Author: admin

• The dollar finally sees some selling…
• The Bank of Canada cuts rates again!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another night of no baseball and I’m going through withdrawal… In about 10 days that will be the scenario until spring, so I had better get used to it fast!  My adoptive NFL team, the Chiefs (They are a Missouri team!) traded for a great wide receiver yesterday, now the team is more of a threat to other teams than they were before the trade. Good friend, Rick B. Stopped by to say hi yesterday late afternoon… I had just come inside from sitting outside and reading, when He texted me and said he was stopping by soon…  Michael Murphey greets me this morning with his song: Wildfire… 

Well…. The great move by the U.S. dollar the previous night was almost wiped out in the U.S. session yesterday, leaving the BBDXY plus 1 index point on the day… I had wondered when traders who watch things like the RSI were going to begin to act on the dollar’s overbought status….  And the short paper traders showed up at the COMEX with arms full of short Gold & Silver trades yesterday… They came back with a vengeance yesterday, and brought Gold down by $33, and Silver down by $1.15…. Gold Closed at $2,715.40, and Silver closed at $33.76… TSK, TSK, Tsk, those darn short paper traders doing the dirty deed, done dirt cheap (AC/DC) by the truck load yesterday… 

All they did was make it less expensive to back up the truck for Gold & Silver. They created an excellent buying opportunity…..

And while we’re talking about buying opportunities…  The dollar rally is giving currency buyers an excellent buying opportunity…  As my former colleague, Ty Keough used to tell his clients… “If the dollar is strong, that means you can buy more of the currency that before.”  On the EverBank World Markets Trading Desk, I sat right in the middle of all the people on the desk, so I could hear their conversations with clients… This after I had stopped taking calls…  So, I heard them all…. 

The price of Oil rallied again with the price of Oil ending the day trading with a $71 handle…  Still range bound, and subject to the whims of Oil traders who can’t seem to get their stuff together, if you ask me… And after trading briefly with a 4.25% yield yesterday, some buyers showed up and brought the 10-year Treasury’s yield down by 2 Basis Points to end the day at 4.22%…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold last night, as its overbought status came into play… The BBDXY lost 2.5 index points overnight, and starts today’s trading at 1,257…   The euro has bumped back to 1.08 and all the rest of the currencies reflect a similar bump higher VS the dollar this morning… Seems that most writers this morning are talking about how the markets are fearing a “red sweep” in the elections in less than two weeks…. And that means a weaker dollar…

Gold & Silver put yesterday’s engineered takedown by the short paper traders to bed, and started another strong run higher this morning… Gold is up $23, and Silver is up 32-cents to start the day today…  These days, it so darn easy to pick out a day when the short paper traders hold the upper hand, as the damage is done in one day, and the then the next day, Gold & Silver get right back to what they were doing before the engineered takedown… Rally… 

The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buying as the yield rallied to 4.19%… Like I said above, this bond saw 4.25% briefly yesterday, and since then it has seen its yield slide… 

The Bank of Canada did it again yesterday… They cut rates again… This time though they opted to cut rates 50 Basis Points… The Bank of Canada started their internal interest rate with a quarter percentage-point reduction in June. It cut again by 25 basis points at each meeting in July and September. The next and final rate decision for this year is on Dec. 11, when some economists already project another 50 basis-point cut.  

The BOC is hell-bent, and whiskey bound to let everyone know that they defeated inflation and it’s time now to rid the economy of high interest rates….   Yeah, as if 5% was a “high rate”….   I used to think that the BOC was a prudent Central Bank, but that thought was thrown to the curb years ago, when they cut rates to near zero… And then left them there for some time…. Sound familiar?  Yeah, it’s the same scenario for the Fed/ Cabal /Cartel… 

You may recall me telling you that the BRICS were have a summit this week, a couple of weeks ago… I found this from ; The BRICS summit is underway in Russia – Sherwood News

“The group, which often presents itself as a counterweight to the Western-dominated world order, now accounts for more than one-third of global economic output (PPP adjusted) — a figure that’s only expected to rise in the coming years. The ascendence of the BRICS has been well telegraphed, with the term originally coined by a Goldman Sachs economist way back in 2001, but the group didn’t officially meet at a summit until 2009. By the end of the decade, BRICS’ share of global GDP is expected to rise to nearly 40%.

So, what do the BRICS want? Although the group’s actual structure is informal, one of the group’s key goals is de-dollarization, or pivoting away from the US dollar as the main currency for international trade. For countries that are heavily subjected to tough Western economic sanctions, like China and Russia, this would help capital flow free of US pressure and influence. So far, practical changes have been relatively insignificant: China now has an alternative to the SWIFT payment system (though it’s lightly used) and some countries have switched their currency reserves from dollars to gold.”

Chuck again… You may recall me telling you that there was a rumor going around that the BRICs would introduce their new common currency that was backed by Gold…   It doesn’t appear to be in play at this conference, maybe next year, it will be ready for Prime Time… 

But when the BRICS do announce that, they will immediately gain attention to their currency, and take the spotlight away from the dollar, and onto their new currency…. 

I read an article by Tom Dyson yesterday of the Bonner private research group where he was telling his dear readers not to sell their metals at currency prices… He reasoned that today’s prices will be looked at like the $1,800 Gold was last year at this time… And if I could be so bold to add something to the “do not sell” advice, it is that Gold is a store of wealth, and should not be sold, but instead handed down,….   

At least that’s what they do in the East… It’s not a way that we do things here in the West, but that doesn’t mean we can’t change!      I know that I sure have changed my outlook for Gold through the years…  I’m just saying… 

Well, a hawkish sounding Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel really has the dollar pushing new current cycle highs, and ignoring its overbought status…  The IMF isn’t helping things any… In a recent report, the IMF said that the U.S. economy should be growing nicely in 2025, while they dissed the European and Asian economies, downgrading their growth figures that printed previously… 

Now, in my humble country boy opinion, I’ll give them the idea that the U.S. would outgrow Europe an Asia next year, but… I’ll argue with the IMF to the grave about how the U.S. economy would grow nicely in 2025…  All the data I’m reporting each day doesn’t paint a picture for the economy like that…. I’m just saying… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention that I saw that Fernando Valenzuela died the other day.. He was only 63! . Fernando was a cult hero and pitched for the Dodgers (And Cardinals ) He threw a screwball, which was an old timer’s pitch, but brought him to the Majors… RIP Fernando! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for us today… I’m still waiting for all the business closing, and layoffs to show up here… And if they don’t, then this data set is manipulated too!  And tomorrow, we’ll see the color of the Sept. Durable Goods Orders which I’m going to say they’ll be negative for the month…  But that’s tomorrow, so we’ll talk about it on Monday next week…

To recap… The dollar’s overnight rally was almost turned around in the U.S. Session yesterday, with the BBDXY ekeing out a 1 index point gain on the day…  The BRICS are meeting as Chuck writes today, and it appears they will disappoint us with no mention of their Gold backed Common Currency introduction… And Chuck talks about the dollar rally, and what’s causing it… 

For What It’s Worth….   I found this on kitco.com and it’s about how China drives the Gold market these days, and it can be found here: China’s influence in the gold market is only just beginning – LBMA panel | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “China has played an unprecedented role in gold’s rally to record highs this year, and while the market may have cooled in the second half of the year, investors should not underestimate the Asian giant’s impact on precious metals.

China’s influence in the gold market will only continue to grow as its economy evolves, according to a panel discussion at the London Bullion Market Association’s 2024 Precious Metals Conference.

“From a consumption perspective, the continued growth of China’s economy and its large, growing consumer group will create a solid foundation for China’s gold market,” said Dr. Zenghui, Vice President of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), during the discussion.

Zenghui also noted that gold demand is evolving from basic consumption into an important investment asset within the Chinese economy. He explained that the SGE is in the process of streamlining its membership procedures, making it easier for international companies to tap into China’s gold market.

“I believe there will be more trading strategies and a larger trading market,” Zenghui said. “This is a very exciting opportunity, and I warmly welcome global institutions to join our market.”

John Levin, Head of Metal Sales and Trading for Asia-Pacific at TD Securities, joked that when Zheng said his company is small, he is not exaggerating. He explained that it is difficult for Western investors to comprehend just how large the precious metals market is in China. He emphasized that the size of the country’s market is why it remains a major global influence.”

Chuck again…. Yes, as I wrote a couple of months ago, China has taken over as the main source of pricing for Gold from the West…  This is an interesting article, because it shows how China is a major player in Gold… 

Market Prices 10/24/2024: American Style: A$ .6654, kiwi .6029, C$ .7237, euro 1.0803, sterling 1.2979, Swiss $1.1554, European Style: rand 17.6755, krone 10.9427, SEK 10.5738, forint 373.08, zloty 4.0231, koruna 23.3589, RUB 96.93, yen 151.96, sing 1.3194, HKD 7.7704, INR 84.07, China 7.1147, peso 19.78, BRL 5.6910, BBDXY 1,257.49, Dollar Index 104.34, Oil $71.10, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $34.08, Platinum $1,085.00, Palladium $1,130.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,738.59

That’s it for today and this week… Well, I made a week all by myself… I know the women on the old trading desk would always be concerned because their thoughts were that a man can’t take care of himself…  Well, I always proved them wrong then, and would still be proving them wrong now….  My beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa Ala. To play the vaunted Alabama Crimson tide this Saturday… It’s the SEC game of the week on ABC, so this is your opportunity to get back into the playoff picture, Mizzou, don’t blow it! Go Tigers! Our Blues play tonight in Toronto… Go Blues! Steve Winwood takes us to the finish line today with his song: Roll With It…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Youself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought even in its overbought status
• Gold & Silver enter overbought status…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No baseball last night, and our Blues were on the pay version of ESPN, so I was without a team to watch! Congrats to the Dodgers & Yankees for they will be the World Series combatants starting Friday this week.  The Dodgers & Yankees along with the Mets have the top 3 payrolls in baseball… It shows to go ya that you DO Get What You Pay For! And I read that my beloved Cardinals are going to reduce their payroll next year… And they thought they saw a lot of empty seats this past year? Radio Head greets me this morning with their song: Karma Police… 

Well, the dollar is being difficult these days, and with that the dollar held its ground yesterday… Didn’t gain, didn’t lose… I had mentioned yesterday that it appeared to me that the dollar was overbought… The rot on the euro’s vine got more exposure yesterday, and it lost the 1.08 handle…  The European Central Bank (ECB ) seems to be ahead of the Fed heads with regards to cutting their interest rates, and that alone is like the ECB shooting itself in the foot…  You see, a weaker currency welcomes in other countries’ inflation, and then keeps it as its own… So, the ECB thought that they had defeated inflation, and they began their rate cuts… But lurking in that dark alley around the corner is inflation, and it come back with a vengeance! 

Gold & Silver had another good day yesterday, with Gold gaining $29, and Silver gaining $1.07. Gold closed yesterday at $2,749.40, and Silver closed yesterday at $35.92… I’m sure the short paper traders were in the market keeping a lid on the metals, but any attempt to take them lower was snuffed out with physical buying…  Ok, earlier this week I talked about how I didn’t think that FOMO in buying Gold & Silver had hit just yet… But the more I read, I have to think again about that…   Here’s Kitco.com with their thought: “Despite gold prices cresting close to year-end targets months ahead of schedule, the yellow metal is still supported by strong tailwinds and investor allocations remain relatively light, so the risks remain skewed to the upside.”  

Chuck again… So, while the investor allocations remain light, they are increasing inch by inch…  But if and when investors get FOMO there’ll be no stepping in front of the runaway bus that is Gold & Silver… I’m just saying… 

And that also brings about another problem for the runaway prices of Gold & Silver in a FOMO market, and that is if everybody is calling their dealer to buy some physical metal, pretty soon the dealer will not be able to fill the orders in a timely manner… So, what are you waiting for?  If you have been procrastinating, or you have been lack about updating your allocation of metals, now is the time, before these metals take off for much higher ground, and you’ll find it difficult to find physical metals that are for sale… 

It’s taken a while longer to get it through their thick skulls, but the price of Oil finally broke out of its range, and bumped higher to a $71 handle yesterday…  And the 10-year continues to inch higher with its yield that yesterday closed trading with a 4.22% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well one asset that’s overbought saw a ton of new buying, and two assets that are overbought are seeing selling in the early trading today… A Tale of Three Assets… Here we go… The dollar continues to get bought even with it being overbought in the RSI… The BBDXY is up 5 index points this morning, as the overnight markets have gone “all-in” on the dollar…   While Gold & Silver, that just popped into overbought status after yesterday’s monster gains, is seeing some selling in the early trading today… Gold is down $6 to start the day and Silver is down 56-cents… 

It’s all about the dollar, folks… I hope you have battened down the hatches to allow this storm to pass… It will pass, if history is any indication… Suddenly, someone with some gray matter, will have a lightbulb turn bright over his head, an he’ll announce to the world that the dollar is overbought…  Someone involved in the markets that is, not me, no one listens to me in the markets any longer…. 

The price of Oil was up to $72 and change yesterday, but this morning it’s back to the $70 handle.. Bloomberg, com is saying that traders took a view of the stockpiles in the U.S. and decided that the U.S. was “good to go”… And thus, the selling of Oil overnight… 

And look at that 10-year! The 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.24% this morning!   That means the 10-year’s yield is up by 55 basis points from September 17, on the eve of the big-fat rate cut, when the 10-year yield had bottomed out at 3.65%. Remember those German traders at Deutsche Bank that I told you were shorting the 10-year, an at the time I thought they were dealing with some brain disfunction… But lo-and-behold, it appears they were bang on with their call on the direction of 10-year’s yield! 

I think I may have pointed this out last week, but then again, maybe I didn’t… So you get to read it again, if I did…. I read a lot about how the dollar is so strong because of the higher yields in Treasuries… But if that true, the yield in the 10-year would be going down, from all the buying… Instead, the yield keeps going up, indicating that investors are selling the bond, not buying it…  

My spider sense is tingling here folks… So, here my take on all this, if you don’t want to hear it, skip ahead…. OK, is everyone here that wants to be here?  Good,,,, I think the phone call went like this: Hello? Yes, is the White House calling we need to speak to the head bond trader…Yes, we’ll wait….  Hello, this is Mr. Big Bond Trader, how can I help you? Listen, we need present a reason we’re propping up the dollar, so we’re going to fabricate this story about that the high yields in the bonds are driving the dollar higher…  Are you good with that?  Well, Mr. White House, that doesn’t make an ounce of sense, if I have to explain it to you, I will…  Higher yields are a result of interest rate hikes or selling of bonds or both… And since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel recently cut rates, it has to be selling… So, your fabrication doesn’t work for me any other bond trader…  Well, ok, we don’t get these bonds the way they trade ad price, but we’re going ahead with the fabrication, and we would appreciate it wink, wink, if you went along with the lie… Goodbye… 

I read the other day that the U.S. spent more on combating COVID as it did in combat in WWII….  YIKES… The economic growth was so strong at the end of WWII, that it didn’t take long to pay down the debts of the war…  That’s the exact opposite of what happened with the debts of the plandemic…. They were simply added to the national debt… Because there were no tax receipts to pay for the debt, no reserve to pay for the debt, and so, it just went straight to the national debt…  What happens if the U.S. were to be hit with another plandemic, or war expenses, or debt payments and they didn’t have the funds to pay for them?  They will have to print the currency to pay for them, and add the amounts to the national debt….   

And in a sign of the times, this is something or something akin to this that we’ll be having to suffer through in th next month…  In Michigan there are 500K More Voter Registrations than Voters in the state…  I have to say that I’m a patriot, and I’ve always gone to the polls on election day, but after the last escapades in 2020, and now it appears that no corrections to the escapades have been made, and has me wondering if I should even attempt to vote this year, given these problems….  Oh, don’t worry, I’ll do my civic duty… But please let’s have no election escapades this year! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Fed’s Beige Book to open up to observers this afternoon… The Beige Book is a collection of reports from the regional Fed Presidents…  The markets used to wait with bated breath for this report to print, but not so much any longer… These days, the regional Fed Presidents all are out on the speaking circuit, so if the markets want to know what’s going on in each Fed President’s region, they just need to listen to his speech… 

To Recap…  The dollar held its ground yesterday, so the thought that it had reached an overbought status, didn’t ring true yesterday… Gold & Silver were back on the rally tracks yesterday, and it appears that FOMO is beginning, but just at is nascent position right now… Chuck asks, What are you waiting for?  regarding buying new or reallocating your position in metals… Chuck plays telephone operator and has the skinny (make believe) on why the pundits keep repeating that bond yields are high, so that’s why the dollar is strong… 

For What it’s Worth…  Well, it’s time for more Pam and Russ Martens great journalism… This time they have investigated the U.S. Banking sector, and you’re not going to like what they found… You can fine the report here: Academic Paper Finds U.S. Banking System Is Less Safe Today than Before the 2010 Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Legislation Was Passed (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Academic Paper Finds U.S. Banking System Is Less Safe Today than Before the 2010 Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Legislation Was Passed”

The authors of the study are Dr. Julie Ayton; Professor Abdelhafid Benamraoui; Dr. Huyen (Trang) Ngo; and Dr. Stefan van Dellen. They define the purpose of the study as follows:

“The research paper tests two critical research hypotheses, (i) whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act reduced bank post-merger contribution to systemic risk, and (ii) its role in solving the too-big-to-fail problem induced by large bank mergers. The study results reject both hypotheses indicating that the Dodd-Frank Act was ineffective at reducing systemic risk and in particular the risk attributed to mergers among larger banks, bringing back the fundamental issue and argument of too-big-to-fail and how this can be addressed through regulatory changes or reinforcement.”

A key finding of their study is the following:

“We also find that the larger the bidder, the greater its contribution to systemic risk, but only in the post-Dodd-Frank period. In other words, the post-legislation increase in systemic risk contribution is even more important for large acquiring banks.”

Chuck again… This is a long very intense read, so if you have the time, please click the link above and read away!

Market Prices 10/23/2024: American Style: A$ .6634, kiwi .6009, C$ .7222, euro 1.0775, sterling 1.2983, Swiss $1.1530, European Style: rand 17.6825, krone 11.0184, SEK 10.5956, forint 373.10, zloty 4.0319, koruna 23.4329, RUB 96.59, yen 153.03, sing 1.3219, HKD 7.7700, INR 84.08, China 7.1296, peso 20.03, BRL 5.7217, BBDXY 1,262.59, Dollar Index 104.51, Oil $70.45, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $34.36, Platinum $1,026.00, Palladium $1,071.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold… $2,743.46

That’s it for today… It wasn’t as warm outside yesterday as the previous days, but still nice enough so that I could get outside and do some reading…  i like to read outside because of being one with nature, and the fact that if I read outside, I don’t get sleepy… If I read inside, I won’t get past 1 chapter before falling asleep… My neighbors, Paul and Lenore came over to say hi… I hadn’t seen them since before I went to Ireland… They asked me when Kathy was returning, and I honestly said, “I don’t know”…  Well, I learned yesterday that I’m going to have to contact MD Anderson in Houston and see if they’ll see me again…. I just get all the fun trips, don’t I?   NOT!  The Straubs take us to the finish line today, with their song: Autumn… This is a classic rock song….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to go higher to overbought, per Chuck!
• A $100 Trillion Time Bomb is ticking…. Who will blink first?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, a PT guy came to the house yesterday, sent by my doctors, to get me strong again… I told the PT that my youngest son was a PT, and he about turned around and left, but then I told him that my son hadn’t checked with me, so he was more than welcome to begin… I passed all the tests! I even blew the guy away with my balance! And That, was the highlight of my day! I did sit outside and read again, marking two days in a row of me getting outside… It’s the little things that I work toward these days….  Uriah Heap greets me this morning with their 70’s anthem song: July Morning… This is the song that I quote the lyrics to the first Pfennig of July… 

Well, I have to say that the dollar bugs have got me… They’ve got me for being so jaded about the dollar’s current rally… They just had to prove to me that it was real, and that, they did yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points to 1,257… Now, all I ask, is that one of these dollar bugs to explain why they should be buying the dollar, and I’ll give up dissing the dollar… But seeing that’s not going to happen (explanation and me stop dissing the dollar) I’m just wasting my time and yours…  I guess the dollar bugs believe all the political nonsense that the U.S. economy is working in all facets… If that had even an inkling of truth to it, Gold wouldn’t be hitting new all-time highs… 

Speaking of Gold… Yesterday morning Gold was continuing its rally from last week, until it wasn’t… Something stopped Gold’s run and by mid-morning, Gold was fighting to get back to flat on the day…  Then I listened to an interview with Egon Von Greyerz  of Gold Switzerland, and he talked about how what he was seeing was a lot of his clients selling Gold to pay for housing, etc.  So, as long as this brief sell off doesn’t gain legs…  Silver did continue its rally, but fell back below $34…  James Turk of Gold/ Money had this to say about Silver: “I see $50+ silver is days or weeks away, not months.” 

Chuck again…  WOW! You know when I told a magazine years ago that Silver would trade above $50, Silver was around $40, so it wasn’t that large of a spread difference for me… The thing is, everything I read about the industrial demand for Silver overtaking a large portion of the mined Silver each year, and how dealers are having to dip into their reserves to have Silver to deliver, I can’t argue with Mr. Turk on this one….

The price of Oil remained range bound in the $70 handle yesterday, while the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.19%… This bond doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to stop the rise in its yield…  I’m just saying…  Any old way, Gold closed yesterday at $2,714.90, and Silver closed at $ 33.75…   And after all the intervention and gyrations yesterday Gold was down 2-cents, and Silver was up 7-cents…  Darn short paper traders were out in force yesterday… 

Here’s what Ed Steer had to say about that from his letter this morning: “The collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were at battle stations in the precious metals in both Globex and COMEX trading on Monday — and in overseas trading, it was most obvious in gold.

But once that phony-baloney dollar index ‘rally’ began at 8:30 a.m. in New York…they really got serious…as both these precious metals continued to rally in the face of that…plus the rise in the yields of U.S. treasuries. Shortly after the 10 a.m. EDT afternoon gold fix in London was put to bed, they leaned on both silver and gold pretty hard…especially the latter.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

I know I highlighted a quote from Andrew Maguire yesterday that talked about how strong demand has put the short paper traders on the sideline… Apparently that thought is not ready for Prime Time just yet…  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Maybe there was a realization that the dollar was overbought, as there was a spot of selling overnight… The BBDXY is down 1 index point to start our Tuesday… This is NO sign that the markets have to come to the realization that the dollar is overbought… We’ll half to see more selling in the U.S. session today for that to become a reality…  Gold is back to booking gains today and is up $18 in the early trading today, and Silver is up 60-cents this morning…  Just shows to go you, that you can’t snuff out a strong rally with just one day of intervention!   

The price of Oil has bumped higher overnight, and trades this morning with a $71 handle… Still range bound, folks… And the 10-year just keeps moving higher and trades with a 4.20% yield this morning… 

Usually, or normally in times like this with rising yields in U.S. Bonds, Gold take a backseat… But not this time, because the rising yield is a sign that there are bad times ahead for the U.S.   And gold is a better option at this point… I have something that will bust your buttons in the FWIW section today, regarding this thought… Be sure to stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

Well, the good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday, and well I have something to say about it, but first here it is “TD Bank just made headlines for pleading guilty to the crime of money laundering and a variety of other charges.

Bankers there provided services to despicable people who needed a way to recycle the cash proceeds acquired by selling everything from drugs to children.”

Chuck again…  I have to ask you, is this the kind of bank you would want to handle your money, loans, etc?  If you have serious concerns about your bank account, please go to: www.battlebank.com  and sign up to be on their wait list… Battle Bank is waiting on the FDIC to approve them to open their virtual doors…  

OK… Now back to the markets, economies and dolts…  I have all three tied up with a nice bow on top here…  first: The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Wednesday will feature a warning that public debt levels are set to reach $100 trillion this year, driven by China and the US. Talk about weighing down economies….  I’ll come back to that but first we’ve got to go to number 2:  Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in a speech on Thursday, stressed how that mountain of borrowing is weighing on the world.   As if, we didn’t know that already!  She must take us idiots!  But I’ve got news for her… We’re all on to this weighing down the world thing, and that’s why 3: Gold is setting new all-time records, coming from $1800 a year ago (in Rocktober) to more than $2,700 now… 

As far as weighing down economies go… I used to talk about his all the time until I was blue in the face… That too much debt in the U.S. didn’t allow the economy to grow, and thus the reason for our avg GDP of 2% for the last ten years! And now China has joined the ranks of indebted countries up to their collective eyeballs, that includes: The U.S., Japan, China, Eurozone, and U.K.   

The question here is: Who is going to be able to play off al this debt?  The answer to that question is: none of them! And the debts are so large that they won’t be able to inflate them away, so the only thing that’s left is a default… And then the question will be: Who will blink first?  My guess…. The U.S. 

Speaking of debt…. The U.S. Government had a report for us last week, that flew under the radar of the major media outlets, so, as usual you, dear reader, can depend on me to give the news… And here it is: the US government ran a $1.83 trillion deficit in 2024 (the government’s fiscal year ends in September). It was the third-largest deficit in US history and was up 8% from the $1.69 trillion deficit last year.  Yes, the Budgeting people keep telling us that we’re at the point where the annual deficit numbers will multiply… So, I can hardly wait for next year’s deficit number to be announced… NOT!  

The euro continues to wallow in the mud that has been created by the European Central Bank (ECB ) And the outlook for the euro is not good, as most observers see the ECB cutting rates a few more times in the coming months, thus keeping the pressure on the euro… 

The Petrol Currencies have taken their collective gut punches in the last couple of weeks, and now they are licking their wounds from the double whammy of a strong dollar and weak Oil price… I’m talking about the ruble, krone, loon, peso, rand, and others… Time to batten down the hatches here and wait this out… This currency environment will not continue for months, in my opinion… So, what’s the pain in battening down the hatches for a few weeks? 

The dollar, to me, looks to be overstretched at this point…  If I had a Bloomberg Terminal like I used to have when I was on the trading desk at EverBank World Markets, I would run the RSI on the dollar and I’m sure it would show me that the dollar was overbought… RSI is the Relative Strength Index….   So, take that with as many grains of salt that you wish, but I’m seldom incorrect on these calls… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Sept. Leading Indicators and they actually printed worse than expected or last month, which was negative -.3%… In Sept they fell further in negative territory to negative -.5%…  This from the U.S. Conference Board: ““Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid.”

Chuck again… Sure doesn’t sound like an economy that’s hitting on all eight to me! 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has a Fed Head speaker on the circuit… 

To recap… The dollar continued to rally throughout the day yesterday, and Chuck challenges a dollar bull to explain why they are buying dollars right now….   Gold’s early morning gains were erased during the day yesterday, it could have ben profit taking, or short paper trading, take your pick… Silver continued its rally, but fell back below $34 on the day… TD Bank now joins the ranks of Banks with felony records…  Chuck offers up a different bank that you won’t ever see on that list… 

For What It’s Worth…. Ok, I talked a ton about the Debt this morning, and then I saw this post, and it’s my former colleague, Aaron Stevenson’s favorite Bank (NOT!), Bank of America with a warning about how Gold is more of a safe haven than Treasuries, and it can be found here: Bank of America: Gold is the ‘Last Safe Haven’ Amid Rising U.S. Debt – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: In a stark assessment of the current economic landscape, Bank of America has issued a warning that gold may be the last remaining safe haven for investors as the United States grapples with an ever-increasing national debt. This pronouncement comes as the precious metal continues to set new record highs, reflecting growing concerns about the stability of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.

Bank of America’s analysts paint a troubling picture of the U.S. fiscal situation. The national debt, which recently surpassed $35.7 trillion, is projected to reach unprecedented levels over the next three years. This trajectory has altered the traditional relationship between gold and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, making the metal increasingly attractive to investors seeking stability.

In a significant shift, Bank of America suggests that gold has become a safer investment option than U.S. Treasury bonds. This change is attributed to the mounting risks associated with what the bank describes as an “impending debt crisis.” As the U.S. continues to accumulate debt at an alarming rate, the perceived safety of government bonds is being called into question.

The bank’s analysis highlights a concerning lack of fiscal discipline in the political sphere. Neither of the current US presidential candidates appears poised to address the debt issue meaningfully. In fact, their economic plans are expected to further exacerbate the problem, potentially pushing the national debt to even greater heights.”

Chuck Again…  Well, bust my buttons! I can’t believe that a major Bank is making this statement, because all they’ve done in the past is dis Gold, called it barbaric, and other names, and tried to get their banking clients to look to other forms of investment… This is a major shift, folks… And one that should not be ignored…  ping, ping ping… What’s the sound? It’s the warning from the backing up truck! 

Market prices 10/22/2024: American Stye: A$ .6687, kiwi .6053, C$ 7230, euro 1.0827, sterling 1.2978, Swiss $1.1557, European Style: rand 17.5779, krone 10.9183, SEK 10.5360, forint 370.03, zloty 3.9942, koruna 23.3383, RUB 95.48, yen 150.91, sing 1.3155, HKD 7.7736, INR 84.07, China 7.1209, peso 19.92, BRL 5.6953, BBDXY 1,256.27, Dollar Index 103.77, Oil $71.22, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $34.45, Platinum $1,021.00, Palladium $1,078.00, Copper $4.39, and Gold… $2,734.82

That’s it for today… Darling Daughter, Dawn, called last night to see if I needed her to deliver some dinner to me… I told her that was nice to offer, and then thought to myself that: if I wanted dinner delivered, I would just go to Door Dash APP!) Besides she has to cook two dinners a lot of nights, because of her kids’ different schedules…  I booked two more doctor appts for me next week, which makes 3 of them on Tuesday!  One of them is an appt with a new doctor at SLU, for a second opinion, on the tumor in my mouth…  The results of the echocardiogram I had last week were back, and they weren’t good… The fluid around my heart hasn’t budged / got smaller. So, third appt next week is with the doc who wants to do surgery to remove the fluid… UGH! Oh well, it is what it is… The Little River Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Lonesome Loser…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• the dollar continues to get bought… strange, I know…
• So long Blue Light Specials….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a great comeback for my beloved Mizzou Tigers last Saturday! I loved it when QB Brady Cook said after the game that “there was no way we were going to lose this homecoming Game”… Well, until he returned to the game it certainly appeared to be a loss! These are the things that legends grow from… For much of the game the QB was at the hospital! When he returned to the sidelines the fans went bezerk and the rest is history… The Alan Parsons Project greets me this morning with his song: Games People Play in the Middle of the Night… 

Well, bust my buttons! What a 2-day performance by Gold & Silver last week! Gold ended the week over $2,700 and Silver ended the week over $33!  Here’s the skinny on their moves… Gold gained $18 on Thursday, and on Friday added $28. To end the week at $2,720.90… Silver never got out the starter’s blocks on Thursday, but that’s ok, because on Friday, Silver closed up $2.02, to close the week at $33.67… 

OK, so remember me saying over and over again that the thing that will send the short paper traders packing is that if everyone began buying physical Gold & Silver?    Well, the good folks at Gata sent me this note: “London metals trader Andrew Maguire, appearing on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand, says physical demand now is overwhelming derivatives trading in silver, just as it has done in gold, and he expects a similarly explosive rise in silver’s price soon.”

So, once again, Chuck’s thoughts are proven to be correct! I just hope the physical demand for the two metals continues to keep the short paper traders at bay, otherwise they will come back with a vengeance for sure! 

The dollar continued to get bought until Friday last week, when it began to see some profit taking and other sales that brought the BBDXY down nearly 3 index points to 1,251….  I’ve said just all I have to say about this dollar strength, so I won’t repeat myself again this morning… Just know, that there has to be some intervention going on to keep the dollar strong… I’m just saying…. 

The price of Oil slipped again on Friday and ended the week trading with a $69 handle….   I’m now convinced that the Gov’t is intervening in the Oil market… Gotta keep the price of gas down before the election…  

And the intervention in the 10-year’s yield works some days, and other days, well… It doesn’t… And Friday was one of those days when it didn’t work, as the 10-year’s yield ended the week trading with a 4.08%

In the overnight markets last night…  Gold & Silver are picking up where they left off, last Friday, with both metals shining brightly this morning… Gold is up $18 to extend its current rally, and Silver is up 43-centss, and has passed another number this morning trading at $34 and change….  All this in the face of a rallying dollar… The dollar got bought in the overseas markets last night, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points to 1,253….  i don’t think that we’re there yet, but when we do get there this rally with the metals will get some real legs and run even hotter… I’m talking about FOMO… Fear of Missing Out…..  When you get into a cab and the driver tells you about how he secured some physical Gold or Silver, because everyone is out of supply… That’s when you know that TOMO has taken over, and the rally is nearing its end…  We’re far from that in my opinion, so go ahead and back up the truck! 

The price of Oil bumped higher again, and trades with a $70 handle this morning.  To me, this looks like it’s range-bound, and it’s going to remain in this range until something comes along to change the range…  The 10-year’s yield is on the warpath to higher levels this morning… Maybe the Fed Heads threw their hands in the air and said, “We give up!” The 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.13%, and looking like it will go even higher… 

Well, in a sign of the times…  I had this sent to me: The last full-scale Kmart in the continental US is set to close Sunday in Bridgehampton, New York, marking the end of an era for the once-iconic retailer. Known for its “Blue Light Specials”—flash discount announcements—and celebrity partnerships, the chain struggled over the years to compete with Walmart, Target, and online retailers.

Chuck again… Man, do I remember those Blue light Specials… Well, so long K-Mart, wish you could’ve stayed longer…  Not that I had stepped foot in a K-Mart in 25 years…. 

I have Bill Bonner all ready for the FWIW article today, so if you want to skip past me, and go directly to him, without passing GO or collecting $200, go on, you won’t’ hurt my feelings any…   All I ever do is whine about this, that, and the other thing, any way! 

I receive at least one email a week from a dear reader who wants to know what’s wrong with Silver, and why it can’t narrow down the Gold/ Silver ration, which right now is around 80 to 1….   There’s nothing wrong with Silver, folks… The demand for physical Silver is off the charts, and the deficits in supply are growing…  For three straight years, now, Silver production hasn’t met the demand, but the metals dealers made up the deficit from their stocks… I personally don’t get all that tied up in the Gold/ Silver ratio…  It is what it is…  The thing to remember is that even in Gold’s good years, Silver usually outperforms Gold on a percentage basis….  

So, what I’m saying is to forget about the Golc/ Silver ratio, and concentrate on the physical demand in both metals…   

Well, all the news that’s out there regarding the BRICS has me reminiscing about when I would go out on the road and speak at conferences, and talk about how China was getting countries to sign currency swap agreements with them to eliminate the dollar from the terms of transaction…  I used to tell the crowd that when the Saudi’s and other OPEC Countries came around to sign these agreements, it was the beginning of the end of the dollar as the reserve currency in the world, and thus the end of the dollar as a “petrol currency”, and the end of the dollar, period… 

Why would I be reminiscing about that? Because what I warned investors about, many years ago, is coming to fruition, and that has me beaming from ear to ear…  In June of this year, the Saudi’s announced that they would remove the dollar from its terms of transaction with China & Russia… Uh-Oh!  This is the beginning, folks… The beginning of the end for the dollar… Now this won’t happen overnight, but you bet your bottom dollar that it will occur in the years to come…  

Why didn’t you hear about this on the nightly network news? Or the Cable 24-7 news? Because they are under orders to eliminate any news that is detrimental to the dollar/ U.S.    That’s got to be it, right? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had some real economic data to print… First up was the Retail Sales for Sept, which were exactly what the BHI said they would be,  OK… Not great, just OK… They were up .4%, but without auto sales there were only up .1%…  We also saw the color of Industrial Production in Sept, and it was an awful -.3%… Capacity Utilization saw some weakness to, falling from 77.8 to 77.5%…    Just a friendly neighborhood spiderman reminder that Capacity Utilization is one of two forward looking pieced of data… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has the other piece of data that is forwrd looking for us today as Sept, Leading Indicators will print… This data set has been negative for months now, and I don’t see anything that would change that… And then the rest of the week, up to Friday, is void of any real economic data… So, it’s all about Leading Indicators today… 

To recap… Gold set another all-time high on Friday last week, while Silver outperformed Gold on the day…  Chuck tells of how is thought that if everyone one bought physical Gold / Silver that it would send the short paper traders packing, is playing out right now… But the physical demand has to remain strong!   R.I.P. K-Mart….  And the Saudi’s just stuck a knife in the U.S.’s back, but you didn’t hear about that did you? 

For What it’s Worth…  I teased this a bit above, but I have Bill Bonner talking about price inflation, in his daily letter, that came to me last Friday, and it can be found here: Inflation Nation – by Bill Bonner – Bonner Private Research

Or, here’s your snippet: ” And Jerome Powell et al. are on the job. They had no reason to cut rates last month…except that they are trying to cause inflation, not eliminate it. Spread over the last three years, price inflation is more than three times what the Fed was supposedly looking for. That is, at a 2% annual gain, prices should be about 6% higher than they were in 2021. Instead, they are, officially, 20% higher.  

Unofficially, prices are even higher. This week’s Wall Street Journal, for example, tells us that cost of medical care insurance has gone up at a 7% rate for the last two years:

Health Premiums Soar Even as Inflation is Cooling

Average cost of family coverage reached roughly $25,500 this year… projected to rise rapidly again in 2025.

Or, just look at transportation. The Ford F-150, the most popular pickup in history, left showrooms at $30,000 in 2021. At 2% inflation, the price of this year’s model ought to be $31,800. It’s not. It’s $38,000 — a 26% increase… or four times what it ought to be.

And how about housing? Lower mortgage rates suckered home buyers into big mortgages based on inflated prices and low monthly payments. Then, in 2008, housing prices fell… mortgage lenders went broke… and millions of families lost their homes.

So, the Fed lowered rates even further… and anchored them below zero, in real terms, for a 10-year period. This, of course, led to more housing inflation… and then, to the absurd situation where people had a hard time either buying or selling a house.

With big mortgages, locked in at low rates, sellers couldn’t afford to sell. And with big, new mortgages at much higher rates, buyers couldn’t afford to buy. New housing starts are now back to the level of 1974 — fifty years ago, when the US had 120 million fewer people.

The average house cost about $300,000 in 2007. At 2% inflation, it should cost about $420,000 today. Instead, it’s close to $500,000. And now the Fed has begun a new loosening cycle to make it easier for people to buy a new house. The result? Anticipating more inflation, lenders increased long-term mortgage rates making housing less affordable than ever! “

Chuck again…  And still the Gov’t tells us that inflation is only 2.2%…   Liars all of them! Cheats, all of them!  But then what else would you expect?  It Is An Election year! 

Market Prices 10/21/2024: American Style: A$.6696, kiwi .6064, C$ .7236, euro 1.0860, sterling 1.3033, Swiss $1.1582, European Style: rand 17.5882, krone 10.8926, SEK 10.5136, forint 369.79, zloty 3.9795, koruna 23.2724, RUB 96.29, yen 149.77, sing 1.3117, HKD 7.7725, INR 84.01, China 7.1129, peso 19.95, BRL 5.7227, BBDXY 1,253.29, Dollar Index 103.52, Oil $70.26, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $34.36, Platinum $1.024.00, Palladium $1,055.00, Copper $4.41, and Gold… $2,637.81

That’s it for today… Well, my blood levels are nearing normal again, and I feel much stronger once again… It took its time getting there, but I guess I didn’t have any marathons to run, so it just seemed long….   I’m off the oxygen now, and I’m back to where I was, weight wise before all these escapades began at the beginning of June… Once again, the Good Lord pushed me to the edge, and brought me back… I’ve now used up at least 6 of my lives…  I’m all by myself here these days, and doing fine… But my kids keep checking on me, so I’m so lucky to have them near me…  I have a stand-in writing desk that I work from, as my old desk was trashed after our flood in the house last year…  I haven’t been able to pick out a new desk that I like… I want one just like the one I had!  Oh well, I carry on…  Hall & Oates take us to the finish line today with their song: Sara Smile….   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to get bought
• ECB meets today…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Wel, what a difference a week makes, as I feel this week to be able to participate in any Tub Thumpin’ anyone might want to do today! Last week, a hard no on Tub Thum’in’, but a week later, I’m raring and willing to go! I had my biopsy on the tumor on my mandible yesterday, and I was telling a good friend of mine, that it went better than one could imagine… Now, I sit and wait for the genetic testing lab to come back with something… I’m really frustrated with the process of finding me a new chemo… ,  But .. It is what it is…  Dodgers go up 2-1 in games in the NLCS…  America greets me this morning with their great 70’s song: Lonely People… 

The dollar didn’t move much yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining less than 1 index point on the day… The euro remained below 1.09, and the rest of the currencies remaining in their sick beds… Maybe the dolllar run its course for this period of time… Maybe….  Gold & Silver had great days yesterday with Gold gaining $12 on the day, and Silver gaining 20-cents… Gold closed the day at $2,675.10, and Silver closed at $31.86… I read an article written by Ronnie Stöferle, the guy that puts together the annual book on Gold, In Gold We Trust…  And he went through 5 reasons why he believes Gold is nowhere near reaching a high and petering out… 

Here’s Ronnie with his thought on Gold: “With a gold price of just over USD 2,600 at the end of September, the gold price has reached the year-end forecast of our Incrementum Gold Price Forecast Model for 2024,” he concluded. “Given the further deterioration in economic and (geo)political conditions, the model’s price target of just over USD 4,800 by the end of 2030 will be considered a conservative projection. Against this background, even gold, which became significantly more expensive last year, is still cheap.”  – Ronnie Stöferle

Chuck again… Ronnie is so well thought of when it comes to people talking about Gold that he’s like the old E.F. Hutton commercials… When Ronnie speaks, people listen..  I found that article on kitco.com 

And here’s Ed Steer’s take on the metals/ dollar trading yesterday: “Helped along by another one of those phony baloney dollar index ‘rallies’…the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe made sure that silver’s big break-out attempt in early morning COMEX trading didn’t get far.

It traded as high as $32.38 in the December contract, but ‘da boyz’ made sure it closed below $32 bucks…which it did, at $31.97. Of course — and as is always the case, it would have closed at some rather spectacular 3-digit price if they hadn’t intervened.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil bumped a dollar higher yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $71 handle…  And the 10-year’s buying stopped for a moment, and left the bond with a 4.03% yield to end the day…

In the overnight markets last night….I know I sound like a broken record, but here goes… The dollar continued to get bought overnight, with the BBDXY gaining 1.50 index points…  As far as Gold & Silver are concerned, I don’t mind sounding like a broken record, and so this morning in the early trading, Gold is up $6, while Silver is in search of a bid this morning, down 9-cents…  I’d like to take a minute here and discuss what Ed Steer talked about above, regarding a “fake dollar index rally”… 

Ed and I agree that the dollar keeps getting pulled out of the gutter by the PPT and their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). So, when he says something like that, he detected funny business in the dollar index trading…  

The price of Oil slid back below $71 overnight, and trades this morning with a $70 handle… I truly believe that there are no markets out there that have asset classes that are not manipulated… Oil is included in this discussion… You tell me that all the saber rattling going on in the Middle East doesn’t have Oil trading around $90?   I’m just saying… 

The 10-year’s yield bumps higher overnight to trade with a 4.04% this morning, to start our day. 

I’m dead serious here folks, that every asset class is manipulated…  I’m just saying…. 

Well, the European Central Bank (ECB ) is meeting while my fat fingers go to work this morning… The European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates for the third time this year later today. The first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years would mark a shift in focus for the euro zone’s central bank from bringing down inflation to protecting economic growth.   Really?  oh, Nellie! That’s totally stupid in my opinion, and the euro deserves to be trashed because the ECB is now thought to be on bord to cut 5 times in the next year… But, here’s the thing to think about with the euro… It is the offset currency to the dollar, and if the dollar would be set free to trade without intervention, it would be getting sold, and the euro would be getting bought…   I’m just saying…

And here in the U.S. there was a news story about how Raytheon defrauded the U.S. and got caught with its hands in the cookie jar… Here’s the skinny from the U.S. Justice Dept… “Raytheon Company (Raytheon) — a subsidiary of Arlington, Virginia-based defense contractor RTX (formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation) — will pay over $950 million to resolve the Justice Department’s investigations into: (i) a major government fraud scheme involving defective pricing on certain government contracts and (ii) violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and its implementing regulations, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).”

Chuck again… Ok, here we go again with the “if Chuck was kind” stuff… If I were King, I would tell Raytheon, goodbye, no more business with you, and you are not allowed to sell your goods and intellectual property to anyone outside of the U.S.      But that’s not what will happen… In a few years, mark my words here, a new claim will be made against Raytheon, and everyone will be scratching their collective heads, an  say, “I thought we canned this company a few years ago?”….  I’m just saying… 

And that Ole Debt is being talked about again, with the talker pointing out the U.S., I found this on Zerohedge.com this morning, so let’s listen in: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning about the rising tide of public debt in countries across the globe, with the United States standing out due to its persistent fiscal deficits and mounting spending pressures.

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, released on Oct. 15, projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion in 2024, equal to about 93 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), and could approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. The United States, in particular, faces significant risks if fiscal policies are not adjusted urgently.

The report emphasizes that countries, including the United States, need to address debt risks with carefully crafted fiscal strategies.”

Chuck again… Well, for countries like the U.S. and Japan, the old Carol King song comes to mind… It’s too late baby now it’s too late…. Default on some or most of our debt is going to be our only choice going forward, the Debt is too large to inflate away, although the knuckleheads that run this country are going to give that the old College try, but to no avail… Default is coming to a theater near you… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard finally has some real economic data for us to view today… First up is the Sept report on Retail Sales… I told you earlier in the week that the BHI indicates that Retail Sales will be OK… Not great but OK…  Next up is the Usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, of which I believe we’ll begin to see this report grow with the number of Unemployed people…  Next up is Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, which I don’t think will give anyone goose bumps…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Chuck sounds like a broken record, as he repeats again and again, that the dollar got bought again yesterday and last night…  Gold & Silver found their ways through the gauntlet of short paper trading yesterday to eke out a gain, and are up in the early trading this morning… The ECB meets this morning, and they will most likely cut rates again…  And Raytheon got their hands caught in the cookie jar… 

For What It’s Worth… I pulled this from Ed Steer’s letter this morning after he featured it… This is about how Oranges prices are soaring, so get ready for that, and you can find it here: Orange Juice Prices Near Record Highs Amid Fears Of Worst Florida Harvest In A Century | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Frozen concentrated orange juice futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York are nearing new record highs. The squeeze in the physical markets may drastically worsen after a new citrus grove survey damage report across Florida following Hurricane Milton shows widespread damage.

Industry consultant Judy Ganes told Bloomberg that more than three million boxes of oranges may have been lost after Milton knocked fruit from branches and devastated citrus groves in the Sunshine State. She warned the next Florida harvest could be the worst since the late 1920s.

In recent years, Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, freezing conditions, and citrus greening disease have decimated citrus groves in the state. Milton has only exacerbated those problems. Some of the latest industry figures show that US orange production is set to reach its lowest level in more than a century.

O.J. futures have surged to $5/lb., a staggering 433% jump from the Covid lows of around $1/lb. Worsening supply woes could push prices even higher.”

Chuck again… This situation isn’t going to go anything nice to inflation pricing…  I’m just saying… You know, I used to drink a ton of orange juice, but then I had problems with my blood sugar and ( had to stop drinking it… UGH!

Market Prices 10/17/2024: American Style: A$ .6697, kiwi .6070, C$ .7259, euro 1.0885, sterling 1.3017, Swiss $1.1583, European Style: rand 17.7205, krone 10.9313, SEK 10.5702, forint 364.80, zloty 3.9306, koruna 23.2470, RUB 94.17, yen 149.49, sing 1.3124, HKD 7.7740, INR 84.08, China 7.1214, peso 19.99, BRL 5.6044, BBDXY 1,252.82, Dollar Index 103.47, Oil $70.48, 10-year 4.04%, Silver $31.77, Platinum $1.008.00, Palladium $1,039.00, Copper $4.33, and Gold… $2,681.18

That’s it for today and this week… Kathy was supposed to on a plane heading for S. Florida on Wednesday, but she changed it to Saturday, so as to be here for my biopsy… How nice of her, eh? So, starting Saturday, I’ll be all by myself (Eric Carmen) here… No biggie as I do believe I’m past the difficult time and well on the road to recover… It was a double whammy with me this time, with first the blood loss of the bleeding ulcer, and then the water weight taking me over…I’m back to within 12lbs of where I was with my weight, before all this happened…  YAHOO! My beloved Mizzou Tigers come home to play Auburn this Saturday… Go Tigers! Bob Marley and the Whalers take us to the finish line today, with their song: Three Little Birds….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, oh please, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to get bought…
• But Gold & Silver on firmly on the rally tracks today…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Brrrr… It sure was chilly around here yesterday, and this morning I woke up to temps in the mid-30’s… YIKES!  But the weather guy told me last night that by the weekend it will be warm again… So, that’s good, I only have to wear long pants for a day or so!  I live in shorts and Gold shirts, folks, and cringe when I have to get the long pants out! When our kids were kids, we used to dress up the house with all shorts of Halloween stuff… I even had a ghost that flew across the front of the house when trick-or-treaters came up the walkway to the house…. But we don’t even get the Halloween decorations out any longer… UGH!  I was in New Orleans on Bourbon Street on Halloween years ago… Talk about costumes! Anyway, in years past I always sat outside to give away the candy to the trick-or-treaters… But not this year…  Sugarloaf greets me this morning with their great song: Green Eyed Lady….  all 7 minutes of the song!

Well, the dollar was bought yesterday, not by the bushelful, more like, some casual buying, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points on the day… The euro finally gave up and fell below the 1.09 handle, and the rest of the currencies remain in their respective sick beds…  Gold fought a battle with the short paper traders yesterday, but in the end, Gold closed up $14 yesterday to close at $ 2,663.90, and Silver gained 32-cents to close the day at $31.55.. 

Oil remained trading in the $70 handle yesterday, again, I can’t believe with all the saber rattling going on, that the price of Oil isn’t soaring….    And the Fed Heads must have found a way to get the 10-year’s yield under control, somewhat that is, as the 10-year’s yield fell to 4.03% yesterday… The 10-year’s yield on Friday last week was at 4.10%… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar continued to get bought, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points tp start our day today… There’s nothing behind this buying, folks… It’s all trader sentiment, that’s driving the dollar higher each day, and those same traders have Chuck scratching his bald head…  There’s no way the BBDXY should be at 1.251 this morning, but… It is… I’m going to leave this there, because I can feel my blood pressure rising… 

This morning, there was news that the POTUS candidate, Trump, was speaking about more tariffs…  And the dollar bugs all bought what he was saying…  Didn’t these dollar bugs learn that you don’t listen to candidates spew their promises?  Like all those promises to tax the rich to pay or tax cuts for the folks lower on the totem pole of life… Yeah, I wanna see that one take place…  And that’s my end on political related talk this morning… You know, I don’t like going there, but these promises are getting out of hand, an these latest ones by Trump has the dollar soaring higher…  UGH! 

Gold is up $18 to start our day today, and Silver is up 43-cents!  Here’s what friend, Rich Checkan from ASI said this morning, “As the world waits to see if the conflict in Israel escalates, safe haven gold buying is driving spot prices high despite a relatively strong U.S. dollar. International turmoil continues to drive spot prices, as well as monetary policy.”   Thanks Rich, that more richly said, than my old “saber rattling is causing Gold to rise”… 

I found this on Bloomberg. Com this morning, “In a break to that form, reserve managers from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia and Czech Republic on Monday sang the praises of bigger holdings.

The comments provided unique insight into how they are viewing bullion, with the officials saying that gold as a percentage of their country’s reserves is more likely to increase in the years ahead amid a confluence of growing geopolitical tensions and lower interest rates.

“Given the context that we are facing right now — lower rates, your political tension, US election, a lot of uncertainty — maybe the share of gold in our portfolios could be increasing as well,” said Joaquín Tapia, director of international reserves at Banco de México.”

Chuck again… So, Central Banks are now taking the stage and calling for more physical Gold buying? Well, bust my buttons! I can recall a time when Central Banks around the world were lining up to sell their Gold holdings… And now-a-days, those central banks are probably kicking themselves in the rear for making such a dumb mistake, years ago… Think about this, folks… If Central Banks are touting buying more Gold… Then you should be backing up the truck to take on more too…. Follow the money…. 

And this morning there was a warning from Israel that they will make their own decisions regarding how they address Iran….  In other words, “hey U.S., we’ve got this, leave us along”…  to which if I were running the U.S. I would say, “ok, as you wish”, and take all our troops, and missel defenses, an aircraft carried unit, and go home… Why do we have all that there to begin with, this isn’t our fight? But as long as we are there… It helps Gold’s price… So, there’s that… 

I couldn’t answer the bell again this morning, and thus the lateness of the letter this morning… I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning, but sometimes, my body tells me that it needs to sleep, and I always listen to what my body tells me! 

The U.S. Data cupboard this morning is still lacking with only the Import Prices for Sept. For us to view today… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will be busy with Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all for Sept for us to view…  I don’t expect to see any surprises here tomorrow, so our day of data will disappoint, that’s one thing I’m pretty sure about… 

To recap… The dollar keeps getting bought, and now the dollar bugs are talking about Trump’s promises to add to his tariffs, and that has the dollar soaring this morning… Chuck warms us about listening to candidates promises… Central Banks are now touting their views to buy more physical Gold… And Chuck points out that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander here…. 

For What it’s Worth… This is someone talking about how inflation isn’t dead as the adults in the room are telling us..  Sound like me? Well ,it isn’t… And the article can be found here:Is the Inflation Monster Still Hiding Under the Bed? (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:  “The so-called grownups tell us everything is fine. The inflation monster is gone now.

Or is it?

Sure, most people don’t believe it’s there, but I think the inflation monster is hiding under the bed. The adults in the room say it’s not there. But kiddos, there are signs — if you look close enough.

Money Supply Is Growing – That’s Inflation!

Properly defined, inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit. Price inflation is one symptom of this monetary inflation.

And the money supply is growing.

In other words, we are already back in an inflationary environment.

The M2 money supply bottomed one year ago at $20.60 trillion. Since then, it has crept upward. As of August, it was at 21.17 trillion. That’s the highest level since January 2023.

The money supply has grown on a year-over-year basis for five straight months.

The resurgence of money supply growth is, by definition, inflation. We are already seeing the result as stock market values increase. Whether this new round of inflationary activity finds its way into consumer prices remains to be seen, but the uptick in core CPI is cause for concern.”

Chuck Again…  Again, a different voice for you to hear, other than mind, that has been telling you about money supply for months now… 

Market Price 10/16/2024: American Style: A$ .6683, kiwi .6057, C$ .7257, euro 1.0888, sterling 1.3088, Swiss $1.1584, European Style: rand 17.6252, krone 10.8586, SEK 10.4429, forint 368.50, zloty 3.9501, koruna 23.2341, RUB 96.89, yen 149.50, sing 1.3103, HKD 7.7711, INR 83.99, China 7.7711, peso 19.93, BRL 5.6884, BBDXY 1,251.04, Dollar Index 103.32, Oil $70.96, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $31.92, Platinum $995.00, Palladium $1,018.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,581.39

That’s if tor today… Well, I go to have a biopsy done on the tumor in my jaw today… I wish they would cut the whole darn thing out, but that would be a very messy surgery, and one that the Docs are hoping they don’t have to perform. I climbed the stairs yesterday without oxygen, and… Drum roll please… I wasn’t breathing hard like before when I got to the top! That means my breathing is getting back to normal…  Kathy wasn’t home, so I thought I would give it a try to see how I did without her here telling me not to do it….I also have a Physical Therapy specialist coming to see me this morning…  The Yankees go up 2-0 in the ALCS, as expected… Now they go to Cleveland for games 3-5.. *game 5-if needed) I like the Indians, I mean Guardians, but when you run into a juggernaut, well… You know….  My dad always told me NOT root for any team from the coast, as they have different payrolls than the small market teams, like my beloved Cardinals… So, I’m not rooting for the Yankees, just stating facts…. Triumph takes us to the finish line today, with their song: Magic Power… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourslef…

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals drift on Monday after getting sold the previous night!
• What if a missile goes awry?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! The Yankees won their game 1 of the ALCS last night, while the Mets evened their series with the Dodgers… Baseball is baseball to me, I don’t need my beloved Cardinals to be playing to watch a playoff baseball game! Although that would be nice if they were playing! Autumn is gone! The weather here is downright chilly, and overnight it is cold… UGH!  And you know me… I do NOY enjoy cold weather! Hopefully, this is just a week-long dip in the temps and warmer weather will come back… The Three Dog Night greet me this morning with their song: Mama Told Me Not To Come… 

Well, the dollar buying that went on Sunday night into Monday, where the BBDXY gained 4 index points, petered out during the U.S. session yesterday, thus leaving the BBDXY trading in the same clothes from the previous night. Something strange went on Sunday night, folks… Yesterday, I talked about how I just don’t see the reason for the dollar to be bought, and apparently neither do the U.S. traders…   

Gold & Sliver had seen some early morning selling yesterday, with Gold down $5 and Silver down 26-cents… Well, we went through all the gyrations yesterday to end up with Gold down $5 and Silver down 26-cents!  Gold closed at $2650, and Silver closed at $31.24… So, a “nothing day” for the metals… 

The price of Oil slid by $3 yesterday and ended the day trading with a $71 handle… I found this to be contra to what I was talking about yesterday, regarding all the saber rattling going on in the world… One would think that outbreaks of war around the world would disrupt Oil deliveries and therefore cause a rise in the price of Oil…  I guess that “one” is me, because that’s not happening right now… 

The 10-year saw its yield drop 1 basis point yesterday to 4.09%…  I hope the Fed Heads are happy to see the yield of the 10-year stop rising… Well, for now that is… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar didn’t move much, certainly not like it did the previous night! The BBDXY sits at 1,247 to stat the day today… The currencies all look sick this morning, and in need of some TLC… Gold is up $6 to start the day today, and Silver is up 4-cents…  With all the saber rattling going on right now, I’m surprised that Gold and the price of Oil aren’t soaring… I guess we’ll have to wait, eh?   The thing that pushed the price of oil down to a $71 handle was a report that Israel will not target Iran’s Oil supplies… But what happens if a missile goes awry?  Oops, my bad… And all hell breaks loose… 

Someone, can you say the Fed Heads?, bought the 10-year last night and drove the yield down to 4.06%… I said the other day that the Fed Heads were working diligently to get the 10-year’s yield lower…Why would they do that? Ahhh, grasshopper, come sit, and take a listen…  The Fed Heads are under strict orders to get inflation going again to help deal with the debt… And they are having a difficult time doing that, given that they cut interest rate 50 Basis Points, and the markets shrugged it off.. And now bond yields are rising, when they should be falling… Oh My! What’s a poor Fed Head to do? 

Yesterday’s FWIW article featured James Rickards and his thought on what’s driving investors around the world from the dollar…  And today, James Rickards talks about the BRICS and the rumor that they will be announcing a Gold Backed currency at their next meeting 10/22-24…  Well, isn’t that the same thing I talked about yesterday? So, once again this represents another voice for you to listen to…   

The thing I did fail to mention yesterday regarding this new potential Gold Backed Currency is that it won’t take the place of the dollar as the reserve currency in the world, right away… It will take time for countries to wait-n-see if the currency works… I’m sure that’s the bee in the bonnet of the people putting this currency together… 

I read an article on Bloomberg.com about how the Aussie dollar is receiving a ton of interest and flyers to buying it from hedge fund guys. And the reason they are doing so, is the stimulus that China introduced a couple of weeks ago… If you’ve forgotten what I explained to you, years ago, then come sit, grasshopper, and listen….   China and Australia are HUGE trading partners… And anything that promotes trading of goods and services is good for both currencies… And since the Chinese renminbi has already seen a ton of buying, the attention now goes to the Aussie dollar (A$)…  And what do I always tell you to do? Follow the money! 

The jury is still out on the Chinese stimulus, but from the reports I read, it’s only a matter of time for them to begin working…   

The Good Folks at GATA sent me a note yesterday from researcher Alasdair Macleod, game a speech the other day and had this to say: ” Inflation isn’t finished but the dollar soon may be”…  So, he’s also on board with the thought that the BRICS Gold Backed Currency will be the kryptonite that ruins the dollar’s day… The bandwagon of people that believe this about the BRICS currency, is growing by leaps and bounds, folks… Are you on it? 

Speaking of Gold…  did you hear the news?  This in from the good folks at GATA: ” the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange have just announced what they call the first gold-backed college scholarships of the modern era. The sponsors are putting aside 100 ounces of gold to underwrite seven scholarships, ranging from $500 to $2,500, starting this year. Five of the scholarships are available to high school seniors and undergraduate students and two to graduate students.”

Chuck again… The youngsters applying for this scholarships must write a response to 4 questions that are asked, of which one of them goes like this: “- How has the Federal Reserve System helped or hurt the American economy?

Man, do I ever wish that I was a young man, knowing what I know now so that I could answer the questions and win that scholarship!  

And going further with Gold this morning…  Ed Steer featured a video in his letter last week, where Gold was discussed getting revalued…   I have a piece of the video’s verbiage, that can be found here: Gold Revaluation Could SHOCK People | Andy Schectman (youtube.com)  here’s the piece I have for you: “Miles Franklin Precious Metals CEO Andy Schectman asserts that central banks are strategically accumulating gold, while hinting at a potential revaluation that could significantly impact the global economy. He references a historical conversation involving Henry Kissinger, emphasizing that maintaining a gold standard provides countries with substantial leverage in international finance. Andy believes that this revaluation could be a method for central banks to manage debt and inflation without resorting to outright hyperinflation or default. He warns that as more people begin to recognize gold’s value, the availability of precious metals will dwindle, making proactive investment crucial now. Ultimately, he posits that those who hold gold will hold the power in an increasingly uncertain financial landscape.”

Chuck again…  Hey! I kinda like it when I can get quotes from people that use up all the space of my letter! HA!

Before we head to the Big Finish today….  Well, I need to apologize for the wrong header to yesterday’s Pfennig…  I forgot to change it, simple as that, no excuses… Like I was up most of the night… No… I simply forgot…  The heading was supposed to be: What’s Going On Here?

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have any real economic data for us today, or tomorrow,  and on Thursday, we’ll see Retail Sales for Sept. And Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for Sept… So, nothing today or tomorrow and Thursday will be busy…  The Butler Household Index (BHI ) indicates that Retail Sales will show a fair amount of sales in the month of Sept….  I recall many days of deliveries being left at our door! 

To recap… The dollar buying that took place Sunday night/ /Monday morning ended in the U.S. session yesterday… But there was no dollar selling or profit taking,  going on yesterday, so the BBDXY ended the day up 5 index points that were made in the overnight session… Gold & Silver went through gyrations yesterday to end up in the same clothes they were in during the early morning trading… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, lookie here! We have the great Ray Dalio for our FWIW writer this morning…  Ray proposes a good question this morning about ownership of Gold, and it can be found here: If You Don’t Own Gold, You Know Neither History Nor Economics -Ray Dalio – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:  “In a recent series of interviews, billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, has sounded the alarm on an impending economic paradigm shift that could dramatically reshape the financial landscape. Dalio, known for his deep understanding of economic history and market cycles, is urging investors to reconsider their portfolio strategies, with a particular emphasis on gold allocation

“If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics,” Dalio emphatically stated, underscoring the precious metal’s crucial role in navigating the turbulent economic waters ahead.

Dalio’s concerns stem from what he perceives as unsustainable levels of government and corporate debt, coupled with aggressive central bank policies that are devaluing currencies. He predicts that within the next 18 months, we may witness a significant economic contraction and a restructuring of debt and finance that will catch many unprepared.

“We are currently in the late and perilous phase of the long-term debt cycle,” Dalio explained. “The levels of debt assets and liabilities have soared to such heights that it has become challenging to offer lender-creditors a sufficiently high interest rate in relation to inflation.”

The investment guru foresees a challenging scenario where the U.S. Treasury will be forced to issue substantial amounts of debt, potentially surpassing available demand. This could lead to either significantly higher interest rates or extensive money printing by the Federal Reserve, further devaluing the currency.

In light of these projections, Dalio is advocating for a minimum 10-15% allocation to gold in investment portfolios. He views gold as a crucial diversifier and a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainties.”

Chuck again…Nothing new here… Especially the allocation ratios…  for over 15 years, I spoke at conferences all over North America, Central America and even in London, once and I would tell attendees that they needed to have an allocation of 10-15% in metals for their investment portfolios, when Gold’s price was strong, and even going as high as 20%… So, what’s your allocation?   

Market Prices 10/15/2024: American Style: A$.6719, kiwi .6094, C$ .7235, euro 1.0907, sterling 1.3079, Swiss $1.1605, European Style: rand 17.5591, krone 10.7103, SEK 10.3592, forint 357.18, zloty 3.9369, koruna 23.1401, RUB 94.25, yen 149.25, sing 1.3088, HKD 7.7676, INR 84.03, China 7.1137, peso 19.51, BRL 5.6052,  Dollar Index 103.12, Oil $70.71, 10-year 4.06%, Silver $31.30, Platinum $988.00, Palladium $1,020.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $2,656.12

That’s it for today… Well, my breathing is getting much better, and the water weight is dropping off me quickly… I need to keep improving the breathing so I can return the oxygen tanks and oxygen making machine…  it is what it is, but it is a pain in the rear! I’m still holding out hope that I won’t need the surgery to take the fluid away from my heart… Kathy’s aunt said to me on Sunday, “I bet you wish you could just be back to my normal self”…    I thought about that later, and thought, “my normal self, is that before or after cancer?”  oh well… Life goes one…  my appt. calendar gets really full the rest of the week starting tomorrow..  On Friday, this week I have 2 doctor appts!  Everybody wants to see that I’m still alive!  Tommy Tutone takes us to the finish line today with his 80’s song: 867-5309/ Jenny…  Every band in the 80’s played that song… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and I hope you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Currencies & metals rally late last week…
• But get sold in the overnight markets last night!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… This is, for some of us, Columbus Day, and for other that like to burst balloons, Indigenous Peoples Day… I used to take Columbus Day off, and not write, but now that I’m so far behind I just had to write today… So, it’s the Dodgers/ Mets in the NLCS, and Yankees/ Indians (I mean Guardians) in the ALCS… These baseball games have been exciting and thrilling at times… A good Playoffs year for Baseball so far! Before I go any further, I want to acknowledge all the dear readers who sent me a note regarding my latest bout with health… Thank you so much, from the bottom of my heart, they are all truly appreciated! 

Well, the dollar is still strong, and has me scratching my bald head, wondering what the heck is going on here?  Interest rates will be lowered in the future, maybe not at a quick rate the markets all want, but lowered nevertheless… I told you before that rate cuts equal debasing for the country’s currency…  And right now the dollar is set to be submitted to quite a bit of debasing… So, why is the dollar strong? 

On Thursday last week, the dollar ran into some selling but, that was just it, it was just “some selling”, and the BBDXY lost 2 index points to 1,243…  Not exactly a “selloff”… Of any stripe… And on Friday, the BBDXY lost 1 index point to end the week at 1,242… 3 index points are not going to get the currencies out of their respective sick beds… 

In Gold & Silver, after spending multiple days in the short paper traders trance, finally broke away on Thursday… Gold gained $23 and Silver gained .63-cents, and then they both followed  those gains with more gains on Friday, as Gold gained $27 to end the week at $2,656.90, and Silver gained 39-cents to end the week $31.50

I’ll say this now, so maybe you’ll hear me later… With all the saber rattling going on with the U.S. in the middle of it, one would think that Gold would be a one-way ticket to Happy Days…   With Silver going along for the ride! 

In addition, countries all over the world are back to easing rates… Last week, we had the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates again, and this time they cut their Official Cash Rate 50 Basis Points to 4.75%… In line with the dollar, but not a good thing for kiwi…  

The price of Oil ended the week with a $75 handle… All the saber rattling is helping the price of Oil stabilize… And the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 4.10% yield… I have to believe that the Fed Heads are doing their best to keep this yield from going higher… So, I guess we’ll see who wins…   the bond boys or the Fed Heads… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Whoa there Nelly! What on earth is going on here? The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair last night, and the BBDXY is up 4 index points this morning…  I just don’t get it, but, as I always say, it is what it is…  So, the dollar is in rally mode this morning to start our week… Gold is seeing some selling in the early trading and is down $5 to start our day/ week. Silver too, is down 26-cents… This is a typical Monday morning, as far as I’m concerned… Rainy days and Mondays always get me down…  I really couldn’t answer the bell this morning to start it off too!  

The price of Oil dipped to $74 overnight, and the 10-year is trading at 4.10%…  Come to think of it, this bulging 10-year’s yield, could be one reason why the dollar is so strong these days… But, IF the 10-year is getting bought, along with the dollar, we would see some weakness in the yield…  So, that theory has got some work to do, before going prime time… 

Well, did you get your notice from the SSA that most likely you will receive a 2.5% raise in your SSA check for 2025? That is the COLA increase… Cost of Living adjustment…  Wait, What?  John Williams tells me that consumer inflation is running about 8%… Shouldn’t the COLA be closer to that number? Oh, well, the premiums for Medicare will just increase as much, so don’t go buying a boat with your increase! 

At a Conference years ago, I stood on a stage and told the crowd that the newly formed BRICS would one day be something to reckon with…  I had many attendees stop by the booth and tell me how wrong I was that the BRICS wouldn’t be around in 10 years, etc. etc. I wish I could go back in time with what I know about the BRICS now! Pretty soon, on the calendar, the BRICS will have their annual meeting and there are some that think that the BRICS will introduce a new Gold Backed currency… Now, I’m not one to spread rumors, so I’ll just say that it would be incredible if they did announce a new Gold Backed currency… Talk about a way to get investors interested in your new currency!  We won’t have to wait too long to see if the rumors are true, as the BRIX will next meet Rocktober 22-24… 

Well, there was an article on Bloomberg.com this morning about how the euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting….  I talked about this last week in my one Pfennig in the last two weeks! So, that’s got me thinking that the Bloomberg.com writer of the story got his idea from the Pfennig?  Now that would be a hoot, wouldn’t it? There was a time when I was the only “go-to” for the media who wanted to know what was going on in the currency markets…  I would be the only speaker at conferences that would be taking about the currencies, and so forth…  But that’s no more…  Everybody and their brothers writes about the currencies now-a-days…  

Not that that information is what you opened the email to read, so sorry about that but once again my fat fingers started flying across the laptop, and there you go! 

It appears that the higher for longer idea about interest rates around the world is coming to an end…. And looking back on it, the idea didn’t really pan out, did it?  I don’t feel that interest rates here in the U.S. were ever “high”, and I certainly don’t believe that interest rate levels didn’t last very long… So, once again false advertising from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… And the rest of the world is just following what the Fed Heads do.. So, shame on them for not having any intestinal fortitude to actually fight inflation…

Speaking of inflation… Even using the STUPID CPI, inflation showed once again that it is sticky, and not going away that easily, as the Fed Heads would have you believe… The consumer price index rose 2.4% in September from 12 months earlier, slightly higher than the 2.3% expected, and that fact brought CBS news to proclaim that “U.S. inflation continued to cool in September. ”  Wait, What? What on earth were they looking at?   I shake my head in disbelief that they get away with the lies, I mean things they come up with… 

The U.S. Cupboard this week is pretty lacking until Thursday, that is… I talked last week about the multiple of Fed Speakers there our on the speaking circuit, and how i wondered if at least one of them might say something worth our time?   Well, the answer to that question is a big fat NO!  All those speakers and not one of them said anything worth the paper their notes were printed on…  (The stupid outlook program that tries to soften my writing is at it again, and once again I ignore it!)

To recap… Well, on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar saw a small amount of selling…  But in the overnight markets last night the dollar got bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair!  Gold & Silver got bought late last week, but are seeing some selling to start our week today… Euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting, as Chuck first talked about last week!  

For What It’s Worth…  Above this morning, I talked about the BRICS, and the rumor that they would be announcing a new Gold Backed currency, and IF true that would change the currency markets going forward… And then I came across this article by James Rickards, that talks about how change goes slowly and then suddenly, and it can be found here: Gradually, Then Suddenly – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30–40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Then in 1944, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing.

Today, the existing monetary system is over 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a change.

I’ve written for years about different nations’ persistent efforts to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the leading global reserve currency and the main medium of exchange.

At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades.

While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, the U.S. initiated the most aggressive sanctions regime ever in its efforts to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.

The first round of financial targets included obvious attacks such as freezing the U.S. dollar accounts of Russian banks and oligarchs. The second round raised the ante by freezing the dollar accounts of the Central Bank of Russia itself. This was unprecedented except in the case of rogue states such as Iran, North Korea and Syria.

Suddenly the central bank of the world’s ninth-largest economy and third-largest oil producer with over $2.1 trillion in GDP found itself shut out of the global payments and banking systems.

They U.S. is  also driving countries away from using dollars in international transactions for fear that they could become the next target of U.S. displeasure.

I’ve been warning about this for years. Almost 10 years ago, I sat in a secure conference room at the Pentagon and explained to a group of U.S. national security officials from the military, CIA, Treasury and other agencies that the overuse of the U.S. dollar in financial warfare would eventually compel nations to seek dollar alternatives.”

Chuck again… As always, James Rickards’ writings are bang on…  

Market Prices 10/14/2024: American Style: A$ .6705, kiwi .6071, C$ .7298, euro 1.0909, sterling 1.3034, Swiss $1.1589, European Style; rand 17.5155, krone 10.7818, SEK 10.4379, forint 367.82, zloty 3.9328, koruna 23.1412, RUB 96.43, yen 149.78, sing 1.3087, HKD 7.7618, INR 83.05, China 7.0888, peso 19.35, BRL 5.6348, BBDXY 1,247.09. Dollar Index 103.29, Oil $74.01, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $31.24, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,040.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $2,651.73

That’s it for today… Yesterday we celebrated our little Evie’s 5th birthday…  She is so darned cute!  My first granddaughter, Delaney Grace, was there shortly, and my mind kept going back in time to when Delaney was 5…  Strange how the mind works, eh? My beloved Mizzou Tigers got back on the winning tracks last Saturday, hopefully they’ve learned their lesson about how to be prepared for an opponent! I fell asleep last night watching the Dodgers bash the Mets in game 1 of the NLCS… Isn’t this how we all thought the NL would go this year, with the Dodgers going to the World Series?  You get what you pay for, is the old adage that’s appropriate here… And ex-Cardinals pitcher, threw the shutout for the Dodgers… UGH! Mitch Ryder and the Detroit Wheels take us to the finish line this morning, with their song: Jenny Take A Ride/ CC Rider… A real seat dancing song!  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• It’s all about the dollar these days…
• China is back from their weeklong holiday…

Good Day… And a tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! You’ll have to excuse me from participating in any Tub Thumpin’, folks… One thought I had about the last week, while I was in the hospital… Is that, I feel like I’m way too young to have these problems! But, then I think about my age, and next March, I’ll turn 70!  I met a doctor in the hospital for the first time who was absolutely amazed that I was still kicking it, after my cancer diagnosis 18 years ago!  He said, “Who lives 18 years with metastatic renal cell carcinoma?” This guy! Supertramp greets me this morning with their song: Take The Long Way Home… 

Ok, so do you want to know what my major problems are?  If not, simply go down 2 paragraphs, where the markets talk begins…  It’s all about cancer and chemo…  You see, the chemo that I was taking, caused my body to retain water, and before I knew it, I had gained 40 pounds… I also have fluid around my heart, that is very disturbing to me…  It will have to be gotten rid of either by medicine or with very risky surgery…  That fluid is causing my breathing and blood oxygen to plummet…  So, I now have a oxygen tank following me everywhere I go… UGH!…  So, the jury is still out on how the medicine will do as far as removing the fluid…    

OK, I talked about how the chemo I was taking caused all this water/ fluid buildup… So, why not stop taking the chemo?  And I did… But the problem in the weeds here is that this chemo was the very last chemo that is directed at kidney cancer that is out there…  I’ve taken them all in 18 years, as there is no one out there that thought anyone would still be alive to take chemo after 18 years…   So, now the tumor in my mouth, without taking anything to stop its growth, is growing quickly… So, now I’m going to have to have it degrowthed, with surgery…  This is a recurring trend isn’t it?  So, there are my two health problems in a nutshell… I really don’t know how I’ll be able to get through all this, and still dedicate my time to writing the Pfennig…  But, I’ll carry on, my wayward son, (Kansas) despite my short-comings… 

Ok… What on earth has gone on in my absence? The dollar was teetering on the edge of the cliff, and now it’s soaring once again… What changed? Well, first, we had the PPT enter the markets and buy dollars once again, and that put a tourniquet around the bleeding dollar, and since then, everything I read is about how the markets don’t believe the Fed Heads about cutting rates more this year… 

The currencies have all been returned to their respective sick beds… Even the currencies with higher interest rates than the dollar…  The Petrol Currencies, sans the ruble, are holding their ground VS the dollar, but that’s only a consolation… The price of Oil has recovered nicely, and trades with a $75 handle… And all those people that bought the 10-year Treasury thinking that it would continue to rally with the thought that the Fed Heads were in a rate cutting cycle, have BIG losses as the 10-year’s yield is up to 4.05%…. Just two weeks ago, after the Fed cut rates 50 Basis Points, the 10-year’s yield dropped to 3.68%…  When I used to trade bonds, I could calculate the loss in bond price from a move in yields like that… But that talent escaped me long ago….  Just trust me on this, that’s a BIG loss for those bond holders, should they panic and attempt to get out of the bond…  I’m just saying… 

And Gold & Silver have seen their gains chopped down by the short paper traders…  The two metals have seen days where they rally, only to be squashed by the short paper traders the next day…  Monday, was one of those days where the metals rallied… Now, if the trend continues, they’ll get sold on Tuesday, and that’s exactly what happened…  UGH!  The demand for physical Gold is still strong, and that’s the reason the short paper traders are in the markets daily…  

In the overnight markets last night…  Well the dollar bugs have all shut down until they see the color of the STUPID CPI today…  The BBDXY is flat this morning at 1,244…  Gold and Silver have clocked in on a day when they get bought… Gold is up $5 and silver i up 9-cent to start the day today…  I have a quote for you from Ed Steer’s letter this morning… Here’s Ed: “s I keep saying — and you should already know by now, precious metal prices in particular — and all commodity prices in general would be eye-popping values if the commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t watching over them 24/7.” Ed can be found www.edsteergoldsliver.com

Remember after Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, announced that the Fed Heads has voted to cut rates 50 Basis Points, and I said, ” The last time the Fed Heads cut rates 50 Basis Point, was in the middle of the Great Financial Crises., so is that what we have to look forward to? Or… Was this just the Fed Heads kowtowing to their masters, Wall Street?  I would have to believe that this was the latter of the two… And was more political than anything else.”   

Well, it seems that thought that it was a political move is really catching on… Here’s a headline news story that came my way, “Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure”  if you want to read the article it can be found here: Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure

The European Central Bank (ECB ) cut rates at their last meeting, and is being thought of as in a rate cut cycle, so that means that more rate cuts will come…  And that won’t help the euro…  Another thing that I saw the other day was that Physical Gold had replaced the euro as the number 2 reserve of Central Banks around the world…  Yet, another chink in the armor of the euro…  I’m just saying…   But remember, as the offset to the dollar, the euro has proven through the years, that it can rally when the dollar is getting sold, no matter what the economic fundamentals show in the eurozone….. 

The folks over at The Motley Fool, pointed out last week that Money Supply is growing again in 2024… Uh-Oh! Money Supply equals inflation… I’ll go to my grave saying those words… In fact maybe I can get Kathy to put that on my grave marker….    This growth of money supply is the reason that I think the Fed Heads’ thought that they have defeated inflation is a pipe dream…   

And the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC didn’t wait too long after returning from their weeklong holiday to allow the renminbi to gain a lot VS the dollar, thus making up for their time away… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.07 handle… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard Tuesday had nothing but Fed Head speakers… Tons of them!  Maybe one of these knuckleheads said something that made sense….  Maybe….   Yesterday,  there were more Fed Head speakers, so they get another chance to say something profound!  In addition, we’ll see the color of the STUPID CPI for Sept….  This ought to be special as the church lady used to say…   I don’t trust any Gov’t report any longer, as all of them are being revised to show favorable results for the administration….   I just say, take them with only a few grains of salt, my dear reader friends… 

Unfortunately, the markets don’t view it logically like I do… They’ll take whatever number the Gov’t prints for the STUPID CPI as the gospel, and run with it… 

To recap…  the dollar is in a completely different pace than it was before Chuck left for the hospital last week… More intervention caused the change in the seasons for the dollar, and since then, it’s been all about how the markets are not fully behind the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel regarding their call for more rate cuts…  Chairman, Powell, tried to let the markets down softly, the other day by telling them that the Fed Heads are NOT in any hurry to cut rates…. And the metals take one step forward and two steps backward in trading… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, like I said above, the demand for physical Gold is still strong, and here’s some proof in the pudding for that statement… The article can be found here: Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge, Survey Finds | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Costco shoppers are purchasing the store’s 1-ounce gold bars at a high rate despite the precious metal’s record-high prices in recent months, according to a recent survey.

Around 77 percent of Costco outlets that sell bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, a Bloomberg survey found.

The news outlet and financial services company said it surveyed 101 stores in 46 states that sell gold and recently restocked the precious metal.

The apparently high number of sales comes even as gold prices have surged in the past year or so. In the past 12 months, gold is up about 41 percent, going from around $1,864 per ounce to $2,640 per ounce.

According to data provided by the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), the spot price for gold hit a record $2,686 per ounce on Sept. 26.

Costco started selling the 1-ounce gold bars in late 2023 in its stores and via its website, available only to members.

Since then, the company has started selling silver coins and now platinum bars and coins.

Wells Fargo in April estimated that the big-box retailer is selling up to $200 million in gold per month.

“Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and high level of customer trust,” Edward Kelly, an analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a note to clients at the time.

“The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick online sell-outs of product, and [Costco’s] robust monthly [ecommerce] sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch,” he added.

Meanwhile, Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip told Bloomberg that gold and silver are a “meaningful part” of the company’s growth, adding that Costco is happy to have the capacity to offer those products.”

Chuck again…  Think about this for a moment… Costco is a bulk items business, at sometimes discount price, which pretty much describes the clientele…  Nothing wrong with that, my wife, is a member!  The point I’m trying to make here is that these are different kinds of buyers, that don’t appear to be frightened by the high price of Gold…    I’m just saying, for all of you out there that have still got to increase your investment portfolio allocation to metals… 

Market Prices 10/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6715, kiwi .6072, C$ .7271, euro 1.0933, sterling 1.3011, Swiss $1.1633, European Style: rand 17.5990, krone 10.7840, SEK 10.3962, forint 366.29, zloty 3.9381, koruna 23.7650, RUB 97.44, yen 149.00, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7717, INR 83.87, China 7.0774, peso 19.48, BRL 5.5931, BBDXY 1,244.67, Dollar Index 102.96, Oil $74.13 10-year 4.09%, Silver $30.59, Platinum $956.00, Palladium $ 1,048.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,612.80

That’s it for today… Well, I really did want to write yesterday, but I couldn’t answer the bell in the morning…  And by the time I did awake, the markets were going full swing… So I wouldn’t have been able to give you any foresight to make a markets decision…  thinking back to the last week… My poor arms and hands, from al the needle sticks into them… OUCH! If I had been in a car wreck and the paramedics looked at my arms they  would think I was a drug addict! I had some great nurses last week, Becky, and Lauren were the best! I’ll be sure to mention that when they send my survey! What the hell was that from my beloved Mizzou Tigers last week?  I told them that they couldn’t come out flat in SEC games, and they did’t listen!   And now a team that was well thought of in August, is out of the College playoffs picture… There’s still time to get back into the picture, but there has to be a change in this team’s intestinal fortitude…. I’m just saying….   Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Rikki Don’t Lose That Number… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today… And that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

Good Day… and I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday today… I’m not sure what’s going on with me… but I’m headed to the hospital this morning to see if they can figure out why my blood oxygen level has dropped so quickly to dangerous levels …

So no Pfennig today… 

Tell you more tomorrow 

chuck Butler