Author: admin

• the dollar is really getting sold these days
• Gold & Silver are on the rally tracks today

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to one and all… Well, this won’t be a normal Pfennig this morning, as I am whacked! I haven’t been able to sleep much for the last two nights… I feel like death warmed over, and I’ sure it’s the infusions doing the trick on me… I’ve been up all night again, and need to sleep, so back to sleep I’ll go as soon as I get a few points across…

I truly don’t feel lie writing today, and hopefully I’ll recover by tomorrow.

All I have to say is that While Chuck was away, the currencies played! The dollar has lost a ton of ground, with the BBDXY ending Feb. At 1,290, and ending yesterday at 1,269… The euro has bulked up to trade with a 1.07 handle, and the rest of the currencies are following the BIG DOG off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. 

One would think that Gold would be on the rally tracks, and while it is lately, it had ended February down several days, and on Feb 28th, Gold ended the month at $1,258…  and Gold ended the day yesterday at $2.889… Silver suffered the same treatment and ended February at $31.21, and then ended yesterday at $32.18…  These aren’t bad outcomes, but they should be a whole lot better, if you ask me! 

One thing that I do want to point out this morning is that there was a report the other day that said, that “money supply in the U.S. is growing”…  Now for all of you who follow Chuck’s definition of inflation… Money Supply is inflation… So, we all have that to look forward to… 

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar continued to get sold, with the BBDXY losing 2 more index points, and Gold is on the rally tracks this morning, up $24 to start the day, and Silver is joining in and is up 44-cents to start the day… 

I’m feeling a little low right ow, so I’m going to cut this off and get it out.. 

Market Prices 3/11.2025: American Style: A$ .6263, kiwi .5699, C$ .6770, euro 1.0897, sterling 1.2934, Swiss $1.1335, European Style: rand 18.2552, krone 10.6706, SEK 10.0691, forint 376.64, zloty 3.8483, koruna 22.9106, RUB 85.62, yen 147.05, sing 1.2323, HKD 7.7694, INR 87.22, China 7.2348, peso 20.34, BRL 5.8563, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103..54, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $32.61, Platinum $987.00, Palladium $982.00, Copper $487. And Gold… $2,913.84

That’s it for today, sorry for the abbreviated version especially after me being gong for so long… Yesterday was my good friend, Rick B. Celebrating his birthday… We went to lunch to celebrate it, and then he got on a plane and went home, after spending the last week with me, and my whining, and bellyaching, and needed help… Thank you Rick and Kevin!  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• But get sole in the overnight markets… UGH!

Good Day, and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! This is the last Pfennig until I return on March 11… I know, that seems like a long time, but, time will fly for me, I’m sure! My beloved Cardinals finally got a win yesterday, and the lineup featured mostly starters for at least 6 innings… We hemmed and hawed about going to the game, since the forecast was for rain, but in the end, we went, and left before the rain began in the 7th… I came home and collapsed in my recliner and didn’t wake up until it was dark outside. UGH! I experienced another stomach problem yesterday, and those usually knock me out.. The Atlanta Rhythm Section greets me this morning with their song: Imaginary Lover

The dollar range traded yesterday, going up a buck and back down by a buck throughout the day, but in the end the BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day. Gold experienced another record setting day, climbing $18 to $2,954, and Silver was flat on the day, ending the day at $32.42… Gold has been being bought most recently as a safe haven, and if that continues, it means that Gold will be well-bid this week. Market sentiment, as we have seen, can be quite fickle and quirky, with an itchy trigger finger, so that’s why said, “if it continues”… 

The price of Oil, which also happens to be range trading these days, bumped higher to end the day trading with a $71 handle, and the 10-year Treasury keeps seeing it being bought, and with that buying the yield on the bond has slipped downward… The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day yesterday at 4.38%… Treasuries too, have been being bought on a safe haven basis… Although I would argue that going further out on the yield curve in Treasuries is a risk, to me, that is… 3-year max is my rule… 

In the overnight markets last night… It’s a game of give and take; the dollar lost the 1 index point it had gained in the overnight trading last night… Our debt problems are not viewed as a “problem” here in the U.S, while overseas they see the writing on the wall…  A cat has been thrown among the pigeons in the early trading for Gold & Silver today… The short paper traders have watched Gold reach another all-time record price yesterday, and said, “Whoa There Pardner” The short paper traders have unleashed a fury of paper trades this morning, and Gold is down $27 to start the day, while Silver has given back 57-cents! And fallen back below the $32 handle… I tell you this and you’ve heard it a million times before… I have total disdain for the short paper traders, they could all be on a rocket ship that’s projected nowhere, and it wouldn’t be enough to undue all the evils they have unleashed on the metals… 

And speaking of give and take: The price of Oil gave back the $1 it gained yesterday in the overnight trading last night… And trades this morning with a $70 handle…  The 10-year Treasury is watching all the hard work that they had put in to getting the yield to rise, erode… UGH! Oh, well… Que sera sera… 

Well, the audit of Ft. Knox is going to happen… But let me be clear here, it’s not just counting bars of Gold or looking them over to see if they are real… The auditors will have to look under the hood, and seek out the Gold lease agreements… And ensure that the serial numbers on the bars are the same as the invoice or shipping manifest… This whole scenario is becoming a great story line for a movie… For what IF, there are discrepancies? Uh-Oh… 

The other news story that cam across last night was that finally there has been a surge in buying the Gold ETF… While in a way around the bases, there’s a buying of physical Gold there, it’s not the kind of investor physical Gold buying that I was talking about yesterday… 

But, as long as it surrounds buying Gold, that’s the thing I want to see from all investors, for it’s the way I see as an end to the short paper traders… 

Don’t know if you follow the currency roundup each day, but it you do, you will have noticed a change in the direction of the Japanese yen… Yes, the yen traded below the 150 level for two consecutive days, and that means the yen is getting bought… Right now, mostly by Pension funds, hedge funds, and whatever fund. Their inventory managers are thinking that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is going to follow up their rate hike earlier this month, with another rate hike soon…  I hate to be the guy that pulls away the punch bowl at a party, but… I doubt the BOJ will be that aggressive with their rate decisions… I’m not saying that an eventual rate hike from the BOJ isn’t coming, but instead, I’m offering a delay in those rate hikes… 

The euro is nearing 1.05 again, and each time it has done that, it gets beaten back down… But maybe a 3^rd time is a charm and the euro can maintain the figure for more than a day… And once again, this euro strength is coming as a result of it being the offset currency to the dollar… The dollar has been weaker, the euro has been stronger… The euro did get a mini burst in price from the election results last Sunday, that we talked about yesterday.  A Conservative Coalition Gov’t is what the people in Germany wanted, and with Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, the northern Eurozone countries will also like it… As for the Club Med currencies in the South don’t have a clue…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the stupid consumer Confidence for this month… This is nothing more than a pulse of the stock market, and since stocks have found that they are no longer on a ONE-WAY street, I expect the Confidence number to have fallen this month… 

To recap… The dollar range traded yesterday before ending the day up 1 index point in the BBDXY. Gold rallied, then got sold, then rallied again to end the day up $18… And Silver was flat…  The Ft. Knox audit is ON! And Chuck reminds the auditors to look under the hood…  And the Japanese yen is in rally mode… I know, it sounds strange o say that! 

For What It’s Worth… . I talked about the DOGE group attempting to get our financial situation sorted out a bit. Well, his partner in the Ft. Knox audit will be Ron Paul, who has been a shining light for us that think we should question everything the Gov’t implements, comes up with etc.  Well, Ron Paul wrote an article in Daily Reckoning about cutting the defense budget, and I like his thoughts!  And it can be found here: Can We Really Cut Half of The Military Budget? You Bet! – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “The wailing sound you heard last Thursday was the chorus of the Beltway warmongers shrieking in despair at President Trump’s suggestion that there was no reason for the United States to be spending one trillion dollars on “defense.”

“…One of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, and I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half. And we can do that, and I think we’ll be able to do that,” the President told reporters.

With this statement, President Trump blew up one of the biggest myths of our time, particularly among Republicans, that spending more on the military is essential to keeping us safe.

There is a vast and well-funded network of political and industrial interests that depend on maintaining that myth, from the weapons manufacturers to the mainstream media to the think tanks and beyond. Why? Because most of what is called “defense spending” has little to do with defending this country and a lot to do with enriching the politically well-connected.

We also need a change in policy. Americans are beginning to understand the economic costs of maintaining a global military empire. US taxpayers are forced to cover more than half of the entire NATO budget while European countries rattle sabers at Russia and threaten war.

If Europe feels so threatened by Russia, why don’t they cover the costs of their own defense? Why do poor Americans have to pay for the defense of rich Europeans? Haven’t we had enough of this?

I very much hope that President Trump follows through with his plan to drastically reduce our bloated military budget. We can start by closing the hundreds of military bases overseas, bringing back our troops from foreign countries, and eliminating our massive commitments to NATO and other international organizations.

We will be richer, safer, and happier.”

Chuck again…  Some of you may recall that Chuck’s debt solutions were a call to close all military bases around the world, especially in countries that don’t like us there to begin with, and bring the soldiers home to defend our border… So, it’s nice… That old saying has an iota of truth to it here, that great minds think alike! HA!

Market prices 2/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6343, kiwi .5722, C$ .7011, euro 1.0496, sterling 1.2667, Swiss $1.1203, European Style: rand 18.3744, krone 11.1203, SEK 10.6106, forint 382.25, zloty 3.9442, koruna 23.7781, RUB 86.60, yen 149.52, sing 1.3384, HKD 7.7742, INR 87.20, China 7.2605, peso 20.50, BRL 5.8096, BBDXY 1,286, Dollar index 106.41, Oil $70.44, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $31.86, Platinum $967.00, Palladium $937.00, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $2,927.56

That’s it for today… No sappy story for you today, sorry about being that open about my sorrow… Tomorrow I head home for my 4^th infusion, and this time I get 6 weeks between them. I return on Monday, with my Spring Training buddies… On the same plane! No worries, it’s a very early flight, so I doubt we’ll be much trouble… And then my annual spring vacation begins… YAHOO! Well, I proved myself to be up to the task… My wife doubted that I would be able to walk from the parking garage to the stadium, up the stairs and to my seat without taking a break… But for two consecutive days, I nailed it Gov.! It wasn’t a walk in the park, but wasn’t too bad… It’s the little victories that I enjoy at this stage of my life and health… The Wonderful Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: Son of a Preacher Man… It’ll be March when we next talk, so I hope you have plenty of days of seashells and balloons, and that you’ll especially have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals end week, last, on better footing…
• Trump’s tariffs already taking effect…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals didn’t start out their spring Training session on the right foot, as they lost both of their first two games… I was disgusted by the relief pitching in both games, and when we left the game yesterday, Kathy said “I can’t believe you get so upset by spring training games”. Of which, I replied, “All these pitchers are trying out to see if they belong in the majors… This doesn’t bode well for the relief corps this year” I know, I know, it’s only two games… It’s supposed to be a real rain soaker today, so I doubt I’ll be going to the game today… Procol Harum greets me this morning with their song, and the song that I’ve said before, I like better than their hit song: Conquistador… 

Last Thursday, the markets took a chunk out of the dollar’s armor, as the BBDXY lost 8 index points… All because of a weak stronger than expected Initial Weekly Jobless Claims report… In addition, the leading Indicator for Jan, printed a negative -.3%, so questions were abound about just how “resilient” , and one Fed head described the U.S. economy last week.  That 8-point loss in the BBDXY was HUGE, and one that I feared would bring about the PPT to do some dollar buying to stem the loss.  But on Friday, there was no sign of the PPT, but the fear that they are lurking in a dark alley somewhere, was enough to keep the dollar from falling more On Friday, as it did gain back 4 index point, on Friday, but that was it… 

Gold had a good day, last Thursday, as it gained $14, and Silver gained 24-cents… So, the previous Thursday was Gold’s day to get the stuffing knocked out it, and this last Thursday was the day the dollar got the stuffing knocked out of it… Thursdays are not good days, because that’s the day I infusions!  On Friday, the Gold Bugs tried like hell to keep the short paper traders from ruling the day, but at the end of day, the dirty, rotten Ba$#%#s won, because Gold dropped $2 to end the week at $2,935, and Silver, really go the snot kicked out of it, and lost 46-cents to end the week $32.43… 

All I can say about the short paper trading is that, to date, the physical buying of Gold & Silver has helped keep the pressure on the short paper traders… But it’s still not enough… We need to get American investors turned around to see that Gold has outperformed stocks… Not the S&P, but the DOW…  And get these investors looking to allocating a portion of their investment portfolio to Gold & Silver. That’s when the short paper traders will throw in the towel, and not before, because there will be nobody going to jail, thus scaring the traders out of their wits… 

The price of Oil slipped late last week and ended the week trading with a $70 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield really saw some downward movement late last week, and ended the week with a 4.43% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw a little slippage, losing 1 index point overnight. Gold is up $11 to start the day/ week and Silver is down 4-cents to start the day/ week this morning. Silver’s 4-cent loss is easily turned around., so what are waiting for? A laced-lined invitation to buy? Well, you aren’t going to get one from me! Just a swift kick in the rear to get you off your duff and buy! HAHAHA! 

There was not movement in the price of Oil or the yield in the 10-year overnight… So we start our week with an Oil price of $70 and a 10-year yield of 4.43%

I read this morning that Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from the Eurozone, have already been effective, even though they don’t officially take place until March 12… Nothing like ticking off your allies, eh? Hey, the POTUS didn’t write the book on how to Win Friends and Influence People!  That got my mind wandering off here folks… Long ago, when I was a young man, I’ve told you that I was such a different person, very short-tempered and dominating… One time I was at my desk eating lunch and reading a book on “how to dominate people”, and my boss walked by and laughed, and said, “I would have thought that you wrote that book!”  That woke me up, for sure… And an eventual change took place in me… 

I like the commercial on TV where JJ Watt, the former defensive player of the year in the NFL, says “It’s not about how many people you can knock down, but how many you can lift up”… 

OK, onto something else… Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has their general election yesterday, and talk about people that take their voting seriously…. 83% of registered voters showed up to vote! That blows our numbers out of the water, and we’re supposed to be the beacon for democracy… It appears that new coalition Gov’t will take over in Germany, and maybe they can get the country out of its malaise… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has a “closed” sign hanging from its door, as there are no data prints scheduled for today… And the Cupboard will repeat this empty feeling until Thursday (there’s that day again!) and Friday, when the data will ramp up to a crescendo… And then, it will be March!

To recap… The dollar got whacked on Thursday last week, and since dollar trades are somewhat leery about taking the dollar lower, with the PPT lurking in a dark alley, somewhere… Gold saw a good ending to last week, and starts today up $11… Trump’s tariffs on steel don’t begin until March 12, but their effects on trades with the Eurozone are already feeling some pressure… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I was so amped up about the first spring training game this past weekend that I usually use to scour the earth in search of a FWIW article, that I failed to do just that… But I did find this on zerohedge.com and it’s about Commercial Real Estate… Something that we’ve talked about previously but has been on the back burned now for some time. Well, not any more, and you can find the article here: Subprime Redux: Commercial Real Estate Bond Distress Hits Another Record High | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “At the end of Q4 2024, commercial real estate continued to exhibit severe weakness, with commercial real estate bonds hitting record distress levels, surpassing the previous records reached in Q3 2024. Commercial real estate bonds are just commercial real estate loans packaged into securities and sold to investors. One category of bonds, commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”), saw their distress rate increase to 10.6 percent, a fourth consecutive monthly record.

Most notably, in the CMBS category—which comprises approximately $625 billion in outstanding commercial real estate debt—loans on office properties now exhibit a distress rate above 17 percent while apartment loan distress accelerated to 12.5 percent. While loans underlying CMBS bonds—which are generally longer-term and fixed-rate—appear woefully insolvent, another group of bonds comprising short-term floating-rate commercial real estate loans are even worse.

These bridge loans—which are packaged up into CRE-CLO (commercial real estate-collateralized loan obligation) bonds—represent roughly $75 billion of outstanding commercial real estate debt today. At year-end, they were sporting a 13.8 percent distress rate, eclipsing the prior record of 13.1 percent set at the end of Q3 2024.

As bad as the above stats may seem, they do not convey the true extent of malinvestment in commercial real estate, and the consequences thereof. For starters, the analysis leaves out the market for bank lending in commercial real estate—the largest source and the hardest for which to find data—comprising roughly $3 trillion in outstanding loans.

Simple distress rates also fail to recognize the potential for distress in nominally healthy loans, only identifying those that have explicitly been deemed distressed. In this case, distressed means 30 days or more delinquent on a payment, past the maturity date, currently in special servicing (a condition where property performance puts the health of a loan in jeopardy or specific loan agreement clauses have been violated), or a combination thereof.”

Chuck Again… Well, out of sight, out of mind, has been he CRE problem for me, but not any longer.. Just simply another sign that the U.S. economy is NOT resilient.  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 2/24/2025: American Style: A$ .6367, kiwi .5746, C$ .7021, euro 1.0470, sterling 1.2635, Swiss $1.1117, European Style: rand 18.3452, krone 11.0119, SEK 10.6430, forint 383.93, zloty 3.9646, koruna 23.9465, RUB 87.45, yen 149.67, sing 1.3378, HKD 7.7736, INR 86.70, China 7.2604, peso 20.41, BRL 5.7094, BBDXY 1,385., Dollar Index 106.63, Oil $70.51, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $32.47, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $961.00, Copper $4.58, and Gold… $2,947.29

That’s it for today… I don’t want to have missed this tomorrow after I hit send, so I’ll mention it today… This Friday, the 28th, would be my closest sister’s birthday.. Barbara, or Barbie doll, as I always called her, died in 2018, from ALS… (Lou Gehrig’s disease) Barie doll and me were only 1 year apart in school, so she would help with stuff that she already suffered through, and we became so close… I remember when she was getting very bad with ALS, and asked me to help her with retirement paperwork… I remember sitting in my car after our visit and crying my eyes out at bad she had the disease… It wasn’t that much longer that she passed. Miss you Barbie doll! Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with their song: Sultans of Swing… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and that didn’t ruin your day with my sad story, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gains 3 index points on Wed. but gets sold overnigh
• Gold & Silver are moving higher this morning…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! What a first half of basketball from my Mizzou Tigers last night VS #4 Alabama… The Tigers jumped out to a 12-0 lead from the starter’s gun, and never looked back… The second half of the game got close on a couple of occasions, but my Tigers held on and won the game!  Another shot of winter came down to S. Florida last night, and for the next few days, we’ll be in the 70’s, but yesterday was nice and warm, with the sun peeking in and out of the clouds. I sat outside to reread a book that I last read last year, but it was the only book in the library here that appealed to me, and quite frankly, I don’t recall a lot of it, so to me, it’s a new book! Weezer greets me this morning with their song: Island In the Sun… 

The dollar broke out of its malaise yesterday, and gained 3 index points in the BBDXY… For those you who are new to class, The BBDXY stands for the Bloomberg Dollar Index…  The BBDXY is a vital benchmark that meticulously gauges the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of key world currencies. Our Trading partners… As in the old Dollar Index was so overweighted with euros, that it skewed what was really going on with the dollar. I switched to the BBDXY a few years ago, and so there you are! 

The price of Gold saw some selling yesterday and ended the day down $9 to close at $2,934. This week, Gold recovered fro the loss on Friday and, until yesterday’s $9 loss…   Silver saw the short paper traders take it down a notch.  Silver lost 22-cents yesterday, and ended the day at $32.75… 

Yesterday, Silver was within spittin’ distance of reaching $33… But the short paper traders were making the buyers of physical silver work for it… 

The price of Oil remained in the $72 handle yesterday, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped back to 4.52%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gave 2 of those 3 index points it gained yesterday, and starts the day at 1,290 in the BBDXY… But the euro has been getting sold, not harshly, but sold these days, as it went too high too fast, I believe… Gold has gained back its lost ground yesterday, in the early trading today, and opens with a $17 gain, and Silver has breached the $33 handle overnight and starts today up $52!… Hi Yo Silver!  I don’t know about you, but as a kid I really liked the Lone Ranger, Zorro, and Batman were my faves… 

The price of Oil remained in the $72 handle overnight, and the 10-year gained 1 basis point overnight and starts today trading with a 4.53% yield… 

Well, the question that I’ve had for the U.S. Treasury for some time now, and each time I ask all I hear is crickets… The question is this: Countries around the world, including you’re two biggest Treasury buyers, China and Japan, start to back away from the auction window, So, who do you think will take their places to buy your Debt/ Treasuries? 

And in regard to that question… China reported that their holdings of U.S. Treasuries had sank to a level not seen since 2009!  Again, the question comes as:  Where in the world is the U.S. going to find homes for their debt going forward?

I can’t emphasize that question enough folks… If the deficit spending continues, which means that more Treasuries will need to be issued to fund that deficit spending, and now, the U.S. has either ticked off countries that usually buy our debt/ Treasuries, or we’ve scared them to death of owning Treasuries, because our debt is astronomical… 

Borrowing a line from Jr. Walker and the All-Stars: What does it take to win your love for me?  But I want to change it bit to say: What does it take to get our Treasuries sold in these conditions..   

1 we could raise the yields on bonds to make them ultra-attractive

2. We could coerce smaller countries and tell them we won’t invade them if they buy our debt…

3 we could stop deficit spending! 

The only thing I see that could work, is to raise the yields… But that would be death knell for the stock jockeys… You can have your cake, but you can’t eat it too! 

OK, onto something else..  Yesterday, I told you that the Aussies had cut rates, and failed to mention that usually when a Central Bank cuts rates, or debases the currency as I like to say, the home currency suffers at least for a few days… But the A$ never saw any selling and remained trading with a 63-cent handle and gained on that yesterday… So, something is different here, folks… And it will take someone with far more gray matter than I to explain that to me! But good for the A$… Oh, and kiwi didn’t see any wear or tear on its tires since they cut rates either… 

There are times that warrant a currency rise after a rate cut, but this is not one of those times… I’m just saying…

Here in the U.S. the POTUS’s announcement regarding 25% tariffs on Autos, Drug and Chip Imports are still being mulled over by the markets… There are still those that believe the tariffs will be good for the economy, and then there are those of us, including me, that believe that while they will even the playing field, that the reciprocal tariffs and devaluing of currencies will deliver a Global trade War… And that won’t be good for the economy… 

I mentioned Japan above… Well, the two most beaten and deprived currencies the ruble and yen are opening some eyes these days… I want to talk about Japan and the yen, which gained more ground VS the dollar last night on rumors that are growing like a ground swell, that the Bank of Japan will raise rates at their next meeting. But then, when that doesn’t happen, what does happen to the yen?  It gets sent back to the woodshed.  And what have I always pointed out with regard to the BOJ? That they have no problem whatsoever with disappointing the markets… But for now, it’s all seashells and balloons for the yen… But be careful out there! 

And the more Russia talks about peace with Ukraine, the more investors are getting into rubles, what with their 20% deposit rate, why not? 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point your attention to my good friend, Dennis Miller’s weekly letter… It can be found here: www.milleronthemoney.com. I’ve highlighted stuff that Dennis has written about previously, but in today’s letter he outdid himself! Dennis recently had a lengthy discussion with John Williams of www.shadowstats.com about Gold and inflation, and John had just created a new graph that he allowed Dennis to use… This graph charts back in time to present, how Gold kept up with inflation, and we’re talking about John’s inflation numbers not the BLS’s! So, if you have already heeded my call to get Dennis’s free letter, good for you, look for it today in your email box… But if you haven’t, go to the link above and see what I’m talking about, as MarketWatch has dubbed Dennis “the retirementor” And sign up! So, the next time I mention something Dennis has said, you can simply go to your email box and read it!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the FOMC Meeting Minutes of which, didn’t contain any jarring differences in what was said in the press conference after the meeting. Today, we’ll see the usual for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. In addition, we’ll also see the leading Indicators for Jan, and I expect that it will remain in negative territory. 

To recap.. The dollar finally broke out of its malaise yesterday, gaining 3 index points on the day… Gold and Silver ran into some short paper traders and lost ground yesterday.  Chuck brings up a question asking who will buy our Treasuries/ Debt with China and Japan backing away from the auction window.  And the A$ and kiwi have Chuck scratching is bald head… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I talked about the Gold leases yesterday, and today I saw an article by Paul Craig Roberts that questioned, whose Gold is at Fort Knox, and it can be found here: Whose Gold, if anyone’s, Is in Ft. Knox |

Or, here’s your snippet: “f there is gold in Ft. Knox, whose is it?

Many bullion dealers believe that any gold in Ft. Knox is not ours.  Over the decades the gold was “leased” to bullion dealers who sold it into the gold market, thereby protecting the value of the dollar by holding down the gold price.

“Leasing” the gold means that the US can still claim to own the gold.  A sale has to be recorded or reported, but not a “lease.”  

Gold might also have disappeared through rehypothecation, which is the use by one party of another party’s asset to back their own financial or borrowing practices. The gold of other countries is also in Ft. Knox. Earlier this century, Germany requested its gold from Ft. Knox, and was told that the gold would be returned in seven years.  This indicates that the gold was used by Washington for some other purpose and was unavailable to be returned to Germany.

For years Rep. Ron Paul and Sen. Rand Paul have tried to get a gold audit.   Neither of these legislators were even permitted to enter Ft. Knox to see if any gold was there.

Now that Elon Musk has announced a gold audit, holders of gold contracts have suddenly started to demand settlement in gold delivery rather than in cash and pocketing the profits.  The amount of gold delivery being demanded from Comex, the US gold futures market, and its London equivalent is enormous, putting the ability to deliver under enormous strain.  The only institutions capable of purchasing tons of gold at $2,900 per ounce are the Federal Reserve and US Treasury by creating the money with which to pay for the gold.  The rise in the price of gold reflects the increase in physical purchases.  It seems clear enough that the Fed or Treasury is desperate to put gold back into Ft. Knox in advance of the audit.

Previously, the Comex or futures market was used to hold down the price of gold by dumping huge amounts of short selling in the futures market all at once, often when there was no active trading, as Dave Kranzler and I have explained.  The gold futures market is unique in that it can be shorted without the contracts being covered, unlike shorting equities. “

Chuck again… A good article that should be read to get a better understanding of Gold leases, etc.  You know, an even better way of going about that is to get the book by Stuart Englert titled: Rigged… I read this book a few years ago, and it’s the source of many of my thoughts on the shorting of Gold… 

Market Prices 2/20/25: American Style: A$.6369, kiwi .5722, C$ .7034, euro 1.0404, sterling 1.2606, Swiss $1.1077, European Style: rand 18.4709, krone 11.1194, SEK 10.7003, forint 385.08, zloty 3.9632, koruna 24.1070, RUB 98.7, yen 150.28, sing 1.3434, HKD 7.777, INR 86.66, China 7.2631, peso 20.37, BRL 5.7220, BBDXY 1,290, Dollar Index 106.99, Oil $72.33, 10-year 4.53%, Silver $33.27, Platinum $987.00, Palladium $1,012.00, Copper $4.65, and Gold… $2,950.90

That’s it for today… I was up late last night to watch the end of the Basketball game… But it was worth it to see my Tigers whip #4 Alabama… So, I overslept this morning… Not really an excuse I would have accepted from my employees back in the day, but I rest my case!  So, two more Pfennigs next week, and then crickets from me for some time… But, I’ll return… Like Gen MacArthur… And when I do… To the moon, Alice!  My first home spring training game is this coming Sunday… I’m getting keyed up and can’t wait… But I guess I have no other choice! Chicago takes us to the finish line today, with their song, that’s my favorite Chicago song: Hard Habit To Break…  in case you’re wondering 2^nd place goes to the song: Beginnings…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar is inching higher…
• Gold & Silver have banner days on Tuesday!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It was a nice day yesterday, until it wasn’t.. Rain moved in, and that’s OK with me… For one day that is…  The weather people tell us that we need the rain, so I’ll go with that and move on to today. No one was outside yesterday, before the rain, I went outside to read, and it was akin to zombie zone… I saw no one on the beach, at the pool, or even walking in the hallway. So, I sat down and read until the rain was 6 minutes away… I’ve had two bad stomach days in a row and hope to end that today! Tommy James and The Shondells greet me this morning with their mega hit song: Crystal Blue Persuasion… 

Well, the dollar rocked a bit yesterday, and rolled a little more, but at the end of the day, the BBDXY was trading in the same clothes as it had on at the start of the day… 1,289 is the BBDXY that was stuck in the mud yesterday… But the euro fell further within the 1.04 handle, so my thought that the euro was ready to move past 1.05 proved that the thought was not ready for prime time…  But there was news in the land down under that we’ll get to shortly. 

But first, Gold & Sliver had banner days yesterday, with Gold gaining $37 on the day to end the day at $2,935, and Silver gained 69-cents to end the day at $32.92… Now, those were “banner days” if there ever were one in metals!

The price of Oil bumped higher to end day with a $72 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield gained a bit to end the day with a 4.55% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gained 1 index point last night… Nothing like piling on, eh? What I’m saying is the last two nights the dollar was only able to garner 1 index point in the BBDXY, and sure seems to me, that the dollar is going nowhere right now, as the markets get ready to deal with more tariffs. President Trump announced 25% tariffs on U.S. Autos, drug, and Chip imports… This tariff stuff is really becoming the 200  lb gorilla in the room, and yet we, as a country continue to add to them… Geesh!  

The price of Gold is flat to down a penny or two to start our day today… I think at this point, as Gold nears $3,000, that the Gold Bugs will be cautious moving forward, because the short paper traders are like the wolves and they’re always at the door. Silver starts our day today, down 6-cents… Same for Silver as it nears $33…   The price of Oil remained trading in the $72 handle overnight and so starts today with that price. And the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher by 2 basis points to 4.57%… 

Now, for the news from down under…. Australia’s central bank RBAZ) cut rates for the first time in more than four years but warned it was too early to declare victory over inflation and was cautious about the prospects of further easing. So, I would have liked to be in the room when the RBA made this announcement, and asked “If you’re being cautious about the prospects of further easing then why ease now? 

And not to be outdone by their kissin’ Cousins across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that they had also, cut their Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25 Basis Points (1/4%). To look under the hood here would reveal that the RBNZ’s inflation target is between 1 and 3%… And in this case inflation has not fallen withing those parameters yet… But the RBNZ is sure of their outlook that inflation will get there by midpoint of the year… 

So, last week we had the ECB, CCB and BOE cut rates… And this week it’s the RBA and RBNZ, the list is beginning to add some heft, and leaves the U.S. as what would seem to be “The One Left Holding The Bag” as if they were being prudent, when in actuality they were ahead of themselves in cutting rates last year, and now are trying to not have everyone notice their gaff! 

And soon these other Central Banks that have decided that they have or will soon defeat inflation will realize that they cut rates too soon… A prime example of this printed in the U.K yesterday, when inflation printed at 3.0%, a 10-,month high, n January and is likely to rise further soon… The Bank of England (BOE) didn’t see that coming, much like all central banks, they have blinders on… But, they’ve made their beds with rate cuts, and soon they’ll have to lay down in their mess! 

So, how many of you dear readers remember a Sunday Pfennig written by me, titled “Chuck’s Debt Solutions”… This was written over 10 years ago, maybe even 15 years ago… I went through the items in the deficit spending list that I thought we should dump immediately, but like all things with regard to the Gov’t, there was never any attempt buy either side of the aisle in D.C. Do something about their deficit spending, because? Because cutting spending doesn’t get you reelected, but more deficit spending and waste will make you a star in your local state… 

But recently a couple of the departments of the Gov’t that I thought we should take out back and depose of, have been getting some talk about their existence, and that’s a start!  One such Dept is The Dept of Education… Did you know that instead of improving test scores for reading and mathematics were lower in 2024 than they were the Dept was formed in 1980?  Nice job! NOT! And they have managed to waste Trillions of dollars!   

In short, the Dept. of Education has spent Trillions, while the students test scores are lower, but tuition at Universities has soared!  Come on Elon, your DOGE can see this as low hanging fruit, right? 

Look as far as deficit spending goes, you have to start somewhere, and make a splash… The USAID cut was a start, but the real splash will come from what Musk and Ron Paul find or don’t find at Ft. Knox, and then the Dept of Education shouldn’t be too far down the road… 

I read last night that Gold’s banner day yesterday was fueled by the report that the NY Mfg. Index gained 5.7% in January, which was a HUGE move because this data has been negative for so long now… And the Gold bugs said that indicates that inflation is still around and coming back stronger! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has some housing data, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting, of which the markets will go over with a fine-tooth comb to see if there are variations from his press conference after the last meeting… Hey! It gives these guys something to do that doesn’t involve other things…

To recap… The dollar fell asleep yesterday an at the end of the day wore the same clothes it had on at the start of the day… Gold & Silver had banner days yesterday, with Gold gaining $37 and Silver gaining 69-cents… The RBA and RBNZ both cut their internal interest rates 25 Basis Points yesterday, and Chuck questions their prudence. And Chuck revisits something he wrote 15 years ago in a Sunday Pfennig… 

For What it’s Worth…. Well, the pickings were slim this morning, but I did find this on Bloomberg.com, and it features Lola (Goldman Sachs) and their call for a higher Gold price and it can be found here: Goldman Hoists Gold Target to $3,100 on Central-Bank Appetite – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end gold target to $3,100 an ounce on central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, highlighting Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the metal.

Central-bank demand may average 50 tons a month, more than previously expected, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. Should uncertainty over economic policy persist, including on tariffs, bullion could hit $3,300 an ounce on higher speculative positioning, they said. The latter figure implies an annual gain of 26%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The precious metal has roared higher this year, setting successive records in a seven-week winning run that’s built on last year’s surge. The commodity’s sustained advance has been driven by increased purchases by central banks, a streak of rate cuts from the Fed and, more recently, mounting investor concern over US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements.

“‘We reiterate our ‘Go for Gold’ trading recommendation,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. “We see significant hedging value in long gold positions because of a potential increase in trade tensions.”

In addition, inflation fears and fiscal risks “may push central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — to buy more gold,” they said.

The more bullish outlook — which came after Goldman pushed back a year-end $3,000 forecast last month — followed official-sector purchases estimated at 108 tons in December, according to the analysts. Elsewhere, there’ll be a “gradual boost” to ETF holdings on two expected Fed cuts, they said.

The revised forecast sits alongside a host of other bullish predictions from leading banks. Among them, Citigroup Inc. said earlier in February that it expects prices to hit $3,000 an ounce within three months, with geopolitical tensions and trade wars stoked by Trump boosting demand for haven assets.”

Chuck Again… Well, you know I always say… Whatever Lola wants, she gets”… 

Market Prices 2/19/2025: American Style: A$ .6350, kiwi .5712, C$ .7035, euro 1.0427, sterling 1.2581, Swiss $1.1056, European Style: rand 18.5079, krone 11.1524, SEK 10.7513, forint 385.90, zloty 4.0076, koruna 24.0889, RUB 89.76, yen 151.80, sing 1.3434, HKD 7.7770, INR 86.90, China 7.2855, peso 20.30, BRL 5.7183, BBDXY 1,290, Dollar Index 106.98, Oil $72.46, 10-year 4.57%, Silver $32.86, Platinum $977.00, Palladium $986.00, Copper $4.64, and Gold… $2,935.38

That’s it for today… Only 3 more Pfennigs before my annual spring vacation… Next Wednesday, I will be flying back to St. Louis for an infusion and a brief stay in Cold Missouri! I have to say that I believe the tumor in my jaw has shrunk just a little bit… But dang it, the medicine sure makes me sick and tired all the time… My beloved Mizzou Tigers take on #4 rated Alabama tonight in Columbia, Mo. The home court should be of help for my Tigers… And we’re one day closer to the home spring Training opener for my beloved Cardinals! I just hope I can get through the game without stomach problems… Which means I’ll probably skip the Dean Dog!  The Babys take us to the finish line today with their song: Every Time I Think Of You…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar suffers a down week, last week…
• China claims the world needs a stable renminbi!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I sure hope you all had the opportunity to have a long 3-day weekend, with the President’s Day holiday occurring yesterday. It was a beautiful weekend, weather-wise down here in S. Floriday… Another Polar Vortex is delivering a ton of cold weather with snow up north. My beloved Cardinals are working out with full squads now, and my first game (home game) is this coming Sunday. Robert Palmer greets me this morning with his song: Sneaking Sally Through The alley… 

Well, it wasn’t a good week, last week, for the dollar… The BBDXY started the week at 1,300 ended the week at 1,287…With a major part of the downward move coming last Friday, after the Jan Retail Sales printed a very large negative number of -.9%… Those that hang on every data print to prove that the Fed Heads will cut rates at their next meeting, which happens to be on the docket for March 18-19… Yes, one of those two-day meetings so that the Fed Heads can get all their ducks in a row. The euro touched the 1.05 figure briefly on Thursday, but that visit was short-lived, and the euro finished the week at 1.0485… Not a bad showing for a currency that’s supposed to be making the death walk to parity…  Wouldn’t it be great to see the euro go on a resurrection walk instead? ‘

Gold ended the week on a sour note, as the short paper traders decided to bring Gold down a notch or two.. Gold was sold down the river by $45 on Friday to end the week at $2,883… Silver was down 14-cents to end the week at $32.23… 

Yesterday was a holiday of sorts but, Gold & Silver still traded, and Gold gained $5 to end the day at $2,888… And Silver gained 23-cents to end the day at $32.46. The price of Oil ended the day yesterday trading with a $71 handle, with the bond market closed the 10-year Treasury’s yield was 4.51%… Last week the 10-year’s yield saw a major downward move, that had to be brought about by Large sums of bonds being purchased, with large sums of money… And my only guess as to whom that could be: The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in the bond market, thus keeping a lid on yields once again… 

You see if bond yields kept rising, if would make them quite attractive to U.S. investors, who would most likely switch some stocks for bonds… And the Gov’t can’t have the stock market circling the bowl…. That would mean the economy isn’t doing too well…  I’m just saying…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar kind of tried to rally, but in the end, it garnered a gain of just 1 index point in the BBDXY… The euro remains below 1.05, but prepared to pounce on the figure should the dollar get sold today. The dollar faces some major hurdles in the coming day/ weeks… So, make sure you are diversified in your investment portfolio for times like that are coming… Gold has shrugged off Friday’s negative price action, and has rallied overnight by $26, and Silver has gained 25-cents. I was explaining this scenario to someone out on the deck last week, and explained that Gold is in a bullish trend, and therefore every time the short paper traders take a run at the metal, it gets through it and returns to its prevailing underlying trend.  Today’s price action, so far, is a perfect example of what I was talking about…  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $71 handle overnight. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond didn’t budge overnight and starts today trading with a 4.51% yield. 

Well, China seems to have a strong affection for their currency, the renminbi, or yuan for the members of media that can’t pronounce or spell renminbi… China announced yesterday that a Stable Yuan is Key to World Economy Hit by Strong Dollar…  Well, they are correct that the dollar got to be so overbought that it was ridiculous. And that it wasn’t doing the world economy too much good at those strong levels… But to say the world needs a stable renminbi is stretching the truth, now, isn’t it? If so, then stop talking about devaluing the currency to offset Trump’s tariffs! 

You know me, and if there’s a different story out there than the one everyone is repeating, then that’s the one I’m pinning my colors to that mast….  Here goes, as this is something I’ve been juggling around in my head for a couple of weeks now… OK, everyone and their brother, are repeating the line that the LBMA is short physical Gold because they want to avoid the rumored tariffs that the POTUS is rumored to be putting on Gold & Silver… That comes to the U.S.   and that idea swam a few laps with me, but then I read that DOGE head Musk wants to audit the Gold at Fort Knox… And not just the numbers of bars, but what’s behind them. Are they leased out already? Are they held for future swaps?  if so, the U.S. has no claim on the bar that’s in the vault.  So, the U.S. HAS to get the books cooked just right to show all this physical Gold in the vault…  And that’s the reason for this all to be happening… 

What do you think of my different story? I personally like it and that’s the story I’m sticking to! Because for years when Ron Paul was in the senate, he would call for an audit of Ft Knox because he knew that these leases were shipping Gold out the door, in hopes that it comes back…  But what if the country that we leased the Gold to collapses and they have to sell all their Gold to pay off debt, then the U.S. comes knocking on the door and says, the lease if now up, we want our Gold back… But there’s no Gold there to give them…. And then this scenario begins to multiply, and soon the U.S. is left holding the bag, and even if the U.S. decided to revalue Gold, it would be a paper transaction only, so go to your debtors and hand them your inventory sheet, and watch them laugh at your all the way down the street! 

Oh, and guess who’s going to help Elon Musk with his audit of Ft. Knox? None other than Ron Paul! You know, it’s shameful that we as a country have dismissed candidates through the years because of their thinking outside of the box… Remember Ross Perot? And Ron Paul? Just to name a couple… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty, with just 4 Fed Heads speaking… I think the markets are still reeling from the disastrous Retail Sales print last week… Not the rate cut bugs… But everyone else…In fact, there’s very little in the economic print pipeline for us to look forward to this week… 

To recap… The dollar lost some ground last week and Chuck thinks there will be more ground to lose going forward, as long as the PPT keeps their dirty decrepit fingers out of the cookie jar… Gold went up early in the week and back down later in the week… And Chuck gives us his latest greatest idea regarding the rumored audit to be held at Ft. Knox… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to from the good folks at GATA, so there will be no link on GATA to read it all, but not to worry, I also found it on the FT, and It’s about Gold, of course, and how it’s become the “Trump Trade” And you can find it here: Soaring gold becomes top ‘Trump trade’

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold has become the best performing “Trump trade” in recent weeks, outperforming other major asset classes since the U.S. president’s inauguration, as fears of a trade war and a potential hit to global growth fuel demand for the haven metal.

Bullion has risen in price every week this year as Trump starts to impose sweeping tariffs, and hit a new record of $2,942.70 per troy ounce this week. It has surged almost 7% since before the January 20 inauguration despite slipping on Friday.

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In contrast, Wall Street’s S&P 500 stocks index has risen less than 2 per cent, while other popular Trump trades such as bets on a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields or bitcoin have backfired.

“When trade contracts, gold takes off,” said James Steel, precious metals analyst at HSBC, pointing to previous examples during the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.

“The more tariffs that go on, the more this is going to disrupt world trade, and the better it will be for gold,” he added. 

The bullion rally has been supercharged by a growing stockpile in New York, which has increased 116 per cent since the election, as traders and banks rush to move gold out of London, the biggest physical trading hub, and into the US. That has created a weeks-long queue to withdraw gold from the Bank of England vaults.

Trump’s latest tariff salvo includes a plan to introduce “reciprocal” tariffs on US trading partners, including both allies and adversaries. He has also imposed additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China.

Analysts say a global trade war will depress economic growth and fuel inflation — factors that typically benefit bullion.”

Chuck again…. Well, we’ve talked about most of that stuff previously, here… But it’s always to get a second opinion…. 

Market Prices 2/18/2025: American Style: A$.6351, kiwi .5703, C$ .7041, euro 1.0485, sterling 1.2591, Swiss $1.1088, European Style: rand 18.4342, krone 11.1628, SEK 10.7236, forint 384.10, zloty 3.9441, koruna 24.0081, RUB 91.56, yen 151.80, sing 1.3430, HKD 7.7758, INR 86.90, China 7.2800, peso 20.26, BRL 5.7113, BBDXY 1,289, Dollar Index 106.73, Oil $71.23, 10-year 4.51%, Silver $32.48, Platinum $965.00, Palladium $978.00, Copper $4.63, and Gold… $2,914.42

That’s it for today… Ok, everyone sync up your calendars… I’m here the rest of the week, try the veal… And make sure you tip the waitresses…  Next week get cut short, as I will be heading back to St. Louis for my 4th infusion… You know, I aways begin to feel a little better the further from the previous infusion… And then afterward, all the fun starts anew… But this time when I return to S. Florida, I’ll be on my annual spring vacation that I mentioned to y’all about 2 weeks ago… I’m starting to get excited about the first spring training game coming up this Sunday, I’m like a kid at Christmas, marking off the days! I always get nostalgic, and misty eyed, the first time I climb the last step at Roger Dean, and see the Green grass, the perfectly manicured dirt infield, and the thought goes through my head that I’m so lucky to still be alive and to get to watch baseball… My nomination for best rock guitarist, Alvin Lee, takes us to the finish line today with a live version of his song: Goin’ Home…  Have you ever seen the footage of him playing at Woodstock? Stunning!  Ok , I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Not much movement in the dollar yesterday or last night
• Gold & Silver continue their assault on prices

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all, especially for my good friend, Dewey, who celebrates his birthday today! And knowing Dewey like I do, he will indeed be having a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today! So, Happy Birthday my good friend… Is that an age!  HA! (inside joke)  Well, yesterday, I hit send on the Pfennig, and then right back to sleep for a few more hours and then awoke ready to take on the day! Marty Balin greets me this morning with his song: Hearts… 

Well, front and center this morning, I wanted to pound on the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel for telling more lies… Or better yet, not coming out with the real truth… You see the St. Louis Fed sends me an email of their findings from time to time and yesterday’s letter made me seethe… The Fed Heads claimed that the soaring inflation of 2022-23, was caused by the pandemic… Not a word about all the money supply that they had added for over a decade, or the zero interest rates they held for a decade… Not a single word, for shoot it couldn’t have been their fault that inflation soared!  See why I wanted to get this off my chest first thing out of the starter’s blocks this morning?

OK… The dollar gained 1 index point yesterday, after a “hot STUPID CPI” printed… The euro moved past the 1.0

4 figure, and the other currencies at least sat up and noticed… I’ll get to the STUPID CPI in a minute, but first… Bonds had their largest one day upward move this year, so far.. The 10-year Treasury’s yield climbed to end the day trading with a 4.61% yield… I guess the Fed Heads had more important things to worry about to bother themselves with keeping a lid on bond yields…

Gold rallied in the face of several attempts by the short paper traders to see Gold gain $7, and that was after starting the day down $2… And Silver gained 39-cents to end the day at $32.25, while Gold ended the day at $2.905.

Not seeing their efforts succeed elsewhere, the short paper traders turned to Oil contracts, and the price of Oil dropped $2 to end the day trading with a $72 handle. 

Inflation, as measured by the STUPID CPI saw an upward move, that moved the mom inflation rate to 3.0%… This is the highest the monthly STUPID CPI has been in 7 months! So, in my humble opinion the Fed Heads previous rate cuts are filtering throughout the economy, as rate movements tend to take some time to work themselves through… So, it was a good thing that Jerome and boys & girls at the Eccles Bldg. Decided to leave rates unchanged at their last meeting…  You may recall me saying then that the next rate move may very well not be a rate cut, but a rate hike… And I believe that thought has been on the minds of the bond boys for several months now. 

The other STUPID CPI numbers were: Core yoy CPI 3.3%… And the monthly increase was .5%…  Hey, Psst! Fed Heads! Are you seeing this rising inflation trend? I know that usually you have to be hit over the head with a 2X4 to see the problem before acting on it! 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar inched higher by 1 index point to 1,301… The euro fell back below the 1.04 figure… There are so many analysts out in the cold world, that believe that the euro is going to parity with the dollar this year… I find it difficult to believe when the euro does rally, with all that negativity toward it…  Gold starts the day today, up $9, and Silver up 3-cents…I think the markets are still trying to digest the PPI # this morning… But when they realize that this means consumer inflation is going to rise, they’ll finally come around… 

The price of Oil starts today trading with a $70 handle, and the 10-year’s yield is 4.61% to start our Thursday… 

The Edleman Trust Index printed recently, and it showed that the 33,000 U.S. residents rated trust in the U.S. Gov’t very low… This Index measures the trust in : Gov’t, Business, and media… And all three were very low rated… Go figure… If they had surveyed me, I would have put them at the bottom! 

I’ll only watch the local news shows, no cable new, no national news… Because? I don’t trust those other guys!

You know…  the funny thing (not funny ha-ha) is that for the most part of Gold’s rise the U.S. investors are still ignoring the impressive upward growth of Gold… 

And here’s a headline from Bloomberg.com this morning: “Eggs Soar 15% in a Month With US Grocery Shelves Empty” And that, alone is being blamed for the rise in the STUPID CPI…  I find that to be questionable because, in the past the BLS would simply substitute an item when the item in the basket of goods use to price Inflation became too expensive…  So, why not a substitution for eggs, BLS? Oh, that’s right, I almost forgot, the BLS has no reason any longer to make data look good, for the new POTUS…

Well, today we’ll see what new rabbits the POTUS pulls from his hat, as he will announce reciprocal tariffs, as the Eurozone begins to huff and puff about putting tariffs on U.S. imports…  This is becoming akin to a hand of poker, I’ll see your raise, and raise you further…  And then I read an article on the FXSTREET.com that talked about tariffs would most likely produce inflation this time, as 2018’s tariffs were at a different time and space, and situation… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard already printed PPI (wholesale inflation) this morning for Jan… And PPI last month and grew to 3% for the month, and 3.5% YOY…  So, don’t look now but that’s inflation that’s in the pipework, working its way to consumer inflation…  We also saw the usual Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And they remained above 200,000… When will all the axing of Gov’t employees begin to get counted? 

To recap… The corrupt media called the STUPID CPI a “hot CPI”… Brother! Give me a break!  I mean the STUPID CPI did rise last month but hot?  And Chuck questions why the BLS didn’t do one of their hedonic adjustments to the cost of eggs, which have soared and was blamed for the increase in the STUPID CPI.. Gold gained a little yesterday, the dollar gained a little, Silver gained a little more, Bonds yields soared, and Oil got whacked… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I talked a lot this morning about inflation an wholesale inflation, and then ran across this article on MarketWatch.com and well, here it is: “Wholesale prices pop and point to persistent inflation pressures in guts of the U.S. economy – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “The numbers: Wholesale prices rose sharply in January in another sign that lingering inflationary pressures in the economy will keep high U.S. interest rates from falling much anytime soon.

The producer-price index increased 0.4% last month, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

The increase in wholesale inflation in the past 12 months rose to 3.5% from 3.3%. That’s the highest rate in almost two years.

The PPI report follows a sharp uptick in consumer prices in January, which rattled financial markets and raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates this year.

High borrowing costs have punished home buyers and made it more expensive for people to buy cars. The cost of borrowing has also discouraged business investment.

High rates tend to slow the economy over time, however, and reduce the rate of inflation. The Fed has paused further rate cuts until it sees more evidence that inflation is decelerating again.”

Chuck again, you’ve heard it all before, but it’s always worth it to circle the wagons and revisit…

Market Price 2/13/2025: American Style: A$ .6281, kiwi .5629, C$ .7006, euro 1.0389, sterling 1.2469, Swiss $1.1016, European Style: rand 18.6211, krone 11.2711, SEK 10.8625, forint 386.89, zloty 4.0141, koruna 24.1262, RUB 91.20, yen 153.82, sing 1.3572, HKD 7.7866, INR 86.90, China 7.2978, peso 20.64, BRL 5.7878, BBDXY 1,301, Dollar Index 107.83, Oil $70.64, 10-year 4.61%, Silver $32.26, Platinum $1,001.00, Palladium $993.00, Copper $4.73, and Gold… $2,914.77

That’s it for today, and now the sad part… Today would have been my oldest sister’s birthday, Brenda was very young when she was take from us with ovarian Cancer… Brenda taught me slow dance, to tie my shoe, she took me to my very first day of school and stayed by my side until I had stopped crying… Miss you, Brenda… Ok, enough! I don’t need to end the week on a sad note! There was a friend of ours that used to come to Spring Training with us, his name was Jay, and he was a mountain of a man: 6’8”… And he had a twin brother! But what I’m getting at is that he used to say each day when we met for breakfast.. “Sunny and 80 again today”… Well, for the next 5 days he would be bang on again! Oh! Tomorrow is Valentine’s Day! Happy Valentine’s Day to all your sweethearts out there! Little Feat take us to the finish line today with their song: Fat Man In A Bathtub…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Tuesday, but Gold ran into short sellers…
• Chinese consumers are buying physical Gold despite the price!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  It was a “rinse, repeat day” weather wise here in S. Florida, an I’ll begin to sound like a broken record if I keep repeating that each day this week… My stomach was felling somewhat iffy yesterday, and I had to cut short my time on the deck in the sun because… But by evening I felt much better… My spring training entourage will be here in 3 weeks, so I had better toughen up! You’ve only got 2 more days, to secure a Valentine’s Day gift for your sweetheart. And, pitchers and catcher began showing up early for Spring training yesterday… The Guess Who greets me this morning with their mega hit song: These Eyes…

Well, the dollar ran into a roadblock yesterday and the BBDXY lost 4 index points. Jerome Powell’s speech on Capitol Hill didn’t help Gold any yesterday, and he’ll repeat his speech to the house today. Gold lost $10 on the day and closed at $2,898. Silver started the day getting whacked, and was down 43-cents to start the day, but Silver rallied and finished the day down 24-cents, and closed at $31.86… 

The price of Oil is range bound again, and yesterday it slipped below $73 to end the day trading with a $72 handle.  And after Powell’s speech bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury’s yield closing the day at 4.54%, the highest it has been in a couple of weeks. 

I keep mentioning Powell’s speech, so here’s the skinny… Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, told lawmakers yesterday that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was in “no hurry to cut rates” Apparently there are too many questions surrounding The POTUS’s tariffs and how they affect the economy… 

Of course, the architect of these tariffs believes that the tariffs will make American’s rich again… But what about all of us who have never been rich to begin with? You know… The dwindling Middle Class… Will pay the brunt of the inflation that comes with the tariffs… 

OK, let’s talk about something else…

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar fought back and starts today up one index point in the BBDXY at 1,301… Ok, I know this isn’t what happened but is sure seems like it… I’m talking about the short paper traders switching over to concentrate on Gold and leave Silver to its own devices… One short paper trader says to another, “hey, we hit Silver pretty hard yesterday, let’s switch to Gold today… And Gold is down $23 to start the day today, while Silver is up 16-cents… As you know I read Ed Steer’s letter each morning, and one of the things he does is give the high and low ticks of Gold & Silver… That way, you sure can see the short paper traders step in and do their thing… Www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of oil fell further into the $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year didn’t move much and starts the day trading with a 4.53% yield… 

Yesterday, I talked about how we as a country, are going to eliminate minting pennies…  While we’re at it… It also costs 12-cents to make a nickel…  Is the nickel the next to see the axe? I see a lot of rounding up on prices in the future, don’t you?

The BOE cuts rates last week, of which we’ve discussed previously… The thing that was missing though was that th BOE decided to announce that more rate cuts would be coming….  Notice they said “cuts” and not just “a cut” So, if you hole sterling, you might want to transfer / cross that with another currency from a country that isn’t, so hell bent, and whiskey bound to cut rates multiple times this year.  

The pound sterling doesn’t have the offset currency to the dollar claim that the euro has and proudly uses any chance it gets…  Speaking of the euro, inflation is still a problem in the Eurozone albeit at a lower rate these days, but still the ECB wants to cut rates too…  The Bank of Canada is doing it, the Bank of England is doing it, the ECB has done it and the question is will they do it again?  But the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, has stated that they are in no hurry to cut rates again… So, that should make the dollar stronger VS these other currencies that seeing their collective rate cut. 

Bad news for any thoughts that the dollar’s run is over… However, There are still questions about the tariffs, so we’ll have to wait-n-see… And… Remember, all of the countries out there that are ridding themselves of their dollars in reserve and replacing the dollars with physical Gold… So, there are two main reasons that the currencies may still be able to hold their own VS the dollar in the near future…

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this from the Moscow Times…”Surging financial flows in January 2025 suggest Russia’s economy is growing more strongly than recently indicated, the Russian Central Bank said Friday.

The volume of incoming payments processed through the Central Bank’s payment system rose by 8.8% compared to the average level of the fourth quarter of 2024. When excluding sectors such as mining, petroleum products and public administration, the increase was even more pronounced at 11.4%.

All major industry groups witnessed growth, with the most substantial uptick coming in sectors driven by investment demand.”

Chuck again… I don’t mean to be waving a flag for Russia here, but when a country shows strong growth despites a slew of economic sanctions, it needs to be talked about…  and one of the reasons for Russia’s growth is their dependence on physical Gold…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today will see the STUPID CPI! You may recall that the Dec. STUPID CPI yoy was 3.2%.. And using my fine tuned new math skills, 3.2% is greater than 2.0% (The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s) target inflation rate…  MarketWatch had this bit about an alternative inflation calculator: “The five-year breakeven inflation rate — a measure of average expected inflation over the medium term — was at 2.6% on Tuesday and has largely remained above its 50- and 200-day moving averages since late October, according to FactSet data. The message it is currently sending is that inflation could remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for years.”

To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, but so too was Gold & Silver…. The old saying was that these two (dollar & Gold) moved in opposite directions… But in recent times, these two seem to move in tandem…  

The BOE, ECB, CBB, all have cut rates an it will take a lot to keep the dollar from blasting away at these three…

For What It’s Worth… Well, for years the Chinese Gov’t prohibited Chinese consumers from owning physical Gold, but that has all changed for the better, and Gold is the beneficiary of this change… This article is about all that and can be found here: Chinese consumers rush to buy gold, as prices keep rising – Global Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “A customer tries on gold jewelry in a shop in Huzhou, East China’s Zhejiang Province on February 7, 2025. China’s 2025 Spring Festival holidays sparked a gold purchase rush among consumers, even as the price of spot gold hit a record of $2,860 per ounce on Friday. Photo: VCG

Chinese consumers are rushing to buy gold, as gold prices continue to hit new record highs due reportedly to growing uncertainty in the global economy posed by the US’ dramatic trade policy changes.

“I regret not having bought the gold bracelet that was on my list before the Spring Festival. The price is about 1,000 yuan ($136.9) higher now,” a Beijing resident surnamed Qian told the Global Times on Tuesday, while shopping at a Chow Sang Sang store on Wangfujing street, one of the Chinese capital’s busiest shopping areas.

Qian said that she rushed to buy gold products after seeing the continuously rising gold prices. “Buying gold can be a good investment,” she said.

Gold prices hit a record high on Tuesday with spot gold hitting a peak of $2,942.70 per ounce in Asian trading hours, Reuters reported. Reuters attributed the price surge to “safe-haven demand as US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports heightened concerns about a possible global trade war.”

In addition, following the recent weakening of US economic data, there has been a sharp rise in risk aversion in the market, which greatly boosted demand for gold, according to some reports.

“We have raised our gold forecasts to $3,000 per ounce over the next 12 months, up from $2,850 previously,” UBS Chief Investment Office said in a report released on Monday.”

Chuck Again…Things couldn’t be better for Gold than right now, so $3,000 here we go!  Well, there are those bumps in the road when the short paper traders crawl out of the wall boards, and scatter about the kitchen… (now that’s an image that cringe when typing it!)

Market prices 2/12/2025: American Style: A$ .6276, kiwi .5645, C$ .6990, euro 1.0369, sterling 1.2444, Swiss $1.0965, European Style: rand 18.4572, krone 11.2488, SEK 10.8908, forint 388.40, zloty 4.0240, koruna 24.1626, RUB 94.47, yen 153.50, sing 1.3654, HKD 7.7888, INR 86.89, China 7.3089, peso 20.54, BRL 5.7646, BBDXY 1,301, Dollar Index 107.99, Oil $73.53, 10-year 4.53%, Silver $31.69, Platinum $990.00, Palladium $974.00, Copper $4.60, and Gold… $2,875.50

That’s it for today… I sure don’t know what hit me yesterday, but at least it didn’t hang around all day… I sure didn’t get if from something I ate on Monday… I hardly ate anything! Good Old fun-loving Chuck is no longer… I’m down to a weight that I last experienced while on the road playing my guitar 52 years ago! And I haven’t partaken in my fave beverage in over two weeks… This is what 18 years living with cancer does to you… I’m not whining here, because my mother taught me that people don’t want to hear you whine… And they can’t help you! My beloved Mizzou Tigers will get back on the court tonight VS Oklahoma… One of the nurses in the infusion center last week say my Mizzou cap and said: “I went to Mizzou, back when Norm Stewart was the BB coach, back then the BB team was always good, and the football team was awful, and last year it was the other way around, but not this year!” Wild Cherry takes us to the finish line today with their one-hit wonder song: Play That Funky Music.. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please… Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• Metals get sold early on Tuesday

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I’m back in my winter home after spending 4 days at home after my infusion… It was too darn cold there for me! I was so happy to be back where it is warm! Son Andrew visited Saturday night with his two kids (Braden and Evie) and Kathy ordered Raisin’ Canes’ chicken… And I couldn’t eat! What an awful thing to do to me! I absolutely adore fried Chicken! Paul McCartney greets me this morning with his song: Every night…

Well, the dollar hasn’t moved much while I was away… The BBDXY last Tuesday was 1,300 and yesterday it closed at 1,303… So, up 3 index points in the BBDXY in a week… Not even the woeful print in the Jobs Jamboree last Friday, could sink the dollar… But, over the weekend, President Trump announced new tariffs, and the whole hand wringing started again… We’ll have to wait-n-see where the new tariff talks take the dollar, eh?  Gold on the other hand has continued its assault on higher pricing, with only one down day in the last 4 trading days. Gold rallied strongly on Friday, after only 143,000 jobs were created in January… Gold finished the week at $2,860, and Silver finished the week at $31.78… 

Yesterday, Gold moved past $2,900 and Silver past $32 on their way to $3,000 and who knows where with Silver? Gold closed yesterday @ $2,908, and Silver closed yesterday @ $32.10… I found this on Kitco.com last night: “In his latest note, famed investor Dennis Gartman, creator of The Gartman Letter, said that the gold trade is looking a little stretched.

“I remain long-term bullish on gold, but the trade is becoming a bit crowded,” he said. 

Chuck again… Dennis goes on to say that we could see a correction in Gold before it starts its move higher again…. 

I would use any correction in Gold as a buying opportunity…. Seriously, folks, there might not be another dip in the prices, and that’s only IF we do see a dip in the price of Gold… 

The price of Oil ended yesterday trading with a $72 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield closed at 4.50%, At what point does someone with real journalist guts look under the hood and call out the Fed’s for keeping a lid on the 10-year’ yield?  

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar took on some water, not much, but some as the BBDXY gave back 1 index point overnight. Well, I guess the dollar bugs aren’t as convinced about the dollar’s ability to rally with tariffs as they were previously, but of course, that can all change in a NY Minute.  I still expect the dollar to gain some with all the talk of tariffs… But for now, it’s just wallowing in the mud…  Gold is giving back some of its $42 gain yesterday as Gold sees some selling that has taken it down $8.. And Silver is getting whacked again! Silver is down 43-cents to start the day today… Short paper traders? Probably… They sure do seem to have an axe to grind whenever Silver starts to rally.  And in the latest report on Ed Steer’s weekend letter, there are now 182 days of production in Silver to equal the ounces of Silver the short trades represent. It’s amazing to me how Silver can ever mount a strong, long-term rally with all those shorts not standing for delivery… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher to trade with a $73 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield is rising this morning and trades with a 4.53% yield… 

I want to take a moment here to talk about Copper… I don’t know if you follow it or not, but Copper has really been on a tear lately… Once it moved back above $4 at the start of January, this year… And after seeing some selling yesterday by $2.55, Copper has reached $4.68…  Not that many people are invested in Copper, but the key here is that Copper’s rally may unleash Silver.. The two are related, there are technical reasons too, too deep to dive into now… But the EVs, the wiring needs etc. has been behind Copper’s rally… 

Did you hear that the POTUS wants to eliminate pennies? Right now, and for the last couple of decades, minting pennies is a losing deal for the Gov’t. It actually costs 2-cents to make 1 penny… Over time all the existing pennies will have been taken out of the system, so… Does that make you want to save your pennies in a mason jar now?

Th Bank of England (BOE ) cut rates last week 25 Basis Points (1/4%) to 4.50%… The BOE thinks that they have defeated inflation….  How’d they do that? Cut deficit spending? No… Have rates that were much greater than the rate of inflation? No…Reduce Money Supply? I doubt it…. 

Well, the BLS, which many of you have sent me notes through the years and have dropped the L to just BS… Had to under the cover of darkness make an adjustment and take back 105,000 jobs to the surveys for last month, that they had, in previous months added out of thin air….  So, now that there’s a new POTUS, so no reason to make the jobs creation look good?  Don’t get me started on how these agencies are not political….  Oh! I almost forgot to mention that the BLS announced that they had to revise the number of jobs (that were reported ) downward for 2024…  And still no one from that organization gets fired… 

I had a dear reader send me a note the other day asking me what changed, in that years ago, I spent the majority of my letter talking about currencies and didn’t allocate much space to Gold… But all that changed about 6 year ago… why?

Well… There just wasn’t enough going on in the currencies at that time, but there had been quite a bit of interest and news regarding the precious metals, so I announced here in the Pfennig at that time that the format of the letter would be changing…. 

But, as you will see in a few minutes when you get to the FWIW article today, that currency trading is making a comeback…. So, you won’t want to have missed that! 

And then one more piece about Gold… This time it’s from Bill Bonner from his Monday letter: “In the autumn of 1999, US stocks had never been more expensive. It was time to get up from the table…time to walk away from equities…and put our wealth back into real money, gold.

We weren’t trying to fructify it. We weren’t looking for capital gains or for dividends. We didn’t want a good return on our money; we just wanted a return OF our money.

That’s what real money is supposed to do. Not go up. Not go down. Just not go away.”

Chuck again… Back in 2000 Bill announced that his sell the DOW buy Gold was his trade of the decade…  Well, it’s been going a lot longer than that as Gold has been the better of the two for over 2 decades…. And still, call your stock jockey on the phone as ask him or her to buy you some Gold… And you’ll hear crickets…. 

The Data Cupboard this week starts off slow with nothing but a slew of Fed Head speakers out on the road, spreading their lies…  This is the week each year when the Fed Chairman goes to Capitol Hill and speaks on the economy to first the Senat on one day, and then the House on the second day…  I have this feeling that Fed Chairman Powell, will be treated rather rudely… I don’t know why, it’s just my spider sense tingling…

To recap… The dollar basically drifted in the last 4 trading days, gaining only 3 index points in the BBDXY. But, the POTUS is banging on the tariff drums once again, and judging from the last time we went through this, the markets see to like the tariffs, so the dollar could be in for another rally.  Gold has traded to new heights, and is looking at what’s beyond $2,900, and the BOE cut rates last week.. Chuck wonders why?

For What It’s Worth… Well, I teased a bit about this article above, and it’s how currency trading may be making a comeback and it can be found here: Hedge Funds, Banks Boost Currency Trading as Trump Tariffs Revive Volatility – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “In the decade Tim Brooks has been buying and selling currencies, he’s grown used to feeling that the action is usually elsewhere. He and his team at Optiver Holding BV, a top trading firm in London, rely on volatility to generate quick profits from sudden moves in exchange rates. But dramatic swings largely evaporated after the global financial crisis of 2008, when the biggest central banks began cutting and then raising interest rates more or less synchronously. Occasional bursts of excitement notwithstanding—such as last year’s surge in the Japanese yen following a surprise interest-rate hike—currency trading ceded the spotlight to the stock and bond desks

With his firm’s average daily foreign exchange volumes doubling from 2024 levels, Brooks has found himself at the beating heart of the trading floor. A few months ago Optiver switched to round-the-clock operations to meet rising demand. One trader was relocated to Singapore to launch currency trading there, and another was moved from the commodities desk to Brooks’ foreign exchange team. “During most of my career, FX has been the asset class with the lowest volatility and the least interest from investors,” says Brooks, who joined Optiver as a trainee and today oversees foreign exchange options trading. “Now there’s more potential for price movement—and a lot more interest coming in.”

Chuck again… Well, there’s chance… Because a Joaquin Andujar used to say: ‘Cause you never know!

Market Prices 2/11/2025: American Style: A$ .6273, kiwi .5640, C$ .6720, euro 1.0323, sterling 1.2364, Swiss $1.0893, European Style: rand 18.4636, krone 11.2147, SEK 10.9048, forint 390.70, zloty 4.0433, koruna 24.2960, RUB 96.75, yen 152.30, sing 1.3660, HKD 7.7931, INR 86.83, China 7.3071, peso 20.61, BRL 5.7914, BBDXY 1,303, Dollar Index 108.23, Oil $73.38, 10-year 4.53%, Silver $31.67, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $974.00, Copper $4.68, and Gold… $2,900.26

That’s if for today… Congrats to the Philadelphia Eagles and their fans, in what turned out to be a very boring game, they won the Super Bowl… I even switched to the menu to try and find something else to watch, but there was nothing that floated my boat, so I went back to the game… Yesterday was absolutely beautiful weather-wise here in S. Florida, after taking care of a lot of personal stuff, I went outside for the last couple of hours of sun on the deck. I’m reading a book now titled “The Things Our Fathers saw” it’s about the accounts of quite a few living service men that fought in the Pacific region in WWII… Our country suffered a lot of lives lost in the region. And only going by what was taught in school, they the U.S. won the war, I am being educated by these living warriors… I have a treat for all the older folks today, Ray Charles takes us to the finish line today with his song: You Don’t Know Me… I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself….

Chuck Butler

• Nothing but short paper trades seem to faze Gold & Silver…
• The Cowboy State is full of smart people!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I never made it outside yesterday, you see, I lost a lot of sleep Sunday night with my bad stomach, and so, after hitting send on the Pfennig yesterday, I took my own advice and went back to sleep… Util 2 PM! But then, I was ready to go! But I was running out of sun time! Then the rain came, and went and came and went, before finally going away… Yesterday brought some interesting news, so, let’s get to that… The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with one of my favorite Stones Songs: Can’t You Hear Me Knockin’

Well, let’s start this with a song, that President Trump must have been singing yesterday when he announced he was delaying the Mexican tariffs…. “I was only joking, my dear, Looking for a way to hide my fear

What kind of fool was I? I could never win” Apologies to Rod Stewart! 

Yes, showing his hand to the Mexicans, that he really wanted to negotiate with them, (how do you negotiate Immigration?)  he pulled their tariffs…. And the dollar gained 2 index points on the day, in the BBDXY… You may recall that yesterday morning the BBDXY was up 8 index points…. So there was no joy in Mudville…. For the tariff hawks…

Gold gained $21 on the day, and closed at $2,816.60… Silver gained 41-cents, and closed at $31.61… It didn’t take long for the metals to climb back on the rally tracks and get to moving toward their next goal… Which would be $3,000 for Gold, and $35 for Silver… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit yesterday and ended the day trading with a $73 handle. The U.S. Treasury’s yield bumped higher and ended the day trading with a $4.56% yield….

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar slipped by 2 index points overnight… I wouldn’t put any markers on the dollar staying there all day…. Gold is up $20 to start our day today, and Silver has gained 20-cents… It appears to be a good day for the currencies and metals today, but we’ll have to be patient and wait until the markets close here later today. The price of Oil has slipped again and has fallen to trade with a $71 handle. When the markets were tense with bad intent, Oil shined, but not that the POTUS has shown his hand… All’s quiet on the Western Front… 

Speaking of Gold… Did you hear that the state of Wyoming senate has voted favorably on legislation that would establish a stockpile of gold for the Cowboy State.

Sponsored by sound money champion, Sen. Bob Ide, and backed by Money Metals Exchange and the Sound Money Defense League, Senate File 96 mandates the state treasurer to invest $10 million of state funds in securely stored physical gold and silver. The bill was widely supported, passing out of the chamber with a 25-6 vote.

This will become a regular occurrence with the states making this announcement… For the folks in the states close to Wyoming will call their congress representatives and ask them why they haven’t done that yet! And from there it spreads around the country.. 

The currencies from Mexico and Canada led the performance charts yesterday, as their tariffs were pulled in a now you see them now you don’t performance from the POTUS!  Take your shots while you can you two… For the tariffs war will return…. 

Hey! And yesterday, Feb.3, was the day the music died….  Don’t know what I’m talking about?  On Feb 3, 1959 the plane carrying : Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and the Big Bopper, crashed, and years later Don McClean sand about that was the day the music died….  A little history for you young folks that had never even heard about that trio of performers…  Buddy Holly would have become the symbol of Rock music if he hadn’t won the coil flip on who was going to fly to the next gig in Iowa, and who was going to have to drive the bus through the ice and snow…. 

That was quite the slip President Trump put to the markets yesterday… Just when you think you have him figured out, he pulls a stunt like that…. Don’t get me wrong here, I’m no fan of tariffs, and his tariffs were going to start a global trade war that flowed into a global depression. But a direction is a direction… And… I was taught that if someone tells you he’s going to do something, expect him to do it, otherwise, you don’t want to deal with him… 

Gold & Silver don’t seem to be affected whether the tariffs are implemented or not… To Gold & Silver the boogeyman is the short paper trader and his ilk….  And believe this or don’t… Neither Gold nor Silver are in overbought positions on the RSI right now… And I doubt it would matter if they were…. 

I failed to mention above that the tariffs were pulled from Canada too… But, so far the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports from the U.S. are still in play.. And now there is word from China that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will likely loosen the grips on the renminbi… In other words.. Allow the markets to take the currency lower… (in value to the dollar) 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ISM Manufacturing Index hidden with all the other non-economic data, and there was a surprise… For 27 months the ISM has been below 50, but in December it rose to 51.2%!   That was a long time to print negative, eventually it was going to go back above 50…  For those you new to class, the 50 figure is the line in the sand that demarcation between expansion (above 50) and Contraction (below 50)

Today, we’ll see Dec. Factory Orders (which will probably be negative) and Job Openings (which will be around 8 Million) 

Hey! I’ve got an idea for the BLS, or the King of made-up numbers!  Just add those 8 Million job openings to the Jobs created category… Now, they would have to break then up so as to not gain attention to the large number! Why not! That’s about as useful as their made-up numbers now! 

OK, you know I’m just kidding my friends… The last thing the BLS needs is another reason to create Jobs out of thin air! 

To recap… Trump was only joking about the tariffs…. As he sings along with Rod Stewart this morning. The dollar backed off its early morning gain to only gain 2 index points yesterday. Gold & Silver are on a roll and not affected by any outside noise right now… 

For What It’s Worth…. This article is a bit hyperbolic and a bit mostly likely to come… It’s about Lynette Zang CEO of Zang Enterprises sounding off and sounding a lot like Chuck, so with that in mind, you can find it here: Banks are ‘big casinos’: When the system implodes, it’ll take everything with it – Lynette Zang | Kitco News, 

Or, here your snippet: “Consumer-driven economies are struggling because incomes are not keeping pace with the cost of living, forcing people to rely on credit cards, Zang explained.

With credit card delinquencies rising, it indicates that “those credit cards have been maxed out,” and consumers cannot take on more debt. This is not just an issue for individuals but also for governments and corporations, though “individuals just have fewer choices than governments.”

Defaults on U.S. credit card loans have surged to their highest levels since 2010, marking a troubling sign for the financial health of many Americans, according to industry data collected by BankRegData. On top of that, credit card lenders have written off $46 billion in delinquent loan balances during the first nine months of 2024 – a staggering 50% increase from the same period last year.

This comes as hopes for significant interest rate cuts in 2025 dampened at the end of 2024 as the Federal Reserve signaled only modest reductions this year. The CME FedWatch Tool forecasts a nearly 100% chance of a hold at this week’s Fed meeting.

The banking system as a ‘big casino’

The banking system has shifted from traditional lending to high-stakes trading. “ Banks make more of their money on trading … The banks have become huge casinos, and those casinos are getting even more risky,” stated Zang.

This increased leverage, or “debt upon debt upon debt,” makes the system vulnerable to collapse. “The leverage inside of the system makes things look great for a minute,” Zang described. “But when it implodes, it takes everything with it. It’s a black hole. That’s what’s going on with the banks.”

The tipping point and hyperinflation

The global economy reached a tipping point in 2008, but the effects are only now becoming apparent, Zang continued. Monetary velocity, or how quickly money changes hands, has spiked, indicating “the start of hyperinflation.” This pattern shift signifies that something has changed in the economy.”

Chuck again… Yes, I’ve said all those things already, but as usual, I think everyone will agree sometimes, someone else has to say it…. 

Market Prices 2/4/2025: American Style: A$ 6210, kiwi .5605, C$ .6941, euro 1.0352, sterling 1.2417, Swiss $1.1026, European Style: rand 18.7692, krone 11.3534, SEK 11.0569, forint 394.29, zloty 4.0707, koruna, 24.3325, RUB 99.81, yen 155.33, sing 1.3666, HKD 7.7882, INR 87.07, China 7.2446, peso 20.47, BRL 5.8172, BBDXY 1,307.65, Dollar Index 108.54, Oil $71.20, 10-year 4.59%, Silver $31,87, Platinum $971.00, Palladium $992.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold…. $2,835.25

That’s it for today… And this week, until next Tuesday… Last week I said I would be at home to watch the Super Bowl, but I was wrong… Our plane doesn’t leave St. louis until game time… I said to Dennis Miller yesterday, at least I don’t have to watch the Super Bowl halftime Show.. I’ll have to get all packed up today, since we leave tomorrow morning at 5 am… I’ll have to get out the long pants, long sleeved shirt and jacket to wear home, it won’t be that cold at home, but wet and rainy, which makes it feel colder…  I felt pretty darn good yesterday after waking up.. I even ate 2 meals, which I hadn’t done very often lately….  But I paid for it last night! Now I get to go and start it up all over again!  Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his great song: Brown Eyed Girl….  My former colleague, Jen would say when my iPod played that song… That’s my song! (Jen has brown eyes)  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler