Author: admin

• dollar rallies and closes the gap on its losses last week
• Gold is in a liquidity crisis….

Good Day.. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What the heck has happened to my beloved Cardinals’ pitching? It has surrendered multiple runs in recent games, and they don’t look as if they have a clue as to how to retire batters! Serentiy Now! Yesterday, for the most part is a blur to me, as I was tired and slept most of the day and evening… As you know, I’m a firm believer of the idea that your body tells you how much sleep you need… So, there’s that!  The Climax Blues Band greets me this morning with their song: Couldn’t Get It Right… 

Well, after getting taken to the woodshed on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar came back strongly on Sunday night, and into Monday morning, but it stopped there on Monday morning… The BBDXY gained 2 index points from the overnight gain Sunday night, and as I said yesterday, it appeared that a correction in the dollar was taking place, and I stand by that idea… 

Because, otherwise, in my humble country boy opinion, the dollar would had have a field day on Monday, but it didn’t… And through my years of experience watching the dollar, I think that the dollar didn’t have any follow through, because, the dollar bugs thought that gain Sunday night, was enough, the dollar didn’t deserve to go any higher… 

And so we begin today, with many questions about where the dollar is going to go today, and what driver will it use to get there.  The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, is reacting to the dollar swings in normal fashion, with it rising and falling with each move the dollar makes.  And the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog, (euro) around town… 

Gold was subjected to more shot paper trading yesterday, and at one point in the day’s trading, Gold was down $67… Ouch! Now that’s going to leave a mark! But the shiny metal fought and fought to end the day down $53… And close at $2,983… That’s an ugly closing price, eh?  Well, do something about it! Buy some physical Gold and get it going in the right direction! My dad used to tell me that when the chips are down, and it appears that all is lost, to put my head down and get to work…  

And that advice carried me through my working years for sure, and I do believe that’s what it will take to get Gold moving in the right direction again… Bargain basement pricing for sure, but that’s what you’ve been waiting for, isn’t it? 

Here’s Brien Lundin’s take on the day’s Gold Trading: “You already know that it was one of the wildest trading sessions ever seen. There have been bigger drops, and bigger rebounds. But perhaps never such a drop,

Rebound, drop, rebound and drop again.” Brian is the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is the grandaddy of all Conferences…  And he has a day job as the head of the Jefferson Financial Co, in New Orleans…  he puts out a weekly letter on Gold, and if you’re a Gold bug, and can’t get enough news on Gold, then you should check his letter out here: 4.7.25-Alert.pdf

Silver has done a deal with the devil… Or so it seems…  A takeoff of Damn Yankees…   Silver, which was subjected to major short selling last week, has changed directions and is back in the good graces of the short Silver paper traders, or so it seems.. Silver gained 65-cents yesterday, and regained the $30 handle, after briefly falling below the $30 handle…   Silver closed yesterday at $30.18… 

The price of Oil wrapped a tourniquet around its price and stopped the bleeding for now, yesterday. Oil found a bid, and gained a buck on the day, to end the day trading with a $61 handle.  And the 10-year Treasury has been bouncing around like a super ball…  The yield on the 10-year gained some its lost ground yesterday rising to 4.16% on the day…  There wasn’t any data to speak of, well I take that back, there was the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February… But, that wouldn’t have moved the bond boys to sell Treasuries… So, I wonder just what’s on their collective minds right now… 

Well, here it is, what’s on the bond boys’ minds… From the AP this morning…  “hedge funds sell bonds to reduce risk”…  This goes back to the statement that Bill Bonner made last week, when he called buying Treasuries “the dumbest idea”…  I’ve gone record here by saying that as long as you stay 3-years and in, on the yield curve, that a Treasury bond is OK… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought some more, and we start our day today with the BBDXY up 3 index points to 1,267… This is interesting to me that is, that the dollar has fought back to regain most of the lost ground it experienced late last week… I shouldn’t have highlighted the Swiss franc yesterday, because it lost the $1.17 handle overnight… I’m famous for jinxing currencies… Highlight them and they fade the next day…  I guess I should stop highlighting them! Gold is rallying in the early trading this morning, and is up $34, while Silver is still dealing with the devil, and is up 24-cents to start the day today…   Gold is caught in a liquidity crisis, folks, and will see these spurts higher, followed by selloffs… Keep in your lane here and don’t panic when you see Gold off by multiples of 10, remember what the turtle said to the hare… Slow and steady, wins the race… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle overnight, and the selling that the Hedge Fund guys are doing with the 10-year Treasury has its yield trading at 4.16% This morning… 

What do you suppose the answer to the question: “Will the tariffs make or break the U.S. economy”…  The U.S. economy is on tenterhooks right now, and wouldn’t need much of a push to propel it over the cliff… In my humble country boy opinion that is… I could be wrong, but I doubt it… In fact, my family members like to make a big deal out of the times in the past that I’ve admitted to being wrong about something… So, not wanting to harm my arm by sapping myself on the back, but it’s a rate occurrence to come to the realization that I was wrong about something! 

I truly believe that history might not fully repeat itself, but it will close, lie a grenade has to be… And that is that the tariffs, if allowed to be implemented as announced, will do more harm than good to the economy, and the middle class’s financial situation…  Hey! The Rich Folks, won’t feel it, it’ll be like a rounding error for them, but you and me, and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off, we’ll feel the rise in prices more than anyone else… And we’ll feel the businesses closing and the overall feeling of being in Liverpool in 1963…   Remember those pictures that the TV would show of Liverpool back when the Beatles hit the U.S. shores?   Now, those were depressing, but at the time we didn’t put two and two together, and thought it looked like most U.S. cities here in the U.S., but that wasn’t the case, now, was it? 

Funny, not funny ha-ha, that I’m always referring back to those days? Those are the days of my youth, and I can recall the events of those days easily, but I can’t remember names and faces…   Those escape me, but I remember the folks that I was closest to, and that’s all that matters to me!  

OK…  the dollar is down -5.21% so far this year… And I reckon back to what I talked about yesterday, and that is that the dollar used to be a “safe haven” for crises that arise in the world… But it didn’t last week, it ran and hid from investors… The drop in the dollar on Thursday & Friday last week was the dollar’s biggest drop to start a year since 2008… Do you know what was going on then to cause a major drop in the dollar?  November 2022 after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports at levels not seen since the early 1900s. Stock markets also tanked, as tariffs ignited recession worries. Well, Increasing recession risks had put interest rate cuts back on the table in 2008; interest rates are one of the primary drivers of the U.S. dollar’s value.  

So, you see, history does run circles around repeating, eh?  

2008, sure seems like a galaxy far away, doesn’t it? 17 years ago… Watching a tot grow up to be a young adult… Like watching my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, grow up and drive, and do the things young adults do… She is so darling, and I love her to pieces, and tell her that every time I see her!  Sorry, but I couldn’t pass up telling you how much I love my daring Delaney Grace!  her choir group recently traveled to NYC to sing a Carnagie Hall!  Delaney’s mom, my daughter, Dawn, sent me a short clip of the performance..  I told her that it must have been a thrill to sing at Carnagie Hall… Such a historic place! 

Not too much else to talk about this morning with regards to the markets, currencies, metals, economies and dolts… So, let’s move on to the Big Finish!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February, and believe it or don’t, Consumers paid down their debt in February, or so it seems per the Gov’t bean counters…  Here’s some data for you to ingest, “Revolving credit, largely a reflection of credit card debt, edged up at an annual rate of 0.1% to $1.324 trillion. Non-revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of -0.3% to $3.673 trillion.

The Federal government holdings of student loans continue to be the largest portion of non-revolving credit, comprising 41.7% percent of non-revolving credit. Depository institutions and Finance companies are secondary and tertiary holders of non-revolving credit, with 22.6% and 19.5%, respectively of non-revolving credit.”

I couldn’t get my arms around this drop in consumer debt, here folks, and so I’ll mark this as “Gov’t book cooking”…  

Today’s Data Cupboard is null and void of any real economic data, but we do have 2 Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit… 

To recap… The dollar’s rebound stopped yesterday morning…  At least it did rebound and regain some of its lost ground from late last week… But Chuck put it down as a correction of the all the selling… The U.S. dollar is down -5.21% so far this year, and Chuck points to what was going on in 2008, to tell the tale of what’s causing the dollar to lose ground in 2025… The euro continues to follow the dollar up and down and the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog (euro) around… Gold had an unbelievable day yesterday, dropping like a rock and then soaring and then dropping more, and finally closing out down $53 on the day… Silver seems to have made a deal with the devil… According to Chuck… 

For What It’s Worth… I made a call yesterday to include a headline I saw and now it seems that the call was somewhat exaggerated… I’m talking about all the deceased people receiving Social Security money through the years… Here’s the skinny on that and it can be found here: Tens of millions of dead people aren’t getting Social Security checks, despite Trump and Musk claims | AP News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Over the past few days, President Donald Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk have said on social media and in press briefings that people who are 100, 200 and even 300 years old are improperly getting benefits — a “HUGE problem,” Musk wrote, as his Department of Government Efficiency digs into federal agencies to root out waste, fraud and abuse.

It is true that improper payments have been made, including some to dead people. But the numbers thrown out by Musk and the White House are overstated and misrepresent Social Security data.

On Wednesday, Social Security’s new acting commissioner, Lee Dudek, acknowledged recent reporting about the number of people older than age 100 who may be receiving benefits from Social Security. “The reported data are people in our records with a Social Security number who do not have a date of death associated with their record. These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.”

Chuck again… Still, where there’s smoke there’s fire, right?  I’m just saying that if there are deceased people receiving money each month that it would go a long way to fixing a problem if that were eliminated!

Market Prices 4/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6044, kiwi .5691, C$ .7053, euro 1.0940, sterling 1.2782, Swiss $1.1691, European Style: rand 19.4661, krone 10.9337, SEK 10.0809, forint 372.22, zloty 3.9052, koruna 22.9802, RUB 85.58, yen 146.94, sing 1.3498, HKD 7.7694, INR 86.26, China 7.2732, peso 20.53, BRL 5.9145, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103.00, Oil $61.99, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $30.41, Platinum $951.00, Palladium $922.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold… $3,017.22

That’s it for today… Congrats to The University of Florida for their win in the NCAA Basketball Championship for 2025… They won the game by 2 pts, VS Houston, and it was a barn burner of a game for sure… I kept switching back and forth between the basketball game and the Cardinals game, which they lost…  And then went to sleep! I just couldn’t get the sleep fairies from visiting me yesterday! Maybe I’ve tried to do too much in regard to getting up and around…  Maybe…  I just think that the trip back to St. Louis, was a lot for me, and it finally caught up with me… Today should be better… Now that I’ve caught up on my sleep!  I’ve still not tried to climb the steps upstairs, but I’ll have to Thursday, as there will be no Pfennig Thursday as I have an appointment with my oncologist bright and early on Thursday morning…  This should be an interesting appt. The doctors at the hospital in Jupiter put me on steroids, which will eventually run out, but that has increased my appetite and weight gain… Oh well, que sera, sera… Our Blues, hockey team finally saw their winning streak end at 12 last night in Winnipeg…  Dave Mason takes us to the finish line today with his song: We Just Disagree….   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar had a bad week…
• Swiss francs being the cat’s meow….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you. Well, my trip back to my little river town home was not without problems… We, normally do not check our bags, and now carrying a portable oxygen generator made our carrying on bags more difficult… But, in the end, we managed… Well, to be precise, my wife, Kathy managed most of it, looking much like a packed down sherpa…  While I dealt with the portable oxygen generator…  I was unaware that elevation played hell with your oxygen levels, and kept worrying about my oxygen level dropping, but in the end it all was fine, and our trip was made easier!   Alex picked us up at the airport and drove us home… Thanks Bud! Three Dog Night greets me this morning with their song: Eli’s Coming… 

Well, if he’s coming to save us, he’s a dollar short and a day late, because the list of tariffs that were announced by the POTUS last Wednesday, is here to destroy us… That is, IF they actually get implemented, or if they are just a negotiating tool for better trade agreements… Already it has been reported that a list of countries on the Tariffs list have contacted the White House to talk about better trade agreements…  In my heart of heart, I’m hoping this happens for all involved… I realize that China will be a tough nut to crack, but if the Chinese see that the majority of countries are interested in new trade agreements with the U.S., then maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know (Andujar), the Chinese will come around to seeing things done the better way, and not through inflation causing tariffs… 

OK, well, the dollar got smoked again last Thursday and Friday…. And ended the week with the BBDXY trading at: 1,251, meaning that it had lost 20 index points from Monday last week… The loss of the dollar just on Friday, last week was 10 index points in the BBDXY…  So, the euro, the offset currency, to the dollar, is trading within spittin’ distance of 1.10 again, and the rest of the currencies are following the euro higher… Economists, even the two handed kind, have been issuing warnings about a “dumb thing to do” implementing these tariffs, and the stock Jockeys have really taken this “dumb thing to do” and gone on to sell stocks…  The rot on the stock markets vine is really getting exposed right now, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about is it? 

But when stocks get sold, bonds get bought, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond had fallen below 4%… A friendly neighborhood reminder that when bonds get bought, their price rises, and the yield drops… And vice versa when bonds get sold…   The yield on the 10-year Treasury ended the week trading with a 3.91%… WOW! 

And the price of Oil got sold off BIG TIME, late last week… The Oil traders see the tariffs as not only causing inflation, but also slowing the economy down, thus reducing disposable income and gas buying… And with that in their collective minds, they took down the price of Oil to end the week at $62…   That’s a full $10 in price from where the price of Oil was a week ago…   I can’t help it, but I think this selloff in Oil was a bit overdone, and when inflation comes along adding to our already higher prices for just about everything, the price of Oil, being a commodity, will most likely rally…   

And there was news overnight that the Saudi’s had cut Oil prices to Southeast Asia… So, that surely isn’t helping the price of Oil… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar raced back! The buying of the dollar was interesting, as it looked more like a correction than anything else…  The BBDXY gained 12 index points overnight, and starts our day/ week trading at 1.266, quite an improvement from Friday’s close, eh?  And the rest of the currencies have given up the ground that they had gained last week… Except one currency that seems to be the cat’s meow this morning, and that is the Swiss franc… Safe haven buying of francs is the order of business this morning…  Funny, not funny ha-ha, but funny that this should be the case…  Buying a fiat currency as a safe haven instead of hard, physical Gold really has me wondering what the hell these traders are thinking!   The software that outlook uses just tried to re-write that last sentence in a “nicer way”, and of course I said, “no thank you!” 

Gold is up $3 to start our day/ week this morning, and Silver is up 76-cents, and that looks good to me!  Silver has been drug through an alley of broken glass, and then driven off in a dump truck in recent times, so to see Silver outperforming Gold for once in blue moon, make me smile…  And after watching my beloved Cardinals get swept by the Red Sox, I didn’t have much to smile about yesterday… 

The price of Oil slipped another buck overnight to start the week trading with a $60 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield slipped back below 4% overnight, to start the week at 3.98%… Stocks getting sold, bonds getting bought, it’s the same throughout history, folks… 

With stocks getting sold, some panic selling, and so on, selling in margin accounts, or a more dreadful thing, margin calls for stock values falling below the min. Equity in the margin accounts… To pay for these margin calls, the most liquid asset these people have is Gold… So, Gold gets sold to get cash to pay for the margin calls in stock accounts… I believe that I have told you this before, but long ago in a far-away Galaxy, I ran a margin Dept, and a local regional Brokerage House, that has now become quite BIG… And I saw many a good person come to tears when told they had to sell something in their account, to pay for a margin call… Well, I didn’t actually see them come to tears, I heard them on the phone…  The pleading the begging, the asking for more time, I’ve heard it all… But Fed Reserve rules are rules, and we had to follow them… 

I read a piece this weekend that talked about how if the stock crisis happened in Asia, then the selling of Gold would be much more pronounced, but here in the West, the effect is much less in the price of Gold, because, Westerners don’t even know that they can own physical Gold much less sell it to pay for margin calls…  

So, tell me then why did Gold lose $77 on Friday, following up its $19 loss on Thursday, to end the week at $3,036. Silver saw the short paper traders go to town on its price both Thursday and Friday last week… On Thursday, Silver lost $2.02, and on Friday it lost $$2.27, to end the week at $29.55… Now if that’s not what Ed Steer calls a “Bear Raid” in Silver I don’t know what is…. Silver has been the whipping post boy of the metals in the last couple of weeks, and do you want to know why?  Because it costs less of finance short positions in Silver than it does Gold…I’m not going to go all postal on the short paper traders here, instead, I’ll point out that Silver (and Gold) is bargain basement cheaper! Beep, Beep, Beep, what’s that sound? It’s the sound of the truck backing up to load up on Silver (and some Gold) at these blue light special prices in Silver… 

You know, when I think about the dollar getting sold last week, I wonder what happened to its “safe haven status”? I mean, that in the past, whenever there was a crisis going on with the stock jockeys, investors would flock to the dollar for protection… But not this time… And while I don’t like the saying, “This time is different”,  this time was different, and investors ran from the dollar… There are no ifs, ands or buts, here… Investors ran from the dollar! And I can’t blame them!   

The tariffs are going to do some ugly things to the U.S. economy, IF they are allowed to be implemented…   And that can’t be good for the dollar…  I’ve got something for you regarding Foreign Central Banks and their holdings of dollars as reserve in the FWIW section today… So, be sure to stay here for that!  

I just can’t get Smoot-Hawley off my mind here folks…  If Smoot-Hawley tariffs weren’t a main cause for the Great Depression, then they were at the scene of the crime…   My economics go to, Frank Trotter, who studied under the great Hy Minsky, and I had the unique opportunity to be with on several occasions many years ago… Would talk about the Minsky moment…  A Minsky Moment is simply, the onset of a market collapse brought on by speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky moments generally occur after a long period of growth, which ultimately leads to overleveraging once prices stop rising.

In other words, when everyone thinks that this stock rally and economic phenomenon will go on forever,  the Minsky Moment appears, and it all begins to circle the drain…   Trees don’t grow to the moon, folks… Remember that! 

Well, that’s just about all I have to say about the tariffs, and markets this morning, we might as well head to the Big Finish, eh? Except to mention that the DOGE folks, found that $1.3 Billion in checks were sent to deceased people here in the U.S. and the checks were cashed!  Wait, What?  Now, that this has been found, what are the steps that will be taken to prevent this from taking place again?  That’s the problem with the DOGE folks, so far folks… They find these frauds, wastes, and abuses, and then nothing is done to correct them…   I find this to be a real problem… But I’m not fool, I realize it will take an act of Congress to do something about them, and they will balk, because that’s not what got them elected! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the March Jobs Jamboree numbers for us… 228,000 were created in the month, and there was only a rounding error taken away in the Birth / Death model, which is part of the BLS’s hedonic adjustments… But the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2% (from 4.1%) There was a ton of job creation in March, and one has to wonder what gives, with businesses closing and filing for Bankruptcy, growing by leaps and bounds, so there’s no hiring going on there… The Gov’t extras that DOGE has identified as non-essential, should be showing up in these Jobs Creation losses numbers… 

This Weeks’s Data Cupboard is pretty void of real economic data, until we get to Wednesday, when the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes will be printed for all to see what the Fed Heads really had to say about the economy and rate movements coming… 

To recap… The rot on the dollar’s vine is being exposed these days, as the dollar had lost 20 index points in the BBDXY in the last 10 days… Gold is getting sold to pay for margin calls, and Silver is being sold short by the short paper traders and creating excellent buying opportunities in Silver…  The currencies were gaining VS the dollar last week, with the dollar getting sold. The euro is the “leader of the pack” (the shangri-las) and the rest of the currencies were following the euro higher VS the dollar. Chuck talks a bit about the tariffs, and gives you his thoughts on all them… 

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article on Saturday, after returning home, and thought back to a time when the dollar’s share of reserve currencies around the world had shrunk to 63%, and thought then that the dollar was in trouble… Well, this article tells a story about how the dollar’s share of world reserves has fallen further and it can be found here: Dollar’s Reserve Status Losing Ground to Gold and Other Currencies

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency continues to erode, with gold and “non-traditional” reserve currencies gaining ground.

According to recently released IMF data, the dollar’s share of global reserve currencies slid further last year. Total holdings of dollar-denominated securities by central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) fell by $59 billion in 2024.

As of the end of last year, dollars made up 57.8 percent of global reserves. That is the lowest level since 1994, representing a 7.3 percent decline in the last decade. In 2002, dollars accounted for about 72 percent of total reserves.

This isn’t the first surge of de-dollarization. The greenback’s share of reserves plunged during the inflationary years of the 1970s but recovered during the 1990s as price inflation cooled and U.S. budget deficits narrowed thanks to the post-Cold War “peace dividend.”

Today, the dollar faces a triple whammy – sticky price inflation, out-of-control federal spending driving massive budget deficits, and global wariness of the West’s weaponization of the dollar.

De-dollarization has accelerated since the U.S. and other Western nations imposed heavy sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

According to a report by the Atlantic Council, “In recent years, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Group of Seven (G7)’s subsequent escalation in the use of financial sanctions, some countries have been signaling their intention to diversify away from dollars.”

What Is Replacing the Dollar?

If central banks are spurning dollars, what are they holding?

Increasingly, they are bolstering their reserve with gold.

Central bank gold demand topped 1,000 Tonnes for the third straight year in 2024. To put that into perspective, central bank gold reserves increased by an average of just 473 Tonnes annually between 2010 and 2021.”

Chuck Again… Well, I’ve journaled here in the Pfennig previously, regarding how Central Banks were gobbling up the physical Gold…  And now here’s the proof in the pudding!

Market Prices 4/7/2025: American Style: A$ .6036, kiwi .5679, C$ .7015, euro 1.0946, sterling 1.2811, Swiss $1.1708, European Style: rand 19.5467, krone 10.8855, SEK 10.1012, forint 372.46, zloty 3.9234, koruna 23. 2054, RUB 86.34, yen 146.26, sing 1.3471, HKD 7.7682, INR 85.84, China 7.3090, peso 20.63, BRL 5.8424, BBDXY 1,266, Dollar Index 104.13, Oil $60.59, 10-year 3.98%, Silver $30.33, Platinum $910.00, Palladium $917.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $3,039.67

That’s it for today… Well, the final two teams in the NCAA basketball Championship Game tonight will be Florida, and Houston… I’m pulling for Florida… I guess, we’ll see… Neither of the two teams I picked in my final two made it to the game, with both losing on Saturday… My beloved Cardinals are proving me wrong… I said while in Spring Training that they couldn’t seem to find any timely hitting… But in the regular season so far, they’ve done well with their team hitting, so, no scout I could be! I do believe I’m getting better, I’m moving around much easier, and without my breathing and heart rate going as much haywire… I went downstairs as soon as I arrived home on Saturday, and can’t climb the steps to go back upstairs, so I’m living in the basement!  Hey! It’s better than living in a trailer down by the river (Farley) !   That’s just a funny saying from an old SNL skit, folks, I’m not making fun of anyone living in trailers! I ordered 3 new books to read, now that I’m not able to get out and move about the country, so I’ll be getting to them today… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line this morning with their great song: Nights In White Satin…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets ambushed overnight!
• Metals are getting sold to pay for other asset losses

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, another day away from the hospital has given me some freedom to walk out on the balcony, walk down our outside hallway to the elevator, and all around the condo, and I do believe it’s helping me get stronger, and breathe a little better each day! Of course I still have a pharmacy of drugs I have to take each day to help! But que sera, sera! The Beatles greet me this morning with their great song: And I Love Her…

Well, the dollar didn’t gain anything yesterday, nor did it lose any ground either, even in the face of all the new tariffs the POTUS delivered in the rose garden at the White House… The BBDXY ended the day at the same level it began the day, 1,273… So, with that in mind the currencies didn’t budge much either… 

Gold on the other hand gained $16 to close at $3,135… Back on the rally tracks again after two days of seeing short paper traders take it downward.  Silver hasn’t been able to follow Gold higher these days…  It was being stubborn, or, more likely it being short sold hand over fist…  Silver . But not yesterday! Silver gained 30-cents to close at $33.95… So, maybe the short paper traders made their point, and took their bat and ball and went home, or…. The demand for Silver was just too strong yesterday… Probably the latter of the two!

The price of Oil lost 2-cents yesterday, nothing on the newswires about the reason for the loss, as I said yesterday, Oil is a commodity, and with the tariffs being announced, commodities should be rallying…  But not so for the price of Oil yesterday… And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was back at the yield controls yesterday, and brought the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 4.07%… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, hold onto your hats, because there’s been a real global selloff of all assets… Stocks are circling the bowl, the dollar has lost 10 index points in the BBDXY, Gold is being sold to pay for margin calls, and the list goes on… The only thing showing positive gains is the currencies… The euro is trading over 1.10, and the rest of the currencies, including the Euro Wanna Bes, are all on the rally tracks this morning.  Gold has been sold to the tune $44 this morning, and has lost the $3,100 handle… The selling is crazy this morning folks, so like I said, hold onto your hats, because this wind of change is like a hurricane.  When I first turned on my laptop this morning to do my usual reading before writing, I noticed the currencies all looking like they were on top of the world, and thought, “the dollar got ambushed last night”, but then with my interest piqued, I went to the metals and found out that this is a global selloff, because of the tariffs the POTUS announced yesterday. The whole world knows what’s coming next, and they don’t like it…  But like I said above, Gold and Silver are getting caught up in the Global selloff, with the metals being sold to cover the losses of other assets, in my opinion, that’s what’s happening… Silver is down $1.041 this morning, have you ever seen such a global selloff like this? 

The price of Oil has slipped downward too, and trades this morning with a $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield has fallen to 4.07%…  Everything but the currencies are getting sold this morning, and the currencies are receiving this kind of attention because the dollar is getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair! 

I have an article that gets into the global tariffs that the POTUS announced yesterday, in the FWIW section today, so there’s that for you!  This is going to get real ugly folks, so, I want you to crawl into your safe place, batten down the hatches, and wait for the good witch Glinda to give us the “all clear” signal to come back out and get on the Yellow Brick Road again…  (Gold)  Or, back up the truck and load of Gold & Silver on these cheaper price opportunities, it’s your decision not mine, so go ahead and make one… What’s it gonna be boy? (Meat Loaf)  

OK, let’s talk about something that will cheer us up…  I saw an article yesterday that listed the bestselling albums from the 70’s, my time of being a teenager, and buying most of these albums…  And the number one album of the 70’s was… Drum roll please, Dark Side of the Moon, by Pink Floyd. I pretty much knew this was going to be the case, because at one time that album held the #1 selling record for years!

Wanna know what the number one song played in juke boxes (yes they still have those) is? Patsy Cline’s Crazy… Which was written by Willie Nelson…  

Now, don’t you feel a bit better? Nothing like talking about music does that for me… I was a guitar player, as I’ve told you before, played all over this wonderful country, and thought the world revived around music… I get up in the morning, turn on Sirius XM and the day starts for me! Or, I get up and turn on my iPad… Either way, I start each day with music… What do you do? 

In  graph that longtime reader Bob sent me yesterday, the graph showed that the gain in The Current Account for the U.S. of A, was in contraction, by -.08%, while East Asia, led by China were all positive gains that started with Japan at +.01%, and China at +.03%, to as high as +.08%….  These were taken as of Rocktober 2024…  A little stale in reporting but… Shows you that Asia is beating the U.S. in just about all categories that contribute to the Current Account…  In other words, they don’t have the size of Debt that the U.S. does…  I’m just saying..

And CNBC issued a report saying that the U.S. GDP will only be +.03% in the 2^nd QTR… That’s close enough to be called a “rounding error”, which means that U.S. GDP could be flat… 

Why would that be? Because U.S. consumers are tapping out… They’ve spent the stimmy checks that were issued to them, they’ve run up their credit cards balances, and not paying them off when the bill comes in the mail… Credit Card delinquencies are rising at an 11.35% rate, and that more than half of Americans are carrying credit card balances, despite sky-high APRs. More than 20% are those credit card rates, so who could pay them down, with inflation running around 13%? And most likely going higher…

The U.S. consumer debt has risen to more than $18 Trillion, and is attempting to catch the national debt, in my opinion… So, with all this debt in the U.S. you may see things the way I do, and that is we’ll see a default on debt in our lifetime, probably sooner than later… Too much debt is really the problem with the slow growth in the U.S….

I should probably move on to something else besides debt, for I’ve been carping about Gov’t debt for as long as I’ve been writing the Pfennig, it seems, and in the last couple of years the rise in consumer debt…  The last year that I spoke at the Vancouver Investment Symposium hosted by my friends at Agora Publishing, I talked about how the total of U.S. Gov’t and Consumer debt was more than $50 Trillion…  And today, it’s far more than that! So, let’s move on and let this fall where it will for today… 

Wanna know why Gold had such a fabulous year in 2024 and have started 2025 even better?  here’s Jan Nieuwenhuijs with his report on China’s Gold intake in 2024 and 2025 so far…. “The Peoples Bank of China continues to buy unprecedented amounts of gold as the global financial is deleveraging — that is, investors exchange credit assets for gold.

In 2024 the Chinese central bank covertly bought 570 Tonnes, encouraging gold’s ascent in global international reserves by 4%, the largest gain in four decades.”

He goes on to report that “This article is an analysis of formal and informal sources that indicate the PBoC is sitting on more than 5,000 Tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing — more than twice what has been publicly admitted.”

Remember the old saying about “he who owns the Gold, makes the rules?”  Well, 5,000 Tonnes is quite a bit, and if the U.S. really has over 8,000 Tonnes of Gold, then China still has some catching up to do, however, should the U.S. not have 8,000 Tonnes of Gold, then it will be China that make the rules, when all this debt falls like Humpty Dumpty, and not be able to be put back together again! OOPs, there I go with the debt talk about, when I said I should end it for today! My bad! BTW the good folks at GATA sent me that note about China’s Gold…

I forgot to give you the U.S. Data Cupboard incoming reports yesterday.. So this is a day late and a dollar short, but still worthy of knowing… The ADP Employment Report printed a plus 155,000 jobs in March, VS the lowly 84,000 jobs in Feb.  And the Factory Orders for March fell from Feb’s unbelievable print of +1.8%, to a March print of +.06%, proving to me that in Feb. There were some one and one deals done an included with the report. 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims for us to see today, and the experts think that they will add to the previous week’s 224,000… We’ll also see the Feb. Trade Deficit…  which was a whopping $131 Trillion in Jan. We’ll also see 2 different Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit today… 

To recap… The dollar didn’t budge yesterday in the face of all the new tariffs that were announced and all the calls for a global trade war impending… Gold got back on the rally tracks after seeing two days of short selling of the metal and Silver found away around the short sellers to gain 30-cents on the day.  I have the FWIW article on the POTUS’s tariff announcements yesterday, so stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel…

For What It’s Worth… Yesterday’s news wires and cable news stations were all over “Liberation Day” the day of the multitude of Tariff announcements… And it can be found here: Trump Tariffs: US to Impose 10% Global Duty, Higher Rates for Some Nations – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “President Donald Trump imposed the steepest American tariffs in a century, stepping up his campaign to reshape the global economy and unnerving investors who see a trade war as a risk to US growth.

Trump announced Wednesday he will apply at least a 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, with even higher duties on some 60 nations to counter large trade imbalances with the US. That includes some of the country’s biggest trading partners, such as China — which now faces a tariff of well above 50% on many goods — as well as the European Union, Japan and Vietnam.

For years, hard-working American citizens were forced to sit on the sidelines as other nations got rich and powerful, much of it at our expense,” Trump said during an event in the White House Rose Garden to unveil the so-called reciprocal tariffs. “Now it’s our turn to prosper.”

The move marks a dramatic escalation in Trump’s trade war, one that’s likely to trigger immediate retaliation from other countries and upend calculations for businesses and consumers at home.

The president has embraced tariffs as a tool to assert US power, revive manufacturing at home and exact geopolitical concessions — counter to the decades-old consensus that lower trade barriers help to foster ties among nations and prevent conflicts. Economists say the near-term result of his measures will likely be higher US prices and slower growth — or perhaps even a recession.

In initial after-hours trading following Trump’s announcement, US stocks futures plunged more than 3% and oil slumped.

Less than three months after returning to the White House, Trump has already erected trade barriers that are bigger by some measures than those imposed in the notoriously protectionist 1930s. Bloomberg Economics calculates that the effective tax rate the US now charges on more than $3 trillion of imported goods may climb to around 23% — higher than any point in more than a century.”

Chuck again, and once again I will remind everyone to look up the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that have been accused of leading to the Great Depression… Could this happen again? Remember we, as a country, didn’t have near the debt then that we have now, and that should be a real problem going forward trading alongside a global Trade War.. 

Get a load of these currency values folks, I haven’t seen a rally like this in a very long time!

Market Prices 4/3/2025: American Style: A$ .6450, kiwi .5818, C$ .7085, euro 1.1075, sterling 1.3165, Swiss $1.1615, European Style: rand 18.8565, krone 10.3010, SEK 9.8882. forint 362.48, zloty, 3.7833, koruna 22.5636, RUB 83.88, yen 146.40, sing 1.33350, HKD 7.7780, INR 85.44, China 7.2930, peso 20..03, BRL 5.6152, BBDXY 1.063, Dollar Index 1.04.13, Oil $67.53, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $32.39, Platinum $ 963.00, Palladium $958.00, Copper $4.90, and Gold… $3,091.00

That’s it for today… And this week, my first week back has gone quickly… I have enjoyed my cinnamon rolls each day, but now they are gone… So, it’s back to scrambled eggs for breakfast… I normally didn’t eat breakfast but while I’m on all these drugs, some say eat with a meal, so that’s breakfast! I know that eggs are very expensive these days, and better for me than a cinnamon roll but.. The cinnamon roll tastes so much yummier! That was exciting watching my belove Cardinals win yesterday, with our catcher, Ivan Herrera hitting 3 homers in the game, all in Big Mac Land! He’s the first of a long line of great Cardinals’ Catchers to hit 3 home runs in a game, and that includes my two favorite catchers, Tim Mcarver, and Ted Simmons!  I had mentioned to my spring training buddies, when they were here to attend games with me, that I preferred Ivan as our everyday catcher… And he’s proved me right! 

John Lennon takes us to the finish line today, with, in my opinion, is his best solo work with the song: #9 Dream… A beautiful song indeed… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• short paper traders make an oaf out of Chuck
• Dollar bugs have the light bulb over their heads turned on!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, another day, another walk, this time with just my cane, not the walker, I was plum worn out when I arrived back the condo, but… Didn’t have to stop to rest during the walk, so, as I said yesterday, that’s progress, just as slow as a snail! I’m wondering how long this is going to take, no, wait, I shouldn’t be thinking that, only that I continue to do what the doctors told me what to do to get better! I’m retired, I have all day, every day, to work on getting better!   Steely Dan greets me this morning with their jazzy song: Time Out Of Mind… 

Well, the dollar didn’t fare as well yesterday, and lost 2 index points in the BBDXY, to close at 1,273… Today is what is being billed as “Liberation Day”, as the POTUS will announce his new round of global tariffs… I had a long conversation on the phone yesterday, with good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com and expressed my thought that these tariff announcements are a negotiating tool that the POTUS will use, to get better trade deals with the countries that have been ripping us off for decades…  And according to Bill Bonner, who was privy to a meeting of the minds, that took place in the White House, (Bill listened on the phone) The POTUS said if any country tried to retaliate with tariffs, he would bomb the hell of them…   Again, another negotiating tool, I believe, we don’t need any wars or better yet, any more wars than we are already involved with.  At least, that’s what I’m wishing in my heart of hearts…

I shouldn’t have said what I said yesterday, about nothing stopping Gold’s rise, it was if I had forgotten that the wolf is always at the door (short paper traders), for the short paper traders had a field day with both Gold & Silver, after capping their gains on Monday, the short paper traders when to work to get the metals back to where they were a few days ago…  I have something for you in the FWIW section today, that I think you’ll enjoy the writer and what he had today about what happened on Monday in the metals… Don’t skip ahead, stay right here, for it won’t take long to get there by normal reading, as I don’t have much to talk about today, except “Liberation Day”.

Gold lost a good bit of ground yesterday… $14 in price to close at $3,119, and Silver lost 40-cents to close at $33.65…  Gold is attempting to come back this morning, but the damage was done yesterday, and I just keep getting notes about how the short paper traders are about to go out of business, but still they remain, an underlying factor in the rise of the metals… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $71 handle yesterday, although it did see some slippage in the $71 handle… And the 10=-year Treasury saw some more yield control by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel as the yield on the bond fell to 4.14%… 

IN the overnight markets, the dollar lost 2 more index points in the BBDXY, it was the light bulb over the heads of the dollar bugs, finally lit up and they said, “what the heck are we doing buying dollars in the face of what the POTUS will announce on Wednesday?”  The euro, however, has fallen back below the 1.08 figure, as inflation in the Eurozone fell lower again, thus bringing about thoughts of a European Central Bank (ECB ) rate cut coming, to debase the currency. Even though a high ranking official of the ECB came out and said that this was not the time to cut rates… And he was right, as the next round of tariffs are bound to set off a global trade war, that will see inflation come back… 

There has been some interesting times in Japan, folks… The Bank of Japan hiked rates while I was away, and the yen rallied a bit, but since then the selling of yen has recurred, and it looks as if the yen bears are still out looking for a side of flesh from the yen…  I’ve said this before at least a dozen or more times, that Japan is a mess… Their demographics are bad, their financial situation is bad, and their leadership in not only bad, but not worthy of leading a country out of this mess…  

The Russian ruble is back on the rally tracks as the small rise in the price of Oil has helped, but most importantly, the Red Sea route for Oil tankers has seen some calm, and that helps with the delivery of Oil and eliminates the need to add cost to the Oil price for longer deliveries…  And once again, I will tell you that I own rubles, so we got that out of the way, and I own them just for a play in Oil… It’s not a political thing, or who’s right and who’s wrong, simply a play with Oil… 

OK… Enough of that! Time to go to the FWIW, and see what Ed Steer has to say about what happened on Monday with the metals.

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ISM (manufacturing index) for March, and it’s supposed to be below the line in the sand, of 50….  We’ll also see the auto sales for March… I would imagine that with the depths of the personal disposable income and the banks charging high interest rates on car loans, and the whole debacle with Tesla, that this data will be skewed downward… 

To recap… The wolf is always at the door, as I was reminded of yesterday, as Gold & Silver got short paper traded downward… The dollar bugs realized that their buying of dollars was ridiculous… And Chuck talks to us about the yen, and ruble… 

For What it’s Worth… Well, the much-anticipated Ed Steer quote is here!   You can always find Ed at www.edsteergoldsilver.com. I don’t like to quote a lot of people while writing the Pfennig, but yesterday’s Ed Steer’s column caught my eye, and it was something I had talked about in yesterday’s Pfennig…  You can find Ed at www.edsteergoldsilver.com   And with no further ado…. And here’s what he had to say about the short traders of Silver: 

“It was obvious from the saw-tooth price action in gold everywhere on Planet Earth on Monday that it would have been off to the races once more if those collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe hadn’t been out an about the whole time.

Even their attempt to blow it lower into the afternoon gold fix in London at 10 a.m. in New York, was followed by a sharp rally that would have never ended if they hadn’t appeared fifteen minutes after the 11 a.m. EDT London close.

There was lots of rejoicing that gold was now above $3,100 the ounce…but if ‘da boyz’ hadn’t intervened 24/7…it’s a given that gold would have closed at a price several multiples of that.

Of course the most egregious price suppression was in silver and, like for gold, if these commercial not-for-profit sellers hadn’t appeared in it after its engineered low tick in COMEX trading in New York, it would have closed at heaven-only-knows what price as well.

It was allow to trade a penny or so back in positive territory minutes before 4 p.m. in after-hours trading, but obviously wasn’t allowed to close there.

Gold is now back into overbought territory by a decent amount on its RSI trace — and of course silver has not been allowed even a sniff of its.” – Ed Steer…

Chuck again, I love to read Ed Steer’s letter each morning, before I write each morning… And you should too, so go to his website and sign up!

Market Prices 4/2/2025: American style: A$ .6301, kiwi .5739, C$ .6979, euro 1.0794, sterling 1.2937, Swiss $1.1309, European Style: rand 18.6831, krone 10.4486, SEK 9.9782, forint 371.54, zloty 3.8724, koruna 23.1336, RUB 84.92, yen 149.28, sing 1.3455, HKD 7.7819, INR 85.50, China 7.2708, peso 20.36, BRL 5.6823, BBDXY 1,271, Dollar Index 104.11, Oil $70.75, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $34.10, Platinum $981.00, Palladium $ 987.00, Copper $5.05, and Gold… $3,118.75

That’s it for today…  I’m kind of getting back into the swing of getting up, reading and writing… After 3 weeks of not doing that, it’s been a real tough row to hoe for me, but I’ll get with it soon… The days here have been beautiful, warm but not too hot, April and May weather here is wonderful. I got outside on the balcony to read a bit yesterday, you know, when you don’t get outside to breathe the fresh air, you don’t know what you’re missing until you get back outside, and that was wonderful to sit outside again… I have portable air tanks to take with me outside, but they are not airplane approved. I had to secure an airplane approved oxygen generator for my trip back to St. Louis this Saturday… What a pain to have to jump through all these hoops just to fly home… But I guess it’s worth it, as I’ll get to see all my kids, and grandkids again, just not in spurts down here… The new airplane approved model will arrive here today, hopefully… At least that’s what the guy on the phone told me!  The great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: Song On The Radio… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please above all else take care of your health and Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rallies, in the face of rising inflation
• Nothing is stopping Gold these days

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you… I’m back for a second day in row, but still having problems breathing when I walk… I did take a 40 yard walk yesterday, and didn’t have to stop and rest, so… There’s progress for me! My beloved Cardinals started the game off looking good, but in the end, they lost to the Angels in extra innings… UGH! The original version of the band Santana greets me this morning with their song Everybody’s Everything…  Don’t know that one? Just YOUTUBE the title, I think you’ll like it…

Well, the dollar didn’t fall apart yesterday, instead it rallied by 2 index points in the BBDXY… That’s the dollar index I use, as it’s not weighed down with euros, like the old Dollar Index… There was no rhyme or reason for the dollar to rally yesterday, probably just some cleaning or squaring for the dollar’s sake… 

I told you yesterday morning that you would like what Gold had done in the early trading, and then later reported that Gold was up $32… Well, it didn’t stop there, and Gold gained $37 on the day to close at $3,122… Silver wasn’t allowed by the short traders, to participate in a rally yesterday, and ended up the day flat as a pancake (Head East)  and closed at $31.17… 

The price of Oil rallied yesterday by $2 and ended the day trading with a $71 handle, while the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel must have been asleep at the wheel yesterday, because the 10-year Treasury’s yield went higher to 4.26% from 4.19% yesterday… 

In the overnight markets last night….the dollar continued to rally and sits this morning at 1,275 in the BBDXY Index, up 4 index points from yesterday morning. I really don’t get why the dollar is rallying, with the threat of a global trade war happening, and taking place tomorrow, when the POTUS announces his new round of tariffs in the rose garden at the White House… I have something for you in the FWIW section today regarding the dollar’s fate going forward, so don’t change the bat channel, stay right here! Those pop tarts can wait! 

Nothing seems to get in the way of Gold rising these days, as it is up another $10 in the early trading this morning…Silver is getting sold short again and is down 22-cents to start our day. I wish horrible things on the short paper traders, and I mean it! I’m not a mean person, per se, but these guys and gals have really gotten under my skin, and made me be mean… And I don’t like that! I like being the fun guy, that doesn’t let things get to me!

The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight… Oil is a commodity, that I refer to when I say that inflation is going to rise with the tariffs, and that will be good for the commodities… And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel must have been awakened and realized they were asleep on the job yesterday, when the 10-year rallied, because they (the Feds) came back with their usual yield controls, and pushed the yield of the 10-year Treasury down to 4.16%… UGH! Manipulation in everything is the thing these days, and it really gets me that we can’t have true price discovery in every asset… 

You know what I was thinking about with the Gold price soaring these days, that it’s probably not cost worthy, to get a Gold replacement tooth any longer… See? My mind is still wandering from all the drugs I’m taking right now!

Well, there’s talk all over the street these days about how the short paper traders are about to go out of business… I the tone of words by the Church Lady (Dana Carvey) Now, wouldn’t that be nice? For instance, the good folks at Gata sent me this notice: “Maybe the final print of today’s CME Group gold report for trading on March 28 will be revised. The final report shows that the open interest on the April gold contract increased by 45,420 from the preliminary report to 106,662 contracts. March 28 was the last report before first notice, so that is a doubling of metal set for physical delivery… ”  

Chuck again, it will be very interesting to see if those that are short stand for delivery, or will they be told to rollover the contracts for the next month?  I think they’ll be told to roll them over, because the COMEX doesn’t have that much physical Gold to make good on delivery…    If this is all mumbo jumbo for you, please accept my apologies, as I know of no other way than to describe it like the Gold Traders do… 

I found something down here that will do me no good going forward, but I can’t resist it… There’s a place down here that delivers cinnamon rolls to your door! I’m a sucker and a half for cinnamon rolls, and so I had 3 of them delivered yesterday… As I sat here eating one of them, I thought… This can’t be good for me, but that didn’t stop me from devouring it! I still check my sugar/ glucose, all the time… Remember when the chemo I was on, caused my blood sugar to rise to diabetic coma range?  At that time, I had to take diabetic medicine to get it under control, and I said to everyone in this letter that I didn’t want to be a diabetic, and I couldn’t wait to be off that chemo and onto something else… I should have been more careful about what I wished for, because now the pharma industry is out of new chemo for me, and now I’m part of a trial that involves infusions of drugs… I would have preferred taking the diabetic medicine to receiving infusions of drugs… 

There’s not much going on this morning, all the newswires are full of are thoughts on tomorrow’s tariffs announcement by the POTUS…  So, this letter will be shorter than usual, because we’ve been through the tariffs talk previously, and beaten it down… Drove it like a rental, and put away wet… 

For What It’s Worth… I saw this article on Boomberg.com and said this is FWIW worthy… It’s about the dollar and how it’s losing ground, after a long rally it had previously, and it can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-28/trump-is-rattling-the-market-s-faith-that-the-dollar-is-a-haven

Or, here’s your snippet: “As US stock prices tumbled this month, John Sidawi, a fund manager at Federated Hermes, noticed something strange.

The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, wasn’t rallying this time as investors rushed for safety. It was sinking, too, and fast as hot money poured into gold, the yen, European stocks — almost anywhere but the US.

“It’s unusual and very telling,” said Sidawi, who helps oversee bond investments at the firm. “The dollar, in an environment where it should be acting like a safe haven, is not.”

That, as with so much of the volatility that has whipsawed global markets recently, has a singular explanation: President Donald Trump.

Just two months into his second term, his escalating tariffs and bid to roll back decades of globalization is shaking confidence in the US currency — which has had a privileged place at the heart of the world financial system for eight decades.

The dollar has dropped against all but a handful of the 31 major currencies over the last three months, sending Bloomberg’s dollar index down nearly 3%, its worst start to a year since 2017. The price of gold — a rival haven — has surged to a record high of over $3,000 an ounce. By mid-March, speculative traders started betting against the dollar for the first time since Trump’s election amid fear his policy shifts could drive the world’s largest economy into a recession.

“As opposed to being the usual bastion of stability and first choice haven for foreign-exchange market operators, the greenback instead now stands as quite the opposite,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist in London for Pepperstone, one of the largest currency brokerages. He said an increasing number of clients are asking “where should I be looking at as opposed to just switching on the autopilot and hiding in the dollar?”

The recent drop hasn’t significantly eroded the strength of the dollar, given how much it had previously risen on the back of the nation’s strong economy and elevated interest rates, and it could bounce back if worries about a global slowdown cause overseas investors to pile into US Treasuries. It also remains solidly entrenched as the world’s key currency, used for the majority of central bank reserves and for the purchase of commodities like oil, in large part because no significant alternative has emerged.

“The rise and fall of currencies is not something that occurs because you get a wildcard president that is doing his best to kill globalization,” said Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard University professor and former World Bank chief economist. “The dollar did not overtake the British pound as a reserve currency overnight.”

Chuck again, yes, I know a little longish this morning with the FWIW article… But, there’s more to the article if you care to read it, just click on the link above… 

Market Prices 4/1/2025: American Style: A$.6251, kiwi .5676, C$ 6946, euro 1.0778, sterling 1.2896, Swiss 1.1332, European Style: rand 18.8275, krone 10.4919, SEK 10.0270, forint 373.57, zloty 3.8804, koruna 23.1359, RUB 84.56, yen 149.20, sing 1.3320, HKD 7.7811, INR 85.47, China 7.2709, peso 20.51, BRL 5.7186, BBDXY 1,275.51, Dollar Index 104.21, Oil $71.36, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $33.94, Platinum $997.00, Palladium $1,008.00, Copper $5.05, and Gold $3,151.98… 

That’s it for today, April Fool’s Day, 4/1/2025… I remember when I was younger, I would always pull an April Fool’s gag on Kathy, but as the years went by, she didn’t care for them, and I ran out of ideas, so now it’s just another day in our lives… Boy, did we have some loud thunderstorms here last night… At first, I couldn’t hear them, because of the oxygen generator that’s always running making its usual noise, but then I saw the lightening out on the ocean, and the rain began to beat a little stronger… Hey, as long as it rains late at night, and not during the daylight hours… Yesterday, I stretched my oxygen hose, all the way to the balcony, and sat in the hot sun for about an hour, and read a book, it sure did feel good to have the sun on my body once again, it had been too long without out it! I can’t wait until I’m healed and can go outside without oxygen and sit in the sun and read! It’ll come sooner or later, probably later, as this has been a slow slog, but better late than never! Thank you to all of you dear readers who sent me get well wishes after my good friend, Frank Trotter wrote to you and told you I was in the hospital… Thank you, thank you, thank you, (in my best Gomer Pyle voice) I go home to my little river town this weekend… I will really miss the Florida sun, and ocean view, and everything else about my winter home… But, there’s no place like home, and we’ll see what happens then…  The band, Chicago, takes us to the finish line today, with their hit song: I’m a Man… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold shines above all else!
• Law Breakers When Will This Stop?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… Yes, it’s been over two weeks since I last wrote to you, but I have a doctor’s note excusing me… You see, on Saturday 3/15, the day after my kids came to see us for a week, I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn’t breath, and my blood / oxygen level had dropped to dangerous levels… My wife rushed me to the hospital, where they immediately took me in, and started trying to figure out what was wrong with me… No fever, no chills, no Covid. 

They quickly diagnosed me as having pneumonia, a bad case of it… But there was something else and they knew it…  After two days of pumping me with antibiotics that should have knocked the stuffing out the pneumonia, the cultures that they grew had diagnosed that not only did I have pneumonia but has E.coli in my lungs along with it…  

We questioned the doctor, and the Infectious Disease doctor said that it was rare, but, immediately I came to the conclusion that it was me… Of course I caught something very rare…  The I.D. Doctor then explained that was the reason the antibiotics weren’t working, that she needed to change them to fight not only the pneumonia but also eradicate the E. Coli… And they did… 

But the damage to my lungs were not healed, not yet… Every time I stand to take a few steps, my blood/ oxygen level drops to dangerous levels, and my heart rate soars… So, baby steps for me until they are healed, and I feel strong again.  In the hospital I calculated how many of my 9 lives I had used so far… I counted to 6… Boy, my nickname on the trade desk was “lucky Chuck”…  I think that is apropos, eh?

So… While I was gone, I didn’t really check the markets, as I had other things to worry about… But while I was gone, Gold has risen from $2,947, to $3,086 at the close last Friday, a $139 gain… And in the early trading, longtime Gold holders will be smiling when they see what the shiny metal has done….  Silver was just as impressive with its move since I last wrote to you, it has gone from $33.14 to $34.34 a gain of $1.20… And Silver is trading alongside Gold this morning too…. 

And did you hear the latest from Lola, aka Goldman Sachs? The have forecast that Gold will reach a price of $3,300 by year end… So, if you think it’s too late to buy Gold at current prices, you might want to re-think that thought, because, as history shows us, What Lola wants, Lola gets…. 

The dollar has seen better times, while I was away…. The BBDXY traded at1,268 the last day I wrote to you, and while I was away the BBDXY had fallen to 1,268, and ended the week, last, the BBDXY was at 1,268…. And was at 1,271 when I last wrote to you…  So, not a tremendous drop, but some wobbling here and there…  The euro has risen to 1.0835, and at one-point last week it touched 1.09….  Not too shabby for all those that said it was going to parity with the dollar a month ago…  And the rest of the currencies have followed the lead of the euro, and all have gotten out of their respective sick beds… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar gained a bit overnight, and the BBDXY sits at 1,271 as I write this morning. The euro is still trading above 1.08, and that’s a good thing… Gold, as I mentioned above, is up $32 in the early trading today and has hit a level above $3,100 for the first time ever! Silver has lost some ground overnight, as the short paper traders have been having a field day with shorting Silver lately, but Silver is up 4-cents to start the day today… 

The price of Oil has wandered around during the last 3 weeks.. But trades this morning with a $69 handle… And there’s been quite a bit of “yield control” administered by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is the last 3 weeks, and the 10-year treasury’s yield has fallen to 4.19%…  that’s a losing deal as far as I’m concerned, with inflation rising, the real yield in Treasuries is negative… Bill Bonner calls buying Treasuries the “dumbest investment in the world”… And unless you stay short, like less than 3 years to maturity, I couldn’t agree more! 

I wanted to mention that Copper is really kicking some tail and taking names later recently… The red metal is trading over $5 and isn’t looking back… Here’s Bloomberg.com and their mention of Copper: “US prices of copper have been on a tear this year due to the fear that tariffs will be imposed on imports of the red metal. Futures prices have hit record highs on New York’s Comex, leading to a premium over the international benchmark in London — similar to the disconnect seen in the gold market.”

There has been so many stories regarding “independence day”, which supposedly will be April 2, when a new list of global tariffs will be announced by the POTUS… These rumors have really knocked the snot out of stocks, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about, stocks, right? But the price of commodities should be taking all this inflation pressure as a sign to rally…  So, I would watch for that to happen soon… 

These tariffs if implemented as rumored, will cause inflation to rise, folks…  John Williams at www.shadowstats.com calculates current inflation at around 13%…  That’s BEFORE the new round of tariffs begin to cause inflation to rise even further…  Funny, not funny HA-HA, the STUPID CPI showed consumer inflation at 2.8%… Now there’s a difference that should be looked at by someone that has far more gray matter than the folks at the BLS, otherwise known as the B.S., to figure out, eh?

But the Gov’t doesn’t care about the effects to the middle-class regarding consumer inflation… As I’ve explained many times in the past, Inflation is the last chance saloon to deal with the enormous debt the country is facing, even with the folks at DOGE finding waste and fraud everywhere… Finding it is one thing, but doing something about it, is another, and so far, all I’m seeing, for the most part is the finding of the waste and fraud, not correcting it, as it will take Congress to get involved there… Turning $20 to $5 helps with the debt…  The only other thing the Gov’t can do is default… And as I’ve told you previously, I don’t doubt that we wont see a default in our lifetime… 

Circling the wagons back to Gold…  here are a couple of snippets of articles regarding law breakers as far as Gold goes….  here’s the first one:

After signing a bill that eliminates sales tax from Gold & Silver sales… “Three Kentucky taxpayers and one of America’s largest precious metals dealers today filed a class-action lawsuit against Governor Andrew Beshear, the Commonwealth of Kentucky, and the Kentucky Department of Revenue for their illegal sales tax collections in connection with retail purchases of physical gold and silver.”

And this one is about a former Fed Reserve employee that was convicted of lying on his disclosures of holding “Fed D” form….  he had done 69 trades and hid them, so sad….  “A former official for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond was sentenced on Tuesday to 24 months imprisonment for misappropriating internal Fed information to engage in insider trading.

The defendant, Robert Brian Thompson, 43, of Moseley, worked as a bank examiner and senior manager with supervisory duties for the Federal Reserve—giving him access to confidential information about financial institutions under the Fed’s supervision, including confidential supervisory information.”

I’ve gotten a little off track this morning, my mind is wandering, and I believe it has to do with all the medicine I’m taking. Besides the bathroom sink full of medicine bottles that I take each day; the hospital sent me home with 4 new ones…  So, please excuse my wandering… 

While I’m at it… Ed Steer highlighted a quote from Abraham Lincoln last week that I think every one needs to not only hear but memorize here we go: “

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week will have the Jobs Jamboree on Friday this week, the ADP employment Report on Wednesday, and some varied economic reports the rest of the week,, starting tomorrow with the ISM manufacturing Index for March, and after recovering to the line drawn in the sand of 50 in February, I expect that the this piece of data will revert back to a level of less than 50  in March… 

To recap… Chuck gives us his doctor’s note as to why he hasn’t written in over two weeks…  Shoot Rudy, I had to spend my 70^th birthday in the hospital!  Chuck also gives us a recap of prices in Gold, Silver and the dollar while he was away, and then he goes and gets all philosophical on us, and starts pointing out lawbreakers, and then ends it with a quote from good old Abe Lincoln…

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from Money Metals.com and it’s about the Fed’s losses from their bond holdings. Remember them? When the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel decided to buy the poison bonds from dealers to help them out of a sticky situation? Well, they’ve come back to haunt the boys and girls at the Central Bank and you can find it here: The Fed Posted Another Big Operating Loss in 2024 and It’s Ultimately Your Problem

Or, here’s your snippet: “While most people view the central bank as an extension of the government, at its core, it is a business, and it is set up to make money.  

Right now, it isn’t.

The Fed’s losses are a direct result of its rate hikes, and its financial condition offers a glimpse behind the curtain into the unseen consequences of its war on price inflation.

After insisting that price inflation was “transitory” for months, the Fed was forced to take action and begin raising interest rates in March 2022. This is the root cause of its current operating losses.

In simplest terms, as it hiked rates, the bank had to pay commercial banks more for the money they parked at the Fed. Meanwhile, its interest income remained static as the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet continued to yield lower interest income. From there, it’s a simple math problem. The bank has paid more interest to banks than it has collected on its asset portfolio.

The root of this problem goes back to the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession when the Fed purchased trillions in low-yielding securities during multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE), followed by an even bigger round of bond-buying during the pandemic years. The Fed purchased these Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during a time when interest rates were pushed artificially low by its own monetary policy.

Today, after having driven interest rates much higher over the last two years, it is paying interest at a much higher rate, however, it is still collecting lower rates of interest on the paper on its balance sheet.”

Chuck again… The article goes on to talk about how this will all end up being our problem going forward… 

Market Prices 3/31/2025: American Style: A$ .6254, kiwi .5690, C$ .6968, euro 1.0824, sterling 1.2953, Swiss $1.1350, European Style: rand 18.3650, krone 10.5438, SEK 10.0209, forint 3.7106, zloty 3.8666, koruna 23.0735, RIUB 84.77, yen 149.28, sing 1.3415, HKD 7.7790, INR 86.47, China 7.2536, peso 20.36, BRL 5.7612, BBDXY 1,271, Dollar Index 103.83, Oil $69.56, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $34.17, Platinum $993.00, Palladium $981.00, Copper $5.09, and Gold… $3,117.89

That’s it for today… Sorry to ramble on about non-market stuff, but I thought it best to know what’s going on… Before I went to the hospital, I had a week of vacation with my Spring Training Buddies, we had a blast, that was very low-key compared to when we were younger… Thank you to Rick and Kevin for making my vacation fun! We saw 4 baseball games in 5 days!  I hope it’s obvious that these fellows are as big of Baseball Fan that I am! And yes, I turned 70 while in the hospital, not the idea I had for the day, for my youngest son and his new bride, were on their way here to celebrate my birthday with me… Alex and Grace did bring me my favorite pizza down here, to the hospital for a birthday celebration dinner so I did get to have a little fun! I looked in the mirror the other day, and was shocked, I’m beginning to look just like my grandfather!  I did age some while in the hospital, but my God, what the hell has happened to me? I no longer look like that picture that accompanies the web site: www.dailypfennig.com…. Good thing I had my 50^th H.S. Reunion 2 years ago! Blood Sweat and Tears take us to the finish line today with their song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy…  Which is how I feel this morning, as I write for the first time in 3 weeks… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the currencies were pretty much flat on Wednesday.
• Gold & Silver took liberties and gained!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… Well, my test results came back yesterday, and I was immediately put on antibiotics to combat my latest setback…And I still didn’t get a good night’s sleep last night, but I know, I know, patience is a virtue.. And I sure have a lot more of that than when I was a young man…. My beloved Cardinals got shut out yesterday by the pond scum (Mets) That’s a playful phrase that originated in the 80’s… The Outfield greet us today with their 80’s song; Your Love… 

The dollar started the day yesterday, on a down note, with the BBDXY down 2 index points, but as the day wore on, the BBDXY gained back 1 of those lost points to end the day at 1,266… No real data was printed, and nothing earthshattering happened… 

Gold fought through the gauntlet that the paper traders had set up for it and found a way to rally $19 on the day to close at $2,935. Silver had the same set up waiting for it, but it fought its way to gain 29-cents, and close at $33.29..

The STUPID CPI for Feb. Printed yesterday, and didn’t show any increase in their inflation calc. I don’t believe an item of their calculation, and neither should you! I do believe that John William at shadowstats.com has CPI (consumer inflation) around 8%… Well, that may be, but around here in S. Forida, I would say that inflation is more around 10%… 

And I found this on MarketWatch.com: “The slower pace of U.S. inflation in February is in line with the moderation seen over the past couple of years, yet it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, as many areas of the consumer-price index have been sticky, according to BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.

The gain in the rate of inflation “has come down greatly from its pandemic-era, supply chain disruption highs, but still there are many areas of the consumption basket that have held at stickier levels,” said Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income and head of the firm’s global allocation investment team, in emailed comments on Wednesday’s CPI report.”

I told you in my abbreviated Pfennig on Tuesday that U.S. Money Supply is growing quickly, and that’s a bad omen for consumer inflation… It’s nice to see someone else use the term “sticky” when talking about inflation! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.30% yield.

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar gained back the 2 index points again, with the BBDXY at 1,268 to start our day today. A fire has been lit under Gold’s price, as it is on the rally tracks this morning, gaining $19 to start the day. Silver is also on the rally tracks gaining 29-cents to start the day… The price of Oil bumped higher by a buck overnight and trades this morning with a $67 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield gained a bit more overnight and starts our day with a 4.33% yield… 

Well, Congress has come up with a “Continuing Resolution”… In other words, another Deficit Spending Bill to avoid the shutdown of Govt. That will happen if nothing was done… These dramas continue to come up every 6 months or so… I call it Kabuki Theater (lots of dancing and good times) . The new “CR” will add an additional $2 Trillion in debt each year, and that’s on top of where we are already, which is probably running over $2 Tillion for this year already… We need a hero… I’m holding out for a hero until the end of the night… (Bonnie Taylor) yes, we need for our POTUS to say “no mas” on additional deficit spending, and stomp his foot down and say the “deficit spending stops here and now!”

The Bank of Canada cut rates another 25 Basis points yesterday, and they are foolishly thinking that they have defeated inflation…  This comes after Trump backed off some of his 25% tariffs…  Well, if and when he gets around to implementing all his proposed tariffs, then the Bank of Canada will rue the day they decided to cut rates… 

The euro saw some profit taking yesterday, and dropped back below the 1.09 handle, but still, this has been quite the impressive run for the euro…  I read where traders are hesitant to move the euro higher in the face of a potential Trade War between the U.S. and Europe, after the POTUS implemented huge tariffs on all sorts of things that Europe exports to us…  This tariff talk is really becoming a problem for not only trading of goods, but also the U.S. Treasury… 

How’s that work Chuck? Well, grasshopper, I’ll tell you, but first we’ll hear the words of the great investment guru, Ray Dalio who said, “Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio on Wednesday warned that a significant supply-demand problem regarding U.S. debt could have a profoundly disruptive impact on the global economy.

It is the latest in a series of stark warnings about America’s mounting debt from the U.S. hedge fund billionaire, with the country’s national debt currently standing at more than $36.2 trillion.

“The first thing is the debt issue, we have a very severe supply-demand problem,” Dalio told CNBC’s Sara Eisen at CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore. ”[The U.S. has] to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy.”

He said this was imminent and of “paramount importance.”

Chuck again… I trust and admire Ray Dalio’s thoughts, folks… It will become interesting if the U.S. can’t find buyers for all their debt…  Can you say QE?

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us today… The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the PPI (wholesale inflation)  I’ve been seeing the PPI prints rising in the last few reports, which is not a good thing for Consumer Inflation…  And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have the Consumer Sentiment, which is nothing more than the pulse of the stock market, and with the stock jockeys running for cover these days, I would suspect this print to be much lower…

To recap… Wednesday was a real yawner for me…  The dollar wallowed around in the mud, God & Silver had to fight to get through the short paper gauntlet, The Bank of Canada cut rates again… Chuck wonders what the heck they are thinking?  And a Continuing Resolution for keeping the Gov’t running until Sept, was passed by Congress, and as usual Chuck takes his shots at the lawmakers who can’t seem to not deficit spend!

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve written about all the physical Gold leaving the London Bullion Market and head to the U.S., and this article talks about “What Comes Next for the LBMA, and it can be found here: LBMA: WHAT COMES NEXT – Charts and Parts

Or, here’s your snippet: “INTRO

The paper gold system is breaking. The fuse was lit long ago — now we’re at the keg.

2,000 tons of gold imported into the US. Who has that kind of pull? Not a hedge fund. Not a foreign buyer.

If it were anyone but the U.S. government, they’d have a knock at their door.

Silence = Sanctioned.

THE CRACKS IN THE SYSTEM

Physical gold demand is off the charts — LBMA stress, BOE delays, and COMEX deliveries. Metals are moving in the shadows.

Paper gold is the illusion. Too many claims, and not enough metal. The unwind has begun.

This isn’t just about gold, it’s about confidence. Once confidence collapses, the rush for real assets begins (Crack-up Boom).

Containment Mode: Authorities attempt to control gold prices through paper manipulation, coordinated central bank interventions, and liquidity injections. Short-term stability is prioritized, but underlying risks keep growing. If trust in financial markets holds, they buy time. If it falters, the next phase begins.

Paper Market Breakdown: Physical gold supply dries up, forcing bullion banks to scramble for metal at higher prices or settle contracts in cash. Spot prices decouple from futures as gold market credibility erodes. Does trust contagion spread beyond gold? A breakdown could shake confidence in broader financial markets.

The Endgame: A transition is coming — whether by force or by design. The question isn’t if, but how fast it unfolds and who dictates the terms.”

Chuck again… Now that’s all pretty scary to me, but good scary… 

Market Prices 3/13/2025: American Style: A$.6287, kiwi .5697, C$ .6947, euro 1.0845, sterlig 1.2932, Swiss $1.1337. European Style: rand 18.4027, krone 10.7963, SEK 10.2073, forint 369.55, zloty 3.8735, koruna 23.1415, RUB 86.75, yen 147.88, sing 1.3359, HKD 7.7716, INR 87.00, China 7.2472, peso 20.16, BRL 5.8130, BBDXY 1,268.02 Dollar Index 103.82, Oil $67.25, 10-year 4.33%, Silver $33.29, Platinum $975.00, Palladium $943.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $2,947.19

That’s it for today and this week… I started the week with a short one, and ended the week with a long one… I hope to back to what is normal for me by Monday… My darling daughter and family will be arriving down here on Saturday, and then when they leave next Friday, my son, Alex and his bride, Grace will come down to celebrate my 70^th Birthday… There I said it so now everyone knows… I may be 70 in human years, but I feel 85 in cancer filled years…  And what better way for me to celebrate my birthday than at the ballpark! My appetite is beginning to come back so that’s a good thing for the weight was dropping off me like flies… Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes take us to he finish line today with their song: If You Don’t Know Be By Now…. I love this version of the song much better than the was redid in the 80’s… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Tuesday
• It’s a STUPID CPI Day, folks…

Good Day… And a Woderful Wednesday to you… Once again, I couldn’t sleep for the life of me last night, so once again, I’m draggin’ the line (Tommy James) after going back to sleep yesterday morning, I talked to my doctor back home, and she advised me to go a lab and have some tests done… So, I did what I was told to do, and then went to the ballgame, of which I wish I hadn’t! U guess I’ll hear today just what is up with me… The good news that hit me yesterday, was that a large piece of the tumor in my jaw, fell out, so at least the infusions are working…. Bob Marley and the Wailers greet me this morning with their song 3 Little Birds… 

Well, I came back to write again yesterday, and the dollar continued to get sold… The BBDXY lost 2 Index Points as the fear of a global Trade War continues to weight on the dollar.  The euro has risen to a 1.09 handle this morning… That’s a long way from parity to the dollar now, isn’t it?  The dollar has been leading the stock jockeys down the trail of tears lately, as the fear of a Global depression hangs over the U.S. like the Sword of Damocles… And when there is fear in stocks, Gold seems, historically, to do good… And yesterday Gold gained $3, and Silver gained 39 cents. To climb up to $33… 

Now we al know that the last time silver reached $33 and all the prognosticators were out singing Silver’s forecast, the short paper trades stepped in and took Silver down BIG TIME…. So, boys… Let’s just keep our traps shut about Silver’s rise this time, eh?

The Price of Oil continues to be beaten down , and it ended the day yesterday trading with a $66 handle… A cheaper price for gas will certainly help the summer driving season that will be upon us soon…  The 10-year Treasury’s yield continues to fall ending yesterday with a 4.27% yield…  I think the markets are thinking that the Fed heads might be thinking about cutting rates again… The last time the bond boys called the Fed Head’s bluff… But it appears that no such calling out is being done this time. 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, I take that back… The 10-year’s yield rose 3 basis points in the overnight markets and trades this morning with s 4.30% yield… Maybe the bon boys were just waiting for the right moment to lash out at the Treasury… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

The dollar rallied overnight and gained back those 2 index points it lost in yesterday’s U.S. session. It seems that the POTUS is taking back his threats on Canadian tariffs… C’Mon pick a lane will you Mr. President… 

The Price of Gold starts today flat as a pancake (Head East) but Silver is up 11-cents to start our day today…  And I’m really liking the strong move that Silver has made in the past week, after the last engineered takedown…  And Copper is back to moving toward $5… 

Well, if you weren’t paying attention.. The POTUS has stopped payments to Ukraine… I can’t say that I blame him, in that there’s been no true accounting as to where the Billions of dollars that we’ve previously have given to them has been spent…

Today is the STUPID CPI print day for Feb. The experts have the STUPID CPI rising .3% in the month and remaining at 3.3% for the year… The markets await this data print like Christmas morning, and they are wrong to do so, but I’ve been through that many times previously, so I won’t bore you here again… 

There’s nothing else on the docket in the Data Cupboard today, so it’s the STUPID CPI and nothing else, so the print will dominate the news wires.. Get ready, set, Go! 

I’m still not even close to being good this morning, so, this Pfennig will be short-n-sweet too… Sorry, but I can’t help it… 

To recap… The dollar continued to get sold yesterday but rallied back in the overnight markets last night.  Gold & Silver had decent days yesterday, with Silver breaching $33 once again.  The POTUS is walking back the tariff threats to Canada… Chuck just wants the POTUS to pick a lane and stay there, all this back and forth is giving him a rash!  

For What It’s Worth… Welll the BLS will never see these layoffs because the work with blinders on, but you and me here they are and they are not pretty… This is a list of the 100 companies in the U.S that are announcing workers layoffs and it can be found here:  Full List of Companies Laying Off Employees in March – Newsweek

Or, here’s your snippet: “Many companies have announced they will be laying off employees in March.

Companies are required to send out a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) notice before implementing mass layoffs. More than 90 employers are planning to let workers go in March, according to WARNTracker.com.

As companies deal with inflation and shifting consumer demand, many have faced financial strife in the years following the pandemic.

While tech layoffs have been some of the most commonly discussed in the news, workers are being let go industry-wide in efforts by companies to boost profits.

Many companies have announced they will be laying off employees in March.

As companies deal with inflation and shifting consumer demand, many have faced financial strife in the years following the pandemic.

While tech layoffs have been some of the most commonly discussed in the news, workers are being let go industry-wide in efforts by companies to boost profits.

The number of employees laid off per company varies from between one and 10 to up to 500.

While Walgreens is potentially laying off hundreds of employees across California, other companies like fabric and crafts retailer Joann face total store shutdowns, eliminating their workforce from distribution and fulfillment centers.

Companies are required to send out a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) notice before implementing mass layoffs. More than 90 employers are planning to let workers go in March, according to WARNTracker.com.”

Chuck again… Well, you know that I don’t have to space and time to list all 100 companies, but if you click the link above you can see them in all their glory… 

Market Prices 3/12/2025: American Style: A$ .6289, kiwi .5708, C$ .6936, euro 1.0904, sterling 1.2949, Swiss $1.1332, European Style: rand 18.3382, krone 10.6677, SEK 10.0938, forint 367.34, zloty 3.8467, koruna 22.9357, RUB 86.69, yen 148.70, sing 1.3337, HKD 7.7693, INR 87.20, China 7.2422, peso 20.25, BRL 5.8105, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103.57, Oil $66.89, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $33.11, Platinum $992.00, Palladium $974.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $2,916.57

That’s it for today… I can’t believe I got through this, sort of, that is… The sunrise this morning was at its best, with no marine layer to hide its entry from out of the ocean… It’ll be a warm day at the ballpark today, that is if I can muster up and get there! My beloved Cardinals can’t hit when it counts in the games I’ve watched, I sure that doesn’t follow them north… I think the starting pitching has been decent, but all the young guys they keep trotting out there to relieve just haven’t cut the mustard… UGH!  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Deacon Blues… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck

• the dollar is really getting sold these days
• Gold & Silver are on the rally tracks today

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to one and all… Well, this won’t be a normal Pfennig this morning, as I am whacked! I haven’t been able to sleep much for the last two nights… I feel like death warmed over, and I’ sure it’s the infusions doing the trick on me… I’ve been up all night again, and need to sleep, so back to sleep I’ll go as soon as I get a few points across…

I truly don’t feel lie writing today, and hopefully I’ll recover by tomorrow.

All I have to say is that While Chuck was away, the currencies played! The dollar has lost a ton of ground, with the BBDXY ending Feb. At 1,290, and ending yesterday at 1,269… The euro has bulked up to trade with a 1.07 handle, and the rest of the currencies are following the BIG DOG off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. 

One would think that Gold would be on the rally tracks, and while it is lately, it had ended February down several days, and on Feb 28th, Gold ended the month at $1,258…  and Gold ended the day yesterday at $2.889… Silver suffered the same treatment and ended February at $31.21, and then ended yesterday at $32.18…  These aren’t bad outcomes, but they should be a whole lot better, if you ask me! 

One thing that I do want to point out this morning is that there was a report the other day that said, that “money supply in the U.S. is growing”…  Now for all of you who follow Chuck’s definition of inflation… Money Supply is inflation… So, we all have that to look forward to… 

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar continued to get sold, with the BBDXY losing 2 more index points, and Gold is on the rally tracks this morning, up $24 to start the day, and Silver is joining in and is up 44-cents to start the day… 

I’m feeling a little low right ow, so I’m going to cut this off and get it out.. 

Market Prices 3/11.2025: American Style: A$ .6263, kiwi .5699, C$ .6770, euro 1.0897, sterling 1.2934, Swiss $1.1335, European Style: rand 18.2552, krone 10.6706, SEK 10.0691, forint 376.64, zloty 3.8483, koruna 22.9106, RUB 85.62, yen 147.05, sing 1.2323, HKD 7.7694, INR 87.22, China 7.2348, peso 20.34, BRL 5.8563, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103..54, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $32.61, Platinum $987.00, Palladium $982.00, Copper $487. And Gold… $2,913.84

That’s it for today, sorry for the abbreviated version especially after me being gong for so long… Yesterday was my good friend, Rick B. Celebrating his birthday… We went to lunch to celebrate it, and then he got on a plane and went home, after spending the last week with me, and my whining, and bellyaching, and needed help… Thank you Rick and Kevin!  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• But get sole in the overnight markets… UGH!

Good Day, and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! This is the last Pfennig until I return on March 11… I know, that seems like a long time, but, time will fly for me, I’m sure! My beloved Cardinals finally got a win yesterday, and the lineup featured mostly starters for at least 6 innings… We hemmed and hawed about going to the game, since the forecast was for rain, but in the end, we went, and left before the rain began in the 7th… I came home and collapsed in my recliner and didn’t wake up until it was dark outside. UGH! I experienced another stomach problem yesterday, and those usually knock me out.. The Atlanta Rhythm Section greets me this morning with their song: Imaginary Lover

The dollar range traded yesterday, going up a buck and back down by a buck throughout the day, but in the end the BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day. Gold experienced another record setting day, climbing $18 to $2,954, and Silver was flat on the day, ending the day at $32.42… Gold has been being bought most recently as a safe haven, and if that continues, it means that Gold will be well-bid this week. Market sentiment, as we have seen, can be quite fickle and quirky, with an itchy trigger finger, so that’s why said, “if it continues”… 

The price of Oil, which also happens to be range trading these days, bumped higher to end the day trading with a $71 handle, and the 10-year Treasury keeps seeing it being bought, and with that buying the yield on the bond has slipped downward… The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day yesterday at 4.38%… Treasuries too, have been being bought on a safe haven basis… Although I would argue that going further out on the yield curve in Treasuries is a risk, to me, that is… 3-year max is my rule… 

In the overnight markets last night… It’s a game of give and take; the dollar lost the 1 index point it had gained in the overnight trading last night… Our debt problems are not viewed as a “problem” here in the U.S, while overseas they see the writing on the wall…  A cat has been thrown among the pigeons in the early trading for Gold & Silver today… The short paper traders have watched Gold reach another all-time record price yesterday, and said, “Whoa There Pardner” The short paper traders have unleashed a fury of paper trades this morning, and Gold is down $27 to start the day, while Silver has given back 57-cents! And fallen back below the $32 handle… I tell you this and you’ve heard it a million times before… I have total disdain for the short paper traders, they could all be on a rocket ship that’s projected nowhere, and it wouldn’t be enough to undue all the evils they have unleashed on the metals… 

And speaking of give and take: The price of Oil gave back the $1 it gained yesterday in the overnight trading last night… And trades this morning with a $70 handle…  The 10-year Treasury is watching all the hard work that they had put in to getting the yield to rise, erode… UGH! Oh, well… Que sera sera… 

Well, the audit of Ft. Knox is going to happen… But let me be clear here, it’s not just counting bars of Gold or looking them over to see if they are real… The auditors will have to look under the hood, and seek out the Gold lease agreements… And ensure that the serial numbers on the bars are the same as the invoice or shipping manifest… This whole scenario is becoming a great story line for a movie… For what IF, there are discrepancies? Uh-Oh… 

The other news story that cam across last night was that finally there has been a surge in buying the Gold ETF… While in a way around the bases, there’s a buying of physical Gold there, it’s not the kind of investor physical Gold buying that I was talking about yesterday… 

But, as long as it surrounds buying Gold, that’s the thing I want to see from all investors, for it’s the way I see as an end to the short paper traders… 

Don’t know if you follow the currency roundup each day, but it you do, you will have noticed a change in the direction of the Japanese yen… Yes, the yen traded below the 150 level for two consecutive days, and that means the yen is getting bought… Right now, mostly by Pension funds, hedge funds, and whatever fund. Their inventory managers are thinking that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is going to follow up their rate hike earlier this month, with another rate hike soon…  I hate to be the guy that pulls away the punch bowl at a party, but… I doubt the BOJ will be that aggressive with their rate decisions… I’m not saying that an eventual rate hike from the BOJ isn’t coming, but instead, I’m offering a delay in those rate hikes… 

The euro is nearing 1.05 again, and each time it has done that, it gets beaten back down… But maybe a 3^rd time is a charm and the euro can maintain the figure for more than a day… And once again, this euro strength is coming as a result of it being the offset currency to the dollar… The dollar has been weaker, the euro has been stronger… The euro did get a mini burst in price from the election results last Sunday, that we talked about yesterday.  A Conservative Coalition Gov’t is what the people in Germany wanted, and with Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, the northern Eurozone countries will also like it… As for the Club Med currencies in the South don’t have a clue…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the stupid consumer Confidence for this month… This is nothing more than a pulse of the stock market, and since stocks have found that they are no longer on a ONE-WAY street, I expect the Confidence number to have fallen this month… 

To recap… The dollar range traded yesterday before ending the day up 1 index point in the BBDXY. Gold rallied, then got sold, then rallied again to end the day up $18… And Silver was flat…  The Ft. Knox audit is ON! And Chuck reminds the auditors to look under the hood…  And the Japanese yen is in rally mode… I know, it sounds strange o say that! 

For What It’s Worth… . I talked about the DOGE group attempting to get our financial situation sorted out a bit. Well, his partner in the Ft. Knox audit will be Ron Paul, who has been a shining light for us that think we should question everything the Gov’t implements, comes up with etc.  Well, Ron Paul wrote an article in Daily Reckoning about cutting the defense budget, and I like his thoughts!  And it can be found here: Can We Really Cut Half of The Military Budget? You Bet! – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “The wailing sound you heard last Thursday was the chorus of the Beltway warmongers shrieking in despair at President Trump’s suggestion that there was no reason for the United States to be spending one trillion dollars on “defense.”

“…One of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, and I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half. And we can do that, and I think we’ll be able to do that,” the President told reporters.

With this statement, President Trump blew up one of the biggest myths of our time, particularly among Republicans, that spending more on the military is essential to keeping us safe.

There is a vast and well-funded network of political and industrial interests that depend on maintaining that myth, from the weapons manufacturers to the mainstream media to the think tanks and beyond. Why? Because most of what is called “defense spending” has little to do with defending this country and a lot to do with enriching the politically well-connected.

We also need a change in policy. Americans are beginning to understand the economic costs of maintaining a global military empire. US taxpayers are forced to cover more than half of the entire NATO budget while European countries rattle sabers at Russia and threaten war.

If Europe feels so threatened by Russia, why don’t they cover the costs of their own defense? Why do poor Americans have to pay for the defense of rich Europeans? Haven’t we had enough of this?

I very much hope that President Trump follows through with his plan to drastically reduce our bloated military budget. We can start by closing the hundreds of military bases overseas, bringing back our troops from foreign countries, and eliminating our massive commitments to NATO and other international organizations.

We will be richer, safer, and happier.”

Chuck again…  Some of you may recall that Chuck’s debt solutions were a call to close all military bases around the world, especially in countries that don’t like us there to begin with, and bring the soldiers home to defend our border… So, it’s nice… That old saying has an iota of truth to it here, that great minds think alike! HA!

Market prices 2/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6343, kiwi .5722, C$ .7011, euro 1.0496, sterling 1.2667, Swiss $1.1203, European Style: rand 18.3744, krone 11.1203, SEK 10.6106, forint 382.25, zloty 3.9442, koruna 23.7781, RUB 86.60, yen 149.52, sing 1.3384, HKD 7.7742, INR 87.20, China 7.2605, peso 20.50, BRL 5.8096, BBDXY 1,286, Dollar index 106.41, Oil $70.44, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $31.86, Platinum $967.00, Palladium $937.00, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $2,927.56

That’s it for today… No sappy story for you today, sorry about being that open about my sorrow… Tomorrow I head home for my 4^th infusion, and this time I get 6 weeks between them. I return on Monday, with my Spring Training buddies… On the same plane! No worries, it’s a very early flight, so I doubt we’ll be much trouble… And then my annual spring vacation begins… YAHOO! Well, I proved myself to be up to the task… My wife doubted that I would be able to walk from the parking garage to the stadium, up the stairs and to my seat without taking a break… But for two consecutive days, I nailed it Gov.! It wasn’t a walk in the park, but wasn’t too bad… It’s the little victories that I enjoy at this stage of my life and health… The Wonderful Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: Son of a Preacher Man… It’ll be March when we next talk, so I hope you have plenty of days of seashells and balloons, and that you’ll especially have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler