Author: admin

• The dollar continued to get sold on Monday…
• But the SPTs were out and about too!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, back on steroids for a week has fixed my digestive system problems, so I’m a happy camper this morning, after having a restful night of sleep with no interruptions… It snowed again yesterday and then again last night… Not a ton of snow, we got 6 inches on Sat, and 2 or 3 yesterday… The commutes around the area have been slow, and I’m so glad that I didn’t have to go out in this mess and report to work! I used to always be the first one in and then my phone would start ringing and it would be employees asking me how the roads were… I always told them they were fine for me, just to get them to be brave and come in to work! I’m listening to Stephen Kummer’s Trio on the CD player this morning and it’s his CD titled: Christmas In The City… 

Well, I shouldn’t have made the statement about the SPTs coming back yesterday, because as soon as they arrived at their desks, Gold began to lose its early morning $33 gain, and soon it was struggling to maintain a positive gain on the day, but that wouldn’t be, as the SPT’s left Gold down $20 on the day at $4,218…  Silver, on the other hand, was still being able to trade on its own devices, and it gained $93-cents on the day to end the day at $57.13… 

I have a alternative viewpoint for you on Silver’s big move last Friday… Check this out: “Again…”Silver’s initial post-Thanksgiving lift-off was rumored to be the result of some 400 million ounces of the metal standing for delivery — with such delivery being impossible to accomplish, thus leading “someone” to blink out the entire Comex trading system.

That interruption in Comex trading was officially blamed on the failure of the cooling system in a data center, with the double- or triple-redundant nature of such systems adding fuel to the conspiratorial fire.” That came to me from the good folks at GATA, and that’s none other than Brien Lundin talking in his weekly letter than can be found here: www.goldnewsletter.com

Chuck again… Hmmm.. Conspiracy stories, I love them! I used to get called on the carpet all the time for telling my conspiracy stories, that through time have become conspiracy facts!  But I’m no longer working for a company that was afraid of what I might say, and I’ve grown or matured a little more through the years, so I don’t go out on limbs any longer, but this conspiracy theory has a lot of legs to it, I think…  think about this: the COMEX is about to have a deficit in physical Silver, so what to do? Pull the fire alarm and distract everyone…  Oh yeah, there’s something there, but no journalist has the cajónes to look under the hood, and so we’ll just go along thinking that there was an electrical problem…  

But if 400 million ounces of Silver were standing for delivery, that means the COMEX would be short Silver… And they couldn’t have that happening so, they pulled the fire alarm! Much like when I was in grade school, it always seemed that the fire alarm would go off right when it was coming to my turn to answer a math problem! 

The dollar spent the day, much like some of the cars on the snowy roads, spinning its wheels, and ended the day in the same clothes as it started the day, with the BBDXY remaining at 1,217…  In the early morning, the dollar was getting sold and the BBDXY was down 2 index points… But as the day went along, the dollar fought back and ended unchanged for the day. 

The price of Oil bumped higher again and ended the day trading with a $59 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose higher again this time to end the day with a 4.09% yield… Isn’t the rate cut supposed to happen next week? Then why are the bond boys selling bonds?  Well, to me it seems that investors are demanding higher yields, to combat inflation that’s rising… Yeah, that’s the answer! 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar selling stopped, for the time being that is… The BBDXY is up 1 index point to start our day, but in reality, it’s still drifting about the sea with traders not sure whether to take it lower with the rate cut looming on the horizon tomorrow.  The euro is still trading above the 1.16 handle this morning, so not is all lost with the currencies… 

Gold is starting the day down, as the SPTs are out and about… Gold is down $8 to start the day today, and Silver is down 23-cents…  After going over several handles, Silver was bound to see some selling, and so we start out day with Silver on its heels…  The price of Oil remained in the $59 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some more yield added to its yield to 4.11%… I find this very interesing that the yield of the 10-year is rising in th face of a rate cut coming next week… 

Did you hear that the Gov’t’s Rep Facility is working overtime again?  Tons of cash is being dispersed using the facility to banks… Hmmm… Seems I’ve heard this before… where-o-where have I heard that? Oh, yeah! Remember in March 2020,  the banks were hitting the facility like Hank Aaron hit baseballs, and then along came the Covid plandemic and the Fed’s suspended the facility for a while, and then no one heard of it until recently, when the facility was used to facilitate loans to banks that totaled $10 Billion…  There’s something going on here folks, that’s fishy to me…  So, I’ll keep my ear to the ground and try to figure it out, but my spider’s sense is tingling and that tells me that something bad is going on…  

Well, I got curious about how long Gold has been booking monthly gains… And it went back to last June when Gold finished the month at $3,303… Seems like a long time ago, right? September saw the biggest monthly gain of $528…  And Rocktober saw the lowest amount of gain (remember the daily pounds of flesh the SPTs were taking in Rocktober?)  $28…   Someone was spouting off about how the stock market has gone up so many months in a row…  and I thought but what about Gold?  And just for further intrigue by me, Gold has gained $1,420 from 12/31 to yesterday’s close… Pretty impressive, and to me, it’s really good run is yet to come…  

I read yesterday that investors are no longer buying physical Gold to watch it go to $5,000 and then sell… They are holding it through its gyrations of price for the protection it provides…  Well, I would really like to see the numbers that they used to get to that thought…  Because it’s has been my contention that investors in the West use Gold as a trading vehicle… And Silver too… But we’re talking about Gold here, and profit taking is a part of their vocabulary and practice it all the time… I’m just saying…

And Silver is going great guns right now too… and in my view it’s all about the shortage in physical Silver that I’ve talked about for years… This from Kitco.com: “the strain emerging across the physical supply chain. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, according to exchange data. China also exported roughly 660 metric tons of silver to London in October, an unusually large shipment that traders say helped ease tightness after a surge in delivery requests on the LBMA.”

Chuck again… Central Banks are turning to physical Gold & Silver for their reserves instead of dollars or whatever currency belongs to their biggest trading partner…  And I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again… My dad taught me to “follow the money”…  And the money is going to Gold & Silver right now…  Again, I’m just saying…

The dollar has two major headwinds blowing right at it… The Tariffs that will cause inflation, job losses, and promises… And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is on a rate cut cycle, that debases the dollar….  So, if you were a Central Banks, and had credit from trade and taxation, would you put the credit in dollar reserves or Gold or Silver? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ISM manufacturing index for this current month, and it fell from 48.8 to 48.2… Hey! Weren’t the tariffs supposed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S?  Well, apparently, they are slow to respond, as the manufacturing index is falling instead of rising…   Today’s Data Cupboard only has Auto Sales for November to print…  And tomorrow we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for Nov… this should be good fodder for the markets…

To recap… The STPs made sure that investors knew that they were still around when they took Gold down yesterday… Silver actually trading albeit briefly, above $58 only to see it get smacked down to the $57 handle, still a gain on the day, but not as great a gain as it once had earlier…  Chuck goes through the number for Gold this year… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I saw this and was shocked! I thought the Tariffs were supposed to relieve us of our debt?  What gives? This article talks about how the budget deficit in Rocktober was the largest deficit ever, and it can be found here: Feds Run Biggest October Budget Deficit Ever Despite Record Tariff Revenue

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal government took in a record amount of tariff revenue in October. It also ran the highest October budget deficit on record.

The Trump administration spent $284.35 billion more than it took in to kick off fiscal 2026. That was about 10 percent higher than last year’s October deficit and about $200 million more than the previous October record set in 2020 during the pandemic lockdown era.

The deficit was inflated by the shifting of some November benefit payments back into October.  If we factor out those calendar effects, the deficit would have been $180 billion. While a 29 percent reduction from last year’s October deficit, it would still rank in the top four highest October shortfalls on record.

Keep in mind that Uncle Sam ran this massive deficit while the government was “closed.” A Treasury Department official told Reuters that it was unclear how much spending was reduced by the government shutdown, but estimated it was less than five percent of total outlays.

Salaries and other outstanding obligations that were not paid during the shutdown are now due, as the government is fully operational again. That means we could see a spike in spending in November.

Record monthly tariff receipts totaled $31.4 billion. That was a 330.1 percent increase in customs receipts compared to October 2025.

It should be clear that claims that the federal government is going to use tariff revenue to pay a “dividend” to poor and middle-class taxpayers and pay down the national debt are nothing but political rhetoric. Math is the great enemy of this ambitious plan.”

Chuck again… remember that the budget deficits go directly to the National Debt and do not pass Go or collect $200…   And I saw last week that we as a country, go through $1 Trillion of debt every 100 days…  a little more than 3 months…  How long can this go on?

Market Prices 12/2/2025: American Style: A$ .6553, kiwi .5724, C$ .7140, euro 1.1619, sterling 1.3207, Swiss $1.2434, European Style: rand 17.1047, krone 10.1540, SEK 9.4589, forint 327.87, zloty 3.6479, koruna 20.7998, RUB 77.28, yen 155.96, sing 1.2975, HKD 7.7864, INR 89.87, China 7.0714, peso 18.31, BRL 5.3587, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 99.42, Oil $59.17, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $57.48, Platinum $1,637.00, Palladium $1,487.00, Copper $5.27, and Gold… $4,210

That’s it for today…  I looked at flights going to our winter home yesterday, and think I have one for us, leaving 12/30…  We don’t like more than 1 change in planes, and no more than 5 hours travel time, so that narrows the available flights by quite a bit… Our Blues really laid an egg last night VS the Ducks… UGH! Baby, it’s Cold Outside! And you know me, I totally dislike the cold weather! I ‘m all bundled up and not enjoying myself sitting outside these days… Oh well… 12/30 can’t get here fast enough for me… Not that I want to rush through Christmas, it’s just that I need to get out of here!  The Stephan Kummer Trio plays the Christmas Waltz for a song at the finish line today… So, I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets sold every day last week!
• Silver is the leader of the Pack!

Good Day.. And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was grand… Mine was, although I suffered from a bad stomach all day… And Friday too! UGH! I’m having the same reaction to my infusion that I did in August… That’s not good, folks… They may have to take me off the chemo drug I’m getting infused In me once a month… And then I’m left with nothing, nada, nil, zlich, zero to fight cancer that’s in me… So, let’s hope my digestive system heads quickly, so we don’t go down that rabbit hole… It’s time for Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station, and today Boney James is playing his sax to: Sleigh Ride

Well,  on Wednesday last week, the dollar traded in the same clothes as it wore on Tuesday and the BBDXY remained at 1,223. I guess all the senior traders set out to head home wherever that may be, early, and the junior traders were scared little girls to make a call on the dollar. 

On Thursday, our Thanksgiving Day, the foreign markets sold the dollar and it ended the day at 1,219 down 4 index points in the BBDXY. 

There was some action, mostly SPTs on Thursday in Gold & Silver… Gold ended the day down $7 and Silver down 4-cents… 

The junior traders that were in charge of the trading on Friday, still wouldn’t make a call, on anything, but the foreign markets did, and the dollar got sold some more, this time down 2 index points in the BBDXY.

And with no SPTs to show for, the metals traded on their own devices Friday and hit the ball out of the park! Gold gained $62 and Silver gained a whopping $3.09… Gold finished the week at $4220 and Silver at $56.35… See what I mean when I say if the metals were left to their own devices and not under the pressure of the SPTs? 

The BBDXY ended the week at 1217, which was down from 1223 to start the week, and down from 1226 the Friday before…  When you debase the currency, this is what you get, and nowadays you get it before the actual rate cut, because of futures trading, which by the way stock futures ran into a roadblock power outage on Friday… Too bad all futures had a power outage here after!  I can only wish…

The good folks at FXStreet.com that post my Pfennig each day, wrote this morning that the dollar index fell every day last week, for the first time since April…  and starts this week with a heavy bias to fall further, ahead of the next FOMC meeting next week. 

Chuck again… so, the euro has climbed back over the 1.16 handle to start our day/ week and appears ready to take on any dollar weakness in the coming days. The Chinese renminbi was allowed to trade with a 7.07 handle… And the rest of the currencies including the two leaders last week, the Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble are following the Big Dog euro down the street to chase the dollar… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $58 handle, and the 10-year Treasury, after briefly falling to a 3.99% yield, ended the week with a 4.01% yield.  

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar continued to get sold, with the BBDXY showing another 2-index point loss to 1,215… And Silver continues its charge through Richmond…  Silver is up 97-cents this morning, and has gone above the .57-cents handle… Gold is also charging ahead and has added $33 to start our day and week, Gold is at $4,253…  The metals bugs have come back to their desks after the Thanksgiving week holiday… And they say, that Political, Fiscal, and Financial Risks are enough for them to take the metals to new heights…  And I didn’t even mention geopolitical problems…  

Silver seems to be the leader of the pack, that is until the SPTs come back and take a pound of flesh from Silver’s gains last week. I know, I know that it’s not good to think about bad things happening before they do, but then that’s how I think, so let’s just hope that the same thing doesn’t happen to the leader of the pack that happened to the leader of the pack in the song by the Shangri-Las…. 

The interest rate futures are pricing in an 80% chance of a FOMC rate hike next week, so there will be no surprises, next week…  The POTUS announced that he has already picked out his replacement for Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell…  And this new guy will be leading the call for lower rates, but the same members of the FOMC will remain and that will be a sticking point for the FNG… (As my good friend Ty Keough, used to call anyone new on the trading desk)  Recall that 3 members of the FOMC voting group questioned the need for further rate cuts after the last rate cut? Well, we’ll see convicted they are about their positions next week… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $59 handle in the past 24 hours, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has bumped higher to start the day/ week with a 4.04% yield… The bond boys seem to have said to themselves last week… “what are we doing? We should wait-n-see if the FOMC does indeed cut rates before we price it in”…  

Did you hear that the BLS will NOT issue a jobs report for Rocktober?  Why not? I hear you asking… I really don’t know why, maybe they’re just to lazy to cook and massage the numbers, or, there was no one to take the surveys, and now to go back to add them all up would be very laborious… Gov’t workers, what do you expect, A-One work habits, when the worst that can happen is that you get promoted? 

Here I go carping and complaining about the Gov’t again… When they are as much to blame for the mess we as a country are in right now, as the Fed/Cabal/Cartel… 

Here’s Bill Bonner on Money Supply, which in my definition is inflation, but I digress, here’s Bill: “the money supply (M2) in the US just hit a new record high, at $22 trillion. That’s up from just $650 billion in 1971, when the Funny Money Era began. In that year, GDP was around $1.2 trillion; it’s now $28 trillion. In other words, the money supply has grown about half-again-as-much as the supply of goods and services.

And public and private debt — the dark side of credit — has gone up even more…from 125% of GDP in 1971, it is now around 260% of GDP. In other words, for every dollar’s worth of GDP in 1971 (before the Funny Money Era began) there was $1.25 of debt. Today, there is $2.60. That’s an additional 135% of GDP — or $38 trillion worth of spending that is untraceable to any increase in output. Naturally prices have gone up to absorb the additional liquidity.”

Chuck again…  Bill was giving his  “Thanks” for funny money…  Bill always hits the nail on the head! And to think that I complain about the Gov’t too much! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn’t have as much data as last week, and the real meat gets printed on Friday, but between then and now, we’ll see the ISM for Sept, which will be old and stale, and who will care? Not the markets, that’s for sure…  On Wednesday, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for Nov. And THAT WILL BE LOOKED AT BY THE MARKETS, for any assurances that the Fed Heads will cut rates next week on 12/11… 

To recap… It was a whirlwind week for the metals last week, as the SPTs were gone by Tuesday and the metals were left to their own devices… It was not a banner week for the dollar, and appears to have returned to its underlying weak trend…  Money Supply issuance just hit a record level, and Private Debt is soaring! 

For What It’s Worth… not too wordy today on the FWIW article… The main thing is going to the link and viewing the chart that appears and then read along about since the implementation of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel the dollar’s purchasing power has gone to hell in a hand basket… You can find the chart here: Charted: The Declining Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar

Or, here’s your snippet: “The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen over time due to inflation and the ever-growing money supply.

The U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, ending dollar convertibility to gold.

Western powers developed the Bretton Woods Agreement after WWII, which saw all national currencies valued in relation to the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar has steadily lost value over the past century. According to Federal Reserve data, the purchasing power of one dollar today is equal to just a few cents in 1913 (the year the Fed was created).

In this graphic, we track the decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar since the early 1900s, illustrating how inflation has eroded its value.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). It measures the “Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar” across all U.S. city averages, indexed to consumer prices.

The higher the index, the more purchasing power the dollar has. As the index declines, goods and services become relatively more expensive.

Inflationary Eras and Economic Shocks

Major inflationary periods can be identified by looking at the steepest drops in the chart. For example, World War I and World War II strained government finances, leading to massive increases in public spending and money creation, which pushed prices sharply higher.

Similarly, the oil shocks of the 1970s caused energy costs to spike throughout the world, feeding into broad-based inflation. In each case, rising prices significantly eroded the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.”

Chuck again, and again go to the link above to see the chart. It’ll blow your mind that our currency has lost so much purchasing power…  And it’s not MY fault, or your fault either; it’s the Gov’t. Treasury, and Fed Cabal that’s to blame!

Market Prices 12/1/2025: American Style: A$ .6556, kiwi .5739, C$ .7160, euro 1.1637, sterling 1.3252, Swiss $1.2468, European Style: rand 17.0801, krone 10.1143, SEK 9.4193, forint 326.98, zloty 3.6341, koruna 20.7623, RUB 77.79, yen 154.95, sing 1.2943, HKD 7.7888, INR 89.55, China 7.0716, peso 18.27, 10-year 4.04%, Silver $57.32, Platinum $ 1,695.00, Palladium $ 1,457.00, Copper $5.30, and Gold… $4,253.00

That’s it for today… Well, November is over thank goodness, and now onto December, which if it wasn’t the onset of really cold weather I would appreciate it even more… So, Welcome to December… I haven’t thought of a thing to buy Kathy for Christmas yet… I hope I come up with something soon… My days of getting her something that she really loved are over, if she wants something, she buys it, leaving me out of ideas…  Any help would be appreciated!  Lisa, Lynn, Dawn, Rachel, Grace?   My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their last regular season game on Saturday against Rival Arkansas; that leave us with an 8-4 record, which used to be a highlight, but not any more with the new Mizzou Tigers! …  The Stephan Kummer Trio plays: It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year as our finish line song today… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to get sold overnight
• Adam Sandler greets us this morning…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, yesterday was kind of a washout for me, as I slept through the day… I know I’ve told you this but I truly believe that your body tells you when you need sleep… And apparently, I needed sleep! I woke up in time to hear little Evie running through the house upstairs… She came over to “help” Kathy prepare for Thanksgiving… Yeah, help… as if!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers Basketball team won their game last night by 33 points! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Time Passages… 

Pfennig Tradition calls for the Thanksgiving song by Adam Sandler: Love to eat turkey

‘Cause it’s good Love to eat turkey Like a good boy should ‘Cause it’s turkey to eat

So good

Turkey for me

Turkey for you

Let’s eat the turkey In my big brown shoe

Love to eat the turkey At the table

I once saw a movie With Betty Grable

Eat that turkey All night long

Fifty million Elvis fans

Can’t be wrong

Turkey lurkey doo and

Turkey lurkey dap

I eat that turkey

Then I take a nap

Well, the dollar selling stopped in the overnight markets Monday night.. As I reported yesterday, the dollar has lost 3 index points to 1,223… And that’s where it remained the rest of the day.  And I mentioned the SPTs always being at the door like the wolf, and there they were at the COMEX with arms full of short Gold paper trades… Gold’s $14 gain early in the morning turned into a loss on the day of $4… Silver didn’t avoid the SPTs and ended up gaining 11-cents, after being up 31-cents at the start of the day.  I have something for you regarding Silver in the FWIW section today, so you’ll not want to miss that! 

The price of Oil bumped back higher to trade with a $58 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield held onto the 4 handle for yield, ending the day right smack dad on 4.00% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Once again, the dollar got sold overnight and sits this morning with the BBDXY at 1,222…  The euro continues to remain in the 1.15 handle although yesterday it inched toward the 1.16 level only to be brought back to the mid-1.15 handle. The currencies, as a whole, have remained stuck in the mud, as the dollar is kept above the 1.20 level in the BBDXY. The two currencies showing any pulse at all are the Chinese renminbi and the Russian ruble… The two currencies from the two countries that at odds with the U.S.  

I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not, but the Chinese renminbi is trading around 7.07… However, it’s still miles away from its 2022 level of 6.23… So, this stronger renminbi is welcomed, it needs to get going to get back to 2022 levels! 

The price of Oil remained in the $57 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield saw a bump higher to 4.01%…  Gold is up $22 to start our day, and Silver if up 56-cents… Silver has gone over the $52 handle this morning… Make sure you see the FWIW article today on Silver… 

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut their Official Cash Rate 25 Basis Points last night, even though inflation rose to 3% in New Zealand… The RBNZ says that the economy has a lot of slack in it and so they believe inflation will drop in 2026…  Hmmm… Seems to me that they would wait to cut rates until they actually saw inflation drop… But then I think logically, something that I would never accuse a Central Banker of doing! 

I think that New Zealand dollar Traders had already priced in the rate cut, as kiwi fell previously to a 56-cent level… and the new rate cut didn’t budge kiwi from that level… At least initially that is… 

The Big hoopla these days, i.e. Cisco, and the dot.coms , is Artificial Intelligence or AI…  Well, I just have one question for the hypsters selling AI…    and it centers around this I found on www.oilprice.com “The exponential energy demand of AI-driven data centers, particularly from high-performance accelerated servers (GPUs and ASICs), is rapidly outpacing global energy efficiency trends, leading to a projected doubling of data center electricity consumption by 2030.

Despite major tech companies’ net-zero pledges, the sheer velocity of the AI buildout forces a reliance on reliable baseload power from fossil fuels like coal and natural gas through 2030, with nuclear power viewed as the long-term, carbon-free solution.”

The question is : Where will all the power to run AI come from? I’m just asking… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard was chock-full-0-data yesterday.. Stale, old data, but data to mull over and make a call on whether it’s useful for not…  One piece of data that I call the STUPID Consumer Confidence report printed for this month, so it’s up to data, and fell to a level that hasn’t been seen since COVID…  Retail Sales for Sept were up .2%, no biggie, and in a “back to school sales month too”  And PPI for Sept was 2.9% annual…  remember PPI is wholesale inflation and it is a good indicator of what the STUPID CPI consumer inflation will be when it prints… wholesale inflation feeds consumer inflation… 

To recap… The dollar quit getting sold yesterday as soon as the U.S. took over from the overnight markets where the selling had taken place.  And the SPTs took a chunk out of Gold and caused it to lose $4 on the day…  the two currencies showing any pulse are the Chinese renminbi and the Russian ruble… Go figure, that they are the two currencies of the countries at odds with the U.S.  Hmmm….   I don’t know what to make of that at this moment, but something tells me that there’s something there… I’m just seeing it…   

For What it’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had something for you regarding Silver and this is it… I learned something new here that India was the World’s second highest consumer of Silver! Who knew?  Oh well, you can find the article here: Could India Be the Straw That Broke the Silver Camel’s Back?

Or, here’s your snippet: “Could India be the straw that broke the silver camel’s back?

Most people associate India with gold, but the country also ranks as the world’s top silver consumer.

As we reported yesterday, one of the reasons for silver’s surge to record levels in recent days is a shortage of available silver in London. This is being partly driven by voracious demand in India.

India’s silver market reveals deep structural problems indicative of the broader global market.

Simply put, there isn’t enough silver. And risks of a major blowup are mounting.

Demand for silver in India began to surge earlier this year after the white metal zoomed to new all-time highs in rupee terms.

With growing investor interest in silver during an environment when gold seems pricey, a silver supply shortfall in India also sent the price to a significant premium locally.

Supply simply can’t keep up.

Initially, Indian buyers were primarily sourcing silver from Hong Kong, but they reportedly shifted more toward London during the Chinese Golden Week Holiday in the first week of October. This has exacerbated the silver shortage in London.”

Chuck Again…I’ve been reporting the shortage in Silver for 10 years, and it has always worked out, but this time we may see Silver really react to the shortage of supply… I guess we’ll see, eh?

Market Prices 11/26/2025: American Style: A$ .6490, kiwi .5671, C$ .7097, euro 1.1571, sterling 1.3182, Swiss $1.2391, European Style: rand 17.1503, krone 10.2314, SEK 9.5331, forint 330.24, zloty 3.6567, koruna 20.0340, RUB 78.57, yen 156.50, sing 1.2984, HKD 7.7778, INR 89.2725, China 7.0797, peso 18.37, BRL 5.3854, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 99.83, Oil $ 57.83, 10-year  Silver $52.29, Platinum $1,566.00, Palladium $1,432.00, Copper $5.17, and Gold… $4,155

That’s it for today and this week, as tomorrow is Thanksgiving… I don’t know about you, but I love to hear Adam Sandler sing the Turkey Song, he has made me laugh for 35  years as a part time cast member the show: Remote Control…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers play their last regular season football game on Saturday for the Border Trophy with Arkansas…  And my first grandson, Everett will celebrate his 14^th birthday… Everett normally doesn’t say much around me, but a couple of weeks ago, he talked my ear off! I was stunned! Trooper takes us to the finish line today with their 60’s hit song: Round, Round We Go… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and a Blessed Thanksgiving, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• The RBA is reconsidering their rate cuts…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I woke up yesterday to weakness in my right leg and then pain when I walked… OH NO! I said to myself, as this is how 7 years ago, I ended up with infection around the titanium prosthesis that I have for my hip and partially of my femur… It required me having surgery on the leg to get the infection out, and then weeks of antibiotics every 4 hours… And learning to walk again, without the walker…  I even called my orthopedist and booked an appt for today to get the process going. But then as the day went on, the pain went away, and the weakness was gone! YIPPEE!  I don’t know what was going on there, but I’m just happier than a lark that it isn’t a recurrence of the infection of 7 years ago! A-ha greets me this morning with their great 80’s song: Take Me On

For the life of me I can’t imagine how that singer got his voice so high… But that question doesn’t keep me up at night, so I move on… 

The dollar, which had seen some selling the previous night, got bought yesterday and ended up 1 index point to 1,226…  Gold & Silver had banner days, as the thought of a FOMC rate cut is back on the board, really lit a fire under the metals… Gold gained $70 to end the day at $4,136, and Silver gained $1.36 to end the day at $51.42

The price of Oil regained a buck yesterday and ended the day trading with a $58 handle. And more and more traders are realizing that they thought the rate cut not happening is becoming wrong, and that the FOMC is going to cut rates, sans no data, on Dec. 11…. 

In The overnight markets last night…  The dollar got sold to the tune of 3 index points in the BBDXY. But it’s not showing in the euro’s value yet… And Gold and Silver are starting this week on the right foot, with Gold up $14 to start the day and Silver up 31-cents to start the day.  Gold resiliency during the SPTs flexing of their muscles really impressed me…  let’s hope we don’t have to experience a week of selling like that one ever again! But, that’s wishful thinking with the SPTs always at the door, like the wolf… 

The price of Oil slipped below the $58 handle overnight to $57.92… No biggie… And the 10-year’s yield slipped further downward to start today with a 4.01% yield. It took the bond boys some time to come around to thinking that the FOMC will cut rates at their next meeting… But now that they’ve come around, the 10-year is getting bought by the boat load every day… 

This is a good and bad thing… The 10-year is used as a indicator of what mortgage rates will be offered at, and loans, etc. So, that means that credit rates are coming down, and that’s the bad thing in my mind, because it garners easy credit ideas for borrowers and then they do questionable things…  The good thing about a lower yielding 10-year is the bond servicing costs for the U.S. go down…  That doesn’t mean the lawmakers should go about upping their deficit spending… But it will… I can hear them now talking about needing to spend on this, that, and the other thing now that bond servicing costs are down… UGH! 

Every 100 days we as a country spend $1 Trillion dollars that we don’t have… It used to take about 6 months or longer to spend $1 Trillion dollars, but not any longer!  

Where has the year gone? It’s already Thanksgiving week, and it seems to me that just a short time ago, we were celebrating the start of summer!  As I get older, the years go by faster… I’m sure that’s a feeling that many before me said, and there will be many after me that realize it too…  Have I told you the great news that we are going to be blessed with another grandchild?  My little buddy, Alex and his wife Grace announced the good news last week… Alex isn’t so little any longer, and now he’s going to be a dad… I just hope that his child isn’t a problem child like he was!  There were several times where I threatened Alex and told him I was going to send him to Military School!  But then, on a dime, he changed, and the next thing I knew he was a full grown man and now is going to be a dad!

I’ve been so downward Donnie lately with my economic news, but just like a team that gets to play only cupcake teams, you can only play who’s on your schedule, and I can only report the data that’s printed… I can’t help it that it’s worrisome… 

One report that I totally disagree with, is the World Gold Council’s report on the Gold holdings of China and Russia…  These are totally under reported, and I would think by now, that China has more Gold than the U.S.’s 8,133 tons of Gold that they supposedly hold… 

Speaking of supposedly holding Gold… A new bill was introduced in Congress and has 4 sponsors this time, to audit the U.S. Gold holdings, their swaps, and IOUs…  I would like all readers to write their representative and tell them that you strongly desire an audit…    

Do you recall me chastising the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for cutting interest rates when their inflation was still higher than their target rate (just like the U.S. ) ? Well, I do, and that’s all that matters to me here, because a minister with the RBA came out yesterday and announced that the RBA will have to hike rates in 2026 if inflation continues to be strong… Well, inflation hasn’t weakened, so I would say that a rate hike is in the offing from the RBA…  And then I get to say… I told you so, I told you so, neener, neener, neener… 

Yesterday I talked about what a basket case Japan and the yen are, and then yesterday I saw a report that said that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is thinking of intervening in the markets to support the falling yen… I’ve always told you that the markets have much deeper pockets than a Central Bank, and that case holds true here too… if the BOJ does intervene, they will be wasting money and time… 

And a dear reader sent me a note over the weekend that the headline said that Japan was joining the BRICS… I wasn’t able to get the article to load, but still the headline tells enough, eh? 

And… So, farewell to our 2025 COLA increases in Social Security… The Premiums in Part A & B are increasing too! The Gov’t will get us either way…   And the deductibles are increasing too!   I don’t know about you, but there’s a phrase that gets my dander up quickly, and that when politicians talk about the “entitlement funds”…   No, they’re my funds that deposited after 50 years of work, and now that money is mine… And then the second thing that gets me going is that when I first earned the money it was taxed by the Gov’t… And now that I’m withdrawing it, it is subject to being taxed again!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard had an interesting bit of information for us late last week, that the BLS won’t be producing a labor report for Rocktober…  Ok, so that leads to a conundrum for the FOMC who has stated that they are data driven… How will they truly be able to make a decision on interest rates at their Dec. 11 meeting?  But they will… And that leads me to another problem I have with the FOMC…  First of all, they make interest rate decisions when they don’t take part in the economy, and never have… and then add in that they say one thing and do another…  I’m just saying… 

Speaking of the U.S. Data Cupboard… We’ll see a lot of stale economic reports this week (from Sept). The only thing I can think of is that the propeller heads had over a month to cook the books and massage them to look good… We’ll see… 

But today, we’ll see Sept prints for Retail Sales, and wholesale inflation (PPI)… I’ve forgotten what went on in September, so the BHI won’t be any help to us today…  And I would think that PPI will be strong… As whenever the Gov’t gets around to printing Sept CPI it will show an increase of August’s 3.0% rate of inflation… 

Bill Bonner had some interesting figures in his letter yesterday… let’s listen in: “Back in 1971 when the Funny Money Era began, US debt-to-GDP stood at just 34%. That is only government debt. Private debt was at 90% of GDP. Today, the figures are 120% and 140%. That represents approximately $38 trillion (a number suspiciously like US government debt itself)…of extra money. Money spent, but never earned, derived from credit, not from work — not from paychecks, not from savings, nor from sales or profits. And since no one broke a sweat to earn it, it might be said that it belonged to no one; is it any wonder that it ended up in the most grasping, ruthless, and conniving hands?”

You can find Bill here: www.bonnerprivateresearch.com

To recap…  the dollar’s buying has backed off for now, and I’m still convinced that it’s only a matter of time before it fully returns to its underlying weak trend… Gold & Silver are starting the week on the right foot…  and we on a 100-day, spend $1 Trillion that we dont’ have routine that will end in tears… I’m just saying

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me over the last weekend from Bloomberg.com and it’s about what I was talking about and that the dollar will return to its underlying weak trend soon (I strongly think!) and it can be found here: The Era of Dollar Dominance Is Coming to a Close – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Global South is losing faith in the dollar. Why? The US slaps tariffs on friends and foes. The White House tries to bully its own central bank. Debt keeps rising. Sanctions turn the greenback into a weapon. Rising competition with China and broken security pacts with the Middle East fuel mistrust.

Beijing’s more flexible exchange rate slashes the need for hoarding dollars. Gulf rulers pour billions into megaprojects at home and take more risks with investments abroad—money they’re no longer parking in US Treasuries.

Of course, the dollar retains formidable strengths. The world’s biggest economy, deepest financial markets and strongest military are all powerful reasons for resilience. Investment pledges that President Donald Trump has extracted from major countries and corporations mean money flowing into the US.

On many measures, the dollar remains the world’s dominant currency. Yet one metric tells a different story. At the turn of the century, the dollar accounted for more than 70% of global FX reserves. Now, it’s less than 60%. If the euro area wasn’t so fragmented, and the Chinese financial system so closed, alternatives would be more attractive and the decline faster.

For America, that matters. In the past, China and the Middle East reliably recycled their savings into the US debt market. Their almost $5 trillion in peak reserves cut borrowing costs in the US by about half a percentage point, saving taxpayers billions on mortgages and auto loans and making it cheaper for companies to plow money into new ventures.

No more. China has already stopped buying dollars. In the future, it may start selling them. A gradual retreat would lift US rates slowly. A rapid decoupling could jolt markets. In the Persian Gulf, cheaper oil and lavish spending will drain surpluses and reduce flows into the US. Diminished dollar dominance also reduces its utility to Washington as a tool of economic statecraft.

Structural forces that kept the dollar high, US borrowing costs are low and Treasury sanctions powerful are reversing. The consequences will be far-reaching.”

Chuck again… The end of the dollar dominance brings about a cheaper dollar, and that plays nicely in the sand box with the thought that the U.S. Empire is dying… 

Market Prices 11/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6459, kiwi .5604, C$ .7083, euro 1.1550, sterling 1.3177, Swiss $1.2362, European Style: rand 17.2287, krone 10.2450, SEK 9.4536, forint 330.47, zloty 3.6589, koruna 20.8964, RUB 78.84, yen 156.17, sing 1.30.18, HKD 7.7765, INR 89.22, China 7.0860, peso 18.44, BRL 5.3677, BBDXY 1,223, Dollar Index 100.23, Oil $57.92, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $51.92, Platinum $1,572.00, Palladium $1,421.00, Copper $5.17, and Gold… $4,150

That’s it for today… A more of a what’s on Chuck’s mind kind of Pfennig today, which we need every now and then, eh?  Our Blues lost again last night this time to the Rangers… UGH!  The College Basketball season is upon us now, and I’m hoping that the St. Louis U. Billikens and Mizzou Tigers basketball teams are good this year… Both teams are off to good starts…  My last infusion is giving me fits, with one day of problems and one day of no problems.. UGH!  The great Eddie Floyd takes us to the finish line today with his song: Knock On Wood…    In my first band that I played in we used to play that song, with me singing… Ahhhh memories… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought like there’s no tomorrow
• Japan’s inflation rises… What will the BOJ do?

Good  Day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you… My week of doctor appts went along just fine… I got my monthly infusion on Thursday, and it set me back a day, but then I was back to normal self… My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost on the road to Oklahoma… UGH! I had lunch with some former classmates on Friday, it’s always great to meet up with them again… Marvin Gaye greets me this morning with his big hit song: Let’s Get It On… 

Well, we’re baaaaccckkk! The bean counters that is… Yes, the propeller heads of the Gov’t that perform accounting (not like you and I learned accounting) and issue the reports that the markets get all giddy about, have returned to work…  So, now we’ll have something, no matter how full of hedonic adjustments there are in the reports, to look at and get an idea of whether the economy is sinking or swimming…  More in the Data Cupboard later… 

The dollar continued to gain strength last week and ended the week with the BBDXY sitting at 1,227. So, In essence the dollar has regained all that it had lost in Rocktober, and has me really confused as to what the heck is going on…  Serenity NOW! There are so many dark clouds over the economy but still, the dollar bugs buy dollars… I say, don’t worry, be happy that you diversified your investment portfolio, because the underlying weak dollar trend will return… Well, at least I think it will return… 

Gold ended the week at $ 4,066 and Silver ended the week at $50.06. I told you last week that I thought the new floor for Gold was $4,000 and Gold proved it to be correct at least last week…  Stuart Englert wrote a good piece on the need to audit our Gold holdings last week that can be found here; Government Secrecy Prevails Over Gold Transparency

Stuart Englert is the author of the book titled: Rigged… And explains how Gold & Silver are subject to rigging of their prices by the bullion banks… I recommended this book a few years ago when it first came out, and if you didn’t read it then, I strongly suggest that you read it now…  

The price of Oil got whacked again late last week and ended the week trading with a $57 handle… The Trump peace plan for Ukraine is to blame according to the writer at www.oilprice.com   And the 10-year Treasury ended the week weaker at 4.07%… The rate cut talk is Back On and so, it is that the Fed Heads will cut interest rates again at their meeting in December…  And that news weakened the yield in the 10-year. 

In the overnight markets last night… sanity returned to the markets overnight, as the dollar slipped 2 index points in the BBDXY, and Gold is up $13 to start our day/ week. Silver is also up this morning 23-cents to start our day/ week.  Kitco.com had a commentary about Gold, let’s listen in: “As we enter the back half of the fourth quarter of 2025 and begin 2026, the momentum for gold is truly remarkable, with prices surging over 10% in September (best monthly performance since 2016), 5% in October (All-time highs), 4% in November, and nearly 55% this year. This positions gold for the biggest annual gains since 1979, and with the right conditions, we could see $5,000/oz in 2026.

The price of Oil is trading this morning with a $57 handle, and the 10-year’s yield continues to shrink and start the week at 4.05%… 

The Japanese yen, saw tons of selling when their inflation gauge showed inflation rising to a new high. This brought out the interest rate hike folks… But given that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has a history of disappointing the markets, I have to question whether or not the BOJ will react accordingly… The markets know the BOJ’s MO, and so they have gone about selling yen…  I’ve said for years now that Japan is a basket case, and that statement remains in place. 

The outlook for gold remains incredibly optimistic. Worldwide, many countries are experiencing declining growth and rising inflation, creating a stagflationary environment that favors gold. When examining specific currencies, it’s evident that gold is performing globally and trading near all-time highs against the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Indian Rupee, and Japanese Yen.”

Kitco is always a good source for news on the metals, but they refuse to talk about the manipulation of the metals, and for that I don’t like being nice to them…  

I mentioned above that we’ll begin to see if the economy is sinking or swimming, and the first piece of information that came through was the report on auto loan delinquencies…  Here’s YAHOO Finance: “The share of subprime borrowers — those with a poor or limited credit history and a score between 501 and 600 — who are at least 60 days past due on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October. This is the highest increase since 1994, according to data released by Fitch Ratings.”

With apologies to Karen Carpenter, it’s only just begun….   BTW, while I didn’t like their choice of music, I simply adored Karen Carpenter’s voice when she sang… And her song: Superstar… is on my iPod for sure! 

And here’s another snippet from YAHOO Finance: “The number of Americans on jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October, government data showed on Tuesday, suggesting an elevated unemployment rate in October as an uncertain economic environment discourages hiring.”

And to finish this short list (because I can’t list them all) of bad marks for the economy here’s one from CBS News.com “A growing share of lower-income Americans are struggling to get by financially as their wages fail to keep up with inflation, according to a recent analysis.

Roughly 29% of lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck, up slightly from 2024 and from 27.1% in 2023.”

And the stock market continues to ignore the weak data coming out… Doug Casey, recently wrote an article titled” How long can investors ignore reality?   That’s a good question, Doug…  And one I’ve been asking for some time!

Before we head to the Big Finish, I wanted to vent a bit about Gold…  I had a dear reader send me a note that said that Gold had peaked and wondered if he should sell at this peak price….  Well, that all depends on whether you bought your Gold to speculate the price and make a quick buck, or you bought your Gold as a hedge in your investment portfolio, a store of wealth, and insurance against a dollar depreciation…  

Sure Gold has dropped from its high $4,350, but so what? It surely hasn’t peaked… Gold’s bull market isn’t a ONE- WAY Street! There will be pullbacks during its run to higher prices, but that shouldn’t cause you to think that the end is near…  It should be thought of as a buying opportunity and nothing more…  

There, I said what I wanted to say…   Questions? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had some stale old data reports late last week, but the current data is yet to be printed…  David Rosenberg, the great economist that I’ve quoted quite a few times through the years, believes that we are in a recession now, and I would have to agree with him!

The one report that kind of got my attention was the Consumer Sentiment report for this month fell by quite a bit…  I usually don’t pay much attention to these Consumer Sentiment/ Confidence reports because they are really just a pulse of the stock market… But this report comes at a time when I feel that Consumers are really feeling the pinch of higher prices for everything, and knowing that the Christmas buying season is here…   

To recap… The dollar is on an upswing, for reasons only the Shadow Knows… But Chuck is convinced that the dollar will return to its underlying weak dollar trend soon, so stay tuned and diversified! The awful data continues to come in and now is getting printed so, soon, we’ll be up to date… sorta… 

For What It’s Worth…  This is a very long article, so, obviously, I won’t be able to give it all to you, but the snippet will be good…  This is an article by Alasdair Macleod and it’s about the SPTS… and it can be found here: The Hammer – Charts and Parts

Here’s your snippet: “Gold and silver don’t just trade on supply and demand.

They trade on control — the kind powerful institutions use when rising precious metals threaten the stability of the financial system.

Here is a simple look at how that control works: (there was a daily chart showing the straight line drop in the price of Gold one day) 

a daily effort in the paper markets to keep precious metals from breaking out,

and what it means when the effort becomes constant.

MEET THE HAMMER / MR. SLAMMY / GOLIATH

He doesn’t work for a bank in the usual sense.

He works for the system.

His job is to keep gold and silver quiet.

Because when gold and silver rise quickly, they expose something uncomfortable:

the financial system is more fragile than advertised.

They call him The Hammer because his tool is simple —

he hits the market with huge waves of paper selling.

Not real metal.

Not bars or coins.

Just contracts — claims to metal that don’t exist in the vault.

That selling forces prices down.

It calms the headlines.

It buys time.

Years ago, The Hammer only showed up on big days:

Fed meetings, crises, major announcements.

Then it became monthly.

Then weekly.

Now he’s there every single day.

Sometimes multiple times a day.

Why?

Because the physical market — the real metal — is getting tight.

Central banks are buying aggressively.

Industrial demand is surging (batteries, solar, EVs, nuclear).

Delivery requests on the exchanges keep rising.

And the spreads and borrowing costs behind the scenes are flashing stress.

Everyone can see it now — even retail.

And The Hammer knows it.”

Chuck Again… See? Ed Steer and I aren’t the only ones writing about the SPTs…. And you thought I was off my rocker every time I talked about the SPTs…  Well, anyone that doesn’t see these large drops in metals for what they truly are (Short paper trades) then you need to get your eyes checked…  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 11/24/ 2025: American Style: A$ .6455, kiwi .5611, C$ .7089, euro 1.1549, sterling 1.3110, Swiss $1.2385, European Style: rand 17.2849, krone 10.2849, SEK 9.5322, forint 331.31, zloty 3.6649, koruna 20.9339, RUB 78.58, yen 156.83, sing 1.3042, HKD 7.7835, INR 89.24, China 7.1037, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3852, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 99.36, Oil $57.88, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $50.29, Platinum $1.547.00, Palladium $1,410.00, Copper $5.08, and Gold… $4,079

That’s it for today… Well, it’s good to be back in the saddle, writing to you… I’d rather do that than to go to a doctor, for that means I’m not fit and hale… UGH!  Getting old isn’t for sissies, as an old man once told me and now, I believe him! For I was never a sissie… never!  But I am getting old… UGH!  I look at my friends and see them looking much younger than me… Oh well, quit whining, Chuck. It is what it is!  Thanksgiving week! Have you bought your turkey yet? If you have you’ve probably noticed that turkey prices have gone quite high… Turkey for you, Turkey for me… Crowded House takes us to the finish line today with their song: Dream On… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the SPTs raid Gold & Silver again!
• Bessent say, “Don’t Worry Be Happy” about Debt…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A nice victory for my beloved Mizzou Tigers last Saturday VS Mississippi… Now, they have to deal with the Oklahoma Sooners this coming Saturday… UGH!  It was an absolutely beautiful weather-wise weekend here… Indian Summer, they call it… Hey! Next Thursday is Thanksgiving! Already!  I used to despise Thanksgiving, because of the arguments that incurred about whose family we would eat dinner at… But now that my parents are gone, and Kathy’s dad is gone, we have Thanksgiving at our house, and no more arguments!  The Scorpions greet me this morning with their song: Rock You Like A Hurricane… 

That’s a song that I don’t ever want to see come up to play on my iPod during hurricane season in Florida!  

Well, last week ended with a dud for the dollar… But it was yet another engineered takedown for Gold & Silver… The SPTs like doing these engineered takedowns on Fridays because then the short time Gold holders will have all weekend to fear that there will be more selling, and they, then, sell their positions… I say, good riddance to them, for that’s not what you buy Gold for, short-term gains…  You buy Gold as a diversification in your investment portfolio to guard your money against all the dolts in D.C. And elsewhere… You buy it and forget it!  

Gold lost $90 on Friday, and Siver lost $1.74… Gold ended the week at $4,080 and Silver at $50.47…  Earlier last week, Gold had risen to $4,224, and Silver to $54.12… The SPTs couldn’t stand to see them go any higher for that would bring about HUGE margin calls on their shorts… So, they went about taking the metals down… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle through the weekend, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise to 4.14% on Friday… Inflation continues to drive the selling of Treasuries… Along with the questions about how the U.S. is going to finance their excessive deficit spending, and the credibility of the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel…  

In the overnight markets last night… There was a bit of buying in the dollar overnight, and the BBDXY starts today up 1 index point at 1,217… This will be a BIG week for the dollar, as the Data Cupboard begins to open back up…  Gold starts the week flat as a pancake (Head East) and Silver is up just 16-cents… Gold ended last week up for the week, but down because of the STPs on Thursday and Friday.  I think that a new floor has been established for Gold at $4,000… But watch, now that I’ve said that Gold will dip below the level today, as I’m usually the kiss of death for whatever it is I call out… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle over the weekend and the 10-year Treasury starts the week trading with a 4.13% yield… 

The Secretary of the Treasury, Bessent, says that the size of the debt is no big deal and he has a plan to deal with it using stablecoins… I don’t see anything going wrong there…  NOT! 

Well, apparently, there is a short squeeze on Gold coming to a theater near you… I don’t mean to make light of this situation, but you know me…  Alasdair Macleod is a metals analyst that I follow a lot, as he’s always got an angle that I didn’t think about in the metals trading…  So, here’s Alasdair in www.goldmoney.com  “There are now signs that speculators are beginning to buy gold futures, with open interest on Comex jumping by some 30,000 contracts in the last seven trading sessions. If it continues, physical liquidity will face additional challenges. And as the record of open interest shows, there is considerably more room for speculator purchases before the Comex contract becomes definitively overbought.” 

The end result here is that this should be good for the price of Gold…  And that’s that!

The weakness of the dollar last week had the euro picking up some value and it finished the week back above the 1.16 level… The rest of the currencies have gotten out of their respective sick beds, and are up walking down the hall for exercise… I did notice that the Chinese renminbi had rallied again, and this time its not for window dressing for an upcoming meeting between the U.S. and China… The renminbi has been allowed to move to a 7.09 handle VS the dollar…  This is where the renminbi stalled out the last time it moved to this level, so it will be interesting to see if the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) allows more strength…  

If the dollar continues to weaken, then I suspect that the renminbi will continue is drive to stronger levels… I say “if the dollar continues” with regards to short-term… For I truly believe the dollar is in for a long-term weakness trend…  But, short-term, it could gain some strength, for this is NOT A ONE WAY STREET for overall weakness!

I had to laugh when I saw this headline: Greece to supply Natural Gas to Ukraine… I immediately thought of the poor helping the poor… I mean, when Greece, a country with a laundry list of its own problems, is helping Ukraine, you then know that Ukraine is deep down on its luck…   Needless to say, eh? 

There was some disturbance in the force at the Eccles Bldg., last week… I previously told you of two Fed Heads that voted no on the last rate cut, and now there is another Fed Head who has stated their point of view that the economy doesn’t need another rate cut… And that has led to the markets lowering the probability of a December Fed rate cut to below 50%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week. The shift followed comments from several officials expressing doubts about the need for a third consecutive rate reduction, citing the economy’s resilience and lingering uncertainty around inflation… 

I was shocked that a Fed Head actually recognized that inflation is a problem right now! I’m sure that a low-down assistant wrote that down for her to say…  I mean the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel does employ thousands of economists to do the math that the Fed Heads can’t do themselves…  I know, I know, I’m being mean to the Fed Heads, but they deserve any dissing they get! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard should get back on track this week, and the Sept Jobs Jamboree is going to be printed on Thursday this week… I know, all off schedule, but at least the prints will begin to filter through…  Not that they are worth a plug nickel but at least they will be something to talk about…    

To recap… The dollar’s week last week was for a softer dollar, and on Friday it just drifted… Friday brought us yet another engineered takedown of the metals from the SPTs… The Chinese renminbi is on a path to strength VS the dollar…. And the euro is dragging the rest of the currencies out of their respective sick beds… And the the U.S Data Cupboard is back this week!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article this past weekend, and thought, “Why not?” It’s about the debasement trade in the dollar and it can be found here: What is the debasement trade and why is everyone on Wall Street talking about it?

Or, here’s your snippet: “Investor jitters over a weakening U.S. dollar, rising government debt and central bank monetary policy have fuelled discussion and debate on Wall Street about what JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts coined “the debasement trade.” Here, the Financial Post explains what it means and how investors can protect their money.

What is the debasement trade?

In a nutshell, the trade is a reaction to the belief that inflation, deepening government deficits and monetary easing by central banks are devaluing traditional fiat currencies and sovereign bonds.

Fearing that purchasing power is disintegrating before their eyes, some investors are parking their cash in assets untethered to dilution, such as gold, silver and other precious metals, stocks, real estate and cryptocurrency.

“The value of the U.S. dollar in regard to what it’s able to purchase has become steadily worse since the 2008 financial crisis,” said Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. “As the de-dollarization accelerates, investors bid up hard assets, and those hard assets go up in value.”

Examples of governments debasing currencies to fund spending date back to the Roman Empire, when Nero set a precedent by gradually reducing the content and purity of gold and silver in coins. King Henry VIII made similar moves between 1544 and 1551, a period known as “the great debasement.”

Chuck again… Yes, this gets me thinking that my call for a long-term weakness for the dollar is bang on… I guess we’ll see, eh?

Market Prices 11/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6522, kiwi .5672, C$ .7128, euro 1.600, sterling 1.3185, Swiss $1.2572, European Style: rand 17.0754, krone 10.0914, SEK 9.6481, forint 331.04, zloty 3.6414, koruna 20.8422, RUB 81.38, yen 154.85, sing 1.3021, HKD 7.7735, INR 88.63, China 7.1072, peso 18.32, BRL 5.3074, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.22, Oil $60.09, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $50.96, Platinum $1,552.00, Palladium $1,412.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $4.080

That’s it for today, and unfortunately this week… Wait? What? I heard you saying that you had Dr. appts Tues and Wed this this week, but that you would be back on Thursday…  Ah, grasshopper, yes, I did say that, but I forgot about my monthly oncologist appt on Thursday, so that means I have to skip writing the rest of the week… sorry… A week without the Pfennig, what’s a mother to do?  Oh, well, it will get you ready for my annual Christmas vacation!   And no, I’m not rushing Christmas! I just mentioned it…  Our Blues lost 2 more games since we last talked… They have got to get things straightened out soon… The Quick Silver Messenger Service take us to the finish line today with their classic rock song: What About Me? I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and grand week, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Buter

• Gov’t shutdown ends… so what?
• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  I had a non-event trip home yesterday… I said thank you to the Lord above for allowing me to get home without any stomach problems… They waited until I got home! I got out of Dodge just in time as the temps there had dipped lower and it was chilly when I left to go to the airport yesterday morning. Well, I was a “sooner” on Wednesday when I said that the Gov’t Shutdown was over… Only part one of the vote to end it had passed, the other half was to be voted on last night… Head East greets me this morning with their hit 70s song: Never Been Any Reason

Well, yesterday was kind of a “nothing day”…  The dollar didn’t move from it’s overnight figure of 1,218 in the BBDXY and Gold rallied, after seeing the SPT’s on Tuesday… Gold gained $ 11 to end the day at $4,196, and Silver gained $1.18 to end the day at $53.33… Shoot Rudy, even the chartists are jumping on the Gold / Silver bandwagon, as they see the charts telling us that Gold / Silver are due to rise again…  

The price of Oil slipped $2 since Tuesday and traded yesterday with a $58 handle.  And the yield on the 10-year has seen a game of tug-o-war, as one day it’s up and bonds are getting sold, and the next day it’s down and bonds are getting bought… The bond boys were on holiday on Tuesday for Veteran’s Day, and so some catchup had to be played yesterday… Any way, the 10-year’s yield ended the day at 4.09% yield. 

The new spending bill was signed into law by the POTUS last night, so the Gov’t Shutdown is officially over now after 43 days of this nonsense, flight delays, people going hungry, and most of all… We as a country will sink further into the rabbit hole of debt…  But let’s not worry about that today, the Gov’t is back! YAHOO!  (NOT!) 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, the foreign markets didn’t think much of the signing of a new spending bill and sold dollars last night… The BBDXY starts today down 3 index points to 1,215…  Gold & Silver continued their rise overnight… Gold is up $28 to start the day, and Siver is up 79-cents… Silver has crossed the 54-cents handle, and so Siver has risen higher than it was before the massive, engineered takedown by the SPTs… But that was last week, water under the bridge… and all that!

The price of Oil remained down with a $58 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.09% yield to start the day today… 

But that’s been the MO of these engineered takedowns… The sell the metals until they’ve wiped out all the short time buyers, and then the metals turn around and begin their march higher and in time, they trade over the levels they were before the takedown…  Again, I don’t get ready to sell my metals when they take them down like they did last week…  I simply look to buy more…  I’m just saying… 

The currencies are sitting up straight and noticing the selling of the dollar… The euro is back above 1.16, and the Euro Wannabes: forint, zloty and koruna are all on the rally tracks, and I always find this to be significant… They usually signal a weak run for the dollar, so keep an eye on that… 

Regarding the Gov’t Shutdown, I sent a picture of a young lady on Monday to my good friend, Dennis Miller and she was saying, “The longer it says shutdown, the more we realize it never did anything useful anyway”…    I got to thinking about that and she was absolutely correct in my mind! 

Well, did you miss the cheaper prices for Gold & Silver? Well, that’s nobody’s fault but your own if you did miss them, for they are back to getting bought and Ed Steer tells us that “end demand for metals is still surging”…   Lost? Well, he’s talking about long option contracts that come due, the owner is demanding deliver of the metal  as per the contract…  That’s going to put the SPTs in a pickle folks, because physical demand will continue to put pressure on the upward price of Gold / Silver…   

You can go back to really old archives of the Pfennig to check this out on me, but I long ago and far away in a galaxy a million miles away, told you that the one way to make the SPTs pay is for everyone, and I mean everyone to buy some physical Gold… at that time there were no ETF’s in Gold/silver… But an ETF does eventually mean the trust company issuing the ETF has to buy Physical Gold, the ETF in your account isn’t physical Gold..  I’m just saying… 

The dollar has seen some selling in recent trading days. It has come off its most recent high of 1,226… Which means the currencies in your diversified investment portfolio are picking up… And doing what they are designed to do, it makes up for the loss of buying power in the dollar… They aren’t making great gains, just taking their time, going about rising in value…  Oh! Did you also miss properly diversifying your investment portfolio when the dollar was getting bought, and you could buy boat loads of currencies?  Oh, well, again, nobody’s fault but your own… 

I have an acquaintance, John Diener, who has read the Pfennig so long that when he began to read it the Dead Sea Wasn’t Even Sick yet! And he writes a monthly letter that he sends to me!  It’s Called Ruminations, go ahead an Google it…   Anyway, he had this to say about the layoffs by Corporations: “Large layoffs are again in the news. General Motors is to lay off 3,300 workers in its EV and battery departments as a result of slack EV sales. Paramount has begun laying off 2,000 positions. Target is to lay off 1,800 corporate jobs, UPS is to eliminate 48,000 jobs. Amazon plans to eliminate 30,000 positions, and accounting firm PwC has abandoned plans to increase its staff by 100,000 hires. More jobs will be cut by Molson Coors, Rivian, and Booz Allen. These layoffs prove that corporations are desperately seeking to rein in their costs. Reducing headcount is the quickest way to do so. ”

And I have something for you in the FWIW section today on a new ADP Report that should keep the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel on course to cut rates again in December, no matter the dissenting votes for a rate cut in the FOMC…   So, don’t skip over the FWIW section today… 

And since I traveled yesterday, and then was worn out upon arriving home, and so I napped… I have two FWIW’s for you today  this first one is about Gold, and the second one is about the ADP Report…   So, the first one is about Gold and illustrates how fickle traders are and can be found here: Did you miss the dip? Analysts see new bullish potential for gold as prices hold above $4,100 | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Last week, Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, was bearish on gold, noting that the sharp decline from last month’s record highs caused significant technical damage to near-term price action.

However, in an updated note on Tuesday, Kuptsikevich said that rumours of gold’s demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. Spot gold last traded at $4,133 an ounce, up 0.18% on the day and more than 3% so far this week.

Kuptsikevich noted that gold’s push above critical near-term resistance levels has created new bullish momentum in the marketplace. He added that upside risks remain supported by ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

“The outlook for the precious metal is no longer as bearish as it was a week ago. Growing political uncertainty, stemming from the potential repeal of tariffs by the Supreme Court and the Fed’s dovish stance, is creating tailwinds for Gold,” he said.”

Yeah, yeah, year, one week’s he’s bearish on Gold the next week Gold is the best thing since sliced bread! Fickle, fickle, fickle   

For What It’s Worth… OK, I prebilled this article above, so I’ve already done an intro, so with no further ado you can find it here: Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today’s new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023…

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.”

Chuck again… yes it’s getting really ugly in labor land… And no amount of rate cuts is going to stop that from happening… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 11/13/2025: American Style: A$ .6563, kiwi .5670, C$ .7142, euro 1.1619, sterling 1.3172, Swiss $1.2575, European Style: rand 16.9907, krone 10.0461, SEK 9.4128, forint 330.34, zloty 3.6353, koruna 20.8180, RUB 80.67, yen 154.61, sing 1.3003, HKD 7.7708, INR 88.66, China 7.0964, peso 18.25, BRL 5.2780, BBDXY 1,215, Dollar Index 99.26, Oil $58.87, 10-year 4.09%, Silver $54.12, Platinum $1,604.00, Palladium $1,504.00, Copper $5.12, and Gold… $4,224

That’s it for today and this week… Next week is going to be a short one as far as writing is concerned, as I have doctor appts. on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, a Pfennig on Monday and Thursday next week… As always you can go to www.dailypfennig.com to read past issues to keep the longing for a Pfennig in your mailbox at bay… HAHAHAQ!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers play Mississippi this coming Saturday, it will also be Senior Day at the game. Our Blues held on for dear life on Tuesday night after getting ahead 3-0, they barely hung on to a 3-2 victory… Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  Today is Veteran’s Day… A very important day in our country, not as important as it should be, but very important nonetheless… Make sure you acknowledge a Veteran especially today and thank them for their service. My dad was a veteran of WWII… I’ve always held that fact in high regard and thought so much of my dad… The Goo Goo Dolls greet me this morning with their song: Iris

I have to apologize for the tardiness of the letter today… right, smack dab, in the middle of writing, I had a stomach problem… So, an hour after dealing with that I feel like I can sit here and write again… UGH! 

Well, what a day for Gold & Silver yesterday… All the participants of the New Orleans Conference must have heard the folks at Battle Bank talk about Gold and went home and bought some!  Gold gained $118 yesterday and closed at $4,117 and Silver gained $2.34 and closed the day at $50.56…  No SPTs dared to get into that buying frenzy of physical Gold and ETFs… 

And, in keeping with my promise to Frank Trotter, I’m going to attempt to remember to put more ads inside the Pfennig… here’s today’s:

“Gold in your IRA? Yes please. Battle Bank will make it easy to diversify your retirement with metals that actually hold value. Because your future deserves more than paper promises.” You can find Battle Bank here: www.battlebank.com

Chuck again… yes, this letter has been ad free from the get-go, but times change, and so do I… What do you do? And one thing I want to add here is that my old metals Guru at EverBank has moved to Battle Bank to run the currencies and metals desk, and you can’t get a more knowledgeable metals person than Tim Smith… So, get on their waitlist, and when the green light is shown that accounts can be moved or opened, then you’re in! 

It didn’t hurt the metals rise yesterday that the dollar was getting sold… In the morning the BBDXY was down 4 index points, and ended the day down 5 index points at 1,218…  The currencies got out of their respective sick beds, and walked down the hall and back…  I’ve been in the hospital so many times that I know what they get you to do, once you feel better… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose a bit to 4.12%… Bonds are getting sold due to the fact that a TON of new issued bonds will be auctioned off this week… I went down this rabbit hole on this yesterday, so if you missed it simply go to www.dailypfennig.com and read it yesterday’s Pfennig there… 

In the overnight markets… The dollar got sold some more, not much, but the selling continued…  The BBDXY starts today at 1,217…  The rate the dollar is getting sold is slow, sloth-like, but it’s selling… Gold and Silver are adding to their monstrous gains yesterday this morning. Gold is up $17 and Silver is up 63-cents and is trading over the $51 handle… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher to trade with a $60 handle, and the bond boys are on holiday today, so the 10-year is 4.12%…   

Well, did you hear the POTUS say, “Our energy costs are way down. Our groceries are way down. Everything is way down. And the press doesn’t report it.”

Well, I don’t know who his shopper is and what bag-o-lies they’re telling him when they come back to the White House with a bag of groceries, but that all that is one big fat statement, that is wrong!  inflation is rising, as money supply continues to grow, and when you used to go to the grocery store and come out with 2 bags of groceries, and now you come out with just one plastic bag… You and I know that inflation is a real problem… 

But remember when I told you that inflation doesn’t bother the rich folks?  Well, I guess that plays well here… 

OK… Well, I have another thing that will show that inflation is real here…  Two years ago, my spring Training season tickets were “x”… And this year they’ve risen by $400!!!  So, I know not everyone gets season tickets for Spring Training, but it was just an illustration of how inflation affects everyone differently…  

So, interest rates should be rising to squelch the rising inflation, right? Well, this diddling of interest rates and cutting them when they should be hiking them, is really causing some problems… 

In the Sunday Bonner’s Private Research letter, Dan Denning did the honor of writing the edition, and in it he highlighted an essay by Joe Withrow… I don’t have the time or space to put the whole thing here, so I’ll just cut it down in my own words…  The cutting of interest rates to zero and Bernanke’s ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) caused housing prices to rise so much that the middle class can’t afford to buy a house these days… How did that happen?  Well, easy credit allowed Big Corporations (i.e. Blackrock) to buy tons of houses and drive the prices higher…  Now, they own all the houses that were for sale, and if you want to buy one, buck up, and pay the Corporation for the house… 

The Fed Heads and the FOMC shouldn’t be responsible for interest rate management, but they are and they have caused a major faux pas in housing… 

Any questions?  

The Gov’t Shutdown has ended…  I know, this could’ve been the headline story, but… I didn’t want to give the knuckleheads in Congress any undue glory…  This means, hopefully, that I can fly home on Wednesday without wondering if my flights will get cancelled! It also means that all the folks on welfare, I think they refer to the payments these days as SNAP,  will return to seeing checks in the mail to them or balances added to their debit card… I wish there was a real audit of the program, and a weeding out of all the folks that don’t require the payments…  But then I’m swinging on a Star and carrying moon beams home in a jar….  and no, I would not rather be a mule! 

All the old timers that read the letter will probably have that song in their heads all day today now…  Sorry… 

On a sidebar, when I was a very young man, I heard that song and went around singing it all the time because I liked it! I grew out of that phase of my childhood, but have always recalled the song… Of course, I didn’t know all the lyrics, just the first verse… 

Did you also hear that the POTUS announced that he would like to see a 50-year mortgage?  50-years? Aye, aye, aye…. He says that this mortgage will make buying a house cheaper…  BUZZ!  All that mortgage will do is make the monthly payments lower, so they don’t use up so much of the buyer’s monthly expenses…  it will make your ability to get equity in your home almost impossible, or it will take many years before that comes about! I just don’t think this will be housing’s savior!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week, has nothing but Fed Heads speaking until Friday when the STUPID CPI will print… At least that’s what I’m thinking with the Gov’t Shutdown over, that the data reports will begin to come through, at least by Friday! 

To recap… It was a day for the metals…  Gold was up $118, and Silver was up $2.34, and the SPTs were nowhere to be found. Good!  The day was not the dollar’s day and saw 5 index points shaved off the BBDXY…  We’re being told that grocery prices are not rising… And that a 50-year Mortgage will make houses cheaper…  Chuck goes through the incorrectness of these statements… 

For What It’s Worth… The good Folks at GATA sent me this link to an article by Jesse Columbo that I found to be FWIW worthy, regarding Gold… And it can be found here: Why Gold’s Bull Market Is Still Young – by Jesse Colombo

Or, here’s your snippet:” I’m a big fan of finding and using unique ways to value assets to determine whether they are cheap or not. In the case of precious metals and other commodities, this isn’t as straightforward as it is with assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate, where you can use simple metrics such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book value ratios.

This means we need to get creative and make comparisons to other important assets or economic data. The absolute price of an asset does not determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued. For example, there have been times, like in 1980, when gold at $800 was very expensive, and other times, such as in 2020, when gold at $1,600 was a bargain.

That’s why it helps to compare precious metals to meaningful yardsticks. In this report, I’m going to share five specific yardsticks: U.S. dollars, U.S. inflation, M2 money supply, the Dow, and the national debt, and use them to make the case that gold’s current bull market is still very young, relative to the last secular bull markets in the 1970s and 2000s, and has many more years ahead of it. While this report focuses solely on gold, I plan to publish a similar one on silver soon.

For the purposes of the exercises in this report, the dates I’m using for the two prior secular gold bull markets are August 1970 to January 1980 for the 1970s bull market, and April 2001 to September 2011 for the 2000s bull market. These timeframes are widely accepted as the official start and end points of those respective bull markets.

As for the current secular gold bull market, while there is some subjectivity and debate around when it began, I’m using October 2022 as the starting point. I believe this is well justified based on where gold bottomed, both in dollar terms and relative to the other four yardsticks used in this report. This can be clearly seen in the charts I’ve included.

I also believe that, while October 2022 marked the bottom and the start of the new secular bull market, it was in March 2024 that it truly gained momentum and vibrancy. I plan to write another piece soon to explore that nuance and distinction, but for the purposes of this report, I’ll use October 2022 as the starting point.”

Chuck Again… Mr. Columbo goes through his illustrations of times that shows that Gold is just beginning its next phase.. So, click on the link and read away! 

Market Prices 11/11/2025: American Style: A$ .6532, kiwi .5664, C$ .7136, euro 1.1597, sterling 1.3136, Swiss $1.2506, European Style: rand 17.1560, krone 10.0594, SEK 9.6192, forint 332.72, zloty 3.6460, koruna 20.9235, RUB 80.95, yen 153.87, sing 1.3003, HKD 7.7723, INR 88.06, China 7.1170, peso 18.36, BRL 5.2734, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.34, Oil $60.70, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $51.07, Platinum $1,593.00, Palladium $1,460.00, Copper $5.09, and Gold… $4,134

That’s it for today…  I made it to the finish line! It’s Veteran’s Day!  And my time here down South comes to an end tomorrow… It was a great relaxing break for me, away from the cold spell of a couple of days that St. Louis suffered… I’m going back home alone, and will be all by myself at home for the next week… This will be the first time I’ve traveled by myself since I was back at EverBank and traveling to speak… Those were the days…  But they are in the past now, and I move on…  Wilson Pickett takes us to the finish line today with his song: 634-5789…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Friday and overnight
• U.S. Treasury to issue a boat load of bonds this week…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers laid an egg on Saturday and lost badly… They are now officially out of the College Playoffs, as if they really had an opportunity to get there anyway…  Went to dinner with some friends Saturday night, yummy! Things seem to be more crowded at this time of year down here, I can only fear when the snowbirds all arrive…  Of course, I’m a snowbird, but I’ve been doing it for a long time now, whereas these snowbirds from up East, are newcomers, and have really driven up the price of everything down here… I’m just saying… The Cornelius Brothers and Sister Rose greet me this morning with their song: Too Late To Turn Back Now… 

Well, the dollar buying stopped late last week, and on Friday, the day we should have gotten the results of the BLS’s Jobs Report, but didn’t because of the Gov’t Shutdown, the dollar saw 2 index points shaved from the BBDXY and the euro climb back above the 1.15 handle… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,223… 

Gold was kept below the $4,000 figure on Friday, and ended the week up $23 at $3,999…  The SPTs made sure that Gold didn’t close above $4,000 so that everyone would see that figure over the weekend. Silver gained 28-cents on the day, and ended the week at $48.22… It will be interesting to see if the physical buyers of Gold are strong enough this week to overcome the SPTs, and Gold gets back above $4,000 for more than just one day… 

The Fed observers changed their sentiment late last week, and started to believe that no matter what the ADP Employment Report showed them, the Fed Heads will go ahead and cut rates again in their December meeting… That meeting in December will be December 10th… So, we have a month to read and hear about what people think about the meeting…  UGH!  

The change in sentiment was the reason for the slippage in the dollar, and the gains in the metals…  Fundamentals no longer have a say about the direction of these things, it’s all about sentiment… And quite frankly, I don’t get their sentiment very often… But que sera, sera… Whatever will be, will be… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $59 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw the selling of the bond end, for now, and its yield drop to end the week at 4.10%… (Change of sentiment played here too) 

In the overnight markets last night…  get this… The Gov’t shutdown might be coming to an end… And the dollar is getting sold!  Strange, but follow along… The ending of the shutdown would mean a return to the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and what they might be doing at their December meeting… And that has led traders to think that the FOMC will cut rates and that has the dollar getting sold this morning to the tune of 4 index points in the BBDXY…

We start our day/ week with the BBDXY at 1,219… Gold is starting the day/ week getting bought and is up $83 this morning, while Silver is getting bought too, and is up $1.20 this morning…  Silver is back to $50 and the STPs must be chewing their fingers nails to the cusp… The SPTs made it clear two weeks ago, that they were not going to let Silver trade above $50 and after the selling was over, they tried to keep below $40, but that dog wouldn’t hunt, so they settled on keeping it below $50… 

But look where we are this morning…  Over $50! Gold is back over $4,000 and that was quite the tipping point for the SPTs… They can’t stand to see Gold over $4,000, but here we are again… This time, I think that both Gold & Silver will be able to hold onto their new levels and even add to them… So, did you take advantage of the cheaper levels in Gold & Silver when I pointed them out to you?  hmmm…  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle, and the bond boys are thinking like everyone else now that the FOMC will cut rates again in December, and therefore the ratchet the yield of the 10-year higher. The 10-year sits this morning at 4.12% yield. 

 The U.S. Treasury will auction new three-, 10-, and 30-year debt and this week’s refunding will total $125 billion…  Do you think that foreign investors will take the current yields on those bonds and say, Thank you, may I have another, please?….  Well, if you do, I have a bridge to sell you… Rather, I think that foreigners will demand higher yields to buy our debt…  

That means that mortgage rates, which had slipped a bit lately, are going to ratchet back upward…  You know, I was thinking the other day about Housing… And how the lower mortgage rates wouldn’t help Housing Sales, because the mean price of Housing has gone through the roof!  Houses are so expensive that the middle class has to pass on buying Houses these days…  I can’t put my finger on the report to give you the actual numbers, but the difference between 1990 and 2020 in home ownership of younger folks was amazing… 2020 showed that home ownership had fallen by a great percentage… 

In keeping with the change in sentiment thought, I found this on CNBC.com ““U.S. Challenger jobs data indicated a spike in U.S. job cuts, suggesting a possible cooling in U.S. labor market conditions,” Westpac wrote in a research report.

Traders ramped up bets on a rate cut even as Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday the lack of official data on inflation during the government shutdown “accentuates” his caution about cutting interest rates further.”

Chuck again.. Yeah, the Fed Head Goolsbee is attempting to cool down the calls for another rate hike there… That’s all, don’t get caught up in the Fed Speak!  

Did you hear the hub bub about Chat GPI’s CEO mentioning that the Gov’t should look to bail out the company?   Let’s see Chat GPI has taken on $1 trillion in deals (while still managing to lose $11.5 billion)  but no bail out for you!  David Sacks who’s now the White House AI and crypto czar, said “There will be no bailout of AI…”  

Chuck again, Whew! I thought the Gov’t had gone loco (more than usual) here and would entertain the idea!  

Ok, back to other stuff… The U.S. Treasury told everyone on Friday that they are going to increase the size of Treasury issuance…  No really? You mean the Country is going to spend more and need additional funding? I would have never imagined that could happen? Did you?  HA!  Just another reason that you should only be buying 3 years and in on Treasury maturities…  I’m just saying…

The long end of the bond curve is much more volatile and subject to rate cuts… so, use your head here… 

Remember when I told you that the bond boys at Deutsche Bank were shorting the 10-year Treasury back at the beginning of the year?  Well, they are still at it…  FYI… And if the yield of the 10-year does climb higher, like I talked above, then they made the right trade…  

The Gov’t might be ending their temper tantrums and the Gov’t Shutdown… Just think of all those travelers since Friday, and that had their flights cancelled and had to rebook a flight…. I think that was the straw that broke the camel’s back, folks… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still empty but there was news on prices this year. This weekend, consumer’s attention began to focus on Thanksgiving… And that’s where they found the price of Turkeys is up 75% this year from last year… Factors like disease problems and production shortages are shaping market dynamics—and ultimately, the price of your Thanksgiving turkey. So, shop early for deals… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar buying appears to be over, with the dollar getting sold a bit on Friday, and then a lot overnight… The BDDXY is down 7 index points from where it sat on 11/4 (1,226) Gold & Silver are back above levels that had brought the SPTs out previously… The Treasury will issue $125 Billion of new bonds this week… What will become of their yields? That’s the question of the week… And The Gov’t Shutdown might be ending…  keep your fingers crossed!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this last Friday and saved it for today’s FWIW article. It’s about how investors should take steps to protect their portfolios from a dollar collapse and it can be found here: Dollar Faces Risk of 2000s’ Boom-and-Bust 40% Decline, RBC Warns – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Traders should take cover from a protracted selloff in the dollar that could mirror the boom-and-bust cycle of the Internet bubble once the drivers that are supporting the currency turn into headwinds, according to RBC Capital Markets.

The greenback has already been hit hard this year by the uncertainty associated with President Donald Trump’s policies. But it found support from a soaring stock market and US asset allocations from global investors, chief among them mammoth, passive investment funds.

Over the last two decades, these global players have favored increasingly-expensive US assets, particularly stocks, with flows in turn favoring the dollar, RBC currency strategist Richard Cochinos, said.

“This concentration worked well in the past 15 years but poses risks in the current environment,” Cochinos wrote in a note. “A measurable change in demand (and relative performance) can have profound implications in FX.”

Once capital diversifies out of a shock, as it happened after the Internet bubble deflated in 2000, it would presage a deep downturn in the greenback — similar in scope to the US currency’s 40% peak-to-trough decline from 2001 to 2008, he wrote.

Cochinos also listed high valuations, changing trade paradigms and shifting safe havens among challenges for the dollar over the next few years, noting that “longer-term tail risk management should be top of mind as we move into 2026.”

To hedge against a longer-term decline in the dollar’s value, RBC recommends traders tap a range of strategies — from synthetic call options on the ICE US Dollar Index to bullish binary options on the euro and yen.”

Chuck Again…  Funny, he doesn’t mention a foreign CD that can be held in U.S. Bank… Like Battle Bank…  You know the ones I used to be in charge of at EverBank… You choose the currency, you deposit dollars, and they convert them to that currency and put them into a CD that pays interest. The foreign exchange isn’t FDIC insured, but your dollar value in the foreign currency is…   Tim Smith, my old metals guru at EverBank, now heads the currency desk at Battle Bank, I suggest you visit their website and get on their waiting list, it won’t be long now before they begin to take deposits and open accounts! 

Market Prices 11/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6531, kiwi .5640, C$ .7133, euro 1.1560, sterling 1.3162, Swiss $1.2406, European Style: rand 17.6969, krone 10.1064, SEK 9.5126, forint 331.63, zloty 3.3163, koruna 21.0118, RUB 81.02, yen 154.16, sing 1.3032, HKD 7.7732, INR 88.69, China 7.1200, peso 18.30, BRL 5.3342, BBDXY 1,219, Dollar Index 99.64, Oil $59.86, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $50.12, Platinum $1,583.00, Palladium $1,434.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $4,082

That’s it for today…  Ok, this might turn into a good week for everything, except I’m going home on Wednesday… And that reminds me to tell you that there will be no Pfennig on Wednesday as I will be on a plane bright and early! But I’ll be here tomorrow! Veteran’s Day is tomorrow… make sure you thank a Vet for their service at all times, but especially on Veteran’s Day… I read almost a whole book yesterday sitting on the balcony reading… I got up to go to the bathroom and that’s it… I was riveted to the pages of the book, and couldn’t put it down… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: The Story In Your Eyes… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rise on Wednesday
• So, I’m a gloom and doom guy? Hardly!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, it was back to my old habit of eating lunch and then going out to the deck to read for a couple of hours in the sun… It was a beautiful day… I missed doing that routine the last couple of weeks I was here last, because I had come home from the Hospital with oxygen and my stamina had to be rebuilt… which consisted of short walks down the hallway and back… UGH! I felt like such a wimp! Sugarloaf greet me this morning with their great 70’s song: Green Eyed Lady… 

Well, was it another false dawn or was it the beginning of the next phase up for Gold & Silver yesterday?  Gold gained $50 on the day, and closed at $3,983… Silver gained 91-cents to close at $48.12…  The dollar was stuck in the mud yesterday, beginning the day down 1 index point in the BBDXY, and ending the day, down 1 index point… The 1,225 level is where the dollar held out on Wednesday…  

Man, there are a ton of article out there right now telling us that “this consolidation in Gold is good” and that all the fundamental reasons for buying Gold still exist, so they weeded out the short-time buyers, and now Gold is ready to take off again… I’ve even given you a couple of these in the FWIW section in the last week. So, I won’t bore you with more talk about how these cheaper levels of Gold & Silver are buying opportunities that should be taken advantage of… NOW!  

Sooner than later, these levels will be looked at in our rear-view mirrors, and we’ll think… “Boy, that was some opportunity we missed”… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil finally slipped from the $60 handle to the $59 handle yesterday… No Biggie, just some slippage… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield shot higher to 4.17% yesterday, and the bond traders had the thought that whenever the ADP Employment Report does print, it’s going to show that there was some recovery of jobs in Rocktober…  and that could mean that the Fed Heads will pass on another rate cut in December… 

These bond boys are usually bang on in their thoughts on the economy… Which is why I always contend that they should be the ones that set interest rates in the U.S. and not a bunch of propeller heads at the ECCLES Building… That have never worked in the economy and only have studied it…   Seems like a layup decision to me, but then I think with logic… 

I also have always contended that the ADP Employment Report should be the go-to for labor data… 1. No hedonic adjustments, and 2. Any new hires or fired employees would be on the ADP records…  again… Logic…

OK, enough of my self-promoting myself for Chief of Data! 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar buying finally stopped… The BBDXY is lower by 3 index points this morning, but the currencies remain in their respective sick beds, waiting for the doctor to release them.  Gold is up $30 to start the day… And Silver is up 66-cents… If these two metals remain in the green today it would mark their first 2 consecutive day gain in over 2 weeks! Could this be the end of the “wash, rinse, wash” cycle for the SPTs? I would certainly hope so… They are dastardly demons, folks… I’m just saying…  And Oil sits at $59.99 this morning, so just barely below $60… And the 10-year starts the day with a 4.14% yield… 

I’m reading an article this morning about a liquidity shortage of dollars… I don’t have to time to go through it this morning, but when I write on Monday, I should have something for you… so stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

And circling back to the price of Oil… The slippage came as a result of 2 things: 1. The Saudi’s cut their prices… and 2. The U.S. reported a glut of Oil in supply… So, add those two together and I’m surprised that the slippage wasn’t larger… 

Well, the questions surrounding tariffs are still being asked… Yesterday, the Supreme Court addressed the tariffs, and basically said that it was a tax, and taxes are the responsibility of Congress… Uh-Oh… But then, no decision was made and we’re still asking the question of whether they are legal and if all the money already collected is going to be repaid…. 

And that leaves Corporations not knowing what to charge for what?  The economy is staggering and this indecision going forward isn’t helping things one iota! 

And in a case of “I missed that!”  The ADP Employment Report did print, it just wasn’t on the Economic Calendar… The report showed that there was an increase of jobs in Rocktober instead of a narrowing of jobs as forecast.   U.S. Corporations took on 44,000 new hires in Rocktober, and that beat for forecast of 22,000…  And if I’m being truthful, which I always am…. This data should have helped the dollar because it points to no rate cut in December…

But… if we go back and look at these things we see that the dollar got stronger when jobs were getting cut… So, it only makes sense that the dollar gets weaker on job additions…  I know, it makes no sense, but in recent days, we’ve kind of lived in an Opposites World… 

I don’t know if you’ve noticed lately, but the Japanese yen has been getting weaker and weaker VS the dollar…  The other day, yen was 155… And that brought about many calls for intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)… But I doubt that will be the case, for I just don’t feel intervention in my bones…  And unless the dollar continues to get bought and gets stronger, I think yen will hover around 155 for some time… 

On a sidebar, it was 69 years ago that CBS first aired The Wizard of Oz on TV…  Man, I remember watching it the first time and being scared and didn’t want to watch the flying monkeys…  But over time, I grew to love the movie… And I used to do a little skit from the lollipop gang, and people around me would crack up! 

I saw a list of Corps that had announced layoffs recently, and the list, that by no means had every Corp that had announced layoffs on it, but the total was nearly 200,000 jobs axed…  I wonder how the BLS would be reporting these layoffs… Probably by adding jobs using their Birth/ Death hedonic adjustment…  Yes, I’m being facetious but… The BLS deserves it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still showing that one is the loneliest number that would ever be….  But I have this:  “I came across this in Bill Bonner’s Private Research newsletter yesterday: “Rising delinquencies in auto, credit card, and student Household debt climbed to a record $18.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while the nation’s gross federal debt hit $38 trillion for the first time. The figures highlight mounting strain across every layer of the U.S. economy — from Washington’s balance sheet to families’ credit card bills.”

Chuck again… I think that we, as a country are circling the bowl.(economically) .. When will it get flushed?  I don’t know, but it won’t be too much longer…. 

And one more thing… I had someone tell me that I sell doom… Really? C’mon we’ve been through this before… I merely write about the things that are on the horizon that could impact your investment portfolio, if it’s not good news, so be it!  Don’t shoot the messenger… 

To recap… The dollar drifted throughout Wednesday, and Gold & Silver rallied… Chuck asks, is this another false dawn or is this the beginning of the next phase for the metals?   The Supreme Court left the door for Tariffs ajar yesterday, so Corps still don’t know what to do…  And it was 69 years ago that the Wizard of Oz was first shown on TV…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I talked about the layoffs in this country a lot lately, and so this article sums it up, and it can be found here: US Edges Towards Layoffs as Job Market Cools, Fed Rates Pressure Firms – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve’s ability to avert a downturn rests in part on just how long a post-pandemic irregularity can continue: labor hoarding.

Even with interest rates at the highest level in more than two decades and signs of a cooling economy, businesses scarred by pandemic-era worker shortages have largely avoided layoffs. Instead, they’ve pulled back hiring, trimmed job openings and reduced hours.

But recent data is stoking fears employers may soon near the end of their rope — and pick up the pace of job cuts.

Job Market Warning Signs

Firms have largely avoided layoffs, but labor demand continues to cool

The labor market is “at the tail end of this sort of slowing that was probably in train because the economy was normalizing from the pandemic,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. “If you let this situation continue to trend in the way it is, things run a high risk of breaking.”

The delicate state of the jobs market is not lost on Fed officials, who have increasingly shifted their focus to avoiding a surge in unemployment. While they have long wanted to cool down an overheated labor market, officials are wary of it softening too much, especially with inflation now much closer to their 2% goal.

Chuck Again… The old saying about how it’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job, and it’s a depression when you lose your job, comes into play here…  And the Fed Heads have moved the labor problems to the front of the line for their attention…

Market Prices 11/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6513, kiwi .5662, C$ .7095, euro 1.1521, sterling 1.3073, Swiss $1.2368, European Style: rand 17.3686, krone 10.1675, SEK 9.5932, forint 335.42, zloty 3.6911, koruna 21.1315, RUB 81.13, yen 153.67, sing 1.3050, HKD 7.7749, INR 88.62, China 7.1208, peso 18.58, BRL 5.3452, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 99.91, Oil $59.99, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $48.68, Platinum $1,571.00, Palladium $1,430.00, Copper $5.02, and Gold… $4,013

That’s it for today and this week… My beloved Mizzou Tigers play the # 3 team in the country (Texas A&M) this Saturday… They need a HYGE upset and if they do, they’ll have done it was a true Freshman Quarterback…. UGH! The Cardinals Spring Training game Schedule was released yesterday… I got a chill up my spine when I saw it…  The Harvest Moon is here now… This super moon is the closest to Earth it will come, and it fills up the sky and really looks cool shining down on the ocean… My favorite Beach Boys song takes us to the finish line this morning: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler