Author: admin

• the dollar gets smoked yesterday
• Chuck Opines…

Good Day,,, and a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I’m sitting out on a deck this morning, it’s dark out so I can’t see the lake yet, but the sun will be rising soon, so there’s that… My beloved Cardinals won last night, but we were too busy sitting out on the deck singing along with my phone’s music, that we forgot about the game!  Oh well, worse things could’ve happened! Procol Harum greets me this morning with their song: Conquistador…

The dollar got smoked yesterday and not on a Big Green Egg… The BBDXY lost  7 index points and closed the day at 1,188… The new weak dollar trend is in place, now, so buckle up buttercups, this is going to be a long journey for the dollar downward… And that will make the U.S. Gov’t happy, for they want so badly to get exports running, and to have a cheaper dollar is their goal… They may tell us that they believe in a strong dollar while having their fingers crossed behind their backs… I’m just saying…

Gold was on a tear yesterday morning, as we drove down HWY 44, and I told my friend, Rick, that Gold was nearing $3,700, and that Silver was nearing $43…  And, then they weren’t… The SPTs came in and nixed those moves higher, with arms full of short paper contracts and Gold’s gain on the day was reduced to a couple of bucks gain on the day…  Gold closed yesterday at $3,692… And Silver saw the same kind of trading that Gold did, and end the day at $42.50…  Those wily ba$%#$^W’s.  I was taught as a young man to not hate… especially people, but in this case I think even my mother would approve of my dislike for price manipulators!

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day trading with a $64 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield was ratched downward to end the day with a 4.01% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw a bit of buying… I’ve told you before and I’ll tell you again, the dollar’s weak trend is not a ONE WAY STREET! So, the BBDXY is up one index point overnight… The euro is trading above 1.18 this morning… I’ve also reitterated to you more times than I can count, that the euro is the offset currency of the dollar… So, when you really want to know how the dollar is doing just look at the euro…  

But, with the dollar getting some buying this morning, the currencies have backed off their lofty figures from yesterday’s close in the U.S. I do want to point out that the Chinese renmibi is really on a tear, and sits this morning at 7.1045…  That’s move yesterday was the one of the largest moves by the Peoples Bank of China I can recall…  So, the currencies’ premature death has been greatly exaggerated!   

Gold has been sold down the river overnight and this morning in the early trading. Gold is down $22 to start our day today, and on “FOMC Rate Cut Day” too! The SPTs had to make sure Gold got a rought start ahead of the rate cut announcement this afternoon. And Silver is down over $1 to start our day today… I’d say that the SPTs are really working diligently to get these metals looking rough today, ahead of the rate cut announcement… 

I read a piece on Monday afternoon that got me thinking… Uh-Oh, I hear you saying, here he goes again!  Well, pardon me! But this needs to be said… The article was about when you price everything that we use in Gold… The items are cheaper, and we actually have deflation going on…   Of course we don’t use Gold to price these things any longer, for if we did….  Ahhh….  Ok, sit back and let me tell you a story and wrap it up in a nice bow… 

This from Bill Bonner’s private research newsletter: “Lyndon Johnson famously overspent on ‘guns and butter.’ Especially the guns…and especially in Vietnam. The banks in Vietnam were relics of the French colonial empire. So, dollars piled up in Paris. And in 1971, the shrewd finance minister at the time, Valery Giscard d’Estaing, sent a French warship to New York to collect on America’s promise to redeem those dollars at 35 dollars per ounce of gold.

That was the proximate cause of Nixon’s August 15, 1971 proclamation ‘closing the gold window’ at the Treasury department and replacing the good-as-gold dollar with a piece of paper. And since the U.S. could ‘print’ as many pieces of paper as it wanted, it allowed politicians to approve bigger and bigger deficits and bigger and bigger ‘defense’ budgets, much of the money from which — captured by contractors, lobbyists, politicians, and think tanks — never left the Washington D.C. area.

And this same dollar, that financed the huge growth in debt and firepower, also gave the U.S. a new weapon. The Trump administration showed the world how the dollar could be used to bludgeon enemies and whip friends to keep them in line.”

Chuck again, and here’s where I opine…  Had we, as a country never gone off the Gold backing we would never be in the financial mess that we are in today… Yes, we would have gone a lot slower in the the new millenieum, but without all the debt and worries that have all time about paying the bills the country owes…  But, we’re not and we still have a $37 Trillion nut to deal with… I’ll say no more on this … now that is!

Well, today is the “FMOC Rate Cut Day”…  I’ll bust my buttons and send them flying across the room as attack darts if the Fed Heads keep rates unchanged today… I’m expecting a 25 Basis Points (1/4%) rate cut to be announced this afternoon.  The labor market is shambles, but a rate cut isn’t going to help that, in my humble opinion… The Fed Heads are bowing to pressure by the Sec. Treasury, and POTUS to cut rates now and 3 more times this year…. And they will be darned to keep the boys in D.C. In waiting any longer to get started…

But do you really think the Fed Heads will get to 3 more rate cuts this year? I doubt it, for by the time it’s the second time to cut rates, that inflation will be so strong, and that to cut rates again then, will be suicide for the economy, financials, and middle class… 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I also doubt that all that consumer debt that is being put on charge cards is going to see much of a drop of their interest rates on the debt, from the FOMC rate cut…  20% is what some of the cards are charging right now… You want it… pay cash or don’t buy it! That’s been my M. O. For as long as I can remember… 

The U.S Data Cupboard yesterday had Retail Sales, and you might recall me telling you on Monday that the BHI indicated that it would be a good one… And it was with Retail Sales rising .6% in August…  But what the bean counters don’t tell you is that most of that gain is from inflation…  Here’s the skinny from Zerohedge.com: “Online sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing..

Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline…

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY…   

Chuck again… Interesting, very interesting… 

To recap… The dollar got sold BIG TIME yesterday, and Chuck believes the new weak dollar trend is now in place… But the dollar is seeing a bit of buying this morning… no One Way Street here… Chuck talks about Gold this morning, you won’t want to have missed his opine…

For What It’s Worth… this article came to me from long time reader Bob… and it’s about something I’ve talked about previously, and that is that we’re heading to stagflation, and it can be found here: Threat of stagflation bears down on world’s largest economy as Federal Reserve decision looms – ABC News

Or, here’s your snippet:” The US Federal Reserve — the world’s largest central bank — is now less than 24 hours from announcing one of the most anticipated interest rate decisions of the year.

There are no prizes, though, for guessing what the bank will do.

An interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point is seen as likely by financial markets because the US economy is showing signs of weakness.

But here’s the problem: American inflationary pressures still linger.

And if the Fed — as it’s known — does cut interest rates, it could stimulate demand in everything from consumer goods to housing, and that could further stoke inflation, alongside tariff-induced inflation.

At the same time, employment growth has stalled, which may push unemployment higher.

The economic malaise is seeing the US dollar weaken and the price of gold soar to record highs.

It all has many analysts quite spooked.

“It’s telling me there’s uncertainty,” said Head of Macro Research at London City’s Ninety One, Sahil Mahtani.”

Chuck again… a longer article that I couldn’t include all of it here, so go to the link if you want more… 

Market Prices 9/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6677, kiwi .5982, C$ .7255, euro 1.1836, sterling 1.3647, Swiss $1.2609, European Style: rand 17.3770, krone 9.8167, SEK 9.2629, forint 329.55, zloty 3.5943, koruna 20.5591, RUB 83.02, yen 146.39, sing 1.2764, HKD 7.7757, INR 87.81, China 10.1041, peso 18.29, BRL 5.3050, BBDXY 1,189, Dollar Index 97.65, Oil $64.23, 10-year 4.02%, Silver $41.87, Platinum $1,372.00, Palladium $1,172.00, Copper $4.62, and Gold… $3,675…  

That’s it for today… the sun has come up, the lake is so calm now that it appears to be a sheet of ice… Very beautiful setting here on the deck… I could do this every day… in the summer that is… Winters are for the South for me! Out on the lake yesterday, it was much like the song the Boys of Summer… We had the lake to ourselves! No one else was out and we enjoyed the day immensely… The band Sweet take us to the finish line today with their song: Ballroom Blitz…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday last week
• The overnight markets are no respite for the dollar

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Summer returned to the St. Louis area for the past 5 days, and this week the temps will be quite hot again. That limits my time outside reading, but que sera, sera…  My beloved Cardinals finally beat the Brewers yesterday! 3-2…  They went a horrible 1-5 on the road trip… Sad, play…   Smoked some pork tenderloins on the Big Green Egg yesterday… YUMMY!  I don’t like where I have my outdoor cooking apparatuses, they are in the direct sun in the afternoon heat… But, I have nowhere else to put them, so I bake while I cook outside in the summer…  Gerry Raferty greets me this morning with his song: Baker Street… 

Well, last Thursday 9/11, that I missed writing, was certainly interesting.. But first, there was a disturbance in the field on Wednesday, when PPI (Wholesale Inflation) was engineered to show that wholesale prices had dropped in August… The Annual PPI also showed slippage…  Ever wonder how the bean counters can manipulate this data set?  Well, I’m sure there are hedonic adjustments in there, but to put blankly, The just fudge the numbers to their liking… 

On Thursday, our second day of infamy for the country, that we should NEVER Forget…  The STUPID CPI held court over the markets and The STUPID CPI showed that inflation had risen .4% in August to a year-on-year rate of 2.9%…  And once again, I ask the question, “Why would we as a country, cut interest rates now?” These rates of inflation are buggered downward by the Hedonic Adjustments. We all know that inflation is much higher right now, right? John Williams says if the bean counters calculated inflation the way it used to be calculated it would be closer to 10%…   

And don’t get me started on the Core CPI… The calc that takes out Food & Energy… as if we don’t use these two daily, right?  Well, The Core CPI showed a 3.1% year-on-year gain… 

The dollar got sold… Bonds were bought… Gold which had been down a lot in the early trading came back, along with Silver, as yet, another notch has been put in the rate cutter’s belt… Thursday saw the BBDXY lose 4 index points to end the day at 1,197, and bonds to lose 4 percentage points in yield on the day ,( bond price was higher), and Gold to come back from being down in the morning to almost getting back to its ending price the previous day. Gold finished Thursday at $3,635 and Silver finished the day at $41.59…  Oil was $62.24, and the 10-year was 4.03% yield… 

Friday brought us news that the U.S. government reported a $345 billion deficit for August, larger than expected…  One more month to go in the U.S.’s fiscal year that ends in Sept. I told you last week that we as a country were already on our way to $38 Trillion in debt… And this report plays well with that thought.  I have some more on the Deficit in the FWIW section today, so stay tuned.. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel… 

Gold finished the week up $8 to $3,645… And Silver kicked some tail and gained 61-cents to $42.25… I can’t believe the SPTs allowed Silver to cross over the $42 handle… Remember, the wolf is always at the Door….  The Dollar gained back an index point on Friday, and finished the week with the BBDXY at 1,198…  

The BBBDXY is down -8.33% ytd…  That means that the currencies have rallied so far this year VS the dollar… Remember the BBDXY is a gathering of the U.S. best trading partners’ currencies… Whereas the Dollar Index is so heavily weighted with euros that it gives a skewed picture of the Dollar’s overall performance…  Why is the Dollar Index so heavily weighted with euros, I hear you asking?  Because of all the legacy currencies that were converted to euros 26 years ago…  So, now you know! 

In the overnight markets last night…  there was additional dollar selling and the BBDXY starts our day/ week down 3 index points to 1,195… I still don’t know what was on the minds of the dollar bugs last Thursday when the dollar rallied, but that’s in our rear-view mirror now, so as my good friend and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter would say.. Onward and Upward! The weak dollar trend that I told you about a couple of weeks ago, was beginning is slow to start, but when the rate cuts come, and the dollar is getting debased, well… the weak dollar trend will be evident to all who watch it…  

Gold is down $6 to start our day/ week this morning… Looks like profit taking to me…  Silly geese… If you really want to take profits in your Gold, why not wait until Gold has reached the moon?  I’m just saying… Silver is also off to start our day / week this morning by 7-cents… Again, not SPTs, but simply profit taking, in my eye… 

The price of Oil has is trading with a $62 handle this morning, and the Fed Heads just won’t keep their hands out of the cookie jar, with regard to the 10-year Treasury’s yield… They continue to manipulate it to their liking…  Serenity NOW!  These Fed Heads are giving me a rash!  The 10-year’s yield sits at 4.05% to start our day / week this morning… 

The European Central Bank (ECB) left their internal rate unchanged last week, which was good for the euro… The euro finished the week above the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog off of the porch to chase the dollar down the street… 

Also last week, Mexico announced that they were going to apply 50% tariffs on China…  And China responded, this from Bloomber.com “China urged Mexico to “think twice” before levying tariffs, warning that any unilateral tariff increase would be seen as “appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying”. 

Chuck again, yes, China warned the Mexican Gov’t that the Chinese thought that Mexico was just doing that to appease the U.S….  That should have been enough saber rattling to get Mexico to back off… I guess we’ll see…

I found this on Zerohedge.com …. “U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added.”

Chuck again… job losses, higher prices, and a stock market that is overbought by miles… Yes, that would put me in a foul mood if someone asked me how confident I am about the economy… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week also had the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week, and they exploded higher to 263,000 (from 236,000 )… Finally, all those layoffs that businesses have been announcing, are starting to show up here… We also saw the Consumer Sentiment for so far this month on Friday, and it showed that it fell as I just wrote about above… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to print this from Tom Woods, email 9/11/2025… “You and I are demonized by media and cultural establishments that are at once sinister and low-IQ, the public is systematically lied to about matters of existential significance, we are taught to look upon our civilization with embarrassment and shame — and this is all so drearily predictable that we’ve almost come to think of it as normal.”

This quote from Tom Woods came in the same the letter where he talked about the assassination of Charlie Kirk…  If you read Tom Woods like I do daily…  You know what I’m talking about here, if you don’t…  Why wouldn’t you?  I’m just saying… 

And the Wall Street Journal had this on Friday: “American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math.”

Chuck again… no way that my darling is insufficient in math and reading, he’s so brilliant!  It’s the teacher’s fault, that’s who is to blame! But wait, here… Shouldn’t you as the parent be responsible for your child and their development? I’m just saying… 

I don’t know why I was compelled to include that last bit, other than to point out that the education system needs to be revised… Not every kid needs to go to college, no more student loans, and only kids that are brilliant go to college, and then those that can pay for their own way…   I’m going to tick off a lot of people with that last bit, but, Shoot Rudy, I can’t make all of the people happy, all of the time! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last Friday, had the Consumer Sentiment reading for the first two weeks of this month, and it showed that U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row, down from 58.2 to 55.4…  Apparently, the rising inflation was the cause of this drop…  And to think that a rate cut is coming, is preposterous to me… But not to the stock jockeys and the POTUS!

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have a couple of prints this week, to go along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday… Starting tomorrow we’ll see what kind of “back to school sales” helped Retail Sales….I would say that the BHI indicates to me that this could be a good print, because there hasn’t been a day that went by this last month, where a delivery of something wasn’t at our door… 

To recap…  Thursday saw Gold get sold, Friday saw Gold get bought… C’mon, what’s it gonna be boy? The data last week was not what you put down for a strong resilient economy, so there’s that…  The ECB left rates unchanged late last week, it’s about time they quit cutting them in Chuck’s mind…  And what’s a mother to do with their falling behind in math and reading child?

For What It’s Worth…  I found this on moneymetals.com and it talks about the how the tariffs revenue won’t even begin to cover the monthly deficit garnered by the U.S. Gov’t, and it can be found here: Another Massive Budget Deficit in August as Tariff Revenue Can’t Fill the Hole

Or, here’s your snippet: “Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit.

So much for import duties paying for the government.

That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem.

The Trump administration ran a $344.79 billion budget deficit in August. That was about $35 billion lower than last August. However, it was still the second-highest budget deficit charted this year.

The August deficit pushed the fiscal 2025 shortfall to $1.97 trillion with one month left. In fiscal 2024, the federal deficit was $1.82 trillion.

The U.S. pulled in $29.5 billion in customs duties in August, a staggering 321.4 percent increase. That pushed August receipts to $344.32 billion, a 12.3 percent increase year-over-year.

Through the first 11 months of fiscal 2025, the U.S. government brought in $165.2 billion in customs duties. That’s up $95.5 billion from the same period in fiscal ’24.

In total, the federal government has collected $4.69 trillion so far in fiscal 2025. That’s 6.8 percent higher than through the same period last year.

That’s a healthy revenue increase for any organization.

Unless that organization spends without restraint.

That’s exactly what the federal government does, and spending is going up even faster than revenue.

A lot faster!”

Chuck again… And then there’s the question of whether we, as a country, will have to rebate a ton of those tariffs already taken…    I had a reader chastise me last week when I mentioned that possibility…  I don’t know why, for I’ve been anti-tariffs since they were just an idea in the head of the POTUS!

Market Prices 9/15/2025; American Style: A$.6662, kiwi .5965, C$ .7245, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3515, Swiss $1.2580, European Style: rand 17.3289, krone 9.8228, SEK 9.2726, forint 331.61, zloty 3.6123, koruna 20.6040, RUB 82.34, yen 147.34, sing 1.2809, HKD 7.7787, sing 1.2809, INR 88.21, China 7.1219, peso 18.41, BRL 5.3351, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 97.34, Oil $62.95, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $42.18, Platinum $1,399.00, Palladium $1,215.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,638

That’s it for today… A very hot temps weekend here in my little river town… Shoot Rudy, I even made it to our pool yesterday to cool off!  No Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ve be traveling to a good friend’s lake house for a few days… I’ll write from there, no worries, but not tomorrow… I’m so happy to be able to go… Two weeks ago, when Kevin called me, I was still dealing with weakness from not eating and I told him I would have play it by ear…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday, and now begin their SEC regular season this coming Saturday… Go Tigers!   And tomorrow is the 16^th of Sept… Halfway to St. Patrick’s Day! I better pack a green shirt to wear tomorrow!  Blood, Sweat, and Tears takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Our opposites scenario plays out on Tuesday
• A correction ahead for the metals? Probably not…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I forgot to mention to you all that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow… I have two, count ’em, two doctor appts, the first is with my Oncologist, who will not be happy that I won’t be able to get my usual monthly infusion this time because of me being on steroids…  And the second one is with the doctor that put the Watchman device on my heart last year… The need to make sure that there are no leaks…   The Allman Brothers greets me this morning with their live version of the song: One Way Out… 

Well, my suspicions were correct that the BLS did revise their jobs numbers for the last year downward by 911,000 not 1,000,000 as was rumored… This is for jobs the BLS say were created between April 2024 and March 2025..  And guess what the dollar did? It rallied! No kidding, I wouldn’t kid you, on something like that, thus proving once again that we like in a time of Opposites…  The new BLS chief jefe is still to be confirmed by Congress, but I’m sure he wasn’t as pleased about potentially getting the job, as before…   Just for grins, I went to the BLS site for Birth/Death jobs and since March of this year the BLS has already added 963,000 jobs out of thin air that next year, will be part of the revision again…  I’m just saying…

So, the BBDXY saw a gain of 3 index points yesterday to end the day at 1,201… And Gold, which immediately rallied on the jobs revision, saw the SPT’s take away Gold’s gains on the day, and Gold ended up down $11 at $3,625…  Silver was in the same boat as Gold, and saw the SPT’s take away Silver’s shine for the day by 44-cents to end the day at $40.92… The SPT’s can’t stand to see Silver above $41… And they will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Gold & Silver Bugs… 

I don’t like the fact that Kitco.com won’t call the selling in Gold & Silver for what it really is… Short Paper Traders… Instead, they call it “mild profit taking” after Gold reached a new all-time high… But to each his own, right? But to call a $11 swing “mild profit taking” is stretching the cord a bit, don’t you agree? 

The price of Oil bumped higher again, with this back and forth for the price of Oil, this is giving me a rash… Oil ended the day with a $63 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury saw more selling yesterday as the yield on the bond rose from 4.04% in the morning to 4.07% to end the day… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, when I retired last night, the dollar was getting sold and the BBDXY was down to 1,1997, and I thought “Well, the foreign markets at least see the U.S. economy is shakier than their counterparts in the U.S.”. But upon waking up this morning, (which wasn’t easily done I might add) I see where that thought was so wrong it was almost right! The Dollar is flat to start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,201…  The euro has slipped back below the 1.17 hqndle, and the loftiness of the currencies in recent days has just about abated… 

Gold is up $19 to start our day today, and Silver is back above $41 at $41.06, up 14-cents to start our Wonderful Wednesday…  Here’s a little ditty I found that should help Gold a bit… Poland’s Central Bank just announced it is planning to increase gold’s share of its total reserves from the current 20% to 30%. That comes after being the No.1 central bank gold buyer in 2024 (89.5 Tonnes).

The appetite for physical Gold isn’t being sated by Central Banks around the world, if only the U.S. investor would realize what’s going on and start buying Gold instead of the stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, or whatever the latest “phony favorite investment of the day is”… Gold would then be rallying every single day… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is stuck around 4.07% to start our day today. 

And speaking of the 10-year Treasury, I went back a found where the yield was on this bond at the turn of the year (Jan) at it was 4.80%…  But back then the markets and its participants were of the thought that the U.S. economy was on the right tracks… Of course, they could have read the Pfennig and known that wasn’t the case, but I digress…    The bond boys don’t believe in any magical economic miracles on the horizon so they have taken to believe the Fed Heads this time, that they will be cutting rates next week, and therefore the economy isn’t doing well…  And this works for the U.S. Treasury since the new bonds they will have to be issuing soon, won’t have as high of a yield on them, thus reducing the debt servicing costs… (interest rate)

Something that I found quite interesting in yesterday’s Bill Bonner’s Private Research newsletter…  First of all, do you remember that 2–3-year period in the U.S. right after the Covid debacle, when the period of time was referred to as “the Great Resignation”?  Yeah, that was when after being at home during the Covid debacle, people decided that they didn’t like their jobs any longer… and quit…  Well, yesterday, Bill Bonner told me that for the first time since April 2021, The U.S. has more Unemployed workers than Job Openings…   Uh-oh!  For those of you keeping score at home, The Total Unemployed in the U.S. is 7.24 Million,  VS 7.18 Million Job Openings…  How will the future participants of Social Security expect to receive their funds when there’s not enough workers to support the system? Aye, Aye, Aye…

And I was reading an article on Moneymetals.com about how we shouldn’t worry about a correction in the metals…  here’s a brief snippet about something I mentioned the other day regarding Gold being in the overbought side of the RSI… “Overbought readings should be ignored, as they are completely normal during strong uptrends and should actually be welcomed as signs of strength and momentum. That’s why I’m not at all concerned about the current overbought readings in gold and silver, unlike the Chicken Littles who are panicking and calling for a correction.”

Chuck again… Again, that’s one person’s viewpoint… But if I hadn’t experienced a collapse of the Silver price 20 or so years ago, I would agree wholeheartedly… But in this case, I’m just throwing it out there to see if it sticks to the wall… Shoot Rudy, I recall a time when at EverBank, that Gold was seeing a correction and was heading toward $750, even a well-known analyst called that Gold would fall to $700… Well, it didn’t even fall below $800, but still the correction was in, and then Gold had to work very hard to get back to $1,000.. The rest is history… Gold is $3,600 as I write… 

Well, the FOMC meets next Wednesday the 17th… What will it be boys? a 25 or 50 Basis Point cut? I guess we have a week to wait, eh?  With inflation rising again, even with the hedonic adjustments, I hope Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chief, Jerome Powell would stick to his guns and not cut rates… Because I’m deathly afraid of what the tariffs will do to the inflation rate, if given the chance to be implemented by the Courts…  Powell could really show his mettle if he kept rates unchanged, don’t you think? Not to be cow-towed by the POTUS… 

Right now there are odds of 88% that the rate cut will only be 25 Basis Points, and only 12% odds that the rate cut will be 50 Basis Points…   So, now you know… 

I know, the labor market is shot…  and that it needs a rate cut, but… at what cost? If inflation takes off because of the tariffs like I think it will, then what good will it be to have lower interest rates? Your job? It may be eliminated because of inflation, ever think of that? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the PPI (wholesale inflation)  and I believe we’ll see it rise to 3.3% annually.. .That means that consumer inflation will be heading higher and we’ll get the opportunity to see that the color of the STUPID CPI is tomorrow…   I know I’ve spent a lot of time talking about inflation this morning… Because I believe in my heart of hearts that it’s coming home to spread like a wildfire in the near future… And therefore… Got Gold?

To recap… The BLS did indeed revise their previous claims that the jobs market was strong by 911,000 jobs last year… it was over 800,000 the year before that and a lot the year before that… And at no time has the dollar gotten treated like a rented mule (no animals were hurt here) over these revisions… The dollar had rallied each month when the jobs numbers were so lofty… But when it comes to reversing that bullish trading in the dollar, crickets…   the dollar rallied on the revision, Gold saw the SPTS take its daily gains away, and Chuck spends a tone of time on inflation today… Are you ready for it? Got Gold?

For What It’s Worth… The good folks at GATA sent me this article that they pulled from the Economic Times site… It’s a theory of what the U.S. is going to do to address the astronomical debt that it has, and it can be found here: Putin’s advisor warns of US conspiracy to wipe out $35 trillion debt using crypto and gold market – The Economic Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “Anton Kobyakov, a senior Russian advisor to President Vladimir Putin, has alleged that the United States is orchestrating a scheme to offload its $35 trillion national debt by leveraging cryptocurrencies and gold. Kobyakov stated that Washington intends to “rewrite the rules” of these markets, positioning them as alternatives to the traditional global currency system. He gave these remarks during the Eastern Economic Forum, which was held in Vladivostok, Russia, with the purpose of encouraging foreign investment in the Russian Far East.

The United States’ national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, making it the largest in the world. This figure represents the total amount the federal government owes to creditors, including foreign governments, institutional investors, and US citizens through Treasury securities. The debt has been driven by decades of budget deficits, large-scale stimulus packages, military spending, and entitlement obligations such as Social Security and Medicare.

In a recent statement posted by RT’s X account, Kobyakov said, “The US is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt, 35 trillion dollars. These two sectors are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system.” He further asserted, “Washington’s actions in this area clearly highlight one of its main goals to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar.”

Chuck again… Well, at least the Gov’t see’s the danger in the loss of the Reserve Status for the dollar, but I’m not really sure this is the way to go about saving that… I would go about cutting deficit spending, first, and foremost…  Stop getting involved in everyone else’s wars, and bring our soldiers home…  Then there’s a laundry list of dirty shirts that need to be addressed in our Gov’t, and Congress, and Courts… But that’s a discussion for another day… 

Market Prices 9/10/2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .5943, C$ .7216, euro 1.1699, sterling 1.3531, Swiss $1.2531, European Style: rand 17.5449, krone 9.9223, SEK 9.3619, forint 336.19, zloty 3.6423, koruna 20.8479, RUB 84.67, yen 147.52, sing 1.2829, HKD 7.7900, INR 88.10, China 7.1233, peso 18.62, BRL 5.4364, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $63.29, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $41.06, Platinum $1,399.00, Palladium $1,199.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $3,644.

That’s it for today… And this week… sorry about tomorrow, but doctors appts take the precedence over writing…  Sort of like Discretion over Valor…   My beloved Cardinals played late in Seattle again last night and lost once again.  If the Cardinals were a hockey team, I would tell them to shine up their golf clubs, because that’s where they will be when the regular season ends in a few weeks…  UGH! The beginning of the year showed such a promise too…  double UGH!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers take on U of Louisiana on Saturday… Could be a “trap game” for my Tigers, let’s hope not! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their great song: Driftwood… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• Will we see 1,000,000 jobs taken away today?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! My beloved Cardinals played in Seattle last night, so it came on too late for me to watch the entire game… I did wake up in the middle of the night to see that they had lost 4-2. When I turned it off they were ahead 2-0… UGH!  Went out to dinner last night with our friends, Duane and Toni.. Fun times as always…  This will be a quite long Pfennig today, because I’ve got a section that I took from the 5 Bullets letter, that I think is important for our country right now, and going forward…  Spoiler Alert: the fertility rate, in the U.S. has fallen to historic lows according to the CDC… Elvis Presley greets me this morning with his ballad song: Are You Lonesome Tonight… 

Well, the dollar was getting sold in the overnight markets Sunday night, and that selling carried through to the U.S. market yesterday… The BBDXY lost 4 Index points from Friday’s Close, and Gold continued to take advantage of the weaker dollar…   There are a couple of the currencies that are really rising with the weaker dollar too, and they include: the euro, sterling, Swiss francs, Norwegian Krone, Chinese renminbi, and others to a lesser degree…  

Gold gained $49 yesterday, and ended the day at $3,636… Silver also gained yesterday, and this time it was up 31-cents, to end the day at $41.36…  Abd here’s a note that the good folks at GATA sent me regarding Silver… They took it from Bloomberg.com: ” Surging lease rates for silver are once again upending the precious metals market, with traders fearing that possible US tariffs could squeeze already tight supplies in London as price dislocations re-emerge between key trading hubs.”

You know, I get caught in this trap quite a bit often, in that I say that Gold gained… But in the end, it’s the dollar losing value that is helping Gold to reach new highs…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil saw slippage yesterday after the Saudi’s said they would ramp up production again this Autumn… The price of Oil slid to end the day trading with a $62 handle…  And the 10-year continues to see its yield drop like a rock, as the yield ended the day with a 4.04% yield…  And now…. The markets are thinking that a 50 Basis Point rate cut is coming instead of a 25 Basis Points cut… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold some more, with the BBDXY starting this morning at 1,197…   The currencies all look healthier than they’ve been in some time, and in my humble opinion, that will continue to take shape, as the dollar goes deeper into the new weak trend…  The dollar is in deep dookie folks… I’m just saying…   

Gold continues to shine, and is up $17 to start our day today, and Silver is flat to down 3-cents to start today… I have more on Silver later, so stay tuned…  I really think that Gold is on a new upward phase, that will take it to new heights…  Got Gold?  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle overnight, and the 10-year finally saw some sellers. The Bond Boys have really pushed the envelope of bond price appreciation ( yield loss), and maybe they said, “Hey! We’re going too fast here, let’s slow down”…  The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond starts today at 4.07%

It was last week that I told you that Washington last month categorized Silver as critical to US national security… And I told you that it would end up being a very good thing for the Silver price…    This could very well be the beginning of the end for the SPT’s, for if their borrowing costs keep going higher, it will put a damper on their profits… 

A week ago, or so, I told you that France’s PM made a very revealing speech about his country’s finances or lack of them as it would be… And yesterday, he got canned! The country’s lawmakers voted him out the door.. See what happens when you tell people the truth, but they refuse to hear it?  Or refuse to accept the truth and still believe that their country is blessed and everything will turn out peaches and Cream… 

OK… this is where I go off the rails a bit, but in the end you’ll see what I’m getting after with this piece by David Gonigam in his  5 Bullets newsletter yesterday… So, take it away, Dave!

“A few days ago, The Washington Post got its hands on a five-page draft summary of a policy paper that Heritage has in the works. It blames the baby bust on “free love, pornography, careerism, the Pill, abortion, same-sex relations and no-fault divorce,” while calling for a “Manhattan Project to restore the nuclear family.”

Among the solutions it’s recommending to the Trump administration…

New government-seeded savings accounts for married people

Redirecting child-care funding away from programs like Head Start and toward individual families

An executive order requiring all proposed government policies and rules to “measure their positive or negative impacts on marriage and family.”

If this all sounds like government getting up in people’s business… well, it is.

One of the Post’s anonymous sources described an internal debate going into the document’s preparation. “That paper is not a compromise between the limited government folks and the big government folks. It is an outright steamrolling of the limited government folks.”

Heritage is glossing over the real problem — one your editor addressed head-on last year when JD Vance made news with his remarks about “childless cat ladies.”

The real problem is highlighted by a new and depressing Wall Street Journal-NORC survey…

Only 25% of Americans believe they have “a good chance of improving their standard of living” — an all-time low in data going back to 1987

Nearly 70% believe hard work does not translate to getting ahead — a low in 15 years of survey data

And most revealing… Over 75% doubt that children today will live a better life than their parents.

If you don’t believe your kids will live a better life than you… well, that’s a powerful disincentive to have kids in the first place, right?

That problem doesn’t get solved by new government-funded savings accounts.

It gets solved only when a middle-class lifestyle becomes affordable once again, and on a single income.

That means, among other things, an end to the health care cartel and the higher-education racket.”

Chuck again… This article is much longer folks, but you get the gist… Couples just aren’t having kids at the same rate as previously, and this will eventually come back to haunt the U.S.’s finances… Their Ponzi Scheme called Social Security, and other things…  I’m just saying… 

I also have this link to an article from one of my fave reads: Matthew Piepenburg… It’s about artificial intelligence and it can be found here: Markets, AI & The Great Dumbing

Chuck again… In case you do go to the link, read the article, you might want to know how I took it… I loved it! And I agree 100%, and I especially loved this statement: “Artificial” is the antithesis of genuine, and any intelligence that is artificial is inherently the very opposite of intelligence.”  I rest my case… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed us that Consumer Credit (read debt) had exploded in July to $16 Billion, I say exploded because in June the number was $9.6 Billion… So, once again, I think that credit cards, lines of credit, refinancings, and other kinds of loans to create debt is going in the wrong direction, and illustrates the U.S. Consumer as tapped out of cash… 

Today is the day that we’re supposed to be seeing the BLS make a downward revision, taking away 1,000,000 jobs that they created out of thin air, but no longer can validate… Like I said yesterday, 1.8 Million jobs have been taken off the board by the BLS, in the last two years, that is if the 1,000,000 jobs are really taken away… 

Again, I think the euro will be being pulled in two different directions going forward from the fallout from France, and the fact that the euro is still the offset currency to the dollar… Rather, I said last week, you might want to look at the Swiss franc, or even the Norwegian krone… Sterling is OK… but when the dollar really does a deep dive into the weak dollar trend its beginning now, you’ll be able to pick out a currency that you like, and watch it gain…  At least that’s what happened in the last weak dollar trend… 

But, if you’re full of risk… Then I’ll tell you that traders are betting that the euro will rise to 1.20…  The next stop for the euro is 1.18, where a ton of stop loss orders lie, and that could really propel the euro higher…   Just a fair and balanced opinion of the euro , what else would you expect from me?

To Recap… Consumers are spending like there’s no tomorrow… The dollar is getting taken to the woodshed… Gold & Silver are the shining lights of investments…  Chuck carries on about fertility rates, and finally… is the BLS going to announce a downward revision to job creation for this year of 1,000,000 jobs today?  

For What It’s Worth… This article comes to me from the good folks at GATA who found it on Reuters… You need to read this folks… Gold’s rise in central bank reserves appears unstoppable | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Worries over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical instability are raising questions about the stability of long-term Treasuries, traditionally the world’s safest asset. In response, many central banks are turning back to that “barbarous relic”, gold.

The fortunes of gold and government bonds have diverged sharply this year, a split highlighted this week as the price of bullion struck a new high and many long-dated bond yields hit levels not seen in years or, in some cases, ever.

U.S. Treasuries haven’t sold off nearly as sharply as European or Japanese bonds, largely because U.S. debt still enjoys solid underlying demand from central banks and other official institutions managing foreign exchange reserves.

But Treasuries have essentially been “treading water” in global reserve portfolios in recent years, while central banks’ gold holdings have mushroomed, thanks to accelerating demand and soaring prices.

Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar and, for the first time since 1996, gold represents a bigger share of central banks’ reserves than Treasuries.

Central banks now hold 36,000 tons of gold, according to a European Central Bank study, having hoovered up huge volumes since the post-pandemic inflation spike and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They have increased their holdings by more than 1,000 metric tons in each of the last three years, a record pace and double the average annual purchases in the preceding decade.

With the price of gold currently above $3,500 an ounce – up a whopping 35% so far this year – central banks’ gold holdings are now worth around $4.5 trillion. That’s significantly more than their $3.5 trillion stash of Treasuries.

Moreover, Treasuries’ share of total reserves has been shrinking in recent years. It is now only 23%, by some measures, down from previous peaks of more than 30% in the 2010s, and below gold’s current 27% share.”

Chuck Again…  let me ask this one more time…. Got Gold?

Market Prices 9/9/ 2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .5951, C$ .7347, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3569, Swiss $1.2599, European Style: rand 17.4712, krone 9.9618, SEK 9.3673, forint 334.83, zloty 3.6223, koruna 20.7148, RUB 83.78, yen 146.60, sing 1.2809, HKD 7.7887, INR 88.11, China 7.1212, peso 18.62, BRL 5.4195, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.41, Oil $62.78, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $41.33, Platinum $1,405.00, Palladium $1,162.00, Copper $4.55, and Gold… $3,653.

That’s it for today… Another absolutely beautiful day here in my little river town… I sat outside for 2 hours reading… The doctors have me on steroids right now, tapering down at this point, so in taking them, I no longer need an afternoon nap!  I do have problems falling asleep at night though… But too much longer and I’ll be off them. At least, I’m eating again… Two weeks ago, I wasn’t eating much, and my weight had fallen dramatically, to a level I hadn’t seen since I was 18 in High School! The doctor told me to STOP losing weight! Not that I was thin in any stretch of the imagination, just that losing it so quickly wasn’t healthy… Did I ever tell you that I wrestled in H.S.? I wrestled the 185 weight class, but only weighed 172…  It was difficult to wrestle someone at 17-18 years old that had more than 10 lbs of muscle on you! I did win a few matches… I was never in better physical shape than when I wrestled!  Sugar Ray takes us to the finish line today with their song: Every Morning… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday after the awful jobs number
• Pushing our allies to join up with China…

Good Day and a Marvelous Monday to you… Well, no county defaulted over the weekend, so that’s good news…  I have something very special for you in the FWIS section today, so read on!  The Amboy Dukes greets me this morning with their classic rock song: Journy To the Center of the Mind… 

I want to lead the Pfennig today with this quote from Lola… You know, Goldman Sachs, who has their thumb on the pulse of American investors… Here’s Lola… “If just 1% of privately owned Treasuries were shifted into gold, the US$ gold price could rise to $5,000/oz, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs. The chance of interest rate cuts, and the risk of the Fed losing independence, could also be drivers for the gold price in 2026, according to Goldman. Gold has nearly doubled in the last two years.” taken from Bill Bonner’s Private Research letter 9/4/205…

Well, Thursday started with the dollar rebounding and that phase for the dollar, continued throughout the day, even with the ADP Employment Reports showed a very weak labor demand, that would lead a sane person to believe a rate cut, or debasement of the currency, is coming soon… But, that didn’t stop the dollar bugs from exerting their muscles…  Thursday saw the BBDXY close at 1,207, with the euro falling the most.  

Gold and Siver got taken to the woodshed on Thursday, by the SPT’s… Do they really believe that they can stem this upward movement in these two? I guess they do, because on Thursday, they were howling at the door of Gold & Silver and took them down, Gold by $16, and Silver by 40-cents… Gold closed on Thursday at $3,546, and Silver closed at $40.70…  

Friday, saw the Jobs Jamboree print on 22,000 jobs created in August!  And… The new BLS chief jefe, added 90,000 jobs to the surveys out of thin air…. I told you he wouldn’t do anything that would make a difference in how corrupt and fraudulent these jobs numbers get printed…   The dollar bugs immediately ran for cover, because the rout on the dollar was on, again… The BBDXY fell to 1,1999 immediately, and the rest of the day wasn’t pretty for the dollar.  The euro recovered and took the lead once again on leading the rest of the currencies higher VS the dollar…  

The Jobs Jamboree number was a real shock to the “Our Economy is strong and resilient” folks, and they had to deal with the dollar selling all day. The BBDXY did recover a bit at the end of the day, thanks to the PPTer’s I guess, but the BBDXY went into the weekend at 1,202…   

And Gold and Silver were back on the rally horse, or the rally train once again after the Jobs Jamboree number had pointed to another notch in the rate cutter’s belt…. Gold ended the week up $40 to close the week at $3,587. Silver ended the week up 35-cents to close the week at $41.05… 

The price of Oil is falling again and ended the week trading with a $61 handle… And the Jobs Jamboree really did a number on the 10-year Treasury’s yield… It dropped like a rock, and ended the week with a 4.07% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the rout that started on Friday on the dollar continued overnight. The BBDXY starts our day at 1,200, down 2 index points…  So, Thursday’s rally in the dollar is a small figure in our rear-view mirror…  The rate cut, which now is a question of whether it will be 25 or 50 Basis Points, is in the cards, so the debasement of the dollar has begun… 

Gold is over $3,600 this morning, up $30 to start our day/ week… I read where a write was questioning if this was the end of the Gold run, or just the beginning of a new run up…  I have my opinion, which could end up being wrong, but you know how I love to give my opinion, so here goes…In my mind, this is the beginning of a new phase of run up for Gold… There are just too many things stacked up against the dollar right now, and investors are going to Gold because it makes abundant sense!

Silver is also on the rally tracks again this morning, trading once again over $41 at $4128, up 25-cents to start our day/ week…   The price of Oil which seemed to be on the verge of a real collapse, on Friday, as it slid to trade with a $61 handle, all because of the rumor of a glut in petrol, has come back strong and starts our day/ week trading with a $63 handle…  

And the 10-year Treasury is bucking the trend of global bonds, who are seeing their yields rise, Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese Gov’t Bond’s yield is rising!  But rightly so, I guess, for the U.S. 10-year, since the rate cut is in the cards…  The 10-year starts our day/ week trading with a 4.09% yield… 

Well, it didn’t take that long considering, but China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is now allowing Gold to be taken in swaps with renminbi… Chinese people can take their renminbi down to the bank and exchange it for physical Gold! I told listeners and readers decades ago that China would eventually have enough Gold to back their currency, and then the end of the dollar reserve system would end… I had many a writer come back at me (not at me personally, but through their own letters stating that it wasn’t even in China’s plans)  J.R. Was one of them that really tried to put me in my place…  But that didn’t deter me on iota! And now look what China’s doing now… Don’t worry, I won’t give those writers a “I told you so”… or a neener, neener, neener… 

Ooops, maybe I just did what I said I wouldn’t do?  Oh, well, it’s time to move on… Well, last week’s data was sure not the stuff that a strong economy is built on, eh? I mean the Manufacturing Index remained below 50 and 48.7%, Factory Orders were negative once again, Auto Sales were lower than the previous month at 16.1 Million (I WISH I had bought one of those 16.1 Million),  The ADP (The real jobs report) in my mind, was very weak, the Jobs Jamboree was only 22,000, and the Hourly Wages were up but only to 3.7% yoy… That’s not enough to cover the inflation rate (the real inflation rate)  and so on… So, if we were really trading on fundamentals, like in the good old days) The dollar would have been sent to the woodshed many times and wouldn’t be still relevant…   

And get this.. .It is being reported that tomorrow, the BLS and its new chief jefe, is going to announce that up to 1,000,000 jobs will be revised down, taken away, from all those fraudulent jobs reports this year… 1 Million jobs!  Now… Do you finally believe me when I tell you that the BLS adds jobs out of thin air to make the jobs numbers look better than they really are?   You may recall that last year over 800,000 jobs were taken away in a revision…  So, in two years 1.8 Million jobs that never existed are being taken away…   I shake my head in disgust that this news won’t send the dollar reeling, and looking for a parachute…  Fundamentals… where have you gone?

Something that happened last week really got me thinking that this is all going the wrong way (Tariffs)… The Chinese hosted an Economic Summit and invited all their Asian friends, including Russia, and India…  This is important folks, because Inda and China have been at each other’s throats for eons…  Chinese Premiere Xi even had a picture of his warmly shaking hands with Indian PM Modi…  This is quite significant folks, trust me on this… We’ve pushed away one of our longtime allies, who used to buy a boat load of Treasuries from us, but now…. They are backing away from the Treasury Auction Window… And buying Gold instead!   

And this is when I point out that usage of the dollar as a reserve currency for Central Banks around the world as fallen to 57%… That’s not been seen since 1994 when the dollar was in the middle of a long-term weak trend…  Are we headed there again? I for one think the dollar has already begun another long-term weak trend… I’m just saying… 

Well, Ed Steer was really on his game in his Saturday letter (www.edsteergoldsilver.com) He has the latest on the short positions in futures that the U.S. Banks have… Here’s Ed…”[The September Bank Participation Report covers the four-week time period from August 5 to September 2 inclusive]

Chuck again… Ed points out that The U.S. Banks’ Short Position in Silver Implodes… So, the point I’m making here is that the short paper traders are still in business, and therefore the wolf remains at the door… So, don’t answer the door! Ignore these dastardly devils, and maybe, just maybe, they’ll go away…  Just wishin’ and hopin’ and  thinnkin’ and prayin’… (Dusty Springfield) 

Well, we can check off yet another former Big Buyer of Treasuries at a time when we need them the most… For the National Debt in the U.S.  For grins, I looked at the Debt Clock and it showed that since we hit $37 Trillion on 8/25/15, We, as a country have racked up another $327 Billion, well on our way to $38 Trillion, I’d say… And the real problem here is that a ton of Treasury Maturities will be coming due this year, and will have to rolled into higher interest / yield, bonds… That will put even more pressure on the country’s finances, folks…   I’m just saying…

And what are we to make of the Tariffs at this point? The Treasury says that we collected over $31 Billion in Tariffs in August… But… the courts have said these tariffs are illegal without Congress approval, so… The question is this… If the tariffs are struck down, will we have to give the money taken back to the country that was charged?   I bet you didn’t think about that one did you? I did, of course, logical Chuck always taking the right lane to drive in…   I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week was disastrous, and this week’s Cupboard won’t be much better, if things go the way I see them going… There’s not much in the Cupboard this week, but we will see the STIPID CPI for August on Thursday…  Even with all their hedonic adjustments the folks that put together the STUPID CPI will most likely have to show that consumer inflation has risen to 2.9% yoy…  And if you really wanted to know that the inflation rate should be showing, go to John Williams’ shadow stats site…  

There you will find that John Williams calculates inflation the way it used to be calculated, a fixed basket of goods, and compare the prices each month, no hedonic adjustments added.. And you’ll find that the real inflation rate in the U.S. is 10% and the real unemployment rate is 27%… Now, doesn’t that sound more like what you’re feeling every time you go to get gas, groceries, tickets, giggles?  

On a sidebar here… I was perusing the internet and came across this site that said that to see the Beatles in concert in 1960’s it would cost you a big $5.50…  for a ticket to see the Beatles? HOLY COW! Tickets to see far lesser musical talents put on a concert are hundreds of dollars a seat!  But that was before Nixon took us off the Gold standard, and the rout on our disposable income was on…   I’m just saying… 

To recap… The jobs Jamboree sent the dollar down the river on Friday, after having another brief rally on Thursday, the dollar ended the week with the BBDXY at 1,202, but was lower than 1,200 at one point in the day…  India and China are buddying up, and that will be to the U.S.’s dismay, I’m sure…  Chuck goes ballistic on the pending jobs revision that’s due tomorrow… And What do you think inflation really is?

For What it’s Worth…  Which is a misnomer for this announcement…  My good friend, and former Big Boss,  Frank Trotter, and eventually I’ve found my way back to him, has an announcement that I know that a ton of you have been waiting for, so with no further ado… Here’s Frank Trotter:

“Man, it took a lot longer than I could ever have imagined, but the approval letter from the Federal Reserve finally arrived!  We have cleared all the regulatory approvals necessary to purchase Stearns Bank of Upsala, N.A. and begin to launch Battle Bank.  Here’s the plan for how it’s going to happen.  We are finishing up the pre-opening capital raise and expect to close that at the end of September (Wake Me Up When September Ends, Green Day).  If you want to be part of that community and you’re an accredited investor head over to https://www.battlebank.com/invest. 

The tentative closing date for the acquisition is mid-October, we’ll continue to run the local bank, change the name to Battle Bank, N.A., and begin to test out systems.  Next up we’ll ask some shareholders (hint hint) to open accounts and test with us.  When we are satisfied that all is ready, we’ll begin to invite people from the Waitlist – word to the wise, if you want to be a client inside the first year the Waitlist is the place to be.  So that’s the plan.

Onward and upward,”

Frank

Chuck Again… Isn’t that just the greatest news in these times of chaos for the markets?  I know where my bank account will be heading soon… 

Market Prices 9/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6589, kiwi .5936, C$ .7243, euro 1.1726, sterling 1.3532, Swiss $1.2573, European Style: rand 17.5734, krone 9.9889, SEK 9.3801, forint 335.60, zloty 3.6243, koruna 20.7754, RUB 82.07, yen 147.79, sing 1.2843, HKD 7.7937, INR 88.26, China 7.1298, peso 18.65, BRL 5.4072, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 97.66, Oil $63.20, 10-year 4.09%, Silver $41.28, Platinum $1,396.00, Palladium $1,153.00, Copper $5.53, and Gold… $3,6017

That’s it for today…  I had a absolutely fabulous Saturday, sitting outside at my son, Andrews’ house with his friends watching our beloved Mizzou Tigers kick ku’s Butt! I’ve been quite wordy lately, spouting off about this, that and the other things swimming around in my brain!  See, what happens when I don’t have someplace to go or to be and sit around and think all day? Scary, I know… But at least you get it unfiltered by the Gov’t…  For now, that is… Shoot, if I were a resident of the U.K. They could have me arrested, and put in jail for saying true things about the U.S. finances, and problems…  Recently I read about a man who sent three texts, that weren’t favorable about some of the stupid legislature the U.K. Has made and he was arrested and placed in Jail when he stepped off the plane at Heathrow… OK, enough of that… Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Into The Mystic…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar bounces back… who’s buying?
• ADP Employment shows weak labor demand….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to and all! I’m all dazed and confused, not like the 80’s movie… I’ve got my days mixed up again. All day long yesterday, I thought it was Thursday… What a Dolt!  So, when I pulled up the blank page to write today, I realized that today is Thursday!  UGH!  I was so ramped up to go to our local watering hole thinking it would be Tomorrow (Fri)  My beloved Cardinals after getting thumped on Monday, came back to win the next two games VS the A’s… So, I was happy about that, and in fact I sat outside listening to the game for a while, with good friend Duane, before the rain chased us off…  The Jefferson Starship greet me this morning with their song: Miracles…  (  A great song!)

Well, this Pfennig is going to be a little different, in that, it is going to be one long FWIW, that I think is VERY IMPORTANT for you as an investor needs to read. But first the recap of yesterday’s trading, and of course that piece I wrote 15 years ago that I promised you yesterday…. So, let’s get going, this is going to be a long Thursday Pfennig…

The dollar continued to get sold yesterday after Tuesday brief rally… The BBDXY lost   2 index points, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,205… And,  the currencies, not led by the BIG DOG euro, as we’ll see why in the FWIW article today, all gained VS the dollar yesterday.  

Gold also continued to get bought, until it ididn’t.. At one point in the day, Gold was up to $3,565…. But then the SPT’s went after Gold & Silver with vengeance Gold lost $ 13 to close the day at $3,527…  

Silver also was gaining yesterday, until the SPT’s showed and up and took Silver down to 49.63… Silver had traded over $41.26 yesterday…  But those dastardly SPT’s always have to pull the punch bowl from Gold & Silver’s party, don’t they? 

Did you hear that the U.S. US, the US Government (Department of the Interior) has just added silver to its draft list of Strategic Minerals ?This is the first time silver has been included.  And it’s BIG NEWS for Silver!

Treasuries were bought yesterday, who foolishly thinks that Treasuries are a safe haven as they once were…. The 10-year Treasury’s yield fell to 4.  %…

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar was bought again… Recovering the 2 index points lost in yesterday’s trading the BBDXY starts today at 1,207… I found it very interesting that on Monday, when the U.S. SPT’s and the PPT were barbequing on their patios, that the BBDXY fell below 1,200…  Right?  The currencies have taken one on the chin again, but what else is new?   

Gold participants signaled a sigh of relief overnight, that the SPTer’s didn’t do more damage to the metals, and they decided to dip their toes back in the metal’s markets, so, Gold is up $18 to start our day today, and Silver is up 18-cents… I know, those gains are just a coincidence, and I normally don’t believe it coincidences…   The ADP Employment Report out this morning already, is helping Gold gains, since it showed a very weak labor demand number, and therefore puts another notch in the rate cutter’s belts… Oil is getting treated like rented mule again and starts our day trading with a $63 handle… 

The 10-year Treasury boys saw the ADP Employment number and went to work lowering / thus buying the yield in the 10-year to 4.19% this morning… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the July Factory Orders, and they were negative -1.3%, better than June’s -4.8%, but still negative… That’s not good folks…   Today we got the ADP Employment Report for August . And the report showed that only 54,000 jobs were created in August… So, you can see now why Gold is getting bought again, but doesn’t explain the dollar rallying… So, questions, questions, tons of questions…

To recap… The dollar fell back to its underlying trend of weakness yesterday, after the brief rally on Tuesday… Maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) someone said, “What, Wait! The dollar is no safe haven any longer!”  Gold continues to soar along with Silver and Silver had some BIG NEWS attached to it last week…  Chuck is in a foul mood this morning, so get ready for a BIG FWIW article this morning…

15 years ago, I used to work or EverBank and on the side I wrote and did videos to subscribers at the Sovereign Society (Agora Publishing back then)  and one of the pieces I wrote was about how China was changing their viewpoint on their internal currency, the renminbi…  The Chinese had decided to make the renminbi more flexible in price and to get it out in the hands of countries all over the world…  The Chinese came up with a plan to distribute their currency-by-Currency Swap Agreements… This would remove the dollar from the terms of transactions that were taking place all over the world every day… China had already signed up quite a few countries to do currency swaps with, when I wrote about this… And I said then that when the OPEC countries signed on to do currency swaps, then it was over for the Petrol dollar…    Well, nothing has changed in the 15 years since, except the usage of dollars around the world… China is still working on distribution of their currency to any country that will swap with them…  This way, China doesn’t have to take dollars in the terms of transactions, and they don’t have to put those dollars to use buying Treasuries…  A Double-Edged Sword for the dollar, folks… 

For What It’ Worth… This is from Von Greyerz and their main writer, Mathew Piepenburg… And at the end of this, all I have to say is… GOT GOLD? VON GREYERZ_Monthly Gold Briefings_September 2025_V2

Your Snippet: ” On August 25th, 2025, the Prime Minister of France, François Bayrou,

 delivered one of the most important political speeches in recent times.

Important because of its honesty about the perilous reality that France now

 faces.

 It’s worth reminding readers exactly what he said:

 The great empires have now chosen to impose their laws by force. Military force with Russia’s never-ending assault on Ukraine. Commercial showdown with an unbalanced and unfair competition on hundreds of products from powerful China. The domination of the customs duty policies unilaterally imposed by Mr. Trump’s United States.

 Europe is not doing well, either. She should speak with one voice, but is too often divided, with everyone trying to seek their own advantage first.

Mario Draghi, this weekend in Rimini, pronounced a phrase that I believe we can all make our own – he said this summer that the dream of a Europe that counts in the world has vanished.

 An immediate danger weighs upon us, which we must face not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but today without delay of any kind- otherwise the future will be forbidden to us…

Our country is in danger because of the risk of over-indebtedness… Debt dependence has become chronic in France, and this money borrowed, in the hundreds of billions, has not been used as it should do, invest, to provide our country with the best equipment it was used for current expenses.

 As you become less and less salvageable, you become more and more expensive. This is the vicious circle, and there is no way out of it if we do not become aware of the seriousness of the risk and this inevitability.

 So, I know that it is easier to ignore all of this, to continue to act as if we can continue without changing anything… And if the path we choose is to pretend, to pretend that the problem does not exist, then I tell you, as I believe it from the bottom of my heart, we will not get out of this.

We, France, together will not get out of this. As a state and as a society, because it is our freedom that is at stake, it is our sovereignty and our independence, because, as we all know, if you are financially dependent as a state. It is as if you are militarily subjugated; it is the same thing.

 Very few politicians these days are prepared to say it as it is.

So, to have a Prime Minister in a country the size of France effectively say that European ‘project’ is over and (ultimately) at risk of bankruptcy was remarkable.

 One can perhaps imagine this honesty about a country’s debt coming from a small Latin American country or some other emerging market.”

Chuck again… France is a Big Part of the European Union folks, and yes it would take a myriad of years to untie all the strings that attaches the EU countries to each other, the mere fact that it would be on the way, is something I never thought would happen in my lifetime… And it probably won’t, but it’ll be close, because of DEBT! And then that got me wondering, who will be the U.S. statesman to speak these words to U.S. citizens?  Probably not that far down the line folks… 

And as far as the euro goes… it will be a yo-yo going forward, between the euro and the dollar, for the dollar is in deep dookie too…  Not that I’m making a recommendation but the Swiss Franc would be a better European exposure in my humble opinion of which I could be wrong! 

Market Prices 9/4/2025: American Style: A$ .6511, kiwi .5849, C$ .7236, euro 1.1635,  sterling 1.3432, Swiss $1.2408, European Style: rand 17.7773, krone 10.1050, SEK 96453, forint 337.18, zloty 3.6549, koruna 21.0218, RUB 81.66, yen 148.44, sing 1.2895, HKD 7.8002, INR 88.15, China 7.1411, peso 18.78, BRL 5.4574, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $63.18, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $40.85, Platinum $1,395.00, Palladium $1,1154.00, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $3,543

That’s it for today and this week… no Pfennig on Sunday this week! A great day yesterday, beautiful for sure… I sat outside to read, and eventually got too hot for me… I used to be able to stand the heat of the day, Shoot Rudy, as a teenager I built in-ground swimming pools in Oklahoma! Now those were HOT days! I’m so glad that my stomach and digestive problems have abated, and I can eat food again without worry of having to run to the bathroom… (TMI)? Sorry… Some readers want to know, and others do not… So, I tell! Come back on Monday… I’ll have some GREAT NEWS (not about me) to share with you, regarding my publisher… The Yardbirds take us to the finish line today with their song: For Your Love…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, pretty please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold And Silver are soaring!
• Is France the new Canary In A Coal Mine?

Good Day… and a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  And Welcome to September, a fews days late…. Well, I finally felt a bit better to get outside and do some cooking this past holiday weekend. Monday, I put my world-famous Turkey Roast Breast, wrapped in bacon, and let the Big Green Egg do the rest! It was YUMMY! Yesterday was a day to break out the Brownstone and grill some brats… And again, they were YUMMY! I even celebrated and had a nice cold one while cooking.. I hadn’t had a nice cold one in over two weeks!  And again, that was YUMMY! Stevie Guitar Miller and his band greet me this morning with their song: Living In The USA

Well, my visit to the hospital didn’t take too long to go through the blood tests results and what not… So, that was a good thing… For I really wanted to see where Gold was going after a strong gain on Monday, Sept 1… This from the Good Folks at Gata regarding Monday:  Gold hit a more than four-month high today to trade around $23 shy of all-time highs, buoyed by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets and a softer dollar, while silver breached $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011.

Spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,477.56 per ounce by 9:37 a.m. ET, its highest since April 22 when it touched a record-high of $3,500.05. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,547.70.”

Chuck Again… Well, the next stop for Gold is $3,00, and for Silver, The next stop… $50… and then to infinity and beyond! (Buzz Lightyear) 

There weren’t the number of dollar traders around on Monday, but the dollar did lose one index point in the BBDXY to 1,200… Yesterday, when the markets came back from the long weekend, and at one point of the day on Monday, the BBDXY was 1,198… Sinking away… on Monday… 

The price of Oil climbed higher in the $64 handle on Monday…  See what the commodities can do when left to their own devices?  

In yesterday’s trading, the dollar bounced back, (for what reason?) The BBDXY gained 6 index points to 1,207… The euro had climbed over the 1.17 level on Monday, but gave it back on Tuesday with the dollar rally… Gold, however, rallied once again and yesterday it gained $ 66…  To close at $3,543. While the wolves were at Silver’s door yesterday, and SPT’s took Silver downward, but… But showing who’s stronger now, buyers or sellers, Silver ended up at $40.93, so we’re still on the way to Infinity and Beyond… 

Bloomberg.com had this online this morning regarding the Dollar rally yesterday:  “The dollar strengthened the most in a month as investors reached for safe havens amid a broad pullback in global stock and bond markets.”  

Ahem… beg my pardon here, but Bloomberg.com still thinks the dollar is a “safe haven:?  Well, bust my buttons! You learn different things about people and companies in times like this, don’t you?   I did here, for sure! 

The price of Oil has gotten a bee in its bonnet lately, and yesterday the price of Oil traded over the $65 handle… It ended the day trading with a $65 handle… And the 10-year saw its yield pulled higher by the activity in the 30-year, which is nearing 5% yield once again… The 10-year’s yield closed yesterday at 4.28% yield… 

In case you’re a new reader, or missed class the 100 times I’ve discussed this before… I use the 10-year Treasury as my point on Bonds, because the 10-year is used to price mortgages, and other types of loans, so it’s very important!

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar buying that took place yesterday, stopped overnight, and BBDXY lost 1 index point overnight… I can hear the foreign traders talking among themselves, “Did you see that our brothers in trading over across the pond are saying that the dollar is a “safe haven, we don’t and we’ll show them!   (of course that was me not the foreign traders, but can’t you see them laughing right out of their chairs? )

The euro is getting dragged down from the recent speech by the French Prime Minister, Bayou, that France is toast, and the rest of Europe needs to stand together to make this thought, but instead, the Eurozone members are trying to be different from each other…   YIKES… has France become the new “Canary in a Coal Mine”? I took that from the great Mathew Piepenburg’s letter… so, kudos to him! 

The yield on the 10-year slipped back to a $64 handle overnight, apparently someone in Oil Industry told the world yesterday, that there will soon be a GLUT of oil supply… Sticks and stones may break my bones, but your words will never hurt me… Well, not with the price of Oil… 

And the 10-year also saw slippage in its yield and starts today with a 4.27% yield… 

 Last week, I thought it was that I told you that Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s independence was getting drained from them… And then I can across this from investinglive.com that they took from an interview that VP JD Vance did with U.S.A Today… here goes: “Vice President Vance in an interview on Thursday, on dismantling Fed independence: “I don’t think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people…POTUS is much better able to make these determinations.”

If you were in any doubt this clears it up. It might take some time, but Trump seems to get his way eventually.”

Oh-no! For the longest time I said that interest rates should be set by the Bond Boys of which POTUS is not one of those… Sec of the Treasury, S. Bessent was a bond boy in his days, and he should be pushing back on the White House taking over interest rate setting… But then maybe he fears for his job if he pushes back?  

That’s not earth-shattering news to me that the Fed has lost its Credibility and independence, but it is earth-shattering news to me that The W.H. Wants to take it over….. Heaven Help Us!   SERENITY NOW!

You know that the chance of runaway inflation that I spoke of in Sunday’s Pfennig? It could get to us much faster… Got Gold?

The other thing that caught my eye these last couple of days is that Student Loans are very deeply deficient in their repayments… I know that Student loans aren’t the same apple as the Housing debacle we had 18 years ago… But one thing leads to another, and soon it will filter over the Housing…  That’s just how I see it happening, so take that with as many grains of salt that you wish…  Remember 2007? Lehman Bros folded, while The Gov’t saved Bear Stearns…  The Lehman Bros folding was the straw that broke the camel’s back, and soon Insurance Cos, Casino Banks, Auto Co’s i.e. G.M., and everything you could point at was failing…  it only takes one snowflake to start an avalanche, folks…  again.. Got Gold?

Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me this after reading my Sunday Pfennig: “Afterthought…..  If the electorate listened to the people, the 2008 bailout NEVER would have happened.  I think it failed the first vote, passed by one vote the second time, and polls showed overwhelmingly the public was against bailing out the banks….

Yes those dastardly bail outs of the Casino Banks… We should have as a country let those that had to fail and take bail outs, to fail… then we could have cleaned up a lot of the debt mess and started clean.. The Austrian Economists have always taught that a boom cycle needs to be followed by a cleaning out of all excesses to start over again with a clean slate.. And then the growing can begin in earnest, not with Bill Bonner calls “Phony Money”  

So, where does that leave us this morning? The dollar is getting taken downward, the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel is getting ready to cut rates, which should make the dollar even weaker, And inflation is in the dark alley just waiting to jump out a scare the Bejeebers out of us!  Get this, spell check doesn’t like my word: Bejeebers… Who cares?

And the stock market shrugs it all off, and the sheeple just keep buying, because their investment advisor or whomever counsels them on stocks, keep telling the sheeple that “everything will turn out peachy”….. You know like when Big Ben Bernanke told us that the housing wasn’t a problem back in 2007?  I wonder how many people went ahead and bought a house in this time, only to find out that they owed more on the house after it had lost all that value?    That’s why it’s better to listen to some country bumpkin like me that sees things in logic, than some professional who has a dog to hunt in the stocks, houses, cars what have you he’s selling?  

Oh! And there’s one more thing that’s troubling me these days, and it’s what’s going on in Emerging Markets debt…  You see, that most Emerging Markets debt was denominated in dollars… But now China has gone to these Emerging Markets and told them they would refinance the loans in renminbi… China has told them all about how the U.S. froze Russian asset, etc. and it could happen to them even easier… So, you can guess what’s going on here, right? The Emerging Market Countries are swapping their dollar denominated loans to renminbi denominated loans….  That means they’ll be even less use for dollars going forward… 

I’ll have something more on this tomorrow, it goes back to my writing days (on the side) for the Sovereign Society… That was more than 15 years ago! So, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel… 

The U.S Data Cupboard this week will be a busy week for data prints… It all starts today with Factory Orders, Job Openings, and the Fed Beige Book, which used to mean something to the markets but these days, no one pay attention to it any longer… Tomorrow, we’ll see the ADP Employment Report for August…  And the latest print on the Trade Deficit, which should be HUGE because Co’s. Have been stockpiling inventory ahead of the Tariffs…   And then on Friday, it’ll be a Jobs Jamboree Friday, with the BLS printing their fantasy number on Jobs created in August…  Remember, the new head of BLS has taken over and this will be his first print of Jobs numbers… Wanna bet that there were changes to the fantasy jobs the BLS adds to the surveys?  

To recap… The dollar is getting sold, (although it’s rallying today) interest rates are coming down, The long end of the bond market is going to visit 5% soon, and the debt just continues to grow… Gold and silver seeing these things are attracted many new and old buyers , and are heading higher… and the SPT’s are shocked to see this happening before their eyes…  But remember, the wolf is always at the door?

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is from Yahoo Finance, and it talks about how the Manufacturing sector is in deep dookie… and it can be found here: 

Or, here’s your snippet: “The US manufacturing sector continued its sluggish year in August.

Data out Tuesday from the Institute for Supply Management showed the ISM’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 last month, an increase from the reading of 48 seen in July but below estimates for a reading of 48.9, according to Bloomberg data. Readings of less than 50 on the index indicate a contraction in activity in the sector.

This marked the sixth straight month of contraction in the US manufacturing sector, according to the ISM’s reading.

The new orders index within the ISM’s report, however, rose to 51.4, indicating expansion, and marked a strong uptick from the 47.1 seen in July. The production index fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July.

“In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate, with new orders growth the biggest factor in the 0.7-percentage point gain of the Manufacturing PMI,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s survey committee. “However, since production contracted at a rate nearly equal to the expansion in new orders, the Manufacturing PMI increase was nominal.”

Respondents to the ISM’s survey widely cited tariffs as putting pressure on their planning, sales, and costs.

One contact in the electrical equipment industry told the ISM they’ve raised prices by 24% so far, but these increases will only offset tariffs, meaning their margins won’t actually improve as a result.

“In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce,” this contact said. “These are high-paying and high-skilled roles: engineers, marketing, design teams, finance, IT and operations. The administration wants manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but we are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It’s survival.”

This report also showed, however, that tariffs continue to act as a headwind for manufacturing. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s chief business economist Chris Williamson said in the report that factory inventories rose on concerns over coming price hikes and potential supply constraints.”

Chuck again… tariffs… see what they can do for us? Yeah, maybe our revenues from tariffs might make a difference, but I doubt it given all of the legal entanglements coming from them… I guess, we’ll have to wait-n-see?

Market Prices 9/3/2025: American Style: A$.6538, kiwi .5867, C$ .7246, euro 1.1643, sterling 1.3414, Swiss $1.2430, European Style: rand 17.6326, krone 10.0398, SEK 9.6406, forint 337.49, zloty 3.6487, koruna 20.9733, RUB 81.42, yen 148.63, sing 1.2886, HKD 7.8013, INR 88.06, China 7.1454, peso 18.69, BRL 5.4482, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.26, Oil $64.24, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $40.91, Platinum $1,412.00, Palladium $1,165.00, Copper $4.63, and Gold… $3,543

That’s it for today… I know, I know the last two Pfennigs have been more of a “let’s see what Chuck as to say” and not your usual discussion about economies, markets and dolts… On Sirius XM the Classic Vinyl station had the Top 500 classic rock songs looping over and over again so if you missed a portion of the countdown, you could pay catch up… Lots of the song played are on my phone…  The Top 2 songs were Hotel California #2, and Stairway To Heaven at #1… In case you wanted to know… I actually got out and drove my car a couple of times over the weekend. I love to drive… Ever since I turned 16, and found that driving gave me freedom… I still take long drives to nowhere just to feel like I’m escaping and getting away!  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: Don’t Take Me Alive..  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and will Be Good To Yourself!   I know I missed Pfennig Tradition last Thursday when I signed off and didn’t end it with: An I’ll see you in Sept”…   oh well, I do my best… 

*currencies and metals rally on Friday

• What on earth is a mother to do?

Good Day… And another Super Sunday! Don’t get used to this, because I’m not going down this rabbit hole… I’m writing to you today, because I told you that I would write next on Tuesday, but the doctor changed that schedule, and I’m due at the hospital for tests bright and early Tuesday… Paul McCartney and Wings greets me this morning with their song: Nineteen Eighty-Five

I used to be able to play that song on the piano, but like my guitar I left it behind once I was diagnosed with cancer… Being that there were bigger fish to fry… Or something along that line…  I know, no excuses, as the old Football coach used to bellow, Excuses never won a game for anyone! 

Ok, enough of that… Well, Friday brought me to thinking about some interesting thoughts that I’ll lay out for you here, which is the reason I’m writing today…  But first…

First off, the dollar fought back after getting sold for two days last week and looked like it would win the day…  the day gaining on Friday. The BBDXY finished the week at 1,201, after a slew of data brought the dollar’s brief rally back to earth, and the dollar ended Friday, flat…   

Gold went into the 3-day weekend gaining a bit on Friday. Gold was up $32 and closed at $ 3,448. Silver saw its time above $40 short-lived on Friday but did gain 71-cents and went into the weekend at $39.73.  Gold is eyeing $3,500 and Silver is eyeing $40, and I do believe that tomorrow while the U.S. markets are closed and there will be no SPT’s around to stop the foreign markets from taking both metals over their next plateaus…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see tomorrow, eh?

The price of Oil went into the weekend trading with a $64 handle… That’s a two-day mark for Oil, which has seen every attempt, prior, knocked down to the $63 handle… So, good for you Oil!

And the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.23% yield into the weekend… 

There were no overnight markets on Friday night, so that’s where we stand until Tuesday… There will be foreign markets open on Monday, but I doubt they will move the meter much… 

OK, I’ve beaten around the bush much too long here… The first thing I was to talk about are house prices…  But first, let me take you back to 2002, when I wrote a white paper title The Decline of the Dollar… In it, I listed all the things stacking up against the dollar, which at the time had been in a long strong trend that had lasted 7-years… One of the things I listed was that I thought that Home Prices were in a bubble and would soon come crashing down… 

This was 2002… the housing bubble didn’t crash until 2007…  But the point I’m making here is that I saw it first, and chronicled it, right there in the white paper…  That’s to say that I think I have a finger on the pulse of Housing…  And I’m not even in that business! 

Ok, so the Case/Shiller Home Price Index has taken a fall…  I’ve chronicled here in past Pfennigs each time the index is up for a print that the previous month saw home prices slip, and this month should be the same… So, there’s been some slippage, but the June HP Index dropped 7 percentage points, and to me this is not slippage…  Home prices grew at the slowest pace in two years, reflecting, in my mind, extraordinarily weak demand… 

So, I’m climbing out on a big fat limb here and saying that Housing is due for a correction and this looks like it is it…  I’m certain that someone with far more gray matter than me, and being a wordsmith, would be able to explain this to you better than I, but what would you have to pay for those words?   

The second thought I want to share with you something that I’ve talked about for some time now, our debt, and how we finance the debt… We all know we finance the debt with the sales of Treasuries…  I came across this last Friday, in friend, Dave Gonigam’s 5-Bullets with comments by Stefan Gleason: “Trump can bulldoze his way through resistance within the U.S. — and he can strong-arm foreign allies into concessions, until they cease to be allies — but there is one great immovable power that is beyond his reach.

“He cannot force the global bond market to buy U.S. Treasuries and fund his debt.”

That means Treasury notes and bonds are a long-term loser”

Chuck again… and that means.. Who will be left to finance our debt? The only answer to that is we will… The Fed/ cabal/ Cartel will have to print Trillions of new dollars to be the buyer of last resort…  That means we are self-funding the spending of Congress and the POTUS, and if the last visit to the la-la-land of Fed printing dollars to buy Treasuries from failing banks, we all know what became of all those dollars, right?  Inflation… and if that inflation was enough to cause many to default, then this inflation will be the worst we’ve ever seen on our shores… 

Sticky inflation becomes runaway inflation… Can you deal with that?  I if you can then you have stockpiled Gold… I’m just saying… 

So, in the end the Mar-a-Lago Accord I talked to you about the other day, will take a back seat to these two thoughts… And with that I’ve said enough for a Sunday, no go to mass, or church, or temple, or whatever you do on a Sunday morning… And pray that these things never-ever happen…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the PCE for July, and the Core reading rose to 2.9% (that’s less food & energy)… The all-in PCE (personal consumption expenditures) stayed steady at 2.6%…  All, in all I think that this is not enough to stop the FOMC from cutting rates this month…  We also saw Person Income & Spending, which showed why consumer debt is rising and spending is rising…   Hmm… isn’t both of them rising good, I hear you ask?  Well… I guess, as long as spending and expenditures are the same, but in this case we spent more than we made, and that’s not good… 

And one of the small reasons that 2^nd QTR GDP was revised upward to 3.3%…  The thing that makes up a lot of the GDP calc is Gov’t spending, and we all know that Gov’t spending was through the roof in the 2^nd QTR… So, take this GDP print with a grain of salt… It’s backward looking for one, and two, it’s full of traps to get you believe the economy is peachy keen… The Stupid Consumer Sentiment for August fell to 58.2 from 61.7…  At least that’s moving in the right direction as consumer feels that the sticky inflation is really causing them problems… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, Gold & Silver shot to the moon… and Chuck gives us his two thoughts that keep him from having a good night’s sleep! 

Market prices , on Friday,  8/29/2025: American Style: A$ .6540, kiwi $.5893, euro 1.1686, sterling 1.3504, Swiss $1.2472, European Style: rand 17.6566, krone 10.0587, SEK 9.3877, forint 339.41, zloty 3.6580, koruna 20.9296, RUB 81.06, yen 147.05, sing 1.2840, HKD 7.6956, INR 88.20, China 7.1307, peso 18.65, BRL 5.4297, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $64.01, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.73, Platinum $1365.00, Palladium $1,129.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $3,448

That’s it for this Sunday… With each day that passes the temps warm up a bit more than the previous day, but still not regular August summer heat weather!  I missed my heart doctor’s appointment on Friday… UGH! I simply lost track of the time, it was morning, and I was eating my Raisin Bran, and said, oh-no! I’ve been eating a lot of cereal since these stomach problems began… Something sweet and a bit good for me….  At the end of this next week, I’ll be traveling to San Diego for a wedding… My son, Alex grew up and his best friend was Jack, who we took on vacation with us a few times…  Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome I hope you have a Super Sunday and a great holiday, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday
• The Fed Independant? NOT!

Good Day… and a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals got good pitching last night, but no hitting and lost 2-1. UGH!I had a dear friend of mine contact me yesterday and wanted to how to subscribe to my letter… I was honored to say the least! I hope she does! ( I gave her instructions) It’s been quite a few years now since a marketing dept attempted to market my letter… So, I’ll take any additions that come my way!  The late Great Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island… 

Well, the dollar was skitterIsh yesterday, and tried to go lower, but… I’m sure the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) saw to it that it didn’t slide too far. The BBDXY lost 1 index anyway, and the index ended the day at 1,204…  It didn’t matter to Gold, which gained $32 and closed at $3,397, which is so near to $3,400 that it could spit in $3,400’s back yard… Remember what I told you yesterday, the SPT’s have an axe to grind with Gold going over $3,400, so if it doesn breach that level today, then the SPT’s will be out in force… 

Silver also gained 41-cents yesterday, and closed at $38.88, as Silver tries like the Dickens to get to $40… Because once Silver gets over $40, I feel the next stop will be $50… To Infinity and Beyond! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 throughout the day yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buyers… Really? Right? But it did and the yield on the bond fell to 4.22%

In the overnight markets last night… the skittish dollar yesterday carried over the overnight markets and the dollar got sold with the BBDXY down 4 index points to start today at 1,201… The euro had been tugged and pushed around like a rag doll recently, but with the dollar weaker, the euro is looking healthier…  Overnight, Gold was bought in the early markets and is up $9 to start our day… and Silver is up 18-cents… Both metals have gone past phycological level overnight, with Gold over $3,400 and Silver over $39 at this point, before the SPT’s arrive at their desks…  

Well, there was news yesterday that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is going to lighten up their supply of U.S. dollars and swap them for euros…    That can’t be good news for the dollar, but excellent news for the Eurozone and the euro! 

And in another news story that I read, Larry Summers (we all know him as the former Treasury Sec under Clinton who coined the phrase “A strong dollar is in our best interests”   He stated that he believed that the POTUS’ firing of Lisa Cook (The fed head) for lying on her mortgage application, will be historic…  No kidding, Mr. Obvious!  See what happens when you’re put out to pasture you’ll try anything to get your mug on TV again! 

Circling back to the dollar…  you know, with inflation continuing to rise again, this is going to be a nail in the dollar’s coffin…  and will be a bonus for Gold… So, keep that in mind when the inflation numbers are released again… 

Well, yesterday the 50% tariffs on India became a reality and so did our Political friendship with India… India will just turn to China (whom they’ve been fighting conflicts with for a very long time) and send their goods there… China will be glad to receive them with no strings attached…  I’m just saying…

The heat on the Treasuries with the POTUS firing the Fed Head, hasn’t really fazed the 10-year Treasury too much, instead the markets are taking it out on the 30-year Treasury… The long bond as they used to call in on the Bond Desk.  The gap between the 5-year and 30-year yields is steepest since 2021.   And that was during the plandemic… Yes, I meant to spell it like that… more is coming out as time goes on about the whole mess so read up so you know….  

The thing that really gets me is the repo market was in deep dookie in Sept 2019, and with each month the numbers were looking like the who repo market would implode, and then COVID appeared, and everyone’s attention shifted from the problems in the repo market to the virus…  What happened to all those problems? Did the Banks get some secret money to make it all disappear?  I don’t know… But I wish I did!

And don’t look now, oh go ahead and peek at the currency roundup if you want to, and you’ll see that China’s renminbi has been allowed to strengthen to 7.13… That’s the highest-level VS the dollar that I can remember short term, without going to Google and asking, which I’m in no mood to do, so there! The Chinese are selling less to the U.S. because of the tariffs, so why not allow your currency to gain on the dollar?  That’s how I see it… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today gets back to economic table today with first, the usual Thursday fare Weekly Initial Jobs Claims…  And then a little later this morning we’ll see the fist revision of 2^nd QTR GDP… A lot has happened to the economy since the 2^nd QTR, so truthfully, I don’t see any reason to go through all this! 

To recap… The dollar looked jittery yesterday but Chuck thinks that the PPT helped the dollar get through the day with only a 1 index point loss in the BBDXY.. Gold & Silver had banner days…  And if those dastardly devils (SPT’s) left the metals alone to trade on their own, we would be having this conversation bout banner days nearly every day!  Larry Summers throws in his 2-cents… And the Swiss National Bank is going to sell dollars and buy euros… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve talked about the POTUS’s firing of Lisa Clark (Fed Head) two times this week, and the more I thought about it the more my thoughts came around to this email I received from the good folks at GATA. And it’s about that and can be found here: Why Trump’s challenge to Fed’s independence may make gold the ‘safe haven of choice’ for investors – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “President Donald Trump made a move to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, potentially undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds — and boosting the appeal of gold and other assets perceived as safe havens.

“The Fed’s independence is its calling card, and the move to fire a governor is a direct assault on the Fed’s ability to manage monetary policy free of political motives,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management.

When you start to erode faith in monetary policy for the world’s reserve currency, you are playing with fire,” he told MarketWatch. “If the market believes the Fed is making policy in reaction to direct political influence, U.S. assets will become less attractive.” …

Stefan Gleason, president and chief executive at Money Metals, told MarketWatch that the notion of Fed independence is a “myth.”

The Fed is “an inherently political institution, not only because the Board of Governors is appointed by the president with Senate confirmation, but our entire monetary system is now political in nature,” he said. “We no longer have sound money backed by gold, but political money, where policymakers centrally plan the economy via changes to monetary policy.”

That won’t stop some investors, however, from clamoring for alternatives if trust in the Fed is broken, risks to the U.S. dollar and bonds rise, and inflation climbs.

Traditionally, higher inflation has been hedged by real assets — commodities, including gold, oil, and industrial metals, said BNY’s Robert Savage.

Gold just might top that list. “Gold would be the safe haven of choice” for investors if the Fed were ever to lose its independence, said Chris Gannatti, global head of research at WisdomTree, which sees any threat to Fed independence as a “powerful catalyst for gold demand.”

Chuck again… Mr. St. Aubin (above) had better watch saying bad things about the POTUS, he might get fired too!  And this article is behind a subscription wall, so I brought you what I could, but in the end I have just one question… Got Gold?

Market Prices 8/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6527, kiwi .5873, C$ .7265, euro 1.1671, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2479, European Style: rand 17.6308, krone 10.0613, SEK 9.4828, forint 339.85, zloty 3.65067, koruna 21.0355, RUB 80.31, yen 146.93, sing 1.2833, HKD 7.7958, INR 87.62, China 7.1316, peso 18.61, BRL 5.4119, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.94, Oil $64.09, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.06, Platinum $1,358.00, Palladium $1,119.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold… $3,406

That’s it for today… And this week!  I was supposed to be going to lunch with my classmates this afternoon, but instead I’ll be at the hospital getting stuck with needles… I didn’t choose the doctor’s visit, but after I told her of my problems since the last infusion, she said get into her STAT! This will be a long 4-day holiday weekend as Monday will be Labor Day…  The annual Butler Family Labor Day BBQ and Pool party won’t be held this year.. In fact, it has only occurred one time since 2020…  Last year I was too under the weather to have it, and this year too…   It’ll come back next year.. As the Cubs fans used to say, “Wait till next year!” Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Moondance…  (I love this song and used to be able to play it on my guitar!) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and all weekend, Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Buter

• currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• The SPT’s can’t stand Gold over $3,400

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Man, that was difficult to watch! My beloved Cardinals pitcher game up 8 runs to start the first 3 innings… That was downright ugly pitching, and the pitcher should be sent down the minors and forgotten about! Oh, there goes Outlook again telling me there’s a softer way of saying that! Shoot Rudy, if soft was what I was after, I would have said it so his feelings wouldn’t be hurt! I talked to my oncologist yesterday about how I’ve been since the last infusion, and she wants to see me immediately on Thursday…  (She secretly has a crush on me and can’t stand to have me away for a month! ) HAHAHAHAHAHA As If!  Chicago greets me this morning with their song: Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?   

It’s good for me to see I can still laugh at myself and other things…  My good friend, Rick B, sent me a tik-tok video clip of a SNL ski that was all about Beavis and Butthead from the 80’s… I laughed until I cried! 

Well, the dollar was sold on Monday night into Tuesday by 2 index points, and then proceeded to stay at down 2 index points all day Tuesday… So, no movement from the overnight selling… I wondered what was going to happen with all the jitters around the POTUS’s claim that he would fire Lisa Cook aka Fed head… Well, stocks got sold, but Gold got bought! Gold gained $29 on the day to close at $3,394

The $3,400 level for Gold has been a stumbling block and it’s time in my mind that the Gold traders take it past $3,400 and not look back!

Silver rode Gold’s coattails yesterday and gained 24-cents to close at $38.67… I’m waiting for all the Silver pundits to come out and tell us that this is Silver’s time to close the gap with Gold… That may happen, in fact Silver normally does outperform Gold when the two rally… That is outperforms on a percentage basis… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day with a 4.27% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… And once again, the SPT’s made sure Gold didn’t run past $3,400 as they hit Gold again and the shiny metal is own $19 to start our day today… Silver is really getting the snot kicked out of it and is down 41-cents to start the day today… UGH!   The BBDXY is trading in the same clothes as yesterday, and starts the day at 1,205…  The dollar’s flight has not connected to the metals this morning, and that’s one of the tell-tale signs that the SPT’s are at work… 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield stuck on 4.27% yesterday, and remains at 4.27% this morning… 

Circling back to Silver… I came across this and thought it best I shared it with you regarding Silver… “Physical investment is a structurally important part of global silver demand, and the most volatile. Notably, over the past 15 years, physical silver investment has ranged between a low of 157.2 million ounces (Moz) in 2017 and a record high of 337.6 Moz, established in 2022. With growing geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, and an increasing investor perception that silver is undervalued compared to gold, the silver price has experienced a 34 percent year-to-date increase. By comparison, the white metal is outperforming gold, which is up 28 percent, and Bitcoin, rising 18 percent year-to-date.” -sharps pixley

Chuck again… I agree, physical ownership is very important to not only Silver but Gold too… if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it… That was what a trader told me many, many years ago. 

Do you ever get the feeling that, here we are with the dollar on tenterhooks, the Debt unsustainable because of the debt servicing costs, and the overall confidence in it all is weak at best, but somehow, someway, just as we near the cliff, something will take place that brings it all back and gets people loving the U.S. again? 

I do, because I read a LOT, and come away with thoughts that we, as a country could very well bypass the default stage by some unknown miracle…  

Well, now there’s this that was reported on the International Man site…  The Mar-A-Lago Accord could be that “miracle”…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, and this is no spoiler alert, because I don’t have an inkling of what the Accord contains, but if rumors are true, it contains a way to reset the price of Gold, and to tie to the dollar somehow… 

So, I hope the powers that be don’t make us wait too long to find out the contents of the Accord… But I’m sure they will, they” have to play this out so that the dark shadows are cast on the U.S. and just when everything looks like it’s crashing in on us, they will pull out the Accord like a magician pulls a rabbit out of his hat, and Suddenly, the sky is blue, the sun is shining and there’s nothing but seashells and balloons … I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the July Durable Goods Orders, and just like I said they would, they printed negative -2.8%… Today’s Data Cupboard is barren, so there’s that… 

To recap… The dollar hasn’t moved in a day, but Gold & Silver sure has, as yesterday they rallied big time, and today they are seeing the SPT’s back at COMEX with arms full of short metals trades… I told you yesterday that the POTUS had stirred up Wall St by announcing that he had fired a Fed Head (Lisa Cook)… There’s never a dull day in the POTUS’s world… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article very interesting in that even the best credit worthy Americans are falling behind on payments. That article can be found here: US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments

Or, here’s your snippet: “(Reuters) -U.S. consumers with the highest credit scores are starting to fall behind in debt repayments, credit scoring company VantageScore said in a report published on Monday, in a sign that Americans’ financial health may be deteriorating more broadly.

Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.

In relative terms the sharpest increase in delinquencies was seen in superprime and prime customers who are typically considered the most financially secure, Rikard Bandebo, chief economist at VantageScore, said.

“Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.”

There has also been an uptick in late-stage delinquencies in auto loans and mortgages, as consumers grapple with budget strains, Bandebo added.

Defaults in early stage, which constitute late repayments between 30 days and 59 days, increased at the fastest pace in auto loans and mortgages.

“Defaults on secured loans, such as mortgages, typically happen only when the pressure on finances is too much for the consumer to manage,” he said.

Prime customers have credit scores between 661-780, while super prime customers have scores between 781-850, according to VantageScore.

Americans are getting more sensitive to price changes. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, has scooped up market share from rivals as wealthier consumers frequent the store more often, worried about the effects of tariffs on prices.

U.S. consumer sentiment also softened in August as households anticipated higher goods prices because of import tariffs. Inflation concerns have been weighing on consumers.”

Chuck again… Well, you know how I took care of not ending up on one those delinquent lists? Not have DEBT! I know for lots of people that’s not possible, but if you just put your mind to cleaning up your debt, you’ll be amazed how far you get! I got into a lot of trouble when I first said this years ago… Debt is Slavery…   But those folks in marketing that didn’t like that, aren’t around any longer, so neener neener neener…. I tried to explain to them that it was the title of a book, but they weren’t buying it… 

Market Prices 8/27/2025: American Style: A$.6467, kiwi .5822, C$ .7221, euro 1.1583, sterling 1.3426, Swiss $1.2394, European Style: rand 17.7582, krone 10.1832, SEK 9.5965, forint 342.63, zloty 3.6869, koruna 21.1815, RUB 81.34, yen 148.14, sing 1.2895, HHD 7.7832, INR 87.65, China 7.1627, peso 18.72, BRL 5.4316, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.65, Oil $63.65, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $38.26, Platinum $1,346.00, Palladium $1,111.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $3,375

That’s it for today… I have doctor appts on back-to-back days starting tomorrow… UGH!  I have to see a new doctor on Friday about my AFib…  that should be interesting… Today is doctor free! So, I think I’ll settle into my chair outside and do some reading in the warm sun… The temps here in St. Louis have really dropped from the usual temps in August… Strange? You bet it is! This weather reminds me of summers in Vancouver… Or San Diego…  Or Denver…  all places that normally experience temps like we’re having now… Radiohead takes us to the finish line today with their song: Karma Police…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!