Author: admin

I* dollar trading goes to sleep

• Iran war fuels higher fertilizer costs

Good Day… and a tub thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! It was about time! My beloved Cardinals finally beat the Brewers last night… They received a very well pitched game from the starter and +he bats came around… I sat outside to watch the game and it was a beautiful night…  Steeler’s Wheel greets me this morning with their song: Stuck In +he Middle With you!

My “t” is whacky this morning, and I’ve had to go back and retype everything the Morning… UGH@ If I miss something, please just go on…. It’s not my fault!

As I told you yesterday, the war is back on and so the dollar is getting bought… But yesterday the dollar traders must have pulled back on the reins and said “Whoa Partner” Because the BBDXY ended the day in the same clothes as it wore in the morning… The BBDXY was 1,220 all day… 

That didn’t stop the STPs from selling Gold & Silver… Gold lost $32 and Silver lost $1.70 on the day…  I continue to think that all the SPTs do is provide cheaper buying opportunities…  Invesco said in a report that Gold may have had a bad 2nds QTR, but Central Bank buying will continue and drive the price higher…  So, there!  And Rich Checkan at Asset Strategies Inc, said that “now is an opportune time to average into Gold… If you’re waiting for a lower level, you may miss what is right in front of you now.”  thanks for backing up my thought, Rich!

The price of Oil gained $2 on the day and ended the day with a $74 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw some selling and the yield bumped higher to 4.58%

In the overnight markets last night…. The missiles flew, the drone flew, but the dollar remained anchored down at 1,220 in the BBDXY… Gold is trying to build a good price this morning as it is up $26, and Silver is up 39-cents… Yesterday’s STP selloff was, in my humble opinion, a last-ditch effort for this round of wash, rinse and repeat… I’m just saying… AAA

The price of Oil keeps stepping up and this morning it trades with a $74 handle… The 10-year treasury bumped higher overnight, so it starts today with a 4.59%…  Not much in the data cupboard, so the trading will all center around the War in Iran… UGH!

Well, the POTUS is at the NATO meeting and when asked if the war was back on, he replied “We retaliated last night So, I guess you can say that Iran lied, cheated and broke the Peace Agreement”…. 

That’s not a good thing for our debt situation in the U.S. for missiles cost a lot of money that we don’t have… and the cost of having Navy ships full of sea men on them is outrageous…  So, expect HUGE Budget numbers when they print… I’m just saying…

And sounding like a broken record here… The larger the debt, the larger the debt servicing (interest charge)… And sooner or later the debt servicing will cost more of our National Budget than any other item… 

And now to top it off… The Fed Heads are talking about hiking interest rates…  Well, not all of them that is… Kevin Warsh is whiskey bound to show us we’ve calculated inflation all wrong , and his was will bring about a rate cut…  While inflation is rising (our way of calculating it) and Money Supply is growing like a weed. 

I started to become dehydrated again yesterday, but started drinking water, ASAP, and I seem to have fought it off…  

Circling the wagons aound the War… Reuters had a good piece on other things that the war influences… here is a piece of that piece… “Modern farming depends on cheap fertilizer. The war with Iran has made fertilizer more expensive, with ships trapped, fertilizer plants shut down, farmers panicking and world food production thrown into peril

The war cut off 17% of the world’s natural gas supply and more than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer supply. Almost half of the world’s exported sulfur, a critical component for another type of fertilizer, was trapped in the Middle East Gulf.

The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz means it will be months or years before some natural gas and fertilizer production returns to a pre-war normal.  “

Chuck Again…  just more pfodder for the⁠ items making up inflation… higher fertilizer costs… means higher food costs… and in the end, we as consumers shell out more disposable income… UGH!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had Consumer Credit (read debt) for May… yes, that was 2 months ago, but the propeller heads have been too busy to get this out timely….  Here’s the ABA’s view of the report: “Total outstanding revolving credit, largely a reflection of credit card debt, decreased at an annual rate of 4.7% to $1.344.2 trillion. Total outstanding nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6% to $3,810.3 trillion.

The Federal government holdings of student loans continue to be the largest portion of non-revolving credit, comprising 42.2% percent of nonrevolving credit.”

Chuck again… Long explanation but it is what it is…  The Data Cupboard also had the FOMC Meeting Minutes which I have for you in the FWIW section today

Today’s Data Cupboard continues the trend for this week, not much in the cupboard… Today we’ll only see the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and then the Cupboard goes bare for the rest of today and tomorrow!

To recap… The dollar didn’t move much yesterday and ended wearing the same figure it had on the morning… Gold & Silver still saw the SPTs but, Chuck thinks that the SPTs have done nothing but created cheaper buying opportunities, and he had a special guest agree with him… 

For What It’s Worth… I told you above that I had something for you on the FOMC Meeting Minutes and I do… And it can be found here: Fed minutes June 2026: officials split on rates

Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes.

During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate as a “family fight” that ended with the committee unanimously voting to keep the Fed’s benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.

However, the minutes did not elaborate on any drama that had taken place and outlined divergent views from members without a bias to which way the committee was leaning. The dot-plot grid of individual members’ expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years.

Asked to judge their most likely scenario, “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the minutes stated.”

Chuck Again… “a family fight”  but, as I said above, Warsh is going to attempt to sway his family and get to a rate cut…. I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/9/2026: American Style: A$.6931, kiwi .5733, C$ .7051, euro 1.1425, sterling 1.3392, Swiss $1.2426, European Style rand 16.3909, krone 9.7604, SEK 9.6187, forint 313.88, zloty 3.7714, koruna 21.2321, RUB 76.15, yen 162.48, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.8364, INR 95.38, China 6.7959, peso 17.56, BRL 5.1507, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index $100.99, Oil $74.00, 10-year 4.59%, Silver $58.96, Platinum $1,616.00, Palladium $1,263.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,101

That’s it for today and this week… The Mighty Braves come to town this weekend to play my Cardinals… And then next Tues is the All-Star Game… 2 Cardinals were chosen, and will be in Philadelphia for the game… Well, I got through the letter today with my “T” being wonky, so I should get a gold Star! HA! Next week I start my summer vacation on Thursday… I’m so excited to get back to our winter home… The Great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line with his song: Time Passages… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The war trade has the dollar climbing again
• And Gold/Silver getting sold… UGH!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Kathy and I were at a conference in Bermuda quite a few years ago, when a young man asked me, “Why do you start the day, so upbeat? I told him, because the day hadn’t beaten me up yet…  And so, it is, with my beginnings… J.J. Jackson greets me this morning with his song, and one we used to play in my first band: But It’s Alright… 

Ahhh, my first band, The Soul Wonders Revue… I was the main singer, mostly because the other band mates were scared to sing in public….   We had Gold shirts, and Gold lame pants and did dance steps with the music…  My mom used to sit in the basement while we practiced and tell us how good we were! 

I’m beating around the bush today, because… The war with Iran seems to be back on, as Iran bombed two ships yesterday, and the U.S. will, at some time retaliate…  UGH

So, that means, the dollar got bought and Gold & Silver were sold….  So, I’m not a happy camper this morning after reading that news… 

Gold lost $58 yesterday, and Silver lost $2.09…. Gold closed the day at $4,107 and Silver closed at $60.09…  I had really thought that Gold /Silver had crossed the bridge to better times, but a return to the start took place yesterday… 

The price of Oil jumped $3 to a $72 handle because of the renewed tensions in the Gulf… And the 10-year Treasury really saw its yield rise to 4.55%… No Fed Head intervention here, yesterday… 

In The overnight markets last night…  The war trade dug deeper into the minds of traders as the dollar wondered through the night, which puts the BBDXY at 1,220 to start our day today… 

The boys 7 girls of the STPs saw the opportunity with the war heating up to whack Gold & Silver more! Gold is down $39 and Silver is down $1.14 to start our Wednesday… Silver has lost more than $3 in the last two trading sessions, and has a $58 handle attached to it this morning… UGH!   The dollar and the price of Oil love this War tensions thing… And the stock jockeys? They shrug off everything and buy stocks…  

Well, the price of Oil has rebounded to trade with a $73 handle this morning… And just about the time that the pundits were writing off the price of Oil and calling for a less than $40 price for the black gold, Texas tea… I’m glad I didn’t fall into that way of thinking, I’m a jaded person here and I thought the Peace Agreement was a farce, which it has proven to be, and that the price of Oil was mispriced to begin with! 

The 10-year Treasury this morning has seen some yield control buying and its yield sits at 4.56% to start our day… 

I read this past weekend that 41 Tons of Gold was bought by Central Banks around the world in May…  They buy it and don’t get all caught up in the fact that Gold lost 11% in June…  China is the leader of the Central Bank buying, and I’m sure they really enjoy the dips as an extra incentive to buy more!

When the Central Banks started buy boat loads of physical Gold a couple of years ago, I said then that my dad taught me to follow the money, because money talks and B.S walks…  And because of that teaching I said that we as consumer, investors, etc. needed to follow the money which was going into Gold…. Because Gold is real money…. and not pieces of paper that say that it is backed by the Gov’t that printed it… like dollars that used to fill up the reserves of Central Banks…

Ok, enough of that! You know, as longtime readers that at times I go off on tangents, and it takes me a while before I come back…. I apologize, but I’ve always written what was on mind, and my minds seems to switch topics often! 

The short sellers continue to remain relevant, but something is awry with their numbers… The number of days of production that would be needed to produce the number of ounces of Gold/Silver sold short…. 

I remember when I used to tell you that Silver was up to 185 days of production to equal the ounces sold short, and Gold was up to over 80 days… But these days, Silver is down to 103 days needed to cover, and Gold is down to 42 days needed to cover…  So, at least these numbers are moving in the right direction…. Wouldn’t it be nice to live together, in a kind of world we belong? No, Wait! No Beach Boys are needed here! But it would be nice to have zero days of production to cover the shorts? That would be seashells and balloons in incredible amounts!

There are no Central Bank interest rate meetings this week, so the currencies have to fight off dollar strength because of the War… 

Yesterday we saw the latest Trade Balance for May and without tariffs, the Balance returned to a Deficit (like it used to be all the time) Here’s the WSJ: “The U.S. trade deficit ballooned in May to its widest since March 2025 as the country imported more products like pharmaceuticals, vehicles and semiconductors for the artificial-intelligence boom, while American-made exports declined.”

A lot of the AI purchases were front loaded which means that the companies that did the purchasing did so on Credit…  And that’s something I’m wondering about here…  Last week I told you that most of the AI companies were not making profits, and then they go deeper into debt buying AI stuff?  It doesn’t add up for me…  

And the other side of this report was an export number that was awful! So, we’re back to normal operations, buying more than we sell…  For a country that can make or produce just about anything, I find this to be not a good thing… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the meeting minutes of the last FOMC meeting where it was Kevin Warsh’s first as chairman…  And we’ll also see the color of the latest Consumer Credit (Read debt) of which is forecast to have fallen in May from April… 

To recap… The war was back on yesterday, and that meant that the dollar received some love, and Gold/Silver got sent to woodshed…  Chuck goes the whole 9 yards on Gold/Silver this morning… so if you skipped through the Pfennig you might want to go back and see what you missed!

For What It’s Worth… Now, this is an article that I loved to read about! It’s about Gold being found in California and it could lead to a new Gold Rush, and it can be found here: $8B gold mining project in Mariposa brings California one step closer to new gold rush – ABC30 Fresno

Or, here’s your snippet: “More than a century after prospectors helped establish Mariposa during California’s Gold Rush, mining companies are once again turning their attention to the area in search of valuable minerals.

Mariposa, located within California’s historic Mother Lode gold belt, was founded during the Gold Rush era. Today, new mining projects are drawing attention from residents, investors, and industry observers as companies seek to develop sites with significant mineral deposits.

“We are the gold mining capital of all California; here was the biggest hit across the entire state. In fact, it’s coming back a little,” Jennifer Kiser, Mariposa County Supervisor said.

Two companies are leading the renewed interest in mining activity in the area.

Lode Gold is pursuing a high-grade development project at the historic Fremont Mine. Preliminary assessments estimate the site contains about $8 billion in gold.

“They did a lot of core testing and magnetic residence, all kinds of fancy stuff to prove yes there’s enough gold here,” said Randy Bolt, Mariposa Gem and Mineral Club”

Chuck Again… YAHOO! There’s Gold in them Hills! Let’s hope that this ends good and that we don’t see that the only people making money here are the ones selling shovels!

Market Prices 7/7/2026: American Style: A$ .6918, kiwi .5691, C$ .7048, euro 1.1400, sterling 1.3340, Swiss $1.2362, European Style: rand 16.4056, krone 9.7735, SEK 9.7049, forint 313.97, zloty 3.7809, koruna 21.2760, RUB 76.41, yen 162.53, sing 1.2946, HKD 7.8385, INR 95.56, China 6.8007, peso 17.59, BRL 5.1738, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 101.21, Oil $73.96, 10-year 4.56%, Silver $58.95, Platinum $1,557.00, Palladium $1,239.00, Copper $6.09, and Gold… $4,068

That’s it for today… Another loss by my beloved Cardinals last night made them 0 for 2 as a double header was played yesterday… UGH! We just can’t beat the Brewers!  Any other team we take 2of 3 or whatever from but not the Brewers! And that’s bad because they lead our division!  I got dehydrated yesterday and had to go inside and rest and drink water… I don’t know how this happened, but I knew it was dehydration right away because I’ve been dehydrated before… The Rascals take us to the finish line today with their song: It’s A Beautiful Morning… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar loses ground yesterday
• Where have al the jobs goine?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, all good things come to an end, and in this case the U.S. Men’s Soccer Team’s run in the World Cup… Europe always seems to have our number, when it comes to soccer, and so it was last night with Belgium… I had 2 TVs going last night one with the Cardinals and the other with the U.S soccer game… Both lost so I was no luck for them…   R.E.M. Greets me this morning with their song: The One I Love…

Well, the brief buying of the dollar yesterday morning petered out, and on the day the dollar lost 1 index point in the BBDXY, as it closed at 1,218…   You know, one of these days, the dollar bugs are going to sit down and read about all the problems in the U.S. and then, and only then, they will finally see that the writing is on the wall and that they need to be selling dollars… 

Gold/Silver never got the chance to turnaround their early morning losses as the SPTs kept the pressure on them all day… Gold ended the day at $4,165m down $11 on the day… And Silver ended the day at $62.18 down 34-cents on the day…  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $68 handle throughout yesterday and the 10-year fought the “yield control dastardly dudes” and the 10-year’s yield ended the day at 4.48%… 

In the overnight markets last night…  there was no movement in the dollar overnight, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,218…  It’s as if the dollar bugs have all gone on vacation or something… Who knows?

The price of Gold is flat this morning, after spending most of the night in the red, Gold has fought back to start the day in the same clothes as it wore at last night’s close… Silver is down 59-cents to start the day, but if Gold takes off higher from here it will drag Silver along for the ride… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $69 handle this morning, and the 10-year remained trading with a 4.48% yield… 

A long-time reader of the Pfennig, Bob, sent me an article that gave me the shudders… I’ve cut a piece of it out here for you… This is from Quartz.com and here’s a piece: “Manufacturing’s decline didn’t arrive as a single event. It came in waves, separated by stretches of false recovery, and the communities hit hardest never fully came back. Now, as AI-driven displacement begins to reach white-collar knowledge workers, the manufacturing collapse is the closest historical template available.

U.S. manufacturing employment peaked at 19.6 million in June 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found. By December 2009, that figure had fallen to 11.5 million. The drop wasn’t gradual. It happened in five distinct collapses, each tied to a recession, and after every one, employment never climbed back to where it stood before.

The question is whether anyone will learn from previous events before AI has the same effect on white-collar workers.

Some researchers say generative AI could reshape half the workload for nearly a third of the workforce, particularly those in law and finance. Others claim about 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by large language models, with higher-income jobs facing the greatest exposure.”

Chuck again… C’Mon AI can’t be that darn good, that it can replace 10% of the work of 80% of the workers, can it?  I sometimes wonder if AI ends up doing as much for the economy as the internet did…  I’m just wondering… 

Well, the new el jefe of the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, Kevin Warsh is saying the right things about wanting to slay inflation, but does he have the intestinal fortitude to do the job? I guess we’ll all have to wait-n-see, but in the meantime back at the ranch, inflation continues to rise and real inflation is probably around 8-9%… So, to me it would be helpful for Warsh to come out and say what inflation really is without hedonic adjustments… Only then, will we be able to start to whittle it down, by shutting off Money Supply…

I saw a report calling for Gold to reach a price of $4,600… Now, that was the first forecast that seemed reachable to me…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Trade Balance for us… And tomorrow, we’ll see the FOMC’s meeting minutes… They ought to be interesting as there was lots of discussion about rate hikes at the last meeting…  So, hold your horses, we’ll only have to wait until tomorrow… 

To recap… The dollar’s brief rally yesterday morning petered out and the dollar ended up losing 1 index point… Gold & Silver couldn’t find a bid and lost ground on the day… And Warsh wants slay inflation, he’s going to have to prove he’s the knight in white shining armor to do the job…

For What It’s Worth… Well, it had to come about sometime, the sooner the better as far as I’m concerned. What I’m talking about is how Wall Street if finally getting the picture that the Gov’ts economic reporting is bullocks!  That report can be found here: On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s ‘misleading’ job numbers

Or, here’s your snippet: “Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia (with $1.3 billion in assets under management), had a visceral reaction to the June jobs number from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: “These data are misleading and should be disregarded,” he said in an email to Fortune. “There is zero chance leisure and hospitality posts a negative print in the midst of the World Cup. Revisions higher in the next few months are coming.”

He’s not alone.

Increasingly, analysts and economists at major banks and financial institutions are saying they don’t believe the numbers. Partly, this is a routine function of the way in which the U.S. government collects economic stats. It takes time to gather all the survey data needed to describe hiring (nonfarm payrolls, in the official lingo), and the BLS publishes a series of revisions to its numbers as the months go by.

So not believing the initial figure is par for the course. The numbers will always be revised later as straggling data sets and survey responses trickle in.”

Chuck again…  As soon as Wall Street starts to ignore the Gov’t’s economic reports, the Gov’t will have to change their stance that good reports fool the people into thinking that the economy is just rosy… 

Market Price 7/7/2026: American Style: A$ .6951, kiwi .5695, C$ .7034,  euro 1.1440, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.2414, European Style: rand 16.2280, krone 9.8036, SEK 9.6523, forint 309.07, zloty 3.7516, koruna 21.1777, RUB 76.17, yen 161.76, sing 1.2908, HKD 7.8422, INR 94.96, China 6.7930, peso 17.41, BRL 5.1334, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 100.89, Oil $69.04, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $61.59, Platinum $1,662.00, Palladium $1,304.00, Copper $6.29, and Gold… $4,165

That’s it for today… well, the doctor’s suggestions worked for a few days, but then last night I woke up with stomach problems again…UGH! Oh, well, they only last about 10 minutes, but then it takes me a bit to get back to sleep… My beloved Cardinals couldn’t hold their 3=0 lead and lost to the Brew Crew last night… Two TV’s and two losses… Went to dinner last night with good friends, so it was good to do something different! Paul Simon takes us to the finish line this morning with his song: You Can Call Me Al… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar sees some buying overnight
• Our Debt, the gift that keeps on giving…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did your 4^th of July celebration go well, without injuries and stuff? I sure hope so! Mine was low key, as it has been for the last 5 years… I really wanted to go out and celebrate, but my body said no way, Jose! I overslept last Thursday, thus the reason for the late Pfennig that day… Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: I Wish…

And I wish, that all this debt would go away… Oh, the things we wish for…  I was really mad on Thursday morning last week, first for waking up late, and second for my not knowing what caused the selloff of the dollar…   But there it was right before my eye!

Right before my eye, and I had even mentioned it! The BLS surprise labor report that showed 57,000 jobs created in May, was THE reason… As, traders all saw that and said, “no way they can hike rates now”… of course, we all know it was a knee-jerk reaction to the news, of which could be changed next month for sure! 

OK, enough of all that… Now onto what happened going into the weekend… But first I want to mention that previous month’s jobs totals were downward revised… See? I told you they would get revised downward, but no one will notice and just move along… 

The dollar held its ground going into the weekend, and the BBDXY went into Friday’s close at 1,219. The euro remained trading above the 1.14 figure, so the dollar wasn’t getting any love, just not any hate either!   The currencies, as I’ve explained many times in the past, follow the lead of the euro, so as long as the euro is getting bought, the rest of the currencies are seeing some attention too… 

The price of Gold ended the week at $4,176 as it was up $52 on Friday… It seems to me that Gold has seen the depths for this cycle of wash, rinse, repeat from the STPs… I said last week that I wasn’t going to go out on a limb again and call for the selling of Gold to have stopped… But this I 3 days in a row that Gold has closed up, so that has to be worth something! 

Silver also went in the weekend with a gain of $1.43 and a close of $62.52…  

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $68 handle. But I do expect the price of Oil to be on a downward movement, as the Oil flows out of the Gulf are starting… At least that’s what I read!

And the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 4.49% yield…  I read this past weekend that the 6-year Treasury hit 4% yield last week, that’s quite high for the bond in quite a few years!  I think that the bond boys are telling the Fed Heads to get on with a rate hike or two, and ask them what are they waiting for?

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar is in the driver’s seat this morning as the BBDXY starts the day/week at 1,221…. I guess the selling due to the rotten as tomatoes labor report last week, has worn off… Fickle currency traders… That’s all I have to say about that!  

Gold / Silver are starting the day/week getting sold a bit. Gold is down $23 and Silver is down 20-cents…  It’s as if currency traders thought that Gold & Silver needed to be sold, but not by a lot… Those are easily turned around red figures, so that’s what I’m expecting today…

The price of Oil remained trading with a $68 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some yield control by the Fed Heads and with that the yield on the bond dropped to 4.46% to start our day today…

The Japanese yen returned to the 162 handle overnight… I guess the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be entertaining thoughts of wasting more money buying yen only to have the markets bring the currency back to where they believe it should be…. 

And the Brazilian real continues to hang tough VS dollar strength… while the Euro Wannabes (zloty, koruna and Czech) are still in rally mode, which indicates to me that the dollar buying will be short-lived… 

I found this on Yahoo Finance on Saturday…”Some 720,000 people left the labor force in June, helping the jobless rate edge down.

Of particular concern: The labor force participation rate for those in their prime working years fell to 83.3% in June, suggesting the trend wasn’t driven solely by people aging out of the workforce. “

Chuck again… The other thing that was weird about the BLS’s labor report was that those folks that have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks remains at 27% of the total number of jobless people… and the 720,000 number above isn’t just retiring baby boomers… put that in your tea!

Our debt continues to grow… This is really becoming a chase to the bottom, as each month we print a higher than the previous month’s debt total… We can’t escape it… When the debt was around $10 Trillion there was hope that higher inflation would help bring that back down, but now with our debt days away from becoming $40 Trillion we can forget about that!

Above, I talked about all this debt… and then I was reading Bill Bonner’s letter and he explained the problem much better than I… here’s Bill: “Today, an 8% interest charge on $40 trillion in debt would mean an interest hit of $3.2 trillion. As a percentage of GDP that is actually lower than the Volcker shock. But in raw numbers, it is much bigger…and it would be striking an economy that is much more brittle. Federal debt is only about a third of the whole credit load.”

Chuck Again… yes, he was talking about how Volcker raised the Fed Funds rate to 20% to combat 10% inflation…   That’s how he got the 8% interest rate as our inflation supposedly is 4%… 

And to top things off I read this weekend that Money Supply is soaring! And it has been growing since Rocktober last year… At the end of May it was in dollar terms of $23 Billion… And what have I taught you over and over again about Money Supply? That Money Supply leads right into inflation…  So, the Fed Heads may hike interest rates, but that will only increase the yield on T-Bills and short T-Notes, and as long as Money Supply keeps rising, the inflation isn’t going anywhere but up…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have anything real to look at until Wednesday this week, and then it’s Consumer Credit (read debt) and the FOMC’s meeting minutes… So, nothing to help the dollar out of its malaise right now, and the only thing the dollar can hope for is for the War to pick up…

To recap… The dollar held on to its level on Friday, as the selling of the dollar abated… Gold /Silver went into the weekend on good terms for the first time in some time for the two… Chuck is all up in arms about our debt again…. And the unemployment numbers were weird…. 

For What It’s Worth… I spent some time on the BLS’s labor report and then this report just said, “print me” and so I did, and it can be found here: June jobs report shows just 57,000 payrolls, well below expectations

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday, falling well short of analysts’ expectations. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected 115,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%.

Downward revisions to prior months darkened the picture further. April’s count was cut by 31,000 to 148,000, while May’s was trimmed by 43,000 to 129,000, leaving the two-month combined total 74,000 short of what had originally been reported.

Analysts had anticipated the jobless rate would remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month, so the dip to 4.2% was a mild surprise — though it was driven in part by workers stepping back from the labor market. Participation slipped 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio edged down 0.2 percentage point to 59.0%. The number of unemployed people held at 7.1 million.

Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payroll employees rose 13 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.64 in June. Over the past year, wages are up 3.5%.

The June figure is roughly in line with the average monthly job gain over the prior 12 months, which stood at 36,000, the BLS said.

Federal Reserve officials are next scheduled to meet at the end of July. The report leaves Fed officials with little additional guidance as they continue to debate the direction of interest rates.”

Chuck again…  Just thought we would get the Jobs jamboree out of our system today… 

Market Prices 7/6/2026: American Style: A$ .6936, kiwi .5696, C$ .7032, euro 1.1416, sterling 1.3344, Swiss $1.2403, European Style: rand 16.2226, krone 9.8385, SEK 9.6500, forint 309.63, zloty 3.7564, koruna 21.1550, RUB 77.65, yen 162.35, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.8426, INR 95.42, China 6.7958, peso 17.47, BRL 5.1693, BBDXY 1,221, Dollar Index 101.06, Oil $68.56, 10-year 4.46%, Silver $62.22, Platinum $1,645.00, Palladium $1,302.00, Copper $6.22, and Gold… $4,153

That’s it for today… Well, on the 4th, I fired up the Big Green Egg and smoked some pork steaks (a St. Louis tradition) and boy were they yummy! My wife even complemented me on how good the pork steaks came out!  We are getting near my annual traditional summer vacation… I will last write on July 15^th and then return on July 30th….  So, mark your calendars! Sat & Sun I had just gotten finished cooking outside when a rainstorm came on and chased me inside… Emerson, Lake and Palmer take us to the finish line today with their song: Still Your Turn Me On… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Something’s happening here and what it is I can’t see…
• Gold/Silver are back on the rally train

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well! I’m a grandparent again to our 5^th grandchild and the first for Alex and Grace… A bouncing baby boy was born yesterday mid-day and I rushed to the hospital to see him and them! Grace was in the hospital yesterday morning while I was writing, and Kathy scolded me and told me not to say anything in the Pfennig about that… I guess she knows me all too well! Cat Stevens greets me this morning with his song: If Your Want To Sing Out, Sing Out… 

Well, the damage to the currencies took place overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, as I described here yesterday. But… as yesterday unfolded, the dollar buying ended and in fact some selling began, thus leaving the BBDXY at 1,224… up 2 index points on the day, but down 1 index point from the high of the day. 

And Gold did hold onto its early morning gains yesterday, as it gained $25 to close at $4,038, and Silver gained $1.05 to close at $59.23… The SPTs were there and moved the metals around a bit, but the physical buying and ETF buying was greater this day, so Gold & Silver gained… 

The price of Oil slide further yesterday and ended the day with a $67 handle… That’s down $4 from where it traded on Monday this week, but is a direct illustration of what’s going on in the Gulf…  

The 10-year Treasury was stuck in the mud yesterday and ended the day the same as it started, with a 4.48% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… Whoa, there partner! What the heck went on overnight and early this morning?  Well, the BLS reported that they saw only 57,000 jobs created in May, for one…   But other than that, I can’t find a thing that tells me why the dollar has been getting sold… The BBDXY is down 6 index points to start our day, and Gold is up $109!  I hate it when there’s nothing on the news wires to tell me what’s going on, and yet, something BIG has happened…  

This downward move in the dollar is not unexpected by me, as I was scratching my bald head wondering why the dollar was so strong, and it still is somewhat strong, but not as strong…   Oh, well, I’ll go into the weekend with my red, white, and Blue on wondering what caused the dollar to get whipsawed…  I’m sure to have an answer on Monday next week…. 

Gold is up $109 this morning, and Silver is up $1.56… Let’s see the STPs try to take them down now!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $67 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.48% yield…   

Well, have you heard the news that China is attaching Gold to their currency?  Boy, I remember many years ago, when I said that’s why they were amassing so much physical Gold… I also remember that people like James Rickards laughed at that idea…. He wasn’t the only analyst that thought I had gone off my rocker… 

But I’m firmly on the rocker as China has announced a small piece of Gold that will be backing their new digital currency…  Hey! They are not in the business of giving away the store! So, whatever the amount of Gold that’s backing the currency and convertible to… it will be worth more than a dollar that’s really only backed by good faith…. 

Or, you could argue that the dollar is backed by Treasuries… And in my mind that’s only bit better than “good faith” as Treasuries are getting sold by Countries all over the world right now…. Yes, these same countries are still showing up at the auction window, but not with grand designs of buying boat loads of Treasuries…  

And as I’ve described previously, many times I might add, Treasuries are what we use to finance the issuance of dollars… All of our current $39 Trillion national debt is secured by Treasuries, or are they?  With money supply growing like a weed, more Treasuries will have to be sold at a time when Central Banks are backing away from buying so much….

The U.S. has only two choices… They can stop deficit spending and take a chainsaw to the current Debt… Or, they can raise the yield on the Treasuries they are trying to sell to make them more attractive so they will hopefully be bought….

It’s been some time since I got up on the pedestal and Opined like that, but since that’s what I’m known for… I let loose!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment Report and it showed that 122,000 jobs were added in May, up from 105,000 in April…  Ok, do you recall when jobs were going by the wayside in the ADP but the BLS would shows great gains in jobs?  Well, with the ADP showing job growth, I can only imagine what the BLS will show as jobs created in May will be today… 

The U.S ISM (manufacturing index) was up and over the 50 level that denotes expansion… So, the economy has that going for it… 

To recap… The dollar buying overnight from Tuesday night ended in the U.S. time Wednesday and in fact, the dollar saw some selling here… Gold/Silver gained on Wednesday even though the SPTs were around… keeping the metals in check… and China makes a new announcement! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, since in two days, we as a country will celebrate our 250 anniversary as a free country….  And I’m certain that many a back yard will be busy with BBQ pits all fired up… So, with that in mind this article is about how costly that will be and it can be found here: US beef prices stay red-hot for summer cookouts | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. grill masters and home chefs face ​sizzling beef prices for summer cookouts as drought and wildfires have discouraged ranchers from expanding cattle supplies that are at ‌their lowest levels in 75 years.

The record-high beef prices have strained the wallets of U.S. consumers who also saw gas prices spike because of the Middle East conflict. Though demand has remained generally strong for steaks and hamburgers, some shoppers have shifted to other proteins, such as chicken, to save money.

Ahead of Independence Day on July 4, ​a major holiday for grilling, the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute estimated the cost of a summer barbecue for 10 people will rise ​by 2.4% from last year to $161, with hamburger beef up 14%.

“There is no real lever to pull in the ⁠domestic market to get more supply in the short term,” said Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s chief agricultural economist.

President Donald Trump has encouraged low-tariff imports of ​Argentine beef to cool U.S. prices, angering American ranchers, and directed the Department of Justice to investigate whether U.S. meatpackers are colluding to raise prices.”

Chuck Again… Give me good old midwestern raised cattle for my beef, that’s what I say!

Market Prices 7/2/2026: American Style: A$ .6925, kiwi .5698, C$ .7052, euro 1.1445, sterling 1.3367, Swiss $1.2486, European Style: rand 16.2720, krone 9.8398, SEK 9.6634, forint 309.70, zloty 3.7435, koruna 21.1404,  RUB 77.72, yen 160.90, sing 1.2911, HKD 7.8426, INR 95.39, China 6.7867, peso 17.46, BRL 5.1956, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 100.78, Oil $67.68, 10-year 4.478%, Silver $62.14, Platinum $1,638.00, Palladium $1,298.00, Copper $6.19, and Gold… $4,142

That’s it for today… So, we have a new baby in the family… Everybody loves a baby! Brooks Butler is his name, and he was born one day after his Dad’s (Alex) birthday… I told Kathy that he did that on purpose! HA! My beloved Cardinals didn’t win last night in Atlanta, but the U.S. Men’s Soccer Team won, and they even had to play one man short for a long time in the 2^nd half…. Now they are onto the round of 16, where they will play Begium on Sunday… My song for the finish line today is a fave of mine… Poco’s  Rose of Cimarron… if you don’t get moved by his song, then I don’ know what to tell you! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought once again and pushes the currencies down
• Central Banks are shifting away from dollars

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my trip to the oncologist didn’t produce any major changes, so it was more of a “carry on my wayward son” (Kansas). My beloved Cardinals found their bats and won in Atlanta last night…  I came home from the hospital and fell into my recliner and didn’t move for hours! I was beat, and I didn’t know why?  Oh, well, mysteries of the Universe…  The Alan Parson’s Project greet me this morning with their song: Time

Welcome to July… Pfennig Tradition calls for this:  There I was on a July morning, Looking for Love, And with the strength of a new day dawning, And a Beautiful Sun….  (Uriah Heap)

Well, the dollar that selling that took us into the weekend, last, didn’t last long, and the buying of the dollar has taken over again. Monday, there was a little buying, and Tuesday followed up Monday with a bit of buying of its own, but in the overnight markets last night, the dogs have been released! The BBDXY is up over 3 index points to start our day today, as the war continues in Iran… Oh, I know, there are reports that there’s peace, but those are just to get everyone settled down… The real story is that the Missiles and drones are still flying around and that has the dollar getting bought… 

The dollar has risen so quickly that the currencies are being left behind… The euro which had rebounded to the 1.14 handle, saw that rally put to bed, and quickly it was in the 1.13 handle… The Japanese yen which had been 161 something for weeks now, saw that disappear and a new 162 handle has replaced it…  

I do want to mention that there is one currency that has been weathering the dollar storm to a degree and that is the Brazilian real (BRL). This is all because of the good that the President has put into the Government, he has all but balanced their budget and inflation is falling…   So, check them out!

Gold saw two very distinct moves yesterday… Before I left for the hospital, Gold was up $25, and I thought that it was going to be a good day for Gold…  Well, when I returned home, I checked Gold and saw that the SPTs really ripped into Gold and it had given back the $25 it had gained earlier, and the damage had been done… Gold closed yesterday at $4,008…   Silver saw the same trading pattern as Gold, and it closed at $58.49, a full $1.80+ away from where it was earlier in the morning… UGH! 

The price of Oil had seemed to have turned around, until yesterday… The price of Oil fell $2 to a $69 handle and has fallen through the $69 handle to start the day today at $69.02

And the 10-year Treasury yesterday didn’t see any signs of interference from the Fed Heads, so its yield rose to 4.48%…  The Fed Heads talk last week after their meeting, that interest rates would have to go higher before year-end, if inflation continues to be on the rise, has really pushed the yield on this bond and the Fed Heads have no one else to blame… 

In the overnight markets last night… There was more buying of the dollar, but it was watered down from yesterday’s BIG rally…  And Gold is up $25 again this morning… What gives with the SPTs is what matters these days… Even though in a report from the Official Monetary Financial Institution that in their recent survey the first time since they began recording, that Central Banks are shifting away from the dollar… 

Yes that could mean that they are going to be buying other currencies but mostly likely it means that that will be buying Gold instead of dollars…  And the SPTs must have known about this report because they are hell bent and whiskey bound to keep Gold/Silver from reaching for the stars… 

The price of Oil and the yield on the 10-year are the same as they were yesterday at the close, so no change there… 

Regarding the War continuing… This is from CNBC.com ““The markets are a little uneasy about ​how stable the [memorandum of understanding] is and there’s pressure on gold because people are not seeing much light at the end of the tunnel,” Marex analyst Edward Meir, said.”

Chuck Again…  yes, as I said above, the masses are hearing that Peace has taken over, but there are many questions and the missiles and drones keep flying… 

And last week that European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates and pointed to the higher reports of Inflation… but these guys at the ECB have no one else to point the finger of blame at except themselves… There was a report yesterday that Eurozone money supply has grown and not just a little bit… May’s report was up 3.2% VS April’s 2.7%… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report for May for us today… The national ISM report for May is also supposed to print…  I don’t think either one will play into the dollar or Gold/Silver trading today, so I hope I’m wrong about that!

To recap… The dollar selling that took us into the weekend, last, ended on Monday with a bit of buying and the same on Tuesday, but the overnight markets last night saw the dollar kick some tail, and it starts today up considerably from where it was on Friday’s close…  Central Banks are shifting away from buying dollars…  

For What It’s Worth… This report is about a warning signal in the stock market that I think we should all know about and it can be found here: In a warning sign, analysis shows publicly traded credit funds are unprofitable | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “he majority of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) — the visible part of the private credit market — have turned unprofitable due to falling asset values and ​rising costs, a Reuters analysis shows, in the latest sign of pressure building in this highly leveraged corner of finance.

The $3.5 trillion private credit industry, where specialist funds step into ‌a role traditionally held by banks to lend to mid-sized companies, has lately come under stress due in part to its sizeable exposure to software companies disrupted by AI advances. BDCs are investment loan vehicles that make money by collecting interest payments on credit extended to borrowers.

Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. 

A Reuters analysis of balance sheet data from S&P Global Market Intelligence examined 53 publicly traded BDCs, finding that their loan losses and debt costs have jumped. A number of those BDCs are also utilizing ​more off-balance-sheet borrowing.

Companies in this industry tend to be appraised based on the health of their net investment income, which excludes changes in underlying loan values.

However, S&P’s data platform standardizes net ​profit figures across all BDCs to arrive at a bottom-line income figure that adds in debt costs and changes in loan values, using figures either from ⁠a third-party appraisal company or by the BDC’s fund manager.

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Using that data, the group was unprofitable for the first time since at least 2024, largely due to write-downs on the value of their ​assets, such as loans to software companies.”

Chuck again… Just shows to go you that unless you want read about the War in Iran or the Strait of Hormuz that the well is dry considering FWIW articles…  I’m just saying….

Market Prices 7/1/2026: American Style: A$.6896, kiwi .5676, C$ .7032, euro 1.1382, sterling 1.3282, Swiss $1.2336, European Style: rand 16.4140, krone 9.9253, SEK 9.7380, forint 312.28, zloty 3.7713, koruna 21.4492, RUB 78.06, yen 162.70, sing 1.2967, HKD 7.8439, INR 95.24, China 6.7939,  peso  17.52, BRL 5.1617, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 101.51, Oil $69.02, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $59.04, Platinum $1,570.00, Palladium $1,214.00, Copper $6.19, and Gold… $4,033

That’s it for today… Well, I told my oncologist that I had been waking up in the middle of the night with stomach problems… She offered some thoughts that could work, I slept right through to this morning! YAHOO!  We’ll have to see how tonight goes… Getting a full night of sleep is important, and I want to experience it more! Well, I’m into the 4^th of July… I really want to celebrate it the way I used to before Cancer… But, I know that my body won’t deal with that, so I’ll just have to watch it on TV!  Brewer & Shipley take us to the finish line today with their classic rock song: One Toke Over….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Some sense has come to the dollar bugs…
• Gold/Silver have a good end of the week…

Good  Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  One of my fave singers, David Clayton Thomas of Blood Sweat & Teats passed away last Thursday… So, sad, to think about how many of my younger faves are now reaching old age and dying… UGH!  Al Wilson greets me this morning with his song: Show And Tell… 

The dollar was sold going into the weekend, and the BBDXY finished the week at 1,223… It wasn’t down by a lot, but down nonetheless… A negative Durable Goods Orders (-4.50%) got the dollar bugs worried, and that led to some selling… The euro tried the dickens to get back to the 1.14 figure, but petered out at the end, and finished the week at 1.1384… 

Gold finished the week on a good note… Yes, I did say good note. I had to make sure you read that right, given all the previous days when I had to report Gold down…  Gold finished the week $4,088 and Silver came in at $59.05…  The two metals tried to finish higher on the day, but the SPTs were there to make certain that they didn’t…  So, who knows where the two may have ended the week?

The price of Oil finished the week with a $69 handle…  There were more reports from the Strait of Hormuz pointing the finger of blame on the other side for breaking the Peace Agreement…  You started it, no, you started it, kind of stuff, like children in a playground… At this point, what does it matter? The Peace Agreement was broken, and it won’t be the last time either…  So, in my mind, until the Strait is open and ships can travel back and forth through it, the war is still going on… I’m just saying…

And the 10-year Treasury finished the week with a 4.37% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, the weak selling in the dollar continued throughout the night, so we start this day/week with the BBDXY at 1,222…  But what the SPTs missed on Friday, they made up for overnight, and Gold is down $47 to start our day/week, and Silver is down 77-cents… So much for a recovery for the two… Copper is $6.18 and far from its recent levels… And Platinum and Palladium are way down from where they were. So, it’s not just Gold/Silver that the SPTs have been putting through their wash, rinse, repeat cycle… 

The euro was able to climb back to the 1.14 handle overnight, so it’s been awoken! 

The price of Oil remained with a $69 handle overnight, and the 10-year remained trading with a 4.37% yield…  Not much happened overnight for these two…  Speaking of Oil, I stopped to get gas yesterday and paid $4.20 per gallon, and that’s down from the $5 I paid about 3 weeks ago… So, everyone can begin to calm down about the price of Gas… 

That is, as long as the missiles and drones remain in their bunkers over in Iran… 

I read on Zerohedge.com over the week that there’s a ton of speculation out there regarding a surprise rate cut before the mid-term elections… Now, they didn’t have to spell out the reason for this potential rate cut, did they?  We all know what it’s expected to do, now don’t we?

I also read on that the U of Michigan’s consumer confidence which had hit decades lows in its first run, but in the second run the Consumer Confidence rebounded a bit, but still remained below the level it was at before the Iran War, and way below where it was a year ago… 

I normally don’t get too involved with the Consumer Confidence reports because they really are centered on the performance of the Stock Market…  And because…. They’ve never contacted me and asked me for my opinion…. But this one had fallen so low, that I mentioned it for one of the reasons the dollar was getting sold at the time.  So, a follow-up was warranted… 

You know… That Big Al Greenspan died last week…  He was the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel’s Chairman for a long time 1987 to 2006…  He was around for Black Monday in stocks October 1987, and he was around for the dot.com bust, and he was just out the door for the Financial Depression that began In 2007.. 

I’ve never thought much of Big Al Greenspan, especially since his lowering interest rates during the dot.com bust was a good move, but then kept them really low, which they were when he left… The low rates generated the mortgage meltdown… But he wasn’t around to take the blame…  I’m just saying…

OK, enough on Big Al…  How about that USMNT? I didn’t like that they lost an inconsequential game but still won their division… They will play on Wednesday in the knockout round… If you lose here, you go home… So come on U.S.!

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the aforementioned Durable Goods for May that were a negative -4.5%…  That’s HUGE folks! And the Fed’s PCE came in for May at +3.4% annualized…  If the Fed Heads needed assurance that inflation was high, they just got it!  The Data Cupboard is empty today, and really doesn’t have anything for us until Wed… The Jobs Jamboree will be held on Thursday this week, since the 4^th of July is Saturday, the propeller heads don’t want to have to work on Friday! 

To recap… The dollar saw a bit of selling after a rotten Durable Goods Orders for May printed and finished the week with the BBDXY at 1,223. Gold & Silver were bought, and the buying was more than the STPs wanted to make a point of, so the acquiesced but made sure Gold/Silver didn’t get too carried away…. Maybe the low has been put in… only The Shadow Knows!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this last week, and wanted to include it for sure today… This is about the reserves that each country has and you’ll be surprised to see that the U.S. is on 13^th on the list and you can find it here: Ranked: Countries with the Largest Currency Reserves

Or, here’s your snippet: “One clear pattern stands out in the rankings: Asia dominates.

Seven of the world’s 10 largest reserve holders are located in the region, together accounting for roughly two-thirds of global foreign exchange reserves. This concentration reflects decades of export-led growth, persistent trade surpluses, and a policy focus on maintaining large financial buffers.

Why the U.S. Ranks So Low

One of the most surprising aspects of the rankings is the relatively low position of the United States. Although it remains the world’s largest economy, the U.S. holds far fewer foreign exchange reserves than many Asian economies and ranks only 13th globally.

The explanation lies in the unique role of the U.S. dollar. Because the dollar serves as the world’s primary reserve currency and dominates global trade, the United States generally does not need to accumulate large quantities of foreign currencies.

Countries around the world demand dollars for trade, investment, and central bank reserves, allowing the U.S. to settle obligations in its own currency.

As a result, U.S. policymakers allow the dollar to float freely rather than actively managing its exchange rate through large-scale reserve interventions. This contrasts with many export-oriented economies that maintain substantial reserve stockpiles to support financial stability and manage currency fluctuations.

Why Countries Build Massive Currency Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves act as a country’s emergency fund. Central banks can use them to stabilize currencies during market turmoil, pay for essential imports, service foreign debt, or reassure investors during periods of capital flight.

The larger the reserve buffer, the greater a country’s ability to respond to external economic shocks without relying on foreign assistance.

The importance of reserve accumulation became especially clear after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Many Asian economies experienced severe currency collapses and were forced to seek external assistance. In the years that followed, governments across the region adopted a strategy of building substantial reserve buffers as a form of economic self-insurance.

What Large Reserves Mean for the Global Economy

Large reserve holdings can provide important benefits. Countries with substantial reserves are often better positioned to weather external shocks and maintain investor confidence during periods of market stress.

However, reserves also come with costs. Funds invested in reserve assets are typically held in low-yield government securities rather than being deployed elsewhere in the economy. Policymakers must therefore balance the security provided by reserves against the opportunity cost of holding them.

The rankings illustrate how global financial influence extends beyond the size of an economy alone. While the U.S. remains central to the international monetary system because of the dollar’s dominant role, Asia’s massive reserve holdings underscore the region’s importance in global trade, manufacturing, and cross-border capital flows.”

Chuck Again… I know, it’s a long one today.. I couldn’t figure out what part I wanted to cut from the Snippet, so I just included it all… 

Market Prices 6/29/2026: American Style: A$ .6899, kiwi .5653, C$ .7038. Euro 1.1400, sterling 1.3228, Swiss $1.2328, European Style: rand 16.4158, krone 9.9356, SEK 9.7274, forint 310.79, zloty 3.7611, koruna 21.2769, RUB 77.66, yen 161.85, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.8421, INR 94.54, China 6.7947, peso 17.47, BRL 5.1720, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 101.26, Oil $69.80, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $58.28, Platinum $1,600.00, Palladium $1,240.00, Copper $6.18, and Gold… $4,041

That’s it for today… No Pfennig tomorrow, it’s time to see the oncologist… Yesterday was my youngest son’s birthday… Alex who turned 30… yes, he’s the same Alex that used to sit on my lap and help me write the Pfennig… Yes, he’s that old!  Yesterday was the anniversary of my darling daughter, Dawn and her hubby Jerry…  So, congrats to them, and Big Happy Birthday yell to Alex! Alex’s wife, Grace is ready to have their first baby, I thought it would come on his birthday, but I guess not… Herb Albert and his Tiajuana Brass take us to the finish line today with their song: This Guy’s In Love…  I take some flak for having that song on my iPod, but hey! I’ve always loved this song! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to be very strong
• The U.S. wants to start a SWF, Wait, What?

Good Day… and a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, I didn’t make the mistake of not jotting down notes again yesterday.. Thank goodness… My beloved Cardinals got whacked last night VS the snakes… Our “supposed #1 pitcher got shelled for the 2^nd game in a row for him… UGH@ Blood Sweat & Tears greets me this morning with their song: Spinning Wheel… 

Well, I starting to sound like a broken record with saying the dollar got bought yesterday, but not wildly the previous night, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,226…   It’s been since early in 2025 that the dollar was this strong… And since that time, it’s been all downhill for the dollar as it had entered a weak trend… and then it would rebound a bit but always returned to the underlying weak trend…  

So, we’ll have to wait-n-see how long this strong rally lasts… But for now, the dollar bugs have the con…  And that goes a lot into why the metals are being clubbed like Seal… (no animals were hurt here, it’s just a saying!)

When the dollar was getting sold each day, investors bought Gold/Silver because the fear of a dollar collapse was growing…  So, now these same investors join with the SPTs and are selling the metals… Gold was down $100 yesterday and closed at $4,000… Silver was down $3.91 and closed at $57.55…  

The price of Oil continued its ride on the slippery slope and ended the day trading in the $59 handle… What did these two metals do to get people to panic and sell? I don’t get it…  Buy it and forget it… I don’t know how many times I’ll have to say that, but I guess it won’t be the last!

The 10-year Treasury saw a ton of selling yesterday, and from the looks of the drop in the yield, it was the Fed Heads doing their yield control in a big way… The 10-year ended yesterday with a 4.40% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY starts today at 1,225… There were no new developments in Iran or the Strait of Hormuz overnight, so we’re kind of in a holding pattern… Like when an airplane has to go into a holding pattern because airport is too busy… The Price of Gold is up $14 to start our day, and Silver is up 80-cents, but Silver is still below $60…  

The price of Oil starts today with a $69 handle… and the 10-year Treasury is seeing more yield control as its yield has slid to 4.37%  

My friend,  and Editor of the 5 Bullets newsletter, David Gonigam, yesterday was talking about Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) that the POTUS keeps bringing up and he pointed out: “As perhaps you’ve noticed from the preceding examples, governments typically create a SWF when they have a generous surplus of revenue.

As you’re likely aware, the U.S. government does not have a surplus.”

Chuck again… No, and neither do the AI firms… Most AI firms still do not turn out a profit… So, there’s that… 

Speaking of a SWF, Norway is the poster child for SWF’s as their SWF is $2.1 Trillion… A few years ago, I reported that every Norwegian child born was born a Millionaire…  And this alone should be every reason in the world to buy and own Norwegian krone…  The krone has long been held hostage by the euro and the price of Oil…  So, now that both the euro and price of Oil are taking a ride on the slippery slope, the krone is getting all caught up in that Kaos! 

You know that that the fighting has died down in Iran…  And right now, with the price of Oil sliding daily, and a somewhat kind of Peace agreement that the pressure on Americans has backed off, but there’s still pressure…  But, if anything, this time and place has at least made American cut back their spending… On one hand that’s good for American’s balance sheet, and on the other hand its bad for the country’s economic growth…  

I more concerned with Americans’ balance sheet…  The middle class has been beaten about and it looked like they were going down for the count…  And just because things ease up doesn’t mean you should go out and spend again like its 1999…   I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard had already printed some economic reports this morning, so let’s go through them… First up was Personal Spending and Income, which were both up .7%… I think that the spending part of the data is all about higher prices that people are paying, not really an uptick of people going out and spending…  Next up was the Durable Goods Orders and they printed a negative -4.25% in May… That was a real shocker to the markets and the dollar reacted negatively to it.  Next up was the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) this used to be the Fed’s preferred inflation calc… But with Warsh telling us that we’ve been doing it all wrong, this kind of takes a back seat, anyway, PCE was up 3.4% in May….and then of course the usual fare on a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215,000… 

To recap… The dollar bugs have the con, and there’s nothing we can do about other than buying more currencies, and metals at cheaper prices. It’s either that or battening down the hatches… Chuck talks about SWFs and tries to get his mind off all of this Kaos!

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I mentioned AI above, this morning, and so this is a an article about workers worried about their jobs, and it can be found here: Americans are as worried as ever about layoffs and losing their jobs. Why so much angst? – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “The unemployment rate is remarkably low and layoffs are also sparse, but Americans are as worried as ever about losing their jobs. What’s going on?

The threat of artificial intelligence suddenly rendering jobs obsolete has exploded as the main worry among job holders, new research from the job-search site Glassdoor shows.

‘Workers are concerned by leaders demanding workers use AI while simultaneously touting AI as a reason for layoffs and reduced hiring.’

— Glassdoor

It’s not just AI, though.

The U.S. is experiencing one of the slowest rates of hiring in history, especially during a period of economic expansion. High tariffs, rising inflation and the war with Iran have pushed companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Even if layoffs are low, the people who do lose their jobs have a much harder time finding a new one. Recent college graduates are also struggling to gain a foothold in the workplace.

What’s more, a dearth of available jobs has made people more willing to take jobs they would have turned down in the past. The rate of job offers refused has fallen sharply over the past year, per Glassdoor’s research.

“Given this slow job market, any movement — a callback, an interview and certainly an offer — is precious for job seekers,” Glassdoor said.

The angst is evident in large and long-running polls of consumers. The U.S. consumer-sentiment survey fell in May to a record low, while the consumer-confidence index was also near a postpandemic low.”

Chuck again… So, everything in labor is not peaches and cream… Boy, am I glad I no longer have to look for a job!

Market Prices 6/25/2026: American Style: A$ .6923, kiwi .5649, C$ .7030, euro 1.1362, sterling 1.3283, Swiss $1.2325, European Style: rand 16.4727, krone 9.8738, SEK 9.7361, forint 312.92, zloty 3.1292, koruna 21.3420, RUB 75.40, yen 161.78, BRL 5.2943, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 101.57,    Oil $69.85, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $58.38, Platinum $1,600.00, Palladium $1,212.00, Copper $6.09 and Gold… $4014

That’s it for today… I do believe that my beloved Cardinals are in trouble, given their upcoming schedule… When we get to the middle of July, I could be singing the blues… I sure hope not… But I’m beginning to see what I witnessed in Jupiter this spring… This week has gone by sssssllllloooowwww… I’m not one to want time to fly by, but I am one to want to enjoy the time I have left!  Tyrone Davis takes us to the finish line today with his song: Can I Change My Mind?  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar bugs won’t stop!
• Buying Opportunity?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I normally read and make notes all day about the goings on in the markets, so that I don’t have to start at zero the next day… But yesterday, I failed to make any notes, so I’m at zero today… UGH! My beloved Cardinals failed in their 9^th inning rally last night and lost to the snakes… Queen greets me this morning with their song: I Want It All

That song plays well with the SPTs right now, as they have taken Gold / Silver to new lows, and the attack is relentless…  The dollar too is making highs and in the RSI it is so overbought… But that’s not stopped the dollar bugs or even giving them caution…  The BBDXY is up 8 index points from Monday’s close…   The economy is still mixed in growth, but the new mantra is that the FOMC will hike rates before year-end, maybe even 2 times! 

But the war continues with words shouted across the fence, with one side blaming the other, and vice-versa… So, the dollar bugs just keep buying dollars and all this dollar strength is being used by the SPTs to keep the pressure on the metals . Gold was down $93 yesterday, to close at $4,100… And Silver was down $3.75 to close at $61.46…  

The price of Oil continued its ride on the slippery slope, and ended the day yesterday at $71.71… The 10-year is selling some yield control by the Fed Heads and it’s offsetting the selling… The yield yesterday was 4.48%

In the overnight markets… As Ed Steer says, the Wash, rinse, and repeat cycle continued and this morning Silver has fallen below $60, down $1.62, and Gold is down $66… Shoot Rudy, even Copper is getting sold and is $6.12 this morning… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $71 handle overnight and the 10-year also remained in its same clothes at 4.48%

I said last week that I thought that the low for the metals was nearing, and then we had a couple of days of healing, only to see the SPTs return with a vengeance…  So, I’m not going out on that limb again…  We’ll know when the low was put in after it happens, and not before… 

I’ve been around currencies since 1992, and in that time I don’t recall ever seeing a sudden rise in the dollar in such a short time… Currency moves historically have been slow moving but this has been totally different… The thing that’s knawing away at the back of my brain is that this scenario is built like a house of cards…  But I guess we’ll have to play it out to see if my inkling is correct. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today finally has something for us to view with May Leading Indicators… I think I may have jumped the gun yesterday and said they would print then… UGH!  Tomorrow, we’ll see a ton of economic data starting with Consumer Spending and Income… 

To recap… The dollar is kicking tail and taking names later and it’s not stopping! The dollar is way past “overbought” on the RSI, but that’s not stopping the dollar bugs… Gold/Silver are being left for dead… That’s a sign that it’s a buying opportunity to me… 

For What It’s Worth… I know, the selling in the metals is really giving me rash, and it seems like an unlikely time to tell people that this is a buying opportunity, but that’s what I’m doing… This article is about just that and it can be found here: Gold’s pullback creates attractive entry as de-dollarization turns structural – KMLM’s Prior | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold’s recent correction has created an attractive entry point for investors, even as short-term headwinds continue to pressure prices, according to one portfolio manager.

In an interview with Kitco News, Jerry Prior, chief operating officer and senior portfolio manager at the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), said that the factors driving gold’s long-term bull market remain firmly intact, particularly the growing global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve asset.

“I think, given the repricing of gold here, it’s probably a pretty good entry point,” Prior said in an interview with Kitco News. “There’s a long-term de-dollarization theme that is structural, and I think it will be persistent.”

Gold has faced significant selling pressure in recent weeks as traders responded to a more hawkish policy stance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and easing concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict. Prior noted that speculative investors, sovereign buyers, and systematic trend-following funds all contributed to the recent decline. He added that, given the extreme shift in speculative positioning, much of the downside has already been priced into the market.

“Maybe prices go below $4,000 an ounce, but once the oil starts flowing again, we’re going to see some sovereign buying of gold as central banks rebuild their reserves,” he said.”

Chuck Again… This guy didn’t make a clear and concise description of why this is a good buying opportunity, but I’ll give him a B- 

Market Prices 6/24/2026: American Style: A$.6895, kiwi .5646, C$ .7030, euro 1.1345, sterling 1.3166, Swiss $1.2310, European Style: rand 16.6153, krone 9.8320, SEK 9.7764, forint 314.23, zloty 3.7798, koruna 21.3760, RUB 74.94, yen 161.68, sing 1.2984, HKD 7.8407, INR 94.66, China 6.8108,   peso 17.61, BRL 5.1810, BBDXY 1,226, Dollar Index 101.64, Oil $71.71, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $59.84, Platinum $1,623.00, Palladium $1,218.00, Copper $6.12, and Gold… $4,034

That’s if for today… my good friend, Rick B. Just texted me about doing a ROMEO lunch tomorrow, so I’m looking forward to that… For decades, it seems, the Cardinals have had problems with crafty lefthanders, and last night was no exception… UGH! And our Bullpen was not good last night, so the combination led to a loss… a good friend of mine, Craig, told me about a book that mentions the Pfennig… The Almighty Dollar…  I’ve got to read it now, when I’m finished with the Hitchhiker… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Driftwood… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar goes on a rampage overnight
• Is Gold just resting before getting in the race again?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It was a dreary day here, I hope the sun was shining where you were…  I didn’t get outside yesterday, so I was feeling kind of down… My kids bought me a 1-year membership to: My Stories… And there I can write my life history and put it in a book for my kids to have after I’m gone…  Maybe they’ll be interested in it, or maybe they won’t! Very interesting… Eric Clapton greets me this morning with a song that when I was in the band, we used to open up with: Blues Power… 

Well, the dollar continued to get bought yesterday and moved above the 1,217 figure on the day… I just don’t get why the dollar bugs have the con right now… The U.S. is in a war, and their deficit spending has only ratcheted up during this time… And with that we have the need to finance the deficit spending, and countries are backing away from the Treasury window…  But I guess they’ll stick with the dollar until the floor drops out beneath them…  So, we’ll have to deal with this dollar strength for a bit time more… 

Gold found a way to gain yesterday, but I doubt that it will last, the SPTs must have been asleep at the wheel again… Gold gained $39 to close at $4,193, and Silver got sold, losing 17-cents to close at $65.21 . There’s nothing I can do to stop all this selling, so I’ll just have to live with it… 

The price of Oil slipped again yesterday and ended the day trading with a $74 handle… The bond boys are showing the Fed Heads who’s in charge. It’s been a month of Sundays since the bond boys stiffed their neck and showed that they were in charge… The 10-year Treasury’s yield rose to 4.51% to end yesterday…

In the overnight markets last night… All hell has been released! The dollar is soaring and Gold/Silver is being left for dead… The BBDXY is 1,222 up 4 index points from yesterday’s close, and doesn’t look like its going to stop at any time in the near future… 

Gold is down $73 to start our day today… See? I told you above that Gold’s good fortune yesterday wouldn’t last… I hate when I’m right about Gold is going down…  Silver is down over $3 to start our day, and this is getting serious folks… The SPTs are serious about taking these metals lower and no one is stopping them! 

The price of Oil dropped again overnight and trades this morning with a $73 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury must have triggered the Fed Heads to implement their yield control as the bond was bought overnight and starts today with a 4.49% yield. 

Why, oh why, do I get so down whenever the sun doesn’t shine and then to make matters worse, the weatherman is calling for rain this week… UGH! 

I was reading my favorite read, Grant Willams, and he stated something in his TTMGH letter that made me think… I had thought that that very little had happened in the past 8 years, but he reminded that they had been a ton of stuff happen… I’ll let him list them for you:

“Cry Wolf…Again

Eight years later, the argument feels less theoretical. Since Cry Wolf, we’ve had the Covid crash, trillions in new money creation, the worst bond-market drawdown in recorded history, the return of bond vigilantes, the Truss Moment, the freezing of Russia’s reserves, the rise of BRICS alternatives, record central-bank gold buying and a growing crack in the old reflex that, in moments of crisis, investors automatically flee to dollars and Treasuries. Meanwhile, US debt service now exceeds defense spending, the dollar’s reserve share continues to erode, and gold is quietly reclaiming its place at the top of the monetary food chain.”

Whew! That wore me out just reading them all! HA!  One of these days, I’ll get to meet Grant in person, and I’ll be thrilled! Those are all things I wrote about in the past… Since they all happened spread out and not together, I just didn’t think there was that much! But I was wrong about that!

The dollar has been so strong that even the Chinese renminbi has stumbled. The renminbi had been allowed to gain VS the dollar and got as high at 6.75… But this dollar strength has pushed back the renminbi to a 6.78 figure… (remember this currency is a European priced Currency so as the number goes higher, it’s losing ground to the dollar)

Even a rate hike by The European Central Bank last week hasn’t helped the euro from warding off the dollar bugs… Or, maybe it has, and the euro would be much lower without the rate hike… Either way, the euro is down right now… 

And my favorites down under, the A$ and kiwi had been keeping up with the Joneses (the dollar) but that all changed overnight, and the two antipodean currencies are now just like the rest of them, down significantly VS the dollar… UGH! 

Even the Swiss franc is seeing some weakness… Ever since the first missile was fired toward Iran, the Swiss franc has been strong… it’s still strong per se, but not as strong…  And this is very telling… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have anything for us today…. Tomorrow we’ll see the color of May Leading Economic Indicators, which have been negative for so long now that I expect the data to be negative again!

To recap… The dollar buying continues.. UGH!  And overnight, the buying of the dollar got serious! Gold / Silver are being left for dead, and Chuck didn’t realize that many events had taken place in the last 8 years.. 

For What It’s Worth…  when large casino banks make calls on assets I cringe, for most of the time they are wrong… But I tell you about them anyway, because maybe, just maybe they’ll be right… This is about a call from BOA that is obviously wrong, but they admit it, and state that the fundamentals are all in place. The article can be found here: Bank of America says gold can still hit $6,000, just not anytime soon | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve’s new tightening bias has created significant hurdles for the gold market, forcing one bank to curb its bullish enthusiasm for the time being.

When gold started its unprecedented rally last year, Bank of America was one of the most bullish voices in the market. In January, the bank said it expected gold prices to hit $6,000 an ounce by the spring. However, the significant correction over the last few months has prompted the bank’s metals research team, led by Michael Widmer, to revise its short-term outlook.

“Hitting our $6,000/oz target looks unlikely for now. But the ongoing U.S. macro combination of high deficits, lack of fiscal consolidation and resulting funding needs — the premise behind our original bullish gold call — suggests there is still fuel in the tank for gold to rally again over the longer term,” the bank said in its latest precious metals report.

Widmer explained that shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy remain the biggest obstacle for gold in the near term. At the start of the year, markets were expecting the U.S. central bank to cut rates this year; however, the war in Iran, which has created a global energy crisis, has led to a dramatic increase in inflation pressures. As a result, markets have started to aggressively price in rate hikes before the end of the year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a more than 70% chance of a rate hike by September.”

Chuck again… So, if you are on the edge, thinking that Gold has topped out, maybe this article will help change your mind!  Gold is to hold, not sell like a commodity unless there’s a dire need…  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 6/23/26: American Style: A$ .6942, kiwi .5782, C$ .7048, euro 1.1393, sterling 1.3214, Swiss $1.2358, European Style: rand 16.4801, krone 9.7660, SEK 9.7031, forint 311.23, zloty 3.7593, koruna 21.2442, RUB 74.57, yen 161.59, sing 1.2958, HKD 7.8400, INR 94.73, China 6.7857,  peso 17/48. BRL 5.1458, BBDXY 1222, Dollar Index 101.27, Oil $73.84, 10-year 4.49%, Silver $62.17, Platinum $1,638.00, Palladium $1,259.00, Copper $6.22, and Gold… $4,120

That’s it for today… Yesterday I thought I was doing some wishful thinking saying that all 4 of my grandkids were here… I was wrong as there were only 2 that were here… I must have thought all 4 of them were here! UGH! I’m currently reading: A Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy… It’s a good think that I’m older because this book is weird….. But I like it! My beloved Cardinals came home and beat the snakes last night in a tight game 3-2… Quicksilver Messenger Service takes us to the finish line today with their song: What About Me?

Chuck Butler