Author: admin

• currencies & metals rally on Monday so strong to write home about!
• Jim Grant visits the Pfennig this morning

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! No baseball for me to watch last night, but 4 games today… I tried to watch the Monday Night Football Game, but it didn’t hold my interest very long… I went to the grocery store yesterday for a few things, and ended up spending $100… Inflation is a real killer, eh? I picked up my dinner, some fried Chicken, which happens to be my all-time favorite food to eat! My mom used to make some yummy fried chicken for Sunday dinners.. I can’t find anyone to cook fried chicken any longer, they claim it’s too messy… So, I buy it from the grocery store! Sam & Dave greet me this morning with their hit 60’s song: Hold On, I’m Coming… 

Well, the dollar continued to go deeper in the underlying weak trend yesterday, and the BBDXY ended the day down 2 index points at 1,202… The euro, which for a brief time last week before the dollar went on its 2-day rally, was trading over 1.18, but has since been sent back to do its time in the 1.17 handle…  But the story yesterday was not about the currencies… It was about the metals… Gold kicked some tail and took names later by gaining $95, and Silver did the same by gaining $1.87… Gold closed the day at $3,845, and Silver at $46.97… There was the usual SPT trading the metals short, but the overall strength of the physical buying of the two prevailed… 

Oil traders must have woke up and said, what the heck is going on with he price of Oil trading over $65?  And they proceeded to get the price of Oil back to a $63 handle… The 10-year Treasury must have seen some buying by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel yesterday because the yield dropped to 4.14% (from 4.18%) to end the day yesterday…

In the overnight markets last night… inch by inch, step by step, the monster nears… that old story is what I’m thinking about with the dollar… The BBDXY is down 1 index point this morning and starts the day at 1,201.  The selling of the dollar has been quite tepid… But… It’s selling and going in the right direction as far as I’m concerned…  The euro is hanging out in the 1.17 handle these days, and that’s something I want to talk a bit about… 

I used to point out to people when they would tell me that the dollar was strong, that if that was true, then why is the euro who has a boat load of problems, at whatever level it was at the time, like now it’s 1.17…   If the dollar was strong, the euro would be at parity with the dollar, or even lower, like it was after first getting issued back in 1999…  Yes, I was the currency trader for the brand spanking new online back, EverBank back then…  That’s so last century, Chuck! 

The SPTs are out in force this morning and selling Gold & Silver as I write… Gold is currency down $18, and Silver is down 69-cents…  I just don’t know what their endgame is, the SPTs… I realize they profit from this short-selling scheme, but there’s got to be something else driving them to continually take down the metals when It appears that the metals are ready for a moon shot… One of these days, Alice! To the Moon! 

Well, yesterday, I told you that the Bank of Mexico had cut their rates 25 Basis Points and pointed to additional rate cuts coming… What the heck are these guys smoking?  Don’t they have a inkling that for investors to buy pesos, they need a “risk premium”?  I’ve long said that the peso needed a much higher interest rate to entice investors to buy and invest in pesos, because of the country’s past sins with the currency… Don’t recall them?  I suggest your Google their past sins, for I don’t feel like going back over them again this morning…  

So, I would think that the peso will begin to weaken… The price of Oil helps the peso remain well bid, but that well bid status could very easily go right out the window with rate cuts… I’m just saying…

Russia reported their latest GDP last week, and they reported that their GDP only grew at 1% in the 1^st half of this year… I’m still surprised that they garnered 1% growth, given the economic sanctions on their economy…  And with the price of Oil range bound and not moving higher, the ruble has seen better days…  Remember, the ruble is a play on Oil… So, if you’re like me, and you think that the price of Oil won’t stay range bound forever… Wink, wink..

Long time readers know that I have a special place in my heart and mind for Jim Grant, of the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, said something the other day that rang a bell with me… he said that “The fed should be hiking rates” He then quoted a former Fed/ Caba/Cartel chairman who said, “it  is the Fed’s job to “take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”  Jim Grant points out that the “party has been going strong”…  I mention this because it is I who also said that the rate should be hiked not cut, so it’s a big slap on the back for me, to have Jim Grant agree with me! I’m just saying…

Circling back to Silver this morning… I was impressed by the Open interest contracts on the COMEX as of 9/1/2025…  Not because there was a drop in the number, but because of the reason that Silver kept rising… Here’s the skinny: “Having soared to over 184,000 Comex contracts by June 17, open interest declined to 154,000 on September 1. Meanwhile the price continued rising strongly to $40. A falling open interest and rising price can happen only in a vicious bear squeeze on the establishment shorts — Alasdair Macleod, from the good folks at GATA… 

There have been rumors bandied about that the SPT’s are dwindling… You would be hard pressed to admit that on Wednesday & Thursday last week, when the SPTs ruled the roost… But this price action in Silver really plays into the thought that there’s a bear squeeze going on…  Let’s hope it continues!  

And yesterday, I told you about how the Fed Heads’s preferred calc of inflation, has inched higher again…  I found this on Moneymetals.com “Gene Ludwig served as Comptroller of the Currency under President Bill Clinton, and he recently wrote a book titled “The Mismeasurement of America: How Outdated Government Statistics Mask the Economic Struggle of Everyday Americans.” He asserts that the CPI is “not tremendously relevant to the lived experience of middle and low-income Americans.”

The CPI encompasses some 80,000 goods and services, from baby formula to college tuition. However, most people don’t purchase the vast majority of the things captured by the CPI.

“If we’re going to have a number that is relevant to them, it’s got to be a smaller group of items that matter to their lives.”

“The problem with this dependence on a single indicator is that not all Americans experience inflation the same way. The CPI includes many items beyond the reach of working families, such as sports tickets, air travel, second homes and golf carts. If the costs of basic necessities such as rent and medical care rise faster than those of nonessential goods, the index may not truly reflect the reality many households face.”

Chuck again… And isn’t that what I’ve been preaching for decades about? That inflation isn’t the same for everyone…  What I use my disposable income on will be completely different from your use your disposable income on…  But groceries? We all need groceries…  And most of us need gas to fuel our cars to go to the grocery store, and then we all have different giggles… But the point I’m making is that the basket of goods that are used to calculate inflation needs to be pared down and then go back to not adding the hedonic adjustments!  And oh, by the way, John Williams who still calculates inflation the way they did before President Clinton and Big Al Greenspan conspired to make CPI lower, and John says that CPI is really 13.5%… Now, that sounds right to me!

Well, there some states in the U.S. that are developing digital Gold & Silver payment systems… And then there is Florida, who passed a law this past spring that removed the sales and use taxes for Gold & Silver and made them legal tender… 

Sound money advocates have paid particular attention to Florida’s new legal tender law, both praising it as a model for other states and maligning its regulatory provisions.

Earlier this year, Florida lawmakers removed sales and use taxes on gold and silver, including bullion coins that qualify as legal tender, while imposing new regulations on precious metal businesses and custodians in the state to protect consumers, reduce financial fraud and deter money-laundering.”

The good folks at GATA sent me this note… I thank them immensely for keeping me up to snuff on the goings on in Gold & Silver… 

I wanted to point something out to you dear readers here… The FOMC cut their internal short-term rate 25 Basis points… And usually, the longer bonds i.e. the 10-year that used to price mortgages, move downward too… But they didn’t this time, and since the rate cuts was announced the 10-year’s yield has risen, which means that mortgage rates have also risen… Last week we saw that sales of existing homes had fallen in number sold… and that can be tied to the rising mortgage rate…   

Of course, these mortgage rates aren’t anything like I paid when I first bought a house many years ago…  I paid 13% and it was tied to the 90-day T-Bill Rate… By the time I sold that first house and bought my second one, the rate was much lower, thank goodness, but still those first few years were difficult to manage… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index for July (I know it’s really stale, but it’s there) We will also see the STUPID Consumer Confidence report for this month… At least the STUPID CC is timely!  

To recap… The dollar returned the underlying weak trend last Friday, and continued to stay there yesterday, losing 2 index points in the BBDXY.  Chuck talks to us about the Mexican Rate Cut, and mortgage rates here in the U.S.  Gold & Silver had banner days yesterday… The SPT’s were there, but they couldn’t dent the armor that Gold & Silver were wearing..

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and it’s about how the commodities (Gold & Silver) are now being priced differently, and it can be found here: ROSS NORMAN – Is gold defying gravity ?

Or, here’s your snippet: “As I see it, you have two options: either to believe the laws of gravity have been suspended, or to accept that gold and other precious metals exist within an entirely new paradigm. Simply claiming that the markets are massively overpriced and will return to “normal” marks you as a dinosaur who has yet to understand that fundamental changes have occurred.

So, can the laws of gravity be suspended? The answer is no. Anyone who knows me is aware that I am not nearly as smart as I like to pretend, so I will admit I had a little assistance from AI, which states:

“The laws of gravity cannot be suspended, blocked, or turned off based on current scientific understanding. Gravity is not a force that can be shielded or neutralized by any known material or technology; it results from the curvature of spacetime caused by mass, according to general relativity, and acts universally on all matter.”

Getting to the point, it is crucial to understand exactly what this new reality entails, because when it changes, so will gold. I believe precious metals sit at the crossroads of shifting geopolitical and economic tensions. The unipolar world, where everything revolved around the US dollar and US treasuries, has vanished—alongside globalization. Today, we live in a bipolar world where the West has weaponized access to its markets, payment channels, and monetary systems against those that do not align with it. Sanctions and the seizure of foreign assets are viewed by many parts of the world as acts of aggression that have undermined trust in institutions once thought above such politics. Irrespective of which side you support, the fact remains that a new iron curtain has emerged. Notably, there is growing momentum within the EU to use the frozen Russian central bank assets—approximately €200 billion held primarily at Euroclear—for Ukraine’s benefit through new financial instruments or loans.

The more the West asserts its influence, the more others seek alternatives. It’s simple. And this is not just about finding a safe haven asset that is independent, cannot be inflated away, is universally trusted, and is no one else’s promise to pay—it is more than that. This is the response from dissenting nations; it is the weaponization of access to certain commodities. In my view, the price gains are not simply the result of shifts in reserve management but are compounded by supply chain constraints and increased hoarding. In that context, a doubling of the gold price in two years, a 58% rise in silver prices year-to-date, 74% in platinum, and 39% in palladium starts to make sense. The illiquidity, tightness, and high borrowing costs (leasing) of these precious metals only confirm this perspective.”

Chuck again… yes, we’re coming to an end of the credit cycle, where it leads us is a BIG question… I truly believe that it will lead to collapse of the financial system of the U.S.  What do you believe?  Are you with me on this? This reminds me of the scene from the movie Animal House… “”Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!”  LOL!  

On a sidebar.. Once a long time ago, I added this line from the movie, and a young lady in our accounting area, stopped me as I walked by to tell me that it wasn’t the Germans who bombed Pearl Harbor, it was the Japanese… I started to explain it to her, but then I just kept walking and said, ‘Thanks!” HAHAHAHAHA

Market Prices 9/30/2025: American Style: A$.6606, kiwi .5792, C$ .7239, euro 1.1739, sterling 1.3432, Swiss $1.2533, European Style: rand 17.2660, krone 9.9854, SEK 9.4185, forint 332.62, zloty 3.6378, koruna 20.7272, RUB 82.35, yen 148.05, sing 1.2901, HKD 7.7804, INR 88.79, China 7.1194, peso 18.34, BRL 5.3223, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.83, Oil $62.99, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $46.26, Platinum $1,564.00, Palladium $1,262.00, Copper $4.85, and Gold… $3.817

That’s it for today…  Well, I’m all by myself again, as Katy has gone to Florida to take care of business with our place there…   She left Sunday, and won’t be back until Friday night… Hello Pizza Man Pizza? Yes, please deliver me a large, extra cheese! Not really, I went to the grocery store yesterday to buy me some food for dinners this week. My days of eating Pizza all the time are over… Unless I want to balloon up in weight again! Not happening!  So, I’m going to root for the Padres in the NL and the Indians, I mean the team from Cleveland… in the baseball playoffs… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Ride My Seesaw…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday
• And in the overnight markets metals are soaring!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a weekend for yours truly… I got my infusion Thursday, and I woke up Friday morning, not sick.. YAHOO!  I’m thankful for all of you who sent me a note, telling me the infusion would be OK, and those that said a prayer for that outcome… I truly believe in the power of prayer… I’m just saying…  This will be an extra-long Pfennig today, as I started writing it this weekend, and found I had a lot to talk about! My beloved Cardinals finished their regular season yesterday, with the final game of the year for them VS the Cubs… a long season is ahead for The Cardinals, for sure! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Time Passages… 

The dollar really booked some gains on Wednesday and Thursday last week, with the BBDXY rising from 1,1996 on Wednesday morning to 1,208 on Thursday evening.   But, the dollar returned to the underlying weak trend on Friday when the PCE data print showed that inflation had risen in August to 2.7% (really? They expect us to believe that inflation is only 2.7%?)  And that brought the 2 more rate cuts scenario back and put them directly on the burner…  The BBDXY ended the week on Friday at 1,204… 

I didn’t get why the dollar bugs were buying dollars on Wednesday and Thursday, for they pointed to some words by the el jefe, Jay Powell, who said some things about how the markets had gotten ahead of themselves with their rate cuts thoughts…  I mean, he was just trying to calm down the markets, but the market participants, being what they are, didn’t take it that way, and bought dollars, thinking that he said that there would be no more rate cuts…  He didn’t say that!  And that’s why I just didn’t get why the dollar bugs were buying dollars… 

Gold saw major short paper trading on Wednesday and Thursday… I won’t go into their selling, I’ll just tell you that Gold climbed back on the rally horse, on Friday, after the PCE data print, and would have closed much higher than it did, if not for the SPTs showing up late in the afternoon… Gold ended the week up $ 10 and closing the week at $3,758. Silver, was another story… While Gold was getting axed by the SPTs, Silver was enjoying a turn on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride and gained 88-cents on Thursday! And closed the day above $45!!   Silver closed the week well above the  The Actual close at week’s end for Silver was $45.99.

Can you believe how quickly Silver is climbing to $50? It’s like it’s attached to a moon rocket!  To Infinity & Beyond (Buzz Lightyear) 

On a sidebar here… the last time Silver touched at $50, a writer from Forbes called me and asked me what was going on with Silver… I gave her a long dissertation on why Silver was rising, and that it was the regular guy’s Gold…  And the interview ended up being on the front cover of the magazine, with the quote: “Silver, the new Gold”… or something like that…  Silver soon went to $50 and then it wasn’t $50 any longer…  The powers that be took it down quickly.. It’s been since April 2011 that Silver has last gotten to $50… So, strap yourself in, keep all arms and legs inside and get ready for the ride of your life!  

The thing that really frustrates me is that Gold was up over $30 during the day, and Silver was up over $1.28…  Here’s Ed Steer’s take on this… “It was another day where gold was the underperformer. But in the case of all four of the precious metals, the collusive commercial shorts stepped in to the limit the gains in everything — and even had the audacity to close silver a penny below $46 spot.”

The price of Oil really jumped higher last week, and ended the week trading with a $66 handle… I couldn’t find anything out there on the newswires regarding Oil, so I’ll put it down as a supply concern… The 10-year Treasury continued to get sold, and see its yield rise as it ended the week with a 4.18% yield… 

And Copper was soaring in price late last week, until it wasn’t any longer… But still it ended the week at $4.76…  here’s the skinny on what’s going on in Copper from Bloomberg.com “Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia after a massive mud flow killed two employees and left five missing.

The declaration may cause Freeport to not meet supply contracts for the mine, and the company lowered its copper and gold production guidance for the quarter.

The incident has strained the global copper market, which is already experiencing supply disruptions and soaring demand due to the clean-energy transition and artificial intelligence boom.

Chuck again… I have a friend that is a big shot at a lighting company out East, and he’s always complaining about the price of Copper… I bet he’s having a cow right now…  I’m just saying…

In the overnight markets last night… The underlying weak trend for the dollar came into play overnight. The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,203, and all the talk on the newswires is that there is a chance of a Government Shutdown… And that talk has Gold at a new record high this morning, as the problems within the U.S. multiply, and Gold is up $65 to start our day today… Silver is also moving higher this morning. Silver is up 96-cents to start our day/ week today…  Gold is $3,825, and Silver is $47.08… This is quite the morning for the metals, and I have a feeling that the SPTs will be out to manage the prices of the metals this morning… I hope not, but the wolf is always at the door…

The price of Oil remained trading with a $65 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is holding steady trading with a 4.18% yield. 

A Government Shutdown? Really? Haven’t we already come to 80-something events like this in our past, and every time, an 11^th hour deal is made to kick the debt can down the road again and let the future lawmakers deal with it? Yes, we have, and this time will be no different, in my mind… But the show must go on, right? The drama and intrigue will come to a crescendo and then we’ll just pick up the pieces and go on with life…  But if this is what takes to get Gold to new all-time record levels, then so be it!

The Bank of Mexico cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points to 7.5% this is the lowest rate for Mexico since 2022… And they were being copycats, for they cut rates while inflation is still a problem in Mexico…  The bank also indicated this rate cut would most likely see more coming…  The peso didn’t respond to the rate cut, which was strange… 

The currencies have been through the gauntlet of a strong dollar, weak dollar, strong dollar, and all the shenanigans that goes with that trading… I guess I’m about the only person out there that writes, that thinks the currencies are still a play… I still believe that to properly diversify your investment portfolio you have to have a portion of the portfolio outside of your home currency… The in the U.S. it’s the dollar, in Europe it’s the euro, and so on… along with a portion of your investment portfolio, in Gold & Silver, then you have a reduced risk investment portfolio… 

But these days, it’s all about the stock jockeys… I read this weekend that U.S. investors now own more stocks than ever before… To me, that’s risky! But then I’m so conservative with investments that I can only see this scenario collapsing like the dot come scenario collapsed, or all of the economic collapses I the history of the world…  John Law comes to mind, the tulip collapse, and others that I’ve read about and studied through the years…  I’m just saying… diversify your investment portfolio before it’s too late! 

There was an awful auction of the 7-year treasury last week…  Here’s the skinny on the auction: The bid to cover was just 2.395, a big drop from 2.489 in August and the lowest since March 2023.

But it was the internals that were especially bad: Indirects, aka foreign buyers, plunged from 77.5% to 56.4%, the biggest monthly drop in 4 years. Worse, this was the lowest foreign demand since March 2021, when as veteran bond traders will recall, the US had a near-failed 7Y auction.

I’m worried about the debt financing folks…  And eventually this will spill over to the dollar trading, which I’m also concerned with, as it will put additional pressure on the dollar, and propel it in the weak dollar trend… Just a reminder that the U.S. sells Treasuries to finance its debt…  Can you see why I’m worried?

Circling the wagons back to Gold this morning… This from Bloomberg.com  “Bullion doesn’t look overpriced relative to the dollar and Treasuries, which “ought to contain a level of Fed-related premium, given the nature of the risk” from the central bank’s potential loss of independence, Barclays Plc. strategists including Themistoklis Fiotakis and Lefteris Farmakis said in a note on Sunday. “This makes it a surprisingly good value hedge.”

Chuck again…  I liked that they thought that Gold was not overpriced relative to the dollar and treasuries!  That’s something that I think investors should take hold of and run with it!  Why on earth would you not?  

I’m reading a message this morning, that talks about how a good number of people in the U.S. can’t afford to buy physical Gold… But they can have the latest iPhone, the biggest TV screen, the newest car, whatever…  C’mon think about that, investment options that don’t involve stocks and bonds… Now, that’s novel if you ask me! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the 3^rd revision to 2^nd QTR GDP…  And once again, I feel that I need to explain that GDP in the U.S. is NOT that strong (3.3%). Because the number is skewed by Gov’t spending…  

Bill Bonner had this in his Wednesday letter last week: “But there is no evidence of such growth anywhere in the economic record. Just the opposite. The Fed never, ever had rates as low as they were in the 2008-2023 period. And yet, growth rates declined from the 3 and 4 percents of the 1990s to the 1 and 2 percents of the 2008-2025 period.”

Chuck again… In addition, last week, Personal Income and Spending for Aug printed, and Spending was really strong as the back-to-school sales helped.  We also saw that the Fed/Cabal/Cartel’s favorite flavor of inflation calculation printed for Aug, and it showed inflation rising at a 2.7% clip, up from July’ 2.5% clip…  And that was the reason the dollar saw some selling on Friday, as I described above. 

This week’s Data Cupboard will come to a crescendo on Friday when the Jobs Jamboree takes place for Sept. It will be interesting to see the new BLS head honcho’s flavor of hedonic adjustments, and what will the number be?

To recap… The dollar went on a brief rally on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, but returned to the underlying weak dollar trend on Friday, after PCE showed that inflation rose in Aug, and that put the rate cuts back on the burner… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, as long as inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind, I’ll continue to give you data that confirms that there should have been a rate hike instead of a rate cut… This article is about consumer inflation and it can be found here: Grocery prices are rising again, as ground beef and coffee hit record highs

Or, here’s your snippet: “About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a major source of stress in their life and the latest inflation data shows that pressure isn’t easing.

Grocery prices rose 0.6 percent from July to August, the steepest one-month gain in roughly three years, according to the Consumer Price Index. They’re now 2.7 percent higher than a year ago and up nearly 30 percent from before the pandemic.

Grocery inflation has cooled considerably since the summer of 2022, when it peaked above 13 percent year-over-year, but President Trump’s tariffs and tighter immigration rules are clouding the outlook.

So far, Trump’s trade policies haven’t pushed up consumer prices as much as many economists feared, but some items including coffee are starting to feel the grind.

Coffee prices surged 3.6 percent in August, the biggest monthly jump since 2011, leaving them 20.9% higher than a year ago. Recent droughts in Brazil and Vietnam explain part of the increase, but the latest spike comes on the heels of Trump’s 50 percent tariff on Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.

The U.S. is also highly reliant on imports — and immigrant labor — for its fresh fruits and vegetables. Tomato prices rose 4.5 percent last month, lettuce 3.5 percent and bananas 2.1 percent, the CPI shows. Overall, fresh vegetable prices climbed 3 percent in August, the largest monthly increase since 2020.

Limited cattle supply has continued to put upward pressure on beef prices, which are at record highs. Meanwhile, egg prices — though down roughly 40 percent from their March peak — remain up from a year ago amid lingering bird flu disruptions.

Coffee

Price Increase: +20.9 percent from August 2024 to August 2025

Average Price: $8.87 per pound in August 2025 (Coffee, 100%, ground roast)”

Chuck again… And the propeller heads tell us that inflation is only 2.7%?   I’m so disgusted with the Gov’t for their reporting and telling us lies…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 9/29/2025: American Style: A$ .6561, kiwi .5787, C$ .7177, euro 1.1713, sterling 1.3429, Swiss $ 1.2528, European Style: rand 17.2932, krone 9.9731, SEK 9.4206, forint 334.16, zloty 3.3416, koruna 20.7749, RUB 82.92, yen 148.78, sing 1.2910, HKD 7.7813, INR 88.76, China 7.1216, peso 18.36, BRL 5.3440, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 98.04, Oil $65.28, 10—year 4.18%, Silver $47.08, Platinum $1,603.00, Palladium $1,304.00, Copper $4.81, and Gold… $3,825

That’s it for today, and more than I usually have, but that’s OK, because I didn’t write on Thursday last week…  So far, so good, with me, with regard to the last infusion… I’m feeling like I did the previous infusions before the one in August that sent me for a trip to sicks Ville… I now wonder what was in that infusion.  Not the normal stuff for sure!  I’m now off the steroids, and can get back to normal sleep patterns and eating… I didn’t gain a lot of weight on the drugs, which was a concerted effort by me to not gain, although my eating did increase a lot!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers will be put to the test when they next play, with a game against Big Bad Alabama… The Ozark Mountain Daredevils take us to the finish line today with their song: Jackie Blue… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies drift on Tuesday, while Gold sees short selling…
• What has Jay Powell said now?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another late game last night… I know that to live on the West Coast, these games start at normal time, but here in the Midwest, where the Cardinals fans want to see their team play, they come on at late times for us that have to get up early the next day… UGH! My beloved Cardinals come back to the Midwest after the next game in S.F. And finish with playing the Cubs… I made an egregious error yesterday when I said that my Mizzou Tigers will play Boston College this Saturday… That was wrong… They will play UMass… UGH! I hate it when I make errors! Aliota, Haynes, Jeremiah greet me this morning with their classic rock song: Lakeshore Drive…

Well, the dollar didn’t move much yesterday and ended the day with the BBDXY at 1,195… Same level it’s been since last Friday… But the euro traded above the 1.18 handle yesterday, as this waiting for the dollar to make its next downward move became too long of a wait for the dollar/ euro traders… I made too much of deal out of Gold & Silver trading on their own devices, void of SPT’s, that I must have woke the SPTs up as they went after Gold, as it neared $3,800… Gold was sold yesterday after Gold had rallied by $38… And they brought Gold’s price down to $3,765, which happened to be a gain from the previous close of $3,748… 

Silver saw the SPT’s also, and its gain on the day was watered down… Silver closed the day at $44.10, down 2-cents on the day…  The wolf is always at the door, and even when they leave Gold & Silver to trade on their own devices for 2 trading days, they came back with a boat load of short paper trades, just remind us all that they are always there… 

The price of Oil moved higher in the $63 handle yesterday… And the 10-year Treasury saw some additional Fed Head manipulation and it’s yield back off to 4.11%..  This is a big tug-o-war between the bond boys and the Fed Heads…  In the end, I would think the bond boys would win, but that’s just me thinking back to my days as a bond trader… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar rallied overnight, the BBDXY starts today at 1,200… That’s up 5 index points overnight, and that’s a BIG gain for the dollar, which I’m sure rallied on the news from Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jay Powell, who told the markets yesterday that the FOMC will have to be very careful about further rate cuts… That indicated to the markets that this latest rate cut just might be a one and done… And that has the dollar bugs crawling out of the wall boards and dancing on the kitchen tile… 

The euro fell back below the 1.18 figure, and the currencies that looked so healthy yesterday, and heading back to their respective sick beds… 

Gold is up $5 to start our day today, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)…  The SPTs really did a number on these two metals yesterday, so I’m sure it with trepidation that Gold Bugs dip their toes back into the waters that are infested with the dirty dog, SPTs… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher to a $64 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury starts the day at 4.13% yield… 

Yesterday, I took it out on the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and their lack of credibility… Here’s another thing that came to mind later in the day…. Powell said the Fed expects to cut two more times this year, but added the Fed is continuing to sell off some of the bonds it owns on its balance sheet. Quantitative Easing (QE) is when the Fed buys bonds, essentially putting more money into the system. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is when the Fed sells bonds, which technically puts upward pressure on interest rates and withdraws money from the system.  So, which one is the Fed Heads doing right now? We’ve seen them in buying bonds to keep the yields from rising… But they say they are selling bonds…  What a conundrum…  

And regarding our debt…  I’ve talked about the Unfunded Liabilities in the past, but now is a good time to revisit them…  I’ve seen the total of Unfunded Liabilities (UL’s) range from $70 Trillion to $200 Trillion… It all depends on what items you want to add to the calc. I personally prefer to take the higher number, because, well, because that’s probably nearer to the truth than the lower number…   Social Security and Medicare are the 200lb Gorillas in the room, and the payroll taxes to fund these two have not been near sufficient to fully fund them…   And remember when I used to tell you that 10,000 baby boomers will retire every day for the next 10 years? Well, that’s still happening… And they want their Social Security payments that they made through the years of working…

What’s the country going to do?  not pay them.?  that would be political suicide… And we all know that politicians need to feel loved, and re-elected! For how will they amass their large sums of money back home doing nothing?  

Here’s the real problem for the U.S. going forward… To fund these programs, the programs will have to be either changed, or… They could take the easy way out, and print money to fund them…  I shudder thinking about the amount of dollars that would have to be printed to fully fund these programs…  Spoiler alert… Social Security is short $22 Trillion, right now, and Medicare is short $50 Trillion, right now…  YIKES! 

In Grant Williams latest letter: Things That Make You Go Hmmm…  he says that all this money printing and rising debt is pushing the U.S. toward a “doom loop”…  Uh-Oh… Grant also reminds us that “the bond market can be forgiving until it isn’t… And if the revolt does come, it won’t be because of politics or geopolitics. It will be because of math. Cold, hard, relentless math.”

The math doesn’t work now, but everyone doesn’t realize it… yet…  The Empire is collapsing… 

And to that end, this from YAHOO Finance: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there is “no risk-free path” for the central bank’s next policy move as inflation remains elevated and the job market weakens.

It’s “a challenging situation,” Powell said during a speech in Rhode Island on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed must balance its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability.”

Chuck again… yes, it IS A Challenging Situation, Jay… But that’s what they have you there to do, tackle them… But in my opinion, you just whiffed at the running back through the hole and he’s on his way to the end zone…  

So, we as a country are in a “doom loop”, we don’t have the math to grow anything but more debt, and the Central Bank is in a challenging position…  Would you buy stock in this company?  I ask that, because I’ve always said that a currency is the “stock of the country issuing it”…  I wouldn’t touch that stock with your ten-foot pole! And neither should you, but I can’t stop you from buying dollars, all I can do is issue warnings and hope you get the message… 

I know, I know, I’m beginning to sound like the new Mr. Gloom and Doom… I really wish I didn’t have to be the bearer of bad news… I would rather be the happy-go-lucky guy that doesn’t seem to have a care in the world… I would get invited to parties, and be the life of the event… But that’s not to be… I am saddled with being the new Mr. Gloom and Doom… Oh well, I think I portray the role very nicely… 

So, let me tell you a story…  about currency trends… I told you yesterday in that video that I shared from 13 years ago, that I truly believe in currency trends…  A weak dollar trend, is followed by a strong dollar trend, and so on, and each trend starts with a fundamental reason, and doesn’t end until that fundamental reason is reversed or well on the way to reversal… The strong dollar trend has been in place since 2013 or 14…  depending on when you want to actually say the dollar has reversed the trend…  So, for 11 years the strong dollar trend has ruled the roost…  And for 11 years, I’ve switched from writing about currencies every single day to writing more about Gold & Silver and currencies on the side… 

But the strong dollar trend is reversing now… Mark your calendars, for Summer 2025, as when the weak dollar trend began… So, get set in the saddle because this is going to be wild ride…  The U.S. Gov’t has no option but to allow the dollar to weaken significantly, to allow inflation into the economy and inflate the debts lower…  Want proof that the strong dollar trend is abating?  On June 5th, the BBDXY traded at 1,211… The BBDXY closed yesterday at 1,195…  That’s a BIG move folks… and yes, it took it all summer to get lower, but as I told you the other day, the currency trends will take longer to play out with all the shenanigans that the currency traders are now playing… 

So, are you ready? Have you diversified your investment portfolio to include currencies and metals?  You do realize don’t you, that by doing that you reduce the overall risk of your investment portfolio?  That’s a fact, Jack!  If you don’t believe me, look up Harry Markowitz… and check out his modern portfolio theory…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday  didn’t have any real economic data for us, and neither does today… So the Data Cupboard is a BIG Zero. Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will be HUGE, with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the 3rd revision of 2nd QTR GDP, Industriial Production, and the first look at the Trade Deficit for Aug…  

And this is where I remind you that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as I will be going to see my oncologiist, bright and early Thursday morning…  You have been warned… or better yet, you have been give a day away from me! 

To Recap… The dollar drifted again yesterday, and ended the day with the BBDXY at 1,195… Same closing level as Friday, and Monday…  Chuck reminds us that that the dollar’s downfall will be slow to move… But the underlying weak trend for the dollar is in place now, are you diversified?   And Chuck proclaims himself to be the new Mr. Gloom and Doom… 

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at GATA sent me this and in it the article explains that China is aware of the price manipulation of the U.S in Gold, and it can  and the article is on the GATA site, so unless you are a subscriber to GATA, you can’t read it all… But not to worry, I have it for you here:

Or, here’s your snippet: “As early as 2010, U.S. embassy cables released by WikiLeaks revealed that Chinese state-controlled media outlets had been reporting on gold market rigging by the U.S. for years.

Central bank intelligence: The Bank of Russia, which has coordinated with China on financial matters, has also long been aware of Western gold price suppression policies. This awareness was revealed in a speech by a Bank of Russia deputy chairman who mentioned the work of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), an organization dedicated to exposing market manipulation.

Suspicious market patterns: Observers have noted that gold market anomalies, such as significant short-selling of paper gold contracts on Western exchanges, do not align with supply-and-demand fundamentals. This suggests that prices are being suppressed.

China’s strategic response

Rather than confronting this manipulation directly, China has been implementing a long-term strategy involving several key moves:

Aggressive gold accumulation: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been a leading buyer of gold for years, rapidly increasing its reserves. Since 2022, a significant portion of these purchases have been unreported in official International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics.

De-dollarization: China is actively reducing its reliance on the U.S. dollar, particularly since the freezing of Russian foreign reserves in 2022. It is shedding U.S. Treasury holdings and encouraging its trading partners to settle transactions in local currencies, with gold often used as an implicit monetary anchor.”

Chuck again… Well, bust my buttons, I was not aware that China was onto our Manipulation of Gold… See? You learn something new ever day!  

Market Prices 9/24/2025; American Style: A$ .6602, kiwi .5834, C% .7207. Euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3458, Swiss $1.2583, European Style: rand 17.3149, krone 9.9439, SEK 9.3872, forint 333.17, zloty 3.6309, koruna 20.6838, RUB 83.73, yen 148.49, sing 1.2874, HKD 7.7773, INR 88.69, China 7.1274, peso 18.40, BRL 5.2823, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 97.75, OIl $64.12, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $44.07, Platinum $1,470.00, Palladium $1,236.00, Copper $4.60, and Gold… $3,770

That’s if for today and this week… Like I said yesterday, I’m somewhat concerned about my reaction to the chemo infusion I’ll receive tomorrow… If I have another adverse reaction to it, then the game is over for me… Because this is the last Chance Saloon…  I guess I’ll have to suck it up, and deal with it if it hits me like it did two months ago… But that’ll mean I don’t write every day…  Because last time, I was so sick that I couldn’t get out of my chair!  I lost major weight, and was below 200lbs for the first time since I was in High School!   So, no more of that!  Not that I didn’t mind losing weight, but losing it that fast wasn’t healthy…    Ok… enough of my whining and crying… The Killers takes us to the finish line this morning with their song: Somebody Told Me… I Hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• The Fed’s credibility is Gone with the wind…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I completely forgot about yesterday being the first full day of Autumn when penning the Pfennig in the a.m.  So, welcome to Autumn… The Boys of Summer (Henley) are gone… Baseball will soon enter its playoff time… And then the teams in the playoffs will dwindle down until there are just two teams left, and the World Series! These playoff games should be quite interesting, to me, that is… Little Feat greets me this morning with their live version of the song: Dixie Chicken…

The days will be growing shorter, in terms of daylight, and the days will become crisper… time to get the firepit out and get ready for sitting out by the fire! I have one of those solo stoves, that don’t produce smoke… I love it, except that I used to really enjoy watching the middle of the fire and watching the logs burn…  See? I’m strange, eh? 

Well, the dollar kind of drifted lower yesterday, with the BBDXY ending the day at 1,195… That was the same level as Friday’s close, but yesterday at one point, the BBDXY was up to 1,198…. So, the conviction to get the dollar higher wasn’t there, and the dollar bugs went back to their respective holes in the wall board… 

I said yesterday that if Gold & Silver were left to their own devices that we would be amazed at their performances… Well, we came very close to letting them trade on their own devices as Gold gained $62, and Silver gained 99-cents… Gold closed the day at $3,748, and get this… Silver closed at $44.12-That’s right, $44 reached in one day’s trading… I’ll say this again… Silver is on its way to $50…  Anyone want to take the under bet? I’m just kidding, I don’t bet money, except a shiny quarter ever now and then… 

Besides if I lost, I would have to Venmo the money to you, and finding you in Venmo would probably take me all day…  Remember, I’m not even your last choice as a Tech Guy… I know enough to get me in trouble… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle again yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield continues to inch higher, closing yesterday with a 4.15% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar has seen a bit of buying with the BBDXY starting today at 1,196… The currencies look healthier this morning than they have in some time, so there’s that…  I don’t know who would be buying the dollar, except the Fed Heads, or Treasury, so there’s that to think about… Why would anyone with a sane mind think it to be a good idea to buy dollars, when the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel have entered a new easing period for interest rates, inflation is sticky and rising again, and the debt of the nation is unsustainable?   I’m just saying… 

The price of Gold is kicking tail and taking names later this morning, as it nears $3,800… Gold is up $35 to start our day today, and Silver is up 24-cents… I said yesterday that “left to their own devices these metals would amaze us with their performance”… And that’s exactly what’s been going on these last 3 trading days… Friday, Monday, and today so far…   

One of the things that has helped the Gold price continue to amaze is the HUGE flows of investments into the Gold ETF…   To each his own I say, but to me, you don’t really own Gold unless you can hold it…  I’m just saying…   The ETF for Gold is a method to own the price of Gold, you can get your physical Gold out of an ETF if you so desire, but it will be like getting a tooth pulled without Novocain!  I’m just saying..

The price of Oil has bumped higher to a $63 handle this morning, and the 10-year saw some trimming of its yield to 4.13% this morning…  I would think that mini drop in yield represents the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in shaving some of the yield off so that it doesn’t get too high…  Think about that for a minute… Who or what entity has the wherewithal to manipulate bond yields in their favor?   There’s only one…  Sad to say, that it’s the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel…  They print; they buy…   In the video I mention below, I made a BIG Point of saying that the Fed printed money to buy bonds back then… They’re still in the bond buying business even though they say they aren’t… 

Well, I have something from the archives for you today…  In 2012, I was in Vancouver to speak, and a friend of EverBank, Jeff Clark came to me and asked me to a quick interview on camera… Of course, I said yes…  Now, please keep in mind that this was 13 years ago… I was HUGE at that time, I still had all my teeth, and my eye had just been taken out the previous year, so I was still working to get it to open right…  But with no further ado…  here’s the link: Chuck Butler – EverBank

I hope you get a kick out that… 

Yesterday, I told you about the new Fed Head, Stephen Miran, who had voted for a 50 Basis Points rate cut, but was out voted for a 25 Basis Point rate cut… Well, Mr. Miran doubled down yesterday and called for his fellow Fed heads to cut rates 200 Basis Points!  See? Didn’t I josh yesterday that he should just say “take rates to zero”!  This guy is a “plant” by the POTUS to influence the other Fed Heads to go down his road of major rate cuts…   

Hey! Maybe the economy could use a rate cut, but what the economy doesn’t need is inflation soaring again, and that’s exactly what this is all about, getting inflation soaring to help with the debt…  Bill Bonner coined the term: Inflate or Die…  And the Fed Heads have chosen their method of death by a thousand cuts and that is with inflation…  Money supply is still strong, and that along with weaker rates will invite inflation into the economy without RSVPing… 

Circling back to dollar, and the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel for a minute…  The credibility of the Fed Heads has gone to hell in a hand basket, and it’s their own fault, for they brought this scenario for them to everyone’s attention, with their meddling in the markets, their insistence that inflation was only temporary, and their manipulating bond yields, and their blatant disregard for the middle class’s struggles with inflation… The list is long here, and I won’t detail all of the items that the Fed Heads have taken on, but I did list the ones that I think are very important… 

So, what we have here is a Central Bank that is rogue… And that’s not a good thing, folks…  I recall a time when the Fed Heads were invisible to the public, and that they worked in the background, not ruffling feathers, not giving speeches to opine their opinions, not a major manipulator of markets…  But that scenario was thrown by the waysides by Big Al Greenspan…  And since Big Al, every Fed Chairman has been a mere shadow of the great Fed Chairmen of the past… I’m just saying

And this Central Bank will be a major part of the downfall of the dollar, along with the debt, the debt servicing, and Chaotic White House…  C’mon give me a reason why the dollar isn’t going to fall to depths it hasn’t seen in a while… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard didn’t have anything for us yesterday, just a bunch of Fed Heads spouting off about this, that and the other thing… Today, we’ll see the flash preliminary Trade Deficit for the first two weeks of September… it should be a doozy, and companies and businesses have been buying as much as they can ahead of tariffs… 

To recap… The dollar drifted lower yesterday, after a brief rally during the morning session… Gold & Silver had banner days with Gold going over $3,700 and Silver going over $44 on the day… Miran double down on his call for bigger rate cuts… What? He’s trying to ingratiate himself to the Stock Jockeys… Anything wrong with that? YES!!!! Can you say, soaring inflation? 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article on Bloomberg.com last night, because the football game on TV couldn’t hold my attention… And it’s about Gold & Silver and it can be found here: Gold (XAUUSD) Holds Just Below Record as Traders Wait for Rate-Path Clues – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet; “Gold powered to a record in the week’s opening session after flows into exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has further to run. Silver also rose, with year-to-date gains topping 50%.

The more expensive metal spiked to an all-time high above $3,700 an ounce, building on a run of five weekly gains, as the Fed cut rates and flagged further easing through to year-end. On Friday, bullion-backed ETFs surged 0.9%, the most in percentage terms since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investors Buy Most Gold ETFs in More Than Three Years

Holdings grew nearly 27 tons on Friday, giving fresh legs to bullion’s rally.

Gold and silver have been among the year’s best performing major commodities on a broad confluence of supportive factors, as the Fed eases policy, central banks bolster their reserve holdings, and lingering geopolitical tensions sustain a bid for havens. Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have flagged their expectations for further gains.

“Technical’s are looking pretty strong, and expectations are rising for deeper rate cuts,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. In silver, “resistance at $43 an ounce was broken, while gold powered through $3,708 an ounce — suggesting prices will continue to push higher.”

This week, traders will parse data including US personal consumption expenditures for August. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace, which may strengthen the case for more cuts. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the outlook on Tuesday.”

Chuck Again…  It’s all good news on the wires about Gold & Silver’s move yesterday, but as the report says these two have been on a roll for some time now, not just yesterday..  Are Cab Drivers talking about owning/ buying Gold yet? I’m just wondering, for when they do begin talking about their Gold, it’ll be time to worry about pull back, but until then… Onward and Upward!

Market Prices 9/23/2025: American Style: A$ .6608, kiwi .5864, C$ .7231, euro 1.1792, sterling 1.3511, Swiss $1.2612, European Style: rand 17.3205, krone 9.8973, SEK 9.3285, forint 330.70, zloty 3.6087, koruna 20.5509, RUB 83.62, yen 1.4782, sing 1.2835, HKD 7.7756, INR 88.75, China 7.1117, peso 18.32, BRL 5.3438, BBDXY 1,196, Dollar Index 97.36, Oil $63.01, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $44.36, Platinum $1,468.00, Palladium $1,237.00, Copper $4.63, and Gold… $3,783

That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals are in S. F. So the game last night came on later, and I couldn’t say awake to watch them… I did make it for 4 innings… My trip to the PCP yesterday was good… The Doc said I looked great, considering all that I’ve been through… And then I told him about the recent adverse reaction I had with the last infusion, and he said, “another notch in your belt”! I’m already getting antsy about this Thursday, when I see my oncologist, she’ll want me back on the infusions… If I have another adverse reaction to the drug, then I’m up a creek without a paddle… This is the last chance saloon for me with chemo… As I told you months ago, there is no new chemo for me to take… So, fingers crossed, eh? Steve Miller takes us to the finish line today with his song: Living In The USA… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally last Friday & overnight last night
• The U.S. is happy with China’s currency rally

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals played their last home game of the season yesterday… and they won the series with the Brewers 2-1…  they’ll finish on the road… And then head their separate ways, with some of them not coming back to St. Louis for next season…  One of which, is the future HALL of Famer, Nolan Arenado, who received a standing ovation from the crowd when taken out of the game… War greets me this morning with their classic rock song, and one that I sing out loud to: Cisco Kid… 

The dollar got sold on Friday last week, with the BBDXY ending the week at 1,195… The euro ended the week trading with a 1.17 handle, as there were some comments late last week regarding the European Economy not doing so well…  Do you recall me telling you last week that the Chinese renminbi was rallying VS the dollar?  Well, over the weekend U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent had this to say about the rally of the renminbi… “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested he’s fine with how China’s yuan has moved against the dollar this year, while pointing out its depreciation against the euro presents a challenge for European economies.

“Well, they haven’t done it to the US,” Bessent said of descriptions of China having engaged in “opportunistic devaluation” this year. “The RMB is actually stronger this year versus the dollar,” he said, referring to the renminbi, China’s official name for its currency. “It’s at an all-time low versus the euro, which is a problem for the Europeans.”

To me, that was very interesting that he said that about the renminbi… For years, past Presidents often complained about how cheap the renminbi was… So, now, it’s rallying, and everyone in D.C. Is happy about it…  

Also, on Bloomberg.com over the weekend there was a comment about how volatility in currencies has gone by the wayside… Here’s the comment: “Advancements in electronic trading may be crushing volatility in the currency market, making prolonged wild swings a thing of the past.”

Chuck again…  Man, am I glad that I no longer was the lead trader of currencies on the trading desk at EverBank, when I used to work…  All this means is that the new weak dollar trend that I’ve talked about will take longer to get really rolling…  So, patience will be virtue for currency traders, or investors…  Because… just because the dollar’s weakness will be evident, it will take a while for it to be imminent… 

Gold ended last week on a high note, gaining $40 on Friday, and ending the week at $3,686…  And Silver too, had a good day on Friday, gaining $1.27 to end the week at $43.13… There were no SPTs in that were seen, for either metal…  Instead, they focused their attention on Palladium, which ended the week down $22 at 1,174.00…

Speaking of Gold…  Bill Bonner had this is his daily letter that he took from Barons: “Gold prices extended their extraordinary gains, with bullion prices surpassing their inflation-adjusted record set more than four decades ago.

Spot gold prices rose 0.1% on the session to $3,656.40 an ounce, topping the inflation-adjusted record of $3,498.77 an ounce established in 1980.

The gains followed another set of economic data suggesting mounting stagflation risks in the world’s biggest economy. Weekly jobless claims figures were at the highest levels in four years, according to the Labor Department, while headline inflation quickened to 2.9%, the highest level of the year.”

Chuck again… yes, we’ve finally passed the inflation adjusted price of Gold from 1980… Amazing, isn’t it?  Well, not that amazing considering that we have a Stupid Fed/Cabal/ Cartel cutting interest rates while inflation is rising… What dope does that? Well, we all know who that dope is… Shame, shame, shame, (in my best Gomer Pyle voice) 

The price of Oil slipped going into the weekend and had to settle trading with a $62 handle… And I told you last week that the bond boys are not believing the call for 2 more rate cuts this year, and ever since the rate cut announcement last week the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen, and it ended the week trading with a 4.13% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar’s brief rally was interrupted at a point during the night, but the BBDXY shows that the interruption was brief, and so the index starts today at 1,197…  I read a piece from a technical guy the other day, and he gave some levels for us to keep in mind for the old Dollar Index. (who still uses that?)  He said that the dollar was in deep dookie, and we should keep our attention on two levels.. The Dollar Index is currently at 97.47…  Should the index fall below 96, then the weak trend is confirmed, and if the index falls below 90, then the rout and future collapse of the dollar will be in…  Something to think about, eh?

The price of Gold is soaring this morning in the early trading… Gold Is up $39 to start our day/ week today, and is trading over the $3,700 figure… Silver, too, is soaring, and is up 53-cents to start our day/ week today…  If the SPTs stay away, this could be a day to remember for Gold & Silver… I’m just saying… Because in my opinion, if left to their own devices, we would be amazed at the levels of Gold & Silver… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle overnight, and the 10-year is still at 4.13% yield this morning… 

Well… I got to thinking the other day, that I’ve been harping about the growing Debt for decades now, with no change to the deficit spending, we are now at $37.5 Trillion…  I thought to myself… “why do I keep harping about this because I’m not getting any traction on changing our direction”…  And then I came across this quote from a man with far more gray matter than I… Ray Dalio… This is from Bloomberg.com: “Ray Dalio said the US is unable to cut back on runaway spending that is piling up debt and putting the monetary order at risk.

“You’re seeing the threat to the monetary order,” Dalio said on a panel during the Future China Global Forum in Singapore on Friday. “Other factors together will determine whether we’re seeing the end of the entire US empire.”

Regarding the U.S Empire… I truly believe that it began its demise at the turn of the century… And continues to head down this path that many empires in history have already traveled…  Debt up the wazzoo, amies all over the world, inflation that won’t go away, and… Leaders who are blinded by the light (Springstein) and don’t see what’s going on, and even if they did see what’s going on, they don’t have a clue about how the past Empires collapsed…  I’m just saying…

Did you hear about the new Fed Head, Stephen Miran, the Potus’s pick by the way, dissented on the 25 Basis Points rate cut… and instead voted for a 50 Basis Point rate cut… Shoot Rudy, why didn’t he just say, “cut them to zero!?”  Because that’s what the POTUS wants…   Don’t worry, be happy, about inflation, that is the pipeline and will be given a free run at the economy with lower interest rates… 

And this very discouraging message came to me this past weekend…  China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries just hit a 17-year low…  The Chinese are divesting themselves from automatically buying the debt from the U.S.  and this, my friend, will be very damaging to our futures… I’m just saying…

C’mon, Chuck you are a ball of love and happiness this morning.. Can’t you tell us something good? Well, I did tell you the good news on Gold, right? And I did tell you about the good news on Silver, right?   And all the other things I’ve talked about today, are just reasons to buy more Gold and Silver…  So, don’t blame me for all the bad news about the economy, debt, and dolts! They are easy Pickins… 

Spell check doesn’t like the way I spelled Pickins… But I don’t care!  I’ve got my arms in the air, and I don’t care!

Late last week, the U.S. Data Cupboard had the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which the previous week showed that 264,000 claims were filed… But last week the number of claims fell to 231,000, but don’t think that this is a turn in the momentum as I think it was just a outlier figure…  We also saw the Leading indicators for Aug, and they had widened the negative number from -.1  to -.5… And that, my friends is a Huge jump upward… And that doesn’t bode well for the economy going forward…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is pretty barren until we reach Thursday, when a boatload of data will be printed… Until then we’ll see a plethora of Fed Heads speaking, and some housing data, but the real economic data comes on Thursday, of which I won’t be able to write to you on Thursday, as I will be visiting my oncologist bright and early in the A.M.  So, mark your calendars accordingly! HA! I will remind you on Wednesday, for sure… The 2^nd QTR GDP will receive its 3^rd revision on Thursday… Just remember this about GDP… Gov’t spending is a major part of the data set, and last week I told you about how the U.S. Gov’t has really ratcheted up the spending, so when the GDP prints at 3%+, just know that it’s trumped up, and full of Gov’t spending… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The week ended last week with a down note for the dollar, and an up note for the metals…  Ray Dalio visits the Pfennig this morning, and Chuck is full of seashells and balloons (NOT!) this morning… Leading Indicators are showing that we’re heading in the wrong direction… And our debt and deficit spending is causing the U.S. Empire to head down the road of all the other Empires in history that have collapsed…

For What It’s Worth…  I saw this on Ed Steer’s letter last week, and saved it for all of you who own Silver… And it can be found here: UBS says silver poised for all-time high as investors flock to precious metals By Investing.com

Or, here’s your snippet: “Investing.com — Silver prices have surged to $42 an ounce, a 14-year high, on the back of record gold prices and a wave of investment inflows.

Following the rally, UBS has raised its forecasts for the metal, saying it could reach all-time highs in the coming year.

The bank now forecasts silver to trade at $44 an ounce by the end of 2025 and climb to $47 by mid-2026, aligning its outlook with a recent upgrade to gold.

“We flag that silver prices could reach an all-time high—a view that supports a long position in the metal or selling its downside risk for yield enhancement,” strategists Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon said in a note.

The rally comes despite sluggish global industrial activity, with investors drawn to silver by the same macro forces propelling gold.

UBS pointed to geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal deficits, slower growth, and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts as drivers of demand.

Silver’s strong correlation with gold, typically between 0.5 and 1.0, has amplified these effects.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows underline this trend. UBS highlights that silver-backed ETFs have added more than 20 million ounces this quarter alone, bringing this year’s total close to 80 million ounces.

While significant, holdings remain more than 200 million ounces below their pandemic-era peak in 2021.

Looking ahead, strategists see silver benefiting further as monetary conditions ease and investors look ahead to a cyclical recovery. The team expects the gold-silver ratio to decline toward 80, supporting relative outperformance for silver.”

Chuck again…  as I always say, be careful when a dealer writes a glowing article about something they sell, it means they have a boat load of supply and want to get rid of it….  But something is different about this message, that I agree with, and that is that Silver is on its way to $50, and only the STPs will impede its progress… 

Market Prices 9/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6595, kiwi .5861, C$ .7242, euro 1.1777, sterling 1.3497, Swiss $1.2600, European Style: rand 17.2789, krone 9.9281, SEK 9.3853, forint 330.49, zloty 3.6166, koruna 20.5959, RUB 83.55, yen 147.85, sing 1.2829, HKD 7.7707, INR 88.31, China 7.1124, peso 18.39, BRL 5.3343, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.47, Oil $62.37, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $43.69, Platinum $1,418.00, Palladium $1,172.00, Copper $4.64, and Gold… $3,725

That’s it for today… I’m heading out very soon this morning to the see my PCP… Every 6 mos., he wants to see me… I’m thinking that he will be happy that I gained some weight since I last saw him… He was the first to tell me to stop losing weight!  So, the letter will be out earlier than usual today, for I got up with the farmers while it was still dark-thirty out, to write, so I could get out of here and to the Medical Center..  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday VS the Gamecocks of S. Carolina… It was a real nail biter for me, but the offensive line took over the game, and it was no longer a nail biter at the end…. Little Evie was here on Saturday and Saturday night… She will be 6 in Rocktober, but she thinks she’s 16!  I cringe for my son, Andrew, who will have to deal with her at 16!  Trooper takes us to the finish line today with their 60’s song: Round, Round We Go… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself… 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Wednesday
• Chuck explains the shift in Trading Status around the world

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another absolutely beautiful day on the lake again yesterday… And once again as the day went on, we saw very few other boaters out, so we had the lake to ourselves, it seemed, once again. The Cardinals can’t stand prosperity and lost again yesterday, they are truly limping into the offseason, and that offseason should be very interesting, with our new GM in place… The Moody Blues greets me this morning with a song from their Seventh Sojourn Album, which happens to be one of the albums I would have on my isolated island… The song is: Isn’t Life Strange…

Well, as Ed Steer says… ” Da Boyz Crushed The Metals” I told you yesterday that the SPTs were taking down Gold & Silver as I was writing, as they were preparing for the rate cut announcement and they didn’t want to let the Metals rally on that news…  The news from the FOMC after the rate cut of 25 Basis Points (1/4%) was an indication that they, the Fed Heads would cut rates 2 more times this year… Not the 3more rate cuts the markets were expecting to hear about, but 2 more than we’ll be very sorry to see… I’m just saying…

And the dollar rallied on all that Fed speak… Wait, What? You mean to tell me that the Fed Heads are going to debase the dollar 2 more times this year, with inflation going hog wild, and the dollar bugs bought dollars? Criminy! That’s preposterous! And almost unbelievable, but it is what it is… and for that the BBDXY gained 2 index points since yesterday morning and starts today at 1,191… The euro is still above 1.18, so there’s that, I don’t think the foreign traders are thinking that this all could be good for the dollar… 

Gold lost $30 yesterday, and closed the day at $3,658… After getting oh, so close to $3,700 on Tuesday… Just another buying opportunity before Gold takes off on another run higher, in my humble opinion… Silver lost 90-cents on the day, and closed at $41.58, after getting oh, so, close to $43 on Tuesday… The wolf is always at the door, and in this case the wolf broke through the door! 

The bond boys don’t seem to be on board with the 2 more rates cuts theme filtering through the markets today, as the 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.07%. And the price of Oil remained in the $64 handle yesterday… 

In the overnight markets last night… The general feeling, it seems to me, is that the markets aren’t sure what to think  about the 2 more rate cuts scenario for the U.S.  I told you yesterday that this rate cut isn’t going to help the labor problem in the U.S. It’s all really for show, and no go…  The BBDXY is at 1,191 to start our day today… and it’s almost like the markets are exhausted from all the build-up of the FOMC shenanigans… 

Well, what to say? I guess we just pick up the pieces and put Humpty Dumpty back together again, eh?  Longtime reader Bob, sent me a note that had to maps on it… The first one was from 2000 and it showed in color the countries that had favored trading with the U.S. and China… The U.S. was blue, China pink…  And the map from 2000 showed that the U.S. had the favored trading status of most of the world…  Now, switch to the 2020 map and the roles are reversed, most of the world is now pink, and only the U.S. and the U.K are blue…  Aye, Aye, Aye… Shiver me timbers as Popeye would say if he saw this map…  I know, that I was ahead of this years ago, writing for the Sovereign Society, and pointing out the currency agreements that China as signing with countries, which basically removed the dollar from the terms of trade… And set up China to do business with these countries… 

Now, if you were a country and China came to you and said, “Let’s swap our currencies when doing a trade” Wouldn’t you jump at that chance to  not have a boat load of dollars in your reserve?  It just made trading easy peasy…  And that… my friends, is the reason for the change in the map in 20 years… 

Well, The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday, marking its first cut since March, as the central bank moves to stimulate a weakened economy. I think that the BOC got scared with all the tariffs, and what not in Canada, and decided to cut rates and point to the weakened economy… 

I read where the CIO of Morgan Stanley made the switch that I’ve been harping about for decades now…  He said to change your portfolio mix from 60/40 (Stocks & Bonds) to 60/ 20/ 20…  reducing the bond piece and adding Gold…   Well, I was never one to believe that you should just own Gold… Gold & Silver was my mix that I would show attendees of my presentations… And then show how they reduced the over risk of the portfolio… 

I think that we’re going to see foreign markets move away from the dollar, folks… They see what’s going on here, and they don’t like it… Not that their situation is much better, if that, but they want to deal with their own problems and not that of the U.S.  I’m just saying… 

So, the dollar is in trouble… Trouble in that the value or purchasing power of the dollar is in deep dookie, going forward… Are you ready?

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us today, other than the Leading Indicators for last month, this data set has been negative for so long now, that I can’t imagine when it will ever be positive again… 

To recap… The FOMC did indeed cut rates 25 Basis Points yesterday, and then indicated that they would have 2 more rate cuts this year…  so in all 75 Basis Points of dollar debasement, and the dollar rallied… Yes, that’s true… And Chuck is beside himself and losing his religion on that news… The Bank of Canada freaked out and on the tariffs and 25 Basis Points from their internal rate… And China now holds court over the favorite trading status around the world… What happened? Chuck explains…

For What It’s Worth… I found this article on Kitco.com this morning, and thought this guy has been reading my mind… It’s about how the FOMC should be hiking rates not cutting them and it can be found here: The Fed should actually raise rates to counter economic and political damage, but it won’t – Barchart’s Newsom | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Fed should actually raise rates to counter economic and political damage, but it won’t – Barchart’s Newsom teaser image

(Kitco News) – The Federal Reserve should disregard the President’s wishes and market expectations and hike rates at today’s meeting – tamping down inflation while pushing back on political interference – but it will most likely succumb to both and deliver a 25-basis-point cut, according to Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com.

“It’s interesting to listen to the rhetoric – I’m sorry, I mean debate – regarding what Chairman Powell should announce,” Newsom wrote ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s rate decision. “The interesting thing about this ongoing ‘debate’ is that most of it has nothing to do with economics but falls along political lines instead. Stop and think about it for a moment: Most of the opinions, loudly expressed, would fall on the other side of the debate if a member of the opposing party occupied the big chair in the US White House.”

Newsom said it’s odd to have a sitting U.S. president pushing the Fed to lower interest rates when the move would signal “the economy is suffering due to his one-word trade policy.”

“[W]hat tends to happen when interest rates are lowered is that the country’s currency tends to weaken,” he said. “And when a currency weakens, the price of goods and services tends to go up. This after the US continues to deal with the self-imposed consumer tax also known as ‘tariffs.’”

Newsom pointed out what happened from 2018 to 2020 “when the ongoing trade wars and tariffs were new” and President Trump demanded interest rates stay low, or even become negative. “The US is still dealing with the fire of inflation that was fanned back then,” he said. “Why does the US president want low to negative interest rates? Because he equates the economy with US stock indexes, and the latter tends to trend up as interest rates move down.”

Chuck again… See what I mean about him reading my mind? Or, maybe he’s a stealth Pfennig Reader! Yeah, that’s the ticket! 

Market Prices 9/18/2025: American Style: A$ .6648, kiwi .5901, C$ .7255, euro 1.1817, sterling 1.3620, Swiss $ 1.2663, European Style: rand 17.3563, krone 9.8062, SEK 9.3084, forint 328.86, zloty 3.6020, koruna 20.5622, RUB 83.03, yen 147.40, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.7773, INR 88.13, China 7.1056, peso 18.23, BRL 5.2721, BBDXY 1,192, Dollar Index 97.06, Oil $64.37, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $41.62, Platinum $1,406.00, Palladium $1,177.00, Copper $4.60, and Gold… $3,666

That’s it for today and this week…  Well, the bacon is frying on the Blackstone, and my sniffer is going crazy right now… The sun came up over the lake today and beautiful… And once again the lake looks like a sheet of ice this morning, so calm… before the boaters get out… Well, my time here at Bull Shoals Lake will come to and end today, as we head back home, it was a great trip here, great company, good times, and we ate like Kings, it’ll take me a few days back home to get this extra poundage I’ve accumulated here off again…  Head East takes us to the Finish Line today with their 70’s song: Never Been Any Reason… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets smoked yesterday
• Chuck Opines…

Good Day,,, and a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I’m sitting out on a deck this morning, it’s dark out so I can’t see the lake yet, but the sun will be rising soon, so there’s that… My beloved Cardinals won last night, but we were too busy sitting out on the deck singing along with my phone’s music, that we forgot about the game!  Oh well, worse things could’ve happened! Procol Harum greets me this morning with their song: Conquistador…

The dollar got smoked yesterday and not on a Big Green Egg… The BBDXY lost  7 index points and closed the day at 1,188… The new weak dollar trend is in place, now, so buckle up buttercups, this is going to be a long journey for the dollar downward… And that will make the U.S. Gov’t happy, for they want so badly to get exports running, and to have a cheaper dollar is their goal… They may tell us that they believe in a strong dollar while having their fingers crossed behind their backs… I’m just saying…

Gold was on a tear yesterday morning, as we drove down HWY 44, and I told my friend, Rick, that Gold was nearing $3,700, and that Silver was nearing $43…  And, then they weren’t… The SPTs came in and nixed those moves higher, with arms full of short paper contracts and Gold’s gain on the day was reduced to a couple of bucks gain on the day…  Gold closed yesterday at $3,692… And Silver saw the same kind of trading that Gold did, and end the day at $42.50…  Those wily ba$%#$^W’s.  I was taught as a young man to not hate… especially people, but in this case I think even my mother would approve of my dislike for price manipulators!

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day trading with a $64 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield was ratched downward to end the day with a 4.01% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw a bit of buying… I’ve told you before and I’ll tell you again, the dollar’s weak trend is not a ONE WAY STREET! So, the BBDXY is up one index point overnight… The euro is trading above 1.18 this morning… I’ve also reitterated to you more times than I can count, that the euro is the offset currency of the dollar… So, when you really want to know how the dollar is doing just look at the euro…  

But, with the dollar getting some buying this morning, the currencies have backed off their lofty figures from yesterday’s close in the U.S. I do want to point out that the Chinese renmibi is really on a tear, and sits this morning at 7.1045…  That’s move yesterday was the one of the largest moves by the Peoples Bank of China I can recall…  So, the currencies’ premature death has been greatly exaggerated!   

Gold has been sold down the river overnight and this morning in the early trading. Gold is down $22 to start our day today, and on “FOMC Rate Cut Day” too! The SPTs had to make sure Gold got a rought start ahead of the rate cut announcement this afternoon. And Silver is down over $1 to start our day today… I’d say that the SPTs are really working diligently to get these metals looking rough today, ahead of the rate cut announcement… 

I read a piece on Monday afternoon that got me thinking… Uh-Oh, I hear you saying, here he goes again!  Well, pardon me! But this needs to be said… The article was about when you price everything that we use in Gold… The items are cheaper, and we actually have deflation going on…   Of course we don’t use Gold to price these things any longer, for if we did….  Ahhh….  Ok, sit back and let me tell you a story and wrap it up in a nice bow… 

This from Bill Bonner’s private research newsletter: “Lyndon Johnson famously overspent on ‘guns and butter.’ Especially the guns…and especially in Vietnam. The banks in Vietnam were relics of the French colonial empire. So, dollars piled up in Paris. And in 1971, the shrewd finance minister at the time, Valery Giscard d’Estaing, sent a French warship to New York to collect on America’s promise to redeem those dollars at 35 dollars per ounce of gold.

That was the proximate cause of Nixon’s August 15, 1971 proclamation ‘closing the gold window’ at the Treasury department and replacing the good-as-gold dollar with a piece of paper. And since the U.S. could ‘print’ as many pieces of paper as it wanted, it allowed politicians to approve bigger and bigger deficits and bigger and bigger ‘defense’ budgets, much of the money from which — captured by contractors, lobbyists, politicians, and think tanks — never left the Washington D.C. area.

And this same dollar, that financed the huge growth in debt and firepower, also gave the U.S. a new weapon. The Trump administration showed the world how the dollar could be used to bludgeon enemies and whip friends to keep them in line.”

Chuck again, and here’s where I opine…  Had we, as a country never gone off the Gold backing we would never be in the financial mess that we are in today… Yes, we would have gone a lot slower in the the new millenieum, but without all the debt and worries that have all time about paying the bills the country owes…  But, we’re not and we still have a $37 Trillion nut to deal with… I’ll say no more on this … now that is!

Well, today is the “FMOC Rate Cut Day”…  I’ll bust my buttons and send them flying across the room as attack darts if the Fed Heads keep rates unchanged today… I’m expecting a 25 Basis Points (1/4%) rate cut to be announced this afternoon.  The labor market is shambles, but a rate cut isn’t going to help that, in my humble opinion… The Fed Heads are bowing to pressure by the Sec. Treasury, and POTUS to cut rates now and 3 more times this year…. And they will be darned to keep the boys in D.C. In waiting any longer to get started…

But do you really think the Fed Heads will get to 3 more rate cuts this year? I doubt it, for by the time it’s the second time to cut rates, that inflation will be so strong, and that to cut rates again then, will be suicide for the economy, financials, and middle class… 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I also doubt that all that consumer debt that is being put on charge cards is going to see much of a drop of their interest rates on the debt, from the FOMC rate cut…  20% is what some of the cards are charging right now… You want it… pay cash or don’t buy it! That’s been my M. O. For as long as I can remember… 

The U.S Data Cupboard yesterday had Retail Sales, and you might recall me telling you on Monday that the BHI indicated that it would be a good one… And it was with Retail Sales rising .6% in August…  But what the bean counters don’t tell you is that most of that gain is from inflation…  Here’s the skinny from Zerohedge.com: “Online sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing..

Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline…

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY…   

Chuck again… Interesting, very interesting… 

To recap… The dollar got sold BIG TIME yesterday, and Chuck believes the new weak dollar trend is now in place… But the dollar is seeing a bit of buying this morning… no One Way Street here… Chuck talks about Gold this morning, you won’t want to have missed his opine…

For What It’s Worth… this article came to me from long time reader Bob… and it’s about something I’ve talked about previously, and that is that we’re heading to stagflation, and it can be found here: Threat of stagflation bears down on world’s largest economy as Federal Reserve decision looms – ABC News

Or, here’s your snippet:” The US Federal Reserve — the world’s largest central bank — is now less than 24 hours from announcing one of the most anticipated interest rate decisions of the year.

There are no prizes, though, for guessing what the bank will do.

An interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point is seen as likely by financial markets because the US economy is showing signs of weakness.

But here’s the problem: American inflationary pressures still linger.

And if the Fed — as it’s known — does cut interest rates, it could stimulate demand in everything from consumer goods to housing, and that could further stoke inflation, alongside tariff-induced inflation.

At the same time, employment growth has stalled, which may push unemployment higher.

The economic malaise is seeing the US dollar weaken and the price of gold soar to record highs.

It all has many analysts quite spooked.

“It’s telling me there’s uncertainty,” said Head of Macro Research at London City’s Ninety One, Sahil Mahtani.”

Chuck again… a longer article that I couldn’t include all of it here, so go to the link if you want more… 

Market Prices 9/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6677, kiwi .5982, C$ .7255, euro 1.1836, sterling 1.3647, Swiss $1.2609, European Style: rand 17.3770, krone 9.8167, SEK 9.2629, forint 329.55, zloty 3.5943, koruna 20.5591, RUB 83.02, yen 146.39, sing 1.2764, HKD 7.7757, INR 87.81, China 10.1041, peso 18.29, BRL 5.3050, BBDXY 1,189, Dollar Index 97.65, Oil $64.23, 10-year 4.02%, Silver $41.87, Platinum $1,372.00, Palladium $1,172.00, Copper $4.62, and Gold… $3,675…  

That’s it for today… the sun has come up, the lake is so calm now that it appears to be a sheet of ice… Very beautiful setting here on the deck… I could do this every day… in the summer that is… Winters are for the South for me! Out on the lake yesterday, it was much like the song the Boys of Summer… We had the lake to ourselves! No one else was out and we enjoyed the day immensely… The band Sweet take us to the finish line today with their song: Ballroom Blitz…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday last week
• The overnight markets are no respite for the dollar

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Summer returned to the St. Louis area for the past 5 days, and this week the temps will be quite hot again. That limits my time outside reading, but que sera, sera…  My beloved Cardinals finally beat the Brewers yesterday! 3-2…  They went a horrible 1-5 on the road trip… Sad, play…   Smoked some pork tenderloins on the Big Green Egg yesterday… YUMMY!  I don’t like where I have my outdoor cooking apparatuses, they are in the direct sun in the afternoon heat… But, I have nowhere else to put them, so I bake while I cook outside in the summer…  Gerry Raferty greets me this morning with his song: Baker Street… 

Well, last Thursday 9/11, that I missed writing, was certainly interesting.. But first, there was a disturbance in the field on Wednesday, when PPI (Wholesale Inflation) was engineered to show that wholesale prices had dropped in August… The Annual PPI also showed slippage…  Ever wonder how the bean counters can manipulate this data set?  Well, I’m sure there are hedonic adjustments in there, but to put blankly, The just fudge the numbers to their liking… 

On Thursday, our second day of infamy for the country, that we should NEVER Forget…  The STUPID CPI held court over the markets and The STUPID CPI showed that inflation had risen .4% in August to a year-on-year rate of 2.9%…  And once again, I ask the question, “Why would we as a country, cut interest rates now?” These rates of inflation are buggered downward by the Hedonic Adjustments. We all know that inflation is much higher right now, right? John Williams says if the bean counters calculated inflation the way it used to be calculated it would be closer to 10%…   

And don’t get me started on the Core CPI… The calc that takes out Food & Energy… as if we don’t use these two daily, right?  Well, The Core CPI showed a 3.1% year-on-year gain… 

The dollar got sold… Bonds were bought… Gold which had been down a lot in the early trading came back, along with Silver, as yet, another notch has been put in the rate cutter’s belt… Thursday saw the BBDXY lose 4 index points to end the day at 1,197, and bonds to lose 4 percentage points in yield on the day ,( bond price was higher), and Gold to come back from being down in the morning to almost getting back to its ending price the previous day. Gold finished Thursday at $3,635 and Silver finished the day at $41.59…  Oil was $62.24, and the 10-year was 4.03% yield… 

Friday brought us news that the U.S. government reported a $345 billion deficit for August, larger than expected…  One more month to go in the U.S.’s fiscal year that ends in Sept. I told you last week that we as a country were already on our way to $38 Trillion in debt… And this report plays well with that thought.  I have some more on the Deficit in the FWIW section today, so stay tuned.. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel… 

Gold finished the week up $8 to $3,645… And Silver kicked some tail and gained 61-cents to $42.25… I can’t believe the SPTs allowed Silver to cross over the $42 handle… Remember, the wolf is always at the Door….  The Dollar gained back an index point on Friday, and finished the week with the BBDXY at 1,198…  

The BBBDXY is down -8.33% ytd…  That means that the currencies have rallied so far this year VS the dollar… Remember the BBDXY is a gathering of the U.S. best trading partners’ currencies… Whereas the Dollar Index is so heavily weighted with euros that it gives a skewed picture of the Dollar’s overall performance…  Why is the Dollar Index so heavily weighted with euros, I hear you asking?  Because of all the legacy currencies that were converted to euros 26 years ago…  So, now you know! 

In the overnight markets last night…  there was additional dollar selling and the BBDXY starts our day/ week down 3 index points to 1,195… I still don’t know what was on the minds of the dollar bugs last Thursday when the dollar rallied, but that’s in our rear-view mirror now, so as my good friend and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter would say.. Onward and Upward! The weak dollar trend that I told you about a couple of weeks ago, was beginning is slow to start, but when the rate cuts come, and the dollar is getting debased, well… the weak dollar trend will be evident to all who watch it…  

Gold is down $6 to start our day/ week this morning… Looks like profit taking to me…  Silly geese… If you really want to take profits in your Gold, why not wait until Gold has reached the moon?  I’m just saying… Silver is also off to start our day / week this morning by 7-cents… Again, not SPTs, but simply profit taking, in my eye… 

The price of Oil has is trading with a $62 handle this morning, and the Fed Heads just won’t keep their hands out of the cookie jar, with regard to the 10-year Treasury’s yield… They continue to manipulate it to their liking…  Serenity NOW!  These Fed Heads are giving me a rash!  The 10-year’s yield sits at 4.05% to start our day / week this morning… 

The European Central Bank (ECB) left their internal rate unchanged last week, which was good for the euro… The euro finished the week above the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog off of the porch to chase the dollar down the street… 

Also last week, Mexico announced that they were going to apply 50% tariffs on China…  And China responded, this from Bloomber.com “China urged Mexico to “think twice” before levying tariffs, warning that any unilateral tariff increase would be seen as “appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying”. 

Chuck again, yes, China warned the Mexican Gov’t that the Chinese thought that Mexico was just doing that to appease the U.S….  That should have been enough saber rattling to get Mexico to back off… I guess we’ll see…

I found this on Zerohedge.com …. “U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added.”

Chuck again… job losses, higher prices, and a stock market that is overbought by miles… Yes, that would put me in a foul mood if someone asked me how confident I am about the economy… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week also had the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week, and they exploded higher to 263,000 (from 236,000 )… Finally, all those layoffs that businesses have been announcing, are starting to show up here… We also saw the Consumer Sentiment for so far this month on Friday, and it showed that it fell as I just wrote about above… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to print this from Tom Woods, email 9/11/2025… “You and I are demonized by media and cultural establishments that are at once sinister and low-IQ, the public is systematically lied to about matters of existential significance, we are taught to look upon our civilization with embarrassment and shame — and this is all so drearily predictable that we’ve almost come to think of it as normal.”

This quote from Tom Woods came in the same the letter where he talked about the assassination of Charlie Kirk…  If you read Tom Woods like I do daily…  You know what I’m talking about here, if you don’t…  Why wouldn’t you?  I’m just saying… 

And the Wall Street Journal had this on Friday: “American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math.”

Chuck again… no way that my darling is insufficient in math and reading, he’s so brilliant!  It’s the teacher’s fault, that’s who is to blame! But wait, here… Shouldn’t you as the parent be responsible for your child and their development? I’m just saying… 

I don’t know why I was compelled to include that last bit, other than to point out that the education system needs to be revised… Not every kid needs to go to college, no more student loans, and only kids that are brilliant go to college, and then those that can pay for their own way…   I’m going to tick off a lot of people with that last bit, but, Shoot Rudy, I can’t make all of the people happy, all of the time! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last Friday, had the Consumer Sentiment reading for the first two weeks of this month, and it showed that U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row, down from 58.2 to 55.4…  Apparently, the rising inflation was the cause of this drop…  And to think that a rate cut is coming, is preposterous to me… But not to the stock jockeys and the POTUS!

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have a couple of prints this week, to go along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday… Starting tomorrow we’ll see what kind of “back to school sales” helped Retail Sales….I would say that the BHI indicates to me that this could be a good print, because there hasn’t been a day that went by this last month, where a delivery of something wasn’t at our door… 

To recap…  Thursday saw Gold get sold, Friday saw Gold get bought… C’mon, what’s it gonna be boy? The data last week was not what you put down for a strong resilient economy, so there’s that…  The ECB left rates unchanged late last week, it’s about time they quit cutting them in Chuck’s mind…  And what’s a mother to do with their falling behind in math and reading child?

For What It’s Worth…  I found this on moneymetals.com and it talks about the how the tariffs revenue won’t even begin to cover the monthly deficit garnered by the U.S. Gov’t, and it can be found here: Another Massive Budget Deficit in August as Tariff Revenue Can’t Fill the Hole

Or, here’s your snippet: “Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit.

So much for import duties paying for the government.

That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem.

The Trump administration ran a $344.79 billion budget deficit in August. That was about $35 billion lower than last August. However, it was still the second-highest budget deficit charted this year.

The August deficit pushed the fiscal 2025 shortfall to $1.97 trillion with one month left. In fiscal 2024, the federal deficit was $1.82 trillion.

The U.S. pulled in $29.5 billion in customs duties in August, a staggering 321.4 percent increase. That pushed August receipts to $344.32 billion, a 12.3 percent increase year-over-year.

Through the first 11 months of fiscal 2025, the U.S. government brought in $165.2 billion in customs duties. That’s up $95.5 billion from the same period in fiscal ’24.

In total, the federal government has collected $4.69 trillion so far in fiscal 2025. That’s 6.8 percent higher than through the same period last year.

That’s a healthy revenue increase for any organization.

Unless that organization spends without restraint.

That’s exactly what the federal government does, and spending is going up even faster than revenue.

A lot faster!”

Chuck again… And then there’s the question of whether we, as a country, will have to rebate a ton of those tariffs already taken…    I had a reader chastise me last week when I mentioned that possibility…  I don’t know why, for I’ve been anti-tariffs since they were just an idea in the head of the POTUS!

Market Prices 9/15/2025; American Style: A$.6662, kiwi .5965, C$ .7245, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3515, Swiss $1.2580, European Style: rand 17.3289, krone 9.8228, SEK 9.2726, forint 331.61, zloty 3.6123, koruna 20.6040, RUB 82.34, yen 147.34, sing 1.2809, HKD 7.7787, sing 1.2809, INR 88.21, China 7.1219, peso 18.41, BRL 5.3351, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 97.34, Oil $62.95, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $42.18, Platinum $1,399.00, Palladium $1,215.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,638

That’s it for today… A very hot temps weekend here in my little river town… Shoot Rudy, I even made it to our pool yesterday to cool off!  No Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ve be traveling to a good friend’s lake house for a few days… I’ll write from there, no worries, but not tomorrow… I’m so happy to be able to go… Two weeks ago, when Kevin called me, I was still dealing with weakness from not eating and I told him I would have play it by ear…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday, and now begin their SEC regular season this coming Saturday… Go Tigers!   And tomorrow is the 16^th of Sept… Halfway to St. Patrick’s Day! I better pack a green shirt to wear tomorrow!  Blood, Sweat, and Tears takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Our opposites scenario plays out on Tuesday
• A correction ahead for the metals? Probably not…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I forgot to mention to you all that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow… I have two, count ’em, two doctor appts, the first is with my Oncologist, who will not be happy that I won’t be able to get my usual monthly infusion this time because of me being on steroids…  And the second one is with the doctor that put the Watchman device on my heart last year… The need to make sure that there are no leaks…   The Allman Brothers greets me this morning with their live version of the song: One Way Out… 

Well, my suspicions were correct that the BLS did revise their jobs numbers for the last year downward by 911,000 not 1,000,000 as was rumored… This is for jobs the BLS say were created between April 2024 and March 2025..  And guess what the dollar did? It rallied! No kidding, I wouldn’t kid you, on something like that, thus proving once again that we like in a time of Opposites…  The new BLS chief jefe is still to be confirmed by Congress, but I’m sure he wasn’t as pleased about potentially getting the job, as before…   Just for grins, I went to the BLS site for Birth/Death jobs and since March of this year the BLS has already added 963,000 jobs out of thin air that next year, will be part of the revision again…  I’m just saying…

So, the BBDXY saw a gain of 3 index points yesterday to end the day at 1,201… And Gold, which immediately rallied on the jobs revision, saw the SPT’s take away Gold’s gains on the day, and Gold ended up down $11 at $3,625…  Silver was in the same boat as Gold, and saw the SPT’s take away Silver’s shine for the day by 44-cents to end the day at $40.92… The SPT’s can’t stand to see Silver above $41… And they will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Gold & Silver Bugs… 

I don’t like the fact that Kitco.com won’t call the selling in Gold & Silver for what it really is… Short Paper Traders… Instead, they call it “mild profit taking” after Gold reached a new all-time high… But to each his own, right? But to call a $11 swing “mild profit taking” is stretching the cord a bit, don’t you agree? 

The price of Oil bumped higher again, with this back and forth for the price of Oil, this is giving me a rash… Oil ended the day with a $63 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury saw more selling yesterday as the yield on the bond rose from 4.04% in the morning to 4.07% to end the day… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, when I retired last night, the dollar was getting sold and the BBDXY was down to 1,1997, and I thought “Well, the foreign markets at least see the U.S. economy is shakier than their counterparts in the U.S.”. But upon waking up this morning, (which wasn’t easily done I might add) I see where that thought was so wrong it was almost right! The Dollar is flat to start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,201…  The euro has slipped back below the 1.17 hqndle, and the loftiness of the currencies in recent days has just about abated… 

Gold is up $19 to start our day today, and Silver is back above $41 at $41.06, up 14-cents to start our Wonderful Wednesday…  Here’s a little ditty I found that should help Gold a bit… Poland’s Central Bank just announced it is planning to increase gold’s share of its total reserves from the current 20% to 30%. That comes after being the No.1 central bank gold buyer in 2024 (89.5 Tonnes).

The appetite for physical Gold isn’t being sated by Central Banks around the world, if only the U.S. investor would realize what’s going on and start buying Gold instead of the stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, or whatever the latest “phony favorite investment of the day is”… Gold would then be rallying every single day… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is stuck around 4.07% to start our day today. 

And speaking of the 10-year Treasury, I went back a found where the yield was on this bond at the turn of the year (Jan) at it was 4.80%…  But back then the markets and its participants were of the thought that the U.S. economy was on the right tracks… Of course, they could have read the Pfennig and known that wasn’t the case, but I digress…    The bond boys don’t believe in any magical economic miracles on the horizon so they have taken to believe the Fed Heads this time, that they will be cutting rates next week, and therefore the economy isn’t doing well…  And this works for the U.S. Treasury since the new bonds they will have to be issuing soon, won’t have as high of a yield on them, thus reducing the debt servicing costs… (interest rate)

Something that I found quite interesting in yesterday’s Bill Bonner’s Private Research newsletter…  First of all, do you remember that 2–3-year period in the U.S. right after the Covid debacle, when the period of time was referred to as “the Great Resignation”?  Yeah, that was when after being at home during the Covid debacle, people decided that they didn’t like their jobs any longer… and quit…  Well, yesterday, Bill Bonner told me that for the first time since April 2021, The U.S. has more Unemployed workers than Job Openings…   Uh-oh!  For those of you keeping score at home, The Total Unemployed in the U.S. is 7.24 Million,  VS 7.18 Million Job Openings…  How will the future participants of Social Security expect to receive their funds when there’s not enough workers to support the system? Aye, Aye, Aye…

And I was reading an article on Moneymetals.com about how we shouldn’t worry about a correction in the metals…  here’s a brief snippet about something I mentioned the other day regarding Gold being in the overbought side of the RSI… “Overbought readings should be ignored, as they are completely normal during strong uptrends and should actually be welcomed as signs of strength and momentum. That’s why I’m not at all concerned about the current overbought readings in gold and silver, unlike the Chicken Littles who are panicking and calling for a correction.”

Chuck again… Again, that’s one person’s viewpoint… But if I hadn’t experienced a collapse of the Silver price 20 or so years ago, I would agree wholeheartedly… But in this case, I’m just throwing it out there to see if it sticks to the wall… Shoot Rudy, I recall a time when at EverBank, that Gold was seeing a correction and was heading toward $750, even a well-known analyst called that Gold would fall to $700… Well, it didn’t even fall below $800, but still the correction was in, and then Gold had to work very hard to get back to $1,000.. The rest is history… Gold is $3,600 as I write… 

Well, the FOMC meets next Wednesday the 17th… What will it be boys? a 25 or 50 Basis Point cut? I guess we have a week to wait, eh?  With inflation rising again, even with the hedonic adjustments, I hope Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chief, Jerome Powell would stick to his guns and not cut rates… Because I’m deathly afraid of what the tariffs will do to the inflation rate, if given the chance to be implemented by the Courts…  Powell could really show his mettle if he kept rates unchanged, don’t you think? Not to be cow-towed by the POTUS… 

Right now there are odds of 88% that the rate cut will only be 25 Basis Points, and only 12% odds that the rate cut will be 50 Basis Points…   So, now you know… 

I know, the labor market is shot…  and that it needs a rate cut, but… at what cost? If inflation takes off because of the tariffs like I think it will, then what good will it be to have lower interest rates? Your job? It may be eliminated because of inflation, ever think of that? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the PPI (wholesale inflation)  and I believe we’ll see it rise to 3.3% annually.. .That means that consumer inflation will be heading higher and we’ll get the opportunity to see that the color of the STUPID CPI is tomorrow…   I know I’ve spent a lot of time talking about inflation this morning… Because I believe in my heart of hearts that it’s coming home to spread like a wildfire in the near future… And therefore… Got Gold?

To recap… The BLS did indeed revise their previous claims that the jobs market was strong by 911,000 jobs last year… it was over 800,000 the year before that and a lot the year before that… And at no time has the dollar gotten treated like a rented mule (no animals were hurt here) over these revisions… The dollar had rallied each month when the jobs numbers were so lofty… But when it comes to reversing that bullish trading in the dollar, crickets…   the dollar rallied on the revision, Gold saw the SPTS take its daily gains away, and Chuck spends a tone of time on inflation today… Are you ready for it? Got Gold?

For What It’s Worth… The good folks at GATA sent me this article that they pulled from the Economic Times site… It’s a theory of what the U.S. is going to do to address the astronomical debt that it has, and it can be found here: Putin’s advisor warns of US conspiracy to wipe out $35 trillion debt using crypto and gold market – The Economic Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “Anton Kobyakov, a senior Russian advisor to President Vladimir Putin, has alleged that the United States is orchestrating a scheme to offload its $35 trillion national debt by leveraging cryptocurrencies and gold. Kobyakov stated that Washington intends to “rewrite the rules” of these markets, positioning them as alternatives to the traditional global currency system. He gave these remarks during the Eastern Economic Forum, which was held in Vladivostok, Russia, with the purpose of encouraging foreign investment in the Russian Far East.

The United States’ national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, making it the largest in the world. This figure represents the total amount the federal government owes to creditors, including foreign governments, institutional investors, and US citizens through Treasury securities. The debt has been driven by decades of budget deficits, large-scale stimulus packages, military spending, and entitlement obligations such as Social Security and Medicare.

In a recent statement posted by RT’s X account, Kobyakov said, “The US is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt, 35 trillion dollars. These two sectors are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system.” He further asserted, “Washington’s actions in this area clearly highlight one of its main goals to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar.”

Chuck again… Well, at least the Gov’t see’s the danger in the loss of the Reserve Status for the dollar, but I’m not really sure this is the way to go about saving that… I would go about cutting deficit spending, first, and foremost…  Stop getting involved in everyone else’s wars, and bring our soldiers home…  Then there’s a laundry list of dirty shirts that need to be addressed in our Gov’t, and Congress, and Courts… But that’s a discussion for another day… 

Market Prices 9/10/2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .5943, C$ .7216, euro 1.1699, sterling 1.3531, Swiss $1.2531, European Style: rand 17.5449, krone 9.9223, SEK 9.3619, forint 336.19, zloty 3.6423, koruna 20.8479, RUB 84.67, yen 147.52, sing 1.2829, HKD 7.7900, INR 88.10, China 7.1233, peso 18.62, BRL 5.4364, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $63.29, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $41.06, Platinum $1,399.00, Palladium $1,199.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $3,644.

That’s it for today… And this week… sorry about tomorrow, but doctors appts take the precedence over writing…  Sort of like Discretion over Valor…   My beloved Cardinals played late in Seattle again last night and lost once again.  If the Cardinals were a hockey team, I would tell them to shine up their golf clubs, because that’s where they will be when the regular season ends in a few weeks…  UGH! The beginning of the year showed such a promise too…  double UGH!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers take on U of Louisiana on Saturday… Could be a “trap game” for my Tigers, let’s hope not! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their great song: Driftwood… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• Will we see 1,000,000 jobs taken away today?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! My beloved Cardinals played in Seattle last night, so it came on too late for me to watch the entire game… I did wake up in the middle of the night to see that they had lost 4-2. When I turned it off they were ahead 2-0… UGH!  Went out to dinner last night with our friends, Duane and Toni.. Fun times as always…  This will be a quite long Pfennig today, because I’ve got a section that I took from the 5 Bullets letter, that I think is important for our country right now, and going forward…  Spoiler Alert: the fertility rate, in the U.S. has fallen to historic lows according to the CDC… Elvis Presley greets me this morning with his ballad song: Are You Lonesome Tonight… 

Well, the dollar was getting sold in the overnight markets Sunday night, and that selling carried through to the U.S. market yesterday… The BBDXY lost 4 Index points from Friday’s Close, and Gold continued to take advantage of the weaker dollar…   There are a couple of the currencies that are really rising with the weaker dollar too, and they include: the euro, sterling, Swiss francs, Norwegian Krone, Chinese renminbi, and others to a lesser degree…  

Gold gained $49 yesterday, and ended the day at $3,636… Silver also gained yesterday, and this time it was up 31-cents, to end the day at $41.36…  Abd here’s a note that the good folks at GATA sent me regarding Silver… They took it from Bloomberg.com: ” Surging lease rates for silver are once again upending the precious metals market, with traders fearing that possible US tariffs could squeeze already tight supplies in London as price dislocations re-emerge between key trading hubs.”

You know, I get caught in this trap quite a bit often, in that I say that Gold gained… But in the end, it’s the dollar losing value that is helping Gold to reach new highs…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil saw slippage yesterday after the Saudi’s said they would ramp up production again this Autumn… The price of Oil slid to end the day trading with a $62 handle…  And the 10-year continues to see its yield drop like a rock, as the yield ended the day with a 4.04% yield…  And now…. The markets are thinking that a 50 Basis Point rate cut is coming instead of a 25 Basis Points cut… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold some more, with the BBDXY starting this morning at 1,197…   The currencies all look healthier than they’ve been in some time, and in my humble opinion, that will continue to take shape, as the dollar goes deeper into the new weak trend…  The dollar is in deep dookie folks… I’m just saying…   

Gold continues to shine, and is up $17 to start our day today, and Silver is flat to down 3-cents to start today… I have more on Silver later, so stay tuned…  I really think that Gold is on a new upward phase, that will take it to new heights…  Got Gold?  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle overnight, and the 10-year finally saw some sellers. The Bond Boys have really pushed the envelope of bond price appreciation ( yield loss), and maybe they said, “Hey! We’re going too fast here, let’s slow down”…  The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond starts today at 4.07%

It was last week that I told you that Washington last month categorized Silver as critical to US national security… And I told you that it would end up being a very good thing for the Silver price…    This could very well be the beginning of the end for the SPT’s, for if their borrowing costs keep going higher, it will put a damper on their profits… 

A week ago, or so, I told you that France’s PM made a very revealing speech about his country’s finances or lack of them as it would be… And yesterday, he got canned! The country’s lawmakers voted him out the door.. See what happens when you tell people the truth, but they refuse to hear it?  Or refuse to accept the truth and still believe that their country is blessed and everything will turn out peaches and Cream… 

OK… this is where I go off the rails a bit, but in the end you’ll see what I’m getting after with this piece by David Gonigam in his  5 Bullets newsletter yesterday… So, take it away, Dave!

“A few days ago, The Washington Post got its hands on a five-page draft summary of a policy paper that Heritage has in the works. It blames the baby bust on “free love, pornography, careerism, the Pill, abortion, same-sex relations and no-fault divorce,” while calling for a “Manhattan Project to restore the nuclear family.”

Among the solutions it’s recommending to the Trump administration…

New government-seeded savings accounts for married people

Redirecting child-care funding away from programs like Head Start and toward individual families

An executive order requiring all proposed government policies and rules to “measure their positive or negative impacts on marriage and family.”

If this all sounds like government getting up in people’s business… well, it is.

One of the Post’s anonymous sources described an internal debate going into the document’s preparation. “That paper is not a compromise between the limited government folks and the big government folks. It is an outright steamrolling of the limited government folks.”

Heritage is glossing over the real problem — one your editor addressed head-on last year when JD Vance made news with his remarks about “childless cat ladies.”

The real problem is highlighted by a new and depressing Wall Street Journal-NORC survey…

Only 25% of Americans believe they have “a good chance of improving their standard of living” — an all-time low in data going back to 1987

Nearly 70% believe hard work does not translate to getting ahead — a low in 15 years of survey data

And most revealing… Over 75% doubt that children today will live a better life than their parents.

If you don’t believe your kids will live a better life than you… well, that’s a powerful disincentive to have kids in the first place, right?

That problem doesn’t get solved by new government-funded savings accounts.

It gets solved only when a middle-class lifestyle becomes affordable once again, and on a single income.

That means, among other things, an end to the health care cartel and the higher-education racket.”

Chuck again… This article is much longer folks, but you get the gist… Couples just aren’t having kids at the same rate as previously, and this will eventually come back to haunt the U.S.’s finances… Their Ponzi Scheme called Social Security, and other things…  I’m just saying… 

I also have this link to an article from one of my fave reads: Matthew Piepenburg… It’s about artificial intelligence and it can be found here: Markets, AI & The Great Dumbing

Chuck again… In case you do go to the link, read the article, you might want to know how I took it… I loved it! And I agree 100%, and I especially loved this statement: “Artificial” is the antithesis of genuine, and any intelligence that is artificial is inherently the very opposite of intelligence.”  I rest my case… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed us that Consumer Credit (read debt) had exploded in July to $16 Billion, I say exploded because in June the number was $9.6 Billion… So, once again, I think that credit cards, lines of credit, refinancings, and other kinds of loans to create debt is going in the wrong direction, and illustrates the U.S. Consumer as tapped out of cash… 

Today is the day that we’re supposed to be seeing the BLS make a downward revision, taking away 1,000,000 jobs that they created out of thin air, but no longer can validate… Like I said yesterday, 1.8 Million jobs have been taken off the board by the BLS, in the last two years, that is if the 1,000,000 jobs are really taken away… 

Again, I think the euro will be being pulled in two different directions going forward from the fallout from France, and the fact that the euro is still the offset currency to the dollar… Rather, I said last week, you might want to look at the Swiss franc, or even the Norwegian krone… Sterling is OK… but when the dollar really does a deep dive into the weak dollar trend its beginning now, you’ll be able to pick out a currency that you like, and watch it gain…  At least that’s what happened in the last weak dollar trend… 

But, if you’re full of risk… Then I’ll tell you that traders are betting that the euro will rise to 1.20…  The next stop for the euro is 1.18, where a ton of stop loss orders lie, and that could really propel the euro higher…   Just a fair and balanced opinion of the euro , what else would you expect from me?

To Recap… Consumers are spending like there’s no tomorrow… The dollar is getting taken to the woodshed… Gold & Silver are the shining lights of investments…  Chuck carries on about fertility rates, and finally… is the BLS going to announce a downward revision to job creation for this year of 1,000,000 jobs today?  

For What It’s Worth… This article comes to me from the good folks at GATA who found it on Reuters… You need to read this folks… Gold’s rise in central bank reserves appears unstoppable | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Worries over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical instability are raising questions about the stability of long-term Treasuries, traditionally the world’s safest asset. In response, many central banks are turning back to that “barbarous relic”, gold.

The fortunes of gold and government bonds have diverged sharply this year, a split highlighted this week as the price of bullion struck a new high and many long-dated bond yields hit levels not seen in years or, in some cases, ever.

U.S. Treasuries haven’t sold off nearly as sharply as European or Japanese bonds, largely because U.S. debt still enjoys solid underlying demand from central banks and other official institutions managing foreign exchange reserves.

But Treasuries have essentially been “treading water” in global reserve portfolios in recent years, while central banks’ gold holdings have mushroomed, thanks to accelerating demand and soaring prices.

Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar and, for the first time since 1996, gold represents a bigger share of central banks’ reserves than Treasuries.

Central banks now hold 36,000 tons of gold, according to a European Central Bank study, having hoovered up huge volumes since the post-pandemic inflation spike and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They have increased their holdings by more than 1,000 metric tons in each of the last three years, a record pace and double the average annual purchases in the preceding decade.

With the price of gold currently above $3,500 an ounce – up a whopping 35% so far this year – central banks’ gold holdings are now worth around $4.5 trillion. That’s significantly more than their $3.5 trillion stash of Treasuries.

Moreover, Treasuries’ share of total reserves has been shrinking in recent years. It is now only 23%, by some measures, down from previous peaks of more than 30% in the 2010s, and below gold’s current 27% share.”

Chuck Again…  let me ask this one more time…. Got Gold?

Market Prices 9/9/ 2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .5951, C$ .7347, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3569, Swiss $1.2599, European Style: rand 17.4712, krone 9.9618, SEK 9.3673, forint 334.83, zloty 3.6223, koruna 20.7148, RUB 83.78, yen 146.60, sing 1.2809, HKD 7.7887, INR 88.11, China 7.1212, peso 18.62, BRL 5.4195, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.41, Oil $62.78, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $41.33, Platinum $1,405.00, Palladium $1,162.00, Copper $4.55, and Gold… $3,653.

That’s it for today… Another absolutely beautiful day here in my little river town… I sat outside for 2 hours reading… The doctors have me on steroids right now, tapering down at this point, so in taking them, I no longer need an afternoon nap!  I do have problems falling asleep at night though… But too much longer and I’ll be off them. At least, I’m eating again… Two weeks ago, I wasn’t eating much, and my weight had fallen dramatically, to a level I hadn’t seen since I was 18 in High School! The doctor told me to STOP losing weight! Not that I was thin in any stretch of the imagination, just that losing it so quickly wasn’t healthy… Did I ever tell you that I wrestled in H.S.? I wrestled the 185 weight class, but only weighed 172…  It was difficult to wrestle someone at 17-18 years old that had more than 10 lbs of muscle on you! I did win a few matches… I was never in better physical shape than when I wrestled!  Sugar Ray takes us to the finish line today with their song: Every Morning… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler