Author: admin

• The dollar gets sold yesterday but comes back overnight
• Rate hike or not, you decide…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September.. How many readers caught my, “I’ll see you in September in yesterday’s close?”  Well, one of the spots on my head did turn out to be cancerous… So, some cutting and scraping is in my future… Always a good time going with me! NOT! My beloved Cardinals limped out to LA to play the mighty Dodgers, with night games that I won’t be able to stay up for, even on steroids! Simple Minds greet me this morning with their song; Don’t You Forget About Me    

Well, sometimes I do feel like everyone forgets about me… But then that’s what I get for retiring…. UGH!

I wish the SPTs would forget about Gold/ Silver FOREVER! Yesterday that were taking their pounds of flesh from the two metals, when  funny thing (not funny ha-ha) happened on the way to the forum… Gold/Silver fought back with some strong rallies heading in the close… But Gold fell short and ended the day down $7 while Silver, gained 17-cents. Gold closed at $4449 and Silver at $66.67…

The SPTs decided that they needed to keep the rallied at a minimum and have gone right back to work at the open this morning selling Gold short by $65 and Silver by $1.68… I can hear those dastardly evil beings all laughing and saying, “let’s see them rally their way out of this”… UGH!

The dollar saw it drop by 2 index points yesterday, but has gained 1 of them back to start our day… The BBDXY sits at 1,197, which to me is interesting because it was announced yesterday that the odds of a FOMC rate hike in Sept had risen from 57% on Friday, when all the damage was done, to 66% yesterday… But the dollar’s gain was limited… Hmmm… These are things that make you go Hmmm (sorry Grant Williams, I just had to use that!)  

What will these dollar traders do if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged in Sept? They will genuflect and then cough up a few index points but, point to the next FOMC meeting for their cure to the feeling in their stomachs… 

And don’t think that it hasn’t happened before, when the odds pointed to a rate move only to have the FOMC disappoint. I don’t have enough fingers to count on how many times this happened in the past… So, mull that over a bit, toss it around in your mind, and then come out with your own idea of whether the FOMC will hike rates or not… 

I mean they didn’t just say, “We’ll be hiking rates at the next meeting”… Warsh beat around the bush and said, ” He stated that policymakers must be confident inflation is clearly returning to the 2% target, warning that otherwise the central bank has “work to do” Now, I ask the question again, do you really think the FOMC is going to hike rates a couple of weeks?

Because if you’re like me and on the fence about this stupid rate hike business, then you’ll want to back up the truck and look to buy Gold/Silver and currencies you can, because they should come storming back once the writing is on the wall… I’m just saying… 

And in the overnight markets last night, the dollar bumped higher to 1.197, and Gold/Silver got whacked again… I truly don’t believe this is the end of the commodity rally… The price of Oil rose again overnight and starts today trading in an $87 handle… While the 10-year Treasury also bumped up overnight and starts today at 4.78% yield.

I normally get up in the morning walk over to my writing desk and turn and put all my devices on chargers, turn on my iPad and tune into my music and then turn on my laptop, and immediately go to my currencies page to see what the euro is doing… For if it’s up then the dollar is getting sold, and vice-versa… This morning, I viewed the euro, and it was up, and so I thought, OK, the rest of the currencies are following along… BUT NOOOOOO! They were not following the euro’s lead, so currency traders are not following the normal script… Yet… But maybe the euro is trading on its own devices… 

No way the euro is a creature of a kind, the kind that attaches itself as the offset currency to the dollar, and that’s that! So, whatever is on the currency trader’s minds this morning is the $64 question…

I see that I was bang on once again regarding the Intervention in Japanese yen and its return to being sold again… The yen trades at 160 this morning, right back where it was when the $10 Billion of euros were sold to buy yen by the U.S. Treasury… I reasoned that first and foremost, intervention rarely ever makes a dent in market perception, and second that Japan is a basket case… And it wouldn’t take long for traders to get right back to selling yen once the dust cleared…

I think I stated that I wouldn’t tough yen with your ten-foot pole! And still won’t! 

Circling the wagons on dollar and FOMC talk again… This Friday, we’ll see the BLS’s Jobs Jamboree… Tomorrow, we get a hint from the ADP Employment Report, but that’s just a hint, not a harbinger…  But the BLS Jobs Jamboree will hold the hammer on whether the FOMC sees that rates need to be hiked now or not, in my humble opinion… For, if they are weak, then the rate hike gets put on the back burner to simmer some more, but if the BLS sees fit to lie to us once more and show they are strong, then the rate hike’s heat gets turned up… That’s my Pfennig for Your Thoughts today… 

Today’s U.S. Data Cupboard has the ISM for August, and it’s forecast to slip a bit from 53.9 to 53.5… No biggie… And certainly not a market mover or FOMC mover… We’ll also see the labor report of how many job openings there were in August… Should be about 7.4 Million… Tomorrow, like I said, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report… Can’t wait! NOT!

To recap, the SPTs are taking their pounds of flesh again, and seeing if the physical buyers can rally Gold/ Silver today… The dollar remained around were it went to last Friday, when the FOMC rate hike odds were .57%, when they rose to .66% yesterday,… Chuck thinks that’s interesting for sure.. 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is part 3 of Frank Trotters’ article on diversification and currencies that can be found in its entirety here: https://battlebank.com/battle-bulletin/whats-on-the-other-side-of-every-trade-a-serious-look-at-currency-investing/?refid=10002

We left off yesterday with the thought that currencies are not in your portfolio to make you rich… They are there to contribute to a diversified portfolio, and to protect you a bit from a falling dollar… 

So, we pick it up: “One Currency Is Not Diversification

Here’s the uncomfortable arithmetic for the typical investor. Own the S&P 500, a bond ladder, a money market fund and a house, and you may believe you’re diversified across hundreds of positions. But measured in currency terms, for the most part you own one position at 100% weight. Since nearly every asset you hold is priced in this currency, and your future liabilities are denominated in it, the concentration feels natural. But it is still concentration.

The argument to ignore currencies writes itself when the dollar is strong, as it was for most of 2011 through 2024. During those years, unhedged foreign exposure was a drag, and dollar concentration looked like wisdom.

But then 2025 arrived with a new administration and new policies, and the same concentration subtracted double digits of global purchasing power in 12 months. Morningstar noted that through September 2025, the dollar had depreciated 13.1% against the euro and about 14% against the franc. An American with no foreign currency exposure did not avoid the currency market that year. They simply took the losing side of it, in size, without ever placing the trade consciously.

What Actually Drives Relative Currency Values

Currency prediction has a deserved reputation for difficulty over short horizons. Over multiyear horizons, relative valuations generally respond to identifiable forces, and the investor’s job is to weigh them together rather than fixate on any one factor. And yes, I’ll use the word “relative” often since that’s the key element.

Relative inflation. Purchasing power parity is a poor timing tool and a good anchor. Persistent inflation differentials eventually pull exchange rates toward lower inflation. A currency whose domestic purchasing power erodes at 4% annually while another erodes at 1% fights a three-percentage-point headwind every year until the differential closes.

The relative fiscal situation. Deficits matter as a percentage of GDP, and they matter more when they’re structural rather than cyclical. A government borrowing 6% to 7% of GDP at full employment, as the United States has been doing and is forecast to do, is signaling that the gap will be closed by growth it cannot manufacture, austerity it will not choose or monetary accommodation it will eventually demand. Markets price that third possibility into the currency. Much of the dollar’s 2025 slide traces to exactly this reassessment of American fiscal credibility.

The relative national debt position. Flow is the deficit; stock is the debt. Gross debt above 100% of GDP does not doom a currency immediately, as Japan long demonstrated, but it removes room for error and raises the temptation toward financial repression, where rates are held below inflation to erode the debt quietly at the expense of anyone holding the currency. Countries with low debt ratios retain policy freedom, and policy freedom is what a currency holder is ultimately buying.”

Chuck again… I very good piece by my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, the head honcho at Battle Bank… I aways say that a currency is the stock of a country… You look at it the same way you do your due diligence on a stock you’re interested in buying…. 

Market Prices 9/1/2026: American Style: A$.7146, kiwi .5897, C$ .7206, euro 1.1597, sterling 1.3536, Swiss $1.2305, European Style: rand 16.1526, krone 9.3336, SEK 9.5877, forint 315.95, zloty 3.7362, koruna 20.8299,   RUB 85.60, yen 160.06, sing 1.2731, HKD 7.8409, INR 94.95, China 6.7220, peso 16.99, BRL 5.1853, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.58, Oil $87.79, 10-year 4.78%, Silver $64.78, Platinum $1,774.00, Palladium $1,351.00, Copper $659, and Gold $4.384

That’s it for today… I really was wordy about the rate hike possibility this morning wasn’t I? I mean it just gets my dander up that this something that should have been done months ago, but the Fed Heads sat on their respective hands and did nothing…. absolutely nothing, say it again! (Edwin Starr) Had a great lunch with my classmates yesterday… They are all so funny to be around… And heat has returned to our area with the high today to be 101…Too hot for me to sit outside and read, so no Vitamin D for me today! The next three days are supposed to be over 100, so it looks like I’ll be stuck inside… UGH!  Mitch Ryder And The Detroit Wheels take us to the finish line today with their song: Jenny Take A Ride… A good oldie… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar rises on the PCE data
• Do I have a Treat for you today!

Good Day… and a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, have I got a treat for you today… You’ll find it in the FWIW section, but… no skipping ahead…. Do Not pass Go, do not receive $200… I’m finally getting over my stomach problems, thank God! First, I had a nasty cold, and that went right into stomach problems, I can’t catch a break! Oh, woe is me, right? Hey! I lived through it and what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger!  To greet me this morning is the band Live… and they are playing one of my fave songs: Lightening Crashes

In the early 2000’s, I listened to Live’s CD Throwing Copper so much that I think I wore the CD out! Oh, those were the days… We had just started Everbank and it felt alike lot the wild west…  I’m beating around the bush here because, the dollar rose yesterday on false pretenses, and that’s all I’ll say about that…. (not really, you know me too well) 

OK, here we go.. The dollar gained 2 index points yesterday and at one point it was up 4 index points in the BBDXY before calmer heads took over… The dollar gained after a slew of data, especially the PCE showed that inflation still rose, but that lighted the rate hike lovers fire and the dollar was off…. of course, the Fed Heads need to hike rates, but traders all acted like this was the first time they heard that! 

Oh my! The Fed/Cabal/Cartel is going to hike rates what’s a mother to do? Well, they bought dollars…. 

Gold tried to fight the SPTs but had no luck and ended up losing $64 on the day and drop below $4,600 at $4,595… Silver attempted the same thing but was taken to the wood shed by the SPTs and it lost 37-cents to close at $68.24… The new lines in the sand are $4,600 for Gold and $69 for Silver… Let’s see how long it takes for the physical buyers to take those lines in the sand out… 

The price of Oil saw some non-believers of the fake story that was going round and caused the price see some weakness, but the trend and buy Oil and see its price rise to $81.69… The 10-year Treasury bond didn’t see any “yield control” and so the selling returned with the yield rising to 4.66%

In the overnight markets…. the dollar didn’t move off of the 1,194 figure it closed yesterday… But Gold/Silver has had the snot kicked out of them by 1. The SPTs and 2. The rising PCE

Gold is down $6 to start our day but added to yesterday’s loss Gold is down $72 and that’s significant…. Silver too, is down this morning, this time it’s 37-cents… Copper too got whacked… but else is new?

So, the PCE got higher in July… And the Fed Heads are still not of the frame of mind to hike rates…. But the bond boys are, as the 10-year’s yield firmed yesterday and overnight.. This morning its yield sits at 4.67%…

And the price of Oil is gaining more non-believers of the bag-o-lies the U.S. told regarding 15 tankers leaving the Strait, when observers said that there weren’t any tankers leaving…  The price of Oil has an $82 handle to it this morning… 

So, they tell me that the PCE (the fed head’s favorite inflation calc) rose to 3.7% and still not a word about inflation rising from the leaders of this country….  I just don’t get it… 

The dollar should be getting beaten like a rented mule because the Fed is sitting on their respective hands, but it’s not… And this is the time you’d be on the ball if you’ve already diversified your investment portfolio with currencies and metals…. But for those of you haven’t diversified, you still have time, and this little dollar blip upward would be an excellent time… I just saying… 

I’ll end this here, as my thought that my stomach problems were over was that, just a thought… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed July Durable Goods Orders were up 1.1% (That’s good) and the PCE… Oh, and the 2^nd QTR GDP remained at 1.5%… Maybe, just maybe because you never know (Andujar) the second QTR will be better… 

To recap.. The dollar got some wind its sails when the PCE showed that rate cut will be in the cards at the next meeting, as it rose to 3.7%…  and the belief that 15 tankers made it out of the strait, as the U.S. claims, is becoming a statement that people cannot believer.. 

For What it’s Worth… This is a great article written by my good friend, and former Big Boss, and now the head honcho at Battle Bank, Frank Trotter.. It’s long so I won’t be able to give you all of it, so you’ll have to go here to read the rest, and trust me, you’ll want to! https://battlebank.com/battle-bulletin/whats-on-the-other-side-of-every-trade-a-serious-look-at-currency-investing/?refid=10002

Or, here’s your snippet, that will be just a tongue wetter but what I have is good!  Here’s Frank:

“Every investor holds a currency position, whether they know it or not.

For example, an American who keeps everything in U.S.-dollar-denominated stocks, bonds and bank deposits has made a concentrated bet on a single piece of paper issued by a single government. For most of the past 15 years, that bet paid off handsomely and invisibly. In the early 2000s and over the past few years, it stopped paying.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell roughly 9.5% in 2025, its worst annual performance since 2017, and it posted the weakest first half since 1973. The euro gained about 13.1% against the dollar, the Swiss franc over 14% and the Norwegian krone over 13%. Investors who assumed currency was background noise discovered it was a very loud instrument.

This Battle Bulletin is about treating currencies as what they are: a distinct asset class with its own drivers, its own risks and its own role in a properly diversified portfolio. This is not a case for speculation or leverage. It is a case for understanding relative value among the world’s major monies and for refusing to let one government’s fiscal choices determine the fate of everything you own.

Of course, all investments carry risk of loss. The value of stocks, bonds, currencies and precious metals can decline. This bulletin is a backgrounder for your consideration, not a personalized recommendation. Discuss this with your financial advisor and always do your own research prior to making any investment.

Let’s Start With the Investable Universe

Not all currencies deserve consideration. Of the roughly 180 circulating currencies in the world, the serious investor should confine attention to the 20 or so largest. Within that group, your focus is best allocated to currencies that float with relatively little management. The currency’s price tells you something only if the price is allowed to move. The Chinese renminbi trades inside a band administered by the People’s Bank of China. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged. The Saudi riyal is pegged. The Danish krone shadows the euro by design. Whatever their other merits, these currencies are policy instruments, and holding them means trusting a bureaucracy to maintain an arrangement that history says bureaucracies eventually abandon, usually at the worst possible moment for the holder.”

Chuck Again… On second thought, I think I’ll use some more of this article for Monday and every day after that as long as it takes! I’ve always told Frank he was an excellent writer… 

Market Prices 8/27/2026: American Style: A$ .7191, kiwi .5949, C$ .7209, euro 1.1642, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $1.2423, European Style: rand 15.9912, RUB 86.34, yen 159.43, sing 1.2717, HKD 7.8383, INR 95.54, China 6.7210, peso 16.98, BRL 5.1483, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 99.19, Oil $82.21, ten-year 4.67%, Silver $68.22, Platinum $1,826.00, Palladium $1,338.00, Copper $6.66, and Gold… $4,589

That’s It For Today and this week… I’m really not of myself this morning, I can’t seem to concentrate on anything, my mind is taken up by what’s wrong with my body now…. This is getting ridiculous! My beloved Cardinals took another one on the chin last night… Maybe all the naysayers that said the Cardinals would be a very bad team this year, are finally getting some love…. and now… I have connection problems! UGH! I never seem to come out on top…. Iron Butterfly takes us to the finish line today with their very long song: In-A-Gadda-DA-VIDA… A classic rock song for sure! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

• the dollar is drifting awaiting data today I guess…
• Oil is caught up in a fish tale…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Again, I apologize for yesterday’s surprise very shortened letter…  The dermatologist cut two of the growths on my head off to send off for biopsies, and froze the others, for now…. We’ll see what the biopsies say…. Jackson Brown greets me this morning with his song: Ready Or Not…

I sure wasn’t ready to have the doctor cut those two growths off. Even trying to numb them they hurt like… Well, they hurt!  The dollar couldn’t find terra firma yesterday, and it slid to 1,192 in the BBDXY… 

Gold found a way to gain on the day but had to live with a lot of SPT’s doing their thing… Gold gained $7 to close at $4,659 and Silver saw the same path to gaining on the day that Gold did… Silver gained 58-cents to close at $66.80

The 10-year Treasury is seeing some buying and bond traders have taken the news from the Gulf, hook, line and sinker… Apparently the U.S. told the news agencies that 15 tankers made it through the Strait, but the counters there deny the news…. 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar continued to drift… Only this time it gained 1 index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,1192… Gold is seeing some big time selling this morning, must be the SPTs out early, eh? Silver is flat to up some pennies, and it looks like they will be dependent on the data today… 

The price of Oil remained trading with an $80 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury has to shake off that situation I described above… its yield starts the day at 4.63%

My friend and editor of the 5 Bullets letter, David Gonigam, agrees with me that the STUPID CPI is just that. Of course, he doesn’t say that exactly, but he titled Bullet 1 yesterday “The totally Fake Inflation Numbers”…  In this bullet he had a piece of the great John Williams of Shadow Stats and now I’m going to borrow them…. 

“Starting in 1980, there have been about 20 changes” to the way CPI is calculated, said Mr. Williams.

“Every change has lowered the CPI compared to how it would have been calculated before.”

As you might recall if you were around then, inflation felt out of control in late 1979 and early 1980.

The peak was a staggering 14.6% in March 1980 — when Pink Floyd topped the charts with “Another Brick in the Wall, Part II” and Dustin Hoffman was the big box office draw in Kramer vs. Kramer.

Key point: Inflation rates that high threatened to destroy the Social Security program in short order: No way could it keep up with cost-of-living adjustments that steep.

And so began that process of 20 changes in the way the official inflation rate is calculated, every one of them bringing the number down.”

Chuck Again… you know I call them “hedonic adjustments”…  Oh, and by the way the BLS says inflation is 3.4%, but calculating them the way they were calculated in 1980 before the hedonic adjustments, John Williams says inflation is actually 11.4%…  The BLS wants you to believe that inflation is getting better….  Yeah, right!

One of the 20 adjustments made was that the BLS would substitute items in the basket they used that had gotten too expensive and replace them with something cheaper, thus keeping inflation from rising…  great eh?

Oh, and guess what gets off the ground tomorrow? Give up? OK, it’s the big circus, the Jackson Hole boondoggle… Ok, this meeting of the minds( I use that loosely) has brought us rate cuts, QE, and Operation Twist through the years, so it’s not a waste of time, but in most years it’s simply a boondoggle… I’ll keep a lookout for any significant news here and report it next week… 

I need to go to the BIG Finish because that piece on inflation.. is making by blood pressure rise…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Case/Shiller Home Price Index for June and it increased, surprisingly to me, .5%… Today’s Data Cupboard has the July prints of Durable Goods, the 2^nd revision of 2^nd QTR GDP, and the PCE, the Fed Heads favorite inflation calculator… 

To recap… The dollar drifted most of the day, but did lose 1 index point, as Gold & Silver fought with the SPTs all day but did gain on the day, Gold by $7 and Silver by 58-cents… And Oil traders have taken a story by the U.S. hook, line and sinker to cause Oil to drop in price… 

For What It’s Worth… long-time reader, Bob, sent me a link to this story, and since so much has been talked about Bessent’s announcement last week to double down on bond buying, I thought it good for the FWIW today and it can be found here: Druckenmiller slams Bessent bond buyback plan as price management

Or, here’s your snippet: “The billionaire investor, an early mentor of the Treasury secretary, argued in a WSJ op-ed that governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose

Druckenmiller slammed Bessent’s bond buyback plan as “price management” doomed to fail.

Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire founder of Duquesne Family Office and an early mentor of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, called the Treasury’s decision to double long-end bond buybacks a “mistake” driven by “price management” that will ultimately fail.

In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published Monday, Druckenmiller argued that markets were correct to view last week’s announcement — which doubled long-end buyback lots to $4 billion — as an attempt to suppress yields rather than manage liquidity. The announcement came Wednesday, after the 30-year yield climbed to its highest point in roughly two decades; a brief rally followed before yields turned back up.

“Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose,” Druckenmiller wrote. “The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.”

Druckenmiller cautioned that any effort to hold down long bond yields could pull the Treasury into an escalating cycle of ever-bigger purchases, eroding the institutional credibility that underpins the market. He also noted the timing of the operations.

“These enlarged operations happen to run through the final stretch of a midterm campaign,” he wrote. “Debt management that even appears to follow the political calendar spends the one asset that took two centuries to accumulate: the credibility of the Treasury market. That asset doesn’t regain its value so easily.”

He disputed the Treasury’s framing of the buybacks as a liquidity tool, contending that nothing in current market conditions justified the intervention. Druckenmiller pointed out that the 10-year yield was roughly in line with nominal economic growth, a configuration he described as supportive of borrowing rather than a brake on it.

“The bond market wasn’t being a vigilante, as some would argue,” he wrote. “It was being a pushover that had finally begun to clear its throat, and Treasury moved to quiet even that.”

Druckenmiller, who worked alongside both Bessent and George Soros at Soros Fund Management, said the only durable path to lower long-term yields was deficit reduction, not buybacks. His prescription centered on restructuring entitlements — adjusting qualification thresholds, benefit formulas, and program eligibility in ways that would take effect gradually so as to cushion the impact on both beneficiaries and taxpayers.

“You can’t buy your way out of a solvency conversation with liquidity tools,” he wrote. “A credible fiscal package would do more for the long end of the curve than a buyback program 1,000 times this size.”

The Treasury did not respond to a request for comment, according to Reuters.”

Chuck Again… I know, I know that was a long snippet, but I wanted you to hear what legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller had to say…

Market Prices 8/26/2026: American Style: A$ .7186, kiwi .5959, C$ .7243, euro 1.1673, sterling 1.3683, Swiss $1.2442, European style: rand 15.9104, krone 9.3234, SEK 9.4941, forint 308.41, zloty 3.6801, koruna 20.5301,  RUB 84.15, yen 159.01, sing 1.2698, HKD 7.8383, INR 95.41, China 6.7220, peso 16.92, BRL 5.1456, BBDXY 1,192, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $ 80.48, 10-year 4.63%, Silver $68.87, Platinum $1,863.00, Palladium $1,356.00, Copper $6.80, and Gold… $4,628

That’s it for today… Well, now I sit and wait for the news on those biopsies that will be made… My darling daughter, Dawn, stopped by last night and came out back to talk to me… I was so pleased that she came out to talk to me… Normally, the kids would rather talk to their Mom than me….  My beloved Cardinals got thumped by the Orioles last night, it was ugly! I actually turned it off after it was 12-1…. I guess that’s what they call a game that you wash out of your mind and move on to today’s game…. Marmalade takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Reflections Of My Life….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I received word yesterday that my dermatologist had an opening this morning… So, I took it! I’ve had these spots on my head that won’t go away… You may recall me going through this a few years ago, and I thought they were gone…. But not to be… 

So, all I have time for this morning is to give you the recap from yesterday… I apologize, but, in my life I’ve found that when you need to see a doctor and the call you to come in, you go in… Period…

The dollar didn’t do much yesterday and spent the day at 1,193… Gold was going along very nicely and it was up over $60 when the SPTS decided it was getting too close to $4,700… and it closed at $4,652 up $48 on the day… Silver saw problems as soon as the SPTs arrived at their desks, and closed up 11-cents to $66.22

The price of Oil remained trading with an $85 handle, and the 10-year also remained at its price yesterday morning of a 4.71% yield… 

You’re on your own now… This is all I have time for this morning and believe me it’s quite early!

I’ll talk to you tomorrow, that is as long as they don’t find something awry….  with me, there’s always a possibility, but I doubt it this time…

I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Bessent sends the dollar down the slippery slope
• and gives Gold/Silver bugs freedom to gain!

Good Day… And Marvelous Monday to you! Well, things sure changed after the Treasury Sec. Talked last week… He certainly is a market mover! My beloved Cardinals come limping home after a 3-city road trip and falling flat on their faces in Philly… The weather cooled off to more temperate levels this past weekend… I got outside to read a bit, but I had a very ugly weekend health wise, as my stomach is now the things that’s causing me trouble… The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with their song: Can’t You Hear Me Knocking

I have a bit of other things to talk about first up this morning, so let’s get to them and then we can find out where the markets closed on Friday and the overnight markets… OK? Of course that’s OK, because I’m doing the writing!

OK, we HAVE to start off this letter with a brief dissertation on what the U.S. is doing now with regards to bonds… Treasury Sec. Bessent told the markets last week two things, and those two things really riled up the markets… First, he said that the Treasury will buy “double the amount of bonds”….  he’ talking about the 10–30-year bonds and he’s going to be doing QE on steroids… But only it’s not real QE because the money he gets to buy all those bonds won’t be by the creation of dollars by the Fed Heads, it will be from the sale of short-term bonds (At a loss) … 

I saw a quote by a pundit that said, “he’s applying a Band-Aid to a bullet wound” And that about wraps up his first statement to the markets… Oh, and the BBDXY dropped like a rock on his words…. 

The second thing he said was that “There’s nothing magic about the $40 trillion number, And we can grow our way out of that.”

Oh, my, what fantasy world does he live in? Didn’t the great Ronald Reagan say that he would get the economy to grow out of our debt then?” (that may have worked then because the debt was only $2.6 Trillion) 

Oh, and we did go over $40 Trillion last week and that was only 5 months after we reached $39 Trillion! 

So… as I told you things have changed… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,193… And Gold/Silver went on a buying rampage… Gold ended the week at $4,604 and Silver at $69.11

I’d like to think that Gold/Silver are now well on their second legs of their respective rallies…. But, I’ll have to see more buying and volume to sway me! 

And the price of Oil ended the week with an $87 handle, and so far, the yield of the 10-year is holding steady Eddie ahead of the double buying, the Treasury announced last week. The 10-year’s yield ended the week at 4.73%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold some more but in the early hours it came back and the  BBDXU sits at 1,193 to start the day/week..  Gold and Silver are at it again, and Gold is up $53 and Silver is up 24=cents to start the day and week… Ok, so I’ve seen enough, Gold/Silver are on their second leg of the rally now… so far there’s no sign of the PPT…  for the dollar, and that’s a good thing! 

The price of Oil slid a bit overnight and starts the day/week with a $85 handle, while the 10-year still is resisting the buying of the bond news and opens the week at 4.71% yield… 

Bessent must think about what he said regarding the $40 Trillion debt! 

I don’t think he really thinks the economic growth would wipe out the $40 Trillion debt… But, he had to say that to calm the markets down a bit before they sent Gold/Silver to the moon! And the dollar on a very slippery slope… 

Well, with the dollar losing ground faster than a speeding bullet, the euro has come back after getting sold for yen by the U.S. Treasury… The euro ended the week at 1.1678 and taking the rest of the currencies long for the ride… Shoot Rudy, even the Russian ruble had a good day for once in a Blue Moon…  Ahh, Blue Moon, you saw me standing alone. Without a dream in my heart, Without a love of my own….  What a great song!

The Aussie dollar (A$) was drifting after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left their Official Cash Rate (interest rate) unchanged at their last meeting, probably due to what the RBA though the A$ would do if they raised rates again…. Well, they didn’t have to raise them as the A$ has taken off to higher ground anyway! I think what’s probably going on here is Japanese investors doing a new carry trade, using the A$… 

Back in the last weak dollar trend, the carry trade using the A$ as the currency they borrowed… or bought outright…  saw the A$ go over $1.00 and it dragged kiwi along for the ride as it too was used because the interest rates in these two nations were much higher than in Japan… not to say that history will repeat here, but… it will be at the scene of the crime…

Of course, the dollar needs to be in a weak trend… and it appears that it is entering one… I know, I know I said they were entering one a month or so ago… And this could be just a return to the underlying weak trend… Either way, it’s going in the right direction considering our problem Debt and the financing of it… 

There’s always the PPT to put up roadblocks on the falling dollars….  That’s why I always say that Trend is not a ONE-WAY STREET! There can be volatility while the trend continues…  I say this to tell all that took my suggestion a month or so ago to begin to diversify, not to panic and sell your currencies when there’s volatility, you’ll hear about it first right here in the Pfennig!

And now… The POTUS is threatening to bomb… Bond sellers….  I’m not kidding here… the POTUS told a reporter last week : “We have many types of intervention. That’s one. The ultimate intervention is our military. And, uh, if we have to use that, we will.”

Oh my, oh my, oh my… I can’t say what’s going through my mind right now… But what did Einstein say about repeating something over and over again thinking that the end result will change?   I’m just saying…

Circling back for a minute on Bessent and the Treasury… I can’t believe that they can’t see that THIS is one of the reasons that the world keeps selling the dollar… The Treasury decided that this was easier than reducing the size of bond issuance (to finance the debt)…  Well, it took 5 months to go from $39 Trillion to $40 Trillion in debt… at that rate we would be at $50 Trillion by the time that Spring Training Starts!. I don’t think that will happen but there’s a chance… And you’re telling me that there’s a chance?  HA!

The U.S .Data Cupboard is a mixed-bag-o-data this week, with nothing really today or tomorrow, but Wednesday will be the pick day of the week with tons of data to print… So, the dollar isn’t going to get any help from a trumped-up data report so, the dollar is on it’s own today and tomorrow… And that could be a very bad thing for the dollar, in my humble opinion… 

To recap… Gold/Silver had banner days as the week went on last week, and on Friday Gold climbed above $4,600 and Silver above $69… The dollar got sold for a basket of hopes and lies…. The U.S. Treasury Sec. Said that the treasury will buy double the bonds issued in the future for the 10-30 year bonds…  This is not QE, from what they say… (whoever said that we can believe what they say!) They will sell short-term bonds to pay for the bonds they buy… So, no creation of dollars to pay for them…  Now, do we really believe this?

For What It’s Worth… So, that got me thinking about what will happen if the bond intervention fails to work? To bring yields back down? And then I saw this and you can find it here: The Treasury’s bond-market intervention isn’t working. So what comes next? | Morningstar

Or, here’s your snippet: “‘It’s fair to say that at some point – at some time – there will be a crisis,’ says billionaire John Arnold, a former star Enron trader and the founder of philanthropy Arnold Ventures

The Treasury Department’s efforts to calm the bond-market selloff haven’t yet worked as well as hoped.

You can’t just sweep $40 trillion in U.S. national debt under a rug and forget about it.

That’s the bond market’s message to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in recent days, following his sudden efforts to calm an alarming selloff in long-term U.S. government bonds that recently pushed yields up a two-decade high.

Bessent outlined plans to buy more long-dated Treasurys this fall, promised to use the agency’s large “tool kit” to support the market and talked of coming new measures to contain the growing U.S. debt load.

Now, the question for traders is whether anything will get done to manage America’s growing debt pile, or if the bond market ends up calling the shots.

“It’s fair to say that at some point – at some time – there will be a crisis,” said John Arnold, a billionaire former Enron energy trader and the founder of philanthropy Arnold Ventures.”

Chuck Again…  That’s a good question regarding the bond market ending up calling the shots… Because… They already are!

Market Prices 8/24/2026: American Style: A$.7161, kiwi .5961, C$ .7169, euro 1.1664, sterling 1.3633, Swiss $1.2464, European Style: rand 16. 0056, krone 9.3186, SEK 9.5029, forint 310.81, zloty 3.6740, koruna 20.6639,    RUB 83.22, yen 159.11, sing 1.2706, HKD 7.8366, INR 95.74, China 6.7238, peso 16.92, BRL 5.1496, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.98, Oil $85.39, 10-year 4.71%, Silver $69.35, Platinum $1,888.00, Palladium $1,371.00,    Copper $6.68, and Gold… $4,657

That’s it for today… I’m here all week so try the veal! Bessent is going to try his “toolkit”… Good luck! This is the last week of August, and with August being the last full month of summer, it’ll be time for the kids to go back to school soon…. When I was a young school child, we always went back to school the day after Labor Day… but these days? Some have already started! YIKES! What happened to family vacations? Aye, Aye, Aye…. The Moody Blues takes us to the finish line today with a song from their Seventh Sojourn album (one of my faves): Isn’t Life Strange…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar recovers for a short time
• Oil and euros move the krone…

Good Day… And a Wonder Dog Wednesday to you! My beloved Cardinals got back to winning last night in Cincinnati 3-0.. Good pitching , received timely hitting and that was that! I really don’t like the Reds because of the brawl they started with the Cardinals years ago… and the damage they did to our backup catcher who had to retire afterwards….  Ok, don’t get me all riled up so early, move on…. The temps have backed off BIG TIME here and I was able to sit outside and watch the game… Jo Jo Gunne greets me this morning with their song: Run Run Run…. 

Well, the dollar didn’t do much yesterday except gain 1 index point to leave it at 1,201 in the BBDXY… But the dollars lack of performance didn’t carry over to Gold/Silver as they were attacked right from the get-go yesterday by the SPTs who wouldn’t let up on their attack all through the day… Gold lost $85 and Silver lost $2.45… I would say that the SPTs had some pent-up frustration, that their last engineered attack on Gold/Silver didn’t scare away investors for Gold / Silver fought back to reach $4,400 and $65 respectively…. 

It’s really sad that they go through these engineered takedowns , don’t you agree? I mean, I’m holding on to my Gold/Silver for they haven’t shook me with these takedowns…  I’ve talked to folks through the years don’t believe these takedowns exist, that it’s just Gold/Silver holders selling at specific levels… I tell they, they may be selling, but they wouldn’t have the effect on the price like the SPTs do with their arms full of short contracts showing up at the window…. 

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday, to end the day trading with an $85 handle, and the 10-year Treasury, which had seen its yield rise to 4.74% yesterday morning, saw the Fed Heads implement some of their “yield control” and brought the yield down to 4.71%…. 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar got sold overnight, as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz just keeps getting darker…. I know, the dollar got bought while the war went on, but now things are clearer and minus a nuclear bomb the U.S. must pull out of the region and stop bleeding money that we don’t have….  So, the dollar sits at 1,198 this morning in the BBDXY… down 3 index points and looking very peeked…  Time for the PPT? Only the shadow knows that.. 

Well, the price of Gold is up $30 to start our day…  and Silver is up 26-cents…. The thing that gets me so riled up with the SPTs is that they have become so brazen in the takedown, and no longer attempt to fly under the radar… The SPTs just seem to do whatever they want and there’s no regulators that will stop them… 

The price of Oil remained trading with an $85 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is seeing some buying to start our day. I Know it’s strange but stranger things have gone on here… The yield to start our day is 4.69%… 

Regarding the SPTs, they didn’t let Copper get off free yesterday and they clobbered it to bring it to $6.52…  Just a week ago this metal was $6.79… The boys have really done to Copper that they’ve done to Gold/Silver for decades now…

There’s lots of articles out there regarding the yen intervention by the U.S… But, believe me that my description of what happened from day one is bang on (except the U.S. sold euros, not dollars to buy yen)  And that is that the U.S. seeing that Japan is the largest holder of Treasuries, and that they are liquid enough that they would be sold by the Bank of Japan to support the yen… And the U.S. couldn’t stand the thought of the BOJ selling their Treasury stash… So, the U.S. joined the BOJ and supported the yen… A lot of good they did, the markets will get back to selling yen as soon as the dust settles in the East….

And circling back to the dollar… Really, I mean let’s talk about the euro…  The Eurozone has their own debt problems but the pale in comparison to the U.S. and Japan, so when the dollar gets sold, the euro responds favorably first…  And I told you last week that it would take some time for the traders to get back to buying euros after $10 Billion of them were sold to buy yen…. And this morning, the euro has a 1.16 handle… So, I guess it’s time… 

And with the euro finally getting past the 1.15 level, it gives trades the freedom to buy Norwegian krone again… The krone is an Oil play, but they also are a euro-play… And when both the euro and Oil are in rally mode, the krone is bought by the truckload….  I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the July prints of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization… Industrial Production show at .2% growth… not a number I would write home about. Capacity Utilization was flat to down .01%, so Companies are not expanding their offices any time in the near future.. 

To recap…The dollar, just like it did last week, has now recovered all the ground it lost last Friday…  Gold & Silver got whacked good by the SPTs, as they attempt to get Gold/Silver as an investment non-gratis to investors…. I doubt it works for “real holders of the metals” and not the short timers who heard about Gold / Silver’s rises and wanted to take part in them…. 

For What It’s Worth… Well, it’s been awhile since I had the GATA folks send me something and now I have something for you… This is about the Global Economy and the Japanese yen, and it can be found here: Global finance still looks like a ‘giant Jenga tower’ propped up by a Japanese yen that’s in deep trouble | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market:

Or, here’s your snippet: “The first U.S.-Japan joint intervention in three decades aimed at boosting the yen has come and gone without doing much to ease anxiety in currency markets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s notepad suggested the U.S. bought $5 billion-$10 billion worth of yen, while Japan’s move topped $50 billion. The exchange rate initially strengthened to about 157 yen per dollar from nearly 164, but has since given back some gains and hovered around 159 on Friday.

To be sure, efforts to prop up the yen were seen as short-term measures to address the symptoms rather than the root causes of the currency’s weakness. Those include Japan’s massive debt that exceeds 200% of GDP, fiscal stimulus that is expected to worsen the deficit, and a central bank that has been slow to raise rates in the face of high inflation.

But given that the yen’s recent instability was enough to trigger the U.S.-Japan intervention, a key underpinning of global financial markets appears riskier.

“Now traders are watching the ‘yen carry trade,’ where cheap yen borrowing funds bets on higher-yielding assets worldwide, and wondering if it’s about to blow up,” Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote in a note on Tuesday. “The financial system right now looks like a giant Jenga tower with the yen as a load-bearing piece.” …

Chuck Again…  and to think that U.S. secretary Bessent basically fired a bazooka at the currency markets and that Bazooka hasn’t scared anyone against shorting yen… It’s basically wasted money… but don’t let that get to you Scott, better men than you have attempted to save the yen and they all have failed! 

Market Prices 8/19/2026: American Style: A$ .7074, kiwi .5879, C$ .7207, euro 1.1604, sterling 1.3554, Swiss $1.2342, European Style: rand 16.2545, krone 9.4029, SEK 9.5147, forint 314.33, zloty 3.7279, koruna 20.8271, RUB 84.99, yen 159.12, sing 1.2763, HKD 7.8416, INR 95.76, China 6.7391, peso 17.04, BRL 5.2190, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 99.57, Oil $85.80, 10-year 4.69%, Silver $63.67, Platinum $1,741.00, Palladium $1,315.00, Copper $6.52… and Gold… $4,365

That’s it for today and this week, as there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, and the next time I write to you is next Monday… Good friend Dewey came down and sat outside with me to watch the game last night… he’s normally not in town but was this time so got to catch up… and Thursday is not only infusion day for me, but it’s also the birthday of my darling daughter, Dawn… I remember when she was born and to this day she’s still tiny…. A lot like my Grandmother on my dad’s side…  She’s still pretty as can be, and so I hope she has a grand day! Billy Joe Royal takes us to the finish line today with his song: I Knew You When… I hope you have a Wonder Dog Day today and Please Be Good to Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar recovers its Friday losses
• The SPTs are at Gold/Silver again!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, they had a sweep in their hands, and then lost it… My beloved Cardinals won the first game VS the Reds but lost the nightcap, after blowing a 3-run lead… UGH! I caught up on my lost sleep from Sunday night yesterday…. And now I have two more days until I go and make up my infusion day… Yes, there won’t be a Pfennig on Thursday 8/20… Santana greets me this morning with his song: She’s Not There (a remake of a song but he does it best!)

Well, the follow through on the selling of the dollar didn’t last too long, as the dollar did gain a bit yesterday after spending the morning below 1,200 in the BBDXY. It finished the day at 1,200 on the mark….  Still down for the day, but not as bad as it was earlier….  The currency traders don’t want to go too fast with their selling of the dollar because when the PPT steps in and stops the slide of the dollar, they will get their beatings…

The price of Gold saw buyers early and often yesterday, and so it gained $40 to close at $4,417… And Silver followed Gold down the path the buyers laid and gained $1.73 to close at $65.90…. I want to mention something here and that is during the last mega rally for Gold/Silver, good friend Aaron said to me, “you know Silver has outperformed, on a percentage basis, Gold 7 of the last 10 years” I then looked it up and he was bang on! And so, I’ve kept that in the back of my mind all these years… 

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day trading with an $84 handle… And the 10-year remained at 4.71% yield yesterday… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The recovery of the dollar continued as the BBDXY picked up one index point overnight… This would be the time to pick up some currencies and metals in my humble opinion, and I have something for you later in the letter that will illustrate this opinion greatly! 

The SPTs are back at Gold/Silver again… And this time they are taking Copper with them… Gold is off this morning $24 and Silver is off 72-cents to start the day… I warned you, right, that the SPTs were still around and that they were just waiting to pounce… Gold/Silver’s recover will be checkered with days like today, but that just gives procrastinating investors a buying opportunity… 

The price of Oil remained trading with an $84 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury saw some additional selling overnight and it starts today with a 4.74% yield…   

You know the 10-year Treasury is important to everyone even if you don’t own a bond… The 10-year is used in pricing mortgage rates, and lots of other things that you use or deal with daily…  and last week’s auction of the 10-year wasn’t what you would call a walk in the park… Buyers were less than usual and the ones there demanded that the bond be issued with a higher yield….  The 30-year treasury bond saw the same kind of demands and had to raise its yield to the highest its been since 1971…  

1971, man I was still in H.S. And playing football…. Things seemed to be normal then for me, for little did I know that bond yields were as high as they were and back then they were on their way down from double-digit yields… Nowadays they are going the opposite way, and they are going up in yield… 

Circling back to rising yields… this means the interest we pay to the holder of the bond is going higher on new issued bonds… But guess who holds all those low yielding bonds from before bonds began to lose ground?  Well, my guess would be the banks, and the casino banks that are buyers of last resort at auctions….  So, let’s just say that banks own a ton of low yielding bonds…. well, that’s not a problem as long as they don’t need to sell them… Ask SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) . Who’s to say that tons of smaller banks (not the Casino Banks) have the word get out that they have tons of unrealized losses on their books… 

That could cause a run on deposits from depositors that fear the unrealized losses, and that would cause the bank to have to sell the bonds at a loss…  then unrealized losses become realized losses… And that my friend is Damocles Sword that hangs over banks….  Oh, and the size of their unrealized losses in total is $325.1 Billion, and that was at the latest calc of the number, it’s probably larger now…. 

Ok, I’m going to stop there, because this scares the bejeebers out of me while I write about it….  But if you want to know more click on this link and the guy will explain it all to you… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgNlK6xeDM0

The currencies, as a whole, dropped back to reload yesterday… In the morning they were ready to take off higher VS the dollar, but then the selling of the dollar abated, and so did the currencies’ rally….

Gold continues to get bought by the global Central Banks… This from Yahoo Finance: “a separate 2026 World Gold Council survey (2). It found 74% of respondents expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to fall over the next five years, while 89% expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the next year. A record 45% also expect to increase their own gold holdings.

The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) says it’s the first time its survey has found more central banks planning to reduce their dollar exposure over the next decade than increase it.”

Chuck Again… this was the first time that the Central Banks said that they would reduce dollar holdings instead of gathering them…. I find that to be a bad omen for the dollar… Don’t you?

If you answered yes, then where’s your diversification? If you’ve been a procrastinator and not diversified as of yet, no worries, there’s still time, and no time is better than today…. Central Banks are going to reduce their dollar holdings, Gold has become more held by Central Banks than dollars, and Chuck says that the dollar in trouble…  Couldn’t be a better time to diversify…. 

OK, you don’t need to be harped at by me this early in the morning, do you? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the July prints of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization…. The both were meh in June, and I don’t see what would make them more than meh in July, but I guess we’ll see, eh?

To recap… The dollar recovered a bit yesterday and overnight, so no follow through on the selling from Friday… The SPTs are at Gold/Silver again today and you can’t say that Chuck didn’t warn you that Gold/Silver’s recovery will be checkered…. And China’s economy is slowing, what does that mean for the U.S.?  

For What It’s Worth… I spent yesterday talking about how the 15^th of August was the day that we started Football Practice… But what was uber important was the fact that it market 55 years since Richard Nixon took Gold away from the backing of Gold…  it was only to be temporary according to Nixon… Yeah right! Anyway, David Gonigam had this piece in his letter yesterday and you can find it here: Gold and Great Nations | Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets

Or, here’s your snippet: “: Between the Vietnam War and LBJ’s Great Society programs, the national debt was mounting quickly. Foreign governments — especially France — were losing confidence in the U.S. dollar. Under the terms of the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, those governments were exercising their right to trade in dollars for gold.

Uncle Sam’s gold stash was dwindling quickly, so Nixon decided to “close the gold window.”

“Nixon said the suspension of convertibility was ‘temporary,’” recalls our macro maven Jim Rickards with some lesser-known history.

“I spoke with two of the officials present at Camp David with Nixon the weekend of the announcement, Paul Volcker and Kenneth Dam. They both confirmed to me that the suspension was meant to be temporary.

“The plan was to have a new Bretton Woods-style conference, devalue the dollar against gold (and against other currencies such as the yen, the Deutsche mark and French francs) and then return to the gold standard at the new valuations.

“The first part happened — there was an international financial conference in Washington, D.C., in December 1971 — but the rest did not. While the world was waiting for the conference, countries moved to floating exchange rates without reference to gold.”

Chuck Again… Thanks David, this was a good reminder of the dastardly thing that Nixon did to our country’s finances… he turned a creditor nation into a debtor nation in 15 minutes on TV…

Market Prices 8/18/2026: American Style: A$ .7106, kiwi .5879, C$ .7206, euro 1.1574, sterling 1.3522, Swiss $1.2310, European Style: rand 16.2232, krone 9.4222, SEK 9.5308, forint 314.74, zloty 3.7332, koruna 20.8866, RUB 84.99, yen 159.72, sing 1.2781, HKD 7.8434, INR 95.67, China 6.7433, peso 17.01, BRL 5.2014, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 99.66, Oil $84.92, 10-year 4.74%, Silver $65.18, Platinum $1,755.00, Palladium $1,344.00, Copper $6.65, and Gold… $4,393

That’s it for today… my son, Alex gave me a CD by Duane Betts, the son of the great Dickey Betts, for Father’s Day… I finally got around to listening to it last night… It’s got a country sound to it… When I first was given the CD, my wife said she had never heard of the singer and guitar player to which I didn’t see the CD plainly and a saw the D. Betts, and I said, it’s Dickey Betts of the Allman Brothers… And then I looked at it better and said, “On no, I’m wrong about that it’s his son!” The Atlanta Rhythm Section takes us to the finish line today with their song: Imaginary Lover… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets sold on Friday
• and for once there was follow through to start the week!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to hot and hotter St. Louis! We’ve been under a heat dome for a week now, and I’m getting cabin fever from not going outside to read!  My beloved Cardinals found their right-handed slugger…  And he was right under their noses! I had bad stomach all weekend, and finally yesterday it settled down…. I live with so many maladies that they run into each other! Christopher Cross greats me this morning with his song: Never Be The Same…

Well, the dollar got sold on Friday, and Retail Sales for July tumbled down the hill just like Jack and Jill…. The dollar closed the week at 1,201, and looking like it wanted to go further down, but luckily the end of the day Bell rung… 

Gold/Silver found some good bids on Friday, after suffering through an engineered takedown by the SPTs on Thursday… Gold was up $25 to close at $4,377. Silver was up 33=cents to close the week at $64.58. So, Gold/Silver found ways around the SPTs 4 of the 5 days last week… Their rallies from the massive shorts that were put on at the beginning of July are still around, its’s just that the ETF and Physical buying is kicking tail most days… and that’s a good sign…

But, I’m concerned…. Remember about a month or so ago when I told you that the short positions Gold & Silver had gone down? Well, that didn’t last long and the short positions now are greater than they were the last time the SPTs went after the two….  

My friend, Ed Steer, wrote about this and we’re going to listen to what Ed had to say Saturday…. Regarding Silver… Ed Steer had this bit of info on the shorts in Silver this past weekend…”Those 106 days that the Big 8 traders are currently short, represents about 3.5 months of world silver production, or 245.795 million troy ounces/49,159 COMEX contracts. That’s up a bit from the 238.555 million troy ounces/47,711 contracts from last Friday’s COT Report.”

Chuck again… Thanks Ed! Oh, and you can always find Ed at:  www.edsteergoldandsilver.com

So, that’s what concerns me… the SPTs didn’t build up those short positions just to look at their masterpiece!  

But, it’s somewhat like living each day… you could worry about crossing the street and getting hit by a bus….  You could worry about how aww. Forget about it, you know what I’m saying, We could worry about all the shorts, but they may never get executed….  

The price of Oil remained trading with an $82 handle on Friday, and the 10-year finished the week at a 4.69% yield…

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the follow up to Friday’s selling of the dollar was there last night… The BBDXY lost 3 index points and starts today/week at 99.42…. This was a good sign for further development in the selling of the dollar. 

The currencies all look as though they got out of their respective sick beds, except the Russian ruble, who doesn’t seem to get bought even when the price of Oil rallies… The Euro Wannabes are kicking tail and taking names later, which to me is a sign of further dollar weakness…

The price of Oil is up $11 to start our day/week, and Silver is up 83-cents… It will be interesting to see if the SPTs show up today or not…. The 10-year Treasury was left to its own devices and the yield has risen to 4.71% to start the day/ week.

According to MarketWatch.com the Hindenburg Omen is flashing a warning about stocks… Should you fear it? It is just a warning, but they said the same thing in 2008…. And that’s the other thing that concerns me regarding the Gold/Silver rally…  IF stocks crash, the margin calls would be getting sent out like Dear Santa letters…. And the only thing liquid they hold, to meet the call, is Gold/Silver… just keep that in mind….

So much for all my concerns, they may not materialize and mean a hill of beans…. 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me an email that describes how the European Union is joining the Chinese RMB payments system….  See, that’s what happens when you tick someone off so bad that they do things that hurt you… Remember the U.S. sold $10 Billion worth of euros to buy yen without even a wink and nod to the European Central Bank… 

And what has that buying done for the yen? The yen is already back to 159 and soon it will be 160 again, and all those funds used to buy yen will have been wasted…. And the euro seems to be getting its feet back under it again after having so much of it sold…. 

It appears that Wall St. is all in on risk assets these days, as the rate hike folks fade into the wallpaper… That means that not only you, me and the guy down the street, along with our friendly Centra Banks of the world, won’t be the only ones buying Gold… I’m just saying…

I have something for you in the FWIW section today regarding funding our Debt that is coming ever-so-close to $40 Trillion… YIKES! The higher the debt goes, the faster it rises, for it seems like it was just yesterday that we hit $39 Trillion… The cost to finance the debt is choking off funding other things and is becoming the albatross perched on the neck of Americans…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Empire Regional Manufacturing Index for us today… Not much… And since I overslept this morning because I was up with a bad stomach all night, the Empre report is out and showed a rise of 20 that surprised the markets and me! Tomorrow, we’ll see Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, now those are market movers…

To recap, the dollar got sold last Friday, thus marking two Fridays in a row where the dollar got sold going into the weekend, only to see it recover the following week… It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any follow through on the dollar selling today… The Hindenburg Omen is flashing; had we better beware? And Chuck has a lot of concerns regarding Gold/Silver’s rally… Sure hope he’s as wrong as wrong can be!

For What It’s Worth… Well, I found this perusing the internet on Saturday, while waiting for Joshua Baez to come up again and hit another home run!  This is about how the auctions that took place last week were absolutely awful, as the interest rates attached to the bonds had to be risen, thus the interest the U.S. will have to pay and if can be found here: Costliest U.S. bond sale since 2001 is investor warning to Bessent | Fortune

Or, here’s your snippet: “The US government sold 30-year bonds at the highest interest rate in a quarter century, a testament to investors’ demand for greater compensation to finance the nation’s growing deficit.

The yield at the $25 billion sale Thursday came in at 5.216%, the most since 2001, even as a drop in oil prices supported US debt in secondary-market trading. The sale, which was met with decent demand, follows the Treasury Department’s 10-year auction a day earlier that drew the highest financing cost at that tenor since 2007.

It’s a headache for President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ahead of midterm elections in November. Lofty government financing costs are already feeding through to the broader economy, after years of elevated inflation and government spending.

“Investors are being asked to absorb a growing supply of government debt globally at a time when deficits remain large, inflation uncertainty persists” and the Federal Reserve is no longer a major buyer, said Michal Stanczyk, portfolio manager for the global fixed income team at Allspring Global Investments.

“If investors continue demanding greater compensation for inflation and fiscal risks, long-term yields could move higher and away from 5% even if Treasury auctions remain well covered,” he said.

The Treasury’s concern appeared to be on show last week when it tweaked its debt-sales guidance in a way that opened the door to potential cuts to long bond supply. Meanwhile, investors are still not rushing to lock in yields at multi-decade highs, signaling a collective wariness that the selloff may not be over.

Representatives for the Treasury didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.”

Chuck Again…. Well, like I’ve said before higher yields are having a bad effect on U.S. finances..

Market Prices 8/17/2026: American Style: A$ .7171, kiwi .5919, C$ .7219, euro 1.1598, sterling 1.3565, Swiss $1.2360, krone 9.4090, SEK 9.4794, forint 312.94, zloty 3.7194, koruna 20.8677, RUB 84.89, yen 159.26, sing 1.2784, HKD 7.8457, INR 95.61, China 6,7414, peso 17.01, BRL 5.2095, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 99.42 Oil $82.62, 10-year 4.71%, Silver $65.41, Platinum $1,767.00, Palladium $1,345, Copper $6.71, and Gold… $4,388

That’s it for today…  That was really something to see Saturday, Cardinals’ Joshua Baez hit 3 home run in his first 3 at-bats in the major league…. And then the fans in Chicago gave him a standing ovation when he lined out in his final at bat…. Saturday was the 15th, and that day will live with me forever, for that was always the first day of football practice, most times 2 x a day, and sometimes 3 x a day in the summer heat…. It’s been over 50 years since I last played football, and well my body aches each 8/15…. REO Speedwagon takes us to the finish line today with their song: Like You Do… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar recovered all of its Friday losses yesterday
• The U.S. decides to play with paper

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! All ends well for my beloved Cardinals yesterday as they beat a great pitcher and the Phillies 7-1… They won 2 of 3 from the team ahead of them for the playoffs… So, a step in the right direction…  It was very hot here yesterday, thus making that 3 consecutive days of dangerous heat… I like it hot, but this is too hot for even me!  So, I haven’t been outside to read, and I feel like something’s awry… The Friends of Distinction greet me this morning with their 60’s song: Grazing In The Grass

So, all the thoughts of a rate cut, have just about disappeared, and with it so does the beating down of the dollar… The dollar gained 1 index point yesterday and now has gained back all the index points it lost last Friday as it closed yesterday at 1,204… I knew in my heart of hearts that the loss the dollar took last week wouldn’t last long, as it was built on a house of cards, thinking that they might be a rate cut…. 

The price of Gold gained yesterday, but Silver couldn’t find a bid as the SPTs took it down for the day by 40-cents… Gold gained $41 on the day and closed at $4,410… Silver closed at $65.41… Still even with the STPs doing their business with Silver, Silver has recovered nicely from where the SPTs sent it a couple of weeks ago… 

The SUPID CPI played with the markets some yesterday… In July, the quants calculated that the STUPID CPI came in at 3.4% VS last year, that’s a .1% drop, but the monthly STUPID CPI had gained .1%, so if I were their boss and they came to me with these levels, I would ask them to explain how in the hell did the monthly rate go up .1% the VS a year earlier it fell .1%?  After stumbling around and hemming and hawing they wouldn’t have an answer because they didn’t know….  

So, the annual rate of 3.4% played with the rate hike folks… And made them question their status, and that helped Gold to gain.. ‘

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar ran into a roadblock and saw some selling with the BBDXY down 1 index point at 1,203 this morning… The dollar could be subject to a lot of back and forth in its price today, as the data cupboard is interesting…  

Gold/Silver are seeing some selling this morning, as the SPTs are at it again… Gold is down $25 and Silver is down 41-cents to start the day, with the SPTs working on their shorts to affect the prices negatively. 

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight and starts today with an $81 handle. And the 10-Year  remained at 4.66% yield overnight. 

I saw this on Zerohedge.com “With mortgage rates rising and the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy leaving many anxious about their household finances, the ugly spring selling season has not been followed by a consistent rebound in existing home sales in the U.S.

After falling 1.4% MoM in June (revised up from a 2.4% MoM decline), U.S. existing home sales fell again -1.7% MoM in July (worse than the -1.0% MoM expected). This dragged the annual increase in sales down to just 0.74% YoY…”

Chuck Again….  you could have bet your bottom dollar that rising mortgage rates were going to be a problem for housing…. And so, it appears to be… 

I didn’t intend to start today’s letter with data prints, but they did play hell for the markets yesterday, so they got top billing… 

Well, I can’t get this out of my mind. The thought that China keeps buying physical Gold while the U.S. plays with paper money… I think the horde of Gold that China has is greater than that of the U.S. which is 8,000 tons… (supposedly they still have that much)  Think about that for a minute… China buys physical Gold just about every day and the U.S. bleeds dollar bills….  Yes, the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world… But, if I had my druthers I would choose China over the paper world of the U.S.    

Longtime Pfennig Reader, Bob, forwarded an email to me that told me that China has built a Laser-Powered Grid that transmits electricity through the air….. The U.S. has copper wires that link from A to B, while the Chinese have a laser light carrying electricity to A and B….  

Now, I don’t know if this is true or not, but if it is true, and with the advances made in today’s world, why wouldn’t I believe it? But if it’s true than the Chinese have got something… you can view a video that explains it all here: China Just Built A Laser-Powered Grid That Transmits Electricity Through The Air

My friend, and editor of 5 Bullets, David Gonigam has good piece in his letter yesterday regarding AI and how they will be seeking a taxpayer bailout soon… here’s David: “Slowly, inexorably, the path is becoming clear: The AI industry will be asking for a taxpayer bailout next year. Or, at the latest, 2028.”

Chuck again… this just rankles me to no end… These companies have been spending like drunken tourists and now that they haven’t turned  profit, they ask for a bailout….  I just get so darn mad at these companies… But it’ll do no good, they’ll get it and move on as if they didn’t need it, when we all know better than that…  Taxpayer bailouts are a bugaboo of mine… I think you can tell… 

The euro is still trying to recover, after the U.S. sold $10 Billion worth of the currency to buy yen… I just can’t get over this, and you shouldn’t either! The fact that we did this is bad enough in my opinion, but add in that we didn’t even alert the European Central Bank adds salt to the wound… It will take a while for the euro to recover and get back to gaining VS the dollar, so patience my friend….

The U.S. Data Cupboard had yesterday’s STUPID CPI and the previous day had the Existing Home Sales that we talked about above… Today’s Cupboard has the July PPI (wholesale inflation) and the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  The Jobless Claims had reached a level below 200,000 last week for the first time in month of Blue Moons…. So, it will be interesting to see if the number is above or below 200,000… 

And some things never change… The U.S. budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years amid a surge in Medicare costs and as interest on the federal debt continued to weigh on the nation’s fiscal picture, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.

In addition to the big single-month jump, the collective red ink across the first 10 months of the government’s fiscal year rose to nearly $1.8 trillion and surpassed the same period in 2025.

The July shortfall totaled $432.3 billion, up some 48% from the same period a year ago and the largest monthly deficit since March 2021. Geez Louise, this is getting to be too much for one country to bear…. 

To recap… The dollar has gained back all of its losses from last Friday as the rate cut folks have cowered into the corner and hid from the masses… Gold found a bid on Wednesday, but Silver struggled with the SPTs showing who’s boss… The STUPID CPI was a bunch of bunk but played with the markets. And we’re still hitting the till, with the monthly Budget Deficit making a high that hasn’t been reached since March 2021… 

For What It’s Worth… Man, to find a FWIW article this morning was like looking for a needle in a haystack… But, I did find one… The guys at Asset Strategies had a great article on how to open a Gold IRA and you can find it here: 17 Questions to Ask Before Starting a Precious Metals IRA

Or, here’s your snippet:”Gold, when combined with other asset classes, can be a valuable component of a diversified retirement portfolio.

By allocating a share of your retirement savings to physical metals, you can enhance financial resilience and better safeguard your purchasing power as you move toward retirement.

But, before opening an account or buying IRA-eligible bullion,  you need to start by asking questions that clarify the strategy, costs, rules, storage arrangements, and service you can expect.

Here’s a simple checklist to prepare you for this step in your retirement strategy…

1. What role do precious metals play in my overall portfolio?

Are you looking for a diversifier, a potential hedge against inflation, or a way to reduce reliance on purely paper holdings? Defining the purpose of the allocation can help you decide whether a precious metals IRA is appropriate and how it may fit within your broader retirement plan.

In general, we recommend adding precious metals to a self-directed IRA after you have met your allocation of core holdings in gold, so that your core holdings are easily accessible in case of an emergency. A precious metals IRA is part of your longer-term strategy.

2. How much of my retirement portfolio should I consider allocating?

There is no universal allocation that fits every investor. Your time horizon, risk tolerance, existing holdings, income needs, and retirement objectives should all be considered. But don’t put all your nest eggs in one basket!

A diverse retirement portfolio is essential, and this is precisely why gold and other precious metals can be so useful when held in combination with other asset classes. Gold and silver prices tend to move independently (low correlation) of stocks and bonds, which helps balance risk and can stabilize a portfolio during economic downturns.

3. Should I consider gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or a combination?

Each metal has different supply, demand, market, and industrial-use characteristics. Ask how the proposed metal mix supports your objectives and whether it aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. Most investors start with an allocation to gold, and add other precious metals to increase the diversification.”

Chuck Again… obviously I couldn’t list all 17, you’ll have to click on the link above to see what the entire list has in store for you… But, you get the idea that starting a Gold IRA isn’t just deciding that you want one…. 

Market Prices 8/13/2026: American Style: A$.7054, kiwi .5845, C$ .7173, euro 1.1536, sterling 1.3495, Swiss $1.2310, European Style: rand 16.1246, krone 9.5087, SEK 9.4804, forint 314.53, zloty 3.7321, koruna 21.0000, RUB 84.01, yen 159.30, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.8468, INR 95.44, China 6.7450, peso 17.05, BRL 5.1768, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.89, Oil $81.67, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $65.01, Platinum $1,734.00, Palladium $1,364.00, Copper $6.58, and Gold… $4,385

That’s It for today… Well, my beloved Cardinals now go on a 3-city road trip, how they come home from that will decide if they are be taken seriously among the Playoff contenders or not…. The excitement around the start of Mizzou’s Football Season is high; they’ve already announced the singer of the Anthem at the first game: Sheryl Crow! She of course used to be a Mizzou student! My wife is going to the Muny tonight, so I’ll be batching this evening… I hope it’s not one of those nights as the song suggests. Blind Faith takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Can’t Find My Way Home…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar is just drifting along the shore
• The STUPID CPI prints today

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What the heck is going on with the dollar? It seemed that after it closed at the same level in the BBDXY as it did the previous day (1,203) that the currency traders had gone home already 3 days early… I guess, when I check the overnight markets, in a minute, something will have changed… My beloved Cardinals won last night VS the Phillies 2-0… The bullpen tried to give it away, but then they had a savior…  My second favorite song by Chicago is playing to greet me this morning: Beginnings…

Well, I already told you the dollar didn’t move yesterday and stayed steady Eddie with the BBDXY at 1,203…  Gold couldn’t help itself yesterday as the SPTs took a pound of flesh, and Gold ended the day down, $22. And Silver saw the same SPTs doing their thing pushing Silver down $1.04… Gold closed at $4,369, and Silver at $64.81

The price of Oil continued to rise as the war wages on… Oil was up $2 and change and ended the day at $82.91…. The 10-year Treasury saw its yield bump higher again and ended the day at 4.69% yield…

In the overnight markets last night…. there was some dollar selling overnight with the BBXY down 1 index point to start the day. The BBDXY is 1,202 and looking very shaky.. The STUPID CPI is getting ready to print and most folks that look at this all the time seem to think that we’ll see the STUPID CPI soften in July… That would put the rate cut folks on notice and give some OOMPH to the dollar… We’ll see, eh?

Gold/Silver are back on the rally horse this morning. Gold is up $45 and Silver is up $1.61…  The metals traders are of a different opinion on the STUPID CPI…  I always seemed to pin my flag to the Currency Traders…

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with an $83 handle this morning, and the 10-year is seeing some more yield control by the Fed Heads, and this has brought the yield on the bond to 4.66%…  why can’t they just leave this bond alone to trade on its own devices?  Well, I know why and so do you… The Fed Heads are attempting to keep rates in the ballpark so that the servicing costs (interest payments) don’t go through the roof…  

The Chinese Gold Association told us yesterday that Gold consumption rose 1.23% for the 1^st half of this year. The association noted that the country’s gold consumption patterns were in flux, as the combination of sharp price fluctuations and a new policy toward taxation on Gold kept Gold from really moving past its previous record for consumption. 

I sure wish the Chinese would clean on just exactly how much Gold they hold… The Gold Co’s listing for holding of Gold for the Chinese can’t possibly be correct, and it’s way too low…. I guess one day, when push comes to shove and the leaders of countries sit down and show what they own, then we’ll know… But that’s a few years from now, the U.S. is not near ready to admit that they’re broke and need to sit down…. 

You know if you ran your household finances like the U.S. Gov’t does, you would be in a small cell but grateful for 3 meals a day!   Yes, the good news is that tax receipts are 3.576% higher YTD in 2026, the bad news is that have spent 3.74% more than we took in, resulting in a deficit of $1.79 Trillion YTD.

 And in case you were wondering on January 8, 1835, President Andrew Jackson paid off the entire national debt, the only time the United States federal government has reported no national debt. So, it was done once…. of course, the total wasn’t what it is now, but then we could have done something to curb the growth back in the early 2000’s when the debt was only $7 Trillion… and to think, I was yelling from the rooftops then that this was crazy! 

Moving on… you know, we’re still in the dog days of August/summer…  and this year, we’ve seen more volatility in markets than we’ve ever seen previously….  And that scares me every morning when I sit down and look what to write about… The volatility is all over the board, stocks, bonds, currencies, metals, energy none have been spared…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI for July for our viewing pleasure this morning…  And that’ it… The Data Cupboard this week has left us wanting but the data just isn’t there… 

To recap… The dollar was stuck in the mud yesterday and only moved 1 index point overnight… China’s Gold consumption is strong even with the very high Gold prices earlier this year… And there are conflicting thoughts on where the STUPID CPI will print today… 

For What It’s Worth…  I saw this headline and read the artical and immediately thought it was FWIW worthy… It’s about the shape of the economy in a round about way and can be found here: 25.2 million adults now live with their parents — experts say rent should be ‘non-negotiable’ even for family

Or, here’s your snippet: “The number of adults living with their parents hit a new record in 2025, with 25.2 million adults ages 25 to 35 residing with their parents. That’s almost one in three young people who are still living at home.

Unfortunately, in some cases, these multigenerational living arrangements don’t work out.

Let’s pretend, for example, that Gabriella’s son Juan has moved back in with her. He’s 27 and works as an office manager, but he’s refused to pay his share of the household bills. Gabriella is frustrated that Juan isn’t contributing to expenses, and she’s not sure if she should make Juan move out or how to handle the situation.

So, what should she do?

Understand the reasons for the non-payment

The first thing Gabriella needs to do is to figure out why Juan isn’t paying rent.

“What parents often forget is that the refusal to help out around the house or pay rent is usually just shame combined with some level of learned helplessness in a kid who may have held jobs before but never fully supported themselves,” Hayley Caddes, cofounder of Not Therapy, a coaching company for neurodivergent and stuck 18- to 29-year-olds, told Moneywise.”

Chuck Again… well, I used this to illustrate how businesses are not hiring, they’re not firing either….  and that causes snagnation!

Market Prices 8/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7070, kiwi .5866, C$ .7177, euro 1.1542, sterling 1.3523, Swiss $1.2321, European Style: rand 16.1426, krone 9.4775, SEK 9.5299, forint 315.42, zloty 3.7292, koruna 21.0019, RUB 83.04, yen 159.09, sing 1.2790, HKD 7.8467, INR 95.33, China 6.7447, peso 17.06, BRL 5.1619, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 99.81, Oil $83.61, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $66.48, Platinum $1,802.00, Palladium $1,426.00, Copper $6.68, and Gold…. $4,414

That’s It for Today…  A nice win last night for my beloved Cardinals and keep their hope for the playoffs at fumes and vapors…. I told my two boys on Sunday that this would be a tough and telling series with the Phillies, and it has turned out just that..  I got 6.5 hours of uninterrupted sleep last night after not taking a nap yesterday, so maybe I can get back to a normal sleep pattern….  The Best Beach Boys son ever takes us to the finish line today: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler