Author: admin

• Currencies & metals rally late last week…
• But get sold in the overnight markets last night!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… This is, for some of us, Columbus Day, and for other that like to burst balloons, Indigenous Peoples Day… I used to take Columbus Day off, and not write, but now that I’m so far behind I just had to write today… So, it’s the Dodgers/ Mets in the NLCS, and Yankees/ Indians (I mean Guardians) in the ALCS… These baseball games have been exciting and thrilling at times… A good Playoffs year for Baseball so far! Before I go any further, I want to acknowledge all the dear readers who sent me a note regarding my latest bout with health… Thank you so much, from the bottom of my heart, they are all truly appreciated! 

Well, the dollar is still strong, and has me scratching my bald head, wondering what the heck is going on here?  Interest rates will be lowered in the future, maybe not at a quick rate the markets all want, but lowered nevertheless… I told you before that rate cuts equal debasing for the country’s currency…  And right now the dollar is set to be submitted to quite a bit of debasing… So, why is the dollar strong? 

On Thursday last week, the dollar ran into some selling but, that was just it, it was just “some selling”, and the BBDXY lost 2 index points to 1,243…  Not exactly a “selloff”… Of any stripe… And on Friday, the BBDXY lost 1 index point to end the week at 1,242… 3 index points are not going to get the currencies out of their respective sick beds… 

In Gold & Silver, after spending multiple days in the short paper traders trance, finally broke away on Thursday… Gold gained $23 and Silver gained .63-cents, and then they both followed  those gains with more gains on Friday, as Gold gained $27 to end the week at $2,656.90, and Silver gained 39-cents to end the week $31.50

I’ll say this now, so maybe you’ll hear me later… With all the saber rattling going on with the U.S. in the middle of it, one would think that Gold would be a one-way ticket to Happy Days…   With Silver going along for the ride! 

In addition, countries all over the world are back to easing rates… Last week, we had the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates again, and this time they cut their Official Cash Rate 50 Basis Points to 4.75%… In line with the dollar, but not a good thing for kiwi…  

The price of Oil ended the week with a $75 handle… All the saber rattling is helping the price of Oil stabilize… And the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 4.10% yield… I have to believe that the Fed Heads are doing their best to keep this yield from going higher… So, I guess we’ll see who wins…   the bond boys or the Fed Heads… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Whoa there Nelly! What on earth is going on here? The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair last night, and the BBDXY is up 4 index points this morning…  I just don’t get it, but, as I always say, it is what it is…  So, the dollar is in rally mode this morning to start our week… Gold is seeing some selling in the early trading and is down $5 to start our day/ week. Silver too, is down 26-cents… This is a typical Monday morning, as far as I’m concerned… Rainy days and Mondays always get me down…  I really couldn’t answer the bell this morning to start it off too!  

The price of Oil dipped to $74 overnight, and the 10-year is trading at 4.10%…  Come to think of it, this bulging 10-year’s yield, could be one reason why the dollar is so strong these days… But, IF the 10-year is getting bought, along with the dollar, we would see some weakness in the yield…  So, that theory has got some work to do, before going prime time… 

Well, did you get your notice from the SSA that most likely you will receive a 2.5% raise in your SSA check for 2025? That is the COLA increase… Cost of Living adjustment…  Wait, What?  John Williams tells me that consumer inflation is running about 8%… Shouldn’t the COLA be closer to that number? Oh, well, the premiums for Medicare will just increase as much, so don’t go buying a boat with your increase! 

At a Conference years ago, I stood on a stage and told the crowd that the newly formed BRICS would one day be something to reckon with…  I had many attendees stop by the booth and tell me how wrong I was that the BRICS wouldn’t be around in 10 years, etc. etc. I wish I could go back in time with what I know about the BRICS now! Pretty soon, on the calendar, the BRICS will have their annual meeting and there are some that think that the BRICS will introduce a new Gold Backed currency… Now, I’m not one to spread rumors, so I’ll just say that it would be incredible if they did announce a new Gold Backed currency… Talk about a way to get investors interested in your new currency!  We won’t have to wait too long to see if the rumors are true, as the BRIX will next meet Rocktober 22-24… 

Well, there was an article on Bloomberg.com this morning about how the euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting….  I talked about this last week in my one Pfennig in the last two weeks! So, that’s got me thinking that the Bloomberg.com writer of the story got his idea from the Pfennig?  Now that would be a hoot, wouldn’t it? There was a time when I was the only “go-to” for the media who wanted to know what was going on in the currency markets…  I would be the only speaker at conferences that would be taking about the currencies, and so forth…  But that’s no more…  Everybody and their brothers writes about the currencies now-a-days…  

Not that that information is what you opened the email to read, so sorry about that but once again my fat fingers started flying across the laptop, and there you go! 

It appears that the higher for longer idea about interest rates around the world is coming to an end…. And looking back on it, the idea didn’t really pan out, did it?  I don’t feel that interest rates here in the U.S. were ever “high”, and I certainly don’t believe that interest rate levels didn’t last very long… So, once again false advertising from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… And the rest of the world is just following what the Fed Heads do.. So, shame on them for not having any intestinal fortitude to actually fight inflation…

Speaking of inflation… Even using the STUPID CPI, inflation showed once again that it is sticky, and not going away that easily, as the Fed Heads would have you believe… The consumer price index rose 2.4% in September from 12 months earlier, slightly higher than the 2.3% expected, and that fact brought CBS news to proclaim that “U.S. inflation continued to cool in September. ”  Wait, What? What on earth were they looking at?   I shake my head in disbelief that they get away with the lies, I mean things they come up with… 

The U.S. Cupboard this week is pretty lacking until Thursday, that is… I talked last week about the multiple of Fed Speakers there our on the speaking circuit, and how i wondered if at least one of them might say something worth our time?   Well, the answer to that question is a big fat NO!  All those speakers and not one of them said anything worth the paper their notes were printed on…  (The stupid outlook program that tries to soften my writing is at it again, and once again I ignore it!)

To recap… Well, on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar saw a small amount of selling…  But in the overnight markets last night the dollar got bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair!  Gold & Silver got bought late last week, but are seeing some selling to start our week today… Euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting, as Chuck first talked about last week!  

For What It’s Worth…  Above this morning, I talked about the BRICS, and the rumor that they would be announcing a new Gold Backed currency, and IF true that would change the currency markets going forward… And then I came across this article by James Rickards, that talks about how change goes slowly and then suddenly, and it can be found here: Gradually, Then Suddenly – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30–40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Then in 1944, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing.

Today, the existing monetary system is over 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a change.

I’ve written for years about different nations’ persistent efforts to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the leading global reserve currency and the main medium of exchange.

At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades.

While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, the U.S. initiated the most aggressive sanctions regime ever in its efforts to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.

The first round of financial targets included obvious attacks such as freezing the U.S. dollar accounts of Russian banks and oligarchs. The second round raised the ante by freezing the dollar accounts of the Central Bank of Russia itself. This was unprecedented except in the case of rogue states such as Iran, North Korea and Syria.

Suddenly the central bank of the world’s ninth-largest economy and third-largest oil producer with over $2.1 trillion in GDP found itself shut out of the global payments and banking systems.

They U.S. is  also driving countries away from using dollars in international transactions for fear that they could become the next target of U.S. displeasure.

I’ve been warning about this for years. Almost 10 years ago, I sat in a secure conference room at the Pentagon and explained to a group of U.S. national security officials from the military, CIA, Treasury and other agencies that the overuse of the U.S. dollar in financial warfare would eventually compel nations to seek dollar alternatives.”

Chuck again… As always, James Rickards’ writings are bang on…  

Market Prices 10/14/2024: American Style: A$ .6705, kiwi .6071, C$ .7298, euro 1.0909, sterling 1.3034, Swiss $1.1589, European Style; rand 17.5155, krone 10.7818, SEK 10.4379, forint 367.82, zloty 3.9328, koruna 23.1412, RUB 96.43, yen 149.78, sing 1.3087, HKD 7.7618, INR 83.05, China 7.0888, peso 19.35, BRL 5.6348, BBDXY 1,247.09. Dollar Index 103.29, Oil $74.01, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $31.24, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,040.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $2,651.73

That’s it for today… Yesterday we celebrated our little Evie’s 5th birthday…  She is so darned cute!  My first granddaughter, Delaney Grace, was there shortly, and my mind kept going back in time to when Delaney was 5…  Strange how the mind works, eh? My beloved Mizzou Tigers got back on the winning tracks last Saturday, hopefully they’ve learned their lesson about how to be prepared for an opponent! I fell asleep last night watching the Dodgers bash the Mets in game 1 of the NLCS… Isn’t this how we all thought the NL would go this year, with the Dodgers going to the World Series?  You get what you pay for, is the old adage that’s appropriate here… And ex-Cardinals pitcher, threw the shutout for the Dodgers… UGH! Mitch Ryder and the Detroit Wheels take us to the finish line this morning, with their song: Jenny Take A Ride/ CC Rider… A real seat dancing song!  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• It’s all about the dollar these days…
• China is back from their weeklong holiday…

Good Day… And a tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! You’ll have to excuse me from participating in any Tub Thumpin’, folks… One thought I had about the last week, while I was in the hospital… Is that, I feel like I’m way too young to have these problems! But, then I think about my age, and next March, I’ll turn 70!  I met a doctor in the hospital for the first time who was absolutely amazed that I was still kicking it, after my cancer diagnosis 18 years ago!  He said, “Who lives 18 years with metastatic renal cell carcinoma?” This guy! Supertramp greets me this morning with their song: Take The Long Way Home… 

Ok, so do you want to know what my major problems are?  If not, simply go down 2 paragraphs, where the markets talk begins…  It’s all about cancer and chemo…  You see, the chemo that I was taking, caused my body to retain water, and before I knew it, I had gained 40 pounds… I also have fluid around my heart, that is very disturbing to me…  It will have to be gotten rid of either by medicine or with very risky surgery…  That fluid is causing my breathing and blood oxygen to plummet…  So, I now have a oxygen tank following me everywhere I go… UGH!…  So, the jury is still out on how the medicine will do as far as removing the fluid…    

OK, I talked about how the chemo I was taking caused all this water/ fluid buildup… So, why not stop taking the chemo?  And I did… But the problem in the weeds here is that this chemo was the very last chemo that is directed at kidney cancer that is out there…  I’ve taken them all in 18 years, as there is no one out there that thought anyone would still be alive to take chemo after 18 years…   So, now the tumor in my mouth, without taking anything to stop its growth, is growing quickly… So, now I’m going to have to have it degrowthed, with surgery…  This is a recurring trend isn’t it?  So, there are my two health problems in a nutshell… I really don’t know how I’ll be able to get through all this, and still dedicate my time to writing the Pfennig…  But, I’ll carry on, my wayward son, (Kansas) despite my short-comings… 

Ok… What on earth has gone on in my absence? The dollar was teetering on the edge of the cliff, and now it’s soaring once again… What changed? Well, first, we had the PPT enter the markets and buy dollars once again, and that put a tourniquet around the bleeding dollar, and since then, everything I read is about how the markets don’t believe the Fed Heads about cutting rates more this year… 

The currencies have all been returned to their respective sick beds… Even the currencies with higher interest rates than the dollar…  The Petrol Currencies, sans the ruble, are holding their ground VS the dollar, but that’s only a consolation… The price of Oil has recovered nicely, and trades with a $75 handle… And all those people that bought the 10-year Treasury thinking that it would continue to rally with the thought that the Fed Heads were in a rate cutting cycle, have BIG losses as the 10-year’s yield is up to 4.05%…. Just two weeks ago, after the Fed cut rates 50 Basis Points, the 10-year’s yield dropped to 3.68%…  When I used to trade bonds, I could calculate the loss in bond price from a move in yields like that… But that talent escaped me long ago….  Just trust me on this, that’s a BIG loss for those bond holders, should they panic and attempt to get out of the bond…  I’m just saying… 

And Gold & Silver have seen their gains chopped down by the short paper traders…  The two metals have seen days where they rally, only to be squashed by the short paper traders the next day…  Monday, was one of those days where the metals rallied… Now, if the trend continues, they’ll get sold on Tuesday, and that’s exactly what happened…  UGH!  The demand for physical Gold is still strong, and that’s the reason the short paper traders are in the markets daily…  

In the overnight markets last night…  Well the dollar bugs have all shut down until they see the color of the STUPID CPI today…  The BBDXY is flat this morning at 1,244…  Gold and Silver have clocked in on a day when they get bought… Gold is up $5 and silver i up 9-cent to start the day today…  I have a quote for you from Ed Steer’s letter this morning… Here’s Ed: “s I keep saying — and you should already know by now, precious metal prices in particular — and all commodity prices in general would be eye-popping values if the commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t watching over them 24/7.” Ed can be found www.edsteergoldsliver.com

Remember after Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, announced that the Fed Heads has voted to cut rates 50 Basis Points, and I said, ” The last time the Fed Heads cut rates 50 Basis Point, was in the middle of the Great Financial Crises., so is that what we have to look forward to? Or… Was this just the Fed Heads kowtowing to their masters, Wall Street?  I would have to believe that this was the latter of the two… And was more political than anything else.”   

Well, it seems that thought that it was a political move is really catching on… Here’s a headline news story that came my way, “Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure”  if you want to read the article it can be found here: Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure

The European Central Bank (ECB ) cut rates at their last meeting, and is being thought of as in a rate cut cycle, so that means that more rate cuts will come…  And that won’t help the euro…  Another thing that I saw the other day was that Physical Gold had replaced the euro as the number 2 reserve of Central Banks around the world…  Yet, another chink in the armor of the euro…  I’m just saying…   But remember, as the offset to the dollar, the euro has proven through the years, that it can rally when the dollar is getting sold, no matter what the economic fundamentals show in the eurozone….. 

The folks over at The Motley Fool, pointed out last week that Money Supply is growing again in 2024… Uh-Oh! Money Supply equals inflation… I’ll go to my grave saying those words… In fact maybe I can get Kathy to put that on my grave marker….    This growth of money supply is the reason that I think the Fed Heads’ thought that they have defeated inflation is a pipe dream…   

And the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC didn’t wait too long after returning from their weeklong holiday to allow the renminbi to gain a lot VS the dollar, thus making up for their time away… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.07 handle… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard Tuesday had nothing but Fed Head speakers… Tons of them!  Maybe one of these knuckleheads said something that made sense….  Maybe….   Yesterday,  there were more Fed Head speakers, so they get another chance to say something profound!  In addition, we’ll see the color of the STUPID CPI for Sept….  This ought to be special as the church lady used to say…   I don’t trust any Gov’t report any longer, as all of them are being revised to show favorable results for the administration….   I just say, take them with only a few grains of salt, my dear reader friends… 

Unfortunately, the markets don’t view it logically like I do… They’ll take whatever number the Gov’t prints for the STUPID CPI as the gospel, and run with it… 

To recap…  the dollar is in a completely different pace than it was before Chuck left for the hospital last week… More intervention caused the change in the seasons for the dollar, and since then, it’s been all about how the markets are not fully behind the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel regarding their call for more rate cuts…  Chairman, Powell, tried to let the markets down softly, the other day by telling them that the Fed Heads are NOT in any hurry to cut rates…. And the metals take one step forward and two steps backward in trading… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, like I said above, the demand for physical Gold is still strong, and here’s some proof in the pudding for that statement… The article can be found here: Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge, Survey Finds | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Costco shoppers are purchasing the store’s 1-ounce gold bars at a high rate despite the precious metal’s record-high prices in recent months, according to a recent survey.

Around 77 percent of Costco outlets that sell bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, a Bloomberg survey found.

The news outlet and financial services company said it surveyed 101 stores in 46 states that sell gold and recently restocked the precious metal.

The apparently high number of sales comes even as gold prices have surged in the past year or so. In the past 12 months, gold is up about 41 percent, going from around $1,864 per ounce to $2,640 per ounce.

According to data provided by the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), the spot price for gold hit a record $2,686 per ounce on Sept. 26.

Costco started selling the 1-ounce gold bars in late 2023 in its stores and via its website, available only to members.

Since then, the company has started selling silver coins and now platinum bars and coins.

Wells Fargo in April estimated that the big-box retailer is selling up to $200 million in gold per month.

“Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and high level of customer trust,” Edward Kelly, an analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a note to clients at the time.

“The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick online sell-outs of product, and [Costco’s] robust monthly [ecommerce] sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch,” he added.

Meanwhile, Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip told Bloomberg that gold and silver are a “meaningful part” of the company’s growth, adding that Costco is happy to have the capacity to offer those products.”

Chuck again…  Think about this for a moment… Costco is a bulk items business, at sometimes discount price, which pretty much describes the clientele…  Nothing wrong with that, my wife, is a member!  The point I’m trying to make here is that these are different kinds of buyers, that don’t appear to be frightened by the high price of Gold…    I’m just saying, for all of you out there that have still got to increase your investment portfolio allocation to metals… 

Market Prices 10/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6715, kiwi .6072, C$ .7271, euro 1.0933, sterling 1.3011, Swiss $1.1633, European Style: rand 17.5990, krone 10.7840, SEK 10.3962, forint 366.29, zloty 3.9381, koruna 23.7650, RUB 97.44, yen 149.00, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7717, INR 83.87, China 7.0774, peso 19.48, BRL 5.5931, BBDXY 1,244.67, Dollar Index 102.96, Oil $74.13 10-year 4.09%, Silver $30.59, Platinum $956.00, Palladium $ 1,048.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,612.80

That’s it for today… Well, I really did want to write yesterday, but I couldn’t answer the bell in the morning…  And by the time I did awake, the markets were going full swing… So I wouldn’t have been able to give you any foresight to make a markets decision…  thinking back to the last week… My poor arms and hands, from al the needle sticks into them… OUCH! If I had been in a car wreck and the paramedics looked at my arms they  would think I was a drug addict! I had some great nurses last week, Becky, and Lauren were the best! I’ll be sure to mention that when they send my survey! What the hell was that from my beloved Mizzou Tigers last week?  I told them that they couldn’t come out flat in SEC games, and they did’t listen!   And now a team that was well thought of in August, is out of the College playoffs picture… There’s still time to get back into the picture, but there has to be a change in this team’s intestinal fortitude…. I’m just saying….   Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Rikki Don’t Lose That Number… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today… And that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

Good Day… and I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday today… I’m not sure what’s going on with me… but I’m headed to the hospital this morning to see if they can figure out why my blood oxygen level has dropped so quickly to dangerous levels …

So no Pfennig today… 

Tell you more tomorrow 

chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  My beloved Cardinals ended their season yesterday with a win, thus giving them 12 more wins in 2024 than they got in 2023.   Of course, it wasn’t good enough to get them into the playoffs…. Barbara Lewis greets me this morning with her song: Hello Stranger…

Well, last Thursday, the proof was in the pudding, as you may recall me accusing the PPT for the dollar “recovery” on Wednesday… But on Thursday, the dollar went right back into getting sold… The BBDXY had fallen to 1,218 on Tuesday only to see the PPT enter and buy dollars driving the BBDY up to 1,226 on Wednesday… Then Thursday was the dollar go right back down to 1,217…  So, if that’s not illustrative enough for anyone to see how the dollar was saved on Wednesday by the PPT, then it’s time to get your glasses checked….  

Gold gained $16 on Thursday to a new all-time high of $2,673.50, and Silver gained 21-ents to end the day at $31.98…

That’s all good and that, but you should have seen these two metals kicking some tail and taking names later, during the day on Thursday…  I’ll let you read a snippet from Ed Steer on what he saw “It was yet another one of those days where all four precious metals would have closed at some fantastic price in a short covering rally for the ages if the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe hadn’t appeared.

Gold closed at another new nominal high price. Although it finished the Thursday trading session up $16.80 in the spot market, it only closed higher by $10.20 in its current front month, which is December. Its high tick in that month was $2,708.50 — but was hauled lower and closed below $2,700. If they hadn’t, it’s a certainty that it would have closed with a ‘3’ handle yesterday. As it is, gold is now showing hugely overbought on its RSI trace.

The interference in silver was even more egregious. It was capped very shortly after it broke pennies above $33.00 in the December contract…its current front month as well — and they then had the audacity to close it below $32 in the spot market. But if they hadn’t shown up, it’s a near certainty that silver would easily taken out its old $50 nominal highs of yesteryear.” – Ed Steer from his newsletter: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Chuck again…  when Ed mentioned $50 for Silver, it reminded me of an article I wrote for a major magazine back in the day that was titled “Silver is the new Gold”, and I touted how Silver would soon be trading at $50, and then it did… But soon after that the trap door was sprung under Silver and it traded at $50 no more…. I never received an invitation to write another article for the magazine… I wondered why?  HA! 

On Friday, after the 2nd QTR’s GDP was revised unchanged at 3.0% growth, due to Gov’t spending, I might add, the dollar rallied a bit, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points to 1,220….  The reason for the rally? Well, the markets came to the conclusion that if GDP was so strong the Fed Heads might not need to cut rates so sharply…  To that, I say, balderdash! The Fed Heads have their “dot plot” for interest rates, and they already have them down another 50 Basis Points going into year-end….  

Friday also saw a ton of economic data…  I’ll get to that in the Data Cupboard section today, but all-in-all, the data wasn’t especially that good… So, stay tuned from that commentary later this morning…  The short paper traders liked their work on Thursday so much, that they came back for more on Friday, and sent Gold & Silver reeling… 

Gold ended the week down $ $15.60 to close at $2,657.90… and Silver was down 36-cents to close the week at $31.61…

The dollar was range bound on Friday and the BBDXY closed the week at 1217….

That’s down from a week ago when it started the week at 1,222…And a month ago the BBDXY was 1,240!   So, even when the PPT steps in to save the dollar they don’t stop the boil … Yes this is like the frog in a pot of water… if you drop a frog in boiling water it will jump out… but if you drop a frog in a pot of water and slowly turn up the heat…. you have cooked frog.!  

So if the dollar bears want a cooked dollar, they’ll have to apply heat on the dollar at a slow pace so to not awaken the dollar bugs….  

I don’t have any internet on my laptop this morning I have no idea what’s going on… my phone and TV have internet but not my laptop and iPad…  I’m actually writing this on my phone this morning…. so they’ll be no FWIW this morning…..

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was bought a bit with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points… Gold is getting sold in the early trading today and is down $18 to start the day/week… Silver, too, is getting sold and is down 42-cents to start the day/ week,,,, 

The Petrol Currencies are not performing well with the price of Oil getting whacked… Currencies like the ruble, krone, and others are not being able to gain while the dollar is weak because of the weakness in the price of Oil, which trades this morning with a $68 handle…

I’ll have more for you tomorrow if I can get my laptop fixed today… no wait! Not tomorrow but on Wednesday!  No Pfennig tomorrow…

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week saw Personal Income up .2% and Personal Spending up.3%..,. One step forward and a half step back…. ugh!

We also saw the Aug. PCE. And it came in at 2.2%…. I know I don’t have to remind you that it’s an Election Year….this data should have sent the dollar reeling but it didn’t thus validating the markets feeling for it’s truthfulness…. I’m just saying…

This week’s Data Cupboard is off and on this real economic data, and will end the week with the Jobs Jamboree on Friday…

To recap the dollar is down from month to month and Chuck thinks the dollar is the frog in the pot of water…

Market Prices 9/30/2024: American Style: A$ ,6921, kiwi .6350, C$ .7393, euro 1.1186, sterling 1.3388, Swiss 1.1841, European Style:  rand 17.1845, krone 10.5330, SEK 10.1132, forint 355.57, zloty 3.6259, koruna 22.5247, RUB 93.09, yen 142.68, sing 1.2814, HKD 7.7670, INR 83.80, China 7.0121, peso 19.66, BRL 5.4340, BBDXY 1,219.18, Dollar Index 100.37, Oil $68.21, 10-year 3.77%, Silver $31.15, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $997.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $2,639.91

That’s it for today and tomorrow I’ll have to go see someone about my laptop today…UGH!  I’m sure glad my TV didn’t bug out on me yesterday! My health doesn’t seem to be getting any better… still coughing in the morning… still weak… and now since I’m back on chemo my stomach is upset all the time!   And sleep?  Yes I sleep a lot these days…but I carry on despite my shortcomings….  The Doobie Brothers take us to the finish line today with their song: Dark Eyed Cajun Woman… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today. And Pleas Br Good To  Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler

Creator & Editor of:

A Pfennig For Your Thoughts

• The dollar gets saved from falling off the cliff again by the PPT
• Is the Gold price suppression getting exposed?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Again last night, my beloved Cardinals found timely hitting in their bats… Where has that been all year?  I know I’m being hard on the Beaver, June, but he deserves what I’m giving him!   This afternoon, I’ll be hooking up with some of my classmates… This is a unique group of classmates, as they stretch across all social genres… Everyone else is still a “working stiff”, while I’m the only that’s retired… And so on… The band, Yes, greets me this morning with their great 70’s song: Roundabout… 

Well, all that talk yesterday morning about how this latest bout of selling that the dollar was seeing, could turn into something BIG, got thrown out with the bath water yesterday, as the dollar was bought like the dollar bugs were giving away something for free!  The BBDXY gained 9 index points on the day… Now, you know that i didn’t just fall of a turnip truck, nor did I just walk into town without know what’s going on… And to me, this walks like, talks like, and smells like the PPT went to the buy dollars yesterday with both guns blazing…  There is no way in hell that this was just a “correction”, or the dollar bouncing… 

There was no data to give anyone an idea that the dollar should be bought… And it was oversold on it Relative Strength Index (RSI), this was a case of all hands-on deck to save the dollar/ Titanic from sinking…  The euro, which yesterday was sniffing around 1.12, lost over ½ cent…  And the rest of the currencies followed suit… 

The only currency to gain VS the dollar yesterday was the Chinese renminbi… Yes, the renminbi saw its price gain a bit VS the dollar and ended the day trading with a 7.01 handle…. 

Gold fluctuated all day yesterday, up, down, and all around, but ended the day flat at $2,657.50….  And Silver which was down 21-cents to start the day ended the day down 28-centst at $31.80…  I read an article from a trader at Goldman Sachs that talked about how the phones on his metals desk were ringing off the hook, that the demand for physical Gold was very strong…  So, there’s Lola’s viewpoint…   

There was a report last night that was written by a Gold analyst, who believes that Gold is in its second rally, that will take it beyond $3,000….  He said that the first rally, which is still going on, was all the Central Bank buying, but now he believes that the individual buying is taking over… I’ll have to get with my metals guru and see if he’s seeing this kind of activity from the moms and pops… 

The main thing on Gold yesterday was that it was much higher at one point in the day yesterday (by $15) only to see the short paper traders take that out, easily… 

Even with reports calling for increased demand for Oil from the U.S., the price of Oil got marked down to end the day with a $69 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw some selling yesterday, and it’s yield rose to 3.79%… 

In the overnight markets last night… It’s difficult to tell what went on last night, as there is no BBDXY report this morning… This happens from time to time, and then I have to lean on the old Dollar Index, which is off a bit this morning from where it ended yesterday. The Dollar Index, which yesterday was 100.44, is trading at 100.83 this morning, so you see the damage the PPT caused yesterday, mainly to the euro, which is the overbearing component of the Dollar Index…  Yesterday, I was talking about how the old Dollar Index was falling so fast that we should look for a dip below 100…  But not today…  

And just showing that you can’t keep a good asset class down… Gold is up $22 to start the day today, and Silver is up 67-cents!  Shoo, short paper traders, go away!   

The price of Oil fell out of bed last night after there were reports/ rumors that the Saudi’s are going to drop their $100 price target for Oil…   Oil is priced with a $67 handle this morning… And the 10-year trades in the same clothes it wore yesterday, at 3.76% yield… 

Well, what have we here?  Ok, I know that’s not fair, for I hadn’t given you anything to read yet…  So, let me set this up… The Good Folks at GATA sent me this “Are federally insured banks trading monetary metals derivatives for the government?

In their report today at Wall Street on Parade, Pam and Russ Martens marvel at the increasing amount of stock, foreign exchange, and derivatives trading that has been moved into federally insured banks by Wall Street megabanks, federally insured banks that hold most deposits for ordinary Americans.

The Martenses also marvel at the explosion of monetary metals derivatives trading by federally insured banks. They write:

“According to the most recent Office of the Comptroller of the Currency report, in the first quarter of 2024, federally-insured banks held $438.60 billion in precious metals contracts. That figure is at least 12 times greater than the amount the same banks held in precious metal contracts in any quarter from 2007 through 2018.”

Chuck again… As longtime readers, ( I even had a reader tell me yesterday that he had been reading the Pfennig since 1993!)  you’ll remember me saying this about Gold / Silver suppression… That’s it’s all generated by the Gov’t…  I even printed a Wikileaks report back in the day, that had a conversation with Kissinger and a high-ranking Senator that had them talking about how they couldn’t allow Gold to become more popular than the dollar…  This is the reason that these Casino Banks never get their leaders sent to jail when the suppression is exposed… The Casino Bank just gets a slap on the wrist in fines that don’t equal a day’s trading profits in metals suppression…  So, in my humble opinion, the answer to the question is a resounding YES!  Federally Insured Banks are trading monetary Metals Derivatives for the Gov’t!   

So… I got that off my chest this morning!   here’s something else that’s been bugging me and that is that the Gov’t’s holding of physical Gold hasn’t been audited in 50 years!   The Good Folks at GATA sent me something on this that I have for the FWIW article today, so stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel, for the FWIW… 

Well, it seems that there was outside help for the short paper traders in keeping the price of Gold in check in the first half of this year…  Here’s the skinny: “The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) disclosed that it sold gold during the first half of the year, following a report identifying the central bank as the largest precious metal seller for that period.”  

Chuck again… Geez, Louise… Are these people as dense as the Bank of England, who sold their Gold holdings back 25 years ago, and look what Gold has done since then?   My spider sense is tingling this morning that there is more to this story than what’s up front… My conspiracy hat on tells me that they were instructed to sell Gold by the U.S. Gov’t… Now that would make headlines bold wouldn’t it? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard finally has something for us this morning…  Ok, yes, yesterday we saw that New Home Sales had collapsed even with falling mortgage rates, but that data didn’t move the markets…  This morning we’ll see the color of Durable Goods Orders for August, which I’m thinking will be negative… In addition, we’ll see another revision to 2^nd QTR GDP, which previously printed at 3.00% ( Lots of Gov’t spending was the catalyst in that number)…. If we see a downward revision, the Fed Heads will be slapping each other’s backs… I’m just saying…

To recap… Well, someone, somewhere, somehow bought dollars like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, (Read the PPT) and the BBDXY gained 9 index points on the day, thus saving the dollar once again from falling off the cliff…  Gold was flat on the day, after the short paper traders took their pound of flesh…  And Silver turned a negative morning to a positive ending!    Is the short paper trading scheme finally getting exposed?  Well, if you read the wallstreetonparade.com letters…. They are doing the exposing!  it’s been 50 years since the last, for show, audit took place of Fort Knox’s Gold reserves… That’s shameful in my book, where in the bank I was audited by inside auditors and outside auditors every year, and the OCC, and the Fed, and so on… 

 For What it’s Worth… Well, I teased you a bit above about how I had something on the Fed’s no auditing of our Gold reserves, and now it’s time to produce!  The article can be found here: 50-Year Anniversary of the Notorious Show Audit of Fort Knox Gold (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Sound Money Defense League’s policy assistant, Matthew Cortez, notes that today is the 50th anniversary of the U.S. Treasury Department’s public relations stunt at Fort Knox in Kentucky, wherein a few gold bars in one of the bullion depository’s 15 vault compartments were shown to members of Congress and some journalists.

This did nothing to verify that the rest of the U.S. government’s 8,133 tonnes of gold reserves were still in the government’s possession. Nor did the stunt do anything to ascertain whether any of the U.S. gold reserve was encumbered by leases or swaps with foreign central banks or bullion banks.

Suspicion remains in order, since the secret March 1999 staff report to the board of the International Monetary Fund, obtained by GATA in 2012, confirmed that the IMF, the official compiler of international gold reserves, allows member central banks to avoid distinguishing gold in the vault from gold being leased or swap — precisely to help conceal official intervention in the gold market:

That is, the bigger question about the U.S. gold reserve may be not whether there is still metal in Fort Knox but rather how many entities have a claim to it — whether it is, to put it politely, oversubscribed.

Cortez’s reminder is headlined “50-Year Anniversary of the Notorious ‘Show Audit’ of Fort Knox Gold”

Chuck again…  Yes, the book that I recommended everyone read a couple of years ago, explained how the U.S. Gov’t sanctioned the swaps and leases that took place that reduced the Gold reserves held….   I’m just saying… ( I’m having a Senior Moment, brain drain right now, and can’t recall the name of the book or the author)

Market Prices 9/26/2024: American Style: A$ .6883, kiwi .6311, C$ .7411, euro 1.1161, sterling 1.3380, Swiss $1.1813, European Style: rand 17.2834, krone 10.5268, SEK 10.1206, forint 354.86, zloty 3.8265, koruna 22.5435, RUB 92.84, yen 144.16, sing 1.2842, HKD 7.7793, INR 83.64, China 7.0114, peso 19.54, BRL 5.4228, Dollar Index 100.83, Oil $67.67, 10-year 3.76%, Silver $32.47, Platinum $1,012.00, and Palladium $1,068.00, Copper $4.58, and Gold… $2,679.14

That’s it for today, and this week… Well, my two weeks without dr appts ends tomorrow… Monday I meet my new eye doctor (my old eye doctor died!)  and Tuesday there will be no Pfennig as I report to the hospital for a visit with my oncologist…  By the way, I’m back on chemo, as my doc believes my blood level is strong enough now… So, I have that going for me!  I personally don’t feel like my blood level is strong enough, as I still huff and puff out of breath any time I try to walk across the room… And sleep? All the time!  Oh well, life goes on…  Well, no Mizzou Tigers this weekend, and my beloved Cardinals end their season on Sunday… UGH!  The Playoffs begin next week, so that will keep me busy watching those games… Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Blue Mist….  Mama’s Pride was a St. Louis Band, and one of its members went to the same high school I went to, and I would see him in the halls, and think “Wow, a rock star here”…   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, oh please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday…
• China adds stimulus to their economy…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Where has this drive to win games been all year for my beloved Cardinals? Suddenly, they are winning games that earlier this year, they would have lost… Not complaining, simply wondering….  Today is the “pick day” for us here in the Midwest, as rain will become a real problem for us the rest of the week, Rain from Hurrican Helene… I hope every that’s in its path for landfall has taken steps to either evacuate or hunker down….  Elvin Bishop greets me this morning with his song: Fooled Around And Fell In Love… 

Well, the light bulb above the dollar bugs finally came on yesterday, and they realized that they shouldn’t be buying dollars, but instead, they should be selling dollars… And sell them they did, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points on the day… The PPT was nowhere to be found yesterday, and makes you wonder, doesn’t it?  The dollar reached a low in the BBDXY that goes back to April 2022…  So, will the PPT allow the dollar to fall off the cliff here?  That, my friends, is the $64 question… 

While the dollar was getting sold yesterday, Gold & Silver went on the warpath against the dollar… Gold gained $29 on the day to close at $2.656.40, and Silver gained $1.43 to move through the $31 handle like a hot knife through butter and closed at $32.04….  It was interesting to see how high these two metals would trade in a day without interference from the short paper traders… 

I’m telling you now, so you might listen to me later,  that all the physical buying that’s going on in these metals is keeping the short paper traders on the sidelines, right now… Oh, don’t you worry, they’ll be back…  but right now would be suicide for them if they had tried to stop the metals run yesterday…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil rose to $71.50 yesterday… And the selling of the 10-year finally saw an end yesterday, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 3.74%… 

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar saw more selling, not a lot of selling, but some selling nonetheless…  The BBDXY has lost another index point overnight, and begins trading today at 1,217…  The Old Dollar Index begins today at 100.44…  Ok, I was thinking about this selling of the dollar, and wondering if this is the beginning of something BIG…  And then the thought crossed my mind that if the old Dollar Index would fall below 100, then it would confirm that the dollar has crossed over to a weak dollar trend…  So, as you can see there’s a lot of room here for the dollar to turn around, but in my mind, I just don’t see that happening this time. Yes, the PPT is like the wolf aways at the door, but for now they sat on their hands… And hopefully, that’s where they’ll stay! 

Gold is up a buck to start the day today, and silver is getting sold and this doesn’t look like profit taking… Silver is down 21-cents to start the day today… UGH!  it’s always two steps forward, one step back for Silver… The short paper traders just won’t lose their grip on Silver… I’m just saying…  But Silver was trading over $32 to end the day yesterday, and it will trade over $32 again… Mark my words on that! 

The price of Oil is down a bit and trades with a $70 handle… One would think, and that “one” is me, that all the goings on in the Middle East would have the price of Oil moving higher and higher by the day, because there will disruptions of deliver you can count on that…  The 10-year starts the day trading at 3.76% yield…   

I talked yesterday about how the Chinese renminbi had been on a Big Time Roll in recent times… I found this on FXSTREET.com that pointed to the reason the renminbi is on the rally tracks: “The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) announced a slew of stimulus measures in a joint briefing on Tue (24 Sep). The PBOC doubled down on its monetary policy easing by cutting both the interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen notes.”

Chuck again…  OK, I guess we’ll see how the Chinese stimulus works for their economy, when the stimulus in Japan, and the U.S. didn’t work… I get it, the Chinese have been doing this banking thing for 100’s of years before we had our clandestine meeting on Jekyll Island, Ga. In 1912-13, to form the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… So, Chances are, cause I wear a silly grin, the moment you come into view…. NO, WAIT!   C’mon Chuck, get with the program… Ok, sorry, but I love that song!  Chances are that the Chinese will get it right, and that’s the thoughts that are going through the markets right now and has the renminbi trading at levels it hasn’t seen in 8 years!  

The Aussie dollar has really been on a roll lately too, with the A$ climbing above.69-cents yesterday… It was kept from closing above .69-cents, after a softer than expected CPI printed…  I know, I know, a softer CPI would mean no rate cuts are coming, and that should have been good news for the A$… But, it is what it is… And if the A$ was traded above 69-cents yesterday, it will trade above it again…. I’m just saying…

The euro has put its debasing rate cut behind it now, and is back to ratcheting higher and is knock, knock, knocking on 1.12’s door!  And the rest of the currencies are now looking much healthier and able to move away from their respective sick beds… 

Again, I’m going to remind you of who told you 2 weeks ago, to back up the truck, and load up on currencies and metals…   Geez that sure would be looking pretty good right now, now wouldn’t it? 

No, I’m slapping myself on the back here, just reminding you that you were made aware of what I was seeing coming… 

And it all started with the idea that the FOMC was ready to debase the dollar with a rate cut… At that time the thought of a 50 Basis Points rate cut was just a wild idea that was floating around the markets… So, when the FOMC decided to cut 50 BPS it was a case of Katy bar the door!   Here’s CNN.com with their thought on the 50 BPS Rate cut…  “Oftentimes, the Fed cuts interest rates because it expects economic conditions will worsen drastically in the near future and it wants to preemptively soften the blow, knowing it sometimes can’t prevent a recession altogether.

The most well-known recession indicator stopped flashing red, but now another one is going off

So in that regard, it shouldn’t be too shocking that recessions frequently begin after the Fed cuts rates.

Excluding the rate cuts that happened during the pandemic, the Fed has had six cutting cycles since 1990. Starting from the point that the Fed began cutting, the economy has fallen into a recession 18 months later on average.”

So… There you have it… Some history behind the larger rate cut… 

And here’s a take on inflation after a huge rate cut from the same article: “Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who voted for a smaller quarter-point cut as opposed to the half-point cut other officials voted for, said in a statement Friday that she was concerned the larger cut could “unnecessarily” stoke demand, potentially ushering in more inflation.

The concerns are valid, based on past cutting cycles. For instance, after the Fed cut in 1996 and 2007, the annual pace of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by over a percentage point a year later.”

Chuck again…  the only thing that could save us from run-away inflation is HUGE job losses… Because if people are out of jobs, they won’t be able to chase the price of goods around… And cause them to rise…  And the other thing hanging over us like the Sword of Damocles is money supply…. If the Gov’t doesn’t take its foot off the pedal to the metal accelerator, then there’ll be no stopping inflation… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the STUPID Consumer Confidence for this month yesterday, and believe it or don’t, but the Index actually fell this month!  The index feel from 103.3 to 98.7… So, they actually polled some people that have been keeping up with what’s going on in the world, and not just stock jockeys…. The Cupboard is basically empty today… 

To recap… The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points on the day, and gold gaining $40 and Silver $1.14…   Chuck thinks the light bulb over the heads of the dollar bugs finally lit up and told them to not buy dollars, but sell them instead… And sell them they did!   China announced HUGE stimulus for their economy, Chuck thinks that China will make it work, rather than fail like it did for Japan and the U.S.  And the conflict in the Middle East is escalating, and that has lit a fire under the price of Oil… 

For What it’s Worth…. Well, I’ve talked about how I believe there will be a default by the U.S. at some point, and Treasuries will be pretty much worthless… Well, there was this article that came across my desk from the International Man (Doug Casey), and it’s Nick Giambruno talking about the U.S. has no other choice, and it can be found here: The US Government’s Debt Crisis: Why Bankruptcy Is Unavoidable and What It Means for You (internationalman.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:”The US government can no longer delay or disguise its impending bankruptcy.

The US federal government has the biggest debt in the history of the world. And it’s continuing to grow at a rapid, unstoppable pace.

First, let me put some crucial numbers and concepts into perspective.

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts casually toss around the word “trillion” without appreciating what it means.

A trillion is a massive, almost unfathomable number.

The human brain has trouble understanding something so huge.

Suppose you had a job that paid you $1 per second, or $3,600 per hour.

That amounts to $86,400 per day and about $32 million per year.

With that job, it would take you 31.5 years to earn a billion dollars.

With that job, it would take you over 31,688 YEARS to earn a trillion dollars.

To put that in perspective, if you earned $1 a second 24/7/365—about $31 million per year—it would take over 1,109,080 YEARS to pay off the US federal debt.

And that’s with the unrealistic assumption that it would stop growing.

In short, the US government can’t repay its debt. It can’t even pay the interest expense without going into further debt.

Default is inevitable.”

Chuck again…  This is a long article that can be read at the link above in its entirety… 

Market Prices 9/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6875, kiwi .6314, C$ .7440, euro 1.1199, sterling 1.3387, Swiss $1.1796, European Style: rand 17.1594, krone 10.4458, SEK 10.1003, forint 352.59, zloty 3.8060, koruna 22.4249, RUB 92.64, yen 144.29, sing 1.2943, HKD 7.7863, INR 83.60, China 7.0288, peso 19.45, BRL 5.4665, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 100.44, Oil $70.11, 10-year 3.76%, Silver $31.88, Platinum $998.00, Platinum $1,057.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,659.50

That’s it for today… Well, fall begins this Sunday…  I’ve always contended that the Fall weather in this area of the country is the best weather… Summer is going out with a whimper, and rain… And then Fall will begin with cool crisp mornings, warm days, and cool, sometimes chilly evenings.. Last year I received a Solo Stove, a smoke less fireplace, and I haven’t used it yet… I’ve got plenty of wood piled up out back, So, the first chance to sit around and talk around a firepit it’s going to used! I just found out that the first 15 hays of Rocktober I’ll be by myself here, as Kathy is heading to S. Florida with her relatives… No males were invited… So, once again, I’ll be All by Myself… Hello, Pizza Man Pizza?  This is Chuck, I need an extra-large Pizza… HA! The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Pictures Of You…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Friday last week
• The Chinese renminbi is on the move!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, did you remember yesterday that I had told you there would be no Pfennig on Monday? I was off having blood work done… My blood levels are still way below minimum levels… UGH! As my oncologist said, “At least it has stabilized”, but that’s no solace for me… I’m still weak, and out of breath all the time!  No baseball for me last night, so I was subjected to the NFL, without RedZone! UGH!  My beloved Cardinals only have 6 more games to play this year, after taking 2 of 3 from the Indians, I mean the Guardians… It’s a very strange feeling for me, when the baseball playoffs start, without the Cardinals… England Dan, and John Ford Coley greet me this morning with their song: Night Are Forever Without You… 

Well, last Friday, I saw the dollar falling in the BBDXY by 2 index points, to 1,220, and then suddenly it was 1,224…. 1220 was a multi-month low for the dollar and it looked to me as though the PPT had interfered with the dollar once again, to keep it from falling off a cliff… I know I questioned just how much more in funding the PPT has at its disposal in the past, but apparently, they had more than I anticipated… UGH!

But guess what happened then? The dollar ended the day / week flat at 1,223…   Gold on the other hand kicked some tail on Friday, but first it was up $10 on Thursday, and Then on Friday it was up $36.30 to close the week above $2,600 at $2,622.40… Silver got in on the buying on Friday, after seeing selling on Thursday that took it down 60-cents… But on Friday, Silver closed above $31 (Yay!) at 31.24 up 39-cents on the day…  

While we’re talking about Gold… The good folks at GATA sent me this snippet from Gold master, Andrew Maguire,      “Central banks not aligned with the United States have figured out U.S. gold price suppression policy and are blowing it away with steady purchases of physical gold, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand.

Maguire says there are many indications that these central banks plan to reincorporate gold into international trade payments, avoiding the U.S. dollar, and the more the U.S. Federal Reserve tries to knock the gold price down, the more those central banks acquire real metal.

Via intermediaries to evades U.S. and European Union economic sanctions, gold already is being used increasingly as a trade currency, Maguire adds.

Russian traders anticipate a gold price of $3,500 soon, Maguire says.”

Chuck again… WOW! Now wouldn’t that be the bee’s knees to have the short paper traders get sent to the woodshed, and made to stay there?   Now, that reminds me of what I’ve always told you about, what would end this short paper trading,  remember?  I always said that there was enough physical buying of Gold,  that it would run the short paper traders out of the market….  Well, bring it on, you foreign buyers… 

Ok, back to the dollar… Yesterday, while the nurses tried to find a vein they could puncture, and remove blood, the dollar was set adrift in the sea, to bob up and own all day, in a very tight range… The BBDXY remained withing the 1,223 handle all day, up down and all around, but no great move up or down.   The euro has been the drag on the BBDXY losing ground, in that the European Central Bank (ECB ) did cut rates last week, 25 Basis Points.  The Bank of England and Bank of Japan, left their internal rates unchanged…  You see, the euro has no PPT to keep it from falling off a cliff, and so when the Central Bank debases the currency, it gets sold… 

The good news for the euro is that it held the 1.11 handle, and now the rate cut is in our rear-view mirror, so the when the dollar gets back to getting sold, the euro will benefit again… For, it is, the offset currency to the dollar! 

I think the ECB thought that with the FOMC cutting rates 50 Basis Points, that they could cut rates 25 Basis Points and not upset the euro’s applecart that much, and that’s exactly what happened… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $71 handle, and yesterday Oil got sold a bit and it fell to $70.55 on the day… The bond boys just aren’t buying what the FOMC is selling these days… They have sold bonds every day since last Wednesday’s rate cut… The 10-year’s yield rose to 3.75% yesterday, after ending the week at 3.74%… 

Could this be the work of those German traders that I wrote about a week or so ago, that were shorting the 10-year?  I said at the time that I personally didn’t think that it was a good time to be shorting Treasuries with the Fed Heads ready to cut rates, and probably announce more cuts were coming….  Shows to go you, that I called that one wrong… 

So, what happened yesterday? Gold closed up $6 to $2,627.50, and Silver closed down 2-cents, but apparently had lost the $31 handle somewhere over the weekend, so Silver was $30.62 to end the day…  The dollar traded up, down and all around the 1.223 handle in the BBDXY, and never broke out of it… 

In the overnight markets last night… All that looking backward at what happened, has my head spinning this morning…  The dollar ran into some selling overnight, and the BBDXY is down 2 index points this morning… Not a lot of selling, but some…  Gold is basically flat this morning, up a buck or two, as I write, and Silver is up 20 -cents to start our day today… The Price of Oil is back to trading with a $72 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield continues to rise and trades this morning with a 3.80% yield… 

I have to point out this morning that the Chinese renminbi has been allowed to rally VS the dollar in recent times, as I’ve previously discussed, but this latest move by the renminbi has been something for the ages… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.03 handle!  And I thought it was very interesting that the People’s Bank of China had allowed the currency to rally to 7.08 last week? Shows to go you that you can’t believe everything you hear about China… I’m just saying.. 

My friends, (Rich and Michael) over at Asset Strategies, Inc. had this to report late last week, this is a doozy so stay with me here: “According to the new Ramsey Solutions State of Personal Finance report, nearly 40% of Americans carry a higher credit card balance than they have saved for retirement. In addition, over 60% of Americans feel that they are not making meaningful progress on their retirement goals.”

You’ve got to feel for these people… Or no…   But at some point, in the future, they’re going to realize that they are not prepared to retire, and therefore will have to remain part of the workforce until they keel over…  I’m just saying… Or, maybe these folks are thinking that the Gov’t will pay their way through retirement, since the Gov’t bails out everything/ body else…  That’s got to be it…  By Joe, you’ve nailed it Governor! 

Well, are you prepared for what’s coming? It’s not going to be pretty folks… The Gloom and doom is all over the news wires, and each one paints an ugly picture of what is coming…  From Bond Defaults, to riots in the streets, to a financial system collapsing, to digital currencies… I swear if we get 20% of all those things, it’ll still be like Armagedón, because most people in the markets these days have never seen a collapsing stock market, or financial system…  All I’ll say about all of this is: Got Gold?

I have to apologize for not knowing what the hell happened to Silver over the weekend…  Did you hear the story about how the Saudi’s have been caught buying physical Gold through the back door? The Good Folks at GATA sent me this:  that the Saudi’s are buying Gold instead of Treasuries, is BIG NEWS! And I’ll be on the watch out for more information on this in the future, but for now, keep in mind that the whole Petrol currency status for the dollar hinged on the Saudi’s playing along…   And that maybe, now, they’ve changed their minds…   

And finally, the good folks at Gata also sent me something on how Financial Times discovers that the Federal Reserve serves only the banking industry…  I found that this was a real sharp stick in the eye of the Financial Times… You see, for years, the folks at GATA tried to get the Financial Times to write about price suppression of Gold & Silver, and they wouldn’t budge, but having them admit this about the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel is a step in the right direction… 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention that I saw that Mercury Morris had died this past weekend at 77…  Mercury Morries was a running back alongside Jim Kiick, and Larry Csonka… They are the only undefeated team in the Super Bowl era… 1972… I always see a TV ad that shows Morris talking about how he has a bottle of Champagne for the next team that goes undefeated…  RIP Mercury Morris… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is void of much economic reporting this week… In fact, I don’t see anything worth mentioning until Thursday, when Durable Goods will print for August, and expected to be negative…   Speaking of Thursday, we’ll also see the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, it will be interesting to see if the Mass layoffs by GM that were announced last week show up here….   

To recap… The dollar was rescued on Friday, after falling to a multi-month low on Thursday… The euro, was not rescued because the euro doesn’t have a fairy godmother to come to its aid, every time it appears to be falling off a cliff… The European Central Bank cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points last Thursday, and the Bank of England and Bank of Japan sat on their hands, and kept their powder dry…  Americans are NOT preparing for retirement… I guess they all think the Gov’t will pay their way through retirement…   Tsk, tsk, tsk…. 

For What It’s Worth…  Last Thursday, I went all postal on the Fed Heads, and their leader, Jerome Powell, about saying that the size of the rate cut was “for the people”…   I pointed out that in the past, whenever the Fed Heads opted for a larger rate cut, that the economy was in trouble… Well, this article points all that stuff out again, and I think it should be read again, and again, and again… It can be found here: Rabobank Goes Apeshit On Powell’s Orwellian Rate Cut | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “If there was a strong case for a 50 bps cut, Powell did not make it at his press conference. He repeatedly stressed that the US economy was strong, but we should see the strong move as a commitment to keep the economy strong.

Doctor: “We’ll give you extra strong medication.”

Patient: “Is my condition that bad?”

Doctor: “No, you’re healthy, but we’re committed to keep you healthy.”

In the end, it looks like Powell felt the level of the policy rate was out of sync with the progress on inflation and the rise in the unemployment rate. After all, he used the word ‘recalibration’ several times. This was also evident in the FOMC projections now showing a 100 bps reduction compared to the pre-meeting level of the target range, rather than the 25 bps in the June projections. Although Powell denied that the Fed had fallen behind the curve, this is exactly what recalibration means. However, the latter obscures the former and Powell did not want to admit that they should have cut 25 bps in July. It got really funny when he said that the FOMC had been patient in waiting and this allowed them to make a strong move. Yes, if you get behind the curve, you have to make a big leap forward to catch up!

* * *

The recalibration argument is clashing with the message this large cut sends. When asked during the Q&A what his message to the US consumer is, Powell said that the US economy is in a good place and our decision is to keep it there. Really? A 50 bps cut as a message that the economy is strong? So if they cut by 75 bps the economy is booming? This sounds like something out of George Orwell’s 1984:

WAR IS PEACE

FREEDOM IS SLAVERY

IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

Understandably, a reporter asked whether the 50 bps cut meant that he was more concerned about the labor market than about inflation. However, Powell denied this and said that the risks are roughly balanced. This exchange underlined the problem.

During the press conference, Powell had trouble clearly explaining the reason for the large cut, because he did not want to admit that this ‘recalibration’ was needed because the FOMC had fallen behind the curve. Meanwhile, the large cut seemed counterintuitive to the repeated claim that the economy was strong.

In the past, the Fed only cut 50 bps at the start of a cutting cycle in case of a severe deterioration in the economy or markets, such as the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.”

Chuck again…  You know, the more I think about this 50 BPS rate cut, the more I believe it was a political move to help the Administration’s entry to the POTUS campaign….  Now, that was a very delicate way of saying what I was saying, wasn’t it?   

Market Prices 9/24/2024; American Style: A$ .6962, kiwi .6299, C$ .7407, euro 1.1144, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.1796, European Style: rand 17.3216, krone 10.4310, SEK 10.1381, forint 353.94, zloty 3.8271, koruna 22.5630, RUB 93.04, yen 143.90, sing 1.2974, HKD 7.7846, INR 83.63, China 7.0322, peso 19.32, BRL 5.6882, BBDXY 1,222.00, Dollar Index 100.73, Oil $72.01, 10-year 3.80%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $975.00, Palladium $1,054.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,630.50

That’s it for today… Well? Did you miss me? HA! I know, I’ve been gone longer than that!  Spoiler Alert, good friend, Dennis Miller has a doozy for his readers coming out this Thursday, that will be posted to: www.milleronthemoney.com   The last time I met with good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, he gave me a Battle Bank baseball cap… I wore it to Ireland, and sine then it’s been sitting here on my makeshift desk… I don’t know how he keeps his patience with how long its taking the FDIC to bless his bank and he can open to the public… I would be on the phone with those folks daily, beating them up, taking no prisoners… And there you see the difference in our personalities! My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday, didn’t I say last week that this could be a “trap game”? Well, it almost turned out to be just that! As the Tigers won in OT…. The team is on bye this week, and that’s a good thing, for they need to get their heads on straight before the next game!  Jimmy Cliff takes us to the finish line today with his song: Hello Sunshine… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday to day, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals see short paper trading after the rate announcement…
• But get bought in the overnight markets last night

Good day… And a Tub Thunpin’ Thursday to one and all! I arrived back home last night to watch my beloved Cardinals blow their 2- lead.. and thought… well this game is lost… only to watch the Cardinals rally with a 6- run inning!  Where was that all year? Yes, it depends on the pitcher, but C’mon just a little life in those bast would have gone a long way for my team this year… I’m just saying……  Had a good time last night with my good friend, Rick B. Whenever the two of us are together,, my mind wanders to what it would be like to have retired at age 56?  OH, well, for one thing I would have missed the beat earning years of my career, so there’s that…   A Flock of Seagulls greet me this morning with their song: Space Age Love Song…

Well, the Fed Heads did the dirty deed, done dirt cheap (AC/DC)… They cut rates 50 Basis Points or 1/2% yesterday… I have to question their intellgence, or maybe they know something we don’t… For in the past, outside of the emergency rate reductions during Covid, the last time the FOMC cut by half a point was in 2008 during the global financial crisis. Yes, the great financial crisis… Is that what we’re up against again?  Or is this just the Fed Heads kowtowing to the markets, yet again?  Probably the latter of the two, don’t you think? 

And what happened after the rate announcement? Well, it played out just like I thought it would… The short paper traders made sure Gold & Silver didn’t take off for the moon, and the PPT was in buying the dollar making sure it didn’t fall off the cliff…  The BBDXY gained 4 index points yesterday, and Gold lost $10, while Silver registered a 60-cent loss…   The price of Oil bumped higher to a $71 handle, and the 10-year got sold… Wait, What? Yes, the 10-year got sold and saw its yield rise to 3.72%…. Don’t ask me, what’s going on there… Because the Fed Heads didn’t leave any question that they plan to cut 50 more basis points before year-end…. 

I the overnight markets last night, at least these guys got it right… The dollar got sold, and Gold & Silver are soaring in the early trading today…  The Fed Heads said that they “were dot plot dependent, and that they told us indicated that interest rates would be cut another 50 Basis points before year-end…  That would equal 100 Basis Points of rate cuts, or 1 full percent… The Fed Funds rate is now 4.75%…  No reason I can see to buy dollars… The BBDXY has lost the 4 index points it gained yesterday in the overnight markets, last night… The Big Winner of currencies last night was the Aussie dollar (A$)..  But there were quite a few currencies that came in 2^nd place…  So, what did I tell you a couple of weeks ago?  I told you to back up the truck, and load up with currencies & metals, so this is the scenario I was thinking about then…  But I’ve been on the wrong side of the PPT so many times in the past, that if you didn’t heed my call, I understand…  But what’s stopping you now? 

The Bank of England met this morning, and decided to keep their official rate unchanged…  Now, I find this very interesting, in that the BOE has talked a good game of rate cutting needed… And after the Fed Heads laid the brickwork for the BOE to follow in their path, The BOE decided to take a different road….  The BOE’s main rate remains at 5%… Hmmm. That’s higher than the U.S. rate, now, isn’t it?   Why yes, it is, Chuck….   Well, back in the day when currency traders actually called on the phone another currency trader and traded currencies, this scenario would have brought a ton of buying of sterling, because of the interest rate spread to the U.S. 

It’s all done over the internet now… And the internet doesn’t know the BOE left rates unchanged this morning…  I used to wear a headset, because I was on the phone most of the day…  I talked to traders here in the U.S., Canada, England, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and others on a daily basis… That’s where I received a lot of the Pfennig Pfodder…  (spell check doesn’t like that spelling, but I don’t care!) Once I was shown the door at TIAA Bank, shoe bought EverBank, I was persona non gratis with those traders I talked to for years… 

I had to switch gears and try something new for the Pfennig…  

OK, you didn’t open up the Pfennig this morning to have me wax all nostalgic on my old trading days, so we’ll move on now…  sorry!

The U.S. Data Cupboard has a couple of real economic prints this morning for us… First up is the usual Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… Last week was a full week of reports, so i expect to see more than the 230,000 that were reported last week, from the previous week.  In addition, we have the Leading Indicator which has been printing negative for some time now… This report is for August, and I expect to see yet another negative number, which is not a good omen for the economy… 

And I found this on this Tub Thumpin’ Thursday morning…. “Tupperware Brands, the Orlando, Florida-based consumer goods company that produces the iconic line of containers, said it was seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after struggling to revitalize its core business and failing to secure a tenable takeover offer.”

I found that on the AP newswire this morning…  You know things just aren’t right, when Tupperware files for Bankruptcy….  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Well, yesterday in the U.S., everything played out exactly as I thought they would, with the Fed Heads kowtowing to the markets, and cutting rates 50 Basis Points or 1/2%… The short paper trades made sure Gold & Silver didn’t take off for the moon, and the PPY made sure the dollar didn’t fall off the cliff….  But… In the overnight markets, where there was no interference, Gold & Silver are on their rally horses, and the dollar is getting sold… The Fed Heads said that 50 more basis Points will be cut by year-end… That will bring the U.S. Fed Funds rate to 4.25%….  What were the Fed Heads to do?  Bond servicing costs has just tipped the scales at $1.2 Trillion, and if they didn’t get rates lower soon, the bond servicing costs were going to be Larger than Soc. Sec. costs…..

Everyone wants to talk about how the rising debt is unsustainable (everyone except the Candidates)  But no one wants to be the boogie man and cut deficit spending… The Fed Heads are saying, “well, if you’re not going to cut deficit spending, then we’ll lower the cost to service the debt”….  So, the Fed Heads have played their cards, that reveal that they’ve chosen to inflate…  They could choose between Inflate or die…. 

For What It’s Worth… Well, since yesterday was all about the 50 Basis Points rate cut by the Fed Heads, I thought this explanation of why it was 50 BPS and not 25 BPS, by Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, chairman, Jerone Powell, would be FWIW worthy today…  While you’re reading this, think… Lies, lies, and more lies…. And it can be found here: ‘I don’t see anything in the economy that suggests that the likelihood of a downturn is elevated’ – Fed Chair Powell | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Kitco News) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the press conference that followed the central bank’s hefty 50 basis point cut to the benchmark interest rate to insist that the move was not made to support incumbent President Joe Biden on the one hand, nor was it a response to an impending economic collapse on the other.

Powell acknowledged at the outset that recent inflation and employment data led the FOMC to the conclusion that 50 basis points was justified.

“We had the two employment reports, July and August,” Powell said. “We also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCEW report that suggests the payroll report numbers that we’re getting maybe artificially high and will be revised down. We have also seen anecdotal data like the Beige Book.”

“We concluded this was a right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s how we made our decision,” he said.

Asked how markets should determine whether to expect a 25 or 50 bps cut at future meetings, Powell said “A good place to start is the SEP. If you look at the SEP, you will see that it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance away from where we were a year ago when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that’s more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be.”

“There is nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush,” he added. “This process evolves over time.” 

Chuck again…  OK, so he did it “for the people”….  I call BS here!

Market Prices 9/19/2024: American Style: A$ .6880, kiwi .6247, C$ .7375, euro 1.1152, sterling 1.3285, Swiss $1.1793, European Style: rand 17.4352, krone 10.4696, SEK 10.1576, forint 353.87, zloty 3.8267, koruna 22.4798, RUB 93.09, yen 143.20, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.7936, INR 83.68, China 7.0658, peso 19.27, BRL 5.4200, BBDXY 1,222.40, Dollar Index 100.69, OIL $71.50, 10-year 3.72%, Silver $31.14, Platinum $988.00, Palladium $1,065.00, Copper $4.35, and Gold… $2,586.03

That’s it for today and this week… I saw sad news on the wire yesterday, J.D. Souther, one of my favorite artists from the 70’s, died at 78… J.D. Souther wrote songs for the Eagles, and Linda Ronstadt… Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers play Vanderbilt this Saturday in their first SEC game of the year… No coming out flat this week boys! Go Tigers! And my beloved Cardinals play their last weekend in St. Louis this season this weekend… They’ll have to finish on the road, and then it’s splits Ville for the team’s players, who will head out to wherever… No playoffs again this year… Before we know it, our Blues will start their new NHL season!  But right now it’s all about College football for me! Bob Dylan takes us to the finish line today with the only song by him on my iPod… Knocking On Heaven’s Door… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Wonderful Weekend ahead… And Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar bounces back a bit on Tuesday…
• What’s up with China?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I was all alone last night, and forgot about eating dinner… About 8:30 last night my stomach was telling me that I hadn’t eaten… But it was too late at night to eat then… But I had a couple of saltines and went to bed… I had to stop taking the chemo already… With this chemo I have to monitor my blood oxygen level… And it has already dropped below the min that my oncologist set… So… Once again, I’m chemo free… I don’t know what she has planned for me, but this chemo just doesn’t seem to get along with my body… Linda Ronstadt greets me this morning with her song: Blue Bayou…  (This is one of her best recordings, I must say!)

Well… The waiting around for the FOMC to announce their rate decision, that will come later today, finally got to traders who couldn’t stand the sitting around twiddling their thumbs… So, they decided to take some profits in Gold & Silver, and buy a dollar or two… 

The BBDXY gained 2 index points yesterday… And Gold lost $12 on the day to close at $2,570.90, and Silver lost 8-cents to close at $30.73… As I said yesterday, it appeared that traders didn’t want to go too far out on a limb with the FOMC Meeting looming over the markets, and so the day went along with no big moves… Some profit taking in the metals, and some readjusting positions in dollars… 

Here’s Ed Steer in his letter this morning regarding the metals: “It was yet another day where both gold and silver would have certainly closed up on the day, regardless of what the dollar index was doing, but the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were there to ensure that it didn’t happen.

But, like on Monday, volumes in both were on the lighter side once again, so ‘da boyz’ had little trouble having their way with them for the second day running -” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Chuck again… Yes, even in a day of light volume, the short paper traders were out and about… Geez, I wish these guys would go find a hole to climb in an remain there! 

The currencies are all still looking healthier, but they are very timid in moving away from their sick beds… Again, it’s all about the FOMC later today… There’s something going on in China these days that has Chuck scratching his bald head… You may recall me mentioning the other day that the renminbi had been allowed to gain VS the dollar recently… Well, yesterday the renminbi was allowed to gain more VS the dollar as it was moved to a 7.08 handle… Again, most of the reports I read tell me that China’s economy is hurting… But that’ can’t be true if the Peoples Bank of China is allowing their currency to get stronger VS the dollar… There’s something going on here, folks, that I’m not seeing right now, but you can be sure that I’m on it!

The price of Oil bumped higher and ended the day trading with a$71 handle,  and the 10-year saw a little buying, and with that a lower yield of 3.64% to end the day. 

In the overnight markets last night… From the looks of things in the currencies, there was little movement overnight… I say that because the BBDXY is not available this morning… This happens every now and then, so we carry on despite our short comings…. The old Dollar Index is up a couple of basis points to start the day today, which will be dominated by the FOMC Meeting announcement this afternoon.  Gold is up $5 to start the day today, and Silver is down 15-cents…  Another day of strangeness in the metals… You can expect the short paper traders to be standing by awaiting the FOMC this afternoon…  Either way, they’ll be in the markets with their arms full of short paper trades… If the Fed gives us a Jumbo Rate cut,  the short paper traders will be in to keep Gold & Silver from running higher, and if the Fed gives us a 25 Basis Points rate cut, and says that they will be data dependent for future cuts, the short paper traders will assist those selling Gold…. So, either way, it looks like a day where Gold & Silver need to take cover, batten down the hatches, and wait for the Good Witch Glinda to tell them when it’s safe to come out again… 

The price of Oil slipped back to trade with a $70 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 3.68%… The traders in both these asset classes are not taking any chances out on a limb, with the FOMC hanging over them like the Sword of Damocles… 

Very Longtime readers know that I’ve been banging the drum about our country’s national debt for many years now…   And each year, the deficit spending grows, and so does out national Debt… I remember a time back in the Bush II years, when the National Debt was reported to be $7.5 Trillion… And I thought it was too high then! 

The beat goes on…… The beat goes on…  In August, the U.S. took in $307 Billion in taxes and fees… But spent $687 Billion, thus another deficit spending month of $380 Billion…. Now, stay with me here… If the U.S. deficit spent $380 Billion every month, the addition to our National Debt would be $ 3.696 Trillion…   So, I guess we need to be happy with little favors, that even though our addition to the National Debt will be more than $2 Trillion this year, it isn’t $3.7 Trillion!

We, as a country, that is if we don’t default before then, will be at $50 Trillion in the next decade… The costs of servicing the debt (interest payments) will take away spending on other things that the lawmakers like to spend money on… Whatchamcallis and thingamajings… Giving money away for first home buyers, and the rest of the stupid deficit spending they like to do… So, bye, bye, Miss American Pie… (Don McClean) to all that stuff… 

Unfortunately, I believe we’ll have defaulted on our debt before we get to $50 Trillion…  I’m just saying…. Got Gold? 

Speaking of Gold… I had a dear reader write to me and ask me to talk about  “If the government is successful in forcing us into CBDC’s, then my gold will be by default, under their control when I need to sell some..

So other that barter, what good will it be? How is it protecting my saving in this scenario? “

Chuck again… Well, in the meantime, Gold is there to protect your wealth from a weaker dollar, and inflation… Both of which are coming… It will still protect you from inflation that will be rampant after going to CBDC’s because lawmakers will see this as all green lights ahead to keep deficit spend… Gold will always be worth something to you, history shows us that to be true… 

Speaking of CBDCs… Good friend, Dennis Miller and I worked together on an article that he will be putting out next week, about digital currencies… Be sure to stay tuned, same bat channel, same bat time, next Thursday…  of course, as always you can read what the “retirementor” has to say by clicking here: www.milleronthemoney.com

In May of 2020, I first wrote about digital currencies and told you then that they would be coming to the U.S., and that it would then be time to call your representatives and tell them “no!”…  apparently, this was not done, or the representative didn’t listen to you, because digital currency is now onshore… This was a case of something being evident, but not imminent…  Well, it’s becoming imminent sooner than you would imagine…. The great John Lennon wrote a song titled Imagine… Imagine no possessions, wonder if you can…   

Those words to the song remind me of the book that I talked about last winter that I read by David Rogers titled: The Great Taking…   I won’t spoil the book for you, but when you do read it, you’ll see how I put two and two together here…  Got Gold? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the August Retail Sales, which were positive by .1%, but as a read reader pointed out to me: “when they are adjusted for inflation, they were neutral or DOWN. ”    So, the BHI wasn’t so wrong after all!  That’s good to know!   We also saw Industrial Production turn around July’s -.9% print, and book a positive gain of .8% in August… More Election Year math?  Probably… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the FOMC meeting, and that’s it, except for some housing data… 

To recap… Traders got tired of sitting around twiddling their thumbs, and decided to buy some dollars, Not much, mind you, and take some profits in the metals… Chuck has some hair-raising numbers on our Nation’s Debt in August… YIKES!  And Chuck talks about CBGC’s and other things on his mind this morning… 

For What It’s Worth…. Ok, I had to pick out stuff that I wanted to highlight from this article by Russ & Pam Martens, that talked about fraud in cryptocurrency trading, and it can be found here: As Trump Launches a Crypto Firm, FBI Reports Crypto Fraud Has Exploded to $5.6 Billion; Representing Almost 50 Percent of All Financial Fraud (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Last Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on combating financial frauds against consumers. During the hearing, Senator Jon Tester of Montana held up his mobile phone and said: “Every day, every day, I either get an email or a phone call from somebody who’s trying to screw me out of my money.”

According to the FBI, it is highly likely that a large number of the people trying to screw both you and Senator Tester out of your money are crypto fraudsters. On September 9, the FBI released its 2023 report on crypto fraud, which made the following findings:

“In 2023, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received more than 69,000 complaints from the public regarding financial fraud involving the use of cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin, ether, or tether. Estimated losses with a nexus to cryptocurrency totaled more than $5.6 billion.”

“While the number of cryptocurrency-related complaints represents only about 10 percent of the total number of financial fraud complaints, the losses associated with these complaints account for almost 50 percent of the total losses.”

“The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency, the speed of irreversible transactions, and the ability to transfer value around the world make cryptocurrency an attractive vehicle for criminals, while creating challenges to recover stolen funds.” (Bold emphasis on the word “irreversible” was added by Wall Street On Parade.)”

Chuck again… OK, wasn’t the main reason for taking away cash in favor of digital currency about how cash was so easily used by criminals?   But see what happened here?  It’s now attractive for criminals too, but it’s just passed on by like a summer day…  I shake my head in disgust here folks… 

Market Prices 9/18/2024: American Style: A$ .6775, kiwi .6222, C$ .7357, euro 1.1120, sterling 1.3211, Swiss $1.1844, European Style: rand 17.5829, krone 10.5824, SEK 10.1876, forint 354.48, zloty 3.8952, koruna 22.5374, RUB 91.84, yen 141.88, sing 1.2940, HKD 7.7933, INR 83.75, China 7.0835, peso 19.13, BRL 5.4864, Dollar Index 100.86, Oil $70.67, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $30.58, Platinum $978.00, Palladium $1,113.00, Copper $4.29, and Gold $2,575.00

That’s it for today… Man, I don’t know what or how I did this, but I took a chunk out of my chin, shaving on Monday… Now it looks like I got into a fight with Mike Tyson, and he bit my chin!  My beloved Cardinals didn’t find their bat until late in the game yesterday, but not too late to pull out a win VS the Pirates… Cardinals fans have taken to not attending the games, which is weird, because even in the depths of the 70’s, the stands were always pretty full… Fans are protesting the Gen Manager, and Field Manager…  It will be interesting to see what happens there in the off-season… Sugar Ray takes us to the finish line today with their song: Every Morning…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar selling stops on Monday…
• But dollar buying didn’t replace it!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What an awful night of sleep, or more precisely, lack of sleep! I’m planning on returning to my recliner as soon as I hit send this morning…  Well, my beloved Cardinals are the only team in baseball that has hung 2n losses on Pirates pitching sensation, P. Skenes… To data, that is…  And the Monday Night Football game had quite an ending to it, so sports-wise it was a good evening…Neon Trees greet me this morning with their song: Everybody Talks…

And that’s very apropos this morning, because that’s what’s going on… You’ve got half the markets saying they believe the Fed Heads will cut 50 Basis Points, and you’ve got the other half saying the cut will be 25 Basis Points…  here’s Bloomberg.com with their take on this talk in the bond market: ” Not since the lead-up to the financial crisis have bond traders been so divided about the outcome of the next Federal Reserve decision.

With only two days to go, whether Fed policymakers will cut interest rates by a quarter-point or a half point is considered a tossup in US interest-rate markets. Except for the Fed’s emergency rate cut in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic, that’s the greatest amount of doubt in interest-rate swap markets for any scheduled US central bank decision since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

Chuck again… OK, that’s a long intro to say that the dollar selling stopped yesterday, with a feeling that it has been overdone, since they don’t really know for sure which way the Fed Takes go with a rate cut.  There was no dollar buying either though… And the BBDXY starts today at the same level it was yesterday morning, 1,222…. But the currencies all look healthier to get out of their respective sick beds… The euro is moving higher in the 1.11 handle, and don’t look now, but the Chinese renminbi has been allowed to rally further and trades this morning with a 7.09 handle…. 

Gold was pushed around a bit yesterday by the short paper traders, and was only allowed to gain $4, and Silver was held in check by the short paper traders and closed down ½ of a cent….   Here’s Ed Steer from his newsletter this morning: “There should be no doubt in one’s mind that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were out and about in both Globex and COMEX trading on Monday…as they weren’t about to let that decline in the dollar index be reflected in silver and gold prices. With ultra light volumes in both, for reasons that escape me, they had a very easy time of it.”  – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil slipped a bit in the last 24 hours and trades this morning at $69.95….  And the confusion in the bond market right now that was discussed above is playing out in the 10-year’s yield, which trades with q 3.67$ yield. This morning…  

There was no movement in anything that I follow in the overnight markets last night, as it appears that the markets have now gone into a holding pattern awaiting the FOIMC decision that won’t come until tomorrow afternoon..  I should take that back because Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is up 2-cents…  So, you could say that’s no movement or you could make a big deal out of it… I’m just saying… 

This is one of those 2-day meetings for the Fed Heads, I’ve always contended that these boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. Don’t have anything to discuss that would take them two days to accomplish… So, I’ve always also contended that instead of discussing stuff they Fed Heads get out the boar games and play games until the time for them to make the decision….  I can hear them shouting, By Joe, you’ve sunk my battleship!   Or, Oh no, not the sugarplum drops card!   Really if you use your imagination, you can see them playing board games to pass the time before they have to make a decision tomorrow afternoon… 

That’s silly, Chuck… Just goes to prove that I’m not a big ogre, that talks about gloom and doom all the time! 

I saw a report from Lola this morning…. For those of you new to class, Lola is aka for Goldman Sachs… The Behemoth Casino Bank that usually issues a call on some asset or something else and voila, it happens…  So, what Lola wants, Lola gets….  OK… We’ve gotten that out of the way… The report from Lola this morning, says that Gold will suffer if the Fed Heads opt for just 25 Basis Points rate cut…

Chuck again… Ahem… But Lola, that doesn’t take into consideration what FOMC Chairman, Jerome Powell, says to the press afterwards… If he says, something to the order of: This is the just the start of a rate cut cycle… Then all bets on the size are off, because like I explained yesterday, the FOMC has 3 more meetings before year-end, and it’s quite possible that they could cut rates at each of those meetings, which would bring the Fed Funds rate down 100 Basis Points or 1 full percent!   

Please note that I said, “could cut rates at each of the next 3 meeting” not that they “would”, because no one knows for sure what the FOMC is going to do now, much less in the next 3 months…. I mean, we all know the FOMC will cut rates tomorrow, but, the size of the cut is in question for the markets…. Me? I’ve pinned my colors to the mast of a 25 Basis Point cut, and I’m not taking the down… 

OK, I’m finished talking bout the rate cut tomorrow… But Chuck, what will you talk about other than a rate cut? 

Hmmm…. Ok, then I’ll just to the Big Finish and put this to bed, if you say so!

But before we go to the Big Finish this morning, I wanted to point something out that just ticked me off to the nth degree…  In the New Your Times they said this about our constitution: ““One of the biggest threats to America’s politics might be the country’s founding document.”   Wait, What?  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?  Well, at least I had to have the Good folks at the Heritage Foundation send me that, because I boycotted the NYT years ago. For saying stuff like that! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has already seen the color of the August Retail Sales report, which showed an increase of just.1%… That was better than expected, by the forecasts and the BHI…  Wel’ll also see the color of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization in just a bit…  

To recap… The dollar selling stopped yesterday, and Chuck feels like the markets have gone into a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC meeting decision tomorrow afternoon…  I think that if Retail Sales for August has printed a HUGE downward move, then that could have moved the Fed Heads to a larger rate cut… But it didn’t, so we’ll move long now for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

For What it’s Worth…  This article came to me directly from the Good folks at GATA, and it features one of their golden boys, Brien Lundin, who is the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference, the grandaddy of all investment conferences…  Anyway, Brien talks about $2,600 Gold, and it can be found here: September 16, 2024 – Gold Newsletter – $2,600 GoldChanges Everything

Or, here’s your snippet: “$2,500 $2,600 Gold

Changes Everything

I’ve had to revise my analysis of just a few weeks ago, as the price of gold has once again rocketed to new “big number” levels.

This is about the 35th record high for gold this year — but this time is different. Here’s what most analysts are missing…

The turn has come.

For the last six months, I’ve explained why this was an historic new gold bull market, but also why it was different from any other before it.

That’s because it was being driven by central bank and Chinese buying, which had never happened before in combination, much less as the price was rising.

Another key difference: Western investors were absent. That’s because they couldn’t project how long central banks and investors in China would continue buying.

I’ve also explained in recent months why this was going to change as the Fed’s long-awaited pivot approached. A shift from monetary tightening to easing was something Western investors could understand and project ahead for years.

This would be the catalyst for the next big leg in the metals.

And so it happened. As predicted, gold started taking off in early July as big money in hedge funds, family offices and institutions began adding gold:

Gold has just barreled through $2,600, while the Dollar Index has bounced off of support at 100. If — and when — the DXY falls through 100, I think both trends will accelerate.

This Changes Everything…Even More

When gold broke through $2,500, I told you that “this changes everything.” I noted how even the wildest gold bug plays, the companies with huge projects that were uneconomic at then current gold prices, had suddenly become exceptionally profitable.

 These companies were still selling for pennies on the dollar compared with what they’d sell for in a normal gold market, much less one that was breaking records day after day.

But still, the broader market was failing to notice.

Now, however, with gold miners reporting blow-out cash flows and gold breaking through $2,600 with ease…it’s all starting to change.”

Chuck again… Yes, a long snippet this morning, but I think Brien’s words needed to be heard…  So, if you want to hear more from Brien, simply click the link above… 

Market Prices 9/17/2024: American Style: A$ .6761, kiwi .6197, C$ .7458, Euro 1.1135, sterling 1.3213, Swiss $1.1841, European Style: rand 17.6340, krone 10.5890, SEK 10.1691, forint 354.38, zloty 3.8336, koruna 22.5746, RUB 91.35, yen 140.70, sing 1.2934, HKD 7.7918, INR 83.79, China 7.0972, peso 19.31, BRL 5.5043, BBDXY 1,2222.70, Dollar Index 100.75, Oil $69.96, 10-year 3.67%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $982.00, Palladium $1,091.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold… $2,578.40

That’s it for today… Well, I spoke too soon yesterday, saying that I didn’t have any doctor appointments next week… I reported to my oncologist that I had begun taking the chemo again, and she called to tell me that I needed to get in for lab work… So, that will happen next Monday morning, so no Pfennig on Monday, next week… Cardinals find their bats late in the game last night, that means they’ll have lost them again for tonight’s game… UGH! The whole world is watching the Fed Heads and what they will do… I find this to be somewhat interesting…  Don’t you?  Maybe not, eh? Well… It’s what’s on the Agenda for today and tomorrow, so you’ve got that going for you, eh? Pink Floyd takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Money….  this sone is from the Dark Side of the Moon album which at one time held the record for the longest time in the Top 10 albums sold…   It’s still a heavy seller these days!  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler