Author: admin

• The dollar continues to rally
• Inflation is sticky and will reamin despite the rate hike

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals got shutout last night in Pittsburgh with only 1 hit in the game… That’s embarrassing to me, but then I’ve never faced a pitcher that threw 99… The staples in my scalp, came out with no soreness or problem yesterday, so that Cancer is now gone! I still have a lesion on the right mandible, (Jaw) and it rears its ugly head every now and then, so that’s why I take a cancer treatment once a month… I know I told you I would not be able to write the Pfennig today, but times change, and so do appointments…. The Great Wilson Pickett greets me this morning with his 60’s song: 634-5789… 

OK, so on Monday I made it sound like Gold/Silver were going to rally every day now that the FOMC had raised interest rates.. But the SPT’s were out and about, and made sure that the two metals were kept in check, so that broke the consecutive days of rally… UGH! But yesterday, Gold gained $51 and Silver gained over $2 on the day, so like I’ve always said… The SPTs may bring Gold/Silver down, but eventually the two metals will gain to a price that’s above where they were before the selling short began…. 

The dollar gained a couple index points in the BBDXY yesterday and finally got off their duffs at 1,205… The price of Oil has receded quite a bit this last week and yesterday it closed at $90… This drop in the price of Oil has really helped the dollar folks… For you see, with the Price dropping, the pressure it put on rising inflation has abated… For now, that is… Just wait until the missiles start flying again both ways, and we’ll see the price of Oil soar again…  That’s my Pfennig for you today…

Oh, and it may turn around before then, as the closure of Hormuz and now Bab el-Mandab by the Houthis, plus the damage inflicted on the Saudis’ East-West pipeline to Yanbu is about to hit global energy markets hard… Good thing, I filled my gas tank today ahead of the turnaround… With the little driving I do these days, that should last me for some time… 

But not for the Truckers who burn Diesel fuel, And What I saw yesterday was $6.50 a gal for diesel… I can’t even imagine what it costs to fill a tank of diesel fuel in a semi… 

I tell you this because Truckers bring us the goods we need, food especially, and if the cost to bring the food to us goes up, then the cost of the food will go up too… And think of the farmers… Aye, Aye, Aye… They are in a bind, and the cost of food is going to go sky high…  So much for a rate hike taking care of Inflation, eh?

The scarcity of Copper is beginning to show up again, and so the price of Copper is rallying… here’s a piece from Zerohedge.com that talks about that… “Copper has almost retraced the selloff sparked earlier this month, following Reuters’ report that the White House’s “copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns.” Prices are back near record highs in London as Bloomberg reports tightening supplies in China’s physical market, reinforcing scarcity concerns.

The driver, according to the outlet, is new Shanghai Metals Market data showing shrinking Chinese inventories. Those inventories fell to 43,900 tons, the lowest since 2023.”

Chuck Again, well at least there’s something good to talk about today… not the scarcity of Copper, but instead the price of Copper reacting according to the supply and demand that’s in place… 

The 10-year recovered some of the yield it lost on Monday, and closed yesterday with a 4.97% yield… The bond boys must think that with the price of Oil abating, that the FOMC won’t get back to hiking rates any time soon, so they will do the heavy lifting and raise yields any way… 

In the overnight markets last night… All hell has been released… The BBDXY is up 3 index points to 1,208, and Gold/ Silver has been taken to the woodshed… The price of Oil slid further downward to an $89 handle, and that my friend is the main reason that the dollar is rallying… The other reason is the rate hike expectations… But I have to stop there, because with the price of Oil sliding the inflation expectations are dwindling… I’m just saying… 

The 10-year Treasury at least is a bit saner this morning, with its yield staying at 4.97% overnight.. No Fed Head buyIng going on right now, so the coast is clear for the bond boys to take the yield higher… 

Back when inflation started to really begin to be seen, I told you all that “inflation was sticky”… And it’s proven to be just that! I’m just saying…

The currencies are going back to their sick beds with the dollar rallying so much lately… The PPT really save the dollar’s bacon this time, and sent it on its way to higher levels… The euro is seeing most of the downward movement in the currencies… Even the Euro Wanna Bes, have seen better days… The Chinese renminbi is about the only currency that’s rallying VS the dollar these days… The Petrol currencies have been sent back to their sick beds once again… 

The Underlying weak trend with the dollar has shown that it’s not a ONE-WAY Street for weakness… But I do believe the underlying weak dollar trend is still in place… So, don’t panic, and reverse your diversification… at least for now… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is back on board today, but the data it has is 2^nd Tier and not even worth mentioning… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard is the same and we won’t care about any data that gets printed until Friday, when Durable Goods Orders will print… It’s been a real “nothing burger” this week… Oh, there are lots of Fed Heads speakers out and about, but who cares about their lies?

To recap… The dollar continues to rally after stalling out for a day… it’s back to rallying, and the price of Oil dropping is the catalyst behind this rally… Chuck points the reason above, be sure you go back and read it… Inflation is sticky, and is proving Chuck correct… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I said above how Gold can still rally in the face of higher rates… And this article talks about just that and it can be found here: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-22/etf-flows-show-gold-price-decoupled-real-yields-fiscal-concerns-now-drive

Or, here’s your snippet: “– Gold-backed ETF holdings continue to rise even as 10-year real yields hit 20-year highs, showing that fiscal concerns are changing the yield–gold relationship, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

“US 10-year real yields hit their highest level in more than 20 years on Friday at 2.63%, a 76-basis point increase since the start of the year, while total gold-backed ETF holdings continued to recover following a drop in H1 2026,” Hansen wrote in his latest gold analysis. “The divergence highlights an increasingly notable disconnect between gold demand and what historically has been a strong inverse relationship with real yields.”

The real yield is the return an investor earns on a bond after accounting for inflation. “Historically, it has been regarded as key to determining the direction of gold, as the yellow metal and other hard assets such as silver and platinum do not pay interest or dividends, so higher real yields can make bonds more attractive relative to holding gold,” he said. “When real yields rise, gold has traditionally faced pressure.”

Hansen noted that when central banks aggressively raised interest rates back in 2022–23 and real yields surged, investors responded by reducing their exposure to gold by exiting ETFs. “Gold prices, however, remained remarkably resilient during that period, supported by strong central-bank buying that helped offset ETF investor selling,” he said. “In other words, the gold price decoupled from real yields, while ETF holdings did not.”

Chuck Again… I love it when a plan comes together! (Hannibal Smith) Do you recall the A-Team? Back in the day when it was on the air, it came on before Monday Night Football, so that made me watch it!

Market Price 9/23/2026: American Style: A$ .7076, kiwi .5700, C$ .7099, euro 1.1416, sterling 1.3291, Swiss $1.2163, European Style: rand 16.3012, krone 9.4601, SEK 9.8672, forint 318.78, zloty 3.8296, koruna 21.3644,   RUB 84.27, yen 157.82, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8470, INR 95.74, China 6.7070, peso 17.39, BRL 5.0996, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 100.82, Oil $89.82, 10-year 4.97%, Silver $65.34, Platinum $ 1,793.00, Palladium $1,299.00, Copper $6.81, and Gold… $4,316

That’s it for today… above I talked about the lesion on my right mandible… Do you remember when I was going to have my right jaw removed? It would cause many problems, most of them were that I wouldn’t be able to eat solid food again… Then two days before the jaw surgery, I had to go the hospital for cellulitis in my legs… So, no surgery while I had an infection…  In the meantime, my wife got me an appointment at M.D. Anderson in Houston, and the doctor there said, ” do not have that surgery”, and gave me a chemo that shrunk the tumor and the rest is history… I call this divine intervention… I truly believe it…  The late Great Leon Russell takes us to the finish line today with his song: Back To The Island… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the euro sees selling
• Whoopeedo, the Fed Hiked rates…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals last home stand of the regular season wasn’t good… But, since they’ve been eliminated from the Playoffs, the team seems to be playing in a fog… UGH! Only 6 more games left for them to play and then the bitter end will come to another year of not making the playoffs… This missing the playoffs is from a team that used to be in the playoffs quite often, almost every year! Obviously, not the same players, but still… The band, Sweet, greets me this morning with their song: Love Is Like Oxygen… 

Well, the mini rally that started about 10 days ago, has become a Bonafide dollar rally now… The BBDXY ended last week at 1,203… That’s 13 index points higher than it was wen what I thought was a mini rally began… So, now we have to deal with that… At first, it was the PPT buying dollars since no one else was… But now, things have changed…

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The FOMC did hike rates on the 16th, by 25 Basis Points and I’m amazed that the FOMC things that this rate hike will do the heavy lifting of lowering inflation. The FOMC did say that they would look to raising them one more time this year (probably 12/9)… And still, I doubt seriously that two rate hikes will lower inflation.. 

Gold/Silver has done nothing but rally since the Rate hike was announced… How many times did I tell you in the Pfennig that Gold /Silver could rise in price even with higher interest rates?  Well, they’re proving my statement… Gold ended the week at $4,371, and Silver ended the week at $63.38… Both metals were higher than their closing prices during the day Friday, but the SPTs were there to keep Gold from going over $4,400 and Silver above $65…  The wolf is always at the door, folks… Even when it appears that Gold/ Silver are rallying, they are being kept in check…

The bond boys were at first satisfied with the rate hike, and the 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.93%, but… eventually they came to the realization that inflation isn’t going to be brought lower, and they immediately began to mark up the yield, and it closed Friday at 4.99%

The price of Oil has really been brought down since the rate hike… Oil ended the week at $100.30

In the overnight markets last night… There was no movement in the dollar as it starts the day/week at 1,203… Gold is giving back some of its recent gains and is down $12 to start the day. Silver is on the plus side this morning, up 20 cents… 

The price of Oil has slipped more and starts the day/ week at $97… I don’t now why this price has slipped so much as the Strait of Hormuz is still bottled up… But, it is what it is… so, we’ll go with that!

And the 10-year Treasury is seeing some Fed Head buying and thus the yield on the bond has slipped to 4.95% to start our day/ week. 

Well, since I’ve been following this, I thought that I would write some more… It came to my attention on Saturday, as I saw around waiting for my beloved Mizzou Tigers’ game to start, that China has unloaded a ton of U.S. Treasuries, once again… The amount totaled $15.4 Billion (no wonder yields are so high again) This represents the lowest amount of Treasuries that the Chinese Gov’t owns since August 2008… And it also represents a gradual lowering of their holdings since 2010… 

But $15.4 Billion is quite the large amount to unload in one month, and do you know what they did with the dollars they received for unloading the Treasuries? The bought physical Gold (and probably some Silver sprinkled in, but The Chinese are really into holding physical Gold…

These are very smart people, as they see the risk in owning Treasuries at this time, and they did something about their risk… They unloaded a big portion of it!

Another thing I’ve been talking about for ages now and used to get in trouble with the marketing people when I would talk about the short selling in the metals, but no longer… Because it is what it is, and they could point at me saying things about short selling would scare people from buying… I said HOGWASH! 

So, each Saturday Ed Steer send out his letter, and in the Saturday letter, he shows a graph of the metals / commodities, that show the number days of production it would take to equal the short contracts in the assets… Some time ago, I wrote that these shorts were going lower, but not any longer… For Silver it would take 104 days of production… for Gold It would take 70 days of production, and a new one to become a real problem for the SPTS is Platinum and it would take 86 days of production… And Copper has its own following and It would take 30 days of production to equal the short contracts…. 

If I were king… I would not allow all this short selling, because the SPTs that participate in the short selling, don’t do it to hedge a position… They do it simply to protect their short sales, and to make a ton of cash for doing this simple trick… 

The Bank of Japan got in the rate hike mood and decided that they too would make an effort to show their citizens that they are serious about fighting inflation, and hike rates 25 Basis Points last Friday…  For a country that held rates below zero for so long, they now have an internal rate of 1.25%… 

I had to laugh when I saw their rate hike… As if, 1.25% will fight anything much less inflation in Japan… 

Oh, and the Japanese yen saw its value VS the dollar shrink… Yen was 155.50 last week before the rate hike, and yen closed on Friday at 156.88… recall that yen is a European Style priced currency, so as the price goes higher it simply means that that the yen is getting weaker… 

A friendly neighborhood Spider reminder that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as I will be getting the staples out of my head wound… It’ll be nice to not have to change the dressing on it every day by myself! 

The euro has fallen below the 1.15 figure this morning, and when I pulled up the currencies I saw that and thought that the BBDXY would be much higher… And it’s not… The Chinese renminbi traded below 6.70 for the first time in a while. So not all’s lost today… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week showed that U.S. Retail Sales grew in the back to school buying by 1.2%…  Then on Friday Industrial Production  was flat as a pancake (Head East) and Capacity Utilization was the same level as the previous month at 76.3%

The Data Cupboard is empty today and tomorrow, and then its filled with non-market moving data until Friday when Durable Goods are printed… 

To recap… The dollar has moved to a Bonafide rally now, who knows why, as our problems remain in place… Gold / Silver have been rallying since the rate hike announcement last week for the U.S. Japan hiked rates too… But they are really far behind the inflation 8-ball… And China unloads tons of Treasuries…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, the Chinese weren’t the only major country with bond news, as the U.S. announced that they will be buying $6 Billion in Treasuries, and that story can be found here; Feds to buy up to $6 billion in Treasury bonds in move to ease borrowing costs – CBS News

Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the agency will buy up to $6 billion in long-term government bonds as part of an effort to curb rising yields and ease borrowing costs.

The Treasury Department vowed last month to “at least” double its bond buybacks to $4 billion to prop up prices. Higher Treasury yields raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and can also weigh on stock prices.

Government Treasury purchases reduce supply, boosting bond prices and reducing yields (Bond yields are inversely related to prices, meaning that as yields rise, bond prices fall.) Rising yields signal that investors are demanding higher returns on Treasurys.

“They are repurchasing bonds that have been around for a while and are a smaller part of the market, but the Treasury thinks this will constrain 20- to 30-year yields from rising and put downward pressure on 10-year yields too,” Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told CBS News.”

Chuck Again…  The games people play now, every night and every day now,  Never meanin’ what they say now, Never sayin’ what they mean… I recall that song by Joe South from when I was a young man and I’m reminded of the song every time the Gov’t announces some plan to lower bond servicing costs… 

Market Prices 9/21/ 2026: American Style: A$ .7130, kiwi .5753, C$ .7138, euro 1.1483, sterling 1.3289, Swiss $1.2172, European Style: rand 16.7594, krone 9.4148, SEK 9.5101, forint 315.02, zloty 3.7909, koruna 21.1969.    RUB 83.44, yen 157.21, sing 1.2751, HKD 7.8453, INR 95.81, China 6.6980, peso 17.19, BRL 5.1421, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 100.77, Oil $97.64, 10-year 4.95%, Silver $66.54, Platinum $1,867.00, Palladium $1,331.00, Copper $6.80, and Gold… $4,367.00

That’s it for today… Well, my time here alone is nearing an end, as Kathy will return on Wednesday… It’s been quiet here this past week, I’ve not gone outside to read for it was 107 one day… But temps are on their way downward, so I’ll be outside this week! My beloved Mizzou Tigers football team won their game on Saturday, it was an ugly win, but a win is a win… Pavlov’s Dog takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Julia… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Chuck has a couple of faux pas yesterday…
• Retail Sales today for back to school buying…

Good Day… And a Wonderul Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals couldn’t stand prosperity with their win Monday night, so they gave up the ship on Tuesday Night, losing to the Giants… UGH Not many games left in the regular season, and the Cardinals can kiss the playoffs goodbye…  I’m all alone for the next week… Poor, poor, pitiful me… HA! Hello, Pizza Man Pizza?  Sugarloaf greets me this morning with their over 6 minutes long song: Green Eyed Lady… 

Well, I apologize for yesterday’s faux pas when I didn’t look at the calendar close enough to see that the rate hike announcement wouldn’t take place until today… Lo and behold, we have another one of those 2-day FOMC meetings, when all the board games get taken out and the Fed Heads sit around and play games for a day, waiting for the actual day they will sit around and discuss rates…. 

So, one more day, just give me one more day until we find out whether the FOMC leaves rates unchanged, or hikes them… And that day is TODAY! I’ve stated that I just don’t see the FOMC delivering a rate hike at this time…. And then when you think about it, the next meeting will be too close to the Mid-term elections, and then that brings us to the 12/9 FOMC meeting as the first time I see the FOMC hiking rates… 

Yes, the Fed Heads cannot appear to be political, but in the end, they are… And the Boss (POTUS) wants lower rates, so the Fed Heads will appease him a bit by not hiking rates at this time…  That’s my Pfennig for you this morning…  I sure hope I’m not wrong here… I would never hear the end of it!

So, the dollar got bought yesterday by 1 index point in the BBDXY and ended the day at 1,198… Gold / Silver tried like the Dickens to find some physical buyers and bid up the two metals, and voila’ they found them! Gold gained $20 on the day to end the day at $4,290, and Silver gained 45-cents to end the day at $63.83… It’s been a long difficult slog for the two metals. Shoot Rudy, even Copper got to rally a bit yesterday, ending the day at $6.46… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $104 handle on the day… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield also remained at 4.99%…

In the overnight markets last night… there was a little wondering about what the FOMC will do, not so much a “we’re all in on a rate cut mood”, and the dollar lost an index point to start today at 1,197… Gold /Silver are taking the side of they are going to rally even if there is a rate hike today.. Gold is up $57 and Silver is up $1.08 to start the day… 

The price of Oil slipped again overnight and starts today with a $103 handle, while the 10-year saw some buying and its yield slipped to 4.98% to start our day… 

Well, like when the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz was in the news every day, and nothing else to talk about remained, now we are onto the FOMC meeting… Yes, the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz is a real problem for the world, remains in the forefront of news…  But now we have the FOMC meeting today… Shoot Rudy, I even received an email from Fisher Investments asking me rate cut, or rate hike?  I deleted it,  for that’s all I need to read is another question about rates hiked or cut… 

I know that’s what you’re saying right now too… C’mon Chuck, talk about something else for we are up to our ears with rate talk… I hear you… 

Remember a couple of months ago when I journaled how there was a group of trades at Deutsche Bank that were shorting the 10-year Treasury…  at the time, I didn’t think that was such a good idea, but as time has gone on, I sit here and wonder if they remain shorting the 10-year, for if they are, then they are rolling in dough right now… The 10-year at the turn of the year was 4.38% and even then, they had already booked gains, and the yield began to see the yield grow, grow, grow…  So, kudos to them for having the foresight to act… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield hasn’t touched 5% since April 1999…  And then the Covid disaster hit the U.S. and rate cuts were the song of the day, until September 2021… And then the bond boys saw the writing on the wall with the U.S.’s finances, and began to Sell (Mark up) the 10-year… And here we are now… at 5%!

And I’ve told you previously at least a few times, that the 10-year’s yield is used to price many things… But Mortgages are the key… 

I told you the other day that Diesel fuel had climbed to $7.00, but I had been a Sooner with that because Diesel fuel just reached $6.00 So, another faux pas on my part… But it’ll get there, in my humble opinion… 

Prices paid for things other than laptops and smart Tvs  have gone much higher… But you have to think about this for a moment…. it’s time that we quit blaming Companies for gouging us… the real reason that prices continue to rise is all the funny money out there… Ever since we as a country disconnected Gold from the backing of the dollar in August 1971 (And it was supposed to be a “Temporary thing”) there’s nothing to keep prices in check… Inflation becomes a government policy for U.S. consumers to have to deal with… the only answer is to go back to the Gold backing… But that’s not going to happen in my lifetime, so fuhgeddaboudit… 

And I wanted to mention that the Euro Wannabes of forint, zloty and koruna all stayed close to their lofty levels last week while the dollar went through its recent mini rally… I’ve always looked at these 3 currencies and indicators of when the dollar was in trouble… So, the fact that they remained steady Eddie while the dollar rallied, leads me to believe that the dollar’s rally is a house of cards… I guess we’ll see later today how that’s all working… eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the FOMC rate announcement for us today… And we’ll see in addition to the FOMC, August Retail Sales… which are expected to rebound from July’s negative -.06%…  Back to school sales will help Retail Sales have an appearance that U.S. consumers have a lot of money to spend…  Well, they don’t really have money to spend, instead they charge what they buy… Remember the latest Consumer Debt figure showed a HUGE increase in charge cards… 

To recap… Chuck was a Sooner yesterday with his call on the FOMC rate decision… It will come today so no more waiting… Chuck also says no rate hike today that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged…  And he gives us a brief history of the 10-year’s yield…  The dollar also bumped higher yesterday to 1,1198…

For What It’s Worth… My friends, Rich and Michael Checken  at ASI…, put together a nice piece on Silver that I thought was more than worthy!  And it can be found here: What the GSR Says About Silver Right Now

Or, here’s your snippet: “Silver dropped 2.3% last week after a significant 16% climb in August.

When prices pull back, hesitation is natural. But if your goal is to hedge against inflation, diversify with hard assets, and position part of your portfolio in a store of value with both monetary and industrial relevance, periods of weakness can be when the math starts to look better — not worse.

That is the case for buying silver at current price levels. The opportunity is not about chasing momentum. It is about recognizing relative value while sentiment is less enthusiastic.

Recent market action has created the kind of setup long-term investors should pay attention to: a meaningful pullback in silver prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a Gold-Silver Ratio that remains well above its long-run equilibrium.

Although silver has pulled back from earlier highs, it doesn’t automatically weaken the longer-term case. In healthy bull markets, sharp moves higher are often followed by equally emotional selloffs before the larger trend resumes. Those pullbacks can create attractive entry points for investors willing to focus on value instead of short-term noise.

At the same time, inflation concerns remain part of the macro backdrop. Higher fuel prices, geopolitical strain, and ongoing speculation around interest-rate policy are all reminders that monetary stability is never something investors should simply assume. When uncertainty rises, many investors revisit hard assets that can help diversify traditional paper-based exposure.

In fact, one of the strongest analytical cases for silver today isn’t the spot price. It’s silver’s relationship to gold.

According to a recent Silver Institute report, a Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) above the historical equilibrium of 60-to-1 signals that silver may be undervalued relative to gold. In other words, silver is becoming more inexpensive not only in absolute terms, but also in relative-value terms. Today’s GSR is about 68-to-1, which has been gradually increasing since the ratio hit a low of about 56-to-1 back when silver and gold hit all time highs at the end of January.

That is what makes the current environment so compelling. If gold remains supported by macro uncertainty, and the ratio begins to decrease once more, silver will outperform gold from current levels. Until the GSR drops below 50-to-1, it is a clear signal that the precious metals bull market remains intact for the long-term.”

Chuck again… I even carry a one ounce Silver Coil in my pocket at all times for Good Luck… of which I’ve haven’t experienced any Good Luck yet… But there’s always tomorrow! 

Market Prices 9/16/2026: American Style: A$ .7132, kiwi .5760, C$ .7173, euro 1.1539, sterling 1.3459, Swiss $1.2214, European Style: rand 16.2701, krone 9.3517, SEK 9.7920, forint 315.54, zloty 3.7679, koruna 21.0760,    RUB 84.38, yen 155.17, sing 1.2734, HKD 78449, INR 95.95, China 6.7081, peso 17.13, BRL 5.1480, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.04, Oil $103.87, 10-year 4.98%, Silver $65.87, Platinum $1,800.00, Palladium $1,328.00, Copper $6.51, and Gold… $4,347

That’s it for today, and this week… recall that I will go see my oncologist and get a treatment tomorrow… And then next Tuesday there will be no Pfennig, as I go to get the staples out of my scalp…  Like I said above, I’m all by myself for the next week, as Kathy had to go to Florida for business… I wasn’t feeling too well to travel, so I remained home, although I did want to go because the weather there is beautiful this time of year… Oh well…  I’ll ask for prayers for my darling daughter Dawn who will have surgery this Friday… (not life or death surgery, but surgery just the same) … John Lennon takes us to the finish line today with his song: #9 Dream (one of his best pieces in my mind) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the rate hike campers are bidding up the dollar
• Bessent is losing his battle with the bond boys

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A real relaxing day for me yesterday, but it was a good thing I took my heart medicine, as my beloved Cardinals tried to give away another game last night, but prevailed instead beating the Giants 2-1… These “Cardiac Cardinals” in tribute to the former Big Red Football team that was here, have played 51 one-score games this year… So, thus the nickname… Each day I wait until the trees behind our house provide shade on the deck and then I go out and read… No sunshine on my bald head for me! The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their great song: Never Comes The Day… (we used to play that song when I was with the band)

Well, the SPTs that were in early yesterday, decided to take a pause, midday, but upon seeing the Physical buyers start to rally Gold / Silver the SPTs went right back to work… Of course, they were pointing to the rising 10-year yield that went over 5% yesterday, as to their cover, if you will, for shorting the metals.

The dollar remained trading at the overnight rate of 1,194 in the BBDXY throughout the day yesterday… So, in my  mind, the mini-rally in the dollar is from PPT intervention…  And they were not participating yesterday… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit. After rising to $107 yesterday, it fired and fell back to end the day $103.00. And the 10-year I already told you gained yield again yesterday, which means the bonds were sold.. A friendly Spiderman reminder that in bonds, price and yield move vice-versus of each other… So, when bonds are getting bought, the yield goes down, and the opposite when bonds get sold… And getting sold is what’s going on here… 

Well, another Spiderman friendly notice… there will be no Pfennig this Thursday, and that’s an oncologist and treatment appt. Early in the morning… And then next Tuesday I go back to get the stapled out of my head, so no Pfennig then either… Sorry, but dr appts take the top billing of my time… 

Well, after the STUPID CPI and corresponding PPI reports last week, the bets on a rate hike this week went from 58% to 85%… So, according to those folks betting that a rate hike will take place, you might as well book it! Not so fast there Tim…  I’m still on the fence with the FOMC actually hiking rates… But, there will be no more waiting days for this to happen or not happen, as the FOMC meets this afternoon and decides and announces their decision… 

With the price of Oil continuing to rise, this has added pressure on the FOMC as they see the damage that these very high Oil prices are causing for everyone, especially the lower half of the K economy…  

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought some more and starts today with a 1,197 level in the BBDXY… I think everyone is on board with a rate hike today, so they’re buying the heck out of the dollar… But, when Inflation doesn’t budge, what will the dollar buyers do then?  

Gold / Silver just can’t seem to get past the STPs these days… Gold is down $12 to start the day, and Silver is up 1 penny… 

The price of Oil has slipped downward overnight, there must be a reason, but I can’t find one right now.. Oil starts today at $104.90

The 10-year also slipped overnight, and trades this morning with a 4.999% yield… 

Here’s the thing we need to look for IF the FOMC does hike rates… What message do they send to the markets, is this a one and done, or will there be more?  Or, will the Fed heads give some opaque reason for hiking rates that leaves the markets scratching their heads.. The message will determine whether or not the bond boys decide to keep marking up the yield on bonds… Because they bond boys had made a statement with their marking up of bond yields that they were NOT happy with the FOMC for not hiking rates previously, so they decided to do the heavy lifting of yields… 

IF the FOMC does hike rates, then that will leave the door open for the Bank of Japan to hike rates too… The BOJ meets tomorrow.. 

This will lead to the POTUS getting very angry, as he 1. Wants lower rates and 2. Wants a cheaper dollar… And a rate hike will achieve neither of those two… 

The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Keven Warsh, and U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent are at odds… Bessent wants to provide strength for the dollar, but at the same time gets his cues from the POTUS… And the POTUS has his eye on the damage higher rates will do to an economy and their fiscal situation… While Warsh, is there to fight inflation…  I take Warsh in a bout with Bessent… I’m just saying… 

OK, let’s talk about something else besides a rate hike… 

You know, when I was leading the EverBank World Markets Div. I used to write a Sunday Pfennig about once a month…  Well, the other day, my friend, David Gonigam of the 5 Bullets newsletter, was talking about Social Security and how it’s supposed to be bankrupt in the next decade…  He then entertained some ideas on how to keep SOC SEC going…  And that got me thinking to one of the Sunday Pfennigs titled: Chuck’s Debt Solutions… and how this was written a long time before David Gonigam began at Agora… or Paradigm Press.. Whatever they are these days… So, he wouldn’t know that I put together a plan for Soc. Sec. That didn’t involve printing new money to fund the Trust… 

Some of you might even remember that piece I did… I even did an investment conference where I repeated the Chuck’s Debt Solutions… It’s been a long time since I wrote that, and I have no idea where I might find it. So, you’ll just have to trust me that I wrote it and it’s out there in space somewhere… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the FOMC meeting and announcement on the docket for today… Nothing else… So, the FOMC has the con… 

To recap… The dollar is on a mini-rally right now (remember a trend is not a one-way street) The SPTs are having their way with selling Gold/Silver short these days… Chuck thinks they realize that the summer if coming to an end, and historically Gold/Silver rally in the fall and winter…  Chuck’s looking for his Debt Solutions write up he did many years ago…

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article and since I talked about U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent, and thought this is worthy… And it can be found here: Bessent dared bond traders to bet against him. They did, and won.

Or, here’s your snippet: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to be losing a tug-of-war with the bond markets he is also trying to influence.

In an effort to tamp down on longer-term interest rates and lower the government’s cost of borrowing, Bessent has resorted to an old playbook for tinkering with the bond market and its $30 trillion of U.S. debt backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

But rather than fall in line, bond traders have taken the opposite side of the Trump administration’s trade, extending a sell-off of U.S. Treasurys and pushing interest rates to multiyear highs.

Now, the Trump administration may be running out of moves.

It all began last month, when Bessent made a surprise move and promised to “at least double” the government’s typical repurchases of government debt.

The administration hoped the announcement would stir more demand for bonds and lower market pricing on interest rates. That, in theory, would have reduced the cost for the U.S. government to pay its bills, as the nation’s debt crossed the $40 trillion mark.

In tandem with moves to stop the Japanese yen’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar, the messaging from the Treasury Department was clear: It wanted to stop the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys.

Bessent’s message to the market was clear, too: Don’t bet against me. “I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” Bessent said at an event in Texas on Sept. 8. “You can bet against me if you want.”

Chuck again… And it looks as though the bond markets did bet against Bessent, and are winning… 

Market Prices 9/15/2026: A$ .7181, kiwi .5758, C$ .7239, euro 1.1545, sterling 1.3484, Swiss $1.2210, European Style: rand 16.2500, krone 9.3740, SEK 9.7755, forint 316.42, zloty 3.7602, koruna 21.0506, RUB 84.33, yen 155.15, sing 1.2729, HKD 7.8485, INR 95.96, China 6.7134, peso 17.14, BRL 5.1482, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.61, Oil $104.90, 10-year 4.999%, Silver $63.36, Platinum $1,770.00, Palladium $1,369.00, Copper $6.42, and Gold $4,289

That’s it for today… Big Day for rates today…  I’ll probably be napping when the decision is announced… Because, unless the FOMC is ready to hike rates to over 8% this one rate hike won’t mean a hill of beans to inflation… I’m just saying… I actually got my Martin acoustic guitar out yesterday. I hadn’t picked it up in over two years… Not that I’m going to start playing again, but I heard a song that I recalled playing years ago, just wanted to see if I recalled how to play it!  The Marsall Tucker Band takes us to the finish line today with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time…  I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning, I didn’t get to sleep until 3:30 am last night, when I did get to sleep I turned off the alarm… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar goes on a mini-rally
• The ECB hikes rates…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, last Friday was the 25^th observance of the deadliest attack on American Soil… I recall sitting at my desk at work with my little B&W 12-inch tv on and suddenly, the whole office was crowded around my little TV, watching the attacks in NYC and the Pentagon… It was surreal, and I couldn’t get my arms around the fact that these cowards had attacked the U.S….  There was more to find out, and I didn’t like any of it… No one did! Linda Ronstadt greets me this morning with her song: Blue Bayou… 

The PPT was in on Thursday and Friday last week as they saw an opportunity to intervene with everything else going towards a rising dollar…  First of all, the price of Oil reached $100 again, and that along with a soaring PPI (Wholesale Inflation) got the rate hike campers all lathered up and they began to buy dollars… 

The BBDXY recovered 3 index points on Thursday, and Friday drifted higher to end the week at 1,190… Take those two items along with a pinch of PPT, and you’ve got the recipe for a mini dollar rally… 

Gold / Silver didn’ fare too well on Thursday,  with the boys in the band, (the SPT’s) taking their pound of flesh. But the two rebounded on Friday with Gold ending the week at $ 4,347, up $32 on the day.      . And Silver ended the week at: $ 64.37, up 92-cents…           .

The rising yields in bonds are weighing on Gold/ Silver too… The 10-year Treasury reached 4.97% to end the week… I had told you that the 10-year would get to 5% and beyond a month or so ago, and now It’s upon us… 

What this is going to do to bond servicing costs for the U.S. is astronomical in terms of distress on our finances… But It is what it is… and bonds globally are really causing pain on Gov’ts… 

The price of Oil reached $100 again on Friday last week… and Diesel fuel rose to $7… Yikes, trucking companies must be pulling their hair out… 

In the overnight markets last night…the dogs of the dollar were released! The dollar gained 4 index points in the BBDXY last night and starts today/ this week at 1,194… The STUPID CPI wars to blame for all this renewed rate hike talk…  I’m still on the fence regarding the FOMC actually hiking rates tomorrow… But, I guess we’ll see, eh?

Gold / Silver are taking it on the chin again this morning with Gold down $57 and Silver down $1.40… Again, up one day, down the next… The summer is just about over, and that’s historically when these two get off the duff and get to rallying… I think the SPTs know that as well, and are making things difficult for the two metals before they get going higher…  

That’s just me thinking out loud, folks… Take it for whatever you think it’s worth… Me? I would be backing up the truck to take advantage of the cheaper prices of Gold/ Silver… I’m just saying…

This from Reuters: “European Central Bank raises interest rates for the second time this year, bumping deposit facility rate, up to 2.5% in response to surging energy costs. But with the dollar staging a mini-rally the euro didn’ respond favorably to the rate hike… It’ll come.. That’s my Pfennig for you today.

The Bank of Japan is set to meet this week, and most observers see the BOJ hiking rates again… I know that sounds strange, because it had been over 2 decades since the BOJ took on inflation, but it is what it is… 

The yen has really rallied a for now… Rate hike thoughts and the overall drop in the dollar are the reasons for the rally in yen. But… Japan’s debt problems, their demographics, and isolation still weigh on the yen, and will come back to haunt the yen once again, in due time… A Pfennig for you from me, today. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised even me this past week with a rate hike of their own. This from Reuters: “European Central Bank raises interest rates for a second time this year, bumping the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. They said that this was in response to surging energy costs. But with the dollar staging a mini-rally the euro didn’ respond favorably to the rate hike… It’ll come… That’s another Pfennig from me today for you…

So, we have the BIG 2 Central Banks meeting this week to discuss interest rates… The Fed/Cabal/ Cartel, and the BOJ… And from the looks of it, all will hike rates in response to rising inflation…

Speaking of rising inflation, I wonder what the propeller heads were thinking when the showed that the STUPID CPI was only 3.4% YTD? I guess they couldn’t come out and print a real inflation number, so they settled for a 3.4% rate, which is still 1.4% above the 2% target that the Fed Heads set… 

Of course, that 2% target hasn’t been matched, so one has to wonder just what the Fed Heads are doing?  I mean, why set a target when you never intend to aim for it?  But that’s a question for them to ponder…. And from my view from the cheap seats…  They aren’t pondering anything… 

Except, the Fed Heads say their main focus is on inflation… They are stuck between a rock and a hard place…  The old two-handed economist comes out… On one hand, the Fed Heads want to show the public that they can fight inflation and bring it down… On the other hand, they realize that to help with the $40 Trillion debt, that higher inflation would certainly help to reduce it… 

The Petrol Currencies are really having a ball right now, with the rising costs of global Oil.. The Norwegian krone, the U.K. Sterling, and the Brazilian real have really responded favorably. Shoot Rudy, even the Mexican peso and Russian ruble are looking better these days… 

I told you last week that the Norwegian Wealth Fund, was thinking about reducing their Treasury / dollar holdings because of the rising risk in holding U.S assets. This is HUGE folks… because the total of Treasury holding by the Fund, is somewhere around $40 Billion…  that would end up seeing the bond market absorb $40 Billion of supply that no one wants right now… Uh-Oh! This isn’t a “policy” right now, but all indicators point to the actual selling of Treasuries…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty today, but all eyes are on Tomorrow, when he FOMC meets and a rate decision will take place… I’m still on the fence about the FOMC actually hiking rates this close to a general election… That’s why I have my eye on the Dec 9 FOMC meeting for the first rate hike… But I do admit that all signs point to a rate hike tomorrow, so there’s that… 

To recap… The dollar selling last week ended on Thursday with some data that points to a rate hike this week. On Friday, though the dollar jus drifted a bit higher… In Chuck’s mind, we’ll get back to dollar selling after the FOMC meets tomorrow…  The Bank of Japan will meet this week to discuss rates, and the ECB did raise them last week.

For What It’s Worth..  Well, we only have one more month to go before we close the books on the U.S.’s fiscal year… And the word is not good as to what to expect… This is what this article on Zerohedge.com has for us and it can be found here: US 2026 Budget Deficit Hits $1.97 Trillion With One Month Left; Interest At Record $1.4 Trillion | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “With DOGE disbanded more than a year ago, and tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, the US is no longer even pretending that there is any hope to normalize spending, or any kind of happy ending to the US debt trajectory.

At 2pm today the US Treasury published the latest, August, monthly budget deficit data, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that things are looking ever worse.

Total US receipts were $360 billion, a modest improvement from the $344 billion a year ago, with individual income taxes accounting for $179 billion, or half of the total, and the bulk of the balance coming from Social Insurance and Retirement receipts of $141 billion.

On the spending side, things were ugly: total outlays were $527 billion, a modest improvement to the $689.1 billion a year ago, but much of that had to do with the calendar impact of tariffs.

Putting receipts and spending in context, a chart of the trailing 6 months of government revenue and spending shows that the two trendlines are rapidly diverging, with spending on pace to surpass the covid all-time high, even as government revenue remains stuck in a much more narrow range.

The difference between the two, is of course, the US budget deficit, which in August was $166.8 billion, an improvement from July’s massive $432 billion deficit, which however was the result of some calendar discrepancies between the two months. What matters more is that fir the first 11 months of fiscal 2026 (with just one month left in the fiscal year), the total US deficit is now $1.97 trillion, identical with last year, although since 2025 saw a big drop in the final month of the year, we are confident that 2026 will be about $200bn worse than the previous year when all is said and done, and be the 3rd worst year for the US deficit on record, with just the crisis years of 2020 and 2021 worse.

Finally, turning to the elephant in the room, namely interest expense, in August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense, which means that with 1 month left in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago…”

Chuck again… And in my own opinion, the spending on bond servicing (interest) will continue to grow higher and higher… Think of Sly Stone and Woodstock, saying, ” I want to take you higher”…  Speaking of Woodstock, I need to get my recording of it and watch it again, I always get a kick out of it… 

Market Prices 9/14/2026: American Style: A$ .7129, kiwi .5772, C$ .7200, euro 1.1550, sterling 1.3490, Swiss $1.2243, European Style: rand 16.2487, krone 9.3239, SEK 9.7711, forint 316.37, zloty 3.7594, koruna 21.0372,  RUB .8422, yen 154.5, sing 1.2706, HKD 7.8435, INR 95.55, China 6.7089, peso 17.09, BRL 5.1614, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 99.48, Oil $103.13, 10-year 4.97%, Silver$63.20, Platinum $1,776.00, Palladium $1,312.00, Copper $642, and Gold $4,292

That’s it for today… The Moh’s surgery on my scalp went off without a hitch… Some pain yesterday but that was soothed by the fact that my beloved Mizzou Tigers beat the heck out of the KU Jayhawks… That was fun! I sat outside at my son, Andrew’s house, watching the game on a big projector screen, with his friends, that really got a kick that I still get excited about Mizzou Football!  Andrew is a great host, too! I was up la lot last night so I’m dragging the line this morning…. Sweet takes us to the finish line today with their song: Fox On The Run… (this is a good song too!) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar sees some love in the overnight markets
• Chuck smells the PPT’s work…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A short week for writing for me, but that’s Ok, the previous week had a Friday message!  My beloved Cardinals blew 3 straight games in San Fran and come home limping to play the White Sox… The manager is to blame for yesterday’s loss… I’ll say no more…  And my beloved Mizzou Tigers take on KU tomorrow night, this game scares me, let’s hope I’m all wrong about that! Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his song; Baby I Need Your Lovin’… 

Well, that was quite the long pfennig yesterday, eh? You see, I’m currently on steroids to get my system all regulated again and Those Steroids keep me awake at night. So, instead of just lying there, I got up and began to write what was on my mind… And voila’ a very long Pfennig…  No add today, I think I’ll included them every other day, going forward. 

I told you yesterday that the dollar was in trouble… And yesterday, after falling to 1,186 in the BBDXY Index, it remained there the rest of the day. The futures markets has lowered their bets on a Rate Hike this month… Last week, the bets were 68% on a rate hike… But now, the bets have fallen to 58%… Maybe, they’ve been reading the Pfennig, where I explained that a rate hike is NOT guaranteed in Sept…Nah… these guys think they are way too smart to be filling their heads with Chuckisms… 

Gold/Silver had good days yesterday, after seeing their levels reduced the previous day, they came back strong yesterday… Gold gained $46 to close at $4,402… And Silver gained $1.63 to close at $67.42… One day up, the next down they see short selling… UGH! 

The price of Oil continues to rise, and yesterday Oil closed at $97.06… Almost $100 again.. But didn’t I tell you a month ago after all the rhetoric was around a Pease Agreement and the price of Oil dropped, that the drop wouldn’t stay down too long… And here we are once again knocking on the door to $100.. And remember, that’s the Global refinery price, long before it gets changed to gas, diesel and Jet Fuel, where all the fun begins, and the final price you pay at the pump is ready for you to consume… 

And the 10-year got a boost from Stanley Druckenmiller’s Wall Street Journal Op-Ed titled, “Let The Bond Markets Speak”… the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.85% and that’s where it stayed to the end of the day…  He was referring to U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent announcement that he was going to double down on bond buying… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, not so fast there Tim… The dollar’s selling ended overnight for a bit, and the BBDXY regained 3 index points to 1,189… I didn’t see that the world had come to a peace agreement and there would be no mor wars, so that’s not what moved the dollar higher… In my mind, it must have been the PPT doing some buying to keep the dollar from falling further… 

The STPs are out and about today, after seeing that their work on getting the short timers out of Gold/ Silver failed once again yesterday, they decided to get right back at the job today. Gold is down $27 to start the day, and Silver is down $1.53… UGH! One day up, the next day down trading really gives me a rash… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and trades this morning with a $96 handle… progress in the Strait is nonexistent, so these blips downward in Oil are just that… Blips… Nothing infrastructure related, so use the blip as your opportunity to buy cheaper… I’m just saying

And the 10-year Treasury is on a march to 5% and Bessent’s bond buying isn’t going to stop the bond boys from their mission… The 10-year starts today at 4.88% 

I think I wrote about everything under the moon and stars yesterday, so there’s nothing more to add…

And do you know what’s fueling inflation? What have I aways taught you? That inflation comes from an expansion of Money Supply… And what’s the U.S.’s money supply situation right now? Well, according to my figures, since this data isn’t published any longer because the Gov’t wants to be able to lie to you about inflation… OK, according to my figures, Money Supply is running at an 8% rate…   That’s a very high rate and unless Fed/Cabal/ Cartel head honcho, Kevin Warsh is serious about fighting inflation… he needs to lasso Money Supply and bring it down… Rate hikes , Schmate Hikes… Money Supply is the key Mr. Warsh… I’m sure that somewhere along your collegiate journey, you studied that, but have forgotten about it… 

I say Rate Hike, Schmate Hikes, because unless Warsh is willing to bring the U.S. economy to its breaking point and beyond, he would look to hike rates double the rate of inflation… John Williams at Shadow Stats.com says real inflation Is 4% or more, so if Warsh hike rates 8.5% he could hang his hat on the same peg as Paul Volker once did…

It’s interesting, I read where John Willams believes that inflation is coming down right now…  Now I hadn’t heard that one, but now, I need to research it and see where he’s coming from with that statement…  inflation may be coming down, but prices sure aren’t!  

The Petrol Currencies are having a really good time watching the price of Oil rising… Shoot Rudy, even the Russian ruble has moved in the right direction these days…  Sterling, krone, reals, and even pesos are all loving this move higher in Oil… And these currencies are from their respective country and the good thing is that they all mine Oil, and refine it… Refineries are the key, and a country like Brazil has to take in refined Oil because they don’t have enough refineries… 

The euro hit 1.1630 yesterday and then stopped rising… The Bundesbank doesn’t like the euro too strong, and I’m sure they manipulated the currency to keep the euro in check…  But, if the dollar continues to lose ground, then the Bundesbank will have to suck it up and take it!  Ahhh, remembering a real Bundesbank President, Hans Tietmeyer… Those were the days, when I used to write about the Bundesbank a lot! But that all changed when the European Central Bank came along and took the starch out of the collars of the Bundesbank…  But they still have a say about monetary Policy in the Eurozone… The Bundesbank is very important in Eurozone, for they are the Central Bank of Germany, which happens to be the largest economy of the Eurozone… Guess who they call on phone when they have a question about monetary policy?  Yes, you guessed it!   ( A little organiation for the Eurozone for you this morning !)

Circling the Wagons regarding Gold.. Ed Steer had this article in his letter yesterday, and so I borrowed it to use here… “Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure even as the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a more assertive stance on inflation.

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, bought bullion on the expectation it will return to $5,000/oz by year-end. Fund managers at Pictet Asset Management, Robeco Institutional Asset Management and Fidelity International also added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high.

“Gold is an asset that we consider to be cheap, a good hedge and reasonably liquid,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute.”

Chuck again…  I’d say that Gold is more than “reasonably liquid”… It IS LIQUID!  I’m sure this guy was just trying to keep the hype bole to an even level… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back on board with some prints today, leading off with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And then PPI (Wholesale Inflation) for August will print… The forecasters are calling for a large upward move in PPI, so I guess we’ll see, eh? So, if PPI is printing today, that means the STUPID CPI will print soon, and tomorrow is soon enough! 

And to finish off, Ron Paul, says people should own Gold, and not the Gov’t… Seems like a very good statement to me!

To recap… The dollar is in trouble, Gold & Silver have great days yesterday, an the price of Oil soars higher, where the 10-year Treasury gets back to seeing its yield rise, this time to 4.85% 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, if you’ve been reading the Pfennig, you would already know that I don’t hold U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent’s recent actions dear to me… In fact… He’s a blowhard! He told an audience at SMU recently, that, “I am the house now”…  since he intervened to keep the Bank of Japan from selling their treasuries… Of course, he tried to sell the action as “helping the Japanese currency”… What a bunch of bunk! Oh, well, apparently, I’m not the only one that thinks he way off base here… And that’s what this article Is all about and can be found here: He once mentored Scott Bessent. Now Stanley Druckenmiller is criticizing the Treasury secretary. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent maneuvers in the bond market have come in for some searing criticism from illustrious investor Stanley Druckenmiller — his mentor and longtime ally.

The billionaire investor, who worked with the Treasury secretary at Soros Fund Management, voiced his disapproval of Bessent’s tactics in a strongly worded op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal Monday. Headlined “Let the bond markets speak,” Druckenmiller’s fault-finding focused on Bessent’s unscheduled announcement last week that the Treasury would at least double its purchases of long-dated bonds

Druckenmiller also strongly denounced the subsequent statement from Treasury Department officials about using the near–$1 trillion Treasury General Account to intervene in the bond market to suppress yields.

Druckenmiller’s critique was unambiguous: “This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management — and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests.”

Druckenmiller’s opposition to Treasury policy in essence boils down to Margaret Thatcher’s famous dictum: “You cannot buck the market.”

‘The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.’

Druckenmiller writes that “markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.”

This is the central point of Druckenmiller’s argument: that governments expand commitments and refuse to rein in spending until “the political price of a rising long bond [yield] finally exceeds the political price of touching spending.”

A research note, also published Monday, by Citadel Securities strategist Nohshad Shah makes a similar point: “This amounts to financial repression at the margin. The bond market’s message is straightforward: fiscal or monetary policy should be tighter. Preventing Treasurys from clearing at lower prices does not eliminate pressure. It merely shifts it elsewhere.”

What annoys Druckenmiller is not just the questionable wisdom of Bessent’s strategy but the necessity. He emphasizes, ”There were no failed auctions, no dealer balance-sheet seizure, no forced unwinds.” In short, there was no market dysfunction that Bessent was obliged to address, just the market pricing Treasury yields at roughly the same rate the U.S. economy grows.

When the national debt has just hit $40 trillion and the budget deficit is around 6% of GDP, Druckenmiller suggests markets are a better judge of bond prices than the Treasury is.”

Chuck Again…  Stanley Druckenmiller is right… He’s so smart and educted, and trustworthy…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 9/10/2026: American Style: A$ .7190, kiwi .5829, C$ .7236, euro 1.1625, sterling 1.3525, Swiss $1.2316, European Style: rand 16.3136, krone 9.2617, SEK 9.6416, forint 313.75, zloty 3.7198, koruna 20.8727,  RUB 84.10, yen 154.15, sing 1.2669, HKD 7.8414, INR 95.44, China 6.7074, peso 16.74, BRL 5.1262, BBDXY 1,189, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $96.21, 10-year 4.88%, Silver $65.59, Platinum $1,834.00, Palladium $1,335.00, Copper $676, and Gold… $4,374

That’s it for today and this week… we finally received some rain last night, and since I couldn’t sleep, I sat there watching the rain fall… This took me back to right after my two huge cancer surgeries, when I would sit on the front porch, just to be outside and watch the sprinkler system work…  My good friend, Mike Kettler, who’s fighting his own cancer right now, came down the street and sat with me for a couple of innings yesterday… It was good to see him out and about… I know that it’s the little things that make your day when you are going through what he’s going through right now… Steelers Wheel takes us to the finish line today with their big 70’s song; Stuck in The Middle With You… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies all look heathier!
• Norway makes a HUGE announcement…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I’m back and so are you! I hope your Labor Day Holiday was grand… And I didn’t even BBQ! and Alex and Grace were here with my new grandson, so it was grand for me! My good friend, Duane, cooked up some pork Cluckers and they were yummy! I have a change for the Pfennig that will begin today… The We Five greet me this morning with their song: You Were On My Mind… 

As you are aware, I was taken in to write the Pfennig for Battle Bank last year… And with that save by them, I asked for ads to be placed in the Pfennig each day… So, they finally said yes, and wrote a couple for me to rotate… And so…  here’s today’s ad… 

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OK, with that out of the way, The dollar is in trouble folks… I think everyone. Except Bessent, POTUS, and a few others with blinders on, are finally seeing that Bessent sent the dollar to the woodshed with his last two announcements. Of which I’ve previously written about, but in case you missed class that day… First was the 10 billion worth of euros sold to intervene and help the Japanese. (But after further review, I reported that it wasn’t to help the Japanese, it was to help the U.S. from seeing the Bank of Japan from selling their Treasuries horde, to protect the yen themselves… )

The other item as when Bessent announced that QE was back (Ok, he didn’t really say QE was back, but that’s what it was, and he said that the Fed Heads would “double down” buying 10&30 year Treasuries) This was done to keep yields on the these bonds keep going higher… 

Of course, I’ve been telling you all about the Fed Heads’ “yield control” operations, now they admit they’ve been doing it, AND, they will double down on the buying… 

So, now we have these two announcements to point to as to why the dollar is diving… Because other countries that hold Treasuries, and dollars heard these announcements and decided that they were going to reduce their risk to these assets, because… The risk is becoming just too large1

The BBDXY ended trading on Friday last week at 1,190, and looking like it’s ready to go lower… And it has, overnight the markets took it down to start the day at 1,186… 

The Jobs Jamboree for August printed last Friday, and the BLS cooked the books to show a gain of 162,000 jobs… Well, looking under he hood, we see that 74,000 jobs from thin air were created by the BLS and added to the surveys…  AND… think about this for a moment, what month do Teachers go back to work? August, did anyone think that over 40,000 Teachers came back on the payrolls?   

So, in my mind, only 40 something jobs were actually added in August…  162-74-40… go ahead and prove to me that 162,000 REAL JOBS were added in August! Because I’ll point out the hundreds of thousands of jobs taken away when the BLS finally gets around to revising the reports… 

So, all the talk about the strong Labor Report and how this would lead to a rate hike this month… is built on a house of cards… And those cards are about to come crumbling down… 

Gold/ Silver couldn’t get past the SPTs on Thursday and Friday last week, and the two ended the week on a down note… Ed Steer tells us that on Friday, Gold was up over $60 only to see the SPTs Take it down to end the week down to $4,429… And Silver couldn’t do anything better, as it ended the week at $66.34, which was $1.44 off its intraday high… 

Yesterday, while I was having my head examined, and got word that my Mohs surgery will be this Friday, the dollar lost more ground… and one of the reasons I believe this is that yields on Treasuries keep rising, the dollar is fading… The yields on Treasuries rising aren’t a “growth reason”, it’s a “risk” problem right now, and the dollar is in the middle of it… 

Gold/ Silver did not get a chance to get out of the gates on the right foot yesterday, as the SPTs took their usual pound of flesh from the two… Gold lost $ 74.00,    to end the day at $4, 357, Silver lost $ 66-cents to end the day at $65.88….So, all in all, the dollar is in trouble, and only a rate hike will save it from falling off a cliff…  The risk of owning just dollar denominated investments is just too high for me right now, and you should be thinking of that too!

The price of Oil rose to a $94 handle… And I want you to think about Oil for a minute… This is the global price stated, but it’s before it goes to the refinery to changed to gas, diesel, jet fuel etc. And that would be the price that you pay at the pump, after the gas Co.’s markup… No wonder gas is over $4 right now…  And the 10-year Treasury, stopped the chipping off of its yield that was going on last week and headed higher to end the day yesterday with a 4.79% yield… 

In my mind, we should have been hiking rates months ago, instead of cutting them…. So, maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) The rate hike will be shrugged off by the markets because the Fed Heads are behind the inflation 8 ball… I’m just saying… 

Be sure, you noticed that I said “maybe”… I don’t want 100’s of emails telling me I was wrong when IF the dollar responds favorably to the rate hike… That is IF the Fed Heads do actually hike rates… 

Well, this morning I have to get ready to go see my oncologist, she wants to make sure that I’m not dehydrated any longer, and sick… of which I am not! SICK IN THE HEAD, BUT NOT PHYSICALLY SICK! The appt is in the middle of the morning, so I had time, as long as I woke up at “dark thirty” and wrote to you before leaving… 

Circling the wagons on a potential Rate hike this month… I read yesterday that Jim Rickards is calling for no rate hike until 12/9…  By then, the dollar should be well intrenched in its weak trend, and to stop it will take a Hurculean effort by Kevin Warsh and the Fed Heads…

Of course, Warsh could look to settle down the bond yields, but implenting Quantitative Easing again… But, as Dave Gonigam of 5 Bullets tells me, Warsh was on board the Fed / Cabal /Cartel when the 1^st round of QE went off, but then his stomach turned on the next two phases of QE and re resigned his post at the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… and John Mauldin once told me in Vancouver years ago that he sat in on a meeting of Congressmen who said that those words, Quantitative Easing, will never be spoken again…  But, we all know that they just changed the phrase to now call it “yield control”…  What? They think we’re stupid and won’t figure it out, I think!  

My friend, Rich Chekan of ASI, wrote an article a couple of days ago, that I found something that I think will interest you quite a bit… “To Every Thing There Is a Season…

… and a time to every purpose under the Heaven.” (Ecclesiastes 3:1-8)

The time from fall through winter, for gold, is the time for higher prices.

Of course, there are no guarantees that this will be the case this year, but that is historically the pattern.

Jewelers are buying to make the trinkets consumers buy for wedding season, the traditional holiday season, and for new year’s celebrations.

Investors are back from vacation and once again paying attention to their investments… to include gold.

As a result, the high price for gold for any given year is typically hit between September and February. By typically, I mean 80% of the time”

So, even if Secretary Bessent did not shock gold and silver prices higher over the past month, they were bound to start their ascent anyway. He just got them moving a little sooner than usual”

Chuck Again… yes, the time for Gold is upon us… Think back to last winter, Gold rose nearly every day, without interruptions from the SPTs to go above $5,589…  So, what are you waiting for? Oh, I know, you’re waiting for the next leg down in Gold aren’t you? Well, in my humble opinion, one that doesn’t wear gold hued glasses, the next leg down isn’t coming… So, buck up buddy, and look to get some Gold or Silver before the price gets away from you again…  My humble opinion, can always be wrong… I’m just saying… But, in my history, it has usually led me right… So, there’s that!

In the currencies, the euro closed last Friday at 1.1614, and its up even more this morning, but don’t peek ahead at the currency roundup… And in the FWIW Section this morning, you’ll see why I’m commenting on the Norwegian krone… The krone is inching ever so nearer to an 8 figure, and it will get there as long as the price of Oil remains high, and the euro continues its march higher… 

Oil is raging higher this morning,as it trades at $94.34, and the 10-year’s yield got marked higher to 4.80% to start our day… So… there you go!

The U.S. Data Cupboard only has Consumer Credit (read debt) for us the next two days, so the dollar is on its own, with a little help from its friends (Beatles) You know, yield control, and false rhetoric…  The Consumer Credit rose from 14.2 Billion to 18.1 Billion in July… Yikes! What are these people thinking of? Buying on credit, when credit markets are looking petty iffy right now? Of course! School’s back so student loans were up…  I close my eyes, and think, “Dear Lord, please help us to figure this all out before it come crashing down all around us”… The bulk of the spike upward was caused by a whopping credit card useage, as the consumers added $2.8 Billion to their credit cards, pushing credit card debt to $1.357 Trillion!  I shake my head and wonder what was so darn important that they had to buy…..????

To recap… this is the time, the place, and the setting where Gold /Silver take off, well, maybe after the rate hike if there is one…  The dollar is in trouble, and U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent has caused the new damage to the green/peachback…  and to think, he’s supposed to be the “Big Protector” of the dollar… Remember when Robert Rubin was Treasury Sec. And he would daily preach that The U.S. dollar was strong? Well, if you don’t recall him, that’s OK, that’s what I’m here for! But it was during the Clinton administration, and we, as a county, except those in Arkansas, have forgotten about him… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is HUGE news and bad for the dollar and Treasuries… it’s an article that explains what the Norwegian Wealth Fund has announced and it can be found here: World’s biggest sovereign wealth fund plans to cut Treasury holdings

Or, here’s your snippet: “Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.

The heads of Norges Bank Investment Management wrote in a letter to the country’s Finance Ministry, made public Friday, that it recommended reducing the government subindex of its bond holdings from 70% to 50% — a level it said would provide sufficient liquidity during market turbulence while allowing it to seek greater returns elsewhere.

The proposed reallocation would gradually cut NBIM’s Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9%, reduce its euro area holdings from 16.8% to 14.1%, and increase its share of Japanese government bonds to 7.4% from 4.6%.

NBIM also wants to begin weighting its government bond holdings by market value instead of gross domestic product because of the high debt loads of almost all developed economies.”

Chuck Again… Hey, these are very intelligent folks at the Norwegian Wealth Fund… and to think they made this decision willy-nilly, you’d be dead wrong… The risk they hold right now, is in Treasuries and dollars, and I commend them for addressing these risks…. 

Market Prices 9/9/2026: American Style: A$.7221, kiwi .5845, C$ .7257,    euro 1.1633. Sterling 1.3546, Swiss $1.2351, European Style: rand 16.0429. Krone 9.2143, SEK 9.5844, forint 312.92, zloty 3.7104, koruna 20.5291,      RUB 85.53, yen 153.29, sing 1.2645, HKD 7.8421, INR 95.49, China 6.7038, peso 16,89. BRL 5.0861, BBDXY 1,186. Dollar Index 99.05, Oil $94.34, 10-year 4.80%, Silver $66.68, Platinum $1,858.00, Palladium $1,376.00, Copper $6.76, and Gold… $4,399

That’s it for today… What a first week in college football, there were games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday night!  Have you seen the NFL commercial that’s a take-off of the Camel saying Mike, Mike, Mike what day I it? I cracked up laughing, because we used to say that to Mike Meyer when he arrived for work on Wednesdays….  This coming Friday night, my beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Lawrence KS to play the Jayhawks of KU… This is a  HUGE rivalry game that goes back to the war between Kansas and Missouri… So, I’ll be nervous all day on Friday… Tommy James & The Shondells take us to the finish line this morning with their great song: Crystal Blue Persuasion… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The Wash, Rinse, and repeat cycle has moved on now…
• Frank Trotter gives us his final installment….

Good Day, and a Fantastico Friday to one and all! This is a special Friday edition of the Pfennig, not normal one, as it’s the final installment of Frank Trotter’s article on Currency Diversification and other things. That’s all that’s here today, besides a currency roundup, so don’t think that Chuck is ready to write again on Fridays!  NO WAY!  I can’t thank Frank enough for doing this for me and you… Today, he even mentions little old me! Thank you, Frank!

For What It’s Worth… This is the final installment of Frank Trotter’s Currency Article title: What’s On The Other Side? A Serious Look At Currency Investing…  And can be found in its entirety here: https://battlebank.com/battle-bulletin/whats-on-the-other-side-of-every-trade-a-serious-look-at-currency-investing/?refid=10002

We pick this up with his discussion of currencies we should look to with Kiwi being on the fence…  here’s Frank:

A Word About the Kiwi

New Zealand’s dollar is routinely comingled with the commodity currency bloc, filed alongside the Aussie and the loonie as if the three were interchangeable. The grouping is correct as far as it goes but misleading past that point. The kiwi is genuinely commodity linked: Dairy, meat and horticulture dominate exports, dairy auction prices move the currency, and China’s appetite sets the tone as New Zealand’s largest trading partner. But the kiwi’s commodities are soft, not hard. New Zealand sells protein and produce, not energy and metals, so it participates only partially in the hard-asset cycles that drive the loonie and the Aussie. Add a chronically deficit-prone current account, a small and shallow float, and a central bank with a history of aggressive swings, and the kiwi becomes the most fragile member of the family.

The year 2025 demonstrated the distinction. While the Aussie gained against a falling dollar, the kiwi actually lost ground, sinking a bit as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed its cash rate to 2.25% in response to a shrinking economy, a second-quarter GDP contraction of 0.9% and unemployment at a five-year high. Two commodity currencies, one dollar bear market, opposite outcomes. The lesson is that the commodity label is a necessary screen, not a sufficient one. The fiscal, monetary and external filters still have to be applied, and on those filters New Zealand currently fails where Australia passes.

Gold: The Currency Without a Central Bank

No serious discussion of currencies can end with paper. Gold is the one money in the system that no committee can print, and its price is best understood not as a commodity quote but as the inverse of confidence in the entire fiat complex. With that reading, the recent message is unambiguous. Gold surged roughly 65% in 2025, its largest annual gain in over four decades, and by mid-2026 it traded above $4,100 per ounce. Central banks, the same reserve managers that absorbed the 2022 lesson about the political conditionality of dollar assets, bought at elevated rates for a third consecutive year.

What the Commentators Are Saying

The independent financial analyst world saw all this earlier than Wall Street did, which is worth acknowledging even while discounting the theatrics. Chuck Butler deserves first mention because he’s been making the currency diversification case longer than almost anyone in American finance. His Daily Pfennig letter, still publishing today, has hammered a single theme since at least 2005: Deficits do matter, and never in history has one country owed so much to the rest of the world without a currency crisis.

Jeff Opdyke, the former Wall Street Journal writer now publishing from Portugal, has argued for years that Americans should hold foreign accounts and currencies. He warned of the dollar’s diminution as BRICS nations assemble alternatives and claims vindication in the 2025 decline.

Doug Casey remains the maximalist: To him, every fiat currency is an IOU nothing — the dollar most dangerously so given its numeraire status. His prescription is to exit into precious metals rather than rotate among papers.

Grant Williams offers the historically grounded frame, tracing an 80-year arc from Bretton Woods and arguing that reserve currencies fade through redirection rather than collapse, with the 2022 reserve freeze as the Suez moment that taught central banks the dollar carries political risk.

Alexander Green and the Oxford Club strategists occupy the moderate wing, advocating global diversification across asset classes within conventional portfolios rather than using it as an escape from them.

And the mainstream has now converged partway toward all of these views. J.P. Morgan’s private bank tells clients the dollar’s risks skew downward and recommends revisiting currency allocations. Morningstar calls the dollar still overvalued despite the 2025 decline and points to non-U.S. assets for value and currency appreciation potential. Morgan Stanley has floated another 10% of dollar downside by the end of 2026. When the contrarians and the wire houses agree on direction and argue only about magnitude, the sensible conclusion is not panic. It is allocation.

The Opportunity

Currency investing done properly, like a lot of our daily chores, is unexciting. Confine yourself to the major floating currencies. Expect currency-like returns, not equity-like returns, and understand that in the occasional year the two will rhyme. Judge currencies on relative money growth, relative inflation, relative deficits and debt, credit standing, float and rate differentials — weighed together — and apply those filters even inside the commodity bloc, where the kiwi and the loonie show that geology alone is not enough. Favor the monies of commodity producers and fiscal adults: the krone, the Aussie, the franc and the euro as the liquid counterweight to the dollar. Keep gold as the anchor beneath the whole structure, the one currency that answers to no finance ministry. And above all, stop mistaking a 100% dollar portfolio for a neutral position. There is no neutral position. There is only the currency risk you chose and the currency risk you never noticed you were taking. – Frank Trotter

Chuck again… Well, that’s the end of one of the best pieces on Currencies that I’ve read and I’m very elated to be able to share it with Pfennig Readers…  I used to travel with Frank to do Conferences, and I when would introduce him I would say: “Frank and I have worked so long together that when we started the Dead Sea wasn’t even sick yet!” 

OK, here’s the currency roundup for today, and I’ll see you here again on Wednesday next week, as Monday is a Holiday in my eye, and Tuesday I go to see the Dr that will perform the Mohs surgery on my cancer spot… So, take this one in and then we’re on sabbatical until Wednesday next week!

Currencies 9/3/2026: American Style: A$ .7207, kiwi .5888, C$ .7247,    euro 1.1625, sterling 1.3530, Swiss $1.2367, European Style: rand 15.9469, krone 9.2928, SEK 9.5491, forint 312.15, zloty 3.7123, koruna 20.5076,   RUB 86.54, yen 156.15, sing 1.2668, HKD 7.8403, INR 94.49, China 6.7085, peso 16.89, BRL 5.1130, BBDXY 1,190, Dollar Index 99.01, Oil $90.01, 10-year 4.76%, Silver $67.29, Platinum $1,819.00, Palladium $1,433.00, Copper $6.66, and Gold… $4,473

The times have changed for this phase of the SPTs Wash, Rinse and Repeat cycle, where they short the metals so much that the return is baked into their trades… They then begin to amass the metals driving them up exponentially till the metals are at a price that makes sense for the SPTs to short them again… And thus, here we go around and around again… But I want to empathize that each time the metals rebound they go to a level higher than they were when the short selling began… So, that is why you buy Gold/Silver and forget about them!  

That’s it for today… and this week… My beloved Mizzou Tigers came out of the gates roaring last night, and won their game 54-14… I was outside watching it and every time the Tigers scored, I would turn my Turtle Box speaker on and blast the Mizzou Fight Song… I’m sure my new neighbors were wondering what the heck Chuck was doing now… The Cardinals blew the chance to sweep the Mighty Dodgers last night, blowing the lead in the bottom of the ninth… UGH! Wild Cherry takes us to the Finish Line today with their song: Play That Funky Music… HEY! This is a fun song to bring back memories of when you first heard this song! I hope you have a Fantastico Friday today, and a very safe but fun Labor Day Holiday this weekend. Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets sold on economic reports
• We revisit the Great Mogambo Guru!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I have a special treat for your reading pleasure that will take place tomorrow.  I will give the final piece of Frank Trotter’s article on Currency Diversification in a special Friday Pfennig tomorrow. I didn’t want to carry that last piece over the weekend, so we’ll end it tomorrow… I can’t thank enough for doing this for me and you… He even mentions little old me! Thank you Frank!

No skipping ahead allowed! HA! In observance of the late Great Mogambo Guru… here’s snippet from one of his letters: “”Since before the time of the Pharaohs, all nations have contended with the same financial forces in existence today. They had (in one form or another) money, debt, and taxes.

They all had government spending. And every single one of these nations, in all of history, was eventually ruined by its government. Their money was debased to the point of worthlessness by the government spending too much to do too much, and then the country collapsed.

Why should we expect to be any different?”

Chuck again…  Richard Daughty ( The Great Mogambo Guru) was a friend of mine and I think about him a lot, still after all these years he’s been gone to play his banjo in heaven… 

Well, all that to tell you that the dollar lost 3 index Points yesterday after the ADP Employment Reported that only 38,000 jobs were created in August…  And then piling on The Fed/Cabal/ Cartel’s Beige Book, which give us the pulse of the Fed Regions across the country said the Outlook: The overall economic outlook remained positive, but businesses expressed heightened uncertainty regarding future energy prices, policy shifts, and international conflicts ahead of the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC interest rate meeting”

And Gold/Silver finally saw some daylight yesterday with Gold gaining $63 on the day to close at $4,388 and Silver gained $1.59 to close at $65.45. I was happy to see that the STPs didn’t bring the two metals down again yesterday… But the data was so skewed toward a weak dollar that I guess they decided to sit this song out… 

They didn’t sit out altogether though, Gold/Silver had posted even stronger gains on the day, but the SPTs made sure they stayed within a range, and knocked them down a bit… The SPTs wanted to make certain that all the damage they had done was not wiped out in one day’s trading… No, it will take a few days to make up lost ground for Gold/ Silver… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to end the day trading with a $91 handle… The POTUS was talking about IRAN yesterday and said that the U.S. had destroyed things… but, in my opinion, they haven’t destroyed the power of the minds of the Iranians… So, And the Strait of Hormuz is still zipped up like a winter coat on a sub 0 day and that leads me to believe that the price of Oil is going to eventually revisit $100…  UGH!

And the 10-year Treasury saw a bit of buying and the yield dropped to 4.78% yesterday… I guess I should have kept my mouth shut about it asking if it was going to 5%, eh?

But the U.S. Gov’t bond rout isn’t the only country experiencing a bond rout… I told the other day that Japanese 10-year’s yield had risen to 3%, the first time since 1996…  This from CNBC.com this morning: “Government bonds sold off globally on Wednesday, extending a rout that has driven borrowing costs to multi-decade highs.

Gold/ Silver continued to see daylight as both have rallied overnight, with Gold up $48 to start the day today, and Silver, up $52-cents… So, our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday might just turn out to be a good one for these two… 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to start this morning with a $91 handle in its price… And the 10-year saw a bit of slippage again last night and starts today with a yield of: 4.77% … yield control by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel must be the culprit here…  I still believe that the 5% yield on the 10-year is achievable… the charts even show this to be true, as that’s where they are heading, up and up and away (The 5^th Dimension)

 Circling the wagons on the bond rout… The yield on German 10-year bunds, the benchmark for the euro area, was 4 basis points higher at 3.378% on Wednesday — its highest level since 2011. Japan’s 10-year yield stood at 3.016%, after crossing 3% for the first time in three decades on Tuesday.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since November 2023 at 4.814%, as British 10-year gilts marked a fresh post-2008 high of 5.25%, before both retreated slightly.

Investors have been rattled by the resurgence of inflationary pressures, particularly as a fresh wave of conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher. That has added to longstanding concerns about the fiscal positions and high debt loads of major economies from the U.S. to Japan and France.”

But John Williams president of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel NYC, said “that here in the U.S. that it’s not a bond rout; the rise indicates that the economy is strong!” Yes, he actually said that on live TV… So, once again, idiocy comes to us from all angles… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar continued to get sold and the BBDXY starts this morning down 3 index points to 1,192…  Strong economy? I mean, it only leaves one to imagine where the dollar might have fallen to yesterday if not for the “invisible hand” saving the dollar from falling off the proverbial cliff…  The PPT in action folks… right before your eyes and mine one… 

There will be no Pfennig next Tuesday 9/8… I’ll be meeting with the doctor that will be performing the Mohs surgery on my cancer spot… So, once again a pop-up Dr. Appt comes my way… 

And it took about 3 weeks, but the euro finally rose back above 1.16… Let’s face it here, the euro as Frank said yesterday isn’t anyone’s idea of a perfect currency, but it retains its status as the offset currency to the dollar, and with that title comes strength when the dollar gets sold… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Trade Balance for July… And the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to see this morning…  Neither one is a major dollar mover most times that is… 

To recap… The ADP Employment Report and the Fed’s Beige Book split the duties of bringing the dollar down yesterday 3 index points in the BBDXY… Gold / Silver saw daylight yesterday, and that made Chuck happy… But, always keep in mind that the wolf is always at the door, ready to pounce on helpless sheeple…  I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… Tomorrow will be the final installment of Frank Trotter’s Currency Article title: What’s On The Other Side? A Serious Look At Currency Investing…  And can be found in its entirety here: https://battlebank.com/battle-bulletin/whats-on-the-other-side-of-every-trade-a-serious-look-at-currency-investing/?refid=10002

We pick his up with his discussion on currencies we as diversifiers would look to own with kiwi… here’s Frank

A Word About the Kiwi

New Zealand’s dollar is routinely comingled with the commodity currency bloc, filed alongside the Aussie and the loonie as if the three were interchangeable. The grouping is correct as far as it goes but misleading past that point. The kiwi is genuinely commodity linked: Dairy, meat and horticulture dominate exports, dairy auction prices move the currency, and China’s appetite sets the tone as New Zealand’s largest trading partner. But the kiwi’s commodities are soft, not hard. New Zealand sells protein and produce, not energy and metals, so it participates only partially in the hard-asset cycles that drive the loonie and the Aussie. Add a chronically deficit-prone current account, a small and shallow float, and a central bank with a history of aggressive swings, and the kiwi becomes the most fragile member of the family.

The year 2025 demonstrated the distinction. While the Aussie gained against a falling dollar, the kiwi actually lost ground, sinking a bit as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed its cash rate to 2.25% in response to a shrinking economy, a second-quarter GDP contraction of 0.9% and unemployment at a five-year high. Two commodity currencies, one dollar bear market, opposite outcomes. The lesson is that the commodity label is a necessary screen, not a sufficient one. The fiscal, monetary and external filters still have to be applied, and on those filters New Zealand currently fails where Australia passes.

Gold: The Currency Without a Central Bank

No serious discussion of currencies can end with paper. Gold is the one money in the system that no committee can print, and its price is best understood not as a commodity quote but as the inverse of confidence in the entire fiat complex. With that reading, the recent message is unambiguous. Gold surged roughly 65% in 2025, its largest annual gain in over four decades, and by mid-2026 it traded above $4,100 per ounce. Central banks, the same reserve managers that absorbed the 2022 lesson about the political conditionality of dollar assets, bought at elevated rates for a third consecutive year.”

Chuck again… tomorrow we’ll see the final installment of the article… Can’t wait! Well. Actually I can since I’ve already read the article in its entirety when it was first sent to me… 

Currencies 9/3/2026: American Style: A$ .7191, kiwi .5868, C$ .7243, euro 1.1607, sterling 1.3497, Swiss $1.2363, European Style: rand 16.0451, krone 9.3081, SEK 9.4399, forint 316.29, zloty 3.7252, koruna 20.8582, RUB 86.07, yen 156.12, sing 1.2682, HKD 7.8416, INR 94.69, China 6.7204, peso 17.01, BRL 5.0912, BBDXY 1,192, Dollar Index 99.12, Oil $91.61, 10-year 4.77%, Silver $65.97, Platinum $1,771.00, Palladium $1,385.00, Copper $660, and Gold… $4,435.00

That’s it for today… I’m juggling two articles in the air right now, and it’s too early in the morning for me to do that! But I think I have sorted it out now… My beloved Cardinals’ bats had come alive on Tuesday night, but went back to being absent last night for 5 innings. But they fought back and, in the end, they beat the mighty Dodgers in 10 innings.   Since there’s no Salary Cap in Baseball, a team, like the Dodgers, can pay the best players the highest money that’s in their coffers… Dire Straits takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Brothers In Arms… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please, oh Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• odds of a rate hike in Sept rise to ..68%
• The RBNZ hikes their OCR!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Day to you!  Well, if you don’t get my friend Dennis Miller’s weekly letter, you should sign up just so you can read what he wrote about this week…. It’s about being over medicated… And I know I am a prime candidate for that! So, if you are of the older set of people you could find out that you too are overmedicated! I couldn’t stay up for my beloved Cardinals game last night, but checked the score when I woke up in the middle of the night… and they had beaten the mighty Dodgers 13-6! The bats came alive! But now they have to face two of the best pitchers in the game for the next 2 games… UGH! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Song on the Radio… 

Well, the odds for a rate hike went higher yesterday, and ended the day at .68%… The dollar finally moved on the day, and the BBDXY gained 2 index points to 1,198… The odds had reached as high as 72% but calmed back down at the close. 

So, according to the odds makers, the rate hike is in the cards for this month, (not yet in my mind) but in their simple minds the believe it to be true, so I won’t stop them from believing it! And all those bad things I talked about that come with a rate hike will take place, maybe not immediately, but eventually we’ll see them creep up and take over the economy. Especially if the FOMC follows that Sept rate hike with another one at their next meeting 6 weeks later…

I’m beating around the bush talking about Gold/Silver this morning because the SPTs had a field day selling them short… Gold lost $124 and lost another figure on its price to close at $4,325… Silver lost $2.40 on the day to close at $64.24…  They did it! The successfully got the short sales to negate any attempt to physically buy Gold/Silver back into the game… It’s a real shame… But what’s a mother to do?

The price of Oil continues its march to higher levels with a $6 gain yesterday, with $3 coming after the early morning gain of $3, and closing with a $90 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury also continued to rise ending the day with a 4.80%… You don’t think that the 10-year would rise past 5% do you?   I wouldn’t put it past bond traders to match the FOMC’s rate hikes… The bond boys have been trying to get the Fed Heads off of their duffs and do something, and now that it appears to the odds makers that the Fed Heads will finally do something, the shackles have been removed from the bond boys and they can finally get bond yield where they feel they need to be… 

In The overnight markets last night…  There wasn’t much movement in any asset class overnight. The dollar remained at 1,198 in the BBDXY, the 10-year is still 4.80%, Oil is trading with an $89 handle, and Gold and Silver are pretty much flat so far, with them leaning toward positive gains today…  Besides a rate hike by the RBNZ, last night was what I would call a “nothing burger”… 

Remember a couple of months ago when I would complain that there was nothing but Strait of Hormuz news to be found? Well, now, its moved on to the odds of a rate hike… But soon, it will change once again to the fighting between the U.S. and Iran… As they both took time off from lobbying missiles at each other, so that they could refurbish their supplies…  And now the fighting starts again… 

I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not but the Aussie dollar (A$) has shaken of the disappointment of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaving rates unchanged at their last meeting, when I signs pointed to a rate hike coming, and has rallied nicely VS the dollar and its kissin’ cousin across the Tasman, kiwi…  So, if the A$ rallied on disappointment, what’s it going to do when the RBA does get off their duffs and hikes rates?  I can only imagine… 

My friends at FXSTEET.com posted this about Australia: “Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026 compared with the 0.3% growth in the first quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday. This reading came in stronger than the expectations of 0.3% expansion.”  

Chuck again… So, Australia’s economy is growing again, and if it picks up momentum then they’ll be right as rain… 

And looky there The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked their OCR (official cash rate) 25 Basis Points last night (Wednesday already for them) to 2.75%… Man, are they behind Australia there… 

I can tell you that one currency has not reacted favorably to the price of Oil rising again… And it’s a Petrol Currency!  The Russian ruble is going the opposite way that you would think they would go when the price of Oil rises about $10 in the last month!  They’ve tried to hike rates to the highest around, and they have Oil going their way, but they still can’t get past the war with Ukraine…. 

So, I would ask currency traders where they place the line of demarcation here… I mean the U.S. is in a war and yet the dollar gets bought, while the ruble gets sold…. 

The Petrol Currencies sans the ruble, are holding their ground VS the dollar, as the price of Oil rises again. The new leader of the pack (Shangra Las) is the Norwegian krone… Sorry ruble, but you’re in no condition to be the leader of the Petrol Currencies… Long ago in a galaxy far away, the U.S. sterling was the leader, but then that was lost to the ruble, who has now lost the title to Norway… 

Well, the Japanese yen was back in the news column yesterday, when U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent, said “neener, neener, neener, I know something that the markets don’t know” (ok I made up the first part, but he was boasting that he knew something the markets didn’t, and that is that the Bank of Japan is working on saving the yen… Well, in my opinion they can do anything they want to do, raise interest rates, allow Gov’t bonds to rise in yield (The 10-year JGB rose to 3% yesterday after this little ditty by Bessent, the first time since 1996!) and anything else they think of but… They can’t sell Treasuries to buy yen…  I think that was agreement made between the U.S. and Japan when the U.S. intervened on their behalf in late July… 

The games people play, every night and every day, never saying what they mean, never meaning what they say now… (Joe South) That’s the U.S. Gov’t in a nutshell, and has been the same going all the way back as far as can remember…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday saw Job Opening remain at 7.3 Million in August from July… Today, we’ll see the color of the ADP Employment Report for August… The forecasts are calling for just 47,000 jobs created last month… That’s not a good number… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar finally moved on the news that the odds of a rate hike in September had moved higher to .68%… Gold / Silver saw the SPTs in force show who’s the boss as they sold Gold/Silver short. Gold lost $124 and Silver lost $2.40… It’s gotten really bad, when will this short selling stop? And the Aussie economy is growing… And the RBNZ hiked rates 25 Basis points (1/4%) last night… 

For What It’s Worth… OK, this is the 4^th in the series that Frank Trotter titled: What’s on the Other Side of Every Trade? A Serious Look at Currency Investing

And yesterday we stopped at: one Currency doesn’t make a diversification and we pick it up there… And as always you can find the article in its entirety here: https://battlebank.com/battle-bulletin/whats-on-the-other-side-of-every-trade-a-serious-look-at-currency-investing/?refid=10002 and while you’re there you can sign up for a Battle Bank account!

“What Actually Drives Relative Currency Values

Currency prediction has a deserved reputation for difficulty over short horizons. Over multiyear horizons, relative valuations generally respond to identifiable forces, and the investor’s job is to weigh them together rather than fixate on any one factor. And yes, I’ll use the word “relative” often since that’s the key element.

Relative inflation. Purchasing power parity is a poor timing tool and a good anchor. Persistent inflation differentials eventually pull exchange rates toward lower inflation. A currency whose domestic purchasing power erodes at 4% annually while another erodes at 1% fights a three-percentage-point headwind every year until the differential closes.

The relative fiscal situation. Deficits matter as a percentage of GDP, and they matter more when they’re structural rather than cyclical. A government borrowing 6% to 7% of GDP at full employment, as the United States has been doing and is forecast to do, is signaling that the gap will be closed by growth it cannot manufacture, austerity it will not choose or monetary accommodation it will eventually demand. Markets price that third possibility into the currency. Much of the dollar’s 2025 slide traces to exactly this reassessment of American fiscal credibility.

The relative national debt position. Flow is the deficit; stock is the debt. Gross debt above 100% of GDP does not doom a currency immediately, as Japan long demonstrated, but it removes room for error and raises the temptation toward financial repression, where rates are held below inflation to erode the debt quietly at the expense of anyone holding the currency. Countries with low debt ratios retain policy freedom, and policy freedom is what a currency holder is ultimately buying.

The global view of risk and credit standing. Currencies carry reputations. The franc and yen have historically attracted crisis capital; the dollar did, too, until recently. That reputation is now shifting under the dollar’s feet. In early 2026, Deutsche Bank’s head of FX research went so far as to call the dollar’s safe-haven status a myth, observing that the dollar has decorrelated from equity sell-offs. The freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 taught every reserve manager on earth that access to dollar assets is conditional on political alignment, and the resulting migration into gold and alternative reserves is a slow-moving repricing of American credit standing with years left to run.

Total float and share of global economic activity. Liquidity is a value in itself. The dollar and euro dominate global payments and reserves, which grants them a durability premium and their holders an exit door in any crisis. Smaller floats like the krone swing more widely precisely because the pool is shallow. One possible strategy is to hold the deep currencies for stability and the shallow, well-governed ones for value and size positions accordingly.

Interest rate differentials. In the short run, this is often the dominant driver. Capital flows toward yield, and a currency where local rates are relatively higher, combined with sober fiscal and other financial management, tends to appreciate against a currency backed by a low-rate environment. Following the Federal Reserve’s 2025 cuts, Norway emerged as the highest-yielding G10 currency, a fact State Street cited in maintaining its positive stance on the krone. But rate differentials are the weather, while the fundamentals above are the climate. Chasing carry into a deteriorating currency is how investors get paid in pennies and charged in dollars.

Where We Have Felt Confident: Commodity Producers and Fiscal Adults

Applying the above filters over the years has repeatedly led us to the same short list: currencies of countries that produce real things the world must buy and countries that run their public finances like adults. Sometimes the same country checks both boxes.

The Norwegian krone. Norway is the developed world’s cleanest expression of fiscal responsibility paired with good fortune in terms of natural resources. Its sovereign wealth fund, built from oil and gas revenue, exceeds $1.7 trillion for a nation of 5.5 million people. The state is, in net terms, a creditor of historic proportions. The krone spent much of the past decade undervalued and out of favor, then gained about 13% against the dollar in 2025 as energy revenues, top-of-class G10 yields and the dollar’s troubles converged. A shallow float means volatility, but the underlying balance sheet is the strongest in the developed world.

The Australian dollar. Australia exports iron ore, natural gas, coal, gold and food into Asia’s growth, and its public debt ratio remains modest by G7 standards. The Aussie is a classic commodity currency, rising with global risk appetite and resource demand. It lagged the European currencies in 2025, gaining mid-single digits, then extended toward the 0.70 to 0.71 range in early 2026 as the Reserve Bank of Australia held a firmer line than the Fed and commodity prices stayed elevated.

 The euro against the U.S. dollar. The euro is nobody’s idea of a perfect currency, and skeptics like Doug Casey dismiss it outright as a committee construction of bankrupt welfare states. But currency investing is relative, and the relevant question is not whether the euro is sound in the abstract but whether the eurozone’s aggregate fiscal position, external balance and monetary conduct compare favorably with America’s right now. On deficits, the comparison currently favors Europe. The euro’s 13.1% gain in 2025, carrying it to an all-time high in trade-weighted terms, reflected that relative judgment, along with the sheer depth of euro markets as the only alternative parking lot for reserve-scale capital.

The Swiss franc. Switzerland pairs perpetual current account surpluses with low public debt, low inflation and an institutional culture that treats debasement as a moral failing. The franc gained over 14% against the dollar in 2025, extending a century-long record of relative appreciation. Counter to the interest rate differential argument, the cost of that virtue is near-zero yield and a central bank that periodically resists further strength. What the franc pays is preservation, and over long stretches, preservation against the dollar has been worth several percent a year all by itself.”

Chuck Again… Tomorrow, we’ll pick it with kiwi… hasn’t this been a real eye-opener for you regarding currencies?  

Market Prices 9/2/2026: American Style: A$ .7139, kiwi .5821, C$ .7180, euro 1.1580, sterling 1.3485, Swiss $1.2278, European Style: rand 16.0913, krone 9.3332, SEK 9.6823, forint 317.66, zloty 3.7368, koruna 20.8949, RUB 86.96, yen 159.76, sing 1.2733,  HKD 7.8426, INR 94.97, China 6.7222, peso 16.99, BRL 5.1536, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 99.79, Oil $89.63, 10-year 4.80%, Silver $64.36, Platinum $1,739.00, Palladium $1,341.00, Copper $660, and Gold… $4,327

That’s it for today… Well, I learned a bit more about the cancerous spot on my head yesterday. Soon I’ll be going to have a Mohs surgery on it… Not a biggie, no worries on my part, my head has had so many cuts and wounds on it, with the first one being a fence wire stuck in my head when I was about 10… and the list goes on… Hey! Maybe that iron fence wire is the cause of the way I reason things out and think? HA! I kept that to myself all these years, thinking that someone would think that’s why I am what I am!   I didn’t get any stitches; my mom just cleaned it out and put a bandage on it… but it was in my head quite a bit!  Sorry, didn’t mean to freak you out there… 10CC Takes us to the Finish Line today with their song: I’m Not In Love… I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday, no matter what the SPTs have going on today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler