Author: admin

• Dollar drifts at sea…
• U.S. Debt is like a frog in boiling water…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, we had visitors this past weekend, good friends, Gus and Diane, were here, and well, the weather didn’t cooperate… It was overcast, rainy and chilly… I know it seems strange to say chilly when it was 72, but… without sunshine, it was… The National College Football Championship game is tonight… Good luck to the teams, that are playing, Michigan and Washington… I would like to see Washington win, as I’m still on the fence as to whether Michigan should have been allowed to play in the playoffs to start… The Rascals greet me this morning with their hit song: A Beautiful Morning… 

Well, after a hell bent and whiskey bound start to the year, the dollar kind of backed off all the buying as the week ended… On Thursday morning, the BBDXY was 1,223.71… On Friday at the close the BBDXY was 1,224.14… So, the dollar was up less than 1/2 index point. The PPT had gone back into their cave, where they had crawled out of to intervene in the currency markets once again, last week. It’s getting to be a bad habit, that whenever the dollar begins to fade, and it appears the markets want to take it lower, the PPT steps in and buys dollars, with their Treasure Trove of : Exchange Stabilization Funds…   One of these days the PPT’s well will run dry, and then who’s going to be there to save the dollar? 

The price of Gold gained $2.10 on Thursday, and $2.20 on Friday, to close the week at $2,045.60… Silver saw a small gain of 2-cents on Thursday, and 18-cents on Friday to close the week at $23.19. Both metals were much higher both days, only to see the short paper traders enter the markets and reduce the gains the two metals had booked intraday. Again, one of these days, the short paper traders will have to eat their short trades, and take losses, and back out of their Ponzi Scheme, and when that finally happens, to the moon, Alice!   I’m just saying…

The price of Oil ended the week at $72.87, just a short hop, skip and jump from the $73 handle… the price of Oil has seemed to settle in right around $70-$73 for now… Biding its time before exploding higher… Well, that’s what I see for the price of Oil, what do you see? 

The 10-year moved back above the 4% yield level on Friday… The Jobs Jamboree which was lies, and more lies, said that 216,000 jobs were created in December… I would have to think that a majority of those jobs were temporary seasonal work… Now that Santa isn’t needed in the Food Court at the Mall any longer, he’ll be showing up for unemployment again… And that goes for Mrs. Claus in the bakery dept too!  

Anyway… the Jobs Jamboree basically told the bond boys to “wait, a minute, and not go so fast on that rate cut talk”… And so bonds got sold once again… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Oh my…. What are the short paper traders doing this morning? They have Gold down $25 in the early trading today, and Silver down 28-cents! Serenity now! I know that I said long ago that I wasn’t going to get upset with the dirty rotten scoundrels any longer, but this really got to me this morning… There’s no dollar rally going on, there’s no bond market rally going on, and the geopolitical problems seem to be escalating daily, but Gold can’t find a bid? Give me a break! This is so brazen and bold, that I do have to give the short paper traders credit for their intestinal fortitude!  

So, like I said there’s no dollar rally going on, the BBDXY is up just a smidgen this morning, and with no real economic news on the docket this morning, that’s the direction of the dollar for today… adrift at sea…  

Well, here’s a little ditty that seemed interesting to me… This is from Bloomberg.com “Non-commercial traders — a group that includes hedge funds, asset managers and other speculative market players — added to their short positions on the dollar in the week ended Tuesday, according to CFTC data compiled by Bloomberg. Roughly 96,800 contracts worth almost $10 billion are now tied to expectations that the US currency will fall, up more than 26,000 from the previous week and the most bearish since late August.”

Chuck again… Well, with the way the dollar began the year, on a tear, these boys and girls are probably second guessing their short positions… But not to fear, I’ve seen the dollar begin years strong before, and then suddenly fade, and truly expect that to happen again in 2024…. 

And after last week’s Jobs Jamboree, I would have to say that either the Fed Heads will have to delay any rate cut this year, or have to admit that they never were worried about the strong jobs market, and wage induced inflation… Now, which one do you think the Fed Heads will choose? Thank you Bob Barker, I’ll take what’s behind door #1… I was asked this question a couple of weeks ago regarding the Fed Heads potential rate cuts… I said then and I still stand by that statement, that I didn’t think the markets were correct in thinking that the Fed Heads would cut rates as soon as March 2024… I said that if anything, the earliest a rate cut could come is June, and by then who the heck knows what will be the financial situation in the U.S.?  Chances are, because I wear a silly grin, no wait! That’s not where you were going, Chuck! Chances are the rate cuts will not materialize in 2024… Then what happens to the dollar?  

I came across this headline in the Business Insider.com “The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a ‘boiling frog’ situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns”…

Yes, that’s the old adage about how if you put a frog in a pot of boiling water, he’ll jump out! But if you put him in a pot of warm water, and slowly turn up the heat, he will get boiled…  So, what JP Morgan is saying here is that the debt is slowly turning up the heat on the economy… YIKES!  You know, that when you hear a Big Box Broker/ Casino Bank talking about problems for the economy and debt, you know that there is a real problem out there! I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the aforementioned Jobs Jamboree… In addition the Jobs report showed that there had been a 4.1% increase in Hourly Wages in the past year… Well, if we use the real inflation data that John Williams computes for us that says that Consumer Inflation is running around 8%, then we can clearly see that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation… And that’s not good, folks… How long can U.S. Consumers keep reaching into savings, or running up debt on their Credit Cards, before this all comes crashing down?   I don’t know the answer to that question, but if I took a stab at answering it, I would say not past this year…  Uh-Oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week, doesn’t have a lot of real economic data to print, until we get to our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, when the Stupid CPI will print… Right now the so-called experts have CPI increasing month to month at .2%, and annualized CPI increasing .2% to 3.3%… See what I mean about how this report is plain Stupid? Calculated without hedonic measures, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  compute CPI at 8%… not 3.3%… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar started the year last week on a tear… But by the end of the week, it was scratching and clawing for any upward movement, which turned out to be not really coming… Gold finally got its head above water on both Thursday and Friday last week, albeit by small amounts. Chuck points out that the non-commercial traders have built a strong long position in Gold… So, something has to shake out of this situation folks… 

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at GATA sent me this on Sunday, and while reading it, I decided to feature it in my FWIW article today. This is an article about how Gold has outperformed stocks and bonds since the turn of the century, and it can be found here: Gold still outshining stocks and bonds since the turn of the century | Morningstar

Or, here’s your snippet: “Stocks outpaced gold in 2023, but the yellow metal still posted stronger annualized returns since the turn of the century, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices

No yield, no dividend, no problem?

That appears to be the case for gold when it comes to its performance against both stocks and bonds as the calendar flips ever deeper into the 21st century. The chart below from S&P Dow Jones Indices shows the relative performance of the yellow metal, as measured by Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold, versus the S&P 500 SPX, between Dec. 31, 1999, and Dec. 29, 2023.

Unlike some stocks, gold – like other commodities – pays no dividends. Unlike bonds, it pays no coupon. That’s often described as raising the opportunity cost of holding gold versus assets that produce some sort of yield. Still, DJCI Gold, which is designed to track the market via futures contracts (GC00), has outpaced both since the turn of the millennium.

Going back to the start of the century, DJCI Gold produced a 7.8% annual return, compared to a 7% return for the S&P 500 during that time, said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a blog post this week.

Adjusting for volatility, gold has provided slightly better risk-adjusted returns than stocks, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.48 versus 0.45 for equities, Luke wrote. The ratio compares the return on an investment with its risk.

Bonds aren’t even close when it comes to annualized returns. The iBoxx USD Overall Index, which measures investment-grade government and corporate bonds, has seen an average return of 4.1% since 1999, according to Luke, though its Sharpe ratio is slightly better at 0.89.”

Chuck again… Well, I had always suspected that to be true, and now I have the data and the facts to prove me correct! 

Market Prices 1/8/2023: American Style: A$ .6683. kiwi .6216. C$ 7470, euro 1.0938, sterling 1.2705, Swiss $1.1741, European Style: rand 18.7429, krone 10.4218, SEK 10.2864, forint 345.29, zloty 3.9753, koruna 22.3997, RUB 91.06, yen 144.56, sing 1.3325, HKD 7.8073, INR 83.13, China 7.1623, peso 16.88, BRL 4.8889, BBDY 1,224.98, Dollar Index 102.49, Oil $73.06, 10-year 3.05%, Silver $22.91, Platinum $954.00, Palladium $1,017.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold… $2,020.18

That’s it for today… Well, our friends go home today… so sad… back to the cold of the north!  I saw where the St. Louis region got a dusting of snow last week… I get the feeling that the weather pattern is about to change again, and we’ll start having colder winters up north, with more snow… The NFL Playoffs are set, and start this coming Saturday… Why on earth are some of the playoff games only on Peacock, a streaming station?  I do believe that the NFL is shooting themselves in the foot on this… I’m just saying… Our Blues have won 2 games in a row… They changed their head coach, and they seem to be playing better… Go Blues!  And there are 38 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! The countdown has begun! For me at least!  HA! Doucette takes us to the finish line today with their song: Mama Let Him Play…  And with that I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the interference in the markets has been quite prevalent…
• Earthquake in Japan, deep sixes the rate hike thoughts…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well my trip down to the South was delayed, of course, and we didn’t pull into our place until after 1 AM… I’m beat! I don’t know what it is about flying, but I always feel beat after arriving at my destination. So… Here I am… It’s very early, and the shutters that we closed before leaving in Nov. are still closed… We would have opened them last night, but it was too late for such noise. The PPT was back at work the first 2 days of the year, so we have that to talk about this morning, along with some other things that crossed my mind while traveling yesterday… King Crimson greets me this morning with their song: In The Court of the Crimson King… A rock classic for sure!

Well… Not only was the PPT in making sure the dollar didn’t fall any further the last two days, the short paper traders were at it again too! First they took Gold by $4.50 Tuesday, and then another $18 yesterday… Gold closed yesterday at $2,041.49… Silver was also taken to the woodshed the last two days, with Tuesday’s loss of 13.5-cents and then a whopping 65-cents yesterday. Silver closed yesterday at $23.01…  UGH!  

The price of Oil traded throughout the day yesterday trying to get back to $73, but fell short, and ended the day trading with a $72 handle… Bonds are still wishy washy, turbulent and not knowing which way to go, and the 10-year ended the day at 3.91% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…Well, apparently the foreign markets didn’t get the memo that the dollar bugs were back buying dollars, with the PPT’s backing, because the dollar drifted last night, and didn’t add to the day’s shenanigans. In fact the dollar lost 1 index point in the BBDXY overnight… So, maybe that’s a signal that the all-clear horn has sounded, and the PPT has gone back to their lair, I guess we’ll see for sure when the U.S. boys and girls return to their desks…  

The price of Oil finally climbed back over the $73 handle last night, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 3.96%… Bonds are a mixed bag-o-nuts right now, and I wouldn’t touch them with your ten-foot pole!   

You know, the news from Japan over the weekend was horrible. The earthquake they experienced was strong, and it has caused considerable damage in Japan… So, other than the horrible loss of lives, the markets have done a 180 on the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike… That thought has been put to bed, for now, and the selling of the yen has replaced it… Goes to show you that all the plans of mice and men… right? 

Well… congratulations U.S. Congress people… You made it to $34 Trillion! Yes, it was reported yesterday that, “The total US national debt spiked by $1.0 trillion in 15 weeks since September 15, to $34.0 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon. In the seven months since the debt ceiling was lifted, the national debt spiked by $2.5 trillion.”

And that brings me back to what I told you back when the debt ceiling was kicked further down the road, that the debt accumulation would spiral upward quickly because of the all the debt that was on hold…  So, here we are already with $1 Trillion in debt in the first 3 months of the fiscal year… Oh my! 

Well, Bill Bonner of www.bonnerprivateresearch.com had something to say about all this new debt, let’s listen in: “A long-held guess here at BPR is that the US would eventually follow Argentina on the road to ruin…with high levels of corruption and inflation. Amid all the noise and to-do of 2023, it was hard to follow the tune. But in the deep background, the tango beat grew stronger.  

Stocks hit a high note; wars and massacres continued; US politics degenerated into buffoonery; inflation eased off. Over the course of the last two administrations, 2017-2024, US debt increased from $19.9 trillion to $33.9 trillion – or at the rate of $2 trillion per year.  Last October and November set a new debt record – with a deficit of $383 billion for the first two months of the fiscal year, or $2.3 trillion annualized. No attack on the US. No depression. No emergency…not even a bad hair day…and yet, US politicians spent money as if they were Argentines! “

Chuck again… Say it ain’t so, Joe! We can’t be following the Argentines can we? Oh, yes we most certainly could be…  I’m just saying

And knowing all of this should put a bee in the bonnet of many investors that have shunned physical Gold (& Silver) But, as a good friend told me recently after meeting with his investment manager, “I asked him if I could buy Gold in my account, and he told me “we have no way of doing that”!  So this means if you have your investments handled by a agent at a Big Brokerage Firm, you’ll have to withdraw some funds, and buy it on your own…   

And you had better buy it very soon, because even though Gold has backed off from its lofty figure of last week, it will soon revisit that, and more, if things go the way I see them going in 2024…  

And the good folks at GATA sent me this note yesterday, “Investors flocked to gold in record numbers in 2023 as global economic turbulence triggered a flight to safety, according to the Royal Mint.The number of people buying gold and precious metal bars and coins jumped by 7% year-on-year, surpassing the highs of the 2020 lockdown investing boom.”

And yet… Gold only had a 13% gain in 2023… I know I told you on Tuesday that Gold’s gain in 2023 was only 3%… But I had looked at the number incorrectly…  You would think that with a 7% jump in physical gold buying in 2023, the gain would have been greater… right? But we all know what’s holding Gold back… now don’t we?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ISM manufacturing index for Dec on Tuesday, and you may recall me telling you that I thought it would continue to show contraction, with a number below 50… And that it did with 47.2 showing… Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the ADP Employment Report, which is showing that it could be 130,000, and then tomorrow the Jobs Jamboree prints for December, and who knows what the BLS has up their sleeve! It will be something interesting for sure… but be certain that it’s full of lies, lies, and more lies… 

To recap… Ever since the new year began the interference in the metals and the dollar has been at an all-time high! Or at least that is what it seems!  Gold has lost quite a bit of ground from its lofty figure of year end… And the dollar has won back some of the lost ground it has succumbed to in recent months, with the PPT in buying dollars to save it from more humiliation… Gold has a record year of physical buying in 2023… So, put that in your pipe and smoke it, price manipulators! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I decided to go a different route today, and will focus on health… You know, I’ve told you that I eliminated sweets from my diet 4 years ago, now… And then I read this article and thought, well, I’m one step ahead! This is about sugar in your diet and it can be found here: Dr. Says Quitting Sugar Can Stop Most Chronic Diseases (needtoknow.news)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Dr. Robert Lustig, MD, is a retired professor at the University of California, San Francisco and specializes in the field of neuroendocrinology. He explained the dangers of consuming sugar and said that it poisons mitochondria that causes a decrease in the energy that powers our cells. Sugar is not a food because it inhibits growth and energy production. Lustig says that sugar feeds cancer, and it dramatically raises the risk for Alzheimer’s Disease, cardiovascular disease, and other metabolic diseases. He said that if people eat a real food diet, most chronic diseases go away.

Dr. Lustig said that in the 1960’s, the sugar industry paid $6,500 to Fred Stare, the chairman of the Department of Nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health, and his associate Mark Hegsted, who later became the head of the US Department of Agriculture, to exonerate sugar and instead blame saturated fat for negative health effects. They were paid to write false review articles in the New England Journal of Medicine that were peer reviewed.”

Chuck again… I didn’t completely eliminate sugars 4 years ago, I still use creamer in my coffee… But, I’m buying sugar-free creamer now, so that will complete the circle!  

Market Prices 1/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6726, kiwi .6249, C$ .7499, euro 1.0953, sterling 1.2694, Swiss $1.1764, European Style: rand 18.6552, krone 10.2941, SEK 10.2143, forint 345.78, zloty 3.9680, koruna 22.5078, RUB 91.22, yen 144.18, sing 1.3279, HKD 7.8082, INR 83.23, China 7.1510, peso 17.0005, BRL 4.9110, BBDXY 1,223.71, Dollar Index 102.41, Oil $73.46, 10-year 3.96%, Silver $20.98, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $1,068.00, Copper $3.87, and Gold… $2,045.84

That’s it for today and this week… Well, not only am I in my winter home now, but I’m back with my good friend, Frank Trotter, and being sponsored by Battle Bank… It’s been a long time coming, it’s been a long time gone… But we’re back together! YAHOO! Well, the National Championship for college football will be played Monday Night… Should be a real barn burner! The Uber driver last night, saw that I was wearing my Mizzou Tigers baseball cap, and said, “how about those Tigers beating The Ohio State!?” I said, MIZ baby! Fantasy Football leagues should be have wrapped up their seasons last week, as this week is the last week of football, and those teams that guaranteed a spot in the playoffs win or lose, will not play their stars the whole game if any of the game… The Electric Light Orchestra (ELO) takes us to the finish line today with their song: Can’t Get You Out Of My Head….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The U.S. dollar continues to get sold…
• The dollar’s use in trade slips again…

Good Day… And a year-end, Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I don’t know up front how long this letter will be today, as I’m very anxious to begin to get ready for my trip to my winter home in the South…  These days, my wife has flown and spent so much that she has a companion pass, so she booked our trip to Florida, and just added me as her free companion… I thought we had talked about leaving today 12/28, but she threw me a curve and we are now scheduled to leave next Wednesday… UGH!  That means for the first time in many years, I will be home for NYE, I guess I had better find a restaurant that will take a reservation!  The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: The Year of the Cat… 

Well, the year-end drive to get the dollar lower continued yesterday, with the dollar getting sold again, and the BBDXY losing 4 index points… The feeling has been cast on to the dollar bugs that the Fed Heads are eventually going to cut rates next year, and so all the dollar buying because the Fed Heads were in a rate hike cycle is now being unwound… There’s a lot more unwinding to go, I’m just saying!  

Gold had a stellar day, gaining $10.50 and closing at $2,077.50. Silver turned the early morning selling around yesterday, and gained 5-cents on the day to close at $24.28… You know it occurred to me the other day that Gold is really coming into a period where individuals, hedge funds, pensions, etc. are realizing what a store of value it is, especially in these times of geopolitical problems, and unknowns…. Those “unknowns” are really scary things folks, especially to traders… So as we go into year-end 2023, Gold is putting on a rally to bring it to new all-times highs… put that in your logbook, so you can always go back and say, I remember the day Gold hit its all-time high, and hasn’t looked back! 

I have to mention the short paper traders here, even with Gold climbing higher, the short paper traders have been in trying to manage the price of the metals, both Gold & Silver… Here’s Ed Steer’s view of what’s going on: “It was yet another day where the commercial traders of whatever stripe made their presence felt both in Globex and COMEX trading, as it was another case of where if they hadn’t, gold and silver would be beyond the moon.

It was most notable once again in silver, where ‘da boyz’ only allowed it to close higher on the day by a few pennies…well off its high tick.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

Chuck again… So, while Gold seems to be rid of the short paper traders, it’s not like that at all… They have to keep at it to keep the Ponzi scheme that they have created going…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $74 handle. And bonds continue to get bought with the 10-year’s yield falling to 3.80%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Dollar got sold more overnight… The old Dollar Index has fallen below 101, and looks like it’s headed to a sub 100 figure soon… The BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight, and all that has brought the euro to a 1.11 handle…  And the rest of the currencies are all looking much healthier.  Even the Japanese yen is getting in on the dollar weakness… Remember I told you weeks ago that this could be in yen’s future, as long as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) comes through with a rate hike… The BOJ is still hemming an hawing about when they will hike rates, so for now, it seems the large traders are piling into yen, maybe forcing the BOJ to hike rates sooner than later… 

The Chinese renminbi is also perking up… The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) are really the engine of the de-dollarization plan that’s been hatched and headed by China and Russia… I have something for you on the dollar’s slipping in use for trade in the FWIW section today… 

The price of Oil has slipped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $73 handle. And bonds continue to get bought… Was it too soon for the bond rally?  Only time will tell… and forecasts are useless, here… 

This scenario that’s playing out right now with the Fed Heads contemplating a rate hike in 2024, reminds me of the late 70’s and early 80’s… Let’s go back in time and revisit this time to see what I’m talking about… Inflation was soaring in the 70’s and head Fed Head, Paul Volcker hiked rates to 20%… Then it appeared that he had beaten inflation back, as it dropped… And a rate cut came too soon it turned out… For inflation roared back and the Fed Heads had to hike rates again…   

So, see what I’m talking about here?  Will history repeat itself here? I’m thinking that the chances are better than average that will happen… I’m just saying…  And if that happens, all these bond buyers will be in deep dookie… 

It’s been quite the event-filled year for yours truly… I went on my first cruise, without my kids, I suffered a stroke, but quickly recovered, I had my first low-sugar event, that was scary, until i realized what it was… I changed chemos twice during the year, my youngest son, Alex got engaged, and is busy planning a wedding… And I’ve spent two nights in the ER with bleeding that won’t stop… Other than those things, I lead a pretty boring life… I’m just saying…

Well… Zerohedge.com reported yesterday that: “A new report from the Financial Times shows twenty of the world’s largest banks slashed 61,905 jobs in 2023, a move to protect profit margins in a period of high interest rates amid a slump in dealmaking and equity and debt sales. This compared with the 140,000 lost during the GFC of 2007-08.

Chuck again… yes the GFC… Great Financial Collapse… Remember that one? The Housing Market Bubble that I first warned people about in my White Paper titled: The Year of the Euro, in 2003, popped and left no prisoners behind. 

Ok..  Well, I hesitated to talk about this but then I thought, what the heck! We all know that this is happening around us… This is from Michael Snyder for Lew Rockwell.com “The ominous trends that we see all around us are taking us somewhere.  Needless to say, 2023 was not a good year for our country.  Hunger and homelessness have been absolutely exploding, the suicide rate just continues to go even higher, and there is chaos in the streets on an almost nightly basis.  It is in this environment that the election of 2024 will happen.  I expect election season to add an additional level of strain to our society, and I don’t think that our society will be able to handle it.  We are headed for a nightmare, and at this point everyone should be able to see that.”

Chuck again…  I know, not too uplifting, but stuff that has to be talked about… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims…. I’m sure the numbers will be skewed because of the holiday shortened week we had last week.  There’s really not much going on here in the Data Cupboard today or tomorrow… And tomorrow the Bond Market closes early… So, the bond boys have that going for them! 

To recap… The dollar continues to get sold, on a daily basis… Yesterday it was 4 index worth of losses in the BBDXY, and overnight it got sold some more! Gold is reclaiming its role as the preservation of wealth… Chuck says to put in your logbooks when Gold breaks its all-time high, which could be today, so you can look back and say that you know when that happened! Worldwide banks are axing employees… Not a good time to be a banker… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… this article talks about how the dollar has already run into the BRICS iceberg… And I think that at this time, when the dollar seems to be teetering… It’s a good article to read… And you can read it all here:Has the U.S. Dollar Already Struck the BRICS Iceberg? – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: ” As of this writing, US dollar reserves have fallen by 6.5% as foreign central banks cut ties with the currency. The BRICS countries, especially those in the global South, are leading the charge to depart from the decades-long dominance of the American currency. China and Japan’s central bank shares show the most significant rise in central banks. Interestingly, the Euro is just slightly behind in losing a share in the world currency market.

If BRICS stops using the USD, there will likely be a financial disaster in the United States, with hyperinflation wreaking havoc across all sectors in the US. However, losing the dollar as the medium of exchange worldwide is not the most significant danger for the American hegemony. Collaboration and stronger ties between the BRICS and emerging nations are essential. Xn Iraki, an associate professor in the Faculty of Business and Management Sciences of the University of Nairobi, offered this via China Daily:

“BRICS is at a watershed in terms of global economic organisations, with less-developed countries now having access to technology from more advanced ones and having an opportunity to diversify their exports and gain access to new sources of funding.”

The BRICS account for 37% of the world’s GDP, while the G7 only squeaked out 30%. With the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran joining the group, oil production on Earth will be firmly in the hands of BRICS members. US government data shows BRICS’ share of global oil production blossoming from 19% to 41% after the recent expansion.

The US dollar, which is increasingly weaponized through economic sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and many other countries, will take the biggest hit if a BRICS counter currency situation arises. In America, increasingly burdensome debt and deficit spending on wars and programs that do not directly benefit the nation’s people will cause major internal problems.”

Chuck again…  first of all, I meant to write about how the dollar’s share of world trade had slipped again, but forgot, so I’m glad it was revisited here this morning…  2ndly… There are 40 or more countries that are asking to join the BRICS… This is going to become an us VS the world thing, I’m afraid… 

Market Price 12/28/2023: American Style: A$.6837, kiwi .6328, C$ .7560, euro 1.1116, sterling 1.2772, Swiss $1.1954, European Style: rand 18.5509, krone 10.1315, SEK 9.9297, forint 344.53, zloty 3.9010, koruna 22.2227, RUB 90.16, yen 140.80, sing 1.3178, HKD 7.8166, INR 83.17, China 7.1017, peso 16.89, BRL 4.8450, BBDXY 1,208.59, Dollar Index 100.79, Oil $73.06, 10-year 3.81%, Silver $24.31, Platinum $1,000.00, Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $3.96, and Gold… $2,075.69

That’s it for today, this week, and this year! Another year in the books! I’ve now been writing this letter for 30 years! That’s amazing to me, and I’m still surprised to find out someone from years past, still reads it! At a party I attended a couple of weeks ago, I ran into the University of St. Louis Economics Professor that used to come to our office and give us some views on current economics… She told me that she still reads the Pfennig each day… I was flabbergasted to say the least! But very proud of the fact that she still finds it to be worthy of reading! Well, tomorrow night is the Big Cotton Bowl Game, featuring my beloved Mizzou Tigers VS The Ohio State Buckeyes… A HUGE Game for Mizzou, and one I hope everyone comes to play in…  Fight Tigers fight for Ol’ Mizzou!  Well, the next time I talk to you it will be 2024, so I sure hope that if you go out to celebrate the NYE, that you do so carefully… My dad used to call NYE “amateurs’ night”… Ambrosia takes us to the finish line for the last time in 2023 with their song: I Keep Holding On To Yesterday…  Hey! that’s a pretty appropriate song for the last day (for me )!   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and fun-filled NYE… be careful out there!  And don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies have gained VS the dollar while Chuck was gone!
• Gold continues to climb higher, while Silver lags…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Whew! I’m worn out from all the hub-bub of the holiday weekend, and a birthday to boot! I hope everyone had a very Blessed Christmas, and you were able to share the warmth of love with family and friends… I know, I did!  It was not a White Christmas here in the MidWest, as we had abnormal weather, albeit rainy, but not as cold… Over the weekend, Our Blues beat the Blackhawks, which is always a highlight of the hockey season… I reached out to a former H.S. classmate last week, and she responded to me, and we have renewed out acquaintance, I told her that “life is too short to forget friends”… There was lots of movement in the dollar and Gold last week, so we have lots to talk about today, and I might as well get started on it, eh?  Tim Janis plays his version of the song: Silent Night to greet me this morning… 

The trading last week was not of the volumes we normally see, since it was the week before Christmas, and so each day that went by, there was some story as to why the markets did what they did… I won’t bore you with each day’s chatter, but I will say that at the end of the week, the BBDXY has lost 7 index points, that put the index at 1,219 to end the week. That’s the lowest it’s been since the last week of this past July… It was then that I had said that it appeared that the dollar had exhausted its gains, and was ready for a long-term weak trend, only to have the PPT prove me wrong, once again… The PPT has a bad habit of doing that, in my opinion, for why can’t assets trade on their own merits without intervention? 

Gold has inched higher daily in the past week, and at the end of the week it was $2,052, which was $26 higher than it was on 12/18, the last day I wrote to you (other than the Christmas Pfennig) Now that was a great Santa Claus rally for Gold, eh? Silver has lagged but still ended the week at $24.18, which was 22-cents higher than when I left you on 12/18… There have been several articles written in the past 10 days, about the Industrial demand for physical Silver, and how that should increase the shortage of Silver, and how that should drive the price of Silver much higher… have these writers not noticed that supply and demand doesn’t dictate price in Silver any longer, instead its ruled by the short paper traders?  Oh well… it’s a good story to tell, about the shortage, and maybe we can get some buying out of it, but who knows? 

The price of Oil has really moved higher on the news that the Red Sea is being shut down to shipping, and that ships are having to go all the way around the Cape of Horn (Africa) to get to their destination, which incurs more shipping costs, and a higher price of Oil… Oil ended the week with a $74 handle… And the bond boys are still holding on to their thought that the Fed Heads will cut rates as soon as March 2024, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury remains below 4%… 

In yesterday’s trading, we saw a little more volume, but not much more… The dollar got sold once again, with the BBDXY showing a loss of 4 index points, and Gold gained $14.90 on the day to close at $2,067.50. Silver gained 5-cents on the day to close at $24.23… There was not a lot of activity in the markets yesterday, but more than there was last week… I would think that things might be muted through this week, with most of the senior traders still on the slopes or sipping pina coladas on the beach.  That kind of volume can lead to wild swings though… And through the years, I’ve seen some real wild ones this last week of the year, so be prepared…. 

On a side bar… Have you ever wondered why they word the sign ” Be Prepared To Stop”… that way?   I mean when you’re driving shouldn’t you always be prepared to stop?  These are the things in life that bug me… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold a little more and has dropped another index point in the BBDXY, while Gold inches higher by $2 in the early trading, and Silver gets old by 13-cents to start the day today… The price of Oil trades with a $75 handle this morning, while the 10-year’s yield is 3.86%… Those bond boys just are like a big ship that’s difficult to change directions quickly… 

With the price of Oil perking higher these days, the Petrol Currencies are frolicking in the sun… That is most of the Petrol Currencies, as the Russian ruble isn’t participating at this time… But the Mexican peso is at a level it hasn’t seen in a year of Sundays! Yes, it’s been that long!  The Brazilian real is rallying as is the Norwegian krone, so the rise in the price of Oil isn’t being ignored by most of the Petrol Currencies! 

Last week, I had a conversation with a guy who questioned my stating that the high U.S. debt was becoming unsustainable… (See? I still talk about this stuff when on vacation!)  He said that he saw no reason why the U.S. couldn’t just add as much debt as they wanted to…  I then went all ape on him and described what I’ve described for you dear readers for years, but will do so again… Having excessive Gov’t dept reduces economic activity by crowding out private capital formation and by requiring future tax increases or spending cuts to accommodate future interest payments. And those tax increases take away from consumer spending, which drives the car of GDP… AND furthermore, now that interest rates are higher, the debt is issued with higher yields, which means the servicing costs of those debts increases, and causes other items that the Gov’t deficit spends on, to go away, for they have to service the bond costs, and not their jackass spending programs…. 

And having the Gov’t overspend all the time, leads to consumers thinking that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, and they overspend too… This was the headline on a story on CNBC.com this past weekend, “Couple has $520,000 in debt—and wife had no idea: ‘We’ve been living a life maybe we shouldn’t be living’   

t’s not uncommon for people to keep financial secrets from their partners. Nearly 1 in 4 Americans in relationships admit to keeping a money-related secret from their significant other, according to a 2023 Bankrate survey.

A $520,000 secret is a pretty big one, though.”

Chuck again… I would have to agree with the writer on that one…  But see, that’s just one example of overspending, and then realizing that you have overspent to the tune of over $500,000 or whatever amount! 

Changing gears… I found this on Wolf Street.com  “But overall and “core” PCE price indexes decelerated, on plunging gasoline prices, a dip in food prices, and a continued big drop in durable goods prices.

The fly in the ointment in today’s PCE Price Index by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was rent inflation, which accelerated in November from October, and has gotten stuck since March for the ninth month in a row with month-to-month increases that annualized were in the 6%-plus range.”

Ok, so from all that I read, the young folks are finding that owning a home is out of the question, because of 1. the house is too expensive, 2. the cost of a mortgage is preposterous, and 3. they probably have student debts up to their eyeballs, and their balance sheet is a mess…. So… they HAVE to rent… And from the looks of it rent inflation is not coming down… And it’s the same in prices of lots of things… food, health insurance, medicines, new cars, etc. the prices won’t be coming down any time soon… They have risen and will remain at those lofty levels for some time, because…. inflation is sticky… And once prices rise, they rarely come back down…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is very lacking… The only piece of data that is worth its weight is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which will be printed tomorrow… I think what we’ll see most of this week, the last trading week of the year, is book squaring trades, and last-minute tax situation trades… 

To recap… It was a weak trading, volume-wise, week leading up to Christmas, but through it all the dollar lost ground, and Gold moved significantly higher… If any thing, the short paper traders have been just topping off Gold & Silver’s daily rises… There are lost of things for Chuck to talk about today, so if you skipped again, be sure to go back and read them! He didn’t write them for his health, you know! 

For What It’s worth… In keeping with the thought that consumers overspend, I have this article for you this morning, that talks about how consumers are spent!  And it can be found here:America’s Debt Crisis: People Are Maxed Out – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: “Americans are largely maxed out when it comes to the amount of debt they have accumulated. Americans had surpassed a combined total of over $1 trillion in credit card debt back in August. Three months later, the balance had already gone up an additional $48 billion.

The August data came from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Household Debt and Credit Report for the second quarter of 2023 and it continues to worsen as Americans struggle under the weight of an oppressive ruling class and central bankers. According to CNET, what’s more alarming is that the cost of carrying this debt has also increased. Credit card APRs have gone up 30% in the last year and a half, eating away at consumers’ budgets more than ever before.

Credit card debt is just one type of debt we face in our lifetimes, along with mortgages, car loans, student loans, and medical debt. But the credit card is uniquely powerful. It’s comparatively easy to obtain. It’s aggressively marketed. It also heavily influences your credit score, the financial reputation marker that determines if and how you fund future milestone purchases.

Credit can be a lifeline for many in hard times, but it can also be quietly destructive. As the pace of inflation surpasses wage growth, it’s gotten harder to afford rent, utilities and groceries, forcing us to rely more on credit cards for everyday goods. –CNET

Americans Falling Behind on Credit Card and Loan Payments as Inflation Persists

People are being pushed to the brink of financial ruin as the ruling class continues to print more fiat currency to fund wars on the other side of the globe. All this is happening as consumerism and consumption rates rise in the United States.”

Chuck again… I agree with all of that, and have seen what this has done to some families… Please don’t let it happen to you! 

Market Prices 12/27/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6838, kiwi .6329, C$ .7574, euro 1.1082, sterling 1.2739, 

Swiss $1.1727, European Style: rand 18.5024, krone 10.1440, SEK 10.0014, forint 344.94, zloty 3.9193. 

koruna 22.2962, RUB 91.85, Yen 142.60, sing 1.3220, HKD 7.8094, INR 83.35, China 7.1474, peso 16.94, 

BRL 4.8169, BBDXY 1,214.67, Dollar Index 101.37, Oil $75.20, 10-year 3.86%, Silver $24.10, Platinum $976.00, Palladium $1,192, Copper $3.91, and Gold…. $2,069.11

That’s it for today… Yesterday was Kathy’s birthday… I think she had a grand day… I sang Happy Birthday to her, which I don’t think she enjoyed… But oh well… I tried!  Now, no mentions to Kathy that I talked about her this morning!  That means you Lisa and Lynn!  it’s time to tear down all the decorations we had put up in the house and outside the house… I do not like that whole process, for I love seeing out house all decorated…  I used to be a stickler about leaving the lights on the house until the Epiphany, Jan 6… but now I’m no longer here on that day, so they have to be taken down before… UGH!  I have Catholic training in me, from my days of youth, and I retain some of the stories, like the Epiphany… Somebody different is playing this morning, his name is Rick Gallagher and he’s playing his version of: Having A Wonderful Christmas Time as he takes us to the finish line today… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

T’was the Night Before Christmas

and all through my house

no longer were hammers hammering

And me and my spouse

sat down to count our blessings…

I’m older now, and wishing that Christmas

will always hold dear in my heart…

And so now with this message, I’ll start…

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

It’s the hap-happiest time of all…

But there are dark clouds outside

And Chuck’s fears for us

He sure hopes he wrong with his call…

The song, My Favorite Things, is playing

and I think I’ll go through some of those right now

Family, friends, baseball, Gold, 

and music of all kinds, just not rap…

Days at my grill, and some cold beer on tap…

And I can’t forget my dear readers… 

They are the best!

What Will be your gift at Christmas? 

I’m hoping for peace, love of family, 

and good health, (for once!) 

less doctor visits, and more time spent

with my family and friends. 

I know that’s a lot to ask for

And I try not to get upset

when nothing is under my tree

now, don’t get all wet…

in the eyes, 

Let there be happiness, and joy

for all the girls and boys! 

Each year when I play Santa

I give out the gifts

that I think each recipient deserves

Now, don’t start a rift!

To my beautiful bride

I give my ever lasting love

To my darling daughter

I give my gift of laughter

To my strapping son

I give a strong back, 

and a water polo championship won!

To my youngest son

I give my gift of experience 

to get through life… 

To my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace

I give her my support to all her hopes and dreams…

To my grandsons, Braden And Everett

I give a day with “the General”  to help them grow up. 

And to my little Evie… 4 years old

I hope I never have to get mad at or even scold! 

The debts of the country are out of control

And Chuck has warned everyone for decades 

that his warnings began to sound old… 

I reach in my bag and I find no more gifts

But I still have my friends, and dear readers

to give them something… What could it be?

I guess you’ll have to come back next year

to find out what I came up with… 

I have one final wish and it’s for one and all…

And that is: may you know the warmth of love, 

and wrap it all around you, this Christmas… 

So, I heard him exclaim as he drove out of sight

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night! 

• Currencies rally on Thursday, get sold on Friday…
• Market sentiment changes toward Japanese yen…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my annual winter vacation begins tomorrow, and I can already feel how nice it will be to sleep-in in the morning! The Big Butler House Gala went off without a hitch, and I thoroughly enjoyed myself, and I think everyone else did too! Well, our Billikens won their basketball game this weekend, while my beloved Mizzou Tigers didn’t! UGH!  Nasty weather we’ve had here with the temps not that cold, but made to feel colder with the rain… The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of: It’s The Most Wonderful Time of The Year! 

The end of the week, last week, was two days of canceling each other out… First, Thursday saw the dollar get sold and the BBDXY lose 5 index points! Gold gained $9 on the day, and Silver gained 37-cents… It was one of those days when you thought, “The dollar was headed down stream”… But then long came Friday, and all was reversed… The BBDXY gained back the 5 index points it lost Thursday, Gold lost $16.30 to close the week $ 2,037.20, and Silver lost 27-cents to close the week at $23.87…  

So, we closed the week on Friday with the dollar being bought, but if we had closed the week on Thursday, it would have closed with the dollar being sold… It’s all semantics… it depends on which one you focus on… The price of Oil rose to as high as $76 late last week, but has slipped back since… And the 10-year’s yield fell further to end the week. 

In the overnight markets… The dollar drifted, without any conviction to buy or sell the dollar, and so the currencies all look about the same as they did to end the week.  The one currency that is on the rally tracks, and I can’t believe I just typed that! is the Japanese yen … Yes the yen is now in a favorable light with traders, and investors… And it all stems back form the note I told you about a couple of weeks ago, that the Bank of Japan has signaled that they would be moving their interest rates out of negative territory… 

With the Bank of Japan being the last Central Bank to still hold negative interest rates, this will be a BIG step for them… The BOJ already took their yield curve control off their Gov’t Bonds… So, for the first time in ages, Japanese Bonds are being bought, yen is being bought, and it all looks so strange to me!  I bet there are some traders out there that have never seen Japanese bonds with yield! Youngsters… 

Ok, Gold is up $5 in the early trading today, and Silver is up 10-cents… The price of Oil remained with a $72 handle overnight, and the 10-year’ yield trades at 3.90% this morning, to start the week.. .

You see, the sentiment has all changed here in the U.S. and I’ve talked about it before, but here goes again!  Everyone and their brother now thinks the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is going to cut rates as soon as March 2024, and come back and cut them 2 more times throughout the year. I’m not on board with that thought, but that’s neither here nor there, for the markets control the direction of everything (well when intervention is in play) … 

So, you can see why the Japanese yen is so darling in the eyes of traders, investors these days… The Bank of Japan would be hiking rates, while the rest of the world begins their rate cut cycles… 

Whew! That wears me out talking about rate cuts, etc. I said above that I’m not on board with the thought that the first rate cut will come in March… So, there! I said it… write it down, whatever, just so you can throw it back in my face in March!  HA! 

Well, former U.S. State Dept. employee, Thomas Hill, recently went on a rampage about how the U.S. should be concerned about the BRICS and their dedollarization plans… He contends that with the core BRICS members, they have 90 countries aligned with them through trade and other agreements and these 90 countries could be swayed to sell their dollars too…  I’m all on board with this thought folks… The BRICS are a major thorn in the side of the dollar bugs, and while their plans to rid the world of dollars may not be imminent, it is out there for everyone to see, and make plans accordingly, or don’t, and ignore them… 

And this fun little comment cam across from Foxbusiness.com “You’ve probably read about the fact that we’re selling 1-ounce gold bars,” Richard Galanti, the chief financial officer of the wholesale retailer, said Thursday evening. “We sold over $100 million of gold during the quarter.”

Chuck again, WOW! Buying physical Gold from Costco!   If that doesn’t beat the band! Well, as long as individuals are buying their physical Gold somewhere! 

Speaking of Gold… Remember a week or so ago, when I told you that in the overnight markets, Gold had soared to $2,176? But then it was sold back by the short paper traders?  Well, the good folks at GATA sent me this little note and I’m sharing it with you… “London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program that last Sunday night’s explosion in the gold price was probably an Eastern based “warning shot” against the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, prompting emergency intervention against gold by the U.S. “plunge protection team” to deflect the attack.”

I have no doubt in my country boy mind, that Gold will return to that level once again, and it won’t be a long wait to to see it happen! But then, that’s just me, thinking out loud… 

Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their rates unchanged last week, as I suspected they would. These two central banks also followed the U.S. in aggressively hiking their rates, and now they need to sit back and see what needs to be done next, while the rate cuts move through their respective economies.  There was some hope from me that the ECB would have one more hike in their system… But that didn’t come to fruition, and so we move along now, for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

And as always, Bill Bonner had some thoughts on the announcement that the Pentagon will receive $25 Billion in the latest budget works… Here’s Bill: ” No one worries about fiscal deficits in the US. Already, the federal deficit is headed for $2 trillion for 2024. Do the newspapers shout the alarm? Do the influencers – from the pulpits and podcasts – warn Americans that they had better change course? Do the politicians panic…and rev up the chainsaws?  

Nah. They give more money to the gun-makers. ResponsibleStatecraft.org:

It’s that time of year, and despite all the budgetary drama unfolding on Capitol Hill, lawmakers have already finished most of their holiday shopping for their favorite children: Pentagon contractors.

Through cryptic “program increases” to the defense budget appropriations for fiscal year 2024, most with no listed author and little to no justification, Congress has added more than $25 billion to the Pentagon’s procurement and research accounts for fiscal year 2024.” – Bill Bonner from www.bonnerprivateresearch.com 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had Nov. Retail Sales.. .Remember when I said that for the first time the BHI could be wrong, when it was forecast that Retail Sales would be negative? Well fear no further, the BHI is still THE indicator of what Retail Sales will do, as the Nov. print saw a .3% gain… It is Christmas shopping season! But that wasn’t the end of the stronger economic news, as Industrial Production moved from a negative position in Rocktober to a .2% gain in Nov.  But then to bring down all this euphoria over the data, the Empire State Manufacturing index printed negative -14.5 for this month… There always sees to be a fly in the ointment, eh? 

This weeks’ Data Cupboard has a lot of housing data to start the week, and it won’t be until Friday this week that we see a piece of real economic data, when Nov. Durable Goods Orders print… the week before Christmas is not the time to be revealing data prints… at least that’s how I view it… 

For What It’s Worth…  well… the list for FWIW worthy articles was long this morning, but I think I found one that hit a nerve with investors, for it’s what I’ve been warning people about for years now… The implementation of digital currencies, and it can be found here: Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): The Weaponization of Money? WHO’s Health Tyranny: Towards a Totalitarian World Government? No Way! – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization

Or, here’s your snippet: “Two kinds of absolute controls are being prepared to implement The Great Reset, alias UN Agenda 2030. A potentially straitjacket and total control by programmable Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and an all-oppressive health tyranny by WHO, overriding national Constitutional rights and national sovereignty as far as health measures are concerned.

The former will be “managed”, coordinated and supervised for faultless implementation, by the so-called Central Bank of Central Banks, the Bank for International Settlement (BIS); the latter by the 1948 Rockefeller-created, falsely called UN-agency WHO. The emerging tyrant’s budget is to 80% pharma, Gates and otherwise privately funded. Both are criminal organizations.

These are plans, not yet implemented. But the world better be aware, so We, the People, may stop this terrifying assault on humanity in its tracks.

CBDC may be upon us, humanity, rather sooner than later. Programmable CBDC is a weapon of mass destruction. The weapon has been in the planning for decades – and it fits right into the Bigger Picture of the Great Reset / Agenda 2030.

Programmable – means the money can be programmed on how it is to be spent by an individual, or blocked, or made to expire, or made to be used for certain goods or services – or it can be totally withheld, wiped out, depending on how well you behave, according to the standards of the all-commandeering death cult elite.

CBDC is a master control element, a stranglehold on the population.

Simultaneously, an all-controlling health tyranny is being prepared by WHO. The plan is that the new totalitarian rules – Biden Administration initiated revised International Health Regulations (IHR), including a new Pandemic Treaty – are to be ratified by the World Health Assembly, presumably by the end of May 2023. If approved, by a two-thirds majority, the new rules will become effective in 2024.”

Chuck again…  You should have seen the faces of the guys that I sat around the pool with over 2 years ago, when I told them about how their folding cash would one-day disappear, and digits would replace them in their bank accounts… it’s all coming back to me now said the blind man has he spit into the wind! 

Market Prices 12/18/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6726, kiwi .6232, C$ .7483, euro 1.0913, sterling 1.2655, Swiss $1.1534, European Style: rand 18.4450, krone 10.3067, SEK 10.2232, forint 352.71, zloty 3.9882, koruna 22.4870, RUB 90.67, yen 142.67, sing 1.3316, HKD 7.7999, INR 83.06, China 7.1350, peso 17.26, BRL 4.9380, BBDXY 1,226.96, Dollar Index 102.51, Oil $72.19, 10-year 3.90%, Silver $23.96, Platinum $954.00, Palladium $1,193.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2,023.12

That’s it for today, and for the next 9 days… Yesterday, was my former colleague, and longtime friend, Jen Mclain’s Birthday! And tomorrow is my former colleague, and longtime friend, Ty Keough’s Birthday!  Happy Birthday to you both! I get to see Ty, much more these days than I get to see Jen… And I only see Ty a few times a year! UGH!  Well, there are only 55 more days till pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training… See? I still have my priorities… I can’t wait to get down to S. Florida and see that the changes to Roget Dean Stadium look like…  The day after Christmas is Kathy’s Birthday… People always say to her when they hear when her birthday is, “you got cheated!”… I always make sure I have Christmas presents, and Birthday presents separated! I’ve been listening to the Stephen Kummer Trio, CD titled: Christmas In The City, and they are playing my fave Christmas song: The Christmas Waltz to take us to the finish line today… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and a very Blessed Christmas and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals soar higher on the dovish words of Chairman Powell…
• If Argentina can do it, why can’t we?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I was at lunch yesterday with my friends, when Rick said, “the Fed left rates unchanged, like you said they would, but they also said that they see 3 potential rate cuts in 2024”.. I immediately responded and said, “the stock jockeys love that news… But then so should Gold, and then went to check on my phone what Gold was doing, and it was up $28… with more trading time left in the day… So, that’s the gist of the letter today… 2 more writing days before my annual winter vacation… And that has me fired up this morning! Leif Shires and his band, play a cool jazz version of the song: Silver Bells, to greet me this morning. 

So, the Jobs Jamboree was quite the event yesterday… Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Powell, talked from both sides of his mouth, saying on one hand, “its not the time to cut rates, but we see a potential for 3 cuts in 2024”, and on the other hand, “we are data dependent, and if there are signs of inflation increasing, we would be prepared to hike rates further”…   Now, to me that’s a perfect example of a 2-handed economist… But the thing here that I think the markets missed, was that there’s still a chance that rates could go higher… The markets ignored that and went with the 3 potential rate cuts in 2024, and traders went hog wild with that thought… 

I also might remind everyone here that the Fed Heads have been known to disappoint the markets… I’m just saying… 

Gold closed the day up $47.70, to $2,028.20, and Silver closed the day up $1.02, to $23.88… The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and the BBDXY showed a loss of 12 index points on the day… That’s a HUGE move, folks… And there was no sign of the short paper traders nor of the PPT intervening to stop the dollar’s fall… So, this was what a day without intervention looked like!  And I loved it!  So, now Gold is back above $2,000, and hopefully, it can hold that level and add to it again… 

The price of Oil touched $70 yesterday, but failed to maintain it, and ended the day trading with a $69 handle… I would have thought that with all the dollar selling that we could see Oil react favorably, but it didn’t so, we’ll just move along, for these are not the droids we are looking for…  And if you think Gold & Silver’s rally yesterday was something to behold, they took second place to the buying in Bonds… The 10-year’s yield dropped to below 4%, at 3.97%… Maybe, just maybe, the bond boys were correct in thinking that in Rocktober was the time to buy bonds again… I have to admit, I didn’t see it that way… So there I admitted I was wrong about something!  Well, maybe, I’ll be proven wrong, as the jury is till out on whether this trading in bonds plays out… Somehow, I’m holding out hope that the bond boys will be proven to be wrong, and not me! 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar continued to get sold once the books were handed over to the Asian markets last night… The BBDXY lost another 5 index points, with the euro trading in the 109 handle, and the rest of the currencies are all looking healthier this morning. Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen is on the rally tracks this morning! I have to say this because it’s on my mind… At this point of the proceedings is where the PPT usually comes in and buys dollars to save it from further decline.  Maybe, just maybe, because you never know, until you do, the PPT is asleep at the wheel… 

Gold is up another $11 to start the day today and looks like it really wants to run a bit… Silver is up 28-cents to start the day, and it too appears to be ready to run to higher ground. The other metals i.e. Copper, Platinum and Palladium have all jumped higher in price too… Copper has been held back for some time now, even with the supply issues it faces, but appears to have broken away from the chains that held it back. The price of Oil has rallied a bit overnight and starts today with a $70 handle, and there must have been some profit taking in bonds, as the 10-year’s yield is back above 4% this morning at 4.13%… 

 I do believe that there was one other item that Chairman Powell, talked about yesterday, that was thrown to the curb by the markets, and that is, that the Fed Heads will continue with QT (quantitative tightening), which I explained while the Fed was hiking rates that they were getting double rate hikes for their money, as the QT was essentially a rate hike too… So, even if the Fed Heads are going to partake in rate cuts in 2024, they will be a net zero because of QT… Something to keep in mind, folks… 

Well, something that should be done in this country.. Cut deficit spending… is seeing it occur in Argentina… Yesterday, I told you about how the new Presidente, wanted to slash the deficit and he got to work right away, in his first 48 hours in office he:

 Cut the number of “under secretaries” from 182 to 140

Cut the number of secretaries [department chiefs] from 106 to 54

Cut the number of ministries from 18 to 9…

He’s also cut all superfluous ministerial expenses (staff cell phones, drivers, travel accounts, etc.)

Currently, all people hired by the outgoing president (Alberto) across all divisions of the government are under review. The presidential spokesperson reiterated that “the national spending cuts have just begun.”

Not that I want to see anyone lose their job, but here In the U.S. we need to go about do the same kind of housecleaning, and probably on an even much larger scale! Besides how many U.S. Gov’t workers just show up to get their paychecks? They don’t really add anything to the process, and they just weigh down the economy? I don’t know the answer to that question, but I’m sure that the numbers of these people are HUGH! 

And the Good folks at GATA sent me this note: “With inflation, debt, and financial instability continuing to make headlines, a new national scorecard exposes Vermont, New Jersey, Maine, and Minnesota as America’s absolute worst states for sound money, while Wyoming, South Dakota, Alaska, and New Hampshire came out on top in the rankings.

Money Metals Exchange, the top-rated precious metals dealer and depository in the United States, has partnered with the Sound Money Defense League to create the 2024 Sound Money Index, ranking all 50 states based on their policies in this increasingly important public policy area.

The index’s scoring system evaluates state laws such as sales and income tax policies concerning precious metals, whether a state affirms the role o f gold and silver under the U.S. Constitution, the existence of gold or silver in state pension funds or reserves, the existence of regulations that harm or otherwise punish precious metal dealers and investors, and other relevant issues.

Notable changes on the 2024 Sound Money Index since last year include Arkansas’ meteoric ascent from 30th to 5th place as well as Mississippi’s leap from 43rd to 16th place. …”

Chuck again…  yes, as we go along, we’ll see more states adopt no taxation on metals, and when that happens, I do believe we’ll see more individual investors finally make the plunge into Gold & Silver…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Jobs Jamboree and brother, wasn’t that enough? The Cupboard today has the November Retail Sales.. .And here’s where I think for once the BHI won’t give us a good indication of what the Retail Sales report prints… That’s because, the forecast for November Sales is for a negative -.1%, while the BHI indicates to me that there have been many packages arrive at our door in November…  So, I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, but not have to wait too long, as the report will print this morning! 

To recap… The markets went bananas yesterday on some words used by Chairman Powell… The markets heard that there could be potential for 3 rate cuts in 2024… They chose not to listen to him also say that if the data directs the economy to inflate again, they could also hike rates in 2024… But whatever! Gold gained $47 on the day, and Silver added $1.02… And the dollar got sold Big Time… While bonds got bought, and are proving the bond boys correct when they said that it was time to buy bonds back 2 months ago… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me via longtime reader, Bob… And it’s about how China is gaining in the usage of the renminbi as a world currency, and it can be found here: Yuan’s rising global role is opportunity to hasten reforms – Asia Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “Amid considerable doom and gloom in China’s economy, President Xi Jinping has at least one 2023 milestone to celebrate: a near-doubling of the yuan’s role in global payments.

The yuan’s 3.6% share might not sound too impressive considering the US still commands 47% of payments. But the rate of increase from 1.9% over the last 11 months since January is sure to catch Washington’s attention.

The key now, of course, is for Xi’s team to lean into the trend by accelerating financial reform efforts. Hastening it depends on Xi’s ability to earn investors’ trust.

Developed economies have something in common: They build credible and trusted financial systems before trillions of dollars of overseas capital arrive. They methodically increase transparency, prod companies to strengthen governance, devise reliable surveillance mechanisms, develop an independent credit-rating system and erect a robust market infrastructure before the world shows up.

As 2024 approaches, investors will be paying closer attention than ever to whether Xi’s reformers can keep up with the yuan’s rise.

This week, China’s Central Economic Work Conference convened in Beijing to plot the next steps for Asia’s biggest economy. Xi’s Communist Party vowed to boost domestic demand, tackle the real-estate crisis and accelerate the development of strategic sectors to raise China’s competitive game.”

Chuck again… yes, it takes a very long time to recover from 2-years of Covid shutdowns… But it appears now that China is back in the game, and the increase in the usage of their currency in world trade, is a very good sign that the renminbi could get on the rally tracks… 

Market Prices 12/14/2023: American Style: A$ .6717, kiwi .6214, C$ .7444, euro 1.0932, sterling 1.2721, Swiss $1.1530, European Style: rand 18.5199, krone 10.5199, SEK 10.5608, forint 348.97, zloty 3.9422, koruna 22.3304, RUB 89.63, yen 141.77, sing 1.3293, HKD 7.8083, INR 83.32, China 7.1313. peso 17.28, BRL 4.8798, BBDXY 1,226.97, Dollar Index 102.33, Oil $70.95, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $24.16, Platinum $943.00, Palladium $1,019.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2,039.12

That’s it for today… Saturday is the big gala at the Butler House, so I had better make myself scarce these next two days!  I am having lunch today with my High School classmates, some of them that is, and tonight is the annual party I attend that has a ton of my former colleagues in attendance…  Tomorrow is my younger sister’s birthday, so Happy Birthday, Terri, I hope you day is grand!  I am the oldest one left in the family, and all my siblings that are alive are all much younger than I…  Shoot my youngest brother was born when I was in High School! Talk about a strange time for me and my development as a young adult!  Both the Billikens and Mizzou Basketball teams play this weekend, and this is the time of year when the NFL plays some games on Saturday too! Ramsey Lewis Trio takes us to the Finish Line today with his snappy version of the song: We Three Kings…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow!  And please… .Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get sold on Monday, but rally overnight…
• The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel meet this week…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  A double header of NFL games on Monday Night last night… talk about spreading your audience!  I wanted to watch the Dolphins game, but instead, while I had it on the TV, I read a book instead… And looked up every now and then…  Well, I’m a week away from my annual winter vacation… This Friday, we will host an engagement party for our son, Alex, and his fiancé Grace… It will be like one of the old Butler Christmas Parties! I gave up years ago, trying to convince Kathy that we needed to have a Christmas Party… You tend to choose the battles you want to fight, eh? There will be a good time had by all, I’m sure!  Vince Guaraldi trio greets me this morning with a theme song from the Charlie Brown Christmas: Christmas Is Coming…  

Yes, it is, and pretty soon, it’ll be here, are you ready? I think I’ve gotten everything I ordered for gifts… So, I’m good… I wonder how many Christmases will be financed with credit cards this year?  There’s something to use a credit card and pay it off each month… But running up debts with outlandish interest rates attached seems to me to be A-line ticket (remember those?) for disaster, in a home’s finances…   Oh, well, time to get into the letter’s gist today, I’ve beaten around the bush enough… 

The dollar weakened as the day went through its paces yesterday, but still maintained a gain in the BBDXY of 2 index points… The currencies didn’t really move much yesterday, so it appears they are in the same clothes this morning as they were yesterday morning….  Gold still can’t find a bid, as the price manipulators keep the pressure on the metals… Gold was down $23.10 yesterday to close the day at $1,982.40, and Silver was down 16-cents to close at $22.91… Buying opportunities galore here folks, need I say more? 

I think this thought that has filtered through the markets since Friday, that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel isn’t looking to pivot any time soon has really laid a heavy weight on the metals… And then the price manipulators pile on…  We’ll get a glimpse of whether this new thought has legs are not this morning, when the STUPID CPI for Nov. prints… You, me, and the guy down the street that keeps his Christmas lights on his house all year, know that the BSL’s CPI print is about as worthless as plug nickel… But, convincing the markets of that is a tough row to hoe…   I’m just saying

In the overnight markets last night… Well, we had begun to see the dollar get sold yesterday, as I just said, but in the overnight markets, the dollar really got sold!  The BBDXY is down 4 index points this morning, and the euro has climbed back to 1.08 to start our day. So, what’s got into the dollar bugs that they are feeling like they need to sell dollars? Ahhh… grasshopper, come, sit, and listen to a tale that’s been said many times before, but no one seems to listen to it…  Could it be that the dollar bugs finally came to the realization that the Fed Heads are NOT going to cut interest rates, and with all the opposites trading going on these days, who knows?  

Gold is up $5 to start the day today, and Silver is flat to up a penny… So far, no sign of the short paper traders in the overnight markets, so maybe their assault on the metals is over, for now.? … 

And the bond boys thinking that the Fed Heads mantra that they will keep rates “higher, longer” lasted one day… Last Friday we saw the 10-year’s yield rise to 4.27%, and that’s what it appeared to be, that the bond boys had finally come around to Chuck’s way of the thinking, but that lasted just one day, because the 10-year’s yield dropped back yesterday to 4.19%… I shake my head and say, that’s just so wrong!   Oh well it is what it is… 

The price of Oil slipped below $71 at $70.95 overnight, and a there’s some talk going around that there’s a glut of Oil…. I say that’s hogwash, and I hope that talk gets squashed soon! 

Well, the Social Security Administration issued their wage statistics for the year 2022 (last year), and their findings were scary… here’s the skinny: “The Social Security Administration just released national wage statistics for 2022, and the figures that they have given us do not paint a pretty picture at all. In particular, we should all be deeply alarmed that the median wage earner brought home just $40,847.18 last year. That computes to just $3,400 a month…  I don’t see how that works in today’s numbers… 

Especially when the Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Explodes to $3,322 in the latest report that was chronicled in the Wall Street Journal…  That leaves just $78 for the average homeowner to play with after their monthly wage and mortgage payment.  I know, I know, that doesn’t account for a double income family, or a two jobs earner in the family…  Just having some fun with numbers here to show how dire it could be in America these days… 

But there’s nothing that these poor people can do about it, for they didn’t have any say in the Gov’t’s excessive deficit spending, on pollywogs, and other stupid things,  except protest their situation in public…   And I do believe that we, as a country, are headed down that road, with protests that could turn violent, and even turn into a Civil War…  Got Gold? 

Ok, let’s talk about something more positive…  Oh, there’s nothing on the docket? Shucks! I really wanted to talk about something positive! There are two wars being fought right now, in which the U.S. has a large interest in who wins, interest rates on credit cards are through the roof, housing costs are skyrocketing, inflation is sticky, the U.S. is borrowing to pay the interest on their debt, and the national debt is nearing in on $39 Trillion, and the biggest thing that’s coming our way, is the end of cash, folding currency…   

Oh, and the next bubble to burst?  You and I will probably differ on this, and that’s ok.. See? that’s how things used to work, but not any longer… The one that’s in power gets to cancel the other one for his thoughts… Strange times we live in… So, getting back to something I’m seeing in the markets these days that reminds me of 1995, when the internet was opened to the world, it was supposed to be the Big Kahuna, for economic growth… Well… we’re still waiting for that growth, right?  And the other day I read that $40 Billion had been put into AI stocks this past year! And the same kind of buying that led to the Dot.com disaster, is being done again with AI…  Be careful out there folks, this all reminds me of the years leading up to 2000 all over again… I’m just saying… Got Gold? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was barren, but today’s cupboard has the aforementioned STUPID CPI… And the Monthly Budget deficit… And the markets will be watching the STUPID CPI like a hawk this morning, so we have that going for us, eh?  And looky there! The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will meet for the last time in 2023 tomorrow! No one out there in stock jockey land wants to take a bet on what the Fed Heads will do… But I could tell them that the Fed Heads won’t move interest rates, and Chairman Powell will do his best to tell the markets once again, that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is data dependent, and need more confirmation that we’re seeing disinflation…  The markets won’t like that kind of talk, and will most likely choose to ignore him, and go about as if he didn’t say anything at all! 

To recap… The selling of Gold & Silver continued on Monday, as Chuck explains the reasons why in the letter today… The U.S. Consumer finances are going through the gauntlet of problems these days, and Chuck points them out this morning… The overnight markets saw the initial selling of the dollar that we saw yesterday, add on during the overnight session with the BBDXY down 4 index points to start the day today… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, today’s feature is by Willem Middlekoop, who has been called the “Oracle of Amsterdam” and he’s here to talk about the return of Gold as a holding by Central Banks around the world, and it can be found here: Central banks and the revival of gold – OMFIF

Or, here is your snippet: “One of the most significant changes in the world of money has been happening by stealth rather than through any policy announcement. Gold has regained a solid yet unofficial role in the world’s monetary system in a barely noticed, gradual process that cannot now be overlooked.

This is the result of several interlinked reasons. The last few years have seen central banks run into gold, accelerated by declining trust in the dollar following western countries’ freezing of $300bn of Russian foreign exchange reserves after the Ukrainian invasion.

The sharp rise in interest rates since the end of 2021 has led to significant losses for worldwide bondholders. This applies not just to commercial banks and asset managers but also, crucially, to many internationally operating central banks that acquired large stocks of government bonds in successive rounds of quantitative easing. This has damaged the validity of government bonds as a core element of central banks’ reserves.

This has had a significant side effect. Gold-holding central banks in Europe seem likely to resort (either formally or informally) to using their gold revaluation accounts to plug balance sheet losses to be unveiled in coming years. They find this a more palatable option than the alternative – asking their governments to recapitalise them during a budget squeeze.

Recapitalization would undermine central banking independence by exposing the need for bail-out measures. However, the option they seem most likely to choose could have uncomfortable effects. By demonstrating the new-found monetary importance of gold, which has been slumbering unused in their reserves for decades, central banks could endanger confidence in the national currencies they issue and guarantee. They could provoke further moves out of fiduciary currencies and into gold by emerging market central banks seeking to emulate their more established European counterparts.”

Chuck again.. .As I keep saying over and over again… “Follow the money”… And if Central Banks around the world are buying physical Gold, then you should be doing the same…  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 12/12/2023: American Style: A$.6588, kiwi .6149, C$ .7368, euro 1.0801, sterling 1.2570, Swiss $1.1436, European Style: rand 18.9242, krone 10.8821, SEK 10.4368, forint 354.08, zloty 4.0130, koruna 22.6030, RUB 89.85, yen 145.10, sing 1.3401, HKD 7.8096, INR 83.38, China 7.1678, peso 17.32, BRL 4.9288, BBDXY 1,239.65, Dollar Index 103.74, Oil $70.95, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $22.97, Platinum $926.00, Palladium $983.00, Copper $3.75, and Gold… $1,987.67

That’s it for today… Yesterday’s visit to the PCP was OK… my mouth started bleeding while the nurse took my blood pressure… She was freaked out… I did get it to stop before the doctor walked in… He asked me this: “how do people like you, have the strength to take on all these problems?”  I answered: “an optimistic outlook, and the power of prayers”.. Of course, I could have added and “good medicine”…  He realizes what cancer patients go through, and he’s amazed at my smiling face!”  I should have told him that I smile because I own Gold, and I own most of it since 2004… I told all my friends then in 2004, that they too, should buy Gold…  I could hold it over their heads, the ones that didn’t listen, but I don’t… But they know…  It’s never too late to buy… I’m just saying!  Kenny G. takes us to the finish line this morning with his version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry Christmas…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today…. and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Friday, with interference.
• Eurozone inflation remains sticky…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I don’t know what’s wrong with our Blues, but they sure seem to discombobulated when they play… They’ve looked this way ever since they won the Stanley Cup a few years ago… UGH!  So, the Big News this past weekend was that the baseball icon, Shohei Ohtani signed for $700 Million with the Dodgers for 10 -years… Doing the math on that, it’s $70 million a year to play baseball… The rich just keep richer in Baseball… It’s tough to be a small market team like my beloved Cardinals and compete with the high rollers in NYC and LA…  UGH!  But, they will give it go, next summer!  Little Evie, and brother Braden stayed with us Saturday Night… It’s fun having a little one around the house at Christmas time…  Speaking of Christmas… the Ramsey Lewis Trio plays their version of the song: Santa Claus is Coming to Town this morning to greet me… 

Well, the dollar was “managed higher” on Friday, with the BBDXY rising 2 index points… It all smelled fishy, this rise in the dollar, and so it was confirmed that there was intervention…  UGH… Why can’t these dirty dogs just leave the markets to trade where traders and investors direct them to go?  Gold also saw a managed takedown once again, along with Silver… Gold was down $23.60 to close the week at $2,005.50, and Silver was down 82-cents, to close the week at $23.07… Man, do I detest having to start a letter/ week having to explain that the things we follow were manipulated downward the previous Friday!  But it is what it is… And I just don’t get it! 

Look, I’ve explained this before, but here goes again… in 1971, when Nixon took the dollar off the Gold backing, the dollar began immediately to drop, and with no end in sight to this drop, Senators and the Finance minister, got together and decided that they couldn’t allow this to go on, and at that time they hatched the plan to always diss Gold & Silver in favor of the dollar, to keep the dollar shining for all to see… Well, that’s all fine and dandy, but as time goes on, the deficit spending and debts have done their own damage to the dollar, and Gold has gone from around $265 to over $2,000, not without some intervention to keep it down, mind you, but still the cat is out of the bag as far as keeping the dollar shining for all to see… So, why do they keep trying to keep Gold & Silver down? It’s insane as far as I can see… And the definition of insanity is trying something over and over again, thinking that there will be a different outcome… I rest my case… 

Here’s Ed Steer’s comments about the intervention in the dollar, Gold & Silver last Friday… “Armed with a Goldilocks/”better-than-expected” jobs report — and a dollar index ‘rally’ that just reeked of massive intervention, yesterday’s engineered price declines in both silver and gold certainly didn’t come as a surprise, at least not to me.

But it wasn’t all smooth sailing for the commercial traders, as every time they loosened their downward grips on both, they were more than happy to rally sharply.

The same can be said of that equally managed dollar index ‘rally’…as it only followed the script when it was brutally forced to — and a bit of short covering later in the day did the rest.

And what was equally obvious, was that ‘da boyz’ were using the engineered decline in the gold price to slam silver…their No. 1 problem child.” 

Chuck again… As always, you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

Continuing on… The price of Oil rallied on Friday by $2 to close the week with a $71 handle… And bonds were a no-show in trading on Friday with little to no movement in the yields…  You can still get better than 5% in a 1-year T-Bill… So, the yield curve is till inverted…  ICYWTK…  (in case you wanted to know) 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought again… Hmmm… The overnight markets took the run in the dollar from Friday, and went along for the ride. The BBDXY has gained 3 index points overnight… Gold is down another $14 to star the day/ week this morning, and Silver is down 9-cents to start the day/ week. Gold is going to have to really hit the gym, and toil away, to get back on the rally tracks after last week… I see Gold having the Oomph to do the job, with all the demand for physical Gold in the works… I’m just saying…   

The price of Oil remained with a $71 handle overnight… And it now appears that the bond boys have finally given up the ghost on holding on to their mantra of “the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will cut rates soon”, and the 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.27%, from last week’s low of 4.17%… Now that is all settled, we can get back to normal trading in bonds, that see rates staying higher, longer, and not all that frenzied buying on the bond boys mantra!   

The jobs jamboree was responsible for all this movement in the asses Friday, so let’s go see what was going on there to start our day, eh?

Well… the Jobs Jamboree was interesting on Friday last week… The BLS said that 199,000 jobs were added in Nov. I would suspect that all the workers that were son strike were counted as being added…  The BLS didn’t even have to massage the numbers that much, only adding 4 jobs to the surveys…  So, here’s the skinny, on the whole jobs data…  The BLS said that the Unemployment Rates had dropped to 3.7%. and that got the markets all in a tizzy, that maybe, just maybe, they had been wrong about an early rate cut… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, had pointed out that they needed to cool the employment to bring down inflation, and so this report sure didn’t get them in the mood to cut rates…  

And that, my friends, is what was the initial cause for Gold to get sold on Friday… The dollar to rally, bonds get sold, and stocks… well, who the hell knows what drives them higher each day?  Regarding Gold & Silver, in the old days before the boys in the band learned they could short the metals without any Gov’t interference, and make lots of money, a report like Friday would have cause some slippage in the metals, but then the piling on by the short paper traders took place and then we had a major selloff… 

Well, how have you been taking care of your investment portfolio? I sure hope you have diversified it properly, and that you’ve set it, and forgot it, gone fishing, if you will…  Maybe added some additional Gold & Silver now that the short paper traders have generated another cheaper buying opportunity…  I read a piece this past weekend that talked about how this time we’re in right now is the “eye of the storm”…  And on the other side of this storm, we’ll see Gold rally to $3.000, and then on to $4,000…   OMG! Now wouldn’t that just be the cat’s pajamas if Gold rose to those levels? But C’Mon, get ahold of yourself… You and I both know that the Gov’t will not allow Gold to move to those levels, for that would mean the dollar is dirt, and Gold isn’t!  

But in reality, the dollar is dirt, folks…  Since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was formed in 1913, the dollar has lost 96% of its buying power…   with most of that loss taken in the years since 1971… And it’s only going to get worse for the green/peachback…  As a country, we are now borrowing to pay the interest on our bonds that are outstanding, and then borrowing more to reissue new bonds… It’s a real shame that it’s come to this… And it all could have been avoided if we had never taken the Gold backing from our dollar… Remember, Nixon told us it was only going to “temporary”… I guess he had a different dictionary that you and I, eh? 

The other thing that was all over the air waves this past weekend was how digital dollars will be here sooner than later… I know it’s been over 3 years since I first talked about digital dollars, and that was in May 2020… I told you then that one day you would wake up and find your dollars are now digits, and they will be spent on digital cards, period…. The Gov’t will then know everything about your personal spending habits, what you buy, what you spend money on, who you support, etc.  You know 1984 was supposed to be a “make believe” world… But more and more we cede our civil liberties to the Gov’t, and pretty soon 1984 will look like a walk in the park to what we are living in….  I sure hope I’m wrong about all that, but then I doubt that I will be….  Just saying… 

Turning to something else… because that talk about digits in my bank account gives me the Willies… It appears that the European Central Bank’s work in hiking rates is not finished, as inflation has come back stronger than expected int he Eurozone… And in a roundabout way, that’ll be good for the euro, because the ECB will have to maintain rates where they are presently, or raise them a bit more, while the U.S. sitting on their hands… If only the price manipulators would steer clear of supporting the dollar, and let the markets, traders, investors take it where they believe it belongs… The offset currency to the dollar is the euro, so keep that in mind… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last Friday, had the aforementioned Jobs report for Nov. from the snake oil salesmen at the BLS… In addition to their trumped up jobs report, they also said that Hourly Wages year on year were up .4%, which the boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. (The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel) won’t be getting a warm and fuzzy over that report… And they’ll be asking themselves just what did they need to do to get the labor market from growing like this, because it will only lead to more inflation…  And Consumer Credit (read debt) was interesting in Rocktober, as it dropped BIG TIME from Sept’s $12 Trillion to $5.2 Trillion…  Credit Card debt was down from the previous month, which is a good sign, but… there’s always a dark cloud isn’t there?  The U.S. economy depends on consumption by its citizens to support growth… So, there’s that problem, but who’s counting? 

To recap… Chuck is all up in arms today about the takedown last Friday in Gold & Silver… And the intervention in the dollar once again… Eurozone inflation is still hot, and that should keep rates at current levels or even higher, as we go along… Chuck talks about digital currencies once again.. repeating what he first told you in May of 2020… And he has a GATA report for us today in the FWIW… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA.org… And I do believe that you’ll be able to read the entire article if you wish. This is about someone “in the know” talking about how the metals prices are manipulated, and it can be found here: HansonEssay.pdf (gata.org)

Or, here’s your snippet:” “Manufactured prices of commodities devoid of fair price discovery cause misallocations of resources and penalize industry, employees, investors, and taxpayers. Furthermore, condoning obfuscation of gold as commodity activity can result in disruptions of supply chains, such as the ‘aluminum shuffle’ or ‘copper as bullion’ classification by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to permit banks to escape position limits.”

The result is to make it nearly impossible for the world to see what the U.S. government and its agents are doing to undermine a currency competing with the U.S. dollar.

Chuck again… this was written by James Hanson, who recently retired as a financial analyst for the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., has written an essay showing how U.S. regulators long have been striving to obscure the positions taken in gold derivatives by U.S. banks.

Market Prices 12/11/2023: American Style: A$ 6555, kiwi .6110, C$ .7365, euro 1.0756, sterling 1.2512, Swiss $1.1354, European Style: rand 19.0381, krone 10.9566, SEK 10.4944, forint 354.73, zloty 4.0261, koruna 22.6423 RUB 90.93, yen 146.35, sing 1.3437, HKD 7.8061, INR 83.39, China 7.1774, peso 17.41, BRL 4.9583, BBDXY 1,244.28, Dollar Index 104.13, Oil $71.24, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $22.96, Platinum $934.00, Palladium $986.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $1,991.40

That’s it for today… I go to see my primary care physician later this morning… He’s always amazed with the fact that I’m there, in person… I always tell him… I’m living proof of what an optimistic outlook, and tons of prayers will do for someone…  Well, that, and the fact that I’ve had great doctors, who stay on top of what’s going on in Cancer… In the beginning, it was key that I was able to get to M.D. Anderson in Houston… They set the bar for what to expect for me, and here I am!  Of course, I could keel over tomorrow, so I had better find some wood to knock on!  I fully expect to be here for some time still, so I have that going for me!  And I’ve got a bone to pick with the football… The tush-push, is NOT football, it’s Rugby! So, get it out of the game!  I’m listening to my fave smooth jazz Christmas CD this morning… Christmas in the City, by the Stephen Kummer Trio… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please, please, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets
• So, you’re telling me that there were states that didn’t grow in the 3rd QTR?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, Kathy & Chuck went to dinner last night with good friends, Diane and Gary.. We talked about many different things and by the time we left, the restaurant was dimming the lights! We went to an Italian restaurant, that I thought when hearing of our destination, that “eating soft pasta would be great for my mouth”… And so it was!  Yummy, if you’re keeping score at home!  The great pianist, Beggie Adams greets me this morning with her version of hte song: Frosty The Snowman… 

Well, the frost that formed over Gold on Tuesday this week, looks as though it has finally gone into melting stage… Silver still has some frost hanging around, but I sense that the short paper traders have taken their pound of flesh from Silver, and it’s now time for Silver to gather up the broken pieces and put them back together again…  Yesterday, Gold gained $6.30, to close at $2,026.10, and Silver lost 27-cents to fall below the $24 handle, at $23.97… I think the short paper traders got what they were looking for on Tuesday, and I’m happy for them, (NOT!) and hope they now decide to take their ball and bat and go home… 

The dollar is still being supported from the PPT’s intervention on Tuesday, and the dollar gained 2 index points yesterday to end the day at 1,244….  So, all the difficult work that the currencies had put in VS the dollar was wiped out by the intervention… I get it, the powers that be, can’t have the dollar getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, but… Do they have to do it so violently?  I’m just asking… 

The price of Oil continues to drop, and yesterday it lost $2 to end the day trading with a $69 handle… And the bond frenzy continues, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 4.12% yesterday… This is reaching an overbought area, in my opinion… And just like everything in life, something swings way our of control on one side, and int he correction, it swings way out of control on the other side… Never stopping in the middle …  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying stopped… What’s up? I thought… The BBDXY is down 3 index points this morning… Apparently the ADP Employment Report spooked the dollar bugs, a only 103,000 jobs were added in November. Gold is up $9 to start the day today, still picking up the pieces of its broken price from Tuesday, and Silver is flat to up 2-cents to start the day today… The selling of Oil appears to have stopped as witnessed by the uptick in the price to a $70 handle this morning…  And the bond frenzy is taking a pause for the cause and starts the day with a 4.17% yield… 

While writing down the currency prices today, I came across the Japanese yen, and noticed that it had booked a nice profit in the last 24 hours, and immediately went looking for a reason the yen with all its problems was on the rally tracks… Well, remember a week or so ago, when I told you about what the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Gov, had said about “when we return rates to normal”, and how he didn’t say “if we return rates to normal”, and suggested that, while it’s still somewhat unimaginable, that the BOJ might be hiking rates to get out of the negative rates policy… Well… here’s the skinny from Bloomberg.com : ” Traders are rapidly increasing bets that the Bank of Japan will scrap the world’s last negative interest-rate regime as soon as this month after the central bank’s leaders indicated they could be preparing a shift in policy.

The selloff, initially fueled by comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and one of his deputies, jolted financial markets in Tokyo and beyond, shattering a period of relative calm for Japan’s bonds.”

For those of you who missed class that day, or were fiddling with your smart phone,  I told you how this change in their interest rate policy could open a brand-new can of worms for the dollar… You see for decades now, all the Big Box buyers of bonds, have ignored and steered clear of the Japanese bonds… But if Japan would see their bond yields rise, it could signal buying from the Big Box buyers, and that could take away from dollar investments… See how I looped back and brought this all together for your reading enjoyment? HA!  

But seriously, this COULD be a real chink in the dollar’s armor… UH-OH… 

Well, in my reading and research yesterday, I came up with an article on the freemarketsinside.com site… In the article they talked about how China is reaching out to Africa to further their desire to spread their de-dollarization  call”… And China is using every trick in the book to achieve their goal… For instance, last year, China’s only bank in Africa made HUGE loans to Africa, using that as good neighbors, and gaining the trust of the people in Africa, so that when they want them to ditch their use of dollars and use their renminbi instead, they are coming from a position of trust of the people… 

And in one of my fave countries… Australia… it seems that their consumers are running out of their savings, and still wanting to spend… Why would Australians be any different from U.S. consumers?  This doesn’t lend itself to bring you to want to own A$’s, going forward…  I’m just saying… I know, I said something in a previous Pfennig that there were some observers that thought the A$ was on its way to 70-cents… But, all that is predicated on the U.S. dollar’s performance, which right now isn’t doing the A$ any favors… 

On Bloomberg.com, I found that, no wait, I’ll let Bloomberg tell  you: Six US States Saw Their Economies Shrink in the Second Quarter

Economic output shrank in six US states in the second quarter of 2023, with the biggest contraction coming in the state with the smallest economy — Vermont — according to data published Tuesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Most of the states with shrinking economies are along a north-south belt stretching from Wisconsin to Mississippi.

Chuck again… of course the big box states like Texas grew at 5% pace, which skewers the national numbers… Of course, we didn’t hear about this when the GDP number was announced last week… No, it was all about how great the U.S. economy was…  But you and I know differently, don’t we? We’ve observed that the ISM manufacturing contracted further, Durable Goods Orders, and Factory Orders were both negative, and tomorrow we’ll probably see the U.S. labor market suffer a slowdown… I say “probably” but no one ever knows just what the BLS has up their sleeves… Yesterday, we saw that the ADP Employment Report showed that only 103,000 jobs were added in November, and furthermore, the 3^rd QTR Productivity, showed a gain to 5.2%…  As if that’s something to get you excited about, as all it shows you is that the folks that are working, are working longer and harder… 

But not to worry, because all those Job Openings are falling like flies, so there’s help on the way… Well, that is as long as you believe the BLS’s numbers here…. I don’t, that’s for certain! 

There’s something to all this Gold buying since the big selloff on Tuesday this week… Could it be the short paper traders, after driving the price down, are now buying Gold for the next buildup? Remember how I explained this Ponzi scheme to you previously?  Well, it could certainly be just that… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, doesn’t have much for us, as the markets prepare for tomorrow’s Jobs Jamboree, and right now the so-called expert forecasters say that contrary to what the ADP report showed, that the U.S. had created 190,000 jobs in November…  And this is where I say hogwash! ADP is the check system that all companies use for their payrolls… So, if they had 103,000 new entries in November, that is the jobs created, period!  

To recap…  The dollar buying continued yesterday, but Gold & Silver found ways to gain on the day. The dollar buying ended last night, as traders all attempt to pick of the pieces of the broken prices of currencies, metals, bonds and everything else… Japan might be prepping the markets for an end of their negative interest rate policy… Not all states were growing last quarter, as the GDP report would have indicated… And Chuck goes through the reports that have been negative to argue with the propeller heads that calculated GPD… 

For What It’s Worth…  I talked about bank branches closing the other day, and so I thought I would back that up with more info on branch closings, and that is what this article is about, and can be found here:We Are Witnessing an Avalanche of Branch Closings as U.S. Banks Desperately Try To Stay Alive – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: “If you do things the right way, in the long run you will get positive results.  But if you do things the wrong way, in the long run you will get negative results.  Our banks are the beating heart of our entire economy, and unfortunately, they have been doing things the wrong way for a long time.  As a result, the entire system is being greatly shaken.  Loans are starting to go delinquent at a frightening pace, we have seen endless “banking glitches” in recent months, tens of thousands of banking employees have already been laid off, and U.S. banks are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of unrealized losses.  Sadly, a lot more chaos is on the way.  As small and mid-size banks fail, they will get gobbled up by the big boys.  Of course, the big boys are scrambling to survive too.  In fact, it is being reported that JPMorgan Chase will close a total of 159 local branches by the end of this calendar year…

In 2023, JP Morgan Chase has or will close 159 branch locations across the United States. The banking giant is not alone in its decision to scale back its physical presence as banking moves online; Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi Bank have announced closures at similar scales that will continue into 2024.

Bank of America is not far behind.

We are being told that it will permanently close more than 100 local branches by the end of 2023…

Bank of America is the second largest bank in the United States, and this year, the financial giant has announced that it will close up to 138 locations. To date, 95 branches have been closed this year, and 15 more are to shutter by the end of the year. The remaining locations are planned to close in 2024, meaning that the trend, common among nearly all of the big banks of shutting local branches will continue.

At this point, just about everyone is closing branches.

In addition to laying off workers, this is one of the measures that banks can take to try to save some money.

As I discussed the other day, in just one week in November U.S. banks submitted filings to permanently close another 64 branches.

Of course this “avalanche” of branch closings didn’t just start recently.  In 2022, our banks shut down more than 3,000 branches.  We have never seen anything like this before, and everyone agrees that more branch closures are coming in 2024.

But many banks have no choice.  Right now, U.S. banks are sitting on an absolutely colossal mountain of unrealized losses.”

Chuck again…  like I said, banks don’t need branches when they have digital currencies… 

Market Prices 12/7/2023: American Style: A$ .6562, kiwi .6133, C$ .7348, euro 1.0777, sterling 1.2581, Swiss $1.1406, European Style: rand 18.7636, krone 10.9081, SEK 10.4478, forint 353.89, zloty 4.0188, koruna 22.6050, RUB 92.91, yen 145.11, sing 1.3408, HKD 7.8097, INR 83.32, China 7.1551, peso 17.33, BRL 4.8858, BBDXY 1,241.38, Dollar Index 103.89, Oil $70.18, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $23.99, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $996.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,035.00

That’s it for today and this week… I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning… I just couldn’t answer the bell this morning… And that’s not like me… I’ve always answered the bell no matter what trial and tribulation I had gone through during the night… I guess there’s a first time for anything!  I have a jam-packed week, next week, and I’m looking forward to it! I’m confused with our Blues… They win on Las Vegas ice, but lose on home ice…  A very strange team so far this season… The St. Louis U Billikens lost their game VS Drake last night too… I’m glad I was busy away from home, so I didn’t have to watch these losses!  On Saturday this week, my beloved Mizzou Tigers will play their old rival, Kansas… in the words of Gus Kyle, that should be a real barnburner!  I anxiously await the start of that game on Saturday… David Ian Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: I’ll Be Home For Christmas… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow! And don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler