Author: admin

• the dollar continues to get bought… And Chuck is at wit’s end!
• Pricing food and energy….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I didn’t do much yesterday… Did the pumps on my legs, which take 1.5 hours to complete, ate lunch, read some of my Judy Shelton book, fell asleep, and the day was over! I hope to accomplish a bit more today! No games on TV last night, unless you’re into the NBA, of which I have only a passing interest… No complaining about the tardiness of the letter today, as I was up at zero dark thirty this morning with nerve pain in my foot and bleeding in my mouth…. What a joyous way to start a day!  Mindi Abair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Happy Christmas…. 

The dollar continued to get bought yesterday… It’s up 3 index points this week in the BBDXY, and for a brief time yesterday, the euro fell below 1.05, only to recover by day’s end… The markets still believe that the Fed Heads will cut rates next week, as I said yesterday, so do I….  So, if the dollar is going to be debased again, why then are people buying the dollar?  The real safe haven is Gold, folks, not the dollar…. I’m just saying…

The price of Gold continued its recovery yesterday and gained $21 more dollars… That’s a total of $83 of gain in 3 days of trading this week! And when I checked it last night, it was up again… Silver lost 7-cents yesterday…. The short paper traders didn’t like it that Silver had crossed $32 yesterday, and so they took it back below that figure. 

The price of Oil bumped higher again and ended the day trading with a $70 handle… Syria, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, and so on, are powder kegs waiting for a light… And if any of them do light up, the price of Oil should react favorably… Disruption of Oil deliveries would be the thing that’s on Oil traders’ minds…. 

And the 10-year Treasury is back to 4.27%, as it closed yesterday afternoon… So, the scenario I laid out for you has come to fruition… I truly expect to see the yield go higher, even if the Fed Heads cut rates next week! 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying continued overnight, with the BBDXY gaining another index point to start today at 1,284…. I’ve said my piece on dollar buying, so I won’t bore you with more of that now…. Gold & Silver are seeing some profit taking, it appears this morning in the early trading, with Gold down $9 and Silver down 14-cents… Both of those can be turned around easily, if they see enough physical buying!  The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle overnight, while the 10-year Treasury added another basis point to its yield to start today at 4.28%…

Well, don’t look know, ok, go head, I can’t stop you! But Japanese yen is back to getting sold, and has lost some ground this week, after a report from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that they saw no costs to waiting to hike rates… Well, that statement was akin to throwing yen under the bus, and last week’s euphoria that the BOJ was about to hike rates, was thrown out the window….  Isn’t that just like the BOJ to disappoint the markets, and economists? They have done that repeatedly for the last 20 years… So, why change now?  I shake my head at how disappointing the BOJ has benn, is, and will be in the future!  

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this that was on YAHOO.com… “Half (50%) of people have recently been somewhere that did not accept cash or discouraged its use, a survey has found.”  

Chuck again… I’m glad it wasn’t me that visited one of these places that didn’t use cash… I would have argued with them that they have to accept my cash, or I won’t buy their goods…  

Bloomberg.com had this item this morning…. “The central bank accelerated the pace of interest-rate hikes to 100 basis points from 50 basis points on Wednesday, in an expected and unanimous decision that took the benchmark Selic rate to 12.25%.”

Chuck again… Whoa there Partner! I was unaware that the Brazilian Central Bank was meeting this week! And to hear they hiked rates 100 Basis Points, is shock and awe, folks!  Well, the Brazilian real immediately responded to this news gaining ground it had recently lost…. 

The Bank of Canada did indeed cut rates yesterday, as I thought they would, but the size of their rate cut was a surprise as it was 50 Basis Points (1/2%) and not 25 Basis Points….  You know, when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel cut rates 50 Basis Points in September, I took it as a “We’re in trouble rate cut”, and the same should be said for Candada, although most pundits took it as a “let’s get the economy going” rate cut yesterday, so, as usual, I’m out on the limb all by myself…. 

I found this on MarketWatch.com : “After barely rising in the first eight months of the year, grocery prices have shot up over the past three months. Blame beef.

Beef prices have risen rapidly since the summer due to a confluence of factors: Drought, high interest rates and high prices of grain to feed cattle.

Drought has reduced herd sizes in some cases and ranchers have also culled their cattle because of high feed prices. The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since the 1950s.

Grocery shoppers are still willing to paying the price, it seems. Demand hasn’t fallen much at all.

It’s costing them, though.

Even a pound of regular ground beef is expensive: The price surged to a record $5.67 in September, compared to $3.80 shortly before the pandemic in 2020.”

Chuck again…  And the knuckleheads want to remove food and energy from the CPI calculation?   Sure they do, why not? The Calculation is already beset with hedonic adjustments, might as well remove food and energy! 

And before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to tell you about something that my sponsor, Battle Bank, is working on, so here’s Frank Trotter: “Battle Financial, Inc. has re-opened the Convertible Note offering for accredited investors.  Please visit battlebank.com/invest to learn more and obtain the offering documents if you qualify and are interested.”

Chuck again… I’m sure you’re interested! I sure am! He also offered me his wish that next Thursday is an A+ day trip for me…. Frank has always been a big supporter of Chuck, and for that I thank him! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Nov. PPI, (wholesale inflation) which is expected to grow .2%… Last month’s report showed PPI had grown faster than expected, so maybe that’s what’s up PPI’s sleeve today too! 

To recap… The dollar continues to get bought, and is up 3 index points in the BBDXY this week…. Even with the STUPID CPI printing stronger than expected yesterday, Chuck still believes the Fed Heads will cut rates next week… As far as Chuck in concerned, the rate cut is baked into the cake! And still the knucklehead dollar bugs are still buying dollars…. Really? 

For What It’s Worth…. I mentioned Ray Dalio yesterday in the Pfennig, and then I saw this and thought, what a great way to follow up! This is Ray Dalio talking about Gold & Bitcoin and it can be found here: Bitcoin remains a ‘speculative vehicle’ and ‘won’t work’ as a reserve: ‘I prefer gold’ – Ray Dalio | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Even with Bitcoin trading above $100,000 and a crypto-friendly U.S. administration taking office in the new year, legendary investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio still chooses gold.

“I have a small percentage of my portfolio in crypto,” Dalio said in a recent interview with Investopedia editor-in-chief Caleb Silver. “I prefer gold.”

Dalio added that his exposure to both cryptocurrencies and precious metals is driven by the necessity of holding alternative forms of money.

Bitcoin and gold have both enjoyed banner years, with King Crypto gaining 130% in 2024, while gold is up nearly 32% year-to-date.

Despite Bitcoin outpacing gold by 400%, Dalio said he chooses gold as the premiere alternative currency because he believes crypto still faces unique challenges.

“The reason I’m concerned about crypto is, first of all, privacy,” Dalio said. “The government knows exactly what you’ve got, where it is, and it’s also an effective way of taxing it.”

Dalio said that while Bitcoin has “merit to it,” the number-one crypto has yet to fully “prove itself.” He’s also unconvinced that Bitcoin is a tried-and-true hedge against inflation.

“The reliability of crypto in terms of, let’s say, saying, ‘Does it correlate with inflation? Does it correlate with those things?’ No, it doesn’t really, not well,” he said. “It’s still largely a speculative vehicle.”

He added that unlike gold, Bitcoin probably won’t become a major reserve currency anytime soon.

“It’s not likely to be a reserve for a currency, it won’t work,” Dalio said. “Gold is still the third-largest reserve currency: the U.S. dollar, the euro, gold, and then Japanese yen. So I prefer gold.”

Chuck again… I agree with Ray 100%…  I still believe in my heart of hearts that crypto is all a Ponzi Scheme…. That’s all I have to say about that!

Market Prices 12/12/2024: American Style: A$ .6398, kiwi .5795, C$ .7060, euro 1.0502, sterling 1.2734, Swiss 1.1267, European Style: rand 17.6682, krone 11.0967, SEK 10.9526, forint 388.79, zloty 4.0732, koruna 23.8623, RUB 103.52, yen 152.16, sing 1.3443, HKD 7.7758, INR 84.86, China 7.2689, peso 20.14, BRL 5.9846, BBDXY 1,284.23, Dollar Index 106.63, Oil $70.50, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $30.80, Platinum $936.00, Palladium $980.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold… $2,707.31

That’s it for today and this week… There’s not much to see in the Data Calendar tomorrow, so I won’t be missing anything! The Army / Navy football game is this Saturday… A lot of tradition there….  The house is beginning to look a lot like Christmas, the Christmas tree is up and decorated, and little items are appearing around the house that tells me that Christmas is on its way! I don’t think we’ll have lights on the house this year, my days of climbing ladders are over….  And if I were to put them up, I missed my window of opportunity, as far as weather goes… So…. As George Harrison sang, all things must pass…. John Tesh takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: O’ Come All Ye Faithful… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to defy the data, and rally…
• Consumer Debt explodes higher!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you. Well, I told you on Monday that I was scared to step on the scale after the previous 4 days of celebrating my son’s wedding, and when I did step on the scale, I did an “oh boy”… And not a good “oh boy”…. I was upset to see that I had gained 10 pounds. Pounds that I had already lost not once, but twice, and now I’ll have to lose it again! UGH! This losing weight at my age, and inability to exercise, is very difficult, but I’ll do it, because I had just purchased a size smaller couple of pairs of pants… I’ve gone down 6 waist sizes in the past 2 years… I’m proud of that! The Winter GM meetings in baseball are ongoing right now, I expect to hear that my beloved Cardinals have traded a BIG-NAME player….  Vince Guaraldi greets me this morning with his song: Skating…. 

The dollar drifted higher in yesterday’s trading, with the BBDXY showing a 2 index point gain to 1.282…. I whined enough yesterday about dollar buying so I won’t go further on that today… Just know that I don’t believe that the dollar buyers now, will be happy with their purchases in the near future….  The price of Gold leapt higher yesterday, and ended the day up $36 to close at $2,695, and Silver did indeed make yesterday a “turn around Tuesday” by turning around it’s early morning loss to a gain of 11=cents, to close at $32.01…  That’s a significant, level for Silver to hold and add to, it had tried and tried to get to $31 only to see the short paper traders use that level as a “line in the sand”… But now it’s in Silver’s rear-view mirror….   

I had told you yesterday that China being back at the buying physical Gold table, would help the price of Gold to continue its recovery from the selloff in November… And look there! It passed $2,700 overnight, so back in the saddle again.. Out where a friend is a friend, Where the longhorn cattle feed, On the lowly jimson weed, Gold is back in the saddle again!  

The price of Oil remained trading in the $68 handle again yesterday… That’s 3 trading days without any movement, except within the handle…. Everyone is worried about the goings on over there, including what’s going to happen next in Syria…. So, I guess Oil traders don’t want to make any statements or commitments on the price of Oil… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher again yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 4.23% yield… So, the scenario I laid out for you on Monday this week, seems to be playing out just as I described it….  How about that?

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, here’s the deal…. I overslept again this morning, so that means I got the STUPID CPI report already…. The dollar got bought again in the overseas markets last night, and the BBDXY has gained 1.5 index points to start the day today… The currencies are in retreat once again… The STUPID CPI report showed that U.S. inflation picked up for a second straight month in November on a rise in food and gasoline prices, underscoring that the final stretch of the Federal Reserve’s two-year battle against sharply rising prices has become more challenging.

Consumer prices overall increased 2.7% from a year ago, up/down from 2.6% in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a popular measure of goods and services costs. That’s the second increase following six straight declines and it leaves annual inflation moderately above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a bump to 2.7%

On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.3%, the most since April. That’s “core inflation”, which excludes food and energy, as if we don’t use them daily…. 

So, is the rate cut still on board for the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?  you bet your sweet bippie it is! The Fed Heads cut rates when inflation was still above their target rate of 2%, to start the rate cut cycle, so what’s to stop them from cutting again now?  I read a piece last night about how the write felt that the Fed Heads would cut in December and then pause in January….   For what that’s worth….  

The price of Gold continues to recover its November losses, and starts today up $6, while Silver has given back some to start the day today and is down a shiny quarter….  The dollar bugs believe that this STUPID CPI report along with some of the other data that has printed lately, will cause the Fed Heads from cutting rate next week…. And that’s why the dollar has gained again overnight… I say hogwash!   But then that’s just me… 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight and starts today trading with a $69 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield sits at 4.21% to start the day…  I read a piece by Ray Dalio this morning, and Ray Dalio is someone I respect and enjoy reading… So, Ray said to buy Gold & Bitcoin and not bonds….  He feels like I do that bonds are heading into a headwind that will blow them out of the water…. My words, not Ray’s…. 

I came across some data that I mentioned briefly the other day, and that is the credit card debt in the U.S.   Well, there’s more to the story, and her it is; American consumers now owe over $5.1 trillion in consumer debt.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, U.S. households are buried under a record level of debt. As of the end of the third quarter, total household debt stood at $17.94 trillion.

Aye, Aye, Aye! I don’t blame some people for running up the credit card debt when they need to… But is all that “need to?”   I doubt it….  In addition, the people are just following the lead of the Gov’t. And if all comes to a head, the people will look to the Gov’t for a bail out….  I’m just saying….

I read something last night that scared the bejeebers out of me…. It was Doug Casey’s International Man site, so go there if you want to read more about this gloomy message… Here’s a short description of what it’s all about: “In short, the ruling elite—parasites, more accurately—have weaponized the banking system to enforce conformity to their preferred narrative.

If you speak out against Big Pharma’s poison, a phony climate “crisis,” rigged elections, endless wars sold on lies, or whatever the media is hyping as the “current thing,” expect the financial hammer to come down on you without warning.”

Uh-Oh! I know I’m just little ol’ Chuck in the Midwest writing to his dear readers of years, and I’m flying below their radar, but this all depends on how long this goes on, and how deep it goes….   I sure hope the writer of that article is wrong…. But I’ve worried about guys in sunglasses, showing up at my door, with a cease and desist order for some time, but don’t worry, until that happens if it happens at all, I’ll keep telling you the truth about Gov’t lies, and their rigging the economic reports… You can count on that! 

The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates… The markets are all-in on a Bank of Canada rate cut…  And that’s evident in the Canadian dollar/ loon,,,  The C$ has really dropped in recent days leading up to the rate announcement today…. The European Central Bank (ECB ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB ) will meet tomorrow to announce their rate decisions… I expect all three to announce rate cuts…. So much for defeating inflation, eh? 

The good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday: “Continued restrictions on dollar settlements in world trade will increase the opportunities for using national currencies and developing new universal instruments and gold can again become the dollar’s main competitor in global trade, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said at the Verona Eurasian Economic Forum.

“Using the dollar as an instrument of sanctions is a big mistake, because trade will never stop. Both energy security and life in general depend on it. Alternatives will always be found. Gold will be the dollar’s main competitor, which mankind has been using for thousands of years for settlements,” Sechin said. He also added that the U.S. has lost its leadership in science, industry, and finance and has failed to maintain a fair world order.”

Chuck again… Now that would be something, if Gold did become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us…. And I already went through the STUPID CPI print,  and even if the number is muted by The BLS’s hedonic adjustments, the idea of inflation being sticky, and not going away will be on the markets’ minds, and that should help Gold continue its recovery…. 

Speaking of inflation… Bill Bonner had this report from a friend in Argentina yesterday: “Consumer price inflation hit 25% in the month of December 2023, as Milei took office. That’s equivalent to an annual rate of close to 1,400% (with compounding). Actual (backwards looking) inflation peaked at over 280% in the early part of this year. By October, the latest available figure, Argentina’s monthly inflation rate had dropped to 2.7%, equivalent to 38% a year (with compounding). That’s still high, but it’s a major improvement.” 

Bills letters come from: bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com    

To recap… The dollar drifted higher yesterday by 2 index points in the BBDXY, but Gold gained $36 and Silver gained 11-cents, after starting the day down 19-cents, which would make Silver’s turnaround 30-cents on the day!   The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates…. Gold could become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade, and  are the guys in sunglasses are looking for Chuck?  

For What It’s Worth…  This report just ticked me off to the nth degree!  This is a report about how Gov’t/ Federal workers rarely show up for work but still get paid…. And it can be found here: Senate Report Reveals Only 6% of Federal Workers Show Up in Person on Full-Time Basis

Or, here’s your snippet: “enator Joni Ernst’s office had been investigating the federal government’s telework protocols for the past year and a half and concluded that “The nation’s capital is a ghost town, with government buildings averaging an occupancy rate of 12%.” She revealed that a paltry 6% of the federal workforce “report in-person on a full-time basis” while almost one-third of federal workers are remote on a full-time basis, in a sharp turn-around from the pre-pandemic era in which only 3% teleworked daily. Elon Musk posted this comment: “If you exclude security guards & maintenance personnel, the number of government workers who show up in person and do 40 hours of work a week is closer to 1%! Almost no one.”

She said that President Biden set a bad example by spending little time in the White House. She reported that his administration is not transparent, and it redacted the “work locations of over 281,000 rank-and-file federal employees.” Ernst also faulted federal employee unions for hampering efforts to compel workers to report on-site for their jobs. The union for the Social Security Administration negotiated a contract that will prevent the Trump administration from requiring employees to appear in person for work.”

Chuck Again…. I’ve said my piece above about this…. And I don’t want to get my blood pressure boiling! 

Market Price 12/11/2024: American Style: A$.6365, kiwi .5789, C$ .7053, euro 1.0508, sterling 1.2759, Swiss $1.320, European Style: rand 17.7396, krone 11.1358, SEK 10.9523, forint 389.29, zloty 4.0596, koruna 23.8875, RUB 107.05, yen 152.14, sing 1.3428, HKD 7.7746, INR 84.84, China 7.2613, peso 20.17, BRL 6.0214, BBDXY 1,283.75, Dollar Index 106.53, Oil $69.48, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $31.76, Platinum $937.00, Palladium $964.00, Copper $4.26, and Gold… $2,701.37

That’s it for today… Tomorrow will be the only Tub Thumpin’ Thursday Pfennig this month, as the following Thursday I’ll be in Houston, and then I’m on vacation, so you had better get your coffee, and strudel and sit down tomorrow to read the Pfennig with vigor! HA!  Our Blues played in Vancouver last night, too late for me to watch, but they won 4-3, in overtime…. So, that’s in the books now… I really enjoyed seeing the wily old veteran, Jack Milner Monday night, and old friend Chris Gaffney, and my latte buddy, Michelle Boschert, And Dean, Don, Janet, and then there was my lunch buddy, Ellie Williams… There were more, too many to name, but I had a grand time! My beloved Mizzou Tigers get to bask in the sun from their victory Sunday VS Kansas, until Saturday this week….   Warren Hill takes us to the finish line today with his jazzy version of the song: Santa Baby…. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler              

• the dollar fights back on Monday
• 3 Central Banks will meet this week…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  I had a grand time last night at the get together that Frank Trotter, Chris Lissner, and John Dubinsky held for former Mark Twain Bank employees….Some EverBank folks were there too… I get to see these people (most of them, that is,) once a year, so each year we all age a bit more… A lot of Pfennig readers were there, and they all asked to see pictures of the wedding…. I told them that Kathy had most of the photos, and she wouldn’t share with me!   Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year!   

Well, in my opinion, yes, it is!  

Well, the dollar fought back during the U.S. trading hours yesterday. The BBDXY started the day down 3 index points, but by end of the day, the BBDXY had gained back those 3 index points to end the day at 1,280. There was no data for traders to use to judge whether they should extend the dollar or throw it out the window….  Yesterday, the Big Brokerage Firm of Morgan Stanley, told everyone that: “It was time to sell the dollar” We will have to wait-n-see if that has any bearing on dollar traders today… 

Gold, which was up $28 yesterday morning, ended the day up $26 to close at $2,659.20, and Silver went up, down, up, down but ended the day unchanged on the day, so up 93-cents at $31.90….   There was news yesterday that the COMEX will be issuing new 1 ounce Gold contracts…. They figure that it will help the young folks to get into the Gold markets easier, with less money up front.  I say hogwash!  I don’t claim to have my finger on the pulse of young people, but they are dealing with all kinds of things, and one of them isn’t getting into the Gold Market….  I hope I’m wrong on that, because it’s never too early to start amassing Gold…. But remember, Gold is a store of wealth, and I doubt that many young people have any wealth to store…. I’m just saying…. 

Here’s the note that the good folks at GATA sent me: “In a move that may flood the market with more “paper” gold, CME Group Inc., the parent company of COMEX, the leading U.S. exchange for gold and silver futures, will introduce a one-ounce gold futures contract in January.

This move comes in response to soaring demand from retail investors, spurred by gold’s record-breaking rally this year from $2,000 to $2,630a respectable 32% gain. Smaller-sized gold products have grown increasingly popular among retail investors seeking exposure to precious metals and greater diversification in their portfolios. ..”

The price of Oil remained trading in the $68 handle yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to 4.19%,,, If we see the 10-year’s yield rise back to 4.27% in the next few days, then we will know in our heart of hearts that the Fed Heads were in buying the yield curve again and that what brought the 10=-year’s yield down to 4.17% yesterday…. 

This dollar buying is giving me a rash…  I just don’t get it, and while I’m not the sharpest tool in the toolbox, I do understand what moves currencies and metals… And I don’t see the reasons for buying dollars right now, other than the media calls the Trump Shock… But as I told you yesterday, I do believe that the Trump Shock is fading, and hopefully that will bring saner minds back to the currency desks… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought, not my leaps and bounds, but bought nonetheless… The BBDXY gained about 1.5 Index points last night and starts today at 1,281.54….  Gold is up $14 in the early trading, as it continues to recover from the selling in November…. I read somewhere that Gold had lost 2.5% in November, but is still up 28% for 2024… And Silver is seeing some selling in the early trading and is down 13-cents to start the day today…. That 13-cent loss is easily turned around, so c’mon Silver, make this a Turn Around Tuesday!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $68 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose overnight to 4.22%… Seems that what I said above is playing out here…. Interesting, isn’t it?  The Bond Vigilantes are lining up their ducks in a row, so that when the time comes and they feel ready to unleash their power on the bond market, they will do just that, and each and every Treasury bond will feel their wrath…. I keep saying that if you need to buy Treasuries to buy the short end of the curve, do not expose yourself to the pain that will be inflicted on bonds by the Vigilantes….  You see…. The bond boys feel that with the debt at levels that are difficult to finance now, that going further out on the calendar, it will be nearly impossible to finance, at current yield levels, and with the Fed Heads thinking of cutting rates, the bond boys have decided to take this yield curve into their own hands, and deal with yields appropriately…. 

Only Quantitative Easing will throw down roadblocks to the bond boys/ Vigilantes…  And we’re far from that happening again, and let’s hope it never does return! 

Well, he’s not even the actual president yet, but he’s making waves with regards to talking up the tariffs he plans to implement against Canada, Mexico and China, and any of the 9 BRICS countries….  Well, there was news yesterday from China that they are cancelling $690 in exports to the U.S….  Remember when I told you that these tariffs could start a global depression?  Well, I do believe that it’s getting a start… This could all get very ugly in Global trade folks.. Got Gold?

This week we will see three Central Bank meetings that could all end up being very good for Gold… The European Central Bank (ECB ), Swiss National Bank (SNB) and The Bank of Canada, (BOC), all hold meeting this week, where the markets all think that all 3 will be cutting their interest rates… I think any Central Bank that is entertaining a rate cut right now, has to have their respective heads examined!  What do they think will happen with prices of goods when there’s a Global Depression?  But that’s them and their problem, but it’s not going to help their respective currencies any….   The tariffs aren’t going to help the dollar, I can’t see how they think debasing their currencies will help them either…. Got Gold?

There aren’t many articles for me to talk about this morning, so I’ll just head to the Big Finish… Besides, the letter is tardy this morning, as Chuck couldn’t answer the bell this morning….

The U.S. Data Cupboard still doesn’t have any real economic data for us today…  Tomorrow, tomorrow, there will be economic data for us tomorrow, it’s only a day away! 

To recap…. The dollar fought back in the U.S. session yesterday, after getting sold in the overnight markets, the dollar gained back its losses as the day went on…. Gold lost just $2 from its $28 early morning gains, and Silver ended the day up the 93-cents it was up in the early morning trading… So, in looking back, the metals didn’t really move after the early trading and the dollar was flat for its last 24 hours… There will be 3 Central Bank meetings this week that should yield rate cuts from all three. China is cancelling $690 Billion in exports to the U.S. and Chuck reminds us that all the tariffs could start a Global depression….   

For What It’s Worth…. I’ve used the folks at Gold Switzerland many times in the past, so folks should recognize the name Egon Von Greyerz, who wrote the FWIW today, and it can be found here: THE EVIL CYCLES OF WAR AND ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION

Or, here’s your snippet:”As we approach what usually should be a blissful holiday period, the treacherous path the world is now on does not bode well for 2025 and beyond.

Two global crises will dominate the world for at least several years and possibly decades.

FINANCIAL CRISIS

The crisis I have been discussing and writing about for many years is the end of the current monetary era, especially in the West. The exponential growth of debt, which we have experienced since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, is reaching an uber-exponential phase in the current century with runaway deficits and debt.

The likely course of events is unlimited money printing to counter an uncontrollable debt crisis. This leads to monetary debasement, high inflation or hyperinflation, which eventually turns into a deflationary collapse of the financial system and depression.

THERE CAN BE NO CLEARER SIGN OF THE END OF AN ECONOMIC ERA THAN WHEN THE RESERVE CURRENCY DECLINES BY 99%.  

A possible alternative would be that the financial system implodes before the money printing has taken effect, with a subsequent deflationary implosion. This would mean a period without functioning banks and money.

As this is the way every monetary system has ended in history, without fail, anyone questioning this inevitable outcome will be entirely wrong. It is only a question of when, not if.”

Chuck again… This article goes on longer with more information for the reader… So, if you have the time, please click on the link above, because if you do, you’ll know why I always ask, Got Gold?

Market Prices 12/10/2024: American Style: A$ .6393, kiwi .5818, C$ .7059, euro 1.0521, sterling 1.2752, Swiss $1.1364, European Style: rand 17.8708, krone 11.1511, SEK 10.9651, forint 390.59, zloty 4.0567, koruna 23.8585, RUB 102.37, yen 151.64, sing 1.3414, HKD 7.7790, INR 84.55, China 7.2544, peso 20.16, BRL 6.0435, BBDXY 1,281, Dollar Index 106.40, Oil $68.08, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $31.77, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $964.00, Copper 4.24, and Gold…. $2,673.68

That’s it for today… Well, I’m at home now until the 19^th of December, when I head to Houston, and MD ANDERSON MEDICAL CENTER….  it’s will only be an in and out, same day for the trip… And then I head South on the 30^th of Dec. YAHOO! Not that I don’t like seeing my friends and family all the time, but I can’t stand cold weather, and I’m spending too much time in it now! I would much rather be in weather where I can wear shorts, and polo shirts! No coats, no hats, no gloves, etc. etc.    And don’t forget Chuck’s annual Christmas vacation!  12/18 – 12/31, where I’ll write to you from S. Florida for the next 3 months! People always ask, when will you come back home, and I always respond with: When the Cardinals go North, I go North….. The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Baby, It’s Cold Outside…. I hope you have a Tom Teriffic Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar and metals drifted to end the week…
• China is buying Gold again!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  WOW! What a whirlwind weekend of events, that ended with my beloved Mizzou Tigers beating Kansas ( Our bitter rival) in basketball yesterday. We had dinner with Alex and Grace at Grace’s Parents place on Thursday night… We had the rehearsal and dinner on Friday, which we hosted and was absolutely yummy! We had 90 people at the rehearsal dinner! And then Saturday, the sun came out, the weather warmed, and Alex and Grace got married… It was a beautiful ceremony,  and then Saturday night, I spent the evening with my good friend, Bill Browne, of whom I hadn’t seen in a while. Other friends dropped by and we ended up being almost the last to leave! Jack Jezzro & Friends play their bossa nova version of the song: Santa Claus Is Coming To Town…. 

A long intro today, but I knew some of you would want to know about how the wedding went, since Alex, who’s 27 now, used to help me write the Pfennig when he was 3…. 

Ok, well, when I left you on Wednesday, the BBDXY was 1,282.90, and it ended the week at 1,280.97, So down a whopping 2 index points Thursday and Friday…. Gold was up, then down, then up and down and gyrated through the strong jobs data that printed on Friday and ended the week at $2,632.59…   Not much overall movement here, so let’s move along…. Silver traded similarly to Gold and ended the week at $30.93…. 

Friday’s jobs data was interesting…. The BLS said that jobs created in November by 227,0000… A much stronger number than was expected, and that got everyone scratching their heads, wondering where that leaves the questionable rate cut in the 3rd week of December….   One would think that if traders are questioning the Fed Heads’ thought of, rate cut, that would be good for the dollar…. But apparently not…. So, opposites still rule in the markets… 

The price of Oil slipped below $68 to end the week at $67.50… And the 10-year’s yield was 4.26% when I left you on Wednesday, and it was 4.26% to end the week… So, little to no movement in bonds, currencies, and metals while I was gone…. Now, that’s strange! 

The people on my trading desk back at EverBank World Markets used to say, “When Chuck is away, the currencies & Gold will play”…. 

In the overnight markets last night….  Well, all the non-movement in the dollar ended, as the overseas markets sold dollars last night… The BBDXY is down 3 index points this morning to start the week…. Gold is up $28 to start the day and week, while Silver is up 93-cents!  I have something on China exciting the metals markets again, so that probably is the reason for the Gold & Silver rallies this morning…  I’m also going to talk about what appears to me as the fading of the Trump Shock on the markets, so stayed tuned, same bat time, same bat channel for that! 

Someone or some entity is buying the 10-year this morning, (Can you say the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?, I knew you could!) as the yield on the 10-year as dropped to 4.17% to start our week. The price of Oil bumped higher to a $68 handle overnight… 

Well, it does seem to me that the Trump shock that took Gold & Silver out of their rally mode for weeks, and the dollar got stronger, is fading…. Gold has recovered ½ of its losses it suffered after the election and the dollar’s movement, as seen in the BBDXY has seen its high of 1,291 slip to 1,280, as of the close on Friday…. So, to me, this appears to be a fading of the Trump Shock that took the markets by storm,,, So, do you want to know what I think this fading is setting up?  That Gold & Silver get back to their rallies… And the dollar bugs realize that all the problems for the dollar that existed before the election are still there! 

Did you hear Fed/ Cabal / Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, was dissing Gold & Bitcoin the other day… I only concern myself with what he said about Gold, which was he asserted that gold doesn’t compete with the dollar as money…. Wait What?  That’s only because you allow the bullion banks to smear the price of Gold every chance they get…. It’s only because Congress turned down Judy Shelton’s Fed Head nomination years ago…. And it’s only because Nixon saw that he needed to spend more than he had Gold in Fort Knox, and he axed the Bretton Woods Agreement, closed the Gold window, and set the dollar as a fiat currency that only has the full faith of the Government behind it…. You know, that Gov’t that lies to you, takes your money not once but twice, and spends on whatchamacallits, and doodads…. And helps runs up debt that will one day be the collapse of the Great American Empire…. 

Boy, I was on a roll there, eh?  But figured I had better stop before I said something that got me in trouble….

One of the things that I haven’t talked about with the selling of Gold, is that China had stopped buying the physical metal back in May of this year, after the price of Gold was on a big rise…. But Gold received good news this past week, when it was announced by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that they were buying physical Gold once again… When I read this, I thought that it was a move in the right direction for China to announce that they were buying again…. Everything has been done so secretly by China with regards to their buying Gold in the past… They understate their Gold Holdings to the World Gold Council, who tabulated each country’s Gold Holdings… I used to say that China probably had 20,000 tons of physical Gold, which would put them to be the #1 country in the world, as far as Gold holdings are concerned, and 20,000 tons would far outweigh the supposed 8,000 tons that the U.S. says they have but have never been confirmed or audited…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the ADP Employment Report, which showed that only 144,000 jobs were created in November, which sounds more like what the number should be, not the trumped up 277,000 the BLS said were created in November!   There was also a report that printed Friday, that should scare the bejeebers out of each and everyone that is worried about the U.S. Consumer… Consumer Credit (Read Debt) soared in Rocktober to $19.8 Billion, from a September figure of $3.2 Billion…. Credit Card debt soared higher, and the savings rate of U.S. consumers fell. So, it appears to me that the rainy day money that Consumers had stashed in Mason jars, or under the mattress…  has run out, and the only thing left to Consumers is their credit cards….  Now, to me, that’s scarry!

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn’t have much for us… The STUPID CPI for last month will print… Whoopee! So, get ready for that hedonically adjusted print from the Gov’t….   

To recap…. The movement in the dollar and metals late last week was muted, watered down, and boring to anyone watching them, of which I was not, as I was doing father of the groom stuff…. Which was basically nothing, but it sounded important, so I went with it! 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, this article is about the Commerical Real Estate problem that is ongoing here in the U.S. and I found it on zerohedge.com, which is where you can find it by clicking here: The Commercial Mortgage Crisis Deepens | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.

The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures. (Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)

The financial risks associated with office mortgage losses are widely dispersed among global investors, thus diminishing the potential threat to the U.S. banking system. Office mortgages are held by a vast array of investors, including CMBS and CRE-CLO investors, insurance firms, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), private equity firms, and international financial institutions. While U.S. banks have some exposure and have already recognized significant losses, no major collapses have occurred. Smaller banks with geographically and/or commercially concentrated mortgage portfolios remain at heightened risk, and escalating stress could precipitate systemic consequences.

The commercial real estate market’s troubles are not a temporary phenomenon, but a structural crisis rooted in monetary policy-induced overbuilding, regulatory barriers, and a permanent shift in work patterns vastly accelerated by pandemic lockdowns. Vulture investors have emerged, but sparingly. The sector faces profound challenges which will unfold both against and in response to the forward trajectory of monetary policy, the consequent shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and broad macroeconomic developments. Hopefully the stage is not being set for the next in an increasingly annualized procession of crises.”

Chuck again… This report was taken from a report by the American Institute for Economic Research… So, it’s real and not fake news…. I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/9/2024: American Style: A$.6461, kiwi .5872, C$ .7090, euro 1.0576, sterling 1.2781, Swiss 1.1381, Europea Style: rand 17.8008, krone 11.0954, SEK 10.8970, forint 388.73, zloty 4.0243, koruna 23.7178, RUB 100.43, yen 150.81, sing 1.3388, HKD 7.7746, INR 84.73, China 7.2628, peso 20.12, BRL 6.0580, BBDXY 1,277.35, Dollar Index 105.92, Oil $68.11, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $31.90, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $993.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold $2,661.40

That’s it for today…. I tried to doze off on the plane ride home last night, but I find it impossible to sleep on planes…. UGH!  I’m scared to step on the scale this morning, I ate and drank a lot this past weekend!  It was great to see most of my friends and all the happy smiling faces on people at the wedding and reception!  That was exciting watching Mizzou beat Kansas yesterday! Now if they can carry that momentum further into the season!  Our Billikens won too yesterday, so it was a good day!  We were greeted home with rain and chilly weather…. I hadn’t taken a coat with me to Little Rock, only to find that it was cold there too!  But I has my hat, and that helps keep me warm…. I know that sounds weird but it’s true….  Jack Jezzro takes us to the finish line today with his bossa nova style version of the song: I Saw Mommy Kissing Sant Claus Last Night…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Dollar buying returns but watered down…
• December is normally not a good month for the dollar…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to one and all! Yes, I will end my writings this week today…. As I’ve advertised many times, I leave for Little Rock Ark, tomorrow, to get ready for my son Alex’s wedding on Saturday… I mentioned to Alex when he and Grace announced the date, that it was Peal Harbor Day… He laughed and said, ” I bet not many people that I know, realize that!” That got me thinking…. But we don’t have the time or space for me to go into that rant this morning, so you’ll just have to imagine what I would say about that! The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: When My Heart Finds Christmas….  I hope it finds you…. 

Well, yesterday was a dud for dollar traders….  As the BBDXY started the day down 2 index points at 1,281, and then proceeded to remain at 1,281 all day, and close there too!  I came across this on Bloomberg.com and thought it was interesting…. 

“The US currency has advanced about 2% since the Nov. 5 election, but seasonality shows the odds are stacked against it from here. The greenback posted losses in eight of the last 10 Decembers, often a victim of year-end portfolio rebalancing flows and the so-called Santa Rally that emboldens traders to sell dollars for riskier assets like stocks.

The chances of outsized, sudden swings are greater this time around with the risk of US president-elect’s social media posts roiling markets, unnerving traders in a month that also has nine major central bank policy meetings and a deluge of key economic data.”

Chuck again…. Well, having days like yesterday, don’t seem to be playing along with the history of dollar trading this month… But then it’s just one day, and the selling has to start someplace!  

The price of Gold, which was up $14 to start the day, saw some short paper trading knock it down to just a gain of $4, to close the day at $2,643.20… Silver was up 42-cents to start the day, and short paper trading also knocked Silver down to a gain of 29-cents, to close at $31.07

The price of Oil rebounded from the selloff over the Thanksgiving weekend, and gained a buck to $69.98, almost a $2 gain… I can see an Oil trading desk with someone saying yesterday, “Hey! Wait a minute with this selling of Oil, we still have the problems in the Middle East, what are we thinking?”    The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.23% yesterday, so at least the bon buying stopped for a day… 

In the overnight markets last night….  The dollar got bought, but not by a huge margin…. The BBDXY is up almost 2 index points this morning at 1,282.90…  The French had a vote of no confidence, which might mean the government gets dissolved, and that news really weighed on the euro overnight…. As the single unit is on pace to drop below 1.05 today….  Gold starts today down almost $2, and Silver starts the day down 25-cents….  I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section today, be sure to drop by and read it!   

The price of Oil remained trading with a $69 handle overnight… Word on the street is that the peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon has seen fighting back and forth once again… So, that has helped the price of Oil to stop falling.  The ten-year Treasury’s yield rises again and trades this morning with a 4.26% yield…  the brief downward movement o f the 10-year’s yield seen earlier this week, was all a reaction to the news that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was buying the Treasury yield curve to keep rates in line….. 

Remember when I wrote about how Andrew Maguire had thought that the short selling of Gold & Silver was coming to an end?   Well, Ed Steer told me yesterday that there were more than 10,000 short contracts in Gold added last week!  When there are more short positions representing more ounces of Gold than are above the ground, you scratch your head and ask the question…. Why? In the last scorecard on the number of ounces that short, it would take 75 days of production to equal the short ounces, in Silver, and 45 days of production of Gold to equal the short positions….  I shake my head in disgust that the COMEX has allowed all this to happen and has nothing to deter the short paper traders…. I think instead of repealing 1913, we should work on eliminating the regulation board at the COMEX….   They don’t do anything anyway! 

I’m so jaded about regulators these days… It all started with the CFP (consumer financial protection) led by rep. Warren…. They dug a deep hole in us at EverBank World Markets, and I’ll never forget that!   But they were going after the wrong bunch… We did everything to explain exactly how the consumer would be charged, but they found fault with it…. UGH!    That was so long ago that I was still the President of World Markets…. I left in 2016, 8 years ago….. 

OK, enough of my whining!  

What the heck is going on in S. Korea? The S. Korean President first announced Marshall Law for the country yesterday, and then about an hour later he reversed that decision…. Now the Asian markets are all tied up and worried about S. Korea…. Nothing like dropping a at among the pigeons, eh? 

And Ed Steer tells me this morning that the Copper price saw a ton of short selling yesterday; after reaching $4.25, I don’t have to tell you what happened to the price of Copper after all those short Copper trades were entered….. 

I don’t have a lot else to talk about this morning, so I’ll head to the Big Finish….. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had just the Job Openings from Rocktober, and they increased from 7.7 Million to 7.9 Million….  Today’s Data Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report, which is forecast to be 163,000….  In addition, we’ll also see the color of the Rocktober Factory Orders, which will most likely remain negative…  And then finally, the Fed’s Beige Book will print….    I don’t see anything there that would make me want to buy dollars….. I’m just saying….

To recap…. The dollar began the day at 1,281 in the BBDXY Dollar Index, and it closed yesterday at 1,281… So, a real dud of a day for the dollar bugs…. Chuck talks about how many days of production it would take to fill the ounces should short in Gold & Silver, and asks the question, what should we do with the regulation board of the COMEX?  He also asks, why all these shorts?

For What It’s Worth….  Well, this article by Adam Sharp for the Daily Reckoning is good one, full of facts and information that you might find interesting, regarding Gold & Silver, and you can find it here: Silver Buying Opportunity – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “In 2023, global silver production was approximately 26,000 metric tons. During the same period, gold production was around 3,000 metric tons.

So 8.6x more silver is mined annually than gold. Yet gold trades at about 86x the price of silver today ($2,633/oz for gold and $30.60/oz for silver).

What explains this disconnect? The primary differentiator is the fact that central banks buy and hold large quantities of gold. Global central banks and governments hold approximately 36,700 tons, or roughly 17% of all gold ever mined.

It doesn’t really seem like that much – just 17%. But that percentage makes a world of difference in markets. Even single-digit moves in supply/demand can dramatically impact hard asset prices. When central banks hold nearly a fifth of global supply and are buying more, that matters greatly.

Gold remains a monetary asset today, and I believe there’s a good chance we return to some version of the gold standard in the future.

Silver, on the other hand, has lost its monetary mojo (for now).

Yet historically, both gold and silver were money. Take a look at this infographic which shows the gold/silver ratio at various points in history.

For much of history, gold was used for large purchases such as real estate, and silver for everyday expenses. Even up until 1964 in the US, silver was an important part of our coinage.

I believe that eventually, silver will also re-emerge as a personal monetary asset. Individual investors will catch on that we’re headed for a financial reset.

They will want to put their money into something analog. A hard asset that can’t be hacked.

But some people want something with more upside than gold, while still offering the safety of precious metals.

Silver fits the bill beautifully.”

Chuck again…. Well, apparently, he has some Silver for sale! Just kidding….  He fails to tell us why Silver will become the preferred metal to buy…   So, I’ll stick with my question…. Got Gold?

Market Prices 12/4/2024: American Style: A$ .6405, kiwi .5835, C$ .7110, euro 1.0500, sterling 1.2676, Swiss 1.1280, European Style: rand 18.4457, krone 11.0704, SEK 11.0036, forint 394.60, zloty 4.0843, koruna 23.9910, RUB 104.30, yen 150.99, sing 1.3468, HKD 7.7845, INR 84. 74, China 7.2691, peso 20.30, BRL 6.0678, BBDXY 1,282, Dollar Index 106.51, Oil $69.91, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $968.00 Copper $4.18, and Gold…. $2,642.96 

That’s it for today and this week…. When I return I’ll be attending a holiday get together hosted by Frank Trotter, Chris Lissner, and John Dubinsky…. I think I already told you that this is a gathering of folks from Mark Twain Bank and EverBank…  I’ve only missed one of these through the years, and I was in the hospital, so I had an excuse! Our Blues played the best hockey I’ve seen them play this year last night and won their game 4-1 over the Jets….  The first game of a 4-game road trip for the Blues, so they got the trip off right!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their basketball game VS Cal, last night, and the Billikens will play their next game Thursday night….  The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: The Christmas Waltz (my favorite Christmas song to listen to) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and rest of the week, and remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals see early selling and then nothing else on Monday
• China will retaliate… mark my words….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it snowed again yesterday, another inch, not much, but still… I was attempting to get my care detailed but had to cancel….  Alex and Grace will drive my car to Little Rock this week, Kathy and Chuck will fly…  Time sure does fly, eh? I can’t believe Alex’s wedding date is almost upon us! Beegie Adair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Winter Romance….  ( you should hear Dean Martin sing that one!)

Well, I told you yesterday that the dollar selling had ended in the overnight markets the previous night, and that the BBDXY had gained back 6 index points that it had lost late last week…. Well, that was it for the dollar buying yesterday, as the BBDXY remained at 1,281….  Gold started the day down $6, and then proceeded to give up another$5 to make it’s loss on the day $11, to close at $2,639.00. Silver lost 11-cents on the day to close at $30.58…. 

It was just a day where, traders returned and realized that this Friday is a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and that they are looking for a weak jobs creation report, which would leave the markets wondering what the hell is going on in the economy, and traders do not like unknowns….  So, they sold metals….  Strange way of thinking about things, but they are fickle Traders, right? 

On a sidebar, years ago, and I mean many years ago, I was sitting in an audience listening to this woman speak and talking about  how traders were fickle and not very nice people…. Then it was my turn to speak, and I said that I was a trader, and I thought I would be very good company at your dinner table!   The crowd roared with laughter, and I was on my way to a great speech… That was in Arizona and the conference was hosted by friend, Michael Checkan of ASI….  That was the first time I had ever spoke by myself, without having Frank on stage with me….  So, thank you Michael for that opportunity, many years ago! 

Whew! That was a long sidebar, eh?   Ok… The price of Oil dipped  below $68 to $67.98 yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield dropped more to 4.19%….  One of the things I was going to list out for you yesterday was that I read last week that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was buying the yield curve to keep rates in check….  See? I had told you that I thought it appeared that the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel was buying bonds again….  It’s tru… It’s tru… I did see a putty tat! 

Boy spell check was having a problem with that last statement, from Tweety Bird…. 

In  the overnight markets last night….The dollar buyers backed off and sold instead, with the BBDXY starting the day today, down 2 index points… 2 index points don’t make a mole hill, but they do signal that the night before it was dollar intervention that caused the 5-index points gain…. I’m just saying….  Well, Gold is off on a good foot this morning in the early trading, Gold is up $14 and Silver is up 42-cents…  Ed Steer tells me that yesterday’s losses in Gold & Silver were exacerbated by the short paper traders…. UGH!  

The price of Oil has slid to $68.00 this morning, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped again and trades this morning with a 4.18% yield…. 

I also read last week that Money Supply, even though the Gov’t tries to conceal it from the public, is soaring again…. Uh-oh!  Money Supply increases when the economy is slowing, to kick start it again… But Money Supply is inflation…. So, get ready for price increases coming your way soon… I’m just saying….

There was also an article about “how to end The Fed”….  It was long, it simply said that Congress needed to repeal the Federal Reserve Act, that was shoved down Congress’s throats in 1913 by Woodrow Wilson….   If you’re keeping score at home, Wilson was also responsible for the IRS, and the fact that state senators are now elected positions instead of appointed positions by the Gov.    When you were appointed the Gov. Could simply call you back and replace you if you didn’t represent the State and its business….   Now, we’re stuck with the pension grabbing, medical insurance grabbing, drains on the economy for years! 

But that’s it, it could take about 15 minutes, and the Fed would be unwound…. Who would be responsible for setting interest rates? The Bond markets….. Who would be responsible for monitoring employment?  Oh, let’s see, how about ADP…. With the President on th hook for low employment….    See? It would be so easy to do, and budget-wise, think of all the economists that the Fed employs, now looking for jobs in the real world? 

France seems to be having a problem that has given some life to the dollar… The French could dissolve the Gov’t. And all sorts of things that they are talking about…. It’s interesting to see the French so active with this…. 

But the euro isn’t getting any love with all the problems in France….   And with dollar strength already weighing on the euro, the single unit iis having a difficult time keeping its head above water… 

And there was this on zerohedge.com : “Elon Musk, new co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency declared this week that the new outfit will seek to audit the IRS.”   

Chuck again…. Yes!, Yes!, Yes! Do it!  Don’t just talk about doing it, get ‘er done! 

And finally…. This was reported by the good folks at GATA…. ”  U.S. President-elect Donald Trump today demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the United States dollar or face 100% tariffs.”

So… If you don’t use the dollar….  You’ll receive 100% tariffs on your exports to the U.S…..  Now, it that’s not something that needs to be looked at seriously, I don’t know what is….  because if you are going to place 100% tariffs on most countries in the world, they will simply not export to your country, causing problems in both countries, but most of all the U.S.  Can you say…. Smoot/ Hawley tariffs?  I knew you could….  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ISM (manufacturing index) for Rocktober, and it printed below the line in the sand at 50 once again, just as I said it would do…. Today’s Data Cupboard has the latest Job Openings, not a market moving piece of data… Other than that, there will be 4 different Fed Head speakers out talking today… 

To recap… The dollar buying that started the previous night, didn’t see any follow through in the U.S. session yesterday, so the 6 index points it was up yesterday morning, was it for the day… Gold was down $11 on the day, and Silver down 11-cents….   Chuck goes through the rest of the items he wanted to include yesterday but had to wait until today…. Can you say Smoot/ Hawley tariffs?   I knew you could! 

For What It’s Worth…. Well the well was dry again this morning with regards to FWIW worthy articles, but I did find this on Bloomberg.com, that talks about what I was talking about above, regarding how the countries that export to the U.S. that are in line for large tariffs, like China, will come up with work arounds, or just plain stop exporting to the U.S. and you can find the article here: China Dials Up US Trade Tension With Tit-for-Tat Metals Ban – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “China ratcheted up trade tensions with the US with a ban on several materials with high-tech and military applications, in a tit-for-tat move after President Joe Biden’s government escalated technology curbs on Beijing.

Gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials are no longer allowed to be shipped to America, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Tuesday. Beijing will also place tighter controls on sales of graphite, it added.

The targeted metals are used in everything from semiconductors to satellites and night-vision goggles. However, Chinese sales to the US had already plunged in the wake of earlier export curbs announced last year.

The move came after the White House on Monday slapped fresh curbs on the sale of high-bandwidth memory chips made by US and foreign companies to China. The Biden administration’s goal is to slow China’s development of advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence systems that may help its military.

China is the top global supplier of dozens of critical minerals, and concerns about its dominance have been growing in Washington since the country placed initial controls on exports on gallium and germanium last year. That move sent prices spiking and upended trade flows as US manufacturers sought alternative supplies, while miners raced to tap new deposits and politicians sought to replenish national strategic reserves.”

Chuck again….  yeah, it’s going to be a bumpy ride this global trade… Ronald Reagan is turning in his grave… But the U.S. people wanted a new sheriff in town, and they got one… 

Market Prices 12/2/2024: American Style: A$.6490, kiwi .5892, C$ .7124, euro 1.0524, sterling 1.2667, Swiss $1.1317, European Style: rand 18.0926, krone 11.0452, SEK 10.9901, forint 394.24, zloty 4.0841, koruna 23.9633, RUB 105.97, yen 148.95, sing 1.3438, HKD 7.7833, INR 84.69, China 7.2837, peso 20.36, BRL 6.0758, BBDXY 1,279, Dollar Index 106.17, Oil $68.00, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $31.00, Platinum $960.00, Palladium $992.00, Copper $4.24, and Gold…. $2,653.44

That’s it for today….  Man it’s Cold outside….  It won’t be that cold where I’m going on Thursday…. Thank goodness! But there will be a chill in the air…. I got my Christmas CD’s out yesterday, and will begin playing them today, starting with Beegie Adair’s album, Winter Romance…. She’s a wonderful piano player, and I could listen to this CD all day! The Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station has changed a bit, and I no longer want to listen to it a lot…. So, CD’s it is! A late-night game last night I couldn’t stay up for the end of the MNF game…. Our Billikens basketball team won last night… It was their 3^rd win in a row…. They have an exciting team, if everyone can remain healthy!  Beegie Adair takes us to the finish line as she plays her version of the song: Snowfall…..   ( I first heard this song sung by Elvis and Juliet Prowse)… In GI Blues!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Friday
• But get sold in the overnight markets last night….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to December! I made it through Brovember aka November,,,, my most disliked month! How was your Thanksgiving?  Mine was good, yummy, and had a great day…. My beloved Mizzou Tigers ended their reg. Season with a win VS rival, Arkansas, and they had to play the game on a snow field! Yes, it snowed here on Saturday, and since I had nowhere to go, and my days of clearing the driveway are over, well… It was nice… But BRRRRRR… It’s Cold! And you know me, I detest cold weather….  So, I’ll have to grin and bear it until after Christmas, when I’ll head south! Beegie Adair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Frosty The Snowman…

Speaking of Brovember…. I once participated in the growing of a mustache during the month, but since it didn’t come in as expected, I shaved it off on Dec.1!  My good friend, Walt, gave me all kinds of grief about it, so I didn’t let it stick around!    

OK, So, the overbought dollar saw some major selling of the green/ peachback the last few days of last week. First it lost 8 index points in the BBDXY on Thursday (our holiday), and on Friday it lost 6 more index points…. So, when I last left you, last Thursday morning, the dollar had been sold in the overnight markets by 5 index points, and so it lost another 3 index points as Europe finished out the holiday….    With no PPT around to dig into their bag of goodies full of Exchange Stabilization Funds, the dollar was left to its own devices (Pet Shop Boys)  and, well, this must be what the markets think of the dollar…. Wednesday’s data Cupboard had a slew of data but the one piece that I pulled out as significant was the Personal Income, which grew in Rocktober at .6%, which happened to be the largest monthly gain in a month of Sundays!  Can you was wage inflation?  Which is the scariest thing to the Fed Heads, and probably put the next rate cut on the back burner, which is one of the reasons the dollar started losing so much ground… 

Gold just drifted on Thursday, as there were no markets here, nor were there any short paper traders….  Don’t you just wish that was the case every day?   Any way, on Friday, Gold ended the week up $12 to close the week at $2,650.01, and Silver gained 41-cents to end the week at $30.69….  The news of a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon led to the price of Oil slipping to a $68 handle, and the I already told you about what the bond boys figured out last week, and the 10-year’s yield remained at 4.25%….   No bond markets senior traders on Friday, so that pretty much limited any bonds from moving significantly… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, all the dollar selling ended last night, as traders got back on their desks, and took a look at what had happened while they were gone…. The BBDXY has gained 6 index points back in the overnight markets, and the currencies are all back to looking sick again….  I just talked about the Japanese yen, as it had ended the week at 148, but after last night, the yen is back to 150….  So, the PPT has saved the dollar once more, from an awful crash at the bottom of the cliff, I shake my head in disgust that the powers that be can not leave the markets alone….  I’m just saying….

The price of Gold has given back $6 of its gains last week, in the early trading this morning… And Silver has given back 23-cents….  I was all prepared to talk about how the dollar has finally met its match this morning, but those talks had to be put on hold…. Unfortunately, that is…. 

Well, last week it was announced that the Federal Deficit for 2024, was $1.83 Trillion….  With the National Debt moving past $36 Trillion a week or so ago, the FBO announced that the interest cost on the outstanding debt was over $1 Trillion, thus moving bond servicing costs into 2^nd place ahead of Defense Spending, and right behind Social Security at $1.46 Trillion for the most expensive items in the Budget Deficit….  

Well, aren’t those 3 things enough to choke a horse?  Well, if they aren’t, they sure are enough to choke an economy….   I just don’t see how the Fed Heads can justify cutting rates when they meet this month, when they hold another 2-day meeting beginning on December 17 and culminating with a rate decision on the December 18th….  Inflation is still there, and growing again, and now we have to worry about wage inflation….  But the Fed heads will be Fed Heads, and they probably will cut rates again, and tell us lies about how they feel that inflation has been beaten…. 

The best performing currency in the last couple of days as been, Ahem, (it’s difficult for me to say this) the Japanese yen….  And no, that’s not a typo….   Traders are pointing to Japan’s latest inflation data running hot, and thinking that the Bank of Japan will have to hike rates soon….  Which would give you a scene like this as a possibility: The Fed/ Cabal  / Cartel is cutting rates, while the BOJ is hiking them…. Now that’s quite out there for me to even think about, but it IS a possibility…..

The worst performing currency, even worse than the dollar, as been the Russian ruble… I mentioned this last week, that it has crossed the 100 rubles to the dollar, figure even in the face of 21% interest rates…. I read a long piece about Russia’s economy and Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina, and how she has guided Russia out of every crisis that they’ve had for over 20 years, and I’ve put her up on a pedestal at times in the past, but to get Russia out of this one, is goine to take some magic on her part…. Oil is cheap, interest rates are already 21%, the sanctions have made Russia use workarounds, and those are running thin…  

There’s all kinds of stuff out there this morning, and this past weekend to make one’s head spin…. Stuff like a former Fed Head was convicted of insider trader….  Doug Noland had this to say, “record debt issuance, the loosest financial conditions in years, and prospects for larger deficits and trade war inflation risks under the Trump administration – would unsettle the bond market.”…   and Money Supply is ramping up again…. Uh-Oh!  And more! But I’m running late this morning, so I’ll bring them to you as we go along this week that will be shortened, by one day as Chuck heads to Little Rock, Ark, for his youngest son’s wedding…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Wednesday last week, in addition to the Personal Income data we talked about above, the Data Cupboard had the first revision of 3^rd QTR GDP, which came in at 2.8%…. Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober were less than expected at a .2% gain…. And the PCE came in as expected at + .2% for Rocktober, and 2.3% year on year….  GDP is junk to me; it is so influenced by Gov’t Spending…. Durable Goods Orders used to be pared with Capital Goods Orders, but the Gov’t chooses not to print that one any longer, which is sad because Capital Goods Orders is very important as it give us a pulse on Corporate Spending on real things…. 

The Data Cupboard today has the ISM report for Rockober, and I believe that it will remain below 50….   So, that’s not a good report card on the economy, is it?  No…. It’s not!  Too much debt… I’m telling you now, so you’ll listen to me later, Too much debt causes the economy to slow down because it takes too much to deal with the debt…..  

To recap… While the cat was gone, the mice played late last week… The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, but all that selling ended last night as traders returned to their desks, and saw what had happened…. The dollar has rallied 6 index points this morning, and we start the week with the dollar getting bought….   Chuck points out that the Japanese yen ended last week the best performing currency, cough, cough….  And Chuck get into Russia this morning, on an economic basis, that is….   

For What It’s Worth…. This came to me over the weekend from the good Folks at GATA, of whom I owe a bit debt of thanks for all their work on alterting the public about the Gold price suppression that’s going on…. Their President, Chris Powell, gave a speech at the New Orleans Conference last week, and here’s it is:Chris Powell: Gold price suppression is fading as central banks change policy | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market

Or, here’s your snippet: ” What has been hard has been to get mainstream financial news organizations and even the gold mining industry itself to pay attention to exposure of the secret. A bit ironically, it has been easier to get some central banks to pay attention.

Gold price suppression has been U.S. government policy since at least the 1970s. The policy aimed to defeat any competition for the dollar as the world reserve currency. At first the policy didn’t always work well but eventually it became sophisticated and successful. Now it is starting to fail, in part because of exposure.

Within a few years GATA discovered, on its own and with the help of some wonderful independent researchers, that gold price suppression policy is laid out in dozens of places, a surprising number of them public — government publications and archives, speeches and memoirs by central bankers and other government officials, and occasional news reports.

SLIDE 2: State Department historian

Perhaps most succinct and descriptive about the policy are the minutes of a meeting at the U.S. State Department in April 1974 between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and his assistant undersecretary of state for economic and business affairs, Thomas O. Enders:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

The meeting addressed the growing desire among western European countries to revalue their gold reserves upward, thereby increasing gold’s role in the international financial system and threatening the dollar’s supremacy.

Secretary Kissinger asks Assistant Undersecretary Enders: “Why is it against our interest to have gold in the system?”

Enders answers him: “It’s against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we still have some substantial gold holdings — about $11 billion — a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We’ve been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control. …”

Secretary Kissinger interrupts him: “But that’s a balance-of-payments problem.”

Enders replies: “Yes, but it’s a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible — no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to Special Drawing Rights, which is also equitable and could take account of some of the less-developed-country interests and which spreads the power away from Europe. And it’s more rational in. …”

Secretary Kissinger interrupts again: “‘More rational’ being defined as being more in our interests or what?”

Enders answers: “More rational in the sense of more responsive to worldwide needs — but also more in our interest. …”

Chuck again… This is long because it was his speech, and he goes on at the web site listed above….  But see? I’ve told you for years, that there were documents that proved the Gov’t’s hand in the Gold cookie jar!   And some of you didn’t believe me….  What do you say now?

Market Prices 12/2/2024: American Style: A$ .6480, kiwi .5888, C$ .7123, euro 1.0508, sterling 1.2672, Swiss $1.1279, European Style: rand 18.1829, krone 11.0982, SEK 10.9712, forint 394.97, zloty 4.0818, koruna 24.0482, RUB 106.00, yen 150.11, sing 1.3458, HKD 7.7809, INR 84.70, China 7.2729, peso 20.51, BRL 6.0389, Oil $68.87, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $30.46, Platinum $944.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $4.12, and Gold…. $2,644.29

That’s it for today…. Well, this is the BIG week for son, Alex and his beautiful bride to be, Grace. As they will tie the knot on Saturday…. I’ll be there all gussied up in a Tux…. They had better take some pictures because that’s the last time I’ll wear a tux! All I hear from Kathy and her sisters, and daughters revolves around what dress to wear? Hey! This is important stuff! I’m not making light of it! No Way!  Well, what Bowl game will my beloved Mizzou Tigers play in this year?  I hope somewhere nice and warm after their snow game last Saturday! Gerald Albright takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: O Tannenbaum…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally overnight on the dollar selling
• Where have all the senior traders gone? Stowe!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Pfennig tradition calls for this: Turkey for me Turkey for you Let’s eat the turkey In my big brown shoe

Love to eat the turkey At the table I once saw a movie With Betty Grable…  Yes, and snippet from the funny man, Adam Sandler’s Turkey Song…. Man was he young when he first sang that on SNL…. Vince Guaraldi greets me this morning with his song: Skating….

Well, after all the shenanigans from the price manipulators on Monday this week, yesterday was a watered-down version of a regular day in the markets without intervention…. The dollar found a bid early in the day, and gained 3 index points in the BBDXY yesterday, while Gold also found a bid, and gained $4 on the day to close at $2,634, and Silver gained 16-cents to close at $30.47… 

Ed Steer had his viewpoint on the “beyond egregious” routing of the metals on Monday…. Here’s Ed: “This bear raid in the precious metals and WTIC had nothing to do with ‘peace’ — and everything to do with final days of rolls/switches out of the December delivery month. The collusive commercial traders wanted to encourage as many long holders as possible to roll out of December instead of standing for delivery.”

Chuck again…  you know the media can’t write or talk about short paper trading, so they come up with “reasons” for Gold’s decline….  But people like Ed (and me!) can see these Engineered Takedowns for what they are and tell you all about them….   I’m just saying…. 

It was reported yesterday by Gold observer/ author, Jan Nieuwenhuijs that China secretly bought 60 Tonnes of Gold last month….  I bet they were happy as a lark that the price manipulators took a pound and a half of flesh from Gold on Monday….. Oh, well, timing is everything….  I used to tell a joke it goes like this: I’m a half-wit comedian, ask me what’s the hardest part of my job, and before you can say, What’s the hardest part of your job, I say, Timing! I’m sure it was no laughing matter to the Chinese on Monday…. 

On a sidebar…. China is working on getting the pricing and trading of Gold away from London and the U.S., to prevent things like Monday from happening….   I hope they succeed and soon! 

The price of Oil slipped another buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $68 handle…  I already told you that it is being reported that Israel and Hezbollah are close to a peace agreement, and that has Oil getting sold…. 

The 10-year’s yield inched higher to 4.30% yesterday…. Is the giddiness over new Treasury Sec. Beginning to fade?  

In the overnight markets last night….  Later in the letter today, I tell you about the data explosion that will take place today…. And overnight, traders got leery of all that data not signaling good times for the U.S., and so… The dollar got sold, and sold… The BBDXY has lost 8 index points to start the day today, and the euro is back to pushing the envelope, after last week when it was left for dead….  Again, I ask, is all the giddiness of the FNG, Bessent, passe now?  It certainly appears to be….  The dollar will need some PPT Loving today…..   

The dollar selling didn’t help the ruble, peso, or renminbi last night, as all three are getting the snot knocked out of them as I write…. The peso and renminbi I see getting sold because of the Tariffs that were announced, as being a done deal on Trump’s first day in office…. The ruble has been getting the snot kicked out of it for over a month now, and that’s after the Russian Central Bank hiked rates to 21% in Rocktober!   That’s the highest interest rate in the world right now, and still the ruble gets no buyers…. Hmmm…..   

Gold is up $20 to start our day today…. And Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)….  Gold is back to pushing higher, and I’m hoping that the short paper traders have all taken off for Vermont to ski this long holiday weekend…. Yes, today will be skeleton crews on the trading desks… Mostly newbies, will little to no experience and strict instructions not to take any positions…. Match all buys and sells, are they walking orders today, and the same will be true on Friday this week….  So, from here I don’t expect to see much movement the rest of the day…

The price of oil bumped higher to trade with a $69 handle overnight…. And the 10-year’s yield was dropped like a hot rock overnight… The 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.25% this morning…. As far as the giddiness being over in the bonds markets for the FNG, Bessent, that appears to not be he case here…. The Bon boys are showing a deep love for this guy that is cut from the same cloth as they are….  And that’s OK…. As long as the bond boys wake up soon…. 

In other news from last night, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut their Official Cash Rate (OCR) 30 basis points, and pointed to how inflation is almost within their target rate of 1.-3%…..  I would prefer that the RBNZ waited until inflation was well within their target….  As we’ve found out here in the U.S., inflation is sticky and just when you think you have it whipped, it rises up and bites you! 

OK… I found this story on Bloomberg.com this morning: “Coffee futures in New York climbed to the highest since 1997 on worries about crops in top growers, threatening to further raise costs for roasters and consumers.”

Price inflation continues to rise, folks….   Got Gold? 

The good folks at Gata sent me this: “A former official for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond pled guilty last week to insider trading after he was caught misappropriating confidential information to execute trades.

The defendant, Robert Brian Thompson, 43, of Mosley, worked as a bank examiner and senior manager with supervisory duties for the Federal Reserve, giving him access to confidential information about financial institutions under the Fed’s supervision, including confidential supervisory information.”

Who can you trust these days?  Certainly not the TV news people, not the print news people, not the Gov’t and their agencies like the CDC, not politicians, and the list goes on, and on, and on…..   But when the people that you entrust to control the economy and its interest rates, use their position to put them in a better position financially…. The line has been crossed….  I’m just saying…. 

So, I read this morning that the price drop in Gold has really spurred interest in physical Gold….  Taking advantage of the cheaper prices, of course, who would have thought that would be an option?  HA!  You certainly know who kept preaching to you that these were excellent buying opportunities!  I guess I could have hired a plane with a banner attached to it to fly around telling everyone that the time o buy was then!  You know when I sit on the deck overlooking the beach at my place in S. Floriday, I see those kinds of planes flaying up and down the coast…. And I don’t believe they work…. So, nix that idea Chuck….  I guess the Pfennig is the only way to get the word out and hope that the readers take note and even spread the word themselves….  One can hope….. 

I don’t know why the schedulers do this but today will be datapalooza…..  They moved the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to today, so we get to see the color of that, along with: Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober, And Personal Income and Spending for last month… The first revision of 3^rd QTR GDP will print, and bringing up the rear will be last month’s PCE…. (personal cost expenditures), which the Fed Heads use as an inflation indicator… 

And in sidebar data…. There’s this: What’s a good salary?: Axios’s Ben Berkowitz writes that “Boomers say it takes $100k a year to be financially successful, Gen Z says it takes $600k.”  So, why the widespread difference?  Timing, I believe is the key here…. The Boomers have been at their jobs for years and will work them until retirement and beyond for some, therefore they see that $100k a year is sufficed…. While The GenZ’s only see themselves working a minimum of years, and therefore they see that $600k a year will do it….   Who’s right?  Oh, really, I don’t care! 

To recap…. The markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday, when the shenanigans of Monday didn’t return in the markets… The dollar gained 3 index points, Gold gained $4 and Silver gained 16-cents yesterday… The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut their OCR 30 Basis points, pointing to inflation nearing their target rate of 1-3%….  And Chuck wants everyone to state what they are thankful for tomorrow….

For What It’s Worth…. This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and they got it from Andrew Macleod’s substack site…. I’ll give you the link so you can go there and subscribe to his letter if you wish… Otherwise, here is an article about Gold and it can be found here: https://alasdairmacleod.substack.com/

Or, here’s your snippet: “Judy Shelton is a well-known sound-money advocate and former economic adviser to President Trump. This month she set everyone buzzing with a proposal to issue a new 50-year Treasury bond redeemable in gold. If her plan is to be followed through, it would not be gold convertibility for the dollar but merely an alternative to inflation-linked TIPS bonds.

We can argue about how things for the dollar would evolve from there and the likelihood that this would be the first step to a new gold standard for the dollar, but that is a separate debate. Anyway, dollar-centric Fed and Treasury officials would dismiss it as providing too much uncertainty to government financial obligations, because they would argue that gold is unpredictably volatile and they would not want to see a revived debate about its monetary role.

But there is a far greater problem in the background, and that is the integrity of the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves. Do they actually exist, and, if so, to what extent?

And here we come back to the findings of analyst Frank Veneroso more thqan 20 years ago.

Famously, in a speech in Lima, Peru, in 2002, Veneroso wrote:

“Now we have a conservative set of gold lending numbers and we have a more aggressive set of such numbers. Our range of estimates implies that somewhere between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes of the official-sector gold position has left those vaults by way of the lending process.”

Chuck again… Well, I haven’t started reading it yet, but I did buy Judy Shelton’s latest Book that Andrew is talking about above, so I’ll be reporting on that in the future

Market Prices 11/27/2024: American Style: A$.6496, kiwi .5904, C$ .7120, euro 1.0572, sterling 1.2663, Swiss $1.1343, European Style: rand 18.1399, krone 11.0682, SEK 10.9039, forint 389.77, zloty 4.0744, koruna 23.9323, RUB 113.12, yen 151.32, sing 1.3482, HKD 7.7814, INR 84.45, China 7.2483, peso 20.73, BRL 5.8234, BBDXY 1,280, Dollar Index 106.12, Oil $69.12, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $30.48, Platinum $930.00, Palladium $980.00, Copper $4.15, and Gold…. $2,654.01

That’s it for today….  I keep track of my vitals (I have to) each day, and they have been quite good lately, ever since my blood levels got back to close to normal…. That was a space in time that I hope never returns… I’ve had quite a few of them in the past 17.5 years…. Ever since I was diagnosed with Stage 4 Cancer….    I stepped on the scale yesterday, and I am now at the lightest weight that I’ve seen in probably 30-35 years!  I’m still attempting to lose more, so stay tuned! From today to the end of the year, I will find it difficult to lose any weight….  So, January 2025 I get back on the diet horse!  Next week, Alex and Grace will be tying the knot, on Saturday Dec. 7…. Pearl Harbor Day! I can’t believe that it’s here already! I’m so proud of my 3 kids, they have all carved out careers, and are happy, and good natured….  Well, what are you thankful for?   Make sure you tell everyone tomorrow! Kenny G takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Silver Bells….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and a very Happy Thanksgiving tomorrow… And please…. Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets sold on Monday….
• What if there’s no Gold at Fort Knox?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I couldn’t believe my eye yesterday, when I turned on my laptop during the day, and saw Gold down by a large amount… Silver was right behind Gold’s drop, and this all smelled of short paper trading, along with remnants of the giddiness of the markets for the new Treasury Sec  Boney James greets me this morning with his version of the song: Auld Lange Syne…. My favorite version of that song is sung by Kelly of the Celtic Woman group…. 

Well, what can I say? There’s one more thing that added to the debacle that was Gold trading yesterday, and it was a rumor that Israel and Hezbollah have come to a peace agreement… So, it was a triple whammy on Gold & Silver yesterday, and for those of you keeping score at home, Gold lost $90 to $2,628.50 and Silver lost $1.06 to $30.35… It was the ugliest day for the metals I have ever laid my eye on….  It was like Gold & Silver pulled the lever and saw Joke, Joker, Joker! I don’t mean to make light of it, but I’ve seen these kinds of massacres of the metals before, and they always come back…. So, I’m like Alfred E. Newman, “What, me worry?”… 

The dollar got its rear end handed to it too… The BBDXY lost over 6 index points to 1,285, and at one point in the day it was down over 8 index points!  Why has the dollar’s shine, that shone so brightly late last week, been tarnished this week?  Same reason that Gold’s shine got tarnished this week, the FNG, as my former colleague, Ty Keough used to call the new guys on the desk…. Scott Bessent is thought to be a financial hawk, and therefore the markets all believe he will be the one to get the Budget Deficit to 3%, and the economic growth back to 3%… I’m from Missouri, so I’ll have to be shown, folks….  But until we see the gist of his programs, we’ll have to live with these positive thoughts from the markets regarding the FNG….

So, the metals got sold…. The dollar got sold…. What got bought?  Ahh grasshopper, come sit and hear what I have to tell you…. Bonds got bought…. The FNG is responsible for all this bond buying and the weakening of the 10-year’s yield to 4.29%….   The price of Oil slipped lower again yesterday and ended the day trading with a $69 handle. 

In the overnight markets last night…. You know, Ed Steer, always calls the engineered takedowns of the metals “egregious”, but today, he called them “beyond egregious”… And he was right!   So, today, in the early trading, Gol is flat and Silver is up 10-cents…. The dollar saw some buying in the overnight markets, and the BBDXY has gained 2 index points to start our day today….  There was more talk about how Israel and Hezbollah are nearing a conclusion of their peace talks…. And that has been a real weight on the metals, oil and the dollar…. So, we’ll have to see if this comes to fruition…  

The price of Oil stayed in the $69 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield starts the day today with a 4.29% yield…. 

Well, in a case of anything you can do, I can do better….  Late last week, after getting the wink and nod from the U.S. President (until Jan 20) to use U.S. missiles, Ukraine shot them into Russia…. Russia, doing one better fired back with an ICBM…. Supersonic missile… These ICBMs usually carry a nuclear warhead, but this one didn’t, Thank Goodness…. But what’s next?   I worry about this escalating to a global war….   

That’s just what the U.S financial situation needs right now… War Debt….  I’m just saying…. 

Not that I wanted to talk about war, but it’s out there folks… We might as well grow accustomed to hearing it talked about… 

Ok, back to what I normally talk about… Metals, currencies, economies and dolts!  The euro which had to lick its wounds from late last week when it was announced that Germany had a plan for the Trump Tariffs, and it involved devaluing the euro….    But with the dollar getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, the euro regained some dignity, which makes sense given it is the offset currency to the dollar… 

The rest of the currencies sat up in their respective sick beds yesterday….  But that’s about all they could muster…. Speaking of tariffs… The new President announced that he would introduce tariffs to: China, Mexico and Canada…. And yesterday, those three currencies were sold and sold and sold….   I get it… They will offset the tariffs to their exports by devaluing their respective currencies…. 

And that means, that goods coming into the U.S. after the tariffs, will be higher priced…. And those higher prices will keep everyone complaining about high inflation….  I’m just saying…. 

Well, I’ve told you all before that I read Tom Woods…. Tom sends out emails daily to his subscribers, and yesterday he sent me something that caught my eye…. Let’s listen in to Tom Woods : “In 1968, Paul Ehrlich released The Population Bomb, warning of global famine and other catastrophes to come, as a result of an unsustainable global population.

As usual with left-wing catastrophizing, these predictions did not come to pass.

In fact, something like the opposite has occurred, with birth rates in fact collapsing all over the world.

“By the end of this century,” writes my friend Kevin Dolan, “nearly every country on earth will have a shrinking population, and economic systems dependent on reliable growth will collapse. Thousands of unique cultures and populations will be snuffed out.”

And in case you’re sure you know how to fix it, Kevin reminds us that governments “have tried everything in the standard technocratic toolset – tax incentives, subsidized childcare, propaganda – and nothing has worked.”

Chuck again… I know, that should be my FWIW today, but I have something else for you there….  

The U.S. Data Cupboard just has the STUPID Consumer Confidence for Nov. Today…. I call this stupid because it has nothing to do with Consumer Confidence in the economy, instead it’s a heat beat check on the stock market! 

To recap… It was a God-awful day for the metals and the dollar…. Bonds were bought, and that’s it…. And then Chuck goes and gets into all kinds of stuff this morning…. Some of it, he shouldn’t be touching with someone else’s ten-foot pole! 

For What It’s Worth….  this article really troubles me….  for if there is no Gold at Fort Knox, then the U.S. is really in trouble…. For you see, the longest time people have reasoned that the U.S. just needed to update the price they carry their Gold, to help offset the debt… Not cover it but help offset it…. Any way, that’s what this article is about and can be found here: Fort Knox Holds “Nothing But Moths and Half-Eaten IOUs” – The Jerusalem Post

Or, here’s your snippet: “Years ago, a floor broker with deep ties to major bullion banks made a startling statement: Fort Knox holds “nothing but moths and half-eaten IOUs.” We all laughed back then. But as time passed, I realized he was right. Recently, something Egon von Greyerz said brought that old memory rushing back:

“In reality, a central bank only holds an IOU issued by a bullion bank. If the central bank attempts to reclaim its gold, it will never get it back, as the gold has likely been sold to buyers in China or India, who have purchased it outright with no obligation to return it.”

Bold claim right? He’s not wrong

Bottom line with regard to Ms. Shelton’s call to monetize our Gold by throwing it out on the yield curve (with which we agree) there is no way you can do it honestly if you wanted to. We’d wager no Gold is there at all. Anyway, there is much less Gold in Fort Knox than people think. Which brings us to Pozsar’s predictive analysis

Recalling Zoltan Pozsar’s Gold Warning

Putting Egon’s statement in context of something Zoltan had said in late 2022 about Gold– trading $1800 then– in our write-up entitled: Zoltan’s Gold-mageddon Deconstructed: “Banks have been using rehypothecation for decades fearlessly with approval of global governments who in turn promised them Gold would never be used as a settlement medium—i.e. have a practical use — again.”

Chuck again…. Yes, for years banks were told that Gold would never be used as a payment mechanism again, not to worry…..  But it looks like the emperor doesn’t have any clothes, eh?  

Market Prices 11/26/2024: American Style: A$ .6478, kiwi .5837, C$ .7083, euro 1.0502, sterling 1.2584, Swiss 1.1275, European Style: rand 18.1664, krone 11.1240, SEK 10.9894, forint 391.53, zloty 4.1094, koruna 24.0789, RUB 107.70, yen 153.40, sing 1.3470, HKD 7.7816, INR 84.33, China 7.2503, peso 20.57, BRL 5.8055, BBDXY 1,287, Dollar Index 106.89, Oil $69.48, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $30.45, Platinum $928.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $4.15, and Gold… $2,626.90

That’s it for today… Sorry for the lateness of the letter this morning…. I was up with a bleeding jaw a couple of hours in the middle of the night and couldn’t answer the bell this morning…. Our Blues responded favorably to their new Head Coach last night with a win VS the Rangers in NYC…. I actually couldn’t believe it when they won the game that I had watched!  One of my other favorite teams, the Chargers lost last night in MNF… UGH!  Well, are you ready for Thanksgiving?  I’m not responsible for any cooking, so I can relax…. Last year a smoked a Turkey on the Big Green Egg, but I was not asked to repeat that job this year….. I thought the smoked turkey tuned out yummy! Oh well, I carry on despite my shortcomings….  Vince Guaraldi takes us to the finish line today, with his song: Christmas Is Coming…..  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please……. Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies get sold down the river on Friday
• Gold kicks tail on Friday but gets sold overnight….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… It’s Thanksgiving Week! I used to not enjoy Thanksgiving because every year Kathy and I would argue about which parents’ house we would eat at… It was our only argument all year, and therefore I didn’t enjoy Thanksgiving…. (because she always won!)  My parents were smokers, and so, the argument would go, to how our kids shouldn’t be exposed to the smoke…..  But now, everyone comes to my house on Thanksgiving, and I enjoy that much more! Especially in 2020, when it was just Chuck, Kathy, and our kids, and grandkids…. I made each person say what they were Thankful for… When it was my turn, I simply said, “I’m thankful for the Good Lord who allowed me to be here with you all today.”  The tears were flowing….   Marion Meadows greets me this morning with her version of the song: Jingle Bells….

Well, The dollar took no prisoners on Friday, last week…. It was a siege like I hadn’t seen in a while… And do you want to know what turned the dollar bugs on so much on Friday?  Well, You’ll have to stay tuned until we get to the FWIW article today, which will explain it all….  The Readers’ Digest version of it is simply, Europe had a plan to deal with Trump’s proposed tariffs, and it involves devaluing the euro….    So, with the euro the offset currency to the dollar, and the dollar bugs hearing that news, they took the dollar to a 2-year high… The BBDXY gained over 5 index points, the Dollar Index gained over 50 basis points, and the currencies look torn and tattered once again…. 

Gold didn’t let the dollar’s rally get in the way of its own rally…. Gold gained $47 on Friday to close the day and week at $2,716.90…  Back to $2,700 and looking like it wants to move even higher again…. Silver, too, got into the rally and gained 55-cents on the day to close the week at $31.41… There was no line in the sand at $31 this time, so the buying of Silver must have been very strong, eh? Didn’t I tell you last week that once the short paper trading was completed, that the metals would be back on the rally tracks?   I know, it was difficult to imagine after all that short selling, but…. History shows us that this is the trend……  

The price of Oil bumped higher on Friday and ended the week trading with a $71 handle….  So, much for the rumor that there was a glut of Oil supply, eh?   The goings on in Ukraine, Russia, Middle East got traders all worried that they were going to escalate and that got them marking up the price of Oil….  And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield stay steady Eddie at 4.41% to end the week. 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the announcement that the hedge fund guy, Bessent, was going to be nominated to be Treasury Sec really scared up the markets last night….  Right now, the markets are of the belief that Bessent will be the one that can get the U.S. economic growth back to 3%, and a 3% Budget Deficit (Budget? What Budget?) is the question that will be answered as we go along, but for now, the markets are giddy with this nomination, and that has Gold running for safety from the short paper traders this morning, The dollar getting sold, and bonds getting bought…. All opposites of what was going on before his name appeared on the docket…. 

The BBDXY has given back the 5 index points it gained on Friday, and added another index point to the downside move this morning…. Gold has given back $36 of its $47 gain on Friday, in the early trading, and Silver’s line in the sand is evident again, as it falls below $31 again…. Silver is down 36-cents this morning…   This is redonkulous!  Just because this guy (Bessent) is a hedge fund guru, and has made a Billion dollars, doesn’t mean he knows squat about running The Treasury, or bringing the U.S. Budget deficit down to 3%, but… Right now, the markets are all-in on this guy… So, there’s that…. 

The price of Oil slipped back to the $70 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury, as I just said, bonds are getting bought, and the 10-year is no exception, as its yield falls to 4.35% this morning, to start our day and week. 

So, what happened on Friday gets thrown out the window, and the markets start over again… I was taught early in my trading careeet that “The markets are never wrong”…. I know that I’ve tried to prove them wrong on several occasions through the years but have never succeeded…. I gave up…. I didn’t want anyone to think I was insane, trying the same thing over and over again….  I have to question the markets here though…. Really…. Throwing all your eggs in the Bessent basket just doesn’t seem to be the correct move….  to me that is…. I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, but in the meantime, batten down the hatches and hold on to your hat! 

Well, we all know by now that the U.S. National Debt is over $36 Trillion… But the public debt is rising too…. Here’s David Stockman talking about just that: “Thereafter, however, soaring interest expense will ignite a veritable fiscal wildfire. On paper the public debt would power upward unabated to $150 trillion by mid-century under CBO’s latest projection. Yet even the latter is based on a Rosy Scenario budget model that assumes Congress never again adopts a single new tax cut or spending program and that the U.S. economy steams along without a recession, inflation recurrence, interest flare-up or other economic crisis during the entirety of the next quarter-century!

Of course, long before the public debt actually hits $150 trillion or 166% of GDP per CBO’s current long-term projection, the whole system would implode. Every remnant of America as we now know it would go down the tubes.”

That can be found on Ed Steer’s Saturday letter here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Chuck again….  This is in line with my thoughts that the whole financial system will collapse under the weight of all this debt, the Gov’t and public….  The FWIW article is long today, so this part of the letter will end now…

The U.S. Data Cupboard has nothing, nada, nil, zero, a big goose egg, for us today, and tomorrow it will only have the STUPID Consumer Confidence….  

To recap… The dollar soared on Friday, along with Gold & Silver…  But most of those gains were given back in the overnight markets last night and early this morning….  All because of the giddiness of the markets over the nomination of Scott Bessent,  a huge hedge fund manager for Treasury Sec.  The markets are all-in on this guy, of which Chuck things there should be calmer heads right now, in a wait-n-see if he’s as good as the markets think…

For What It’s Worth…. This article was sent to me by long-time readers, Bob, and it talks about the proposal of tariffs, and what Europe will do about them, and it can be found here: German Industrialists Very Worried About Trump’s Return – German Economists Say ‘Relax, We’ll Just Devalue the Euro’ – The Last Refuge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Germany is the largest economy in the E.U. However, due to a confluence of horrible events, most of them self-created as an outcome of ridiculous energy production decisions, the German industrial economy has been contracting since 2022.

Into this downward spiral of negative economic events within Germany, now comes the problem of President Trump eager to eliminate the Marshal Plan of one-way tariffs and start dealing with the trade inequities.  The German industrial manufacturing companies who make up the majority of the economic output are concerned, very concerned.

Within the discussion suddenly something appears that all Western financial pundits have yet to accept. Leo Barincou, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in Paris says:

[…] limited tariffs on selected products, such as cars, chemicals and agricultural products, may not be too much of a problem, Barincou says. A rising dollar, and hence a falling value of the euro, would offset some of the harm caused by the tariffs. “At a macro level, the impact would be limited,” he says. (read more)

Yep, here we go again.

We saw this play out in 2017 through 2019.  China first responded to tariffs by subsidizing their targeted industries and later devaluing their currency.  We began importing deflation because Chinese products arrived with lower, subsidized, prices, and we paid for them with higher value dollars.

The downside for the rest of the world was China pulling back from purchases of large industrial products from Europe.  This made the EU furious at Trump, and subsequently the EU central banks lowered the euro as an offset.  For Americans we started importing deflation from Asia and Europe.  Everything was arriving at a lower price and being paid using higher value dollars.

I find it a little humorous that Germany openly admits they will offset Trump tariffs, devalue their currency, and ship goods without tax impacts.  Meanwhile the gaslighting U.S. financial pundits will keep pretending this is not happening.

The names have changed, but the cause & effect outcomes remain the same.”

Chuck again… Yes, a little longer than the usual FWIW but, it was important for you to know what’s going through Europe’s mind right now regarding the proposed tariffs…. 

Market Prices 11/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6512, kiwi .5853, C$ .7163, euro 1.0487, sterling 1.2580, Swiss $1.1243, European Style: rand 18.0674, krone 11.0492, SEK 10.9790, forint 392.44, zloty 4.1257, koruna 24.1429, RUB 103.90, yen 154.50, sing 1.3463, HD 7.7808, INR 84.30, China 7.2443, peso 20.37, BRL 5.8068, BBDXY 1,285.71, Dollar Index 107.66, Oil $70.86, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $955.00, Palladium $1,004.00, Copper $4.15, and Gold…. $2,680.30

That’s it for today…. Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers won in Starkville, Miss Saturday in a convincing way, and now come home to play their rivalry game VS Arkansas this coming Saturday… They used to play this game on Black Friday, but I guess that changed…. A BIG game for Mizzou… The Border Rivalry game and bragging rights for another year…. Sunday was a nice day here, but that warmer weather won’t last long…. College Basketball has started, and the Mizzou Tigers basketball team is doing much better so far this year than last….  Next weekend will be the College Football Conference Champinonship games…. And then the final issuance of the top 12 teams to make the playoffs…. I still can’t believe that my belovoed Tigers aren’t a part of the CFP playoffs…. UGH!  Beegie Adair takes us to the finish line today with he version of the song: Winter Wonderland….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler