Author: admin

• metals see short paper trading on Tuesday
• The dollar rallies overnight?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, this is the last Pfennig until 12/29, so read it carefully! HA! Today, my buddies will partake on our traditional “Shopping Day”, and tomorrow I report to the Hospital for my infusion…  Saturday, I’ll be in attendance for The Wizard of Oz play that my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, will take part in…  In the spring, she has the lead in a play… She’ll be the star I always thought she would be!  Back to Pandora’s Christmas station today, and Michelle McLaughlin greets me with her version of the song: O’ Come All Ye Faithful…  (one of my fave Christmas songs!) 

Well, I said yesterday that the Jobs Jamboree wouldn’t have good numbers in it, and it didn’t! The total jobs created in Nov, were just 64,000…  Remember the last Jobs report showed over 100,000 jobs lost, but there were 430,000 jobs added to the surveys by the BLS, so really the jobs report should have been over 500,000 down, and therefore yesterday’s print of 64,000 would seem like manna from heaven!   But, the markets don’t see it that way… And the dollar got sold on the report.

The dollar got sold immediately after the report and the BBDXY fell 2 index points right out of the starter’s blocks… But as the day went on, the dollar recovered its loss and ended the day flat… The BBDXY was 1,205 at the end of the day, and the currencies all remained at their previous day’s range. 

Gold, which I told you yesterday was already seeing some SPT action and down $11, came back strong after the reports that also included Retail Sales, which were flat, and the SPTs came back at Gold, and Gold ended the day down $2.  Silver tried like the dickens to get above their early morning loss, but the SPTS also came back to Silver and it ended the day down 33-cents… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $55 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield slipped a bit and ended the day with a 4.15% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, in Chinese trading, Silver soared! Silver is up $2.14 to start the day, and the SPTs are viewing that as a hill to steep to climb, I think… Gold is up $15 to start the day from the overnight trading.  The reason I say that about the SPTs is what I read on Ed Steer’s letter this morning… let’s listen in…”As I’ve been pointing out frequently is the precipitous decline in short positions held by the big 5 U.S. banks since their high-water mark back in July. In the last report, they were down to a piddling 6,797 short contracts between the five of them — and because of that, I doubted very much that any of them were in the Big 8 commercial short category anymore. I’ll be very surprised if they’re not completely out by now. But even if they’re not, I suspect that whatever they may be short in the futures market, they’ve covered themselves in the options or OTC markets.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to a $56 handle… No biggie… The rot on the Petrol Currencies from the price of Oil dropping has been quite noticeable…  The Russian ruble was trading around 77 and now it’s 80… Not a good thing for the Petrol Currencies… 

And the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.18%…

The selling in the dollar ended overnight, and smells of PPT intervention, as the BBDXY is up 3 index points to start the day… I went to the internet to find out what’s going on with the dollar, and all I got was something about the POTUS announcing a total blockade of Venezuelan Oil… So, that led me to say that the dollar rally smelled of PPT intervention… 

And in the “I can’t believe what I just read” category is this article from Reuters.com… This is unbelievable, and tells you how weird the world is…  Check this out…. 

“Music played in a wedding hall in western Japan as Yurina Noguchi, wearing a white gown and tiara, dabbed away her tears, taking in the words of her husband-to-be: an AI-generated persona gazing out from a smartphone screen.

At first, Klaus was just someone to talk with, but we gradually became closer,” the 32-year-old call Centre operator said, referring to the artificial intelligence persona.

“I started to have feelings for Klaus. We started dating and after a while he proposed to me. I accepted, and now we’re a couple.”

Ok, back to reality… And dont’ tell me “to each their own”, because this is too wacko to qualify!

The labor market in the U.S. is in shambles…  The BLS tried like heck to get the jobs created number to a good number, but they failed… The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6%, and the previous month’s 104,000 jobs lost was revised to 108,000… It’s a bad time to be without a job, like any time is a good time, but with the Christmas season upon us, no one wants to be at home with no future job…  I’m just saying… And I saw this on MSN… “From tech giants to coffee chains, America’s biggest employers are slashing their workforce by Thousands”…. 

I was let go once, back in 1998, when Mercantile Bank performed ethnic cleansing on all the former Mark Twain Bank employees, who initially came to Mercantile when they purchased Mark Twain Bank…  I had two kids in college that I was self funding, and a 3 year old at home… Thank goodness I had saved a ton of money through my years at Mark Twain… Hopefully, anyone let go at this time, has a “rainy day fund” like I had…

OK, back to the present…  I read to my darling daughter Dawn’s kindergarten class yesterday, The Night Before Christmas…  They were all listening intently to my words and then they all thanked me for reading to them… One little girl said, ” I didn’t like the story… I LOVED IT!”  She made me chuckle…

There’s still something rotten in Denmark folks… The repo market is getting used like a puppet, the Fed Heads announced QE, and the Casino Banks are all looking over their shoulders right now to see if the regulators are coming… I guess we’ll find out what it is when the fit hits the shan… 

And let’s not forget about the money supply… As of late 2025, the U.S. M2 money supply is around $22.3 trillion, hitting record highs, with recent monthly increases suggesting rapid growth similar to early pandemic levels. And we all know what the result of that rise in money supply was… Inflation…   Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Jobs Jamboree that we talked about above, yesterday, along with the 2 month old Retail Sales report, which I had told you that the BHI indicated that it wouldn’t be good, and it wasn’t… Retail Sales were flat as a pancake (Head East) and that didn’t help the dollar any…  

Today’s Retail Cupboard is empty, and only 3 Fed Heads speakers will be out and about spreading their lies… 

To recap…  the jobs report was not good, and the dollar initially got sold on the report, but rallied back to finish the day flat…  Gold started the day down $11 and then fought back to go positive on the day, only to see it lose that gain and finish the day down $2 and Silver finished the day down 33-cents…  The two have recovered their losses in the overnight markets last night…  Retail Sales for two month ago were flat, with no growth, And Chuck talks about all the job losses…

For What It’s Worth… I know I’ve been telling you for some time and including articles that say Gold is going to the moon… So, when I saw this article, that says otherwise, I had to include it here to give a “fair and balanced” report… So, this is about a technical guy that says the “end is near”…. And it can be found here: Gold and silver appear to be entering the final act in 2026; years-long bear market looms – Avi Gilburt | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “After one of the most powerful precious metals rallies in decades, gold and silver investors may be entering the most consequential phase of the cycle — one that could define returns well beyond 2026.

According to Avi Gilburt, veteran technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, the surge in gold and silver prices since the 2015–2016 lows is approaching its final innings. While prices could still climb further in the months ahead, Gilburt warns that investors should begin preparing for a multi-year correction that may begin as early as next year.

“This is not the start of something new,” Gilburt said. “This is likely the end of a very long cycle.”

Gilburt, who accurately called the 2011 gold top within dollars and the 2015 bottom almost to the day, believes the current rally has its roots in the post-2015 reset that followed years of ETF liquidation and declining investor interest. That cycle, now nearly a decade old, appears to be approaching exhaustion.

“I believe we are heading into the end of the cycle,” he said. “2026 probably will provide us with the end of this long-term cycle in gold and silver, and potentially kick off another multi-year bear market.”

While the outlook may sound jarring for investors who view precious metals as a long-term hedge, Gilburt explained that metals move in distinct waves that are largely independent of popular macro narratives.”

Chuck again…  Well, there you have it… I know, I know, all the fundamentals point to higher levels for Gold & Silver, the technicals don’t…  and so I caution you to be careful out there… 

Market Prices 12/17/2025: American Style: A$.6620, kiwi .5777, C$ .7252, euro 1.1715. Sterling 1.3359, Swiss $1.2561, European Style: rand 16.7449, krone 10.2180, SEK 9.3305, forint 330.58, zloty 3.3952, koruna 20.7875, RUB 80.32, yen 155.59, sing 1.2918, HKD 7.7804, INR 90.37, China 7.0442, peso 17.98, BRL 5.5003. BBDXY 1208, Dollar Index 98.54, Oil $56.23, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $65.39, Platinum $1,921.00, Palladium $1.658.00, Copper $5.41, and Gold… $4,318

That’s it for today… Today is my former assistant and colleague’s birthday… Jen Mclean… Happy Birthday Jen!  (Bet you thought I forgot!)  Friday is my good friend Ty Keough’s birthday… Happy early Birthday Ty!  While I’m on my Christmas Vacation, my beautiful bride, Kathy, will celebrate her birthday the day after Christmas…  She always said that she got short-changed on her birthday… I’ve always separated the two!  So, watch you email box around the 24^th for the annual Christmas Pfennig… The Lori Mecha Quartet takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Christmas Time Is Here…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the metals see short selling on Monday
• QE is back, and soon will be expanded…

Good Day… And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another day of cold, but not as cold, but to me anything below 60 degrees is cold and I don’t like it one iota! It’s supposed to get warmer for the next few days, so I’ll stop complaining… Gold’s start to the week was interrupted by the SPTs… The dollar trading was a non event yesterday, and more follows in today’s Pfennig…  The Pousette-Dart Band greets me this morning with their one hit wonder song: Amnesia… 

Well, the dollar traded in a very tight range yesterday, and after losing 1 index point to 1,205 overnight, it remained there till the end of the day… I told you yesterday, that the dollar had returned to the weak underlying trend, and yesterday’s trading just strengthened that thought, as there was no recovery in the dollar, as Traders try to figure out the new parameters of QE, that was announced last week by Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell… 

I gave the reasons that the Fed Heads could have used as the reaso they turned back to QE, yesterday, so I won’t go trough them again… Just know that there’s a reason that the Fed Heads know, and aren’t telling us…  There’s still something rotten in Denmark, folks… 

The SPTs went after Gold yesterday, and the shiny metal saw most of its early morning gain of $47 go down the drain… The SPTs sold short paper Gold and apparently there wasn’t enough physical demand to offset the shorts… Gold ended the day up $7 at $4,305…  Silver had another banner day.. I read a report yesterday on the GATA sight, that talked about how China had taken over the trading of Silver (and Gold) and soon the SPTs will realize that every time they take a pound of flesh from Silver, The Chinese see this as a buying opportunity and soon, the loss that Silver suffered has been recovered…   I like that ! 

Silver ended the day up $2.14 to $64.13… The Chinese made certain that the SPTs saw their work…   All the fundamentals for Silver remain intact, nothing has changed, and therefore the next stop is $71….  

The price of Oil is really throwing a spanner in the works, by not rallying on the news that Oil tankers are being seized, and the free shipment of Oil no longer exists, there are troubles all over…  We’ve got Ukraine attacking Russian Oil sectors, and Russia announcing that they will attack Ukraine ships… We’ve got the U.S. announcing that the taking of a Venezuelan Oil tanker last week was just the beginning…  And we’ve got Ships taking their chances going through the Strait of Hormuz…    If one of these areas blows up it could really be a dagger to the heart of Oil shipments… I’m just saying…

The 10-year ended the day trading with a 4.17% yield, up one basis point on the day… Right now, only T-Bills are getting bought by the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel, but it won’t take too long for the boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. To extend the maturities and buy the whole yield curve… At least, that’s how I see it playing out… 

In the overnight Markets last night… the dollar slid a bit more in the BBDXY and its down 1 index point overnight. The BBDXY sits at 1,204 to start our day.  The currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, all have moved a bit higher VS the dollar… The SPTs are already out and about pushing Gold & Silver down this morning… Gold is down $11, and Silver is down 99-cents to start our Tuesday… 

This is the first time we’ve seen the SPTs take their pound of flesh on one day, and then not be followed up by the Chinese buying to offset the SPTs, in a couple of weeks, so I’m not happy about that… 

The price of Oil slid further overnight and starts our day trading with a $55 handle…  Go get that gas guzzler folks…   The 10-year Treasury bond is sitting at 4.17% this morning… Where it goes from here only The Shadow Knows… But my thought is that the bond boys will test the Fed’s mettle, and see what happens when they throw 4.20% up on the wall and see if it sticks.. 

I couldn’t believe it yesterday when rereading the Pfennig that I ended the letter without talking about the Chinese renminbi…  The renminbi was allowed to gain VS the dollar to trade with a 7.04 handle…    The renminbi hasn’t been this strong VS the dollar since July 2023… So, it’s been a month of Sundays since we’ve seen the renminbi this strong VS the dollar…  Oh, and China announced that they had booked a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus!  You see, China just went about finding new countries to trade with, once the outrageous tariffs were place on their goods coming to the U.S….  I don’t think that was the plan when the tariffs were announced.. But I hate to think that someone didn’t think that this could happen… I’m just saying…

In the U.K. They printed a Rocktober GDP that saw their economic growth shrink, and immediately the calls for a rate cut this week from the Bank of England… Inflation is still above their target rate, but as we’ve seen here in the U.S. that won’t stop a Central Bank from debasing their currency… 

The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Wednesday… I don’t expect them to cut rates at this meeting, so the euro’s rise above the 1.17 handle isn’t in peril right now.. 

I received this from the good folks at GATA this morning… “CMOC Group, one of China’s biggest miners, extended its push into precious metals with a $1 billion deal to buy the Brazilian operations of Equinox Gold Corp.

It will take full ownership of two Equinox entities — Leagold LatAm Holdings BV and Luna Gold Corp. — that control several mines or deposits in the South American nation. Equinox will receive $900 million in cash, plus a contingent payment of as much $115 million one year after the deal closes, CMOC said in an exchange filing.”

Chuck again…  Well, (in my best church lady voice) Isn’t that special! Brazil isn’t that far from the U.S. how far north will the Chinese go?  I saw a cartoon that made me laugh yesterday…  The Chinese are one side of the fence and the U.S. is on other side and there are guys on each side with the Chinese throwing bundles of currency over the fence at the U.S. and the U.S. are throwing Gold Bars over the fence at th Chinese…  And the caption says: “Who’s Winning?”   

I think we all know who the winner is here… Gold holdings in China are much greater than they admit to owning… This has been going on for decades now, and in my estimation, taking in the receipts in Hong Kong, their internal mining and purchases that they have made through the years, I thik China has at least 10,000 tons of Gold, which would make them the leader in the clubhouse for he who owns the most Gold…  And when the financial system falters and everyone gets together to sort out the new system backed by Gold, he who has the most Gold will make the rules…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, has the Jobs Jamboree for Nov… back to up to date…  I think that knowing that the Jobs data was due today, kept the dollar traders from buying dollars yesterday… This could show real rot on labor’s vine, and then it could show that labor isn’t a problem after all…  Of course, this I a Gov’t issued report, so all the hedonic adjustments will be applied to the surveys before printing the report.  We’ll also see Retail Sales for Rocktober…  Real Stale numbers, eh? But as I said yesterday, I don’t think the BHI indicated any goodness for this report…  But the markets seem to think otherwise… 

The STUPID CPI will print on Thursday, as I’m getting an IV in me for my infusion, the STUPID CPI will show that inflation is still sticky and probably rising.. 

Also in Data… I saw this on Reuters.com this morning… “Ford Motor said it will take a $19.5 billion write-down and is killing several electric-vehicle models.”  Uh-Oh… 

To recap.. The dollar trading was a non-event yesterday, but the SPTs went after Gold on the day… Silver had a banner day, gaining $2.14, after seeing tons of short trades on Friday…   The jobs Jamboree for Rocktober prints this morning along with Retail Sales… Chuck mentions the Chinese renminbi this morning, and The BOE will probably cut rates on Wednesday when they meet. 

For What It’s Worth…  We’re getting closer to the end of the year and with the year end, comes forecasts for 2026… This article resembles that, as a French Bank tells its clients to remain long Gold… and it can be found here: Gold’s rally to $5,000 in 2026 will outperform U.S. dollar and bonds – Société Générale | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the greenback through 2026, which is why one major bank is maintaining its maximum allocation and recommends that investors buy the precious metal on dips.

Ahead of the new year, market analysts at Société Générale said they are maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in their multi-asset portfolio. The French bank is holding its gold allocation steady as it reduces its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and cuts its corporate bond holdings by half, to 5%.

“In a year when fixed income has struggled and USD weakness has weighed on the common-currency return of USD assets, SGMAP has performed well with balanced allocation. Our theme of broadening in asset price performance is reflected in the performance of various equity markets and other assets like gold,” the analysts said in their latest report. “Going forward, we expect this broadening theme to persist amid falling interest rates in the US.”

The analysts reiterated their call for gold prices to hit $5,000 an ounce by the end of next year.”

Chuck again… Well, you now know where Societe Generale stands with Gold… Most importantly is that they talk about diversified investment portfolios… Something that I’ve stressed for decades now…   

Market Prices 12/16/2025: American Style: A$.6532, kiwi .5780, C$ .7264, euro 1.1764, sterling 1.3428, Swiss $1.2586, European Style: rand 16.7778, krone 10.1880, SEK 9.3013, forint 326.73, zloty 3.5870, koruna 20.6678, RUB 79.39, yen 154.17, sing 1.2893, HKD 7.7792, INR 91.03, China 7.0423, peso 17.95, BRL 5.9370, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.12, Oil $55.37, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $63.15, Platinum $1,827.00, Palladium $1,590.00, Copper $5.32, and Gold… $4,294

That’s it for today…  Our Blues lost again last night… UGH! They seem to be unable to put a string of good games together… Lots of injuries right now for the team… Well, the tension begins to build for college football fans… The first playoff game will be played Friday night, with the winner of the game to play Indiana… Congrats to Fernando Mendoza the winner of the Heisman, this year for College football’s best player… The young man that finished 2^nd didn’t display good sportsmanship for sure!  Too bad.. He ruined his image, and hurt the University he represented…  Oh, well, I read to my darling daughter Dawin’s kindergarten class today… I need to make sure my voice is ready!  The Electric Light Orchestra takes us to the finish line today with their first hit song: Hold On Tight… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and PLEASE Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The metals see the SPTs on Friday
• Back to QE…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, December is slipping away very quickly as far as I’m concerned… It’s already ½ over!  I have an announcement in the wrap up this morning, so don’t miss it! It got really cold over the weekend here… But warmer weather is on the way…  Our Blues beat the Blackhawks on Friday night… This used to be a BIG Rivalry… I was really spacing out last week, as I said that the college Playoffs started last Friday… I was rushing it a bit, eh? The playoffs start this Friday! DOH! Dire Straits greets me this morning with their song: Brothers In Arms… 

Well, the dollar sat on its duff on Friday and didn’t move… It traded in a very tight range and remained at the 1,206 figure in the BBDXY to end the week… The dollar lost 8 index points for the week, last.  So, a return to the underlying weak trend was its destination and it is entrenched now… The euro was trading above the 1.17 figure to end the week, and the rest of the currencies are looking heathier…

 Debase your currency and see that holders of the currency don’t like it…  I just don’t get the rate cuts… They do nothing to help the labor problem, and there was no  reason to cut them 3 times on top of that! Inflation is still a problem, and with money supply growing like a weed, inflation is only going to get worse…  but, then that’s just me talking… 

The metals saw major SPT action on Friday…  Even with the selling by the short paper traders Gold ended the week near $4,300 and Silver was up 6.2%…  Silver saw the brunt of the short selling and it lost $1.63 on the day to end the week at $61.99… Just the previous day, sllver traded as high as $64…   Gold was $4,351 when the SPTs showed up with arms full of short paper trades…   I say that this was the SPTs late attempt to swing for the fences one more time…  The physical demand for these metals is too strong right now, and that really hurts the SPTs… 

The price of Oil had slipped to a $57 handle on Thursday and remained there to end the week… And the 10-year Treasury saw some give and take from its yield all last week, but ended the week trading with a $4.18% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Before I went to bed last night, I checked to see what the metals were doing after Friday’s takedown by the SPTs…  And Gold was already up $27 and Silver 65-cents…  the dollar had added an index point to trade last night at 1,207… 

So, those early gains in the metals were early signs of a good rally, as Gold is up $47 to start our day/ week, and Silver didn’t waste any time waiting to regain its momentum as it is up $1.93 to start our day/ week.  

The dollar returned to getting sold and starts our day/ week with the BBDXY at 1.205, down 1 index point from Friday’s close. The dollar’s brief run higher didn’t last too long, as it returned the underlying weak trend in no time…  Why did the dollar run up higher? It had to be intervention, otherwise the rally would have lasted longer…  I’m just saying…

Silver is outperforming Gold once again, and that is something that has occurred many times in the past… During the metals run up in the 2000’s Silver outperformed Gold in 10 of the 11 years, so we’re back to normal in the metals… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $57 handle overnight…  I’m still surprised that the price of Oil has remained so low… There’s a lot going on with saber rattling over Oil and I can’t believe it’s not reacting accordingly… But, sera sera…  

The 10-year Treasury’s yield saw some slippage overnight, and so the yield on the bond starts our day/ week at 4.16%… 

Well, I have to get this off my chest… I think something’s rotten in Denmark… Something smells of yesterday’s fish… And any of the other sayings that say, “Something’s going on, and we’re about to find out what”…

I’m talking about the other comment that Jerome Powell made after announcing the rate cut last week… He told the NY Fed to begin purchasing T-Bills and bonds up to 3 years…   

I’ve mentioned in previous Pfennigs that the Fed Heads had been manipulating the yield on the 10-year Treasury to keep it from going too high, but this is different… This is Quantitative Easing / QE… monetizing the debt… and other things that come to mind… Like dirty dastardly low-ball tricks to hide something… 

Could it be… that the Fed Heads are worried that Central Banks around the world are stepping away from Treasuries for Gold, and it will soon affect the auctions?  Or it could be that by buying Treasuries, the Fed Heads are simply doing the buying that no one else is doing to drive the price of the bonds higher and the yields lower?  The bond boys won’t lower the yields, so, the Fed Heads had to take it on themselves…  

Either way, I don’t like it… It’s QE no matter what stick you shake at it..  And I thought there was an agreement that there would be no more QE?  I guess that was just a suggestion, and not an order… 

So, he had 3 dissenting voters in the FOMC to a 25 Basis Point rate cut, the most dissenters that I believe I’ve ever heard of, and went ahead and cut rates… then he announces QE…  Something strange is going on and we’ll find out sooner or later what that is, but that “unknown” is what I think lit the fuse under Gold & Silver last Thursday… Something BAD is about to be discovered as going on, and then Katy Bar The door! Because Gold & Silver are heading to Infinity and Beyond! In my best Buzz Lightyear voice… 

If Thursday’s price action in Gold & Silver is any indication of what’s in store for these two, then we had better tighten our bootstraps… I’m just saying! 

I’ve told you before about be acquainted with Brien Lundin of the New Orleans Investment Conference, and author of the newsletter:  The Gold Newsletter…  Well, he had this to say about what I’m talking about here: “Gold, as I mentioned, has been coiling in what looks like an impending break out. Still, I agree that something is definitely up in the silver (and gold) markets. While there are severe

supply constraints, particularly loco London after the tariff scare of earlier this year, there are other, deeper-seated issues remaining after years of manipulation in these markets. ” Brien Lundin… 

Chuck again…  And then there I was, being just happy as a lark, when I read Ed Steer’s letter on Saturday… In it, he included an article that talked about The European Union’s decision to take the frozen assets that they took from Russia, and “unfreeze them” by putting them in a package of loans to Ukraine…  This has all the makings of what David Rogers was telling us in this great book: The Great Taking… 

I recommended this book when it came out, because it painted a picture of how the powers that be will take everything from us…  there will be a summit in Brussels this week to discuss this…  I can’t believe this has come to this…  This plan for 185 Billion euros, or $217 Billion dollars worth of euros will be voted on…  this is crazy folks! This opens Pandora’s Box of evil things that will be bestowed upon us!  Ed Steer had his thoughts on this let’s listen in: “Because of that, I’m wondering if yesterday’s bear raid in the precious metals was one last swing for the fences before everything comes unglued in Europe.

As Gandalf the White said…”Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.”

All we can do is watch, wait — and hope that we’re not collateral damage if things really do go totally nonlinear over there…because any problems that develop over there, will spread like wildfire across globe in very short order.”

Chuck again.. Full of seashells and balloons this morning, (NOT!) Why can’t we just all get along? Questions for someone with far greater gray matter than I! 

I could have put that last piece in the FWIW section today, but it was important and I wanted people to read it, and I fear that the FWIW articles get skimmed over all the time by most readers, so there’s that… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty today, but tomorrow’s Cupboard has the Jobs Jamboree from November, which I fear is going to show real rot on labor’s vine,,,  and prove my call that the rate cuts won’t help the labor picture.. But the Fed Heads continue to cut rates anyway…   We’ll also see the Rocktober Retail Sales which the BHI indicates to me was rotten…  If I remember correctly, that is.. 

And I found this on Twitter: “The average U.S. credit card balance has climbed to about 6.5k per person, with total balances pushing well past 1.2 trillion dollars and setting new records. High-cost revolving debt is no longer just a temporary bridge; for millions it has quietly become a way of life.”

Chuck again… and to think that most of these credit cards charge 20% interest… So, how will those balances ever be paid off? Win the lottery?

To recap… The SPT’s really made Silver’s Friday a tough row to hoe…  Gold also saw some short selling knocking it back $53 from its high for the day… Silver lost $1.63 on the day, but to me this is fine, let them have one more swing for the fences, because the demand is so strong for physical Silver that it should recover the loss on Friday and then some, quickly…  The dollar didn’t move on iota on Friday, and remained trading at 1,206 in the BBDXY… 

For What It’s Worth… This article on Kitco.com caught my eye because.. Its title was: Gold and Silver may be overbought bought (technically) but stilll under-owned….  And that article can be found here: Gold and silver may be overbought in 2026, but still underowned | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “So far this year, gold has hit nearly 50 all-time highs as it trades around $4,300 ahead of the weekend. The yellow metal is up more than 65% so far this year and is seeing its best annual gains since 1979.

Of course, gold’s gains pale in comparison to silver. Although the grey metal is off its highs above $64.66 an ounce, it is up more than 6% this week and trading at record highs: silver prices are up 115%!

Given the gains the precious metals have made this year, it’s not surprising that some analysts are trying to talk down the momentum. The Bank for International Settlements attracted a lot of attention this week after publishing a report stating that both gold and equities are in bubble territory.

That may be true, but according to one analyst, even if the gold market is a bubble, it doesn’t mean it will pop next year. A new theme growing in the precious metals sector is that both gold and silver may be overpriced but under-owned.

It’s hard to see the scenario that would pop the precious metals bubble. Are interest rates going to go higher next year? Will globalization trends reemerge? Will government spending be reined in?”

Chuck again… the answer to those questions is a resounding NO!  And so I hang my hat on the thought that when U.S. investors flock to Gold & Silver then we may be near the end of the run, but until then…  Carry on my wayward son… (Kansas)

Market Prices 12/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6552, kiwi .5792, C$ .7265, euro 1.1753, sterling 1.3390, Swiss $1.2567, European Style: rand 16.7839, krone 10.1371. SEK 9.2848, forint 327.74, zloty 3.5914, koruna 20.6668, RUB 79.15, yen 155.00, sing 1.2819, HKD 7.7822, INR 90.73, China 7.0470, peso 17.98, BRL 5.4050, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $57.13, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $63.92, Platinum $ 1,775.00, Palladium $ 1.549.00, Copper $5.42, and Gold… $4,346

That’s it for today… Now pay attention, because this is important… It’s that time of year again when Chuck takes his annual Christmas Vacation… It all begins on Thursday this week as I will be getting my monthly infusion, and what better day to start a vacation?  I will return on 12/29/25… So, mark your calendars accordingly..  Today is my younger sister’s birthday… Happy Birthday Terri!  Terri lives in Houston, TX with my other younger sister, Joanie…Terri came to see me last April, it was one of the few times we get together…  Look for my usual traditional Christmas Pfennig around 12/24…  War greets me this morning with their song: Low Rider… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• Zerohedge.com thinks Powell was “dovish”…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all…  I had said too much in yesterday’s Pfennig to mention that our Blues two-game winning streak came to a halt Tuesday night with a 5-2 loss to the Bruins… UGH! I hadn’t slept too well Tuesday night, having awakened at 1 am and not being able to fall back asleep… It was not fun… So, I tried like the dickens to keep awake yesterday during the day and not take a siesta… It seemed to have worked, as I received a very restful night of sleep last night…  Tom Braxton greets me this morning with his version of the song: Let It Snow… 

Well, the FOMC did indeed cut their Fed Funds rate 25 Basis Points (1/4%) to an overnight rate of 3.5%… The FOMC did tell the markets that they were only planning on one more rate cut for 2026… They have 8 meeting in 2026, so pick one and be done… The dollar got sold on the news, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points and closed the day at 1,209… Gold, which had spent the early morning gaining ground, but then saw the SPTs come in and wipe out the gain, only to see Gold rally again and end the day up $19 at $4,228… 

Silver outperformed Gold once again and didn’t mess with any of the foolishness from the SPTs and gained $1.06 to end the day at $61.78…  I’m surprised that Gold & Silver rallied as strongly as they did after the rate cut announcement and their words about 2026… To me, the FOMC didn’t really give us any real guidance, nor did they say that they were data dependent, so in essence, they will willy nilly cut rates when they feel like it…  That’s how I feel they left the markets yesterday, and that’s the real reason for the selling of the dollar…  An Unknown… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to a $ 59 handle, and the 10-year got bought for the first time in a week, as the yield dropped to 4.15%… There was an article about how our friends (NOT!) at OPEC and Russia are cutting production and alleviating the glut of supply that currently exists in Oil…  And the Oil futures are responding accordingly, which means the price of Oil should be going higher soon… 

Silver’s first foray above $60 has brought with it new onlookers, and that brings out the pundits to tell why they think Silver is going so strong right now… One of those that had never even given Silver a thought before, The Washington Post, said, “A mix of forces are boosting silver, including the weakened dollar, tariff politics and supply shortages.”  I find it to be funny, not funny ha-ha, but funny. That these folks that never had even heard of the Silver Shortage, but now seem to be authority on it, and come out of the woodwork, like cockroaches! 

I’ve been telling you about the shortage in physical Silver for some time now, and it has played along with the rise in Silver… Supply and Demand… For once, fundamentals come into play… Not that STUPID Sentiment that rules the other asset classes…  Oh well, I guess we’ll have to put up with the Johnny-come-latelys as we go along here…  I have a technical guru that we used to write for the Soveign Society and get together whenever possible… And I wonder if he thinks that Silver’s next stop is $71, I’ve mentioned Sean Hyman in past Pfennigs… If the charts interest you, you should check out Sean’s work, he a master! I sent him a note, and awaiting the response… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar didn’t move off the 1,209 figure in the BBDXY, but the euro rose above the 1.17 handle, so the currencies are perking up again as the dollar continues to get debased… Gold and Silver, after reaching another new high yesterday, have seen some profit taking from the short timers this morning. Gold is down $17, and Silver is up 30-cents… The moves yesterday after the rate announcement were good enough for the week, as far as I am concerned. 

Copper saw no SPTs yesterday, and therefore it rose in price to $5.42…  Leave it to its own devices and it rises… Interfere with it and who know what you get…  I’m just saying…

I guess all that talk in Oil was thrown to the wayside, and the price of Oil dropped to a $57 handle overnight…  And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield drop to 4.12%… Which makes sense given the debasement of the dollar yesterday. 

And the froth that was on the Petrol Currencies on Monday, has disappeared and they are back to trying to eke out a gain VS the dollar. 

The Chinese renminbi was allowed to gain VS the dollar overnigh and starts our day trading with a 7.05 handle… 

Here’s Zerohedge.com’s take on the FOMC yesterday: “Consensus was expecting a hawkish rate cut, and while it got the cut, the hawkish elements – more dissenters, higher dots, a push-back by Powell during the presser – did not materialize, and instead we have a low-grade revolt by the non-voters at the Fed (6 dots for unchanged today, only 2 dissents, more 3 dots expecting a rate hike in 2026), yet that will be promptly snuffed by whoever Trump picks to replace Powell next May.

In fact, one can say that today’s meeting was much more dovish than expected when accounting for the $40BN in T-Bill purchases coming in two days (just as we said would happen) which was a very contrarian call. And not only was this announced by a New York Fed implementation, but Powell decided to put that right in the statement, something that has not happened since the liquidity crunch after covid in early 2020.”

Chuck again… so, they think that the FOMC was “dovish”, and so much for the thought that the FOMC would be “hawkish”…  I truly believe the FOMC and Jerome Powell was “meh”…  But he was good for Gold & Silver, so he gets credit for that!

You know what I’ve been thinking about with this shortage in physical Silver and the strong demand?  Bank of America (BOA) they are short about 1 Billion ounces of Silver… What would happen if they got hung out to dry? It would be a Bear Stearns situation all over again, but this time there would be no one to rescue them, like JPMorgan did for Bear Stearns…  This would be the biggest blow up of a Casino Bank that’s considered Too Big To Fail…. I’m really concerned that this could go down that road the way Silver is getting bought by the boat loads these days… 

You could wake up one morning and call your metals dealer and say, “I want to buy some Silver… .and he responds, “Sorry, there’s no bid for Silver right now, unless you want to pay hundreds of dollars for an ounce”… You fall out bed, and begin scratching your head, and remember that Chuck Butler once gave you a scenario where this happened… “how’d he know?”….   

The U.S. Data Cupboard is beginning to get back on board the economic calendar train, today we’ll see the Trade Deficit for Sept (Still stale though) and the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… 

I did find some labor data on Reuters.com: “The U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, but persistently strong wage growth pointed to still-tight labor market conditions that most certainly ensure the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates later this month.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed 110,000 fewer jobs were created in April and May, indicating that higher borrowing costs were starting to dampen businesses’ appetite to continue boosting headcount. There was also a jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons last month, in part because their hours had been reduced due to slack work or business conditions.”

Next week we’ll see the Jobs Jambore on Tuesday! This will be for November, so at least it will be somewhat newer than that data they keep giving us from September.  Tuesday will be a BIG DAY For Data next week, so we’ll have to strap on our boots!

For What It’s Worth… I found this on Ed Steer’s letter and IT IS A BIG DEAL!  this is an article about JPMorgan who took over Bear Stearns short Silver position back in the day, is now long Silver! And it can be found here: JPMorgan silver hoard signals historic surge: Is JPMorgan hoarding silver? Here’s what it means as reports claim the bank has been stockpiling the precious metal – The Economic Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “JP Morgan is going long on silver and making history. The bank now holds over 750 million ounces of physical silver, the largest stockpile in the world. In just six weeks, it added 21 million ounces. That’s a staggering move in a market already under pressure.

Between June and October, JP Morgan reportedly sold off its entire 200-million-ounce paper short position. This freed cash to acquire physical silver, leaving the bank long in both physical and paper silver for the first time ever. Experts say this is a rare and powerful market position.

The move coincided with the U.S. Mint announcing a shortage of silver coins. Physical supply is tightening while demand  ..

If history is any guide, silver could move sharply upward. Adjusted for inflation, silver’s 1980 peak would be over $600 per ounce today. Nobody can predict exact prices, but the structural setup favors a major squeeze. Industrial demand is rising, mine supply is falling, and institutional accumulation is accelerating.

The paper silver market is massive, estimated at 50 times the size of physical supply. COMEX open interest is about 244% of registered silver. Lease rates have climbed to nearly 30%, which is a sign that physical Silver is in high demand”

Chuck again… This is HUGE folks! It was one thing when JPM came out and told their clients to diversify 20% to Gold & Silver…  And now they have gotten rid of their short positions, and gone long!    There’s still the large short position at BOA but … the short positioners are falling by the roadside…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/11/2025: American Style: A$.6661, kiwi .5820, C$ .7250, euro 1.1721, sterling 1.3394, Swiss $1.2556, European Style: rand 16.9320, krone 10.0880, SEK 9.2595, forint 327.34, zloty 3.6059, koruna 20.7034, RUB 79.34, yen 155.52, sing 1.2929, HKD 7.7816, INR 90.36, China 7.0581, peso 18.16, BRL 5.4337, BBDXY 1,209, Dollar Index 99.14, Oil $57.80, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $62.18, Platinum $1,673.00, Palladium $1,488.00, Copper $5.42, and Gold… $4,211

That’s it for today and this week… Next week is a busy week for yours truly… culminating on Thursday with my monthly infusion… Last month, I had a tough row to hoe with the infusion, so fingers crossed that I tolerate it better this month! The College Football Playoffs begin tomorrow night, with one game, and then 3 on Saturday… I hope it does snow this weekend, because I’ll be glued to the TV watching Playoff Football! We are supposed to see temps plunge again so there’s that… I switched back to my iPod this morning, and Stories take us to the finish line today with their song: Brother Louie… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself, and your neighbor! 

Chuck Butler

*Silver takes for infinity and beyond!

• the markets look to see what the FOMC has to say…

Good  Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  A wonderful night of getting together with some of my former colleagues Monday night… I always get a kick out of seeing that Wily Old Veteran, and of course Frank Trotter! Who’s the Wiley Old Veteran I hear you asking?  My old softball teammate, Jack Milner!  I came home Monday night, and realized I hadn’t eaten anything… I scoured the pantry, and came up with zilch, so I just went ahead and went to bed…  note for next year… eat before you go! Marcus Anderson greets me this morning with his version of the song: A Few Of My Favorite Things… 

So… The dollar, which when I signed off on Monday was getting sold, turned its red figure around on Monday and ended up gaining 1 index point to 1,214… Tuesday brought about drifting along in the dollar… The dollar continued to trade all day, at 1,214 in the BBDXY… The euro remains in the 1.16 handle, as it awaits further movement in the dollar. The real Big Kahuna mover yesterday was Silver… Silver gained $2.42 and closed the day above $60! It wasn’t that long ago that some naysayers were calling for a Top in Silver… They are nowhere to be seen or heard now…  

Gold also gained but Silver outperformed Gold once again… Gold gained $18 to close at $4,209..  It was at this level on Monday morning, before the SPTS took their pound of flesh from Gold… So, one step back and one step forward for Gold, so in my mind this has to end at sometime, and then Gold can move upward once again without having to repeat previous day’s levels…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil seems to be range trading these days, between $58 and $60… Every time it bumps higher to $60 it gets slammed back down… So, $60 is the line in the sand for Oil right now, I still believe that Oil should be priced higher, but then that’s just me… 

The 10-year Treasury bond is really adding to its yield these days, as it ended yesterday trading with a 4.19% yield… I’ve gone over what I think the bond boys are doing here, so I won’t repeat myself… At least this time! HA!

In the overnight markets last night…  the 10-year’s yield bumped up another basis point to 4.20% yield… The Dollar saw a bit of selling overnight, and the BBDXY lost 1 index point to 1,213… I don’t think we’ll see much movement in the dollar until the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel speaks today… The price of Gold is seeing some SPT action to prep for the rate cut… I aways say that the SPTS sell Gold ahead of the rate cut announcement so that it has to start from a lower basis…   But Silver is back on the buyers’ shopping list this morning and is up 51-cents! 

Silver really took the ball and ran with it yesterday, right around the end and down the sideline to the HOUSE! It didn’t take Silver that long to go from $50 to $60, and from here on out, I don’t think the timeline will be stretched in any imagination regarding how long takes Silver to go to $70, and infinity and beyond! 

Yahoo Finance is reporting that there could be 5 dissident rate cut voters at the FOMC meeting today… My Golly, that seems to be a lot! And makes me question why, if that is the case, would the FOMC go ahead and cut rates? 5 naysayers to all that favor a rate cut say “AYE”…   That seems like too many for me, but then I think with logic and not utopian thoughts like the Fed Heads… 

If they do go ahead and cut rates this afternoon, I suspect the Fed Heads will temper the enthusiasm of a rate cut by talking about the need for further rate cuts will be data driven… That should keep the dollar from falling a lot… And that is important to the Fed Heads… But it will be yet another debasing of the dollar, and with the money supply continuing to grow, a rise in inflation it right around the corner folks… Are you ready?

The Chinese renminbi has really been allowed to move higher VS the dollar in recent times… I don’t know what the Chinese’s end game with the renminbi is here, but allowing it to move stronger VS the dollar is a shift in their position…  I’m just saying… 

The SPTs are still taking measure of Copper… After reaching $5.47 on Monday, Copper dropped to $5.33 Monday and Tuesday… The fundamentals are still the same, the shortage of Copper is very real and playing into the price, but the SPTs have found a new whipping boy… UGH!  

One of the things that caught my attention on Monday was an article on Kitco.com that talked about how Gold & Silver were getting sold because of the thought that the FOMC would be hawkish with their statement, even after cutting rates…  Oh, so the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel are going to say, “This is the last rate cut for this cycle”?  I doubt that very much… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see tomorrow afternoon, when all the board games are put away, and the FOMC announces their decision along with any further comment they may want to opine about… 

And once again, I want to point out that Kitco.com won’t talk about price manipulation in the metals, so they have to come ups with some reason why the metals are down…   

And then Monday night when I arrived home and turned on my laptop, I saw this Headline: Di Martino Booth says the Fed is Trapped….   Ok, so longtime readers know that I used to quote Danielle Di Martino Booth in the Pfennig. She’s a former assistant to the Fed Gov in Dallas and had the inner workings of the Fed at her fingertips…  So…  I just had to check out what she was saying…  Here’s a snippet: “the Federal Reserve is in a “trap” or “impossible dilemma”, primarily because its policies have created systemic vulnerabilities that limit its ability to respond effectively to new crises without causing a market crash. 

In essence, she views the Fed as being caught between its mandate to control inflation and the need to maintain financial stability, a position she believes has left the institution “trapped” with no good options. You can find more of her analysis through her company’s website, Quill Intelligence, or her Substack newsletter. “

Chuck again… What’s the way out of this trap? There is no way out… Unfortunately… this is the dilemma that we as investors are going to have to face…  Of course, there’s a different viewpoint and it comes from Enrique Abeta from Paradigm Press, says that on Dec 10th at 2 pm, the stock market will start new “melt up”…  So, figure out which one you want to follow…  

That day and time tunes into the day and time the FOMC will make their rate announcement…  So, the rate announcement is a BIG Cookie here…  

I’m not going to go further, because I’m no stock jockey, and I don’t want to get in trouble talking about stocks…  But to me, cutting rates while inflation is still higher than your target rate of 2%, is like playing chicken…   Somebody is going to lose… and to me, it’s the consumers, investors, and mom and pops…  And that, I would be willing to bet a shiny quarter on…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty this week, with the FOMC meeting the Big Cookie to view… There will be a report on the 3^rd QTR Employment Cost Index today, ahead of the FOMC announcement… So, there’s that…  But it’s all about the FOMC meeting announcement this afternoon, so get set, get ready, and go!

To recap… The dollar traders are really sitting on their collective hands these days, not giving the dollar any true direction, and so the BBDXY remains around 1,214… The euro remains above the 1.16 level, and all the other currencies are falling in line behind the Big Dog euro. Silver really kicked some tail and took names later yesterday, gaining over $2 on the day and ending the day above $60. 

For What It’s Worth… I went to the well again for his article from my friend, Dave Gonigam and his 5 Bullets that a reader gets sent when they subscribe to one of the Paradigm Press newsletters… So, you’ll have to take the snippet as your article this morning, and since I spent some time on the FOMC meeting, this is about the FOMC Meeting too… 

Or, here’s your snippet: “Wall Street has slipped into neutral — as it often does ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee convened this morning for one of its every-six-weeks meetings to set policy.

There’s no drama about the decision: Tomorrow afternoon the Fed will lower the benchmark fed funds rate another quarter percentage point to 3.75%. That’s down from a peak of 5.5% less than 18 months ago.

But there will be big drama going into that decision: “This meeting promises to be one of the most divisive at the board level since the 1980s,” says Paradigm macro maven Jim Rickards.

“There are only two ways to vote on an interest rate decision — yes or no. But there are three distinct views among the board members.

“A group of doves led by Stephan Miran, recently appointed by President Trump, not only want to cut rates but are pushing for a larger rate cut of 0.50%. Board members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller lean in that direction.

“A group of hawks led by Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid and a large group (described as ‘many’ in recent FOMC minutes) favor no rate cut. A centrist group led by Chair Jay Powell and other governors including Phil Jefferson, Michael Barr and Lisa Cook support the 0.25% rate cut, although some may lean in a hawkish direction.

“The result may be an 8-4 vote in favor of the 0.25% rate cut where the four dissenters are of two different minds — some supporting a larger cut and some supporting no cut at all.

“The takeaway will not be about interest rate policy but about Powell’s loss of control of his own board. That will clearly weaken Powell’s role in early 2026 and accelerate the timing of Powell’s replacement. In effect, Powell will be a lame duck chair.”

Reminder: Powell’s term is up next May. Usually, markets hang on every word uttered by a Fed chair during the post-meeting press conference. But maybe not this time? 

Stay tuned…:

Chuck again… Dave does an outstanding job with his letter and gives me lots of ideas and thoughts… 

Market Prices 12/10/2025: American Style: A$.6649, kiwi .5787, C$.7223, euro 1.1640, sterling 1.3316, Swiss $1.2431, European Style: rand 16.9992, krone 10.1374, SEK 9.3225, forint 329.68, zloty 3.6295, koruna 20.8366, RUB  77.77, yen 156.71, sing 1.2959, HKD 7.7815, INR 89.96, China 7.0633, peso 18.18, BRL 5.4327, BBDXY 1,1213, Dollar Index 99.13, Oil $58.59, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $61.11, Platinum $1,673.00, Palladium $1,509.00, Copper $5.39, and Gold… $4,199

That’s it for today… I met a young lady from Chicago Monday night, at the Mark Twain Gathering, she is the FX person at 5th 3rd bank in Chicago… She wanted to know what I wrote about, and I told her: Currencies, metals, economies and dolts…. of which the Fed Heads qualify for…  That made her laugh…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers football team will play in the Gator Bowl on 12/27 VS Virginia… The Gator Bowl is in EverBank Field, and it would be a hoot to get to go, but airfare is outrageous!  Kenny G takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Silver Bells… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals see selling on Friday
• Watch what you ask for in AI

Good Day… And A Marvelous Monday to you! In what seemed to feel like a very long weekend, I did not attend our subdivision’s Progressive Dinner, and watched my beloved Mizzou Tigers Basketball team play Kansas…  Other than those two things, I really didn’t do anything, so I don’t know why it seemed like a very long weekend… Maybe because I was stuck inside for most of it! After last week and having no Dr appts, I will miss writing tomorrow, because of a Heart Doctor appt. That’s across town too… That will be more than I drove my car in the last 3 weeks! A real jazzy version of the song: Deck the Halls is being played by Rick Braun this morning to greet me… 

The dollar didn’t really get much play on Friday last week; it did gain 1 index point in the BBDXY, but besides that it was a “meh” day…  The euro ended the week above the 1.16 handle, so the rest of the currencies breathed a bit in ease… Gold tried like the dickens to post a gain, but in the end it ended the week down $10 at $4,199, and Silver won back the ground it lost on Thursday, ending the week up $1.22 and closing the week at $58.39… 

It was quite apparent to me that the SPTs were not going to allow Gold to close above $4,200 and Silver above $59…  I mean, the SPTs were quite prevalent and showing off their ability to engineer a takedown of the metals…  Ed Steer had this to say in his Saturday letter: “The U.S. government shut-down has allowed the commercial traders free reign to do as they see fit, without oversight — and their handiwork won’t be fully exposed for another six weeks. And not that I have a conspiratorial mind…but the thought has crossed it on more than one occasion that this government shut-down was allowed to happen — and even encouraged, so that ‘da boyz’ could hide what they had to do from prying eyes for as long as possible. As Yoda said…”Never underestimate the power of the dark side of The Force.”

You can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

OK… The price of Oil bumped higher to a $60 handle to close the week, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose again this time ending the week with a $4.14% yield…  The bond boys sure have it in their heads that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is going to have to reverse their rate cuts in 2026…  It’s nice that the bond boys and me are on the same thought pattern here… 

In the overnight Markets last night….  The dollar is getting sold at the moment, as the overnight markets are looking toward the FOMC rate cut, or debasement of the dollar and trading it accordingly. The Petrol Currencies have perked up with the price of Oil wanting to trade over the $60 handle. The Russian ruble has really picked up the pace, along with the Mexican peso and Brazilian real.  Their moves higher VS the dollar aren’t anything to write home about, but they are at least moving higher… 

The price of Gold starts our day/ week up $10 and back over the $4,200 level that the SPTs were so adamant about keeping Gold below it to end last week. Silver has started the day/ week down 10-cents, so no biggie, and it can be reversed easily… C’mon Silver, you can do it!  

The price of Copper has really taken off, and it trades around $5.47 this morning… Short supplies remains the story with Copper… And without interference, as there has been some recently, Copper should be able to continue to rise in price… 

The price of Oil slipped overnight to a $59 handle, but it certainly was looking as if it wanted to go higher on Friday, so I’ll keep an eye on Oil to see if that “want to go higher ” urge comes back…  And the 10-year Treasury is starting the day/ week, trading at 4.15% yield… I’m telling you now, so maybe you’ll listen to me later… The Bond boys believe that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will have to reverse their rate cuts in 2026, and that they are marking the 10-year accordingly… 

Well, tariffs or negotiating tools as the WH would call them, have done the trick of alienating countries away from the U.S…. Take India for example…  I found this on apnews.com: “Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finalized an agreement aimed at increasing annual trade to $100B by 2030. Bilateral trade totaled $68.7B last fiscal year and was heavily skewed in Russia’s favor. The nations are also pursuing a free-trade agreement for India with the Eurasian Economic Union, a Moscow-dominated bloc of five post-Soviet states. “

Chuck again… sure, it just might me temporary but… Didn’t Nixon tell us that the move off of a Gold Standard was “temporary”?  Why, yes, he did and there are a  number of scenarios in our history that at the time were titled “temporary”… But in the end, they were endless…  I’m just saying… 

De dollarization… it’s the new old-fashioned way…  And no, we’re not rockin’ around the Christmas Tree with Brenda Lee this morning!  And the POTUS has a plan to make the dollar great again…  it involves the use of stablecoins…  I just dont’ see this as the way out of this mess for the dollar, but I’m probably wrong about that, as I was calling Bitcoin a “Ponzi Scheme”…  

Well, the FOMC begins its meeting tomorrow; this is one of those two-day meetings, where the FOMC members get all the board games out and begin to pass the time at the ECCLES Building by playing board games… I always think that you could hear shouts of ” You Sunk My Battleship”…I think that they should at least play a game of Monopoly, so they can see how money flows… I’m just saying… 

The U.S Data Cupboard today is empty, but Friday’s Data Cupboard had the Sept prints of Personal Income and Spending, which saw Income rise .4%, and Spending come in at plus .3%…   Spending was down from August’s back to school gains…  Usually, we see Spending outdo Income…  And I aways wondered how long this could go on?  I guess it all depends on how the credit card companies deal with consumer debt…    And last Friday, we saw the color of the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel’s preferred inflation calculation in the PCE print at 2.8%… Proving what I’ve said all along that inflation is sticky… And it will continue to be sticky and growing by tiny steps into 2026… 

And in a different galaxy far from here… Inflation would remain below our wages… But a recent report showed that: Food Away from the home, Food at Home, services other than rent, and Shelter are all ahead of wages… Only Alcohol and recreation were below wages… So, we can go to a game drink some beer, and know that we were within our wages…   Great!  

Regarding data… I came across this article late last week and though, “oh my”…   

You can find it here: Layoffs in 2025 pass one million as restructuring, AI shifts, and tariff pressures drive elevated job cuts across major industries | Watch

And if you don’t want to click the link… here’s the gist of the article: “U.S. employers have announced more than one million job cuts in 2025 as restructuring, AI adoption, and tariffs intensified layoffs. November saw 71,321 cuts, bringing the year’s total to 1.17 million — the highest since 2020 and 54% above last year. Verizon’s 13,000-plus reductions and AI-related cuts across tech led the surge, while tariffs drove more than 2,000 November layoffs. Planned hiring fell sharply to 497,151, down 35% from 2024.”

Chuck again… I think that when 2026 is about over, we’ll think that these numbers for 2025 were good…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Well, we were data filled today… which is a good way to start the week, in my opinion, as it sets up the week for us to think about… The dollar is in trouble, folks… By next May the new Fed el jefe will be in charge and it is thought to be Kevin Hasset, who is a good ally of the POTUS, so guess what he’ll be bringing to the FOMC? Can you say more rate cuts? I knew you could! And that will be a black shadow for the dollar… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article in Ed Steer’s letter from Friday and saved it for today… It’s about the building of AI…  And it’s something that we all need to keep aware of when using AI, and it can be found here: Mike Howell on X: “Artificial Intelligence doesn’t know the truth and it never will. It can’t. All it can know are patterns stitched together from whatever it digests. And like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. I know this all too well from personal experience: a bad diet has bad https://t.co/9f65h2uF8d” / X

Or, here’s your snippet: “Post

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Mike Howell

@MHowellTweets

Artificial Intelligence doesn’t know the truth and it never will.  It can’t.

All it can know are patterns stitched together from whatever it digests. And like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. I know this all too well from personal experience: a bad diet has bad results.

But at the risk of sounding hypocritical, I have to say it: AI is eating garbage. Tons of it.

And the junk food sitting right at the top of its diet? Wikipedia and Reddit.

The people building today’s AI systems choose what these models are trained on and how much credibility each source gets. They calibrate the entire information diet, and we see the consequences in the outputs.

Take Elon Musk. His model, Grok, is trained primarily on X data.

Meanwhile, models like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini gorge themselves on a steady stream of Wikipedia pages and Reddit threads.

In effect, Reddit and Wikipedia have become the “primary sources” for the machines shaping our political, cultural, and educational landscape.

Think about that: some anonymous basement dweller upvoting a joke on Reddit now influences the answer you get to a serious question about geopolitics, ethics, or history. When you browse Reddit on your own, you understand the context: this is not an authoritative space. But when AI spits that same information back to you, all the context is stripped away.

The information has been laundered, filtered from a questionable source into a polished, authoritative-seeming format.

It would be funny if it weren’t so dangerous.”

Chuck again… Please, be careful out there using AI… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6639, kiwi .5785, C$ .7242, euro 1.1653, sterling 1.3320, Swiss $1.2416, European Style: rand 16.3937, krone 10.1134, SEK 9.3937, forint 328.93, zloty 3.6207, koruna 20.8125, RUB 76.65, yen 155.56, sing 1.2964, HKD 7.7807, INR 90.08, China 7.0682, peso 18.18, BRL 5.4153, BBDXY 1,212, Dollar Index 98.95, Oil $59.28, 10-year 4.15%, Silver $58.29, Platinum $1,667.00, Palladium $1,492.00, Copper $5.47, and Gold… $4,209

That’s it for today… So, like I said above, no Pfennig tomorrow, but I’ll be back on Wednesday…  Tonight is the Dubinsky, Trotter, Lisner Christmas gathering of former Mark Twain Bank employees… It’s held every year at this time, and I really get a kick out of seeing some of my old colleagues… We, as a group, have really grown old, but that doesn’t stop these people from running the world! They are some real go-getters! Not a late night, just an evening soiree… My beloved Mizzou Tigers Basketball team learned that they had some growing to do after losing to rival Kansas yesterday.  And what’s happened to the KC Chiefs? Ron Brown takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Joy To The World…  A real bluesy version too…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Metals see the short paper trades gain…
• The rate cut is coming…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! One week removed from Thanksgiving, and I still feel full! I know, you’re saying, “yeah, we know what you’re full of!” OK, don’t be so harsh! Brr, it’s cold outside, and we won’t get out of the teens today regarding the temperature.  I used to park my car and walk across a open air bridge to our bank building… I would cuss every step of the way, as the wind would blow right through that suspension bridge! It’s a good thing my mom wasn’t around to hear me talk like that! Mindi Abair greets me this morning singing her version of the song: I Can’t Wait For Christmas…  She does the song really bluesy, and I like that… 

Well, the dollar started the day down 4 index points in the BBDXY at 1,213, but then the selling stalled out and that’s exactly where the DDDXY stood at the end of the day 1,213… So, what was up with that? Well, not knowing for sure, but I would say that the PPT came to the dollar’s rescue, and intervened buying dollars to offset the selling. No biggie, they didn’t cause an increase in the dollar, so we move along for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

Gold ended the day flat to up $1 at 4,207… And Silver only gained 11-cents on the day, so it appears that the SPTs were selling the metals but not at takedown levels, just maintenance levels…  The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle, actually right at $59.00…  And the 10-year Treasury stayed trading with a 4.06% yield all day… So, there was little to no activity in the bond… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar didn’t garner any attention overnight, and so the BBDXY starts the day at 1,213.  Not a lot on the dollar’s economic plate today, so it gets a reprieve from getting sold for weak data… But it’s adding up all these little losses, so keep your diversification into the currencies, you’ll be glad you did sooner or later…  Gold & Silver are getting whacked again this morning… Gold is down $13, and Silver is down $1.09… That, Kitco.com says is “modest price pressure in Gold, Silver on routine corrective pullbacks”… I say hogwash!  

Sure, there could be some of that hogwash going on, but the SPTs are out and about and making the sledding for Gold & Silver a tough row to hoe this morning… It all began yesterday… Gold was above $4,200 and Silver had touched $59, and then the trap door was sprung on the tow metals, and the SPTs showed up at the Comex with their arms full of short paper trades… I guess they didn’t like that I said I thought they were losing the battle yesterday…. 

And since when is “modest price Pressure” equal to over a $1 loss? C’mon you’re better than that Kitco! 

Maybe when Silver is trading near $100, we’ll look back at this and say a $1 loss was modest, but not at $59..   

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle overnight…  I still think that the price of Oil lower than I thought it would be right now, with the attack by Ukraine drones of a Russian Oil sector the other day…  There is a supply gut at the moment in Oil so there is that, but, it won’t last long, it never does, so why aren’t they looking ahead? I suspect that the U.S. Gov’t has something to say about that… I’m just saying… 

And the U.S. Treasury 10-year’s yield bounced higher again overnight to 4.09%… You know, when the Fed Heads aren’t in “managing the yield to keep it from going higher” then the yield goes where it wants to go, and that is, higher! 

Yesterday I talked about following the money… And then I read this on Kitco.com: “Central banks saw their strongest month of the year for gold purchases in October, with leading buyers returning and new states expressing an interest in ramping up holdings, according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council… “

Chuck again… Yes, The Central Banks are still buying Gold for their reserves instead of dollars, and now new Central Banks that haven’t participated previously, are jumping on the wagon… The thing I thought of when I saw the time in their buys is that they did this all during the month of Rocktober, when Gold & Silver were getting the snot knocked out of them by the SPTs…  So, now my head is spinning with an idea, let me throw that against the wall and see if this sticks…   The Central Banks gave the SPTs the wink and nod to go ahead and take down the metals so they could buy them cheaper…  Hey! Don’t laugh! It could quite have possibly worked that way!  

Hey, listen, I’m really knocked for a loop this morning. The steroids I’m taking (my last day) really mess with my being able to fall asleep at night, and so it was last night, I was up until 3.30 a.m.  I heard the alarm on my phone go off at the usual time, and I just turned it off…  But I got up eventually, and drug the line over to my writing desk… So, the letter is a little later than usual and it will be shorter, because I hear the sandman calling my name right now… UGH! 

The data, I’ll go through in just a minute is not what a strong economy shows…  And the loss of jobs in this country is building momentum… And so, there will be a 25 Basis Point rate cut next week…  That’s already being priced in so, I don’t expect there to be much damage when the actual rate cut is announced on 12/10. 

Even with the over $1 pullback by Silver this morning, Silver has actually doubled its price this year!  My friend, Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies told his clients the other day that Silver had doubled its price in 2025… And I sat there and thought… Yes, and without interference from the SPTs Silver would have probably tripled in price this year…  That would put Silver around $86… Yeah, that sounds about right in my mind… I’m just saying

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ADP Employment Report for us yesterday and in November U.S. Corporations and Businesses axed a net 32,000 jobs… So, this will have to work for the markets because the BLS is not going to issue a labor report for Rocktober.  So, the labor market is weak, very weak I’d say… But I would bet a bottom dollar that IF the BLS did issue a report, they would show a positive gain for jobs! 

Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have Personal Income & Spending for Sept…  Wait! What? Sept? Yes, that’s how far behind they are… So, it won’t make a hill of difference what happened 3 months ago to the markets… We’ll also see the NOV PCE which is an important inflation calculation…  Personal Consumption Expenditures… 

To recap… The dollar selling that was going on in the overnight markets Tuesday night, stopped when the U.S. took over yesterday morning…  PPT intervening? Probably, so we’ll just move on… Gold was flat to up a buck yesterday, and Silver gained a whopping 11-cents… The SPTs were out and about yesterday again… Seems like an every day occurrence these days… They may not always take the metals down, but what they do is keep the metals from taking off for higher ground… 

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this is a very long article, so I suggest you click on the link and read the entire thing, because I won’t be able to include ½ of it in the Pfennig this morning. This is article about how physical Silver is KING…  And not to be short Silver now and it can be found here: ‘Physical is king’: India’s silver demand collides with 25-year supply gap, Baker warns | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Silver’s record-breaking run is being driven less by hedge funds and more by a wave of physical demand that the mining industry cannot quickly meet, a longtime U.S. silver mining executive said in an interview with Kitco News.

“The physical market is driving the financial market in a way that it hasn’t done in my career,” Phil Baker said, describing what he heard at the London Bullion Market Association’s recent annual meeting. “It was interesting. I was at the LBMA annual meeting and the quote of the meeting was ‘physical is king.’”

We’re in a very different place than we’ve been in the last 20 years.”

Baker, the former chief executive of Hecla Mining and now an adviser in the sector, said the stress he observed among bullion professionals was unlike anything he had seen before. “I was really struck at the LBMA at the stress that was felt by the market participants with silver, and it was… stress that I had not seen before,” he said. “It’s really clear to me that these guys are not going to allow their inventory levels to fall to the same levels they were before.”

India as “the driver”

While investors have focused on Western futures markets, Baker argued that India now sits at the center of the silver story.

“For me, the thing that really drives silver is what’s happening in India,” he said. “That is the driver. That literally is the driver.”

He noted that India, now the world’s fifth-largest economy, has seen silver imports soar. In October, India imported around 60 million ounces of silver, compared with about 15 million ounces a year earlier, he said. “Despite the fact that silver is at all-time highs in rupee terms, the demand has been, as I described at the Perth Mint, insatiable,” Baker said.

According to Indian trade and government data, India’s silver imports did surge in 2023–24 after a sharp drawdown in prior years, making it one of the world’s largest silver consumers alongside China.

Baker said the destination of the flow of metal out of London has been unmistakable. “If you look at where the silver went from London, it went to Mumbai,” he said.”

Chuck again… Remember when I told you that India had taken to buying Silver and not just Gold any longer?  Well, this plays nicely in the sandbox with the FWIW article today… 

Market Prices 12/4/2025: American Style: A$ .6606, kiwi .5763, C$ .7156, euro 1.1665, sterling 1.3335, Swiss $1.2489, European Style: rand 16.9363, krone 10.0974, SEK 9.4019, florint 327.45, zloty 3.6279, koruna 20.7155, RUB 77.02, yen 154.82, sing 1.2957, HKD 7.7835, INR 89.97, China 7.0716, peso 18.26, BRL 5.2951, BBDXY 1,213, Dollar Index 98.89, Oil $59.58, 10-year 4.09%, Silver $57.43, Platinum $1,644.00, Palladium $1,475.00,  Copper $5.34, and Gold… $4,194

That’s it for today and this week… We have our subdivision’s annual Christmas Party, (progessive dinner)  with each serving at a different person’s house… We have hosted this party for the last stop several times through the years, and when we were younger, it could be a very late night, but not any longer… By 10 o’clock the neighbors are rolling up the carpet! My beloved Mizzou Tigers basketball team plays Kansas this Sunday… The old Border War… They played at Mizzou last December with Mizzou upsetting the highly ranked Jayhawks, I am hoping for much of the same on Sunday! And also on Sunday will be Alex and Grace’s 1^st year anniversary… Congrats you made it 1 year! That was the most difficult one for us…  And in June next year, we will celebrate 50 years! I can’t believe we’re that old, but we are…  Vince Guaraldi Trio is taking us to the finish line today with his version of: What Child Is This?  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!  And Be Good to your neighbor! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts yesterday, but gets sold last night
• Copper is soaring again…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  It’s cold outside and from what I heard last night it will be even colder tomorrow! YUCK! This is getting to me already! Don’t want to leave the warm house, and therefore I’m cabin stuck!  And now, we don’t know when we’re heading to Florida, as Kathy nixed the 12/30 flight I had earmarked… UGH!  But I’ll get there eventually and leave all this cold air behind! I just finished another book last night, and now am looking for my next read…  What will it be?… The Stephan Kummer Trio greets me this morning playing their version of: When My Heart Finds Christmas… 

Well, the dollar continued to range trade between 1,217 and 1,219 yesterday, finally settling the day at 1,217… Same level as the previous day’s close… The dollar was sliding all last week, and then suddenly stopped on Monday this week… I know, there’s a ton of data to be printed in the coming days, but we all know that most of it will be soft to bad for the dollar, so what are the dollar bugs waiting for?  Take it down now!  Don’t wait until you get caught with your pants down! 

Gold, was still seeing the SPTs at work yesterday, the physical Gold buyers tried to keep Gold’s head above water, but the paper trades out did them and Gold lost $12 on the day to end the day at $4,206…  Silver saw much of the same in trading but in this case the physical buyers out do the paper trades and Silver gained 38-cents to close the day at $58.41… 

The price of Oil slid back to a $58 handle… I read a report yesterday that talked about how here in the State of Missouri, gas prices have fallen below $3… And in some cases, below $2!  Right on time for the Christmas holiday, where money is tight, and a lot of folks need all the help they can muster… 

And the ten year Treasury’s yield dropped a bit to a 4.08% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar finally found some direction, and the BBDXY starts the day at 1,213 down 4 index points from yesterday.  The rate cut talk has increased and now the interest rate futures are 87% sure that the FOMC will cut rates next week on 12/10…  I know, I know, I switched the days of the rate cut, as I used to say it would come on 12/11, because that’s what I found on the Fed’s web site… But it’s really 12/10… So, se la vie! 

Gold is starting the day getting bought, but the buying is not mania-like, just a normal trading pattern, that Gold has missed so often when the SPTs are off counting their money that won with the last short paper engineered takedown. Gold is up $6 to start the day… Silver, which outshone Gold yesterday, is up 18-cents to start the day…  

I wanted to mention that Copper is really taking off again, as Silver drags it along with Silver’s ride higher…  The last time I talked about Copper, I talked about how a shortage in Copper was really driving the price higher, and so it is the same reason it’s soaring higher right now.  I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning regarding Copper: “Year-to-date, copper is up 30% on the LME as investors pile in – both on the lucrative U.S. arbitrage trade that is fueling shortages elsewhere, and on long-term structural demand from the “Next AI Trade” and major power-grid build-outs.

Commenting on copper markets, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that the U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and is about to ignite another leg higher in prices.

“This is the big one,” Bintas told the media outlet in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”

Chuck again…  I think I’ve told you that I have a friend that sells electrical things like industrial lighting and such, and he was complaining about the Copper price rising last year when I saw him. With Copper at 5.34, he’ll really be complaining this year! 

The price of Oil bumped higher in its current range trade to trade with a $59 handle… The 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped a little more overnight and starts the day with a 4.06% yield… The rate cut that’s coming, is in play here. I had been really confused as to why the bond boys were taking the yield higher last week, but then I figured out that the bond boys were looking way ahead…  And now their focus has come back to the present time… 

Circling the wagons around, we find Silver champing at the bit and taking out the short players one by one… The SPTs are like the wolf that’s always at the door, but I think that they are losing the battle, with the physical buyers of Silver and ETFs knocking them for a loop… This battle will eventually be lost by the SPTs, but they’ll go down fighting, so dont’ panic whenever you see a coordinated downward more in Silver… You what I’ve always told you: That a star burns brightest right before it burns out, and this is what the SPTs look like to me right now… 

And the Bank of America (BOA) came out and said that December is going to be a tough row to hoe for the dollar with all of the data that’s backed up gets released, and the data will not be good for the dollar…  Hey! They’re singing my song there!  You don’t think they read the Pfennig, do you?  

Back to reality here…  In the currency roundup this morning you will find China’s renminbi trading with a 7.06 handle…  The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) has allowed the renminbi to gain VS the dollar by a large margin this year… It’s part of their long-term plan to devalue the dollar… Remember, China doesn’t do things at the drop of a hat pace, they take their time and let the pieces fall where they will, which is usually in their favor… My dad used to tell me… “Chuck, China is a sleeping Giant, and we, as a country, had better not awake them.” 

Well, too late… China has been awakened and they are building infrastructure, open markets, bond liquidity, a payment system to rival SWIFT, and all sorts of other things that go with a rising Empire… Think back to the industrial age when the U.S. came out on top, this is what China looks like today, awaken, and jostled out of bed, and ready to take on the world… 

I talked about how gas prices are dropping around the nation above, but what gives here? The price of Oil continues to trade near the $60 handle, and there’s been no real change there, but gas prices are coming down? As I said above, that’s got to be Manna from Heaven for the middle-class folks… 

Time to go buy a new gas guzzler I guess… HA! I used to drive a BIG gas guzzler, and I would talk about it, and readers would chastise me for driving a Big gas guzzler… Hey! I would tell them I can afford the gas, so this is what I love to drive! 

The Indian rupee just hit a $90 handle…  They have seen better days there, but not now, as the trading world sees the tariffs on India as a real problem, and have sold rupees.  The selling of rupees started as small moves, but now the small moves have all come together, and you have the rupee trading at multi-year lows VS the dollar…  Good thing, the rupee isn’t part of the BBDXY! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report for this month, and like I said yesterday, this will be looked at by the markets for signs of labor weakness…  And I repeat myself here, but The ADP Employment Report should be used by the markets as the “go-to report” on labor, instead of the BLS’s pile of lies and hedonic adjustments… But then that’s just me… The markets seem to like the BLS’s lies and then their admission of lies and their downward revisions to their previous reports… Who wouldn’t like that?  I kid of course… 

To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday, but got sold overnight, as the FOMC rate cut day draws near, and the dollar will be debased once more… Gold saw the SPTs yesterday, and Silver did too, but Silver won the day… Copper is soaring and the shortage in the metal is to blame… And the Chinese renminbi is getting noticed…  And Chuck is complaining about the cold weather already! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this morning, I have for you an excerpt from my friend Dave Gonigam’s 5 Bullets…  It’s about the dollar and it can be found here: www.paradigmpressroom.com

Or, here’s your snippet: “There’s a lot of noise and misunderstanding when it comes to the dollar surrendering its status as the world’s reserve currency.

Your editor has been following the “de-dollarization” phenomenon since 2014 — the ongoing effort among governments in the Global South to get out from under the dollar’s influence.

A lot of internet screamers try to convince you there will be ONE BIG ANNOUNCEMENT any day now in which the dollar will collapse and life as you know it will be over. (The “Operation Sandman” rumors of 2023 were an especially silly example.)

The reality is that de-dollarization is a process, not an event.

Paradigm macro maven Jim Rickards reminds us that it took 30 years for the British pound to surrender its status as the globe’s reserve currency to the dollar — from the outbreak of World War I in 1914 to the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.

The transition from the French franc to the pound during the 19th century also took many years — as did the transition from the Dutch guilder to the franc in the 18th century.

A quarter of the way into the 21st century it’s still hard to envision what the new reserve currency might be: The euro was never a credible competitor to the dollar and China’s government imposes so many restrictions on the yuan that it can’t mount a credible challenge, either.

At best, economists can merely foresee that the dollar’s share of global transactions will continue its steady decline.

But this much is already apparent: The BRICS nations are developing an alternative payments system, bypassing the dollar, with gold as its foundation.

Between that and continued central bank gold buying (see the chart above)… the dollar price of gold can only go higher from here. Act accordingly.

And don’t overlook silver.”

Chuck Again… I know that Dave reads the Pfennig from time to time, and so I hope he gets a kick out of seeing his words, used here in the Pfennig…

Market Prices 12/3/2025: American Style: A$ .6588, kiwi .5750, C$.7173, euro 1.1669, sterling 1.3301, Swiss $1.2498, European Style: rand 17.0822, krone 10.0764, SEK 9.3844, forint 326.27, zloty 3.6227, koruna 20.6906, RUB 77.87, yen 155.41, sing 1.2943, HKD 7.7842, INR 90.91, China 7.0636, peso 18.25, BRL 5.3217, BBDXY 1,213, Dollar Index 98.94, Oil $59.41, 10-year 4.06%, Silver $58.59, Platinum $1,654.00, Palladium $1.476.00, Copper $ 5.34, and Gold… $4,314

That’s it for today… Well, let me the first to thank out loud, a long time reader, and friend, James Marquart for entering and sponsoring,  not only me, but Dennis Miller also, to be named a “Kentucky Colonels… A certificate is in the mail to me…  I’m so excited about this that I’m giggling like a schoolgirl! I was alone at home last night, and watched my beloved Mizzou Tigers basketball team lose a game to Notre Dame… It was their first loss of the new season, so, lick your wounds and come home Tigers…  I hit the jackpot asking for help with a gift idea for Kathy… Thank you, Lynn and Lisa… you are stars! The Stephan Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today, as they play: I’ve Got My Love To Keep Me Warm… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continued to get sold on Monday…
• But the SPTs were out and about too!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, back on steroids for a week has fixed my digestive system problems, so I’m a happy camper this morning, after having a restful night of sleep with no interruptions… It snowed again yesterday and then again last night… Not a ton of snow, we got 6 inches on Sat, and 2 or 3 yesterday… The commutes around the area have been slow, and I’m so glad that I didn’t have to go out in this mess and report to work! I used to always be the first one in and then my phone would start ringing and it would be employees asking me how the roads were… I always told them they were fine for me, just to get them to be brave and come in to work! I’m listening to Stephen Kummer’s Trio on the CD player this morning and it’s his CD titled: Christmas In The City… 

Well, I shouldn’t have made the statement about the SPTs coming back yesterday, because as soon as they arrived at their desks, Gold began to lose its early morning $33 gain, and soon it was struggling to maintain a positive gain on the day, but that wouldn’t be, as the SPT’s left Gold down $20 on the day at $4,218…  Silver, on the other hand, was still being able to trade on its own devices, and it gained $93-cents on the day to end the day at $57.13… 

I have a alternative viewpoint for you on Silver’s big move last Friday… Check this out: “Again…”Silver’s initial post-Thanksgiving lift-off was rumored to be the result of some 400 million ounces of the metal standing for delivery — with such delivery being impossible to accomplish, thus leading “someone” to blink out the entire Comex trading system.

That interruption in Comex trading was officially blamed on the failure of the cooling system in a data center, with the double- or triple-redundant nature of such systems adding fuel to the conspiratorial fire.” That came to me from the good folks at GATA, and that’s none other than Brien Lundin talking in his weekly letter than can be found here: www.goldnewsletter.com

Chuck again… Hmmm.. Conspiracy stories, I love them! I used to get called on the carpet all the time for telling my conspiracy stories, that through time have become conspiracy facts!  But I’m no longer working for a company that was afraid of what I might say, and I’ve grown or matured a little more through the years, so I don’t go out on limbs any longer, but this conspiracy theory has a lot of legs to it, I think…  think about this: the COMEX is about to have a deficit in physical Silver, so what to do? Pull the fire alarm and distract everyone…  Oh yeah, there’s something there, but no journalist has the cajónes to look under the hood, and so we’ll just go along thinking that there was an electrical problem…  

But if 400 million ounces of Silver were standing for delivery, that means the COMEX would be short Silver… And they couldn’t have that happening so, they pulled the fire alarm! Much like when I was in grade school, it always seemed that the fire alarm would go off right when it was coming to my turn to answer a math problem! 

The dollar spent the day, much like some of the cars on the snowy roads, spinning its wheels, and ended the day in the same clothes as it started the day, with the BBDXY remaining at 1,217…  In the early morning, the dollar was getting sold and the BBDXY was down 2 index points… But as the day went along, the dollar fought back and ended unchanged for the day. 

The price of Oil bumped higher again and ended the day trading with a $59 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose higher again this time to end the day with a 4.09% yield… Isn’t the rate cut supposed to happen next week? Then why are the bond boys selling bonds?  Well, to me it seems that investors are demanding higher yields, to combat inflation that’s rising… Yeah, that’s the answer! 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar selling stopped, for the time being that is… The BBDXY is up 1 index point to start our day, but in reality, it’s still drifting about the sea with traders not sure whether to take it lower with the rate cut looming on the horizon tomorrow.  The euro is still trading above the 1.16 handle this morning, so not is all lost with the currencies… 

Gold is starting the day down, as the SPTs are out and about… Gold is down $8 to start the day today, and Silver is down 23-cents…  After going over several handles, Silver was bound to see some selling, and so we start out day with Silver on its heels…  The price of Oil remained in the $59 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some more yield added to its yield to 4.11%… I find this very interesing that the yield of the 10-year is rising in th face of a rate cut coming next week… 

Did you hear that the Gov’t’s Rep Facility is working overtime again?  Tons of cash is being dispersed using the facility to banks… Hmmm… Seems I’ve heard this before… where-o-where have I heard that? Oh, yeah! Remember in March 2020,  the banks were hitting the facility like Hank Aaron hit baseballs, and then along came the Covid plandemic and the Fed’s suspended the facility for a while, and then no one heard of it until recently, when the facility was used to facilitate loans to banks that totaled $10 Billion…  There’s something going on here folks, that’s fishy to me…  So, I’ll keep my ear to the ground and try to figure it out, but my spider’s sense is tingling and that tells me that something bad is going on…  

Well, I got curious about how long Gold has been booking monthly gains… And it went back to last June when Gold finished the month at $3,303… Seems like a long time ago, right? September saw the biggest monthly gain of $528…  And Rocktober saw the lowest amount of gain (remember the daily pounds of flesh the SPTs were taking in Rocktober?)  $28…   Someone was spouting off about how the stock market has gone up so many months in a row…  and I thought but what about Gold?  And just for further intrigue by me, Gold has gained $1,420 from 12/31 to yesterday’s close… Pretty impressive, and to me, it’s really good run is yet to come…  

I read yesterday that investors are no longer buying physical Gold to watch it go to $5,000 and then sell… They are holding it through its gyrations of price for the protection it provides…  Well, I would really like to see the numbers that they used to get to that thought…  Because it’s has been my contention that investors in the West use Gold as a trading vehicle… And Silver too… But we’re talking about Gold here, and profit taking is a part of their vocabulary and practice it all the time… I’m just saying…

And Silver is going great guns right now too… and in my view it’s all about the shortage in physical Silver that I’ve talked about for years… This from Kitco.com: “the strain emerging across the physical supply chain. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, according to exchange data. China also exported roughly 660 metric tons of silver to London in October, an unusually large shipment that traders say helped ease tightness after a surge in delivery requests on the LBMA.”

Chuck again… Central Banks are turning to physical Gold & Silver for their reserves instead of dollars or whatever currency belongs to their biggest trading partner…  And I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again… My dad taught me to “follow the money”…  And the money is going to Gold & Silver right now…  Again, I’m just saying…

The dollar has two major headwinds blowing right at it… The Tariffs that will cause inflation, job losses, and promises… And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is on a rate cut cycle, that debases the dollar….  So, if you were a Central Banks, and had credit from trade and taxation, would you put the credit in dollar reserves or Gold or Silver? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ISM manufacturing index for this current month, and it fell from 48.8 to 48.2… Hey! Weren’t the tariffs supposed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S?  Well, apparently, they are slow to respond, as the manufacturing index is falling instead of rising…   Today’s Data Cupboard only has Auto Sales for November to print…  And tomorrow we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for Nov… this should be good fodder for the markets…

To recap… The STPs made sure that investors knew that they were still around when they took Gold down yesterday… Silver actually trading albeit briefly, above $58 only to see it get smacked down to the $57 handle, still a gain on the day, but not as great a gain as it once had earlier…  Chuck goes through the number for Gold this year… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I saw this and was shocked! I thought the Tariffs were supposed to relieve us of our debt?  What gives? This article talks about how the budget deficit in Rocktober was the largest deficit ever, and it can be found here: Feds Run Biggest October Budget Deficit Ever Despite Record Tariff Revenue

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal government took in a record amount of tariff revenue in October. It also ran the highest October budget deficit on record.

The Trump administration spent $284.35 billion more than it took in to kick off fiscal 2026. That was about 10 percent higher than last year’s October deficit and about $200 million more than the previous October record set in 2020 during the pandemic lockdown era.

The deficit was inflated by the shifting of some November benefit payments back into October.  If we factor out those calendar effects, the deficit would have been $180 billion. While a 29 percent reduction from last year’s October deficit, it would still rank in the top four highest October shortfalls on record.

Keep in mind that Uncle Sam ran this massive deficit while the government was “closed.” A Treasury Department official told Reuters that it was unclear how much spending was reduced by the government shutdown, but estimated it was less than five percent of total outlays.

Salaries and other outstanding obligations that were not paid during the shutdown are now due, as the government is fully operational again. That means we could see a spike in spending in November.

Record monthly tariff receipts totaled $31.4 billion. That was a 330.1 percent increase in customs receipts compared to October 2025.

It should be clear that claims that the federal government is going to use tariff revenue to pay a “dividend” to poor and middle-class taxpayers and pay down the national debt are nothing but political rhetoric. Math is the great enemy of this ambitious plan.”

Chuck again… remember that the budget deficits go directly to the National Debt and do not pass Go or collect $200…   And I saw last week that we as a country, go through $1 Trillion of debt every 100 days…  a little more than 3 months…  How long can this go on?

Market Prices 12/2/2025: American Style: A$ .6553, kiwi .5724, C$ .7140, euro 1.1619, sterling 1.3207, Swiss $1.2434, European Style: rand 17.1047, krone 10.1540, SEK 9.4589, forint 327.87, zloty 3.6479, koruna 20.7998, RUB 77.28, yen 155.96, sing 1.2975, HKD 7.7864, INR 89.87, China 7.0714, peso 18.31, BRL 5.3587, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 99.42, Oil $59.17, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $57.48, Platinum $1,637.00, Palladium $1,487.00, Copper $5.27, and Gold… $4,210

That’s it for today…  I looked at flights going to our winter home yesterday, and think I have one for us, leaving 12/30…  We don’t like more than 1 change in planes, and no more than 5 hours travel time, so that narrows the available flights by quite a bit… Our Blues really laid an egg last night VS the Ducks… UGH! Baby, it’s Cold Outside! And you know me, I totally dislike the cold weather! I ‘m all bundled up and not enjoying myself sitting outside these days… Oh well… 12/30 can’t get here fast enough for me… Not that I want to rush through Christmas, it’s just that I need to get out of here!  The Stephan Kummer Trio plays the Christmas Waltz for a song at the finish line today… So, I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets sold every day last week!
• Silver is the leader of the Pack!

Good Day.. And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was grand… Mine was, although I suffered from a bad stomach all day… And Friday too! UGH! I’m having the same reaction to my infusion that I did in August… That’s not good, folks… They may have to take me off the chemo drug I’m getting infused In me once a month… And then I’m left with nothing, nada, nil, zlich, zero to fight cancer that’s in me… So, let’s hope my digestive system heads quickly, so we don’t go down that rabbit hole… It’s time for Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station, and today Boney James is playing his sax to: Sleigh Ride

Well,  on Wednesday last week, the dollar traded in the same clothes as it wore on Tuesday and the BBDXY remained at 1,223. I guess all the senior traders set out to head home wherever that may be, early, and the junior traders were scared little girls to make a call on the dollar. 

On Thursday, our Thanksgiving Day, the foreign markets sold the dollar and it ended the day at 1,219 down 4 index points in the BBDXY. 

There was some action, mostly SPTs on Thursday in Gold & Silver… Gold ended the day down $7 and Silver down 4-cents… 

The junior traders that were in charge of the trading on Friday, still wouldn’t make a call, on anything, but the foreign markets did, and the dollar got sold some more, this time down 2 index points in the BBDXY.

And with no SPTs to show for, the metals traded on their own devices Friday and hit the ball out of the park! Gold gained $62 and Silver gained a whopping $3.09… Gold finished the week at $4220 and Silver at $56.35… See what I mean when I say if the metals were left to their own devices and not under the pressure of the SPTs? 

The BBDXY ended the week at 1217, which was down from 1223 to start the week, and down from 1226 the Friday before…  When you debase the currency, this is what you get, and nowadays you get it before the actual rate cut, because of futures trading, which by the way stock futures ran into a roadblock power outage on Friday… Too bad all futures had a power outage here after!  I can only wish…

The good folks at FXStreet.com that post my Pfennig each day, wrote this morning that the dollar index fell every day last week, for the first time since April…  and starts this week with a heavy bias to fall further, ahead of the next FOMC meeting next week. 

Chuck again… so, the euro has climbed back over the 1.16 handle to start our day/ week and appears ready to take on any dollar weakness in the coming days. The Chinese renminbi was allowed to trade with a 7.07 handle… And the rest of the currencies including the two leaders last week, the Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble are following the Big Dog euro down the street to chase the dollar… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $58 handle, and the 10-year Treasury, after briefly falling to a 3.99% yield, ended the week with a 4.01% yield.  

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar continued to get sold, with the BBDXY showing another 2-index point loss to 1,215… And Silver continues its charge through Richmond…  Silver is up 97-cents this morning, and has gone above the .57-cents handle… Gold is also charging ahead and has added $33 to start our day and week, Gold is at $4,253…  The metals bugs have come back to their desks after the Thanksgiving week holiday… And they say, that Political, Fiscal, and Financial Risks are enough for them to take the metals to new heights…  And I didn’t even mention geopolitical problems…  

Silver seems to be the leader of the pack, that is until the SPTs come back and take a pound of flesh from Silver’s gains last week. I know, I know that it’s not good to think about bad things happening before they do, but then that’s how I think, so let’s just hope that the same thing doesn’t happen to the leader of the pack that happened to the leader of the pack in the song by the Shangri-Las…. 

The interest rate futures are pricing in an 80% chance of a FOMC rate hike next week, so there will be no surprises, next week…  The POTUS announced that he has already picked out his replacement for Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell…  And this new guy will be leading the call for lower rates, but the same members of the FOMC will remain and that will be a sticking point for the FNG… (As my good friend Ty Keough, used to call anyone new on the trading desk)  Recall that 3 members of the FOMC voting group questioned the need for further rate cuts after the last rate cut? Well, we’ll see convicted they are about their positions next week… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $59 handle in the past 24 hours, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has bumped higher to start the day/ week with a 4.04% yield… The bond boys seem to have said to themselves last week… “what are we doing? We should wait-n-see if the FOMC does indeed cut rates before we price it in”…  

Did you hear that the BLS will NOT issue a jobs report for Rocktober?  Why not? I hear you asking… I really don’t know why, maybe they’re just to lazy to cook and massage the numbers, or, there was no one to take the surveys, and now to go back to add them all up would be very laborious… Gov’t workers, what do you expect, A-One work habits, when the worst that can happen is that you get promoted? 

Here I go carping and complaining about the Gov’t again… When they are as much to blame for the mess we as a country are in right now, as the Fed/Cabal/Cartel… 

Here’s Bill Bonner on Money Supply, which in my definition is inflation, but I digress, here’s Bill: “the money supply (M2) in the US just hit a new record high, at $22 trillion. That’s up from just $650 billion in 1971, when the Funny Money Era began. In that year, GDP was around $1.2 trillion; it’s now $28 trillion. In other words, the money supply has grown about half-again-as-much as the supply of goods and services.

And public and private debt — the dark side of credit — has gone up even more…from 125% of GDP in 1971, it is now around 260% of GDP. In other words, for every dollar’s worth of GDP in 1971 (before the Funny Money Era began) there was $1.25 of debt. Today, there is $2.60. That’s an additional 135% of GDP — or $38 trillion worth of spending that is untraceable to any increase in output. Naturally prices have gone up to absorb the additional liquidity.”

Chuck again…  Bill was giving his  “Thanks” for funny money…  Bill always hits the nail on the head! And to think that I complain about the Gov’t too much! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn’t have as much data as last week, and the real meat gets printed on Friday, but between then and now, we’ll see the ISM for Sept, which will be old and stale, and who will care? Not the markets, that’s for sure…  On Wednesday, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for Nov. And THAT WILL BE LOOKED AT BY THE MARKETS, for any assurances that the Fed Heads will cut rates next week on 12/11… 

To recap… It was a whirlwind week for the metals last week, as the SPTs were gone by Tuesday and the metals were left to their own devices… It was not a banner week for the dollar, and appears to have returned to its underlying weak trend…  Money Supply issuance just hit a record level, and Private Debt is soaring! 

For What It’s Worth… not too wordy today on the FWIW article… The main thing is going to the link and viewing the chart that appears and then read along about since the implementation of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel the dollar’s purchasing power has gone to hell in a hand basket… You can find the chart here: Charted: The Declining Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar

Or, here’s your snippet: “The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen over time due to inflation and the ever-growing money supply.

The U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, ending dollar convertibility to gold.

Western powers developed the Bretton Woods Agreement after WWII, which saw all national currencies valued in relation to the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar has steadily lost value over the past century. According to Federal Reserve data, the purchasing power of one dollar today is equal to just a few cents in 1913 (the year the Fed was created).

In this graphic, we track the decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar since the early 1900s, illustrating how inflation has eroded its value.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). It measures the “Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar” across all U.S. city averages, indexed to consumer prices.

The higher the index, the more purchasing power the dollar has. As the index declines, goods and services become relatively more expensive.

Inflationary Eras and Economic Shocks

Major inflationary periods can be identified by looking at the steepest drops in the chart. For example, World War I and World War II strained government finances, leading to massive increases in public spending and money creation, which pushed prices sharply higher.

Similarly, the oil shocks of the 1970s caused energy costs to spike throughout the world, feeding into broad-based inflation. In each case, rising prices significantly eroded the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.”

Chuck again, and again go to the link above to see the chart. It’ll blow your mind that our currency has lost so much purchasing power…  And it’s not MY fault, or your fault either; it’s the Gov’t. Treasury, and Fed Cabal that’s to blame!

Market Prices 12/1/2025: American Style: A$ .6556, kiwi .5739, C$ .7160, euro 1.1637, sterling 1.3252, Swiss $1.2468, European Style: rand 17.0801, krone 10.1143, SEK 9.4193, forint 326.98, zloty 3.6341, koruna 20.7623, RUB 77.79, yen 154.95, sing 1.2943, HKD 7.7888, INR 89.55, China 7.0716, peso 18.27, 10-year 4.04%, Silver $57.32, Platinum $ 1,695.00, Palladium $ 1,457.00, Copper $5.30, and Gold… $4,253.00

That’s it for today… Well, November is over thank goodness, and now onto December, which if it wasn’t the onset of really cold weather I would appreciate it even more… So, Welcome to December… I haven’t thought of a thing to buy Kathy for Christmas yet… I hope I come up with something soon… My days of getting her something that she really loved are over, if she wants something, she buys it, leaving me out of ideas…  Any help would be appreciated!  Lisa, Lynn, Dawn, Rachel, Grace?   My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their last regular season game on Saturday against Rival Arkansas; that leave us with an 8-4 record, which used to be a highlight, but not any more with the new Mizzou Tigers! …  The Stephan Kummer Trio plays: It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year as our finish line song today… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler