Category: Uncategorized

• currencies and metals rise on Wednesday
• So, I’m a gloom and doom guy? Hardly!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, it was back to my old habit of eating lunch and then going out to the deck to read for a couple of hours in the sun… It was a beautiful day… I missed doing that routine the last couple of weeks I was here last, because I had come home from the Hospital with oxygen and my stamina had to be rebuilt… which consisted of short walks down the hallway and back… UGH! I felt like such a wimp! Sugarloaf greet me this morning with their great 70’s song: Green Eyed Lady… 

Well, was it another false dawn or was it the beginning of the next phase up for Gold & Silver yesterday?  Gold gained $50 on the day, and closed at $3,983… Silver gained 91-cents to close at $48.12…  The dollar was stuck in the mud yesterday, beginning the day down 1 index point in the BBDXY, and ending the day, down 1 index point… The 1,225 level is where the dollar held out on Wednesday…  

Man, there are a ton of article out there right now telling us that “this consolidation in Gold is good” and that all the fundamental reasons for buying Gold still exist, so they weeded out the short-time buyers, and now Gold is ready to take off again… I’ve even given you a couple of these in the FWIW section in the last week. So, I won’t bore you with more talk about how these cheaper levels of Gold & Silver are buying opportunities that should be taken advantage of… NOW!  

Sooner than later, these levels will be looked at in our rear-view mirrors, and we’ll think… “Boy, that was some opportunity we missed”… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil finally slipped from the $60 handle to the $59 handle yesterday… No Biggie, just some slippage… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield shot higher to 4.17% yesterday, and the bond traders had the thought that whenever the ADP Employment Report does print, it’s going to show that there was some recovery of jobs in Rocktober…  and that could mean that the Fed Heads will pass on another rate cut in December… 

These bond boys are usually bang on in their thoughts on the economy… Which is why I always contend that they should be the ones that set interest rates in the U.S. and not a bunch of propeller heads at the ECCLES Building… That have never worked in the economy and only have studied it…   Seems like a layup decision to me, but then I think with logic… 

I also have always contended that the ADP Employment Report should be the go-to for labor data… 1. No hedonic adjustments, and 2. Any new hires or fired employees would be on the ADP records…  again… Logic…

OK, enough of my self-promoting myself for Chief of Data! 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar buying finally stopped… The BBDXY is lower by 3 index points this morning, but the currencies remain in their respective sick beds, waiting for the doctor to release them.  Gold is up $30 to start the day… And Silver is up 66-cents… If these two metals remain in the green today it would mark their first 2 consecutive day gain in over 2 weeks! Could this be the end of the “wash, rinse, wash” cycle for the SPTs? I would certainly hope so… They are dastardly demons, folks… I’m just saying…  And Oil sits at $59.99 this morning, so just barely below $60… And the 10-year starts the day with a 4.14% yield… 

I’m reading an article this morning about a liquidity shortage of dollars… I don’t have to time to go through it this morning, but when I write on Monday, I should have something for you… so stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

And circling back to the price of Oil… The slippage came as a result of 2 things: 1. The Saudi’s cut their prices… and 2. The U.S. reported a glut of Oil in supply… So, add those two together and I’m surprised that the slippage wasn’t larger… 

Well, the questions surrounding tariffs are still being asked… Yesterday, the Supreme Court addressed the tariffs, and basically said that it was a tax, and taxes are the responsibility of Congress… Uh-Oh… But then, no decision was made and we’re still asking the question of whether they are legal and if all the money already collected is going to be repaid…. 

And that leaves Corporations not knowing what to charge for what?  The economy is staggering and this indecision going forward isn’t helping things one iota! 

And in a case of “I missed that!”  The ADP Employment Report did print, it just wasn’t on the Economic Calendar… The report showed that there was an increase of jobs in Rocktober instead of a narrowing of jobs as forecast.   U.S. Corporations took on 44,000 new hires in Rocktober, and that beat for forecast of 22,000…  And if I’m being truthful, which I always am…. This data should have helped the dollar because it points to no rate cut in December…

But… if we go back and look at these things we see that the dollar got stronger when jobs were getting cut… So, it only makes sense that the dollar gets weaker on job additions…  I know, it makes no sense, but in recent days, we’ve kind of lived in an Opposites World… 

I don’t know if you’ve noticed lately, but the Japanese yen has been getting weaker and weaker VS the dollar…  The other day, yen was 155… And that brought about many calls for intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)… But I doubt that will be the case, for I just don’t feel intervention in my bones…  And unless the dollar continues to get bought and gets stronger, I think yen will hover around 155 for some time… 

On a sidebar, it was 69 years ago that CBS first aired The Wizard of Oz on TV…  Man, I remember watching it the first time and being scared and didn’t want to watch the flying monkeys…  But over time, I grew to love the movie… And I used to do a little skit from the lollipop gang, and people around me would crack up! 

I saw a list of Corps that had announced layoffs recently, and the list, that by no means had every Corp that had announced layoffs on it, but the total was nearly 200,000 jobs axed…  I wonder how the BLS would be reporting these layoffs… Probably by adding jobs using their Birth/ Death hedonic adjustment…  Yes, I’m being facetious but… The BLS deserves it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still showing that one is the loneliest number that would ever be….  But I have this:  “I came across this in Bill Bonner’s Private Research newsletter yesterday: “Rising delinquencies in auto, credit card, and student Household debt climbed to a record $18.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while the nation’s gross federal debt hit $38 trillion for the first time. The figures highlight mounting strain across every layer of the U.S. economy — from Washington’s balance sheet to families’ credit card bills.”

Chuck again… I think that we, as a country are circling the bowl.(economically) .. When will it get flushed?  I don’t know, but it won’t be too much longer…. 

And one more thing… I had someone tell me that I sell doom… Really? C’mon we’ve been through this before… I merely write about the things that are on the horizon that could impact your investment portfolio, if it’s not good news, so be it!  Don’t shoot the messenger… 

To recap… The dollar drifted throughout Wednesday, and Gold & Silver rallied… Chuck asks, is this another false dawn or is this the beginning of the next phase for the metals?   The Supreme Court left the door for Tariffs ajar yesterday, so Corps still don’t know what to do…  And it was 69 years ago that the Wizard of Oz was first shown on TV…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I talked about the layoffs in this country a lot lately, and so this article sums it up, and it can be found here: US Edges Towards Layoffs as Job Market Cools, Fed Rates Pressure Firms – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve’s ability to avert a downturn rests in part on just how long a post-pandemic irregularity can continue: labor hoarding.

Even with interest rates at the highest level in more than two decades and signs of a cooling economy, businesses scarred by pandemic-era worker shortages have largely avoided layoffs. Instead, they’ve pulled back hiring, trimmed job openings and reduced hours.

But recent data is stoking fears employers may soon near the end of their rope — and pick up the pace of job cuts.

Job Market Warning Signs

Firms have largely avoided layoffs, but labor demand continues to cool

The labor market is “at the tail end of this sort of slowing that was probably in train because the economy was normalizing from the pandemic,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. “If you let this situation continue to trend in the way it is, things run a high risk of breaking.”

The delicate state of the jobs market is not lost on Fed officials, who have increasingly shifted their focus to avoiding a surge in unemployment. While they have long wanted to cool down an overheated labor market, officials are wary of it softening too much, especially with inflation now much closer to their 2% goal.

Chuck Again… The old saying about how it’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job, and it’s a depression when you lose your job, comes into play here…  And the Fed Heads have moved the labor problems to the front of the line for their attention…

Market Prices 11/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6513, kiwi .5662, C$ .7095, euro 1.1521, sterling 1.3073, Swiss $1.2368, European Style: rand 17.3686, krone 10.1675, SEK 9.5932, forint 335.42, zloty 3.6911, koruna 21.1315, RUB 81.13, yen 153.67, sing 1.3050, HKD 7.7749, INR 88.62, China 7.1208, peso 18.58, BRL 5.3452, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 99.91, Oil $59.99, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $48.68, Platinum $1,571.00, Palladium $1,430.00, Copper $5.02, and Gold… $4,013

That’s it for today and this week… My beloved Mizzou Tigers play the # 3 team in the country (Texas A&M) this Saturday… They need a HYGE upset and if they do, they’ll have done it was a true Freshman Quarterback…. UGH! The Cardinals Spring Training game Schedule was released yesterday… I got a chill up my spine when I saw it…  The Harvest Moon is here now… This super moon is the closest to Earth it will come, and it fills up the sky and really looks cool shining down on the ocean… My favorite Beach Boys song takes us to the finish line this morning: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Is AI coming for your job?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Yesterday went by in a flash, with me traveling until late last night… But I’m here now, in my winter home, for a week to break up the days in November…  Sunny and 80 is more like it, rather than those bone chilling days back home… The Dodgers had their World Series Win Parade the other day, and my mind kept going back to 2019, when our Blues won the Stanley Cup, and the parade we had in St. Louis! Seems like a long time ago, now.. UGH! Today is my “other daughter” Rachel’s Birthday… She likes to celebrate her Birthday Month, so she’ll be busy with celebrations this month… Del Shannon greets me this morning with his song: Runaway… 

I don’t think that anyone from any era would turn their nose up at that song! 

Ok, I’m tired of asking the question of who on Earth is Buying dollars?  Because it’s not just a one-time event with the dollar buying, this has really gotten a life of its own.. The BBDXY rose yesterday to end the day at 1,226… Rate cuts be damned, this is dollar buying that has gone to an extreme…  Whatcha gonna do? Well, I would suggest that you batten down the hatches and ride this out… make certain you have enough food and water stored down there, because this is going to take longer than I care to admit… 

The selling in the metals started back up again on Monday,  Gold lost 70-cents, and Silver lost 59-cents… No Biggie, right? Well, it took tons of physical buying at the end of the day to bring it back inside the park… On Tuesday, the buyers just game up, waved a white flag and went home as the SPTs sold Gold & Silver like funnel cakes at a State Fair… Gold lost $67 to close the day at $3,933. Silver lost 80-cents to close the day at $47.20…   I found it interesting that Gold was allowed to close above $4,000 on Monday, but then they fixed that on Tuesday for sure!

I found this on Kitco.com: ” Gold’s rally has entered a cooling phase after two consecutive weekly losses, but while near-term momentum has stalled, the fundamental case for holding gold remains intact, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen said that over the past two weeks, the tone “has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing how much of the 2025 narrative—rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging, and central bank demand—has already been priced in.”

The other thought that I have on Gold right now is that all this selling could have been planned to get rid of all the on the fence, short-term buyers of Gold, and when they are gone, it will leave the buyers of Gold that are going to hold it no matter what the SPTs throw at us…   And Mr. Hansen above makes a good statement when he says that the “fundamental case for holding Gold remains intact”…  Couldn’t have said it better myself! 

The price of Oil has remained trading with a $60 handle for 5 days now… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield remained above 4% at 4.07%.. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, late last night I checked the metals, and they were getting sold… But this morning, believe it or don’t, the metals are in the green! Gold is up $33 to start our day, and Silver is up 51-cents…  So, the early trading has turned things around… I have to admit though that a price of $3,966 for Gold sure looks weak given where Gold was a week or so ago… The selling has gone on for so long, that I’ve lost track of time that this has been going on… But if Gold had not gone on that ride on Mr. Frog’s Wild Ride and jumped to $4,300 so quickly, and we were just now getting to $3,966; we would be ecstatic about its level, so just to put things in perspective… 

The dollar saw a bit of slippage overnight, with the BBDXY losing 1 index point overnight and starting our day at 1,225… I’ve talked a bit too much about how the dollar buying is not warranted, and that it is overdone, so I won’t go down that rabbit hole again… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury has a yield of 4.07% to start our day today.

I found this on www.moneymetals.com : “Central bank gold buying hit the highest level of the year in September, with several new banks adding to their reserves.

Globally, central banks officially added a net 39 Tonnes of gold to their holdings in September. That was up 79 percent month-on-month and was above the 12-month average of 27 Tonnes.” 

Chuck again… yes, Central Bank buying was going on during Gold’s sprint higher, so they weren’t deterred from buying then… Just shows to go you, that when you want to buy, you buy, no matter what the price is!  

That’s how I buy things… If I need it, I go buy it, and if it’s on sale then great, but if not, no biggie to me, because I needed it… 

And I found this on Ed Steer’s letter this morning ( www.edsteergoldsilver.com ) : “Corporate America is getting rocked by historic rounds of white-collar layoffs, leading some to wonder: Has AI finally come for their jobs?

While the proliferation of generative and agentic artificial intelligence is playing a role, recent job cut announcements from companies like Amazon, UPS and Target are about a lot more than just the advance of new technology.

The firms, which each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 roles eliminated this year, said they’re trying to cut corporate bloat, streamline operations and adjust to new business models.”

Chuck again… I told you a week or so ago that the layoffs from major Corporations were piling up in numbers that were significant, so this is not new news, but a continuation of the story that’s playing out before us… 

I don’t have much else to talk about today, so we’ll just head on to the Big Finish… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is lonely… it has no one to love it… and this will go on as long as the Gov’t is shutdown. 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought on Tuesday, and the metals continued to get sold… It’s a mess in Chuck’s eye…  The dollar is overbought, overcooked, overhyped, etc. when will this end? Only the Shadow Knows…

For What It’s Worth… Well, the Gov’t shutdown has gone on as long it seems as the Gold selling, but in fact, it has gone on longer!  This is an article about the Gov’t Shutdown and its effects, and it can be found here: Record Government Shutdown Costs US Economy About $15 Billion Each Week – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, and with no sign of a resolution soon its economic toll is deepening.

Now in its 36th day, the shutdown has surpassed the previous record set in early 2019 during President Donald Trump’s first term. Every week that passes costs the economy anywhere from $10 billion to $30 billion, based on analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range.

In the past, the hit to economic growth has been temporary, with furloughed employees getting back pay and the federal government making up for the halted spending once reopened.

This one stands to inflict more damage, and not just because of its length, economists say. The economy is more fragile than seven years ago, with many Americans fretting about inflation and job prospects. And unlike during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the fallout extends beyond federal workers missing paychecks to millions of Americans losing full access to food assistance heading into the holiday season.

“The experience, historically, is that government shutdowns don’t cause calamity,” said Jonathan Millar, a senior US economist at Barclays. “This time could be different.”

Depending on its length, the shutdown could lower fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 2 percentage points, according to the Congressional Budget Office. If the stalemate extends to Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion won’t be recovered at all, the CBO said.”

Chuck Again… 4^th QTR GDP might just be negative in my view… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

Market Prices 11/5/2025: American Style: A$ .6479, kiwi .5641, C$ .7075, euro 1.1487, sterling 1.3029, Swiss $1.2341, European Style: rand 17.4647, krone 10.2306, SEK 9.5890, forint 336.79, zloty 3.7062, koruna 21.2080, RUB 81.30, yen 153.65, sing 1.3070, HKD 7.7753, INR 88.65, China 7.1275, peso 18.66, BRL 5.4005, BBDXY 1,225, Dollar Index 100.18, Oil $60.69, 10-year 4.07%, Silver $47.71, Platinum $1,542.00, Palladium $1,418.00, Copper $4.92, and Gold…. $3,966

That’s it for today… A partly cloudy day here on the coast but the sun is poking through, so that’s a good thing!  Our Blues finally won a hockey game VS the Oilers… It has been over a week of losing for the Blues, so nice to see them right the ship… The radio is playing my favorite song: Cisco Kid… So, this is going to be a great day! Happy Birthday to Rachel Butler today… I hope your day is grand! You are a GREAT daughter-in-law!  The Atlanta Rythm Section takes us to the finish line today with their song: Imaginary Lover… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar rallies on word of a Trade Agreement
• Ohio is trying to get Gold & Silver spent!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another rainy day here but it’s been so long since we had rainy days, that I didn’t mind too much!  I was reading a book yesterday, and noticed it was 2 pm… I fell asleep and didn’t wake up until it was time for Jeopardy at 4:30… I really enjoy Jeopardy, and I try with all my might to answer the clues… I rarely get many of them correct… Unless the category is rock music or sports…  My good friend, Duane is also a Jeopardy junkie like me, and last Friday we watched Jeopardy on his phone in our favorite Watering Hole!  Sam & Dave greet me this morning with their song: Soul Man… 

Well, the FOMC did the dirty deed, and they did it dirt Cheap! (AC/DC)..  The Fed Funds Rate was cut by 25 Basis Points just days after the STUPID CPI had shown that inflation had risen to 3.0%…  Dumb?  In my mind it sure was, but then this is what we have to deal with… Intellectuals making decisions that will impact us for years to come… Not Businessmen that know how the economy works…  Intellectuals, and I use that word loosely…  Powell recently told Congress that “if the Fed makes a mistake, it could cost everyone some time to come”    YIKES!  Just proves to me that the FOMC has cut rates 2 times in the past 2 meetings, while inflation is still rising, and money supply is in ample supply…  That they did those rate cuts not for an economic sense, but as a response to the pressure they’ve received from the White House… 

And guess what the dollar bugs did after another debasement of the dollar? They bought dollars! The BBDXY gained 1 index point to 1,212…  C’mon dollar bugs, have you become the scarecrow and need a brain? 

And Gold, which should have rallied on the rate cut announcement, that also had a caveat from Powell later that “a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion”, found the SPTs out and about keeping a lid on Gold. Gold lost $22 on the day, and closed at $3,931…  That was quite a turnaround in Gold that the SPT’s performed yesterday, as Gold was up to $3,955 before the SPT’s showed up with arms full of short Gold Trades… 

Silver was spared from the short selling yesterday and put in a 51-cent gain to close the day at $47.61… Why was Gold treated like a rental when Silver was given the red carpet to higher prices?  Good Question, Chuck…  And one you don’t have the answer to!  It just was…  

The price of Oil remained in the $60 handle, and the 10-year Treasury…  I didn’t believe the screen when I checked it last night… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.07%… What’s going on there?  Short term rates were lowered, and the 10-year’s yield rose? Shouldn’t that have gone the other way? Yes, sirree Bob it should have, but it didn’t and I have to go back to what Powell said, about the December rate cut not being a foregone conclusion…   That the bond boys said, yes, by then, we may be having to reverse the rate cuts…  Hmmm…  

In the overnight markets last night….  Holy Cow! (in my best Harry Cary voice) The dollar bugs have gone crazy mad! The BBDXY is up 8 index points to start our day today! What’s going on? It can’t be just the Powell words yesterday, could it? I guess so, that, and word that a trade agreement has been agreed to by the U.S. and China, although no details are being released right now…  But either way, the dollar is getting bought hand over fist this morning, and the currencies have all be sent to their respective sick beds… 

Gold is going to try to be positive again today, as it is up $37 to start our day… And Silver is back above $48 this morning, as it has gained 53-cents overnight…  Gold tried like the dickens to be positive yesterday, only to see its early morning gain get nuclear bombed by the STP’s….  

The price of Oil has slipped another buck and is back to trading in the $59 handle this morning and the 10-year added more to its yield and trades this morning with a 4.11% yield.   The bond boys have basically told the Fed Heads that they DO NOT LIKE THEIR laissez faire handling of the economy!  It will be interesting to see if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel go to work on getting the 10-year’s yield back below 4%…  Stay in your seats and keep your arms and legs tight, for this is going to be a ride on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride… 

The Good Folks at GATA sent me the following note: “Ohioans could soon buy their groceries or morning coffee with silver and gold instead of the American dollar.

House Bill 206, introduced by Reps. Jennifer Gross, R-West Chester, and Riordan McClain, R-Ashland, would establish a state currency based on gold and silver. The bill directs the state treasurer to set up a transactional currency rooted in silver and gold to address concerns with the value of the U.S. dollar.”

Chuck again, very, very interesting, eh? If this bill goes through, then it will be interesting to see how many states follow?  The first step is the biggest… I’m just saying… 

If the Fed Heads are thinking that the rate cuts will head off Corporations from cutting jobs… They are really barking up the wrong tree… I mean just in the last few days, Amazon, GM, Procter & Gamble are just a few of the BIG CORPS announcing layoffs that not just 1,000 here and there… They are Big Slices of workers axed… 

And you recall the “error” that Jerome Powell mentioned above? Well, you don’t have to worry about making an error in the future Jerome, because you’ve already made it and then doubled down!  I’m talking about the rate cuts, here folks… In case I lost you in the woods… 

The Caribbean is getting devasted by Hurricane Melissa, the largest Hurricane to hit Jamaca and has destroyed most of the island… Keep away from the U.S. please! 

That reminds me, if the Traffic Control workers are working next Tuesday as I’m heading back to S. Florida for a week…  So, early warning… No Pfennig next Tuesday…   I, of course, will remind you next Monday… 

Ok, back to economies, currencies, metals and dolts!  

Before we go to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share some word from my good friend, and Big Boss, Frank Trotter who posted this on LinkedIn yesterday…  here’s Frank: “With the US dollar declining more than it has in decades over the first nine months of the year it may be time to diversify into some foreign currencies with the potential to gain versus the USD.

For the good of the USA, we hope we don’t see another Minsky Moment but it has that feel sometime. Long ago on our Mark Twain Banks ALCO both Hy and Laurence Meyer were participants and taught all of us more about economics than our entire academic career.” 

Chuck again… Thanks Frank! BTW… Frank is busy opening the virtual doors of his new bank, Battle Bank…  They are going to do banking differently from the stuck in the mud banks that exist now…  I think it behoove you to go to their website and put your name on their “wait list”… And then sit back and wait for Battle Bank to contact you that it’s time to Open an Account!  www.battlebank.com

I kept waiting for the ADP Employment Report to print all day yesterday, and nothing but crickets… Hmmm…   What happened to the report?  Was it so bad that it got censored before takeoff?  I don’t know and there were not articles about the missing report, so we carry on despite our shortcomings! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the STUPID Consumer Confidence print for us to make fun of on Tuesday…  Consumers showed renewed confidence this month…  Apparently, they were swayed by the news that the POTUS and Xi would meet to discuss a trade agreement between the two countries…  What happens if nothing gets ironed out?  I’m just saying…  They should have saved their confidence for if or when a Trade Agreement gets worked out… That’s when they should celebrate! 

To Recap… The FOMC did cut the Fed Funds Rate 25 Basis Points but threw cold water all over any thoughts of a December rate cut…  The dollar rallied a tiny bit, and Gold turned around and got sold, while Silver rallied…  U.S. Corps are announcing layoffs of thousands of workers… And U.S. consumers are confident! 

For What It’s Worth… I thought we would talk about something here we normally don’t pay attention to, Consumer Financial Stress…  that’s what this report is all about and it can be found here: Consumer financial stress hits a five-year high as K economy grows, supporting gold prices | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Growing economic uncertainty has been a key driver of renewed investment demand for gold. While easing fears have prompted some selling pressure in the precious metal, new data highlight renewed risks for American consumers.

Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with a relatively calm third-quarter earnings season, continue to support equity markets at record highs and the S&P 500’s push toward 7,000 points. However, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) shows that consumer stress has risen to its highest level in five years.

The index rose to 71.2 in September from 68.2 in June and is up 26.3% from its post-COVID low of 56.4 in December 2021. The index has climbed steadily for seven consecutive months. LegalShield, a legal services company, provides Americans with access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation.

Specifically, the report noted that bankruptcy inquiries have skyrocketed in the third quarter. The Bankruptcy Index surged 17.4% in the last three months and is up 14% from the third quarter of 2024.

In an interview with Kitco News, Matt Layton, LegalShield’s senior vice president of consumer analytics, said that while consumer financial stress has risen more than expected, the trend has been developing for some time.

“All year long, we have been warning that consumer stress is rising,” he said. “We clearly have a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A sustained increase in consumer stress, we would expect, will lead to an increase in foreclosure and bankruptcy down the line.”

Although the “K-shaped” economy continues to grow, Layton said he suspects the two sides will eventually converge. He added that it may only be a matter of time before weak consumer demand starts to impact broader economic activity.

“We’re seeing families hit crisis mode heading into the holiday season,” said Layton. “The question now is whether this consumer legal stress translates into a pullback in spending in the final quarter of 2025.”

Although consumer financial stress levels remain well below the record highs reported during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Layton said the concern is that stress will continue to grow.

“We are concerned that these conditions will continue into 2026.”

Chuck again… Man, am I glad I’m no longer trading in the markets with all the chaos going on these days… These days I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quartertones… (J. Browne) 

Market Prices 10/30/2025: American Style: A$.6543, kiwi .5734, C$ .7143, euro 1.1566, sterling 1.3139, Swiss $1.2464, European Style: rand 17.3458, krone 10.0885, SEK 9.9512, forint 336.30, zloty 3.6765, koruna 21.0665, RUB 80.00, yen 154.24, sing 1.3018, HKD 7.7683, INR 88.70, China 7.1135, peso 18.56, BRL 5.3807, BBDXY 1,219, Dollar Index 99.55, Oil $59.90, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $48.05, Platinum $1,586.00, Palladium $1,429.00, Copper $5.13, and Gold… $3,969.00

That’s it for today… Well, the Blue Jays are one step closer to winning the World Series! The series heads back to Toronto where the Blue Jays will attempt to win just one more game before their home crowd…  I, for the life of me, hadn’t thought that the Dodgers hitters would go cold….  Oh well, that’s baseball!  The Mizzou Tigers have a bye this week, so no football game for me to stress about Saturday…  The sun is supposed to return today, so I have that going for me!  Billy Paul takes us to the finish line today with his great 70’s song: Me & Mrs. Jones… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

• Gold gets sold, but Silver sees a gain on Tuesday
• The FOMC meets today, what will Powell say?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a great lunch yesterday with my good friend and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter… We talked for a good time about everything under the sun and moon. I was full when I got home, and skipped dinner last night… REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their big 70’s hit one: Ridin’ The Storm Out

Well, I know, I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but the short selling of Gold & Silver started yesterday, albeit not as harshly as in previous trips to the woodshed that the SPTs took Gold & Silver to… Gold lost $30 on the day….. Gold closed the day at $3,953 Silver saw the same type of selling that Gold saw early in the day, but Silver rallied as the day went on and finished the day up 15-cents… and closed at $47.10…  Those are a long way from where they closed last Monday… But as Brien Lundin showed us yesterday in his FWIW article the percentage loss still wasn’t as bad as the previous multi-day engineered takedown sat at when all was said and done… So, Silver finished the day on the plus side for the first time in a week…  Now, it’s Gold turn… I guess we’ll see, eh?

The dollar gained 1 index point in the BBDXY to 1,211… Strange, eh? When everyone and their brother are awaiting the announcement of another rate cut today…   A rate cut, as I’ve said before: A RATE CUT IS EQUAL TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE DOLLAR!! What the dollar bugs don’t understand about that, I for the life of me can’t figure out, and the only thing I can think of is that the dollar bugs don’t understand the word Debasement!  Yeah, that’s it! They’re just too dumb to figure it out!  Now, I see said the blind man as he spit into the wind… It’s all coming back to me… 

The Price of Oil saw another drop yesterday this time to end the day with a $60 handle… Presumably, there’s a glut of Oil to deal with…. Hmmm….  The 10-year had already seen its yield fall to 3.98% yesterday morning, and it remained there the rest of the day.

The U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent said something yesterday that was very strange… “He said ” Gold price rising has helped U.S. substantially”  What? Really, Scott? Unless the Gov’t has backroom plans to revalue its Gold at Fort Knox… But there’s been no rumor of that happening,  not that revaluing its Gold would do anything but improve the off-balance sheet numbers, because they would have to revalue it at multiples of $10,000 to offset the debt…  The math just doesn’t work…  So, once again, is Bessent that ill-informed that he doesn’t know that when Gold gains… The dollar loses? 

I shake my head and wonder where on earth these guys come from?  Maybe he’s doing his best imitation of Bullwinkle and has something up his sleeve?  I’ll give him credit when he tells what’s in his plans… 

Frank & I had the problems with monetary policy, tariffs, The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, all figured out yesterday, but… I have you dear reader to talk to about these things, but what can we do to change things? Nothing, nada, nil, zero, zilch… All we can do is to alert people to what’s coming, and to make sure your investment portfolio is diversified with different asset classes than just stocks and bonds.. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Gold finally saw a bid! Gold is up $65 to start our day today… I guess the SPTs took a pause for the cause and decided to let Gold get to its own devices… Silver is up 10-cents to start our day today… Is this the Good Witch, Glinda telling us that everything is ok now, it’s clear we can come out again? I’m leery of another false dawn like last Monday…  The Friday before last Monday saw a major engineered takedown of the metals, but Monday the memory of the selling on Friday was erased, and that was then turned to short selling on Tuesday, through yesterday… 

The dollar slipped back to a 1,210 level in the BBDY overnight.. Stuck in the mud it seems for the dollar… The press conference following the rate cut this afternoon, will be the decider of whether the dollar continues through its underlying weak trend, or if it will rally… Chairman Jerome Powell, will need to choose his words carefully, this afternoon, and give the markets his best “Fed Speak”… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $60 handle overnight, and the 10-year bumped higher with its yield to start today with a 4.00% yield… 

Well, Doug Casey wrote yesterday in his International Man letter that “Gold has quietly overtaken the euro to become the second-largest component of global foreign exchange reserves.

While the US dollar and US Treasuries still dominate, their share has been steadily shrinking as gold’s role expands. Central banks now hold gold at roughly 20% of their reserves, compared to the euro’s 16%—levels not seen since the days of the gold standard.”   

Chuck again… I would think and this is just me thinking logically, that the Central Banks around the world will start to voice their displeasure of Gold getting taken to the woodshed….  I guess that remains to be seen, but it would certainly be on dance card if I was the head of a Central Bank! 

When the dollar selling had come to an end yesterday.. I felt as though I had been a ride on the Screaming Eagle roller coaster…  But those of us who took it for what it was and not any correction of end of a bull market, will feel as though the ride was rough, but we got through it..

And as always I’ll remind you that the SPTs provided us with a cheaper price and therefore a buying opportunity!   Don’t let this one pass, because… Well, just because… 

The currencies have been stuck in same mud as the dollar has been in recently and somedays it feels like I’m writing down the same currency levels as the previous day…  But there are two currencies that have their waders on and got through the mud just fine… The Swiss franc, and Chinese renminbi…  The franc has held onto its gains, while the renminbi is trading stronger VS the dollar… I don’t know if the Chinese plan to allow further appreciation of the currency, or is this just window dressing, if you will, for the meeting between the POTUS and Xi…  The POTUS won’t be able to accuse the Chinese of keeping their currency weak, that’s for sure!

The reports last week from Japan showed that their consumer inflation is rising to a level not seen in some time, which got the rate hike bugs all excited… But the Bank of Japan has done nothing but disappoint investors and I figure they will continue to disappoint with no rate hike. So, the yen continues to get weak…  Nothing new here… 

I don’t know if you’ve been following its progress in the currency roundup each day, but the if you haven’t, you’ll be surprised to see Copper trading above $5…  The short paper traders are focusing on Gold & Siver right now, and therefore Copper is stealth-like with its gains… 

No Data again…  This is really getting old with me, folks…  BUT! The ADP Employment Report will print today, as it’s not a government issued report… In the past, the markets don’t pay attention to the ADP report, but today will be different, in that it’s the only piece of data we have to work with…  So, watch for that… 

To recap… Gold and Silver finally saw the selling end yesterday… Chuck just got off the roller coaster ride, but is ok…  The dollar got bought by a smidgen yesterday, and once again Chuck questions the mental aptitude of the dollar bugs when they know very well that the Fed Heads are going to debase the currency today…  

For What It’s Worth… Well, here we are with yet another article on Gold.. But with all the selling lately, I find it necessary to keep Gold in the minds of everyone… So, there’s that! You can find this article on the prospects of Gold here:Gold’s not done: LBMA survey forecasts prices near $5,000 in 12 months | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “After significantly underestimating the gold’s potential for the last two years, market players are playing catch-up, with expectations that gold will test support just below $5,000 an ounce by this time next year, according to sentiment at the 2025 London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Global Precious Metals Conference.

In a survey conducted during the conference, delegates said they expect gold prices to rise to $4,980.30 an ounce. The LBMA forecast reflects a 25% gain from current prices. The bullish outlook comes as gold has dropped sharply below $4,000 after a wave of selling hit the market following record highs above $4,360 an ounce.

Last year, delegates expected gold prices to be around $2,941 an ounce; however, prices are now more than one-third higher than last year’s prediction.

Gold is seeing its best annual gains since 1979, with prices up more than 50% this year. However, it is not the best-performing asset in the precious metals space. Silver is trading at $47.14 an ounce, up 61% year-to-date, while platinum last traded at $1,591 an ounce, up more than 93% so far this year.

According to the survey, 40% of participants expect gold to be the top-performing asset in the precious metals sector through 2026.”

Chuck Again…  Take this for all the grains of sand you wish…  But for me, this aligns with my thoughts on Gold, so there’s that!

That’s it for today… The Blue Jays evened the Series at 2 games apiece… We’re in a period of rain for the next couple of days here, but Friday, it’s supposed to be clear for Halloween… I’m sure I’ve told you this before, but I enjoy giving out the treats and seeing the little ones in their costumes… The Bigger kids kind of get me rankled, but I let it slide…  I noticed one thing about seeing Frank Trotter yesterday, he didn’t seem to have aged one iota, while I know for a fact that I look in the mirror each day and don’t recognize the man in the mirror! How does he remain looking so young? Oh well, que sera sera…  The Guess Who take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: No Time…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Gold To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver continue to get sold…
• POTUS to meet up with Xi

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, yesterday I told you my thought on what’s going on with Gold right now, and then I had other thoughts come into my mind to follow that up… Ready? The Dodgers and Blue Jays played 18 last night and ended up on a walk off home run, by Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers. That gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead in games… The winner of the 3^rd game (The Dodgers last night) usually goes on to win the series… Odd games, is what my dad taught me, are the Big Ones! T-Rex greets me this morning with their song: Jeepster…  

The short selling continued with Gold & Silver yesterday, with Gold losing $130 and Silver losing $1.70… It was evident from watching the pricing of the two, that the SPTs weren’t going to stop selling until Gold fell below $4,000 and Silver fell below $48… Mission accomplished for the SPTs… Now go away, you don’t have to go away mad, just go away! But going away isn’t in the cards as the selling continued throughout the night… 

Gold tried to rally 3 different times during the night, but each time the rally was met by an onslaught of short selling… Now don’t get me wrong here, as I do realize that there is some real profit taking selling mixed in with the short selling, and those sellers that are taking profits, good riddance! They bought Gold for the wrong reason… I’m just saying… 

So, that’s what went on in the overnight markets last night, The dollar is trading at the same level it traded at yesterday morning, 1,210 in the BBDXY… Gold is getting sold this morning by $52 and Silver $38-cents…  The price of Oil slipped to trade with a $60 handle overnight, and the 10-year is seeing some buying and its yield falling to 3.98% to start the day.  

I have something from Brien Lundin in the FWIW section today, please do not skip over it… 

The POTUS is in Asia this week to meet with several Asian country leaders, but most importantly, China’s Xi…  There are rumors of a Trade Agreement being ironed out between the two mega country’s leaders…  And those naysayers that say there is no Gold manipulation are pointing to this rumor as the reason Gold is getting sold… yeah, right, and I have bridge I’d like to sell to you!  

Last week Fed/ Cabal /Cartel chairman Jerome Powell made some comments that should have sent Gold to the moon, but the short paper traders (SPTs) made certain that didn’t happen…  

What did Powell say that should have sent Gold to the moon? Well, he basically said that the Fed Heads’ Quantitative Tightening was ending…  What? Wait! He stopped letting bonds mature and not replacing them… This is a tightening of monetary conditions folks, and he’s stopping it! What’s next?  

Well, if you ask me… I see a return to Quantitative Easing (QE) coming our way, with the printing press of the money running overtime…  And who will have to deal with the outcome of this? You, me, and the guy down the street with the sandwich sign that says, “Inflation here we come”! And for once, he’ll be correct!

I read yesterday that U.S. companies have announced 946,000 job cuts so far this year… YIKES! And to top that off, with no funds coming in the house because the bread earners lost their jobs, mortgage deficiencies are rising… Yes, things are looking dire folks…  Call me Mr. Doom but someone has to be the messenger because you won’t hear The Treasury Sec. Or any Fed Head come out and tell you this…..  Rate cuts won’t help this mess we’re in… That’s why I think we’re going to start up the printing press again…  Scary, eh? And just in time for Halloween! 

For those of you keeping score at home, the Fed’s Balance Sheet of bonds that they took off the hands of the Casino Banks back in 2008 reached over 9 Trillion at one point, and their maturities have only accounted for about $2.7 Trillion… So, the balance sheet will remain above the level it stood at before they began QE… 

So much for that, eh?  And all that comes back around to why the SPTs are taking Gold & Silver to the woodshed on a daily basis… Can you imagine what Gold will do when the markets find out what’s up Bullwinkle’s sleeve? So, make Gold & Silver start at levels much lower than they were so when they do take off for the moon, they start at a lower level…. 

And it won’t affect just the metals… All commodities will take off to the moon, and the dollar? Well, the dollar might as well pack a bag for a long trip down the slippery slope…  The countries around the world that hold Treasuries are not going to be happy to be holding these bonds (our debt)…  Bond yields will have to be held back by reins that keep bond yields from rising…  And that’s called bond buying (QE)…  

So, let’s see what Jerome Powell tells us after cutting interest rates again tomorrow afternoon… Are more coming? Are the Fed Heads concerned with rising inflation? These questions are more should be asked of the Fed Chairman…. But probably won’t be asked, because journalists these days don’t have any idea who this all works, who it effects, and the market’s reaction… 

Man, I need a day off to rest up after all that thinking!  But no worries, I’m here all week, so try the veal, and tip the waiters! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty, and as long as the Gov’t is shutdown, it will remain empty…  There was a piece of data that came in last week that I talked about yesterday… The STUPID CPI had increased to 3% annually…  I really got sick to stomach reading all the reports from journalists that talked about how that was a good sign that inflation hadn’t shown higher…  What are these people smoking?  The STUPID CPI still rose, and will continue to rise as time goes on, but will we see in the Data Cupboard? Not unless the Gov’t decided to stop being childish and throwing their temper tantrums….  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The short paper selling of Gold & Silver continued yesterday BIG TIME!  And Chuck gives you the agenda for the U.S. Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, Treasury and economy going forward this morning… Are you ready?  I certainly hope so because this is going to get very ugly!

For What It’s Worth… Yesterday, I gave you an article about how Gold’s bull market wasn’t nearly done, and today I have Brien Lundin of the Gold Newsletter and head of the New Orleans Conference, the oldest (the grandaddy of them all if you will) conference.   He has some thoughts on Gold that I think best shared with you and they can be found here:October 27, 2025 – Gold Newsletter – Gold And Silver On Sale

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold and silver, as well as mining stocks, continued their retreat this week as speculators use the headlines as an excuse to cash in on their bets.

As I write, gold is down about $130 (3.2%), while silver is off around $2.20 (4.5%).

The catalyst for this latest sell-off seems to be word of an incoming U.S.-China trade deal, but really any headline would serve as an excuse for Western speculators to take profits after the extraordinary gains of the last two months.

That said, the idea that this gold market has been fueled by U.S.-China trade tensions is particularly absurd. You’d think that they’d come up with some less feeble excuse.

As an aside, before I started writing this issue today, I took a look at what I wrote last year in the Golden Opportunities issue that also came a week before our New Orleans Investment Conference.

Interestingly, gold and silver were also in the midst of a big decline on that day, with the gold price losing about 10% in the wake of President Trump’s election win, amid worries that he would choose Bitcoin to replace gold in the nation’s reserves.

That was the only real correction we experienced in this gold bull market, which began in late February of 2024. The current decline stands at about 8.5% and probably has a bit further to go in my opinion.

But like last year’s correction, this one is also based more on an over-heated, speculative rally temporarily running out of steam than anything else.

It’s important to realize that the primary drivers of this bull market — the necessity of currency depreciation in the face of unmanageable debt loads and central banks moving to the safe haven of gold in the face of this factor as well as the risk of dollar weaponization — remain firmly in place.

It’s also instructive to remember that, even at today’s lows, gold is still up 55% from the lows of that correction a year ago.

So, this too will pass. And those who take advantage of this “sale” on gold, silver and mining stocks will reap huge rewards.”

Chuck again… I’ve met Brien in a past life when I used to attend the New Orleans Conference… I agree with him 100% here… So, stay calm, batten down the hatches, and wait this selling out…  That’s all I can say here… 

Market Prices 10/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6557, kiwi .5773, C$ .7144, euro 1.1657, sterling 1,3307, Swiss $1.2584, European Style: rand 17.2562, krone 10.0022, SEK 9.3756, forint 333.11, zloty 3.6582, koruna 20.8513, RUB 79.74, yen 152.03, sing 1.2952, HKD 7.7698, INR 88.26, China 7.0997, peso 18.64, BRL 5.3736, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 98.70, Oil $60.63, 10-year 3.98%, Silver $46.50, Platinum $1,572.00, Palladium $1,374.00, Copper $5.13, and Gold… $3,928

That’s it for today… I have lunch plans today! I’m going to meet up with my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter! I’ll see how pumped up he is about Battle Bank getting ready to open their virtual doors! Man, I had a night of being like I was on steroids… No sleep! Finally, got to sleep around 3 am… UGH! Don’t know what caused that, I’ll just put it down as another feature of the chemo…  Our Blues can’t seem to get going this season, as they lost again last night… UGH! My beloved Mizzou Tigers have a bye this week, good thing too, because they need to work with the freshman QB!  Aerosmith takes us to the finish line today with their song: Dream On…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• metals continue to get sent to the woodshed…
• It’s an FOMC week…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A rainy weekend for us here, but we needed the rain so whatever came was welcomed.. That is unless you planned some outdoor activities! I’ve always said that you have to go through days like that to enjoy the sunny, great days! My beloved Mizzou Tigers fell VS the Commodores last Saturday, as they also lost their starting QB due to injury, and had to play the remainder of the game with a true Freshman at QB… UGH! There goes the Tigers run to the College Playoffs… UGH!  It made me so sad on Saturday, I didn’t want to talk to anyone! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great 70’s hit song: Radar love

Well, the dollar is range trading these days… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,212, which it has been for the last 4 trading days… What gives? Well, there’s no reason to be buying dollars, and the sellers are too coward to press the issue with the PPT hiding behind the door. The last time the dollar sellers tried to take the dollar lower, the PPT came in a made them suffer… So, I guess I get the cowardness, but only to a degree…  You only score a goal when you shoot, and you only get what you want when you dare to press the issue…  I’m just saying…

Gold ended the week it would like to forget about as it was subjected to the short paper sellers day after day last week. I won’t go through the daily engineered takedowns, but I will tell you that Gold ended the week at $4,111…  That’s a long way from the high it held on Monday last week $4,357…  So, do you think the SPTs are finished taking down Gold? I wonder if they have done enough to scared everyone that was on the fence about buying Gold, away?  

Silver suffered the same fate as Gold last week, with Silver being sold to end the week at $48.52…  The SPTs really made a point of telling us that they did not want to see Silver over $50… Silver’s high for the week was put in on Monday at $52.44… The same pep talk needs to made to Silver as I performed for Gold…  

The POTUS announced more tariffs for China last week, and that news sent the price of Oil higher… And news of one of Russia’s largest Oil refineries was stuck by Ukrainian missiles also sent the price of Oil higher, and it ended the week trading with a $61 handle… Just when I was moaning last week about how I had bought an Oil play currency! 

And the 10-year Treasury finally saw the manipulation of its yield downward come to an end late last week and immediately saw some selling that brought the bond’s yield upward to 4.02% to end the week. 

In the overnight markets last night…  The short selling of Gold & Silver continued throughout the night, and Gold is down $79 to start our day/ week. Silver is down $1.05 to start our day / week.  The dollar finally moved off of the 1,1212 in the BDXY last night, with the index falling 2 index points to start our week. The week of a FOMC meeting that will most likely bring about another rate cut.  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle, and the 10-year inched higher with its yield at 4.02% to start the week.  

I want to point out something here that I think is important… Gold is in the middle of what Kitco.com calls a “consolidation” which it may be, but I prefer to call it an engineered takedown. Any way you call it, it’s still getting sold, and the question arises “When will the selling end”?   Well, I would be fool hardy to say that I know how to tell when the short sellers have had enough… But I will point out that I’m not concerned about Gold’s drop, because it’s still trading above its 200-dayd moving avg…  To me, that’s important, and something that has occurred every time the SPTs take Gold to the woodshed. And that usually means that once the selling is over, then Gold picks up the pieces and proceeds to gain a price higher than it was before the selling began…   

So, somewhere in this selling is a buying opportunity… An opportunity that doesn’t come around very often, and one that’s screaming, there’s a Blue Light Special in Aisle 10! So, come one, come all to the Blue Light Special, it won’t last too much longer, so do not procrastinate! 

Well, bust my buttons! Last week the U.S. government added $1 trillion to the national debt in just 71 days—from $37 trillion to $38 trillion in a matter of months.  Now, that certainly didn’t take too long now did it?  

I’m not shocked that the debt is now $38 Trillion, just how quickly we got there! Recall Gov’t accounting in school? Compounding interest? Well, the debt is giving Compounding interest a new name… Compounding debt!  

The upward tick in the price of Oil has perked up the Petrol Currencies who have laid dormant for some time now… Currencies like the Norwegian krone, Russian ruble, Canadian loon, and Mexican peso are some of the Petrol Currencies that usually leas the pack when the price of Oil rises… 

The US government shutdown is now rapidly approaching the time when the tens of thousands of employees who keep security lines moving and air traffic safe will miss a full paycheck.  David Shepardson tells the Reuters World News podcast when that happens, it could finally force action in Washington. 

And this from Reuters: “The White House said there will not be a release of inflation data in November because of the shutdown. States warned that people might not receive food aid next month.”  Uh-Oh! 

OK, so the government on one hand says “no release of inflation” and then CNBC reports the following: “The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.4% and 3.1%. The annual rate reflected a 0.1 percentage point uptick from August.

The CPI reading is the only official economic data allowed to be released during the government shutdown.”

Ok, so that explains everything… NOT!  But what did I tell you a month or so ago, when the talk was all about a rate cut? That cutting rates now, while inflation was still above 2% and with money supply soaring, that it was a recipe for higher inflation in the coming months!  And what do we have now? Higher inflation and it’s just getting started, folks…  

Well, this week will bring us to another FOMC meeting that will be held on two days this week,(get the board games out!) and will most likely bring about yet another rate cut that is not needed… I think that the SPTs got wind of the rate cut, and figured that (rate cut)  would be a springboard for higher levels for the two metals, and decided to take Gold & Silver down to lower levels to start their rise… 

I find that putting myself in the SPTs state of mind, helps me to come up with that stuff!  I used to do that same thing with Big Al Greenspan, putting myself in his state of mind, led me to being ahead of the FOMC…  Not bragging, just stating facts… 

The news stories are full of article about how Gold & Silver have topped… I have something for you on this in the FWIW section today, but first, I wanted to point out something that is obvious to me…  Consumer demand is still lacking…  And to my point of view Consumers are usually the last to get in on a rising item, and when they do they drive the price so high that the euphoria goes crazy… And that scene hasn’t happened just yet..  So, with that information, I think all those articles about Gold & Silver topping out are dead wrong!  Just my two cents worth… 

I’ve already brought up the U.S. Data Cupboard, and inflation…  the FOMC meeting this week will be the BIG Kahuna of events this week… But one that will be muted in effect, for most of the world has already priced in another rate cut…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Gold & Silver ended last week down, after suffering through 4 consecutive days of short selling, and engineered takedowns by the SPTs… The dollar has been stuck in the mud for 4 days too… The price of Oil has perked up, and the yield on the 10-year’s buying has disappeared for now… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I presold this above, but here it is… An article about how Gold has not topped, and it can be found here: Gold’s Rally Just Cracked but One Private Bank Says It’s Not Over – Markets Insider

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold’s record-breaking run snapped on Tuesday, tumbling in its worst single-day drop in 12 years after a historic rally.

Still, the yellow metal’s underlying supply-and-demand dynamics remain solid — even at “significantly overbought” levels in the short term, wrote analysts at Lombard Odier, a Swiss private bank, in a note on Tuesday.

“Technical signals are challenged by today’s more fundamental environment of accelerating demand and constrained supply,” wrote Kiran Kowshik, a global foreign exchange strategist, and Luca Bindelli, the bank’s head of investment strategy.

Prices have climbed as much as 60%, as investors — from central banks to private funds — sought protection from persistent inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risk. At the same time, supply remains constrained.

That dynamic will likely support prices, with official-sector demand a key stabilizing force for gold.

“Central banks still create a higher gold ‘floor,'” the strategists wrote, adding that the institutions have steadily built up their gold holdings since 2008.

“Over many centuries, gold has offered — and continues to offer — currency-like characteristics: it serves as a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value,” they added.”

Chuck Again…  yes, a “store of value” it once provided that and still does!

Market Prices 10/27/2025: American Style: A$ .6557, .kiwi .5766, C$ .7154, euro 1.1648, sterling 1.3349, Swiss $1.2577, European Style: rand 17.2041, krone 9.9944, SEK 9.3673, forint 334.27, zloty 3.6467, koruna 20.8847, RUB 79.13, yen 152.62, sing 1.2959, HKD 7.7611, INR 88.39, China 7.1058, peso 18.39, BRL 5.3658, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 99.04, Oil $61.46, 10-year 4.02%, Silver $47.47, Platinum $1,595.00, Palladium $1,437.00, Copper $5.17, and Gold… $4,032

That’s it for today… The World Series in baseball is on its way, with 2 games played so far and the Dodger and Blue Jays have each won one game. The series now goes to L.A. For 3 games… I’m torn here because I root for the Blue Jays, but I’ve always rooted for the National League in the Series…  I don’t have any Dr. appts this week, and next week I go to Florida! My oncologist was concerned that I don’t drink enough water… I told her ” I’ve had a problem with retaining water, why would I put more in my body?”  She had a response that I really didn’t listen to…  Other than that my bloodwork was good, scans were good, so I’m still here kicking! Buddy Miles takes us to the finish line today with his song: Down By The River…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• metals get taken down again on Tuesday
• Who’s selling and what, paper?

Good Day… And A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I don’t know how it happened, but I basically slept most of the day on Tuesday… I had told you that there was something wrong, and the fact that I kept falling asleep was proof in the pudding…  There’s just “something” that’s awry with me and I can’t pinpoint it. My vitals are fine, so I guess I’ll have to find out tomorrow when I visit my oncologist.  Our Blues have been a hit and miss team to start the season, and last night they lost in overtime. UGH! The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with their song: Can’t You Hear Me Knocking…

Well, the carpet bombing took place again on Tuesday, that’s 2 of the last 3 trading session, with Gold recovering its losses on Friday with Monday’s $107 gain… But yesterday, the SPTs made sure it would take Gold a few days to recover its loss of $233… Gold closed yesterday at $4,124…  Silver took in on the chin, the gut, the cheek and everywhere else it would hurt to take a hit that caused a $3.70 loss… Silver closed the day at $48.74 … this is even a little too much for the SPTS alone and therefore, I looked for something else that would tell me what the hell went on yesterday, and I found it, and you’ll find it in the FWIW section today… 

The dollar didn’t move yesterday after its 3-index point gain overnight and ended the day at 1,212…  No dollar manipulation yesterday… But on the day, it gained the 3-index points from overnight, so it had that going for it… Don’t look for any outliers in the currencies for there aren’t any that haven’t lost a pound of flesh to the dollar… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $57 handle, and the 10-year’s yield dropped a bit more to 3.96%…  

In the overnight markets last night…. There was more selling of Gold & Silver, and once again, who’s selling? And is it paper or metals trading? From the looks of it, it’s more “dash for cash” with the SPTs joining in to make it look ugly once again… Gold is down $82 to start the day, and Silver is down 72-cents… I read this morning that the drops yesterday for Gold it was a worst one-day drop in years, but… the long-term uptrend for Gold remains solid…  That’s little solace for those that hold the metal and are wondering about its future… Just remember you bought Gold as a store of wealth, and it remains a store of wealth, no matter what the SPTS do to its price… 

The dollar bumped higher by 1 index point in the BBDXY overnight, to start our day at 1,213… The euro has dropped below the 1.16 handle, and the rest of the currencies are in their respective sick beds… The one currency that hasn’t succumbed to the dollar buying is the Chinese renminbi… But that’s another huge pile of cards to go through… that… we’ve gone through previously, so no need to rehash it now… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $58 handle this morning. You know, I read a piece a while back that I was going to bring forward but completely forgot about it.. The piece talked about the shale Oil guys and how they needed a least a price of $60 for Oil to make a profit in their Oil production…  We’ve been below $60 for some time now, and I wonder if they just shut down or go into low production mode during this time… Any Oil guys out there want to chime in?

And the 10-year Treasury saw another basis point of yield go to the wayside overnight, and it begins our day with a 3.95% yield… From the looks of everything this morning, I just want to go back to sleep and fuhgeddaboudit… 

I think I was so susceptible to the sand man yesterday, because, deep down, I didn’t want to watch what was going on in Gold…  And speaking of Gold, yesterday, I told you about a video of Warren Buffett telling us bad things about Gold… And later I received a note from an astute reader who told me it was fake, that he really didn’t say those things…  So, I was glad that I didn’t get any requests from readers to send it to them… They must have known! Dang AI… When will we know for sure what’s real and what’s AI? 

And the Good Folks at GATA sent me the following: Who’s selling today, and what – metal or paper? The Mainstream Financial journalism won’t ask…  and here’s a sample of what they were telling their readers: “Market analysts are searching for an explanation for today’s bombing of gold and silver prices. For example:

Gold and Silver Prices Slide in Abrupt Selloff

And this from the WSJ… 

The sudden fall in gold and silver prices lacks a clear trigger, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks writes. …

The fall is likely caused by stretched valuations and signals that U.S. CPI data could be softer than expected, she adds.”

And adds: “A slide in prices isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it shows that investors aren’t getting too far ahead of themselves and that there is a limit to gold’s exuberance, Brooks writes. While the decline has been more severe than expected, the fundamentals propelling gold and silver upward remain, she adds.”

Chuck again… See what the good folks at GATA are talking about? Not one mention of the paper selling going on… But what do you expect from today’s journalists? No one looks under the hood..  I’m just saying…

Hey, the POTUS signed a deal with Australia to get rate earths from them… It’s going to cost us $8.5 Billion… Oh well, fat chance that will get paid in real dollars, because real dollars don’t exist any longer! At least we won’t have to get them from China who is balking at sending them to us…  Forget-about-them! If the boy want to fight you had better let them! (Thin Lizzy)

The lawmakers are acting like young children on the playground…  You’re to blame, No, you’re to blame, no you’re to blame, no you’re to blame…  Will the conflict ever be put to bed?  Hey! Let it go to the next mid-terms and then we can kick out all those running for reelection and get in new buffoons who might be able to direct some attention to the plight of Consumers, and farmers…  I like that idea… a lot!

To recap… It was a really ugly day for the metals yesterday, really ugly… I don’t know how to describe it without getting lewd, crude and socially unacceptable! And the journalist that cover the metals don’t have a clue, because they are told not to look under the hood here…  I shake my head in disgust with these buffoons!

For What it’s Worth… It’s been a month of Sunday since I last quoted Danielle DiMartino Booth, as her service went to subscription based, but I found her on Kitco.com yesterday, and here’s her description of what went on yesterday in the metals and it can be found here: Ex-Fed insider warns of systemic ‘liquidity crisis,’ sees gold sell-off as a major ‘distress signal’ | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “A former Federal Reserve advisor issued a stark warning on Tuesday, arguing that a systemic “liquidity crisis” is already underway, a development she says will force the central bank to abandon its inflation fight not because it has won, but because the financial system itself is breaking.

The warning comes amid a period of pronounced market contradiction. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 200 points, fueled by strong earnings from companies like General Motors and Coca-Cola, pushing the S&P 500 to within fractions of its all-time high. This optimism stands in sharp contrast to the stress emerging in the fixed-income and commodities markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, who served as an advisor to former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher from 2006 to 2015, says this divergence is unsustainable. Now the CEO of QI Research, a macroeconomic consulting firm, Booth has been a persistent critic of Fed policy, arguing the central bank’s actions have created deep-seated vulnerabilities.

“It certainly looks like the system is running out of sufficient liquidity,” Booth said in an interview with Kitco News. “And that the Fed is going to be forced to pull over to the sidelines.”

Her assertion refers to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy of “quantitative tightening” (QT), a program that has been removing liquidity from the financial system by letting up to $95 billion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities mature off its balance sheet each month.”

Chuck again… This has always been my biggest concern with the metals, that when push comes to shove, the people that bought Gold & Sliver for a commodity and not a store of Wealth, will be the first to “dash for cash” when the going gets tough… 

Market Prices 10/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6487, kiwi .5740, C$ .7129, euro 1.1587, sterling 1.3316, Swiss $1.2556, European Style: rand 17.4723, krone 10.0520, SEK 9.4379, forint 335.80, zloty 3.6514, koruna 20.9766, RUB 81.74, yen 151.76, sing 1.2990, HKD 7.7700, INR 87.93, China 7.1252, peso 18.40, BRL 5.3881, BBDXY 1,213, Dollar Index 99.08, Oil $58.03, 10-year 3.95%, Silver $48.02, Platinum $1,554.00, Palladium $1,429.00, Copper $4.96 and Gold… $4,042.00

That’s it for today… And this week… Sorry about tomorrow, but Dr. Appts go first! My beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Nashville to play Vanderbilt on Saturday… A BIG Game for the Tigers because Vandy is ahead of Mizzou in the polls… The top 12 teams get into the College playoffs. So, Mizzou needs to keep going higher in the polls!

Sly and the Family Stone takes us to the finish line today with their big hit song: I Wanna Take You Higher… They performed that song at Woodstock and I will always recall how Sly Stone had on this white fringe jacket and raising his arms over his head and singing I want to take you higher! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get sold overnight
• Frank Trotter visits us this morning!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, Game 7 didn’t disappoint, as it was very good… I sat outside reading for hours yesterday, the sun was warm, and I loved it! The temp was the highest it’s supposed to be the rest of the week, so I had to get in my outside time! Congrats to the Bue Jays, they will be the American League representative to play the Dodgers in the World Series that begins on Friday… I’m still not out of my funk I’ve been in since Saturday… And I received word on my chart of the scans results… No new cancer anywhere in my body… And the lesion in my jaw has shrunk significantly…  Maybe I’ll start feeling better… Steely Dan greets me this morning with the title song of the album of same name: Aja

Well, once again Gold has grabbed the brass ring, and gone on to gain momentum once again. Gold gained $107 on the day Monday, as physical buyers of Gold tried to shove it the SPTs face after taking Gold down $75 last Friday.  Silver tried to cut into its $2.25 loss last Friday, by gaining 58-cents… Gold closed the day at $4,357, and Silver closed the day at $52.44…  

I don’t know how to express my feeling for the SPTs without cussing and calling them names and accuse them of awful things… So, I’ll just move along and be very glad that their engineered takedown was only a one and done… 

The dollar had gained 2 index points overnight Sunday night, but gave one of them back during the trading day on Monday… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,208… I just keeping scratching my bald head, and wondering who’s buying dollars right now? 

I found this on Reuters yesterday… “- The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention.

Official employment data hasn’t been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed’s own economic field reporting, still underway at the self-funded central bank, showed possible cracks in consumer spending, and recent business confidence surveys pointed to a dip.

Chuck again… Yes, and even without any data that counts, the Fed Heads are ready to cut rates again next week when they meet at a 2-day meeting…  and still the dollar gets bought here and there… Wonders never cease!

The price of Oil remained trading with a $57 handle, and the 10-year dipped below 4% yield to end the day with a 3.98% yield…  I said about 10 days ago, that I wondered if the Fed Heads would be finished manipulating the yield lower when they got the yield below 4%? The 10-year’s yield did fall below 4% yield a week or so ago, but that didn’t last, so the Fed Heads had more work to do… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The short paper traders are at it again overnight, with Gold down $132, and Silver down $2.53… This is getting ugly today, and any bullion bank that has a short position should be closed! Gold had just gotten back on the rally tracks when the SPTs showed up to knock the metals off! This has got me so furious this morning, and with me feeling under the weather, the two don’t go together so nicely! 

And to add salt to the wound, the dollar is rallying, as it got bought overnight, and the BBDXY gained 3 index points to 1,212… The PPT must be in to manipulate the dollar and keep it from falling because I know of no one that is buying dollars..  So, it’s a Manipulation Tuesday today… I guess we’ll just have to batten down the hatches and ride this out… As REO sang years ago, Ridin’ The Storm Out…   

And the currencies have been sent to their respective sick bed, sans the Chinese renminbi,… Every time the currencies get out of their sick beds the manipulation in the dollar begins and sends them right back!

The price of Oil remains in the $57 handle and the 10-year Treasury’s yield starts today at 3.98%…  The 10-year has seen so much manipulation that’s it’s difficult to tell when it’s the Fed Heads selling or another entity… UGH!

Tariffs are making items that we buy and use every day more costly… But the Gov’t doesn’t seem to care because… The U.S. government ran a slightly smaller budget shortfall in the most recent year thanks to higher tariff revenue — but the national debt still rose to another record high and shows no sign of slowing.

The annual budget deficit slipped to $1.76 trillion in fiscal-year 2025 from $1.82 trillion in the prior year, the U.S. Treasury Department said Thursday. The government’s fiscal year runs from October through September.

So, we as the people have that working for us, eh? NOT! Well, at least the national debt will not explode higher as it has in previous years, but… Your debt will certainly go higher because Citizens are going through their disposable income faster than a speeding bullet. 

And, with consumers parrying back… The U.S. economy has lost momentum over the past 2 months, per the Fed’s/ Cabal’s/ Cartel’s Beige book findings… Only 4 of the 12 districts showed some growth… This is just the beginning, as the tariffs are just now starting to filter through to consumer items… Mark my words on this folks… We will be in a World of Woe coming to us sooner than you might think…

High inflation and lack of jobs leave Americans frustrated with the economy, and when “the people” get frustrated with the economy, they shut down…  At least that’s what has happened in past slowdowns…  And 75% of Americans say they’re struggling with inflation, a recent survey shows. 

OK, what to talk about next? Should we talk about the US, Argentina Signing a $20 Billion Swap Deal Amid Deep Peso Rout…   Now, I understand that China is moving in on most S. American countries for trade, and Brazil stands alone as a U.S. ally, I get it that the U.S. wants to help Argentina, but we have problems of greater degree here in this country, right?  So, bully for Argentina… not so much for consumers here in this country…

The farmers are the group I’m talking about… Their bins are overflowing with crops that have nowhere to go…  I’m all for the farmers they are the forgotten folks in the tariffs war…  Buy local produce at the grocery store every time you need to buy some!

A dear reader sent me a link to a video yesterday of Warren Buffett talking about how Gold is going to come upon something terrible…    Now, if you follow Mr. Buffett, you are aware that he has not owned Gold before, or ever… But, he does own stocks and bonds, mutual funds, and hedge funds. So, to me, it makes sense that he disses Gold to promote what he owns!  If you want to view the video, send me a note and I’ll send it to you… Otherwise, file this away along with the folks that say that Gold will go to $25,000….  

The U.S. Data Cupboard still is barren and yesterday supposed print of Leading Indicators failed to launch… Maybe they didn’t want to print it because it was so bad…  Maybe, just maybe, because you never know… (Andujar) 

To recap, it was Gold’s day, as it gained $107.00 on the day, thus more than making up for the $75 loss the SPTs hung on Gold on Friday…  Gold also reached another new all-time record level of $4,457.00 The dollar drifted all day yesterday, and ended up giving back 1 index point in the BBDXY, of the 2 index points it gained overnight… 

Chuck is concerned about the farmers… His grandfather was a farmer, so now you know…  

And before we go to the BIG FINISH… I have a special treat for you today… It’s a note from Frank Trotter, President of Battle Bank, and my boss again.. Here’s Frank:

“Last week Chuck asked about the inflation-adjusted price of gold, but after all, what should be the price?  Prior to December 31st, 1974 while it was not legal for US persons own gold, the price in US dollars was $35 as established by the US Treasury for limited conversion of US dollars by foreign central banks.  As with any price fixing the real value was therefore unknown.  Once the convertibility was lifted in 1971, and in 1975 US persons were allowed to own gold, the market began to discover prices.  In the midst of the early 1980s inflation and Volcker-driven rates the price rose over 2,000% to $880 before falling off for around 25-years.  

Sticking to Chuck’s question, between 2010 and 2025 the CPI (no, I don’t believe it either but . . .) increased a nominal 49% while gold rose 206%.  One back-of-the-envelope method would be to say that in real terms therefore gold was up 157% (206-49).  Well lookie there, not uncoincidentally M2 money supply, which after all defines actual inflation, was up – drum roll – 158%.  Of course we might say that the value of gold hasn’t changed, the value of US dollars has declined.  Linking that to the real world, an old saw in the precious metals analysis is that an ounce of gold will buy a quality men’s suit.  Checking in with off-the-rack prices from a few Saville Row tailors last night pointed to a $4,000 price, and again lookie there, a roughly $4,300 market price for gold.  What should the price be?  Well, the invisible hand is pretty good after all.”

Thanks Frank!

For What It’s Worth… Well, we had Warren Buffett give us his take on Gold… And now we have Ray Dalio give us his take on Gold, and it can be found here:  Ray Dalio Explains Why Gold & Why Now… | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated on Friday that gold has started replacing some U.S. Treasury holdings as the riskless asset for investors, amid a continued surge in the yellow metal’s prices.

This comes after he said investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold even as the precious metal surged to new all-time highs this week.

“Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio,” Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich, Connecticut.

“If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective, you would probably have something like 15% of your portfolio in gold … because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down.”

In a follow-up post on X, Dalio summarized his answers to the many questions and his views on the barbarous relic…

You seem to look at gold and the gold price differently from most people. How do you think about gold?

You’re right. I think most people make the mistake of thinking of gold as a metal rather than as the most established form of money, and they think of fiat money as money rather than debt and they think that fiat money will be created to prevent debt defaults. That’s because most people have never lived with gold being the most fundamental money, and they haven’t studied the debt-gold-money cycles that have occurred in almost all countries over almost all time. However, anyone who has seen gold-money and debt-money evolve over time has a different view.  In other words, to me gold is money like cash—over time, it has had about the same real return (1.2%)—because it doesn’t produce anything. But like cash, it has buying power that can be used to create money that is borrowed and enable people to do things like build money-making businesses that are owned via stocks. If those stocks are solid and produce the cash needed to pay back the loans, then of course the stocks are better. When they can’t pay back the loans and fiat money is printed to prevent the default problems, then non-fiat money (gold) is most valued. So, to me, gold is money like cash, except unlike cash it can’t be printed and devalued. It’s a good diversifier to stocks and bonds when bubbles pop and/or when people and countries don’t accept each other’s credit, like in wars.

In other words, to me gold is the most sound fundamental investment rather than a metal. Gold is money like cash and short-term credit, but unlike cash and short-term credit which creates debt, it settles transactions—i.e., it pays for things without creating debt and it pays off debt.

Anyway, it has been obvious to me for some time that the relative supplies and demands of debt-money and gold-money were shifting against debt money’s value relative to gold money’s value. As for the right price for debt money to be relative to gold money, given the ratios of supplies and demands for each of them, and given the sizes of bubbles that could go pop, I know that I want to keep my piece of gold that’s part of my portfolio, and I think that those who are wrestling between having no gold at all or a small amount of gold are making a mistake.”

Chuck Again… Well, I’ve stated before that I read Ray Dalio’s books, and think of him as a very astute investor, very well read, and is up on history… So… I think I’ll stick with Ray Dalio on Gold…

Market Prices 10/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6493, kiwi .5723, C$ .7120, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3397, Swiss $1.2578, European Style: rand 17.3177, krone 10.0510, SEK 9.4185, forint 335.56, zloty 3.6514, koruna 20.9393, RUB 81.18, yen 151.95, sing 1.2974, HKD 7.7715, INR 87.93, China 7.1187, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3882, BBDXY 1,212, Dollar Index 98.89, Oil $57.93, 10-year 3.98%, Silver $49.91, Platinum $1.554.00, Palladium $1,141.00, Copper $4.99, and Gold… $4,224.

That’s it for today… A very long Pfennig today… take that to heart when there won’t be a Pfennig on Thursday this week, as I’ll be at the hospital seeing my oncologist… and an infusion… UGH!  So, I’ll cut the ending short today, due to the length of the letter…  Have you ever wondered how I get so much into a letter and get it out early in the morning?  Well, if you figure it out, tell me! HA  The Pousette-Dart Band take us to the finish line today with their song: Amnesia… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get sold like funnel cakes at a state fair on Friday
• Who in their right mind would be buying dollars?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I had a crappy weekend, health wise, I just didn’t fell right… But then what do I expect having put poison in my system for over 18 years…    Don’t feel sorry for me, it is what it is… I carry on, because, as I told a doctor a year or so ago… I’m going to live to see my granddaughter walk down the aisle, to see my grandsons grow to be wonderful young men, and little Evie to become my best buddy…  Delaney is 18 now, and will be going away to college next fall, so I’m holding on… Can you believe that? My little d is 18! I recall sitting at a booth in Vancouver showing customers that asked about her, pictures of her when she was 3….  The Patti Smith greets me this morning with her hit song: Because of The Night… 

Well, Ed Steer said it best in his Saturday letter: “Da Boyz’ Carpet Bomb the Precious Metals”..   I questioned whether or not the STPs were relevant last week, but I guess they proved that to not be…. Gold was up $118 on Thursday last week, and it appeared that Gold had all the momentum to rise further on Friday, but Friday the SPTs came at Gold & Silver with a vengeance that I’ve seen only a couple of times previously… At one time Gold was down $111 on Friday, but fought back to show a loss of $75, and close the week at $4,250.   Silver was also treated like rented mule o Friday, after gaining $1.13 on Thursday, Silver was sold short to the tune of a $2.25 loss on the day… Siver had gotten as high as $53.76 before the SPTs went to work… Silver closed down $2.25 on Friday and ended the week at $51.86…  it was, without saying, a very ugly day for the metals… 

Platinum lost $101 on Friday and Palladium lost $144!!!   Copper was immune to the SPTS and lost $3…  UGLY… VERY UGLY! And leaves the question: Have the SPTs done enough to scare away the buyers of these metals?  I doubt it… Which means we’ll be subject to more days like this in the future, but keep in mind that these are paper trades and have nothing to do with physical metals (expect the price) and the momentum that Gold and Silver have right now is tremendous…  I’m just saying

The dollar drifted around late last week losing 2 index points on Thursday and then being stuck in the mud on Friday…  The dollar is in deep dookie folks… and while it will take a bit to get the dollar back to the sub 1,000 level again, it will get there, I can feel it in my bones… 

One currency is bucking the dollar buying and that is the Swiss franc… which tells me that a flow to safe havens is on…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck on Thursday, and gained 50-cents on Friday to end the week trading with a $57 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury’s yield fell below 4% at 3.97% on Thursday, but then came back to end the week on Friday with a 4.01% yield..

In the overnight markets last night…  there was some dollar buying, (who in their right mind?) and the BBDXY has gained 2 index points overnight, to start our day/ week at 1,209… Gold is up $13 to start our week today and Silver is up 13-cents… After the Armagedón last week in the metals, they have to stop and pick up the pieces and start their momentum all over again and today is the best day for that!  

The price of Oil remains trading with a $57 handle, and the 10-year is starting the week trading with a 4.01% yield…  

I found this on Zerohedge.com this past weekend… “A month after bankruptcies of subprime auto lender Tricolor and auto-parts supplier First Brands, new cracks emerged in U.S. credit markets. This week, Zions and Western Alliance disclosed they were victims of loan fraud tied to funds investing in distressed commercial real estate. The revelations come amid broader credit trouble, and shifting our focus back to autos, there’s new data this morning about credit products tied to the riskiest consumers that have seen a 50% surge in delinquencies.”

Oh-no! Say it ain’t so Joe! Don’t tell me the rot is already starting…  But it sure appears that way, Tricolor and First Brands were not your run-of-the-mill companies, they were HUGE…  This is how it gets started, folks… remember 2007? We had some smaller companies bite the dust and then suddenly Lehman Brothers folded, and the debt crisis was on! 

I still get upset with the Gov’t for allowing Lehman Bros to fold… You see Bear Stearns went first, but the Gov’t negotiated a buy from J.P Morgan and Bear Stearns no longer existed… but no negotiated deal for Lehman Brothers…   I guess it all depends on who you know, right? Or whom you have pictures of…  

Well, the IMF Is throwing their two cents around and hoping that the world will take notice… The IMF recently said that the U.S. economy was still vulnerable to tariff shocks, and labor shortages tied to immigration crackdown could also sting. They also mentioned that 1 million refugees will leave the U.S. in the near future…  Good riddance, right?   not so fast there, who’s going to do the dirty jobs that these guys do? Not Terrance the III… He’s going to college to learn waiting on people…  I don’t like the influx of foreigners in the country, but until they are stopped, what are we going to do about it?

And I found this on MarketWatch, “The numbers: Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. And they’re still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon.

The first reading of the consumer sentiment survey in October was basically flat at 55.0, the University of Michigan said Friday. The index has been hovering at levels typically experienced during recessions. 

Chuck again… typically experienced during recessions.  Now that hit a nerve with me, how about you? 

The Gov’t is still shutdown, and therefore the Data Cupboard is barren most days, with non-government issued data the only prints…Like today, we’ll see the color of the latest Leading Indicators for Sept…  This data set has been printing negative for so long now, I would be shocked to see a positive print!

To recap… There was another engineered takedown of the metals on Friday last week that left a bad taste in the mouths of metals holders… Gold was up $118 on Thursday and down $75 on Friday… Tell me, can you honestly say that there’s no such thing as manipulation going on?  Gold & Silver try to pick of the pieces and star their momentum again today as both are positive to start the day. The dollar got bought overnight, and Chuck wants to know who in their right mind bought dollars? 

And the signs of Armageddon are all beginning to pop up, are you seeing what I’m seeing?

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, I saw this headline and immediately copied it and sent it to Frank Trotter, and Chris Gaffney… and said, “Can you believe that we used to tell people to do this 20 years ago?”   This is about the change of allocation in investment portfolios and it can be found here: A 20 Percent Portfolio Allocation to Gold and Silver Is Going Mainstream

Or, here’s your snippet: “In a seismic shift, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson recently came out with an investment strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold.

Now a Sprott executive has followed suit, telling a mainstream financial network’s audience that investors should consider shifting from the traditional 60/40 portfolio to a 60/20/20 allocation.

This isn’t typical messaging on mainstream financial networks.

Historically, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street was a 60/40 portfolio, with 60 percent of the holdings in equities and 40 percent in fixed-income investments, primarily bonds. The theory is that these asset classes balance each other, with stocks strengthening in a strong economy and bonds creating a hedge during downturns.

However, bonds have lost their safe-haven status in recent months. Last spring, at the height of tariff uncertainty, gold and silver rallied as bonds sold off. Gold and silver seem to be the last safe havens standing.

Given the changing market dynamics, Wilson said investors should consider a 60/20/20 strategy, swapping half of the bond portfolio for gold to serve as a “more resilient” inflation hedge.

In an interview on CNBC Tuesday (Oct. 14), Sprott director of ETF management Steven Schoffstall echoed Wilson, saying a 20 percent allocation to gold and silver will likely yield a better return than the traditional portfolio.

He noted that the pivot toward a lower interest rate environment with the Federal Reserve now in a cutting mood will likely benefit the metals.

“Gold’s always traditionally been viewed as a safe haven for economic turmoil, geopolitical instability, things that we’re seeing right now, because it doesn’t have a yield. Generally, falling interest rates are beneficial for gold. That’s when we see a lot of investors start to move into gold.”

Chuck again…  Yes, and in addition, we told people to properly diversify their portfolios they needed to have asset classes that didn’t have anything to do with the stock and bonds they already had… That meant… Gold, Silver, currencies…   

Market Prices `10/20/2025: American Style: A$ .6488, kiwi .5728, C$ .7125, euro 1.1648, sterling 1.3401, Swiss $1.2610, European Style: rand 17.3343, krone 10.0786, SEK 9.4345, forint 334.49, zloty 3.5455, koruna 20.8476, RUB 80.98, yen 150.97, sing 1.2947, HKD 7.7703, INR 87.93, China 7.1234, peso 18.41, BRL 5.4099, BBDXY 1,209, Dollar Index 98.58, Oil $57.09, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $52.01, Platinum $1,621.00, Palladium $1,470.00, Copper $4.98, and Gold… $4,263

That’s it for today…  I had to go for scans yesterday (yes, Sunday!) as it was the only day/ time I could get in at the hospital close to me…  I’m sure they will be clean…  otherwise I’m making myself sick for no reason! I’m here all week, try the veal, and make sure you tip the wait staff!  Next week will be different, but that’s then not now… Congrats to the Dodgers they swept the brewers, and they will be the national league representative in the World Series…  The Blue Jays and Mariners will play a game 7 tonight… talk about pressure! Big Country takes us to the Finish Line today with their 80’s song: In a Big Country…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please be Good To Yourself…. 

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday
• Shipping Chaos… Uh-Oh!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, I made a major faux pas yesterday, when I said that the Dodgers were up 3-0 in games, when they really were only up 2-0 in games…  I would blame the error on my fat fingers, but it really was my mind that thought they were up 3-0… And it was WRONG!  My math the other day was wrong too! I said that consumer debt per citizen was $1.4 million, but that was in error, it should have been $14,200… What a dolt I was not moving the decimal point! So, you see there, I can and will make mistakes from time to time, and I will openly admit to them, something that my wife says I don’t do! The J. Geils Band greets me this morning with their song: Give It To Me

Well, the dollar’s brief rally time is over it appears already… The BBDXY lost 4 index points on Tuesday, and followed that loss with 4 more index points of loss on Wednesday… The dollar has returned to the underlying weak trend…  That’s quite obvious, eh?  Gold continued its rise and gained $66 on Wednesday to close at $4,207, and Silver gained $1.54 to close at $53.09…   I told you yesterday that Gold would go through the $4,000’s fast and it appears to be well on the way to $5,000, and now Silver is going to go through the 50 handle quickly too… 

The price of Oil slipped back to trade with a $58 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury blipped upward to a 4.03% yield to end the day…  This after Fed Head Jerome Powell said that more rate cuts were on the way… In fact, the people that bet on rate cuts have already priced a rate cut for the next FOMC meeting in Rocktober on the 28&29th…  

In the overnight markets last night… More slippage in the dollar as the BBDXY lost 1 index point overnight and start the day at 1,209… And more buying og Gold, as it starts the day up $39 and Silver is up 4 pennies… Wait! The U.S. doesn’t mint pennies any longer, so eventually the word will disappear from your use… So, Silver is up 4-cents! The Tanglewood CIO John Merrill told people yesterday that the time to sell Gold has not approached us, that the fundamentals for more price increases are there…   I agree with Mr. Merrill… 

The price of Oil trades this morning with a $58 handle… And the 10-year Treasury starts the day trading with a 4.03% yield… the 10-year has inched higher the past two days, and it looks like the bond boys are not sure if the Fed Heads will come back and manipulate the yield lower, so they are just taking the yield higher, inch by inch… 

I met Tom Dyson many years ago in Vancouver, and thought then that he was a very intelligent young man… Well, he’s working with Bill Bonner, and Dan Denning at the Bonner Private Research group, and he had this to say about all the chaos that the saber rattling between the U.S. and China regarding tariffs and shipments are causing… “There’s going to be chaos while this all sorts itself out, with port congestion and inefficient re-routing. It’ll cause a surge in freight rates as inefficiency ties up ships and constrains capacity.”

Chuck again… I’ll tell you what this all means… it means higher prices for the goods you want and need to buy… Are you ready for these price increases?

Yes, and in all our mental genius, we have a Central Bank that is going to cut rates further with price increases ramping up and not slowing…  I shake my head in disbelief of these dolts!    

Fed Head Stephen Miran said what I’ve thought, that “he doesn’t see where cutting rates any further will have much effect on the economy”    Well, that’s a twist for Miran he was wanting larger rate cuts before, and now he sees the writing on the wall… For if zero interest rates with Quantitative Easing didn’t help the economy before, (We averaged 2% growth during that time) how is cutting rates further going to help? 

We don’t want to become Japan…  Ok, longtime readers may recall when I used to say that we were turning Japanese with our rates at zero?   The Vapors were the 80’s band that sang: Turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! 

Speaking of Bill Bonner, he has recently talked about how the late 90’s saw the dot com bubble grow on the idea that the internet was going to improve our economy in so many ways, and how that never developed… And now I wonder if the AI bubble is going to burst like the dot come bubble came to an end?   They, the AI folks, are saying the same things about AI that were said about the internet… How it’s going to change the economy and cause a surge in GDP…   I’m from Missouri, you’ll have to show me before I believe it… 

I had a longtime reader write me and ask me to quote the Gold price adjusted with inflation… So, I had to look at this… Basically, the inflation-adjusted gold price takes historical nominal prices and multiplies them by the ratio of the current US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the historical CPI at that time. This expresses all prices in equivalent current dollar purchasing power for accurate long-term comparisons.

So, with that in mind, inflation over time that would take someone with far more gray matter than I…. Maybe my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, whom I always contended that he was the smartest man in the room, would take that on?  

Ok, onto other things…  I had another longtime reader send me this: “Apparently, The treasury secretary and Trump have dreamed up a scheme to combine crypto like Bitcoin to the US dollar. In other words, people that buy these dollars get some bitcoin with it. That would mean all foreigners would be reducing our National debt. as well as us.”   

Chuck again.. I don’t know what to say to this idea… for the first time in my life I’m at a loss for words, and an idea… Hmmm….  

I guess there is anything to save the dollar, eh? The short sellers of Gold & Silver haven’t helped to save the dollar so far… They gotta try something!

This Sunday it will be the observance of “Black Monday”… Rocktober 19, 1987 the stock market crashed… I worked near the brokerage folks at Mark Twain Bank and saw the Armageddon firsthand… It was ugly!  I remember thinking that I was glad that I was no longer the head of the Margin Dept at Stifel Nicolaus…  I wouldn’t have been able to go home until every margin client got a call telling them their account was getting sold out to pay for the margin call!  

Circling back to the price of Oil…  this from Bank of America; “Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday as rising OPEC+ supply and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions deepened concerns over global demand, prompting Bank of America to warn that Brent crude could drop below $50 per barrel in the months ahead.

In midday trading at 1:13p.m. ET on Wednesday, WTI crude was trading at $58.55, while Brent was trading at $62.14.”

Chuck again… and to think I bought an Oil Play currency a few years ago thinking that Oil would rebound… Just shows to go ya, that even the so-called currency guru gets it wrong sometimes!

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still barren and it’s like a ghost town… And there doesn’t seem to be any progress on a funding bill in D.C. So, we carry on despite the shortcomings of our elected leaders… 

To recap…  The dollar’s time in the sun has been put to bed, and it’s back to getting sold… Which I told you would happen, didn’t I?  Gold had another good day, and Silver had a banner day yesterday… The U.S. debt picture is getting really bad out of focus… BOA says Oil’s price will fall below $50…  Chuck wonders if the AI bubble will go down the same road as the dot come bubble… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve talked about defaults a lot this week, and then I saw this article and knew right out of the starters blocks that it was FWIW worthy… It’s about how the U.S. is going broke and it can be found here:J.P. Morgan strategist David Kelly warns America is ‘going broke slowly’ as federal debt spirals | Fortune

Or, here’s your snippet: ” America is going broke, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, wrote in a note this week, but no one is panicking yet because the government is going broke slowly.

Kamala Harris says the ‘Glass Cliff’ Suggests Finality: “I’m Not Into That”

Kelly outlined that while the economy is facing a barrage of issues (geopolitics, trade wars, changing immigration enforcement, and government shutdowns to name a few) one of the key longer-term issues is how the U.S. government is going to pay its bills.

In a bid to wrangle down U.S. federal debt—and its contributions to the wider national debt—President Trump initially asked Tesla CEO Elon Musk to form the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with the goal of axing $2 trillion from the federal budget.

But the pair then famously fell out over the White House’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated will add another $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. The White House countered its tariff regime will offset the spending and any decrease in revenues owing to tax cuts. The CBO estimates that tariffs should reduce total deficits by $4 trillion by 2035.

America’s national debt is spiraling higher by the second. At the time of writing it sits at over $37.8 trillion, and there are $1.2 trillion in interest payments to service the borrowing. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Fed chairman Jerome Powell have both expressed concerns about it.

Kelly’s point is that while investors are mindful of the basic math, the problem is going to unfold over a long period of time.

“The question I am asked most frequently by investors and financial advisors is, ‘When is the federal debt going to blow up in all of our faces?’ My usual answer is that, while we are going broke, we are going broke slowly.”

Chuck again… here we go again with the “gradually, then suddenly” thought…  it’s coming and I don’t think that it will take as long as Mr. Kelly thinks… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 10/16/2025: American Style: A$ .6506, kiwi .5738, C$ .7117, euro 1.1643, sterling 1.3434, Swiss $1.2529, European Style: rand 17.3121, krone 10.0706, SEK 9.4520, forint 334.74, zloty 3.6479, koruna 20.5473, RUB 79.54, yen 151.28, sing 1.2959, HKD 7.7722,  INR 87.82, China 7.1263, peso 18.42, BRL 5.4543, BBDXY 1,209, Dollar Index 98.65, Oil $58.83, 10-year 4.03%, Silver $53.13, Platinum $1,682.00, Palladium $1,581.00, Copper $4.96, and Gold… $4,246

That’s it for today and this week… Little Evie’s Birthday party is tomorrow, and it’s supposed to be a rainy day, the first in a month of Sundays!  She’s such a little stinker! But cuter than a doll, so she has that going for her! I was alone yesterday evening and called Pizza Man Pizza!  And then watched the baseball game outside of course! I’m going back to S. Florida in the first week of Nov. For just a week, to get away… I love S. Florida in the fall, and winter… I’m just saying…  Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their song: Blue Mist    Mama’s Pride was a St. Louis based band, and I love this song!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler