Author: admin

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• The RBA is reconsidering their rate cuts…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I woke up yesterday to weakness in my right leg and then pain when I walked… OH NO! I said to myself, as this is how 7 years ago, I ended up with infection around the titanium prosthesis that I have for my hip and partially of my femur… It required me having surgery on the leg to get the infection out, and then weeks of antibiotics every 4 hours… And learning to walk again, without the walker…  I even called my orthopedist and booked an appt for today to get the process going. But then as the day went on, the pain went away, and the weakness was gone! YIPPEE!  I don’t know what was going on there, but I’m just happier than a lark that it isn’t a recurrence of the infection of 7 years ago! A-ha greets me this morning with their great 80’s song: Take Me On

For the life of me I can’t imagine how that singer got his voice so high… But that question doesn’t keep me up at night, so I move on… 

The dollar, which had seen some selling the previous night, got bought yesterday and ended up 1 index point to 1,226…  Gold & Silver had banner days, as the thought of a FOMC rate cut is back on the board, really lit a fire under the metals… Gold gained $70 to end the day at $4,136, and Silver gained $1.36 to end the day at $51.42

The price of Oil regained a buck yesterday and ended the day trading with a $58 handle. And more and more traders are realizing that they thought the rate cut not happening is becoming wrong, and that the FOMC is going to cut rates, sans no data, on Dec. 11…. 

In The overnight markets last night…  The dollar got sold to the tune of 3 index points in the BBDXY. But it’s not showing in the euro’s value yet… And Gold and Silver are starting this week on the right foot, with Gold up $14 to start the day and Silver up 31-cents to start the day.  Gold resiliency during the SPTs flexing of their muscles really impressed me…  let’s hope we don’t have to experience a week of selling like that one ever again! But, that’s wishful thinking with the SPTs always at the door, like the wolf… 

The price of Oil slipped below the $58 handle overnight to $57.92… No biggie… And the 10-year’s yield slipped further downward to start today with a 4.01% yield. It took the bond boys some time to come around to thinking that the FOMC will cut rates at their next meeting… But now that they’ve come around, the 10-year is getting bought by the boat load every day… 

This is a good and bad thing… The 10-year is used as a indicator of what mortgage rates will be offered at, and loans, etc. So, that means that credit rates are coming down, and that’s the bad thing in my mind, because it garners easy credit ideas for borrowers and then they do questionable things…  The good thing about a lower yielding 10-year is the bond servicing costs for the U.S. go down…  That doesn’t mean the lawmakers should go about upping their deficit spending… But it will… I can hear them now talking about needing to spend on this, that, and the other thing now that bond servicing costs are down… UGH! 

Every 100 days we as a country spend $1 Trillion dollars that we don’t have… It used to take about 6 months or longer to spend $1 Trillion dollars, but not any longer!  

Where has the year gone? It’s already Thanksgiving week, and it seems to me that just a short time ago, we were celebrating the start of summer!  As I get older, the years go by faster… I’m sure that’s a feeling that many before me said, and there will be many after me that realize it too…  Have I told you the great news that we are going to be blessed with another grandchild?  My little buddy, Alex and his wife Grace announced the good news last week… Alex isn’t so little any longer, and now he’s going to be a dad… I just hope that his child isn’t a problem child like he was!  There were several times where I threatened Alex and told him I was going to send him to Military School!  But then, on a dime, he changed, and the next thing I knew he was a full grown man and now is going to be a dad!

I’ve been so downward Donnie lately with my economic news, but just like a team that gets to play only cupcake teams, you can only play who’s on your schedule, and I can only report the data that’s printed… I can’t help it that it’s worrisome… 

One report that I totally disagree with, is the World Gold Council’s report on the Gold holdings of China and Russia…  These are totally under reported, and I would think by now, that China has more Gold than the U.S.’s 8,133 tons of Gold that they supposedly hold… 

Speaking of supposedly holding Gold… A new bill was introduced in Congress and has 4 sponsors this time, to audit the U.S. Gold holdings, their swaps, and IOUs…  I would like all readers to write their representative and tell them that you strongly desire an audit…    

Do you recall me chastising the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for cutting interest rates when their inflation was still higher than their target rate (just like the U.S. ) ? Well, I do, and that’s all that matters to me here, because a minister with the RBA came out yesterday and announced that the RBA will have to hike rates in 2026 if inflation continues to be strong… Well, inflation hasn’t weakened, so I would say that a rate hike is in the offing from the RBA…  And then I get to say… I told you so, I told you so, neener, neener, neener… 

Yesterday I talked about what a basket case Japan and the yen are, and then yesterday I saw a report that said that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is thinking of intervening in the markets to support the falling yen… I’ve always told you that the markets have much deeper pockets than a Central Bank, and that case holds true here too… if the BOJ does intervene, they will be wasting money and time… 

And a dear reader sent me a note over the weekend that the headline said that Japan was joining the BRICS… I wasn’t able to get the article to load, but still the headline tells enough, eh? 

And… So, farewell to our 2025 COLA increases in Social Security… The Premiums in Part A & B are increasing too! The Gov’t will get us either way…   And the deductibles are increasing too!   I don’t know about you, but there’s a phrase that gets my dander up quickly, and that when politicians talk about the “entitlement funds”…   No, they’re my funds that deposited after 50 years of work, and now that money is mine… And then the second thing that gets me going is that when I first earned the money it was taxed by the Gov’t… And now that I’m withdrawing it, it is subject to being taxed again!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard had an interesting bit of information for us late last week, that the BLS won’t be producing a labor report for Rocktober…  Ok, so that leads to a conundrum for the FOMC who has stated that they are data driven… How will they truly be able to make a decision on interest rates at their Dec. 11 meeting?  But they will… And that leads me to another problem I have with the FOMC…  First of all, they make interest rate decisions when they don’t take part in the economy, and never have… and then add in that they say one thing and do another…  I’m just saying… 

Speaking of the U.S. Data Cupboard… We’ll see a lot of stale economic reports this week (from Sept). The only thing I can think of is that the propeller heads had over a month to cook the books and massage them to look good… We’ll see… 

But today, we’ll see Sept prints for Retail Sales, and wholesale inflation (PPI)… I’ve forgotten what went on in September, so the BHI won’t be any help to us today…  And I would think that PPI will be strong… As whenever the Gov’t gets around to printing Sept CPI it will show an increase of August’s 3.0% rate of inflation… 

Bill Bonner had some interesting figures in his letter yesterday… let’s listen in: “Back in 1971 when the Funny Money Era began, US debt-to-GDP stood at just 34%. That is only government debt. Private debt was at 90% of GDP. Today, the figures are 120% and 140%. That represents approximately $38 trillion (a number suspiciously like US government debt itself)…of extra money. Money spent, but never earned, derived from credit, not from work — not from paychecks, not from savings, nor from sales or profits. And since no one broke a sweat to earn it, it might be said that it belonged to no one; is it any wonder that it ended up in the most grasping, ruthless, and conniving hands?”

You can find Bill here: www.bonnerprivateresearch.com

To recap…  the dollar’s buying has backed off for now, and I’m still convinced that it’s only a matter of time before it fully returns to its underlying weak trend… Gold & Silver are starting the week on the right foot…  and we on a 100-day, spend $1 Trillion that we dont’ have routine that will end in tears… I’m just saying

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me over the last weekend from Bloomberg.com and it’s about what I was talking about and that the dollar will return to its underlying weak trend soon (I strongly think!) and it can be found here: The Era of Dollar Dominance Is Coming to a Close – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Global South is losing faith in the dollar. Why? The US slaps tariffs on friends and foes. The White House tries to bully its own central bank. Debt keeps rising. Sanctions turn the greenback into a weapon. Rising competition with China and broken security pacts with the Middle East fuel mistrust.

Beijing’s more flexible exchange rate slashes the need for hoarding dollars. Gulf rulers pour billions into megaprojects at home and take more risks with investments abroad—money they’re no longer parking in US Treasuries.

Of course, the dollar retains formidable strengths. The world’s biggest economy, deepest financial markets and strongest military are all powerful reasons for resilience. Investment pledges that President Donald Trump has extracted from major countries and corporations mean money flowing into the US.

On many measures, the dollar remains the world’s dominant currency. Yet one metric tells a different story. At the turn of the century, the dollar accounted for more than 70% of global FX reserves. Now, it’s less than 60%. If the euro area wasn’t so fragmented, and the Chinese financial system so closed, alternatives would be more attractive and the decline faster.

For America, that matters. In the past, China and the Middle East reliably recycled their savings into the US debt market. Their almost $5 trillion in peak reserves cut borrowing costs in the US by about half a percentage point, saving taxpayers billions on mortgages and auto loans and making it cheaper for companies to plow money into new ventures.

No more. China has already stopped buying dollars. In the future, it may start selling them. A gradual retreat would lift US rates slowly. A rapid decoupling could jolt markets. In the Persian Gulf, cheaper oil and lavish spending will drain surpluses and reduce flows into the US. Diminished dollar dominance also reduces its utility to Washington as a tool of economic statecraft.

Structural forces that kept the dollar high, US borrowing costs are low and Treasury sanctions powerful are reversing. The consequences will be far-reaching.”

Chuck again… The end of the dollar dominance brings about a cheaper dollar, and that plays nicely in the sand box with the thought that the U.S. Empire is dying… 

Market Prices 11/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6459, kiwi .5604, C$ .7083, euro 1.1550, sterling 1.3177, Swiss $1.2362, European Style: rand 17.2287, krone 10.2450, SEK 9.4536, forint 330.47, zloty 3.6589, koruna 20.8964, RUB 78.84, yen 156.17, sing 1.30.18, HKD 7.7765, INR 89.22, China 7.0860, peso 18.44, BRL 5.3677, BBDXY 1,223, Dollar Index 100.23, Oil $57.92, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $51.92, Platinum $1,572.00, Palladium $1,421.00, Copper $5.17, and Gold… $4,150

That’s it for today… A more of a what’s on Chuck’s mind kind of Pfennig today, which we need every now and then, eh?  Our Blues lost again last night this time to the Rangers… UGH!  The College Basketball season is upon us now, and I’m hoping that the St. Louis U. Billikens and Mizzou Tigers basketball teams are good this year… Both teams are off to good starts…  My last infusion is giving me fits, with one day of problems and one day of no problems.. UGH!  The great Eddie Floyd takes us to the finish line today with his song: Knock On Wood…    In my first band that I played in we used to play that song, with me singing… Ahhhh memories… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought like there’s no tomorrow
• Japan’s inflation rises… What will the BOJ do?

Good  Day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you… My week of doctor appts went along just fine… I got my monthly infusion on Thursday, and it set me back a day, but then I was back to normal self… My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost on the road to Oklahoma… UGH! I had lunch with some former classmates on Friday, it’s always great to meet up with them again… Marvin Gaye greets me this morning with his big hit song: Let’s Get It On… 

Well, we’re baaaaccckkk! The bean counters that is… Yes, the propeller heads of the Gov’t that perform accounting (not like you and I learned accounting) and issue the reports that the markets get all giddy about, have returned to work…  So, now we’ll have something, no matter how full of hedonic adjustments there are in the reports, to look at and get an idea of whether the economy is sinking or swimming…  More in the Data Cupboard later… 

The dollar continued to gain strength last week and ended the week with the BBDXY sitting at 1,227. So, In essence the dollar has regained all that it had lost in Rocktober, and has me really confused as to what the heck is going on…  Serenity NOW! There are so many dark clouds over the economy but still, the dollar bugs buy dollars… I say, don’t worry, be happy that you diversified your investment portfolio, because the underlying weak dollar trend will return… Well, at least I think it will return… 

Gold ended the week at $ 4,066 and Silver ended the week at $50.06. I told you last week that I thought the new floor for Gold was $4,000 and Gold proved it to be correct at least last week…  Stuart Englert wrote a good piece on the need to audit our Gold holdings last week that can be found here; Government Secrecy Prevails Over Gold Transparency

Stuart Englert is the author of the book titled: Rigged… And explains how Gold & Silver are subject to rigging of their prices by the bullion banks… I recommended this book a few years ago when it first came out, and if you didn’t read it then, I strongly suggest that you read it now…  

The price of Oil got whacked again late last week and ended the week trading with a $57 handle… The Trump peace plan for Ukraine is to blame according to the writer at www.oilprice.com   And the 10-year Treasury ended the week weaker at 4.07%… The rate cut talk is Back On and so, it is that the Fed Heads will cut interest rates again at their meeting in December…  And that news weakened the yield in the 10-year. 

In the overnight markets last night… sanity returned to the markets overnight, as the dollar slipped 2 index points in the BBDXY, and Gold is up $13 to start our day/ week. Silver is also up this morning 23-cents to start our day/ week.  Kitco.com had a commentary about Gold, let’s listen in: “As we enter the back half of the fourth quarter of 2025 and begin 2026, the momentum for gold is truly remarkable, with prices surging over 10% in September (best monthly performance since 2016), 5% in October (All-time highs), 4% in November, and nearly 55% this year. This positions gold for the biggest annual gains since 1979, and with the right conditions, we could see $5,000/oz in 2026.

The price of Oil is trading this morning with a $57 handle, and the 10-year’s yield continues to shrink and start the week at 4.05%… 

The Japanese yen, saw tons of selling when their inflation gauge showed inflation rising to a new high. This brought out the interest rate hike folks… But given that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has a history of disappointing the markets, I have to question whether or not the BOJ will react accordingly… The markets know the BOJ’s MO, and so they have gone about selling yen…  I’ve said for years now that Japan is a basket case, and that statement remains in place. 

The outlook for gold remains incredibly optimistic. Worldwide, many countries are experiencing declining growth and rising inflation, creating a stagflationary environment that favors gold. When examining specific currencies, it’s evident that gold is performing globally and trading near all-time highs against the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Indian Rupee, and Japanese Yen.”

Kitco is always a good source for news on the metals, but they refuse to talk about the manipulation of the metals, and for that I don’t like being nice to them…  

I mentioned above that we’ll begin to see if the economy is sinking or swimming, and the first piece of information that came through was the report on auto loan delinquencies…  Here’s YAHOO Finance: “The share of subprime borrowers — those with a poor or limited credit history and a score between 501 and 600 — who are at least 60 days past due on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October. This is the highest increase since 1994, according to data released by Fitch Ratings.”

With apologies to Karen Carpenter, it’s only just begun….   BTW, while I didn’t like their choice of music, I simply adored Karen Carpenter’s voice when she sang… And her song: Superstar… is on my iPod for sure! 

And here’s another snippet from YAHOO Finance: “The number of Americans on jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October, government data showed on Tuesday, suggesting an elevated unemployment rate in October as an uncertain economic environment discourages hiring.”

And to finish this short list (because I can’t list them all) of bad marks for the economy here’s one from CBS News.com “A growing share of lower-income Americans are struggling to get by financially as their wages fail to keep up with inflation, according to a recent analysis.

Roughly 29% of lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck, up slightly from 2024 and from 27.1% in 2023.”

And the stock market continues to ignore the weak data coming out… Doug Casey, recently wrote an article titled” How long can investors ignore reality?   That’s a good question, Doug…  And one I’ve been asking for some time!

Before we head to the Big Finish, I wanted to vent a bit about Gold…  I had a dear reader send me a note that said that Gold had peaked and wondered if he should sell at this peak price….  Well, that all depends on whether you bought your Gold to speculate the price and make a quick buck, or you bought your Gold as a hedge in your investment portfolio, a store of wealth, and insurance against a dollar depreciation…  

Sure Gold has dropped from its high $4,350, but so what? It surely hasn’t peaked… Gold’s bull market isn’t a ONE- WAY Street! There will be pullbacks during its run to higher prices, but that shouldn’t cause you to think that the end is near…  It should be thought of as a buying opportunity and nothing more…  

There, I said what I wanted to say…   Questions? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had some stale old data reports late last week, but the current data is yet to be printed…  David Rosenberg, the great economist that I’ve quoted quite a few times through the years, believes that we are in a recession now, and I would have to agree with him!

The one report that kind of got my attention was the Consumer Sentiment report for this month fell by quite a bit…  I usually don’t pay much attention to these Consumer Sentiment/ Confidence reports because they are really just a pulse of the stock market… But this report comes at a time when I feel that Consumers are really feeling the pinch of higher prices for everything, and knowing that the Christmas buying season is here…   

To recap… The dollar is on an upswing, for reasons only the Shadow Knows… But Chuck is convinced that the dollar will return to its underlying weak dollar trend soon, so stay tuned and diversified! The awful data continues to come in and now is getting printed so, soon, we’ll be up to date… sorta… 

For What It’s Worth…  This is a very long article, so, obviously, I won’t be able to give it all to you, but the snippet will be good…  This is an article by Alasdair Macleod and it’s about the SPTS… and it can be found here: The Hammer – Charts and Parts

Here’s your snippet: “Gold and silver don’t just trade on supply and demand.

They trade on control — the kind powerful institutions use when rising precious metals threaten the stability of the financial system.

Here is a simple look at how that control works: (there was a daily chart showing the straight line drop in the price of Gold one day) 

a daily effort in the paper markets to keep precious metals from breaking out,

and what it means when the effort becomes constant.

MEET THE HAMMER / MR. SLAMMY / GOLIATH

He doesn’t work for a bank in the usual sense.

He works for the system.

His job is to keep gold and silver quiet.

Because when gold and silver rise quickly, they expose something uncomfortable:

the financial system is more fragile than advertised.

They call him The Hammer because his tool is simple —

he hits the market with huge waves of paper selling.

Not real metal.

Not bars or coins.

Just contracts — claims to metal that don’t exist in the vault.

That selling forces prices down.

It calms the headlines.

It buys time.

Years ago, The Hammer only showed up on big days:

Fed meetings, crises, major announcements.

Then it became monthly.

Then weekly.

Now he’s there every single day.

Sometimes multiple times a day.

Why?

Because the physical market — the real metal — is getting tight.

Central banks are buying aggressively.

Industrial demand is surging (batteries, solar, EVs, nuclear).

Delivery requests on the exchanges keep rising.

And the spreads and borrowing costs behind the scenes are flashing stress.

Everyone can see it now — even retail.

And The Hammer knows it.”

Chuck Again… See? Ed Steer and I aren’t the only ones writing about the SPTs…. And you thought I was off my rocker every time I talked about the SPTs…  Well, anyone that doesn’t see these large drops in metals for what they truly are (Short paper trades) then you need to get your eyes checked…  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 11/24/ 2025: American Style: A$ .6455, kiwi .5611, C$ .7089, euro 1.1549, sterling 1.3110, Swiss $1.2385, European Style: rand 17.2849, krone 10.2849, SEK 9.5322, forint 331.31, zloty 3.6649, koruna 20.9339, RUB 78.58, yen 156.83, sing 1.3042, HKD 7.7835, INR 89.24, China 7.1037, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3852, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 99.36, Oil $57.88, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $50.29, Platinum $1.547.00, Palladium $1,410.00, Copper $5.08, and Gold… $4,079

That’s it for today… Well, it’s good to be back in the saddle, writing to you… I’d rather do that than to go to a doctor, for that means I’m not fit and hale… UGH!  Getting old isn’t for sissies, as an old man once told me and now, I believe him! For I was never a sissie… never!  But I am getting old… UGH!  I look at my friends and see them looking much younger than me… Oh well, quit whining, Chuck. It is what it is!  Thanksgiving week! Have you bought your turkey yet? If you have you’ve probably noticed that turkey prices have gone quite high… Turkey for you, Turkey for me… Crowded House takes us to the finish line today with their song: Dream On… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the SPTs raid Gold & Silver again!
• Bessent say, “Don’t Worry Be Happy” about Debt…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A nice victory for my beloved Mizzou Tigers last Saturday VS Mississippi… Now, they have to deal with the Oklahoma Sooners this coming Saturday… UGH!  It was an absolutely beautiful weather-wise weekend here… Indian Summer, they call it… Hey! Next Thursday is Thanksgiving! Already!  I used to despise Thanksgiving, because of the arguments that incurred about whose family we would eat dinner at… But now that my parents are gone, and Kathy’s dad is gone, we have Thanksgiving at our house, and no more arguments!  The Scorpions greet me this morning with their song: Rock You Like A Hurricane… 

That’s a song that I don’t ever want to see come up to play on my iPod during hurricane season in Florida!  

Well, last week ended with a dud for the dollar… But it was yet another engineered takedown for Gold & Silver… The SPTs like doing these engineered takedowns on Fridays because then the short time Gold holders will have all weekend to fear that there will be more selling, and they, then, sell their positions… I say, good riddance to them, for that’s not what you buy Gold for, short-term gains…  You buy Gold as a diversification in your investment portfolio to guard your money against all the dolts in D.C. And elsewhere… You buy it and forget it!  

Gold lost $90 on Friday, and Siver lost $1.74… Gold ended the week at $4,080 and Silver at $50.47…  Earlier last week, Gold had risen to $4,224, and Silver to $54.12… The SPTs couldn’t stand to see them go any higher for that would bring about HUGE margin calls on their shorts… So, they went about taking the metals down… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle through the weekend, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise to 4.14% on Friday… Inflation continues to drive the selling of Treasuries… Along with the questions about how the U.S. is going to finance their excessive deficit spending, and the credibility of the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel…  

In the overnight markets last night… There was a bit of buying in the dollar overnight, and the BBDXY starts today up 1 index point at 1,217… This will be a BIG week for the dollar, as the Data Cupboard begins to open back up…  Gold starts the week flat as a pancake (Head East) and Silver is up just 16-cents… Gold ended last week up for the week, but down because of the STPs on Thursday and Friday.  I think that a new floor has been established for Gold at $4,000… But watch, now that I’ve said that Gold will dip below the level today, as I’m usually the kiss of death for whatever it is I call out… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle over the weekend and the 10-year Treasury starts the week trading with a 4.13% yield… 

The Secretary of the Treasury, Bessent, says that the size of the debt is no big deal and he has a plan to deal with it using stablecoins… I don’t see anything going wrong there…  NOT! 

Well, apparently, there is a short squeeze on Gold coming to a theater near you… I don’t mean to make light of this situation, but you know me…  Alasdair Macleod is a metals analyst that I follow a lot, as he’s always got an angle that I didn’t think about in the metals trading…  So, here’s Alasdair in www.goldmoney.com  “There are now signs that speculators are beginning to buy gold futures, with open interest on Comex jumping by some 30,000 contracts in the last seven trading sessions. If it continues, physical liquidity will face additional challenges. And as the record of open interest shows, there is considerably more room for speculator purchases before the Comex contract becomes definitively overbought.” 

The end result here is that this should be good for the price of Gold…  And that’s that!

The weakness of the dollar last week had the euro picking up some value and it finished the week back above the 1.16 level… The rest of the currencies have gotten out of their respective sick beds, and are up walking down the hall for exercise… I did notice that the Chinese renminbi had rallied again, and this time its not for window dressing for an upcoming meeting between the U.S. and China… The renminbi has been allowed to move to a 7.09 handle VS the dollar…  This is where the renminbi stalled out the last time it moved to this level, so it will be interesting to see if the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) allows more strength…  

If the dollar continues to weaken, then I suspect that the renminbi will continue is drive to stronger levels… I say “if the dollar continues” with regards to short-term… For I truly believe the dollar is in for a long-term weakness trend…  But, short-term, it could gain some strength, for this is NOT A ONE WAY STREET for overall weakness!

I had to laugh when I saw this headline: Greece to supply Natural Gas to Ukraine… I immediately thought of the poor helping the poor… I mean, when Greece, a country with a laundry list of its own problems, is helping Ukraine, you then know that Ukraine is deep down on its luck…   Needless to say, eh? 

There was some disturbance in the force at the Eccles Bldg., last week… I previously told you of two Fed Heads that voted no on the last rate cut, and now there is another Fed Head who has stated their point of view that the economy doesn’t need another rate cut… And that has led to the markets lowering the probability of a December Fed rate cut to below 50%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week. The shift followed comments from several officials expressing doubts about the need for a third consecutive rate reduction, citing the economy’s resilience and lingering uncertainty around inflation… 

I was shocked that a Fed Head actually recognized that inflation is a problem right now! I’m sure that a low-down assistant wrote that down for her to say…  I mean the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel does employ thousands of economists to do the math that the Fed Heads can’t do themselves…  I know, I know, I’m being mean to the Fed Heads, but they deserve any dissing they get! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard should get back on track this week, and the Sept Jobs Jamboree is going to be printed on Thursday this week… I know, all off schedule, but at least the prints will begin to filter through…  Not that they are worth a plug nickel but at least they will be something to talk about…    

To recap… The dollar’s week last week was for a softer dollar, and on Friday it just drifted… Friday brought us yet another engineered takedown of the metals from the SPTs… The Chinese renminbi is on a path to strength VS the dollar…. And the euro is dragging the rest of the currencies out of their respective sick beds… And the the U.S Data Cupboard is back this week!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article this past weekend, and thought, “Why not?” It’s about the debasement trade in the dollar and it can be found here: What is the debasement trade and why is everyone on Wall Street talking about it?

Or, here’s your snippet: “Investor jitters over a weakening U.S. dollar, rising government debt and central bank monetary policy have fuelled discussion and debate on Wall Street about what JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts coined “the debasement trade.” Here, the Financial Post explains what it means and how investors can protect their money.

What is the debasement trade?

In a nutshell, the trade is a reaction to the belief that inflation, deepening government deficits and monetary easing by central banks are devaluing traditional fiat currencies and sovereign bonds.

Fearing that purchasing power is disintegrating before their eyes, some investors are parking their cash in assets untethered to dilution, such as gold, silver and other precious metals, stocks, real estate and cryptocurrency.

“The value of the U.S. dollar in regard to what it’s able to purchase has become steadily worse since the 2008 financial crisis,” said Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. “As the de-dollarization accelerates, investors bid up hard assets, and those hard assets go up in value.”

Examples of governments debasing currencies to fund spending date back to the Roman Empire, when Nero set a precedent by gradually reducing the content and purity of gold and silver in coins. King Henry VIII made similar moves between 1544 and 1551, a period known as “the great debasement.”

Chuck again… Yes, this gets me thinking that my call for a long-term weakness for the dollar is bang on… I guess we’ll see, eh?

Market Prices 11/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6522, kiwi .5672, C$ .7128, euro 1.600, sterling 1.3185, Swiss $1.2572, European Style: rand 17.0754, krone 10.0914, SEK 9.6481, forint 331.04, zloty 3.6414, koruna 20.8422, RUB 81.38, yen 154.85, sing 1.3021, HKD 7.7735, INR 88.63, China 7.1072, peso 18.32, BRL 5.3074, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.22, Oil $60.09, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $50.96, Platinum $1,552.00, Palladium $1,412.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $4.080

That’s it for today, and unfortunately this week… Wait? What? I heard you saying that you had Dr. appts Tues and Wed this this week, but that you would be back on Thursday…  Ah, grasshopper, yes, I did say that, but I forgot about my monthly oncologist appt on Thursday, so that means I have to skip writing the rest of the week… sorry… A week without the Pfennig, what’s a mother to do?  Oh, well, it will get you ready for my annual Christmas vacation!   And no, I’m not rushing Christmas! I just mentioned it…  Our Blues lost 2 more games since we last talked… They have got to get things straightened out soon… The Quick Silver Messenger Service take us to the finish line today with their classic rock song: What About Me? I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and grand week, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Buter

• Gov’t shutdown ends… so what?
• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  I had a non-event trip home yesterday… I said thank you to the Lord above for allowing me to get home without any stomach problems… They waited until I got home! I got out of Dodge just in time as the temps there had dipped lower and it was chilly when I left to go to the airport yesterday morning. Well, I was a “sooner” on Wednesday when I said that the Gov’t Shutdown was over… Only part one of the vote to end it had passed, the other half was to be voted on last night… Head East greets me this morning with their hit 70s song: Never Been Any Reason

Well, yesterday was kind of a “nothing day”…  The dollar didn’t move from it’s overnight figure of 1,218 in the BBDXY and Gold rallied, after seeing the SPT’s on Tuesday… Gold gained $ 11 to end the day at $4,196, and Silver gained $1.18 to end the day at $53.33… Shoot Rudy, even the chartists are jumping on the Gold / Silver bandwagon, as they see the charts telling us that Gold / Silver are due to rise again…  

The price of Oil slipped $2 since Tuesday and traded yesterday with a $58 handle.  And the yield on the 10-year has seen a game of tug-o-war, as one day it’s up and bonds are getting sold, and the next day it’s down and bonds are getting bought… The bond boys were on holiday on Tuesday for Veteran’s Day, and so some catchup had to be played yesterday… Any way, the 10-year’s yield ended the day at 4.09% yield. 

The new spending bill was signed into law by the POTUS last night, so the Gov’t Shutdown is officially over now after 43 days of this nonsense, flight delays, people going hungry, and most of all… We as a country will sink further into the rabbit hole of debt…  But let’s not worry about that today, the Gov’t is back! YAHOO!  (NOT!) 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, the foreign markets didn’t think much of the signing of a new spending bill and sold dollars last night… The BBDXY starts today down 3 index points to 1,215…  Gold & Silver continued their rise overnight… Gold is up $28 to start the day, and Siver is up 79-cents… Silver has crossed the 54-cents handle, and so Siver has risen higher than it was before the massive, engineered takedown by the SPTs… But that was last week, water under the bridge… and all that!

The price of Oil remained down with a $58 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.09% yield to start the day today… 

But that’s been the MO of these engineered takedowns… The sell the metals until they’ve wiped out all the short time buyers, and then the metals turn around and begin their march higher and in time, they trade over the levels they were before the takedown…  Again, I don’t get ready to sell my metals when they take them down like they did last week…  I simply look to buy more…  I’m just saying… 

The currencies are sitting up straight and noticing the selling of the dollar… The euro is back above 1.16, and the Euro Wannabes: forint, zloty and koruna are all on the rally tracks, and I always find this to be significant… They usually signal a weak run for the dollar, so keep an eye on that… 

Regarding the Gov’t Shutdown, I sent a picture of a young lady on Monday to my good friend, Dennis Miller and she was saying, “The longer it says shutdown, the more we realize it never did anything useful anyway”…    I got to thinking about that and she was absolutely correct in my mind! 

Well, did you miss the cheaper prices for Gold & Silver? Well, that’s nobody’s fault but your own if you did miss them, for they are back to getting bought and Ed Steer tells us that “end demand for metals is still surging”…   Lost? Well, he’s talking about long option contracts that come due, the owner is demanding deliver of the metal  as per the contract…  That’s going to put the SPTs in a pickle folks, because physical demand will continue to put pressure on the upward price of Gold / Silver…   

You can go back to really old archives of the Pfennig to check this out on me, but I long ago and far away in a galaxy a million miles away, told you that the one way to make the SPTs pay is for everyone, and I mean everyone to buy some physical Gold… at that time there were no ETF’s in Gold/silver… But an ETF does eventually mean the trust company issuing the ETF has to buy Physical Gold, the ETF in your account isn’t physical Gold..  I’m just saying… 

The dollar has seen some selling in recent trading days. It has come off its most recent high of 1,226… Which means the currencies in your diversified investment portfolio are picking up… And doing what they are designed to do, it makes up for the loss of buying power in the dollar… They aren’t making great gains, just taking their time, going about rising in value…  Oh! Did you also miss properly diversifying your investment portfolio when the dollar was getting bought, and you could buy boat loads of currencies?  Oh, well, again, nobody’s fault but your own… 

I have an acquaintance, John Diener, who has read the Pfennig so long that when he began to read it the Dead Sea Wasn’t Even Sick yet! And he writes a monthly letter that he sends to me!  It’s Called Ruminations, go ahead an Google it…   Anyway, he had this to say about the layoffs by Corporations: “Large layoffs are again in the news. General Motors is to lay off 3,300 workers in its EV and battery departments as a result of slack EV sales. Paramount has begun laying off 2,000 positions. Target is to lay off 1,800 corporate jobs, UPS is to eliminate 48,000 jobs. Amazon plans to eliminate 30,000 positions, and accounting firm PwC has abandoned plans to increase its staff by 100,000 hires. More jobs will be cut by Molson Coors, Rivian, and Booz Allen. These layoffs prove that corporations are desperately seeking to rein in their costs. Reducing headcount is the quickest way to do so. ”

And I have something for you in the FWIW section today on a new ADP Report that should keep the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel on course to cut rates again in December, no matter the dissenting votes for a rate cut in the FOMC…   So, don’t skip over the FWIW section today… 

And since I traveled yesterday, and then was worn out upon arriving home, and so I napped… I have two FWIW’s for you today  this first one is about Gold, and the second one is about the ADP Report…   So, the first one is about Gold and illustrates how fickle traders are and can be found here: Did you miss the dip? Analysts see new bullish potential for gold as prices hold above $4,100 | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Last week, Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, was bearish on gold, noting that the sharp decline from last month’s record highs caused significant technical damage to near-term price action.

However, in an updated note on Tuesday, Kuptsikevich said that rumours of gold’s demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. Spot gold last traded at $4,133 an ounce, up 0.18% on the day and more than 3% so far this week.

Kuptsikevich noted that gold’s push above critical near-term resistance levels has created new bullish momentum in the marketplace. He added that upside risks remain supported by ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

“The outlook for the precious metal is no longer as bearish as it was a week ago. Growing political uncertainty, stemming from the potential repeal of tariffs by the Supreme Court and the Fed’s dovish stance, is creating tailwinds for Gold,” he said.”

Yeah, yeah, year, one week’s he’s bearish on Gold the next week Gold is the best thing since sliced bread! Fickle, fickle, fickle   

For What It’s Worth… OK, I prebilled this article above, so I’ve already done an intro, so with no further ado you can find it here: Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today’s new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023…

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.”

Chuck again… yes it’s getting really ugly in labor land… And no amount of rate cuts is going to stop that from happening… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 11/13/2025: American Style: A$ .6563, kiwi .5670, C$ .7142, euro 1.1619, sterling 1.3172, Swiss $1.2575, European Style: rand 16.9907, krone 10.0461, SEK 9.4128, forint 330.34, zloty 3.6353, koruna 20.8180, RUB 80.67, yen 154.61, sing 1.3003, HKD 7.7708, INR 88.66, China 7.0964, peso 18.25, BRL 5.2780, BBDXY 1,215, Dollar Index 99.26, Oil $58.87, 10-year 4.09%, Silver $54.12, Platinum $1,604.00, Palladium $1,504.00, Copper $5.12, and Gold… $4,224

That’s it for today and this week… Next week is going to be a short one as far as writing is concerned, as I have doctor appts. on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, a Pfennig on Monday and Thursday next week… As always you can go to www.dailypfennig.com to read past issues to keep the longing for a Pfennig in your mailbox at bay… HAHAHAQ!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers play Mississippi this coming Saturday, it will also be Senior Day at the game. Our Blues held on for dear life on Tuesday night after getting ahead 3-0, they barely hung on to a 3-2 victory… Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  Today is Veteran’s Day… A very important day in our country, not as important as it should be, but very important nonetheless… Make sure you acknowledge a Veteran especially today and thank them for their service. My dad was a veteran of WWII… I’ve always held that fact in high regard and thought so much of my dad… The Goo Goo Dolls greet me this morning with their song: Iris

I have to apologize for the tardiness of the letter today… right, smack dab, in the middle of writing, I had a stomach problem… So, an hour after dealing with that I feel like I can sit here and write again… UGH! 

Well, what a day for Gold & Silver yesterday… All the participants of the New Orleans Conference must have heard the folks at Battle Bank talk about Gold and went home and bought some!  Gold gained $118 yesterday and closed at $4,117 and Silver gained $2.34 and closed the day at $50.56…  No SPTs dared to get into that buying frenzy of physical Gold and ETFs… 

And, in keeping with my promise to Frank Trotter, I’m going to attempt to remember to put more ads inside the Pfennig… here’s today’s:

“Gold in your IRA? Yes please. Battle Bank will make it easy to diversify your retirement with metals that actually hold value. Because your future deserves more than paper promises.” You can find Battle Bank here: www.battlebank.com

Chuck again… yes, this letter has been ad free from the get-go, but times change, and so do I… What do you do? And one thing I want to add here is that my old metals Guru at EverBank has moved to Battle Bank to run the currencies and metals desk, and you can’t get a more knowledgeable metals person than Tim Smith… So, get on their waitlist, and when the green light is shown that accounts can be moved or opened, then you’re in! 

It didn’t hurt the metals rise yesterday that the dollar was getting sold… In the morning the BBDXY was down 4 index points, and ended the day down 5 index points at 1,218…  The currencies got out of their respective sick beds, and walked down the hall and back…  I’ve been in the hospital so many times that I know what they get you to do, once you feel better… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose a bit to 4.12%… Bonds are getting sold due to the fact that a TON of new issued bonds will be auctioned off this week… I went down this rabbit hole on this yesterday, so if you missed it simply go to www.dailypfennig.com and read it yesterday’s Pfennig there… 

In the overnight markets… The dollar got sold some more, not much, but the selling continued…  The BBDXY starts today at 1,217…  The rate the dollar is getting sold is slow, sloth-like, but it’s selling… Gold and Silver are adding to their monstrous gains yesterday this morning. Gold is up $17 and Silver is up 63-cents and is trading over the $51 handle… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher to trade with a $60 handle, and the bond boys are on holiday today, so the 10-year is 4.12%…   

Well, did you hear the POTUS say, “Our energy costs are way down. Our groceries are way down. Everything is way down. And the press doesn’t report it.”

Well, I don’t know who his shopper is and what bag-o-lies they’re telling him when they come back to the White House with a bag of groceries, but that all that is one big fat statement, that is wrong!  inflation is rising, as money supply continues to grow, and when you used to go to the grocery store and come out with 2 bags of groceries, and now you come out with just one plastic bag… You and I know that inflation is a real problem… 

But remember when I told you that inflation doesn’t bother the rich folks?  Well, I guess that plays well here… 

OK… Well, I have another thing that will show that inflation is real here…  Two years ago, my spring Training season tickets were “x”… And this year they’ve risen by $400!!!  So, I know not everyone gets season tickets for Spring Training, but it was just an illustration of how inflation affects everyone differently…  

So, interest rates should be rising to squelch the rising inflation, right? Well, this diddling of interest rates and cutting them when they should be hiking them, is really causing some problems… 

In the Sunday Bonner’s Private Research letter, Dan Denning did the honor of writing the edition, and in it he highlighted an essay by Joe Withrow… I don’t have the time or space to put the whole thing here, so I’ll just cut it down in my own words…  The cutting of interest rates to zero and Bernanke’s ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) caused housing prices to rise so much that the middle class can’t afford to buy a house these days… How did that happen?  Well, easy credit allowed Big Corporations (i.e. Blackrock) to buy tons of houses and drive the prices higher…  Now, they own all the houses that were for sale, and if you want to buy one, buck up, and pay the Corporation for the house… 

The Fed Heads and the FOMC shouldn’t be responsible for interest rate management, but they are and they have caused a major faux pas in housing… 

Any questions?  

The Gov’t Shutdown has ended…  I know, this could’ve been the headline story, but… I didn’t want to give the knuckleheads in Congress any undue glory…  This means, hopefully, that I can fly home on Wednesday without wondering if my flights will get cancelled! It also means that all the folks on welfare, I think they refer to the payments these days as SNAP,  will return to seeing checks in the mail to them or balances added to their debit card… I wish there was a real audit of the program, and a weeding out of all the folks that don’t require the payments…  But then I’m swinging on a Star and carrying moon beams home in a jar….  and no, I would not rather be a mule! 

All the old timers that read the letter will probably have that song in their heads all day today now…  Sorry… 

On a sidebar, when I was a very young man, I heard that song and went around singing it all the time because I liked it! I grew out of that phase of my childhood, but have always recalled the song… Of course, I didn’t know all the lyrics, just the first verse… 

Did you also hear that the POTUS announced that he would like to see a 50-year mortgage?  50-years? Aye, aye, aye…. He says that this mortgage will make buying a house cheaper…  BUZZ!  All that mortgage will do is make the monthly payments lower, so they don’t use up so much of the buyer’s monthly expenses…  it will make your ability to get equity in your home almost impossible, or it will take many years before that comes about! I just don’t think this will be housing’s savior!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week, has nothing but Fed Heads speaking until Friday when the STUPID CPI will print… At least that’s what I’m thinking with the Gov’t Shutdown over, that the data reports will begin to come through, at least by Friday! 

To recap… It was a day for the metals…  Gold was up $118, and Silver was up $2.34, and the SPTs were nowhere to be found. Good!  The day was not the dollar’s day and saw 5 index points shaved off the BBDXY…  We’re being told that grocery prices are not rising… And that a 50-year Mortgage will make houses cheaper…  Chuck goes through the incorrectness of these statements… 

For What It’s Worth… The good Folks at GATA sent me this link to an article by Jesse Columbo that I found to be FWIW worthy, regarding Gold… And it can be found here: Why Gold’s Bull Market Is Still Young – by Jesse Colombo

Or, here’s your snippet:” I’m a big fan of finding and using unique ways to value assets to determine whether they are cheap or not. In the case of precious metals and other commodities, this isn’t as straightforward as it is with assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate, where you can use simple metrics such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book value ratios.

This means we need to get creative and make comparisons to other important assets or economic data. The absolute price of an asset does not determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued. For example, there have been times, like in 1980, when gold at $800 was very expensive, and other times, such as in 2020, when gold at $1,600 was a bargain.

That’s why it helps to compare precious metals to meaningful yardsticks. In this report, I’m going to share five specific yardsticks: U.S. dollars, U.S. inflation, M2 money supply, the Dow, and the national debt, and use them to make the case that gold’s current bull market is still very young, relative to the last secular bull markets in the 1970s and 2000s, and has many more years ahead of it. While this report focuses solely on gold, I plan to publish a similar one on silver soon.

For the purposes of the exercises in this report, the dates I’m using for the two prior secular gold bull markets are August 1970 to January 1980 for the 1970s bull market, and April 2001 to September 2011 for the 2000s bull market. These timeframes are widely accepted as the official start and end points of those respective bull markets.

As for the current secular gold bull market, while there is some subjectivity and debate around when it began, I’m using October 2022 as the starting point. I believe this is well justified based on where gold bottomed, both in dollar terms and relative to the other four yardsticks used in this report. This can be clearly seen in the charts I’ve included.

I also believe that, while October 2022 marked the bottom and the start of the new secular bull market, it was in March 2024 that it truly gained momentum and vibrancy. I plan to write another piece soon to explore that nuance and distinction, but for the purposes of this report, I’ll use October 2022 as the starting point.”

Chuck Again… Mr. Columbo goes through his illustrations of times that shows that Gold is just beginning its next phase.. So, click on the link and read away! 

Market Prices 11/11/2025: American Style: A$ .6532, kiwi .5664, C$ .7136, euro 1.1597, sterling 1.3136, Swiss $1.2506, European Style: rand 17.1560, krone 10.0594, SEK 9.6192, forint 332.72, zloty 3.6460, koruna 20.9235, RUB 80.95, yen 153.87, sing 1.3003, HKD 7.7723, INR 88.06, China 7.1170, peso 18.36, BRL 5.2734, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.34, Oil $60.70, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $51.07, Platinum $1,593.00, Palladium $1,460.00, Copper $5.09, and Gold… $4,134

That’s it for today…  I made it to the finish line! It’s Veteran’s Day!  And my time here down South comes to an end tomorrow… It was a great relaxing break for me, away from the cold spell of a couple of days that St. Louis suffered… I’m going back home alone, and will be all by myself at home for the next week… This will be the first time I’ve traveled by myself since I was back at EverBank and traveling to speak… Those were the days…  But they are in the past now, and I move on…  Wilson Pickett takes us to the finish line today with his song: 634-5789…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Friday and overnight
• U.S. Treasury to issue a boat load of bonds this week…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers laid an egg on Saturday and lost badly… They are now officially out of the College Playoffs, as if they really had an opportunity to get there anyway…  Went to dinner with some friends Saturday night, yummy! Things seem to be more crowded at this time of year down here, I can only fear when the snowbirds all arrive…  Of course, I’m a snowbird, but I’ve been doing it for a long time now, whereas these snowbirds from up East, are newcomers, and have really driven up the price of everything down here… I’m just saying… The Cornelius Brothers and Sister Rose greet me this morning with their song: Too Late To Turn Back Now… 

Well, the dollar buying stopped late last week, and on Friday, the day we should have gotten the results of the BLS’s Jobs Report, but didn’t because of the Gov’t Shutdown, the dollar saw 2 index points shaved from the BBDXY and the euro climb back above the 1.15 handle… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,223… 

Gold was kept below the $4,000 figure on Friday, and ended the week up $23 at $3,999…  The SPTs made sure that Gold didn’t close above $4,000 so that everyone would see that figure over the weekend. Silver gained 28-cents on the day, and ended the week at $48.22… It will be interesting to see if the physical buyers of Gold are strong enough this week to overcome the SPTs, and Gold gets back above $4,000 for more than just one day… 

The Fed observers changed their sentiment late last week, and started to believe that no matter what the ADP Employment Report showed them, the Fed Heads will go ahead and cut rates again in their December meeting… That meeting in December will be December 10th… So, we have a month to read and hear about what people think about the meeting…  UGH!  

The change in sentiment was the reason for the slippage in the dollar, and the gains in the metals…  Fundamentals no longer have a say about the direction of these things, it’s all about sentiment… And quite frankly, I don’t get their sentiment very often… But que sera, sera… Whatever will be, will be… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $59 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw the selling of the bond end, for now, and its yield drop to end the week at 4.10%… (Change of sentiment played here too) 

In the overnight markets last night…  get this… The Gov’t shutdown might be coming to an end… And the dollar is getting sold!  Strange, but follow along… The ending of the shutdown would mean a return to the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and what they might be doing at their December meeting… And that has led traders to think that the FOMC will cut rates and that has the dollar getting sold this morning to the tune of 4 index points in the BBDXY…

We start our day/ week with the BBDXY at 1,219… Gold is starting the day/ week getting bought and is up $83 this morning, while Silver is getting bought too, and is up $1.20 this morning…  Silver is back to $50 and the STPs must be chewing their fingers nails to the cusp… The SPTs made it clear two weeks ago, that they were not going to let Silver trade above $50 and after the selling was over, they tried to keep below $40, but that dog wouldn’t hunt, so they settled on keeping it below $50… 

But look where we are this morning…  Over $50! Gold is back over $4,000 and that was quite the tipping point for the SPTs… They can’t stand to see Gold over $4,000, but here we are again… This time, I think that both Gold & Silver will be able to hold onto their new levels and even add to them… So, did you take advantage of the cheaper levels in Gold & Silver when I pointed them out to you?  hmmm…  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle, and the bond boys are thinking like everyone else now that the FOMC will cut rates again in December, and therefore the ratchet the yield of the 10-year higher. The 10-year sits this morning at 4.12% yield. 

 The U.S. Treasury will auction new three-, 10-, and 30-year debt and this week’s refunding will total $125 billion…  Do you think that foreign investors will take the current yields on those bonds and say, Thank you, may I have another, please?….  Well, if you do, I have a bridge to sell you… Rather, I think that foreigners will demand higher yields to buy our debt…  

That means that mortgage rates, which had slipped a bit lately, are going to ratchet back upward…  You know, I was thinking the other day about Housing… And how the lower mortgage rates wouldn’t help Housing Sales, because the mean price of Housing has gone through the roof!  Houses are so expensive that the middle class has to pass on buying Houses these days…  I can’t put my finger on the report to give you the actual numbers, but the difference between 1990 and 2020 in home ownership of younger folks was amazing… 2020 showed that home ownership had fallen by a great percentage… 

In keeping with the change in sentiment thought, I found this on CNBC.com ““U.S. Challenger jobs data indicated a spike in U.S. job cuts, suggesting a possible cooling in U.S. labor market conditions,” Westpac wrote in a research report.

Traders ramped up bets on a rate cut even as Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday the lack of official data on inflation during the government shutdown “accentuates” his caution about cutting interest rates further.”

Chuck again.. Yeah, the Fed Head Goolsbee is attempting to cool down the calls for another rate hike there… That’s all, don’t get caught up in the Fed Speak!  

Did you hear the hub bub about Chat GPI’s CEO mentioning that the Gov’t should look to bail out the company?   Let’s see Chat GPI has taken on $1 trillion in deals (while still managing to lose $11.5 billion)  but no bail out for you!  David Sacks who’s now the White House AI and crypto czar, said “There will be no bailout of AI…”  

Chuck again, Whew! I thought the Gov’t had gone loco (more than usual) here and would entertain the idea!  

Ok, back to other stuff… The U.S. Treasury told everyone on Friday that they are going to increase the size of Treasury issuance…  No really? You mean the Country is going to spend more and need additional funding? I would have never imagined that could happen? Did you?  HA!  Just another reason that you should only be buying 3 years and in on Treasury maturities…  I’m just saying…

The long end of the bond curve is much more volatile and subject to rate cuts… so, use your head here… 

Remember when I told you that the bond boys at Deutsche Bank were shorting the 10-year Treasury back at the beginning of the year?  Well, they are still at it…  FYI… And if the yield of the 10-year does climb higher, like I talked above, then they made the right trade…  

The Gov’t might be ending their temper tantrums and the Gov’t Shutdown… Just think of all those travelers since Friday, and that had their flights cancelled and had to rebook a flight…. I think that was the straw that broke the camel’s back, folks… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still empty but there was news on prices this year. This weekend, consumer’s attention began to focus on Thanksgiving… And that’s where they found the price of Turkeys is up 75% this year from last year… Factors like disease problems and production shortages are shaping market dynamics—and ultimately, the price of your Thanksgiving turkey. So, shop early for deals… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar buying appears to be over, with the dollar getting sold a bit on Friday, and then a lot overnight… The BDDXY is down 7 index points from where it sat on 11/4 (1,226) Gold & Silver are back above levels that had brought the SPTs out previously… The Treasury will issue $125 Billion of new bonds this week… What will become of their yields? That’s the question of the week… And The Gov’t Shutdown might be ending…  keep your fingers crossed!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this last Friday and saved it for today’s FWIW article. It’s about how investors should take steps to protect their portfolios from a dollar collapse and it can be found here: Dollar Faces Risk of 2000s’ Boom-and-Bust 40% Decline, RBC Warns – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Traders should take cover from a protracted selloff in the dollar that could mirror the boom-and-bust cycle of the Internet bubble once the drivers that are supporting the currency turn into headwinds, according to RBC Capital Markets.

The greenback has already been hit hard this year by the uncertainty associated with President Donald Trump’s policies. But it found support from a soaring stock market and US asset allocations from global investors, chief among them mammoth, passive investment funds.

Over the last two decades, these global players have favored increasingly-expensive US assets, particularly stocks, with flows in turn favoring the dollar, RBC currency strategist Richard Cochinos, said.

“This concentration worked well in the past 15 years but poses risks in the current environment,” Cochinos wrote in a note. “A measurable change in demand (and relative performance) can have profound implications in FX.”

Once capital diversifies out of a shock, as it happened after the Internet bubble deflated in 2000, it would presage a deep downturn in the greenback — similar in scope to the US currency’s 40% peak-to-trough decline from 2001 to 2008, he wrote.

Cochinos also listed high valuations, changing trade paradigms and shifting safe havens among challenges for the dollar over the next few years, noting that “longer-term tail risk management should be top of mind as we move into 2026.”

To hedge against a longer-term decline in the dollar’s value, RBC recommends traders tap a range of strategies — from synthetic call options on the ICE US Dollar Index to bullish binary options on the euro and yen.”

Chuck Again…  Funny, he doesn’t mention a foreign CD that can be held in U.S. Bank… Like Battle Bank…  You know the ones I used to be in charge of at EverBank… You choose the currency, you deposit dollars, and they convert them to that currency and put them into a CD that pays interest. The foreign exchange isn’t FDIC insured, but your dollar value in the foreign currency is…   Tim Smith, my old metals guru at EverBank, now heads the currency desk at Battle Bank, I suggest you visit their website and get on their waiting list, it won’t be long now before they begin to take deposits and open accounts! 

Market Prices 11/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6531, kiwi .5640, C$ .7133, euro 1.1560, sterling 1.3162, Swiss $1.2406, European Style: rand 17.6969, krone 10.1064, SEK 9.5126, forint 331.63, zloty 3.3163, koruna 21.0118, RUB 81.02, yen 154.16, sing 1.3032, HKD 7.7732, INR 88.69, China 7.1200, peso 18.30, BRL 5.3342, BBDXY 1,219, Dollar Index 99.64, Oil $59.86, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $50.12, Platinum $1,583.00, Palladium $1,434.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $4,082

That’s it for today…  Ok, this might turn into a good week for everything, except I’m going home on Wednesday… And that reminds me to tell you that there will be no Pfennig on Wednesday as I will be on a plane bright and early! But I’ll be here tomorrow! Veteran’s Day is tomorrow… make sure you thank a Vet for their service at all times, but especially on Veteran’s Day… I read almost a whole book yesterday sitting on the balcony reading… I got up to go to the bathroom and that’s it… I was riveted to the pages of the book, and couldn’t put it down… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: The Story In Your Eyes… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rise on Wednesday
• So, I’m a gloom and doom guy? Hardly!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, it was back to my old habit of eating lunch and then going out to the deck to read for a couple of hours in the sun… It was a beautiful day… I missed doing that routine the last couple of weeks I was here last, because I had come home from the Hospital with oxygen and my stamina had to be rebuilt… which consisted of short walks down the hallway and back… UGH! I felt like such a wimp! Sugarloaf greet me this morning with their great 70’s song: Green Eyed Lady… 

Well, was it another false dawn or was it the beginning of the next phase up for Gold & Silver yesterday?  Gold gained $50 on the day, and closed at $3,983… Silver gained 91-cents to close at $48.12…  The dollar was stuck in the mud yesterday, beginning the day down 1 index point in the BBDXY, and ending the day, down 1 index point… The 1,225 level is where the dollar held out on Wednesday…  

Man, there are a ton of article out there right now telling us that “this consolidation in Gold is good” and that all the fundamental reasons for buying Gold still exist, so they weeded out the short-time buyers, and now Gold is ready to take off again… I’ve even given you a couple of these in the FWIW section in the last week. So, I won’t bore you with more talk about how these cheaper levels of Gold & Silver are buying opportunities that should be taken advantage of… NOW!  

Sooner than later, these levels will be looked at in our rear-view mirrors, and we’ll think… “Boy, that was some opportunity we missed”… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil finally slipped from the $60 handle to the $59 handle yesterday… No Biggie, just some slippage… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield shot higher to 4.17% yesterday, and the bond traders had the thought that whenever the ADP Employment Report does print, it’s going to show that there was some recovery of jobs in Rocktober…  and that could mean that the Fed Heads will pass on another rate cut in December… 

These bond boys are usually bang on in their thoughts on the economy… Which is why I always contend that they should be the ones that set interest rates in the U.S. and not a bunch of propeller heads at the ECCLES Building… That have never worked in the economy and only have studied it…   Seems like a layup decision to me, but then I think with logic… 

I also have always contended that the ADP Employment Report should be the go-to for labor data… 1. No hedonic adjustments, and 2. Any new hires or fired employees would be on the ADP records…  again… Logic…

OK, enough of my self-promoting myself for Chief of Data! 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar buying finally stopped… The BBDXY is lower by 3 index points this morning, but the currencies remain in their respective sick beds, waiting for the doctor to release them.  Gold is up $30 to start the day… And Silver is up 66-cents… If these two metals remain in the green today it would mark their first 2 consecutive day gain in over 2 weeks! Could this be the end of the “wash, rinse, wash” cycle for the SPTs? I would certainly hope so… They are dastardly demons, folks… I’m just saying…  And Oil sits at $59.99 this morning, so just barely below $60… And the 10-year starts the day with a 4.14% yield… 

I’m reading an article this morning about a liquidity shortage of dollars… I don’t have to time to go through it this morning, but when I write on Monday, I should have something for you… so stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

And circling back to the price of Oil… The slippage came as a result of 2 things: 1. The Saudi’s cut their prices… and 2. The U.S. reported a glut of Oil in supply… So, add those two together and I’m surprised that the slippage wasn’t larger… 

Well, the questions surrounding tariffs are still being asked… Yesterday, the Supreme Court addressed the tariffs, and basically said that it was a tax, and taxes are the responsibility of Congress… Uh-Oh… But then, no decision was made and we’re still asking the question of whether they are legal and if all the money already collected is going to be repaid…. 

And that leaves Corporations not knowing what to charge for what?  The economy is staggering and this indecision going forward isn’t helping things one iota! 

And in a case of “I missed that!”  The ADP Employment Report did print, it just wasn’t on the Economic Calendar… The report showed that there was an increase of jobs in Rocktober instead of a narrowing of jobs as forecast.   U.S. Corporations took on 44,000 new hires in Rocktober, and that beat for forecast of 22,000…  And if I’m being truthful, which I always am…. This data should have helped the dollar because it points to no rate cut in December…

But… if we go back and look at these things we see that the dollar got stronger when jobs were getting cut… So, it only makes sense that the dollar gets weaker on job additions…  I know, it makes no sense, but in recent days, we’ve kind of lived in an Opposites World… 

I don’t know if you’ve noticed lately, but the Japanese yen has been getting weaker and weaker VS the dollar…  The other day, yen was 155… And that brought about many calls for intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)… But I doubt that will be the case, for I just don’t feel intervention in my bones…  And unless the dollar continues to get bought and gets stronger, I think yen will hover around 155 for some time… 

On a sidebar, it was 69 years ago that CBS first aired The Wizard of Oz on TV…  Man, I remember watching it the first time and being scared and didn’t want to watch the flying monkeys…  But over time, I grew to love the movie… And I used to do a little skit from the lollipop gang, and people around me would crack up! 

I saw a list of Corps that had announced layoffs recently, and the list, that by no means had every Corp that had announced layoffs on it, but the total was nearly 200,000 jobs axed…  I wonder how the BLS would be reporting these layoffs… Probably by adding jobs using their Birth/ Death hedonic adjustment…  Yes, I’m being facetious but… The BLS deserves it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still showing that one is the loneliest number that would ever be….  But I have this:  “I came across this in Bill Bonner’s Private Research newsletter yesterday: “Rising delinquencies in auto, credit card, and student Household debt climbed to a record $18.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while the nation’s gross federal debt hit $38 trillion for the first time. The figures highlight mounting strain across every layer of the U.S. economy — from Washington’s balance sheet to families’ credit card bills.”

Chuck again… I think that we, as a country are circling the bowl.(economically) .. When will it get flushed?  I don’t know, but it won’t be too much longer…. 

And one more thing… I had someone tell me that I sell doom… Really? C’mon we’ve been through this before… I merely write about the things that are on the horizon that could impact your investment portfolio, if it’s not good news, so be it!  Don’t shoot the messenger… 

To recap… The dollar drifted throughout Wednesday, and Gold & Silver rallied… Chuck asks, is this another false dawn or is this the beginning of the next phase for the metals?   The Supreme Court left the door for Tariffs ajar yesterday, so Corps still don’t know what to do…  And it was 69 years ago that the Wizard of Oz was first shown on TV…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I talked about the layoffs in this country a lot lately, and so this article sums it up, and it can be found here: US Edges Towards Layoffs as Job Market Cools, Fed Rates Pressure Firms – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve’s ability to avert a downturn rests in part on just how long a post-pandemic irregularity can continue: labor hoarding.

Even with interest rates at the highest level in more than two decades and signs of a cooling economy, businesses scarred by pandemic-era worker shortages have largely avoided layoffs. Instead, they’ve pulled back hiring, trimmed job openings and reduced hours.

But recent data is stoking fears employers may soon near the end of their rope — and pick up the pace of job cuts.

Job Market Warning Signs

Firms have largely avoided layoffs, but labor demand continues to cool

The labor market is “at the tail end of this sort of slowing that was probably in train because the economy was normalizing from the pandemic,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. “If you let this situation continue to trend in the way it is, things run a high risk of breaking.”

The delicate state of the jobs market is not lost on Fed officials, who have increasingly shifted their focus to avoiding a surge in unemployment. While they have long wanted to cool down an overheated labor market, officials are wary of it softening too much, especially with inflation now much closer to their 2% goal.

Chuck Again… The old saying about how it’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job, and it’s a depression when you lose your job, comes into play here…  And the Fed Heads have moved the labor problems to the front of the line for their attention…

Market Prices 11/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6513, kiwi .5662, C$ .7095, euro 1.1521, sterling 1.3073, Swiss $1.2368, European Style: rand 17.3686, krone 10.1675, SEK 9.5932, forint 335.42, zloty 3.6911, koruna 21.1315, RUB 81.13, yen 153.67, sing 1.3050, HKD 7.7749, INR 88.62, China 7.1208, peso 18.58, BRL 5.3452, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 99.91, Oil $59.99, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $48.68, Platinum $1,571.00, Palladium $1,430.00, Copper $5.02, and Gold… $4,013

That’s it for today and this week… My beloved Mizzou Tigers play the # 3 team in the country (Texas A&M) this Saturday… They need a HYGE upset and if they do, they’ll have done it was a true Freshman Quarterback…. UGH! The Cardinals Spring Training game Schedule was released yesterday… I got a chill up my spine when I saw it…  The Harvest Moon is here now… This super moon is the closest to Earth it will come, and it fills up the sky and really looks cool shining down on the ocean… My favorite Beach Boys song takes us to the finish line this morning: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Is AI coming for your job?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Yesterday went by in a flash, with me traveling until late last night… But I’m here now, in my winter home, for a week to break up the days in November…  Sunny and 80 is more like it, rather than those bone chilling days back home… The Dodgers had their World Series Win Parade the other day, and my mind kept going back to 2019, when our Blues won the Stanley Cup, and the parade we had in St. Louis! Seems like a long time ago, now.. UGH! Today is my “other daughter” Rachel’s Birthday… She likes to celebrate her Birthday Month, so she’ll be busy with celebrations this month… Del Shannon greets me this morning with his song: Runaway… 

I don’t think that anyone from any era would turn their nose up at that song! 

Ok, I’m tired of asking the question of who on Earth is Buying dollars?  Because it’s not just a one-time event with the dollar buying, this has really gotten a life of its own.. The BBDXY rose yesterday to end the day at 1,226… Rate cuts be damned, this is dollar buying that has gone to an extreme…  Whatcha gonna do? Well, I would suggest that you batten down the hatches and ride this out… make certain you have enough food and water stored down there, because this is going to take longer than I care to admit… 

The selling in the metals started back up again on Monday,  Gold lost 70-cents, and Silver lost 59-cents… No Biggie, right? Well, it took tons of physical buying at the end of the day to bring it back inside the park… On Tuesday, the buyers just game up, waved a white flag and went home as the SPTs sold Gold & Silver like funnel cakes at a State Fair… Gold lost $67 to close the day at $3,933. Silver lost 80-cents to close the day at $47.20…   I found it interesting that Gold was allowed to close above $4,000 on Monday, but then they fixed that on Tuesday for sure!

I found this on Kitco.com: ” Gold’s rally has entered a cooling phase after two consecutive weekly losses, but while near-term momentum has stalled, the fundamental case for holding gold remains intact, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen said that over the past two weeks, the tone “has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing how much of the 2025 narrative—rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging, and central bank demand—has already been priced in.”

The other thought that I have on Gold right now is that all this selling could have been planned to get rid of all the on the fence, short-term buyers of Gold, and when they are gone, it will leave the buyers of Gold that are going to hold it no matter what the SPTs throw at us…   And Mr. Hansen above makes a good statement when he says that the “fundamental case for holding Gold remains intact”…  Couldn’t have said it better myself! 

The price of Oil has remained trading with a $60 handle for 5 days now… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield remained above 4% at 4.07%.. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, late last night I checked the metals, and they were getting sold… But this morning, believe it or don’t, the metals are in the green! Gold is up $33 to start our day, and Silver is up 51-cents…  So, the early trading has turned things around… I have to admit though that a price of $3,966 for Gold sure looks weak given where Gold was a week or so ago… The selling has gone on for so long, that I’ve lost track of time that this has been going on… But if Gold had not gone on that ride on Mr. Frog’s Wild Ride and jumped to $4,300 so quickly, and we were just now getting to $3,966; we would be ecstatic about its level, so just to put things in perspective… 

The dollar saw a bit of slippage overnight, with the BBDXY losing 1 index point overnight and starting our day at 1,225… I’ve talked a bit too much about how the dollar buying is not warranted, and that it is overdone, so I won’t go down that rabbit hole again… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury has a yield of 4.07% to start our day today.

I found this on www.moneymetals.com : “Central bank gold buying hit the highest level of the year in September, with several new banks adding to their reserves.

Globally, central banks officially added a net 39 Tonnes of gold to their holdings in September. That was up 79 percent month-on-month and was above the 12-month average of 27 Tonnes.” 

Chuck again… yes, Central Bank buying was going on during Gold’s sprint higher, so they weren’t deterred from buying then… Just shows to go you, that when you want to buy, you buy, no matter what the price is!  

That’s how I buy things… If I need it, I go buy it, and if it’s on sale then great, but if not, no biggie to me, because I needed it… 

And I found this on Ed Steer’s letter this morning ( www.edsteergoldsilver.com ) : “Corporate America is getting rocked by historic rounds of white-collar layoffs, leading some to wonder: Has AI finally come for their jobs?

While the proliferation of generative and agentic artificial intelligence is playing a role, recent job cut announcements from companies like Amazon, UPS and Target are about a lot more than just the advance of new technology.

The firms, which each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 roles eliminated this year, said they’re trying to cut corporate bloat, streamline operations and adjust to new business models.”

Chuck again… I told you a week or so ago that the layoffs from major Corporations were piling up in numbers that were significant, so this is not new news, but a continuation of the story that’s playing out before us… 

I don’t have much else to talk about today, so we’ll just head on to the Big Finish… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is lonely… it has no one to love it… and this will go on as long as the Gov’t is shutdown. 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought on Tuesday, and the metals continued to get sold… It’s a mess in Chuck’s eye…  The dollar is overbought, overcooked, overhyped, etc. when will this end? Only the Shadow Knows…

For What It’s Worth… Well, the Gov’t shutdown has gone on as long it seems as the Gold selling, but in fact, it has gone on longer!  This is an article about the Gov’t Shutdown and its effects, and it can be found here: Record Government Shutdown Costs US Economy About $15 Billion Each Week – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, and with no sign of a resolution soon its economic toll is deepening.

Now in its 36th day, the shutdown has surpassed the previous record set in early 2019 during President Donald Trump’s first term. Every week that passes costs the economy anywhere from $10 billion to $30 billion, based on analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range.

In the past, the hit to economic growth has been temporary, with furloughed employees getting back pay and the federal government making up for the halted spending once reopened.

This one stands to inflict more damage, and not just because of its length, economists say. The economy is more fragile than seven years ago, with many Americans fretting about inflation and job prospects. And unlike during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the fallout extends beyond federal workers missing paychecks to millions of Americans losing full access to food assistance heading into the holiday season.

“The experience, historically, is that government shutdowns don’t cause calamity,” said Jonathan Millar, a senior US economist at Barclays. “This time could be different.”

Depending on its length, the shutdown could lower fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 2 percentage points, according to the Congressional Budget Office. If the stalemate extends to Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion won’t be recovered at all, the CBO said.”

Chuck Again… 4^th QTR GDP might just be negative in my view… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

Market Prices 11/5/2025: American Style: A$ .6479, kiwi .5641, C$ .7075, euro 1.1487, sterling 1.3029, Swiss $1.2341, European Style: rand 17.4647, krone 10.2306, SEK 9.5890, forint 336.79, zloty 3.7062, koruna 21.2080, RUB 81.30, yen 153.65, sing 1.3070, HKD 7.7753, INR 88.65, China 7.1275, peso 18.66, BRL 5.4005, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 100.18, Oil $60.69, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $47.71, Platinum $1,542.00, Palladium $1,418.00, Copper $4.92, and Gold…. $3,966

That’s it for today… A partly cloudy day here on the coast but the sun is poking through, so that’s a good thing!  Our Blues finally won a hockey game VS the Oilers… It has been over a week of losing for the Blues, so nice to see them right the ship… The radio is playing my favorite song: Cisco Kid… So, this is going to be a great day! Happy Birthday to Rachel Butler today… I hope your day is grand! You are a GREAT daughter-in-law!  The Atlanta Rythm Section takes us to the finish line today with their song: Imaginary Lover… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar rallies on word of a Trade Agreement
• Ohio is trying to get Gold & Silver spent!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another rainy day here but it’s been so long since we had rainy days, that I didn’t mind too much!  I was reading a book yesterday, and noticed it was 2 pm… I fell asleep and didn’t wake up until it was time for Jeopardy at 4:30… I really enjoy Jeopardy, and I try with all my might to answer the clues… I rarely get many of them correct… Unless the category is rock music or sports…  My good friend, Duane is also a Jeopardy junkie like me, and last Friday we watched Jeopardy on his phone in our favorite Watering Hole!  Sam & Dave greet me this morning with their song: Soul Man… 

Well, the FOMC did the dirty deed, and they did it dirt Cheap! (AC/DC)..  The Fed Funds Rate was cut by 25 Basis Points just days after the STUPID CPI had shown that inflation had risen to 3.0%…  Dumb?  In my mind it sure was, but then this is what we have to deal with… Intellectuals making decisions that will impact us for years to come… Not Businessmen that know how the economy works…  Intellectuals, and I use that word loosely…  Powell recently told Congress that “if the Fed makes a mistake, it could cost everyone some time to come”    YIKES!  Just proves to me that the FOMC has cut rates 2 times in the past 2 meetings, while inflation is still rising, and money supply is in ample supply…  That they did those rate cuts not for an economic sense, but as a response to the pressure they’ve received from the White House… 

And guess what the dollar bugs did after another debasement of the dollar? They bought dollars! The BBDXY gained 1 index point to 1,212…  C’mon dollar bugs, have you become the scarecrow and need a brain? 

And Gold, which should have rallied on the rate cut announcement, that also had a caveat from Powell later that “a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion”, found the SPTs out and about keeping a lid on Gold. Gold lost $22 on the day, and closed at $3,931…  That was quite a turnaround in Gold that the SPT’s performed yesterday, as Gold was up to $3,955 before the SPT’s showed up with arms full of short Gold Trades… 

Silver was spared from the short selling yesterday and put in a 51-cent gain to close the day at $47.61… Why was Gold treated like a rental when Silver was given the red carpet to higher prices?  Good Question, Chuck…  And one you don’t have the answer to!  It just was…  

The price of Oil remained in the $60 handle, and the 10-year Treasury…  I didn’t believe the screen when I checked it last night… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.07%… What’s going on there?  Short term rates were lowered, and the 10-year’s yield rose? Shouldn’t that have gone the other way? Yes, sirree Bob it should have, but it didn’t and I have to go back to what Powell said, about the December rate cut not being a foregone conclusion…   That the bond boys said, yes, by then, we may be having to reverse the rate cuts…  Hmmm…  

In the overnight markets last night….  Holy Cow! (in my best Harry Cary voice) The dollar bugs have gone crazy mad! The BBDXY is up 8 index points to start our day today! What’s going on? It can’t be just the Powell words yesterday, could it? I guess so, that, and word that a trade agreement has been agreed to by the U.S. and China, although no details are being released right now…  But either way, the dollar is getting bought hand over fist this morning, and the currencies have all be sent to their respective sick beds… 

Gold is going to try to be positive again today, as it is up $37 to start our day… And Silver is back above $48 this morning, as it has gained 53-cents overnight…  Gold tried like the dickens to be positive yesterday, only to see its early morning gain get nuclear bombed by the STP’s….  

The price of Oil has slipped another buck and is back to trading in the $59 handle this morning and the 10-year added more to its yield and trades this morning with a 4.11% yield.   The bond boys have basically told the Fed Heads that they DO NOT LIKE THEIR laissez faire handling of the economy!  It will be interesting to see if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel go to work on getting the 10-year’s yield back below 4%…  Stay in your seats and keep your arms and legs tight, for this is going to be a ride on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride… 

The Good Folks at GATA sent me the following note: “Ohioans could soon buy their groceries or morning coffee with silver and gold instead of the American dollar.

House Bill 206, introduced by Reps. Jennifer Gross, R-West Chester, and Riordan McClain, R-Ashland, would establish a state currency based on gold and silver. The bill directs the state treasurer to set up a transactional currency rooted in silver and gold to address concerns with the value of the U.S. dollar.”

Chuck again, very, very interesting, eh? If this bill goes through, then it will be interesting to see how many states follow?  The first step is the biggest… I’m just saying… 

If the Fed Heads are thinking that the rate cuts will head off Corporations from cutting jobs… They are really barking up the wrong tree… I mean just in the last few days, Amazon, GM, Procter & Gamble are just a few of the BIG CORPS announcing layoffs that not just 1,000 here and there… They are Big Slices of workers axed… 

And you recall the “error” that Jerome Powell mentioned above? Well, you don’t have to worry about making an error in the future Jerome, because you’ve already made it and then doubled down!  I’m talking about the rate cuts, here folks… In case I lost you in the woods… 

The Caribbean is getting devasted by Hurricane Melissa, the largest Hurricane to hit Jamaca and has destroyed most of the island… Keep away from the U.S. please! 

That reminds me, if the Traffic Control workers are working next Tuesday as I’m heading back to S. Florida for a week…  So, early warning… No Pfennig next Tuesday…   I, of course, will remind you next Monday… 

Ok, back to economies, currencies, metals and dolts!  

Before we go to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share some word from my good friend, and Big Boss, Frank Trotter who posted this on LinkedIn yesterday…  here’s Frank: “With the US dollar declining more than it has in decades over the first nine months of the year it may be time to diversify into some foreign currencies with the potential to gain versus the USD.

For the good of the USA, we hope we don’t see another Minsky Moment but it has that feel sometime. Long ago on our Mark Twain Banks ALCO both Hy and Laurence Meyer were participants and taught all of us more about economics than our entire academic career.” 

Chuck again… Thanks Frank! BTW… Frank is busy opening the virtual doors of his new bank, Battle Bank…  They are going to do banking differently from the stuck in the mud banks that exist now…  I think it behoove you to go to their website and put your name on their “wait list”… And then sit back and wait for Battle Bank to contact you that it’s time to Open an Account!  www.battlebank.com

I kept waiting for the ADP Employment Report to print all day yesterday, and nothing but crickets… Hmmm…   What happened to the report?  Was it so bad that it got censored before takeoff?  I don’t know and there were not articles about the missing report, so we carry on despite our shortcomings! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the STUPID Consumer Confidence print for us to make fun of on Tuesday…  Consumers showed renewed confidence this month…  Apparently, they were swayed by the news that the POTUS and Xi would meet to discuss a trade agreement between the two countries…  What happens if nothing gets ironed out?  I’m just saying…  They should have saved their confidence for if or when a Trade Agreement gets worked out… That’s when they should celebrate! 

To Recap… The FOMC did cut the Fed Funds Rate 25 Basis Points but threw cold water all over any thoughts of a December rate cut…  The dollar rallied a tiny bit, and Gold turned around and got sold, while Silver rallied…  U.S. Corps are announcing layoffs of thousands of workers… And U.S. consumers are confident! 

For What It’s Worth… I thought we would talk about something here we normally don’t pay attention to, Consumer Financial Stress…  that’s what this report is all about and it can be found here: Consumer financial stress hits a five-year high as K economy grows, supporting gold prices | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Growing economic uncertainty has been a key driver of renewed investment demand for gold. While easing fears have prompted some selling pressure in the precious metal, new data highlight renewed risks for American consumers.

Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with a relatively calm third-quarter earnings season, continue to support equity markets at record highs and the S&P 500’s push toward 7,000 points. However, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) shows that consumer stress has risen to its highest level in five years.

The index rose to 71.2 in September from 68.2 in June and is up 26.3% from its post-COVID low of 56.4 in December 2021. The index has climbed steadily for seven consecutive months. LegalShield, a legal services company, provides Americans with access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation.

Specifically, the report noted that bankruptcy inquiries have skyrocketed in the third quarter. The Bankruptcy Index surged 17.4% in the last three months and is up 14% from the third quarter of 2024.

In an interview with Kitco News, Matt Layton, LegalShield’s senior vice president of consumer analytics, said that while consumer financial stress has risen more than expected, the trend has been developing for some time.

“All year long, we have been warning that consumer stress is rising,” he said. “We clearly have a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A sustained increase in consumer stress, we would expect, will lead to an increase in foreclosure and bankruptcy down the line.”

Although the “K-shaped” economy continues to grow, Layton said he suspects the two sides will eventually converge. He added that it may only be a matter of time before weak consumer demand starts to impact broader economic activity.

“We’re seeing families hit crisis mode heading into the holiday season,” said Layton. “The question now is whether this consumer legal stress translates into a pullback in spending in the final quarter of 2025.”

Although consumer financial stress levels remain well below the record highs reported during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Layton said the concern is that stress will continue to grow.

“We are concerned that these conditions will continue into 2026.”

Chuck again… Man, am I glad I’m no longer trading in the markets with all the chaos going on these days… These days I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quartertones… (J. Browne) 

Market Prices 10/30/2025: American Style: A$.6543, kiwi .5734, C$ .7143, euro 1.1566, sterling 1.3139, Swiss $1.2464, European Style: rand 17.3458, krone 10.0885, SEK 9.9512, forint 336.30, zloty 3.6765, koruna 21.0665, RUB 80.00, yen 154.24, sing 1.3018, HKD 7.7683, INR 88.70, China 7.1135, peso 18.56, BRL 5.3807, BBDXY 1,219, Dollar Index 99.55, Oil $59.90, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $48.05, Platinum $1,586.00, Palladium $1,429.00, Copper $5.13, and Gold… $3,969.00

That’s it for today… Well, the Blue Jays are one step closer to winning the World Series! The series heads back to Toronto where the Blue Jays will attempt to win just one more game before their home crowd…  I, for the life of me, hadn’t thought that the Dodgers hitters would go cold….  Oh well, that’s baseball!  The Mizzou Tigers have a bye this week, so no football game for me to stress about Saturday…  The sun is supposed to return today, so I have that going for me!  Billy Paul takes us to the finish line today with his great 70’s song: Me & Mrs. Jones… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

• Gold gets sold, but Silver sees a gain on Tuesday
• The FOMC meets today, what will Powell say?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a great lunch yesterday with my good friend and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter… We talked for a good time about everything under the sun and moon. I was full when I got home, and skipped dinner last night… REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their big 70’s hit one: Ridin’ The Storm Out

Well, I know, I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but the short selling of Gold & Silver started yesterday, albeit not as harshly as in previous trips to the woodshed that the SPTs took Gold & Silver to… Gold lost $30 on the day….. Gold closed the day at $3,953 Silver saw the same type of selling that Gold saw early in the day, but Silver rallied as the day went on and finished the day up 15-cents… and closed at $47.10…  Those are a long way from where they closed last Monday… But as Brien Lundin showed us yesterday in his FWIW article the percentage loss still wasn’t as bad as the previous multi-day engineered takedown sat at when all was said and done… So, Silver finished the day on the plus side for the first time in a week…  Now, it’s Gold turn… I guess we’ll see, eh?

The dollar gained 1 index point in the BBDXY to 1,211… Strange, eh? When everyone and their brother are awaiting the announcement of another rate cut today…   A rate cut, as I’ve said before: A RATE CUT IS EQUAL TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE DOLLAR!! What the dollar bugs don’t understand about that, I for the life of me can’t figure out, and the only thing I can think of is that the dollar bugs don’t understand the word Debasement!  Yeah, that’s it! They’re just too dumb to figure it out!  Now, I see said the blind man as he spit into the wind… It’s all coming back to me… 

The Price of Oil saw another drop yesterday this time to end the day with a $60 handle… Presumably, there’s a glut of Oil to deal with…. Hmmm….  The 10-year had already seen its yield fall to 3.98% yesterday morning, and it remained there the rest of the day.

The U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent said something yesterday that was very strange… “He said ” Gold price rising has helped U.S. substantially”  What? Really, Scott? Unless the Gov’t has backroom plans to revalue its Gold at Fort Knox… But there’s been no rumor of that happening,  not that revaluing its Gold would do anything but improve the off-balance sheet numbers, because they would have to revalue it at multiples of $10,000 to offset the debt…  The math just doesn’t work…  So, once again, is Bessent that ill-informed that he doesn’t know that when Gold gains… The dollar loses? 

I shake my head and wonder where on earth these guys come from?  Maybe he’s doing his best imitation of Bullwinkle and has something up his sleeve?  I’ll give him credit when he tells what’s in his plans… 

Frank & I had the problems with monetary policy, tariffs, The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, all figured out yesterday, but… I have you dear reader to talk to about these things, but what can we do to change things? Nothing, nada, nil, zero, zilch… All we can do is to alert people to what’s coming, and to make sure your investment portfolio is diversified with different asset classes than just stocks and bonds.. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Gold finally saw a bid! Gold is up $65 to start our day today… I guess the SPTs took a pause for the cause and decided to let Gold get to its own devices… Silver is up 10-cents to start our day today… Is this the Good Witch, Glinda telling us that everything is ok now, it’s clear we can come out again? I’m leery of another false dawn like last Monday…  The Friday before last Monday saw a major engineered takedown of the metals, but Monday the memory of the selling on Friday was erased, and that was then turned to short selling on Tuesday, through yesterday… 

The dollar slipped back to a 1,210 level in the BBDY overnight.. Stuck in the mud it seems for the dollar… The press conference following the rate cut this afternoon, will be the decider of whether the dollar continues through its underlying weak trend, or if it will rally… Chairman Jerome Powell, will need to choose his words carefully, this afternoon, and give the markets his best “Fed Speak”… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle overnight, and the 10-year bumped higher with its yield to start today with a 4.00% yield… 

Well, Doug Casey wrote yesterday in his International Man letter that “Gold has quietly overtaken the euro to become the second-largest component of global foreign exchange reserves.

While the US dollar and US Treasuries still dominate, their share has been steadily shrinking as gold’s role expands. Central banks now hold gold at roughly 20% of their reserves, compared to the euro’s 16%—levels not seen since the days of the gold standard.”   

Chuck again… I would think and this is just me thinking logically, that the Central Banks around the world will start to voice their displeasure of Gold getting taken to the woodshed….  I guess that remains to be seen, but it would certainly be on dance card if I was the head of a Central Bank! 

When the dollar selling had come to an end yesterday.. I felt as though I had been a ride on the Screaming Eagle roller coaster…  But those of us who took it for what it was and not any correction of end of a bull market, will feel as though the ride was rough, but we got through it..

And as always I’ll remind you that the SPTs provided us with a cheaper price and therefore a buying opportunity!   Don’t let this one pass, because… Well, just because… 

The currencies have been stuck in same mud as the dollar has been in recently and somedays it feels like I’m writing down the same currency levels as the previous day…  But there are two currencies that have their waders on and got through the mud just fine… The Swiss franc, and Chinese renminbi…  The franc has held onto its gains, while the renminbi is trading stronger VS the dollar… I don’t know if the Chinese plan to allow further appreciation of the currency, or is this just window dressing, if you will, for the meeting between the POTUS and Xi…  The POTUS won’t be able to accuse the Chinese of keeping their currency weak, that’s for sure!

The reports last week from Japan showed that their consumer inflation is rising to a level not seen in some time, which got the rate hike bugs all excited… But the Bank of Japan has done nothing but disappoint investors and I figure they will continue to disappoint with no rate hike. So, the yen continues to get weak…  Nothing new here… 

I don’t know if you’ve been following its progress in the currency roundup each day, but the if you haven’t, you’ll be surprised to see Copper trading above $5…  The short paper traders are focusing on Gold & Siver right now, and therefore Copper is stealth-like with its gains… 

No Data again…  This is really getting old with me, folks…  BUT! The ADP Employment Report will print today, as it’s not a government issued report… In the past, the markets don’t pay attention to the ADP report, but today will be different, in that it’s the only piece of data we have to work with…  So, watch for that… 

To recap… Gold and Silver finally saw the selling end yesterday… Chuck just got off the roller coaster ride, but is ok…  The dollar got bought by a smidgen yesterday, and once again Chuck questions the mental aptitude of the dollar bugs when they know very well that the Fed Heads are going to debase the currency today…  

For What It’s Worth… Well, here we are with yet another article on Gold.. But with all the selling lately, I find it necessary to keep Gold in the minds of everyone… So, there’s that! You can find this article on the prospects of Gold here:Gold’s not done: LBMA survey forecasts prices near $5,000 in 12 months | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “After significantly underestimating the gold’s potential for the last two years, market players are playing catch-up, with expectations that gold will test support just below $5,000 an ounce by this time next year, according to sentiment at the 2025 London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Global Precious Metals Conference.

In a survey conducted during the conference, delegates said they expect gold prices to rise to $4,980.30 an ounce. The LBMA forecast reflects a 25% gain from current prices. The bullish outlook comes as gold has dropped sharply below $4,000 after a wave of selling hit the market following record highs above $4,360 an ounce.

Last year, delegates expected gold prices to be around $2,941 an ounce; however, prices are now more than one-third higher than last year’s prediction.

Gold is seeing its best annual gains since 1979, with prices up more than 50% this year. However, it is not the best-performing asset in the precious metals space. Silver is trading at $47.14 an ounce, up 61% year-to-date, while platinum last traded at $1,591 an ounce, up more than 93% so far this year.

According to the survey, 40% of participants expect gold to be the top-performing asset in the precious metals sector through 2026.”

Chuck Again…  Take this for all the grains of sand you wish…  But for me, this aligns with my thoughts on Gold, so there’s that!

That’s it for today… The Blue Jays evened the Series at 2 games apiece… We’re in a period of rain for the next couple of days here, but Friday, it’s supposed to be clear for Halloween… I’m sure I’ve told you this before, but I enjoy giving out the treats and seeing the little ones in their costumes… The Bigger kids kind of get me rankled, but I let it slide…  I noticed one thing about seeing Frank Trotter yesterday, he didn’t seem to have aged one iota, while I know for a fact that I look in the mirror each day and don’t recognize the man in the mirror! How does he remain looking so young? Oh well, que sera sera…  The Guess Who take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: No Time…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Gold To Yourself!

Chuck Butler