Author: admin

• the dollar gets sold, Gold gets bought on Friday!
• Did Powell really tell us anything new?

Good Day… And a Super Sunday to you! Yes, this is coming to you on Sunday, as you might recall me telling you last Thursday that there wouldn’t be a Pfennig on Monday. But, there was so much that went on Friday, and this couldn’t wait until Tuesday to tell you… This won’t be like the Sunday Pfennigs that I used to write, decades ago, so don’t freak out, as this will be short-n-sweet… I watched our City STL soccer club’s game last night… What a joke the referring is in the MSL! The Penalty shot called on the STL club was a ghost penalty!  Oh well… Maroon 5 greets me this morning with their song: This Love

Well, he said the magic words last Friday… Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel decided that he’s taken enough of the guff from the POTUS, and told the crowd at Jackson Hole that “interest rates will be cut soon” according to the markets… What he actually said was that “conditions may warrant rate cuts”…  That’s not exactly what the markets took him to say, but that’s nit-picking isn’t it? 

So much for reading the tea leaves in the FOMC Meeting Minutes last week, that pretty much said, “no, we’re waiting to cut rates”… And that thought had the dollar bugs dancing in the street, and the BBDXY rose to 1,210…  And then Powell, pulled the punchbowl back from the crowd,  and the dollar bugs were dancing no longer…

The dollar began immediately to get sold, and by 11 a.m. The BBDXY had given back 9 index points! And Gold had turned around a negative start to its morning, and was punishing the dollar and taking names later… Gold gained $33 on Friday, and ended the week at $3,373… Silver was also into punishing the dollar and taking names later as it gained $69-cents, and closed the week at $38.95…

The BBDXY ended up Friday, down 9 index points to 1,201, so after the initial knee-jerk reaction to sell dollars, there was no follow-through on Friday… I think the dollar traders thought that they had done enough for one day and so they closed their books and handed them over to Asia for the follow-through…  

The Oil traders were oblivious to the goings on with the Jackson Hole shindig and kept the price of oil trading with a $63 handle to end the week.  And, as you can imagine, the bond boys began to buy bonds once again, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury’s yield came down to end the week at 4.26%… 

Well, that was some kind of reaction to the words, ” conditions may warrant rate cuts”, eh?   I mean he could  have given us more, like when it’s going to warrant the rate cuts, because in his heart of hearts, he knows!  The markets, and rightly so in my mind, took his words to mean at the very next FOMC meeting on Sept 17th…  And with inflation rising… This all spells disaster in my mind… And I know that history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but history always does  seem to be at the scene of the crime, eh?

In the early 1970’s Arthur Burns was the Fed/ Cabal/Cartel chairman, and he decided to cut rates, with the inflation rate on the rise, thinking that inflation would come back down… But, with the Oil embargo causing the price of Oil to spike, and other things going on, inflation didn’t come back, and instead it started rising, and didn’t stop rising until Paul Volcker put an end to it in 1980-81… Almost a decade of high inflation really took its toll on Middle America…  And Gold went to the moon, at that time that is. Should we expect the same kind of reaction in Gold this time? I would bet your bottom dollar it would! 

I bet that most of you couldn’t tell who the Fed Heads Chairman was in the early 70’s…  That’s because before Big Al Greenspan The Fed Heads were unknown to most of Americans, because they weren’t that important… I’m just saying… I only know because my longtime good friend and former boss, Frank Trotter told me that story years ago! 

Circling back to Gold for a minute… It was quite apparent that the short paper traders weren’t going to let Gold & Silver have a long runway… The SPT’s were in the markets doing damage control all day, and that kept Gold & Silver from gaining more on Friday…  The total of shorts that Ed Steer posts in his Saturday letter each and every week, show that the shorts in Silver are going down. Gold a little less, but still, that’s progress… Still not of the numbers that make sense but progress nonetheless… you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldandsilver.com  

No Data Cupboard today, it’s Sunday! But, I can tell you that on Tuesday we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods… And then on Thursday we’ll see the first revision to the 2^nd QTR GDP, and on Friday we’ll see Personal Income and Spending for July, along with the July PCE (supposedly the Fed Head’s favorite inflation calculator…  And could very well be the key indicator of when the next rate cut will come…  I suspect the PCE will be benign and leave us with more questions than we had going into the print… 

For What It’s Worth… This will be something different in its delivery to you, but why not, it’s a Sunday Pfennig!  The Good Folks at Gata sent this to me, and its a YOUTUBE about the end of the SPT’s and can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EF4H8X5Fik

Or, here’s your snippet: “London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program at YouTube, says major participants in the gold market no longer consider the New York Commodities Exchange and the London Bullion Market Association dependable for delivering real metal and are taking their business to Asian exchanges where delivery is quick.

Maguire adds that governments have begun to consider treating silver as a sovereign reserve asset like gold.

He believes that “paper” gold will be finished when the December gold futures contract closes at the end of November and U.S. bullion banks become obliged to comply with Basel III rules and stop selling metal they don’t have.”

Chuck Again… I guess this will depend on whether the Bullion Banks follow the rules, or if they find a way around them… 

Friday’s major markets prices: Gold $3,373, Silver $38.95, BBDXY 1.201, Oil $63.66 and the 10-year 4.26%

That’s it for today… I’m still not steady with my stomach and digestive system, the last infusion really did a number on me!  Or, maybe it was an accumulation of all the infusions that I’ve had since I started them on Dec 30th… But, I’ll have a long discussion about this with my oncologist when I see her next on Sept. 11th… I can’t stand this feeling, but I’ve been in worse condition during my 18-year journey through Cancer…  I guess to have stomach problems and being alive is better than not having them and not being alive! The Rascals takes us to the finish line today with their hit 60’s song: Beautiful Morning…   It’s kind of cloudy out right now, so I can’t agree with them today… HA!  I hope you have a Super Sunday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• FMOC minutes show most Fed Heads fear inflation….
• Gold & Silver recover from Tuesday’s SPT event…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my eye doctor said I have a good strong eye now, so I have that going for me!  He did tell me again that he is worried about me not wearing plain glasses to protect my good eye… I’ll think about it…  I[m getting used to wearing them only when I read, which is a lot any way! My beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Marlins and now move north to Tampa Bay… Yesterday, was my darling daughter, Dawn’s Birthday… I still remember the night and early morning when she was born… She had a full head of black hair, that by age one had changed to blonde… Happy Birthday, Boo!  One of my fave Uriah Heep’s songs greets me this morning… Stealin’

Well, another day closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, didn’t change much from the day before when the markets failed to move much… The FOMC meeting Minutes printed from their last meeting, and they reflected the opinion of the FOMXC Committee members that inflation is still a problem and that it’s most likely to get worse, and that the Ma and Pa’s are going to feel the brunt of the hurt from inflation.. 

Does that sound like a Committee that’s ready to cut rates?  Not to me… But then the Committee members are feeling tons of pressure from the POTUS to cut rates… Wait! Isn’t the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel supposed to be independent? Don’t tell Janet Yellen that, because late in Trump’s first campaign, she hike rates for no apparent reason, other than to get the new president off on bad foot…  I’m just saying… 

OK, well, because some of the traders out there still have some gray matter, and come around to my way of thinking every now and then, they took the FOMC’s notes and said, ” no rate cut, yet”…  And that helped the dollar bugs and the BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day to end the day at 1,206…  Now, I’m saying that there will be no rate cut next month, what I am saying the idea of a rate cut is more questionable now… 

Gold recovered from the engineered takedown the SPT’s gave it on Tuesday, when it was down $17, and came back strong by gaining $32 yesterday to close at $3,346. Silver had a tough time on Tuesday too, losing 65-cents, but gained most of it back yesterday, gaining 53-cents to close at $37.85

The price of Oil ended the day with a $63 handle… And the 10-year Treasury Bond saw some buying (from whom? I can only guess who!) and the yield ended the day at 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Minutes causing dollar buying carried over to the overnight markets last night, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points this morning at 1,208… OK, this is when, in the past, the Fed Heads would “surprise” the markets, and then sit back at the Eccles Bldg. And laugh HAHAHAHAHA! So, this could be the trap the Fed Heads are setting… That everyone gives up the ghost on a rate cut next month, but the Fed Heads surprise the markets with one! 

I wouldn’t put it past them to do that… I doubt they will though… I’m just saying… 

Gold is seeing some selling this morning is down $7 to start the day, while Silver is up 4-cents…  I would be nice to see a more than one day and done rally for the metals, now wouldn’t it?  The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield didn’t move and starts today at 4.30%

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates yesterday, to 3.0%… Their statement centered around how while inflation is  still in the 2-3% range, their models have inflation lowering toward 2%, So, they went ahead and cut rates now…  I think they will rue the day that jumped the gun… I’m just saying… And the markets are thinking correctly as they sold kiwi after the RBNZ debased the currency…

And remember when I said that the Bank of England (BOE) would rue the day that they jumped the gun and cut rates too soon, that inflation would come back to bite them in the rear? Well check this out; “inflation rose to 3.8% in the year to July, the highest since January 2024, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.”  Just show to go you, that these Central Banks would be far better off if they just read the Pfennig and listened to me! HA! 

Circling back to the U.S. and good and longtime reader of mine, sent me this note: ” In 2014 $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.

In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year. 

Chuck Again.. now add that  to the new debt that will be issued this year, and we’ve probably get to a number that’s bone chilling!”

And at a much higher rate than what they issued at that’s for sure! It’s time for the U.S. Gov’t/ Treasury, revaluate Gold, eh?  IF the U.S. really does hold over 8,000 Tons of physical Gold, do you think that revaluing it would make a dent in our debt?  Only if the revalue price is something out of this world! In, fact if they revalued Gold to $5,000 oz… That would only pay for one’s years debt servicing!  Insane, right? 

Remember when I told you that 1 Trillion years ago, puts us Before Christ was born? And now we have $37 Trillion in debt…  Think about that and tell me how we get out of this mess?  Default? Well, we would have go all-in on the default and start all over again, and hopefully there’s still someone in the world that would take our new debt… 

You may also recall me telling that James Rickards told us about the $150 Trillion Birthright, right? This is what the minerals are worth that are still in the ground on Federal Land… There’s a whole story on the Birthright thing, I suggest you Google it and find out more, but I’m here to tell you that IF all goes well, we won’t begin to see these gains for years… And also let me tell you that none of that $150 Trillion will make it your mailbox in the form of a check….   

OK, fair and balanced … I told you one way we default and one way we dig ourselves out of this debt mess…. Go ahead and hang your hat on one, and then make your investment decisions on whichever you take….  but for me… Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Leading Indicators for July today… This data set has been negative for so long now that the Dead Seas wasn’t even sick yet, when it started! And then Tomorrow is the BIG DAY! Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman Jerome Powell will give is keynote presentation at the Jackson Hole Shindig..  It will interesting if he gives any indication that he read the FOMC minutes, or what his direction will lead to…   

To recap… The FOMC Meeting Minutes really threw a spanner in the works yesterday, and caused the dollar bugs to buy dollars, and the Bond Boys to buy bonds… Chuck has some interesting things to think about in today’s Pfennig, something for you to chew on all weekend! 

For What It’s Worth… Recall that I keep saying that U.S. Companies are going to go belly up? Well, this article puts some ammo in my gun so to speak… This about how many Companies have gone belly up so far this year and it can be found here: US corporate bankruptcies soar, cross 2020 pandemic levels with 71 filings in a month: Report – US News | The Financial Express

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The US economy has been hit by a fresh wave of bankruptcy filings, which has surged to their highest level since 2020 Covid-19 pandemic, when similar situations were seen across the country. A report in Business Insider mentioned that several popular brands of 1990s and 2000s brands were among the companies that have filed for bankruptcy, continuing a trend that lays open the status of the United States’ economy.

Data from S&P 500 Global showed that this summer, the number of filing for US corporate bankruptcy surpassed the level of 2020, the Business Insider report mentioned. A total of 71 public and private companies filed for bankruptcy last month, which is 8 more than June when 63 companies had filed for bankruptcy.

Which companies have filed for bankruptcy?

According to the report, the companies include some beloved brands like Forever 21 and Joann. Many other famous retailers are forced to shut their stores to reduce physical footprint amid loss. While the US stock market has been standing tall to any economic upheaval with 3% economic growth in the second quarter, some experts said July is rather stressful, the report mentioned.

Focus on 30 export markets to intensify amid impending slump in shipments to US

“Companies are contending with elevated interest rates as uncertainty from US tariff policy pressures costs and supply chain resilience,” S&P 500 Global said, Insider quoted.

Companies like Canned goods producer Del Monte Foods filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as they witnessed reduced demand and high inventory costs. Their leadership reportedly also cited a heavy debt burden. Last month, a Business Insider report had claimed that Del Monte had combined debts of between $1 billion and $10 billion.”

Chuck again… And they blame it on high interest rates, while I don’t argue that the aren’t helping, IF you consider 4.25% a high interest rate!  Not a word about how these companies borrowed BIG TIME at low interest rates, and now have to roll over the loans to higher interest rates… Nah, that would be telling the truth, and not lies… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 8/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6524, kiwi .5823, C$ .7239, euro 1.1629, sterling 1.3461, Swiss  $1.2403, European Style: rand 17.6110, krone 10.1760, SEK 9.5912, forint 340.08, zloty 3.6528, koruna 21.0705, RUB 80.57, yen 147.81, sing 1.2872, HKD 7.8130, INR 87.26, China 7.1784, peso 18.75, BRL 5.4290, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.36, Oil $63.18, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $37.89, Platinum $1,337.00, Palladium $1,123.00, Copper $4.50, and Gold… 3,339

That’s it for today… There will be no Pfennig on Monday next week, as I have a doctor’s appt many miles from here. He is my lungs doctor, just a follow up to make sure I continued my recovery…  And next week we close out August… I’m not going to attempt to have my traditional Butler Family Labor Day BBQ, this year… I’m just not ready for that yet… The College Football Season begins this weekend. YAHOO! I cooked me a thick steak on the Brownstone last night, and then couldn’t eat it, my stomach revolted on me! UGH! Steak and eggs this morning? Now that sounds good, C’Mon stomach play along with me here! The Beach Boys takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Gold Only Knows…  One of the best Beach Boys songs in their list of hit songs… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Monday…
• Dastardly SPT’s, doing dastardly things…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Day today for you!  Another day of distress for my digestive system, I hope it ends soon, for I don’t want to have to stop withe the medicine they are infusing in me… In 2018, I was on a chemo medicine that made my stomach so awful they had to take me off the medicine… The doctors soon found another chemo for me, and since then I haven’t had major stomach problems that last long… until now… UGH!  My beloved Cardinals beat the Marlins in Miami last night, now if only they could build on that victory and get another the next night, and the next night, etc   In 2011, the Cardinals were 10.5 games out of a playoff spot in late August.  And ended up qualifying for the Playoffs! They achieved this remarkable feat with a 23-9 record to close out the season…. Hey! Stranger things have happened, which a true fan sticks with the hope…. Booker T and the M.G.’s greet me this morning with their song: Green Onions…

Well, in our world of opposites the dollar rallied yesterday, on the thought that the next rate cut would be announced as coming from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole shindig that is coming this week… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,205… A memo to the dollar traders… When a country debases their currency with rate cuts you are supposed to sell the currency… I just don’t get it… Back in the day when I was I was first learning the ropes to currency trading, this is what I learned… Debase the currency, the currency suffers… End of story… But in this day of sentiment ruling currency traders direction instead of fundamentals, we get this opposite behavior… 

Gold and Silver on the other hand should rallly when rates get cut… And they got sold yesterday, with Gold selling down $12 and Silver lost 31-cents…  what will it take to return to fundamentals? God only knows (Beach Boys) Gold held steady for a good part of the day yesterday, until the short paper traders entered the market… Again! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield ended the day with a 4.33% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… There wasn’t any movement from the dollar bugs overnight, the BBDXY is still at 1,205 this morning as we start our day…  I think the markets are for lack of a better description, holding their breaths, ahead of the Jackson Hole shindig… So, there’s that… Gold, this morning is up $7 to start our day, and Silver is up 14-cents… But when you look back to yesterday, Gold & Silver were up early, before the short paper traders arrived, and plotted their dastardly design to take down the metals… Who knows where Gold & Silver would have ended the day had the short paper traders had a flat tire on the way to work and didn’t show up! I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slid bac to the $52 handle overnight… A very tight range… And the 10-year Treasury is stating the day with a 4.32% yield…  I just don’t see much movement in the markets the next couple of days with the Jackson Hole shindig on the horizon… 

I really went long an tough on the U.S. and its debt yesterday, eh? Well, someone should take the  lawmakers and Central Bank to the wood shed  besides me… But here I am all by myself ( Eric Carmen). I need Lola, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and other big banks to diss the U.S. and the debt for anything to get take hold.. But that won’t happen because they’d get taken to the woodshed by the POTUS…

I have something for you in the FWIW section today, that’s not a widely used indicator, but I think it should be heard… and so I let them opine here! 

And there will be no Pfennig tomorrow for I have to be at the eye doctor early… It’s just a check-up from my cataract surgery… no biggie… So, mark your calendars… 

With the markets holding their breath… There’s not a lot to talk about that I haven’t already beaten like an old rug… 

There is a report that mining companies are looking to go back to the Black Hills of S. Dakota again… There was a gold rush there 150 or so years ago, and the native Indians were displaced… So, the mining cos. Are not being welcomed back with open arms… With Gold prices over $3,000 oz, you can see why the mining cos are wanting to come back… Well, please don’t disrupt the natural beauty of the area!  

You know when I was a youngster I used to read about stuff from the 1800’s and think that it really wasn’t that long ago, but now… That’s eons from now!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard has two housing prints, and two Fed Heads our speaking…  I told you yesterday that the Data Cupboard was a non-event this week… So, we’re stuck with all distractions that the Gov’t keeps throwing up to get out minds off how bad things are… The Cost of Living is rising…  The debt is unsustainable… And Companies will be soon coming to grips with fact that they can’t continue… UGH!

To recap… The dollar got bought yesterday, because we’re growing closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, and the markets are thinking that Jerome Powell’s keynote speech will tell them ahead of the meeting in Sept, what the Fed is going to do, and that’s cut rates…  Chuck explains how that thought process is backward, but we are living in an age of opposites! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, a pre-sold this article above and now it’s time to deliver the goods, and they can be found here: Cardboard Box Sales Fall in Worrying Sign for US Retail – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet; ‘Analysts and investors will scour Friday’s retail sales report for a readout on how US households are feeling about the economy. Those watching the cardboard box industry say they already have an idea.

A nontraditional economic indicator, sales of the corrugated cardboard used to make the boxes that transport everything from doughnuts to dishwashers are slumping, signaling that retail demand across industries may be due for its own correction in the not-too-distant future.

US box shipments—that is, volumes of empty packaging materials sold to retailers, which in turn use them to ship orders to warehouses, storefronts and Americans’ doorsteps—fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association, a trade group. (Corrugated cardboard also goes into other items, such as 3D advertising displays, but since the vast majority is used for packaging, the industry tends to use “box shipments” and “corrugated cardboard shipments” interchangeably.)

Memphis-based International Paper Co., one of the world’s largest pulp and paper companies, reported a 5% drop in daily US box shipments in the quarter from the same period a year ago, while packaging giant Smurfit Westrock Plc, based in Dublin, saw a 4.5% slide in North American corrugated cardboard volumes, the biggest drop across all of the regions it operates. “If volume picked up in the United States, that would give us more confidence, but we haven’t seen that yet,” Chief Executive Officer Anthony Smurfit said on a recent earnings call.

The strength of the highly seasonal cardboard box industry isn’t necessarily a one-to-one proxy for retail spending, but—like beauty-shop outlays or consumer sentiment—it can flash early signals when things start to go amiss. And because boxes aren’t usually ordered that far in advance, they can offer a nearly real-time indicator of buying and manufacturing activity.”

Chuck Again…Well, that was different, eh? Only time will tell if it was a true indicator, of which I do believe It is… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 8/19/2025: American Style: A$ .6490, kiwi .5921, C$ .7239, euro 1.1681, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2413, European Style: rand 17.6243, krone 10.2081, SEK 9.5439, forint 337.04, zloty 3.6347, koruna 20.9431, RUB 80.79, yen 147.76, sing 1.2831, HKD 7.8020, INR 86.95, China 7.1793, peso 18.78, BRL 5.4363, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.03, Oil $ 62.62, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.11, Platinum $1,351.00. Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,341

That’s it for today…Well, I ran some errands yesterday, without any stomach problems, so that was good, but as soon as I arrived home, they began… UGH! The kids around here are back to school… So be careful out there!  The Brewers finally lost! After 14 consecutive wins… And then the next day they started another winning streak VS the Cubs… They are THE team this year… I was so upset with Amazon… On 8/15 I ordered a book, and the next day they told me it wouldn’t arrive here until 8/23! UGH! When you can’t depend on next day delivery any longer, you know that the economy is showing strains… Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: 25 or 6 to 4… The first time I heard this song and the the guitar playing of Terry Kath, I was blown away!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Friday, but get sold overnight last night
• That old Debt….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my fumbling, stumbling, beloved Cardinals found a way to blow leads in the final two games of the series with the Yankees, and got swept! There’s not a lot in the way of data this week, so we’ll be subjected to the Gov’t’s attempt to divert our attention away from the problems… Look, there, I already started today with the attack… I’m still feeling the effects of my infusion last Thursday… I normally get over them in one day, but this time it has held onto me for 4 days… UGH!   J.D Southern greets me this morning with his song; You’re Only Lonely

And that’s exactly how I felt when I had no “Tech” person to handle my problems last week… This working as a lone wolf has its benefits, but not having someone to go to when I have problems is not one of them!  Oh well, que sera, sera… 

The U.S. dollar ran into some selling on Friday, and the BBDXY was lowered by 3 index points, to 1,202… The dollar had a brief rally on Thursday last week that took the BBDXY to 1,205, and that rally came about because the PPI (wholesale inflation) leapt higher to  gain .9% in July… Now, we all know that PPI leads to higher CPI (consumer inflation) and that would be another chip for the rate cut bugs… Opposite of what should happen when a country debases their currency, right? But we live in this era of opposites, so that’s that! 

Gold is in the summer swoon, and investors will come back in September, but for now Gold has to be strong and resilient to maintain its value… And on Thursday last week Gold lost $21 and Silver lost 60-cents…  And on Friday, Gold tried like the dickens to gain ground but was snuffed out by the short paper traders every time it mounted a charge, and ended the day down 30-cents… So, flat if you will.. And Silver did the same as Gold and was down a plug nickel… yes, 5-cents…  

Speaking of Gold… this from Goldmoney.com “A stand-out feature was the scale of stand-for-deliveries in the Comex gold contract, at 90.6 Tonnes from 31 July so far, reflecting the expiry of the August contract. 267.5 Tonnes of silver were also stood for delivery. To put these numbers in context, 861 Tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery since 1 January.”

In my mind, this is a very good sign for Gold (& Silver), as it means that more investors are taking deliver, of physical Gold!  

The price of Oil bumped higher for the first time in over 10 days,  on Thursday and then gave it back on Friday, to end the week with a $62 handle…  And the 10-year continued to see buyers until it didn’t… And it didn’t on Thursday after the PPI  printed, and the bond boys got spooked… The 10-year ended the week with a 4.32% yield…  Now that was quite the turnaround wasn’t it? I had reported that the 10-year’s yield was 4.20% on Thursday morning… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was bought by a bit, with the BBDXY rising 2 index points, and we start the day/ week at 1,204… Gold is firmer this morning, gaining $12 to start the day/ week, and Silver is up 11-cents. I think the markets will be subdued this week as everyone is looking toward the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium starts on Thursday…  But then, what do I know? A lot, thank you! HA!  

The price of Oil has bumped higher overnight and starts our day/ week with a $63 handle… There’s an Oil glut right now according to our friends (NOT!) at OPEC… So, that should keep the price of Oil trading in a tight range… And the bond boys are keeping the selling going in the 10-year Treasury, as the yield of the bond rose to 4.32% where it starts the day/week. 

I have an old friend, not saying he’s old, just our acquaintance is old… Dan Denning is his name and he writes for Bonner Privat Research group… that consists of Bill Bonner, Dan Denning and Tom Dyson. They put out tremendous stuff about investing and the data behind it…Their subscription costs, so if you interested, click the link below… Every week, Dan Denning sends me his letter… I hope he doesn’t mind me borrowing a line or two from his letter: 

 And further, that Americans are more tied to stocks in their 401k’s than ever before…  And this plays well with my thought on the season of opposites going on.. Here’s Dan, ” investors poo poohing 2.7% annualized CPI numbers–and bidding up stocks even higher–is another example of the kind of self-deception that’s only possible at the end of a cycle. So is is believing both higher than normal CPI and PPI readings mean the Fed could cut 50 or 100 basis points when it meets next month. Madness. Hallucinations.”

Chuck again…  To me, that’s all very scary… Hy Minsky called what will eventually happen, a Minsky Moment..  And speaking of something scary… It was reported last week that investors in their late 30’s have 88% of their 401k’s in stocks… 

I know, I know this is a currency, metals, economies, and dolts, letter, not a stock letter… But there’s something strange going on that reminds me of the dot-com bubble.. During that bubble’s rise, there was Cisco leading the way… Just like the AI bubble that’s now building… It’s leader, will be sorted out in time, but my guess would be that it’s there right now… I’m not naming names, because that could get me in trouble… But I know you can guess who it is… 

Ok… back to regimen!  

Last week I talked about how the U.S. Current Debt has surpassed $37 Trillion…  I’ve been banging the drum to reduce our debt for decades now… And not once have out lawmakers taken that thought to heart, and cut expenditures… Here’s where the cheese comes to bind folks.. We, as a country cannot pay down our debt, so when the financing tool for the debt comes due, we simply roll it for a new term… At a much higher rate than the original debt was held…  Are you getting what I’m telling you? This cannot go on forever, in fact, I doubt it can go on past another 5 years, but then, that’s just me… And to me, this alone is NO REASON to hold U.S. dollars, except for gas, groceries and giggles… 

My favorite read, Grant Williams’ Things That Make You Go Hmmm… featured the U.K and France’s debt problem they are in… So, it’s not just the U.S. with this debt problem…  But, we live here and work here and have fun here, and for that we’ll get to pay for the tariffs that have been implemented, and we’ll also get to deal with higher inflation, and Companies going belly up, thus putting lots of people out of jobs… Oh Boy! Can I have another helping of this? NOT!

Are you willing to have your 401K’s denominated in nothing but Treasuries? Because that’s what it is going to come to, as countries around the world balk at buying Treasuries and there’s nowhere else for Treasuries to go, except your 401K… I’m just saying… 

I know, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning… NOT! I can’t stop on the subject once I get going on debt…  

But the word is out… The U.S. isn’t going to cut expenditures, nor is it going to even attempt to do so… And for that reason alone, the FOMC is left with no choice but to cut rates to lessen the weight on the U.S. finances, but that will invite inflation back to the table, as it has been sent to the kids’ table for a while… 

And will it hurt everyone? No… only you, me and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off… The regular Joes are the ones that will feel the effects of the rising inflation…  And no, I’m not one of those that believe the Rich could pay off our debt…  There’s no way that could even come close, but what I do believe we could do is to raise their taxes to a rate that closer to the one we pay, 25-30%, that increase alone would help pay for some of the line items in the budget… 

Got Gold?  I know that owning Gold can be frustrating at times as the short paper traders take their pound of flesh… But much like the toaster oven the chef is on TV hawking, set it and forget it… Buy Gold and forget you have it if you get antsy about selling it when it looks bleak…. And when Battle Bank gets the wink and nod from the regulators to open, they will allow Gold in IRA’s… So, get ready to transfer your IRA to them, because that’s a great idea! 

There’s not much going on in the world these days, with regard to monetary policy, so we’ll just move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for…But the Jackson Hole shindig will hold the key this week… with the chief jefe speaking, the markets will want signs that he’s going to cut rates at the next meeting… If he fails to deliver, the markets will genuflect and react negatively… Who knows which way the sentiment will fall with the dollar at that point… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday last week had some surprising data for us… First up was the July Retail Sales, which I had told you last week that the BHI indicated that it would be good… And it was, rising .5%…  Apparently to back to school purchasing was off the record!  Industrial Production for July was negative -.1%… I have something for you on Industrial Production in the FWIW section today, so stay turned!.. And Capacity Utilization slipped lower again to 77.5%…  And finally on Friday, the STUPID Consumer Sentiment for August (prelim) fell from 62.5 to 57.2… Maybe, just maybe more people are waking up and smelling the coffee?

This week’s Data Cupboard will be an exercise in nothingness…  We’ll see the FOMC meeting minutes from the last meeting… The only thing to look for here is how many dissenters were there to keeping rates unchanged… We should keep track of their names so we can tar and feather them when rates are lowered and inflation comes back with a vengeance! 

August 21-23… mark your calendars! The 2025 Jackson Hole meeting will take place and the Fed/ Cabal Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell will give the keynote address… This is the meeting that Quantitative Easing was first announced to the public years ago… So, we could look for fireworks, or a packet of lies… take your pick, both won’t be good for the economy… I’m just saying

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, but rallied overnight to get some of the loss back, we start the day/ week at 1,204 in the BBDXY… Gold is in the summer swoon, so any gains it musters is icing on the cake.. This has happened with Gold about every summer I can recall… And then Chuck goes bananas on the Debt… He goes on and on and on about it, so if you skipped it you might want to go back and see what bee got into his bonnet!

For What It’s Worth… Well, thanks to Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, I found this article about Industrial Production…  We DO have to make stuff that people use, right? Anyway, you can find the article here: America Don’t Need No “Independent” Fed

Or, here’s your snippet: “Talk about hiding in plain sight. Here is possibly the most important graph ever about the flagging state of the US economy and the utter failure of Washington’s constant efforts during the last two decades to “stimulate” improved outcomes.

To wit, the US industrial production index—which measures the sum of manufacturing, energy, mining, and utility output—marched straight uphill at a 3.3% annual rate between 1954 and 2007. Yet since then it has essentially plateaued, rising by just 0.10% per annum during the past 17 years.

That’s right. The growth rate of America’s industrial foundation has plunged by 97% since the pre-crisis peak in Q4 2007. And yet June’s industrial production index, which was up a small tad, gets headlined as a sign of economic strength. In fact, the longer-term chart below screams the very opposite.

After all, there is no logic that says an economy can remain healthy and prosperous that is increasingly based on educating a shrinking number of kids, feeding an expanding national waistline at fast food joints, and changing adult diapers among the soaring share of the population composed of octogenarians. At the end of the day, you actually have to make things in order for the population to pay for taking in each other’s laundry.

As it has happened, however, during the 48 months since June 2021 the industrial production index has been negative or flat nearly half the time on a month-over-month basis. For all practical purposes, the US industrial economy is just playing “mother may I”, advancing one step forward and the next step backwards month after month. And if that’s “strong” or even a sign of anything except decaying performance, we’d suggest the English language has lost all meaning.

As it happens, the disconnect becomes even more dramatic when you compare the production of goods since Q4 2007 with the constant dollar value of goods consumption (PCE) during the same period. That is to say, cumulative real consumption of goods (durable and non-durable) rose by 62% but domestic industrial output was up by only 1.4%!

To reprise, industrial production growth has essentially ground to a halt at 0.1% per year since 2007, notwithstanding a 13.3% per annum expansion of Fed credit. Self-evidently, all that high-powered central bank money was going somewhere, but clearly it was not into the production of goods on Main Street.”

Chuck again, yes , David Stockman has hit the nail on the head here… And as he says early on in the article, you should check out the graph of industrial production… I’m just saying… And as David says in the article, if this is what you call “strong” then we have to change the meaning of the world in the dictionary! 

Market Prices 8/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6511,  kiwi .5936, C$ .7252, euro 1.1675, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $ 1.2386, European Style: rand 17.61, krone 10.1804, SEK 9.5579, forint 338.81, zloty 3.6404, koruna 20.9591, RUB 80.49, yen 147.55, sing 1.2828, HKD 7.8177, INR 87.34, China 7.1790, peso 18.81, BRL 5.4299, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.00, Oil $63.50, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,335.00, Palladium $1,121.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,346

That’s it for today… I think the months of receiving the infusions are finally getting to me… Ever since last Thursday, I’ve slept a lot, and my stomach hasn’t stopped gurgling… My digestive system is shot! Shoot Rudy, I couldn’t even go to the local watering hole on Friday to meet my friends! UGH! Saturday, I manned up, and cooked some smashed burgers on the Brownstone for my darling granddaughter’s family birthday celebration… I had to cede to my oldest son, Andrew to finish for me as the heat finally got to me… What a wimp I was! I used to be able to stand at the grill in any kind of heat, because I loved doing it… But the 18 years of chemo have made me a wimp… UGH! My favorite guitarist, Carlos Santana, takes us to the finish line today with his song: Europa (Earth’s Cry, Heaven’s Smile) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies get sold on Wednesday…
• We have a new minister of lies for the BLS

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I know, I know, I told you there would be no Pennig on Thursday, but after a review of my schedule, I determined that I could get “something” to you today before I have to leave for the hospital for my infusion… The Cardinals found yet another way, to lose a game yesterday… Tsk, Tsk…  I sat outside to read yesterday, but had to have the umbrella up to provide shade as it was a hot one! I had to say to myself, of course it’s hot Chuck, it’s August in St. Louis! Gerry & The Pacemakers greet me this morning with their song: Ferry Cross The Mersey… Whenever that song comes on, my mind goes back to when son Alex was just a toddler, and I would rock him to sleep every night, while singing that song to him… 

Well, the dollar gained back the 2 index points it had lost in the overnight markets on Tuesday… So, Wednesday in the U.S. Session, the dollar was bought by a bit, not a lot, but by a bit… When I checked it last night, it has lost those 2 index points already.  Gold continued to come back from it last takedown by the short paper traders, and gained $3 yesterday to close at $ 3,357… Silver also continues to gain back lost ground last week, by gaining 16-cets to close at $38,57… The good witch, Glinda came out and told everyone to come out now that the Big Bad short paper traders have left…. for now… 

The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle for the day, while the 10-year treasury’s yield dropped some more ending the day with a 4.23%

You know, all this talk of rate cuts, and the dropping 10-year’s yield, is helping Gold as we go along here… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar didn’t move and stayed in the 1,201 handle of the BBDXY all night. So we start the day today at 1,201…  Gold is Seeing some selling this morning and is down $2 to start the day, while Silver is seeing some heavier selling and is down 39-cents to start the day…  The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle all night.. And the 10-year Treasury saw some more buying, which lowers the yield and it stats today with a 4.20% yield… 

Well, looky here… The U.S.  Debt crossed over to $37 Trillion in the past couple of days… A dear reader sent me a note about the $37 Trillion debt, and I thought to myself, ‘it was only a matter of when not if, it would reach $37 Trillion.. 

That means that we, as a country have added $1 Trillion to our debt in the last 5 months, and that’s how long it took to get to $36 Trillion too, just 5 months! It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger as it goes… 

I also saw that the monthly debt was HUGE… The U.S. Treasury reported that the Federal spending totaled $629.6 billion in July — 9.7% higher than July of last year.

Meanwhile, revenue totaled $338.5 billion — up only 2.5% from a year earlier despite a 290% leap in tariff revenue.

The result was a monthly deficit of $291.1 billion — up from $243.7

Thanks for the info from Dave Gonigam at the Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets… 

So, the monthly numbers just keep getting larger… That’s going the wrong way as far as I’m concerned… We, as a country, should be looking for way to cut spending, and not for ways to spend more!  The debt servicing on the growing debt is going to choke us…  I’m just saying…

And speaking of interest rate cuts, Bloomerg.com had this from the U.S. Treasury, “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to execute a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the central bank’s benchmark ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now.

“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” Bessent said in a television interview on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday. “If you look at any model” it suggests that “we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.”

Chuck again… I don’t know what “model” he’s using, but it sure isn’t the one that I use, which tells me that you don’t cut rates when inflation is still a problem and most likely to become an even bigger problem…

Did you see the nominated head of the BLS? He wants to change the reporting on jobs from monthly to quarterly…  I just have one question for him on that, is that so the BLS has more time to cook the books?  he also went on to admit that the current jobs reports are a mess….   Well, when you tell a lie, you then have to repeat it often, and embelish it quite a bit too!  And the BLS has been a pack of lies for a very long time! And never before where their collective feet held to the fire, until now… But this guy isn’t going to ride in on a white horse, and make the jobs reports better… In fact since he’s one of the POTUS’s pals, the reports will probably be even larger lies!  I’m just saying…

And in a heart felt mea culpa… on Monday I reported in the currency roundup that the Swiss franc was 1.03 something… I even had a dear reader question the price, but I responded to him that I had taken it from the Bloomberg currency prices page, so it must be right…  Only to find the next day it was back to 1.24 something… So, Bloomberg must have had it wrong, and I swallowed it hook, line and sinker… Well, that won’t happen again! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was barren, with just some Fed Heads speaking… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for a Thursday, and that’s about it for today. Tomorrow we’ll see the July Retail Sales print… The BHI indicates that it will be better than the average Bear… And then Capacity Utiliazation, and Industrial Production for July will also print tomorrow…

To recap… The dollar staged a mini-rally yesterday in the U.S. after getting sold overseas the previous night.  All this talk of rate cuts, is really underpinning Gold right now… And then you add In the fact that bond yields are dropping…  That too, helps Gold…  Well, it was a matter of when not if, we passed by $37 Trillion in debt… And our monthly budgets are faring too well either!  And finally, Scott Bessent calls for 150 Basis Points of rate cuts!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article last night while perusing the internet. It’s about how the POTUS really came unglued when Lola, I mean Goldman Sachs had this to say about tariffs. And it can be found here: As Trump berates Goldman, economists agree higher tariff inflation coming

Or, here’s your snippet: “Goldman Sachs is taking the heat for its call that heavier tariff-induced consumer inflation is ahead, but it’s far from alone in that view among its Wall Street brethren.

Despite investors’ embrace of Tuesday’s fairly benign consumer price index report, economists expect that the biggest impact to inflation is yet to come.

With pre-tariff inventories rolling off, effective tariff rates climbing higher and companies less willing to absorb higher costs from the duties, the general feeling is that consumers are increasingly going to feel the bite through the rest of the year.

“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty around the degree of pass-through to consumer prices, given that this year’s tariff increases are well larger than anything in the post-war US experience.”

Chuck Again…  and THAT is the reason the FOMC has kept interest rates steady Eddie…   For they too know what the tariffs are going to do… 

Market Prices 8/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .5949, C$ .7245, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $ 1.2417, European Style: rand 17.77, krone 10.1689, SEK 9.5630, forint 337.84, zloty 3.6432, koruna 20.9318, RUB 79.65, yen 146.64, sing 1.2517, HKD 7.8426, INR 87.55, China 7.1704, peso 18.68, BRL 5.3976, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $62.93, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $38.18, Platinum $1,361.00, Palladium $1,156.00, Copper $4.54, and Gold… $3.355

That’s it for today… Well, the mighty Yankees come to town tomorrow night for a weekend series with my beloved Cardinals… Both teams have really struggled since we turned the calendar to July… I want to apologize for all the typos in yesterday’s Pfennig… I usually try to scan it over before sending it out, but not yesterday, and then when I did scan it, all the typos showed up like a credit card bill after a spending spree! Tomorrow is 8/15… That was the day each year that we began summer football practices… 2 practices a day… Sometimes we wouldn’t even go home between the practices, and would take naps on the bleachers! Ahhhh…. those were the days! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with a song from my favorite album Seventh Sojourn: Isn’t Life Strange… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals make a comeback
• The BOE cuts rates!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did you miss me? I missed writing, some days that is… I had a very relaxing and fun vacation with Adrew, Rachel, Braden and Evie… The Trade Deadline came and went, and my beloved Cardinals did nothing to improve their team this year, so it looks as though they’ve waved the white flag in 2025… UGH!  Sammy Hagar greets me this morning with his song: Turn Up The Music… it’s a live version so it has me geared up this morning… 

Well, while I was away, the dollar had a mini-rally, but as the days of my vacation grew near, the mini-rally began to fade… At first, the dollar rallied when it was believed that the tariffs the POTUS had announced for some countries would be replaced by new trade agreements… But soon, it was realized that new Trade Agreement or not, the tariffs were still in place, maybe not as high of tariffs, but still in place nonetheless… 

Gold & Silver saw another engineered takedown by the short paper traders, and both have slowly worked their way back in the highlight… 

The dollar ended the week last Friday, at 1,204…  that was after the BBDXY reached 1,221 on 7/28… So, as you can see the dollar’s mini-rally is fading quickly…   Gold ended the week last week at $3,396, and for a brief time on Friday last week it traded over $3,400… Silver ended the week at $33.96… 

It was discussed last week that the POTUS may place tariffs on Gold bars coming into the U.S.  The last time he said he would do that, it caused a HUGE transfer from London to New York, as dealers tried to get ahead of the tariffs… I think this is a case of fool me once… but not twice, as there has been no HUGE transfer taking place this time. 

Or… maybe these guys are all from Missouri and will have to be shown! I know, I know, that can’t be the case, I was just throwing it out there for fun! 

The price of Oil is seeing a lack of demand as the summer driving season comes to a close… And the price of Oil end the week trading with a $63 handle…  And as we draw closer the next FOMC meeting the calls for a rate cut will grow louder and louder, and that has the yields on bonds dropping with the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 4.27%

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar has been bought a bit as the BBDXY is up 2 index points to start our day/ week. And I guess I shouldn’t have talked to glowingly about Gold above and its comeback, because overnight and in the early trading Gold is down $41 to start the day/ week! I can’t find anything on the newswires to explain this sell off, so… we’ll have to put this down as yet another engineered takedown… I guess the powers that be didn’t like Gold flexing its muscles at $3,400…  Silve is also getting sold this morning and is down 58-cents to start our day/ week. 

I have been away for two weeks, and nothing’s changed with the problems of the U.S. in fact, they may be worse, in that the latest auction of Treasuries went sour, and the primaries had to step in and sup up the unsold bonds…  

Circling back to Gold… I think that that the tariffs applied to Gold bars, will do nothing but give the Gold bugs reason to take Gold higher, and so, I think that thought has crossed the short paper traders, and that’s why they’ve attacked Gold like they have this morning…  For what that’s worth, it’s just my Pfennig’s worth…

And it gives those among you and anyone else that has twiddled their thumbs and procrastinated long enough to buy Gold at a cheaper price today… A Bue Light special if you will… 

I came across this info while out… You will recall me telling you several times in the last couple of years that this is a deficit in Silver production…  But now… I have the numbers! Check this out:  The deficit in Silver production in 2024 was:  117 million ounces versus about 148 million ounces, in 2023. But if you add in the net investment into physical silver and then net investment into Silver ETFs, then you’re looking at the third highest silver deficit that we have on record.

In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, he posted this info:  “The Silver short position is now down to a still ugly 22,841 contracts…from the 32,888 contracts short position they held in last Friday’s COT Report — and now even further below the obscene 76,723 contracts they were short back on February 14. – Ed Steer www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

So, if you take the fact that there is a HUGE deficit in Silver production and then add in the fact that the number of short contracts in silver are getting smaller, I think this all leads to a HUGE rally for Silver is coming…  I truly see Silver getting to $40 before we turn the calendar on this year, and from there, $50 will be its next stop… 

The Bank of England (BOE) cut rates by 25 Basis Points (1/4%) last week, citing a fall in inflation… Maybe the U.K. Gets real Bonafide true inflation numbers?  I would certainly hope that at least one country doesn’t have their hands in the cookie jar all the time! 

The currencies, as a whole, have begun to fight back and regain ground that was lost during the dollar’s goosing… 

And as to Gold… I received this from the good folks at GATA: “In the early hours of trading today, global markets were shaken by the announcement by the Trump administration of a 39% tariff on imported gold bars weighing 100 ounces or more. U.S. December gold futures reached an all-time high price of $3,534.10 per ounce shortly after the declaration was made.

This sudden move injected uncertainty into the bullion market, unsettling dealers, refiners, and institutional investors trading in larger “exchange delivery” formats. While gold is rarely targeted by protectionist measures — unlike base metals, agriculture, or manufactured goods — this decision warrants close attention, both for its immediate market impact and potential implications for future monetary policy.”

My friends at the FXSTREET posted an article that was quoting a Fed Head… Let’s listen in: “his summer, we’ve started seeing cracks in the U.S. economic armor, including a significant weakening in the jobs market that could signal tough times ahead for many American workers.

While low at 4.2%, the unemployment rate is threatening to break out to a new cycle high, and layoffs are up significantly from one year ago.

This dynamic could accelerate a growing divide in the U.S. economy, which Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack labels a “two-speed” economy.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. lead.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack says there’s a “two-speed” economy.

The haves and have-nots in the U.S. economy

Hammack is the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s CEO, heading one of 12 regional Reserve Banks in the Fed’s Reserve System. She took over the role in August 2024.

The former cohead of global financing at Goldman Sachs and member of Goldman’s management committee was formerly the global head of short-term macro trading and repo trading, so she knows a thing or two about the markets and economy.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. lead.

Jobs report shocker resets Fed interest rate cut bets

Read More

Unfortunately, she sees a glaring and growing problem — an economy increasingly separating the haves from the have-nots.

In an interview with CBS News, Hammack said that means we’re in a “two-speed” economy, where the highest income earners are doing much better than everyone else.”

Chuck again… I know it was more like a FWIW article, but since the Pfennig will be hit-n-miss this week (I’ll explain in a bit) I thought I would load you up! 

And this will round out the letter today, as it is being reported that the Indian Central Bank has been selling dollars and buying rupees to help the rupee…  This is troubling news, in that this is not a coordinated intervention with several Central Banks partaking.  And why is that? Because as I’ve explained many times in the past, the markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank, and if the markets want the rupee to be weak, it my get a brief reprieve from the intervention, but then it will return to the underlying weakness…  I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard while I was gone, had the July Jobs Jamboree, which turned out to be very disappointing… The BLS said that 73,000 jobs were created in July… And that was after they had decided to add 257,000 jobs after the surveys were received… Which, if you used real math, and not the kind the Gov’t uses… it would mean that the economy lost 184,00 jobs in July… Another interesting piece of data while I was gone, was the ISM (manufacturing index), which fell from 48.7 to 48%, that’s going the wrong way folks…  And finally while I was away, the FOMC left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, which really ticked off the POTUS… I’m just saying… 

And on top of that May and June’s jobs numbers were revised downward… Big Time!  And then to add frosting to the cake, the POTUS fired the head of the BLS… 

I came across this note from MarketWatch.com while gone, and copied it and saved it for today… “An increasing number of borrowers are falling behind on both their student-debt and mortgage payments — a development that’s worrying economists about the state of the housing sector and the broader U.S. economy.

Student-loan delinquencies are rising sharply, as are delinquencies on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

Chuck again… Tapped out? Well, I guess we’ll get a better picture of that chance this coming Friday, when Retail Sales are printed… Not that Retail Sales are the “everything” when it comes to consumer’s disposable income, and IT IS A GOVERNMENT REPORT, we must aways keep those things in mind… 

To Recap… Chuck’s back, for a brief time that is this week… And during his absence the dollar rallied and then began to get sold again, Gold got sold and then began to come back, until this morning that is… The head of the BLS is gone… because he didn’t cook the books enough for the POTUS…  Treasuries are having a rough go of it at the auctions, and the BOE cut rates… 

For What It’s Worth… I read this email while on vacation and flagged it so I could come back to it for the FWIW article when I returned… This is how our value of the dollar has deteriorated through the years, and it can be found here: 2021 Meme Reveals the Relentless Devaluation of Your Money

Or, here’s your snippet: “I ran across a 2021 meme the other day that vividly illustrates just how quickly the government is destroying your money.

The meme points out that in 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25, or five quarters. That sounds really low, but keep in mind that before 1965, quarters were 90 percent silver. In 2021, the melt value of those five quarters was $23.34.

In other words, the five quarters a minimum wage worker earned in an hour in 1964 had $23.34 in purchasing power in 2021. There’s your “living wage.”

That’s pretty staggering in and of itself, but now fast forward a few years. As of today, the melt value of those five quarters is $34.45.

In other words, the value (purchasing power) of those five quarters has increased by another 47.6 percent in just three and a half years!

This reflects the relentless devaluation of U.S. money.

What Happened to Our Money?

Under the Coinage Act signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965, the U.S. Treasury removed all of the silver from dimes, quarters, and half-dollars. Instead, the government mints coins from “composites, with faces of the same alloy used in our 5-cent piece that is bonded to a core of pure copper.”

You will sometimes hear coins minted before 1965 referred to as “junk silver.”

In reality, we should call modern American coins junk.

Johnson promised that removing silver would have no impact on the value of U.S. coinage, asserting that “[The] Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin.”

You’ll be shocked to learn he was lying.

Richard Nixon told a similar fib when he severed the last tie between the U.S. dollar and gold. When he announced the closing of the gold window, Nixon said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”

As we all know, that’s not what happened. The dollar buys a fraction of what it did in 1971, and U.S. quarters minted after 1965 are virtually worthless.

The meme tells the story. We don’t have a wage problem in the U.S.  We have a money problem. And it is rapidly getting worse.

This is why you don’t want to hold fiat currency for any amount of time. It is losing value minute by minute. You need real money – gold and silver.”

Chuck Again… Good article in my humble country boy opinion!  And I included the entire article for the snippet, because it was so good… 

Market Prices August 11, 2025: American Style: A$ .6511, kiwi .5931, C$ .7279, euro 1.1631, sterling 1.3431, Swiss $1.0361, European Style: rand 17.6333, krone 10.2397, SEK 9.6151, forint 340.25, zloty 3.4183, koruna 21.0534, RUB 79.66, yen 147.88, sing 1.2859, HKD 7.8499, INR 87.66, China 7.1841, peso 18.60, BRL 5.3246, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.39, Oil $64.17, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $37.74, Platinum $1,313.00, Palladium $1,414.00, Copper $4.43, and Gold… $3,355

That’s it for today… So, did you miss me? Well, I missed writing to you! Our last weekend down here I got to see the full moon rise over the ocean, it’s such a beautiful event! Ok, this week, no Pfennig tomorrow, but then I’m back on Wednesday, but then no Pfennig on Thursday because it’s infusion day… Next week, back to normal…  While I was away, my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace turned 18… She’s a senior in H.S. This year, and next year she’ll go away to college…  (Where have the years gone?)  When I left, I said that my beloved Cardinals were circling the bowl… But in the last week they’ve taken 2of 3 from both the Dodgers and Cubs… So, still circling but keeping their heads above water… The Cyrkle takes us to the finish line today with their song: Red Rubber Ball (The Cyrkle was the opining band for the Beatles!)  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

• the dollar continued to get sold on Wednesday
• Trade deal with Japan weighs on Gold & Silver

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, my beloved Cardinals are definitely circling the bowl now… They lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies! Time to back up the truck and load up the players that will be traded next week… The team comes home now to play the red-hot Padres… UGH!  Shame on the GM for assembling this team without pitching depth… It was a hot one yesterday, I tried to sit out to read, and only made it for 30 minutes… Outkast greets me this morning with Duane’s song: Hey Ya!

The dollar continued to get sold in the U.S. yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points to 1,192.. The euro really sprang upward and now looks like it wants to take out the 1.18 figure.  Bloomberg.com had an article yesterday that said that the dollar’s bottom isn’t in yet, as options are indicating a further decline.  You know the longer the Fed Heads delay the rate cut (now on the docket for Sept), the more chance that it will be case of sell the rumor (of a rate cut) and buy the fact… Which would mean the dollar would stop getting sold when the FOMC gets around to cutting rates.  I don’t see that happening, but I’m just putting it out there to think about…

The Fed Heads like to say that they do NOT like to surprise the markets… So, keeping that in mind, next week’s FOMC meeting will be a non-event… .I’m just saying…

Gold & Silver ran into the short paper traders and some profit taking yesterday… Gold lost $48 and fell back under the $3,400 figure, and Silver held onto the $39 handle after losing just 5-cents on the day. Gold closed at $3,387, and Silver closed at $39.30…  After yesterday’s engineered takedown of Gold, it was good to read a sane person’s viewpoint… Let’s go there right now!

And here’s some good advice from good friend, Rick Checkan of ASI: “Treasury yields and U.S. dollar dip while gold and silver rise. With favorable conditions continuing to set up for another precious metals rally in the second half of the year, investors would be wise to take advantage of current levels before they continue to rise. Especially now, as premiums are still at extreme lows since demand on the retail bullion market has yet to catch up.” – Rich Checkan

You can find Rich and his daily messages at www.assetstragegies.com

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day with a $65 handle… And the 10-year Treasury is range trading right now, and ended yesterday with a 4.38% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar gained some traction with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points… It seems that the markets / Wall Street, etal, are becoming more confident with every trade deal that gets done… Yesterday, it was a deal with Japan, thus curtailing the hefty tariffs they would have incurred if not negotiating a better deal. 

Gold is starting the day today down $21, and Silver is down 20-cents… I think the confidence the markets are getting from the trade deals being announced is weighing on Gold & Silver… What? Me Worry? (Alfred E. Neuman) After all the hoopla of signing trade deals ends, the other items fueling Gold & Silver previously… Yes, they are still there, so don’t worry, be happy (Marley) 

The price of Oil remained in the $65 handle last night, and the 10-year saw some selling again, with the yield rising to 4.80%… 

Well, I guess the POTUS had grown tired of dissing the Fed Chairman, and has sent his right-hand man, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent to do the dirty work… Yesterday, Bessent was speaking and calling for an examination of the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel…  This from Reuters.com ” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve’s vital independence on monetary policy is threatened by its “mandate creep” into non-policy areas and he called on the U.S. central bank to conduct an exhaustive review of those operations.

The Fed’s autonomy “is threatened by persistent mandate creep into areas beyond its core mission, provoking justifiable criticism that unnecessarily casts a cloud over the Fed’s valuable independence on monetary policy,” Bessent said in a post on X.”

It is my opinion that these two linchpins will get together and get the interest rate setting job back to the Treasury… And then the POTUS can direct his “yes-man” in the direction he wants… Which is a cheaper dollar, and lower interest rates…  And now Powell has another foe… Speaker Johnson said that ‘he’s become disenchanted  with Powell” Come one, come all to get in line to diss the Fed Chief!

Ok, I’ve got to go to something else this morning, this talk has got me riled up! 

Sneaking under the wire, the POTUS announced a 15% tariff / trade deal with Japan…  That’s huge folks… Now if he could just work his magic on China… 

And I could get all caught up in the Epstein stuff, but I won’t… All I’ll say is that this a battle of words, and most of them are lies (Pink Floyd)

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share this old Irish Proverb with you.. “A Good Laugh and a long sleep are the two best cures for anything”   Think about that and incorporate it being… It’ll do you good! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Existing Home Sales, and they fell from the previous month’s figure… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  With all the layoffs being reported around the country, I see this number rising… Tomorrow, while I’m packing for my trip, we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods Orders… You might recall me telling you last month when this data printed a blowout number, that it was all down with smoke and mirrors, and this month’s report should go back to being negative… 

To recap… The dollar continues to get sold, but Gold ran into the short paper traders and profit taking yesterday, UGH! No worries, just providing a cheaper price for buying… I’m just saying… Gold couldn’t hold the $3,400 figure, but it won’t take it long to revisit it… Again I’m just saying… Rich Checkan visits us in the Pfennig today… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, since this is the last FWIW for the next two weeks, I thought it would be a good one, but then I always have good ones, right? HA! This article is about not only Central Banks are buying Gold but also Sovereign Wealth Funds and it can be found here: Move over, central banks: Sovereign wealth funds are also buying tonnes of gold | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold is once again at the center of global financial strategy—not just for central banks, but for sovereign wealth funds looking to hedge risks and preserve value.

Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst for EMEA at the World Gold Council, reported in a social media post on Wednesday that the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) bought 16 Tonnes of gold during the second quarter.

“This lifts its total H1 net purchases to 35 Tonnes and total gold holdings to 181 Tonnes (almost 29% of its total portfolio),” he said.

According to its investment policy, the sovereign wealth fund has reached its maximum allowable position in the precious metal.

SOFAZ has been extremely active in the gold market, with its purchases outpacing most central bank activity so far this year.

Only Poland has bought more gold in the first half of the year than SOFAZ, increasing its official reserves by 67.2 Tonnes as of May.

While the People’s Bank of China has been actively buying gold for nine consecutive months, its purchases in the first half of the year totaled 16.9 Tonnes as of May.”

Chuck Again… well, all good things come to an end, right? When will this hoarding of Gold by the Central banks end? The rising price of Gold doesn’t seem to bother them too much, as they just keep buying! So, to answer my own question, I don’t think it will end in the near future… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/24/2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .6044, C$ 7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $1.2584, European Style: rand 17.6107, krone 10.1046, SEK 9.4314, forint 338.57, zloty 3.6226, koruna 20.9053, RUB 79.37, yen 146.57, sing 1.2774, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.40, China 7.1586, peso 18.54, BRL 5.5201, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 97.38, Oil $65.80, 10-year 4.80%, Silver $39.10, Platinum $ 1,411.00, Palladium $1,280, Copper $5.90, and Gold… $3,366

That’s it for today, and the next two weeks… I know, I know, I shouldn’t take such long vacations, but I AM RETIRED! So, go to the website: www.dailypfennig.com  and read some archives that should hold you over until I return! Lunch with my classmates today, Whoopee! And then we get into the dog days of Summer, which is August… I’m looking forward to spendng time with Son Andrew, and his family of Rachel, Braden and Evie, we always seem to have a good time… Speaking of Rachel… Astrud Gilberto and the great Stan Getz takes us to the finish line today with their great song: The Girl From Ipanema… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and will remember to be Good To Yourself, for the next two week, as I won’t be here to remind you! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally again on Tuesday
• Poor, poor, pitiful, Powell…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, give them the chance and my beloved Cardinals will play down to their competition… They lost last night to the Rockies… Yes, I said the Rockies, a team that has only won 26 games so far this season, of which one of their wins is against the Cardinals! UGH! I had to deal with my streaming company all night last night, but finally go it straightened out! UGH! King Crimson greets me this morning with their classic rock song: In The Court of the Crimson King…  I love this song!

Well, the dollar continued to get sold yesterday with the BBDXY posting a 4-index point loss and close in the U.S. at 1,196… The euro moved higher in the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies gained some ground on the dollar…  Yesterday I went through a couple of the laundry list of items that are weighing down the dollar, but most of all is this question that should be on the minds of everyone… “The Current Debt is $37 Trillion, and will keep going higher… How will we finance that debt when all the participants at the auction window don’t show up? 

I wouldn’t be surprised if an emergency bil went through congress that requires all investments in 401k’s be in Treasuries…   Now that’s just something that I dreamed up, it’s not on the docket, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see there one day in the future… 

Well, didn’t I say yesterday that the negatives in Gold & Silver would probably turn around and be positive figures?  And guess what Gold & Silver did yesterday? They turned those negative figures in price to positive ones, just like I thought they would!  Gold gained $35 to close at $3,432, and Silver gained 36-cents to close at $39.35… That’s back to a 14-year high for Silver, and quite frankly if the short paper traders hadn’t genuflected on the news of a 14-year high last week, we would be well into the $40 handle this week… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw some buying, from those up-in-the-sky folks that are still leaving a light on for a rate cut next week… The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day at 4.36%… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar slipped another index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,196…  I’ve been surprised by the overnight markets not picking up the ball and running with it the last two sessions, as the dollar has gotten sold in the U.S. and Gold & Silver have rallied, but then the foreigners don’t seem to want to participate… Hmmm… Oh well, que sera, sera, eh?  

The price of Gold has slipped a mere $3 to start our day today, and Silver is up 9-cents…  These too are figures that could easily be turned around, so watch for that to take place today… Because there will be more Fed Heads speaking and talking about the need for a rate cut… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight, and trades this morning in a $64 handle… And the 10-year Treasury didn’t move overnight, so it starts today with a 4.36% yield.  I read this morning that Russia had increased their physical Gold shipments to China by 80% or $1 Billion worth… These two are getting really chummy, chummy, don’t you think? I do… and I don’t like it one iota!  That scares the bejeebers out of me for sure!

Well, poor, poor, pitiful Powell.. Everyone’s ganging up on him these days… Even his own brothers in arms (Dire Staits) at the Eccles Bldg. Are starting to voice their preference to cut rates…  if I were Powell, I would say, “OK, go ahead and cut rates while inflation is still above our target and money supply is growing by leaps and bounds, and I will say, neener, neener, I told you not to cut yet!”

I know that I’ve explained market trends to you before, so I won’t get into that too much now, only to remind you that the dollar has seen a weak, then strong, then weak, then strong, trends in the past, and I believe we have just seen the ending of the strong trend for the dollar that has been in place since the debts of the Club Med were exposed, and the Eurozone as whole had to deal with it, causing the main offset to the dollar to get sold, and thus began the strong dollar trend that went further than any previous trend, and only because the U.S. seemed to have weathered the storm of 2007, and then COVID…  But those things are in our rear-view mirror now, and that’s why I believe it’s time for a long-term weak dollar trend to begin… 

It all started when the U.S. weaponized the dollar a few years ago now, and froze the Russian assets and deposits…  Every country in the world had a coming to Jesus realization that if that could happen to Russia, the U.S. wouldn’t think twice about doing it to us… And that triggered the mass buying of physical Gold and selling of dollars by Central banks around the world.  

Yes it’s taken the dollar bugs a while now to come around to thinking that maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know (Andujar)  But now, the writing is on the wall for the dollar bugs, and they had better know how to read!

We, as Americans need to own some dollars… but it has long been my mantra to say that we need dollars, for gas, groceries and giggles, and that’s it! 

And on a sidebar here… Did you know that market trends go as far back as 2,000 BC? I was told that by a sage trader many years ago… So long ago that the Dead Sea wasn’t even sick yet! 

In Japan, the revolving door PM policy is set to see another new PM next month.. Mr. Ishibi Japan’s current PM saw his majority in the house get beaten and a new majority that sure doesn’t see things Ishibi’s way, has now taken over, and from the looks and sounds of it, the current PM’s place isn’t long for this Gov’t…  I’ve told you time and time and again through the years that Japan is a basket case… And will continue to be one for years to come…  That’s why I wouldn’t touch Japanese yen with YOUR 10-foot pole! 

The U.S Data Cupboard has the Existing Home Sales that I erroneously thought was going to print yesterday… Instead, the Cupboard was bare yesterday, and has a non-market moving print today… 

To recap… I would suspect after two HUGE move by Gold & Silver the last two trading sessions, that we could begin to see some profit taking… From those that still think that Gold & Silver are commodities that are there to trade like stocks… UGH! The dollar is still getting sold

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article while perusing Google, and thought it could very well by FWIW worthy… This is an article about things to look for from the FOMC at next week’s meeting… and it can be found here: “3 Things To Watch For In The Fed’s July Interest Rate Decision

Or, here’s your snippet:”The Federal Open Market Committee will set short-term interest rates next Wednesday, July 30.

The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the year so far, and markets do not expect an interest rate cut in July. However, a rate cut may be reasonably likely at the conclusion of the next meeting on Sept. 17. That’s according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures the expectations of fixed income markets.

Three topics are likely to be the focus of markets at the meeting.

The first is any response from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the repeated pressure and criticism that President Trump and his administration has directed at Powell. In prior meetings Powell has been terse in his responses to questions on the topic, pointing out that he can’t legally be removed as Fed chair without cause but refusing to be publicly drawn on Trump’s comments.

The other things to watch for will be hints of a September cut and whether there is any dissent within the open market committee on the policy decision.

for now, markets view a September interest rate cut as more likely than not. The FOMC generally doesn’t try to surprise markets, so if a September cut is coming there may be clues either in the July statement or the accompanying news conference.

June’s Consumer Price Index inflation report did show some potential signs of tariff-related inflation in certain categories, which could concern the FOMC. Nonetheless, since February inflation has generally eased and the job market has held up well for 2025 on the most recent reports. FOMC officials have expressed the view that tariffs might raise prices and slow growth, but they are awaiting data. That issue may be resolved one way or the other in the coming months. So far, the FOMC’s position has essentially been to wait and see, especially as the jobs market has held up well on recent reports.”

Chuck again…  As usual, this article is much longer, so if you can carve out some extra time to read it in its entirety, then click the link above and go for it! 

Market Prices 7/23/2025: American Style: A$.6600, kiwi .6046, C$ .7365, euro 1.1729, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2602, European Style: rand 17.5418, krone 10.0870, SEK 9.5102, forint 340.22, zloty 3.6287, koruna 21.6851, RUB 78.54, yen 147.21, sing 1.2766, HKD 7.8500, INR 86.47, China 7.1604, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5652, BBDXY 1,196, Dollar Index 97.42, Oil $ 64.89, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $39.44, Platinum $1,448.00, Palladium $1,258.00, Copper $5.82, and Gold… $3,429

That’s it for today… Tomorrow, I’m meeting my classmates for lunch… This is a small group of people that were very good friends back in the day…  One of my friends I’ve known since kindergarten… 1960… There’s nothing on the docket for this weekend, so I’ll be chillin and grillin… And trying not to use as much electricity as I usually do! I leave for my winter home, in the summer on Sunday… I love it down in the South, and see myself living there more than just the 3 months of winter, and various short trips in the future… The pain I told you I woke up with on Monday, has finally started to abate… YAHOO!  My all-time favorite Dooby Bros song takes us to the finish line today playing : South City Midnight Lady…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, reduce your electricity usage, and Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• trade tensions weigh on the dollar…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were thrown a life saver yesterday, as they played the Rockies, the worst record team in baseball… The team needs to sweep this team they’re playing, and come back home… where they DO play better baseball… It was a decent day here yesterday, and we went to dinner with our good friends, Toni and Duane… I was supposed to receive my two new books yesterday, but they were delayed… UGH!  The Rev. Al Green greets me this morning with his song: Love And Happiness.. 

The dollar continued what it started late last week, and that his to get sold… The BBDXY lost 3 index points yesterday. The currencies all breathed a sigh of relief, that the dollar’s rally was brief… Gold was up and nearly traded above the $3,400 figure to end the day at $3,397, up $50 on the day… And Silver tried to get back to its 14-year high, but the short paper traders cut Silver’s rally off at $38.99, up 88-cents on the day… I have something very interesting for you in the FWIW section today on Silver, so I doubt you’ll want to miss that! 

Like I told you yesterday, the sentiment has changed on Wall Street, and risk assets are back on the buying table… In keeping that thought in mind, the price of Oil drifted yesterday, and ended the day at $66.61…  I also read last night that the bond boys are coming back around to thinking that long term inflation is on the board again, and now they need to show it by getting the yield moving upward again. The 10-year Treasury ended yesterday with a 4.37% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar just kind of drifted about, with the BBDXY staying at 1,200, but the euro climbing back over the 1.17 figure… The rest of the currencies are looking good too, as we start our day. 

The price of Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning and is down $9 to start the day, and Silver is playing follow the leader and is down 5-cents to start the day. After yesterday’s major move upward, these two needed to take a breather, and that’s just what they are doing. As long as the short paper traders don’t show up and begin to take their pound of flesh again, Gold & Silver should weather the day, and most likely will turn the negatives to positives… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained in the $66 handle overnight… And the 10-year Treasury trades with a 4.39% yield this morning. Maybe the bond boys got my message? Ha! I doubt that seriously! 

Speaking of Oil, that brings me to the Petrol Currencies, that includes: rubles, sterling, krone, loonies, rand and pesos, to name a few… These Petrol Currencies are stuck in a rut with the price of oil range trading these days… A currency like the Norwegian krone is influenced by not only the price of Oil, but also the euro… So, when the price of Oil is stuck in a rut like it is now, the rise in the euro helps the krone to inch higher VS the dollar…  

The underlying trend is for a weaker dollar… And it will get lower come hell or high water… In that I mean, the dollar has a laundry list of items stacked up against it right now, and should keep the dollar down, unless the PPT comes along and intervenes by buying dollars. We haven’t seen much from the PPT in recent times, and they have me wondering if we should put their picture on a milk carton? Not that I ever want to see them again, just pointing out that they’re missing… And that’s a good thing in my book! 

One of the things weighing on the dollar right now Is the clear as mud trade situation… Trade tensions are weighing heavily on the dollar, and lifting the price of Gold… We brought these trade tensions on ourselves, folks, so there’s no one to blame except we the people… I’m just saying…

And I found this on Zerohedge.com “Another wave of closures and layoffs has hit workers and companies tied to commercial transportation, manufacturing, lumber production, distribution and logistics across the U.S.

Over the past several weeks, there have been 4,137 job cuts announced, according to media reports and Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices.”

Chuck again… bet you didn’t hear that news on the 5 o’clock news did you?  Yet another item to add to the stack of problems for the dollar… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Leading Indicators for June, and I said they would be negative, and they were negative by -.3%…  Another item for the dollar weakness check list… 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has the Existing Home Sales… not a market moving  piece of data… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Monday, and throughout Monday night it drifted, and starts today trading in the same clothes as yesterday’s close 1,200…  Gold & Silver had good days yesterday but are seeing some small profit taking this morning.  Chuck talks about the Petrol Currencies, and layoffs along with trade tensions, not a good pair for the dollar… 

For What It’s Worth… This article I came across is about how the writer believes that Silver is the Canary in the Coal mine… And it can be found here: Silver — The System’s Canary – Charts and Parts

Or, here’s your snippet: “THE MOOD

Everything in silver is getting so, so stretched.

It’s hard to imagine this game going on much longer.

Harder still to imagine what happens when it ends.

This isn’t just about silver.

It’s about fragility, exposure, and cracks in a system designed to hold — until it can’t.

THE SIGNAL CLUSTER

In the past few weeks, a rare alignment hit the silver market:

Record short positions by swap dealers — offsetting natural demand

SLV borrow rates spike — shorts scrambling

Silver lease rates spike — users paying up for physical

COMEX warehouse stock explodes by +200M oz — futures buyers taking delivery

This is not normal. It’s pressure.

Coordinated or not, it’s happening.

And it all points in one direction: stress.

THE HEIST BLUEPRINT

If you read Silver Heist, none of this should surprise you.

We laid out the script — paper vs. physical, naked shorts, the shell game.

The paper market runs on illusion.

The physical market demands settlement.

That moment — when illusion meets delivery — is when systems must adapt.

ZOOM OUT

The takeaway isn’t just about silver.

It’s a case study in how systems mask fragility — until delivery day arrives.

First comes the mispricing.

Then the manipulation.

Finally, the reveal – the truth reclaims the narrative.

The pressure valve won’t hold forever – and change will follow.”

Chuck again… This article is full of charts to illustrate his points, of which I think he does a very good job of…  Check it out!

Market Prices 7/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6517, kiwi .5963, C$ .7306, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.6093, krone 10.1660, SEK 9.5852, forint 342.22, zloty 3.6375, koruna 21.0428, RUB 78.51, yen 147.41, sing 1.2815, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.37, China 7.1756, peso 18.61, BRL 5.5673, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $38.92, Platinum $1,450.00, Palladium $1,274.00, Copper $5.66, and Gold… $3,388

That’s it for today…  I received my RSV vaccine yesterday… My PCP requested that I get one since I’ve caught so many colds that turned into disaster…  Well, I sure hope it works, not that I think I’m now immune to germs… I still need to watch where I go, who I see, and what I do…  And I’ll be around little Evie for two weeks while on vacation, and she’s normally kryptonite for me… But she’s so cute! And when she wants to give me hug, I can’t resist! See? I’m an old softie!  The St. Louis band, Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Blue Mist… I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday today, and once again, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar loses its grip late last week…
• The sentiment on Wall Street has changed again!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals are in the dumpster, they lost 3 straight to the snakes out in Arizona right out of the All-Star Break… They are in deep dookie, and with the trade deadline next week, I doubt seriously that they will make a move to improve the team… They didn’t make any moves in the offseason, why would they make them now? It was a grand time on Friday night with my good friends at our local watering hole, and Saturday, I paid the price with an upset stomach all day… UGH!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their big 70’s song: Summer Breeze

The dollar’s mini-rally ended late last week, and the BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday to end the week at 1,203… I think it was a case of traders thinking they had gone too far, too fast, and correcting…   There was nothing late last week in the data that would have been a “buy” signal for the dollar, so there was that…  Gold began to put together a nice rally on Thursday, and ended the week on Friday up $24 since Thursday morning, and close at $3,347… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and ended the week on Friday up 33-cents, and close at $38.11 

The euro climbed back over the 1.16 handle to end the week, and the rest of the currencies all gained a bit here and there VS the dollar… 

Speaking of the euro… Did you hear that Morgan Stanley researchers had to say about the euro? Well, now you will! ” Morgan Stanley predicted that the euro will continue climbing toward $1.30 and beyond — a roughly 12.1% rise from its current level”

WOW! Now that’s going out on a limb! You’ve never seen me out that far on a limb,  have you? But, if the dollar is in a long-term weak trend, then I wouldn’t doubt that the euro will be able to reach that level…  See? My venture out on the limb is a calculated move, predicated on the dollar cooperating… 

The price of Oil climbed back above the $67 handle and that’s where it ended the week, while the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield drop a bit to end the week with a 4.42% yield… 

Last week I allowed my youngest son to swap cars with me as he needed to get new tires on his truck and had to just drop it off at the shop… That was all well and good until I got in my car on Thursday morning to go to the hospital and noticed that my gas light was on and I was about out of gas!  I went through all that to tell you that the price of gas hasn’t seen much of a drop!   

In the overnight markets last night…  the selling in the dollar that began late last week, continued throughout the night, but at a slower pace… The BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,202… The currencies all look a little perkier this morning, with the dollar bugs not too confident in owning dollars at this point. Gold is up $25 to start our day/ week today to start… And Silver is up 24-cents…  

I think that Wall Street is changing their sentiment again, and think the two Fed Heads, one current, and on former are speaking for the whole FMOC, and a rate cut is coming… Maybe not next week, but in Sept.  The Jobs Jamboree next week will hold the hammer, and it will be searching for a nail to drive home the rate cut in Sept… 

And that change of sentiment has a lot to do with Gold back on the rally tracks… All that dollar talk about the economy doing just fine, really suck in the craw of Gold, but that’s changed again, so que sera, sera…   I’ve got the stuff about the Fed Heads later in the letter this morning… 

Well, did you hear what the Bank of England (BOE) is doing these days? They are scrutinizing the banks they oversea and checking for overexposure to the dollar…  Wait, What?  Yes, here’s Reuters: “The Bank of England has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, three sources said, the latest sign of how the Trump administration’s policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability.

However, President Donald Trump’s break from long-standing U.S. policy in areas such as free trade and defense has forced policymakers to consider whether the emergency provision of dollars in times of financial stress can still be relied on.”

This is from one of our staunchest allies, folks…  You can only imagine what’s going on in countries that don’t like us very much…  I’m just saying…

And another of our top allies, the Eurozone, announced that they are preparing a retaliation to the POTUS’s tariffs… It seems everyone is piling on the U.S. right now, and this can’t be good going forward… 

Well, all the talk the last couple of months that the short papers’ traders hold on the metals was showing signs of weakening, have turned out to be nothing more than talk…  The day’s needed in production of Gold to cover the short positions is 68, and the day’s needed in production of Silver to cover the short position is 180, and yes those numbers are down a smidgen, but nothing to that would make you think that the SPT’s run is over… and even coming to an end…  Of course, I would love it if they were coming to an end, but I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown!

A current Fed Head, Waller, and a former Fed Head, Warsh, were both out last week dissing the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie with interest rates, while inflation is still hanging tough…  I have Warsh’s stance for you in the FWIW section today… 

Powell, has to feel like everyone is ganging up on him, and he’s backed into a corner, and he’s not a badger, or a mad racoon… He’s not going to come out and attack these guys, he’s going to coil up in the corner and hope they go away… 

I’m going to bring this subject up again, and then again next week and thereafter until something is done to correct it… I’m talking about the strain on the power grid by the AI drain… You see, AI uses tons more electricity and is already putting strains on power grides around the country… First it was the electric cars, now its the AI machines… E-Gad! And we’re just now getting into the hottest days of summer, when home air conditioners will be working overtime… what happens if your local power grid has a brown out, in the middle of a hot August day? I shudder at the thought… 

Yes, nuclear power could help relieve some of the strain, but building a new nuclear reactor is going to take years!  We’re heading down a dark alley folks…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the June Retail Sales, I have to say that it snuck up on me, so my bad… The June Retail Sales surprised by gaining .6%, after May’s negative print… I know what it was! Father’s Day’s gifts! NOT!  At least not at my house! 

The Data Cupboard today was the Leading Indicators for June… I expect them to be negative again, as they have been for a month of Sundays…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard this week until we get to Friday this week, and by then I’ll be packing my bags for my traditional Summer Vacation!

To recap… The dollar ran into a roadblock late last week and spent Thursday and Friday spinning its wheels. The metals took that as their opportunity to get back on the rally tracks, along with the price of Oil… So, the anti-dollar assets of metals and Oil were both beating up on the dollar to end the week… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had the former Fed Head, Keven Warsh’s comments for you on the Top Fed Head, Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie on rates, and you can find it here: Fed Chair Candidate Warsh Wants More Inflation

Or, here’s your snippet: “During a recent interview with CNBC, Warsh called for a regime change at the central bank, citing its reluctance to cut interest rates.

“Their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a mark against them. It’s as if they’ve lost some of the credibility. Truth is, in economics and inflation, bygones are not bygones. The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them. So, one of the reasons why the president, I think, is right to be pushing the Fed publicly is we need regime change in the conduct of policy.”

The interviewer directly asked Warsh if he thought Trump should fire Powell.

“I think regime change at the Fed will happen in due course.”

Warsh Wants More Inflation

Like President Trump, Warsh is an outspoken advocate of interest rate cuts, arguing that price inflation is under control. His statements indicate he believes the central bank has moved too slowly in the past. During the interview, he said the central bank should look beyond the “one-off” change in prices due to tariffs.

But make no mistake – this is a call for more inflation.”

Chuck Again…  yes, inflation as cooled from its heights, but it has remained siticky, and resilient and in fact increased in June…  The thing these knuckleheads that keep calling for rate cuts aren’t taking into consideration is that Money Supply has been increasing for over a year now… And what have I taught you about Money Supply? That Money Supply equals inflation…   

Market Prices 7/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .5963, C$.7296, euro 1.1659, sterling 1.3566, Swiss $1.2504, European Style: rand 17.7249, krone 10.1780, SEK 9.6177, forint 342.21, zloty 3.6391, koruna 21.2669, RUB 78.20, yen 147.20, sing 1.2820, HKD 7.7498, INR 86.30, China 7.1794, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5796, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $67.36, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $38.54, Platinum $1,457.00, Palladium $1,293.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,372

That’s it for today… Well, my blood work all looked pretty good last week, and my oncologist agreed with me that the tumor in my mouth hadn’t shrunk any more, but has remained stable… I woke up yesterday morning with a horrible pain in my left shoulder… I couldn’t move it without major pain shooting through my shoulder…  The pain subsided just a bit as the day went on… UGH!  I’m so sad about my baseball team… They are circling the bowl, folks… UGH! College Football starts in a month! I hope my beloved Mizzou Tigers do better than forecast… The Doors takes us to the finish line today with their song; Riders On The Storm…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler