Author: admin

• The dollar drifts on Tuesday
• But rallied overnight on the rise in the STUPID CPI!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals moved their traveling baseball show to Sacramento, Calif, for last night’s game, which started way too late for me, so when I woke up in the middle of the night, as I always do, I checked to see the outcome of the game, and saw that the Cardinals won 6-4… I did see the first 2 innings before retiring and the Cardinals posted a 4 spot on the A’s in the 1^st innning! Van Morrison greets me this morning with his song: And It Stoned Me… 

The dollar tried to go higher in the BBDXY yesterday, but by the end of the day it was back to 1,1192, its beginning price… and Gold & Silver continued the “getting sold short” day that began with Gold down $45 and Silver down $1.94… They ended the day at $4,717 and Silver at $86.44… So, the SPT’s tried to take the two down on the day, but the physical buying overwhelmed the SPT’s and put them in their place!

The price of Oil gained another buck and ended the day at $1.02, and the 10-year saw its yield rise to 4.45%…  No Fed/ Cabal/Cartel yield control in operation yesterday…

In the overnight markets last night… the STUPID CPI rising yesterday caused the dollar to gain a bit overnight, with the BBDXY starting the day at 1,194…  More on the STUPID CPI in a minute… The dollar is a creature of habit with traders buying it on the stupidest ideas!  But, there you go!  

The price of Gold saw more short selling overnight, and is down $19 to start our day today, while Silver, which had reached its 50-day moving avg with yesterday’s gains, is also seeing some selling but is up 19-cents to start the day…  I would have thought that Gold would react to the rise in the STUPID CPI, but then so did the SPT’s so they made sure Gold stayed down below its 50-day avg… 

Open Interest in the two metals are vapors right now, and when Gold and Silver were running to their recent highs, I said that the Open Interest falling wasn’t a problem… But now, that the two metals are looking for any gains they can muster, having a strong Open Interest would certainly help…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil dipped back to a $101 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw it’s yield rise by 1 bp to 4.46%

Well, yesterday the STUPID CPI for April printed… And even with their hedonic adjustments the year on year consumer inflation was 3.8%…  and that rise in the STUPID CPI was responsible for the markets, once again, reviewing their outlooks for rate movements from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel…I really can’t believe that the markets still go for this STUPID CPI… But they do, and so therefore I have to… UGH!

The POTUS is in China now, and hopefully he can get the Chinese to use their influence in Iran to get them to honestly come to the negotiating table… and maybe, just maybe, he’ll allow the Chinese to sell their automobiles here in the U.S.    I doubt it, but we can wish that a cheaper option to car buying is available. 

I’m at wits end trying to figure out why the dollar gets bought when it appears that the war is going to continue… But I have to say, it is, what it is..  And that’s that!

I know, I know the old safe haven talk plays here, but not in my mind, the dollar should be sold down the river for this incursion… And the fact that the U.S. has a major debt problem, that’s not going away… And they have a debt servicing nut that’s not going to get turned in their favor…  But don’t let these two problems get in the way of a dollar rally…  I shake my head in disbelief…

Well, inflation here in the U.S. has reached a 3-year high, and it’s not going to get any lower in the near future… I truly feel that consumer inflation is not 3.8% but more like 8-9%…  With everything under the sun and moon seeing price increases…

The real culprit is money supply… as money supply grows so does inflation, and dont’ be of the belief that this is inflation is something that can’t be avoided… Inflation is a Government phenomenon brought on by increased money supply… I found this on money supply: Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 22442.10 USD Billion in January from 22366.20 USD Billion in December of 2025. Money Supply M2 in the United States averaged 5745.38 USD Billion from 1959 until 2026, reaching an all-time high of 22686.00 USD Billion in March of 2026 and a record low of 286.60 USD Billion in January of 1959. 

So, you see the hard facts that Money Supply has reached an all-time high in March of this year, and it’s not going to get any smaller going forward, with a war going on…. I’m just saying…

I’ve got to talk about something other than money supply and inflation.. Well, the Chinese renminbi continues to be allowed to gaining VS the dollar and yesterday it reached a 6.79 handle which it hadn’t been since Feb of 2023…  I recall when I first talked the people at EverBank to allow us to offer Chinese renminbi deposits, back in the mid 90’s, the renminbi to the dollar was around 8.5…  So, we’ve come a long way baby! And there’s more to go! 

One of these days, China will gain a very wide distribution of their currency and then they can overtake the euro as the offset currrency to the dollar… This is just one of my thoughts, I don’t claim to know more than anyone else about this, just a thought that I have regarding where the world is leaning these days…

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI yesterday, that I talked about above.. Today’s Data Cupboard has PPI (wholesale inflation ) for April and that’s usually a good indicator of what we will see in the future with the STUPID CPI…  Tomorrow’s Cupboard will have the Retail Sales from April, and the BHI (Butler Household Index) tells us that with even with Easter Sales, we should see a weaker Retail Sales figure…

For What It’s Worth…Well, my friends Rich and Michael Checkan over at Asset Strategies do what they call an information line, and Rich does the writing… And his information line last Thursday was a keeper and I have it for you here: Information Line – May 2026

Or, here’s your snippet: n 2022, central banks started buying gold in a meaningful way. They purchased over 1,000 metric tons that year. They did it again in 2023. They did it again in 2024. Last year, they purchased 860 metric tons.

Prior to 2022, and going back fifty years, the annual high-water mark for central bank gold buying was 500 to 600 metric tons.

All that buying had an impact on the gold price… $1,700… $2,400… $3,000… and earlier this year… $5,500.

The buying started when interest rates were near zero. The buying continued as governments around the world raised interest rates in order to subdue inflation. (The peak for the United States was 5.25%.) The buying continued as interest rates were cut, starting in late 2024.

The buying continues now with U.S. interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Yet, over the past four years, every time I hear a discussion about the gold price, I hear the following phrase uttered in some form or fashion…

“Higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, making the yellow metal a less attractive alternate investment than other assets.”

The suggestion is basically that gold simply cannot move higher in price unless the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.

I could not disagree more.

All FED Up

I believe we give the Federal Reserve way too much credit.

I am not doubting the Federal Reserve is made up of brilliant economists who mean well. However, I do doubt that they have the understanding and the tools to drive inflation down to their target of 2%.

We may cover that at another time.

Today, I want to address my biggest frustration with all this hype about what the Federal Reserve will or will not do with interest rates. That is, at these levels, it should have no impact on the price of gold whatsoever.

The current Fed Funds Rate is 3.5% to 3.75%.

The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.01%.

That means, if you could get your bank to pay you the effective funds rate of 3.5% – which you probably cannot – your Real Rate of Return on your term deposit would be one half of one percent.

That is it… a rounding error!”

Chuck again… yes, the article is longer than the snippet, so if you have the time, please check out the article in its entirety at the link above…

Market prices 5/13/2026: American Style: A$ .7245, kiwi .5929, C$ .7304, euro 1.1709, sterling 1.3503, Swiss $1.2709, European Style: rand 16.3449, krone 9.1745, SEK 9.3815, forint 307.01, zloty 3.6307, koruna 20.7942, RUB 73.32, yen 157.83, sing 1.2725, HKD 7.8313, INR 95.19, China 6.7914, peso 17.23, BRL 4.8926, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 98.53, Oil $101.92, 10-year 4.46%, Silver $87.01, Platinum $2,136.00, Palladium $1,515.00, Copper $6.49, and Gold… $4,697

That’s it for today… I watched the Cubs play the Braves for a while yesterday, and found that if the Cardinals aren’t playing these games can’t hold my attention very long… Now, if I was there at the ballpark watching live baseball, I would be all over it! Yesterday was a non-event day for yours truly, as I didn’t even make it out to the deck to read! Everything just seemed to work out slower for me yesterday…  time to get on the run… The Amboy Dukes takes us to the finish line today with their song: Journey To The Center Of Your Mind…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver have banner days on Friday…
• But the STPS were back on Monday…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, did you get a kick out of my Friday Pfennig featuring Frank Trotter? Well, if you got ½ of the kick that I got from his writing, then you were a happy camper! Did all the mothers have a grand Mother’s Day?   I certainly hope so… I really found that I missed my mom on Sunday, and had to do something to get me out of the funk I was in…  And having the kids over did the trick! The Cranberries greet me this morning with their song: Linger…  (I love the singer, Dolores O’Riordan, and its sad that she’s no longer with us) 

Before I get on the markets, economies and dolts this morning, I wanted to share this with you…  When I was a young man I dreamed of flying cars… hey! The Jetsons had them! I always thought that by now we would have flying cars. So, it warmed my heart to see this on 1440: 

“Morgan Stanley estimates the flying car market could reach $9 trillion by 2050. What’s changing now is that governments are beginning to invest in the infrastructure to support it.

Florida has officially launched state funding for vertiports, creating real infrastructure for electric aircraft to operate. As a Florida-based company, Doroni is positioned directly within one of the first regions actively building toward this new transportation layer.”

Chuck again… Wahoo! I can’t wait to see the first flying car in action!

OK, Ed Steer had such a great explanation as to what happened to the Metals on Thursday, so let’s listen in: “It was patently obvious that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe/’da boyz’ intervened in the gold & silver space starting at the 11:00 a.m. EDT London close — and then didn’t let up for the rest of the day.

That was all aided and abetted by that phony baloney DXY ‘rally’ that began at the same moment…so this was obviously a well-coordinated assault on these two precious metals, plus their associated equities.

Not only did they close gold back below $4,700 spot…they stopped silver 2 cents shy of $82 spot — and then closed it well below $79 by the time they were done with it.”

Chuck again… So, we had a day where the SPT’s were nonexistent on Wednesday, but came back with a vengeance on Thursday… I just shake my head in disgust at these guys…  BTW you can find Ed Steer Here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

So, Gold ended the week at $4716 and Silver at $80.47… They were both up on Friday, so at least they had a positive week… 

The dollar ended the week down for the week at 1,187… As the war continued with shot fired back and forth in the Strait of Hormuz…  The price of Oil ended the week with a $94 handle, and the 10-year ended the week with a 4.36% yield… 

On Monday, while I was traveling, the dollar the STP’s must have been asleep at the wheel, as Gold and Silver rallied without governors… Gold gained $20 on the day, and Silver was the BIG Winner, gaining $5.75… For Silver it looked like a short squeeze…  Gold ended Monday at $4,734 and Silver at $85.95… 

The dollar didn’t react to the no Peace Agreement and ended the day with the BBDXY at 1,189… 

The price of Oil gained a buck and ended the day at $101, and the 10-year saw its yield climb higher to 4.43%

In the overnight markets last night… the no Peace Agreement meant the war was back on and the dollar got bought… I read a piece this weekend where the writer was scratching his head over the fact that the dollar rallies on war and gets sold on peace… Same thing I’ve been scratching my bald head over for weeks now! So, the BBDXY starts today up to 1,192… and Gold and Silver is seeing the SPTS’s wake up and begin selling short the two metals to make up for being asleep at the wheel yesterday…  Gold is down $45 and Silver is down $2.94…  Up one day and down the next… UGH!

The price of Oil remained in the $101 handle overnight and the 10-year saw a bit of buying but not enough to move the yield from 4.43%..

Well, the major media outlets are finally getting the picture… This from Fortune.com: “The $39 trillion debt is set to surpass its postwar peak—and the math says Washington can’t simply cut its way out”

The debts of WW2 had grown to 106% of GDP in 1946… By the time that Truman left office in 1953, Congress had cut enough to get the debt in order…   The Debt was such a number so large that policymakers spent a generation treating it as the high-water mark of what the country could survive. But they did it, and notice that the cuts didn’t have debt added to them like they do these days… 

I bring this up because the debt has gone past our GDP again…  And it (the debt) will continue to grow larger as the interest on our debt takes up most of the tax receipts…  I just keep warning about this growth of our debt, and I’ve been doing just that since the mid 90’s…  But has anyone from Congress done anything about it? The Fed/Cabal/Cartel, Treasury and Congress are in this together with each one responsible for parts of the debt growth…  I say, end the Fed/Cabal/Cartel, throw all the representatives out, and put governors on the Treasury!  

Boy, for being in one of my favorite places to be, I’m sure in a feisty mood this morning… Well, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet! Just kidding… Frank Trotter was busy last week as he wrote the piece on diversification for the Pfennig, and then he turned around and wrote a piece on Gold for the Asset Strategies web site…  here’s a piece of his writing on Gold: “There is the old saying that gold cannot be printed. Supply constraints are not an artifact of sentiment; they are geological fact. When fiat currency expands at will, a fixed-supply asset does not merely hold value — it appears to appreciate relative to the currency that is being diluted. In reality of course the value of gold holds relatively steady while the value of US dollar has declined.”

You can find the entire piece he wrote, which I might say that you should, but I don’t want to be bossy, at Asset Strategies International’s web site: Asset Strategies International. Precious Metals and Rare Tangible Assets

At Battle Bank, Frank had a devised a way for you to margin your Gold… In other words, get a loan with Gold as your collateral… It’s genius and I wonder where this type of margin wasn’t thought of before now…  So, Kudos to my good friend, and former Big Boss , Frank Trotter…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday last week had the Jobs Jamboree and it was surprisingly greater in jobs created than the forecasters had forecast… But… And that’s a Big But, (but don’t tell that person!)  The BLS was up to their old tricks as they added 394,000 jobs to the surveys (They’ll have to erase those at a later date, but for now, the markets have swallowed the bait, hook, line and sinker… 

I thought that by removing the old head of the BLS and replacing him with someone new that these shenanigans would stop, but the BLS is the same old book cooking, back massaging, and creator of jobs out of air that they have always been…  I shake my head in disgust!

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had Existing Home Sales, and they were awful… I’ll just say that and point to a previous Pfennig when I asked the question about another housing problem….  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The SPT’s were asleep at the wheel yesterday and the metals all kicked tail and took names later… But today, they have been awakened and the SPT’s are back to selling the metals short…  The dollar is getting bought this morning on the news that the war is still going on… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, after all that tough stuff in this letter today, I have a brief note here on the Gold at Fort Knox and what the POTUS thinks about it, and it can be found here: Trump still wants to crack open Fort Knox to personally confirm $700B gold cache has not been stolen

Or, here’s your snippet: “The president revealed that he’s still eager to crack open Fort Knox and personally ensure that the nation’s gold reserve — valued at nearly $700 billion — is still in the highly secure bullion depository following an uproar about it last year.

“We wanted to go and knock on the door of Fort Knox — a very thick door — and to see whether or not we have any gold in there,” Trump told “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson” in an interview that dropped Sunday.

The gold stash in the uber-secure Kentucky facility accounts for half of the government’s gold supply.

It’s not fully clear when the facility last went through a comprehensive audit.

“It’s a very interesting question. We played with that. I wonder if they left the gold in Fort Knox, because they steal a lot,” the president mused. “I do want to go to Fort Knox sometime.”

“I want to see if the gold is there, which I’m sure it will be.”

Access to its vaults has been heavily restricted for decades.”

Chuck again… this is crazy folks…. I personally think that instead of all the Gold bars that supposed to be there, in their place will be slips of paper that tells us who the Gold was swapped with… But that’s just me, and I’m a bit of a conspiracy person… 

Market Prices 5/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7225, kiwi .5950, C$ .7295, euro 1.1745, sterling 1.3619, Swiss $1.2805, European Style: rand 16.5364, krone 9.1490, SEK 9.2749, forint 303.59, zloty 3.6159, koruna 20.7135, RUB 73.80, yen 157.55, sing 1.2728, HKD 7.8293, INR 95.63, China 6.7935, peso 17.24, BRL 4.8914, BBDXY 1,192, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $101.56, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $83.29, Platinum $2,073.00, Palladium $1,496.00, Copper $6.49, and Gold… $4,591

That’s if for today… Well, I hope all the moms out there had a wonderful Mother’s Day… At the Butler House all the kids were there minus Alex, but Grace was there in his place!  We sat outside and enjoyed the day.. (except the Cardinals blowing the game in the bottom of the 9th! UGH!) Well, I’m back in my winter home for the week, it was great to not feel cold when I got off the plane!  I did get so see Alex at the airport as he and his friends were getting ready to get on the plane we just got off of! Jethro Tull takes us to the finish line today with his song: Locomotive Breath… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Fantastico Friday to one and all! I know, I know it’s Friday and there’s normally no Pfennig today, but… I have a special treat for you today! And I couldn’t wait until next Tuesday, for Monday, I’m traveling to my winter home for a week…  As you all are aware, Battle Bank is my new home for the Pfennig… 

And Frank Trotter is the President of Battle Bank and the man responsible for moving me over to his Bank! So, the team is back together again!  Well, Frank wrote a piece for the Pfennig, and I decided that it will be a special Friday edition of the pfennig… So, here’s Frank;

Way back in 1995 Chuck and I were on the International Markets Trading Desk at Mark Twain Banks.  Chuck was the head of Trading, and I made mostly unsuccessful attempts to herd the cats.

It was a sophisticated bond shop.  Over on the domestic side they were trading complex mortgage-backed issues and providing advise to firms well above our mid-size bank.

On our International Markets desk we were certainly the only firm we knew of focused on providing retail investors the opportunity to diversify outside the US dollar in WorldCurrency™ deposits and bonds.

Back then, the US 10-Year Treasury wasn’t just a benchmark—it was the undisputed king of the world. 👑

Best credit.  Pretty much the lowest borrowing rates.  “Risk-Free Rate”

If you wanted to buy debt in Australia, Canada, or the UK, you weren’t just looking at the coupon and currency; you were looking at the spread to the US 10-year.

In 1995, the US 10Y yielded around 6.57%. But look at some of the alternatives:

Australia was paying a massive +249 bps premium

The UK’s 10-year was 1.69% higher than the US.

Italy? They were paying a staggering 560, 5.60% higher than the US.

In those days, the US was the ultimate “Safe Haven.” Our fiscal house was perceived as the sturdiest on the block, and the rest of the world had to offer significantly higher yields just to compete for capital.

The US budget was headed for a surplus.

For those of you unfamiliar with the term “surplus” that means that the US would collect more revenue than it spent.  Of course, there were still off-income statement obligations but just imagine.

Fast forward 30 years to 2026.

The script has flipped in a way few of us on that 1995 desk would have believed. Many, maybe most “major” economies now have lower borrowing rates than the US.

What changed?

One administration after another piled on the debt and ran increasingly larger deficits.  Social programs, the military-industrial complex that Eisenhauer was so correct about, and now the interest payments are about to become the largest budget item.

Naturally I was delighted with the various tax cuts – the chance for smaller government and all that.  But each tax cut came with a spending increase.  Not the right way to run a business, and especially a national treasury.

The bond market just trades value as they see it.  What does relative inflation look like in the country?  What’s the fiscal situation?  What are the prospects for growth?  How much does the country need to borrow?

The traders add it all up and there’s a number in their head.  Millions of participants voting with a buy or a sell.  

With a ballooning national debt and a shifting global landscape, the US Treasury is no longer the benchmark it once was. We aren’t the ones demanding a premium anymore; we are the ones paying it to keep the lights on. 📉

When you look at the 1995 spreads compared to 2026, you don’t just see numbers—you see the story of a deteriorating financial lead. The “Risk-Free Rate” is feeling a lot more “Risk” than it used to.

Today of course this has all changed.  Pulling 10-year Treasury yields from Thursday (check for an update in today’s financial press):

US                             4.34%

Canada               3.49%

Germany             2.99%

Italy                         3.71% – seriously, Italy

Switzerland      0.32%

Of course there are a few with higher rates.

UK 4.92%, Australia 4.92%, and places like Brazil, Mexico, India and others where investors need serious incentive to provide a loan.

It’s our viewpoint that over the next decade it’s likely that the US dollar will decline.  I didn’t say crash.  I didn’t say become irrelevant.  Just decline.

Last year overall it fell about 10%.

These days people are apparently uninterested in double digit returns and it appears the market is overlooking the impact of currency moves.  After all there’s the stock market that seems to be headed to the moon.  Precious metals, which I suspect most of you reading the Pfennig hold, are skyrocketing.

But a word to the wise.  Double digit returns ,if they were to continue, can compound nicely to double in just over 7 years.  Sounds like a nice compartment in a diversified portfolio.

Obviously, I should disclose that each of these items can decline and these investments aren’t suitable for everyone.  Maybe the rest of the world falls apart.  Maybe something like the current war in Iran becomes World War III – who knows?  Also, precious metals are not FDIC insured and both foreign currencies and precious metals can lose value due to market price adjustments.

If you are interested in exploring alternatives for your portfolio, along with learning about the risks head over to Battle Bank where we give you can explore the opportunity to invest in precious metals and over 20 foreign currencies.  Of course there’s a downside to all these investments so consider that carefully before taking action.  I’m just a guy that works at Battle Bank and these aren’t necessarily the opinion of the bank.

Home

Chuck Again… Thank you, thank you, thank you (in my best Gomer Pyle voice ) Frank for this piece… I had extended an offer to Frank some months ago that any time he felt like writing; to just fire it off to me and I’ll use it!

That’s it for today… make sure you are on Battle Bank’s waitlist…  They will take care of you! I personally know several of the employees at Battle Bank, and they are great!Little Feat take us to the finish line today with their song: Dixie Chicken… (the live version!)  Now, go out and have a Fantastico Friday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler (With Frank Trotter)

• the dollar gets sold on Wednesday…
• The Chinese want a financial war with the dollar

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin Thursday to one and all! One of these days outlook will accept that I call today a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, as it tells me each week that I spelled Thumpin’ wrong…. Technology… What is a poor boy to do? Well, my beloved Cardinals lost their day game VS the Brewers yesterday. They finished the home stand and now head to San Diego… Good luck Redbirds! The Outsiders greet me this morning with their song: Time Won’t Let Me…

Speaking of time… I had a ton of notes for today’s Pfennig and this morning when I went to my drafts, they weren’t there! Gone! So, this will be a bit later this morning, as now I have to start fresh! Well, kind-a-fresh, I’m still sleepy this morning!

Yesterday morning everything was going the right way (except oil and the 10-year) with the dollar down 9 index points in the BBDXY,  and Gold & Silver soaring… But, as the day went along, there was some tweaking and Gold ended the day up $133 to close at $4,792, and Silver was up $4.53, to close at $77.24… and the BBDXY closed the day at 1,188 down 6 index points… Not as bad as it started the day, but still down by a good margin… 

Oil Traders were all over the board yesterday, with the price of Oil driving higher to $96 at one point in the day, after it was announced that there would be no more Navy guidance of ships through the Strait of Hormuz…  And that’s where it closed the day at $96

The 10-year Treasury has seen different sentiment this week, after seeing its yield climb to over 4.40% (And the 30-year over 5%) it has seen a different sentiment and now ended the day with a 4.35%…

In the overnight markets last night… It was announced last night by the POTUS that a peace deal is close… And that sent the price of Oil back down to start the day at a $91 handle. And the 10-year has seen another drop in its yield and starts today at 4.33%

The dollar overnight saw a bit of selling and the BBDXY lost 1 index point to start the day today… And Gold is up $43 to start our day today, and Silver is up $3.45… Silver is really playing catch-up these last two days, and makes me nervous as the SPTs are seeing this and waiting to pounce… I close my eye and I can see them lurking in the dark alley, just waiting for the right time to pounce on Silver…  I’m just saying…

Yesterday, I told you about how the Chinese renminbi has been being allowed to gain VS the dollar again… And then I ran into this on YouTube: “The global financial landscape is shifting as the Chinese Yuan gains strength against the US dollar, hitting a near three-year high. Analysts say currency markets are becoming a new battleground between the US and China, with strategic moves impacting global trade and economic power. While the dollar remains dominant, the yuan’s rise signals a slow but significant shift in global financial dynamics.”

Chuck Again…  so, the Chinese and the U.S. are in war… A financial war with their currencies…  to me, the Chinese have picked the right to start this financial war, giving that the U.S. will probably be cutting interest rates early next year…  I’m just saying… Oh, and did you notice that the press used the “yuan” in their writeup on the Chinese currency? Remember that I told you long ago, that the press uses the slang name of the currency because it’s easier to say and spell, not like me who uses the official name of the Chinese currency, the renminbi… 

The dollar has been propped upward for a couple of weeks now, based on the war in Iran and how it’s going… But now, that the ceasefire has held (according to the media, but who really knows what’s going on there?) and now a Peace Agreement is near the dollar will see days like yesterday, more often… 

Have you noticed the Hungarian forint’s rise lately? A month ago, when the dollar was getting bought, the forint had gone as high as 322, but this morning the forint is 302! The Forint is a European priced currency that as the number for the currency goes down the better return in dollars…  The Euro Wannabes of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are my sneaky clues to when the dollar is back to its underlying weak trend… And all three are gaining VS the dollar right now… 

The euro is still the offset currency to the dollar, and you’ll normally see euro strength when the dollar is getting sold…  Man, I’m really ticking off Outlook this morning, it keeps telling me that I’m spelling words incorrectly, but it’s wrong, I’m not!

So, how’s your diversification doing? Wait, What? You haven’t started yet? Man, last week when the dollar was getting bought was the last chance saloon to get in cheap… There’s still time, but it’s waning… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the U.S. Trade Balance… Remember back in the day when I would simply say: Trade Deficit? But then with the advent of tariffs, the deficit turned to a credit, and with this report taken before the BIG Rebate of tariffs Trade was a credit of $60.3 Billion… This will change once tariffs get axed…

Today’s Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which lately have been quite interesting in that the number of claims keeps falling… 

To recap… The dollar’s selling saw some tweaking yesterday and it fell back by 6 index points on the day instead of the 9 index points it was down to start the day… Gold & Silver have been soaring, and it makes Chuck nervous as the SPTs are out there… Sort of like when you swim in the ocean, you know all too well that there are sharks out there, but you do it anyway..

For What It’s Worth…  Well, with Gold & Silver back on the rally tracks yesterday and today, the calls from “the experts” for the metals to rally strongly are all over the place… And I have one of those for you today, and it can be found here: Morgan Stanley sees gold prices climbing to $5,200 despite geopolitical volatility | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher.

In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices.

Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran.

“With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist.

“Gold’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.”

High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices.

“Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said.

Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “

Chuck again…  Well, I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown Gold rallies like she said it will… 

Market Prices 5/7/2026: American Style: A$ .7257, kiwi .5981, C$ .7336, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3615, Swiss $1.2857, European Style: rand 16.2827, krone 9.2299, SEK 9.2018, forint 302.24, zloty 3.5924, koruna 20.6600, RUB 74.68, yen 156.38, sing 1.2657, HKD 7.8314, INR 94.28, China 6.8016, peso 17.20, BRL 4.9239, BBDXY 1,187, Dollar Index 97.59, Oil $91.80, 10-year 4.33%, Siver $80.94, Platinum $2,090.00, Palladium $1,566.00, Copper $6.22, and Gold… $4,735

That’s it for today… Well, my visit to my oncologist on Tuesday was interesting… She did tell me that there was no new signs of Cancer in me, but then talked to me about my jaw where cancerous lesion resides… about 15 years ago, I was going to have my right mandible removed, and I would never eat solid foods again… But then I ended up in the hospital with cellulitis and we booked a trip to M.D Anderson in Houston and the jaw operation was cancelled.. (Thank God!) So, it’s been 15 years, and maybe the operation is different now, and that’s what she wants me to check out… I told her I might, but I doubt I do… I abhor hospital stays, and surgeries!  This has run on a long time, time to end it… War takes us to the finish line today with their song: Low Rider… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Chuck wishes the SPTS would go away….
• And they have… for at least one day!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What a rainy day here yesterday! It never rained hard, or any torrential rains, but the rain was steady for most of the day. The Cardinals game with the Brewers was postponed… So, I had the whole night to find something else to do with my time. I read, did some crosswords and got things together for today’s Pfennig…  Carlos Santana greets me this morning with his song: She’s Not There…  (great guitar work by Carlos as usual) 

Well, Monday saw the metals get sold by the SPT’s and others… Gold lost $92 and Silver lost $2.62… it was a real ugly day for the metals, as Platinum and Palladium and Copper all fell in line and got sold too… 

The dollar on Monday was a bit stronger at 1,194 in the BBDXY…  There was a story out and about how the U.S. had guided 2 American Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Navy had sunk 6 fast boats that the enemy uses to attack larger ships… And that got the “war is back on” thoughts going again, and that’s the reason the dollar was bought, and the SPT’s saw an opportunity to sell the metals short… 

I can’t help but believe that these stories are on the shelf and any time the dollar seems to get wonky, they pull one off the shelf and use it to steady the dollar and get the metals sold again…  Hey! It’s possible! Don’t laugh at me, I truly believe that most of what we hear from the Gulf is fake news… 

And the price of Oil got sold down to $100 as the news that 2 ships made it through the Strait, got Oil traders all lathered up…  But the bond boys aren’t being fooled one iota… The 10-year’s yield bumped higher to end the day yesterday at 4.42% yield… 

Yesterday while I was getting shot up with the chemo they use on me, Gold found a way sold once again by the SPT’s to the tune of $92 and close at $4,527… Silver also saw the same trading as Gold and ended the day down $2.62 at $72.60  

In the overnight markets last night… Well, wish and you may get what you wished for… I say that because the trading overnight is akin to the SPTs walking out on their shorts… Gold is up $149 and Silver is up $4.68… And the dollar is getting sold down the river… The BBDXY is down 9 index points to start our day today… Where’s the PPT? Oh, they’ll be along soon if the past has anything to do with today’s trading…  But for now, the dollar is down, which is exactly what the POTUS would like…  Just the other day he said this: “You make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar,” and this is just one of a number of public statements showing his preference for seeing the dollar decline.

So, the dollar is falling from a cliff, like Wiley Coyote… And the PPT is nowhere to be found, right now…  The price of Oil has fallen out of bed overnight losing $10 and trades this morning with a $90 handle…  And the 10-year saw its yield get sawed down to 4.34% is where it starts the day today…

Copper is kicking tail and taking names later this morning, as if traders finally realized that the shortage of Copper is going to get worse… Copper starts the day at $6.20… 

This morning is turning out like like a thought it should be doing all along, except for Oil and the 10-year…  As Hannibal of the A-Team, always said on “I love it when a plan comes together!”

You have to wonder when, and if, the SPT’s ever have a coming to Jesus moment and walk away from their short positions… I know, I wonder a lot about when that might happen… What could cause then to walk away? Well, a short squeeze that lasted more than a week could do the trick… I think… I obviously don’t have any idea if that would work, I’m just thinking that it could go a long way toward my goal… 

If you have any idea as to what would get the SPT’s to walk away, please send them to me! I really want to know… Because, I get tired of having to type nearly every day that the SPT’s sold the metals and caused them to not be as valuable as they really are… 

News this morning is that the POTUS has halted the guidance of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as the Peace negotiations progress…  Do, you believe that? I don’t, but the markets do, and so the dollar gets sold, and the metals rally…

With the dollar getting sold like this, the currencies have all been awakened, and are getting on their horses to ride! Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen is participating, especially after their intervention a couple of days ago, and scared the traders shorting yen…  The Chinese renminbi is being allowed to gain VS the dollar, and the Aussie dollar (A$) is kicking up some dust…

This just in… The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked their internal interest rate to 4.35%… Hey! They warned everyone the other day that rates would need to rise soon…And soon came last night…  And now the ball is in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s court, where they normally follow their kissin cousin across the Tasman with rate moves… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Trade Balance, and with tariffs still hanging on (before the big rebate) March’s Trade Balance was positive at $60.3 Billion… I think, given the rise in Manufacturing, and this rise in Factory Orders, that businesses are preparing for a long period in the future when things are difficult to get…  Storing up the supples if you will…  Maybe that will help them when the rubber meets the road, but we’ll have to wait-n-see…

Today’s Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report for April…  So, with the ADP today, that means the Jobs Jamboree will take place in two days, on Friday… Right now, the forecasters say that only 56,000 jobs were created in March…  Now that would be not very good for the economy, if it comes to fruition… I’m just saying

To recap…  The SPT’s were ravaging the metals again yesterday, and Chuck wished they would all go away, and overnight it appears his wish has come true! As If! Well, it seems that way, although we know in our heart of hearts that the wolf is always at the door… The dollar is getting sold down the river this morning, and Chuck wonders where the PPT is?

For What It’s Worth… I found this article on Ed Steer’s letter, so he used it and that’s good enough for me! This is Alasdair Macleod talking about a Bond Armageddon that’s coming and it can be found here: Bond Armageddon ahead – by Alasdair Macleod

Or, here’s your snippet: “Markets are meant to discount the future by putting a price on it. But on the evidence, they are failing to do so as the table above intimates. Surely, we all know that the US attack on Iran has created a supply crisis in energy and its derivatives which will raise production costs of every consumer item. If these costs can’t be passed on to consumers, then businesses will go bust, creating mass unemployment.

Higher unemployment and loss of tax revenues destroy government revenues and increases welfare costs. Government finances are already in severe deficit. Yet, driven by Keynesian interventionism governments will be desperate to increase support of their private sectors and bail out consumers. But all that additional deficit spending will merely collapse G7 currencies’ purchasing power, driving price inflation into the mid-seventies’ outcome and probably even higher.

Already, financially challenged governments with record peace-time debt-to-GDPs are about to find their financial obligations go into hyperdrive. Yet, U.S. treasury bond yields do not reflect these difficulties. We have to look at other G7 economies to see the emerging financing crisis, and nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan and Germany, whose manufacturing bases will be most exposed.

Japan’s impending financial crisis is the most obvious. With a debt to GDP of about 230%, government finances depend on the lowest possible borrowing costs. With the Bank of Japan still suppressing its short-term policy rate at only 0.75%, the yield on the 10-year JGB is at its highest level since September 1995.

Clearly, the coming supply shock will disrupt the entire basis of Japan’s high debt and ultra-low-interest rate environment. The rise in bond yields to the highest levels this century is just the beginning of a bond market discounting a debt trap. This has negative consequences for other G7 currencies because the low-cost yen is the basis for a carry-trade supporting their debt markets. Furthermore, Japan’s pensions and insurance companies are the largest source of capital exports into global private sectors.”

Chuck again… and yes, this will affect the U.S. Treasuries… Which we already are aware that they have a funding problems that isn’t going away…

Markets 5/6/2026: American Style: A$ .7260, kiwi .5976, C$.7352, euro 1.1752, sterling 1.3640, Swiss $1.2532, European Style: rand 16.3387, krone 9.2730, SEK 9.1870, forint 304.19, zloty 3.5885, koruna 20.6429, RUB 74.64, yen 155.92, sing 1.2669, HKD 7.8354, INR 94.61, China 6.8110, peso 17.22, BRL 4.9110, BBDXY 1,186, Dollar Index 97.69, Oil $90.55, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $77.64, Platinum $2,042.00, Palladium $1,567.00, Copper $6.20, and Gold… $4,708

That’s it for today… So far so good, no stomach distressing signals yet… I usually get these right after my infusion, and then a small dose of steroids sets me straight again… I had some tacos yesterday for Cinco de Mayo… I once told of my visit to Cancun and singing in the public square, and one reader sent me a scathing email about being a MAK… I won’t spell it out for you, but I’m sure you can figure it out…  I’m heading to a funeral today for one of Kathy’s cousins… Sad story… I had watched him grow up… Ok…. Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Up Thursday, down Friday for the metals
• providing guidance?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals won 2of 3 from the Dodgers, and I was surprised to say the least! Yesterday was what my good friend Duane calls “A beauty of a day”… I sat outside to watch the game and thoroughly enjoyed the day, (Except the Cardinals lost on Sunday)… Jet greets me this morning with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?

I had a fantastico Friday last week, as many of my former colleagues came to a happy hour at my local watering hole… Thanks to Chuck at FBG for taking care of me on my request… 

Well, the dollar ended the week down and the BBDXY settled in for the weekend at 1,193… So, the currency traders were taking the dollar to the woodshed late last week, a far cry from them presenting the dollar with a sash and tiara the week before…  For once… traders did what I said they should have been doing since 2/28 (Start of the war) and that was sell dollars, and buy Gold… 

Gold did see some selling on Friday after rallying on Thursday.. Gold ended the week at $4,618. Silver was bought both Thursday and Friday and ended the week at $75.76… The war in Iran has seen that major offenses take place on Fridays after the markets close…  So, I was half-expecting to see that the U.S. and Israel returned to their offensive VS Iran on Friday… But peace held…  at least as far as the common man knows it held… 

The price of Oil after a HUGE rally earlier in the week, saw the price get whittled down each day as we headed into the weekend… The price of Oil closed on Friday at $101.93… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield closed the week at 4.39% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar received some love from the traders and the BBDXY starts the day/week at 1,194… What’s it gonna be boy? (Meatloaf)  That’s what I would ask these traders, that can’t decide whether to buy the dollar or sell it…  I wish they would just pick a lane and stay in it! 

The metals are getting sold to start the day/ week this morning… the SPTs are out in force and Gold is down $52 and Silver is down – $1.91…  Speaking of picking a lane! Up one day, down the next… it shows me that there’s no clear view on the direction of Gold & Silver right now… In fact, to me all the attention has shifted from the metals to Oil, and that’s causing this back and forth in the metals… Hey! Ahem! Look over here at me! I’m still being bought by Central Banks! Hey, focus your attention over here… That’s what Gold & Silver are saying these days…

Well, the POTUS said that the U.S. Navy would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but ships are still being attacked… And that news has the price of Oil bumping higher overnight and starts our day/week with a $106 handle.. 

And the 10-year Treasury is making things difficult for the Treasury, as the bond boys have the yield at 4.41% this morning… 

Well, the economic data lately has been a bit stronger than previous prints, and that has the Fed Watchers calling for no more rate movements this year…  Now, I wouldn’t got out on that limb like they did, because I see inflation soaring and the Fed Heads will have to raise rates before year end… 

Years ago, when I was at EverBank World Markets, I used to received emails from the noted economist Gary Shilling, who would chastise me for one thing or the other…   So, I was perusing the internet on Friday, and came across a quote from Gay Shilling: ” a recession and a deep stock-market plunge are likely by year-end..  Now that’s 180 degrees away from what I just said about what the Fed Heads will have to do… So, once again, if he knew how to get in touch with me now, I would expect an email from Mr. Shilling… 

And I found this on Fortune.com… it was Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan doing an interview and he said, ” ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it”…  Was it just last week or the week before that I highlighted that former Treasury Sec. Paulson said that we need to address the debt problem now and develop “A Plan B”…  Well, these two quotes play together nicely in the sand box anyway… 

All the Central Banks that met last week left their rates unchanged…  The Bank of Canada, The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel…  Speaking of Central Banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a statement on Friday saying that rising inflation will require the RBA to hike rate… There was nothing that said when they will hike rates, just that a rate hike is in the cards…And the A$ responded to that talk, as buyers wanted to get in before the rate hike happens… The A$ ended the week at .7205

I would like to see kiwi take a flyer too… I don’t know what’s holding it back but with a rise in Commodities led by Oil, The A$ and kiwi should be looking to rise too… 

The euro has been traded the way I thought it should be… With the dollar getting sold, the euro is getting bought… Not like Gold, but it’s getting bought and ended the week at 1.1733… 

The good folks at Gata sent me a note on Friday, let’s listen in… “The U.S. national debt has now surpassed the size of the U.S. economy, a historic threshold that hasn’t been crossed since the conclusion of World War II

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today showed that the national debt held by the public reached $31.27 trillion as of March 31, while nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated at $31.22 trillion for the 12-month period ending in March.”

Chuck again… this is really becoming a major problem folks… and I’m afraid that in the end, the Gov’t will come to those of us who have no debt, to bail out the debtors…  I certainly hope not… But my spider sense is tingling when I think about this… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the ISM (manufacturing ) index for this month and it was better than the avg bear coming in at 52.7… Remember that any number above 50 equals expansion…  This data set had been below 50 for so long that I had forgotten was a number above 50 looked like!

The Cupboard today has the latest reading of Factory Orders…  It will be interesting to see if this latest run of stronger data reports carries on today… 

To recap… The dollar is back to its underlying weak trend, and Chuck was surprised as to how swiftly the dollar got sold… Jamie Dimon tells us there will be a Bond Crisis… and Gary Shilling tells us that we will see a recession and a stock market plunge before year end…  And the RBA says that inflation is rising so they will be required to hike rates soon… 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, I mentioned it above as to how all the market’s attention has been shifted to Oil… Well, this article in Reuters.com talks about all the things that are influenced by the rising price of Oil and can be found here: How the Iran war is driving up the cost of your shopping cart

Or, here’s your snippet: “A surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war is rippling through global supply chains for common consumer goods, making materials like chemicals and plastics more expensive and pushing up manufacturing and transportation costs.

The European price of PET plastic used in soda bottles and other food packaging was 15.4% higher in mid-March than a year earlier, according to data from industry publication Plastics Information Europe (PIE). In North America polyethylene was about 29% higher year-on-year in March, according to estimates from Baird.

Most plastics are made from oil or natural gas processed into chemical building blocks and then converted into polymers which are used to make wrappings and tubs for products like detergents, as well as polyester fabric for clothing.

The egg itself is produced biologically by hens and contains no petrochemical inputs, although fossil fuels are indirectly involved via fertilizer and feed production.

Most conventional tampons contain petrochemical‑derived components such as polypropylene, polyethylene, or polyester in covers, strings, or applicators.

Chocolate is primarily made from biological ingredients (cocoa, sugar, milk fats) and does not inherently require petrochemical inputs, although some brands may add synthetic emulsifiers.

Bath tissue is primarily produced from wood‑based cellulose fibres rather than petrochemical polymers, making it a biogenic, pulp‑derived product.

Most toothpaste formulations directly use petrochemical‑derived surfactants, humectants (e.g. sorbitol), polymers, and preservatives such as sodium lauryl sulfate and polyethylene glycol.

For common grocery items, packaging of any type – plastic, paper or glass – typically represents 5% to 15% of a product’s manufacturing cost, according to specialised consultancy MAT.

The average price of all groceries tracked by data firm Nielsen IQ and sold in U.S. stores, from Walmart to CVS pharmacies, rose 2.9% from a year before in the four weeks from the start of the conflict to March 28. 

Chuck again… This article goes on and on about all the things affected by Oil so if you have the time, go ahead and check it out…

Market prices 5/4/2026: American Style: A$ .7186, kiwi .5887, C$ .7350, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2760, European Style: rand 16.7373, krone 9.2629, SEK 9.2693, forint 310.95, zloty 3.6395, koruna 20.8429, RUB 75.47, yen 157.09, sing 1.2759, HKD 7.8329, INR 95.08, China 6.8289, peso 17.48, BRL 4.9555, BBDXY 1.194, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.87, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $73.56, Platinum $1,959.00, Palladium $1,499.00, Copper $5.87, and Gold… $4,562… 

That’s it for today… Yesterday was the Birthday of one of our good friends… Toni Moody… Happy Birthday month, Toni! No Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ll be visiting my oncologist, who will go over the scans I had on Saturday… Spoiler Alert, they didn’t show any new cancer…  There was a baby shower for Grace on Saturday, it was good, albeit briefly, to see all the neighborhood ladies all dressed up…  Some of them wanted to know about the scans, but at that time I knew nothing!  And so, I told them that…  Alex and Grace stopped by last night, I love it when the kids drop by… The Strawbs take us to the finish line today with their great song: Autumn..  (the Strawbs were the second rendition of the Strawberry Alarm Clock, oh you never heard of them either?  Sorry) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself…

Chuck Butler

• the war goes on, strait is closed and the dollar rallies on Wed.
• Powell’s last meeting as chairman

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals received some clutch hits on Wednesday night and beat Pittsburgh, 5-4… It took a game saving catch, robbing a homer to finally put the Buccos down… I wasn’t allowed to eat on Monday, and it was difficult to do, but I made it…  Tomorrow evening, the folks at EverBank, and other banks that used to work on the trade desk with me, will gather at my local watering hole… I am ready!  Tommy James and the Shondells greet me this morning with their song: Crystal Blue Persuasion…. 

This dollar trading is really getting on my nerves… The war goes on, so… The dollar rallies and yesterday it ended with the BBDXY at 1,202, up 10 index points… OUCH! Now, that’s going to leave a mark! The annual return for the dollar, which had been as low at -8%, is now just -1.6%…  

And with the war still hanging on, and more importantly to the asset classes, is that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut down… And that means that Gold & Silver got sold again in a “risk off” trade… Gold lost $ 52  to close at $4,549, and Silver lost $1.75 to close at $71.45… The damage that’s been done to the metals is really beginning to show wear ….  How low can they go?   With the SPTs showing up each day to make sure that the metals have a rotten day, I can’t even garner an idea of how low they can go…. 

The price of Oil is kicking tail and taking names later, as it closed yesterday at $109… There’s nothing other than ending the war and opening the Strait that’s going to stand in the Oil price’s rise…   And the 10-year continues to add to its yield, as yesterday it closed with a 4.43% yield… 

The FOMC left rates unchanged yesterday. As Jerome Powell led his final FOMC meeting be steps down as Chairman next month…  He’s not going away, as he’s staying on the Board of the Fed until all his legal problems are resolved…  The FMOC held rates steady but with the highest level of dissent since 1992… The natives were restless, as they see inflation rising and they’ll be to blame when inflation is rolling higher and higher…  

In The overnight markets last night… This surprised me greatly… The dollar got sold overnight, and the BBDXY lost 7 index points, thus basically taking out yesterday’s huge upswing for the dollar… I’m looking all over the internet for the skinny on this dollar selling, but coming up empty… I’m sure there will be something to talk about a bit later this morning…  So, the euro is back above 1.17 and the rest of the currencies have been awakened from their slumbers… 

And Gold & Silver are back on the buying table… Gold is up $52 and Silver is up $1.75 to start our day today…  It’s as if the war is over and the strait is open again… Or more like it, the traders just realized what they were doing and decided to reverse it and bring it back to reality…. 

That’s probably what’s going on… I’ll keep my ear to the ground though… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and starts today at $106… Still, quite high… And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield slip a bit overnight and starts today with a 4.39% yield… 

Well, the FOMC meeting yesterday must have been rollicking…  Here’s CNBC’s thoughts on the meeting: “However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn amid a groundswell of officials who opposed messaging that further rate cuts could be ahead. Amid expectations for a routine vote to hold the benchmark funds rate steady, the FOMC instead was split along 8-4 lines, with officials expressing different reasons for their vote.

The last time four FOMC members dissented was in October 1992.”

Chuck again…  Well, the Bank of Canada left their internal rate unchanged yesterday…  And today we’ll see the Bank of England and European Central Bank leave rate unchanged… I don’t know what these Central Banks and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel are waiting for… Do they need an engraved invitation to hike rates to offset this rising inflation? 

I guess they do… Well, don’t look at me, I’m not going to send them an engraved invitation to hike rates!  

In other news… The UAE is going to leave OPEC… Is this a problem for the group? I think so… Here’s Bloomberg.com with their thought on this subject: “The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC next month, in a significant blow to the group that raises questions about its future at a time when the industry is grappling with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war.”

I think that had a bit to do with the price of Oil’s rise yesterday… 

I read yesterday that one of the reasons that the price of Gas is so high here in the U.S. even with the fact that we are energy independent, is that the U.S. is sending Oil to countries that need it desperately… While I don’t like to have to pay $4 a gallon for gas, I can see the Oil Company’s motive (higher price for their Oil), but I don’t have to like it!

The euro is dragging the Petrol Currencies down… The Petrol Currencies like the ruble, real, and krone, should be on a big rally right now but the euro’s fall from the 1.17 handle was causing weakness in each of the Petrol Currencies…  So, the dollar strength played here too… But that’s over for at least one session…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Durable Goods Orders, and they did indeed recover from Feb’s -1.4% and came in at 1.2%…  So, for the year they are basically flat…  Hopefully, the trend is for them to continue to recover, but we’ll have to wait-n-see…

Today’s Data Cupboard is chock-full-o-data today… Personal Income and Spending will start us off, along with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the PCE index, and the leading Indicators for Feb… Isn’t that an oxymoron? They are “leading Indicators” that are from 2 months ago.. I’m just asking….

To recap… the war goes on, and so does the rally in the dollar… and the weakness in Gold & Silver…  Well, at least it did, until last night… Powell chaired his last meeting as chairman of the FOMC yesterday when they left rates unchanged… Chuck wants to know what they are waiting for with inflation rising… And the UAE is leaving OPEC…  Chuck believes it’ll be a BIG Deal…

For What It’s Worth… Yesterday, I included a quote from Ray Dalio as he was telling people that they needed to own Gold… Well, today I have a whole article from Ray Dalio stating the same stuff, but this time with some meat to his statement, and it can be found here: ‘Gold Is Money’: Billionaire Ray Dalio Urges Investors To Put 5–15% Into Gold As Iran War Threatens 20% of Global Oil Supply | IBTimes UK

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the conflict involving Iran enters its ninth week, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a clear message to global investors. In times of uncertainty, he says, gold remains one of the most reliable stores of value.

Speaking in a recent interview, Dalio warned that the ongoing war is reshaping financial and geopolitical stability. He advised that investors should consider allocating between 5 and 15 per cent of their portfolios to gold.

A War With Global Consequences

The conflict has already begun to disrupt key global supply chains. At the centre of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

Berenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds EntirelyRead moreBerenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds Entirely

Before the war, the narrow passage handled roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil. Since hostilities escalated, access has been severely restricted. This has raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions and sustained pressure on energy prices. Oil markets have reacted sharply. Prices have surged this year, reflecting both reduced supply and growing uncertainty over how long the disruption may last.

Dalio noted that control over the strait will be a decisive factor in how the conflict unfolds. He also pointed to broader concerns within the US, including rising fuel costs and political pressures linked to domestic elections.

Dalio’s argument rests on a simple premise. Gold is not just a commodity. It is, in his words, a form of money. He described gold as one of the oldest and most trusted stores of value.”

Chuck Again… thank you Ray, you are a gem in my book… 

Market Prices 4/30/2026: American Style: A$ .7150, kiwi .5863, C$ .7325, euro 1.1712, sterling 1.3526, Swiss $1.2722, European Style: rand 16.5109, krone 9.3117, SEK 9.2513, forint 311.42, zloty 3.6391, koruna 20.8159, RUB 74.50, yen 156.95, sing 1.2755, HKD 7.8339, INR 94.91, China 6.8275, peso 17.50, BRL 4.9969, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.56, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $73.80, Platinum $1,957.00, Palladium $1,514.00, Copper $5.98, and Gold… $4,642

That’s it for today… Well, it’s the end of April… it wasn’t as rainy and cold as last April, but from the weather app May looks like it will take April’s place as a rainy month… UGH!  On Saturday, I go for my scans… While there’s a baby shower going at the house for Grace…  (Alex’s wife)  I was up nearly all-night last night, don’t know why, just couldn’t sleep…  Cardinals come home to play the mighty Dodgers this weekend… I’m not so sure they are ready to play such a mighty team… But games go on… Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Out In The Country… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Throwing the dollar a life line…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I got through Monday and Tuesday and now I wait to see if I have a problem…  My scans on Monday got postponed to this weekend, as the prep for the scope on Tuesday was interfering… it was a rainy day yesterday, although I didi get out side to read right after coming home from the hospital… You’ve got to deal with the rain to enjoy the sunshine! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great song: Twilight Zone…

The war continues, so.. The dollar gained both on Monday and Tuesday with the BBDXY gaining 2 points each day… I continue to say that this isn’t the way the asset classes should trade.. With the dollar being bought and metals getting sold… But it is what it is…  

The price of Gold got sold $1.12 to end the day at $4,596, and Silver got sold $2.46 to end the day at $73.10.. I read a report the other day where the writer was saying that “Gold isn’t dead, it’s just being sold after over a 50% rise in the last year”…  Well, that might settle down some people, but not me! I just don’t see why Gold is being treated like this… But the SPTs don’t make this any easier for Gold & Silver that’s for sure!

The price of Oil ventured over $100 for a brief time yesterday before settling back at $99…  Very close to $100, but not $100… I can see the PPT working their magic…   Oh, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher to end the day at 4.35% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the war goes on, so does the dollar… The BBDXY gained 1 index point overnight, and starts today at 1,198… UGH! I wanted to mention the dollar swaps that Treasury Sec. Bessent announced yesterday… This is a nothing more than attempt to throw a life saver ring to the dollar and return wide distribution of the dollar… Good luck with that Treasury Sec.!  

Gold & Silver see more selling this morning… I just don’t get it.. Gold & Silver should be roaring right now, with inflation rising and geopolitical problems by the bushelful… But that’s not happening… I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section this morning, so be patient young Jedi, you’ll get there eventually… 

The price of Oil has risen above $100 again this morning and is trading at $103 to start the day…  And the 10-year Treasury bumped higher to trade with a 4.36% yield this morning… 

Longtime reader will recall me saying that I enjoy reading Ray Dalio…  He’s written a book that I’ve read about the history of trends, markets etc. and it’s good!  Well, he had this to say yesterday, “Let’s not be naive, ok, and say: Oh, we’re breaking the rule-based system,” Dalio said in an interview with Fortune at the WEF (1). “It’s gone. It’s going.”

Dalio was referring to the current global balance of power between nations, which has hinged on relatively predictable U.S. foreign policy.”

Chuck Again….  Ray Dalio goes on to tell readers that in times like this now, that investors should be buying Gold…  Yea, I agree… But we can lead a horst to water but not make him drink it! 

Bill Bonner was wondering yesterday in his letter, why hasn’t the stock market bubble popped yet?  Here’s Bill… “By almost all measures, US asset prices are in a bubble. Based on Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratios, for example, the S&P 500 has been this high only one time in history — at the height of the Dot.com bubble. But back then, things were looking up. The US was not at war…and the feds were actually running a budget surplus.”  

Chuck again… I say it all the time… this stock market is crazy! But, its rally lives on, and on and on… Is this an everlasting Bubble? It certainly looks like it could be….   (I figure that since I said that I jinxed stocks, so we’ll see…)

The FOMC meets today to discuss interest rates… What to do, what to do? Inflation is rising, but the White House wants lower interest rates, so much so they nominated the POTUS’s friend to chair the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and influence the rate decisions…  I afraid that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged again and rile the POTUS and the markets that are looking for a rate cut….  But a rate cut is not in the cards… Not with inflation rising and the future of inflation unknown at this time, because of the war, I just don’t see the FOMC cutting rates right now… 

That won’t be good for Gold & Silver… but then higher rates would certainly give the naysayers the food they need to sell metals…  I’m just saying…  Not that the metals can’t rally in high interest rates (remember the 70’s?) it just makes things more difficult…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the March Durable Goods Orders, and they are expected to recover April’s negative -1.4% print… So, we’ll see how good the forecasters are… Or, would they be in the same arena with the folks that forecast the weather?  There are some housing reports, but I normally don’t get into those too much… 

But nothing is more important to the markets than the FOMC meeting…  Of course, I don’t feel like the FOMC is worth a plug nickel, but that doesn’t stop the markets from genuflecting over them! 

In other countries… Greece is no longer the most in debt Country in Europe…  Word came last week that Greek debt is estimated to decline to around 137% of gross domestic product this year from 145.9% in 2025, two senior officials told Reuters. By contrast, Italy expects its debt to peak at 138.6% in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% of GDP in 2025, under the Treasury’s multi-year budget plan published this week. That makes Italy the most indebted country in Europe! 

Remember when the talk about currencies was all about the PIGS?  That stood for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain… Spain isn’t far behind Italy and Greece at this point with regards to indebtedness…. To these countries, it was Godsend when the Eurozone came along…. And made everyone look at the Whole of the Eurozone instead of individual countries… I recall when I had to know the economics of each individual country to trade their respective currencies…  Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end; we’d sing forever and a day…  No! Wait! Why’d you go there, Chuck? 

The Bank of England (BOE) will meet tomorrow and the thoughts sifting through the newswires is that the BOE will leave rates unchanged as they wait to see the possible effects of the Iran War. 

And the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet on Thursday with the ECB leaving rates unchanged for the same reason as the BOE… 

To recap… The dollar is getting bought as the war continues… Gold is getting sold for the same reason… And the STPs are ganging up on Gold & Silver’s weakness… Lots of Central Bank rate meeting on the docket this week… More like a tempest in a teacup… But the markets being the markets, they treat it like wreck of the Hindenburg! 

For What It’s Worth…   As usual, the FWIW articles are taking a back seat to the articles on the War and Energy problems, but I did find this little ditty on the out look for Gold & Silver, that is not a bright spot, but tells it like it is and can be found here: ‘Gold remains the strategic allocation, while silver remains the tactical opportunity’ – Saxo Bank’s Hansen | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Oil-led inflation risks, not geopolitics, are driving near-term weakness in precious metals, and while gold’s pullback looks cyclical rather than structural, silver’s vulnerability to industrial demand and investment flows makes it more fragile, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen noted that “rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, firmer inflation expectations and a renewed higher-for-longer view on US interest rates have together created a more challenging short-term environment for non-yielding assets,” which have driven gold prices to a three-week low.

“With Brent crude climbing above USD 111, the market’s focus remains squarely on the inflationary impact of higher energy costs at a time when AI-driven investment spending continues to support US growth, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates for now,” he said. “Adding to the near-term uncertainty, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings on Wednesday, the same day the FOMC meets to assess the economic outlook.”

Hansen said the metals’ direction will be dictated by the energy market for the time being, and he pointed to the potential reopening of the Strait and the subsequent drop in oil prices as “the biggest short term upside catalyst for the metals.”

He wrote that skyrocketing oil prices and rising inflation are strengthening the dollar and delaying rate cuts. “However, while the conflict has become a near-term hurdle, it does not represent a roadblock,” he said. “The structural drivers that powered gold’s rally over the past two years remain firmly in place and, in several cases, have strengthened.”

Chuck Again… yes, it’s the same war= dollar strength, Gold weakness mantra… But I like the part about the structural drivers still being in place… That’s something to hang my hat on!

Market Prices 4/29/2026: American Style: A$ .7158, kiwi .5858, C$ .7308, euro 1.1706, sterling 1.3509, Swiss $1.2672, European Style: rand 16.5919, krone 9.2868, SEK 9.2656, forint 311.11, zloty 3.6324, koruna 20.8227, RUB 75.01, yen 159.34, sing 1.2775, HKD 7.8366, INR 94.55, China 6.8335, peso 17.39, BRL 4.9741, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 98.69, Oil $103.39, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $71.91, Platinum $1,919.00, Palladium $1,475, Copper $5.97, and Gold… $4,571

That’s it for today…  Well, it certainly hasn’t been a week of sunshine and seashells for yours truly, but I’m still here so there’s that! Well, I’m not leaking blood from any place in my body, so now the doctor is at a loss as to why I became so anemic, and now I’m not…  I mean it was so bad that I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without feeling like I was ready to collapse! But now… no problemo! And I think baseball is strange… my body is strange!  My beloved Cardinals won in Pittsburgh last night… They hit the ball! Sure, makes a difference when you hit!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: I’m A Man… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday
• to many “unknowns” in the markets

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I know, I know I said on Thursday last week that there would be no Pfennig today and tomorrow… Well, I had forgotten to look at my calendar at the time I was supposed to show up at the hospital, and when I found out it wasn’t the first scan of the day, like usual, I knew I would be able to write to you this morning…  No lucking out tomorrow, as I’m still scheduled for a scope first thing…  Booker G. And the MGs greet me this morning with their instrumental son: Green Onions…

What a glorious weekend here in my river city… It was true Chamber of Commerce weather all weekend and was outside all weekend!  The Strait of Hormuz is still closed thus shutting out 20% of Global Oil shipments along with shipments of fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid…  And as long as the Strait is closed, the war will continue, and that means more dollar strength and Gold weakness… 

The dollar closed last Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY, which was just a smidgen lower than it closed on Thursday… Gold & Silver found a bid, not a real strong one, but a bid nonetheless… Gold finished last week up $17 to close the week at $4,708… Silver finished last week up a whopping 25-cents to close the week @ $75.56…  

The price of Oil closed up for the week at $95, but the “wet price” of deliverable Oil is really about $150-$200…  I’m still wondering how much longer the difference between the paper price and the “wet price” can continue on…. 

And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield blip upward on Friday and ended the week with 4.32% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… in a twist of things going on… The dollar got sold overnight….What the heck is going on here? Oh well, it Is what it is. The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,193…  The price of Oil remained trading with a $95 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw a slip of 1 BP to start our day/ week with a 4.31% yield…

Gold starts the day down $1 buck… Silver starts up 34-cents… So, the Gold down mark is easily turned around, and should as the day goes on , if… if the dollar continues to weaken from the overnight markets… 

Well… recall about 10 days ago, when I told you that the Consumer Sentiment had a preliminary report for April that showed a deep dive in the Sentiment? Well, the final report finally hit the wires on Friday and came in a bit better and Yahoo Finance.com had this to say about the report: “The University of Michigan’s final April sentiment index dropped to 49.8 this month from 53.3 in March. While that was slightly improved from the preliminary reading, it remained the lowest in data back to 1978.”

Chuck again.. My friend, Dennis Miller, sent me an email on Friday that referenced an article about DXY, and how the writer of the article said that it was not good and needed to be repaired…  Well, as you might recall, that’s what I told you a few years ago when I started using the BBDXY as my index to see how the dollar was doing…   

The BBDXY is a group of countries that are the best trading partners of the U.S.  and unlike the DXY, THE BBDXY isn’t dominated by the euro, nor does it exclude countries like China and Mexico as the DXY does… 

Ok… I keep thinking that the SPTs are fading away…  But no such luck, eh? Well, they are fading but not away right now… The shorts in Silver at 100 days of production held by the SPTs… And the shorts in Gold are down to 52 days of production… For longtime readers they might recall me telling them that at one time the number 180 for Silver and over 80 for Gold…  So, they are fading away… Just not fast enough for me!

There’s not much to talk about regarding the currencies, and they are being moved by the dollar and the goings on in the Gulf…  Like I’ve said on numerous occasions: War and Strait Closed= dollar strength, and Peace and Strait Open= dollar weakness, Gold strength….   

And we’ve got War and Strait Closed at this moment, and so we know that the dollar will be stronger… So, don’t abandon your portfolio diversification or you Gold Holdings… This will eventually come to an end (the war) and when it does, the dollar will return to the underly weak trend, and Gold will climb higher once again… 

But, the longer it goes on, and it will go on longer than most think, the more you’ll have to batten down the hatches… 

We’ve also got a FOMC Meeting this week on Wednesday…  Yes, the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel will meet and discuss interest rates, which everyone and their brother think that they will remain at current levels… I saw where people are swallowing the line about how Gold will weaken if interest rates dont’ get lowered… Yep, they are swallowing that hook, line and sinker…   

What’s a FOMC going to do? They are backed into a corner, and there’s no way out of this mess for them… So, they’ll just remain Steady Eddie with rates and see where everything falls out or into…  There are just too many “unknowns” out there with the war and everything else that banks and hedge funds, etal, are in a “risk off” mentality, and I doubt anything is going to move the needle here until… Oh, you almost had me reveal what I think is going to move the needle… But, I really don’t have an answer for you… end the war, bring everyone home and start to rebuild your arsenal… That’s the only thing I can think of that would move the needle… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard ended the last week on empty, and starts this week on empty… Tomorrow, we’ll actually see some real economic data so, get ready for The Feb Case/Shiller Home price index and the March Durable Goods Orders come on Wednesday… I’ll be back on Wednesday with a brand-new Pfennig! 

To Recap… The dollar ended the week on a down note, but just by a smidgen. Gold ended the week up $17 and Silver up 25-centw… The war continues on, so Chuck thinks that we had better batten down the hatches and wait for the Good Witch Glinda to tell us that it’s all clear… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, with every writing about the war and all the other stuff involved with it, there aren’t many FWIW articles out there… I did fine this one on Zerohedge.com  it’s about the U.S. Defaults in the past and how they will repeat themselves now, and it can be found here: 39 Going On 40 (Trillion) | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: ” A little over two weeks ago, on April 7th, the U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion. Since then, another $150 billion has already been added to the ledger. While major news outlets missed the milestone, every trillion is worthy of mention.

America is now $39,000,000,000,000 in debt—yes, $39 trillion. It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months… Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget.

Almost three years ago, I wrote about the U.S. debt crossing the $32 trillion and $33 trillion marks. If there’s one economic projection to stand by, it’s this: within the next several months, the $40 trillion debt level will be breached.

Looking back at the last 200 years, or even the last three, it becomes clear that debt growth is not linear; the curve is moving up exponentially.

While the future is always uncertain, the trajectory is unmistakable.

One reason stands above the rest: the interest on the debt itself.

For context, net interest outlays were equivalent to 22.1% of total revenues through Q1 of FY 2026. Even if the national debt were frozen at $39 trillion today, the interest payments alone would be staggering. With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering between 4% and 4.5% at the time of writing, and annual interest surpassing $1 trillion, solvency should be a real concern.

Naturally, one might argue that with a Federal Reserve, solvency is not a concern. However, that’s the crux of the matter. America technically won’t become insolvent thanks to the Fed’s ability to create money (literally) out of thin air, and so, the final outcome is certain. Expanding debt and the accompanying expansion of the money supply are features of the system. History shows that monetary inflation, currency debasement, and the eventual crack-up boom are the recurring final outcomes.”

Chuck Again… I thank James Turk for his thoughts on our debt situation… 

Market Prices 4/27/2026: American Style: A$ .7157, kiwi .5913, C$ .7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3567, Swiss $1.2753, European Style: rand 16.4747, krone 9.2733, SEK 9.1875, forint 309.16, zloty 3.6135, koruna 20.7262, RUB 74.95, yen 159.15, sing 1.2730, HKD 7.8371, INR 94.19, China 6.8218, peso 17.35, BRL 4.9813, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.82, Oil $95.37, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $75.95, Platinum $2,035.00, Palladium $1,504.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,795

That’s it for today… I have to say that this past weekend was the best weather we’ve had in Month of Sundays! It was spectacular!  My beloved Cardinals got swept a home last weekend… The games were close and could have been a sweep by the home team! But that was not to be… baseball… Now they travel to Pittsburgh for our first look at the Pirates… Well, I’m in the hands of the doctors at the hospital the next two days…. I sure hope they treat me nicely!  HA!  The Rolling Stones take us to the finish line today with their song: Dead Flowers…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Wednesday
• Kevin Warsh shows off his media training….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Our Chamber of Commerce Day yesterday saw the whole watering hole gang here to watch the game with me outside… The Cardinals lost the game, but did come home from a road trip with a 4-2 record… So, there was a silver lining there…. We’re expecting another Chamber of Commerce Day here before the rain comes on Friday… But there is no game for me to watch today, so I’ll spend the day outside reading…. The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: On The Border…

Well, the war drags on, which means the dollar got bought yesterday… Not much, but enough to move the needle on the BBDXY…  Again, though, the dollar is a very tight trading range right now with no real conviction to sell or buy it… Just too many “unknowns”… And I taught you all many years ago that the markets don’t like “unknowns”…. 

Gold couldn’t find terra firma as it started out the day up $38, but that fizzled out soon after the SPTs showed up to short the heck out of the metal…. Gold ended the day down $19 to close at $4,740… But in a strange twist of trading, Silver rallied… Yes, I said that right, Silver did rally $1.54 to close the day at $77.83

The price of Oil continues to ratchet higher again, after last week’s misplaced euphoria that the war would be over soon, the price of Oil ended the day trading with a $93 handle… 

And the 10-year’s yield rose to end the day at 4.31%

In the overnight markets last night… More of the same overnight, folks… How low can you go? Do the limbo!  I recall as kids, me and my sisters would play that game… I was never really good at it… My oldest sister, Brenda, was very good at bending her body to get under the limbo pole… 

The dollar remained trading 1,197 in the BBDXY, but the euro did slip under the 1.17 figure overnight… so, that means that the dollar did see some buying, but it just wasn’t shown in the BBDXY… 

Gold starts our day today down $6… So, that’s a figure that can easily be turned around, so… come on you physical buyers get going!  Silver starts the day down $1.68… So much for Silver’s rally yesterday, that has been wiped out to start our day… Copper is a metal that I’ve touched on from time to time…

Did you know that sulfuric acid is used to get Copper out of the ground and separate it from Silver?  And guess what’s not getting to the Copper miners? You guessed it… Sulfuric Acid… shipped from the Middle East…  So, that means that supply of Copper is going to suffer and a byproduct of this lack of Copper mining will be to damage the Silver production, which has already been in negative production for years….  Uh-Oh!  

This could be the harbinger of a Silver rally, folks… I’m just saying… 

Well, unless you are living under a rock, you know that the new candidate for Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Kevin Warsh is being drilled by Congress… Hey! He’s the President’s nominee, how else did anyone think he would be treated?   But Mr. Warsh out his best media training to work, by redirecting the question, and dissing the current Chairman, Powell, for not being on top of inflation when the time came…. 

I remember when I went through media training and was taught how to redirect the subject that you didn’t feel like talking about… So, I caught it, bang! 

There will be no Pfennig on Monday and Tuesday next week… So, this is the last one until next Wednesday…. I have scans due on Monday morning, at the hospital, and another scope on Tuesday morning… I know, I know I shouldn’t have backed them up together like this, but… you take what’s given to you and you don’t ask questions….  At least that’s my mantra on these appointments!

I had a dear reader send me a note and suggested that I use a doppelganger of myself, and let AI write the Pfennig on days when I’m not available…  Good idea, but I’m afraid I’ll have pass for now… I’m not a fan of AI right now… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard was barren yesterday, but come back today with the usual Thursday data set, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  National ISM (manufacturing ) report… So, in my mind… no biggie…

To recap…  The war drags on, and the “unknowns” in the markets are causing very tight ranges for the dollar right now… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel nominee to be the new Chair, shows off his media training… But not to worry, Chuck saw it immediately! 

For What It’s Worth… This is a bit different today, as I have an article that friend, Rich Checkan, put together for his firm: Asset Strategies, and it tells of how Gold is now at cheaper prices and can be found here: “Gold Prices Down Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold has pulled back again early this week, as the dollar and oil prices climbed when the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel and Iran threatened to retaliate.

The news strengthened the dollar hiking it to a one-week high, pressuring gold prices, as the yellow metal became more expensive for holders of other currencies. It also renewed concerns about persistent inflation and speculation that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged for some time.

Gold rose by 64% last year alone. In 2026, gold continued to rally until the Iran war started in late February, and spent March in a backslide of 11%. Prices rallied nearly 2% last week on an apparent easing of tensions, but Sunday’s escalation reversed the rebound.

The unstable ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire today, but this military conflict has been anything but predictable.

That makes now the right time to take advantage of another drop in spot prices.

While gold is below all-time highs again for now, the rapidly accelerating climb in spot prices over the past few years have made it a challenge for investors to get in on the ground floor, especially those who are just beginning to accumulate gold and build a diverse portfolio.

Many feared that the rally that drove gold and silver sky-high starting at the end of last year would mean they would be priced out of the market.

But this correctional period is once more offering an opportunity to buy gold at lower spot prices.”

Chuck Again…  yes, this is the buying opportunity at cheaper prices that all procrastinators has put off…  So, what are you waiting for?

Market Prices 4/23/2026: American Style: A$ .7150, kiwi .5887, C$ .7316, euro 1.1691, sterling 1.3506, Swiss $1.2746, European Style: rand 16.5068, krone 9.3318, SEK 9.2243, forint 312.25, zloty 3.6306, koruna 20.2297,  RUB 75.08, yen 159.56, sing 1.2758, HKD 7.8333, INR 94.11, China 6.8333, peso 17.36, BRL 4.9655, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 98.67, Oil $93.29, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $76.14, Platinum $2,036.00, Palladium $1,512.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,734

That’s it for today… After today, 3 of the next 6 days have rain in the forecast… UGH! I realize it’s still April, and April Showers bring May Flowers… And what do May Flowers bring?   ….. Pilgrims! HA! I think I’ve told that one before, but it’s been awhile, so….  The baseball season has started a little discombobulated…  As the two faves in the NL East have the worst records! And all the teams in the NL Central are above .500… It’s a good thing the season is 162 games, it’s not too late to get things right…. Sam & Dave take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Soul Man (We used to play this song in my first band, The Soul Wonders Revue) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler