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• The long run of dollar rallies ends overnight
• The will they cut rates or not will become a broken record…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the Midwest got hit by a winter storm this past weekend, and winter came to S. Florida… The contrast on temperatures, etc. I won’t get into, because my friends don’t like it when I do! The NFL playoff teams are set, so let the playoffs begin! And the final four college teams are in the Semifinals… OSU, PS, TU, and ND… Should be some good games! It was a great Friday night in St. louis, as the SLU Billikens won, and the Blues won!  Gary Wright greets me this morning with his song:  Love Is Alive…

I saw Gary Wright open up for Peter Frampton back in the day, and Gary only had keyboard players on stage…. Very Interesting…. 

Well, Friday, last week was just another day for the dollar to gain more ground…. This is really getting out of hand, and the dollar is so overbought right now, that something has to give at some time! The BBDXY gained 2 index points on Friday. The euro has fallen to a 102 handle, and it hasn’t been that weak since it was on its way up from 98 when it was first introduced….  Yes, I was trading currencies back then…. In fact, in 1998, I attended a currency conference in London, and the moderator asked, “Let’s see a show of hands of who doesn’t believe the euro will survive?” And I immediately raised my hand… At that point, there were just too many questions about the euro that I really didn’t think it would work…. 

I soon found out that I was wrong about that, and the euro quickly became the 2^nd highest volume currency traded in the world, and the offset currency to the dollar…. 

OK, enough history today…. Gold was sold on Friday, after gaining $32 on Thursday, it lost $17.80 on Friday… And Silver, after gaining 65-cents on Thursday, was able to hang on to 7-cents of gain on Friday…  Gold ended the week at $2,640, and Silver at $29.68…  On Kitco.com yesterday, they had an article of which I pulled this quote; “After gaining nearly 30% in 2024 – outperforming every commodity and all but a handful of assets – gold prices are still inspiring confidence among many industry experts, while most retail traders see the yellow metal breaking above $3,000 per ounce in 2025.”

So, how many gyrations will we have to live with to get to $3,000?  The short paper traders will still be knocking at the door, and the dollar is supposedly going to remain strong throughout 2025.( that I have a problem believing, but so be it)… So, IF we get to $3,000 it will be a tug-of-war, and I’ll lose more hair trying to make sense of it all… 

The price of Oil bumped higher on Friday and ended the week trading with a $73 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield rise to 4.60% to end the week….  The Oil price is finally reacting to the tinder box of the Middle East, it took them awhile to get going, and sometimes I wondered if they really realized what was going on over there.

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar selloff that I anticipated began…. But is it here to stay? Or, is this just a knee-jerk reaction to the report that came out last night regarding the Trump Tariffs?  Here’s Bloomberg.com with the skinny: “The dollar fell by the most since November 2023 after the Washington Post reported that aides to Donald Trump are considering narrowing the scope of his tariff plan. Stocks advanced, fueled by tech gains.”

Chuck again… The BDDXY has lost 11 index points overnight, and the euro has gained 2 full cents to 1.04 handle this morning… This is wild and crazy folks… One minute the dollar is kicking tail and taking names later, and then it’s not!  I’m not kidding here . This is a one-time fall in the BBDXY that I don’t recall seeing before. Now, if this selling can see some follow through, then we might be getting to the scenario for the dollar that I’ve imagined before… 

Gold is not reacting to this dollar selloff that I would think, but the day is young…. Gold is up $3 to start the day/ week…. Silver is getting bought by the fistful… Silver is up 25-cents to start the day/ week today…  This is not a typical start to the year that we’ve seen lately, where the dollar gets bought to start the year, all the forecasters come out and say, “This is the dollar’s year”, only to see the dollar turn around and get sold the rest of the year…. So to speak…. 

The price of oil bumped higher again overnight to trade this morning with a $74 handle… And the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield is 4.60% to start the day / week this morning…. 

One of the currencies that has historically fought off Dollar strength, the Chinese renminbi, has really plunged with most of the plunging coming at year’s end…. The renminbi is 7.32 to the dollar…. Just last September, the renminbi was 7.01 to the dollar….  And I recall the renminbi trading at 6.30 to the dollar a couple of years ago…. But that was before the world began to unravel….     And I’m sure the Chinese leaders don’t mind if their currency is weak, as it helps offset the effects of the tariffs on their exports to the U.S.  But at 7.32?  That’s quite weak, and I suspect the Chinese to do something about that much weakness soon….  Watch for news about a Stimulus, or something to hep the currency ro gain just a tad…

I read on Bloomberg.com this past weekend that Hedge Funds are eyeing a dollar/ euro parity level…. Really…. These guys really give me a rash… They get wild hair about something, and they go hog-heaven on it…. Well, I hope they get the slop from these ideas…. 

Now, that’s not nice, Chuck….  OK, I’m sorry…. But they do give me a rash!  

OK, longtime reader, Bob, sent me a link to a blog written by Bill Totten, who has been doing this for a long time too, and it his blog he had this: “China has tightened its export bans on materials with military applications. Its customs office is approving sales only to well-known end users, and for non-military use only.

China also has successfully closed off access to its markets by brokers and resellers. These hubs in Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, and London report being unable to procure any metals in 2024.”

Chuck again… Well, this will only be good for metals prices…. Because the of the lack of supply… And the U.S. can’t decide to ramp up production, because that would take years to come to fruition….  

Well, we’ve got more than 3 weeks of hammering and talk about whether the Fed Heads are going to cut rates at their first FOMC meeting 1/29….   If you can believe one of the Fed Heads who had this to say last week: “Fed’s Barkin: We must see inflation at 2% or weakening in demand to cut rates.”  Hmmm…. I wonder where this guy was when the first rate cut came through back in September, because inflation certainly wasn’t anywhere close to 2% at that time?  So, we’re going to hear a lot of back and forth from the Fed Heads, and economists, and analysts, on whether or not there will be a rate cut this month….  Doesn’t make a hill of beans to me… The dollar is on a roll right now and if they did cut rates, and debase the currency even more, it wouldn’t hurt the dollar, so, fundamentals are out the window right now…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has a couple of real economic reports for us to see, like today’s Nov. Factory Orders print…. I suspect that this report will print negative once again….  Last week, I had jumped the gun with my telling you that the Jobs Jamboree was last Friday…. That was obviously incorrect, sorry, and the Jobs Jamboree will be this Friday…. And the so-called experts have forecast that just 155,000 jobs were created in December…. Well, I’m sure the BLS won’t have any of that, and has arms full of jobs created out of thin air to add to the surveys….  I’m just saying…. 

To recap… Friday was another day and therefore another day for the dollar to rally…. Chuck mentions that the Hedge Fund guys are eyeing the euro at parity with the dollar…. UGH!  Gold gained on Thursday and lost on Friday… C’mon gold traders pick a lane! The Chinese are playing with their currency and allowing it to weaken to offset the effects of the tariffs on their exports to the U.S. , but Chuck thinks the weakening has gone too far…. And will the Fed Heads cut rates 1/29 or not? Only the Shadow Knows…. And in the overnight markets the dollar got ambushed by 11 index points in the BBDXY…. 

For What It’s Worth….  I have been accused of being a gloom and doom guy in the past… And yes, while I do walk in those circles, I don’t believe that all this mess will cause an end to the world… But a new beginning after it all collapses… This article ti from Doug Noland who admits the same thing, and it can be found here: It’s Not the End of the World – Doug Casey’s International Man

Or, here’s your snippet: “Periodically, I’ll encounter someone who has read one of my essays and has decided not to pursue them further, stating, “You’re one of those ‘End of the world’ guys. I can’t be bothered reading the writings of someone who thinks we’re all doomed. I have a more positive outlook than that.”

In actual fact, I agree entirely with his latter two comments. I can’t be bothered reading the thoughts of a writer who says we’re all doomed, either. I, too, have a more positive outlook than that.

My one discrepancy with such comments is that I don’t by any means think that the present state of events will lead to the end of the world, as he assumes.

But then, neither am I naïve enough to think that if I just hope for the best, the powers that be will cease to be parasitical and predatory out of sympathy for me. They will not.

For any serious student of history, one of the great realisations that occurs at some point is that governments are inherently controlling by nature. The more control they have, the more they desire and the more they pursue. After all, governments actually produce nothing. They exist solely upon what they can extract from the people they rule over. Therefore, their personal success is not measured by how well they serve their people, it’s measured by how much they can extract from the people.

And so, it’s a given that all governments will pursue ever-greater levels of power over their minions up to and including the point of total dominance.

It should be said that, on rare occasions, a people will rise up and create a governmental system in which the rights of the individual are paramount. This was true in the creation of the Athenian Republic and the American Constitution, and even the British Magna Carta.”

Chuck again… This is a long article, so you’ll have to go to the link to read it all…. 

Market Prices 1/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6294, kiwi .5678, C$ .6998, euro 1.0419, sterling 1.2634, Swiss $1.1084, European Style: rand 18.4734, krone 11.2634, SEK 11.1084, forint 398.10, zloty 4.0786, koruna 24.19432, RUB 108.00, yen 156.57, sing 1.3587, HKD 7.7736, INR 85.82, China 7.3122, peso 20.27, BRL 6.1062, BBDXY 1,300, Dollar Index 109.13, Oil $74.29, 10-year 4.60%, Silver $29.93, Platinum $940.00, Palladium $933.00, Copper $4.18, and Gold…. $2,627.78

That’s it for today…. Winter has come to S. Florida…. I’m not complaining, because it’s still nice outside, just a bit cooler than usual… And it’ll be over in a week….  We had dinner last night with good friends, Jack, Loraine and Gus. Gus’s granddaughter and friend also joined us…. I love when friends get together for food, drink and conversation. I usually don’t say much during dinner, preferring to listen to everyone else’s conversations… I know that’s difficult to imagine, me not saying much, but it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat! HA! The Mizzou Tigers didn’t start their conference schedule on the right foot, losing to Auburn…. UGH!  And our Blues lost on Saturday…. So, Friday was good, Saturday not good…. Well, I’ve got to get outside and soak in some Vitamin D, The Great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: Year Of The Cat….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to take prisoners…..
• Chuck’s different slant on The Fed’s rate cuts….

Good Day…. And a Tub Tumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Happy New Year, and welcome to January…. I know it wasn’t much like January weather in the U.S. this past weekend, but as Bob Dylan sang: A hard rain is going to come…. In my humble opinion, I believe the months have gotten out of whack…. And weather we get in January, we used to get in December, and so on… Call me crazy, but it sure appears that way to me! I’m not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV! Or, did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night! Don Mclean greets me this morning with his beautiful rendition of his song: Vincent…

Well…. A lot has happened since I last wrote a letter to you that wasn’t a briefed work…. Let’s do a recap of the dollar, Gold, Silver, and the economic data that has printed…. OK? 

Not that I’m asking for permission here…. So, here goes…. Gold since I left you on December 18th, has gained $41 as it closed on 12/31/2024 at $2,624.60….. Silver hasn’t been so lucky and has lost 46-cents to $28.86…. I’m reminded by something I pointed out a month or so ago about Silver, and that was that the short paper traders didn’t like Silver above $30….  The BBDXY has gone crazy the last two weeks and has gained from 1,289.48 to 1,309.66 on 12/31/2024….    

My good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter sent me an article that talked about why the dollar is so strong right now….   It all stems from the the bond boys… The yield on the 10-year has risen to 4.57%….   Now, this attracts a ton of buyers around the world, but what if they were told why the yield is so high, before buying?  Would they still dive in?  I don’t know, but here’s the skinny as I see it…. A bond salesman calls me on the phone and tells me he can put a 4.55% yielding bond in my account today if I give him the wink and nod…. I then ask him, “Why is the yield on the 10-year rising when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is cutting rates?  He stammers and says something about lack of supply and some other gobbledygook…  And I tell him, well, you failed the test, brother!  You don’t know why, or you won’t tell me the truth….  So, I proceed to tell him that the bond boys have taken back the reigns on the bond market, and they believe that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is leading us to Armageddon, and other bad things… So, you can keep your bond Mr….  and I hung up….

Circling the wagons back to the dollar…. The dollar saw a 7.98% gain in 2024… But that was derived from the rally that the dollar put on starting on 10/1 when it was 1,225….  And was down about 3% on the year at that point…. In short…. Since the election of the new POTUS…. The so-called Trump rally for the dollar has been real…. And a real pain in the rear for yours truly…. Because the economics are not good in the economy, and the Fed Heads will be cutting rates again this spring…. 

I got to thinking about the Fed Heads’ rate cuts so far, and I thought to myself…. These are strange given that their inflation target is not even close to being met, so could there be another reason for the Fed Heads to cut rates?  Well, think about this one, that my tiny brain came up with…. The Fed Heads think that they went too far with rate hikes, and had to correct that!   Now, that makes much more sense than the thought that they cut rates because inflation was under control…. We all know that’s now true….  According to John Williams over at www.shadowstat.com consumer inflation is running around 8%….   Not that the Fed Heads even know who John Williams is or what he does!    But you get my point here…. Right? 

OK, in the markets yesterday….  There was little to no movement in anything, as it was the New Year’s Day Holiday around the world.  That’s why I started today’s letter with a dissertation or two…. 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, before I retired last night, I checked the screen, and the BBDXY was down 2 index points, so it appeared to me that the dollar would start out the new year, on a down note… But that all changed in the dark of night, and the BBDXY is up 1 index point to start the day, week, month, year….  What else is new? The dollar is up?  Good thing I was gone for a while, otherwise I would have sounded like a broken record every day, saying the dollar is up again today….  

The price of Gold is up to start the day, week, month and year today, $15…. And Silver is up too, which hasn’t been the case many times recently… Silver has gained 54-cents this morning, so that’s a good way to start a year! And with the new trend of Global Central Banks cutting rates again, and the Fed Heads joining in, Gold & Silver should have nothing but green lights all the way downtown!   I believe that 2025 will be another good year for the metals, with or without the short paper traders making things interesting….   

I read in Ed Steer’s letter last week that the number of short contracts in Silver increased an eye watering amount, so I’ll let Ed tell you about this in his own words: “The latest short report was posted on The Wall Street Journal’s website very early on Tuesday evening EST — and it was a shocker as you already know. The short position in SLV rose from 20.06 million shares, up to 50.79 million shares sold short…an increase of an eye-watering 146.55%.  This amount represents 22.5 days of world silver production. The short position in GLD jumped up a bunch as well…from 10.94 million shares sold short, up to 16.21 million shares sold shorts…an increase of 48.18%.”

Chuck again…. How on earth can the regulators allow that to happen? The Silver hasn’t even been mined yet and taken out of the ground, and it’s getting shorted?  Give me a break!  Oh well, you can find Ed at : www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Well, the kindling over in the Middle East is still waiting for a match, to light it, and while we wait, the price of Oil gains because of the thought of a disruption in delivery because of a war…. The price of Oil trades with a $72 handle this morning…. And the 10-year’s yield saw a little buying overnight (The Fed?) and the yield slipped to 4.54%… 

Well, it’s a new year…. What’s i store for us?  To that end, I think that what we’ll see this year, will equal no other year for its nastiness…. Got Gold?   Speaking of Gold, I read, yet another article written by a Gold Analyst, who thinks that the suppression of Commodities will end soon….  I’ve come across so many of these this past year, and each time, I get my hopes up, only to be left at the altar, all by myself…. So, I’ve taken the stance that when I read these that I just repeat…. “I’m from Missouri, you’ll have to show me!” 

Of course I could be wrong, and 2025 turns out to be the best year yet!  Hmmm….  Nah, I’m not switching thoughts here in the middle of the stream….  I’ve been a bear in sheep’s clothing for so long, that it’s difficult to change now… 

So, while I was gone the Bank of Japan left the markets very disappointed on 12/19, when they left their internal interest rate unchanged…. And just like I said it would do if they BOJ left rates unchanged, the yen got sold…. And with the dollar on the warpath, it was not a good time to be yen….  The BOJ failed to give the markets a bone too! They, the BOJ, didn’t give any forecast for the future of interest rates in Japan….  So… Way to go BOJ!  You’ve really slayed them this time! Yes was 157 yesterday….  not that you care about the currency, right?  

The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, has seen better days… With the dollar kicking tail and taking names later these days, the euro has fallen to a 103 handle…. And then mix in the dovishness of the European Central Bank or (ECB ) and you’ve got the recipe for a weak euro…. 

And the Aussie dollar (A$) has been quite resilient with all this U.S. dollar strength going on…  This from Reuters: “The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) after the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from China was released on Thursday. As close trade partners, any fluctuations in China’s economy tend to impact Australian markets.”  

Chuck again… So…. The A$ has been, Not great, but not as bad as the other currencies…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has little to no real economic data and will end the week with the December Jobs Jamboree…. We’ll get to see how the BLS pumps up the number of jobs created to make them look good…  One that thinks logically, like me, would think that the BLS would have stopped with their shenanigans after having to do a mea culpa last summer admitting that they had overstated more than 800,000 jobs in 2024…. But noooooooo! They haven’t done a thing to change their methods that reek of hedonic adjustments… 

To recap…. Yesterday was a holiday, so no movements around the world…. While Chuck was gone Gold us up, Silver was down, The price of Oil was up, and the 10-year’s yield was up…. But nothing was up compared to the dollar! The dollar has gone viral, not technically, don’t get me wrong there…. Chuck chastises the BOJ, and hands out an atta-boy to the A$…. 

For What It’s Worth….Well, this article came to me from the good folks at GATA, who had pulled it from another site, and it’s about the war drums beating and that has Gold pushing higher, and it can be found here: ‘It’s a sign of impending wars’: Why a tense world is betting on gold – POLITICO

Or, here is your snippet: “Amid rising uncertainty and fading trust in the global order, central banks are scrambling to stock up on an old but trusty asset — and speculators are joining them for the ride.

The days of navigating treacherous paths through the Rocky Mountains in search of a rich vein of the glittery good stuff might be over. But gold rushes still occur — and we’re in one right now.

As war, ideology and protectionism divide the world into distinct blocs, developing countries in particular are hoarding bullion to prepare for the day when a global financial system dominated by the U.S. and Europe collapses, and a new one can take its place.

That secular trend, which began a decade ago, has been turbocharged this year by more short-term factors, particularly the downward turn in world interest rates. As a result, prices have marched from one record high to another, closing above $2,800 an ounce for the first time ever last week. This year alone, gold is up 35 percent, well ahead of the 20 percent rise in U.S. stocks and more than double what any European stock index can boast.  Goldman Sachs’s Lina Thomas sees it breaching $3,000 by the end of next year.

At the heart of the rally are central banks, particularly those who either are — or fear they could be in the future —on the receiving end of U.S. sanctions. China has bought 316 tons since the start of the Ukraine war. Russia has also been a big buyer, as have central banks in the Middle East, Central Asia and India.

More recently, buying has been dominated by two countries whose histories and recent experiences have sensitized them to geopolitical risk: Poland and Hungary. Poland has long wanted to boost gold to 20 percent of its official reserves, but the National Bank of Hungary resumed purchases for the first time in three years in September, saying: “Amid increasing uncertainty … the role of gold as a safe-haven asset and a store of value is of particular importance, as it enhances confidence in the country and supports financial stability.”

Other officials put it more bluntly.

“It’s a sign of impending wars,” lamented one European central banker, granted anonymity to indulge a brief lapse into alarmism.”

Chuck again…. I sure hope everyone talking about a war is wrong…. 

Market Prices 1/2/2025: American Style: A$.6214, kiwi .5612, C$ .6930, euro 1.0328, sterling 1.2447,  Swiss $1.1018, European Style: rand 18.7306, krone 11.3866, SEK 11.0717, forint 398.44, zloty 4.1267, koruna 24.3781, RUB 111.15, yen 157.19, sing 1.3650, HKD 7.7772, INR 85.75, China 7.2994, peso 20.71, BRL 6.1736,  BBDXY 1,310.76, Dollar Index 108.09, Oil $72.73, 10-year 4.54%, Silver $29.40, Platinum $918.00, Palladium $913.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold…. $2,641.67

That’s it for today… Well, I came back, just like I said I would…. There were some bets being made at Christmas about whether I would or not…. The sun just rose out of the ocean, simply beautiful….  Christmas at the house was great! All the kids, all the grandkids, and relatives…. And New Year’s Eve was as quiet as a church mouse as it was just me and Kathy…. The house was so loud with conversations on Christmas, and then the exact opposite for NYE….  Oh well, we’re old, and the days of going out and celebrating are in our past, I guess….  Kathy celebrated her birthday on Dec. 26…. No big celebration there either, it was all hangover from Christmas…. The infusions of the two new immunotherapy drugs last Thursday, had me not feeling good that day, but bounced back the next day, so if that’s the pattern, I’ll take it! Carol King takes us to the finish line today with her song: So Far Away…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and have been being Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you! This is not a regular Pfennig today, just the update on my visit to MD Anderson Cancer Clinic last week….  But first, I want to mention that on New Year’s Eve, Dec. 31st, it will mark 50 years since we, you and me, have been able to own physical Gold legally….  Here are the good folks at GATA: 

“Fifty years ago, President Gerald R. Ford legalized private gold ownership, allowing Americans once again to stack the regal metal as a wealth-preserving asset and safe haven against monetary inflation and dollar depreciation. Gold futures trading and market meddling also began in the United States a half-century ago.

So, we can rejoice in that anniversary, eh? 

Well, the trip to Houston didn’t work out too well…. The oncologist there, the one that saved my jaw from the surgeon 14 years ago, told me that he had no new chemo for me, and that there were no new chemos on the horizon…. 

He did mention a trial that he could enter me into if my kidney numbers got better….  So, I came home and went to my oncologist here, and told her about the trial, and she said, “I can do that for you right here”… So, I said, when can we start? We started the day after Christmas with my first infusion of two immunotherapy drugs…  Infusion confusion hit me immediately after coming back home from the infusions…. But, I was fine in the end…

OK, this is a shot in the dark…. We have no idea if this trial will work, but for my part, I’m 100% all-in on it…. So, in my mind, it will work, and soon I will be able to eat right again…. 

I’ll have to return to St. louis every 3 weeks for the infusions… So, there will be lots of Pfennigs missing in the future, just so you know…

That’s all I know from Lake Woebegone….

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And Merry Christmas to one and all! And if you don’t celebrate Christmas, please give me some slack today…. I’m like a kid at Christmas, always have been, and hope to always remain!  here is my annual Christmas Pfennig… I doubt that you’ll find it as good as previous years….  I hope you have a very Blessed Chrismas!

T’was the night before Christmas And all through the house

There was no one else Just me and my spouse…. 

Kathy is her name, And I love her 

The same as I did 47 years ago! 

I’m writing the Pfennig And trying to decide

If 2025 will be better For Gold to go on a ride?

The dollar is strong as an OX But Chuck is certain that

The dollar’s time for shorting Will come, as sly as a fox!

I’ll be surrounded by my kids And grandkids this Christmas

And for each of them I have a gift I hope they will like the gift

I’ve given them… 

But I have other gifts to give out

For Frank Trotter…. A new bank! For Alex & Grace… A happy life together!

For Andrew… A State Championship! For Rachel… The ability to live with 

A State Champion! 

For Dawn… A class of Einsteins! 

And there’s more! 

But I don’t want to bore you

So, I’ll move on…

The stockings are hung by the chimney with care

With hopes that St. Nick will soon be there…

2024 has been a challenging year for your writer

And 2025 doesn’t appear to be any lighter…. 

But he lives by the words of the great Jimmy V.

I won’t give up, never give up! 

But this isn’t a downer letter

C’Mon Chuck, you can do better! And  I will!

The currencies have been rotten

But Gold Cant be forgotten Throw in some Silver

Platinum, Palladium or Copper And you’ve got a real topper!

I have nothing else to share it’s time to go… 

But before I leave

I’m dreaming of a bed of snow The fireplace roaring

And family all around…. It’s doesn’t get much better than that!

So, as Chuck picks up his bag of gifts And heads out the door

You can hear him exclaim…. Merry Christmas To All, 

And to All a Good Night! 

• the dollar continues to gain VS all currencies
• the BLS is up to their old tricks again!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to one and all!  Well, tomorrow I finally go to Houston, to MD Anderson Cancer Clinic…. Bright and early my plane leaves, so no Pfennig tomorrow. And so that leaves today’s letter the last of this week… And I start my annual Christmas vacation after tomorrow’s letter… So, you won’t be having me complain to you about the dollar being strong, or the dolts in Congress and the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel until January 2025…. Miss me already? HA!  Vince Guaraldi greets me this morning with his version of the song: What Child Is This?

The dollar bugs backed off yesterday, and the BBDXY remained trading 1,289…. And that’s where it closed yesterday.. But, at that level, the euro remained below the 1.05 figure and the rest of the currencies…. Well, you know the story there…. Today is a FOMC Day, and the FOMC will announce that they have cut the Fed Funds rate 25 Basis Points….  I have no crystal ball here, just my thoughts and the strong data yesterday isn’t going to sway their minds to not cut, in my humble opinion…. The stock jockeys will get a reprieve from their recent weakness in stocks, and the bond boys will mostl likely not be influenced by the rate cut…. 

Gold saw its early morning gain of $10 get whittled down to a gain of $5, and it closed yesterday at $2,647.70… Silver was down just 2 pennies yesterday and closed at $30.58…. I would think that a rate cut announcement today would get the metals out of the rut they’ve been in since last Thursday…. Of course, they were kicked into the rut by the short paper traders…. Maybe the thought of what Gold would do with a rate cut, is the reason the short paper traders decided to take a pound of flesh from Gold & Silver?  Only the Shadow Knows,,,,

The price of Oil climbed back above the $70 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buyers and the yield fell to 4.40%

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar bumped higher once again in the overnight markets with the BBDXY gaining 1 index point to 1,290…. This ahead of the coming rate cut?  I’m telling you now, so maybe you’ll listen to me later, all this dollar buying is like a salmon swimming against the current…. It’s not going to end well, but then that’s just me…. Gold is down to start the day today $11… And Silver is down 33-cents… All of this doesn’t make any logical sense to me, but then I’m not the sharpest tool in the toolbox,… But I am smarter than the average Bear!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle overnight, and the 10-year starts the day with a 4.40% yield… I have something for you on the 10-year in the FWIW section today… So, hold your horses, take your time getting there, for there’s more to read before you get to the FWIW section….. 

Well, it appears that all my claims that the BLS’s jobs reports are shams, were first supported by the admission this past summer that 818,000 jobs had been added in error by the BLS… The Philadelphia Fed report told us this would happen and then it did!   the Philadelphia Fed confirms – again – that I was right all along. And you would think that the BLS would stop with their shenanigans, but when the “boss” says make them look good, they do it….  

So far in the 2nd half of the year, the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark estimates showed that instead of the 1.1% gain shown initially by the BLS, payroll jobs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia were actually down 0.1%!   The labor picture in this country is NOT as good as the Gov’t would have you believe…. I’m just so glad that someone besides me is pointing out the BLS’s sham! 

The U.S. Gov’t directs the BLS here… And they’re wanting to show that the labor market is strong under their watch and then allow the BLS to gradually revise the numbers under the next Gov’t’s watch…. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it….  Just like my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! Yeah, that’s the ticket! 

OK, yesterday was our annual “shopping trip” for the guys…. We had a blast, and at the end of the day, it was like a day on the Butler Patio, with me holding court and explaining all sorts of things about the economy, tariffs, and Treasuries, to my good friends, Carl and Denny…. Everyone made it home safely, and so it was another successful shopping trip!  

The Bank of Japan will meet today, tomorrow for them….  This is where the question runs deep with the markets, but with me, it’s plain and simple. The Bank of Japan will disappoint the markets again and leave rates unchanged,,, I’ll be a monkey’s uncle if they decide to hike rates….   I’m just saying….

I found this on www.moneymetals.com….. “When the Big Mac index was introduced in 1986, the average cost of a Big Mac — according to the classic jingle, “two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun” — was around $1.60. 

When the jingle debuted, 8n 1974, the cost was around 65 cents. You could pay for it with a single dollar bill and expect change. Today, that price has risen to $5.69. The purchasing power of your dollar, according to burgernomics, has fallen 90 percent in the past 50 years “

I remember when the Economist magazine would make a BIG DEAL out of the BIG Mac Index results…. And we used to use this index as an indicator of dollar strength or weakness… That was back in my days at Mark Twain Bank!  Through the years, the significance of this index has diminished but not with me! 

I have to ask this question: Got Gold?

Well, I really wanted to make today’s letter special, given that it will be the last one until the new year…. But since today is all about the FOMC meeting and I’ve been that horse enough this week, (don’t worry no horses were harmed)  So, I guess, I’ll just head to the Big Finish and start my vacation! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Nov. Retail Sales were stronger than Superman with a .7% increase…. I knew that the report would be quite strong, and it was!  Industrial Production disappointed by not meeting expectations and only gaining .1% in Nov. And Capacity utilization dropped from 77.1% to 76.8%… But even the disappointng reports, couldn’t offset the euphoria of the strong Retail Salesl  Oh, and I almost forgot… When you take Auto Sales out of Retail Sales, they only grew .2%…..   Hmmmm…..

Todays Data Cupboard has some housing starts data, and of course the FOMC rate announcement this afternoon…. 

To recap…. The dollar continues to be strong, with no sign of weakness on the horizon, that is unless you think like Chuck and think that rates cuts are debasements of a currency, and that currency shouldn’t gain after a rate cut! Gold & Silver didn’t have bad days yesterday, but they didn’t have good days either!  The BLS is up to their old tricks again, and The Big Mac Index shows a 90% purchasing power loss for the dollar in the past 50 years!

For What It’s Worth… This article is one that I think will scare the daylights out of you….  Well, maybe not, as you’re a tough hombre…. This is Pam and Russ Martens with their usual good reporting and this time they highlight something that I’ve been talking about….. The 10-year’s yield…. And it can be found here: The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year Treasury to Spike to 6 Percent

Or, here’s your snippet: “Arif Husain is the head of Global Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee. Husain holds a B.Sc. (honors) in banking and international finance from the City University London, Cass Business School. When Husain speaks, Wall Street listens.

What Husain has been saying since October is that the U.S. is on a collision course with higher interest rates.

In October, Husain released his interest rate outlook for the next six months, writing the following about the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, whose yield impacts mortgage rates and a wide swath of debt instruments:

“I think that the 10-year Treasury yield will test the 5.0% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve. There are three dynamics at play: 1. Fed rate cuts could limit yield increases on short-maturity Treasury bills. 2. Ongoing issuance by the Treasury to fund the government’s deficit spending is flooding the market with new supply. 3. The Fed’s quantitative tightening has taken a large, reliable buyer of Treasuries out of the market, further skewing the balance of supply and demand in favor of higher yields.”

Husain’s analysis in October had yet to factor in the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Now that there is no longer any doubt that President-elect Donald Trump and his promised tariffs and tax cuts must be factored into any interest rate forecast, Husain had this to say on a November 22 Global Market Webinar at T. Rowe Price when queried by his colleague, Investment Specialist Ritu Vohora…”

Chuck again… Of course that would be happening right now, if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel wasn’t doing their “yield curve control”…  You now where they buy the yield curve to keep yields from exploding to the upside…. 

Market Prices 12/18/2024: American Style: A$ .6315, kiwi .5726, C$ .6982, euro 1.0467, sterling 1.2700, Swiss $1.1198, European Style; rand 18.0665, krone 11.2294, SEK 10.9610, forint 393.32, zloty 4.0651, koruna 23.9654, RUB 104.50, yen 153.86, sing 1.2517, HKD 7.7711, INR 84.95, China 7.2866, peso 20.12, BRL 6.1669, BBDXY 1,290, Dollar Index 107.20, Oil $70.57, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $30.26, Platinum $930.00, Palladium $928.00, Copper $4.16, and Gold…. $2,636.71

That’s it for today, and the next 2 weeks Sorry it seems so long, but with Christmas and New Year in there it stretches it out… I thought our Blues had turned a corner Monday night with a 3-2 victory over the Rangers, but then last night they laid an egg, and lost to the Devils….. UGH! Longtime readers know that I like to pen a Christmas Pfennig, so you haven’t heard the last from me yet! I’m so upset with a place that I had purchased some gifts from, They haven’t been delivered as yet, and it’s darn near impossible to get help from their website….    I sure hope they get here in time, as they were gifts for my girls…. If the doctors at MD Anderson come up with a solution for me, I’ll send out a quick note letting those of you who want to know, know…..  Fingers crossed!  The guys had so much fun yesterday, we laughed a lot and shared some stories, some true, some not so true (right, pack of lies?)  And Thanks to Mike who was our driver!  Vince Guaraldi takes us to the finish line with his version of the song: Christmas Time Is Here…..  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!  I also hope that everyone who celebrates Christmas has a very Blessed Christmas, and you will be surrounde by loved ones…. 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to be quite strong….
• Retail Sales should be strong today….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, front and center this morning, I have to apologize for the typo yesterday when reporting where Gold closed last Friday. My darn fat fingers rise up again! I guess I shouldn’t be so harsh on them… At least they are not bony! I tested that theory years ago, that went like this: If you work, you’re fingers to the bone, you get bony fingers…. I worked for hours upon hours, and my fingers remained fat! It’s unseasonably not so cold here this week, so I’ll get outside a bit more… This weekend though the temps get back to normal according to the weather people….  I’m starting to get geared up for my trip to Houston this week…. I’m wishin’ and hopin’ and prayin’ they have a solution to my problem….  John Denver greets me this morning with his version of the song: O Holy Night…. 

Well, the dollar gave back its 1 index point gain it had yesterday morning, during the day yesterday… The euro rallied back over the 1.05 figure, but the rest of the currencies were confined to their respective sick beds, and will have to remain there, probably through the end of the year…. You see, the dollar bugs have run up the price of the dollar and will keep there through Year-end, so that that their year-end bonuses reflect the return on the dollar this year. That’s all I have to say about that!  It will be interesting to see where the dollar goes after we turn the calendar to 2025…. I still contend that the dollar has too many skeletons in its closet, and that they will all be exposed to the dollar bugs when the calendar changes years….  

I read on Bloomberg last night that Hedge Funds and Asset Managers are warming to the appeal of the dollar now….  Well, that remains to be seen if they begin to buy, but I thought the info was interesting… 

Gold, which was up $14 in the early trading, gave back some of that gain during the day, but ended up $5 to close at $2,653.40 (no worries I double checked!) And Silver gave back its 7-cents gain yesterday to finish the day flat as a pancake (Head East) and close at $30.60… 

I found this on Kitco.com this morning: “In her 2025 precious metals outlook, Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, said she expects gold to trade within a fairly wide range between $2,500 and $3,200 an ounce, with the precious metal’s fate largely determined by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, MKS forecasts gold prices to average $2,750 an ounce for the year, up 14% from this year’s current annual average.”

Chuck again… Now that’s some wide range of prices, isn’t it? But in the end, she believes that Gold will average $2,750 an ounce, so that’s not too shabby….

The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle yesterday…. And the 10-year added back the 3 basis points it lost the night before and closed the day trading with a 4.40% yield…. 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, once again, the overnight markets bought the dollar and the BBDXY gained back the 1 index point, to send the euro back below the 1.05 figure. I just don’t get it….  But, it is, what it is…. And I carry on despite the looniness of these dollar bugs….. Gold has seen some selling this morning, in the early trading… I read where Gold traders are squaring up their books ahead of the FOMCE meeting tomorrow…. Whatever!  Gold is down $10 to start the day, and Silver is down 21-cents.  C’mon Gold & Silver, make it a turn-around Tuesday! 

The price of Oil slipped just below the $70 handle overnight and starts today at $69.97…. And the 10-year Treasury’s yield bounced higher again overnight and starts today at 4.43%  I told you yesterday, that I believe the 10-year’s yield will go higher…. So…. There’s that!

Well, this news is disheartening, but not surprising to me….  It appears that the Chinese will do something that will make their exports even more attractive… According to Reuters, Beijing policymakers are mulling letting the yuan depreciate, possibly to around 7.5 per dollar, in response to the threat of a trade war with the U.S. That should do the trick! And you can blame the POTUS’s plan to charge China large tariffs…  An eye for an eye, eh?   Recall that past Presidents banged on China to get their currency stronger to give the U.S. a fighting chance with exports to China and their exports to us…. But this devaluation, if it comes to fruition, will erase all the gains the renminbi has made through the years…. 

And once again we have the media using the easy form of the Chinese currency, while Chuck uses the official name of the Chinese currency…. Yuan VS renminbi….   Sort of like here in the U.S. we say the buck sometimes, when referring to the dollar….  Just a reminder to you al that the media will always use the easier form of the Chinese currency, because it’s easier to say and write! 

Here’s some news that should brighten your day….  this is on kitco.com so go find it there to see the video of how it all works, but here’s the gist: “This realization has sparked much interest in alternatives to the current fiat system. “People are buying into Bitcoin and gold. Also, the level of interest in Goldback has exploded over the last few years.”

Goldback solves a 2,600-year-old problem in that gold can be spent in small, interchangeable increments, Cordon pointed out, as he shared the details behind the company’s Florida launch.

It is a functional, sound money option that allows individuals, for the first time, to spend physical gold on small items like a smoothie or large purchases like a home remodel. “We’re trying to skip the step where you sell your gold and go back into dollars,” Cordon said. “We want people to keep their gold and just circulate the gold itself.”

Cordon sees the trend toward gold as a long-term phenomenon. “This has been a trend for gold for 50 years,” he said. “The dollar’s lost over 99 percent of its value during that time.”

Goldback’s popularity has been growing exponentially. The company has introduced over a million first-time users to gold through its products.”

Chuck again…  I’ve often been asked what will people do when they need to buy a loaf of bread and all they have is Physical Gold?    Well, here’s your answer….  I sure hope it catches on…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Nov. Retail Sales, which should be quite strong, given the rush by consumers to secure their Christmas gifts…. The BHI indicates to me that Retail Sales should be strong…. And that will get the rate hike folks all lathered up…. But to no avail…. The FOMC will cut rates tomorrow, no ifs, ands, or buts…. In addition, we’ll also see the color of Nov. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization prints today… 

To recap…. The dollar continues to be strong and adding to its strength each day….  The FOMC meets tomorrow, to cut rates, no matter what the data says….  China is thinking about a devaluation of their currency to offset the threat of the U.S.’s large tariffs…  I don’t mean to crow here, but didn’t I tell you right from the starter’s blocks that the tariffs would cause global problems?   And a company has launched a product in Florida that helps spread the use of Gold and eliminates the fear of having to break a 1-ounce coin for a loaf of bread…. 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, I think I have most of you thinking like me that the metals especially Gold & Silver have their prices manipulated by short paper traders…. Well, this will clear things up a bit more for you and it can be found here: REPORT: Gold Price Likely Suppressed by Concentrated Shorting, Could Explode

Or, here’s your snippet: “At long last, complaints of gold price manipulation and suppression got some respect this week from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a London-based group connected with central banks.

The group published a long paper heralding gold’s restoration to the center of the world financial system, “Gold and the New World Disorder,” and the paper’s chapter titled “Market Disruption — The Short Squeeze” has this to say about the topic at hand:

“With record demand for gold, much of it from BRICS-related countries, the risks of a squeeze are increasing. This could have several catalysts.

‘Bullion banks’ holding concentrated gold short positions might need to buy back the metal during another price run.

Analysts have long argued that these short positions suggest market manipulation, citing the disproportionate control held by a few entities.

Lawsuits against banks for manipulating the precious metals markets have yielded some success in recent years. During these lawsuits, some former ‘bullion bank’ traders have commented about how these gold market strategies might make the market vulnerable to a short squeeze — either by accident or design.

Academic and other studies provide evidence that ‘shorting gold’ has historically been used to suppress the gold price, often linked to central bank sales and futures contracts on commodity exchanges. 

However, with suspicions rising that some BRICS countries could be considering ‘weaponizing’ gold against the West, financial markets could be in for a bumpy ride.”

Ya think? The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) has been documenting and screaming about this for 25 years. “

Chuck again…. I reported a copy of a communique between then secretary of state Kissinger, and a high-ranking member of Congress a couple of weeks ago….  if you missed class that day, I suggest you check out the archives at www.dailypfennigcom

Market Prices 12/17/2024: American Style: A$.6344, kiwi .5760, C$ .6996, euro 1.0495, sterling 1.2705, Swiss 1.1152, European Style: rand 18.0371, krone 11.2062, SEK 10. 9258, forint 389.95, zloty 4.0611, koruna 23.8786, RUB 102.70, yen 153.84, sing 1.3506, HKD 7.7707, INR 84.90, China 7.2842, peso 20.10, BRL 6.1266, BBDXY 1,289, Dollar Index 106.95, Oil $69.97, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $30.29, Platinum $933.00, Palladium $938.00, Copper $4.14, and Gold…. $2,643.04

That’s it for today, except to give a great big shout out to my former colleague, Jennifer Evens for it’s her birthday today! I first met Jen, as fresh graduate of college, and she was our assistant on the trade desk at Mark Twain Bank World Markets….  I would tell you what year that was, but that would tell her age, and I’m not about to go there!  Happy Birthday, Jen, I hope your day is grand! I tried to watch the NFL game on TV last night, but became quickly bored, and went to my laptop to read stuff…. I have to get all my ducks in a row for my trip to Houston… Like I told you previously, they are treating me as a new patient, even though I had been there several times in the past…. Oh, well, que se ra…. John Denver’s Christmas album takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Away In The Manger…. I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!  

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rallies strongly late last week!
• Another Engineered Takedown of the metals….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  This will be a shortened week for the Pfennig, and there will be no letter on Thursday this week, as I’ve told you all, I’m heading to Houston for the day. Hopefully the folks at MD Anderson Cancer Clinic will have a solution to my problem… Our Saturday here was cold and rainy all day… A complete washout…. UGH! But you have to have those days to really enjoy the sunny ones! The NFL season is winding down, and soon the playoffs will begin… Beegie Adair greets me this morning with her excellent version of the song: A Winter Romance…

The dollar is kicking tail and taking names later these days…. The dollar ended the week at 1,288….  That’s up 8 index points in a week!  The euro has fallen back below 1.05, and the rest of the currencies have all been sent to their respective sick beds and told to remain there!  The Japanese yen has fallen out of bed and is struggling to get back in bed…. It’s all very ugly out there in currency land…. And once again, I’m questioning these dollar bugs motives…. The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will meet on Wednesday this week to cut rates, in my opinion, and that represents a debasing of the dollar, but still there are buyers…. If their reasoning is that the dollar is a safe haven, then they’re dead wrong…. There are so many holes in that reasoning, but the main one is that Gold is the real safe haven, period. 

And the metals haven’t provided any solace to the currencies, as the short paper traders went to town on Thursday and Friday last week, implementing another engineered takedown of Gold & Silver, and the other metals…  Gold ended last week at $2,848, and Silver closed last week at $30.62….  I know, I know, I shouldn’t have talked glowingly about Gold’s $83 rise the first 3 days of trading last week, I jinxed Gold…. Sorry….  I should have noted that the short paper traders are the wolves that are always knocking at the door, and in this case that would have been so correct!    Here’s Ed Steer with his take on the Engineered Takedown: “Once again the collusive commercial shorts of one stripe or another made their overwhelming presence felt in the Globex/COMEX futures market and, as usual, it had nothing to do with what was going on in the dollar index.

They managed to close gold back below its 50-day moving average, but it was done on ‘nothing special volume. They closed silver even further below its 50-day…with only average volume in it as well.”

Chuck again… As aways Ed can be found : www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle into the weekend, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.40% into the weekend….  Didn’t I tell you last week that I thought the 10-year’s yield was going to climb higher?  Well, yes I did, but I’m not slapping myself on the back here, just saying…. 

And what do you think the bond boys are doing with marking rates higher? They are sticking to their conviction that inflation is going nowhere but up and that the Fed Heads can’t see it…. So, they’ve taken matters in their own hands… Just last week, PPI (wholesale inflation was stronger than expected and grew at a .4% pace, which means that consumer price inflation will be heading higher at some point….) 

In the overnight markets last night….  Well, something happened that wasn’t good for the currencies last night…. Before I retired for the night, I checked the currencies, and the dollar was seeing some selling. But when I turned on the computer this morning, the dollar had rallied, for some reason unknown to me, and is back on the rally tracks this morning, with the BBDXY up, 1 index point at 1,289.05.  This is getting out of hand, folks… This dollar buying, and I’m here to tell you that these buyers will all be in tears in the coming weeks…. 

Gold is up this morning in the early trading $14…  And Silver is up just 7-cents to start the day/ week.  I wonder if the good witch Glinda is going to come out today, and tell us it’s all safe now, that the bad short paper traders have gone away….  The short paper traders really made a mess of the metals late last week, and just shows to go you, that the wolf is always at the door…. For now, that is….   I’m going to sound like a broken record here, but the thing about these Engineered takedowns is that historically, the metals have gone back to their underlying rallies once the selling stops, and the metals then go on to set new records on the high side….  So, if you haven’t done this already, back up the truck and load up on some cheaper metals…. They won’t be cheaper for long! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle overnight… And starts the day/ week looking like it wants to go higher…. That’s my humble country boy opinion for what’s it’s worth…  The 10-year Treasury’s yield saw some slippage overnight, but not much and it starts the day/ week with a 4.37% yield… 

I’m sorry, so sorry, I didn’t mean to lead you astray…. That’s not me talking, it’s Janet Yellen….The outgoing Treasury Secretary, apologized for not doing anything about the exploding national debt… A lot of good that does us now, Janet! For the record….  under Yellen, total US debt increased by $6.8 Trillion while she was Fed Chair/vice-Chair and then another $8.4 Trillion while she has been Biden’s Treasury Secretary.  And now that she’s the outgoing Treasury Secretary, she wants people to know that she believes the debt levels need to come down, especially now that interest rates are higher…..   Thanks for nothing Janet…. You won’t be missed…

The European Central Bank (ECB ) lowered interest rates on Thursday, the fourth cut this year amid growing concerns that the region’s economic outlook is darkening. Policymakers reduced the bank’s deposit rate by a quarter point, to 3 percent. And the Swiss National Bank (SNB )cut their internal rate from 1.0% to 0.5%, the lowest since November 2022. And this was the largest rate cut in 10-years for the SNB…. 

Are we heading to zero interest rates or even negative rates once again?  It sure appears to me that this is where we’re heading, and it will filter over to the U.S. eventually…. YIKES!  At least inflation in Switzerland had actually fallen below their target rate before they cut rates…. Not like our beloved Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… NOT! 

Speaking of Central Bank meetings…. This week we will have the FOMC meeting on the 18th, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on the 19th….  Along with the Bank of England. on the 19th… Inflation showed an uptick in both the U.S. and Japan at last reading, and that has had an effect on both currencies… The dollar as I mentioned above is getting bought by the dollar bugs that think the FOMC will paus at this meeting…. I say they are barking up the wrong tree….   The Japanese yen got sold last week when a rate hike by the BOJ looked to be dire straits… But now, we have those thinking that the BOJ will have to hike rates to combat the rising inflation….  I’m sticking to my guns here and saying that the BOJ will not hike this week, as they have shown a willingness to disappoint in the past, and I’m sure they will continue that willingness to disappoint now… 

And the Bank of England (BOE ) is reeling from recent reports that their GDP dropped, and inflation is sticky… So, I doubt they will do anything with rates, but then, they could be seen to cut given the slow pace of the economy…. 

Circling the wagons here, regarding the European Union…. German exports fell more than expected in October, an indication that the long-awaited recovery in external demand has been delayed. Exports fell by 2.8% compared with the previous month, data from the federal statistics office showed. Germany is the EU’s largest economy, and the driver of the economy as a whole…  A very large portion of their exports go to the other European Countries, so, it appears that they haven’t begun to turn around yet…. The euro took one on the chin after the rate cut and then this news from Germany… 

Recall that I told you that the new POTUS’s tariffs could lead to a global depression as other countries will balk at exporting to the U.S. because of the tariffs, and that could lead to disaster.? Well, here’s a follow up on that thought from CBS.com news, “Canada could halt oil and gas imports to the U.S. if Donald Trump imposes steep new tariffs, Ontario Premier Doug Ford warns.”

Saber rattling on tariffs…. China has come out and warned about stopping their exports to the U.S. Now Canada has done so, all we need now is Mexico to announce that they are thinking of stopping their exports to the U.S.  Well, this is one that I would welcome, and Mexico’s biggest export is all the undocumented aliens to the U.S…. I’m just saying…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week will be chock-full-o-data, and that’s a good thing!  But it doesn’t get really started until tomorrow, when we’ll see the color of the Nov. Retail Sales, which the BHI indicates to me that this should be a good strong print, with all the Christmas sales included…  There are a plethora of more data prints this week, so like I say below, strap yourself in, of this ride…. 

To recap… The dollar continues to get bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair! The SNB cut 50 Basis points, The Bank of Canada cut 25 Basis points as did the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. So, rate cuts all around….  I’m not liking what I’m seeing here… But then the FOMC meets on Wednesday this week and will also cut 25 Basis Points, so what else to expect?  Janet Yellen tells us she’s sorry…. Sorry for allowing over $15 Trillion in debt during her time in Gov. And now she wants to do something about the unsustainable debt…  her words not mine! Will the Bank of Japan disappoint us once again this week, when they meet?   Chuck, believes they will, and so the yen gets sold…. 

For What It’s Worth….  I found this article on Bloomberg.com yesterday, and thought, this is very FWIW worthy… It speaks of Gen Xer’s not being able to retire, as it hasn’t quite worked out for them as it did baby boomers, and it can be found here: Can I Afford to Retire? Gen X Trails Baby Boomers, Millennials in 401(k) Savings – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the oldest members of Gen X near age 60, they’re serving as a stark reminder of economic fault lines in America, and the financial pessimism that’s taking hold in some corners of the economy as key pillars of the American Dream feel increasingly out of reach for many.

The cohort, which swung hard for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, is facing financial pressure on multiple fronts. They’re taking care of parents and their own children, including adult ones. They’re grappling with higher costs for college tuition, cars, groceries and housing. They’re struggling to save. And as they get closer to retirement age, they’re worried about healthcare costs, and how long their bodies will hold up in the workforce, according to a recent survey conducted for Bloomberg News by the Harris Poll.

Only 43% of Gen X respondents said they can afford to retire at age 65, and for those without a 401(k), 26% said they don’t expect to retire at all. To make matters worse, there’s little confidence that Social Security will backstop their lifestyles once they leave the workforce — a full 76% said politicians have no idea how to fix Social Security.

“Generation X is without a doubt the most stressed-out generation about retirement,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research for PGIM DC Solutions. “The way we plan for retirement is structurally changing, with more personal responsibility, and Gen X was the first generation to have to deal with that on their own.”

Across the US, there’s a shortfall in retirement savings of about $6.5 trillion, according to estimates from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. That’s the aggregate amount by which working families may fall short of the income they’ll need to retire comfortably. At the same time, major cuts to Social Security benefits are on the horizon in the next decade if the program is not reformed, throwing into question a key pillar of the social contract in the US.”

Chuck again….   I know of one Gen Xer, who has already retired, and is way beyond having the problems that these other Gen Xers are having…. The status of people in the U.S. is suffering greatly…   I’m just saying….

Market Prices 12/16/2014: American Style: A$.6359, kiwi .5773, C$ .7018, euro 1.0499, sterling 1.2687, Swiss $1.1199, European Style: rand 17.8794, krone 11.1611, SEK 10.9109, forint 389.49, zloty 4.0809, koruna 23.8456, RUB 103.26, yen 155.08, sing 13500, HKD 7.7754, INR 84.87, China 7.2836, peso 20.15, BRL 6.0380, BBDXY 1,289, Dollar Index 106.63, Oil $70.73, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $30.69, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $961.00, Copper $4.18, and Gold.. $2,662.33

That’s it for today…. Lots going on this week, so strap yourself in, and keep all arms and legs inside the vehicle during the ride!  Our Blues keep having to play these road games, they are becoming road warriors!  I guess that means eventually the home games will catch up. It seems like my beloved Cardinals are just sitting on their duffs, doing nothing this offseason, while the rest of the division makes moves to improve their teams… I shake my head in disbelief at the road this organization is going down right now…. They are playing a game of Catch-22… They aren’t doing anything to improve their team, which leads to lower attendance, which the organization says they need high attendance to give them ability to improve the team….  Yesterday was my younger sister Terri’s Birthday…. I hope she had a grand day! I am the oldest in the family, now that my two older sisters have passed… And I should have been long gone 10 years ago!  But…. I’m still here! YAHOO!   Beegie Adair takes us to the finish line today with her version of the song: Mistletoe and the Holly… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to get bought… And Chuck is at wit’s end!
• Pricing food and energy….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I didn’t do much yesterday… Did the pumps on my legs, which take 1.5 hours to complete, ate lunch, read some of my Judy Shelton book, fell asleep, and the day was over! I hope to accomplish a bit more today! No games on TV last night, unless you’re into the NBA, of which I have only a passing interest… No complaining about the tardiness of the letter today, as I was up at zero dark thirty this morning with nerve pain in my foot and bleeding in my mouth…. What a joyous way to start a day!  Mindi Abair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Happy Christmas…. 

The dollar continued to get bought yesterday… It’s up 3 index points this week in the BBDXY, and for a brief time yesterday, the euro fell below 1.05, only to recover by day’s end… The markets still believe that the Fed Heads will cut rates next week, as I said yesterday, so do I….  So, if the dollar is going to be debased again, why then are people buying the dollar?  The real safe haven is Gold, folks, not the dollar…. I’m just saying…

The price of Gold continued its recovery yesterday and gained $21 more dollars… That’s a total of $83 of gain in 3 days of trading this week! And when I checked it last night, it was up again… Silver lost 7-cents yesterday…. The short paper traders didn’t like it that Silver had crossed $32 yesterday, and so they took it back below that figure. 

The price of Oil bumped higher again and ended the day trading with a $70 handle… Syria, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, and so on, are powder kegs waiting for a light… And if any of them do light up, the price of Oil should react favorably… Disruption of Oil deliveries would be the thing that’s on Oil traders’ minds…. 

And the 10-year Treasury is back to 4.27%, as it closed yesterday afternoon… So, the scenario I laid out for you has come to fruition… I truly expect to see the yield go higher, even if the Fed Heads cut rates next week! 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying continued overnight, with the BBDXY gaining another index point to start today at 1,284…. I’ve said my piece on dollar buying, so I won’t bore you with more of that now…. Gold & Silver are seeing some profit taking, it appears this morning in the early trading, with Gold down $9 and Silver down 14-cents… Both of those can be turned around easily, if they see enough physical buying!  The price of Oil remained trading with a $70 handle overnight, while the 10-year Treasury added another basis point to its yield to start today at 4.28%…

Well, don’t look know, ok, go head, I can’t stop you! But Japanese yen is back to getting sold, and has lost some ground this week, after a report from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that they saw no costs to waiting to hike rates… Well, that statement was akin to throwing yen under the bus, and last week’s euphoria that the BOJ was about to hike rates, was thrown out the window….  Isn’t that just like the BOJ to disappoint the markets, and economists? They have done that repeatedly for the last 20 years… So, why change now?  I shake my head at how disappointing the BOJ has benn, is, and will be in the future!  

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this that was on YAHOO.com… “Half (50%) of people have recently been somewhere that did not accept cash or discouraged its use, a survey has found.”  

Chuck again… I’m glad it wasn’t me that visited one of these places that didn’t use cash… I would have argued with them that they have to accept my cash, or I won’t buy their goods…  

Bloomberg.com had this item this morning…. “The central bank accelerated the pace of interest-rate hikes to 100 basis points from 50 basis points on Wednesday, in an expected and unanimous decision that took the benchmark Selic rate to 12.25%.”

Chuck again… Whoa there Partner! I was unaware that the Brazilian Central Bank was meeting this week! And to hear they hiked rates 100 Basis Points, is shock and awe, folks!  Well, the Brazilian real immediately responded to this news gaining ground it had recently lost…. 

The Bank of Canada did indeed cut rates yesterday, as I thought they would, but the size of their rate cut was a surprise as it was 50 Basis Points (1/2%) and not 25 Basis Points….  You know, when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel cut rates 50 Basis Points in September, I took it as a “We’re in trouble rate cut”, and the same should be said for Candada, although most pundits took it as a “let’s get the economy going” rate cut yesterday, so, as usual, I’m out on the limb all by myself…. 

I found this on MarketWatch.com : “After barely rising in the first eight months of the year, grocery prices have shot up over the past three months. Blame beef.

Beef prices have risen rapidly since the summer due to a confluence of factors: Drought, high interest rates and high prices of grain to feed cattle.

Drought has reduced herd sizes in some cases and ranchers have also culled their cattle because of high feed prices. The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since the 1950s.

Grocery shoppers are still willing to paying the price, it seems. Demand hasn’t fallen much at all.

It’s costing them, though.

Even a pound of regular ground beef is expensive: The price surged to a record $5.67 in September, compared to $3.80 shortly before the pandemic in 2020.”

Chuck again…  And the knuckleheads want to remove food and energy from the CPI calculation?   Sure they do, why not? The Calculation is already beset with hedonic adjustments, might as well remove food and energy! 

And before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to tell you about something that my sponsor, Battle Bank, is working on, so here’s Frank Trotter: “Battle Financial, Inc. has re-opened the Convertible Note offering for accredited investors.  Please visit battlebank.com/invest to learn more and obtain the offering documents if you qualify and are interested.”

Chuck again… I’m sure you’re interested! I sure am! He also offered me his wish that next Thursday is an A+ day trip for me…. Frank has always been a big supporter of Chuck, and for that I thank him! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Nov. PPI, (wholesale inflation) which is expected to grow .2%… Last month’s report showed PPI had grown faster than expected, so maybe that’s what’s up PPI’s sleeve today too! 

To recap… The dollar continues to get bought, and is up 3 index points in the BBDXY this week…. Even with the STUPID CPI printing stronger than expected yesterday, Chuck still believes the Fed Heads will cut rates next week… As far as Chuck in concerned, the rate cut is baked into the cake! And still the knucklehead dollar bugs are still buying dollars…. Really? 

For What It’s Worth…. I mentioned Ray Dalio yesterday in the Pfennig, and then I saw this and thought, what a great way to follow up! This is Ray Dalio talking about Gold & Bitcoin and it can be found here: Bitcoin remains a ‘speculative vehicle’ and ‘won’t work’ as a reserve: ‘I prefer gold’ – Ray Dalio | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Even with Bitcoin trading above $100,000 and a crypto-friendly U.S. administration taking office in the new year, legendary investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio still chooses gold.

“I have a small percentage of my portfolio in crypto,” Dalio said in a recent interview with Investopedia editor-in-chief Caleb Silver. “I prefer gold.”

Dalio added that his exposure to both cryptocurrencies and precious metals is driven by the necessity of holding alternative forms of money.

Bitcoin and gold have both enjoyed banner years, with King Crypto gaining 130% in 2024, while gold is up nearly 32% year-to-date.

Despite Bitcoin outpacing gold by 400%, Dalio said he chooses gold as the premiere alternative currency because he believes crypto still faces unique challenges.

“The reason I’m concerned about crypto is, first of all, privacy,” Dalio said. “The government knows exactly what you’ve got, where it is, and it’s also an effective way of taxing it.”

Dalio said that while Bitcoin has “merit to it,” the number-one crypto has yet to fully “prove itself.” He’s also unconvinced that Bitcoin is a tried-and-true hedge against inflation.

“The reliability of crypto in terms of, let’s say, saying, ‘Does it correlate with inflation? Does it correlate with those things?’ No, it doesn’t really, not well,” he said. “It’s still largely a speculative vehicle.”

He added that unlike gold, Bitcoin probably won’t become a major reserve currency anytime soon.

“It’s not likely to be a reserve for a currency, it won’t work,” Dalio said. “Gold is still the third-largest reserve currency: the U.S. dollar, the euro, gold, and then Japanese yen. So I prefer gold.”

Chuck again… I agree with Ray 100%…  I still believe in my heart of hearts that crypto is all a Ponzi Scheme…. That’s all I have to say about that!

Market Prices 12/12/2024: American Style: A$ .6398, kiwi .5795, C$ .7060, euro 1.0502, sterling 1.2734, Swiss 1.1267, European Style: rand 17.6682, krone 11.0967, SEK 10.9526, forint 388.79, zloty 4.0732, koruna 23.8623, RUB 103.52, yen 152.16, sing 1.3443, HKD 7.7758, INR 84.86, China 7.2689, peso 20.14, BRL 5.9846, BBDXY 1,284.23, Dollar Index 106.63, Oil $70.50, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $30.80, Platinum $936.00, Palladium $980.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold… $2,707.31

That’s it for today and this week… There’s not much to see in the Data Calendar tomorrow, so I won’t be missing anything! The Army / Navy football game is this Saturday… A lot of tradition there….  The house is beginning to look a lot like Christmas, the Christmas tree is up and decorated, and little items are appearing around the house that tells me that Christmas is on its way! I don’t think we’ll have lights on the house this year, my days of climbing ladders are over….  And if I were to put them up, I missed my window of opportunity, as far as weather goes… So…. As George Harrison sang, all things must pass…. John Tesh takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: O’ Come All Ye Faithful… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to defy the data, and rally…
• Consumer Debt explodes higher!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you. Well, I told you on Monday that I was scared to step on the scale after the previous 4 days of celebrating my son’s wedding, and when I did step on the scale, I did an “oh boy”… And not a good “oh boy”…. I was upset to see that I had gained 10 pounds. Pounds that I had already lost not once, but twice, and now I’ll have to lose it again! UGH! This losing weight at my age, and inability to exercise, is very difficult, but I’ll do it, because I had just purchased a size smaller couple of pairs of pants… I’ve gone down 6 waist sizes in the past 2 years… I’m proud of that! The Winter GM meetings in baseball are ongoing right now, I expect to hear that my beloved Cardinals have traded a BIG-NAME player….  Vince Guaraldi greets me this morning with his song: Skating…. 

The dollar drifted higher in yesterday’s trading, with the BBDXY showing a 2 index point gain to 1.282…. I whined enough yesterday about dollar buying so I won’t go further on that today… Just know that I don’t believe that the dollar buyers now, will be happy with their purchases in the near future….  The price of Gold leapt higher yesterday, and ended the day up $36 to close at $2,695, and Silver did indeed make yesterday a “turn around Tuesday” by turning around it’s early morning loss to a gain of 11=cents, to close at $32.01…  That’s a significant, level for Silver to hold and add to, it had tried and tried to get to $31 only to see the short paper traders use that level as a “line in the sand”… But now it’s in Silver’s rear-view mirror….   

I had told you yesterday that China being back at the buying physical Gold table, would help the price of Gold to continue its recovery from the selloff in November… And look there! It passed $2,700 overnight, so back in the saddle again.. Out where a friend is a friend, Where the longhorn cattle feed, On the lowly jimson weed, Gold is back in the saddle again!  

The price of Oil remained trading in the $68 handle again yesterday… That’s 3 trading days without any movement, except within the handle…. Everyone is worried about the goings on over there, including what’s going to happen next in Syria…. So, I guess Oil traders don’t want to make any statements or commitments on the price of Oil… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher again yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 4.23% yield… So, the scenario I laid out for you on Monday this week, seems to be playing out just as I described it….  How about that?

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, here’s the deal…. I overslept again this morning, so that means I got the STUPID CPI report already…. The dollar got bought again in the overseas markets last night, and the BBDXY has gained 1.5 index points to start the day today… The currencies are in retreat once again… The STUPID CPI report showed that U.S. inflation picked up for a second straight month in November on a rise in food and gasoline prices, underscoring that the final stretch of the Federal Reserve’s two-year battle against sharply rising prices has become more challenging.

Consumer prices overall increased 2.7% from a year ago, up/down from 2.6% in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a popular measure of goods and services costs. That’s the second increase following six straight declines and it leaves annual inflation moderately above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a bump to 2.7%

On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.3%, the most since April. That’s “core inflation”, which excludes food and energy, as if we don’t use them daily…. 

So, is the rate cut still on board for the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?  you bet your sweet bippie it is! The Fed Heads cut rates when inflation was still above their target rate of 2%, to start the rate cut cycle, so what’s to stop them from cutting again now?  I read a piece last night about how the write felt that the Fed Heads would cut in December and then pause in January….   For what that’s worth….  

The price of Gold continues to recover its November losses, and starts today up $6, while Silver has given back some to start the day today and is down a shiny quarter….  The dollar bugs believe that this STUPID CPI report along with some of the other data that has printed lately, will cause the Fed Heads from cutting rate next week…. And that’s why the dollar has gained again overnight… I say hogwash!   But then that’s just me… 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight and starts today trading with a $69 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield sits at 4.21% to start the day…  I read a piece by Ray Dalio this morning, and Ray Dalio is someone I respect and enjoy reading… So, Ray said to buy Gold & Bitcoin and not bonds….  He feels like I do that bonds are heading into a headwind that will blow them out of the water…. My words, not Ray’s…. 

I came across some data that I mentioned briefly the other day, and that is the credit card debt in the U.S.   Well, there’s more to the story, and her it is; American consumers now owe over $5.1 trillion in consumer debt.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, U.S. households are buried under a record level of debt. As of the end of the third quarter, total household debt stood at $17.94 trillion.

Aye, Aye, Aye! I don’t blame some people for running up the credit card debt when they need to… But is all that “need to?”   I doubt it….  In addition, the people are just following the lead of the Gov’t. And if all comes to a head, the people will look to the Gov’t for a bail out….  I’m just saying….

I read something last night that scared the bejeebers out of me…. It was Doug Casey’s International Man site, so go there if you want to read more about this gloomy message… Here’s a short description of what it’s all about: “In short, the ruling elite—parasites, more accurately—have weaponized the banking system to enforce conformity to their preferred narrative.

If you speak out against Big Pharma’s poison, a phony climate “crisis,” rigged elections, endless wars sold on lies, or whatever the media is hyping as the “current thing,” expect the financial hammer to come down on you without warning.”

Uh-Oh! I know I’m just little ol’ Chuck in the Midwest writing to his dear readers of years, and I’m flying below their radar, but this all depends on how long this goes on, and how deep it goes….   I sure hope the writer of that article is wrong…. But I’ve worried about guys in sunglasses, showing up at my door, with a cease and desist order for some time, but don’t worry, until that happens if it happens at all, I’ll keep telling you the truth about Gov’t lies, and their rigging the economic reports… You can count on that! 

The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates… The markets are all-in on a Bank of Canada rate cut…  And that’s evident in the Canadian dollar/ loon,,,  The C$ has really dropped in recent days leading up to the rate announcement today…. The European Central Bank (ECB ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB ) will meet tomorrow to announce their rate decisions… I expect all three to announce rate cuts…. So much for defeating inflation, eh? 

The good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday: “Continued restrictions on dollar settlements in world trade will increase the opportunities for using national currencies and developing new universal instruments and gold can again become the dollar’s main competitor in global trade, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said at the Verona Eurasian Economic Forum.

“Using the dollar as an instrument of sanctions is a big mistake, because trade will never stop. Both energy security and life in general depend on it. Alternatives will always be found. Gold will be the dollar’s main competitor, which mankind has been using for thousands of years for settlements,” Sechin said. He also added that the U.S. has lost its leadership in science, industry, and finance and has failed to maintain a fair world order.”

Chuck again… Now that would be something, if Gold did become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us…. And I already went through the STUPID CPI print,  and even if the number is muted by The BLS’s hedonic adjustments, the idea of inflation being sticky, and not going away will be on the markets’ minds, and that should help Gold continue its recovery…. 

Speaking of inflation… Bill Bonner had this report from a friend in Argentina yesterday: “Consumer price inflation hit 25% in the month of December 2023, as Milei took office. That’s equivalent to an annual rate of close to 1,400% (with compounding). Actual (backwards looking) inflation peaked at over 280% in the early part of this year. By October, the latest available figure, Argentina’s monthly inflation rate had dropped to 2.7%, equivalent to 38% a year (with compounding). That’s still high, but it’s a major improvement.” 

Bills letters come from: bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com    

To recap… The dollar drifted higher yesterday by 2 index points in the BBDXY, but Gold gained $36 and Silver gained 11-cents, after starting the day down 19-cents, which would make Silver’s turnaround 30-cents on the day!   The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates…. Gold could become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade, and  are the guys in sunglasses are looking for Chuck?  

For What It’s Worth…  This report just ticked me off to the nth degree!  This is a report about how Gov’t/ Federal workers rarely show up for work but still get paid…. And it can be found here: Senate Report Reveals Only 6% of Federal Workers Show Up in Person on Full-Time Basis

Or, here’s your snippet: “enator Joni Ernst’s office had been investigating the federal government’s telework protocols for the past year and a half and concluded that “The nation’s capital is a ghost town, with government buildings averaging an occupancy rate of 12%.” She revealed that a paltry 6% of the federal workforce “report in-person on a full-time basis” while almost one-third of federal workers are remote on a full-time basis, in a sharp turn-around from the pre-pandemic era in which only 3% teleworked daily. Elon Musk posted this comment: “If you exclude security guards & maintenance personnel, the number of government workers who show up in person and do 40 hours of work a week is closer to 1%! Almost no one.”

She said that President Biden set a bad example by spending little time in the White House. She reported that his administration is not transparent, and it redacted the “work locations of over 281,000 rank-and-file federal employees.” Ernst also faulted federal employee unions for hampering efforts to compel workers to report on-site for their jobs. The union for the Social Security Administration negotiated a contract that will prevent the Trump administration from requiring employees to appear in person for work.”

Chuck Again…. I’ve said my piece above about this…. And I don’t want to get my blood pressure boiling! 

Market Price 12/11/2024: American Style: A$.6365, kiwi .5789, C$ .7053, euro 1.0508, sterling 1.2759, Swiss $1.320, European Style: rand 17.7396, krone 11.1358, SEK 10.9523, forint 389.29, zloty 4.0596, koruna 23.8875, RUB 107.05, yen 152.14, sing 1.3428, HKD 7.7746, INR 84.84, China 7.2613, peso 20.17, BRL 6.0214, BBDXY 1,283.75, Dollar Index 106.53, Oil $69.48, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $31.76, Platinum $937.00, Palladium $964.00, Copper $4.26, and Gold… $2,701.37

That’s it for today… Tomorrow will be the only Tub Thumpin’ Thursday Pfennig this month, as the following Thursday I’ll be in Houston, and then I’m on vacation, so you had better get your coffee, and strudel and sit down tomorrow to read the Pfennig with vigor! HA!  Our Blues played in Vancouver last night, too late for me to watch, but they won 4-3, in overtime…. So, that’s in the books now… I really enjoyed seeing the wily old veteran, Jack Milner Monday night, and old friend Chris Gaffney, and my latte buddy, Michelle Boschert, And Dean, Don, Janet, and then there was my lunch buddy, Ellie Williams… There were more, too many to name, but I had a grand time! My beloved Mizzou Tigers get to bask in the sun from their victory Sunday VS Kansas, until Saturday this week….   Warren Hill takes us to the finish line today with his jazzy version of the song: Santa Baby…. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler              

• the dollar fights back on Monday
• 3 Central Banks will meet this week…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  I had a grand time last night at the get together that Frank Trotter, Chris Lissner, and John Dubinsky held for former Mark Twain Bank employees….Some EverBank folks were there too… I get to see these people (most of them, that is,) once a year, so each year we all age a bit more… A lot of Pfennig readers were there, and they all asked to see pictures of the wedding…. I told them that Kathy had most of the photos, and she wouldn’t share with me!   Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year!   

Well, in my opinion, yes, it is!  

Well, the dollar fought back during the U.S. trading hours yesterday. The BBDXY started the day down 3 index points, but by end of the day, the BBDXY had gained back those 3 index points to end the day at 1,280. There was no data for traders to use to judge whether they should extend the dollar or throw it out the window….  Yesterday, the Big Brokerage Firm of Morgan Stanley, told everyone that: “It was time to sell the dollar” We will have to wait-n-see if that has any bearing on dollar traders today… 

Gold, which was up $28 yesterday morning, ended the day up $26 to close at $2,659.20, and Silver went up, down, up, down but ended the day unchanged on the day, so up 93-cents at $31.90….   There was news yesterday that the COMEX will be issuing new 1 ounce Gold contracts…. They figure that it will help the young folks to get into the Gold markets easier, with less money up front.  I say hogwash!  I don’t claim to have my finger on the pulse of young people, but they are dealing with all kinds of things, and one of them isn’t getting into the Gold Market….  I hope I’m wrong on that, because it’s never too early to start amassing Gold…. But remember, Gold is a store of wealth, and I doubt that many young people have any wealth to store…. I’m just saying…. 

Here’s the note that the good folks at GATA sent me: “In a move that may flood the market with more “paper” gold, CME Group Inc., the parent company of COMEX, the leading U.S. exchange for gold and silver futures, will introduce a one-ounce gold futures contract in January.

This move comes in response to soaring demand from retail investors, spurred by gold’s record-breaking rally this year from $2,000 to $2,630a respectable 32% gain. Smaller-sized gold products have grown increasingly popular among retail investors seeking exposure to precious metals and greater diversification in their portfolios. ..”

The price of Oil remained trading in the $68 handle yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to 4.19%,,, If we see the 10-year’s yield rise back to 4.27% in the next few days, then we will know in our heart of hearts that the Fed Heads were in buying the yield curve again and that what brought the 10=-year’s yield down to 4.17% yesterday…. 

This dollar buying is giving me a rash…  I just don’t get it, and while I’m not the sharpest tool in the toolbox, I do understand what moves currencies and metals… And I don’t see the reasons for buying dollars right now, other than the media calls the Trump Shock… But as I told you yesterday, I do believe that the Trump Shock is fading, and hopefully that will bring saner minds back to the currency desks… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought, not my leaps and bounds, but bought nonetheless… The BBDXY gained about 1.5 Index points last night and starts today at 1,281.54….  Gold is up $14 in the early trading, as it continues to recover from the selling in November…. I read somewhere that Gold had lost 2.5% in November, but is still up 28% for 2024… And Silver is seeing some selling in the early trading and is down 13-cents to start the day today…. That 13-cent loss is easily turned around, so c’mon Silver, make this a Turn Around Tuesday!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $68 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose overnight to 4.22%… Seems that what I said above is playing out here…. Interesting, isn’t it?  The Bond Vigilantes are lining up their ducks in a row, so that when the time comes and they feel ready to unleash their power on the bond market, they will do just that, and each and every Treasury bond will feel their wrath…. I keep saying that if you need to buy Treasuries to buy the short end of the curve, do not expose yourself to the pain that will be inflicted on bonds by the Vigilantes….  You see…. The bond boys feel that with the debt at levels that are difficult to finance now, that going further out on the calendar, it will be nearly impossible to finance, at current yield levels, and with the Fed Heads thinking of cutting rates, the bond boys have decided to take this yield curve into their own hands, and deal with yields appropriately…. 

Only Quantitative Easing will throw down roadblocks to the bond boys/ Vigilantes…  And we’re far from that happening again, and let’s hope it never does return! 

Well, he’s not even the actual president yet, but he’s making waves with regards to talking up the tariffs he plans to implement against Canada, Mexico and China, and any of the 9 BRICS countries….  Well, there was news yesterday from China that they are cancelling $690 in exports to the U.S….  Remember when I told you that these tariffs could start a global depression?  Well, I do believe that it’s getting a start… This could all get very ugly in Global trade folks.. Got Gold?

This week we will see three Central Bank meetings that could all end up being very good for Gold… The European Central Bank (ECB ), Swiss National Bank (SNB) and The Bank of Canada, (BOC), all hold meeting this week, where the markets all think that all 3 will be cutting their interest rates… I think any Central Bank that is entertaining a rate cut right now, has to have their respective heads examined!  What do they think will happen with prices of goods when there’s a Global Depression?  But that’s them and their problem, but it’s not going to help their respective currencies any….   The tariffs aren’t going to help the dollar, I can’t see how they think debasing their currencies will help them either…. Got Gold?

There aren’t many articles for me to talk about this morning, so I’ll just head to the Big Finish… Besides, the letter is tardy this morning, as Chuck couldn’t answer the bell this morning….

The U.S. Data Cupboard still doesn’t have any real economic data for us today…  Tomorrow, tomorrow, there will be economic data for us tomorrow, it’s only a day away! 

To recap…. The dollar fought back in the U.S. session yesterday, after getting sold in the overnight markets, the dollar gained back its losses as the day went on…. Gold lost just $2 from its $28 early morning gains, and Silver ended the day up the 93-cents it was up in the early morning trading… So, in looking back, the metals didn’t really move after the early trading and the dollar was flat for its last 24 hours… There will be 3 Central Bank meetings this week that should yield rate cuts from all three. China is cancelling $690 Billion in exports to the U.S. and Chuck reminds us that all the tariffs could start a Global depression….   

For What It’s Worth…. I’ve used the folks at Gold Switzerland many times in the past, so folks should recognize the name Egon Von Greyerz, who wrote the FWIW today, and it can be found here: THE EVIL CYCLES OF WAR AND ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION

Or, here’s your snippet:”As we approach what usually should be a blissful holiday period, the treacherous path the world is now on does not bode well for 2025 and beyond.

Two global crises will dominate the world for at least several years and possibly decades.

FINANCIAL CRISIS

The crisis I have been discussing and writing about for many years is the end of the current monetary era, especially in the West. The exponential growth of debt, which we have experienced since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, is reaching an uber-exponential phase in the current century with runaway deficits and debt.

The likely course of events is unlimited money printing to counter an uncontrollable debt crisis. This leads to monetary debasement, high inflation or hyperinflation, which eventually turns into a deflationary collapse of the financial system and depression.

THERE CAN BE NO CLEARER SIGN OF THE END OF AN ECONOMIC ERA THAN WHEN THE RESERVE CURRENCY DECLINES BY 99%.  

A possible alternative would be that the financial system implodes before the money printing has taken effect, with a subsequent deflationary implosion. This would mean a period without functioning banks and money.

As this is the way every monetary system has ended in history, without fail, anyone questioning this inevitable outcome will be entirely wrong. It is only a question of when, not if.”

Chuck again… This article goes on longer with more information for the reader… So, if you have the time, please click on the link above, because if you do, you’ll know why I always ask, Got Gold?

Market Prices 12/10/2024: American Style: A$ .6393, kiwi .5818, C$ .7059, euro 1.0521, sterling 1.2752, Swiss $1.1364, European Style: rand 17.8708, krone 11.1511, SEK 10.9651, forint 390.59, zloty 4.0567, koruna 23.8585, RUB 102.37, yen 151.64, sing 1.3414, HKD 7.7790, INR 84.55, China 7.2544, peso 20.16, BRL 6.0435, BBDXY 1,281, Dollar Index 106.40, Oil $68.08, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $31.77, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $964.00, Copper 4.24, and Gold…. $2,673.68

That’s it for today… Well, I’m at home now until the 19^th of December, when I head to Houston, and MD ANDERSON MEDICAL CENTER….  it’s will only be an in and out, same day for the trip… And then I head South on the 30^th of Dec. YAHOO! Not that I don’t like seeing my friends and family all the time, but I can’t stand cold weather, and I’m spending too much time in it now! I would much rather be in weather where I can wear shorts, and polo shirts! No coats, no hats, no gloves, etc. etc.    And don’t forget Chuck’s annual Christmas vacation!  12/18 – 12/31, where I’ll write to you from S. Florida for the next 3 months! People always ask, when will you come back home, and I always respond with: When the Cardinals go North, I go North….. The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Baby, It’s Cold Outside…. I hope you have a Tom Teriffic Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler