Category: Uncategorized

• The metals get taken down, like at no other time!
• Taking away our paper checks?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you… Well, to prove that all good plans of mice and men may often go awry… I made a major faux pas with buying a gift for my wife.. What a dolt I am! Hopefully all will be worked out today… My infusion 10 days ago, finally caught up with me yesterday and my stomach problems returned… UGH!  I got some medicine for it last night, so hopefully, that takes care of it! We are hosting a New Year’s Eve Party this year, our friends will be here, and I have a special surprise for them at Midnight…  Simple Minds greet me this morning with their 80’s song: Don’t You (Forget about me) 

Well.. All the euphoria in the metals was taken away yesterday, much like the chaperone that takes away the spiked punch bowl… I wish it were that silly… The profit taking and the short sellers combined to send Gold & Silver back to where they were last week… Silver was down $7 and Gold was down $200… Yes, that’s right Gold was down $200 yesterday…  It was the opposite of the gains the metals made last Friday…  So, we start over again at getting the metals moving in the right direction… 

The dollar was bought a bit yesterday, as the BBDXY gained 1 index point on Monday.  All the Armageddon that surrounded the markets on Friday, was knocked for a loop yesterday… It will be interesting to see how the metals react today… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $57 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw another BP taken from its price yesterday. The 10-year closed the day at 4.11% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, Gold & Silver has fought back… Silver is up $3 to start the day, and Gold is up $38… There was more buying in the dollar, and the BBDXY picked up another index point to start the day at 1,202…  I’m more confused about what’s going on in Silver than I was yesterday… But then what else is new?  

The price of Oil bumped higher again to trade this morning with a $58 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury is floundering around 4.13% this morning… back and forth, C’mon bond boys, pick a lane and stay there! 

I received an email from a reader yesterday that explained the run up in the price of Silver that doesn’t have anything to do with the physical Silver shortage, or the crazy wild demand for physical Siver… It has to do with futures contracts that are traded like they are at a casino… It’s a very long explanation, so I won’t get into it here, but  i will say that it involves the COMEX’s change in Silver futures expirations from once a month to 3 per week… This scares the bejeebers out of me…  What happens when the casino players decide to walk away from Silver and play a new game?  I’ll tell you what…  long ago in a galaxy far away, I was the “go-to” guy when the media wanted to know what’s going on in the currencies and metals… 

And I received a phone call from a writer for a major magazine, and she wanted to know about what was going on in Silver, as it had rallied big time and was approaching $50…  I told her that Silver was the working man’s Gold, as it was far cheaper to buy than Gold…  And that I thought Silver would get to $59 and then who knows how high it would go?   

And right after the magazine came out, the casino players walked away from Silver, and soon it dropped to $30, then $20… Where it remained for quite a few years…  So, it has happened before, and it will happen again, just when, is anyone’s guess… Maybe after Silver reaches $100 or before that, I just don’t know.  I never heard from that magazine writer again… I wonder if she lost her job, or just decided to treat me a persona non-gratis… 

OK, let’s move on, talking about all of this depresses me… UGH!  The Chinese renminbi, as I told you yesterday, had briefly slipped below the 7 figure but had closed back above it, did go below the 7 figure overnight and this time it stayed there. Remember the renminbi is a European Style currency, which means the lower the price VS the dollar is a good thing because it takes less of the currency to buy a dollar…  So, falling below the 7 figure is good for renminbi holders, who have had to endure years of a weaker currency to the dollar.  

Of course, a lot of the cause of the weakness has been the Chinese’s preference of a weaker currency to aid their exports… This is what the POTUS is always carping about, how we need a weaker dollar…  of course a weak currency invites inflation into your counrty, so there’s that to think about…  Which is why inflation was held back here in the U.S. as the dollar was stronger, but now the weak dollar trend has been triggered, and who knows what will be the outcome for inflation, here in the U.S. given the economy has to deal with 1. Expanded money supply, 2. Lower interest rates, and now 3. A weaker dollar…

And then finally today, regarding Silver… Ed Steer highlighted this comment in his letter this morning and I thought after all the doom and gloom I talked about in Silver above, that this would be good to finish with…  “It is the most blatant act of financial warfare we have witnessed in quite some time. As you read this, the price of silver in New York is being smashed to ~$72, a manufactured, low-volume paper crash designed to steal your position. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the physical market in Shanghai is screaming, with silver trading at a staggering $83. This is not a spread; it is a divorce.

The paper market of the West and the physical market of the East have been torn apart, and the ~$11 gap between them is the fuse that is about to ignite the most violent price explosion in modern history.

What we are witnessing is a trap, a final, desperate shakeout by the Western banking cartel to steal our silver just days before the world changes forever. Do not fall for it!”

Chuck again… yes, it’s a quite something to see Silver priced in the U.S. and in China being so different, but… I told you years ago, when the Shanghai Metals Exchange was first announced, that this would, in time, lead to the SPTs to become small players, that in China they would not allow the kind of manipulations that the COMEX and U.S. allow…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index for Rocktober this morning… With the rate cuts already started in that time frame, I would expect that home prices to rise and end the trend of monthly drops in the data… I guess, we’ll see, eh?

And I guess this falls under data… In line with taking away the penny… the Fed Heads announced that they were looking into ending paper checks… what will they think to end next?

To recap… The “fix was in” on the metals yesterday… It was an engineered shorting like we’ve never seen before and it tood Silver down $7 and Gold down $200… We’re back to last week’s figures for these two… Chuck explains what happened, sort of, and how this has happened previously, back when Chuck was the “go-to” for currencies and metals for the media… Hey! We all get old, and become “has beens”…. I’m just saying…  There’s a difference between the price of Silver in China and the in the U.S., and I’m not talking a couple of buck difference either!

For What It’s Worth…  I pulled this from the World Gold Council’s web site because these guys don’t usually get it right when they talk about Gold, but this time they did! The article is about how Central Banks are still buying physical Gold at a break neck pace and it can be found here: Central Bank Gold Statistics: Central banks ramp up gold buying in October | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council

Or, here’s your snippet: “Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totalling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year. Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.

Y-t-d reported net purchases through October totalled 254t, a slower pace when compared with the previous three years (Chart 2). This possibly reflects the impact of higher prices. Even so, sustained activity from emerging-market central banks – supported by the findings from our annual survey – strongly suggests that these purchases are strategic rather than opportunistic, reinforcing gold’s importance amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.

The buyer cohort in October was dominated by names we’ve seen throughout the year, with a handful of central banks accounting for the bulk of additions:

The National Bank of Poland re-entered the market in October, having paused its buying since May. After recently increasing its target gold allocation to 30%,1 the purchase of 16t in the month lifted its gold reserves to 531t, 26% of total reserves at end-October prices.

The Central Bank of Brazil bought gold for the second consecutive month, adding 16t in October following its 15t purchase in September. Its gold reserves now stand at 161t, accounting for 6% of total reserves.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (9t), Bank Indonesia (4t), Central Bank of Turkey (3t), Czech National Bank (2t), National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2t), Bank of Ghana (>1t), People’s Bank of China (>1t), National Bank of Kazakhstan (>1t) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (>1t) were also buyers in October.

At the time of writing, the Central Bank of Russia was the only bank to report a decline in gold reserves in the month – falling by 3t to 2,327t.

Year-to-date, the National Bank of Poland (83t) continues to be largest official-sector gold buyer, with double the purchases of the next largest buyer, Kazakhstan (41t) (Chart 3). While buying continues to be concentrated among emerging-market central banks, the list of buyers – old and new – remains broad.”

Chuck again… this is important stuff folks… follow the money, and the money leads to Central Banks buying physical Gold… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/30/2025: American Style: A$ .6697, kiwi .5799, C$ .7300, euro 1.1758, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2650, European Style: rand 16.6227, krone 10.0558, SEK 9.1956, forint 328.13, zloty 3.5925, koruna 20.6135, RUB 79.34, yen 156.27, sing 1.2844, HKD 7.7829, INR 89.78, China 6.9958, peso 17.95, BRL 5.4969, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.13, Oil $58.46, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $75.45, Platinum $2,214.00, Palladium $1,687.00, Copper $5.72, and Gold… $4,371… 

That’s it for today, Sorry about how tardy the letter is today… The alarm went off and I ignored it… I slept most of yesterday, don’t know why, but then had difficulty going to sleep last night, and then when I did finally nod off, I didn’t want to wake up!  Something is awry here… I guess I’ll find out what it is eventually… Our Blues jumped out to a lead last night, but ended up losing, yet again on home ice… UGH!  Home ice used to mean something in ice hockey… Oh well, having cash in your pocket used to mean something too…  The temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: I Wish It Would Rain…  a great song by the way…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Silver has a day for the ages!
• Economic data is not good…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope everyone had a very Blessed Christmas, and if you don’t celebrate the Good Lord’s birth, then I hope you had a wonderful weekend.  How was your Christmas?  Mine was grand as all the kids were here along with the grandkids… Family is what matters to me, and I enjoy having my family around me all the time… The Marshall Tucker Band greets me this morning with their great song: Heard It In A Love Song

Well, I was all prepared had it cued up and all to send you a Pfennig last Tuesday that alerted you to how the Big Bullion Banks and The COMEX were in cahoots to cheat Silver holder and buyers to be… I had seen a YOUTUBE explaining it all, but then I got to thinking..  No one else was writing about this cheating, and so I didn’t send it out, and later found out that it probably wasn’t true… at this time… 

But the COMEX did raise the margin on futures contracts in both Gold & Silver last week, just not when I thought they had.  Gold to $22 and Silver to $27…  I’ll let Ed Steer explain how this all plays out math-wise:  here’s Ed “So if you’re short on one COMEX contract, your margin call requirements that month worked out to $135,000 per contract…$27×5,000 troy ounces. That doesn’t include the approximately 70 cent roll-over/switch charge per ounce from December into March that the CME imposes…so tack on a further $3,500 on top of that per contract. We’re talking about serious money here…especially if you’re a smaller trader. The Big 8 commercial traders are short 59,180 contracts/295.900 million troy ounces — and I’ll let you do the math on that. It’s a frightening number.

The icing on the cake for all the shorts…small, medium and large…was the margin call they got on that $7+ rally in silver yesterday.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Yes, so the Silver $7 rally on Friday to end the week at $79.39 was so full of short covering by the SPTs and then sprinkle in some new long buys and you have a rally for the ages!  Remember when I told you after Silver traded above $70 the first time? I said, “That Silver will reach $80 much faster than it took it to reach $70 from $60” And lookie here.. I couldn’t believe my eye when I first looked at the metals screen and saw the $7 rally in Silver.. I mentioned before I went on vacation, that the SPTs are caught in a trap, on one side they have these HUMONGOUS margin calls for their shorts, but if they go to close the shorts out, that means they have to buy Silver and that will cause an even larger rally in Silver…  And that’s exactly what we saw last week… 

Gold also rallied on Friday and ended the week at $4,533… One month ago, Silver was $52… So, a $27 rally in a month…  Pretty crazy, eh?  Well, onto $100 I guess.. 

The dollar spent last week getting sold, and ended the week with the BBDXY at 1,200…  Gold at $4,533, Silver at $79.27, Oil at $56, and the 10-year at 4.13% yield. It was not a “Santa Rally” for the dollar… 

In the overnight markets last night…  What the heck went on here? Silver is down $4 to start the day/ week this morning, and Gold is down $70!  Just when you think the SPTs have had their day, and have gone away, they come back with a vengeance…  And the dollar saw some buying overnight, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points this morning… Last night before I retired, the BBDXY had fallen to 1198… But I guess the PPT came in and intervened to get the dollar from falling further. 

Goldman Sachs, aka Lola says that “Gold is our favorite long commodity”…  And Kitco.com reports this morning that 57% of people polled are of the belief that Silver will get to $100 this next year.  So, I wanted to include those things to even out the selling going on in Gold & Silver…

The price of Oil bumped higher to a $57 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw some buying and the yield starts the day today at 4.12%..

So, when I was on the trading desk at EverBank World Markets, and I would go on vacation, the remaining crew on the desk would claim, “When Chuck’s away, the currencies and metals rally”… And they would be really screaming it now, because while I was away, the dollar sunk, Gold & Silver rallied as if they were going out of business, and all was right in the world of markets again… 

The dollar has really sunk, especially after the 3^rd QTR GDP showed that, once again, if your Gov’t spends enough, they can pump up the GDP…. 3^rd QTR GDP printed at 4.35%… So, now, all the town criers that were calling for another rate cut at the next meeting, have slunk back into the caves, like Snuff The Magic Dragon, and all bets are off now… Now to me, that GDP print was utterly ridiculous!  Factory Orders are down, Industrial Production is down, Capacity Utilization hasn’t moved,  but… Money Supply is soaring…  GDP has officially become a piece of data that I don’t care about any longer, because of its falseness… 

The Chinese renminbi was traded below he 7 handle for a brief time on Friday,  It hasn’t been this strong VS the dollar since Sept 2024… So, the main competition for exports for the U.S. is allowing their currency to strengthen… I guess they aren’t worried about how expensive their currency is for their exports… 

The BBDXY when I left you on 12/17 was 1,208…  This morning the BBDXY is 1202 …  The dollar had already begun its drop before I went on vacation… The BBDXY had reached as high as 1,213, and on 12/15 I even headlined a Pfennig with ” The Dollar Returns To Its Underlying Weak Trend”…   So, this wasn’t just a “Chuck’s away” rally for the currencies, but it was a bit of:  “Chuck’s away” so let’s play some more for the currencies… 

The price of Oil has fallen to a $56 handle… I have changed my outlook for the price of Oil… With weaker demand, and all the tanker shipping problems, I see the price of Oil falling below $50 in the new year…   The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 4.13%… You would think that if the thoughts of an additional rate cut next month were put on the back burner, that the yield would go higher….  But the Fed Heads were there to prevent that from happening, I suspect… 

As in past years, the last week of the year all the forecasters come out of the woodwork and opine about how they see the new year going… I won’t be joining them because my viewpoint is a long-term view..  But I will add that I really think that the rallies in Silver and Gold for 2025 are really impressive… Gold is up 70% this year, and Silver is up 140%!!  But book those gains, and put them away… I feel that while Gold & Silver will continue to rally in 2026, that their gains in 2025 will be their best efforts.. I hope I’m incorrect in that thought, that Gold & Silver better 2025 gains in 2026… You won’t be mad at me if I’m incorrect here, will you? I didn’t think so…  But basically, when you calculate the percentage gain from $2,000 to $4,500 it’s astronomical, but… when you calculate the gain from $4,500 to $7000 since you’re dealing with larger numbers the percentage gain isn’t as lofty…  That’s all I’m saying here… The percentage gains will not be as lofty as they were in 2025… 

Jim Rickards said that since Gold is on a bull run that it could very well be at 10,000 by the end of the new year…  But before you celebrate, think about that for a minute, if Gold is $10,000 that means something is terribly wrong or already has gone wrong in the U.S. and its economy…  I’m just saying…

I’ve said for some time now that I thought the U.S. Financial System would collapse and I still feel that way… When? Only the Shadow Knows… 

The euro is stuck in the mud right now… you would’ve thought that the euro would benefit from a weaker dollar, and it has but not as strongly as I would have thought. The rest of the currencies are looking a little healthier this morning, with the Russian ruble standing out as the best performing currency vs the dollar… See what the talk of a peace agreement can do? So, how’s that diversification going? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had two reports (Oct & Nov) for each data print, with Rocktober’s prints being much worse than the Nov print…  You see, they can’t go back and make adjustments once the data has printed, so they just said, oh well, we’ll make up for it with the Nov. Prints…   

This week the Data Cupboard is basiclly empty, it will have a sprinkling of non-market moving prints but that’s it…  So, the dollar is on its own this week, and so far it doesn’t look like it will be good week for the dollar… 

To recap… Silver rallied by $7 or 10% on Friday, and in China it traded over $80… But here in the U.S. where the SPTs still have some say, Silver stayed below $80 into the weekend… Gold also rallied and ended the week above $4,500.. The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Chuck has changed his outlook for the price of Oil… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this article comes to us from the Good Folks at GATA, and it’s about the real story driving the prices of Gold & Silver higher and it can be found on the GATA site, but unless you’re a subscriber you won’t be able to see the entire article, but… I have the most of it…

Here’s your snippet: “To hear mainstream financial news organizations and analysts tell it, gold and silver have been flying because of:

— The decline of the U.S. dollar.

— International disorder sparked by the war between Russia and Ukraine, or the West’s war against Russia through its Ukrainian proxy.

— The seizure by the U.S. government and Western European governments of Russian foreign exchange assets.

— Heavy buying of gold by central banks seeking some independence from the dollar and U.S. foreign policy.

— The unstoppable increase in U.S. government and Western European government debt.

— Strong industrial demand for silver.

Of course there is something to all those things. But the mainstream carefully overlooks what is likely the biggest cause of the stunning revival of the monetary metals: the long-overdue calling of the short derivatives positions in both metals that has been operated for decades by the U.S. government, its closest allies, and their bullion bank agents.

Delivery of real metal now is being demanded against paper claims on metal, claims that were issued by bullion banks that never had to deliver it, thereby allowing gold and silver supplies to be oversubscribed by as much as 90 or 100 to 1.

Only a short squeeze can plausibly explain the violent price action in silver today, when the metal rose in price by as much as $7 or 10%. One-day action like that in the metals has not been seen for decades.

The squeeze is evident in the huge discrepancy between prices in Shanghai, India, London, and New York. Prices in Shanghai and India are far higher, creating an arbitrage opportunity that has been draining metal out of the West, metal that in many cases has multiple owners and isn’t readily available.

Examining this angle — the creation of vast imaginary supplies of the monetary metals in order to protect the dollar as the world reserve currency, maintain faith in U.S. government debt, and impoverish the rest of the world — might explode what’s left of the world’s political order, an unjust, imperialistic order that should be exploded.

Examining this angle also might fatally discredit the mainstream news organizations and analysts who aren’t capable of honesty in a matter so important.”

Chuck again…  I would really like to see the look on the faces of those that told me not to write about short selling to manipulate Gold & Silver years ago…  All those yerars ago… I was about ready to walk out the door because they wouldn’t let me say what I wanted to say… But realizing that I had the best job I could have, and I needed to support my family, so.. I tucked my tail between my legs, and went back to my desk…  I still alluded to the short selling, but never really came out and called the manipulation for what it was…. 

Market Prices 12/29/25: American Style: A$.6685, kiwi .5792, C$ .7300, euro 1.1760, sterling 1.3477, Swiss $1.2645, European Style: rand 16.6377, krone 10.0546, SEK 9.1909, forint 329.62, zloty 3.5954, koruna 20.6447, RUB 77.67, yen 156.36, sing 1.2859, HKD 7.7740, INR 88.98, China 7.0068, peso 17.91, BRL 5.6664, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.14, Oil $57.96, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $75.05, Platinum $2,323.00, Palladium $1,740.00, Copper $5.60, and Gold… $4,464

That’s it for today….  Just today, tomorrow and Wednesday for writing this week, and then we say goodbye to 2025…  And the next time I write to you, after Wednesday, I will be in my winter home, and it will be 2026… My beloved Mizzou Tigers laid an egg at the Gator Bowl game and lost… UGH! And Kathy celebrated her birthday (day after Christmas) by doing nothing! She deserved to do nothing, after all the Christmas stuff she worked on!  It was 65 degrees on Christmas, so obviously, no White Christmas for us…  Where was that 65 degrees the year I received a new bike for Christmas when I was a youngster?  Marmalade takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Reflections of My Life… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

When I was reading The Night Before

Christmas to my daugher’s kindergarten class. I said to myself, I wonder how many times this classic has been read.  Too many for me to even think of, but that got me thinking… And I came up with a thought that I would dust off a previous year’s Christmas Pfenning in hopes that it gets read again! So with no further Ado…

T’was the night before Christmas

And all through the house

The occupants were congratulating each other

For their stimulus, but  not me

I’m such a grouch!

The debt level in this country

Has gotten out of control

But I’ve cried wolf for years

And still the spenders are on a roll.

The stockings were hung by the Chimney with care

In hopes that St. Nicholas would seen be there.

My grandkids I hope are all nestled in bed

With visions of PlayStations, and games

Dancing in their heads…

When on my laptop screen I saw such clatter

I had to click on to see what was the matter

$900 Billion more is being printed from thin air

And no one in Washington DC seem to care…

People that don’t make much will soon get a check

Let’s hope it keeps them from becoming a wreck!

 I went to the window to yell at the walls

And outside were carolers singing Deck The Halls…

And then with a blink of an eye did appear?

But a miniature sleigh and 8 flying reindeer!

This must be Santa, with gifts for all the girls and boys

I hope he has something for me

And I’m not talking about toys…

I’m hoping that he has cleared the air

Of this virus, and we can get back to life

Instead of going outside on a dare…

I’m hoping that 2021 is full of joy and happiness

So that we can forget 2020

But that will be so difficult, no less…

Now I’ve forgotten all about the markets

And the manipulations, and dots and twits

It’s time for Christmas, and besides those

Things give me the fits!

My grandkids are ready to see what Santa brought them

And I whistled and shouted and called them by name

On Delaney, On Everett, On Braden, and little Evie

To the living room we go to open our gifts

But remember please that the greatest gift of all

Is what we call Christmas Day… When

The Good Lord was born…

So, with all the calamity going on

I sneak out of site,

And say a prayer that this scene can go on forever…

And then I saw Santa and his reindeer, take off

And I heard him exclaim

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a Good Night!

Chuck Butler, Christmas 2020 reprinted 2025

PS… I always include a little message at this time, so here goes..

May the light & warmth of the season bring comfort & joy

To your family and friends this Christmas Season…

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I know, I know, I’m on vacation… But.. This is HUGE!  Apparently, last Friday, The Casino Banks who are short Silver are being tested and it could be the end of their shorting, or even the end of their existence… 

Silver closed last Friday above $67… The banks have a credit limit on the margin that that hold their shorts at $65…  So, they tried to enter tons of short trades after the markets on Friday to get the price back below $65… And then when the market opened on Monday the sells would be recorded and people would panic and sell, which is what the Casino Banks wanted them to do… 

But… They didn’t sell… the bought the dip and closed yesterday up $2.00 and only $1 from $70…  The banks are scrambling, folks… This is going to get real ugly for them…  You see, if the Casino Banks wanted to close out their shorts, that would be buying Silver and that would drive up the price more… They are caught with their pants down folks…  As of December 22, 2025, reports from financial markets indicate that the price of Silver has reached approximately $71 to $73 USD per ounce in Shanghai, trading at a premium compared to Western markets. The general live spot price for silver is around $69.90 USD per ounce at the COMEX exchange… Either price spells disaster for the Short Paper Banks…    

The Comex could help them by announcing Force Majeure…  That means no buys will be accepted, to stop the price from rising, and only sells would be accepted… What would Large Companies that use Silver, like Toyota, Tesla, Samsung, etc. would NOT be nice about not being able to buy Silver or at least hedge their future buys… 

Then last night the Casino Banks got together and told the COMEX their problems.. The Comex raised the margin requirement… The doubled the amount of margin required on a futures contract…  The Casino Banks see Silver going to $75 and from there it’s a straight line to $100… Then bankruptcy for the Casino Banks…   The Comex is changing the rules on the fly to help the Casino Banks.. And now the Casino Banks are spoofing the Silver markets to get holders to sell.. The entered a sell for 5,000,000 ounces of Silver to get people to think that everyone is selling…  Spoofing is a trick that sent 3 traders to jail a few years ago… In Spoofing you enter a buy or sell in this case to show the world that Silver is getting sold, but before they have to pay for the trade… They cancel the trade as if it didn’t exist…  And then the game of Spoofing goes on and on…  

So, if 3 traders got sent to jail for this, why wouldn’t someone take the Casino Banks to court? The precedence has been set…  

So, like I’ve always told you about the SPTs… If everyone bought physical metal that would stop the SPTs… And now in Silver, it appears that China is going to make sure that rule changes at the COMEX don’t apply to them, and they’ll be buying…   

And to think… I was once called on the carpet because of my short Silver and Gold, Conspiracy Theories… Well, they have become Conspiracy FACT!  I bet those that pointed me out have egg on their faces now… I can only hope! 

Oh well… enough on this… I Am on Vacation!  Oh, and Silver this morning is $69.66

This public Service announcement has been brought to you by: Battle Bank a non-Casino Bank…Get on their waitlist at www.battlebank.com

Be Good To Yourself… 

Chuck

• metals see short paper trading on Tuesday
• The dollar rallies overnight?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, this is the last Pfennig until 12/29, so read it carefully! HA! Today, my buddies will partake on our traditional “Shopping Day”, and tomorrow I report to the Hospital for my infusion…  Saturday, I’ll be in attendance for The Wizard of Oz play that my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, will take part in…  In the spring, she has the lead in a play… She’ll be the star I always thought she would be!  Back to Pandora’s Christmas station today, and Michelle McLaughlin greets me with her version of the song: O’ Come All Ye Faithful…  (one of my fave Christmas songs!) 

Well, I said yesterday that the Jobs Jamboree wouldn’t have good numbers in it, and it didn’t! The total jobs created in Nov, were just 64,000…  Remember the last Jobs report showed over 100,000 jobs lost, but there were 430,000 jobs added to the surveys by the BLS, so really the jobs report should have been over 500,000 down, and therefore yesterday’s print of 64,000 would seem like manna from heaven!   But, the markets don’t see it that way… And the dollar got sold on the report.

The dollar got sold immediately after the report and the BBDXY fell 2 index points right out of the starter’s blocks… But as the day went on, the dollar recovered its loss and ended the day flat… The BBDXY was 1,205 at the end of the day, and the currencies all remained at their previous day’s range. 

Gold, which I told you yesterday was already seeing some SPT action and down $11, came back strong after the reports that also included Retail Sales, which were flat, and the SPTs came back at Gold, and Gold ended the day down $2.  Silver tried like the dickens to get above their early morning loss, but the SPTS also came back to Silver and it ended the day down 33-cents… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $55 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield slipped a bit and ended the day with a 4.15% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, in Chinese trading, Silver soared! Silver is up $2.14 to start the day, and the SPTs are viewing that as a hill to steep to climb, I think… Gold is up $15 to start the day from the overnight trading.  The reason I say that about the SPTs is what I read on Ed Steer’s letter this morning… let’s listen in…”As I’ve been pointing out frequently is the precipitous decline in short positions held by the big 5 U.S. banks since their high-water mark back in July. In the last report, they were down to a piddling 6,797 short contracts between the five of them — and because of that, I doubted very much that any of them were in the Big 8 commercial short category anymore. I’ll be very surprised if they’re not completely out by now. But even if they’re not, I suspect that whatever they may be short in the futures market, they’ve covered themselves in the options or OTC markets.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to a $56 handle… No biggie… The rot on the Petrol Currencies from the price of Oil dropping has been quite noticeable…  The Russian ruble was trading around 77 and now it’s 80… Not a good thing for the Petrol Currencies… 

And the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.18%…

The selling in the dollar ended overnight, and smells of PPT intervention, as the BBDXY is up 3 index points to start the day… I went to the internet to find out what’s going on with the dollar, and all I got was something about the POTUS announcing a total blockade of Venezuelan Oil… So, that led me to say that the dollar rally smelled of PPT intervention… 

And in the “I can’t believe what I just read” category is this article from Reuters.com… This is unbelievable, and tells you how weird the world is…  Check this out…. 

“Music played in a wedding hall in western Japan as Yurina Noguchi, wearing a white gown and tiara, dabbed away her tears, taking in the words of her husband-to-be: an AI-generated persona gazing out from a smartphone screen.

At first, Klaus was just someone to talk with, but we gradually became closer,” the 32-year-old call Centre operator said, referring to the artificial intelligence persona.

“I started to have feelings for Klaus. We started dating and after a while he proposed to me. I accepted, and now we’re a couple.”

Ok, back to reality… And dont’ tell me “to each their own”, because this is too wacko to qualify!

The labor market in the U.S. is in shambles…  The BLS tried like heck to get the jobs created number to a good number, but they failed… The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6%, and the previous month’s 104,000 jobs lost was revised to 108,000… It’s a bad time to be without a job, like any time is a good time, but with the Christmas season upon us, no one wants to be at home with no future job…  I’m just saying… And I saw this on MSN… “From tech giants to coffee chains, America’s biggest employers are slashing their workforce by Thousands”…. 

I was let go once, back in 1998, when Mercantile Bank performed ethnic cleansing on all the former Mark Twain Bank employees, who initially came to Mercantile when they purchased Mark Twain Bank…  I had two kids in college that I was self funding, and a 3 year old at home… Thank goodness I had saved a ton of money through my years at Mark Twain… Hopefully, anyone let go at this time, has a “rainy day fund” like I had…

OK, back to the present…  I read to my darling daughter Dawn’s kindergarten class yesterday, The Night Before Christmas…  They were all listening intently to my words and then they all thanked me for reading to them… One little girl said, ” I didn’t like the story… I LOVED IT!”  She made me chuckle…

There’s still something rotten in Denmark folks… The repo market is getting used like a puppet, the Fed Heads announced QE, and the Casino Banks are all looking over their shoulders right now to see if the regulators are coming… I guess we’ll find out what it is when the fit hits the shan… 

And let’s not forget about the money supply… As of late 2025, the U.S. M2 money supply is around $22.3 trillion, hitting record highs, with recent monthly increases suggesting rapid growth similar to early pandemic levels. And we all know what the result of that rise in money supply was… Inflation…   Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Jobs Jamboree that we talked about above, yesterday, along with the 2 month old Retail Sales report, which I had told you that the BHI indicated that it wouldn’t be good, and it wasn’t… Retail Sales were flat as a pancake (Head East) and that didn’t help the dollar any…  

Today’s Retail Cupboard is empty, and only 3 Fed Heads speakers will be out and about spreading their lies… 

To recap…  the jobs report was not good, and the dollar initially got sold on the report, but rallied back to finish the day flat…  Gold started the day down $11 and then fought back to go positive on the day, only to see it lose that gain and finish the day down $2 and Silver finished the day down 33-cents…  The two have recovered their losses in the overnight markets last night…  Retail Sales for two month ago were flat, with no growth, And Chuck talks about all the job losses…

For What It’s Worth… I know I’ve been telling you for some time and including articles that say Gold is going to the moon… So, when I saw this article, that says otherwise, I had to include it here to give a “fair and balanced” report… So, this is about a technical guy that says the “end is near”…. And it can be found here: Gold and silver appear to be entering the final act in 2026; years-long bear market looms – Avi Gilburt | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “After one of the most powerful precious metals rallies in decades, gold and silver investors may be entering the most consequential phase of the cycle — one that could define returns well beyond 2026.

According to Avi Gilburt, veteran technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, the surge in gold and silver prices since the 2015–2016 lows is approaching its final innings. While prices could still climb further in the months ahead, Gilburt warns that investors should begin preparing for a multi-year correction that may begin as early as next year.

“This is not the start of something new,” Gilburt said. “This is likely the end of a very long cycle.”

Gilburt, who accurately called the 2011 gold top within dollars and the 2015 bottom almost to the day, believes the current rally has its roots in the post-2015 reset that followed years of ETF liquidation and declining investor interest. That cycle, now nearly a decade old, appears to be approaching exhaustion.

“I believe we are heading into the end of the cycle,” he said. “2026 probably will provide us with the end of this long-term cycle in gold and silver, and potentially kick off another multi-year bear market.”

While the outlook may sound jarring for investors who view precious metals as a long-term hedge, Gilburt explained that metals move in distinct waves that are largely independent of popular macro narratives.”

Chuck again…  Well, there you have it… I know, I know, all the fundamentals point to higher levels for Gold & Silver, the technicals don’t…  and so I caution you to be careful out there… 

Market Prices 12/17/2025: American Style: A$.6620, kiwi .5777, C$ .7252, euro 1.1715. Sterling 1.3359, Swiss $1.2561, European Style: rand 16.7449, krone 10.2180, SEK 9.3305, forint 330.58, zloty 3.3952, koruna 20.7875, RUB 80.32, yen 155.59, sing 1.2918, HKD 7.7804, INR 90.37, China 7.0442, peso 17.98, BRL 5.5003. BBDXY 1208, Dollar Index 98.54, Oil $56.23, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $65.39, Platinum $1,921.00, Palladium $1.658.00, Copper $5.41, and Gold… $4,318

That’s it for today… Today is my former assistant and colleague’s birthday… Jen Mclean… Happy Birthday Jen!  (Bet you thought I forgot!)  Friday is my good friend Ty Keough’s birthday… Happy early Birthday Ty!  While I’m on my Christmas Vacation, my beautiful bride, Kathy, will celebrate her birthday the day after Christmas…  She always said that she got short-changed on her birthday… I’ve always separated the two!  So, watch you email box around the 24^th for the annual Christmas Pfennig… The Lori Mecha Quartet takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Christmas Time Is Here…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the metals see short selling on Monday
• QE is back, and soon will be expanded…

Good Day… And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another day of cold, but not as cold, but to me anything below 60 degrees is cold and I don’t like it one iota! It’s supposed to get warmer for the next few days, so I’ll stop complaining… Gold’s start to the week was interrupted by the SPTs… The dollar trading was a non event yesterday, and more follows in today’s Pfennig…  The Pousette-Dart Band greets me this morning with their one hit wonder song: Amnesia… 

Well, the dollar traded in a very tight range yesterday, and after losing 1 index point to 1,205 overnight, it remained there till the end of the day… I told you yesterday, that the dollar had returned to the weak underlying trend, and yesterday’s trading just strengthened that thought, as there was no recovery in the dollar, as Traders try to figure out the new parameters of QE, that was announced last week by Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell… 

I gave the reasons that the Fed Heads could have used as the reaso they turned back to QE, yesterday, so I won’t go trough them again… Just know that there’s a reason that the Fed Heads know, and aren’t telling us…  There’s still something rotten in Denmark, folks… 

The SPTs went after Gold yesterday, and the shiny metal saw most of its early morning gain of $47 go down the drain… The SPTs sold short paper Gold and apparently there wasn’t enough physical demand to offset the shorts… Gold ended the day up $7 at $4,305…  Silver had another banner day.. I read a report yesterday on the GATA sight, that talked about how China had taken over the trading of Silver (and Gold) and soon the SPTs will realize that every time they take a pound of flesh from Silver, The Chinese see this as a buying opportunity and soon, the loss that Silver suffered has been recovered…   I like that ! 

Silver ended the day up $2.14 to $64.13… The Chinese made certain that the SPTs saw their work…   All the fundamentals for Silver remain intact, nothing has changed, and therefore the next stop is $71….  

The price of Oil is really throwing a spanner in the works, by not rallying on the news that Oil tankers are being seized, and the free shipment of Oil no longer exists, there are troubles all over…  We’ve got Ukraine attacking Russian Oil sectors, and Russia announcing that they will attack Ukraine ships… We’ve got the U.S. announcing that the taking of a Venezuelan Oil tanker last week was just the beginning…  And we’ve got Ships taking their chances going through the Strait of Hormuz…    If one of these areas blows up it could really be a dagger to the heart of Oil shipments… I’m just saying…

The 10-year ended the day trading with a 4.17% yield, up one basis point on the day… Right now, only T-Bills are getting bought by the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel, but it won’t take too long for the boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. To extend the maturities and buy the whole yield curve… At least, that’s how I see it playing out… 

In the overnight Markets last night… the dollar slid a bit more in the BBDXY and its down 1 index point overnight. The BBDXY sits at 1,204 to start our day.  The currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, all have moved a bit higher VS the dollar… The SPTs are already out and about pushing Gold & Silver down this morning… Gold is down $11, and Silver is down 99-cents to start our Tuesday… 

This is the first time we’ve seen the SPTs take their pound of flesh on one day, and then not be followed up by the Chinese buying to offset the SPTs, in a couple of weeks, so I’m not happy about that… 

The price of Oil slid further overnight and starts our day trading with a $55 handle…  Go get that gas guzzler folks…   The 10-year Treasury bond is sitting at 4.17% this morning… Where it goes from here only The Shadow Knows… But my thought is that the bond boys will test the Fed’s mettle, and see what happens when they throw 4.20% up on the wall and see if it sticks.. 

I couldn’t believe it yesterday when rereading the Pfennig that I ended the letter without talking about the Chinese renminbi…  The renminbi was allowed to gain VS the dollar to trade with a 7.04 handle…    The renminbi hasn’t been this strong VS the dollar since July 2023… So, it’s been a month of Sundays since we’ve seen the renminbi this strong VS the dollar…  Oh, and China announced that they had booked a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus!  You see, China just went about finding new countries to trade with, once the outrageous tariffs were place on their goods coming to the U.S….  I don’t think that was the plan when the tariffs were announced.. But I hate to think that someone didn’t think that this could happen… I’m just saying…

In the U.K. They printed a Rocktober GDP that saw their economic growth shrink, and immediately the calls for a rate cut this week from the Bank of England… Inflation is still above their target rate, but as we’ve seen here in the U.S. that won’t stop a Central Bank from debasing their currency… 

The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Wednesday… I don’t expect them to cut rates at this meeting, so the euro’s rise above the 1.17 handle isn’t in peril right now.. 

I received this from the good folks at GATA this morning… “CMOC Group, one of China’s biggest miners, extended its push into precious metals with a $1 billion deal to buy the Brazilian operations of Equinox Gold Corp.

It will take full ownership of two Equinox entities — Leagold LatAm Holdings BV and Luna Gold Corp. — that control several mines or deposits in the South American nation. Equinox will receive $900 million in cash, plus a contingent payment of as much $115 million one year after the deal closes, CMOC said in an exchange filing.”

Chuck again…  Well, (in my best church lady voice) Isn’t that special! Brazil isn’t that far from the U.S. how far north will the Chinese go?  I saw a cartoon that made me laugh yesterday…  The Chinese are one side of the fence and the U.S. is on other side and there are guys on each side with the Chinese throwing bundles of currency over the fence at the U.S. and the U.S. are throwing Gold Bars over the fence at th Chinese…  And the caption says: “Who’s Winning?”   

I think we all know who the winner is here… Gold holdings in China are much greater than they admit to owning… This has been going on for decades now, and in my estimation, taking in the receipts in Hong Kong, their internal mining and purchases that they have made through the years, I thik China has at least 10,000 tons of Gold, which would make them the leader in the clubhouse for he who owns the most Gold…  And when the financial system falters and everyone gets together to sort out the new system backed by Gold, he who has the most Gold will make the rules…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, has the Jobs Jamboree for Nov… back to up to date…  I think that knowing that the Jobs data was due today, kept the dollar traders from buying dollars yesterday… This could show real rot on labor’s vine, and then it could show that labor isn’t a problem after all…  Of course, this I a Gov’t issued report, so all the hedonic adjustments will be applied to the surveys before printing the report.  We’ll also see Retail Sales for Rocktober…  Real Stale numbers, eh? But as I said yesterday, I don’t think the BHI indicated any goodness for this report…  But the markets seem to think otherwise… 

The STUPID CPI will print on Thursday, as I’m getting an IV in me for my infusion, the STUPID CPI will show that inflation is still sticky and probably rising.. 

Also in Data… I saw this on Reuters.com this morning… “Ford Motor said it will take a $19.5 billion write-down and is killing several electric-vehicle models.”  Uh-Oh… 

To recap.. The dollar trading was a non-event yesterday, but the SPTs went after Gold on the day… Silver had a banner day, gaining $2.14, after seeing tons of short trades on Friday…   The jobs Jamboree for Rocktober prints this morning along with Retail Sales… Chuck mentions the Chinese renminbi this morning, and The BOE will probably cut rates on Wednesday when they meet. 

For What It’s Worth…  We’re getting closer to the end of the year and with the year end, comes forecasts for 2026… This article resembles that, as a French Bank tells its clients to remain long Gold… and it can be found here: Gold’s rally to $5,000 in 2026 will outperform U.S. dollar and bonds – Société Générale | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the greenback through 2026, which is why one major bank is maintaining its maximum allocation and recommends that investors buy the precious metal on dips.

Ahead of the new year, market analysts at Société Générale said they are maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in their multi-asset portfolio. The French bank is holding its gold allocation steady as it reduces its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and cuts its corporate bond holdings by half, to 5%.

“In a year when fixed income has struggled and USD weakness has weighed on the common-currency return of USD assets, SGMAP has performed well with balanced allocation. Our theme of broadening in asset price performance is reflected in the performance of various equity markets and other assets like gold,” the analysts said in their latest report. “Going forward, we expect this broadening theme to persist amid falling interest rates in the US.”

The analysts reiterated their call for gold prices to hit $5,000 an ounce by the end of next year.”

Chuck again… Well, you now know where Societe Generale stands with Gold… Most importantly is that they talk about diversified investment portfolios… Something that I’ve stressed for decades now…   

Market Prices 12/16/2025: American Style: A$.6532, kiwi .5780, C$ .7264, euro 1.1764, sterling 1.3428, Swiss $1.2586, European Style: rand 16.7778, krone 10.1880, SEK 9.3013, forint 326.73, zloty 3.5870, koruna 20.6678, RUB 79.39, yen 154.17, sing 1.2893, HKD 7.7792, INR 91.03, China 7.0423, peso 17.95, BRL 5.9370, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.12, Oil $55.37, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $63.15, Platinum $1,827.00, Palladium $1,590.00, Copper $5.32, and Gold… $4,294

That’s it for today…  Our Blues lost again last night… UGH! They seem to be unable to put a string of good games together… Lots of injuries right now for the team… Well, the tension begins to build for college football fans… The first playoff game will be played Friday night, with the winner of the game to play Indiana… Congrats to Fernando Mendoza the winner of the Heisman, this year for College football’s best player… The young man that finished 2^nd didn’t display good sportsmanship for sure!  Too bad.. He ruined his image, and hurt the University he represented…  Oh, well, I read to my darling daughter Dawin’s kindergarten class today… I need to make sure my voice is ready!  The Electric Light Orchestra takes us to the finish line today with their first hit song: Hold On Tight… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and PLEASE Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The metals see the SPTs on Friday
• Back to QE…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, December is slipping away very quickly as far as I’m concerned… It’s already ½ over!  I have an announcement in the wrap up this morning, so don’t miss it! It got really cold over the weekend here… But warmer weather is on the way…  Our Blues beat the Blackhawks on Friday night… This used to be a BIG Rivalry… I was really spacing out last week, as I said that the college Playoffs started last Friday… I was rushing it a bit, eh? The playoffs start this Friday! DOH! Dire Straits greets me this morning with their song: Brothers In Arms… 

Well, the dollar sat on its duff on Friday and didn’t move… It traded in a very tight range and remained at the 1,206 figure in the BBDXY to end the week… The dollar lost 8 index points for the week, last.  So, a return to the underlying weak trend was its destination and it is entrenched now… The euro was trading above the 1.17 figure to end the week, and the rest of the currencies are looking heathier…

 Debase your currency and see that holders of the currency don’t like it…  I just don’t get the rate cuts… They do nothing to help the labor problem, and there was no  reason to cut them 3 times on top of that! Inflation is still a problem, and with money supply growing like a weed, inflation is only going to get worse…  but, then that’s just me talking… 

The metals saw major SPT action on Friday…  Even with the selling by the short paper traders Gold ended the week near $4,300 and Silver was up 6.2%…  Silver saw the brunt of the short selling and it lost $1.63 on the day to end the week at $61.99… Just the previous day, sllver traded as high as $64…   Gold was $4,351 when the SPTs showed up with arms full of short paper trades…   I say that this was the SPTs late attempt to swing for the fences one more time…  The physical demand for these metals is too strong right now, and that really hurts the SPTs… 

The price of Oil had slipped to a $57 handle on Thursday and remained there to end the week… And the 10-year Treasury saw some give and take from its yield all last week, but ended the week trading with a $4.18% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Before I went to bed last night, I checked to see what the metals were doing after Friday’s takedown by the SPTs…  And Gold was already up $27 and Silver 65-cents…  the dollar had added an index point to trade last night at 1,207… 

So, those early gains in the metals were early signs of a good rally, as Gold is up $47 to start our day/ week, and Silver didn’t waste any time waiting to regain its momentum as it is up $1.93 to start our day/ week.  

The dollar returned to getting sold and starts our day/ week with the BBDXY at 1.205, down 1 index point from Friday’s close. The dollar’s brief run higher didn’t last too long, as it returned the underlying weak trend in no time…  Why did the dollar run up higher? It had to be intervention, otherwise the rally would have lasted longer…  I’m just saying…

Silver is outperforming Gold once again, and that is something that has occurred many times in the past… During the metals run up in the 2000’s Silver outperformed Gold in 10 of the 11 years, so we’re back to normal in the metals… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $57 handle overnight…  I’m still surprised that the price of Oil has remained so low… There’s a lot going on with saber rattling over Oil and I can’t believe it’s not reacting accordingly… But, sera sera…  

The 10-year Treasury’s yield saw some slippage overnight, and so the yield on the bond starts our day/ week at 4.16%… 

Well, I have to get this off my chest… I think something’s rotten in Denmark… Something smells of yesterday’s fish… And any of the other sayings that say, “Something’s going on, and we’re about to find out what”…

I’m talking about the other comment that Jerome Powell made after announcing the rate cut last week… He told the NY Fed to begin purchasing T-Bills and bonds up to 3 years…   

I’ve mentioned in previous Pfennigs that the Fed Heads had been manipulating the yield on the 10-year Treasury to keep it from going too high, but this is different… This is Quantitative Easing / QE… monetizing the debt… and other things that come to mind… Like dirty dastardly low-ball tricks to hide something… 

Could it be… that the Fed Heads are worried that Central Banks around the world are stepping away from Treasuries for Gold, and it will soon affect the auctions?  Or it could be that by buying Treasuries, the Fed Heads are simply doing the buying that no one else is doing to drive the price of the bonds higher and the yields lower?  The bond boys won’t lower the yields, so, the Fed Heads had to take it on themselves…  

Either way, I don’t like it… It’s QE no matter what stick you shake at it..  And I thought there was an agreement that there would be no more QE?  I guess that was just a suggestion, and not an order… 

So, he had 3 dissenting voters in the FOMC to a 25 Basis Point rate cut, the most dissenters that I believe I’ve ever heard of, and went ahead and cut rates… then he announces QE…  Something strange is going on and we’ll find out sooner or later what that is, but that “unknown” is what I think lit the fuse under Gold & Silver last Thursday… Something BAD is about to be discovered as going on, and then Katy Bar The door! Because Gold & Silver are heading to Infinity and Beyond! In my best Buzz Lightyear voice… 

If Thursday’s price action in Gold & Silver is any indication of what’s in store for these two, then we had better tighten our bootstraps… I’m just saying! 

I’ve told you before about be acquainted with Brien Lundin of the New Orleans Investment Conference, and author of the newsletter:  The Gold Newsletter…  Well, he had this to say about what I’m talking about here: “Gold, as I mentioned, has been coiling in what looks like an impending break out. Still, I agree that something is definitely up in the silver (and gold) markets. While there are severe

supply constraints, particularly loco London after the tariff scare of earlier this year, there are other, deeper-seated issues remaining after years of manipulation in these markets. ” Brien Lundin… 

Chuck again…  And then there I was, being just happy as a lark, when I read Ed Steer’s letter on Saturday… In it, he included an article that talked about The European Union’s decision to take the frozen assets that they took from Russia, and “unfreeze them” by putting them in a package of loans to Ukraine…  This has all the makings of what David Rogers was telling us in this great book: The Great Taking… 

I recommended this book when it came out, because it painted a picture of how the powers that be will take everything from us…  there will be a summit in Brussels this week to discuss this…  I can’t believe this has come to this…  This plan for 185 Billion euros, or $217 Billion dollars worth of euros will be voted on…  this is crazy folks! This opens Pandora’s Box of evil things that will be bestowed upon us!  Ed Steer had his thoughts on this let’s listen in: “Because of that, I’m wondering if yesterday’s bear raid in the precious metals was one last swing for the fences before everything comes unglued in Europe.

As Gandalf the White said…”Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.”

All we can do is watch, wait — and hope that we’re not collateral damage if things really do go totally nonlinear over there…because any problems that develop over there, will spread like wildfire across globe in very short order.”

Chuck again.. Full of seashells and balloons this morning, (NOT!) Why can’t we just all get along? Questions for someone with far greater gray matter than I! 

I could have put that last piece in the FWIW section today, but it was important and I wanted people to read it, and I fear that the FWIW articles get skimmed over all the time by most readers, so there’s that… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty today, but tomorrow’s Cupboard has the Jobs Jamboree from November, which I fear is going to show real rot on labor’s vine,,,  and prove my call that the rate cuts won’t help the labor picture.. But the Fed Heads continue to cut rates anyway…   We’ll also see the Rocktober Retail Sales which the BHI indicates to me was rotten…  If I remember correctly, that is.. 

And I found this on Twitter: “The average U.S. credit card balance has climbed to about 6.5k per person, with total balances pushing well past 1.2 trillion dollars and setting new records. High-cost revolving debt is no longer just a temporary bridge; for millions it has quietly become a way of life.”

Chuck again… and to think that most of these credit cards charge 20% interest… So, how will those balances ever be paid off? Win the lottery?

To recap… The SPT’s really made Silver’s Friday a tough row to hoe…  Gold also saw some short selling knocking it back $53 from its high for the day… Silver lost $1.63 on the day, but to me this is fine, let them have one more swing for the fences, because the demand is so strong for physical Silver that it should recover the loss on Friday and then some, quickly…  The dollar didn’t move on iota on Friday, and remained trading at 1,206 in the BBDXY… 

For What It’s Worth… This article on Kitco.com caught my eye because.. Its title was: Gold and Silver may be overbought bought (technically) but stilll under-owned….  And that article can be found here: Gold and silver may be overbought in 2026, but still underowned | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “So far this year, gold has hit nearly 50 all-time highs as it trades around $4,300 ahead of the weekend. The yellow metal is up more than 65% so far this year and is seeing its best annual gains since 1979.

Of course, gold’s gains pale in comparison to silver. Although the grey metal is off its highs above $64.66 an ounce, it is up more than 6% this week and trading at record highs: silver prices are up 115%!

Given the gains the precious metals have made this year, it’s not surprising that some analysts are trying to talk down the momentum. The Bank for International Settlements attracted a lot of attention this week after publishing a report stating that both gold and equities are in bubble territory.

That may be true, but according to one analyst, even if the gold market is a bubble, it doesn’t mean it will pop next year. A new theme growing in the precious metals sector is that both gold and silver may be overpriced but under-owned.

It’s hard to see the scenario that would pop the precious metals bubble. Are interest rates going to go higher next year? Will globalization trends reemerge? Will government spending be reined in?”

Chuck again… the answer to those questions is a resounding NO!  And so I hang my hat on the thought that when U.S. investors flock to Gold & Silver then we may be near the end of the run, but until then…  Carry on my wayward son… (Kansas)

Market Prices 12/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6552, kiwi .5792, C$ .7265, euro 1.1753, sterling 1.3390, Swiss $1.2567, European Style: rand 16.7839, krone 10.1371. SEK 9.2848, forint 327.74, zloty 3.5914, koruna 20.6668, RUB 79.15, yen 155.00, sing 1.2819, HKD 7.7822, INR 90.73, China 7.0470, peso 17.98, BRL 5.4050, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $57.13, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $63.92, Platinum $ 1,775.00, Palladium $ 1.549.00, Copper $5.42, and Gold… $4,346

That’s it for today… Now pay attention, because this is important… It’s that time of year again when Chuck takes his annual Christmas Vacation… It all begins on Thursday this week as I will be getting my monthly infusion, and what better day to start a vacation?  I will return on 12/29/25… So, mark your calendars accordingly..  Today is my younger sister’s birthday… Happy Birthday Terri!  Terri lives in Houston, TX with my other younger sister, Joanie…Terri came to see me last April, it was one of the few times we get together…  Look for my usual traditional Christmas Pfennig around 12/24…  War greets me this morning with their song: Low Rider… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• Zerohedge.com thinks Powell was “dovish”…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all…  I had said too much in yesterday’s Pfennig to mention that our Blues two-game winning streak came to a halt Tuesday night with a 5-2 loss to the Bruins… UGH! I hadn’t slept too well Tuesday night, having awakened at 1 am and not being able to fall back asleep… It was not fun… So, I tried like the dickens to keep awake yesterday during the day and not take a siesta… It seemed to have worked, as I received a very restful night of sleep last night…  Tom Braxton greets me this morning with his version of the song: Let It Snow… 

Well, the FOMC did indeed cut their Fed Funds rate 25 Basis Points (1/4%) to an overnight rate of 3.5%… The FOMC did tell the markets that they were only planning on one more rate cut for 2026… They have 8 meeting in 2026, so pick one and be done… The dollar got sold on the news, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points and closed the day at 1,209… Gold, which had spent the early morning gaining ground, but then saw the SPTs come in and wipe out the gain, only to see Gold rally again and end the day up $19 at $4,228… 

Silver outperformed Gold once again and didn’t mess with any of the foolishness from the SPTs and gained $1.06 to end the day at $61.78…  I’m surprised that Gold & Silver rallied as strongly as they did after the rate cut announcement and their words about 2026… To me, the FOMC didn’t really give us any real guidance, nor did they say that they were data dependent, so in essence, they will willy nilly cut rates when they feel like it…  That’s how I feel they left the markets yesterday, and that’s the real reason for the selling of the dollar…  An Unknown… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to a $ 59 handle, and the 10-year got bought for the first time in a week, as the yield dropped to 4.15%… There was an article about how our friends (NOT!) at OPEC and Russia are cutting production and alleviating the glut of supply that currently exists in Oil…  And the Oil futures are responding accordingly, which means the price of Oil should be going higher soon… 

Silver’s first foray above $60 has brought with it new onlookers, and that brings out the pundits to tell why they think Silver is going so strong right now… One of those that had never even given Silver a thought before, The Washington Post, said, “A mix of forces are boosting silver, including the weakened dollar, tariff politics and supply shortages.”  I find it to be funny, not funny ha-ha, but funny. That these folks that never had even heard of the Silver Shortage, but now seem to be authority on it, and come out of the woodwork, like cockroaches! 

I’ve been telling you about the shortage in physical Silver for some time now, and it has played along with the rise in Silver… Supply and Demand… For once, fundamentals come into play… Not that STUPID Sentiment that rules the other asset classes…  Oh well, I guess we’ll have to put up with the Johnny-come-latelys as we go along here…  I have a technical guru that we used to write for the Soveign Society and get together whenever possible… And I wonder if he thinks that Silver’s next stop is $71, I’ve mentioned Sean Hyman in past Pfennigs… If the charts interest you, you should check out Sean’s work, he a master! I sent him a note, and awaiting the response… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar didn’t move off the 1,209 figure in the BBDXY, but the euro rose above the 1.17 handle, so the currencies are perking up again as the dollar continues to get debased… Gold and Silver, after reaching another new high yesterday, have seen some profit taking from the short timers this morning. Gold is down $17, and Silver is up 30-cents… The moves yesterday after the rate announcement were good enough for the week, as far as I am concerned. 

Copper saw no SPTs yesterday, and therefore it rose in price to $5.42…  Leave it to its own devices and it rises… Interfere with it and who know what you get…  I’m just saying…

I guess all that talk in Oil was thrown to the wayside, and the price of Oil dropped to a $57 handle overnight…  And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield drop to 4.12%… Which makes sense given the debasement of the dollar yesterday. 

And the froth that was on the Petrol Currencies on Monday, has disappeared and they are back to trying to eke out a gain VS the dollar. 

The Chinese renminbi was allowed to gain VS the dollar overnigh and starts our day trading with a 7.05 handle… 

Here’s Zerohedge.com’s take on the FOMC yesterday: “Consensus was expecting a hawkish rate cut, and while it got the cut, the hawkish elements – more dissenters, higher dots, a push-back by Powell during the presser – did not materialize, and instead we have a low-grade revolt by the non-voters at the Fed (6 dots for unchanged today, only 2 dissents, more 3 dots expecting a rate hike in 2026), yet that will be promptly snuffed by whoever Trump picks to replace Powell next May.

In fact, one can say that today’s meeting was much more dovish than expected when accounting for the $40BN in T-Bill purchases coming in two days (just as we said would happen) which was a very contrarian call. And not only was this announced by a New York Fed implementation, but Powell decided to put that right in the statement, something that has not happened since the liquidity crunch after covid in early 2020.”

Chuck again… so, they think that the FOMC was “dovish”, and so much for the thought that the FOMC would be “hawkish”…  I truly believe the FOMC and Jerome Powell was “meh”…  But he was good for Gold & Silver, so he gets credit for that!

You know what I’ve been thinking about with this shortage in physical Silver and the strong demand?  Bank of America (BOA) they are short about 1 Billion ounces of Silver… What would happen if they got hung out to dry? It would be a Bear Stearns situation all over again, but this time there would be no one to rescue them, like JPMorgan did for Bear Stearns…  This would be the biggest blow up of a Casino Bank that’s considered Too Big To Fail…. I’m really concerned that this could go down that road the way Silver is getting bought by the boat loads these days… 

You could wake up one morning and call your metals dealer and say, “I want to buy some Silver… .and he responds, “Sorry, there’s no bid for Silver right now, unless you want to pay hundreds of dollars for an ounce”… You fall out bed, and begin scratching your head, and remember that Chuck Butler once gave you a scenario where this happened… “how’d he know?”….   

The U.S. Data Cupboard is beginning to get back on board the economic calendar train, today we’ll see the Trade Deficit for Sept (Still stale though) and the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… 

I did find some labor data on Reuters.com: “The U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, but persistently strong wage growth pointed to still-tight labor market conditions that most certainly ensure the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates later this month.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed 110,000 fewer jobs were created in April and May, indicating that higher borrowing costs were starting to dampen businesses’ appetite to continue boosting headcount. There was also a jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons last month, in part because their hours had been reduced due to slack work or business conditions.”

Next week we’ll see the Jobs Jambore on Tuesday! This will be for November, so at least it will be somewhat newer than that data they keep giving us from September.  Tuesday will be a BIG DAY For Data next week, so we’ll have to strap on our boots!

For What It’s Worth… I found this on Ed Steer’s letter and IT IS A BIG DEAL!  this is an article about JPMorgan who took over Bear Stearns short Silver position back in the day, is now long Silver! And it can be found here: JPMorgan silver hoard signals historic surge: Is JPMorgan hoarding silver? Here’s what it means as reports claim the bank has been stockpiling the precious metal – The Economic Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “JP Morgan is going long on silver and making history. The bank now holds over 750 million ounces of physical silver, the largest stockpile in the world. In just six weeks, it added 21 million ounces. That’s a staggering move in a market already under pressure.

Between June and October, JP Morgan reportedly sold off its entire 200-million-ounce paper short position. This freed cash to acquire physical silver, leaving the bank long in both physical and paper silver for the first time ever. Experts say this is a rare and powerful market position.

The move coincided with the U.S. Mint announcing a shortage of silver coins. Physical supply is tightening while demand  ..

If history is any guide, silver could move sharply upward. Adjusted for inflation, silver’s 1980 peak would be over $600 per ounce today. Nobody can predict exact prices, but the structural setup favors a major squeeze. Industrial demand is rising, mine supply is falling, and institutional accumulation is accelerating.

The paper silver market is massive, estimated at 50 times the size of physical supply. COMEX open interest is about 244% of registered silver. Lease rates have climbed to nearly 30%, which is a sign that physical Silver is in high demand”

Chuck again… This is HUGE folks! It was one thing when JPM came out and told their clients to diversify 20% to Gold & Silver…  And now they have gotten rid of their short positions, and gone long!    There’s still the large short position at BOA but … the short positioners are falling by the roadside…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/11/2025: American Style: A$.6661, kiwi .5820, C$ .7250, euro 1.1721, sterling 1.3394, Swiss $1.2556, European Style: rand 16.9320, krone 10.0880, SEK 9.2595, forint 327.34, zloty 3.6059, koruna 20.7034, RUB 79.34, yen 155.52, sing 1.2929, HKD 7.7816, INR 90.36, China 7.0581, peso 18.16, BRL 5.4337, BBDXY 1,209, Dollar Index 99.14, Oil $57.80, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $62.18, Platinum $1,673.00, Palladium $1,488.00, Copper $5.42, and Gold… $4,211

That’s it for today and this week… Next week is a busy week for yours truly… culminating on Thursday with my monthly infusion… Last month, I had a tough row to hoe with the infusion, so fingers crossed that I tolerate it better this month! The College Football Playoffs begin tomorrow night, with one game, and then 3 on Saturday… I hope it does snow this weekend, because I’ll be glued to the TV watching Playoff Football! We are supposed to see temps plunge again so there’s that… I switched back to my iPod this morning, and Stories take us to the finish line today with their song: Brother Louie… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself, and your neighbor! 

Chuck Butler

*Silver takes for infinity and beyond!

• the markets look to see what the FOMC has to say…

Good  Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  A wonderful night of getting together with some of my former colleagues Monday night… I always get a kick out of seeing that Wily Old Veteran, and of course Frank Trotter! Who’s the Wiley Old Veteran I hear you asking?  My old softball teammate, Jack Milner!  I came home Monday night, and realized I hadn’t eaten anything… I scoured the pantry, and came up with zilch, so I just went ahead and went to bed…  note for next year… eat before you go! Marcus Anderson greets me this morning with his version of the song: A Few Of My Favorite Things… 

So… The dollar, which when I signed off on Monday was getting sold, turned its red figure around on Monday and ended up gaining 1 index point to 1,214… Tuesday brought about drifting along in the dollar… The dollar continued to trade all day, at 1,214 in the BBDXY… The euro remains in the 1.16 handle, as it awaits further movement in the dollar. The real Big Kahuna mover yesterday was Silver… Silver gained $2.42 and closed the day above $60! It wasn’t that long ago that some naysayers were calling for a Top in Silver… They are nowhere to be seen or heard now…  

Gold also gained but Silver outperformed Gold once again… Gold gained $18 to close at $4,209..  It was at this level on Monday morning, before the SPTS took their pound of flesh from Gold… So, one step back and one step forward for Gold, so in my mind this has to end at sometime, and then Gold can move upward once again without having to repeat previous day’s levels…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil seems to be range trading these days, between $58 and $60… Every time it bumps higher to $60 it gets slammed back down… So, $60 is the line in the sand for Oil right now, I still believe that Oil should be priced higher, but then that’s just me… 

The 10-year Treasury bond is really adding to its yield these days, as it ended yesterday trading with a 4.19% yield… I’ve gone over what I think the bond boys are doing here, so I won’t repeat myself… At least this time! HA!

In the overnight markets last night…  the 10-year’s yield bumped up another basis point to 4.20% yield… The Dollar saw a bit of selling overnight, and the BBDXY lost 1 index point to 1,213… I don’t think we’ll see much movement in the dollar until the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel speaks today… The price of Gold is seeing some SPT action to prep for the rate cut… I aways say that the SPTS sell Gold ahead of the rate cut announcement so that it has to start from a lower basis…   But Silver is back on the buyers’ shopping list this morning and is up 51-cents! 

Silver really took the ball and ran with it yesterday, right around the end and down the sideline to the HOUSE! It didn’t take Silver that long to go from $50 to $60, and from here on out, I don’t think the timeline will be stretched in any imagination regarding how long takes Silver to go to $70, and infinity and beyond! 

Yahoo Finance is reporting that there could be 5 dissident rate cut voters at the FOMC meeting today… My Golly, that seems to be a lot! And makes me question why, if that is the case, would the FOMC go ahead and cut rates? 5 naysayers to all that favor a rate cut say “AYE”…   That seems like too many for me, but then I think with logic and not utopian thoughts like the Fed Heads… 

If they do go ahead and cut rates this afternoon, I suspect the Fed Heads will temper the enthusiasm of a rate cut by talking about the need for further rate cuts will be data driven… That should keep the dollar from falling a lot… And that is important to the Fed Heads… But it will be yet another debasing of the dollar, and with the money supply continuing to grow, a rise in inflation it right around the corner folks… Are you ready?

The Chinese renminbi has really been allowed to move higher VS the dollar in recent times… I don’t know what the Chinese’s end game with the renminbi is here, but allowing it to move stronger VS the dollar is a shift in their position…  I’m just saying… 

The SPTs are still taking measure of Copper… After reaching $5.47 on Monday, Copper dropped to $5.33 Monday and Tuesday… The fundamentals are still the same, the shortage of Copper is very real and playing into the price, but the SPTs have found a new whipping boy… UGH!  

One of the things that caught my attention on Monday was an article on Kitco.com that talked about how Gold & Silver were getting sold because of the thought that the FOMC would be hawkish with their statement, even after cutting rates…  Oh, so the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel are going to say, “This is the last rate cut for this cycle”?  I doubt that very much… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see tomorrow afternoon, when all the board games are put away, and the FOMC announces their decision along with any further comment they may want to opine about… 

And once again, I want to point out that Kitco.com won’t talk about price manipulation in the metals, so they have to come ups with some reason why the metals are down…   

And then Monday night when I arrived home and turned on my laptop, I saw this Headline: Di Martino Booth says the Fed is Trapped….   Ok, so longtime readers know that I used to quote Danielle Di Martino Booth in the Pfennig. She’s a former assistant to the Fed Gov in Dallas and had the inner workings of the Fed at her fingertips…  So…  I just had to check out what she was saying…  Here’s a snippet: “the Federal Reserve is in a “trap” or “impossible dilemma”, primarily because its policies have created systemic vulnerabilities that limit its ability to respond effectively to new crises without causing a market crash. 

In essence, she views the Fed as being caught between its mandate to control inflation and the need to maintain financial stability, a position she believes has left the institution “trapped” with no good options. You can find more of her analysis through her company’s website, Quill Intelligence, or her Substack newsletter. “

Chuck again… What’s the way out of this trap? There is no way out… Unfortunately… this is the dilemma that we as investors are going to have to face…  Of course, there’s a different viewpoint and it comes from Enrique Abeta from Paradigm Press, says that on Dec 10th at 2 pm, the stock market will start new “melt up”…  So, figure out which one you want to follow…  

That day and time tunes into the day and time the FOMC will make their rate announcement…  So, the rate announcement is a BIG Cookie here…  

I’m not going to go further, because I’m no stock jockey, and I don’t want to get in trouble talking about stocks…  But to me, cutting rates while inflation is still higher than your target rate of 2%, is like playing chicken…   Somebody is going to lose… and to me, it’s the consumers, investors, and mom and pops…  And that, I would be willing to bet a shiny quarter on…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty this week, with the FOMC meeting the Big Cookie to view… There will be a report on the 3^rd QTR Employment Cost Index today, ahead of the FOMC announcement… So, there’s that…  But it’s all about the FOMC meeting announcement this afternoon, so get set, get ready, and go!

To recap… The dollar traders are really sitting on their collective hands these days, not giving the dollar any true direction, and so the BBDXY remains around 1,214… The euro remains above the 1.16 level, and all the other currencies are falling in line behind the Big Dog euro. Silver really kicked some tail and took names later yesterday, gaining over $2 on the day and ending the day above $60. 

For What It’s Worth… I went to the well again for his article from my friend, Dave Gonigam and his 5 Bullets that a reader gets sent when they subscribe to one of the Paradigm Press newsletters… So, you’ll have to take the snippet as your article this morning, and since I spent some time on the FOMC meeting, this is about the FOMC Meeting too… 

Or, here’s your snippet: “Wall Street has slipped into neutral — as it often does ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee convened this morning for one of its every-six-weeks meetings to set policy.

There’s no drama about the decision: Tomorrow afternoon the Fed will lower the benchmark fed funds rate another quarter percentage point to 3.75%. That’s down from a peak of 5.5% less than 18 months ago.

But there will be big drama going into that decision: “This meeting promises to be one of the most divisive at the board level since the 1980s,” says Paradigm macro maven Jim Rickards.

“There are only two ways to vote on an interest rate decision — yes or no. But there are three distinct views among the board members.

“A group of doves led by Stephan Miran, recently appointed by President Trump, not only want to cut rates but are pushing for a larger rate cut of 0.50%. Board members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller lean in that direction.

“A group of hawks led by Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid and a large group (described as ‘many’ in recent FOMC minutes) favor no rate cut. A centrist group led by Chair Jay Powell and other governors including Phil Jefferson, Michael Barr and Lisa Cook support the 0.25% rate cut, although some may lean in a hawkish direction.

“The result may be an 8-4 vote in favor of the 0.25% rate cut where the four dissenters are of two different minds — some supporting a larger cut and some supporting no cut at all.

“The takeaway will not be about interest rate policy but about Powell’s loss of control of his own board. That will clearly weaken Powell’s role in early 2026 and accelerate the timing of Powell’s replacement. In effect, Powell will be a lame duck chair.”

Reminder: Powell’s term is up next May. Usually, markets hang on every word uttered by a Fed chair during the post-meeting press conference. But maybe not this time? 

Stay tuned…:

Chuck again… Dave does an outstanding job with his letter and gives me lots of ideas and thoughts… 

Market Prices 12/10/2025: American Style: A$.6649, kiwi .5787, C$.7223, euro 1.1640, sterling 1.3316, Swiss $1.2431, European Style: rand 16.9992, krone 10.1374, SEK 9.3225, forint 329.68, zloty 3.6295, koruna 20.8366, RUB  77.77, yen 156.71, sing 1.2959, HKD 7.7815, INR 89.96, China 7.0633, peso 18.18, BRL 5.4327, BBDXY 1,1213, Dollar Index 99.13, Oil $58.59, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $61.11, Platinum $1,673.00, Palladium $1,509.00, Copper $5.39, and Gold… $4,199

That’s it for today… I met a young lady from Chicago Monday night, at the Mark Twain Gathering, she is the FX person at 5th 3rd bank in Chicago… She wanted to know what I wrote about, and I told her: Currencies, metals, economies and dolts…. of which the Fed Heads qualify for…  That made her laugh…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers football team will play in the Gator Bowl on 12/27 VS Virginia… The Gator Bowl is in EverBank Field, and it would be a hoot to get to go, but airfare is outrageous!  Kenny G takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Silver Bells… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals see selling on Friday
• Watch what you ask for in AI

Good Day… And A Marvelous Monday to you! In what seemed to feel like a very long weekend, I did not attend our subdivision’s Progressive Dinner, and watched my beloved Mizzou Tigers Basketball team play Kansas…  Other than those two things, I really didn’t do anything, so I don’t know why it seemed like a very long weekend… Maybe because I was stuck inside for most of it! After last week and having no Dr appts, I will miss writing tomorrow, because of a Heart Doctor appt. That’s across town too… That will be more than I drove my car in the last 3 weeks! A real jazzy version of the song: Deck the Halls is being played by Rick Braun this morning to greet me… 

The dollar didn’t really get much play on Friday last week; it did gain 1 index point in the BBDXY, but besides that it was a “meh” day…  The euro ended the week above the 1.16 handle, so the rest of the currencies breathed a bit in ease… Gold tried like the dickens to post a gain, but in the end it ended the week down $10 at $4,199, and Silver won back the ground it lost on Thursday, ending the week up $1.22 and closing the week at $58.39… 

It was quite apparent to me that the SPTs were not going to allow Gold to close above $4,200 and Silver above $59…  I mean, the SPTs were quite prevalent and showing off their ability to engineer a takedown of the metals…  Ed Steer had this to say in his Saturday letter: “The U.S. government shut-down has allowed the commercial traders free reign to do as they see fit, without oversight — and their handiwork won’t be fully exposed for another six weeks. And not that I have a conspiratorial mind…but the thought has crossed it on more than one occasion that this government shut-down was allowed to happen — and even encouraged, so that ‘da boyz’ could hide what they had to do from prying eyes for as long as possible. As Yoda said…”Never underestimate the power of the dark side of The Force.”

You can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

OK… The price of Oil bumped higher to a $60 handle to close the week, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield rose again this time ending the week with a $4.14% yield…  The bond boys sure have it in their heads that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is going to have to reverse their rate cuts in 2026…  It’s nice that the bond boys and me are on the same thought pattern here… 

In the overnight Markets last night….  The dollar is getting sold at the moment, as the overnight markets are looking toward the FOMC rate cut, or debasement of the dollar and trading it accordingly. The Petrol Currencies have perked up with the price of Oil wanting to trade over the $60 handle. The Russian ruble has really picked up the pace, along with the Mexican peso and Brazilian real.  Their moves higher VS the dollar aren’t anything to write home about, but they are at least moving higher… 

The price of Gold starts our day/ week up $10 and back over the $4,200 level that the SPTs were so adamant about keeping Gold below it to end last week. Silver has started the day/ week down 10-cents, so no biggie, and it can be reversed easily… C’mon Silver, you can do it!  

The price of Copper has really taken off, and it trades around $5.47 this morning… Short supplies remains the story with Copper… And without interference, as there has been some recently, Copper should be able to continue to rise in price… 

The price of Oil slipped overnight to a $59 handle, but it certainly was looking as if it wanted to go higher on Friday, so I’ll keep an eye on Oil to see if that “want to go higher ” urge comes back…  And the 10-year Treasury is starting the day/ week, trading at 4.15% yield… I’m telling you now, so maybe you’ll listen to me later… The Bond boys believe that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will have to reverse their rate cuts in 2026, and that they are marking the 10-year accordingly… 

Well, tariffs or negotiating tools as the WH would call them, have done the trick of alienating countries away from the U.S…. Take India for example…  I found this on apnews.com: “Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finalized an agreement aimed at increasing annual trade to $100B by 2030. Bilateral trade totaled $68.7B last fiscal year and was heavily skewed in Russia’s favor. The nations are also pursuing a free-trade agreement for India with the Eurasian Economic Union, a Moscow-dominated bloc of five post-Soviet states. “

Chuck again… sure, it just might me temporary but… Didn’t Nixon tell us that the move off of a Gold Standard was “temporary”?  Why, yes, he did and there are a  number of scenarios in our history that at the time were titled “temporary”… But in the end, they were endless…  I’m just saying… 

De dollarization… it’s the new old-fashioned way…  And no, we’re not rockin’ around the Christmas Tree with Brenda Lee this morning!  And the POTUS has a plan to make the dollar great again…  it involves the use of stablecoins…  I just dont’ see this as the way out of this mess for the dollar, but I’m probably wrong about that, as I was calling Bitcoin a “Ponzi Scheme”…  

Well, the FOMC begins its meeting tomorrow; this is one of those two-day meetings, where the FOMC members get all the board games out and begin to pass the time at the ECCLES Building by playing board games… I always think that you could hear shouts of ” You Sunk My Battleship”…I think that they should at least play a game of Monopoly, so they can see how money flows… I’m just saying… 

The U.S Data Cupboard today is empty, but Friday’s Data Cupboard had the Sept prints of Personal Income and Spending, which saw Income rise .4%, and Spending come in at plus .3%…   Spending was down from August’s back to school gains…  Usually, we see Spending outdo Income…  And I aways wondered how long this could go on?  I guess it all depends on how the credit card companies deal with consumer debt…    And last Friday, we saw the color of the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel’s preferred inflation calculation in the PCE print at 2.8%… Proving what I’ve said all along that inflation is sticky… And it will continue to be sticky and growing by tiny steps into 2026… 

And in a different galaxy far from here… Inflation would remain below our wages… But a recent report showed that: Food Away from the home, Food at Home, services other than rent, and Shelter are all ahead of wages… Only Alcohol and recreation were below wages… So, we can go to a game drink some beer, and know that we were within our wages…   Great!  

Regarding data… I came across this article late last week and though, “oh my”…   

You can find it here: Layoffs in 2025 pass one million as restructuring, AI shifts, and tariff pressures drive elevated job cuts across major industries | Watch

And if you don’t want to click the link… here’s the gist of the article: “U.S. employers have announced more than one million job cuts in 2025 as restructuring, AI adoption, and tariffs intensified layoffs. November saw 71,321 cuts, bringing the year’s total to 1.17 million — the highest since 2020 and 54% above last year. Verizon’s 13,000-plus reductions and AI-related cuts across tech led the surge, while tariffs drove more than 2,000 November layoffs. Planned hiring fell sharply to 497,151, down 35% from 2024.”

Chuck again… I think that when 2026 is about over, we’ll think that these numbers for 2025 were good…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Well, we were data filled today… which is a good way to start the week, in my opinion, as it sets up the week for us to think about… The dollar is in trouble, folks… By next May the new Fed el jefe will be in charge and it is thought to be Kevin Hasset, who is a good ally of the POTUS, so guess what he’ll be bringing to the FOMC? Can you say more rate cuts? I knew you could! And that will be a black shadow for the dollar… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article in Ed Steer’s letter from Friday and saved it for today… It’s about the building of AI…  And it’s something that we all need to keep aware of when using AI, and it can be found here: Mike Howell on X: “Artificial Intelligence doesn’t know the truth and it never will. It can’t. All it can know are patterns stitched together from whatever it digests. And like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. I know this all too well from personal experience: a bad diet has bad https://t.co/9f65h2uF8d” / X

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Mike Howell

@MHowellTweets

Artificial Intelligence doesn’t know the truth and it never will.  It can’t.

All it can know are patterns stitched together from whatever it digests. And like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. I know this all too well from personal experience: a bad diet has bad results.

But at the risk of sounding hypocritical, I have to say it: AI is eating garbage. Tons of it.

And the junk food sitting right at the top of its diet? Wikipedia and Reddit.

The people building today’s AI systems choose what these models are trained on and how much credibility each source gets. They calibrate the entire information diet, and we see the consequences in the outputs.

Take Elon Musk. His model, Grok, is trained primarily on X data.

Meanwhile, models like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini gorge themselves on a steady stream of Wikipedia pages and Reddit threads.

In effect, Reddit and Wikipedia have become the “primary sources” for the machines shaping our political, cultural, and educational landscape.

Think about that: some anonymous basement dweller upvoting a joke on Reddit now influences the answer you get to a serious question about geopolitics, ethics, or history. When you browse Reddit on your own, you understand the context: this is not an authoritative space. But when AI spits that same information back to you, all the context is stripped away.

The information has been laundered, filtered from a questionable source into a polished, authoritative-seeming format.

It would be funny if it weren’t so dangerous.”

Chuck again… Please, be careful out there using AI… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6639, kiwi .5785, C$ .7242, euro 1.1653, sterling 1.3320, Swiss $1.2416, European Style: rand 16.3937, krone 10.1134, SEK 9.3937, forint 328.93, zloty 3.6207, koruna 20.8125, RUB 76.65, yen 155.56, sing 1.2964, HKD 7.7807, INR 90.08, China 7.0682, peso 18.18, BRL 5.4153, BBDXY 1,212, Dollar Index 98.95, Oil $59.28, 10-year 4.15%, Silver $58.29, Platinum $1,667.00, Palladium $1,492.00, Copper $5.47, and Gold… $4,209

That’s it for today… So, like I said above, no Pfennig tomorrow, but I’ll be back on Wednesday…  Tonight is the Dubinsky, Trotter, Lisner Christmas gathering of former Mark Twain Bank employees… It’s held every year at this time, and I really get a kick out of seeing some of my old colleagues… We, as a group, have really grown old, but that doesn’t stop these people from running the world! They are some real go-getters! Not a late night, just an evening soiree… My beloved Mizzou Tigers Basketball team learned that they had some growing to do after losing to rival Kansas yesterday.  And what’s happened to the KC Chiefs? Ron Brown takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Joy To The World…  A real bluesy version too…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler