Author: admin

• The dollar continued to rally on Tuesday
• Gold/Silver were allowed to recover a bit on Tuesday

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another day… Another dollar rally in the books.. Crazy, I know, but it is what it is… The MLB Playoffs began yesterday, and Atlanta, NY Yankees, and the Padres all won their best of 3 Wild Card games… I went to be long before the Padres/Cubs game, but saw the result at some point in the night as I was awake for most of it…  The White Sox won! And in baseball, it’s some freaky %, of the time that when you win the first of these games, you’ll end up winning the best of 3 Series… For the Sox they’re hoping that it stays true!  The Allman Brothers greet me this morning with their super great song: Melissa…

Well, I already spilled the beans above by telling you that the dollar continued its rally yesterday… The dollar gained 2 index points in the BBDXY, which ended the day at 1,218… 

Gold/Silver found a bid early and often during the day and ended up with gains for the two…. Gold ended the day 54-Cents and Silver ended the day up $1.00… Gold closed at $4,170 and Silver $61.54… Could this be the end for now that is, of the STPs shorting these two metals? Well, they’ll be there no matter what, as Gold/Silver both were higher on the day, but the SPT’s were there to make sure that the two stayed below their respective 200 Day Moving Avg… 

Even Copper was allowed to show a gain on the day… UGH

The price of Oil slipped again. After rallying all last week, the price of Oil ended the day at $89.58. The 10-year Treasury has gone through the Fed buying and come out on the other side at 5.23%…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar seemed to be drifting lower and lost in the woods… The BBDXY starts today down 1 index point to 1,217… Gold is up this morning, but Silver is down…  I woke up in the middle of the night, and couldn’t get back to sleep, so I looked at the metals and Gold was up $12 and Silver was up too, but then when I woke up this morning, after going back to bed, Silver had been sold by 81-cents… Gold is still up and has gained $16 to start the day. 

The price of Oil recovered a bit in the last 24 hours and starts today with a $90 handle… While the 10-year’s yield was up to 5.29% before the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel showed up to buy the bond… and so, it settled at 5.23% to start our day…

You know it occurred to me yesterday that I haven’t talked about the currencies much lately… Well, sometime ago, I told you I was going to concentrate of writing around Gold and the dollar… For the currencies are not going to find a rally flag to wave, unless the dollar is having problems… Of course there are exceptions to that rule, and right now the Chinese renminbi is on the rally tracs as is the dollar… 

So, if you didn’t believe me when I wrote about switching to Gold/ Silver and the dollar, maybe you do now… But, I’ll try to remedy that today…

This has been a brutal month for bonds, and currencies… and the rise in yields on Treasuries it has put pressure on the dollar to rise, and it has… thus leaving the currencies in its wake…  Except one currency, the Chinese renminbi… It used to be a funny thing (not funny ha ha) to watch every time the leaders of the U.S. and China were scheduled to meet. The Chinese renminbi would soften and get weaker to show the U.S. they are doing what the U.S. wants them to do, and that is weaken the renminbi to allow U.S. exports to be better priced in China… 

But this time, was different… The renminbi continued to get stronger VS the dollar, and I don’t think that the pair was discussed in the meeting between the POTUS and Chinese leader Xi…. So, the level of the currency is a thing of the past for these two… Hmmm…. 

The U.K. Received some good news economically as their latest GDP report showed the economy growing faster than anticipated…  Sterling couldn’t gain VS the dollar on the news, but it did hit a 6-week high VS the euro… 

And in Japan, the leaders of the Country continue to warn the public about shorting the yen and buying a higher yielding currency… The Carry Trade as it is called… I think that the yen is trouble, and traders are looking to take it down VS the dollar, but are waiting for the leaders talk to die down, as it will with Japan… 

And do I have something different for you in the FWIW section today, you won’t want to miss this… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the stupid Consumer Confidence report for Sept, and it was awful… The Report had the biggest drop in a month since April 2014! Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024… So, for once in a blue moon, Consumers got it right… I’m just saying… The Case/Shiller Home Price Index for July, came in at 0%… So, housing stopped its rise, and didn’t gain anything in July… And that’s before the rate hike!

The U.S. Data Cupboard is chock-full-o-data today… First up is the ADP Employment Report, and they forecasting 68,000 jobs for Sept… Then we’ll see the color of Personal Income and Spending… Then the PCE will print for Aug. Which was prior to the FOMC’s rate hike, so the outlook for this data is for the PCE on an annual basis to remain at 3.7%… We’ll also see the color of Retail Inventories, in August… 

To recap… The dollar continued to rally and added 2 index points yesterday… Gold/Silver found a bid and was allowed to gain on the day… And today, is chock-full-o-data so get ready for the lies and videotape to come forward… 

For What It’s Worth… This article is very interesting in that what if you were Mr. Rogers’ neighbor and you liked him? Oh well, you’ll have to read it to get what I’m asking… The article can be found here: John Rogers Fed China espionage case: What happened

Or, here’s your snippet: “John Harold Rogers was walking Prada, his tiny spaniel, past a school bus stop in his suburban Washington neighborhood when FBI agents surrounded him. They handcuffed the former senior Federal Reserve official and took him into custody to face charges of spying for China.

An agent took Prada’s leash, and investigators from multiple federal agencies began an intensive search of Rogers’ house.

The now 65-year-old economist was arrested in January 2025, days before he was set to travel to China with his wife, a Chinese national, and their 6-year-old daughter. Investigators believed that Rogers passed information about the Fed to a Chinese government spy, who, over more than a decade, helped him with his career, his finances and his marriage to a woman 24 years his junior.

Rogers’ descent from senior Fed official to espionage suspect appears to have been driven by his desire for female companionship. This desire was exploited by a Chinese government agent, who became increasingly entwined in Rogers’ professional and personal life. Rogers’ indiscretion was later exploited by online blackmail scammers, ultimately leading to his downfall.

“The facts of this case read like a spy novel,” federal prosecutor Nicholas Hunter told the jury at Rogers’ trial in 2026. “There was sex. There was money, manipulation, secret meetings with shady characters in China, fake identities, lies, trickery, and deceit. But this was real life. The events of this case all happened.”

The crucial question, though, was whether Rogers was a spy or a dupe for Chinese intelligence. His lawyers argued that he didn’t pass any information of value to the Chinese and that he was just a naive academic who got caught up in espionage.”

Chuck Again… this is a very interesting article, so if you have time go ahead and click on the link above and read it in its entirety… 

Market Prices 9/30/2026: American Style: A$ .6971, kiwi .5646, C$ .7056, euro 1.1354, sterling 1.3290, Swiss $1.1981, European Style: rand 16.3942, krone 9.5957, SEK 9.9837, forint 322.54, zloty 3.8471, koruna 21.5205,    RUB 83.18, yen 157.05, sing 1.2770, HKD 7.8459, INR 95.82, China 6.7043, peso 18.18, BRL 5.2047, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 101.21, Oil $90.74, 10-year 5.23%, Silver $ 60.77, Platinum $1,711.00, Platinum $1,237.00, Copper $6.62, and Gold… $4,186

That’s it for today… The dermatologist froze 8 spots on my scalp the other day and did that hurt! The sent me a cream to apply to my bald head 2x a day and hopefully, all the spots will go away, and I’ll be left with a smooth scalp… with no chances of any of the spots turning into cancer!  It’ll take a couple of Months before I know… By then, I’ll be getting ready for my winter stay at my winter home in S. Florida… Dawn came to the house on Sunday, and she looked much better after her surgery… And Alex & Grace brought their baby son over and we had a ball trying to get him to “talk”….  Emerson, Lake, and Palmer take us to the finish line today with their song: Still, You Turn Me On…. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar just keeps gtting bought
• Gold/Silver got assaulted by the SPTs on Monday

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I bet that many readers are glad the regular season has completed, and I won’t be reporting Cardinals” scores any longer this year… All good things must come to an end… HA! With the NHL starting tomorrow night, I’ll switch to Blues’ scores… I went to dinner last night with friends, there were 10 of us! And I got stuffed on trashed wings… Dire Straits greets me this morning with their song: Brothers in Arms… 

Well, Gold/Silver fought back yesterday, but they came up really short, as Gold lost $170 and Silver lost 66-cents…  The physical buyers were in there and tried to offset the short sales, but couldn’t and so the losses on the day… I’m no Fibonacci expert, and the fact that Gold fell below the Fibonacci level of support, must mean something… But I’m a realist and I believe in the power of phsyical buying and that’s why I’ll let the Fibonacci thing pass… 

Central Bank buying is still keeping Gold / Silver from falling even more than the short sellers would like… I’m just saying…

The dollar continued to gain yesterday. This time the dollar picked up 3 index points in the BBDXY and gained even more in the overnight markets…  What’s wrong with these folks? Can’t they see that they are buying dollars when 1; the bond servicing (interest they have to pay) is going to choke off our financials… 2: The U.S. is coming close to running out of Oil… 3: The K status of the economy, is going to show that consumer buying is out… And there are more… But these are the top 3..  So, why are they buying dollars? They are buying them because they see the FOMC raising rates in the future and they want to not miss out of these rate hikes….

Now, if the problems facing the dollar didn’t exist, then buying dollars on rate hike forecasts would be the thing to do… but with every rate hike that sends rates higher, so too, are the bond servicing costs… So, go ahead and buy your dollars now, you’ll be sorry… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil slipped a bit yesterday, and ended the day with a $93 handle… While the 10-year Treasury, continue to rise, ending the day at 4.23% yield… When will the bond boys be happy with the rise in yields? Good question… and one that I don’t have an answer to..

In the overnight markets last night… Like I said above the dollar continued its rally last night gaining 2 more index points and the BBDXY sits at 1,216 to start the day…  Gold is up this morning after yesterday’s assault on it by the SPTs, and is up $43, and Silver is also up this morning, 42-cents… 

The price of Oil has slipped some more and trades this morning with a $91 handle, while the 10-year Treasury saw some Fed Buying and the yield slipped to 4.21%…  

I spent a lot of time above talking about the dollars’ problems, as I see them… You might be one of those that don’t see things the way I see them, and that’s ok… But if you aren’t, then you should be diversifying your investment portfolio… I’m just saying…

This story came from the good folks at GATA, and told me that refiners are not accepting the Venezuelan Gold that was taken from the country in the military take down…  here’s snippet from that article: “all that gold — hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth — sits untouched in warehouses, according to three people with knowledge of the shipments. Refiners would need to guarantee, under international rules, that the gold has not funded gangs, environmental destruction or corruption.”  

Seems that when you bad mouth something but then take it over and you want to make it good again, that there’s that thought of it being bad that hangs over it… And that’s what this administration is finding out… 

Well, China is really picking up the pace of Physical Gold buying… And then we have the Chinese Golden Week coming up… Sept. 30 through Oct. 7, will be a time for looking to buy Gold…  For the Chinese and their allies will most likely be buying physical Gold during that time….  I’m just saying…

I don’t know for a fact that the Chinese will be buying during this Golden Week, it just seems to me that they will…  So, take this with how ever many grams of sand you wish…

There’s not a lot going on this morning or overnight, so that means there is a wanting of articles and there just aren’t any that don’t talk about the Strait of Hormuz or Iran or the U.S. turning down the Iranian peace proposal…  So that means…  this is just about over for today…

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Case/Shiller Home Price Index for July for us this morning, and the Stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month… Neither one is market moving, but we do have not 1 but 4 Fed Head talks today… So, they can spread more lies… 

To recap… Gold/ Silver tried to come back yesterday, but the hole they were down was too deep… The dollar continued to rally, and Chuck tells us why he thinks that the dollar buyers will be sorry… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I mentioned above that Central Bank buying of physical Gold was still strong, and the report talks about what China will take in this year, and it can be found here: China on pace to import 1,700 tonnes of gold in 2026, silver price faces key test near $60/oz – Heraeus | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “China’s 2026 gold imports could be double those of last year, and will set the high-water mark for the 2020s to date, while silver prices are approaching a key test that could determine the gray metal’s near-term direction, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.

In their latest update, the analysts noted that China’s gold imports have already exceeded 2025 totals in 2026. “China imported 142 tonnes of gold in August, taking imports during the first eight months of the year to 1,141 tonnes, 72% higher than the 663 tonnes imported over the same period last year, and higher than the 940 tonnes imported during the whole of 2025,” they wrote. “The strong inflows come despite historically high gold prices and reflect continued investment demand, while Chinese jewelry demand remains comparatively weak. These non-monetary imports are separate from purchases by the People’s Bank of China, which added a further 20 tonnes to its official reserves in August.”

“If Chinese gold imports maintain this pace through the rest of 2026, they will total ~1,700 tonnes, which would represent the highest amount this decade.”

Australia’s gold mine production continued to rise in fiscal year 2025-26 as historically high prices continue to support the mining sector. “Australia produced 303 tonnes of gold up to the end of its financial year in June, broadly in line with its long-run production rate of around 300 tonnes p.a.,” the analysts said. “Output improved at most operations during the June quarter, while several smaller producers also began production. The 303 tonnes produced in Australia account for around 8% of total mined gold supply, which was 3,822 tonnes in 2025.”

Chuck Again… well, you have It there, the Chinese are continuing to buy physical Gold and for that the article also talks about Silver buying, so both are on the docket for more Central Bank Buying… 

Market Prices 9/29/2026: American Style: A$ ..7001, kiwi .5653, C$ .7049, euro 1.1343, sterling 1.3242, Swiss $ 1.9997, European Style: rand 16.3759, krone 9.5893, SEK 9.9807, forint 323.01, zloty 3.8474, koruna 21.5115,    RUB 84.12, yen 178.40, sing 12777, HKD 7.8458, INR 95.98, China 6.7042, peso 17.91, BRL 5.2245, BBDXY 1,216, Dollar Index 101.83, Oil $91.77, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $61.12, Platinum $1,697.00, Palladium $1,245.00, Copper $6.62, and Gold… $4,159

That’s it for today… The MLB playoffs start this afternoon… I have a dear reader that’s a HUGE While Sox fan, and so, I’ve adopted the Sox, as my team… I hope I don’t jinx them like I did my beloved Cardinals!  I just don’t know what to think of the playoffs, in the end, I can’t see any other team besides the Dodgers and Yankees the two highest payrolls, to be in the World Series… UGH!  The Rascals take us to the finish line today with their song: Beautiful Morning… Which I hope it is… I hope you have A Tom Terrific Tuesday, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to be strongish
• The U.S and China agree on $80 Billion in tarrifs

Good Day, and a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the regular baseball season is over and done… The Playoffs start tomorrow night… The regular season seemed to go very fast… At least for me! My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost on the road on Saturday… C’mon Tigers come back strong! I had my black & Gold on Saturday but it didn’t help…  We’ve been having cloudy days with some rain lately, so no outside reading for me… UGH! Jimmy Ruffin greets me this morning with his great song: What Becomes Of The Broken Hearted…

Well, the week ended on a different note than had been the norm all last week… The dollar saw some selling, and the BBDXY closed the week at 1,212… The Iranians made a peace proposal to the U.S., but was turned down by the POTUS… I would think that’s the reason for the selling of the dollar… besides in the RSI the dollar was overbought, and that used to mean something…

Gold/Silver closed the week up slightly…  Gold was up $10, and $30 off its high for the day, as the SPTs were there… Silver also closed up slightly 42-cents and 80-cents off its high for the day… Those darn SPTs have to gummy things up all the time… 

The price of Oil lost $2 on the day, Friday and closed the week at $92… And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield at 5.16% to close the week… 

In the overnight markets last night… The SPTs have really out done themselves once again… Gold is down $120 and Silver is down $2.72 to start our day/ week… And these two have come back from being down even more overnight… Gold was down $200 at one point… Yes, I was awake all night and couldn’t sleep, especially since I saw what they were doing to Gold… 

The dollar gained 1 index point overnight and starts today at 1,213… The story below will help explain the dollar’s upward move… The dollar has gotten so strong that even the Swiss franc is losing ground so much that the 1.20’s is questionable for the franc…. And the SPTs didn’t stop with Gold/ Silver, they went after Copper too, and Copper is down $12 to start our day/ week… UGH!

The price of Oil has risen again and trades this morning at $95…. I told you that the price of Oil would stay down just a short time before head higher again and looks like I was bang on… 

And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 5.21% this morning…  What level will the bond boys be happy with for this bond?  5.21% is quite high and it looks as though it won’t stop rising until ?   

Reuters reported this morning that the U.S. and China had agreed to $80 Billion of cuts in tariffs… That’s a good thing, folks…  Now, if only the U.S. and China would agree to actually track these cuts and monitor them…

That’s the problem with Gov’t plans… There’s never any monitoring of the plan and making sure that the plan goes as announced….  I’m just saying…

 A couple of things I want to mention this morning… The RSI tracks the movement of assets and tells traders when the asset is overbought or oversold…  In this case, the dollar is well into the overbought section of the RSI…  Usually, this will play out accordingly… we’ll have to see, eh?

The other thing is that there was a 5-year Treasury auction late last week that didn’t go so well, even though the yield then rose to its highest level (5.07%) since we as a country were still reeling from the 9/11 attacks…  Foreign demand dropped from 60% to 57%.. And there was a HUGE tail that had to be taken in by the Primaries…

Seeing the rot on the auction vine, the 10-year was sold too and its yield rose to 5.18%… This is very bad for or finances folks… How in the world will we be able to pay the bond servicing costs (interest)? Print more money… And Money Supply will go through the roof!

You may have taken exception of something I wrote on Thursday that we as a country need a friend…  Doesn’t this 5-year auction show just that?

Well, this is the last week of September… And Friday will be the first Friday of Rocktober… And that means the BLS will be cooking the books and adding hedonic adjustments they can come up with to make the labor report look better than last month’s 162,000 created in August…  I read where the markets are looking for a major number to print and that would send the yield on the 10-year to new heights…  Remember, August had over 40,000 teachers going back to work that were counted as created… and then the BLS added just for good measure 74,000 jobs out of thin air…  So, to me the actual jobs created in August was 46,000…

And then I couldn’t believe I heard him correctly, but I do believe that Kevin Warsh, the new el jefe at the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, said that employment was strong, and therefore his FOMC would concentrate on getting inflation down… 

Strong? He had better look up the definition in the dictionary of the word strong, because he certainly has a different meaning of the word… I’m just saying… 

The euro is leading the rest of the currencies lower…  And the dollar rally has become a real problem… There’s nothing on the Central Bank meeting table, and there’s nothing data wise that could help them right now, so it’s all up to whenever the dollar reacts to the overbought position it has in the RSI… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is wanting the first two days of this week, and it won’t be until Wednesday that we receive real economic data… Until then, only a Fed Hed speaking today is on the docket… And tomorrow, we’ll see some unemployment data… but not the data that moves the markets…

To recap… The dollar continues to rally and has pushed the currencies so low. How can one sit there and watch this without adding some cheaper currencies?  Gold / Silver are getting whacked in the overnight markets, and Warsh needs to look up the word “strong” in the dictionary…

And in other news… RIP Bob Pettit… died last week at 93… he was a St. Louis area legend in basketball… I watched him play once and marveled at how he was able to move about the court and score at will… RIP…

For What It’s Worth… this article was printed originally last Friday, so it doesn’t take into consideration the more than $2 downward move by Gold last night. But, it’s worthy to read because it talks about diversification and that’s good in my book! You can find the article here: Gold is throwing out the old rulebook | Kitco News]

Or, here’s your snippet: “- By almost every traditional correlation, gold should be substantially lower than it is today – and the fact that it isn’t is telling us something loud and clear. 

The Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, the U.S. dollar is strengthening and the 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.2%, its highest level in 20 years.

World Gold Council modeling suggests that, all else being equal, every 25-basis-point increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield translates into roughly a 1.75% decline in gold. With yields surging higher, gold prices should be well below $4,000 an ounce.

Instead, gold is holding around $4,300. This resilience underscores just how dramatically the precious metal has diverged from its traditional relationship with interest rates.

Of course, gold is not immune to higher yields. Prices are down more than 2% this week and have fallen sharply from their recent highs. Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while a stronger U.S. dollar creates another significant headwind.

But considering the magnitude of these pressures, gold’s losses remain remarkably contained.

Investors are no longer looking at gold simply through the lens of interest rates. Central bank demand remains an important pillar of the market, while investment demand through gold-backed exchange-traded funds remains relatively resilient.”…

Chuck Again… This downward movement in Gold is a tough row to hoe, as I think about all the people that have not bought Gold, and how this is should be an excellent buying opportunity, but with it doing down every day, when do you buy?  I would say, now, because that’s your opportunity… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 9/28/2026: American Style: A$ .7023, kiwi .5667, C$ .7129, euro 1.1379, sterling 1.3265, Swiss $1.2025, European Style: rand 16.3965, krone 9.4975, SEK 9.9467, forint 322.66, zloty 3.8426, koruna 21.4368,   RUB 84.46, yen 156.96, sing 1.2778, HKD 7.8449, INR 9598, China 6.7136, peso 17.76, BRL 5.2012, BBXY 1,213, Dollar Index 101.12, Oil $95.77, 10-year 5.21%, Silver $61.69, Platinum $1,746.00, Palladium $1,253.00, Copper $6.63, and Gold… $4,169

That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals limped out of the regular season as they got swept by the Brewers… The had a losing record for the second consecutive year in 2026… But they performed better than the forecasters predicted for them, so there’s that…  I go back to the doctor that sent me for the Moh’s surgery, today…  She wants to make sure that the spot is healing correctly… My favorite song by Chicago takes us to the finish line today… Hard Habit To Break… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• How’s your diversifation going?
• China visits the U.S.

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals woke up last night and won 5-1 VS the Pirates…  There’s only 4 more games for the team since they won’t be in the Playoffs… And then, baseball will be over for me, until Spring Training 2027… Oh, I’ll watch the playoff games and World Series, but without a dog in the hunt it won’t be the same for me…  Kathy came home yesterday and immediately took the stove top off and cleaned it as I had cooked on it for over a week and I guess left it a mess… Oh well, that’s the price you have to pay for being in S. Florida for over a week! The Yardbirds greet me this morning with their song: For Your Love

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Alrighty then let’s get to the meat…  The dollar continued its onslaught on the currencies yesterday with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points to 1,212… All the things I told you about yesterday that were the reasons for this dollar rally still hold true…  The price of Oil did stop to slip downward yesterday though, but it’s still much lower than it had been. 

Gold/Silver didn’t fare well on the day either… The SPTs were hot and heavy in the metals markets yesterday, and Gold lost $42, while Silver lost $1.72…  Gold lost the $4,300 handle it had held for a while, and Silver lost the $65 handle it too had held… I’m sure the tech gurus would point to something on the charts that told you why… But I’m no technical person, although I do check in my tech guru, every now and then to get the skinny of what he’s thinking… 

The price of Oil recovered a bit of its recent losses… You see, there were some rumors that tons of barrels of Petrol had gotten out the strait, but those proved to be false words, and then the POTUS spoke annihilating Iran and that proved to be the spark that the Oil price needed and it ended the day at $91.58… 

And the 10-year saw its biggest one day upward move in yields in a month of Sundays, as the yield rose to 5.12%… I’ve told you before that I was a foreign bond trader at one of my stops in my career, and I moves I see these days are amazing to me… 

In the overnight markets last night… More dollar buying has the currencies on the run to cover… Don’t peek ahead at the Currency Round up because you won’t like what you see… Shoot Rudy, even the Chinese renminbi has weakened to the 6.71 handle, when just a couple of days ago it was trading with a 6.69 handle… The BBDXY gained another 2 index points and starts today at 1,214…  The dollar is taking no prisoners right now, and it pains me to see this going on.. These rate hike thoughts are really fueling the dollar run, and that’s it, because the price of Oil has rallied to a $93 price this morning… 

The 10-year closed above 5% last night, and this morning it’s at 5.13% yield…  The bond boys are thinking that rates will be much higher in the coming months… and that has the dollar on a rampage…

So much so, that the price of Gold is getting whacked again this morning and is down $27 to start the day, while Silver is seeing the same treatment, and is down $1.12 to start the day… This is getting out of hand, folks… Serenity Now! 

Well, what’s going on with the diversification of your investment portfolio? I know it doesn’t look very good right now, but the idea here is that while one asset class in your portfolio is doing bad the other asset class is doing well… So, right now, bonds are doing awful, while stocks continue to be the bubble floating around the room looking for a pin… Currencies were on top of the world 2 weeks ago, and now they are back in their sick beds, with the same scenario following the Gold/Silver around… 

The idea is to not have all your eggs in one basket…  because if the basket gets dropped, the losses will be greater… So, you spread the risks out among asset classes… that way, if your one set of eggs get dropped you have the other eggs to even things out… 

I sure hope after all this time that I’ve written about diversification and talked about it back when I used to travel to conferences and speak about diversification that you’ve done your homework and diversified accordingly… I would hate to think that I spent all the time writing and talking about diversification that nobody followed through… 

The Eagles did a song titled: Wasted Time… and a piece of the lyrics goes like this: You never thought you’d be alone This far down the line But I know what’s been on your mind ….You’re afraid it’s all been wasted time…

Chuck again…So, let’s make sure that I don’t feel like it’s been wasted time…

China continues to take over the Gold market from London and NY, as they came out with a Gold denominated Bond, and now this: “We have recently reactivated our gold contract in the U.S. dollar. But in the future, perhaps sometime early next year, we will be coming up with a yuan-denominated gold futures contract,” said Gregory Yu, managing director and head of markets at HKEX. They are growing up right before our eye… Soon, they’ll be king of the hill, and there’s nothing that’s going to stop them… 

This is BIG folks… From the AP this morning: “Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on Wednesday, where he was met with a rare planeside greeting from President Donald Trump after their top officials agreed to extend a trade truce until January.

Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the extension of the truce — under which the countries agreed to scale back tariffs and refrain from imposing new trade restrictions — during a Fox News Channel interview as Trump welcomed Xi at Joint Base Andrews just outside Washington.

“I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don’t know whether we will just roll the current deal,” Bessent said in the interview, noting the extension to Jan. 10 could give the leaders more time to talk about the issues at upcoming international summits in China in November and Florida in December.”

Chuck Again… Are we kowtowing to the Chinese? In my opinion, yes, but we need to at this point, because everybody has a distaste for the U.S. right now and we need a friend…  I’m just saying… 

I don’t have anything else for you today, so we’ll head to the Big Finish and then get ready for Mizzou’s next game at Mississippi St. on Saturday… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard does have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for last week to print today, and then that’s it… Tomorrow we’ll see the color of the August Durable Goods Data… We’ll also see the U. Of Michigan’s Consumer Survey, which last month showed a drop from July 51.7 to 47.8… I would expect this data to fall even more in September, for nothing has improved for Consumers…

To recap… The dollar is on a rampage right now, as I read that some believe that there will be 3 more rate hikes coming to us… Can you say more money to be used for Bond servicing should they hike 3 more times… Gold/Silver saw tons of SPTs contracts, and it wasn’t allowed to garner any Long Bids…  And Chuck goes through diversification once again just in case there are new students to class.. 

For What It’s Worth…  This is another person that thinks like do regarding Gold moving higher with higher interest rates and you can find it here: Gold’s bull run isn’t over: TD Securities sees next leg above $5,000 | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold continues to struggle as prices fall below critical support at $4,300 an ounce; however, one bank sees limited downside for the precious metal as the environment looks ripe for a renewed drive above $5,000 an ounce.

In his latest market commentary, Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, said that although gold continues to face headwinds from higher interest rates, underlying investment demand remains resilient and is starting to strengthen across several important segments of the market.

“The time is coming for the next leg higher in gold,” McKay said. “The yellow metal has shown the ability to hold strong despite Fed hikes, and with investor and central bank appetite growing again, gold looks poised to make a renewed run at prices north of $5,000/oz into 2027.”

Although rising interest rates and elevated real yields would traditionally be expected to weigh on the non-yielding precious metal, McKay said gold’s traditional relationship with interest rates remains broken.

He noted that there is historical precedent for gold prices to rally alongside rising real rates, particularly when other macroeconomic risks dominate investor sentiment. TD Securities sees elevated geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarization, concerns about currency debasement, deteriorating fiscal conditions and persistent inflation fears continuing to support investment demand.

At the same time, McKay pointed out that markets have already priced in three additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. He said that creates an asymmetric risk for gold, as any failure by the central bank to meet those expectations could accelerate the precious metal’s upside.”

Chuck again… lots of things to take in, but in the end this guy is telling you the same thing I’ve been telling you… So, that’s that!

Market Prices 9/24/2026: American Style: A$ .7066, kiwi .5668, C$ .7059, euro 1.1371, sterling 1.3224, Swiss $ 1.2082, European Style: rand 16.4322, krone 9.4884, SEK 9.9097, forint 322.11, zloty 3.8541, koruna 21.4553,    RUB 85.03, yen 158.88, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.8424, INR 95.96, China 6.7112, peso 17.57, BRL 5.1756, BBDXY 1,214, Dollar Index 101.25, Oil $93.35, 10-year 5.13%, Silver $63.68, Platinum $1,755.00, Palladium $ 1,288.00, Copper $6.81, and Gold… $4,261

That’s it for today and this week… hopefully next week is a better week for the asset classes that we follow… Like I said above, my beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Starksville Miss. To play Mississippi State on Saturday and their new Heisman level Quarterback… Big game for my Tigers… Let’s  fight Tigers! I woke up the other night with a panic attack, I was scared at first, but then figured out what was going on, but still couldn’t go back to sleep… It was a long day the next day… It must have been a dream, but really, I don’t know what caused it… The great Smokey Bill Robinson takes us to the finish line today with his song: Crusin’ … I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to rally
• Inflation is sticky and will reamin despite the rate hike

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals got shutout last night in Pittsburgh with only 1 hit in the game… That’s embarrassing to me, but then I’ve never faced a pitcher that threw 99… The staples in my scalp, came out with no soreness or problem yesterday, so that Cancer is now gone! I still have a lesion on the right mandible, (Jaw) and it rears its ugly head every now and then, so that’s why I take a cancer treatment once a month… I know I told you I would not be able to write the Pfennig today, but times change, and so do appointments…. The Great Wilson Pickett greets me this morning with his 60’s song: 634-5789… 

OK, so on Monday I made it sound like Gold/Silver were going to rally every day now that the FOMC had raised interest rates.. But the SPT’s were out and about, and made sure that the two metals were kept in check, so that broke the consecutive days of rally… UGH! But yesterday, Gold gained $51 and Silver gained over $2 on the day, so like I’ve always said… The SPTs may bring Gold/Silver down, but eventually the two metals will gain to a price that’s above where they were before the selling short began…. 

The dollar gained a couple index points in the BBDXY yesterday and finally got off their duffs at 1,205… The price of Oil has receded quite a bit this last week and yesterday it closed at $90… This drop in the price of Oil has really helped the dollar folks… For you see, with the Price dropping, the pressure it put on rising inflation has abated… For now, that is… Just wait until the missiles start flying again both ways, and we’ll see the price of Oil soar again…  That’s my Pfennig for you today…

Oh, and it may turn around before then, as the closure of Hormuz and now Bab el-Mandab by the Houthis, plus the damage inflicted on the Saudis’ East-West pipeline to Yanbu is about to hit global energy markets hard… Good thing, I filled my gas tank today ahead of the turnaround… With the little driving I do these days, that should last me for some time… 

But not for the Truckers who burn Diesel fuel, And What I saw yesterday was $6.50 a gal for diesel… I can’t even imagine what it costs to fill a tank of diesel fuel in a semi… 

I tell you this because Truckers bring us the goods we need, food especially, and if the cost to bring the food to us goes up, then the cost of the food will go up too… And think of the farmers… Aye, Aye, Aye… They are in a bind, and the cost of food is going to go sky high…  So much for a rate hike taking care of Inflation, eh?

The scarcity of Copper is beginning to show up again, and so the price of Copper is rallying… here’s a piece from Zerohedge.com that talks about that… “Copper has almost retraced the selloff sparked earlier this month, following Reuters’ report that the White House’s “copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns.” Prices are back near record highs in London as Bloomberg reports tightening supplies in China’s physical market, reinforcing scarcity concerns.

The driver, according to the outlet, is new Shanghai Metals Market data showing shrinking Chinese inventories. Those inventories fell to 43,900 tons, the lowest since 2023.”

Chuck Again, well at least there’s something good to talk about today… not the scarcity of Copper, but instead the price of Copper reacting according to the supply and demand that’s in place… 

The 10-year recovered some of the yield it lost on Monday, and closed yesterday with a 4.97% yield… The bond boys must think that with the price of Oil abating, that the FOMC won’t get back to hiking rates any time soon, so they will do the heavy lifting and raise yields any way… 

In the overnight markets last night… All hell has been released… The BBDXY is up 3 index points to 1,208, and Gold/ Silver has been taken to the woodshed… The price of Oil slid further downward to an $89 handle, and that my friend is the main reason that the dollar is rallying… The other reason is the rate hike expectations… But I have to stop there, because with the price of Oil sliding the inflation expectations are dwindling… I’m just saying… 

The 10-year Treasury at least is a bit saner this morning, with its yield staying at 4.97% overnight.. No Fed Head buyIng going on right now, so the coast is clear for the bond boys to take the yield higher… 

Back when inflation started to really begin to be seen, I told you all that “inflation was sticky”… And it’s proven to be just that! I’m just saying…

The currencies are going back to their sick beds with the dollar rallying so much lately… The PPT really save the dollar’s bacon this time, and sent it on its way to higher levels… The euro is seeing most of the downward movement in the currencies… Even the Euro Wanna Bes, have seen better days… The Chinese renminbi is about the only currency that’s rallying VS the dollar these days… The Petrol currencies have been sent back to their sick beds once again… 

The Underlying weak trend with the dollar has shown that it’s not a ONE-WAY Street for weakness… But I do believe the underlying weak dollar trend is still in place… So, don’t panic, and reverse your diversification… at least for now… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is back on board today, but the data it has is 2^nd Tier and not even worth mentioning… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard is the same and we won’t care about any data that gets printed until Friday, when Durable Goods Orders will print… It’s been a real “nothing burger” this week… Oh, there are lots of Fed Heads speakers out and about, but who cares about their lies?

To recap… The dollar continues to rally after stalling out for a day… it’s back to rallying, and the price of Oil dropping is the catalyst behind this rally… Chuck points the reason above, be sure you go back and read it… Inflation is sticky, and is proving Chuck correct… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I said above how Gold can still rally in the face of higher rates… And this article talks about just that and it can be found here: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-22/etf-flows-show-gold-price-decoupled-real-yields-fiscal-concerns-now-drive

Or, here’s your snippet: “– Gold-backed ETF holdings continue to rise even as 10-year real yields hit 20-year highs, showing that fiscal concerns are changing the yield–gold relationship, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

“US 10-year real yields hit their highest level in more than 20 years on Friday at 2.63%, a 76-basis point increase since the start of the year, while total gold-backed ETF holdings continued to recover following a drop in H1 2026,” Hansen wrote in his latest gold analysis. “The divergence highlights an increasingly notable disconnect between gold demand and what historically has been a strong inverse relationship with real yields.”

The real yield is the return an investor earns on a bond after accounting for inflation. “Historically, it has been regarded as key to determining the direction of gold, as the yellow metal and other hard assets such as silver and platinum do not pay interest or dividends, so higher real yields can make bonds more attractive relative to holding gold,” he said. “When real yields rise, gold has traditionally faced pressure.”

Hansen noted that when central banks aggressively raised interest rates back in 2022–23 and real yields surged, investors responded by reducing their exposure to gold by exiting ETFs. “Gold prices, however, remained remarkably resilient during that period, supported by strong central-bank buying that helped offset ETF investor selling,” he said. “In other words, the gold price decoupled from real yields, while ETF holdings did not.”

Chuck Again… I love it when a plan comes together! (Hannibal Smith) Do you recall the A-Team? Back in the day when it was on the air, it came on before Monday Night Football, so that made me watch it!

Market Price 9/23/2026: American Style: A$ .7076, kiwi .5700, C$ .7099, euro 1.1416, sterling 1.3291, Swiss $1.2163, European Style: rand 16.3012, krone 9.4601, SEK 9.8672, forint 318.78, zloty 3.8296, koruna 21.3644,   RUB 84.27, yen 157.82, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8470, INR 95.74, China 6.7070, peso 17.39, BRL 5.0996, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 100.82, Oil $89.82, 10-year 4.97%, Silver $65.34, Platinum $ 1,793.00, Palladium $1,299.00, Copper $6.81, and Gold… $4,316

That’s it for today… above I talked about the lesion on my right mandible… Do you remember when I was going to have my right jaw removed? It would cause many problems, most of them were that I wouldn’t be able to eat solid food again… Then two days before the jaw surgery, I had to go the hospital for cellulitis in my legs… So, no surgery while I had an infection…  In the meantime, my wife got me an appointment at M.D. Anderson in Houston, and the doctor there said, ” do not have that surgery”, and gave me a chemo that shrunk the tumor and the rest is history… I call this divine intervention… I truly believe it…  The late Great Leon Russell takes us to the finish line today with his song: Back To The Island… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the euro sees selling
• Whoopeedo, the Fed Hiked rates…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals last home stand of the regular season wasn’t good… But, since they’ve been eliminated from the Playoffs, the team seems to be playing in a fog… UGH! Only 6 more games left for them to play and then the bitter end will come to another year of not making the playoffs… This missing the playoffs is from a team that used to be in the playoffs quite often, almost every year! Obviously, not the same players, but still… The band, Sweet, greets me this morning with their song: Love Is Like Oxygen… 

Well, the mini rally that started about 10 days ago, has become a Bonafide dollar rally now… The BBDXY ended last week at 1,203… That’s 13 index points higher than it was wen what I thought was a mini rally began… So, now we have to deal with that… At first, it was the PPT buying dollars since no one else was… But now, things have changed…

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The FOMC did hike rates on the 16th, by 25 Basis Points and I’m amazed that the FOMC things that this rate hike will do the heavy lifting of lowering inflation. The FOMC did say that they would look to raising them one more time this year (probably 12/9)… And still, I doubt seriously that two rate hikes will lower inflation.. 

Gold/Silver has done nothing but rally since the Rate hike was announced… How many times did I tell you in the Pfennig that Gold /Silver could rise in price even with higher interest rates?  Well, they’re proving my statement… Gold ended the week at $4,371, and Silver ended the week at $63.38… Both metals were higher than their closing prices during the day Friday, but the SPTs were there to keep Gold from going over $4,400 and Silver above $65…  The wolf is always at the door, folks… Even when it appears that Gold/ Silver are rallying, they are being kept in check…

The bond boys were at first satisfied with the rate hike, and the 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.93%, but… eventually they came to the realization that inflation isn’t going to be brought lower, and they immediately began to mark up the yield, and it closed Friday at 4.99%

The price of Oil has really been brought down since the rate hike… Oil ended the week at $100.30

In the overnight markets last night… There was no movement in the dollar as it starts the day/week at 1,203… Gold is giving back some of its recent gains and is down $12 to start the day. Silver is on the plus side this morning, up 20 cents… 

The price of Oil has slipped more and starts the day/ week at $97… I don’t now why this price has slipped so much as the Strait of Hormuz is still bottled up… But, it is what it is… so, we’ll go with that!

And the 10-year Treasury is seeing some Fed Head buying and thus the yield on the bond has slipped to 4.95% to start our day/ week. 

Well, since I’ve been following this, I thought that I would write some more… It came to my attention on Saturday, as I saw around waiting for my beloved Mizzou Tigers’ game to start, that China has unloaded a ton of U.S. Treasuries, once again… The amount totaled $15.4 Billion (no wonder yields are so high again) This represents the lowest amount of Treasuries that the Chinese Gov’t owns since August 2008… And it also represents a gradual lowering of their holdings since 2010… 

But $15.4 Billion is quite the large amount to unload in one month, and do you know what they did with the dollars they received for unloading the Treasuries? The bought physical Gold (and probably some Silver sprinkled in, but The Chinese are really into holding physical Gold…

These are very smart people, as they see the risk in owning Treasuries at this time, and they did something about their risk… They unloaded a big portion of it!

Another thing I’ve been talking about for ages now and used to get in trouble with the marketing people when I would talk about the short selling in the metals, but no longer… Because it is what it is, and they could point at me saying things about short selling would scare people from buying… I said HOGWASH! 

So, each Saturday Ed Steer send out his letter, and in the Saturday letter, he shows a graph of the metals / commodities, that show the number days of production it would take to equal the short contracts in the assets… Some time ago, I wrote that these shorts were going lower, but not any longer… For Silver it would take 104 days of production… for Gold It would take 70 days of production, and a new one to become a real problem for the SPTS is Platinum and it would take 86 days of production… And Copper has its own following and It would take 30 days of production to equal the short contracts…. 

If I were king… I would not allow all this short selling, because the SPTs that participate in the short selling, don’t do it to hedge a position… They do it simply to protect their short sales, and to make a ton of cash for doing this simple trick… 

The Bank of Japan got in the rate hike mood and decided that they too would make an effort to show their citizens that they are serious about fighting inflation, and hike rates 25 Basis Points last Friday…  For a country that held rates below zero for so long, they now have an internal rate of 1.25%… 

I had to laugh when I saw their rate hike… As if, 1.25% will fight anything much less inflation in Japan… 

Oh, and the Japanese yen saw its value VS the dollar shrink… Yen was 155.50 last week before the rate hike, and yen closed on Friday at 156.88… recall that yen is a European Style priced currency, so as the price goes higher it simply means that that the yen is getting weaker… 

A friendly neighborhood Spider reminder that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as I will be getting the staples out of my head wound… It’ll be nice to not have to change the dressing on it every day by myself! 

The euro has fallen below the 1.15 figure this morning, and when I pulled up the currencies I saw that and thought that the BBDXY would be much higher… And it’s not… The Chinese renminbi traded below 6.70 for the first time in a while. So not all’s lost today… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week showed that U.S. Retail Sales grew in the back to school buying by 1.2%…  Then on Friday Industrial Production  was flat as a pancake (Head East) and Capacity Utilization was the same level as the previous month at 76.3%

The Data Cupboard is empty today and tomorrow, and then its filled with non-market moving data until Friday when Durable Goods are printed… 

To recap… The dollar has moved to a Bonafide rally now, who knows why, as our problems remain in place… Gold / Silver have been rallying since the rate hike announcement last week for the U.S. Japan hiked rates too… But they are really far behind the inflation 8-ball… And China unloads tons of Treasuries…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, the Chinese weren’t the only major country with bond news, as the U.S. announced that they will be buying $6 Billion in Treasuries, and that story can be found here; Feds to buy up to $6 billion in Treasury bonds in move to ease borrowing costs – CBS News

Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the agency will buy up to $6 billion in long-term government bonds as part of an effort to curb rising yields and ease borrowing costs.

The Treasury Department vowed last month to “at least” double its bond buybacks to $4 billion to prop up prices. Higher Treasury yields raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and can also weigh on stock prices.

Government Treasury purchases reduce supply, boosting bond prices and reducing yields (Bond yields are inversely related to prices, meaning that as yields rise, bond prices fall.) Rising yields signal that investors are demanding higher returns on Treasurys.

“They are repurchasing bonds that have been around for a while and are a smaller part of the market, but the Treasury thinks this will constrain 20- to 30-year yields from rising and put downward pressure on 10-year yields too,” Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told CBS News.”

Chuck Again…  The games people play now, every night and every day now,  Never meanin’ what they say now, Never sayin’ what they mean… I recall that song by Joe South from when I was a young man and I’m reminded of the song every time the Gov’t announces some plan to lower bond servicing costs… 

Market Prices 9/21/ 2026: American Style: A$ .7130, kiwi .5753, C$ .7138, euro 1.1483, sterling 1.3289, Swiss $1.2172, European Style: rand 16.7594, krone 9.4148, SEK 9.5101, forint 315.02, zloty 3.7909, koruna 21.1969.    RUB 83.44, yen 157.21, sing 1.2751, HKD 7.8453, INR 95.81, China 6.6980, peso 17.19, BRL 5.1421, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 100.77, Oil $97.64, 10-year 4.95%, Silver $66.54, Platinum $1,867.00, Palladium $1,331.00, Copper $6.80, and Gold… $4,367.00

That’s it for today… Well, my time here alone is nearing an end, as Kathy will return on Wednesday… It’s been quiet here this past week, I’ve not gone outside to read for it was 107 one day… But temps are on their way downward, so I’ll be outside this week! My beloved Mizzou Tigers football team won their game on Saturday, it was an ugly win, but a win is a win… Pavlov’s Dog takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Julia… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Chuck has a couple of faux pas yesterday…
• Retail Sales today for back to school buying…

Good Day… And a Wonderul Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals couldn’t stand prosperity with their win Monday night, so they gave up the ship on Tuesday Night, losing to the Giants… UGH Not many games left in the regular season, and the Cardinals can kiss the playoffs goodbye…  I’m all alone for the next week… Poor, poor, pitiful me… HA! Hello, Pizza Man Pizza?  Sugarloaf greets me this morning with their over 6 minutes long song: Green Eyed Lady… 

Well, I apologize for yesterday’s faux pas when I didn’t look at the calendar close enough to see that the rate hike announcement wouldn’t take place until today… Lo and behold, we have another one of those 2-day FOMC meetings, when all the board games get taken out and the Fed Heads sit around and play games for a day, waiting for the actual day they will sit around and discuss rates…. 

So, one more day, just give me one more day until we find out whether the FOMC leaves rates unchanged, or hikes them… And that day is TODAY! I’ve stated that I just don’t see the FOMC delivering a rate hike at this time…. And then when you think about it, the next meeting will be too close to the Mid-term elections, and then that brings us to the 12/9 FOMC meeting as the first time I see the FOMC hiking rates… 

Yes, the Fed Heads cannot appear to be political, but in the end, they are… And the Boss (POTUS) wants lower rates, so the Fed Heads will appease him a bit by not hiking rates at this time…  That’s my Pfennig for you this morning…  I sure hope I’m not wrong here… I would never hear the end of it!

So, the dollar got bought yesterday by 1 index point in the BBDXY and ended the day at 1,198… Gold / Silver tried like the Dickens to find some physical buyers and bid up the two metals, and voila’ they found them! Gold gained $20 on the day to end the day at $4,290, and Silver gained 45-cents to end the day at $63.83… It’s been a long difficult slog for the two metals. Shoot Rudy, even Copper got to rally a bit yesterday, ending the day at $6.46… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $104 handle on the day… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield also remained at 4.99%…

In the overnight markets last night… there was a little wondering about what the FOMC will do, not so much a “we’re all in on a rate cut mood”, and the dollar lost an index point to start today at 1,197… Gold /Silver are taking the side of they are going to rally even if there is a rate hike today.. Gold is up $57 and Silver is up $1.08 to start the day… 

The price of Oil slipped again overnight and starts today with a $103 handle, while the 10-year saw some buying and its yield slipped to 4.98% to start our day… 

Well, like when the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz was in the news every day, and nothing else to talk about remained, now we are onto the FOMC meeting… Yes, the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz is a real problem for the world, remains in the forefront of news…  But now we have the FOMC meeting today… Shoot Rudy, I even received an email from Fisher Investments asking me rate cut, or rate hike?  I deleted it,  for that’s all I need to read is another question about rates hiked or cut… 

I know that’s what you’re saying right now too… C’mon Chuck, talk about something else for we are up to our ears with rate talk… I hear you… 

Remember a couple of months ago when I journaled how there was a group of trades at Deutsche Bank that were shorting the 10-year Treasury…  at the time, I didn’t think that was such a good idea, but as time has gone on, I sit here and wonder if they remain shorting the 10-year, for if they are, then they are rolling in dough right now… The 10-year at the turn of the year was 4.38% and even then, they had already booked gains, and the yield began to see the yield grow, grow, grow…  So, kudos to them for having the foresight to act… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield hasn’t touched 5% since April 1999…  And then the Covid disaster hit the U.S. and rate cuts were the song of the day, until September 2021… And then the bond boys saw the writing on the wall with the U.S.’s finances, and began to Sell (Mark up) the 10-year… And here we are now… at 5%!

And I’ve told you previously at least a few times, that the 10-year’s yield is used to price many things… But Mortgages are the key… 

I told you the other day that Diesel fuel had climbed to $7.00, but I had been a Sooner with that because Diesel fuel just reached $6.00 So, another faux pas on my part… But it’ll get there, in my humble opinion… 

Prices paid for things other than laptops and smart Tvs  have gone much higher… But you have to think about this for a moment…. it’s time that we quit blaming Companies for gouging us… the real reason that prices continue to rise is all the funny money out there… Ever since we as a country disconnected Gold from the backing of the dollar in August 1971 (And it was supposed to be a “Temporary thing”) there’s nothing to keep prices in check… Inflation becomes a government policy for U.S. consumers to have to deal with… the only answer is to go back to the Gold backing… But that’s not going to happen in my lifetime, so fuhgeddaboudit… 

And I wanted to mention that the Euro Wannabes of forint, zloty and koruna all stayed close to their lofty levels last week while the dollar went through its recent mini rally… I’ve always looked at these 3 currencies and indicators of when the dollar was in trouble… So, the fact that they remained steady Eddie while the dollar rallied, leads me to believe that the dollar’s rally is a house of cards… I guess we’ll see later today how that’s all working… eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the FOMC rate announcement for us today… And we’ll see in addition to the FOMC, August Retail Sales… which are expected to rebound from July’s negative -.06%…  Back to school sales will help Retail Sales have an appearance that U.S. consumers have a lot of money to spend…  Well, they don’t really have money to spend, instead they charge what they buy… Remember the latest Consumer Debt figure showed a HUGE increase in charge cards… 

To recap… Chuck was a Sooner yesterday with his call on the FOMC rate decision… It will come today so no more waiting… Chuck also says no rate hike today that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged…  And he gives us a brief history of the 10-year’s yield…  The dollar also bumped higher yesterday to 1,1198…

For What It’s Worth… My friends, Rich and Michael Checken  at ASI…, put together a nice piece on Silver that I thought was more than worthy!  And it can be found here: What the GSR Says About Silver Right Now

Or, here’s your snippet: “Silver dropped 2.3% last week after a significant 16% climb in August.

When prices pull back, hesitation is natural. But if your goal is to hedge against inflation, diversify with hard assets, and position part of your portfolio in a store of value with both monetary and industrial relevance, periods of weakness can be when the math starts to look better — not worse.

That is the case for buying silver at current price levels. The opportunity is not about chasing momentum. It is about recognizing relative value while sentiment is less enthusiastic.

Recent market action has created the kind of setup long-term investors should pay attention to: a meaningful pullback in silver prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a Gold-Silver Ratio that remains well above its long-run equilibrium.

Although silver has pulled back from earlier highs, it doesn’t automatically weaken the longer-term case. In healthy bull markets, sharp moves higher are often followed by equally emotional selloffs before the larger trend resumes. Those pullbacks can create attractive entry points for investors willing to focus on value instead of short-term noise.

At the same time, inflation concerns remain part of the macro backdrop. Higher fuel prices, geopolitical strain, and ongoing speculation around interest-rate policy are all reminders that monetary stability is never something investors should simply assume. When uncertainty rises, many investors revisit hard assets that can help diversify traditional paper-based exposure.

In fact, one of the strongest analytical cases for silver today isn’t the spot price. It’s silver’s relationship to gold.

According to a recent Silver Institute report, a Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) above the historical equilibrium of 60-to-1 signals that silver may be undervalued relative to gold. In other words, silver is becoming more inexpensive not only in absolute terms, but also in relative-value terms. Today’s GSR is about 68-to-1, which has been gradually increasing since the ratio hit a low of about 56-to-1 back when silver and gold hit all time highs at the end of January.

That is what makes the current environment so compelling. If gold remains supported by macro uncertainty, and the ratio begins to decrease once more, silver will outperform gold from current levels. Until the GSR drops below 50-to-1, it is a clear signal that the precious metals bull market remains intact for the long-term.”

Chuck again… I even carry a one ounce Silver Coil in my pocket at all times for Good Luck… of which I’ve haven’t experienced any Good Luck yet… But there’s always tomorrow! 

Market Prices 9/16/2026: American Style: A$ .7132, kiwi .5760, C$ .7173, euro 1.1539, sterling 1.3459, Swiss $1.2214, European Style: rand 16.2701, krone 9.3517, SEK 9.7920, forint 315.54, zloty 3.7679, koruna 21.0760,    RUB 84.38, yen 155.17, sing 1.2734, HKD 78449, INR 95.95, China 6.7081, peso 17.13, BRL 5.1480, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.04, Oil $103.87, 10-year 4.98%, Silver $65.87, Platinum $1,800.00, Palladium $1,328.00, Copper $6.51, and Gold… $4,347

That’s it for today, and this week… recall that I will go see my oncologist and get a treatment tomorrow… And then next Tuesday there will be no Pfennig, as I go to get the staples out of my scalp…  Like I said above, I’m all by myself for the next week, as Kathy had to go to Florida for business… I wasn’t feeling too well to travel, so I remained home, although I did want to go because the weather there is beautiful this time of year… Oh well…  I’ll ask for prayers for my darling daughter Dawn who will have surgery this Friday… (not life or death surgery, but surgery just the same) … John Lennon takes us to the finish line today with his song: #9 Dream (one of his best pieces in my mind) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the rate hike campers are bidding up the dollar
• Bessent is losing his battle with the bond boys

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A real relaxing day for me yesterday, but it was a good thing I took my heart medicine, as my beloved Cardinals tried to give away another game last night, but prevailed instead beating the Giants 2-1… These “Cardiac Cardinals” in tribute to the former Big Red Football team that was here, have played 51 one-score games this year… So, thus the nickname… Each day I wait until the trees behind our house provide shade on the deck and then I go out and read… No sunshine on my bald head for me! The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their great song: Never Comes The Day… (we used to play that song when I was with the band)

Well, the SPTs that were in early yesterday, decided to take a pause, midday, but upon seeing the Physical buyers start to rally Gold / Silver the SPTs went right back to work… Of course, they were pointing to the rising 10-year yield that went over 5% yesterday, as to their cover, if you will, for shorting the metals.

The dollar remained trading at the overnight rate of 1,194 in the BBDXY throughout the day yesterday… So, in my  mind, the mini-rally in the dollar is from PPT intervention…  And they were not participating yesterday… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit. After rising to $107 yesterday, it fired and fell back to end the day $103.00. And the 10-year I already told you gained yield again yesterday, which means the bonds were sold.. A friendly Spiderman reminder that in bonds, price and yield move vice-versus of each other… So, when bonds are getting bought, the yield goes down, and the opposite when bonds get sold… And getting sold is what’s going on here… 

Well, another Spiderman friendly notice… there will be no Pfennig this Thursday, and that’s an oncologist and treatment appt. Early in the morning… And then next Tuesday I go back to get the stapled out of my head, so no Pfennig then either… Sorry, but dr appts take the top billing of my time… 

Well, after the STUPID CPI and corresponding PPI reports last week, the bets on a rate hike this week went from 58% to 85%… So, according to those folks betting that a rate hike will take place, you might as well book it! Not so fast there Tim…  I’m still on the fence with the FOMC actually hiking rates… But, there will be no more waiting days for this to happen or not happen, as the FOMC meets this afternoon and decides and announces their decision… 

With the price of Oil continuing to rise, this has added pressure on the FOMC as they see the damage that these very high Oil prices are causing for everyone, especially the lower half of the K economy…  

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought some more and starts today with a 1,197 level in the BBDXY… I think everyone is on board with a rate hike today, so they’re buying the heck out of the dollar… But, when Inflation doesn’t budge, what will the dollar buyers do then?  

Gold / Silver just can’t seem to get past the STPs these days… Gold is down $12 to start the day, and Silver is up 1 penny… 

The price of Oil has slipped downward overnight, there must be a reason, but I can’t find one right now.. Oil starts today at $104.90

The 10-year also slipped overnight, and trades this morning with a 4.999% yield… 

Here’s the thing we need to look for IF the FOMC does hike rates… What message do they send to the markets, is this a one and done, or will there be more?  Or, will the Fed heads give some opaque reason for hiking rates that leaves the markets scratching their heads.. The message will determine whether or not the bond boys decide to keep marking up the yield on bonds… Because they bond boys had made a statement with their marking up of bond yields that they were NOT happy with the FOMC for not hiking rates previously, so they decided to do the heavy lifting of yields… 

IF the FOMC does hike rates, then that will leave the door open for the Bank of Japan to hike rates too… The BOJ meets tomorrow.. 

This will lead to the POTUS getting very angry, as he 1. Wants lower rates and 2. Wants a cheaper dollar… And a rate hike will achieve neither of those two… 

The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Keven Warsh, and U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent are at odds… Bessent wants to provide strength for the dollar, but at the same time gets his cues from the POTUS… And the POTUS has his eye on the damage higher rates will do to an economy and their fiscal situation… While Warsh, is there to fight inflation…  I take Warsh in a bout with Bessent… I’m just saying… 

OK, let’s talk about something else besides a rate hike… 

You know, when I was leading the EverBank World Markets Div. I used to write a Sunday Pfennig about once a month…  Well, the other day, my friend, David Gonigam of the 5 Bullets newsletter, was talking about Social Security and how it’s supposed to be bankrupt in the next decade…  He then entertained some ideas on how to keep SOC SEC going…  And that got me thinking to one of the Sunday Pfennigs titled: Chuck’s Debt Solutions… and how this was written a long time before David Gonigam began at Agora… or Paradigm Press.. Whatever they are these days… So, he wouldn’t know that I put together a plan for Soc. Sec. That didn’t involve printing new money to fund the Trust… 

Some of you might even remember that piece I did… I even did an investment conference where I repeated the Chuck’s Debt Solutions… It’s been a long time since I wrote that, and I have no idea where I might find it. So, you’ll just have to trust me that I wrote it and it’s out there in space somewhere… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the FOMC meeting and announcement on the docket for today… Nothing else… So, the FOMC has the con… 

To recap… The dollar is on a mini-rally right now (remember a trend is not a one-way street) The SPTs are having their way with selling Gold/Silver short these days… Chuck thinks they realize that the summer if coming to an end, and historically Gold/Silver rally in the fall and winter…  Chuck’s looking for his Debt Solutions write up he did many years ago…

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article and since I talked about U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent, and thought this is worthy… And it can be found here: Bessent dared bond traders to bet against him. They did, and won.

Or, here’s your snippet: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to be losing a tug-of-war with the bond markets he is also trying to influence.

In an effort to tamp down on longer-term interest rates and lower the government’s cost of borrowing, Bessent has resorted to an old playbook for tinkering with the bond market and its $30 trillion of U.S. debt backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

But rather than fall in line, bond traders have taken the opposite side of the Trump administration’s trade, extending a sell-off of U.S. Treasurys and pushing interest rates to multiyear highs.

Now, the Trump administration may be running out of moves.

It all began last month, when Bessent made a surprise move and promised to “at least double” the government’s typical repurchases of government debt.

The administration hoped the announcement would stir more demand for bonds and lower market pricing on interest rates. That, in theory, would have reduced the cost for the U.S. government to pay its bills, as the nation’s debt crossed the $40 trillion mark.

In tandem with moves to stop the Japanese yen’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar, the messaging from the Treasury Department was clear: It wanted to stop the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys.

Bessent’s message to the market was clear, too: Don’t bet against me. “I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” Bessent said at an event in Texas on Sept. 8. “You can bet against me if you want.”

Chuck again… And it looks as though the bond markets did bet against Bessent, and are winning… 

Market Prices 9/15/2026: A$ .7181, kiwi .5758, C$ .7239, euro 1.1545, sterling 1.3484, Swiss $1.2210, European Style: rand 16.2500, krone 9.3740, SEK 9.7755, forint 316.42, zloty 3.7602, koruna 21.0506, RUB 84.33, yen 155.15, sing 1.2729, HKD 7.8485, INR 95.96, China 6.7134, peso 17.14, BRL 5.1482, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.61, Oil $104.90, 10-year 4.999%, Silver $63.36, Platinum $1,770.00, Palladium $1,369.00, Copper $6.42, and Gold $4,289

That’s it for today… Big Day for rates today…  I’ll probably be napping when the decision is announced… Because, unless the FOMC is ready to hike rates to over 8% this one rate hike won’t mean a hill of beans to inflation… I’m just saying… I actually got my Martin acoustic guitar out yesterday. I hadn’t picked it up in over two years… Not that I’m going to start playing again, but I heard a song that I recalled playing years ago, just wanted to see if I recalled how to play it!  The Marsall Tucker Band takes us to the finish line today with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time…  I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning, I didn’t get to sleep until 3:30 am last night, when I did get to sleep I turned off the alarm… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar goes on a mini-rally
• The ECB hikes rates…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, last Friday was the 25^th observance of the deadliest attack on American Soil… I recall sitting at my desk at work with my little B&W 12-inch tv on and suddenly, the whole office was crowded around my little TV, watching the attacks in NYC and the Pentagon… It was surreal, and I couldn’t get my arms around the fact that these cowards had attacked the U.S….  There was more to find out, and I didn’t like any of it… No one did! Linda Ronstadt greets me this morning with her song: Blue Bayou… 

The PPT was in on Thursday and Friday last week as they saw an opportunity to intervene with everything else going towards a rising dollar…  First of all, the price of Oil reached $100 again, and that along with a soaring PPI (Wholesale Inflation) got the rate hike campers all lathered up and they began to buy dollars… 

The BBDXY recovered 3 index points on Thursday, and Friday drifted higher to end the week at 1,190… Take those two items along with a pinch of PPT, and you’ve got the recipe for a mini dollar rally… 

Gold / Silver didn’ fare too well on Thursday,  with the boys in the band, (the SPT’s) taking their pound of flesh. But the two rebounded on Friday with Gold ending the week at $ 4,347, up $32 on the day.      . And Silver ended the week at: $ 64.37, up 92-cents…           .

The rising yields in bonds are weighing on Gold/ Silver too… The 10-year Treasury reached 4.97% to end the week… I had told you that the 10-year would get to 5% and beyond a month or so ago, and now It’s upon us… 

What this is going to do to bond servicing costs for the U.S. is astronomical in terms of distress on our finances… But It is what it is… and bonds globally are really causing pain on Gov’ts… 

The price of Oil reached $100 again on Friday last week… and Diesel fuel rose to $7… Yikes, trucking companies must be pulling their hair out… 

In the overnight markets last night…the dogs of the dollar were released! The dollar gained 4 index points in the BBDXY last night and starts today/ this week at 1,194… The STUPID CPI wars to blame for all this renewed rate hike talk…  I’m still on the fence regarding the FOMC actually hiking rates tomorrow… But, I guess we’ll see, eh?

Gold / Silver are taking it on the chin again this morning with Gold down $57 and Silver down $1.40… Again, up one day, down the next… The summer is just about over, and that’s historically when these two get off the duff and get to rallying… I think the SPTs know that as well, and are making things difficult for the two metals before they get going higher…  

That’s just me thinking out loud, folks… Take it for whatever you think it’s worth… Me? I would be backing up the truck to take advantage of the cheaper prices of Gold/ Silver… I’m just saying…

This from Reuters: “European Central Bank raises interest rates for the second time this year, bumping deposit facility rate, up to 2.5% in response to surging energy costs. But with the dollar staging a mini-rally the euro didn’ respond favorably to the rate hike… It’ll come.. That’s my Pfennig for you today.

The Bank of Japan is set to meet this week, and most observers see the BOJ hiking rates again… I know that sounds strange, because it had been over 2 decades since the BOJ took on inflation, but it is what it is… 

The yen has really rallied a for now… Rate hike thoughts and the overall drop in the dollar are the reasons for the rally in yen. But… Japan’s debt problems, their demographics, and isolation still weigh on the yen, and will come back to haunt the yen once again, in due time… A Pfennig for you from me, today. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised even me this past week with a rate hike of their own. This from Reuters: “European Central Bank raises interest rates for a second time this year, bumping the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. They said that this was in response to surging energy costs. But with the dollar staging a mini-rally the euro didn’ respond favorably to the rate hike… It’ll come… That’s another Pfennig from me today for you…

So, we have the BIG 2 Central Banks meeting this week to discuss interest rates… The Fed/Cabal/ Cartel, and the BOJ… And from the looks of it, all will hike rates in response to rising inflation…

Speaking of rising inflation, I wonder what the propeller heads were thinking when the showed that the STUPID CPI was only 3.4% YTD? I guess they couldn’t come out and print a real inflation number, so they settled for a 3.4% rate, which is still 1.4% above the 2% target that the Fed Heads set… 

Of course, that 2% target hasn’t been matched, so one has to wonder just what the Fed Heads are doing?  I mean, why set a target when you never intend to aim for it?  But that’s a question for them to ponder…. And from my view from the cheap seats…  They aren’t pondering anything… 

Except, the Fed Heads say their main focus is on inflation… They are stuck between a rock and a hard place…  The old two-handed economist comes out… On one hand, the Fed Heads want to show the public that they can fight inflation and bring it down… On the other hand, they realize that to help with the $40 Trillion debt, that higher inflation would certainly help to reduce it… 

The Petrol Currencies are really having a ball right now, with the rising costs of global Oil.. The Norwegian krone, the U.K. Sterling, and the Brazilian real have really responded favorably. Shoot Rudy, even the Mexican peso and Russian ruble are looking better these days… 

I told you last week that the Norwegian Wealth Fund, was thinking about reducing their Treasury / dollar holdings because of the rising risk in holding U.S assets. This is HUGE folks… because the total of Treasury holding by the Fund, is somewhere around $40 Billion…  that would end up seeing the bond market absorb $40 Billion of supply that no one wants right now… Uh-Oh! This isn’t a “policy” right now, but all indicators point to the actual selling of Treasuries…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty today, but all eyes are on Tomorrow, when he FOMC meets and a rate decision will take place… I’m still on the fence about the FOMC actually hiking rates this close to a general election… That’s why I have my eye on the Dec 9 FOMC meeting for the first rate hike… But I do admit that all signs point to a rate hike tomorrow, so there’s that… 

To recap… The dollar selling last week ended on Thursday with some data that points to a rate hike this week. On Friday, though the dollar jus drifted a bit higher… In Chuck’s mind, we’ll get back to dollar selling after the FOMC meets tomorrow…  The Bank of Japan will meet this week to discuss rates, and the ECB did raise them last week.

For What It’s Worth..  Well, we only have one more month to go before we close the books on the U.S.’s fiscal year… And the word is not good as to what to expect… This is what this article on Zerohedge.com has for us and it can be found here: US 2026 Budget Deficit Hits $1.97 Trillion With One Month Left; Interest At Record $1.4 Trillion | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “With DOGE disbanded more than a year ago, and tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, the US is no longer even pretending that there is any hope to normalize spending, or any kind of happy ending to the US debt trajectory.

At 2pm today the US Treasury published the latest, August, monthly budget deficit data, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that things are looking ever worse.

Total US receipts were $360 billion, a modest improvement from the $344 billion a year ago, with individual income taxes accounting for $179 billion, or half of the total, and the bulk of the balance coming from Social Insurance and Retirement receipts of $141 billion.

On the spending side, things were ugly: total outlays were $527 billion, a modest improvement to the $689.1 billion a year ago, but much of that had to do with the calendar impact of tariffs.

Putting receipts and spending in context, a chart of the trailing 6 months of government revenue and spending shows that the two trendlines are rapidly diverging, with spending on pace to surpass the covid all-time high, even as government revenue remains stuck in a much more narrow range.

The difference between the two, is of course, the US budget deficit, which in August was $166.8 billion, an improvement from July’s massive $432 billion deficit, which however was the result of some calendar discrepancies between the two months. What matters more is that fir the first 11 months of fiscal 2026 (with just one month left in the fiscal year), the total US deficit is now $1.97 trillion, identical with last year, although since 2025 saw a big drop in the final month of the year, we are confident that 2026 will be about $200bn worse than the previous year when all is said and done, and be the 3rd worst year for the US deficit on record, with just the crisis years of 2020 and 2021 worse.

Finally, turning to the elephant in the room, namely interest expense, in August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense, which means that with 1 month left in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago…”

Chuck again… And in my own opinion, the spending on bond servicing (interest) will continue to grow higher and higher… Think of Sly Stone and Woodstock, saying, ” I want to take you higher”…  Speaking of Woodstock, I need to get my recording of it and watch it again, I always get a kick out of it… 

Market Prices 9/14/2026: American Style: A$ .7129, kiwi .5772, C$ .7200, euro 1.1550, sterling 1.3490, Swiss $1.2243, European Style: rand 16.2487, krone 9.3239, SEK 9.7711, forint 316.37, zloty 3.7594, koruna 21.0372,  RUB .8422, yen 154.5, sing 1.2706, HKD 7.8435, INR 95.55, China 6.7089, peso 17.09, BRL 5.1614, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 99.48, Oil $103.13, 10-year 4.97%, Silver$63.20, Platinum $1,776.00, Palladium $1,312.00, Copper $642, and Gold $4,292

That’s it for today… The Moh’s surgery on my scalp went off without a hitch… Some pain yesterday but that was soothed by the fact that my beloved Mizzou Tigers beat the heck out of the KU Jayhawks… That was fun! I sat outside at my son, Andrew’s house, watching the game on a big projector screen, with his friends, that really got a kick that I still get excited about Mizzou Football!  Andrew is a great host, too! I was up la lot last night so I’m dragging the line this morning…. Sweet takes us to the finish line today with their song: Fox On The Run… (this is a good song too!) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar sees some love in the overnight markets
• Chuck smells the PPT’s work…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A short week for writing for me, but that’s Ok, the previous week had a Friday message!  My beloved Cardinals blew 3 straight games in San Fran and come home limping to play the White Sox… The manager is to blame for yesterday’s loss… I’ll say no more…  And my beloved Mizzou Tigers take on KU tomorrow night, this game scares me, let’s hope I’m all wrong about that! Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his song; Baby I Need Your Lovin’… 

Well, that was quite the long pfennig yesterday, eh? You see, I’m currently on steroids to get my system all regulated again and Those Steroids keep me awake at night. So, instead of just lying there, I got up and began to write what was on my mind… And voila’ a very long Pfennig…  No add today, I think I’ll included them every other day, going forward. 

I told you yesterday that the dollar was in trouble… And yesterday, after falling to 1,186 in the BBDXY Index, it remained there the rest of the day. The futures markets has lowered their bets on a Rate Hike this month… Last week, the bets were 68% on a rate hike… But now, the bets have fallen to 58%… Maybe, they’ve been reading the Pfennig, where I explained that a rate hike is NOT guaranteed in Sept…Nah… these guys think they are way too smart to be filling their heads with Chuckisms… 

Gold/Silver had good days yesterday, after seeing their levels reduced the previous day, they came back strong yesterday… Gold gained $46 to close at $4,402… And Silver gained $1.63 to close at $67.42… One day up, the next down they see short selling… UGH! 

The price of Oil continues to rise, and yesterday Oil closed at $97.06… Almost $100 again.. But didn’t I tell you a month ago after all the rhetoric was around a Pease Agreement and the price of Oil dropped, that the drop wouldn’t stay down too long… And here we are once again knocking on the door to $100.. And remember, that’s the Global refinery price, long before it gets changed to gas, diesel and Jet Fuel, where all the fun begins, and the final price you pay at the pump is ready for you to consume… 

And the 10-year got a boost from Stanley Druckenmiller’s Wall Street Journal Op-Ed titled, “Let The Bond Markets Speak”… the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.85% and that’s where it stayed to the end of the day…  He was referring to U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent announcement that he was going to double down on bond buying… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, not so fast there Tim… The dollar’s selling ended overnight for a bit, and the BBDXY regained 3 index points to 1,189… I didn’t see that the world had come to a peace agreement and there would be no mor wars, so that’s not what moved the dollar higher… In my mind, it must have been the PPT doing some buying to keep the dollar from falling further… 

The STPs are out and about today, after seeing that their work on getting the short timers out of Gold/ Silver failed once again yesterday, they decided to get right back at the job today. Gold is down $27 to start the day, and Silver is down $1.53… UGH! One day up, the next day down trading really gives me a rash… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and trades this morning with a $96 handle… progress in the Strait is nonexistent, so these blips downward in Oil are just that… Blips… Nothing infrastructure related, so use the blip as your opportunity to buy cheaper… I’m just saying

And the 10-year Treasury is on a march to 5% and Bessent’s bond buying isn’t going to stop the bond boys from their mission… The 10-year starts today at 4.88% 

I think I wrote about everything under the moon and stars yesterday, so there’s nothing more to add…

And do you know what’s fueling inflation? What have I aways taught you? That inflation comes from an expansion of Money Supply… And what’s the U.S.’s money supply situation right now? Well, according to my figures, since this data isn’t published any longer because the Gov’t wants to be able to lie to you about inflation… OK, according to my figures, Money Supply is running at an 8% rate…   That’s a very high rate and unless Fed/Cabal/ Cartel head honcho, Kevin Warsh is serious about fighting inflation… he needs to lasso Money Supply and bring it down… Rate hikes , Schmate Hikes… Money Supply is the key Mr. Warsh… I’m sure that somewhere along your collegiate journey, you studied that, but have forgotten about it… 

I say Rate Hike, Schmate Hikes, because unless Warsh is willing to bring the U.S. economy to its breaking point and beyond, he would look to hike rates double the rate of inflation… John Williams at Shadow Stats.com says real inflation Is 4% or more, so if Warsh hike rates 8.5% he could hang his hat on the same peg as Paul Volker once did…

It’s interesting, I read where John Willams believes that inflation is coming down right now…  Now I hadn’t heard that one, but now, I need to research it and see where he’s coming from with that statement…  inflation may be coming down, but prices sure aren’t!  

The Petrol Currencies are having a really good time watching the price of Oil rising… Shoot Rudy, even the Russian ruble has moved in the right direction these days…  Sterling, krone, reals, and even pesos are all loving this move higher in Oil… And these currencies are from their respective country and the good thing is that they all mine Oil, and refine it… Refineries are the key, and a country like Brazil has to take in refined Oil because they don’t have enough refineries… 

The euro hit 1.1630 yesterday and then stopped rising… The Bundesbank doesn’t like the euro too strong, and I’m sure they manipulated the currency to keep the euro in check…  But, if the dollar continues to lose ground, then the Bundesbank will have to suck it up and take it!  Ahhh, remembering a real Bundesbank President, Hans Tietmeyer… Those were the days, when I used to write about the Bundesbank a lot! But that all changed when the European Central Bank came along and took the starch out of the collars of the Bundesbank…  But they still have a say about monetary Policy in the Eurozone… The Bundesbank is very important in Eurozone, for they are the Central Bank of Germany, which happens to be the largest economy of the Eurozone… Guess who they call on phone when they have a question about monetary policy?  Yes, you guessed it!   ( A little organiation for the Eurozone for you this morning !)

Circling the Wagons regarding Gold.. Ed Steer had this article in his letter yesterday, and so I borrowed it to use here… “Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure even as the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a more assertive stance on inflation.

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, bought bullion on the expectation it will return to $5,000/oz by year-end. Fund managers at Pictet Asset Management, Robeco Institutional Asset Management and Fidelity International also added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high.

“Gold is an asset that we consider to be cheap, a good hedge and reasonably liquid,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute.”

Chuck again…  I’d say that Gold is more than “reasonably liquid”… It IS LIQUID!  I’m sure this guy was just trying to keep the hype bole to an even level… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back on board with some prints today, leading off with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And then PPI (Wholesale Inflation) for August will print… The forecasters are calling for a large upward move in PPI, so I guess we’ll see, eh? So, if PPI is printing today, that means the STUPID CPI will print soon, and tomorrow is soon enough! 

And to finish off, Ron Paul, says people should own Gold, and not the Gov’t… Seems like a very good statement to me!

To recap… The dollar is in trouble, Gold & Silver have great days yesterday, an the price of Oil soars higher, where the 10-year Treasury gets back to seeing its yield rise, this time to 4.85% 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, if you’ve been reading the Pfennig, you would already know that I don’t hold U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent’s recent actions dear to me… In fact… He’s a blowhard! He told an audience at SMU recently, that, “I am the house now”…  since he intervened to keep the Bank of Japan from selling their treasuries… Of course, he tried to sell the action as “helping the Japanese currency”… What a bunch of bunk! Oh, well, apparently, I’m not the only one that thinks he way off base here… And that’s what this article Is all about and can be found here: He once mentored Scott Bessent. Now Stanley Druckenmiller is criticizing the Treasury secretary. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent maneuvers in the bond market have come in for some searing criticism from illustrious investor Stanley Druckenmiller — his mentor and longtime ally.

The billionaire investor, who worked with the Treasury secretary at Soros Fund Management, voiced his disapproval of Bessent’s tactics in a strongly worded op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal Monday. Headlined “Let the bond markets speak,” Druckenmiller’s fault-finding focused on Bessent’s unscheduled announcement last week that the Treasury would at least double its purchases of long-dated bonds

Druckenmiller also strongly denounced the subsequent statement from Treasury Department officials about using the near–$1 trillion Treasury General Account to intervene in the bond market to suppress yields.

Druckenmiller’s critique was unambiguous: “This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management — and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests.”

Druckenmiller’s opposition to Treasury policy in essence boils down to Margaret Thatcher’s famous dictum: “You cannot buck the market.”

‘The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.’

Druckenmiller writes that “markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.”

This is the central point of Druckenmiller’s argument: that governments expand commitments and refuse to rein in spending until “the political price of a rising long bond [yield] finally exceeds the political price of touching spending.”

A research note, also published Monday, by Citadel Securities strategist Nohshad Shah makes a similar point: “This amounts to financial repression at the margin. The bond market’s message is straightforward: fiscal or monetary policy should be tighter. Preventing Treasurys from clearing at lower prices does not eliminate pressure. It merely shifts it elsewhere.”

What annoys Druckenmiller is not just the questionable wisdom of Bessent’s strategy but the necessity. He emphasizes, ”There were no failed auctions, no dealer balance-sheet seizure, no forced unwinds.” In short, there was no market dysfunction that Bessent was obliged to address, just the market pricing Treasury yields at roughly the same rate the U.S. economy grows.

When the national debt has just hit $40 trillion and the budget deficit is around 6% of GDP, Druckenmiller suggests markets are a better judge of bond prices than the Treasury is.”

Chuck Again…  Stanley Druckenmiller is right… He’s so smart and educted, and trustworthy…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 9/10/2026: American Style: A$ .7190, kiwi .5829, C$ .7236, euro 1.1625, sterling 1.3525, Swiss $1.2316, European Style: rand 16.3136, krone 9.2617, SEK 9.6416, forint 313.75, zloty 3.7198, koruna 20.8727,  RUB 84.10, yen 154.15, sing 1.2669, HKD 7.8414, INR 95.44, China 6.7074, peso 16.74, BRL 5.1262, BBDXY 1,189, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $96.21, 10-year 4.88%, Silver $65.59, Platinum $1,834.00, Palladium $1,335.00, Copper $676, and Gold… $4,374

That’s it for today and this week… we finally received some rain last night, and since I couldn’t sleep, I sat there watching the rain fall… This took me back to right after my two huge cancer surgeries, when I would sit on the front porch, just to be outside and watch the sprinkler system work…  My good friend, Mike Kettler, who’s fighting his own cancer right now, came down the street and sat with me for a couple of innings yesterday… It was good to see him out and about… I know that it’s the little things that make your day when you are going through what he’s going through right now… Steelers Wheel takes us to the finish line today with their big 70’s song; Stuck in The Middle With You… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler