and what did the price of Copper do after traders heard that?  It rallied again, and starts today at $5.60

In our world of Opposites, bad news is good for prices, and vice versa…  And it’s not just in the U.S…. Take Switzerland for example… They debased their currency last month with a rate cut, and then went on to talk about how if they had to take rates to negative, they would have no qualms about doing so… That should have deep-sixed the franc, but instead since the rate announcement the franc has been rallying…  Go Figure… 

I already talked about the FOMC meeting minutes above, and that was it for the U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday… Today’s Data Cupboard only has the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…   And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard just has one print and it’s the Monthly Federal Budget data… That should be something! 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought a bit last night, as it gained 1-index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,197… Gold can’t find a good strong bid these days, but that’ doesn’t mean the Gold rally is over, it just means this is a consolodation period… Even the World Gold Council thinks the price of Gold will get back to rising…  Copper is still rallying on tariffs news, and Chuck talks about the Opposites effect that has inflitrated the markets these days…

For What It’s Worth… A lot of traders are puzzled about the tariffs on Gold & Silver Bullion, and this is the reason why… This article can be found here: Whether 145% or 10%, tariff uncertainty is enough to stop U.S. gold and silver imports, distort the metals market at all levels – Experts | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold prices have pulled back since the United States and China announced the lowering of trade tariffs for 90 days amid ongoing negotiations. But whether tariffs today are 145%, 30%, or 10%, the uncertainty gripping U.S. trade continues to make meaningful importing activities impossible. And despite early indications that precious metals would be exempt from Trump’s tariffs, trade activity in the sector is far from normal.

Josh Phair is the CEO of Scottsdale Mint. He said that while the headline may be ‘Gold and Silver Imports are Tariff-Free’, the reality is not nearly so simple.

“They said that bullion is exempted,” Phair told Kitco News. “But if we start looking at a lot of the tariff codes, everyone’s going to need to know exactly what is considered bullion, because in our industry we call coins bullion, like from Perth Mint, for example, but that actually is legal tender. It’s a monetary bullion product.”

Phair said it’s not a straightforward process to determine whether something is tariffed or not, especially when it fits into two or more categories.

“It looks like we’ve got some clarity on a piece of it, but a lot of people are waiting to know everything,” he said. “What nobody wants is to bring in a $10 million shipment of something and get slapped with $1 million-plus in taxes. It feels like the whole world is waiting for clarity.”

Chuck Again… I would agree with Mr. Phair on this… I’ll keep you updated on this, but if tariffs do become part of the Precious Metals trade, then some real changes in the prices of these metals will occur… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6555, kiwi.6015, C$ .7309, euro 1.1715, sterling 1.3576, Swiss $1.2569, European Style: rand 17.7530, krone 10.0742, SEK 9.5144, forint 340.44, koruna 21.0294, RUB 77.79, yen 146.36, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.64, China 7.1750, peso 18.63, BRL 5.5729, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.53, Oil $67.80, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $36.68, Platinum $1,352.00, Palladium $1,146.00, Copper $5.68, and Gold… $3,324

That’s it for today and this week… You know I’m so happy that I decided to take 3-day weekends every week a few years ago, and that no one had a major problem with it… Some readers weren’t happy with me, but they got over it, with time…  I would tell them, “you know, I AM RETIRED?”  Well, semi-retired I guess, since I do wake up with the farmers 4 days a week to write… I’ve gained about 7 lbs since I started being able to keep down food again… I don’t like gaining weight, but the doctors sure do… not to the weight I was in 2020… but from the weight I was 4 weeks ago!  I was pushing the weight loss envelope too far 4 weeks ago anyway!  Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… Yes, music was always the best to listen to with headphones on… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler