Author: admin

• the dollar rallies on Wed. as The STUPID CPI remains sticky
• Chuck goes through the national debt…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, by virtue of Italy beating Mexico last night, the U.S. Baseball team will go to the knockout round and will play Friday VS Canada… Hmmm, that sounds familiar! I think it’s time to go for the trifecta! Some really good baseball has been played so far in this World Baseball Classic, especially since it’s so early in March! It’s raining right now, but the rain is supposed to stop for about 6 hours, more than time enough to get in my beloved Cardinals Baseball game today… The late GREAT Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island

The U.S. dollar got some love yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 5 index points, the euro lost the 1.16 handle and that’s about all you need to know about how the rest of the currencies are doing….  There are a couple of the Petrol Currencies that have held ground… the Norwegian krone, and the Brazilian real are the two Petrol currencies that have held their ground and not lost too much to the dollar this morning…  

Gold & Silver never got the chance to reverse their early morning losses yesterday, the SPTS were out in force, and the short timers that bought Gold & Silver for a short term gain, were the culprits that caused Gold to lose $15 on the day and close at $5,175, and Silver took a ride on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride and ended up losing $2.51 and closing at $85.57…

They say that Gold’s selling came from fading bets that the Fed Heads will be cutting interest rates…   I think that soon traders and investors will get over that thought and get back to buying Gold…  I’m just saying…

My friend, and editor of his newsletter, 5 Bullets, Dave Gonigam talked about the problems with “private Credit” yesterday… And then I came across this article that talks about how the private credit problems will lead to more investors fleeing to Gold…. A safe haven, if you will… but you don’t have to take my word on it, here’s a very brief snippet from Kitco.com: “Don’t expect gold prices to fall anytime soon, as risks building in private credit markets threaten to spill over into the broader global economy and boost gold demand once again, according to one market analyst.”

Chuck Again…. The price of Oil rallied on news that even though promised, no ships are being escorted through the Strait of Hormuz…. Oil ended the day with a $92 handle…  I wouldn’t get too upset with the price of Oil right now… There are many days of ships attempting to get through the Strait before we see Oil settle down… 

And the 10-year Treasury saw lots of selling, on the STUPID CPI  (and the real inflation rate) and the bond ended the day with a 4.20% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY starts today at 1,204… I really don’t see what the pundits are saying about the STUPID CPI… Most of what I’m reading is that: inflation has fallen… What? Really?  They have the intestinal fortitude to say that out loud? Well, I’ve said enough about eh ineptness of the BLS, so I’ll move on… 

Gold & Silver try to mount the rally horse again this morning, with Gold up $6 and Silver up $2.21   I’m really surprised by Silver’s rebound; it seems that Silver gets whacked and then comes back and says, may I have another? Not really, but it sure seems that way!  

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight and starts today with a $91 handle, and the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.20% yield overnight… 

I’m going to spend a bit of time this morning on our debt accumulation…  First, this from Fortune, which wasn’t behind their paywall….  “The U.S. Treasury’s borrowing showed no signs of slowing as the U.S. headed deeper into fiscal year 2026, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reporting that another $1 trillion was added to the federal deficit in the first five months of the year.

The monthly budget review from the CBO, updated to February 2026 and released yesterday, showed that the government is estimated to have borrowed $308 billion last month alone.

Of course, with more borrowing comes higher interest costs on the debt. Between October 2025 (when the 2026 fiscal year started) and February, the Treasury spent an additional $31 billion on net interest on public debt, compared to the prior year. As a result, in just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion.”

Chuck again… CBO also said, “This cannot be sustainable’: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO says”

This is getting ridiculous… our deficit spending that is…. I’m reminded that Einstein once said, “When you owe more than you can pay, it’s a powerful force for bankruptcy.”  if course he was talking about individuals, but this can play in this sandbox too! 

The taxpayer money that’s being spent on debt servicing is growing and growing and growing with nothing to stop the bleeding…. soon, I think we, as a country, will have to print more money to pay our debt servicing costs.. Really long-time readers know that I’ve been shouting from the rooftops for a generation about our national debt…  I used to have a conniption fit over a $6 Trillion debt… And that was many moons ago! 

But congress has no internal guts to do what’s necessary…  They have to cut spending so much that we book a surplus in our year budget, and then repeat it year after year, until this debt looks like something that we, as a country, can afford….  Because we certainly can’t afford what we have now $39 Trillion! 

OK, I’ll get off my soapbox now…. circling the wagons back to energy prices and rate cuts, for a moment… this from Bloomberg.com “Despite the prospect of releasing oil reserves, continued uncertainty translates into continued upside risk for oil prices, and that translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.”

Chuck again… the new to-be chairman of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, Kevin Warsh, will have a tough row to hoe with getting his fellow Fed Heads to go along with a rate cut…  so, we have that to look forward to, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the STUPID CPI that showed erroneously that is that inflation grew .3% in Feb and remained at +2.5% year on year…  Those numbers are a worthless as a handbrake on a canoe! There was no report on scheduled Fed Budget Balance, as the cooks were still massaging the numbers to report… 

Today’s Data Cupboard the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the U.S. Trade balance for Feb…  This was before the judge said no mas on the tariffs, so this should be a credit… I’m still wondering if the U.S. is going to rebate the tariffs they took in…  I’m just asking…

To recap… Currencies got sold, metals got sold, stocks got sold, and bonds got sold yesterday…  The dollar got bought!  Right now, the feeling in the markets is that the Fed won’t be able to cut rates, and that has the dollar getting bought… We’ll see how long that lasts…    And Chuck goes the whole 9 yards on our debt this morning… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, yesterday the BLS issued their STUPID CPI report and it showed no change in inflation… But, as I’ve explained for years, the BLS uses hedonic adjustments to make the inflation rate lower… And that’s what this article is all about and can be found here: Opinion: The real inflation rate? Try 3.3% — and that’s before the jump in gas prices. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “The federal government’s publication of the latest consumer inflation data saw Wall Street once again engaging in its favorite activity — spraying BS as far and wide as possible, and on an industrial scale.

Moments after the latest official data dropped, my inbox began filling up with comments from strategists so vapid that I could almost hear my brain cells crying out in agony and dying while I read them. These comments will soon be replaced by artificial-intelligence robots with no — I repeat, no — loss of utility.

Forget the “official” or trailing 12-month inflation rate. Yes, those are the numbers Wall Street likes to talk about. They aren’t just stale; to use Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy’s excellent new phrase, they’re as “dead as fried chicken.” They compare prices last month with prices 13 months ago. Who cares? In the real world, where normies live, all that people care about are two things: What’s happening to prices now, and what’s likely to happen next.

And on these questions, the latest data are either ominous (if you are an optimist) or bad (if you aren’t.)

Here are the key takeaways.

At the latest count, inflation is actually speeding up — it’s getting worse, not better. Last month, consumer prices rose at an annualized rate of 3.3%, the latest official data show. A month earlier, that rate was just 2.1%. Over the past three months, prices have risen at an annual rate of 3.0% — the highest three-monthly reading since October.

That figure is after applying statistical “seasonal adjustments” that have the effect of lowering the apparent inflation rate. If you look at the raw consumer-price index before applying these adjustments, prices between January and February rose at an annualized rate of 5.8%. Yes, really. Good times.”

Chuck again… The BLS calculations are BS in my opinion… Need I say more? You and I both know that inflation is stronger than the BLS tells us in their STUPID CPI report…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 3/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7134, kiwi .5904, C$ .7358, euro 1.1555, sterling 1.3389, Swiss $1.2807, European Style: rand 16.5574, krone 9.6762, SEK 9.2577, forint 335.43, zloty 3.6314, koruna 20.1189, RUB 79.16, yen 158.75, sing 1.2751, HKD 7.8269, INR 92.19, China 6.8704, peso 17.70, BRL 5.1569, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 99.34, Oil $91.01, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $87.12, Platinum $2,184.00, Palladium $1,677.00, Copper $5.88, and Gold… $5,183

That’s it for today and this week… it’s been a week of lies on top of lies… You can’t believe the news that comes out about the war, inflation, the economy, etc.  There are no markets, just manipulations… I stand by that statement! Well, it’s the U.S. vs Canada once more, this time in baseball… Hopefully the U.S brings their A Game! My beloved Mizzou Tigers will play the vaunted Kentucky today in the SEC Tournament… A bad draw for sure! Mizzou beat Kentucky in the early season before Kentucky got its legs under themselves… UGH!  And our Billikens play on Friday in the A10 Tournament… Good luck to both teams!  The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Isn’t Life Strange…  boy they hit the nail on the head with that title! I hop you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rebounds a bit on Tuesday
• What will the Fed Heads do… hike or cut?

Good Day and a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The U.S. baseball team lost their final pool game and now  have to see if they get to move on to the knock-out round…  I may have jumped the gun and become a Sooner with the report on the U.S. / Italy game, as it came on later than usual, and I went to bed with the U.S. losing… So, this morning, the first thing I checked was the final score, which was 8-6 Italy …. I guess the U.S. team was still celebrating their win VS Mexico the previous night to take Italy too seriously… and it cost them! Chicago greets me this morning with my favorite song from them: Hard Habit To Break… 

Well, the dollar recovered almost all that it had lost the previous day, yesterday. The BBDXY ended the day at 1,200… No Biggie, and to remind you once again, the weak dollar trend is NOT a One-Way Street! So, whenever the dollar does get a bid, it’s time to do the rope-a-dope… Or, better-yet… go out and buy more currency or currencies… I’m just saying…

The metals had a good day, with Gold gaining $55 and Silver gaining $1.29… Gold closed the day at $5,196 and Silver at $88.44… The SPTs were still out there like the wolf that’s always at your door… But they just kept Gold & Silver in check, if you will… 

Speaking of Gold… I read this yesterday on Motley Fool… The price of Gold just finished its 8^th consecutive month of gains… The last time Gold did this was a precursor to the dot.com bust…. So, there’s that…

I also read a piece on Gold that talked about how the runup from $2,000 to $5,000 is just the first leg of its trend… So, now, you have that in the back of your mind all day, you’re welcome! HA! 

The Potus’ words on Monday sure have carried some weight with the markets, but upon further review, I got to thinking… What if the war really isn’t nearly over like the POTUS stressed? Did he make those statements to get the price of oil back down quickly, and get stocks going again? I know, I’m being quite jaded here and very disrespected of the POTUS, as if that thought every crossed his mind is what oil traders and stock jockeys would be telling me…. 

I didn’t say he did say that to save Oil and stocks… I just asked the question… So settle down and quit throwing darts at my picture on the wall… Like I said when the war first broke out… I’m not a fan of war, but… I will support the troops… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar reversed once again and got sold overnight… Not by much but sold nonetheless… The BBDXY starts today at 1,199…  Gold & Silver are seeing some selling to start the day. Gold is down $4 and Silver is down $1.56… Those levels are prime for reversal today, and the STUPID CPI is the mechanism to get the job done…. That is, as long as the propeller heads print what’s true and not their usual bag-o-lies…

The price of Oil is trading with a $86 handle this morning… And the 10-year Treasury starts today with a 4.16% yield… 

I really do believe that the Fed Heads are contemplating if they should be considering a rate hike instead of a rate cut… Therefore, I don’t think the Fed/Cabal/Cartel will move rates either way at their next meeting…  And that would be appropriate in my view, for now… The Fed Heads are going to have to consider hike rates when the markets are thinking a rate cut eventually this year…  

But being the “disappointers” The Fed Heads with their new leader, Warsh, will go ahead and cut rates, and that should be the next leg up for Gold. 

I found this on Ed Steer’s letter this morning: Despite a price development recently perceived by many as disappointing, gold remains a magnet for investors, according to the World Gold Council. Although the precious metal has not been able to sustain a classic “safe-haven bid” recently, geopolitical tensions and changing macroeconomic conditions continue to generate sustained interest.

According to the World Gold Council, global physically backed gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $5.3 billion in February. This marks the ninth consecutive month of positive net inflows – and also the strongest start to the year since data collection began. Global holdings increased by 26 Tons to 4,171 Tons. In parallel, higher gold prices drove assets under management (AUM) to a new record of $701 billion.

Chuck again… Well hose folks buying Gold ETF’s fail to read my thoughts on ETF’s a month or so ago?  HA! As if!  I’ve realized over the years, that I can alert my readers and the other outlet’s readers that reprint the Pfennig each day, to the problems with something that they should be aware of, but the masses still do what I’ve told them to be aware of… I can only reach the dear readers that have signed up and stayed with me through the years…  But here’s the main problem with the ETF’s…  If push comes to shove and the Gov’t needs to liquify accounts the first stop will be the ETF’s because, you don’t really own the Gold that’s on your statement…  I could go on, but I won’t this morning…

I haven’t talked about China nor the renminbi very much recently, and today that’s going to stop…. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8917 compared to the previous day’s fix of 6.8982 …   The PBoC has really taken a sharp knife as opposed to an axe, to the renminbi in recent times…  the markets take over trading of the renminbi once the PBoC sets the trading rate for the day… 

The People’s Bank of China, belongs to the “people” but not the people you would think of… They belong to the communist party’s people…  And the PBoC’s main functions or to provide currency stability and to promote economic growth….  They are stringently watched by the Communist party… And therefore they wouldn’t make policy decisions without making sure they would not affect the economy in a bad way.  So… now you know! At your next cocktail party you can start talking about the renminbi and the PBoC and sound like a genius! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI for Feb today… What will the propeller heads have in store for us today? Will they show inflation rising? Or have they received their marching orders to show that inflation is in check? If I were a betting man, I would put money on door #2…   We’ll also see the color of the latest report on the Federal Budget for the month of Feb…  Without tariffs, the Federal spending will be humongous… I’m just saying.. 

To recap… The dollar fought back yesterday but not by much… Gold & Silver had good days despite the SPTs’ attempt to bring them in check…   Chuck throws out a question that he’s sure that ½ of the readers will understand that he’s just asking the question, and the other ½ won’t and be mad at him….  And Chuck goes through the Chinese People’s Bank and how the renminbi gets priced…

For What It’s Worth… Another day of FWIW articles lacking… But I did find this that goes well with my talk above about China…. China has found other avenues to send their exports and this report shows the numbers and can be found here: China exports sharply beat expectations as trade surplus in the first two months surges to highest on record

Or, here’s your snippet: ” China’s trade surplus rose to its highest on record in the combined January-February period, while exports massively beat expectations, underscoring the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy despite trade tensions with the U.S.

China typically combines January and February trade data to smooth distortions from the shifting Lunar New Year holiday.

The trade balance surged to $213.62 billion, compared with expectations of $179.6 billion.

Exports from China rose 21.8% year on year in the combined January-February period, beating the 7.1% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Imports rose 19.8% in the first two months from a year earlier, against expectations of a 6.3% growth, customs data showed Wednesday.

Government data showed that while trade with the U.S. plunged 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion) compared with the same period the year before, trade with the EU climbed 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan.

Trade with ASEAN also rose 20.3% to reach 1.24 trillion yuan.”

Chuck Again… this report really shows that China has found other avenues for their exports and that while they might be able to get by without the U.S. buying their goods, they will not grow the way they used to… 

Market Prices 3/11/2026: American Style: A$ .7158, kiwi .5929, C$ .7368, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3443, Swiss $1.2898, European Style: rand 16.3493, krone 9.6332, SEK 9.1835, forint 332.45, zloty 3.6697, koruna 20.9881, RUB 79.30, yen 158.33, sing 1.2724, HKD 7.8264, INR 92.04, China 6.8682, peso 17.59, BRL 5.1590, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 98.97, Oil $86.89, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $86.83, Platinum $2,189.00, Palladium $1,664.00, Copper $5.86, and Gold…. $5,188

That’s it for today… I sat out on the deck that overlooks the ocean yesterday and had my Bose speaker on loud playing songs and singing along… There wasn’t a home game for my beloved Cardinals, so, no ballpark for me! It was an absolutely beautiful day, a chamber of commerce day if you will!  Oh, and I was all by myself… I wouldn’t be so rude to force that on anyone else! The U.S baseball team fell behind early last night… I’m sure they were thinking “who the heck are these guys?”  Oh well, life goes on…  Starting Thursday, I’ll have 3 games in 4 days, and I’m sure my wife will not be a happy camper by the time the 4^th day comes and goes. There’s one of the cons (for her) of being married to me…  Baseball games!  Our Blues fell in OT last night… UGH! The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Everybody Plays The Fool…. I hope that you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The POTUS throws the markets for a loop
• Gold & Silver climb back on the rally horse…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I watched my beloved Cardinals and their bats come alive (finally!) yesterday VS the Orioles… It was a beautiful day, only made better by a baseball game!  The week my spring training buddies were here, we saw 4 games, and the Cardinals struggled to score a hit, much less a run! Baseball… What else is new?   Last night the US played Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, and the US came out on top….U.S.A.! King Crimson greets me this morning with their classic rock song: In The Court of the Crimson King…. 

Well, Gold & Silver were getting sold and getting sold short yesterday, in trading that saw Gold down nearly $100 and Silver down $1.33 to start the day… But then the selling stopped, and Gold fought back to end the day down $37 to close at $5,137 and Silver ended the day up $2.56 to,  close at $87.15… So, all-in-all, Gold came back strong, and Silver was even stronger! 

The dollar ended the day with the BBDXY giving back 2 index points to end the day at $1,201…  The markets got thrown for a loop yesterday when the POTUS decided to tell reporters that he thought the “excursion in Iran” come to an end this week….  If I were a betting man, I would take the over on that statement, because to me, we started it, and to finish it will take much more…  I sure hope I’m wrong on that, but my spider sense says otherwise…. 

The price of Oil, which at one point in the day, was getting near $120 BBL… settled back to close the day only up $4 to $94… I guess oil traders bought the “war will be over this week” statement hook, line and sinker… 

And the 10-year’s yield rise ended at 4.18% as the bond boys also bought into the “war will be over this week” statement and bought bonds, with he lead dog 10-year losing 8 BPS on the day and ending the day at 4.10%

In the overnight markets last night.. The dollar returned to its underly weak trend with the BBDXY losing 3 index points to 1,198…. Gold & Sliver have gotten back on the rally horse, with Gold up $37 and Silver up $1.37 to start our day today…  The POTUS really got the stock jockeys back on Happy Street yesterday, and took the wind out of the sails of Oil…  The 10-year Treasury starts today with a 4.12% yield, and the price of Oil has really dipped overnight to an $88 handle….  

Long-time readers know my affection for kiwi… The New Zealand dollar aka kiwi, for a very long time… There have been times when kiwi was the cat’s meow, and there have been times when kiwi was not… But according to This report: “New Zealand’s economy is set to outpace Australia’s.”   Chuck again, now that will be very difficult to do because the Aussie economy has pulled so far ahead of New Zealand’s that the relationship now seems less like a sibling rivalry… 

Here’s a report that long-time reader Bob sent me: “Australia, is arguably the most economically successful country of the 21st century. It has the 18th highest GDP per capita and, importantly, the 2nd highest median household wealth in the world, driven by strong government savings schemes and high-performing real estate markets.”

Chuck again… Well, it will take a good effort by New Zealand to over take the Aussies…  But if there’s anything that will get the kiwi’s riled up is a competition with the Aussies! 

So, my answer to this is to buy both the Aussie and New Zealand dollars…  In the last 11 year weak dollar trend, these two gained over 100% and I’m not kidding!  So, if history repeats itself… if the dollar continues in this underlying weak trend, you could be looking at two currencies that are hotter than a firecracker!  I’m just saying…

Do you know what next week’s anniversary is? It is the week that the U.S. shutdown for Covid…  And we were all relegated to our houses, and we all looked like bandits ready to hold up the stage….  That was 6 years ago… Already! Even a long as 2020 seemed to last, it has already been 6 years!  Where were you when you heard that you needed to go home and stay there?

And speaking of Covid brought China into my mind… Did you hear that China’s outbound shipments from ‌the world’s second-largest economy grew 21.8% in U.S. dollar terms in the January-February period, sharply up from the 6.6% increase recorded in December and blowing past the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 7.1% growth.

“Growth in clothing, textiles and bags exports was surprising, given their poor performance in 2025 amid challenges ​from Southeast Asia and South Asia,” said a leading economist.

China’s export momentum could accelerate further in the near term, with March data likely to show factories rushing shipments to the U.S. ​to exploit the Supreme Court’s tariff reprieve and Chinese firms muscling back into low value-added sectors like textiles.

So, China isn’t slowing down, much unlike the economy here in the U.S. Yesterday I reported that Retail Sales from January were negative… That goes with a negative Factory Orders, a weak Durable Goods Orders, and many other weak or negative economic reports previously printed.. 

And finally… Today marks 150 years since Alexander Graham Bell made the first telephone call from his Boston lab to his assistant in a nearby room. Can you think of any other invention that has been so vital and grown in ability so much in those 150 years?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still lacking with Existing Home Sales the pick of the day… and tomorrow we’ll see the color of the latest STUPID CPI…  The bean counters that put together the STUPID CPI have been told to get everyone’s mind back on rate cuts, after the jobs number last week.   So, I guess we’ll see if they obey!

To recap… The dollar & oil quit getting bought, Gold & Silver and bonds quit getting sold yesterday during the day… Gold & Silver got bought in the overnight markets, and the POTUS threw the markets for a loop, when he stated that “the war will end this week”…  Chuck is taking the over on that one…How about you?  The Kiwi’s are thinking they will overtake their kissin’ cousin across the Tasman, Australia in the next 2 years… Chuck thinks that’s quite an undertaking, but nothing spurs a kiwi more than a competition with the Aussies!

For What It’s Worth… Well, a slow day for FWIW worthy articles with the POTUS hogging all of the news  outlets with his statement that has really taken the OOMPH out of the price of Oil and put the stock jockeys back on Happy Street… But there was this since I was talking about the U.S. economy above that caught my eye, and it’s about just that the problems for the economy and it can be found here: Market Risks Loom Beyond Iran in a Fragile Global Economy – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Five things you need to know

Donald Trump said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon.”

Trump’s comments are sparking a reversal of yesterday’s big market moves: Oil is tumbling while stocks are climbing in Asia and Europe. US equities look poised to add to yesterday’s late-day rally.

Even so, oil production cuts in the Middle East are deepening, shaving about 6% off global supply. The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint remains at a near-standstill.

Some of the world’s biggest hedge funds suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in losses last week after the war against Iran hit portfolios across the industry.

Taiwan Semiconductor’s sales rose 30% in the first two months of the year, buoyed by the robust pace of AI infrastructure construction prior to the war’s outbreak.

Economic shock

Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran has injected a new and potentially long-lasting shock into the global economy at a time when investors were already grappling with an array of forces threatening to upend their confidence.

There’s the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology. There are the soured loans starting to pop up in the booming private-credit industry. There’s the softening of the US job market. And there’s the stubbornly high inflation that’s casting doubt on whether the Fed will be able to resume cutting interest rates — and possibly even force central banks in Europe to start raising them.

Each shock alone may be manageable. But together, they are creating new fragilities in global markets that no single policy lever can fix, making it different than, for instance, the rout sparked a year ago by Trump’s tariff rollout.

“That is the issue,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Even if Iran starts to fade into the background, we have several other issues to contend with.” —Denitsa Tsekova, Matthew Griffin and Miles J. Herszenhorn”

Chuck again… This article made me shiver even more than I was shivering previously! 

Market Prices 3/10/2026: American Style: A$ .7104, kiwi .5930, C$ .7364, euro 1.1632, sterling 1.3448, Swiss $1.2871, European Style: rand 16.2978, krone 9.5971, SEK 9.2118, forint 331.94, zloty 3.6599, koruna 20.9405, RUB 78.77, yen 157.87, sing 1.2731, HKD 7.8242, INR 91.58, China 6.8788, peso 17.56, BRL 5.1577, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 98.80, Oil $89.69, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $89.69, Platinum $2,111.00, Palladium $1,708.00, Copper $5.92, and Gold… $5,172

That’s it for today…  today is the birthday of my good friend, Rick Baur… Rick has been a steady spring training attendee every year with me since 2003 (the strike year doesn’t count)  I hope your day is grand today, Rick!  Rick is the guy that gave me the idea of how I could fix my internet problem with my laptop after I first got down here in Jan… Otherwise, I would have gone bonkers trying to get the Pfennig out each day! The sun is rising out of the ocean right in my sight of view.. Lots of clouds over the ocean this morning will mute the sun’s brilliance…. Golden Earring takes us to the finish line today with their song: Twilight Zone… I feel like this song is bang on with how I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone with the markets these days… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rebound on Friday
• But then get sold overnight…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a great weekend here down South… The U.S.’s baseball team is off to good start in pool play of the World Baseball Classic. This will be a hard-fought group of games with professional ballplayers scattered among the Global teams. My beloved Cardinals are finding that getting rid of their star players is NOT a good recipe… UGH! Creedence Clearwater Revival greets me this morning with their song; I Put A Spell On You… 

Well, the BLS tried to put lipstick on the pig last Friday, when they added 90,000 jobs to the surveys, but the pig was just too ugly, and the total jobs created in Feb were negative -92,000… That’s right the BLS let a negative report get through to the public!  You know I don’t like to start the letter with Data, but I just couldn’t pass this up…  

You would think that a weak labor report like that would do major damage to the dollar…. But NOOOOOOOO! The dollar rallied on the news, even though the rate cuts are now in the cards for later this year. The BBDXY rose to 1,203 on Friday to end the week, and I’m totally frustrated by this… I just don’t get their reasoning behind buying dollars… 

The U.S. Gov’t must have sent the BLS a memo saying that they needed to show a weak labor report so that when it comes time to cut rates, they can point to the weak labor… 

The price of Gold ended the week up $91 to close at $5,174. Silver also ended the week on good note, rising $2.20 to close at $84.59…  Gold & Silver are still on every geopolitical trader’s list to buy and hold, so add that to the Global Central Banks still at the Gold auction window, and you have a recipe for a strong price…  

Silver is another animal and it has long been the whipping boy of the SPTs… And whatever form of short sellers there are our there… What to do with this supply and demand feature of Silver is their problem, and as long as the Gov’t turns its head regarding Governing the COMEX, we’ll continue to see the supply and demand feature of Silver give Silver a boost, only to be chopped down by the SPTS…   I rest my case…

The price of Oil was the biggest mover to end the week… The price of Oil gained $10 on Friday and ended the week at $90.90… The finance minister of Kuwait, said that he saw the price of Oil rising to $150 because of the shipping problems in the Gulf region…  Yes, that’s just one man’s opinion, but an educated one and we should take that as a omen..

The rising price of Oil is going to play havoc with inflation, and that puts the Fed Heads in a conundrum…  they’ll have the labor market going to hell in the hand basket,  but inflation rearing its ugly head once again..  Hey! What did the Fed Heads think was going to happen with inflation when they cut rates when their target rate for inflation was still above 2% and…. Money Supply is still cooking with gas… Did they think that this will all work our peachy? They must’ve thought that, because they just kept on cutting rates while money supply was soaring…. 

Speaking of inflation… I haven’t spoken about inflation in a while, other than say that I thought it was going to rise, so I thought I would include this listing of inflation rates… And this report card was taken before the price of Oil soared again… check this out: 

Got this from dear reader John Dienner’s Ruminations news letter… Google him and sign up for his letter, I think you’ll see why, soon….

In the overnight markets last night…  All hell has broken loose! Sorry about the harsh language, but, it needed to be said. The price of Oil quickly continued its run upward from last week, and soon went above the $100 mark… I guess the finance minister from Kuwait is on to something…. 

With the price of Oil screaming higher one would think that the inflation ghouls would be selling dollars left and right… But that would be wrong; the dollar immediately received a bid and proceeded to climb to 1,210 in the BBDXY… That means the currencies are getting pummeled…  And Gold & Silver were not being treated very nicely last night, and this morning… 

Everything I read regarding this dollar rally says that it’s a “flight to safety”…  Isn’t that akin to running to the wolf because they’re scared? Safety in the dollar? What are they smoking? This is crazy! SERENITY NOW! 

The euro lost the 1.16 handle last night and was getting close to losing the 1.15 handle… I had checked the currencies on Saturday, and they all looked healthy, but then the trap door sprung last night and suddenly they have all returned to their sick beds… 

The dollar buying backed off overnight, and the BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,203…  The euro has recovered a bit of ground, but the rest of the currencies all look as though they need some panacea to help them. The Petrol Currencies are well bid, as long as you’re not the Russian ruble, or Mexican peso… The so-called “flight to safety” should include the Swiss franc…  I’m just saying… 

So the price of Oil is soaring and in another “you won’t believe it scenario” the yield on the 10-year has risen to 4.18%, in this case, the bond boys are looking at the price of Oil and thinking that inflation is going to come back stronger than before, and that the Fed Heads will have to hike rates, so they’re getting ahead of the curve… 

So, you see, that all hell has broken loose, and that not sane people are running the asylum… I had better just go to the Big Finish, because I’m going to get into trouble if I say anything else… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had more than just the Jobs report last Friday; it also had the delayed Retail Sales report for Jan…  And that report showed more rot on the vine of the economy, as Retail Sales were a negative -.2%…  And when you take out auto sales, the report showed 0% gain…. With the price of Goods so high, you would think that it would make up the lack of Retail Sales… But apparently, the lack of Retail Sales were so great that even the higher prices of goods couldn’t keep it from going negative. 

This week’s Data Cupboard starts the week with a whimper… There’s nothing to really report on here until Wednesday, and then we’ll see the color of the latest STUPID CPI, and even using all the tricks of the trade to keep inflation from showing up here, the report should show that inflation remained well-above the Fed Heads 2% target rate….  

To recap… The markets ended the week last week looking over its shoulder at the war in Iran and fearing the worst… The stock jockeys were looking for protection, and that saw Gold & Silver rally strongly on Friday to end the week. The price of Oil soared to a $90 handle, and the ten-year closed the week with its yield at 4.13%… Chuck talks inflation this morning, and doesn’t like the direction it’s going! In the overnight markets the dollar has rallied, Gold & Silver have gotten sold, bonds are getting sold, and the price of Oil has traded over $100! 

For What It’s Worth…  well, I have something a little different for you today… This is a link to a video interview with the head of Wheaton Precious Metals… He’s a very interesting person to listen to, and I suggest that you take the time to click the link and watch and listen…  you can find the video here: “We’re Consuming More Than We Produce” Silver Warning | Randy Smallwood

Or, here’s a snippet from the video: “Gold testing $5,400 is not a temporary surge; it reflects what Wheaton Precious Metals CEO Randy Smallwood describes as a structural shift in markets. Speaking with Kitco News at PDAC 2026, amid escalating Middle East tensions and a sharp move higher in oil, Smallwood said precious metals are entering a new phase driven by fiscal imbalances, currency concerns, and renewed demand for hard assets.

“I do think 5,000 is a new base for gold,” Smallwood said. “Gold is a currency. It’s been a currency forever.” He argued that the long-held view of the U.S. dollar as the primary reference currency is being reassessed as deficits widen and geopolitical risk intensifies.

Smallwood also pointed to silver’s multi-year supply imbalance, noting, “We’re consuming more of it than what we’re producing,” after peak silver production in 2017 and 2018. His comments come after Wheaton closed a $4.3 billion transaction last week to double its silver exposure at Antamina, positioning the streaming company for what he sees as a sustained monetary and industrial shift.”

Chuck Again…  what do you think about a $500 price for Silver? Supply and demand, folks… it’s that simple… 

Market Prices 3/9/2026: American Style: A$ .7018, kiwi .5910, C$ .7384, euro 1.1562, sterling 1.3349, Swiss $1.2838, European Style: rand 16.7757, krone 9.6833, SEK 9.2408, forint 353.65, zloty 3.7020, koruna 21.1258, RUB 78.16, yen 158.76, sing 1.2804, HKD 7.8169, INR 92.53, China 6.9169, peso 17.90, BRL 5.22381, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.24, Oil $103.10, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $83.06, Platinum $2,112.00, Palladium $1,575.00, Copper $5.75, and Gold… $5,084

That’s it for today…  I’ve been having problems with my breathing again… I talked to my heart doctor, and he wants to see me as soon as I get back home. I’ve had a sack of fluid around my heart for some time, but I think it’s time to drain it, which involves a needle stuck in my chest… Sounds awful to me, but then after all the operations I’ve had, what the heck! Our Billikens and Tigers both lost their last regular season games on Saturday, so it was not a good day for sports in the gateway city…  The USA baseball team plays Mexico tonight, should be a good game… And our Blues won late last night…  The Buckinghams take us to the finish line today with their 60s song: Mercy, Mercy… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and don’t get caught up in the chaos in the markets, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals have a mini rally on Wednesday
• Dollar traders get their toes out of the water quickly!

Good Day.. And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Another  day of battle with the Iranians and their followers have the markets thinking that this is going to last a long time…. Just as I said yesterday! I had a fun game of dominoes last night with friends, Tim and Anita and Di… Gus couldn’t join us; I hope he’s doing OK This morning… Faces greet me this morning with their song: Ooh La La….   

There was a TV commercial a couple of years ago that featured that song by Faces… The 60’s and early 70’s music continues to be alive in today’s world!

The dollar’s brief time in rally mode was brought to an end yesterday, with the BBDXY closing the day at 1,999. After spending the day above 1,204… Apparently saner heads thought about the conflict in Iran taking much longer than originally thought and decided to sell dollars. But the selling was watered down, and that doesn’t lead to getting the dollar back in the underlying weak trend. 

Gold started the day kicking tail and taking names later, but the SPTs came in and made Gold’s day difficult… Gold ended the day up $53 and Silver was right behind Gold closing up $1.29….

The price of Oil rose on the day to end the day with a $77 handle… I wasn’t too concerned with Oil’s brief drop in price and knew in my heart of hearts that it would recover, and it did! 

The 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise to 4.11%, so apparently the Fed Heads weren’t in doing their yield control … 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar traders bought dollars overnight and the BBDXY gained 2 index points to start our day at 1,201… So much for dollar traders dipping their respective toes in the water and seeing how far they could sell the dollar without invoking the PPT’s wrath… They sure gave up the ghost pretty easily, eh? This dollar strength is not going to last folks, so back up the truck and load up on currencies while you can… I, of course could be wrong on that but I doubt it… 

Gold and Silver are up to start our day today… Gold is up $29 and Silver is up $1.29…  If Gold & Silver ever get back to non-explosive days of gains they would be able to avoid the SPTs… That’s my opinion, on the whole shootin’ match!… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $77 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.11% yield…

The rise in bond yields has got Gold & Silver on watch as higher yields at times, switch fund flows to bonds and not metals… But the conflict in Iran has got Gold and Silver getting bought, which should be the mantra for the markets, but as we’ve seen in the past, sometimes things don’t go the way they historically go…  I really think the conflict, war, or whatever is going to last a long time, and will be drawn out for some time and put pressure on the price of Oil and inflation, as both will be rising, and then we have the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel scheduled to cut rates two more times this year… Doesn’t sound like a recipe for a strong economy does it to you?

And now we have the war widening… yesterday, it was reported by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that an American submarine had sunk an Iranian warship off the southern coast of Sri Lanka — a development that significantly widened Washington’s naval pursuit of Iranian forces and sent fresh waves of anxiety through global markets…  See what I mean? This is getting very ugly… 

Circling the wagons on Gold & Silver, I mentioned the bond yields rising and keeping a watch on Gold & Silver…  This from kitco.com: “The change happened in 2022. Before that, if you looked at the real rate on the 10-year – that’s the 10-year minus inflation – it had a beautiful inverse correlation with gold, going right back to the end of Bretton Woods, when the gold came off the dollar exchange.”

Steel said that the relationship has broken down completely in recent years. “Gold is not as sensitive to real rates, particularly on the 10-year, as it used to be,” he said. “And that’s also when we got a lot of retail buying in the market, elevated geopolitical risks, and also central bank buying.”

“I’m not saying that relationship won’t go back,” he added. “But it is not as strong as it used to be, for sure.”

Chuck again… so, if the relationship isn’t as strong as it used to be, that means the geopolitical pressures will guide Gold & Silver higher… ANZ says that Gold will reach $5,800 in the 2^nd QTR of this year… They also said, ““Although recent volatility has raised questions about whether gold prices have peaked, we believe the rally is not yet mature enough to reverse anytime soon.” 

And the dollar? I really can’t see the dollar rallying amid the scenario of rising inflation and rate cuts…  I’m just saying..   The Petrol Currencies are the currencies I would look to right now… Norwegian krone, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, and to stretch the meaning of Petrol Currency to Commodity Currency, you would look to the N.Z. Kiwi, and even the S. African rand….  You could also include the Mexican peso, but I shy away from that one personally… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment Report and showed that only 63,000 jobs were added to payrolls in Feb…  The BLS will blow this report out of the water on Friday, so get ready for their lies…  The ADP Employment Report showed 63,000 jobs added in Feb, and that was up from the Jan. Report of 48,000… But some pundits think that the increase was HUGE! C’mon folks, think… it was a rounding error of 15,000… That’s NOT HUGE! 

Today’s Cupboard has the 4^th QTR Productivity report and it should show a big drop from the 3^rd QTR of 4.9%…. I don’t like this repot because it simply shows how hard we as Americans worked…  And as usual the weekly Initial jobless Claims will print…   

To recap… The dollar’s brief rally didn’t last long and the selling of the dollar presumed yesterday… Gold & Sliver did gain on the day, but their gains were watered down by the SPTs… UGH! 

For What It’s Worth… Well above and yesterday, I talked about how I saw this conflict in Iran going on for a long time and causing Oil prices to rise and inflation to rise, and this in the face of future rate cuts.. Well, this article on Bloomberg.com talks about that very thing and it can be found here: Iran War, Oil Price Surge Put Global Economic Recovery at Risk – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery is closed. Qatar has shuttered the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas facility. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed. Oil and gas prices have already rocketed higher. Stocks have taken a hit. Treasury yields have risen as traders curb bets on Fed cuts.

In a severe scenario, Bloomberg Economics assumes that with Trump warning of a “big wave” of attacks, Israel aiming at the fall of the Islamic Republic and Tehran betting it can outlast its adversaries, the fighting grinds on. Intensified Iranian strikes set refineries and ports ablaze or knock out pipelines, bringing energy production to a halt.

The US could provide air defenses to help protect tankers transiting the Strait in addition to the naval escorts and insurance Trump promised on Wednesday but risks would remain high. A few well-timed swarm attacks by low-cost Iranian drones could be all it takes to keep the conduit effectively closed.

Middle East Energy Still Fuels the World

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Drawing on academic studies and the experience of past supply outages, Bloomberg Economics estimates that a 1% drop in supply pushes prices up by about 4%.

That suggests a prolonged closure of the Strait would raise prices by 80% from pre-war levels — taking them to around $108 a barrel. In a severe scenario, Bloomberg Economics assumes prices would stay that high into the fourth quarter of the year.

The range of uncertainty is wide. Major damage to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure — more drone strikes on Saudi Aramco’s facilities for example, or an overshoot in the market reaction, could take prices significantly higher. More limited destruction or a shorter conflict would mean they rise less or spike more briefly.”

Chuck Again… Well, a few weeks ago I made a quick observance of the price of Oil and said that I was going to buy a new gas guzzler… I didn’t…  And now I won’t!

Market Prices 3/5/2026: American Style: A$ .7047, kiwi .5923, C$ .7333, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3353, Swiss $1.2817, European Style: rand 16.5213, krone 9.6646, SEK 9.2063, forint 334.15, zloty 3.6868, koruna 20.0196, RUB 78.65, yen 157.51, sing 1.2772, HKD 7.8216, INR 91.60, China 6.8960, peso 17.63, BRL 5.2479, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 98.99, Oil $77.09, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $84.79, Platinum $2,179.00, Palladium $1,690.00, Copper $ 5.83, and Gold…. $5,171

That’s it for today and this week…  A short week for yours truly and I love it! No game at Roger Dean today, but we return tomorrow… Our Blues played in Seattle last night, which meant the game started really late for me… I tried to stay up and watch it, but I only made 2 periods…  I checked the score this morning, and the Blues won on the road! Yahoo! The score was 3-2…  The Blues haven’t won too many games on the road this year, so that was good! And our St Louis U. Billikens won their last home court game of the regular season last night… I really like this team and hope they go far in the tournament!

Sly and the Family Stone take us to the finish line today with their great song: Hot Fun In The Summertime… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar rallies while Chuck is gone!
• Oil shippers are scratching their heads…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Welcome to March, one of my favorite months, and I’m glad to be back…  I actually had a dear reader send me a note that said, “I haven’t gotten a Pfennig since 2/218″…  It does seem like a long time ago, but it isn’t in reality… I had a wonderful time with my spring training buddies here for a week to go to games and sit out on the balcony at night and talk… Weezer greets me this morning with their song: Island In The Sun… 

Well, I was all prepared to tell you in my first pfennig back, that Gold & Silver were well on their way to full recovery after the engineered takedown at the end of Jan.  BUT NOOOOOOOO! The SPTs had something up their sleeves and took Gold & Silver down by large amounts yesterday. And Gold & Silver weren’t the only metals taken down; Platinum, Palladium and Copper all lost major ground yesterday…  When I left, Gold was $4,922… And Silver was $75.65… So, even with the SPTs taking them down again yesterday, they are still of greater value now than when I left…. 

The PPT was out in force on Monday this week, and that the dollar hasn’t looked back since… With the U.S. joining Israel in bombing Iran, the dollar was on tenterhooks, and looking to fall. But then the PPT stepped in and bought dollars and the dollar hasn’t looked this healthy in a while… The BBDXY closed yesterday at 1,204 and it was 1,183 when I left, so the PPT put the fear of God into dollar traders and they decided that shorting the dollar was in their best interests as long as the PPT was there to stem the slide… 

The one commodity that we track, that has had a strong reaction to the new attack in Iran is the price of Oil… Oil ended the day yesterday at $75 and it was $64 when I left…  The price of Oil was up to $77 at one point yesterday, but I guess some profit taking took over at the close… 

And the 10-year Treasury ended the day with a 4.06% yield, after falling below 4% last week… a friendly reminder, yield up, means price of bond is down… 

In the overnight markets last night… Gold & Silver are back to doing what they were doing before being interrupted by the SPTs yesterday… Gold is up $97 to start our day, and Silver is up $3.90. This is absolutely ridiculous that the SPTs are allowed to do what they did yesterday…. And I’ll tell you that the selloffs in late January and yesterday are simply attempts to save the SPTS from major margin calls… In the event of the late January selloff, they SPTS HAD received their margin calls, and they would have gone bankrupt if they had to pay them… instead, they engineered a massive selloff and brought the prices back down to eliminate the margin calls…  The prices of Gold & Silver were close to generating margin calls again before yesterday’s sell off…  

I sent an email to Ed Steer and said that the selling was very ugly… He replied, “Let’s hope this is “da boyz” last swing at the fences”….  I thought, boy wouldn’t that be nice…. 

The dollar, overnight, has been sold, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,9999…  So, dollar traders are stepping their toes back in the water to test just how far they can take the dollar down before triggering a response from the PPT and the Exchange Stabilization Fund…  

The price of Oil has slipped back below the $75 handle to start our day… The Iranians have closed the strait of Hormuz, and so shipping of Oil around the world has been slowed greatly… The shippers have to rethink their routes and this will delay many countries from receiving Oil on time… Good thing that winter is over in the Northern hemisphere…. I could talk for hours about Oil but I reserve my thoughts here, for this is not the time or place… 

And the 10-year Treasury bumped higher in yield to start our day today trading with a 4.08% yield… I sure wish the Fed Heads would leave Treasuries alone and quit their “yield curve maintenance”…  But then everything in the world is manipulated these days… So, why not Treasuries?

Well, we stuck our necks out again… This time in the Gulf Coast, with Iran… This conflict had been brewing for some time now, and finally came to a head over the weekend… I’m not a fan of war… So, I’ll come right out and say that now, but I also believe that any war that the U.S. gets involved with I’ll support the troops to the end.  So there’s that!

There have been many articles that came across my email box while I was gone… I didn’t read them because I was on vacation from the markets and chaos in the markets every day…  So, yesterday, I decided I would get caught up with them and I got lost in the words… There are a lot of theories out there that talk about how the world will be caught up in the Iran conflict, so there’s that!

The Swiss franc was the lone survivor of the currencies during this dollar rally… The Petrol currencies, minus the Russian ruble, have also held their ground vs the dollar, currencies like the Norwegian Krone, and Brazilian real seem to have fended off the dollar…  Now, if the dollar goes back to getting sold again, then the Petrol currencies will really have the wind in their sails!  I’m just saying… 

I don’t have much for you today as I’m still trying to get “back in the saddle”… So, we’ll go on to the BIG FINISH and start anew tomorrow. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard while I was gone, wasn’t kind to the U.S. economy… Only the ISM Manufacturing Index showed a gain. Factory Orders were negative, and everything else while I was gone was in bad shape… Today we’ll see the Feb ADP Employment Report…  This is an important report but the markets dont’ see it that way, but they will… One day in the future….  And the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel’s Beige book will print, which is a review by the local Fed Offices of how the economy is doing in their region.  Not really an important piece for the markets… 

To recap… Everything for Gold & Silver was going well, until it wasn’t yesterday… The SPTs came in and took all the metals down… It was very ugly as Gold was down $275 at one point, and Silver was down over $9… They came back a little as the day went on, and that was that… Chuck is back and that means he full of you know what and vinegar as he hasn’t kept up with the chaos in the markets while gone… 

For What It’s Worth… this came to me from the good folks at GATA and it’s about Gold & Sliver and it can be found here:Chris Powell: Canada, you’re a rich country, so stop insisting on being poor | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Please forgive the lack of a French translation for my remarks. I took four years of French in high school and still don’t know merde.

But since we met here a year ago things have changed dramatically for the monetary metals. For much of the last year gold and silver have been more or less soaring. I think I know why.

The violence of the recent rise in the monetary metals — gold up more than 70% and silver more than 150% in a year — typifies either the apocalypse or a short squeeze — and massive naked short positions in gold and silver, short positions long encouraged and underwritten by Western central banks, are exactly what GATA has been complaining about for many years. Those shorts started to be called for delivery after February 2022 when the United States froze Russia’s international foreign exchange assets.

Whereupon other governments and central banks as well as industrial companies began to realize that their assets in the Western financial system would no longer be secure unless they capitulated to ever more aggressive U.S. foreign policy. People outside the United States began to realize that their claims on gold and other assets in the Western financial system could not be relied upon. So they started to shift their assets into gold, which was to be kept in their own vaults, prompting the short squeeze, because most of the gold they thought they held at Western bullion banks was merely paper. That is, the gold didn’t exist.

The long-awaited scramble out of over-rehypothecated paper and into real metal had begun.

The naked short position in gold and other commodity markets may have been first identified in 2001 by the British economist Peter Warburton with his essay “The Debasement of World Currency: It Is Inflation But Not As We Know It”:

https://www.gata.org/node/8303

Warburton wrote: “How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil, and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200 billion, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause.”

Warburton saw that the major investment banks, often the enthusiastic tools of Western central banks, would help central banks suppress commodity prices with derivatives.

The British businessman and gold mining entrepreneur Peter Hambro confirmed Warburton’s assertion from his own experience in the gold banking business. In an essay written in 2022, “Don’t Forget the Golden Rule: Whoever Has the Gold Makes the Rules” —

Chuck again…  Good stuff from Gata’s Treasurer, and well worth the time to go through the entire thing…

Market Prices 3/4/2026: American Style: A$.7058, kiwi .5918, C$ .7323, euro 1.1644, sterling 1.3385, Swiss $1.2817, European Style: rand 16.3582, krone 9.6417, SEK 9.1820, forint 330.95, zloty 3.6600, koruna 20.9370, RUB 77.93, yen 157.07, sing 1.2744, HKD 7.8169, INR 92.14, China 20.6943, peso 17.59, BRL 5.2315, BBDXY 1,999, Dollar Index 98.81, Oil $74.72, 10-year 4.08%, Silver $86.08, Platinum $2,174.00, Palladium $1,721.00, Copper $5.93, and Gold…. $5,187

That’s it for today… Did you miss me? I missed getting up near dawn to write, that’s for sure! Well, my beloved Cardinals can’t hit; it’s that simple. They are very young and inexperienced and will be taken advantage of by Major League Pitchers this year… it’s going to be a loooooonnnngggg year for my beloved Cardinals… Maybe they’ll surprise me with spirited play… I sure hope so!   I finally ate a hot dog at the DUNE DOG restaurant yesterday. I had gone there for years, and always ordered something else other than a hot dog… It was good, with lots of chili and shredded cheese and onions… I think I’ll order it again the next time I go! The Steve Miler Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Living in the U.S.A… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself…

Chuck Butler

• the dollar drifts overnight

• reissuing bonds at higher rates..

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, this is it, for a while… I start my traditional Spring Training Vacation next week, and since I’ll be at the hospital for my infusion tomorrow morning, that means no Pfennig on Thursday, and then we’re into next week, so this is it…  I need this vacation, as the markets have been chaotic to say the least, and driving me crazy!  I have a quote from Grant Williams that you’ll want to see, later so I have that today… Lee Michaels greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Do You Know What I Mean?

It’s also what the Catholics call, Ash Wednesday, with marks the beginning of lent, and in addition, it’s also the Chinese New Year!  The Chinese will be on holiday all week, so no help from them with regards to keeping the SPT’s in line…  Which is why the SPTs have decided to take a few lbs of flesh from the metals this week… 

The dollar finished the day weakening yesterday after adding 2 index points to its figure earlier in the day… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,183…  Gold & Silver were subjected to more short selling yesterday, as Gold lost $126 and Silver lost $1.43…  The currencies, not named the Chinese renminbi and Singapore dollar, lost some ground to the dollar yesterday… But they are still looking better than they were for the first half of 2025!   The Chinese renminbi and Singapore dollar are joined at the hip, not really, but it sure seems that way!  One can’t get out of line with the other one, as they compete for exports… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some selling and the yield on the bond rose to 4.06%… 

Speaking of Gold… here’s the quote from my favorite read, Grant Willams, and his Things That Make You Go Hmmmm… “I step back from the noise surrounding gold’s recent surge to examine what’s really driving it—and why focusing on the price alone risks missing the far bigger story. Gold itself hasn’t changed. It remains what it has always been: an inert, apolitical store of value that has endured for thousands of years. What has changed—dramatically—is the monetary system in which gold is measured, as unprecedented debt accumulation, relentless monetary expansion, and repeated episodes of crisis intervention have begun to undermine faith in fiat currencies.”

Chuck again… if you don’t subscribe to Grant’s letter, shame on you! It does cost you a subscription rate that is more than worth it in my opinion!  You can subscribe here: Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Newsletter – Grant Williams

In the overnight markets last night….  the dollar drifted around the 1,183 figure in the BBDXY, with little movement up or down.  The currencies look like a horse in the starting gate, all ready to take off at breakneck speed, but being held back by the gate… There’s a lot of talk going around about how the Countries are going to debase their currencies going forward… I’m not buying it, but then I look at the U.S. and the U.K. And they certainly are getting all lined up to debase their respective currencies, but I’m not see other countries lining up to debase their currencies…  So, your diversification of your investment portfolio still is good… 

Gold & Silver are attempting to get back on the rally tracks this morning. Gold is up $44 and Silver is up .99-cents to start our day… I wanted Gold and Silver to rally today, my last day writing for a while, to go out on a good note…  So, hopefully the rinse and repeat cycle of short selling is over, for now… It certainly looks that way, but you never know with the dastardly SPTs… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $64 handle overnight… Range bound for sure… Waiting for the next shoe to drop regard the U.S. and Iran… Apparently, they have some agreement with heir negotiations, but I doubt they’ve discussed the Ballistic Missiles that Israel want wiped out… Iran isn’t going to give them up, so the negotiators will have to find another avenue to go down… 

The 10-year stayed at 4.07% yield all night and starts this morning at that level.  I have something for you on the 10-year a bit later this morning.  We, as a country, are really pushing the envelope here with the issuance of bonds to finance our debt…  It really scares the bejeebers out of me, and it should scare you too! This has gotten out of control, and the debt servicing (interest rate paid) is causing all kinds of problems with regard to how do we pay it?  Print dollars and buy bonds, that’s the recipe that the Fed Heads and Treasury are thinking is in their back pocket and ready to deplore at any time…  And that’s the thing that scares the bejeebers out of me… 

Ok, moving on… I read a report yesterday on the Japanese yen… Same ol’ problems that have plagued them for 3 decades now, but in this report the former head of the currency in Japan was quoted as saying that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had missed their opportunity to hike rates to bring inflation in check and bring about a more robust economy…  Yes, I truly thought that the BOJ would opt to hike rates not long after they did their first-rate hike in 30 years!  But then the BOJ has left the markets disappointed many times previously, so nothing new here!  

Recall when I told you the U.S. would be refinancing their debt as previously sold bond are now coming due? Well, the results are in…  The U.S. sold $54 billion of 10-Year Treasury notes at 4.18% to replace $25B of maturing 1.73% 10-year notes, pushing up amount outstanding by $29 billion.

This week, the $54 Billion of 10-year notes sold at auction replaced the $25 billion in notes sold at auction 10 years ago… And at a higher rate of interest! That bond, issued 10 years ago, was issued with a yield of 1.625%…   So, if any holder of those bonds sold before maturity, they took a hefty loss…  Remember, yield down= Price up… Yield up = price down…  Those poor souls…  the losses had to be quite hefty!

The U.S. is adding to its debt an additional $1 Trillion every 71 days…  That has got to stop, or we as a country go down like other countries that ran their debts too high for too long…  Or go away like the Dodo bird… 

The U.S. U.K, Japan and Eurozone have all run their respective country’s debts too high… Japan is he worst, followed by the U.K. And then the eurozone… The eurozone is at least addressing their debt problem and taking baby steps to correct it.. .At the pace they’re moving now, it would take a lifetime! But aren’t we really only concerned about our country’s finances? Of course we are! It’s the knuckleheads in Congress, the Treasury, and the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel that are not worried about the debt…  I on the other hand have been shouting from the rooftops about our increasing debt since I began writing the Pfennig in 1992…   

Yes, that’s the year that I began writing the first form of the Pfennig… Then it was quick notes about what was going on in the foreign markets for our salesmen, who when they arrived,  turned on their phones, and had to be ready to talk intelligently to the customers…  The salesmen began faxing the letter to their customers… It was a very small list back then… But then our Boss, Frank Trotter, had just designed and coded the website for Mark Twain Bank and he needed content…  Well, the Pfennig hit the nail on the head and so it began to be distributed on a wide basis!

Ok, back to the markets, sorry about going off on that tangent…  I saw that Alasdair Macleod had in his letter yesterday his thoughts on GDP… (the letter is behind a paywall, and I don’t subscribe!)  And I thought that later this week we’ll see an initial print of 3^rd QTR GDP, and that got me thinking about how GDP is calculated… First of all, it’s a backward-looking data point…  and one that has so many inputs that they get all meshed up with each other… But one component of GDP is Gov. Spending… Right! As if Gov’t spending helped the economy grow… but it’s there, and with the U.S. adding to its debt every day, GDP gets pumped up on Gov’t Spending…  So, when you see that GDP prints at 3.8%, you can be assured that a majority of that increase came from Gov’t Spending…   Just wanted to get that off my chest…

I sure left you with a pile of bad numbers for the U.S. economy yesterday, that one would have thought that the dollar would be getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair… But Noooooooo!  But not to worry, I truly believe that the dollar will return to its underlying weak trend, soon enough…  I’m picturing the cover of MAD Magazine and Alfred E. Neuman saying, “What Me Worry?” 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the delayed Dec Durable Goods, which I think will be negative…  We’ll also see the Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization prints for Jan… Which I don’t believe will give the dollar bugs anything to write home about…  So, we’ll see how the dollar reacts to this wave of bad economic data today…  There will also be the release of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes from their last meeting when they left rates unchanged…  We know of 2 Fed Heads that went against the chairman’s view that rates didn’t need to be cut at this time…  

To recap… Well, the SPTs continued to take a couple of lbs of flesh from the metals… Geez, I sure hope this rinse and repeat cycle ends today…  Bond losses for early sellers… Chuck explains…  And we just reissued $ 59 Billion of 10-year bonds with a yield of 4.18%, which is way over the previous 10-year bond’s yield was at issuance, which was 1.625%…  Do the math, we can’t continue to go on like this, folks….  And Grant Williams visits the Pfennig today… what a treat!

For What It’s Worth… OK, yesterday, I called the BLS liars when they said that the STUPID CPI had risen in Dec only 2.4%, down from the previous STUPID CPI print of 2.8%…  Someone at the Fed NY must have read the Pfennig (AS IF) and decided to print their own calculation of inflation and that can be found here: Has inflation really slowed? Not according to this new Fed study. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “An apparent slowdown in inflation since last fall has eased worries on Wall Street, but skeptics are yet to be convinced price pressures have largely evaporated. A new Federal Reserve study might add to the doubts.

The consumer-price index showed the annual rate of inflation decelerating to a nearly five-year low of 2.5% in January from 2.6% at the end of 2025, using the so-called core rate that omits food and energy. The core rate is considered by the Fed to be a better predictor of future inflation.

What troubles the skeptics are the lasting effects of the record 43-day government shutdown last fall. Government economists were unable to collect nationwide data on price changes in October, and they also got off to a late start in November.

By the time they started collecting prices in November, holiday discounts were in full bloom. Many prices were temporarily lower than usual.

As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics might have underestimated inflation in October and November, critics say. And that partly accounts for the lower inflation reading in January.

A new study by the New York Federal Reserve doesn’t directly weigh in on the hawk-versus-dove debate. But researchers at the bank use a proprietary price measure to try to pinpoint the underlying rate of inflation by stripping out any temporary factors, including the effects of the shutdown and limited data collection.

What did New York Fed researchers Martin Almuzara and Geert Mesters find? The rate of inflation in the U.S. stood frozen at 2.83% at the end of 2025 — still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

What’s more, the recent slowdown as suggested by gauges such as the CPI could be ”largely transitory,” they said.”

Chuck Again… I really, feel vindicated regarding the STUPID CPI…  And then, I doubt the Fed NY’s numbers too!  I truly believe that everyone’s inflation is different, but for the most part, I can’t see inflation below 10%

Market Prices 2/18/2026: American Style: A$ .7075, kiwi .6009, C$ .7331, euro 1.1840, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $1.2976, European Style: rand 15.9981, krone 9.4709, SEK 8.9741, forint 319.40, zloty 3.5612, koruna 20.4876, RUB 76.44, yen 153.69, sing 1.2679, HKD 7.8148, INR 90.68, China 6.9048, peso 17.11, BRL 5.2252, BBDXY 1,183, Dollar Index 97.22, Oil $64.06, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $75.65, Platinum $2,036.00, Palladium $1,735.00, Copper $5.77, and Gold… $4,922

That’s it for today and until March 3.  How will you function without me each day? HA! As always, you can go to www.dailypfennig.com  and read archived Pfennigs to hold you over until I return… Our StL U Billikens’ 18-game win streak came to an end on the road in Rhode Island last night… Ok, time to start a new win streak! I’ll be traveling back to my winter home alone on Saturday. This will be the first time I’ve traveled by myself since 2007… Kathy has accompanied me on all the trips I’ve made since then… 2007 is the year I was diagnosed with Stage 4 Renal Cell Carcinoma… In June it will be 19 years! According to the American Cancer Soc. I should be long gone by now…  I proved them wrong! The Rev. Al Green takes us to the finish line today with his song: You Ought To Be…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself, while I’m not here to remind you every day! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on the no more rate cuts idea
• The list of things going the wrong way in the U.S. is growing

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Yesterday, was a holiday in the U.S. for President’s Day… When I was a kid, we celebrated Lincoln’ birthday on Feb 12, and Washington’s birthday on the 22nd… But then some knucklehead in Gov’t thought it was wise to lump them together… I still don’t like it, didn’t like it then, and don’t like it now! These two presidents were icons at their time, and still are in my mind… Van Morrison greets me this morning with his great/ mega hit song: Moondance…

Well, the metals had to go through yet another takedown by the SPTs on Thursday, last week. Gold was sold by $100 and Silver by $8.47… It was a real ugly day for the metals, as they headed toward the weekend on a sour note. 

The news around the metals selling was a stupid so-called letter that Bloomberg got a hold of from Russia to the U.S. that called for Russia to come crawling back to the U.S.   Really? People believed this? I shake my head at this idea that Russia is ready to concede, to the U.S. 

The prompt from the SPTs in reality was the STUPID CPI showed that consumer inflation had dropped to 2.4% from 2.9%…  The reason for the drop was cheaper gas prices….  Really, they hung their hats on that?  The report showed that food and shelter had gained in costs… I don’t know where the propeller heads that calculate CPI found their gas cheaper, but I haven’t seen gas prices dropping enough to warrant a .5% drop in inflation… 

Gold & Silver fought back on Friday, and Gold gained $120 to end the week at $5,043, and Silver gained $2.13 to end the week at $77.57… Silver has definitely been the whipping boy these days… 

A quick look at Ed Steer’s Saturday letter where he posts the days of production needed to cover the short trades in each metal, tells me that the short position in Silver is falling… I mentioned last week that it was down considerably from the days when it would have taken 185 days of production to cover the short positions. Well, the number of days fell another 7 days last week, in Silver and 17 in Gold…  They are heading in the right direction, just slow as molasses… 

The price of Oil dropped on a Friday for the fist time in the last 3 weeks, as the Oil traders have given up the ghost on the U.S. attacking Iran after the markets close on Friday.  Oil ended the week trading with a $63 handle….

But the bond traders didn’t get the message about the U.S. not attacking Iran, for they bought bonds hand over fist, moving the yield on the 10—year to drop to 4.05%… I’m sure the Fed Heads were in buying the bond doing their “yield control” And they were left off the memo list of those who got the note about inflation falling… Either that, or, they are jaded like me, and didn’t pay any attention to the lower Stupid CPI print!

The dollar ended the week at 1,181, so it was basically flat on the day…  The data that day had a lot to do with the dollar not getting sold, as the rate cut bugs were sent back to the woodwork, and now the markets think that there will be no more rate cuts this year…  I guess, the bond boys didn’t see that report either, as they bought bonds as if there was going to be another rate cut… 

Yesterday, with the U.S. markets closed, the dollar got bought some more and really is getting on my nerves, as the dollar bugs are really celebrating the idea of no more rate cuts… The BBDXY gained 2 index points yesterday and finished the day at 1,182…  Gold & Silver were subjected to short selling yesterday and with the thought of no more rate cuts, the metals were in trouble all day even with the U.S. closed… Gold lost $49 and ended the day at $4,992, and Silver lost 74-cents to close at $76.58. The day had all the markings of an engineered takedown under the cover of no more rate cuts… I shake my head in disgust at these guys… They are dastardly dudes, doing dastardly things… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought some more, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,184… This buying because of the idea of no more rate cuts, has got to come to an end, soon… In my opinion, because the data this week from the U.S. is going to be awful, and will point to more rate cuts again…  Gold &Silver are getting sold short again this morning, as long as the dollar is rallying on the no rate cuts idea, the short sellers will take that as a carte blanche to sell short some more, and they are doing just that!  Gold is down $52 and Silver is down $1.75 to start our day today…  SERENITY NOW!

The price of Oil is seeing the other side of “attack” and is getting sold. Oil starts today trading with a $63 handle…  The bond boys are really jumping on the no rate cuts bandwagon… You take their buying, and the buying of all the stock jockeys that are fleeing stocks like rats on a sinking ship, and you have the 10-year trading with a 4.03% yield this morning… 

Circling the wagons regarding the dollar… it too also saw some buying from the made-up BLS Jobs report…  There’s no way that the ADP reports 22,000 jobs created, and the BLS reports 130,000, that’s too big of a discrepancy, don’t you think? So, either the ADP is cutting jobs from their initial report, or the BLS is adding jobs to their initial report…  I know what flag I’m pinning my colors to!  And with that, I’ll confidently say that the dollar will return to its underlying weak trend and get sold…. soon,  Of course, I could be wrong, but I doubt it… 

And circling the wagons again on metals this from yahoo.com/ finance  : “The sudden sell-off has prompted analysts and investors to question whether a broader repricing of hard assets is unfolding.

The metals’ retreat comes amid intensifying economic stress. Over the past three weeks, 18 US companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million have filed for bankruptcy.

Notably, this is the fastest pace since the pandemic and approaches levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed said in a press release that household debt has reached a record $18.8 trillion, with mortgages, auto loans, credit card balances, and student loan balances all at historic highs.

Serious credit card delinquencies climbed to 12.7% in Q4 2025, the highest since 2011, with younger households under particular strain.

Such conditions typically emerge late in the economic cycle, often preceding policy interventions like rate cuts or liquidity injections.

Bitcoin has also remained under pressure, falling to the $65,000 range as the pioneer crypto lags both equities and traditional safe-haven assets over the past few months.

While digital assets often present as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, recent trends suggest they are not yet playing that role effectively in this cycle.”

Chuck again… Another nail in the coffin for the STPs, eh? Things look pretty awful in the U.S. right now, don’t you agree? And therefore, Gold should be ratcheting higher in my opinion…  

Silver has really been quite volatile in the recent months… This has a lot to do with Silver’s lack of liquidity… There’s just not enough physical Silver out there, and unless the authorities want to raid the ETFs, Silver will remain short…  So, you have the SPTs and their short positions that come due, well, the rules say that they need to deliver what they sold short… But, the rules people look the other way, and allow the SPTs to just roll them over and prolong the misery…  My friend, Dennis Miller, and I talked on the phone a couple of weeks ago, regarding what could knock Silver down…  Well, this liquidity has been really weighing on Silver… the demand for physical Silver is still there, but the actual Siver isn’t…  

This should mean that the price of Silver goes to the moon, but with all the short paper trades outstanding, and more to come, Silver will have to work very diligently to get back to $100…   I don’t doubt that it will, I’m just saying that along the way there will be times when you, as an owner of Silver, might feel that this is it… Time to sell…  But what do you want to sell for? Do you need it as an emergency?  This is the time when you should look to buy more…. I’m just saying…

Ed Steer tells me in his letter that the open interest in Silver isn’t keeping up…  That’s usually time to get out, but I think that the lack of Open Interest is because of Silver’s volatility; investors are scared to make a real investment in such a volatile asset…  Their fear will subside, in my humble opinion, and when it does, then Silver can finally move forward again…   

I’ve carried on much too long this morning… So, let’ go to the Big Finish…

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had some doozy reports, some lies, some cooking of the books and so on, and this week’s Data Cupboard has little in the way of real market moving data… We will see the Dec (delayed) print of Durable Goods Orders, which should show a negative for the month (factory Orders for the month were awful)  So, the dollar is on its own this week to work through the problems it has weighing on it… 

To recap… The metals saw yet another takedown on Thursday last week, but on Friday they hitched up their boots and came back strongly…  There was some news about a letter that Bloomberg got ahold of from Russia, but to Chuck it was not real….  But it played havoc with the metals on Thursday…  The Stupid CPI showed that inflation had grown 2.4%, down from 2.9% the previous month… Chuck doesn’t believe the report… Everything he buys is more expensive!  And Chuck gives us his thoughts on Silver… 

For What It’s Worth…  I see a trend here… the article’s writer didn’t see it, but then he was just trying to be kind and fair…  This is about the foreclosures in the U.S. and it can be found here: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 32% From a Year Ago

Or, here’s your snippet: “Foreclosure filings remain elevated across the country, up 32% from a year ago. This includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. There were a total of 40,534 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings—with Delaware, Nevada, and Florida topping the list.

“Foreclosure activity in January rose year over year for the 11th straight month, continuing a trend that has now carried into early 2026,” says Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data.

Foreclosure starts were up 26% from a year ago, while completed foreclosures increased 59%.

Nationwide, 1 in every 3,547 housing units had a foreclosure filing in January 2026, according to the firm’s latest report.

“Although foreclosure activity has been rising steadily, overall levels remain well below historic peaks, suggesting that most homeowners are still on stable footing even as higher housing costs and broader economic pressures create stress in certain pockets of the market,” adds Barber.

ATTOM’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: default and notice of default; notice of foreclosure; and real estate–owned or REO properties, defined as properties that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank.”

Chuck again… yeah, like I said above, I see a trend here… just like the trend I saw in 2003, when I wrote in a white paper that the housing market was heading in the wrong direction…  4 years later, Armageddon, in housing… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 2/17/2026: American Style: A$ .7062, kiwi .6035, C$ .7328, euro 1.1829, sterling 1.35569, Swiss $1.2975, European Style: rand 16.0413, krone 9.5237, SEK 8.9958, forint 319.45, zloty 3.5612, koruna 20.4695, RUB 76.82, yen 153.11, sing 1.2632, HKD 7.8154, INR 90.67, China 6.9048, peso 17.18, BRL 5.2231, BBDXY 1.184, Dollar Index 97.24, Oil $63.89, 10-year 4.03%, Silver $75.04, Platinum $2.2010.00, Palladium $1,692, Copper $5.75, and Gold… $4,942

That’s it for today… Did you miss me yesterday?  OK, something’s happening at home and we had to come back early… We came back on Saturday, so I’ll be writing as usual but from home this week, with no Pfennig on Thursday, as it’ll be an infusion day…  Someone asked the other day how I was feeling, and I replied, “I haven’t been subjected to an infusion for over a month now, so if I were feeling any better, I wouldn’t know what to do!” Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song, and my fave Chicago song: Hard Habit To Break… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Are The markets finally “onto” the BLS?
• China keeps allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, about 2 o’clock yesterday, the sun went behind a cloud and stayed there the rest of the day… which was fine with me, as I went inside and watched the men’s team curling game, which they won! The sun is due back out today… Good!  The U.S. seems to be doing better at this winter Olympics, I recall a year when they won 13 total medals!  The winter sports had to be reorganized and restructured to compete with the rest of the world after that 1998 debacle… Yes greets me this morning with their great 70’s song: Long Distance Runaround

Well, the dollar drifted through yesterday’s trading session, and ended the day wearing the same clothes it wore to start the day… The euro, however, did lose the 1.19 handle, but is still within’ Spitting distance of the 1.19 figure. The rest of the currencies traded in neutral yesterday, waiting for the Big Dog, euro, to get off the porch and chase the dollar down the street.  No worries, the dollar is still in its weak trend, yesterday was just a pause for the cause… 

The Chinese allowed the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and this morning it trades with a 6.90 handle… this is HUGE folks… The Chinese are allowing the renminbi to gain so that investors around the world see it as an alternative to the dollar… The Chinese have been doing this financial business thing much longer than anyone else, so you see what they’re up to, eh?

I told you yesterday that Gold & Silver were firmly back on the rally tracks after getting sold short on Tuesday… Well, Gold ended the day up $58 to close at $5,584, and Silver ended up $3.46 to close at $84.41… Getting close to that line in the sand again… it will be interesting to see what happens from here with Silver… 

The price of Oil fell back to the $64 handle yesterday, as observers think that the POTUS is not on board with the Israeli Prime Minister’s demand that Iran shut down their Ballistic Missiles, and for Iran that’s a hard no… Therefore, observers thought that the Israeli PM would sway our POTUS to attack Iran…  But that didn’t happen, and I don’t think it will… 

And the 10-year Treasury found some sellers yesterday and saw its yield climb to 4.17%…  No sign of buyers aka the Fed Heads or their proxy… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted lower again to the tune of 1 index point in the BBDXY… Gold & Silver are starting the day getting sold short… Gold is down $22, and Silver is down $1.24 to start our day… These could be easily turned around with physical buying, so what are you waiting for? 

Last week the newswires were filled with articles about how Gold & Silver had reached their peaks and were in for a major correction… I told you then that these writers are so wishy-washy, with their calls… Gold & Silver are forming a new base, and will take off from here, in my humble opinion, and I’ve note waivered one iota from that thought! 

The BLS had something up their sleeve yesterday… They say that job creation in January was 130,000…  At the same time, they said that Based on the February 11, 2026, BLS Employment Situation Summary, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2025 was revised downward by 585,000 (seasonally adjusted). This significant annual benchmark revision indicates that 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported, down to 181,000 for the year!

But did anyone get a pink slip? I mean, c’mon these guys are worthless with their numbers every month… Last year they revised downward the number of jobs they had said were created by nearly 900,000, and 585,000 for this year! Let’s see… So, once again the BLS reported good jobs numbers that have to be revised downward, by large amounts! I just don’t get it, why the BLS can’t get the numbers right… 

And…. You have to ask yourself this question… If job creation was so great, then why were Retail Sales flat with zero growth?  And the ADP Employment Report, which I consider to be the authority when it comes to jobs created, showed that only 22,000 jobs were created in January… So, who’re going to believe, the crooked BLS or ADP?    

For those of you new to class, ADP is the system that just about everyone in this country uses as their payroll systems… Granted they may not have all the really small companies, but that would only account for 10-20 thousand jobs, if that many!  So, ADP would know the number of jobs created by the corporations in the month from their payrolls…  I’ll say no more as the BLS is giving me a rash! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Jobs Jamboree lies and videotape yesterday, but we also saw that Consumer Confidence fell hard…  the data set hasn’t been this low since 1984, and was lower than even during the plandemic… I have something on the numbers in the FWIW section today, so keep reading, you’ll get there…  

And today’s Cupboard had the usual Initial weekly Jobless claims, and they already printed at 231,000 up significantly from last week’s 212,000… This data set is quite volatile, so don’t get all lathered up about the 231,000 jobless claims last week… when the trend becomes something we can depend on being higher each week, then we’ll have something… 

To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday, as traders attempt to figure out if they are safe taking the dollar lower, or will the PPT be there to stop them out…   A real conundrum… The jobs report from the BLS was a bunch of baloney…. I think the markets are figuring this out finally! Gold & Silver didn’t react negatively to the Jobs report and that’s what has me thinking that the markets are finally on to the BLS’s bag of tricks and lies… 

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article and knew right away that it was FWIW worthy… This is about a loss of confidence in the U.S. for many reasons, and it can be found here: The economy isn’t K-shaped. For 87 million, people, it’s desperate and for another 46 million it’s elite

Or, here’s your snippet: “The most dangerous economic divergence isn’t in wealth. It’s in confidence.

U.S. consumer confidence collapsed to 84.5—its lowest level since 2014, below even pandemic-era lows, the Conference Board recently reported. The Expectations Index fell to 65.1, well under the 80 threshold that historically signals recession. Across income levels, Americans earning under $15,000 remain the least optimistic of any group.

Some look at the U.S. economy today and see resilience: markets near highs, unemployment steady, spending holding up. Others see something darker: affordability pressure, a stagnant labor market, and a growing sense that the system is rigged.

Both interpretations can be true – because the U.S. isn’t living in a single economy right now. That is because 87 million people live in the Desperation Economy – or 200% of the Federal Poverty Level. Another  46 million people live in the Elite Economy earning $100,000 or more.

The country is living in a K-shaped economy: two diverging roads, where outcomes for one group accelerate upward while outcomes for another flatten – or quietly deteriorate. The top half is compounding: stable employment, rising asset values, and the confidence that comes from having options. The bottom half is exposed: high sensitivity to inflation, fragile cash flow, rising credit stress, and a feeling that even doing everything “right” isn’t enough.

Today, the bottom half of the K-shaped economy is entering a new era. Call it the Quiet Riot.

This is the threshold where financial strain becomes a behavioral exit—when people stop optimizing and start opting out. It is not through public unrest, but through millions of small, rational decisions that add up to something destabilizing: staying stuck instead of moving up, abandoning long-term planning, choosing short-term survival over long-term compounding.”

Chuck again… the article goes on further, so if you want the whole hog, you’ll have to click on the link above…

Market Prices 2/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7130, kiwi .6075, C$ .7375, euro 1.1888, sterling 1.3650, Swiss $1.3050, European Style: rand 15.8698, krone 8.8690, SEK 9.4663, forint 319.62, zloty 3.5456, koruna 20.4009, RUB 77.24, yen 153.20, sing 1.2608, HKD 7.8156, INR 90.59, China 6.9007, peso 17.15, BRL 5.1761, BBDXY 1,180, Dollar Index 96.79, Oil $64.51, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $83.17, Platinum $2,113.00, Palladium $1,726.00, Copper $5.99, and Gold… $5,062

That’s it for today…  Tomorrow is the birthday of my good friend, Duane aka Dewey… Happy Birthday Dewey, I hope you have a grand day! A BIG win for my beloved Mizzou Tigers at Texas A&M last night… I watched that game instead of some figure skating from the Olympics… That’s just not my cup-o-tea… I don’t like sports that require judges to determine the winner… OK, that said… I did watch the U.S. men’s team pull an iron from the fire and win their curling match… I’m hooked on curling… OK, we got a bunch of hokey data yesterday, so let’s let the markets get through it and then move on…  The Stories take us to the finish line today with their song: Brother Louie… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!  

Chuck Butler

• currencies, metals, dollar, bonds all see manipulation on Tuesday
• Who or What’s going to save the power grid?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another beautiful day down here in the south… I hear that it was 60 degrees in St. Louis yesterday… The January Thaw is in play there…  As I always remind them when they tell me it was warm back home… “But there’s no ocean, no baseball, no fresh seafood, should I go on? I didn’t think so… I’m hooked on curling at the winter Olympics… The U.S. doubles team lost the Gold yesterday, and they had a real chance to win it! UGH!  Lee Michaels greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Do You Know What I Mean? 

Well, the selling of the dollar stopped, for one day, even though it did show a 1 index point loss in the BBDXY, it was down 3 index points to start the day, so a brief rally there… The euro held onto the 1.19 handle yesterday, and the Chinese renminbi was allowed to gain another figure VS the dollar and ended yesterday with a 6.91 handle…  On  side note, did you hear that the Peoples Bank of China has been telling its downstream banks to back off of Treasury bond buying?   Well, it was only a matter of time before the PBOC laid down the law… 

The price of Oil remained trading with $64 handle yesterday…  There were reports that U.S. Oilfields have backed off their drilling… Interesting right? I mean didn’t I tell you weeks ago that the breakeven price for drillers with Oil was much higher than the price was trading at now?  Well, I read a piece of the price of Oil that said that industry observers say that the price of Oil could rally to $74 in 2026… So, keep that in mind before you go out and buy a gas guzzler! 

And the 10-year saw its yield drop to 4.14%, as the bond boys got on board with the idea that new Fed/Cabal/ Cartel chairman to be, Warsh, will cut rates…. 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar drifted lower by one index point in the BBDXY… The euro remains above the 1.19 level, and the Swiss franc is really pushing the envelope VS the dollar these days, as safe havens are en vogue… 

Gold & Silver are back on the rally tracks after being subjected to the SPTs yesterday… Gold is up $33 to start the day, and Silver is back at attempting to wipe out the losing futures in the $85-90 range, as it is up $2.91 to start the day and sits right below the range that I told you would be difficult for Silver to take out. Gold was sold short yesterday and ended up down, as did Silver, but they are right back at rallying this morning… I guess we’ll see what the Jobs report does for these two…

Copper is kicking tail and taking names later this morning, and is back above $6 to start our day… The shortage of Copper is still there, and the industrial metal needs a price adjustment for sure!  And I’ll repeat what my dad taught me about shortages… There’s no such thing as a shortage; it’s in need of a price adjustment…  Man, he was a smart man… I guess that’s where I get my penchant for looking for answers to things… Thanks Dad! 

The price of Oil has bumped higher to the $65 handle this morning… Apparently, the Israeli Prime Minister is scheduled to meet with the POTUS today… And that has the Oil traders on edge… 

And the 10-year saw buying yesterday that was quite strong… Which leads me to believe that the Fed Heads were in or having some other entity do their dirty deeds. So, the 10-year starts today with a 4.13% yield.  Forgive me if I seem jaded toward these price adjustments in the metals, dollar and Treasuries… They are all manipulated and free price discovery is non-existent… UGH! 

Well, my friend, and editor of the daily letter 5 Bullets, Dave Gonigam, reminded everyone yesterday that he first talked about the strains on the power grid from the demands for power from AI in 2022…   And I thought that I had done that too… But in case I didn’t, here’s a piece I got off the Oilprice.com site: “International Energy Agency says global electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace in 15 years, set to rise more than 3.5% annually through 2030.

While renewables, nuclear, and natural gas are expanding rapidly, grid infrastructure is becoming the key bottleneck, with over 2,500 GW of power and load projects stuck in connection queues worldwide.

Grid investment must rise about 50% above current levels to keep pace, to keep up with  grid constraints

In fact one power grid had to resort to using 20% from Coal… Without Coal, the grid would have had black outs.. So AI might end up saving us time and money, but will put so much strain on the power grid, that the savings might not be worth it…  I’m just saying..

Also on Oilprice.com they talked about how China continues to use Coal, petrol, and natural gas to fues their electric grid…  I think they have their priorities straight… But then, that’s just me thinking out loud…

OK, onto other things… OK, in a case of “Who are you going to believe?” The talking heads from the Gov’t tell us that the tariffs aren’t hurting the U.S. consumer…  and then a different report tells us that the tariffs added $1,000 to the average consumer last year…. YIKES!  I’ll tell you this and you probably won’t believe it, but through the years, the Gov’t talking heads have lied to you about just about everything.. And this is no different… 

Today is the Jobs Jamboree… And the revision of their Birth/Death model that adds jobs out of thin air each month… Zerohedge.com thinks that a revision of 1 Million jobs will be on the table…  That would be disastrous for the dollar, but then that’s just me…  See? Even the jobs data is manipulated… And then revised much later so that the markets can’t really react to the revision…  But this time it could be a different reaction… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the delayed print of Dec. Retail Sales…  And it wasn’t good…   U.S. retail sales for December came in flat at 0.0%, and consumer delinquency rates climbed to 4.8%—the highest level in nearly a decade. This consumer delinquency rate is a new feature of the Retail Sales report and is quite telling don’t you think?  This soft data was probably most responsible for the selling that took place in Gold & Silver yesterday…  

I really think that the markets need to get together and make a call…  The bond boys bought bonds with the thought that interest rates will be going lower, while Gold & Silver got sold because the markets think that the rate cuts will be on hold because of the soft data… UGH! 

Today we’ll see the Jobs Jamboree for January…  Right now, the forecasts are for 55,000 jobs created in January.  I can’t see the BLS allowing a report of 55,000 jobs created in January to be printed without their messaging and cooking the books… 

To recap… The selling of the dollar stopped for a day, and there was some profit taking in Gold & Silver played a part in their performance on Tuesday. Soft data (Retail Sales) played a part in the weakness in the metals too. Chuck talks about the power grid this morning… it’s really on his mind these days!  And all markets are manipulated and the examples of each were illustrated yesterday…. 

For What It’s Worth: Well, the well was dry this morning, so I turned to Ed Steer’s letter and in it he had highlighted a report from Zerohedge.com that goes into those delinquencies I talked about above and it can be found here:  US Consumer Debt Delinquencies Soar To Highest Since 2017 While Office Delinquencies Hit Record High | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “It will come as a surprise to exactly nobody that the Fed’s latest quarterly Household Debt and Credit report (for Q4 2025) reported total household debt balances increased by $191 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025 Q3, to a new all-time high. Balances now stand at $18.8 trillion and have increased by $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew by $98 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025 and totaled $13.17 trillion at the end of December.

Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, the 15th consecutive quarterly increase. There is now $433 billion in outstanding HELOC balances, $116 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1. In total, non-housing balances increased by $81 billion, a 1.6% increase from 2025Q3.

Credit card balances rose by $44 billion during the fourth quarter and now total $1.28 trillion outstanding, up 5.5% since last year.

Student loan balances increased by $11 billion and now stand at $1.66 trillion.

Auto loan balances edged up by $12 billion to $1.66 trillion.

Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, rose by $14 billion and now total $564 billion.

New debt originations were also solid in the quarter:

The volume of mortgage originations, which includes both refinance and purchase originations, increased with $524 billion newly originated in 2025 Q4, an uptick from the $512 billion seen in the previous quarter. It was the highest since 2022 when rates were far lower.

There were $181 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the fourth quarter, a small dip from the $184 billion observed in 2025 Q3.

Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $95 billion (1.6%) uptick in the fourth quarter.

Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $25 billion (2.5%), continuing an expansion in HELOC limits that began in 2022.”

Chuck again… It sounds like all hell is about to break loose… This is not good for the U.S. consumer’s financial situation… I’m just saying….   Got Gold?

Market Prices 2/11/2026: American Style: A$ .7112, kiwi .6062, C$ .7383, euro 1.1996, sterling 1.3689, Swiss $1.3063, European Style: rand 15.887, krone 9.4642, SEK 8.8669, forint 318.93, zloty 35899, koruna 20.3047, RUB 77.27, yen 153.56, sing 1.2624, HKD 7.8168, INR 90.70, China 6.9104, peso 17.20, BRL 5.1791, BBDXY 1,180, Dollar Index 96.69, Oil $65.39, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $83.86, Platinum $2,181.00, Palladium $1.725.00, Copper $6.06, and Gold… $5,059

That’s it for today… One week to go before I go home for an infusion and to see my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace perform in the musical Mama Mia, as the lead… I’ll return, on my own, on Saturday in time for the first Spring Training game 2/21…  I’ll be at the game by myself, but no worries I’ve done that before! And then a couple of days later my buddies from home come down to spend a week with me and go to games… That’s when I’ll be on my traditional spring vacation… So, it’s coming soon! I’m really not into figure skating, but that kid from the U.S. Malinin, is better than anyone else so just go ahead and give him the Gold now…. The Blues Magoos take us to the finish line today with their song: (We Ain’t Got) Nothing Yet… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler