Author: admin

December 13, 2021

* Gold AND Silver both rally on Friday… 

* Countries hold cyber attack war games… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a fun packed weekend, that got started off on Friday, and again on Saturday! Fun stuff! My StL U. Billikens won their basketball game VS Boston College on Saturday, but my Missouri Tigers lost their game…The Blues beat Montreal 4-1 on Saturday and then came back on Sunday to lose in OT… But they did pick up a point! Well, another week went by, which means I’m even closer to my annual Winter Vacation! YAHOO! I’ve scratched my bald head over and over again trying to come up with a gift for Kathy, the woman that basically buys what she wants and needs all through the year… Last year, I thought I nailed it, but since she’s never worn the necklace with all 4 grandkids names on it, I guess I didn’t! UGH! Oh, well, can’t blame me for not trying! HAHAHAHA! Beegie Adair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Winter Wonderland…

Well, Gold AND Silver both rallied on Friday, and the dollar got sold a bit, after the stupid CPI for November showed the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, rose 0.8% for the month, good for a 6.8% pace on a year over year basis and the fastest rate since June 1982. So, after seeing that I went straight to shadowstats.com to see what John Williams shows what inflation really is… 14.9%, which beats the 14.8% top inflation rate of 1980.. And it just keeps getting worse, folks… And where’s the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel while we are being eaten away with inflation?

Ok… So, as we go deeper into inflation, the negative rates in the U.S. get even more negative! Even using the BLS’s watered down CPI of 6.8%, that means the real yield on a 10-year Treasury is negative -5.3%… Now who in the U.S. would be buying that bond? And that’s the question the dolts at the Eccles Building have to asking themselves, as they attempt to walk away from the auction window and not buy as many Treasuries each month… Pretty soon, it will become very clear to these knuckleheads that they can’t continue to taper, because they have become the buyer of last resort, when it comes to Treasuries…

So… The dollar got sold a little on Friday, the euro climbed back above 1.13. It’s been a back and forth around the 1.13 level for the euro, and I suspect that they too will soon be experiencing higher inflation and then who knows what will happen? One currency that has really turned the tables on the dollar is the Aussie dollar (A$). It was just about 10 days to 2 weeks ago that the A$ was slipping and sliding nearly every day, and it briefly traded below 70-cents… But look at it now, the A$ is back to rallying and is trading this morning around .7140… A long way from a 69-cent handle for sure!

I’ve been talking a lot lately about the Chinese renminbi and how it has been performing, even in the face of a defaulting very large builder in China… I saw a blurb on Bloomberg this past weekend that said that the Chinese renminbi had had a better year than the U.S. dollar… I saw that and chuckled, at the thought, because it was just 3 years ago that I chastised the then POTUS for making a big deal out the trade war with China… And I pointed out that there should have been no celebrating the trade deal, because there were no named auditors of the deal, and who was going to stop China from cheating? Oh, and then there’s this record Trade Surplus they just booked… So much for the Trade War, eh?

So, Gold closed up $7.30 on Friday to end the week at $1,783.90, and Silver closed up 23-cents to end the week at a paltry looking $22.28… , BBDXY slipped every-so slightly on Friday falling from 1,182.49 on Thursday to end the week at 1,182.01… After Friday’s CPI print, the air was pulled from the dollar, as traders are coming to the realization that while higher inflation could mean higher interest rates, it won’t in this case… Uh-Oh…

In the overnight markets last night… Apparently the foreign traders didn’t get the message that the dollar needed to be sold, because they bought the dollar and drove the BBDXY up to 1,183.18 this morning… Gold is up $3, and Silver is up 15-cents in the early trading… 

I just realized that I left you hanging above with regards to what happens to the euro when inflation begins to really rise quickly in the Eurozone… Well, if the dollar buying in the face of rising inflation is any indication, then the euro should be set to rise!  The fundamentalist that I am just chastised my alter ego for saying that, but, in times when opposites rule, fundamentals aren’t a dog that hunts any longer…  Technicals don’t come into play either, because there’s no rhyme or reason for the moves we’re seeing in the asset classes these days…  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! Yes, and my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor!  HA 

I pulled this next part from Ed Steer’s Saturday letter: “Energy prices have risen 33.3% since November 2020, including a 3.5% surge in November. Gasoline alone is up 58.1%.

Food prices have jumped 6.1% over the year, while used car and truck prices, a major contributor to the inflation burst, are up 31.4%, following a 2.5% increase last month.

The Labor Department said the increases for the food and energy components were the fastest 12-month gains in at least 13 years.”

Chuck again, but… the fool on the hill sees the sun going down, and the eyes in his head sees the world spinning around… (Beatles) The fool on the hill is represented by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… They seem to think that we as citizens don’t use food and energy each and every day of our lives…. Maybe they’re so “protected” from these things, but we aren’t! Man am I glad I didn’t listen to the devil on my left shoulder last year, and went out to buy a new gas guzzler… Instead I kept my now 11 year old car…

Don’t you just love it when I go on tangents like that? Like who cares what I drive? I really don’t go anywhere any longer, but to doctor appts. And my local watering hole is less than a mile from my house…

Did you hear about this news? Israel led a 10-country simulation of a major cyberattack on the global financial system in an attempt to increase cooperation that could help to minimize any potential damage to financial markets and banks.

The simulated “war game,” as Israel’s Finance Ministry called it and planned over the past year, evolved over 10 days, with sensitive data emerging on the Dark Web. The simulation also used fake news reports that in the scenario caused chaos in global markets and a run on banks.”

Chuck again… that came curtesy of the good folks at GATA… And doesn’t it just scare you a bit, that countries are playing war games in anticipation of a cyber attack?  Sends chills down my spine, I don’t know about you, but I’m thoroughly rapt into this… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the stupid CPI print, that even as watered down as the BLS’s version of inflation is, it was enough to cause concern…. On Thursday last week, we saw the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fall by a large amount, which leads me to believe that there was some adjustments from the previous holiday shortened week…

I have a quote from economist David Rosenberg on the Jobless Claims data from Twitter… “Initial jobless claims plunged to 184k in the December 4th week from 227k in the November 27th week. This is the lowest level since September 6th, 1969! Bullish statistic? No. A recession came out of the blue exactly three months later.” – David Rosenberg on Twitter

Today and Friday this week the Data Cupboard is empty… And we’ll have to wait until Wednesday this week before we see some real economic data, and then it will be the Nov. print of Retail Sales… I can submit for your review that the BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates that Retail Sales will be strong, as the Christmas shopping season was already taking place in Nov. And there’s not a day that goes by that the Amazon delivery truck doesn’t stop at the Butler house! 

To recap… The stupid CPI printed on Friday last week, and it showed that inflation had increased to 6.8% from Nov. last year…  Shadow stats says that inflation is 14.9%, which beats the Jimmy Carter era inflation rate… That allowed Gold AND Silver to rally on Friday… The dollar slipped just a little on the day, and the Aussie dollar continues to recover… While the Chinese renminbi is having a better year than the U.S. dollar… In the overnight markets the dollar got bought again, for some reason unknown to mankind, but Gold AND Silver are both up a bit this morning. 

For What It’s Worth… This comes to us curtesy of Gold Switzerland and it’s another article by Matthew Piepenburg of whom I’m becoming a fan of for he says the things I wish I had thought of! This article can be found here: Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland

Or, here’s your snippet: “If you’re wondering why the media, markets and mandates are making less sense despite a constant flow of hard facts contradicting their message, it’s critical to watch what is done rather than said by the policy makers behind the fear and inflation “new normal.”

To the extent there’s anything exciting about a cornered Jerome Powell, he was at least able to drop some bombshells at his November 30th meeting before Congress, including a truly cutting-edge observation and fear that inflation forces are “more persistent” and that it’s now time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the same.

Well, Jerome, we could have told you that long, long ago, but this, of course, is no shocker…

Perhaps more “exciting” was his not-so-subtle announcement that the Fed plans to begin a discussion at its next meeting to accelerate the Fed taper by a few months.

Hmmm…

Despite the fact that any Fed Taper will in substance be a “non-taper” given backdoor liquidity tricks from the Standing Rep Facility and FIMA swap lines, the optics of such continued taper-talk will be negative for almost all assets save for the USD, the VIX trade, so-called “safe-haven” Treasuries and possibly gold.

The Treasury Market’s Bigger Troubles
Longer term, however, there is very good reason to worry about the $22T Treasury market should the Fed begin reducing portions of its $80B per month of UST support in a backdrop of steady and now undeniably “persistent” inflation.

As we noted elsewhere, the Treasury market, with less Fed “accommodation,” is not nearly as liquid as the Fed would otherwise wish you to believe.

In short, if stocks and bonds begin to fall in concert, as is likely, such malfunctioning of an otherwise rigged securities market will get harder to contain without a quick reversal of the “forward-guided” taper strategy signaled by Powell.

Even the best rated corporate bonds lost 2% in the last 60 days as sell-offs continue, pushing yields up as dollar liquidity in the C-suites gets harder to come by.

For now, of course, everything about the ever-supported (and hence ever-rising and rigged) stock market is a screaming indicator of record-high over-valuation by every metric.”

Chuck again… I know, I know a very long Snippet this morning… But you should click on the link above and read the whole article, and then you come away saying, the Snippet wasn’t that long compared to the article!

Market Prices 12/13/2021: American Style: A$ .7140,  kiwi .6775, C$ 1.7840, euro 1.1280, sterling 1.3250, Swiss $1.0829, European Style: rand 15.9349, krone 9.0066, SEK 9.0660,  forint 325.27,  zloty 4.0950,  koruna 22.5183, RUB 73.38, yen 113.64, sing 1.3672, HKD 7.7996, INR 75.66, China 6.3685, peso 20.88, BRL 5.6112,  BBDXY 1,183.18, Dollar Index 96.30,  Oil $71.01, 10-year 1.47%, Silver $22.43, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $1,840.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold… $1,787.60

That’s it for today… OK… I’ve got a funny for you. This was sent to me from Dennis Miller, who, like me has seen hard times with our respective health. “If the hard times make you stronger, then I should be able to kick Superman’s Ass by now”!!!!! Now that’s great! Tomorrow I head to the dermatologist about the spots on my head… I totally dislike going to new doctors, for I have to go through my health history all over again… UGH! I’m also going to be going to the Garden Glow with some family tomorrow night… Thank you Terri! Saturday night I got to see some former colleagues, Christine, Antoine, Aaron, Tim, Chris, Ty, and Jack at Dane Moody’s wedding reception that was delayed a year by the plandemic… A fun time was had by all! Dane was probably just 5 when his parents moved into our subdivision, right down the street… And we used to have some killer street hockey games in front of the house!  The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line with their version of the song: Baby, It’s Cold Outside….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will you please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

 

 

December 9, 2021

* Currencies rally on Wednesday, but metals don’t… 

* Communists needn’t apply… 

Good Day… And a  Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all…  well, I Have nothing for you this morning regarding St. Louis sports, and I’m sure y’alll will have no problem with that! I made myself dinner last night again, and this time I really outdid myself! Yummy!  I used white wine for my pasta sauce, and then drank the rest of the bottle myself!  I’m sure Kathy is not happy about the fact that I emptied her bottle of wine in the fridge, but I don’t care, as I was alone by myself, and when I cook, I use everything! I was informed by my darling daughter, Dawn, that I would be reading to her class next week, outside, as the weather is supposed  to be nice, and I’m happy as a lark about that! Each year, except last year, I read the T’was the Night Before Christmas to her class, and each year the kids want to know if I’m Santa Claus..  Well, maybe not this year, as I’m down nearly 100 lbs since a year ago!  But, kids will be kids, right?  And I love their imaginations! Up On A Housetop is the song that greets me this morning by the David Ian Trio…

Well, the dollar was sold on Wednesday… I guess traders finally got tired of waiting for a direction from economic data, to trade the dollar… The BBDXY started the day yesterday at 1,18201, and ended the day at 1,178.96.. The euro rose above the 1.13 handle once again, and all the currency looked perky.. albeit, well below where they were before the dollar went on this recent run higher…  Gold and Silver never found a consistent bid yesterday and ended the day basically flat, but down pennies., with Gold down 70-cents to close the day at $1,784.40, and Silver down 8-cents to close the day at $22.52..  

The data yesterday was not really to blame for the dollar selling, as we only had the Outstanding Job Openings and Job quits to deal with…  So, there was something that pushed currency traders over the edge with regards to the dollar yesterday.. But they did sell dollars ,and that is about time as far as I’m concerned!  The U.S. has a record debt that has now reached $29 Trillion, and the U.S. GDP is roughly $23 Trillion… Which means that our debt is greater than our GDP… And our Unfunded Debts are more than $161 Trillion… , and get this.. U.S. Personal Debt is greater than $22 Trillion!!!   Who’s going to pay for these debts?  Well, if things got really bad, you might get a letter in the mail telling you that your portion of the debt, as a taxpayer is $229,700..

Reuters tells us why the dollar got sold yesterday, “The dollar fell against several of its major counterparts on Wednesday, as easing concerns about the economic hit from the Omicron COVID-19 variant helped support riskier currencies, with the Australian dollar on pace to notch a third straight session of gains.”

In the overnight market last night… When will these two markets get together and sync up their thoughts on the dollar?  As I just said, the dollar got sold in the U.S. session yesterday. But, in the overnight session the dollar was bought… C’mon guys, pick a lane!   So, overnight the BBDXY has risen to 1,182.49, from yesterday’s close of 1,178.96..  That’s not a tiny move like we’ve seen lately as the dollar drifted..  The euro remains above 1.13, but doesn’t look as strong as it did yesterday… 

The Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble take center stage again this morning, as both defy the dollar buying and see buying of their respective currencies.  As I said yesterday, China’s current level VS the dollar hasn’t been seen since 2018. A record trade surplus was recently reported in China, and I think traders are of the thought that China will trade surplus their way out of the housing mess they are in…  

How can China be printing trade surpluses when there is a distribution chain debacle going on?  Well, apparently a lot of China’s exports are in the region, where they don’t have to be put on cargo ships, and sent around the world…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight, and is trading this morning with a $71 handle, albeit a very high 71 handle! And the U.S. Treasury 10-year’s yield has inched higher once more, this morning to a 1.49% figure..  I still contend that by the time I’m sitting in my seat at Roger Dean Stadium this next spring that the 10-year’s yield will be 2%… 

And now we’re going to talk about.. debt… I said many years ago, that “debt was slavery”… And now that U.S. consumers are in debt to the tune of $15 Trillion, they have to work to pay that off, and their work becomes associated with paying down their debt..   You know, I do get it, that people have taken on more debt at these uber low interest rates, but it still means they working to pay off the debt..  We, as consumers, are not the Gov’t, and we can’t just print dollars to pay our debts… So think about that for a minute, before you sign up for another loan… There’s going to be no one to bail you out of that debt… 

Edward Griffen, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island, that I recommended to readers years ago to read, sent me this note yesterday: “The Fraternal Order of the Police reported that 314 officers have been shot in the US this year, more than any other year, with 58 of them being killed by gunfire, and there is still another month left in the year. Ambush attacks on cops are up 126% since 2020.” 

I don’t know about you, but I’m appalled at this information.. You know… when the police decide that the risk is too great, and they go home, who’s going to protect the citizenry?  

Ok, getting back to markets…  The price of Oil continues to ratchet higher on news that the reserves are being restocked… And that means that the reserves aren’t getting released to sell and lower the price of Oil..  So much for that release that the POTUS made about 10 days ago, eh? I do believe I told you at that time that I didn’t think it would do much to the price of Oil…  And look where we are now?

And look at the 10-year Treasury’s yield rising.. .This morning it’s trading with a 1.49% yield, when just last week it was trading with a 1.38% yield…  Last week’s drop in yields had me telling you that the there were signs of short coverings going on, but once those cleared we could very well see the yield rise where it should be going… And voila! That’s what we’re seeing once again!  I don’t want to get bursitis from slapping myself on the back here, so I’ll just let that ride…

I read an article in our local newspaper yesterday that detailed how stressful the Covid Plandemic has been on the Gen Z’s…  (the young folks)…  And I though back to my most stressful time as a young adult, the Vietnam War…  There was no one out there patting us on the back and telling us that we needed a safe place to express ourselves… We got our draft number in the mail and reported for duty if we were called… I’m not saying that my generation was better than the Gen Z’s, I’m just saying we didn’t have people writing about how it was affecting us… And while I could be way off base here, I would think that being sent off to war, was more stressful than a plandemic…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday show that there are 11 Million job openings up from 10.6 Million in Sept, and that the job quits were 4.2 Million in Rocktober…  how can an economy grow when you have so many job openings that people refuse to fill, and that you have so many people quitting their jobs each month?

Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and some new data prints… Real Household Debt, and Real domestic nonfinancial debt… While those won’t move the market because they have nothing to compare them with, they do set the base for future prints…

And in Japan, this is important because as I’ve been saying for over a decade now, “We’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so”… Japan’s economy shrank 3.6% in the third quarter, worse than the initial estimate of a 3.0% contraction, revised government data showed on Wednesday, posting a decline as private spending took a hit from a resurgence in Covid-19.  So, we have that to look forward to folks… 

To recap.. The currencies found some room to rally VS the dollar yesterday, and it wasn’t just the Petrol Currencies rallying this time. Gold & Silver drifted lower on the day, but by pennies not by large chunks…  The dollar got sold because the fears of the Omicron variant abated…  Hmmm… The data yesterday showed that there where more job openings and more jobs quits in Rockober, and the great resignation continues…  And then Chuck stops back on to his soapbox…

Before we head to the Big Finish today, you may recall me telling you about the nut that POYUS had nominated to be the Comptroller of the Currency, right? Well here was the news yesterday: Yesterday, Cornell Law Professor, Saule Omarova, withdrew from her nomination to become the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks. Emily Flitter, reporting for The New York Times, said it was because Omarova had been “painted as a communist.” In terms of the full story on why Omarova had to withdraw, that is like pointing to a single droplet of rain as the cause of a hurricane.

For What It’s Worth…. Well, this article comes to us from Ed Steer’s letter this morning, and it’s about the stupid, circus show that the debt ceiling talks are… And it can be found here: Debt ceiling: House takes step toward preventing U.S. default (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The House took a first step Tuesday toward preventing a possible default on U.S. debt.

The chamber passed a bill that would allow the Senate to raise the country’s borrowing limit with a simple majority vote. Lawmakers attached the provision to legislation that would prevent automatic Medicare cuts set to take place at the end of the year.

The measure will head to the Senate. It will need 10 Republican votes to pass and go to President Joe Biden’s desk.

Once the president signs the bill, the House and Senate can hold separate votes to raise the debt ceiling with a simple majority — or without Republican support. GOP leaders have said the party will not join Democrats in hiking the borrowing limit, but as part of a new strategy, Republicans also are not expected to block their counterparts from preventing a default.

Chuck again.. It’s all a dog and pony, circus show folks… The debt ceiling is not really a ceiling, it’s just a suggestion for lawmakers to make a big deal out of so their voters think they are really working on something!  What a bunch of bunk! 

Market prices 12/9/ 2021: American Style: A$ .7140,  kiwi .6790, C$ .7881, euro 1.1313, sterling 1.3133, Swiss $1.0841, European Style: rand 15.9104, krone 8.9704, SEK 9.0551,  forint 323, 25,  zloty 4.0734,  koruna 22.4780, RUB 73.71, yen 113.54, sing 1.3659, HKD 7.7964, INR 75.55, China 6.3488, peso 21.04, BRL 5.5822,  BBDXY 1,182.49, Dollar Index 96.14,  Oil $71.94, 10-year 1.49%, Silver $22.30, Platinum $948.00, Palladium $1,916.00, Copper $4.33, and Gold… $1,778.50

That’s it for today.. A very slow newsday yesterday, had me scrambling looking for stuff to talk about..  There was one article yesterday that was interesting.. it was the end of Angela Merkel’s end as Chancellor of Germany, ending her 16 year reign as Chancellor, in which she presided over the meltdown of the European Union, when the debts of Greece and others were uncovered…  I believe she did a good job throughout all of that, in her effort to save the European Union..  It will be interesting to see if the new Chancellor of Germany has the same thoughts about preserving the European Union, over the soveign duties of the country of Germany…  OK… I’m off the rest of this week, and will enjoy my sleep later time tomorrow…  And I hope my friends are back in town to meet up at our local drinking hole for Friday afternoon!  I’m listening to my Christmas in the City CD by the Stephen Kummer trio this morning, and they are playing the song: When My Heart Finds Christmas to take us to the finish line today… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

December 8, 2021

*Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday… 

* The price of Oil rebounds… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! In the Blues game last night VS Florida, it appeared, early on, that the Blues were getting outskated and outshot by a Huge margin and that it would become an ugly game… But that didn’t happen… And the Blues came out in the second period and from then on it was a different game, with the Blues winning  4-3 in Overtime…  Our Blues are very shorthanded right now, with players out for the COVID Protocol, and injuries.. .I bet that was a very tired bunch of Blues last night… I cooked dinner last night, parmesan crusted pork cutlets… Man they were yummy!  I’m listening to my new CD, Winter Romance by Biggie Adair this morning, and she does a wonderful version of the song: A Child Is Born…

Well, it was another day of drifting at sea for the dollar yesterday, with no real economic data to give traders any direction to trade. The movement the dollar did make was a slight downward movement as illustrated by the BBDXY. The BBDXY started the day at 1,184.98 and end it at 1,184.41… So, as you can see the downward movement was very small…  The euro remained below the 1.13 handle, but moved ever so closer to the figure as the day went along.  The Chinese renminbi, of which I’ve talked a lot about lately, saw another strengthening move on Tuesday, and ended the day there with the strongest it’s has been VS the dollar since 2018… 

Gold & Silver were able to gain on Tuesday, yes, I truly mean that Silver did gain, as difficult as it is to imagine that these days!  Gold closed up $5.60 to end the day at $1,785.10, and Silver ended the day up 12-cents to close at $22.60…  I’m truly amazed these days when these two metals get to actually show a gain on a day… They should be gaining daily, but we all know that’s not what’s been going on…  UGH!

The price of Oil added to their gain on Monday, throughout Tuesday.. At one point in the day the price of Oil briefly traded above the $72 handle, finally settling down at $71.87…  Here’s Bloomberg.com on their thoughts on the price of Oil: “Crude has surged more than 8% over the past two sessions — rising along with other financial assets — on cautious optimism that the omicron virus variant is unlikely to derail the global economic recovery. There’s few deaths from the new strain so far and little sign of a major impact on oil demand.”

Chuck again… OK, in the overnight markets last night… there was some dollar selling that was quite evident… The euro is within spitting distance of 1.13, and the  BBDXY has dropped from 1,184.41 to 1.182.01 this morning… The Petrol Currencies are giddy with excitement this morning, as the price of Oil has moved into the $72 handle… Shoot Rudy, even the Mexican peso is rallying alongside its Petrol brothers… 

Gold & Silver are basically flat this morning…  But could very well move higher as the day goes on, with the fear of a geopolitical event on the horizon, after the Potus talked to Russian President, Putin yesterday. There have been no reports of the meeting, but given what I know about the situation, I would think that Putin downplayed his country’s involvement in Ukraine, while crossing his fingers behind his back! 

I’ll have more on data prints in later in the letter, as usual, but first I wanted to talk in depth about productivity…  Part of the data yesterday was 3^rd QTR Productivity… I’ve always disliked this data because it simply reports how hard people are working…  Well, I told you yesterday that I expected this data to remain negative, and it did, in fact, go negative more, which does tell us something, folks… It tells us that Companies are getting less work out of people, while they are having to pay higher wages…  That doesn’t bode well for this country, I’m just saying…

Yesterday, I bared my thoughts on the U.S. thinking it’s the policeman of the world…  And then I read a piece where it was described that the U.S. has so-called iron-clad agreements to defend both Ukraine and Taiwan… And immediately, my spider sense went to work… What if, all this working together by the Chinese and Russians yields a two pronged attack in order to thin out the U.S. Military?  Another reason for the U.S. to step back and not play policeman, for I don’t believe we, as a military, are not ready for those moves…  I could be wrong, but why risk it?  The U.S. doesn’t need the increased debt accumulation it would take to fund wars, and we certainly don’t need to expose our young people to wars…

You can tell that yesterday was a slow news day, because I’m going out on limbs today… Oh, there are more to go out on in bit, so stay tuned!

The U.S. Data Cuboard yesterday had those three prints I talked about in Tuesday’s letter, and I was bang on with all of them…  As aforementioned the Productivity in the 3^rd QTR printed more negative than in the 2^nd QTR, The Unit Labor Costs for the 3^rd QTR were larger than in the 2^nd QTR, and Consumer Credit (read debt) didn’t print as scheduled, but did print after all, as it was slipped through under the cover of radar, and showed that Credit Card purchases by U.S. consumers dropped in Rocktober… So, in my mind that is an indication that the U.S. consumer is maxed out on their Credit cards, and that doesn’t bode well for the consumption part of GDP… 

There also was the preliminary print of the Trade Deficit for last month, and it narrowed!  But that has to because the dollar strengthened in Nov. by a large margin… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Job Openings and the Job Quits for Rocktober…  just a friendly Spiderman reminder that the Job Openings were over 10 Million and the Job Quits were over 4 Million in September… 

But this data won’t be enough to get traders to make a directional call today, so expect more drifting…

To Recap…. The currencies gained a smidgen yesterday VS the dollar, as the dollar drifted out to sea yesterday, with no economic data to give traders a direction…  Gold & Silver, both gained on the day, and yes that was not a typo on the Silver gaining yesterday!  Chuck seems to be on his soapbox a lot today, and there’s more and here it comes….

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to talk about something that just seems stranger than fiction to me…  The news from NYC was that even kids from age 5 are now to be excluded from restaurants and theaters and everything else, unless they show their vaccination proof… Wait! What?  I can only say that just when you thought that this whole plandemic response couldn’t get any stranger, this comes along…  And now the question has changed from “have you gotten jabbed”? to…  Is it safe to associate with the Unboostered?   Please, Good Lord, deliver me the strength to deal with all this mania, for I am but a human that will react to this negatively without your help….

For What It’s Worth… So how many of you recall me telling you about 2 years ago about my vision for the future of the folding currency, and that we would eventually wake up one day to find that our bank account didn’t reflect dollars any longer, only digits and that would be the end of our civil liberties and so on?   Well, just to refresh your memory, I found this article on Bloomberg.com and it’s about the end of cash, and it can be found here: We Are Almost Cashless Societies But Let’s Not Rush Too Quickly Into the Future – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The demise of cash is near. As consumers, though, we should hope that the end doesn’t arrive too soon.

It isn’t the pandemic that’s putting this popular means of payment out of existence. All that Covid-19 has done is to accelerate a trend that was already with us. When Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone in 2007, he began killing the need for banknotes. Autonomous cars, self-ordering refrigerators and our digital avatars in the metaverse will put the final nails in King Cash’s coffin.

Covid-19 shifted $5 trillion in global retail sales from offline to online. To the extent that a big chunk of this value was transacted in cash (47% in the euro area), the idea that central-bank-issued currency was a must for purchasing daily essentials took a knock. After an initial bump in precautionary cash hoarding, curbs on mobility and the fear of catching germs from handling paper money forced a change in habits.

Where governments gave out vouchers to perk up spending — like in Hong Kong — millions of consumers and thousands of merchants became new users of online payment systems just to utilize the handouts. Many will likely continue using these new ways to settle bills.

But just how crucial were these changes in the overall scheme of things? The different trajectory of banknotes in China and India provides a natural experiment to gauge the relative importance of temporary shocks and steady technological change.

Cash use plummeted in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi cancelled 86% of the existing legal tender overnight as part of a botched economic experiment. That was five years ago. Nowadays, digital payments are booming, but cash is once again 14% of the broad money circulating in the economy — the same as before demonetization. In China, where physical currency was made irrelevant by the growing ubiquity of Alipay and WeChat Pay, the central bank’s IOUs to the public account for only 4% of money.

Technological progress lacks the drama of a behavioral shock, but it’s no less stunning. As JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jeremy Balkin and Neha Wattas remind us, the fastest way to move money from New York to London as recently as 2010 was to catch a flight from JFK to Heathrow and deliver it in person. Their report, provocatively titled “Payments Are Eating the World,” notes several shifts taking place in unison. In China, super-app platforms transformed money; elsewhere, the rise of a creator and gig economy is doing it. Globally, 50 million people are blogging, making short videos or telling people what to buy on the internet — and getting paid online as well.”

Chuck again… so as the article illustrates, it’s not just the U.S. that will end cash, but it will be worldwide effort to do so…  my only hope is that there will be a black market for cash deals…

Market price 12/8/2021: American Style: A$ .7133,  kiwi .6780, C$ .7914, euro 1.1292, sterling 1.3293, Swiss $1.0828, European Style: rand 15.7835, krone 8.9543, SEK 9.0821,  forint 326.47,  zloty 4.0671,  koruna 22.5429, RUB 74.20, yen 113.75, sing 1.3643, HKD 7.7962, INR 75.37, China 6.3662, peso 20.93, BRL 5.6592,  BBDXY 1,182.01, Dollar Index 96.24,  Oil $72.15, 10-year 1.47%, Silver $22.50, Platinum $964.00, Palladium $1,930.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $1,785.70

That’s it for today… A great win last night for our Blues, but not so much for the St. Louis U. Billikens who lost their basketball game.  So, a mixed results night overall for St. Louis sports… I don’t have any other doctor appts until next Tuesday, when I see a dermatologist about some spots on my bald head that won’t heal, and my PCP tells me it’s probably cancer, that they’ll burn off, and be done with it… So, that’s exactly how I’m looking at this…  The Pfennig was shorter than normal today, because of the slow news day yesterday, and the markets not really moving in one direction…  So, take it while you can! HA!  Biggie Adiar’s version of Auld Lang Syne takes us to the finish line today… I said this last year, and I’ll say it again, that the Celtic Women’s Lisa, does the best version of this song I’ve ever heard… It brings tears to my eye…  And with that, I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

December 7, 2021

* Currencies & metals get sold on Monday… 

* What on earth is Madame La Garde thinking? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Today is our remembrance of our first day of infamy… Pearl Harbor… It turned cold again yesterday, the sun was out, but it wasn’t doing anything to warm the air… I had to break out my winter coat again. UGH! Not to worry though as it will be warm again by Thursday this week!  My trip to see Holly, was a piece of cake… She told me I did great… And I relayed a story to her that one time in the hospital Kathy asked me why I was so nice and accommodating to the nurses, and I replied, “Because they have the needles!”  HA!  Speaking of needles, last week at the oncologist, the lab person had to stick me 3 times before they found a vein.. OUCH! I had never had anyone say they had a difficult time finding my veins before… Am I getting Old? Don’t answer that! I know darn well I’m getting old…  Ellis Marsalis greets me this morning with his version of the song: O Tannenbaum…  (Oh Christmas Tree)

No data in the Data Cupboard yesterday, meant no direction for traders to take, and why would they trade on Friday’s awful labor data? I’m being facetious there…  And with no direction to take, they decided to allow the dollar to drift on the day… The BBDXY was 1,185.40 in the morning when we started and it ended the day at 1,185.54… The euro remained below 1.13, and the Aussie dollar kept its overnight gains. The two renegades, if you will, that keep the pressure on the dollar when all other currencies fade, the Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble are the kings of the hill…

Gold & Silver could never find a bid all day, and closed down on the day, with Gold down $4.10 to close at $1,779.50, and Silver done 14-cents to close the day at $22.48…  This has been a very bad year for these two metals, especially Silver, but they didn’t go to zero, they don’t have debt obligations tied to them, they aren’t issued by Gov’t’s, so they’ve got  that going for them!

In the last 24 hours the price of Oil has risen and this morning it trades with a $71 handle… I had thought that the selling of Oil last week was way overdone, and this move back above $70 confirms that…  The 10-year Treasury Bond also saw some weakness with the yield rising to 1.44% this morning… Of course, the yield on the 10-year should be much higher and moving toward 2%, but yield manipulation by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, continues to weigh on the 10-year’s yield…  UGH! 

In the overnight markets last night… There was more drifting, but this drifting led to dollar weakness! The BBDXY dropped from 1,185.54 at yesterday’s close to 1,184.98 this morning… Again, no big move, just a “drifting”, if you will…  Gold & Silver begin the day on the plus side of the ledger, with Gold up $4.30 and Silver up a plug nickel!  There just doesn’t seem to be any real force to move the markets this morning.  And the Data Cupboard today, isn’t going to change that… So… another day of being adrift at sea for the dollar today… 

I received an email on Friday from a well known analyst, that told me that the stock market was going to drop like a rock on Monday, and then in a follow-up email on Saturday, he told me that time was running out…  And then Monday came and went, and stocks gained on the day…  Well, so much for that.. .What does that make this kind of end of the world as we know it claim? The 4^th time we’ve heard this?   Listen, I know the stock market is a major bubble floating around the room looking for a pin, to pop it, but so far it has avoided that pin… I get it, but why try to pin down a particular day that it’s going to happen? One of these days, Alice, the stock market bubble will find that pin, and he’ll say “he told you”… 

I’m thinking back to 2011, when I told an audience in Orlando Florida, that the Chinese renminbi would be a reserve currency within the next 10 years…  See what I did there? I gave myself a very long time frame for this to happen…  But that’s not hype… And it doesn’t sell… I’m just saying…

I saw on Twitter yesterday, something from one of my fave writers, Grant Williams, who commented on a news item from the European Central Bank, that said that ECB President, Christine LaGarde was going to change the looks of the euro notes…  And that brought Grant to say, “Would someone please tell Madame Lagarde that she has a few more pressing priorities…” -Grant Williams on Twitter…

The Eurozone has the same problems as the U.S. does…  Very high Debt, negative yielding bonds, rising inflation, and a Central Bank that refuses to admit they were wrong about inflation…  There is one difference here, and that is the U.S. owns the reserve currency of the world…  And they should be held to a higher standard because of that ownership…

In yesterday’s 5 Minute Forecast edited by David Gonigam, he had this quote from James Rickards in the letter, in which Rickards was commenting on the Fed…  Let’s listen in.. “The plan is to cut off the supply completely sometime next spring, and then start raising interest rates to a point where they’ll be something approximating “normal” by late 2023.

Just one problem: “The Fed can’t make an accurate six-month forecast,” says our Jim Rickards, “so the idea that they can forecast the economy and set monetary policy two years in advance is absurd.” – James Rickards in the 5 Minute Forecast 12/6/21

I thought the timing of this article that appeared in my local paper, The St. Louis Post Dispatch yesterday, was bad…   Here’s the title of the article: Economy booms, but Americans see gloom

GDP is growing rapidly, unemployment is down and wages are rising, but measures of consumer sentiment show that Americans hold negative views about the economy.”

Ok, where do I start this this?  I could point out that 1 the economy isn’t booming, 2, the GDP is at 2.1%, you call that rapidly growing?  And the stupid Consumer Confidence isn’t a measure of anything but the performance of the stock market…   I used to think that the economics guy at the Post Dispatch knew his stuff, until this article came out…

In today’s U.S. Data Cupboard we’ll see three prints that put together wouldn’t make a real economic data print, but we’ll see them nonetheless… First up will be 3^rd QTR Productivity, which will be negative again… Then we’ll see the 3^rd QTR Unit Labor Costs , which will remain high, and finally the Rocktober print of Consumer Credit (read debt) which sometimes prints on a scheduled data, and other times it prints when its good and ready…

To recap… The dollar drifted all day yesterday, and did close the day up a smidgen… Gold & silver never found a bid all day, and both closed down on the day.  The Dynamic duo of Chinese renminbi and Russian rubles continue to hold steady Eddie while all other currencies get sold.  And then Chuck gets into some articles that he has found to be interesting.. . And in the overnight markets the dollar got sold a bit, but really it’s all just drifting away at sea… 

 

For What It’s Worth…. Ok, first off this is NOT a political statement, I’m not pointing fingers at any party or person, just pointing out that we, as a country are toeing up to a very dangerous war, and that scares the bejeebers out of me… So, this article can be found here: Biden Mulls Cutting Russia Off SWIFT Ahead Of Putin Call In “Nuclear Option” Ukraine Response | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “CNN and others are reporting just a day ahead of the much anticipated video call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden that the White House is mulling “nuclear option” level actions against Moscow should it launch a military offensive against Ukraine – which US intelligence has lately said could be imminent based on assessing that some 175,000 troops have been mustered in the Crimea and regions near Ukraine’s eastern border.

This includes discussion of the possibility of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, seen as the most drastic potential measure which further includes fresh sanctions on Putin’s inner circle and on Russian energy producers.

The Kremlin has of course vehemently rejected the Ukraine threat accusations, saying it’s free to move its own troops wherever it sees fit within the Russian Federation’s sovereign territory and borders.

But the White House is now threatening the following, according to CNN on Monday:

People familiar with the discussions said new economic sanctions could target a variety of sectors, including energy producers and Russian banks. The new sanctions could also go after Russia’s sovereign debt.

They are also likely to go after top Russian oligarchs, limiting their ability to travel and potentially cutting off access to American banking and credit card systems.

And in particular, the “nuclear option” – which is now grabbing headlines…

Officials have also been weighing disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, upon which Russia remains heavily reliant, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. This is being considered a “nuclear” option. The European Parliament passed a nonbinding resolution in the spring calling for such a move should Russia invade Ukraine, and the US has been discussing it with EU counterparts.”

 

Chuck again…  This move would be very challenging to the Russians, folks, and is the reason they were working on a their own version of Swift, along with China… I guess they’ll be finding out if it works or not, very soon… But, why tick off the bear? I just don’t get it… We are NOT the policemen of the world, and the sooner, the leaders of our country figure that out, the better the whole world will be…  There! I said it!  and I know many will send me nasty emails today, and that’ll be my penitence for speaking my mind… 

Market prices 12/7/21: American Style: A$  .7102, kiwi .6770,  C$ .7888, euro 1.1260, sterling 1.3250, Swiss $1.0801, European Style: rand 15.9661, krone 9.0508, SEK 9.1061,  forint 325.04,  zloty 4.0779,  koruna 22.6290, RUB 73.92, yen 113.52, sing 1.3664, HKD 7.7969, INR 75.35, China 6.3717, peso 21.33, BRL 5.6683,  BBDXY 1,184.98, Dollar Index 96.40,  Oil $71.57, 10-year 1.44%, Silver $22.53, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $1,974.00, Copper $4.35, and Gold… $1,783.80

That’s it for today… The weatherman said last night that we would see snow flurries today, I always get a kick out of the first snow of the season… But then I’m ready to go south!  It has occurred to me that somewhere along the way, our months got jiggied…  the weather we used to get in Nov, we now get in Rocktober, and so forth… But like my call that baseball’s Opening Day should be a National Holiday, this call to adjust the months will fall on deaf ears… Congrats to former Cardinals pitcher, Jim Kaat, for his induction to the Hall of Fame… It took long enough, but at least he’s still alive to enjoy telling people his a Hall of Famer! In 2009, my beloved Missouri Tigers played Navy in a bowl game. I had a dear reader bet me a shiny quarter that his Navy team would win, and they did, running the ball down the Tigers’ throats… I have a bad feeling about the upcoming bowl game with Army, who also runs the ball all the time… UGH!  The Dave Brubeck Quartet takes us to the finish line today with their version of Santa Claus Is Coming To Town… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

December 6, 2021

* Currencies and Metals are back to getting sold… 

* What kind of baloney is the IMF telling us now? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, it was NOT a good day, Saturday for St. Louis University, as both the soccer and basketball teams lost… The soccer team had been undefeated this year, but lost in Washington, on a rain soaked, soggy field..  Well, there were two Championship games worth watching on Saturday.. The SEC & Big 12 Championship games, had upsets, of which I love…  I was alone at home this past weekend, so all I did on Saturday was veg-out in front of the TV and watch college football… We had great weather on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, and I got outside on Thursday and Friday quite a bit… The David Ian Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: I Heard The Bells On Christmas Day…

Talk about some rotten labor data late last week!  First off on Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims shot higher to 222,000 from the previous week’s 194,000… And then on Friday, the Jobs Jamboree showed that November job creation was only 210,000.. . the experts had forecast a greater than 500,000 number, so they were very wrong…   What were they thinking?  The BLS actually added 13,000 jobs to the surveys, so the actual number was 187,000 jobs in November…

And that news got the markets thinking that Powell’s warning of a faster taper and move to a rate hike will have to be put on hold, for now…. And that thought got Gold on the minds of investors once more, and the shiny metal was able to gain $13.70 on the day to close the week at $1,783.60, while Silver also gained, believe it or not, 15-cents to close the week at $22.62… I’m not going to quibble about the fact that Gold was moving higher and got to 1,788.00 before sales came on board, and stopped the rally in its tracks…  It is what it is…  price manipulation, but at least it was watered down on Friday, thankfully!

The dollar was sold a bit on Friday, but not by much… The BBDXY started the week at 1,187.22, and ended the week at 1,183.70… In between we saw a HUGE gain by the dollar in a day, but that got whittled down as the week went on… The euro saw its value drop below 1.13 during the week, but rallied back to move over the 1.13 handle once again… It’s been a game of moving over the 1.13 level and then falling back below it for a month now… And that tells me that traders are not sure how to trade the dollar these days… I would think that sooner or later these traders will come to the realization that the dollar needs to get sold… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar was getting bought again, lather, rinse, repeat, is that what it seems to be these days in the currencies…  The BBDXY rose overnight to 1,185.40, and the euro dropped back below 1.13…  The Aussie dollar on Friday, dropped, briefly below 70-cents, and appeared to be in a free fall, but calmer heads prevailed in the overnight markets and the A$ is back above 70-cents this morning. The price of Oil has gained about $2 overnight, and trades this morning with a $68 handle… And the yield on the 10 year Treasury has dropped even further and this morning is at 1.38%…  

With the 10-year at 1.38%, I would think that getting a mortgage loan in the 2%’s is not uncommon, and that just doesn’t seem to be a good thing to me… Now it would if I were buying a house, but I’m not… Oh well, another housing bubble getting blown to the size of a blimp, will just have to wait around to get popped again. 

Circling back to the currencies for a second…  The pattern we saw in place a week or so ago is back, and that is where the currencies all look weak, except the Chinese renminbi, and Russian ruble,  who are on the rally tracks…  

I was surprised when scanning Twitter on Sunday I came across an Time article, that basically said that we all need to chill about inflation…  Really? I said to no one, but me… And that got me thinking… OK… we are in the midst of the “great resignation” right?  And people don’t want to go back to their old jobs because of a number of reasons… But don’t you think that a hefty increase in their pay would entice them to return?  And that’s where I see the U.S. going in order to keep businesses alive, and higher wages would cause increases in the prices of the items the businesses make and sell…  And then we would finally get wage inflation…  And that could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back…  Can you say 12-15% inflation?  I knew you could… but do you believe that with wage inflation we could very well see inflation rise to those levels? 

Well, with the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel dragging their feet with any response to rising inflation, we could very well be on our way there… At least that’s what I’m thinking, and fearing… 

OK… onto something else before my head begins to spin… I also saw a funny on Twitter yesterday, it was a tweet by Sven Henrich, of whom I’ve quoted several times in the past… In this tweet he had a video clip of a magician doing some tricks, and he commented that it was Jerome Powell, preparing for the next Fed meeting…  Cracked me up!

And then perusing Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, I came across this bit of news that really had me riled the rest of the day… “The IMF on Thursday urged advanced economies in the G20 to extend and improve their debt relief initiative, warning that many countries face a dire crisis without the help.

“We may see economic collapse in some countries unless G20 creditors agree to accelerate debt restructurings and suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated,” IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said in a blog, adding that it is critical private creditors also offer relief.

The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) expires at the end of the year, and without a renewal, countries would face financial pressure and spending cuts just as new Covid-19 variants are spreading and interest rates are expected to rise, she said”

Chuck again, Oh, that’s just what the G20 countries need to is to add more debt to their already unsustainable levels of debt…  Do you know what should have been said?  “we realize that the G20 nations are up to their eyeballs in debt, and therefore there will be some nations that don’t make it in the coming year”…   But that didn’t happen, and it won’t either! 

Did you know that the U.S. Treasury’s long bond, the 30year is now trading at a yield that’s lower than it was during the great recession?  And that’s with inflation on the rise, and a disruption of the supply chain, and a Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel that’s slower than molasses in responding to these problems…  It just tears me up that the 30 year yield is paying just 1.68%, which by the way is less than the 20 year bond’s 1.71% yield… What’s up with that?  There’s so much yield manipulation going on in Bonds from the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, that the bond boys can’t even get a normal yield curve in place!

In addition, did you know that there are still over 10 Million job openings in the U.S.? And that in the last report from Rocktober 4.4 Million people quit their jobs?  The “great resignation”, is what this is called…  And I repeat, it’s going to take some hefty pay increases to get these people to come back to work…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, is empty…  And for the most part won’t have much to look at this week until we get to Friday, when the stupid CPI (consumer inflation) report for November prints…  So, the dollar is on its own for the first part of this week, and that usually means that Gold does well, but then gets the snot knocked out of it by the price manipulators…  This pattern has gone on for so long now, one could set their watch by it…

To recap… It was a bad end of the week last week for labor prints, as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims increased last week, and the November Jobs jamboree showed that only 210,000 jobs were created last month… The markets did a “will Powell pivot” reaction, and sold the dollar, and Gold was able to gain on the day… And believe it or don’t, but Silver gained on the day!  Chuck is yelling at the walls this morning about a report that G20 countries need to add to debt to help smaller nations… And the data cupboard is empty today…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, Saturday’s letter from Ed Steer, produced today’s FWIW article… This was a entry from Doug Noland, about the Fed… And it’s well worth the read, folks…  and it can be found here:Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Walk the Walk

Or, here’s your snippet: “Chair Powell (and the Fed) stepped away from the ledge. Their dismissive approach to inflation risk was both untenable and an increasing embarrassment. Institutional credibility has taken a major hit, while attempts to repair the damage will have the Fed “talking the talk” of a traditional central bank focus on stable prices and financial stability.

It’s been a while (1994), since inflation concerns spurred the Fed to tighten financial conditions. Will the Fed actually prioritize its stable prices mandate above other considerations, most prominently the level of securities prices? Will the Fed – or even can they – “walk the walk” in reining in consumer inflation at the expense of bursting securities and asset Bubbles?

There’s no doubt that neglect has left the Fed hopelessly “behind the curve”. Conventional thinking today has it that the Federal Reserve will be forced into more aggressive tightening measures, to the detriment of booming markets and the economic expansion.

Mohamed El-Erian: “The problem now is that such a late wake-up to the reality of inflation increases the risks of mismanaging its policy catch-up process, exposing the economy to a higher risk of an unnecessary, Fed-induced slowdown.”

“Slamming on the brakes” is undoubtedly out of the question. Moreover, there is now significant risk associated with the Fed’s attempt to revive its inflation fighting credentials. And count me skeptical a “jolt” will help with the Fed’s credibility problem. Mainly, I see a greater unappreciated risk: Faltering U.S. and global markets will be putting intense pressure on the Fed (and central bank community) to again stabilize markets with large liquidity injections. Will the Fed “walk the walk” on reining in inflation when bursting speculative Bubbles beckon for another bout of aggressive monetary support? Ten-year Treasury yields, this week dropping 13 bps to 1.35%, are not signaling a hawkish rate tightening cycle.”

Chuck again… As I said before, Doug Noland is highly thought of by Ed Steer, so that means I’m in the same camp!  And Mohamed El-Erian is always someone who should be listened to… So, two headliners in one article!

Market Prices 12/6/2021: American Style: A$ .7039,  kiwi .6757, C$ .7814, euro 1.1295, sterling 1.3257, Swiss $1.0839, European Style: rand 15.9618, krone 9.1190, SEK 9.0960,  forint 322.65,  zloty 4.0696,  koruna 22.5113, RUB 73.91, yen 113.20, sing 1.3690, HKD 7.8005, INR 75.35, China 6.3754, peso 21.27, BRL 5.6517,  BBDXY 1,185.40, Dollar Index 96.25,  Oil $68.22, 10-year 1.38%, Silver $22.36, Platinum $941.00, Palladium $1,844.00, Copper $4.32, and Gold… $1,779.50

That’s it for today… My beloved Missouri Tigers football team will play in the Armed Forces Bowl, against Army.  Not a good matchup for them… They had a so-so year, not as good as thought it would be, but, still better than the average bear! Last year’s bowl game was cancelled by COVID, so hopefully this game will be played…  Well, if you missed the SEC Championship Game, don’t fret, for most likely it will be replayed for the National Championship…  At least that’s how I see it playing out… I head to the dentist later today, for that minor procedure I talked about previously, and that means I get to see my dentist, the fabulous, Holly Ellis!  Little Evie was here with us on Thursday last week… We played outside for awhile, she is just so darn cute! I bought a new Christmas CD.. The Winter Romance CD by Beegie Adair, and I’ve played it about 10 times already!  The house is all dressed up for Christmas… I love it when that happens! And I get so sad when it has to come down and get put away!  Oh well… with that Meryl Guneyman takes us to the finish line today with her version of the song: Christmas Is Here…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

December 2, 2021

* Currencies and Silver get sold on Wednesday… 

* Gold hangs onto some of its gains on Wednesday

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I was so worked up yesterday about what had happened the day before that when I went to the doctor, my blood pressure was the highest it’s been in two years! No worries, it was taken again later, and it was back to normal… And the rest of the visit was normal too, no biggie… I’m glad of that folks, for sure! The nurses were all wishing me a great winter in Florida…  I said, thanks, but I still have to get through this month! I missed going to lunch with my buddy Duane yesterday, as I was at the doctor’s office forever it seemed…  Kathy was decorating the tree yesterday, so I decided to cook dinner… And it was quite yummy! I remember when the kids were young and we all participated in decorating the tree… But since they’ve grown up and out of the house, Kathy gets to decorate it the way she wants it decorated, and I stay away from the proceedings!   On Sirius XM they did a poll of listeners and came up with the TOP 25 greatest listener Christmas Songs, and right now I’m listening to Gene Autry singing Frosty The Snowman…

Well, the goings on in the markets on Tuesday was one for the ages… And we didn’t experience anything like that yesterday, even though the price manipulators in metals were still hanging around, and taking their pound of flesh from Silver…  The dollar basically drifted yesterday, until late in the day when it got moving  higher as the day went on as illustrated by the BBDXY which started the day at 1,181.79, and ended the day at 1,184.30…  The euro remained above 1.13, and the real movement was in the Petrol Currencies of Norway, Canada, Mexico who saw weakness that coincided with the price of Oil dropping daily it seems… 

The Russian ruble gained on the day, as did the Brazilian real…  I would think that their higher interest rates are what’s keeping them from dropping along with Oil…  But if Oil continues to drop, in price, the drop will weigh on these higher yielding currencies too…

Gold found a way to hang onto its early gains yesterday.. At one point in the day Gold was 1,793.20, but had to hang on for its life to show a gain of $6.90, and close the day at $1,782.70… Silver on the other hand has to be wondering what the price manipulators have against Silver! Silver lost 55-cents on the day and closed below $23 at $22.40…  Why on earth are these guys going after Silver like they do? Because they can… 

The price of Oil lost more ground yesterday and trades this morning with a $65 handle… And Bonds got bought again yesterday with the 10-year’s yield dropping to 1.42%…  I have a good comparison of bonds and Gold for you in a bit, but first…

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got sold to the tune of a couple of figures off the BBDXY, which closed yesterday at 1,184.30, and trades this morning at 1,182.09… I wonder what traders have in mind for the dollar today… there are little grenades ready to be thrown at the dollar on all fronts, but so far the green/peachback has alluded them… So, we shall see… Gold is down $2.70 in the early trading, and in a site that I’ve not seen in a few days, Silver is actually up 15-cents this morning! 

There was news yesterday that the Irish Central Bank made their first purchase of Gold since 2009, when they bought 2 Tons of physical Gold for their reserves… Again I want to point out something that should be pushing Gold to the moon… Central Banks continue to buy physical Gold, and you know what they don’t buy don’t you? Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency… It’s as if they know that there will be regulation in the future that bans cryptocurrencies, other than the ones that each nation issues… I’m just saying… 

I get so worked up when I hear people say that Bitcoin is a reserve currency…   Oh well, enough of that..

And another thing that should be pushing the price of Gold higher by the day, is a geopolitical problem… The Russian President issued a warning to NATO to not cross their red line in Ukraine… YIKES…  In the past, whenever there were sabers rattling causing geopolitical problems Gold would rise, along with the Swiss franc… 

Gold keeps trying to take off to higher levels, but each time it looks like its ready to take off, it gets whacked back down, by the price manipulators…

The Swiss franc still has negative rates, and that has been holding the franc back… But if the ECB ever gets off their duffs and hikes rates before inflation gets out of hand in the Eurozone, I would think that the Swiss National Bank would follow the ECB’s rate hike with one of their own… I would have to say that in my younger days I would have gone out on a limb and said that an investor should look to buy francs for future movements…   But since 2007, I don’t go out on limbs, don’t climb ladders, and don’t run for my life…  So, take that as you might…

Well, inflation seems to be on the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s minds these days… Too bad they waited several months to acknowledge they were wrong…  Jerome Power said that he thought is was time to retire the term Transitory, and come up with something else to explain their position… 

Well, you know me and how I can be real smart a…  And so I’m going to put on the Smart A.. hat now, and say that Powell, wants to come up some other lie that they can concoct to confuse us, which they been doing for years.. .Remember Greenspeak?  Ahhh, now I see said the blindman as he spit into the wind, it’s all coming back to me now!

Speaking of Inflation, here in the Missouri, our natural gas provider, Spire, issued a warning yesterday that gas prices could be 25% higher this winter…  Well, I guess I’m happy about going to S. Florida for the winter, even more now!

I received this email from the good folks at GATA yesterday, and I’m going to give you the whole email… USAGold’s “News & Views” letter for December examines how the U.S. Treasury bond market is now almost entirely a creature of the Federal reserve, which has been monetizing most of the federal government debt undertaken in the last decade.

Gold, the letter suggests, quoting market analyst Charlie Morris, is a sort of bond itself, and a much more attractive one because:

— It is a zero-coupon because it pays no interest.

— It has a long duration because it lasts forever.

— It is inflation-linked, as historic purchasing power has demonstrated.

— It has zero credit risk, assuming it is held in physical form.

— It was issued by God.

Maybe that’s why governments and central banks feel so obliged to manipulate the gold price — to weaken its competition with government-issued bonds.

The USAGold “News & Views” letter for Dece mber is headlined “The Masters of the Universe and Gold” and it’s posted here:

https://www.usagold.com/nv1036decemberer2021/

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment Report for November, and while it was weaker than the previous month, it beat the expectations, so it was 6 of one and one half dozen of another…  And the ISM Manufacturing Index came in better than last month’s 60.8, bettering that number with a 61.1 print…

I told you that the powers that be wouldn’t have any of that stuff of a weaker ISM…  I mean, we have a shipping backup, a supply chain disruption, and the great resignation among us, and they expect us to believe that manufacturing plants are running at full steam?  Hey, I was born… Just wasn’t born yesterday!

Today’s Data Cupboard just has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… remember last week was a shortened Holiday week, so the number could be really skewed…

To recap… The dollar rallied late in the day yesterday, and so did Gold, but Silver got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair…  Oil got sold downward again, and for some unknown reason, since David Rosenberg told us the short position close outs had been exhausted, yield should be rising, not falling…  Chuck has a comparison of bonds and Gold for you today…

For What It’s Worth… It was a slow news day for me yesterday, and I was forced to use this article that was Bloomberg.com that highlights Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel head, Mester, talking about her wishes are to taper faster, so a rate hike can be made sooner next year, and it can be found here: Fed’s Mester Open to Faster Taper to Win Space for Rate Hike – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said she is “very open” to scaling back the Fed’s asset purchases at a faster pace so it can raise interest rates a couple of times next year if needed.

“Making the taper faster is definitely buying insurance and optionality so that if inflation doesn’t move back down significantly next year we’re in a position to be able hike if we have to,” Mester said in an interview with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Television Wednesday. She said that recent data “have come in supportive of that case, so I’m very open to considering a faster pace of tapering.”

The U.S. central bank is currently set to phase out its asset-purchase program in mid-2022 under a plan announced at the start of November to slow buying by $15 billion a month. But the Fed could vote to accelerate the taper process to curb inflation, which has been accelerating in recent months and has become more persistent than forecasters, including those at the central bank, once expected.

“Right now, with the inflation data the way it is and with the job market as strong as it is, I do think that we have to be in a position that if we need to raise rates a couple of times next year we’re able to do that,” said Mester, who votes on policy next year.

Asked if she favors quickening the taper so it ends in March, Mester said that right now, she would support completing the wind-down in the first quarter or early in the second quarter “given what we know about the economy.”

Chuck again…  So, here’s Chuck’s take on this desire to taper faster… They don’t want to own bonds with low yields when they have to hike rates, for it would cause them to have to book paper losses…  And…. I’m still of the opinion that they will stop tapering long before they get to the end… The stock market is begging for some help once again, and don’t you see Jerome Powell riding in on his white steed to save the stock jockeys?    The Bears say we have Omicron, the Bulls say, we have Powell…  (I saw that on Twitter!)

Market Prices 12/2/2021: American Style: A$ .7100,  kiwi .6808, C$ .7802, euro 1.1342, sterling 1.3321, Swiss $1.0882, European Style: rand 15.8511, krone 9.0770, SEK 9.0548,  forint 319.39,  zloty 4.0527,  koruna 22.4081, RUB 74.00, yen 112.88, sing 1.3672, HKD 7.7931, INR 74.95, China 6.3659, peso 21.36, BRL 5.6345,  BBDXY 1,182.09, Dollar Index 95.86,  Oil $65.40, 10-year 1.42%, Silver $22.55, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $1,828.00, Copper $4.34, and Gold… $1,780.00

That’s it for today… And of course this week… Haven’t the last two weeks gone by in flash? I mean Suddenly the Christmas decorations are going up, and I’m trying to decide when I’ll be heading to Florida this year! I don’t have one gift bought, no wait, I do have some books for my boys, boy will they be excited about that! HA! I heard my new fave Christmas song: Winter Romance again last night, and I looked up the lyrics and sang along…  Another new fave is a song titled: Snowfall… Beegie Adair does that one too! The Big College Conference Championship Games are this weekend, and afterward, we’ll pretty much know who’s in, for the playoffs… Only 4 teams make the playoffs… There’s always a team or two that get’s left out, that thinks they deserve to be in the playoffs… It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas…  At least around here it is! I’ve switched back to my Pandora Smooth Jazz Christmas station, and the Jack Jezzro Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: the Christmas Dance…   I hope you can have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to day, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

 

December 1, 2021

* Currencies & metals’ rallies get reversed on Tuesday

* Powell throws a cat among the pigeons!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!… And Welcome to December! It was another game last night where the Blues couldn’t be watched anywhere unless you have ESPN+, or HULU, and since I don’t like to pay for extra stations, I had to settle for listening to the game on the radio… Our Blues won the game 4-3 in a shootout, which I’ll say yet again, is the stupidest way to settle the outcome of a game… I read my latest book, and listened to the game… I was looking for someone to console me after the goings on in the markets yesterday… We’ll get to that in a moment, but first the The David Ian Trio greets me this morning with their version of : We Three Kings…

What the h… happened yesterday?  After hitting send yesterday, I watched Gold climb the ladder to a gain of more than $24 on the day… And then… the spring trap was sprung and Gold ended up down $9.70!    That’s a more than $33 turnaround! Now, don’t even begin to tell me that this wasn’t a case of price manipulation…  How can Gold be the cat’s meow one minute and the next minute be the cat’s litter box, without price manipulation…  Sure there could have been profit taking by short term traders but not to the tune of a $33 turnaround!  No sireee Bob! Can’t happen like that, no way, that dog is not gonna hunt!

And the dollar turned around too.. .at one point yesterday morning the BBDXY was down 8 points! But ended the day still down on the day, but not by much… So, the PPT was in throwing the ESF’s treasure chest of funds, around too… This was a day for the ages folks… the price manipulation of the metals and the dollar were beyond comprehension… I sat there last night, after turning the computer to see how high Gold got, only to be flabbergasted at what I was seeing, and said to myself, “I just don’t think I can take much more of this”…

But that would mean I quit writing, and you know me… I can’t do that! A few months ago I said that I wasn’t going to give the price manipulators any thought any longer… But that didn’t last, and here I am, rock you like a hurricane, no wait! Here I am trying to put the pieces back together after another engineered takedown…  So, don’t worry, I’m not going to quit writing… I’m not going to let these sons of beekeepers win!

For the record, Gold ended up down $9.70 on the day to close at $1,775.80, and Silver ended up down 3-cents on the day, to close at $22.95… The BBDXY which started the day at 1,182.54, ended the day, after being down over 8 points, at 1,182.66…  Oil fell further yesterday, as the fear of lockdowns, no traveling, etc. from the new Omicron variant, has really spooked Oil traders and investors… The price of Oil fell to $67.23…  Stocks fell 652 points in the Dow, and 245 points in the NASDAQ, while bonds finally saw some selling and lost ground on the day.

The thing that everyone was pointing to as the reason for the stock sell off was the flip flop that Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman Powell made with regards to his outlook for Inflation, and that he will have to move up the timeline for a rate hike…  I get it, he said he was moving up the timing of his rate hike, but he didn’t say to what date, or by how much…  I’m just questioning this as the big mover…

But everyone just needs to calm down here…  When Powell says he will move up the timing of a rate hike, it doesn’t mean that he’s going to turn into Paul Volcker!  Trust me on this one folks, The boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg, will hike rates 25 basis points, and then another 25 basis point, and that’s going to be about it, because…. Well, I’ve been through this many times in the past, and the increases in bond yields means more expensive bond servicing. And since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel has basically been THE Bond Market in the past few years, that bond servicing cost increase is all theirs!

And so, then the Gov’t see’s the Fed’s dilemma and decides to turn the printing presses back on, but all that does is fuel inflation higher…   Talk about a rock and hard place….  That’s where the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and the Gov’t is right now, folks…

And we’re not talking about rocket scientists calling the shots here folks… We’re talking about our elected officials…  I found this on Twitter yesterday, and it’s a quote from Spike Cohen who  had this to say, “ Government is a collection of some of the dumbest and most dishonest people among us, empowered to make decisions that they exempt themselves from, and pay for all of it by running up debts for the rest of us to pay off” Spike Cohen on Twitter…

On Thursday this week, Dennis Miller’s www.milleronthemoney.com letter will feature an interview with me!  We talk about how it’s going to take someone radical to change the course the country is on…  I say, “they could ask me, but it would be just like when my wife or kids ask me something, and then do the opposite”  I’ve told you this before so this is not a spoiler alert for his letter, but I would 1. Stop deficit spending not in 5 years, not in 3 years, but NOW!  2. Stop currency printing, NOW! No more stimulus, don’t they see what continual stimulus packages have done to the finances of Japan? 

So, if you’re not already a subscriber to Dennis’ letter, visit his website on Thursday, and see what I had to say in response to his questions… again, it’s www.milleronthemoney.com

In the overnight markets last night… The markets leaned toward selling the dollar, and the BBDXY is down to 1,181.79 this morning… Not a huge downward movement, but a downward movement nonetheless. Gold is up $13 in the early trading, and Silver has added a wooden nickel to its price to move back to $23 this morning.  But what difference does it make? The price manipulators will just take that $13 gain and make it disappear in the blink of an eye…  I’m really jaded this morning with regards to the suppression of Gold & Silver…   

In the Eurozone yesterday, they printed their November, Euro area core HICP inflation. And it rose  to 2.63% yoy, sharply above consensus expectations of 2.3% and up from last month’s 2.05% to a new all time high. Meanwhile, headline HICP inflation soared  to 4.88%Y/Y from 4.0%, also well above consensus expectations of a 4.50% print and also a new record high. 

And the timing of that report couldn’t have been better, for the European Central Bank (ECB) meets tomorrow… At the last ECB meeting, President, Christine Lagarde made it clear that the ECB was not going to be fooled by the transitory inflation… I wonder if the ECB has different thoughts now that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel has come around to seeing the inflation light?  

The U.S., Eurozone, U.K. and Japan are all in on this debt accumulation Ponzi scheme, and all know that it would be better to allow inflation to rise, but the problem with that is that the citizens of each nation, aren’t participating in this Ponzi scheme, and they are screaming at their representatives  to do something about it or they’ll get booted out at the next election… And so suddenly, Jerome Powell, sees the inflation for what it is, and it’s not Transitory!  I don’t think that Powell would have made this discovery if he hadn’t been getting pressure from the elected officials to do something about the inflation…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Sept. Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) and it rose 19.5% from a year ago in Sept… The Stupid Consumer Confidence showed a decline this month from 111.6 last month to 109.5% this month…  I would have thought this data would be much weaker, but we haven’t heard much about end date of the extension to the debt talks that is supposed to end !2/3…

Today’s Data Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report for Nov. , the ISM Manufacturing Index, and Rocktober’s Construction Spending, prints… Not really anything to write home about, unless that is the ISM shows a deep drop, but there’s no way the powers that be will allow that to happen, so we’ll just move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for…

To Recap…  Chuck used to say this… Jerome Powell threw a cat among the pigeons!  He mentioned that he now sees inflation as a problem and will have to move the timing of a rate hike up… This is what the price manipulators needed to hear, because now they could go in with both barrels blazing and bring to an end the rallies that were going on in the metals and currencies… Chuck talks about all of that, and gives us a sneak preview of his interview that will appear in Dennis Miller’s www.milleronthemoney.com  letter tomorrow… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me by way of the good Folks at GATA, and it features someone that I’ve highlighted in the FWIW section previously, Matthew Piepenburg, of Gold Switzerland… Matthew is talking about The Fed’s latest blunder, and it can be found here: From Gold Manipulation to DC’s Latest Lies, Absolute Distortion Continues – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland

Or, here’s your snippet: “In a recent report from The Hill, we discover that the Biden advisory team is now accepting that inflation is not only a financial reality (rather than “transitory blip”), but far more importantly (to them), a political problem.

It will come as no surprise to many that politics and politicians are driven by re-election not candid honesty, and certainly not economic expertise or even a rudimentary grasp of financial (or even grade school) history.

Unfortunately for the self-preservation-driven dunces helming our financial Titanic, the math of inflation can no longer be masked with more words.

In short, and given rapidly falling poll numbers, the White House has to rev up its “inflation strategy.”

D.C.’s Comical Inflation Strategy

And if you are hoping it’s going to be an effective strategy, well…please: Don’t hold your breath.

In fact–and we promise that we are not making this up–the Biden administration’s answer to the inflation problem (which is driven and defined by too much money in the system) boils down to this: Spending and creating more money.

Really?

Yes. Really

The economic advisors actually maintain that the new Biden spending package will, “not add to inflationary pressures,” and effectively “pay for itself.”

As I like to say: That’s rich.

If anyone on the White House staff took economics in high school or read a single case-study on prior inflationary cycles, they would know better; but for now, the lords are hoping that the serfs won’t know any better either.

But folks, here’s a spoiler alert: Expanding spending with expanded money creation is the very essence of inflation.

Then again, and as we’ve warned for months, politicians say one thing and mean another.”

No shocker there.”

Chuck Again… Basically the same thing I’ve been telling you, but today you get to hear from someone other than me… And, someone that should be listened to!

Market Prices 12/1/2021: American Style: A$ .7151,  kiwi .6844,  C$ .7847, euro 1.1322, sterling 1.3325, Swiss $1.0856, European Style: rand 15.8189, krone 9.0293, SEK 9.0316,  forint 321.44,  zloty 4.0892,  koruna 22.4859, RUB 74.43, yen 113.33, sing 1.3626, HKD 7.7931, INR 74.86, China 6.3686, peso 21.27, BRL 5.6106,  BBDXY 1,181.79, Dollar Index 95.97,  Oil $69.10, 10-year 1.47%, Silver $23.00, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $1,852.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $1,789.20

That’s it for today… I go to see my oncologist later this morning, for the my last time for the next 3 months… Then later tonight I go for my booster… I’m not sure why I’m doing this, it just seemed like the right thing to do, given my weakened immune system…  I have 3 medical appointments this month still to come! They all want to see me before I leave for 3 months! Either that or they will all miss me while I’m gone… I’m betting it’s the former of the two… Today is the end of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in Baseball, which means that a lockout begins today, so that everyone can concentrate on getting a new deal done before Valentine’s Day… If they don’t, then Spring Training will be delayed, setting baseball behind the 8 ball…  I don’t think the fans on the fence for baseball will come back to the game if there’s a delayed start of the season…  I’m just saying… not that anyone from the players union or owners group reads the Pfennig!  They should, but that’s a different story… Fourplay takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry Christmas…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

November 30, 2021

* Currencies & Metals get sold on Monday… 

* Is There a shortage of physical Silver? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It appears that we’re in for a week of warmer than usual weather this week… I sat outside to read for about an hour yesterday, it was chilly, but the sun felt warm…  Tomorrow we turn the calendar to December… And with December comes, not only Christmas and New Year’s Eve, but also Chuck’s annual winter vacation! YAHOO! Not to worry, it’s not going to start until December 17^th, and will end on December 27… I plan to write my usual Christmas Pfennig, so look for that while I’m on vacation… My wife asked me, how does one go on vacation when they are retired?  Ahhh, grasshopper, I said, I still work every day doing reading and research…  She thought she was being a smarty pants, but I stopped that! HAHAHAHA The Al Daniels Holiday Jazz Piano group greets me this morning with their version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry…

Well, when I left you yesterday, Gold & Silver were up slightly to start the day, but that didn’t take long to end, and the dollar had been bought throughout the night in the overnight markets, and that buying stopped in the U.S. session yesterday… The dollar didn’t get sold either… it did nothing all day, and just drifted on the open ocean… It was a real “nothing” day in the markets that I get giddy about… For the record, Gold closed down $7.30 to end the day at $1,785.50, and Silver closed the day down 21-cents to end the day at $22.98… 

That’s a pretty paltry number attached to Silver isn’t it? What the price manipulators have done to the metals, especially Silver, has been murderous… I don’t use that term lightly, but they pretty much have scared any investor in these metals into either 1. Not buying, or 2. Selling with fear of further drops… I would really like to line these guys and gals up and string them from their toes, and leave them in the cold! But… It’s the Christmas season, so I’m not supposed to have these kinds of thoughts…  But I can’t help myself! I guess some coal in my stocking is in my future, eh?

Stocks rebounded from that huge loss on Friday and Bonds continued to get bought… By whom, is anyone’s guess… Prior to tapering, you could have said that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was behind the buying and you would have been correct most of the time. But supposedly they aren’t in the bond buying mood these days, so who’s buying these bonds at negative “real yield”?  The Treasury’s 10-year yield dropped from 1.54% yesterday morning to 1.50% at the end of the day…  So, what these people are saying is that interest rates in the next 10 years are not going to rise…  Are they crazy?  Disillusioned?   So, what will it be door 1, 2, or 3?   Johnny? Thank you for playing there’s nice parting gift for you at the door!

But wait! We have a Winner! The well respected economist, David Rosenberg, had this to say about the bond rally on Twitter: “Everyone is wondering why Treasuries are performing so great but bond rallies always happen after the net speculative short position gets as high as today – 243k contracts – the sharpest negative bet against the 10-yr T-note since Nov/19. The shorts have exhausted themselves.” – David Rosenberg on Twitter…

So, maybe it wasn’t a lot of bond buying for dummies going on, but short covering instead, which if that is what caused the rally, then yields should turn right around and head higher again soon… But I still contend that there is a lot of bond buying by dummies going on… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar has gotten ambushed overnight… The BBDXY, which ended yesterday at 1,187.38, has dropped to 1,182.54 early this morning… The euro is well above the 1.13 handle once again, and Gold is up $10 in early trading… Silver is down another 10-cents this morning…  And there was more bond buying overnight,  with the 10-year’s yield falling to 1.44%…   And I just saw come across the screen that the stock index futures are down BIG… That doesn’t bode well for a stock market rally today… 

It seems that traders and investors are more scared of the Omicron variant than the CDC or WHO… 

In, friend, Dave Gonigam’s 5 Minute Forecast yesterday, he put down a thought on the Fed’s Minutes that were released last Wednesday, so here’s Dave: “The gist was a way-too-late acknowledgment that “Golly gee, inflation isn’t receding in the way we expected a few months ago.” Thus, we’re told some of the Fed pooh-bahs advocated a faster pace of “tapering” back on the Fed’s bond purchases — beyond the $15 billion a month taking place now”

Chuck again… Can you believe that there are still economists that are still saying that we are in deflation and not inflation?  And some that just won’t admit they were wrong about inflation… But admitting you were wrong now, is a lot like the guy who’s main objective was to drain the swamp, but finds himself up to his rear in alligators!

Last week I made a point of saying that I never believed the Gov’t’s explanation of the assassination of President Kennedy… And now I read the Oliver Stone, has made a new documentary about the whole thing…  Showtime, it airing it… I don’t get Showtime, as I’ve said before I don’t like paying extra for stations… Eventually it will be a YOUTUBE, and I’ll watch it then…

Well, there’s nothing to fear here folks, the medical people tell us that the new COVID Variant, Omicron, isn’t to be feared ala the Delta variant…  Now, they’ve got me worried… Because it was these same people that told us in March 2020, we would flatten the curve with the shut down in two weeks…  UGH!  OK… the markets seemed to be over their worry about the variant, but then they’ve been over it since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel started their stimulus, and the Gov’t began sending out stimmy checks…   But that was yesterday, today, it seems the variant is on the market’s collective minds… Hmmm..   C’MON pick a lane! 

Oh, and one more thing about Silver… The U.S. Mint announced that the minting of the Silver Eagles for 2021 was complete… To that, Ed Steer, had this to say in his letter today, “Well, dear reader, this is awfully early for them to be cutting off yearly production.  Normally it ends about ten days or so into December. But with physical silver in such short supply, I’m sure that the order came down from someone inside the U.S. Treasury to put a stop to it early…” – Ed Steer

And that, my friends is a great example of the price manipulation, and we can go back to high school economics… Shortages = price increases… But what has Silver done lately? It’s gotten sold… nearly every day… I know I’ve shared this with you before, but it’s so appropriate here… My dad taught me long ago, that there’s no such thing as a shortage, it’s merely something that’s in need of a price adjustment….  So… when’s the price adjustment upward coming for Silver?  Only the Shadow Knows…

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still pretty empty today, with just the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), and the stupid Consumer Confidence report this month…  I expect that the HPI will continue to show increases…  Remember what I told you yesterday, that the brunt of the data prints will come at the end of the week, with a Jobs jamboree… which right now has a forecast of 581,000 jobs created in November… 

To recap… The dollar did little yesterday, as it didn’t get bought or sold, and ended the day up only because of the upward move in the overnight markets… Gold & Silver were sold once again, there’s just no safe days for the metals from the price manipulators…  Chuck goes bananas on bond buyers only to learn that the bond buying was short covering, per David Rosenberg… And the markets shrugged off the new COVID Variant, Omicron… Doesn’t that just make you a little nervous, considering how wrong the authorities have been with all of this? In the overnight markets the dollar got sold Big time, and stock index futures are down BIG this morning, so maybe, just maybe, someone is scared of the new variant! 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, longtime readers know how I feel about education in colleges today…. And it has filtered over to our evening news programs… The Battle as I see it going forward in the U.S. is going to be between those who learned how to think versus those who were taught and dutifully learned what to think, with the latter of the two combatants coming from today’s colleges, and probably High Schools now too…  My oldest son, Andrew, is a high school educator, and he tells me that in his school, they still require kids to think on their own…  My daughter, Dawn, is a kindergarten teacher, so she doesn’t have to deal with anything but the ABC’s and teaching kids to keep their hands to themselves!

I really do feel badly for these youngsters that have had someone else do their thinking for them… Sure, they thought that was a good deal, the less they had to worry about, but they didn’t what they didn’t know was that their ability to think for themselves, and call out things that are wrong, never came to them… So, now they watch the news, listen to their professors and act accordingly…  These, youngsters are tomorrow’s leaders, unfortunately!

For What It’s Worth…  Egon Von Greyerz, and Ronni Stoeferle, sit down to discuss Gold’s position in the future of finance… Of course I’ve explained over the years that Gold is a store of wealth, but it may be become even more than that considering all the rot on the world’s vine right now. Part 1 of this article can be found here: Part I: All Taboos Broken—von Greyerz & Ronni Stoeferle Discuss Gold’s Role in a Changing Financial System – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland

Or, here’s your snippet: “As two of the world’s leading authorities on precious metals, von Greyerz and Stoeferle offer invaluable insights on the key issues related to precious metal investing in the backdrop of central-bank-driven market forces.

Egon and Ronni discuss their individual journeys toward recognizing the timeless, paramount, yet oft ignored, role that gold plays in intelligent wealth preservation and risk hedging in a market landscape that is becoming increasingly centralized. As Ronni observes, real capitalism requires failure, or what the Austrian School of Economics would describe as “constructive destruction.” Today, however, central banks have “broken all taboos” to provide instant liquidity whenever the market begins to crack.

Such “support,” which will likely include direct equity purchases and yield-caps by central banks, can buy markets more time, but such measures only make the end result far more perilous. As Egon reminds, the recent “Fed taper” was essentially a “fake taper.” Whether that is understood by the markets, however, is another matter, and Ronni discusses the risks and optics of “tapering” into a weak economy.

As for rate discussions in the backdrop of rising inflation, each discuss the conundrum central banks have placed themselves. The bottom line: It’s too late. There is no way to have a “Volker-like” rate hike in a world saturated in debt. A re-set of the monetary system is thus historically inevitable. This transition phase makes gold ownership essential. Ronni Stoeferle strongly believes that gold will play a monetary role again.

As to currencies, Egon bluntly addresses the central bank failure in allowing global debt levels to surpass $300T. History confirms the currency debasement needed to “cover” that debt points to gold.

As monetary policies reach an exhaustion point, fiscal policies (i.e., deficit spending) are becoming the newest drug for hubris-infected political actors forever seeking to outlaw recessions. All these stimulus packages, of course, require money, most likely to be in the form of CBDC. This raises numerous civil and economic concerns, as central bank money increases central bank controls over individual spending.”

Chuck again… Yes, I know the snippet is very long today, but the article is even longer, and I wanted to get it in the letter as much as I could!   Check out the link above for more very intellectual and well thought out discussion between these two gentlemen…

Market Prices 11/30/2021: American Style: A$ .7133,  kiwi .6822, C$ .7825, euro 1.1355, sterling 1.3345, Swiss $1.0893, European Style: rand 16.0413, krone 9.0565, SEK 9.0605,  forint 323.17,  zloty 4.1172,  koruna 22.4921, RUB 74.74, yen 112.89, sing 1.3668, HKD 7.7971, INR 75.05, China 6.3845, peso 21.61, BRL 5.5837,  BBDXY 1,182.54, Dollar Index 95.76,  Oil $68.25, 10-year 1.44%, Silver $22.88, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $1,892.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $1,795.80

That’s it for today… Well, I guess having an undefeated season so far this year, doesn’t mean you get to play the tournament’s games at home! The St. Louis Univ. Billikens soccer team will have to travel next to Washington to play in the Semifinals…  UGH! Our Blues play the first of a home and away series with Tampa Bay tonight… They play 82 regular season games, and have 32 Teams, I really don’t get why they have to play back-to-back games…  Lots of birthdays in the month of December, I hope I can remember them all… There’s one I know I won’t forget, and that’s Kathy’s Birthday, which is the day after Christmas!  And then once Christmas is over, it’ll be time to head south for the winter… I’m ready to go now! And it’s not even as cold as it could be! Jack Jezzro and Friends take us to the finish line today with their bossa nova sounding version of the song: Toyland… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

November 29, 2021

* Currencies & Gold rally on Friday in thin volume… 

* The Dollar Tree is now the $1.25 Tree… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I trust you all had a very Blessed Thanksgiving? I did, and enjoyed seeing everyone once again… I was sad to hear that son Andrew, and his family, which includes my little Evie, would not be with us this year, at it was the year where they went to his wife’s (Rachel) mom’s for Thanksgiving… And that brought me back to old memories of the arguments Kathy and I used to get into about who’s house we would be going to on Thanksgiving…  But those all ended, thankfully, when I decided that we would host Thanksgiving at our house every year, and from then on… things have gone beautifully!  Silly things, that aren’t worth arguing about, eh? I made a typo error on Wednesday last week, I mentioned that I loved the song Winter Romance by Beegie Adair, but I typed Adams… UGH!  Well, she’s playing again this morning, her version of the song: Little Drummer Boy

Well, when I left you last week on Wednesday, the dollar was kicking tail and taking names later, and there appeared to be nothing to stop it.. .The BBDXY  on Wednesday closed at 1,190.43 up a lot from the beginning of the week… I had mentioned on Wednesday that the Datapalooza which took place on Wednesday could spell the end of the dollar buying…  Well, it took a day for that to happen, and on Wednesday it appeared that I was barking up the wrong tree… But after Thursday’s non-event market goings on, because of the U.S. Holiday, Friday came along, and PFFT, went the dollar buying.. So maybe Chuck was right, and it just took a days for it to come to fruition…  But probably not… Because there was something afoot in the markets on Friday… So, let’s go to the tape!

On Friday, with the markets pretty thin, as most senior traders were taking a 4 day holiday weekend, there came news that a new COVID Variant “Omicron” was spreading in S. Africa, and the markets went bananas… Stocks got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, Oil got sold down by $10, the biggest one-day drop since spring of 2020… The cryptocurrencies got sold,  and…. The dollar got sold…  The scare in the markets really pushed investors to run to bonds, which is just stranger than fiction to me, because who wants a bond that’s paying negative yield when you count inflation… But to each his own, right?  

Gold was bought on Friday, in some very thin volume, and ended the day up $3.40 to end the week at $1,792.80… Silver just can’t find a bid anywhere these days folks… the common man’s Gold ended the week at $23.19. 

The currencies, by virtue of the dollar selling found a rally deep inside the trading pits, with the euro finding its way back above 1.13… I don’t know if it’s time to come out, come out, wherever you are, like the good witch, Glinda, said to the munchkins, but this week will tell us if that is to be or not… But at least a tourniquet was wrapped around the bleeding currencies on Friday…  And there’s not much in the way of real economic data this week, until we get to Friday, so let’s see how the dollar fares…

In the overnight markets last night… Well, it appears to me that Friday’s trading was simply a case of light volume, and no real trading taking place, as the the dollar buying was reignited in the overnight markets last night.. The BBDXY rose to 1,1187, and the euro fell back below 1.13…  It will be interesting to see how the markets here in the U.S. feel about the Omnicron variant…  

The price of Oil rebounded a bit overnight, after taking on the selling that brought it down over $10 on Friday, Black Gold, Texas Tea, is up $3 and trades with a $71 handle this morning…  The selling of the S. African rand on Friday, due to the news of the new variant in their country,  and then again last night has been something to see… and not something good!  The Treasury’s 10-year yield has dropped to 1.54%, from last Wednesday’s 1.66%.. So, bonds were bought by the truckload, folks… 

Speaking of buying bonds… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s tapering does the exact opposite of buying bonds, and I’ve argued that I don’t see how the knuckleheads at the Eccles Building will be able to stay on the tapering course for too much longer…  And I’m not alone in that thought… I was scanning Twitter yesterday, and saw this quote from Stephanie Pomboy, of whom I really hold in high regard, for her knowledge of the markets and data… So, she was saying that she would wager a bet that the Fed will have to stop its tapering before they get to the end…    

There was also a point that she made about Retail Sales, which last week showed a rise of .9% in Rocktober… She said, that rise was brought on by higher prices, not increased sales…  Great Point! 

Ok… A couple of things that took place last week, while we stuffed ourselves with goodies… Dollar Tree, which has sold things for $1 for over 30 years, is raising their price to $1.25… Not that it’s the end of the world, just symbolic… But just shows to go ya, that inflation is hurting the common person, and not the elite… 

And this one really tore at me… I want to make this clear… I do NOT believe in tearing down statues to men that were an integral part of our history…  And so I was so distraught and angry when I read that in NYC they took down a statue of Thomas Jefferson…   Shame, Shame, Shame… 

And thanks to Tom Woods, who posted this in his letter on Friday, it’s a little history on Thomas Jefferson: “ Thomas Jefferson co-sponsored a 1769 bill to abolish slavery in Virginia, wrote the first draft of the law that banned slavery from the Midwest, called for and signed the law that abolished the international slave trade, wrote the most influential antislavery book in American history, drafted a bill (which failed by one vote in Congress) that would have banned slavery from most of today’s Deep South, and wrote the part of the Declaration of Independence that says “all men are created equal”

These people that think that they know all, and take down statues, make me sick… And that’s all I’ll say about that!

And finally… The St. Louis Post Dispatch ran an article on Thanksgiving showing the restaurant ads for Thanksgiving dinner in 1972….  You could get a full Turkey dinner with stuffing and all the trimmings and a piece of pumpkin pie, for…..  The whopping amount of $3.25…   We’ve come a long way from those days, now haven’t we? These days you probably wouldn’t be able to buy a slice of pumpkin pie for $3.25…  

I have some info on the new variant that spreading in S. Africa and how it affected the markets on Friday in the FWIW section today, compliments of Ed Steer… 

On Friday of this week we will hold the Jobs Jamboree for November… And I guess we have to count the seasonal workers for the Christmas shopping season in these numbers, but the thing I can’t get my arms around is the gigantic jobs creations each month, when on the other hand they are calling this the “Big Resignation”, with people quitting jobs left and right, and businesses having to close or shorten hours because they can’t find workers…

Like I said above, this week’s Data Cupboard is pretty empty most of the week…  Like today’s offering is just the Pending Home Sales report… Nothing to write home about for sure…

To recap… The dollar buying stopped on Friday, as a new COVID Variant spread throughout S. Africa, and spooked the markets with stocks getting sold, Oil getting sold, and the dollar getting sold… Investors bought bonds, for some reason unknown to the well educated, and Gold found some buyers in very light volume… Chuck goes out and puts some things down that are bothering him, and are you ready for a Jobs Jamboree?

For What It’s Worth… OK, I told you that I took this from Ed Steer’s letter, and it’s a blog posted by Doug Noland, of whom Ed thinks highly of, and so that means I do too!  This article about the Omnicron variant’s effect on the markets can be found here: Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Black Friday

Or, here’s your snippet: “I posted a link Thursday morning to a Bloomberg article, “New Coronavirus Variant a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa.” The seemingly small outbreak generated minimal media attention. Within 24 hours, however, global markets were in a tailspin, with Crisis Dynamics gaining critical momentum. The World Health Organization Friday in an emergency meeting designated the new B.1.1.529 – “Omicron” – a “variant of concern.”

Market reaction was swift and, in many cases, brutal. Pundits suggested panicked markets were overreacting. There is as yet no evidence of more severe symptoms from Omicron, and South Africa’s early recognition and communication offer the possibility of more successful global containment efforts. The U.K. and European Union moved quickly to restrict travel from South Africa, followed by Singapore, Japan, the U.S., Canada and others.

Once again, the wily Covid virus boasts ghostly timing. Omicron barges in with de-risking/deleveraging and global Crisis Dynamics attaining pivotal momentum. And with contagion rapidly enveloping the emerging markets (EM), disaster strikes for the vulnerable South African domino already in line for trouble.

The South African rand this week sank 3.4%, increasing 2021 losses to 9.8%. South African 10-year yields jumped 19 bps Friday (high since April 2020), boosting the week’s yield spike to 43 bps. South African CDS Friday surged 25 (43 for the week) to 252 bps – the high since March.

An index of EM CDS surged 19 Friday – the largest one-day rise since September 2020 – to 221 bps, the high back to October 2020. EM CDS surged 34 for the week, the biggest weekly gain since September 2020. Friday saw sovereign CDS surge 17.5 in Brazil to 268 bps (high since June 2020), 17.5 in Colombia to 218 bps (May 2020), and nine in Chile to 99 bps (May 2020). For the week, CDS jumped 26 bps in Brazil, 32 bps in Colombia, 27 bps in Mexico, and 11 bps in Indonesia.

The last thing Turkey needed was a stiff forearm shove toward a full-fledged financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira sank another 2.8% Friday, pushing losses for the week to 8.9% – for the month to 22.1% and for 2021 to about 40%. Turkey’s 10-year (lira) yields spiked 80 bps this week, trading above 20% for the first time since May 2019. Turkey CDS surged 28 Friday (58 for the week) to a one-year high 504 bps. For a country with a population of 84 million – that saw living standards and expectations inflate right along with its Credit Bubble – the collapse is turning increasingly desperate.

Mexico is another key EM domino – with self-inflicted wounds placing it directly in the line of fire.”

Chuck again… Yes, I read this past weekend that Turkish citizens are dumping their currency and using U.S. dollars instead…  That to me is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but like I said above, to each his own…

Market Prices 11/29/2021: American Style: A$ .7147,  kiwi .6817, C$ .7852, euro 1.1289, sterling 1.3346, Swiss $1.0814, European Style: rand 16.1676, krone 9.0508, SEK 9.1148,  forint 326.56,  zloty 4.1605,  koruna 22.7419, RUB 75.40, yen 113.58, sing 1.3685, HKD 7.7993, INR 75.00, China 6.3920, peso 21.87, BRL 5.6083,  BBDXY 1,187.22, Dollar Index 96.20,  Oil $71.68, 10-year 1.54%, Silver $23.34, Platinum $977.00, Palladium $1,868.00, Copper $4.39, and Gold… $1,794.30

That’s it for today… Congratulations to the St. Louis University Billikens soccer team, who have advanced to the Quarterfinals of the college soccer tournament.. . They had to travel to Duke and play the Blue Devils, but they prevailed 4-3… And remain undefeated this year!  Saturday’s college football games were something for sure! Very exciting games, and a spanner was thrown into the works of the college playoff committee…  I attended a “Movember Party” on Saturday… It was a fundraiser for Prostrate Cancer… Thanks for the invite Duane and Dane!  Well, we turn the calendar over to a new month on Wednesday… My most disliked month will come to an end, thankfully!  We had another couple of days of warmer weather this past weekend, so my dislike of cold weather is getting a break… Rosemary Clooney takes us to the finish line today with her version of the song: Let It Snow… . and that reminds me of one of my fave movies of all time: White Christmas…  Ok, I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

November 24, 2021

* currencies & metals get sold again on Tuesday

* The Aden Sisters drop by the Pfennig today… 

Good Day… And a Wild, Wacky, Wonderful Wednesday to one and all! We’ve been in a very strange weather pattern lately, where for a couple of days it warms up so it’s not so chilly, and then it goes right back to being bone chilling chilly! Yesterday and today, are the designated warmer days this week, before we head back to the cold… Longtime readers know that I abhor cold weather, and it’s the main reason I spend my winters in S. Florida… Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and I will give thanks once again for living in the U.S.A. We may have our problems here, but… People all over the world would love to live here, so apparently their problems are worse! Our Blues play the Detroit Red Wings tonight… Man, these games used to be barn burners…  But with the game the night before Thanksgiving, I’m sure the boys will be very gentlemanly tonight! HAHAHAHA! As if! Given all the rough play of a hockey game, have you  ever wondered what determines a “Roughing penalty”?  HA!  Chris Botti greets me this morning with his version of the song: The First Noel

So… tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and the official Christmas season will begin… I’ve been listening to Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station for 3 weeks now, so my Christmas season began then! And remember when I said that the talk of a shortage of Turkeys this year was Malarkey?  Why do people and media continue to hype things to scare people?  Oh well… Thanksgiving is a time when families and friends get together and count their blessings… Last year my family went around the table with each person saying what they were thankful for… When it was my turn, I said, “I’m thankful that the Good Lord has allowed me to live, so that I can be here with all of you”…

I’m really not into talking about the manipulated markets today, folks… so this is really going to be more about the things I’m thankful for, that are on my mind… But first, I will say that Gold got smacked around the head and shoulders again yesterday, and then I received a note from my publishers, the wonderful Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, and this is what they had to say about Gold’s recent downturn…

“The gold universe had a sharp fall this week, which was a big surprise. Why? Because it doesn’t make sense at all… All of the fundamentals are bullish for gold, silver and the shares, including the massive spending and debt inflation, greater demand and much more. The main reason given for gold’s decline was the reappointment of Jerome Powell as Fed head. But that’s ridiculous. Powell’s easy monetary policies have been very bullish for gold. We believe this is going to continue.

If so, then this decline will end up being an aberration. That’ll especially be true if gold holds near its current levels, which is a strong support level, and then heads higher. We’ll soon see what’s next, but the days ahead will be important for all of the metal sectors.” From the Aden Forecast…

The dollar continues to be on a rampage VS the currencies, and there’s no stopping it right now…  The BBDXY which began the week at 1,179.41, ended the day yesterday at 1,186.63… And the old Dollar Index, which hasn’t seen 100 in many years, continues its march toward 100…

The price of Oil shrugged off the news of 50 Million barrels of Oil being released from the Strategic Reserves, and gained about $2 on the day… I had a dear reader send me a note and tell me that in the whole scheme of things 50 Million barrels is a drop in the bucket and won’t change prices of gas…  So, like I said yesterday, this was a symbolic gesture by the POTUS, and nothing more…

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar continued to be bought, and we start today with the BBDXY at 1,188.35, so up some more… Gold and Silver are down again in the early trading today… My spider sense is tingling that today’s data in the U.S. could very well spell the end of the dollar buying, but I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh? 

And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand / RBNZ, hiked rates again last night, marking their second rate hike in the last 3 months!  I once coined the phrase “Prudent Central Bank”, and the RBNZ was a part of that group, but in the last few years, with all Central Banks going to zero interest rates, buying bonds, and stimulating their respective economies, there were no more “Prudent Central Banks”… But The RBNZ appears to be re-applying for membership!  Way to go RBNZ! You Rock!

Please make sure that you tell at least one person tomorrow: Happy Thanksgiving…  No Happy Holidays, or any other bunk…  There’s no religion to this day, so go ahead and say: Happy Thanksgiving!

In our local newspaper yesterday, was this ditty… “A Missouri judge has stripped local health departments of their ability to issue orders designed to keep people safe during a pandemic.

In a case involving a St. Louis County restaurant owner, Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green said all health orders related to the spread of COVID-19 in the state should be lifted because they violate the state constitution’s separation of powers clause affecting the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.”

I was always of that thought that they couldn’t tell businesses they had to close in this situation… Looks like I was correct, once again! HA

I just glanced at my wall board of pictures, and focused on one picture… It’s a picture of the World Markets Group that was once together at EverBank… In the picture Aaron Stevenson, Mike Harrell, Chris Gaffney, Ty Keough, Tim Smith, Antione Lawrence, Dane Moody, Christine Peplow,

Jen McClain, Mike Meyer, and Chuck Butler…  Now that was a great group of people to work with, and I am thankful that I got to know each and everyone of those folks, for they enhanced my life and made going to work each day a joy…

I’m thankful for my wife of 45 years.. That’s a long time folks, and while the last 15 have been very difficult for us, we’ve weathered the storms, and she has been a real trooper for me when I was in the depths of my cancer…

I’m thankful for my kids, Dawn, Andrew and Alex… and their partners, Jerry, Rachel, and Grace… Each of my children have carved out their careers in different ways, and all are successful. They love each other’s company, and we all get along great when together… I love spending time with each of them whenever I get the opportunity to do so.

I’m Thankful for my grandkids… The first grandkid, and the sweetest, Delaney Grace… Everett who turns 11 this week, and Braden who’s 10, are growing up to be fine young men, and then there’s little 2 year old Evie… It’s so much fun to have a little one around the house this time of year!

I’m thankful for my friends…  I’ve gone through quite a few friends through the years… But one constant friend, Mike Karvas, has been there since the 2^nd grade… I worry about him, he worries about me, and still here we are! There are a plethora of names that are too many to mention each one, but I want them all to know that I’m a better person because of knowing them…

I’m thankful for my siblings… There were 7 of us to start, and only 4 remain… I miss my sisters, Brenda and Barbara, and brother David…  I trust they are in better places right now, while the remaining Butlers, Chuck, Terri, Joanie, and Mike continue to get through life, without them in our lives… I’m really thankful that I did get to spend meaningful years with them before their respective passing…

I’m thankful for you dear reader…  without you, what would I do? Talk to myself? I am so grateful that many of you dear readers have stuck with me from the beginning…  After reaching 20 years of writing the Pfennig in 2012, I signed baseball caps and sent them to the readers that had been with me those 20 years… I hope you still have those caps! They’ll be worth something someday… Well, probably not, but it was fun thinking that they would!

I’m thankful for the Aden Sisters, who were so kind, and gracious to pick me up when I was kicked to the curb, and offered to publish the Pfennig… They have been behind me all the way, and for that I’m Thankful!

And finally, like I said above: I’m thankful that the Good Lord has allowed me to live so that I can be here with all of you! 

And that brings me to the Datapalooza today… I warned you on Monday of this week that today would be a door busting day of data…  Personal Income and Spending, Core Inflation, Durable and Capital Goods Orders, and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, are the headliners, with other minor data prints also on the docket today…  I’m thinking that today, ends the dollar’s run to higher ground…

To recap… The dollar continues to kick tail and take names later while the anti-dollar assets get sold down the river… Gold got shellacked again yesterday losing the $1,800 handle once again, as it lost $14 on the day, and Silver dropped 53-cents on the day… Gold closed at $1,790.70 and Silver at $23.74…  The Aden Sisters take part in the Pfennig today with a quote from their excellent newsletter: The Aden Forecast.  And Chuck goes through a list of things that he’s thankful for on this day before Thanksgiving…

For What It’s Worth…  I’m straying from the normal FWIW Articles today, and going with some history/ Tradition that I love… You can find this whole article here: Thanksgiving 2021 – Tradition, Origins & Meaning – HISTORY

Or, here’s your snippet: “In September 1620, a small ship called the Mayflower left Plymouth, England, carrying 102 passengers—an assortment of religious separatists seeking a new home where they could freely practice their faith and other individuals lured by the promise of prosperity and land ownership in the “New World.” After a treacherous and uncomfortable crossing that lasted 66 days, they dropped anchor near the tip of Cape Cod, far north of their intended destination at the mouth of the Hudson River. One month later, the Mayflower crossed Massachusetts Bay, where the Pilgrims, as they are now commonly known, began the work of establishing a village at Plymouth.

Throughout that first brutal winter, most of the colonists remained on board the ship, where they suffered from exposure, scurvy and outbreaks of contagious disease. Only half of the Mayflower’s original passengers and crew lived to see their first New England spring. In March, the remaining settlers moved ashore, where they received an astonishing visit from a member of the Abenaki tribe who greeted them in English.

Several days later, he returned with another Native American, Squanto, a member of the Pawtuxet tribe who had been kidnapped by an English sea captain and sold into slavery before escaping to London and returning to his homeland on an exploratory expedition. Squanto taught the Pilgrims, weakened by malnutrition and illness, how to cultivate corn, extract sap from maple trees, catch fish in the rivers and avoid poisonous plants. He also helped the settlers forge an alliance with the Wampanoag, a local tribe, which would endure for more than 50 years and tragically remains one of the sole examples of harmony between European colonists and Native Americans.

In November 1621, after the Pilgrims’ first corn harvest proved successful, Governor William Bradford organized a celebratory feast and invited a group of the fledgling colony’s Native American allies, including the Wampanoag chief Massasoit. Now remembered as American’s “first Thanksgiving”—although the Pilgrims themselves may not have used the term at the time—the festival lasted for three days.”

Chuck again…  Norman Rockwell’s Thanksgiving painting is a favorite of mine, and illustrates what Thanksgiving means to so many Americans… I’m so glad I got this opportunity to share with you today what I’m thankful for…

Market Prices 11/24/2021: American Style: A$ .7205,  kiwi .6892, C$ .7874, euro 1.1214, sterling 1.3361, Swiss $1.0681, European Style: rand 15.8741, krone 8.9277, SEK 9.0837,  forint 328.79,  zloty 4.1733,  koruna 22.7242, RUB 74.77, yen 115.12, sing 1.3675, HKD 7.7968, INR 74.39, China 6.3883, peso 21.25, BRL 5.5886,  BBDXY 1,188.35, Dollar Index 96.74,  Oil $78.49, 10-year 1.66%, Silver $23.50, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,957.00, Copper $4.47, and Gold.. $1,786.20

That’s it for today, and this week…  So, will you be participating in the Black Friday sales? Our old EverBank office shared a parking lot with two major big box retailers, and there were times in the past when on Black Friday, parking was a madhouse… At least that’s what they would tell me, since I stopped working on the day after Thanksgiving many years ago! I guess most buying these days is done online.. I mean that’s where I go to buy things, but I have different circumstances… I love the food on Thanksgiving, but I especially love pumpkin pie with whipped cream!  And I love a turkey sandwich at the end of the night! I remember when the turkey we got on Thanksgiving would be the only turkey we would have all year! Now I eat turkey nearly every day!  So, onto Thanksgiving… Beegie Adams takes us to the finish line today with her version of the song: Winter Romance… I’ve got to say that this is one of my new fave Christmas songs… I hope you have a Wild, Wacky and Wonderful Wednesday today, and that you have a VERY Blessed THANKSGIVING tomorrow, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler