Author: admin

• the dollar bounces back… who’s buying?
• ADP Employment shows weak labor demand….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to and all! I’m all dazed and confused, not like the 80’s movie… I’ve got my days mixed up again. All day long yesterday, I thought it was Thursday… What a Dolt!  So, when I pulled up the blank page to write today, I realized that today is Thursday!  UGH!  I was so ramped up to go to our local watering hole thinking it would be Tomorrow (Fri)  My beloved Cardinals after getting thumped on Monday, came back to win the next two games VS the A’s… So, I was happy about that, and in fact I sat outside listening to the game for a while, with good friend Duane, before the rain chased us off…  The Jefferson Starship greet me this morning with their song: Miracles…  (  A great song!)

Well, this Pfennig is going to be a little different, in that, it is going to be one long FWIW, that I think is VERY IMPORTANT for you as an investor needs to read. But first the recap of yesterday’s trading, and of course that piece I wrote 15 years ago that I promised you yesterday…. So, let’s get going, this is going to be a long Thursday Pfennig…

The dollar continued to get sold yesterday after Tuesday brief rally… The BBDXY lost   2 index points, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,205… And,  the currencies, not led by the BIG DOG euro, as we’ll see why in the FWIW article today, all gained VS the dollar yesterday.  

Gold also continued to get bought, until it ididn’t.. At one point in the day, Gold was up to $3,565…. But then the SPT’s went after Gold & Silver with vengeance Gold lost $ 13 to close the day at $3,527…  

Silver also was gaining yesterday, until the SPT’s showed and up and took Silver down to 49.63… Silver had traded over $41.26 yesterday…  But those dastardly SPT’s always have to pull the punch bowl from Gold & Silver’s party, don’t they? 

Did you hear that the U.S. US, the US Government (Department of the Interior) has just added silver to its draft list of Strategic Minerals ?This is the first time silver has been included.  And it’s BIG NEWS for Silver!

Treasuries were bought yesterday, who foolishly thinks that Treasuries are a safe haven as they once were…. The 10-year Treasury’s yield fell to 4.  %…

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar was bought again… Recovering the 2 index points lost in yesterday’s trading the BBDXY starts today at 1,207… I found it very interesting that on Monday, when the U.S. SPT’s and the PPT were barbequing on their patios, that the BBDXY fell below 1,200…  Right?  The currencies have taken one on the chin again, but what else is new?   

Gold participants signaled a sigh of relief overnight, that the SPTer’s didn’t do more damage to the metals, and they decided to dip their toes back in the metal’s markets, so, Gold is up $18 to start our day today, and Silver is up 18-cents… I know, those gains are just a coincidence, and I normally don’t believe it coincidences…   The ADP Employment Report out this morning already, is helping Gold gains, since it showed a very weak labor demand number, and therefore puts another notch in the rate cutter’s belts… Oil is getting treated like rented mule again and starts our day trading with a $63 handle… 

The 10-year Treasury boys saw the ADP Employment number and went to work lowering / thus buying the yield in the 10-year to 4.19% this morning… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the July Factory Orders, and they were negative -1.3%, better than June’s -4.8%, but still negative… That’s not good folks…   Today we got the ADP Employment Report for August . And the report showed that only 54,000 jobs were created in August… So, you can see now why Gold is getting bought again, but doesn’t explain the dollar rallying… So, questions, questions, tons of questions…

To recap… The dollar fell back to its underlying trend of weakness yesterday, after the brief rally on Tuesday… Maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) someone said, “What, Wait! The dollar is no safe haven any longer!”  Gold continues to soar along with Silver and Silver had some BIG NEWS attached to it last week…  Chuck is in a foul mood this morning, so get ready for a BIG FWIW article this morning…

15 years ago, I used to work or EverBank and on the side I wrote and did videos to subscribers at the Sovereign Society (Agora Publishing back then)  and one of the pieces I wrote was about how China was changing their viewpoint on their internal currency, the renminbi…  The Chinese had decided to make the renminbi more flexible in price and to get it out in the hands of countries all over the world…  The Chinese came up with a plan to distribute their currency-by-Currency Swap Agreements… This would remove the dollar from the terms of transactions that were taking place all over the world every day… China had already signed up quite a few countries to do currency swaps with, when I wrote about this… And I said then that when the OPEC countries signed on to do currency swaps, then it was over for the Petrol dollar…    Well, nothing has changed in the 15 years since, except the usage of dollars around the world… China is still working on distribution of their currency to any country that will swap with them…  This way, China doesn’t have to take dollars in the terms of transactions, and they don’t have to put those dollars to use buying Treasuries…  A Double-Edged Sword for the dollar, folks… 

For What It’ Worth… This is from Von Greyerz and their main writer, Mathew Piepenburg… And at the end of this, all I have to say is… GOT GOLD? VON GREYERZ_Monthly Gold Briefings_September 2025_V2

Your Snippet: ” On August 25th, 2025, the Prime Minister of France, François Bayrou,

 delivered one of the most important political speeches in recent times.

Important because of its honesty about the perilous reality that France now

 faces.

 It’s worth reminding readers exactly what he said:

 The great empires have now chosen to impose their laws by force. Military force with Russia’s never-ending assault on Ukraine. Commercial showdown with an unbalanced and unfair competition on hundreds of products from powerful China. The domination of the customs duty policies unilaterally imposed by Mr. Trump’s United States.

 Europe is not doing well, either. She should speak with one voice, but is too often divided, with everyone trying to seek their own advantage first.

Mario Draghi, this weekend in Rimini, pronounced a phrase that I believe we can all make our own – he said this summer that the dream of a Europe that counts in the world has vanished.

 An immediate danger weighs upon us, which we must face not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but today without delay of any kind- otherwise the future will be forbidden to us…

Our country is in danger because of the risk of over-indebtedness… Debt dependence has become chronic in France, and this money borrowed, in the hundreds of billions, has not been used as it should do, invest, to provide our country with the best equipment it was used for current expenses.

 As you become less and less salvageable, you become more and more expensive. This is the vicious circle, and there is no way out of it if we do not become aware of the seriousness of the risk and this inevitability.

 So, I know that it is easier to ignore all of this, to continue to act as if we can continue without changing anything… And if the path we choose is to pretend, to pretend that the problem does not exist, then I tell you, as I believe it from the bottom of my heart, we will not get out of this.

We, France, together will not get out of this. As a state and as a society, because it is our freedom that is at stake, it is our sovereignty and our independence, because, as we all know, if you are financially dependent as a state. It is as if you are militarily subjugated; it is the same thing.

 Very few politicians these days are prepared to say it as it is.

So, to have a Prime Minister in a country the size of France effectively say that European ‘project’ is over and (ultimately) at risk of bankruptcy was remarkable.

 One can perhaps imagine this honesty about a country’s debt coming from a small Latin American country or some other emerging market.”

Chuck again… France is a Big Part of the European Union folks, and yes it would take a myriad of years to untie all the strings that attaches the EU countries to each other, the mere fact that it would be on the way, is something I never thought would happen in my lifetime… And it probably won’t, but it’ll be close, because of DEBT! And then that got me wondering, who will be the U.S. statesman to speak these words to U.S. citizens?  Probably not that far down the line folks… 

And as far as the euro goes… it will be a yo-yo going forward, between the euro and the dollar, for the dollar is in deep dookie too…  Not that I’m making a recommendation but the Swiss Franc would be a better European exposure in my humble opinion of which I could be wrong! 

Market Prices 9/4/2025: American Style: A$ .6511, kiwi .5849, C$ .7236, euro 1.1635,  sterling 1.3432, Swiss $1.2408, European Style: rand 17.7773, krone 10.1050, SEK 96453, forint 337.18, zloty 3.6549, koruna 21.0218, RUB 81.66, yen 148.44, sing 1.2895, HKD 7.8002, INR 88.15, China 7.1411, peso 18.78, BRL 5.4574, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $63.18, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $40.85, Platinum $1,395.00, Palladium $1,1154.00, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $3,543

That’s it for today and this week… no Pfennig on Sunday this week! A great day yesterday, beautiful for sure… I sat outside to read, and eventually got too hot for me… I used to be able to stand the heat of the day, Shoot Rudy, as a teenager I built in-ground swimming pools in Oklahoma! Now those were HOT days! I’m so glad that my stomach and digestive problems have abated, and I can eat food again without worry of having to run to the bathroom… (TMI)? Sorry… Some readers want to know, and others do not… So, I tell! Come back on Monday… I’ll have some GREAT NEWS (not about me) to share with you, regarding my publisher… The Yardbirds take us to the finish line today with their song: For Your Love…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, pretty please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold And Silver are soaring!
• Is France the new Canary In A Coal Mine?

Good Day… and a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  And Welcome to September, a fews days late…. Well, I finally felt a bit better to get outside and do some cooking this past holiday weekend. Monday, I put my world-famous Turkey Roast Breast, wrapped in bacon, and let the Big Green Egg do the rest! It was YUMMY! Yesterday was a day to break out the Brownstone and grill some brats… And again, they were YUMMY! I even celebrated and had a nice cold one while cooking.. I hadn’t had a nice cold one in over two weeks!  And again, that was YUMMY! Stevie Guitar Miller and his band greet me this morning with their song: Living In The USA

Well, my visit to the hospital didn’t take too long to go through the blood tests results and what not… So, that was a good thing… For I really wanted to see where Gold was going after a strong gain on Monday, Sept 1… This from the Good Folks at Gata regarding Monday:  Gold hit a more than four-month high today to trade around $23 shy of all-time highs, buoyed by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets and a softer dollar, while silver breached $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011.

Spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,477.56 per ounce by 9:37 a.m. ET, its highest since April 22 when it touched a record-high of $3,500.05. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,547.70.”

Chuck Again… Well, the next stop for Gold is $3,00, and for Silver, The next stop… $50… and then to infinity and beyond! (Buzz Lightyear) 

There weren’t the number of dollar traders around on Monday, but the dollar did lose one index point in the BBDXY to 1,200… Yesterday, when the markets came back from the long weekend, and at one point of the day on Monday, the BBDXY was 1,198… Sinking away… on Monday… 

The price of Oil climbed higher in the $64 handle on Monday…  See what the commodities can do when left to their own devices?  

In yesterday’s trading, the dollar bounced back, (for what reason?) The BBDXY gained 6 index points to 1,207… The euro had climbed over the 1.17 level on Monday, but gave it back on Tuesday with the dollar rally… Gold, however, rallied once again and yesterday it gained $ 66…  To close at $3,543. While the wolves were at Silver’s door yesterday, and SPT’s took Silver downward, but… But showing who’s stronger now, buyers or sellers, Silver ended up at $40.93, so we’re still on the way to Infinity and Beyond… 

Bloomberg.com had this online this morning regarding the Dollar rally yesterday:  “The dollar strengthened the most in a month as investors reached for safe havens amid a broad pullback in global stock and bond markets.”  

Ahem… beg my pardon here, but Bloomberg.com still thinks the dollar is a “safe haven:?  Well, bust my buttons! You learn different things about people and companies in times like this, don’t you?   I did here, for sure! 

The price of Oil has gotten a bee in its bonnet lately, and yesterday the price of Oil traded over the $65 handle… It ended the day trading with a $65 handle… And the 10-year saw its yield pulled higher by the activity in the 30-year, which is nearing 5% yield once again… The 10-year’s yield closed yesterday at 4.28% yield… 

In case you’re a new reader, or missed class the 100 times I’ve discussed this before… I use the 10-year Treasury as my point on Bonds, because the 10-year is used to price mortgages, and other types of loans, so it’s very important!

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar buying that took place yesterday, stopped overnight, and BBDXY lost 1 index point overnight… I can hear the foreign traders talking among themselves, “Did you see that our brothers in trading over across the pond are saying that the dollar is a “safe haven, we don’t and we’ll show them!   (of course that was me not the foreign traders, but can’t you see them laughing right out of their chairs? )

The euro is getting dragged down from the recent speech by the French Prime Minister, Bayou, that France is toast, and the rest of Europe needs to stand together to make this thought, but instead, the Eurozone members are trying to be different from each other…   YIKES… has France become the new “Canary in a Coal Mine”? I took that from the great Mathew Piepenburg’s letter… so, kudos to him! 

The yield on the 10-year slipped back to a $64 handle overnight, apparently someone in Oil Industry told the world yesterday, that there will soon be a GLUT of oil supply… Sticks and stones may break my bones, but your words will never hurt me… Well, not with the price of Oil… 

And the 10-year also saw slippage in its yield and starts today with a 4.27% yield… 

 Last week, I thought it was that I told you that Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s independence was getting drained from them… And then I can across this from investinglive.com that they took from an interview that VP JD Vance did with U.S.A Today… here goes: “Vice President Vance in an interview on Thursday, on dismantling Fed independence: “I don’t think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people…POTUS is much better able to make these determinations.”

If you were in any doubt this clears it up. It might take some time, but Trump seems to get his way eventually.”

Oh-no! For the longest time I said that interest rates should be set by the Bond Boys of which POTUS is not one of those… Sec of the Treasury, S. Bessent was a bond boy in his days, and he should be pushing back on the White House taking over interest rate setting… But then maybe he fears for his job if he pushes back?  

That’s not earth-shattering news to me that the Fed has lost its Credibility and independence, but it is earth-shattering news to me that The W.H. Wants to take it over….. Heaven Help Us!   SERENITY NOW!

You know that the chance of runaway inflation that I spoke of in Sunday’s Pfennig? It could get to us much faster… Got Gold?

The other thing that caught my eye these last couple of days is that Student Loans are very deeply deficient in their repayments… I know that Student loans aren’t the same apple as the Housing debacle we had 18 years ago… But one thing leads to another, and soon it will filter over the Housing…  That’s just how I see it happening, so take that with as many grains of salt that you wish…  Remember 2007? Lehman Bros folded, while The Gov’t saved Bear Stearns…  The Lehman Bros folding was the straw that broke the camel’s back, and soon Insurance Cos, Casino Banks, Auto Co’s i.e. G.M., and everything you could point at was failing…  it only takes one snowflake to start an avalanche, folks…  again.. Got Gold?

Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me this after reading my Sunday Pfennig: “Afterthought…..  If the electorate listened to the people, the 2008 bailout NEVER would have happened.  I think it failed the first vote, passed by one vote the second time, and polls showed overwhelmingly the public was against bailing out the banks….

Yes those dastardly bail outs of the Casino Banks… We should have as a country let those that had to fail and take bail outs, to fail… then we could have cleaned up a lot of the debt mess and started clean.. The Austrian Economists have always taught that a boom cycle needs to be followed by a cleaning out of all excesses to start over again with a clean slate.. And then the growing can begin in earnest, not with Bill Bonner calls “Phony Money”  

So, where does that leave us this morning? The dollar is getting taken downward, the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel is getting ready to cut rates, which should make the dollar even weaker, And inflation is in the dark alley just waiting to jump out a scare the Bejeebers out of us!  Get this, spell check doesn’t like my word: Bejeebers… Who cares?

And the stock market shrugs it all off, and the sheeple just keep buying, because their investment advisor or whomever counsels them on stocks, keep telling the sheeple that “everything will turn out peachy”….. You know like when Big Ben Bernanke told us that the housing wasn’t a problem back in 2007?  I wonder how many people went ahead and bought a house in this time, only to find out that they owed more on the house after it had lost all that value?    That’s why it’s better to listen to some country bumpkin like me that sees things in logic, than some professional who has a dog to hunt in the stocks, houses, cars what have you he’s selling?  

Oh! And there’s one more thing that’s troubling me these days, and it’s what’s going on in Emerging Markets debt…  You see, that most Emerging Markets debt was denominated in dollars… But now China has gone to these Emerging Markets and told them they would refinance the loans in renminbi… China has told them all about how the U.S. froze Russian asset, etc. and it could happen to them even easier… So, you can guess what’s going on here, right? The Emerging Market Countries are swapping their dollar denominated loans to renminbi denominated loans….  That means they’ll be even less use for dollars going forward… 

I’ll have something more on this tomorrow, it goes back to my writing days (on the side) for the Sovereign Society… That was more than 15 years ago! So, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel… 

The U.S Data Cupboard this week will be a busy week for data prints… It all starts today with Factory Orders, Job Openings, and the Fed Beige Book, which used to mean something to the markets but these days, no one pay attention to it any longer… Tomorrow, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for August…  And the latest print on the Trade Deficit, which should be HUGE because Co’s. Have been stockpiling inventory ahead of the Tariffs…   And then on Friday, it’ll be a Jobs Jamboree Friday, with the BLS printing their fantasy number on Jobs created in August…  Remember, the new head of BLS has taken over and this will be his first print of Jobs numbers… Wanna bet that there were changes to the fantasy jobs the BLS adds to the surveys?  

To recap… The dollar is getting sold, (although it’s rallying today) interest rates are coming down, The long end of the bond market is going to visit 5% soon, and the debt just continues to grow… Gold and silver seeing these things are attracted many new and old buyers , and are heading higher… and the SPT’s are shocked to see this happening before their eyes…  But remember, the wolf is always at the door?

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is from Yahoo Finance, and it talks about how the Manufacturing sector is in deep dookie… and it can be found here: 

Or, here’s your snippet: “The US manufacturing sector continued its sluggish year in August.

Data out Tuesday from the Institute for Supply Management showed the ISM’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 last month, an increase from the reading of 48 seen in July but below estimates for a reading of 48.9, according to Bloomberg data. Readings of less than 50 on the index indicate a contraction in activity in the sector.

This marked the sixth straight month of contraction in the US manufacturing sector, according to the ISM’s reading.

The new orders index within the ISM’s report, however, rose to 51.4, indicating expansion, and marked a strong uptick from the 47.1 seen in July. The production index fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July.

“In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate, with new orders growth the biggest factor in the 0.7-percentage point gain of the Manufacturing PMI,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s survey committee. “However, since production contracted at a rate nearly equal to the expansion in new orders, the Manufacturing PMI increase was nominal.”

Respondents to the ISM’s survey widely cited tariffs as putting pressure on their planning, sales, and costs.

One contact in the electrical equipment industry told the ISM they’ve raised prices by 24% so far, but these increases will only offset tariffs, meaning their margins won’t actually improve as a result.

“In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce,” this contact said. “These are high-paying and high-skilled roles: engineers, marketing, design teams, finance, IT and operations. The administration wants manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but we are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It’s survival.”

This report also showed, however, that tariffs continue to act as a headwind for manufacturing. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s chief business economist Chris Williamson said in the report that factory inventories rose on concerns over coming price hikes and potential supply constraints.”

Chuck again… tariffs… see what they can do for us? Yeah, maybe our revenues from tariffs might make a difference, but I doubt it given all of the legal entanglements coming from them… I guess, we’ll have to wait-n-see?

Market Prices 9/3/2025: American Style: A$.6538, kiwi .5867, C$ .7246, euro 1.1643, sterling 1.3414, Swiss $1.2430, European Style: rand 17.6326, krone 10.0398, SEK 9.6406, forint 337.49, zloty 3.6487, koruna 20.9733, RUB 81.42, yen 148.63, sing 1.2886, HKD 7.8013, INR 88.06, China 7.1454, peso 18.69, BRL 5.4482, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.26, Oil $64.24, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $40.91, Platinum $1,412.00, Palladium $1,165.00, Copper $4.63, and Gold… $3,543

That’s it for today… I know, I know the last two Pfennigs have been more of a “let’s see what Chuck as to say” and not your usual discussion about economies, markets and dolts… On Sirius XM the Classic Vinyl station had the Top 500 classic rock songs looping over and over again so if you missed a portion of the countdown, you could pay catch up… Lots of the song played are on my phone…  The Top 2 songs were Hotel California #2, and Stairway To Heaven at #1… In case you wanted to know… I actually got out and drove my car a couple of times over the weekend. I love to drive… Ever since I turned 16, and found that driving gave me freedom… I still take long drives to nowhere just to feel like I’m escaping and getting away!  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: Don’t Take Me Alive..  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and will Be Good To Yourself!   I know I missed Pfennig Tradition last Thursday when I signed off and didn’t end it with: An I’ll see you in Sept”…   oh well, I do my best… 

*currencies and metals rally on Friday

• What on earth is a mother to do?

Good Day… And another Super Sunday! Don’t get used to this, because I’m not going down this rabbit hole… I’m writing to you today, because I told you that I would write next on Tuesday, but the doctor changed that schedule, and I’m due at the hospital for tests bright and early Tuesday… Paul McCartney and Wings greets me this morning with their song: Nineteen Eighty-Five

I used to be able to play that song on the piano, but like my guitar I left it behind once I was diagnosed with cancer… Being that there were bigger fish to fry… Or something along that line…  I know, no excuses, as the old Football coach used to bellow, Excuses never won a game for anyone! 

Ok, enough of that… Well, Friday brought me to thinking about some interesting thoughts that I’ll lay out for you here, which is the reason I’m writing today…  But first…

First off, the dollar fought back after getting sold for two days last week and looked like it would win the day…  the day gaining on Friday. The BBDXY finished the week at 1,201, after a slew of data brought the dollar’s brief rally back to earth, and the dollar ended Friday, flat…   

Gold went into the 3-day weekend gaining a bit on Friday. Gold was up $32 and closed at $ 3,448. Silver saw its time above $40 short-lived on Friday but did gain 71-cents and went into the weekend at $39.73.  Gold is eyeing $3,500 and Silver is eyeing $40, and I do believe that tomorrow while the U.S. markets are closed and there will be no SPT’s around to stop the foreign markets from taking both metals over their next plateaus…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see tomorrow, eh?

The price of Oil went into the weekend trading with a $64 handle… That’s a two-day mark for Oil, which has seen every attempt, prior, knocked down to the $63 handle… So, good for you Oil!

And the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.23% yield into the weekend… 

There were no overnight markets on Friday night, so that’s where we stand until Tuesday… There will be foreign markets open on Monday, but I doubt they will move the meter much… 

OK, I’ve beaten around the bush much too long here… The first thing I was to talk about are house prices…  But first, let me take you back to 2002, when I wrote a white paper title The Decline of the Dollar… In it, I listed all the things stacking up against the dollar, which at the time had been in a long strong trend that had lasted 7-years… One of the things I listed was that I thought that Home Prices were in a bubble and would soon come crashing down… 

This was 2002… the housing bubble didn’t crash until 2007…  But the point I’m making here is that I saw it first, and chronicled it, right there in the white paper…  That’s to say that I think I have a finger on the pulse of Housing…  And I’m not even in that business! 

Ok, so the Case/Shiller Home Price Index has taken a fall…  I’ve chronicled here in past Pfennigs each time the index is up for a print that the previous month saw home prices slip, and this month should be the same… So, there’s been some slippage, but the June HP Index dropped 7 percentage points, and to me this is not slippage…  Home prices grew at the slowest pace in two years, reflecting, in my mind, extraordinarily weak demand… 

So, I’m climbing out on a big fat limb here and saying that Housing is due for a correction and this looks like it is it…  I’m certain that someone with far more gray matter than me, and being a wordsmith, would be able to explain this to you better than I, but what would you have to pay for those words?   

The second thought I want to share with you something that I’ve talked about for some time now, our debt, and how we finance the debt… We all know we finance the debt with the sales of Treasuries…  I came across this last Friday, in friend, Dave Gonigam’s 5-Bullets with comments by Stefan Gleason: “Trump can bulldoze his way through resistance within the U.S. — and he can strong-arm foreign allies into concessions, until they cease to be allies — but there is one great immovable power that is beyond his reach.

“He cannot force the global bond market to buy U.S. Treasuries and fund his debt.”

That means Treasury notes and bonds are a long-term loser”

Chuck again… and that means.. Who will be left to finance our debt? The only answer to that is we will… The Fed/ cabal/ Cartel will have to print Trillions of new dollars to be the buyer of last resort…  That means we are self-funding the spending of Congress and the POTUS, and if the last visit to the la-la-land of Fed printing dollars to buy Treasuries from failing banks, we all know what became of all those dollars, right?  Inflation… and if that inflation was enough to cause many to default, then this inflation will be the worst we’ve ever seen on our shores… 

Sticky inflation becomes runaway inflation… Can you deal with that?  I if you can then you have stockpiled Gold… I’m just saying… 

So, in the end the Mar-a-Lago Accord I talked to you about the other day, will take a back seat to these two thoughts… And with that I’ve said enough for a Sunday, no go to mass, or church, or temple, or whatever you do on a Sunday morning… And pray that these things never-ever happen…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the PCE for July, and the Core reading rose to 2.9% (that’s less food & energy)… The all-in PCE (personal consumption expenditures) stayed steady at 2.6%…  All, in all I think that this is not enough to stop the FOMC from cutting rates this month…  We also saw Person Income & Spending, which showed why consumer debt is rising and spending is rising…   Hmm… isn’t both of them rising good, I hear you ask?  Well… I guess, as long as spending and expenditures are the same, but in this case we spent more than we made, and that’s not good… 

And one of the small reasons that 2^nd QTR GDP was revised upward to 3.3%…  The thing that makes up a lot of the GDP calc is Gov’t spending, and we all know that Gov’t spending was through the roof in the 2^nd QTR… So, take this GDP print with a grain of salt… It’s backward looking for one, and two, it’s full of traps to get you believe the economy is peachy keen… The Stupid Consumer Sentiment for August fell to 58.2 from 61.7…  At least that’s moving in the right direction as consumer feels that the sticky inflation is really causing them problems… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, Gold & Silver shot to the moon… and Chuck gives us his two thoughts that keep him from having a good night’s sleep! 

Market prices , on Friday,  8/29/2025: American Style: A$ .6540, kiwi $.5893, euro 1.1686, sterling 1.3504, Swiss $1.2472, European Style: rand 17.6566, krone 10.0587, SEK 9.3877, forint 339.41, zloty 3.6580, koruna 20.9296, RUB 81.06, yen 147.05, sing 1.2840, HKD 7.6956, INR 88.20, China 7.1307, peso 18.65, BRL 5.4297, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $64.01, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.73, Platinum $1365.00, Palladium $1,129.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $3,448

That’s it for this Sunday… With each day that passes the temps warm up a bit more than the previous day, but still not regular August summer heat weather!  I missed my heart doctor’s appointment on Friday… UGH! I simply lost track of the time, it was morning, and I was eating my Raisin Bran, and said, oh-no! I’ve been eating a lot of cereal since these stomach problems began… Something sweet and a bit good for me….  At the end of this next week, I’ll be traveling to San Diego for a wedding… My son, Alex grew up and his best friend was Jack, who we took on vacation with us a few times…  Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome I hope you have a Super Sunday and a great holiday, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday
• The Fed Independant? NOT!

Good Day… and a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals got good pitching last night, but no hitting and lost 2-1. UGH!I had a dear friend of mine contact me yesterday and wanted to how to subscribe to my letter… I was honored to say the least! I hope she does! ( I gave her instructions) It’s been quite a few years now since a marketing dept attempted to market my letter… So, I’ll take any additions that come my way!  The late Great Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island… 

Well, the dollar was skitterIsh yesterday, and tried to go lower, but… I’m sure the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) saw to it that it didn’t slide too far. The BBDXY lost 1 index anyway, and the index ended the day at 1,204…  It didn’t matter to Gold, which gained $32 and closed at $3,397, which is so near to $3,400 that it could spit in $3,400’s back yard… Remember what I told you yesterday, the SPT’s have an axe to grind with Gold going over $3,400, so if it doesn breach that level today, then the SPT’s will be out in force… 

Silver also gained 41-cents yesterday, and closed at $38.88, as Silver tries like the Dickens to get to $40… Because once Silver gets over $40, I feel the next stop will be $50… To Infinity and Beyond! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 throughout the day yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buyers… Really? Right? But it did and the yield on the bond fell to 4.22%

In the overnight markets last night… the skittish dollar yesterday carried over the overnight markets and the dollar got sold with the BBDXY down 4 index points to start today at 1,201… The euro had been tugged and pushed around like a rag doll recently, but with the dollar weaker, the euro is looking healthier…  Overnight, Gold was bought in the early markets and is up $9 to start our day… and Silver is up 18-cents… Both metals have gone past phycological level overnight, with Gold over $3,400 and Silver over $39 at this point, before the SPT’s arrive at their desks…  

Well, there was news yesterday that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is going to lighten up their supply of U.S. dollars and swap them for euros…    That can’t be good news for the dollar, but excellent news for the Eurozone and the euro! 

And in another news story that I read, Larry Summers (we all know him as the former Treasury Sec under Clinton who coined the phrase “A strong dollar is in our best interests”   He stated that he believed that the POTUS’ firing of Lisa Cook (The fed head) for lying on her mortgage application, will be historic…  No kidding, Mr. Obvious!  See what happens when you’re put out to pasture you’ll try anything to get your mug on TV again! 

Circling back to the dollar…  you know, with inflation continuing to rise again, this is going to be a nail in the dollar’s coffin…  and will be a bonus for Gold… So, keep that in mind when the inflation numbers are released again… 

Well, yesterday the 50% tariffs on India became a reality and so did our Political friendship with India… India will just turn to China (whom they’ve been fighting conflicts with for a very long time) and send their goods there… China will be glad to receive them with no strings attached…  I’m just saying…

The heat on the Treasuries with the POTUS firing the Fed Head, hasn’t really fazed the 10-year Treasury too much, instead the markets are taking it out on the 30-year Treasury… The long bond as they used to call in on the Bond Desk.  The gap between the 5-year and 30-year yields is steepest since 2021.   And that was during the plandemic… Yes, I meant to spell it like that… more is coming out as time goes on about the whole mess so read up so you know….  

The thing that really gets me is the repo market was in deep dookie in Sept 2019, and with each month the numbers were looking like the who repo market would implode, and then COVID appeared, and everyone’s attention shifted from the problems in the repo market to the virus…  What happened to all those problems? Did the Banks get some secret money to make it all disappear?  I don’t know… But I wish I did!

And don’t look now, oh go ahead and peek at the currency roundup if you want to, and you’ll see that China’s renminbi has been allowed to strengthen to 7.13… That’s the highest-level VS the dollar that I can remember short term, without going to Google and asking, which I’m in no mood to do, so there! The Chinese are selling less to the U.S. because of the tariffs, so why not allow your currency to gain on the dollar?  That’s how I see it… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today gets back to economic table today with first, the usual Thursday fare Weekly Initial Jobs Claims…  And then a little later this morning we’ll see the fist revision of 2^nd QTR GDP… A lot has happened to the economy since the 2^nd QTR, so truthfully, I don’t see any reason to go through all this! 

To recap… The dollar looked jittery yesterday but Chuck thinks that the PPT helped the dollar get through the day with only a 1 index point loss in the BBDXY.. Gold & Silver had banner days…  And if those dastardly devils (SPT’s) left the metals alone to trade on their own, we would be having this conversation bout banner days nearly every day!  Larry Summers throws in his 2-cents… And the Swiss National Bank is going to sell dollars and buy euros… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve talked about the POTUS’s firing of Lisa Clark (Fed Head) two times this week, and the more I thought about it the more my thoughts came around to this email I received from the good folks at GATA. And it’s about that and can be found here: Why Trump’s challenge to Fed’s independence may make gold the ‘safe haven of choice’ for investors – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “President Donald Trump made a move to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, potentially undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds — and boosting the appeal of gold and other assets perceived as safe havens.

“The Fed’s independence is its calling card, and the move to fire a governor is a direct assault on the Fed’s ability to manage monetary policy free of political motives,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management.

When you start to erode faith in monetary policy for the world’s reserve currency, you are playing with fire,” he told MarketWatch. “If the market believes the Fed is making policy in reaction to direct political influence, U.S. assets will become less attractive.” …

Stefan Gleason, president and chief executive at Money Metals, told MarketWatch that the notion of Fed independence is a “myth.”

The Fed is “an inherently political institution, not only because the Board of Governors is appointed by the president with Senate confirmation, but our entire monetary system is now political in nature,” he said. “We no longer have sound money backed by gold, but political money, where policymakers centrally plan the economy via changes to monetary policy.”

That won’t stop some investors, however, from clamoring for alternatives if trust in the Fed is broken, risks to the U.S. dollar and bonds rise, and inflation climbs.

Traditionally, higher inflation has been hedged by real assets — commodities, including gold, oil, and industrial metals, said BNY’s Robert Savage.

Gold just might top that list. “Gold would be the safe haven of choice” for investors if the Fed were ever to lose its independence, said Chris Gannatti, global head of research at WisdomTree, which sees any threat to Fed independence as a “powerful catalyst for gold demand.”

Chuck again… Mr. St. Aubin (above) had better watch saying bad things about the POTUS, he might get fired too!  And this article is behind a subscription wall, so I brought you what I could, but in the end I have just one question… Got Gold?

Market Prices 8/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6527, kiwi .5873, C$ .7265, euro 1.1671, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2479, European Style: rand 17.6308, krone 10.0613, SEK 9.4828, forint 339.85, zloty 3.65067, koruna 21.0355, RUB 80.31, yen 146.93, sing 1.2833, HKD 7.7958, INR 87.62, China 7.1316, peso 18.61, BRL 5.4119, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.94, Oil $64.09, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.06, Platinum $1,358.00, Palladium $1,119.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold… $3,406

That’s it for today… And this week!  I was supposed to be going to lunch with my classmates this afternoon, but instead I’ll be at the hospital getting stuck with needles… I didn’t choose the doctor’s visit, but after I told her of my problems since the last infusion, she said get into her STAT! This will be a long 4-day holiday weekend as Monday will be Labor Day…  The annual Butler Family Labor Day BBQ and Pool party won’t be held this year.. In fact, it has only occurred one time since 2020…  Last year I was too under the weather to have it, and this year too…   It’ll come back next year.. As the Cubs fans used to say, “Wait till next year!” Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Moondance…  (I love this song and used to be able to play it on my guitar!) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and all weekend, Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Buter

• currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• The SPT’s can’t stand Gold over $3,400

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Man, that was difficult to watch! My beloved Cardinals pitcher game up 8 runs to start the first 3 innings… That was downright ugly pitching, and the pitcher should be sent down the minors and forgotten about! Oh, there goes Outlook again telling me there’s a softer way of saying that! Shoot Rudy, if soft was what I was after, I would have said it so his feelings wouldn’t be hurt! I talked to my oncologist yesterday about how I’ve been since the last infusion, and she wants to see me immediately on Thursday…  (She secretly has a crush on me and can’t stand to have me away for a month! ) HAHAHAHAHAHA As If!  Chicago greets me this morning with their song: Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?   

It’s good for me to see I can still laugh at myself and other things…  My good friend, Rick B, sent me a tik-tok video clip of a SNL ski that was all about Beavis and Butthead from the 80’s… I laughed until I cried! 

Well, the dollar was sold on Monday night into Tuesday by 2 index points, and then proceeded to stay at down 2 index points all day Tuesday… So, no movement from the overnight selling… I wondered what was going to happen with all the jitters around the POTUS’s claim that he would fire Lisa Cook aka Fed head… Well, stocks got sold, but Gold got bought! Gold gained $29 on the day to close at $3,394

The $3,400 level for Gold has been a stumbling block and it’s time in my mind that the Gold traders take it past $3,400 and not look back!

Silver rode Gold’s coattails yesterday and gained 24-cents to close at $38.67… I’m waiting for all the Silver pundits to come out and tell us that this is Silver’s time to close the gap with Gold… That may happen, in fact Silver normally does outperform Gold when the two rally… That is outperforms on a percentage basis… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day with a 4.27% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… And once again, the SPT’s made sure Gold didn’t run past $3,400 as they hit Gold again and the shiny metal is own $19 to start our day today… Silver is really getting the snot kicked out of it and is down 41-cents to start the day today… UGH!   The BBDXY is trading in the same clothes as yesterday, and starts the day at 1,205…  The dollar’s flight has not connected to the metals this morning, and that’s one of the tell-tale signs that the SPT’s are at work… 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield stuck on 4.27% yesterday, and remains at 4.27% this morning… 

Circling back to Silver… I came across this and thought it best I shared it with you regarding Silver… “Physical investment is a structurally important part of global silver demand, and the most volatile. Notably, over the past 15 years, physical silver investment has ranged between a low of 157.2 million ounces (Moz) in 2017 and a record high of 337.6 Moz, established in 2022. With growing geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, and an increasing investor perception that silver is undervalued compared to gold, the silver price has experienced a 34 percent year-to-date increase. By comparison, the white metal is outperforming gold, which is up 28 percent, and Bitcoin, rising 18 percent year-to-date.” -sharps pixley

Chuck again… I agree, physical ownership is very important to not only Silver but Gold too… if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it… That was what a trader told me many, many years ago. 

Do you ever get the feeling that, here we are with the dollar on tenterhooks, the Debt unsustainable because of the debt servicing costs, and the overall confidence in it all is weak at best, but somehow, someway, just as we near the cliff, something will take place that brings it all back and gets people loving the U.S. again? 

I do, because I read a LOT, and come away with thoughts that we, as a country could very well bypass the default stage by some unknown miracle…  

Well, now there’s this that was reported on the International Man site…  The Mar-A-Lago Accord could be that “miracle”…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, and this is no spoiler alert, because I don’t have an inkling of what the Accord contains, but if rumors are true, it contains a way to reset the price of Gold, and to tie to the dollar somehow… 

So, I hope the powers that be don’t make us wait too long to find out the contents of the Accord… But I’m sure they will, they” have to play this out so that the dark shadows are cast on the U.S. and just when everything looks like it’s crashing in on us, they will pull out the Accord like a magician pulls a rabbit out of his hat, and Suddenly, the sky is blue, the sun is shining and there’s nothing but seashells and balloons … I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the July Durable Goods Orders, and just like I said they would, they printed negative -2.8%… Today’s Data Cupboard is barren, so there’s that… 

To recap… The dollar hasn’t moved in a day, but Gold & Silver sure has, as yesterday they rallied big time, and today they are seeing the SPT’s back at COMEX with arms full of short metals trades… I told you yesterday that the POTUS had stirred up Wall St by announcing that he had fired a Fed Head (Lisa Cook)… There’s never a dull day in the POTUS’s world… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article very interesting in that even the best credit worthy Americans are falling behind on payments. That article can be found here: US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments

Or, here’s your snippet: “(Reuters) -U.S. consumers with the highest credit scores are starting to fall behind in debt repayments, credit scoring company VantageScore said in a report published on Monday, in a sign that Americans’ financial health may be deteriorating more broadly.

Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.

In relative terms the sharpest increase in delinquencies was seen in superprime and prime customers who are typically considered the most financially secure, Rikard Bandebo, chief economist at VantageScore, said.

“Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.”

There has also been an uptick in late-stage delinquencies in auto loans and mortgages, as consumers grapple with budget strains, Bandebo added.

Defaults in early stage, which constitute late repayments between 30 days and 59 days, increased at the fastest pace in auto loans and mortgages.

“Defaults on secured loans, such as mortgages, typically happen only when the pressure on finances is too much for the consumer to manage,” he said.

Prime customers have credit scores between 661-780, while super prime customers have scores between 781-850, according to VantageScore.

Americans are getting more sensitive to price changes. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, has scooped up market share from rivals as wealthier consumers frequent the store more often, worried about the effects of tariffs on prices.

U.S. consumer sentiment also softened in August as households anticipated higher goods prices because of import tariffs. Inflation concerns have been weighing on consumers.”

Chuck again… Well, you know how I took care of not ending up on one those delinquent lists? Not have DEBT! I know for lots of people that’s not possible, but if you just put your mind to cleaning up your debt, you’ll be amazed how far you get! I got into a lot of trouble when I first said this years ago… Debt is Slavery…   But those folks in marketing that didn’t like that, aren’t around any longer, so neener neener neener…. I tried to explain to them that it was the title of a book, but they weren’t buying it… 

Market Prices 8/27/2025: American Style: A$.6467, kiwi .5822, C$ .7221, euro 1.1583, sterling 1.3426, Swiss $1.2394, European Style: rand 17.7582, krone 10.1832, SEK 9.5965, forint 342.63, zloty 3.6869, koruna 21.1815, RUB 81.34, yen 148.14, sing 1.2895, HHD 7.7832, INR 87.65, China 7.1627, peso 18.72, BRL 5.4316, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.65, Oil $63.65, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $38.26, Platinum $1,346.00, Palladium $1,111.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $3,375

That’s it for today… I have doctor appts on back-to-back days starting tomorrow… UGH!  I have to see a new doctor on Friday about my AFib…  that should be interesting… Today is doctor free! So, I think I’ll settle into my chair outside and do some reading in the warm sun… The temps here in St. Louis have really dropped from the usual temps in August… Strange? You bet it is! This weather reminds me of summers in Vancouver… Or San Diego…  Or Denver…  all places that normally experience temps like we’re having now… Radiohead takes us to the finish line today with their song: Karma Police…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

• the dollar gets sold, Gold gets bought on Friday!
• Did Powell really tell us anything new?

Good Day… And a Super Sunday to you! Yes, this is coming to you on Sunday, as you might recall me telling you last Thursday that there wouldn’t be a Pfennig on Monday. But, there was so much that went on Friday, and this couldn’t wait until Tuesday to tell you… This won’t be like the Sunday Pfennigs that I used to write, decades ago, so don’t freak out, as this will be short-n-sweet… I watched our City STL soccer club’s game last night… What a joke the referring is in the MSL! The Penalty shot called on the STL club was a ghost penalty!  Oh well… Maroon 5 greets me this morning with their song: This Love

Well, he said the magic words last Friday… Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel decided that he’s taken enough of the guff from the POTUS, and told the crowd at Jackson Hole that “interest rates will be cut soon” according to the markets… What he actually said was that “conditions may warrant rate cuts”…  That’s not exactly what the markets took him to say, but that’s nit-picking isn’t it? 

So much for reading the tea leaves in the FOMC Meeting Minutes last week, that pretty much said, “no, we’re waiting to cut rates”… And that thought had the dollar bugs dancing in the street, and the BBDXY rose to 1,210…  And then Powell, pulled the punchbowl back from the crowd,  and the dollar bugs were dancing no longer…

The dollar began immediately to get sold, and by 11 a.m. The BBDXY had given back 9 index points! And Gold had turned around a negative start to its morning, and was punishing the dollar and taking names later… Gold gained $33 on Friday, and ended the week at $3,373… Silver was also into punishing the dollar and taking names later as it gained $69-cents, and closed the week at $38.95…

The BBDXY ended up Friday, down 9 index points to 1,201, so after the initial knee-jerk reaction to sell dollars, there was no follow-through on Friday… I think the dollar traders thought that they had done enough for one day and so they closed their books and handed them over to Asia for the follow-through…  

The Oil traders were oblivious to the goings on with the Jackson Hole shindig and kept the price of oil trading with a $63 handle to end the week.  And, as you can imagine, the bond boys began to buy bonds once again, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury’s yield came down to end the week at 4.26%… 

Well, that was some kind of reaction to the words, ” conditions may warrant rate cuts”, eh?   I mean he could  have given us more, like when it’s going to warrant the rate cuts, because in his heart of hearts, he knows!  The markets, and rightly so in my mind, took his words to mean at the very next FOMC meeting on Sept 17th…  And with inflation rising… This all spells disaster in my mind… And I know that history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but history always does  seem to be at the scene of the crime, eh?

In the early 1970’s Arthur Burns was the Fed/ Cabal/Cartel chairman, and he decided to cut rates, with the inflation rate on the rise, thinking that inflation would come back down… But, with the Oil embargo causing the price of Oil to spike, and other things going on, inflation didn’t come back, and instead it started rising, and didn’t stop rising until Paul Volcker put an end to it in 1980-81… Almost a decade of high inflation really took its toll on Middle America…  And Gold went to the moon, at that time that is. Should we expect the same kind of reaction in Gold this time? I would bet your bottom dollar it would! 

I bet that most of you couldn’t tell who the Fed Heads Chairman was in the early 70’s…  That’s because before Big Al Greenspan The Fed Heads were unknown to most of Americans, because they weren’t that important… I’m just saying… I only know because my longtime good friend and former boss, Frank Trotter told me that story years ago! 

Circling back to Gold for a minute… It was quite apparent that the short paper traders weren’t going to let Gold & Silver have a long runway… The SPT’s were in the markets doing damage control all day, and that kept Gold & Silver from gaining more on Friday…  The total of shorts that Ed Steer posts in his Saturday letter each and every week, show that the shorts in Silver are going down. Gold a little less, but still, that’s progress… Still not of the numbers that make sense but progress nonetheless… you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldandsilver.com  

No Data Cupboard today, it’s Sunday! But, I can tell you that on Tuesday we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods… And then on Thursday we’ll see the first revision to the 2^nd QTR GDP, and on Friday we’ll see Personal Income and Spending for July, along with the July PCE (supposedly the Fed Head’s favorite inflation calculator…  And could very well be the key indicator of when the next rate cut will come…  I suspect the PCE will be benign and leave us with more questions than we had going into the print… 

For What It’s Worth… This will be something different in its delivery to you, but why not, it’s a Sunday Pfennig!  The Good Folks at Gata sent this to me, and its a YOUTUBE about the end of the SPT’s and can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EF4H8X5Fik

Or, here’s your snippet: “London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program at YouTube, says major participants in the gold market no longer consider the New York Commodities Exchange and the London Bullion Market Association dependable for delivering real metal and are taking their business to Asian exchanges where delivery is quick.

Maguire adds that governments have begun to consider treating silver as a sovereign reserve asset like gold.

He believes that “paper” gold will be finished when the December gold futures contract closes at the end of November and U.S. bullion banks become obliged to comply with Basel III rules and stop selling metal they don’t have.”

Chuck Again… I guess this will depend on whether the Bullion Banks follow the rules, or if they find a way around them… 

Friday’s major markets prices: Gold $3,373, Silver $38.95, BBDXY 1.201, Oil $63.66 and the 10-year 4.26%

That’s it for today… I’m still not steady with my stomach and digestive system, the last infusion really did a number on me!  Or, maybe it was an accumulation of all the infusions that I’ve had since I started them on Dec 30th… But, I’ll have a long discussion about this with my oncologist when I see her next on Sept. 11th… I can’t stand this feeling, but I’ve been in worse condition during my 18-year journey through Cancer…  I guess to have stomach problems and being alive is better than not having them and not being alive! The Rascals takes us to the finish line today with their hit 60’s song: Beautiful Morning…   It’s kind of cloudy out right now, so I can’t agree with them today… HA!  I hope you have a Super Sunday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• FMOC minutes show most Fed Heads fear inflation….
• Gold & Silver recover from Tuesday’s SPT event…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my eye doctor said I have a good strong eye now, so I have that going for me!  He did tell me again that he is worried about me not wearing plain glasses to protect my good eye… I’ll think about it…  I[m getting used to wearing them only when I read, which is a lot any way! My beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Marlins and now move north to Tampa Bay… Yesterday, was my darling daughter, Dawn’s Birthday… I still remember the night and early morning when she was born… She had a full head of black hair, that by age one had changed to blonde… Happy Birthday, Boo!  One of my fave Uriah Heep’s songs greets me this morning… Stealin’

Well, another day closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, didn’t change much from the day before when the markets failed to move much… The FOMC meeting Minutes printed from their last meeting, and they reflected the opinion of the FOMXC Committee members that inflation is still a problem and that it’s most likely to get worse, and that the Ma and Pa’s are going to feel the brunt of the hurt from inflation.. 

Does that sound like a Committee that’s ready to cut rates?  Not to me… But then the Committee members are feeling tons of pressure from the POTUS to cut rates… Wait! Isn’t the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel supposed to be independent? Don’t tell Janet Yellen that, because late in Trump’s first campaign, she hike rates for no apparent reason, other than to get the new president off on bad foot…  I’m just saying… 

OK, well, because some of the traders out there still have some gray matter, and come around to my way of thinking every now and then, they took the FOMC’s notes and said, ” no rate cut, yet”…  And that helped the dollar bugs and the BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day to end the day at 1,206…  Now, I’m saying that there will be no rate cut next month, what I am saying the idea of a rate cut is more questionable now… 

Gold recovered from the engineered takedown the SPT’s gave it on Tuesday, when it was down $17, and came back strong by gaining $32 yesterday to close at $3,346. Silver had a tough time on Tuesday too, losing 65-cents, but gained most of it back yesterday, gaining 53-cents to close at $37.85

The price of Oil ended the day with a $63 handle… And the 10-year Treasury Bond saw some buying (from whom? I can only guess who!) and the yield ended the day at 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Minutes causing dollar buying carried over to the overnight markets last night, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points this morning at 1,208… OK, this is when, in the past, the Fed Heads would “surprise” the markets, and then sit back at the Eccles Bldg. And laugh HAHAHAHAHA! So, this could be the trap the Fed Heads are setting… That everyone gives up the ghost on a rate cut next month, but the Fed Heads surprise the markets with one! 

I wouldn’t put it past them to do that… I doubt they will though… I’m just saying… 

Gold is seeing some selling this morning is down $7 to start the day, while Silver is up 4-cents…  I would be nice to see a more than one day and done rally for the metals, now wouldn’t it?  The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield didn’t move and starts today at 4.30%

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates yesterday, to 3.0%… Their statement centered around how while inflation is  still in the 2-3% range, their models have inflation lowering toward 2%, So, they went ahead and cut rates now…  I think they will rue the day that jumped the gun… I’m just saying… And the markets are thinking correctly as they sold kiwi after the RBNZ debased the currency…

And remember when I said that the Bank of England (BOE) would rue the day that they jumped the gun and cut rates too soon, that inflation would come back to bite them in the rear? Well check this out; “inflation rose to 3.8% in the year to July, the highest since January 2024, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.”  Just show to go you, that these Central Banks would be far better off if they just read the Pfennig and listened to me! HA! 

Circling back to the U.S. and good and longtime reader of mine, sent me this note: ” In 2014 $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.

In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year. 

Chuck Again.. now add that  to the new debt that will be issued this year, and we’ve probably get to a number that’s bone chilling!”

And at a much higher rate than what they issued at that’s for sure! It’s time for the U.S. Gov’t/ Treasury, revaluate Gold, eh?  IF the U.S. really does hold over 8,000 Tons of physical Gold, do you think that revaluing it would make a dent in our debt?  Only if the revalue price is something out of this world! In, fact if they revalued Gold to $5,000 oz… That would only pay for one’s years debt servicing!  Insane, right? 

Remember when I told you that 1 Trillion years ago, puts us Before Christ was born? And now we have $37 Trillion in debt…  Think about that and tell me how we get out of this mess?  Default? Well, we would have go all-in on the default and start all over again, and hopefully there’s still someone in the world that would take our new debt… 

You may also recall me telling that James Rickards told us about the $150 Trillion Birthright, right? This is what the minerals are worth that are still in the ground on Federal Land… There’s a whole story on the Birthright thing, I suggest you Google it and find out more, but I’m here to tell you that IF all goes well, we won’t begin to see these gains for years… And also let me tell you that none of that $150 Trillion will make it your mailbox in the form of a check….   

OK, fair and balanced … I told you one way we default and one way we dig ourselves out of this debt mess…. Go ahead and hang your hat on one, and then make your investment decisions on whichever you take….  but for me… Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Leading Indicators for July today… This data set has been negative for so long now that the Dead Seas wasn’t even sick yet, when it started! And then Tomorrow is the BIG DAY! Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman Jerome Powell will give is keynote presentation at the Jackson Hole Shindig..  It will interesting if he gives any indication that he read the FOMC minutes, or what his direction will lead to…   

To recap… The FOMC Meeting Minutes really threw a spanner in the works yesterday, and caused the dollar bugs to buy dollars, and the Bond Boys to buy bonds… Chuck has some interesting things to think about in today’s Pfennig, something for you to chew on all weekend! 

For What It’s Worth… Recall that I keep saying that U.S. Companies are going to go belly up? Well, this article puts some ammo in my gun so to speak… This about how many Companies have gone belly up so far this year and it can be found here: US corporate bankruptcies soar, cross 2020 pandemic levels with 71 filings in a month: Report – US News | The Financial Express

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The US economy has been hit by a fresh wave of bankruptcy filings, which has surged to their highest level since 2020 Covid-19 pandemic, when similar situations were seen across the country. A report in Business Insider mentioned that several popular brands of 1990s and 2000s brands were among the companies that have filed for bankruptcy, continuing a trend that lays open the status of the United States’ economy.

Data from S&P 500 Global showed that this summer, the number of filing for US corporate bankruptcy surpassed the level of 2020, the Business Insider report mentioned. A total of 71 public and private companies filed for bankruptcy last month, which is 8 more than June when 63 companies had filed for bankruptcy.

Which companies have filed for bankruptcy?

According to the report, the companies include some beloved brands like Forever 21 and Joann. Many other famous retailers are forced to shut their stores to reduce physical footprint amid loss. While the US stock market has been standing tall to any economic upheaval with 3% economic growth in the second quarter, some experts said July is rather stressful, the report mentioned.

Focus on 30 export markets to intensify amid impending slump in shipments to US

“Companies are contending with elevated interest rates as uncertainty from US tariff policy pressures costs and supply chain resilience,” S&P 500 Global said, Insider quoted.

Companies like Canned goods producer Del Monte Foods filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as they witnessed reduced demand and high inventory costs. Their leadership reportedly also cited a heavy debt burden. Last month, a Business Insider report had claimed that Del Monte had combined debts of between $1 billion and $10 billion.”

Chuck again… And they blame it on high interest rates, while I don’t argue that the aren’t helping, IF you consider 4.25% a high interest rate!  Not a word about how these companies borrowed BIG TIME at low interest rates, and now have to roll over the loans to higher interest rates… Nah, that would be telling the truth, and not lies… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 8/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6524, kiwi .5823, C$ .7239, euro 1.1629, sterling 1.3461, Swiss  $1.2403, European Style: rand 17.6110, krone 10.1760, SEK 9.5912, forint 340.08, zloty 3.6528, koruna 21.0705, RUB 80.57, yen 147.81, sing 1.2872, HKD 7.8130, INR 87.26, China 7.1784, peso 18.75, BRL 5.4290, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.36, Oil $63.18, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $37.89, Platinum $1,337.00, Palladium $1,123.00, Copper $4.50, and Gold… 3,339

That’s it for today… There will be no Pfennig on Monday next week, as I have a doctor’s appt many miles from here. He is my lungs doctor, just a follow up to make sure I continued my recovery…  And next week we close out August… I’m not going to attempt to have my traditional Butler Family Labor Day BBQ, this year… I’m just not ready for that yet… The College Football Season begins this weekend. YAHOO! I cooked me a thick steak on the Brownstone last night, and then couldn’t eat it, my stomach revolted on me! UGH! Steak and eggs this morning? Now that sounds good, C’Mon stomach play along with me here! The Beach Boys takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Gold Only Knows…  One of the best Beach Boys songs in their list of hit songs… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Monday…
• Dastardly SPT’s, doing dastardly things…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Day today for you!  Another day of distress for my digestive system, I hope it ends soon, for I don’t want to have to stop withe the medicine they are infusing in me… In 2018, I was on a chemo medicine that made my stomach so awful they had to take me off the medicine… The doctors soon found another chemo for me, and since then I haven’t had major stomach problems that last long… until now… UGH!  My beloved Cardinals beat the Marlins in Miami last night, now if only they could build on that victory and get another the next night, and the next night, etc   In 2011, the Cardinals were 10.5 games out of a playoff spot in late August.  And ended up qualifying for the Playoffs! They achieved this remarkable feat with a 23-9 record to close out the season…. Hey! Stranger things have happened, which a true fan sticks with the hope…. Booker T and the M.G.’s greet me this morning with their song: Green Onions…

Well, in our world of opposites the dollar rallied yesterday, on the thought that the next rate cut would be announced as coming from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole shindig that is coming this week… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,205… A memo to the dollar traders… When a country debases their currency with rate cuts you are supposed to sell the currency… I just don’t get it… Back in the day when I was I was first learning the ropes to currency trading, this is what I learned… Debase the currency, the currency suffers… End of story… But in this day of sentiment ruling currency traders direction instead of fundamentals, we get this opposite behavior… 

Gold and Silver on the other hand should rallly when rates get cut… And they got sold yesterday, with Gold selling down $12 and Silver lost 31-cents…  what will it take to return to fundamentals? God only knows (Beach Boys) Gold held steady for a good part of the day yesterday, until the short paper traders entered the market… Again! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield ended the day with a 4.33% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… There wasn’t any movement from the dollar bugs overnight, the BBDXY is still at 1,205 this morning as we start our day…  I think the markets are for lack of a better description, holding their breaths, ahead of the Jackson Hole shindig… So, there’s that… Gold, this morning is up $7 to start our day, and Silver is up 14-cents… But when you look back to yesterday, Gold & Silver were up early, before the short paper traders arrived, and plotted their dastardly design to take down the metals… Who knows where Gold & Silver would have ended the day had the short paper traders had a flat tire on the way to work and didn’t show up! I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slid bac to the $52 handle overnight… A very tight range… And the 10-year Treasury is stating the day with a 4.32% yield…  I just don’t see much movement in the markets the next couple of days with the Jackson Hole shindig on the horizon… 

I really went long an tough on the U.S. and its debt yesterday, eh? Well, someone should take the  lawmakers and Central Bank to the wood shed  besides me… But here I am all by myself ( Eric Carmen). I need Lola, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and other big banks to diss the U.S. and the debt for anything to get take hold.. But that won’t happen because they’d get taken to the woodshed by the POTUS…

I have something for you in the FWIW section today, that’s not a widely used indicator, but I think it should be heard… and so I let them opine here! 

And there will be no Pfennig tomorrow for I have to be at the eye doctor early… It’s just a check-up from my cataract surgery… no biggie… So, mark your calendars… 

With the markets holding their breath… There’s not a lot to talk about that I haven’t already beaten like an old rug… 

There is a report that mining companies are looking to go back to the Black Hills of S. Dakota again… There was a gold rush there 150 or so years ago, and the native Indians were displaced… So, the mining cos. Are not being welcomed back with open arms… With Gold prices over $3,000 oz, you can see why the mining cos are wanting to come back… Well, please don’t disrupt the natural beauty of the area!  

You know when I was a youngster I used to read about stuff from the 1800’s and think that it really wasn’t that long ago, but now… That’s eons from now!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard has two housing prints, and two Fed Heads our speaking…  I told you yesterday that the Data Cupboard was a non-event this week… So, we’re stuck with all distractions that the Gov’t keeps throwing up to get out minds off how bad things are… The Cost of Living is rising…  The debt is unsustainable… And Companies will be soon coming to grips with fact that they can’t continue… UGH!

To recap… The dollar got bought yesterday, because we’re growing closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, and the markets are thinking that Jerome Powell’s keynote speech will tell them ahead of the meeting in Sept, what the Fed is going to do, and that’s cut rates…  Chuck explains how that thought process is backward, but we are living in an age of opposites! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, a pre-sold this article above and now it’s time to deliver the goods, and they can be found here: Cardboard Box Sales Fall in Worrying Sign for US Retail – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet; ‘Analysts and investors will scour Friday’s retail sales report for a readout on how US households are feeling about the economy. Those watching the cardboard box industry say they already have an idea.

A nontraditional economic indicator, sales of the corrugated cardboard used to make the boxes that transport everything from doughnuts to dishwashers are slumping, signaling that retail demand across industries may be due for its own correction in the not-too-distant future.

US box shipments—that is, volumes of empty packaging materials sold to retailers, which in turn use them to ship orders to warehouses, storefronts and Americans’ doorsteps—fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association, a trade group. (Corrugated cardboard also goes into other items, such as 3D advertising displays, but since the vast majority is used for packaging, the industry tends to use “box shipments” and “corrugated cardboard shipments” interchangeably.)

Memphis-based International Paper Co., one of the world’s largest pulp and paper companies, reported a 5% drop in daily US box shipments in the quarter from the same period a year ago, while packaging giant Smurfit Westrock Plc, based in Dublin, saw a 4.5% slide in North American corrugated cardboard volumes, the biggest drop across all of the regions it operates. “If volume picked up in the United States, that would give us more confidence, but we haven’t seen that yet,” Chief Executive Officer Anthony Smurfit said on a recent earnings call.

The strength of the highly seasonal cardboard box industry isn’t necessarily a one-to-one proxy for retail spending, but—like beauty-shop outlays or consumer sentiment—it can flash early signals when things start to go amiss. And because boxes aren’t usually ordered that far in advance, they can offer a nearly real-time indicator of buying and manufacturing activity.”

Chuck Again…Well, that was different, eh? Only time will tell if it was a true indicator, of which I do believe It is… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 8/19/2025: American Style: A$ .6490, kiwi .5921, C$ .7239, euro 1.1681, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2413, European Style: rand 17.6243, krone 10.2081, SEK 9.5439, forint 337.04, zloty 3.6347, koruna 20.9431, RUB 80.79, yen 147.76, sing 1.2831, HKD 7.8020, INR 86.95, China 7.1793, peso 18.78, BRL 5.4363, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.03, Oil $ 62.62, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.11, Platinum $1,351.00. Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,341

That’s it for today…Well, I ran some errands yesterday, without any stomach problems, so that was good, but as soon as I arrived home, they began… UGH! The kids around here are back to school… So be careful out there!  The Brewers finally lost! After 14 consecutive wins… And then the next day they started another winning streak VS the Cubs… They are THE team this year… I was so upset with Amazon… On 8/15 I ordered a book, and the next day they told me it wouldn’t arrive here until 8/23! UGH! When you can’t depend on next day delivery any longer, you know that the economy is showing strains… Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: 25 or 6 to 4… The first time I heard this song and the the guitar playing of Terry Kath, I was blown away!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Friday, but get sold overnight last night
• That old Debt….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my fumbling, stumbling, beloved Cardinals found a way to blow leads in the final two games of the series with the Yankees, and got swept! There’s not a lot in the way of data this week, so we’ll be subjected to the Gov’t’s attempt to divert our attention away from the problems… Look, there, I already started today with the attack… I’m still feeling the effects of my infusion last Thursday… I normally get over them in one day, but this time it has held onto me for 4 days… UGH!   J.D Southern greets me this morning with his song; You’re Only Lonely

And that’s exactly how I felt when I had no “Tech” person to handle my problems last week… This working as a lone wolf has its benefits, but not having someone to go to when I have problems is not one of them!  Oh well, que sera, sera… 

The U.S. dollar ran into some selling on Friday, and the BBDXY was lowered by 3 index points, to 1,202… The dollar had a brief rally on Thursday last week that took the BBDXY to 1,205, and that rally came about because the PPI (wholesale inflation) leapt higher to  gain .9% in July… Now, we all know that PPI leads to higher CPI (consumer inflation) and that would be another chip for the rate cut bugs… Opposite of what should happen when a country debases their currency, right? But we live in this era of opposites, so that’s that! 

Gold is in the summer swoon, and investors will come back in September, but for now Gold has to be strong and resilient to maintain its value… And on Thursday last week Gold lost $21 and Silver lost 60-cents…  And on Friday, Gold tried like the dickens to gain ground but was snuffed out by the short paper traders every time it mounted a charge, and ended the day down 30-cents… So, flat if you will.. And Silver did the same as Gold and was down a plug nickel… yes, 5-cents…  

Speaking of Gold… this from Goldmoney.com “A stand-out feature was the scale of stand-for-deliveries in the Comex gold contract, at 90.6 Tonnes from 31 July so far, reflecting the expiry of the August contract. 267.5 Tonnes of silver were also stood for delivery. To put these numbers in context, 861 Tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery since 1 January.”

In my mind, this is a very good sign for Gold (& Silver), as it means that more investors are taking deliver, of physical Gold!  

The price of Oil bumped higher for the first time in over 10 days,  on Thursday and then gave it back on Friday, to end the week with a $62 handle…  And the 10-year continued to see buyers until it didn’t… And it didn’t on Thursday after the PPI  printed, and the bond boys got spooked… The 10-year ended the week with a 4.32% yield…  Now that was quite the turnaround wasn’t it? I had reported that the 10-year’s yield was 4.20% on Thursday morning… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was bought by a bit, with the BBDXY rising 2 index points, and we start the day/ week at 1,204… Gold is firmer this morning, gaining $12 to start the day/ week, and Silver is up 11-cents. I think the markets will be subdued this week as everyone is looking toward the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium starts on Thursday…  But then, what do I know? A lot, thank you! HA!  

The price of Oil has bumped higher overnight and starts our day/ week with a $63 handle… There’s an Oil glut right now according to our friends (NOT!) at OPEC… So, that should keep the price of Oil trading in a tight range… And the bond boys are keeping the selling going in the 10-year Treasury, as the yield of the bond rose to 4.32% where it starts the day/week. 

I have an old friend, not saying he’s old, just our acquaintance is old… Dan Denning is his name and he writes for Bonner Privat Research group… that consists of Bill Bonner, Dan Denning and Tom Dyson. They put out tremendous stuff about investing and the data behind it…Their subscription costs, so if you interested, click the link below… Every week, Dan Denning sends me his letter… I hope he doesn’t mind me borrowing a line or two from his letter: 

 And further, that Americans are more tied to stocks in their 401k’s than ever before…  And this plays well with my thought on the season of opposites going on.. Here’s Dan, ” investors poo poohing 2.7% annualized CPI numbers–and bidding up stocks even higher–is another example of the kind of self-deception that’s only possible at the end of a cycle. So is is believing both higher than normal CPI and PPI readings mean the Fed could cut 50 or 100 basis points when it meets next month. Madness. Hallucinations.”

Chuck again…  To me, that’s all very scary… Hy Minsky called what will eventually happen, a Minsky Moment..  And speaking of something scary… It was reported last week that investors in their late 30’s have 88% of their 401k’s in stocks… 

I know, I know this is a currency, metals, economies, and dolts, letter, not a stock letter… But there’s something strange going on that reminds me of the dot-com bubble.. During that bubble’s rise, there was Cisco leading the way… Just like the AI bubble that’s now building… It’s leader, will be sorted out in time, but my guess would be that it’s there right now… I’m not naming names, because that could get me in trouble… But I know you can guess who it is… 

Ok… back to regimen!  

Last week I talked about how the U.S. Current Debt has surpassed $37 Trillion…  I’ve been banging the drum to reduce our debt for decades now… And not once have out lawmakers taken that thought to heart, and cut expenditures… Here’s where the cheese comes to bind folks.. We, as a country cannot pay down our debt, so when the financing tool for the debt comes due, we simply roll it for a new term… At a much higher rate than the original debt was held…  Are you getting what I’m telling you? This cannot go on forever, in fact, I doubt it can go on past another 5 years, but then, that’s just me… And to me, this alone is NO REASON to hold U.S. dollars, except for gas, groceries and giggles… 

My favorite read, Grant Williams’ Things That Make You Go Hmmm… featured the U.K and France’s debt problem they are in… So, it’s not just the U.S. with this debt problem…  But, we live here and work here and have fun here, and for that we’ll get to pay for the tariffs that have been implemented, and we’ll also get to deal with higher inflation, and Companies going belly up, thus putting lots of people out of jobs… Oh Boy! Can I have another helping of this? NOT!

Are you willing to have your 401K’s denominated in nothing but Treasuries? Because that’s what it is going to come to, as countries around the world balk at buying Treasuries and there’s nowhere else for Treasuries to go, except your 401K… I’m just saying… 

I know, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning… NOT! I can’t stop on the subject once I get going on debt…  

But the word is out… The U.S. isn’t going to cut expenditures, nor is it going to even attempt to do so… And for that reason alone, the FOMC is left with no choice but to cut rates to lessen the weight on the U.S. finances, but that will invite inflation back to the table, as it has been sent to the kids’ table for a while… 

And will it hurt everyone? No… only you, me and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off… The regular Joes are the ones that will feel the effects of the rising inflation…  And no, I’m not one of those that believe the Rich could pay off our debt…  There’s no way that could even come close, but what I do believe we could do is to raise their taxes to a rate that closer to the one we pay, 25-30%, that increase alone would help pay for some of the line items in the budget… 

Got Gold?  I know that owning Gold can be frustrating at times as the short paper traders take their pound of flesh… But much like the toaster oven the chef is on TV hawking, set it and forget it… Buy Gold and forget you have it if you get antsy about selling it when it looks bleak…. And when Battle Bank gets the wink and nod from the regulators to open, they will allow Gold in IRA’s… So, get ready to transfer your IRA to them, because that’s a great idea! 

There’s not much going on in the world these days, with regard to monetary policy, so we’ll just move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for…But the Jackson Hole shindig will hold the key this week… with the chief jefe speaking, the markets will want signs that he’s going to cut rates at the next meeting… If he fails to deliver, the markets will genuflect and react negatively… Who knows which way the sentiment will fall with the dollar at that point… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday last week had some surprising data for us… First up was the July Retail Sales, which I had told you last week that the BHI indicated that it would be good… And it was, rising .5%…  Apparently to back to school purchasing was off the record!  Industrial Production for July was negative -.1%… I have something for you on Industrial Production in the FWIW section today, so stay turned!.. And Capacity Utilization slipped lower again to 77.5%…  And finally on Friday, the STUPID Consumer Sentiment for August (prelim) fell from 62.5 to 57.2… Maybe, just maybe more people are waking up and smelling the coffee?

This week’s Data Cupboard will be an exercise in nothingness…  We’ll see the FOMC meeting minutes from the last meeting… The only thing to look for here is how many dissenters were there to keeping rates unchanged… We should keep track of their names so we can tar and feather them when rates are lowered and inflation comes back with a vengeance! 

August 21-23… mark your calendars! The 2025 Jackson Hole meeting will take place and the Fed/ Cabal Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell will give the keynote address… This is the meeting that Quantitative Easing was first announced to the public years ago… So, we could look for fireworks, or a packet of lies… take your pick, both won’t be good for the economy… I’m just saying

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, but rallied overnight to get some of the loss back, we start the day/ week at 1,204 in the BBDXY… Gold is in the summer swoon, so any gains it musters is icing on the cake.. This has happened with Gold about every summer I can recall… And then Chuck goes bananas on the Debt… He goes on and on and on about it, so if you skipped it you might want to go back and see what bee got into his bonnet!

For What It’s Worth… Well, thanks to Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, I found this article about Industrial Production…  We DO have to make stuff that people use, right? Anyway, you can find the article here: America Don’t Need No “Independent” Fed

Or, here’s your snippet: “Talk about hiding in plain sight. Here is possibly the most important graph ever about the flagging state of the US economy and the utter failure of Washington’s constant efforts during the last two decades to “stimulate” improved outcomes.

To wit, the US industrial production index—which measures the sum of manufacturing, energy, mining, and utility output—marched straight uphill at a 3.3% annual rate between 1954 and 2007. Yet since then it has essentially plateaued, rising by just 0.10% per annum during the past 17 years.

That’s right. The growth rate of America’s industrial foundation has plunged by 97% since the pre-crisis peak in Q4 2007. And yet June’s industrial production index, which was up a small tad, gets headlined as a sign of economic strength. In fact, the longer-term chart below screams the very opposite.

After all, there is no logic that says an economy can remain healthy and prosperous that is increasingly based on educating a shrinking number of kids, feeding an expanding national waistline at fast food joints, and changing adult diapers among the soaring share of the population composed of octogenarians. At the end of the day, you actually have to make things in order for the population to pay for taking in each other’s laundry.

As it has happened, however, during the 48 months since June 2021 the industrial production index has been negative or flat nearly half the time on a month-over-month basis. For all practical purposes, the US industrial economy is just playing “mother may I”, advancing one step forward and the next step backwards month after month. And if that’s “strong” or even a sign of anything except decaying performance, we’d suggest the English language has lost all meaning.

As it happens, the disconnect becomes even more dramatic when you compare the production of goods since Q4 2007 with the constant dollar value of goods consumption (PCE) during the same period. That is to say, cumulative real consumption of goods (durable and non-durable) rose by 62% but domestic industrial output was up by only 1.4%!

To reprise, industrial production growth has essentially ground to a halt at 0.1% per year since 2007, notwithstanding a 13.3% per annum expansion of Fed credit. Self-evidently, all that high-powered central bank money was going somewhere, but clearly it was not into the production of goods on Main Street.”

Chuck again, yes , David Stockman has hit the nail on the head here… And as he says early on in the article, you should check out the graph of industrial production… I’m just saying… And as David says in the article, if this is what you call “strong” then we have to change the meaning of the world in the dictionary! 

Market Prices 8/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6511,  kiwi .5936, C$ .7252, euro 1.1675, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $ 1.2386, European Style: rand 17.61, krone 10.1804, SEK 9.5579, forint 338.81, zloty 3.6404, koruna 20.9591, RUB 80.49, yen 147.55, sing 1.2828, HKD 7.8177, INR 87.34, China 7.1790, peso 18.81, BRL 5.4299, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.00, Oil $63.50, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,335.00, Palladium $1,121.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,346

That’s it for today… I think the months of receiving the infusions are finally getting to me… Ever since last Thursday, I’ve slept a lot, and my stomach hasn’t stopped gurgling… My digestive system is shot! Shoot Rudy, I couldn’t even go to the local watering hole on Friday to meet my friends! UGH! Saturday, I manned up, and cooked some smashed burgers on the Brownstone for my darling granddaughter’s family birthday celebration… I had to cede to my oldest son, Andrew to finish for me as the heat finally got to me… What a wimp I was! I used to be able to stand at the grill in any kind of heat, because I loved doing it… But the 18 years of chemo have made me a wimp… UGH! My favorite guitarist, Carlos Santana, takes us to the finish line today with his song: Europa (Earth’s Cry, Heaven’s Smile) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies get sold on Wednesday…
• We have a new minister of lies for the BLS

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I know, I know, I told you there would be no Pennig on Thursday, but after a review of my schedule, I determined that I could get “something” to you today before I have to leave for the hospital for my infusion… The Cardinals found yet another way, to lose a game yesterday… Tsk, Tsk…  I sat outside to read yesterday, but had to have the umbrella up to provide shade as it was a hot one! I had to say to myself, of course it’s hot Chuck, it’s August in St. Louis! Gerry & The Pacemakers greet me this morning with their song: Ferry Cross The Mersey… Whenever that song comes on, my mind goes back to when son Alex was just a toddler, and I would rock him to sleep every night, while singing that song to him… 

Well, the dollar gained back the 2 index points it had lost in the overnight markets on Tuesday… So, Wednesday in the U.S. Session, the dollar was bought by a bit, not a lot, but by a bit… When I checked it last night, it has lost those 2 index points already.  Gold continued to come back from it last takedown by the short paper traders, and gained $3 yesterday to close at $ 3,357… Silver also continues to gain back lost ground last week, by gaining 16-cets to close at $38,57… The good witch, Glinda came out and told everyone to come out now that the Big Bad short paper traders have left…. for now… 

The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle for the day, while the 10-year treasury’s yield dropped some more ending the day with a 4.23%

You know, all this talk of rate cuts, and the dropping 10-year’s yield, is helping Gold as we go along here… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar didn’t move and stayed in the 1,201 handle of the BBDXY all night. So we start the day today at 1,201…  Gold is Seeing some selling this morning and is down $2 to start the day, while Silver is seeing some heavier selling and is down 39-cents to start the day…  The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle all night.. And the 10-year Treasury saw some more buying, which lowers the yield and it stats today with a 4.20% yield… 

Well, looky here… The U.S.  Debt crossed over to $37 Trillion in the past couple of days… A dear reader sent me a note about the $37 Trillion debt, and I thought to myself, ‘it was only a matter of when not if, it would reach $37 Trillion.. 

That means that we, as a country have added $1 Trillion to our debt in the last 5 months, and that’s how long it took to get to $36 Trillion too, just 5 months! It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger as it goes… 

I also saw that the monthly debt was HUGE… The U.S. Treasury reported that the Federal spending totaled $629.6 billion in July — 9.7% higher than July of last year.

Meanwhile, revenue totaled $338.5 billion — up only 2.5% from a year earlier despite a 290% leap in tariff revenue.

The result was a monthly deficit of $291.1 billion — up from $243.7

Thanks for the info from Dave Gonigam at the Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets… 

So, the monthly numbers just keep getting larger… That’s going the wrong way as far as I’m concerned… We, as a country, should be looking for way to cut spending, and not for ways to spend more!  The debt servicing on the growing debt is going to choke us…  I’m just saying…

And speaking of interest rate cuts, Bloomerg.com had this from the U.S. Treasury, “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to execute a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the central bank’s benchmark ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now.

“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” Bessent said in a television interview on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday. “If you look at any model” it suggests that “we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.”

Chuck again… I don’t know what “model” he’s using, but it sure isn’t the one that I use, which tells me that you don’t cut rates when inflation is still a problem and most likely to become an even bigger problem…

Did you see the nominated head of the BLS? He wants to change the reporting on jobs from monthly to quarterly…  I just have one question for him on that, is that so the BLS has more time to cook the books?  he also went on to admit that the current jobs reports are a mess….   Well, when you tell a lie, you then have to repeat it often, and embelish it quite a bit too!  And the BLS has been a pack of lies for a very long time! And never before where their collective feet held to the fire, until now… But this guy isn’t going to ride in on a white horse, and make the jobs reports better… In fact since he’s one of the POTUS’s pals, the reports will probably be even larger lies!  I’m just saying…

And in a heart felt mea culpa… on Monday I reported in the currency roundup that the Swiss franc was 1.03 something… I even had a dear reader question the price, but I responded to him that I had taken it from the Bloomberg currency prices page, so it must be right…  Only to find the next day it was back to 1.24 something… So, Bloomberg must have had it wrong, and I swallowed it hook, line and sinker… Well, that won’t happen again! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was barren, with just some Fed Heads speaking… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for a Thursday, and that’s about it for today. Tomorrow we’ll see the July Retail Sales print… The BHI indicates that it will be better than the average Bear… And then Capacity Utiliazation, and Industrial Production for July will also print tomorrow…

To recap… The dollar staged a mini-rally yesterday in the U.S. after getting sold overseas the previous night.  All this talk of rate cuts, is really underpinning Gold right now… And then you add In the fact that bond yields are dropping…  That too, helps Gold…  Well, it was a matter of when not if, we passed by $37 Trillion in debt… And our monthly budgets are faring too well either!  And finally, Scott Bessent calls for 150 Basis Points of rate cuts!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article last night while perusing the internet. It’s about how the POTUS really came unglued when Lola, I mean Goldman Sachs had this to say about tariffs. And it can be found here: As Trump berates Goldman, economists agree higher tariff inflation coming

Or, here’s your snippet: “Goldman Sachs is taking the heat for its call that heavier tariff-induced consumer inflation is ahead, but it’s far from alone in that view among its Wall Street brethren.

Despite investors’ embrace of Tuesday’s fairly benign consumer price index report, economists expect that the biggest impact to inflation is yet to come.

With pre-tariff inventories rolling off, effective tariff rates climbing higher and companies less willing to absorb higher costs from the duties, the general feeling is that consumers are increasingly going to feel the bite through the rest of the year.

“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty around the degree of pass-through to consumer prices, given that this year’s tariff increases are well larger than anything in the post-war US experience.”

Chuck Again…  and THAT is the reason the FOMC has kept interest rates steady Eddie…   For they too know what the tariffs are going to do… 

Market Prices 8/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .5949, C$ .7245, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $ 1.2417, European Style: rand 17.77, krone 10.1689, SEK 9.5630, forint 337.84, zloty 3.6432, koruna 20.9318, RUB 79.65, yen 146.64, sing 1.2517, HKD 7.8426, INR 87.55, China 7.1704, peso 18.68, BRL 5.3976, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $62.93, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $38.18, Platinum $1,361.00, Palladium $1,156.00, Copper $4.54, and Gold… $3.355

That’s it for today… Well, the mighty Yankees come to town tomorrow night for a weekend series with my beloved Cardinals… Both teams have really struggled since we turned the calendar to July… I want to apologize for all the typos in yesterday’s Pfennig… I usually try to scan it over before sending it out, but not yesterday, and then when I did scan it, all the typos showed up like a credit card bill after a spending spree! Tomorrow is 8/15… That was the day each year that we began summer football practices… 2 practices a day… Sometimes we wouldn’t even go home between the practices, and would take naps on the bleachers! Ahhhh…. those were the days! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with a song from my favorite album Seventh Sojourn: Isn’t Life Strange… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler