Category: Uncategorized

• Up Thursday, down Friday for the metals
• providing guidance?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals won 2of 3 from the Dodgers, and I was surprised to say the least! Yesterday was what my good friend Duane calls “A beauty of a day”… I sat outside to watch the game and thoroughly enjoyed the day, (Except the Cardinals lost on Sunday)… Jet greets me this morning with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?

I had a fantastico Friday last week, as many of my former colleagues came to a happy hour at my local watering hole… Thanks to Chuck at FBG for taking care of me on my request… 

Well, the dollar ended the week down and the BBDXY settled in for the weekend at 1,193… So, the currency traders were taking the dollar to the woodshed late last week, a far cry from them presenting the dollar with a sash and tiara the week before…  For once… traders did what I said they should have been doing since 2/28 (Start of the war) and that was sell dollars, and buy Gold… 

Gold did see some selling on Friday after rallying on Thursday.. Gold ended the week at $4,618. Silver was bought both Thursday and Friday and ended the week at $75.76… The war in Iran has seen that major offenses take place on Fridays after the markets close…  So, I was half-expecting to see that the U.S. and Israel returned to their offensive VS Iran on Friday… But peace held…  at least as far as the common man knows it held… 

The price of Oil after a HUGE rally earlier in the week, saw the price get whittled down each day as we headed into the weekend… The price of Oil closed on Friday at $101.93… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield closed the week at 4.39% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar received some love from the traders and the BBDXY starts the day/week at 1,194… What’s it gonna be boy? (Meatloaf)  That’s what I would ask these traders, that can’t decide whether to buy the dollar or sell it…  I wish they would just pick a lane and stay in it! 

The metals are getting sold to start the day/ week this morning… the SPTs are out in force and Gold is down $52 and Silver is down – $1.91…  Speaking of picking a lane! Up one day, down the next… it shows me that there’s no clear view on the direction of Gold & Silver right now… In fact, to me all the attention has shifted from the metals to Oil, and that’s causing this back and forth in the metals… Hey! Ahem! Look over here at me! I’m still being bought by Central Banks! Hey, focus your attention over here… That’s what Gold & Silver are saying these days…

Well, the POTUS said that the U.S. Navy would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but ships are still being attacked… And that news has the price of Oil bumping higher overnight and starts our day/week with a $106 handle.. 

And the 10-year Treasury is making things difficult for the Treasury, as the bond boys have the yield at 4.41% this morning… 

Well, the economic data lately has been a bit stronger than previous prints, and that has the Fed Watchers calling for no more rate movements this year…  Now, I wouldn’t got out on that limb like they did, because I see inflation soaring and the Fed Heads will have to raise rates before year end… 

Years ago, when I was at EverBank World Markets, I used to received emails from the noted economist Gary Shilling, who would chastise me for one thing or the other…   So, I was perusing the internet on Friday, and came across a quote from Gay Shilling: ” a recession and a deep stock-market plunge are likely by year-end..  Now that’s 180 degrees away from what I just said about what the Fed Heads will have to do… So, once again, if he knew how to get in touch with me now, I would expect an email from Mr. Shilling… 

And I found this on Fortune.com… it was Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan doing an interview and he said, ” ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it”…  Was it just last week or the week before that I highlighted that former Treasury Sec. Paulson said that we need to address the debt problem now and develop “A Plan B”…  Well, these two quotes play together nicely in the sand box anyway… 

All the Central Banks that met last week left their rates unchanged…  The Bank of Canada, The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel…  Speaking of Central Banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a statement on Friday saying that rising inflation will require the RBA to hike rate… There was nothing that said when they will hike rates, just that a rate hike is in the cards…And the A$ responded to that talk, as buyers wanted to get in before the rate hike happens… The A$ ended the week at .7205

I would like to see kiwi take a flyer too… I don’t know what’s holding it back but with a rise in Commodities led by Oil, The A$ and kiwi should be looking to rise too… 

The euro has been traded the way I thought it should be… With the dollar getting sold, the euro is getting bought… Not like Gold, but it’s getting bought and ended the week at 1.1733… 

The good folks at Gata sent me a note on Friday, let’s listen in… “The U.S. national debt has now surpassed the size of the U.S. economy, a historic threshold that hasn’t been crossed since the conclusion of World War II

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today showed that the national debt held by the public reached $31.27 trillion as of March 31, while nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated at $31.22 trillion for the 12-month period ending in March.”

Chuck again… this is really becoming a major problem folks… and I’m afraid that in the end, the Gov’t will come to those of us who have no debt, to bail out the debtors…  I certainly hope not… But my spider sense is tingling when I think about this… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the ISM (manufacturing ) index for this month and it was better than the avg bear coming in at 52.7… Remember that any number above 50 equals expansion…  This data set had been below 50 for so long that I had forgotten was a number above 50 looked like!

The Cupboard today has the latest reading of Factory Orders…  It will be interesting to see if this latest run of stronger data reports carries on today… 

To recap… The dollar is back to its underlying weak trend, and Chuck was surprised as to how swiftly the dollar got sold… Jamie Dimon tells us there will be a Bond Crisis… and Gary Shilling tells us that we will see a recession and a stock market plunge before year end…  And the RBA says that inflation is rising so they will be required to hike rates soon… 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, I mentioned it above as to how all the market’s attention has been shifted to Oil… Well, this article in Reuters.com talks about all the things that are influenced by the rising price of Oil and can be found here: How the Iran war is driving up the cost of your shopping cart

Or, here’s your snippet: “A surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war is rippling through global supply chains for common consumer goods, making materials like chemicals and plastics more expensive and pushing up manufacturing and transportation costs.

The European price of PET plastic used in soda bottles and other food packaging was 15.4% higher in mid-March than a year earlier, according to data from industry publication Plastics Information Europe (PIE). In North America polyethylene was about 29% higher year-on-year in March, according to estimates from Baird.

Most plastics are made from oil or natural gas processed into chemical building blocks and then converted into polymers which are used to make wrappings and tubs for products like detergents, as well as polyester fabric for clothing.

The egg itself is produced biologically by hens and contains no petrochemical inputs, although fossil fuels are indirectly involved via fertilizer and feed production.

Most conventional tampons contain petrochemical‑derived components such as polypropylene, polyethylene, or polyester in covers, strings, or applicators.

Chocolate is primarily made from biological ingredients (cocoa, sugar, milk fats) and does not inherently require petrochemical inputs, although some brands may add synthetic emulsifiers.

Bath tissue is primarily produced from wood‑based cellulose fibres rather than petrochemical polymers, making it a biogenic, pulp‑derived product.

Most toothpaste formulations directly use petrochemical‑derived surfactants, humectants (e.g. sorbitol), polymers, and preservatives such as sodium lauryl sulfate and polyethylene glycol.

For common grocery items, packaging of any type – plastic, paper or glass – typically represents 5% to 15% of a product’s manufacturing cost, according to specialised consultancy MAT.

The average price of all groceries tracked by data firm Nielsen IQ and sold in U.S. stores, from Walmart to CVS pharmacies, rose 2.9% from a year before in the four weeks from the start of the conflict to March 28. 

Chuck again… This article goes on and on about all the things affected by Oil so if you have the time, go ahead and check it out…

Market prices 5/4/2026: American Style: A$ .7186, kiwi .5887, C$ .7350, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2760, European Style: rand 16.7373, krone 9.2629, SEK 9.2693, forint 310.95, zloty 3.6395, koruna 20.8429, RUB 75.47, yen 157.09, sing 1.2759, HKD 7.8329, INR 95.08, China 6.8289, peso 17.48, BRL 4.9555, BBDXY 1.194, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.87, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $73.56, Platinum $1,959.00, Palladium $1,499.00, Copper $5.87, and Gold… $4,562… 

That’s it for today… Yesterday was the Birthday of one of our good friends… Toni Moody… Happy Birthday month, Toni! No Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ll be visiting my oncologist, who will go over the scans I had on Saturday… Spoiler Alert, they didn’t show any new cancer…  There was a baby shower for Grace on Saturday, it was good, albeit briefly, to see all the neighborhood ladies all dressed up…  Some of them wanted to know about the scans, but at that time I knew nothing!  And so, I told them that…  Alex and Grace stopped by last night, I love it when the kids drop by… The Strawbs take us to the finish line today with their great song: Autumn..  (the Strawbs were the second rendition of the Strawberry Alarm Clock, oh you never heard of them either?  Sorry) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself…

Chuck Butler

• the war goes on, strait is closed and the dollar rallies on Wed.
• Powell’s last meeting as chairman

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals received some clutch hits on Wednesday night and beat Pittsburgh, 5-4… It took a game saving catch, robbing a homer to finally put the Buccos down… I wasn’t allowed to eat on Monday, and it was difficult to do, but I made it…  Tomorrow evening, the folks at EverBank, and other banks that used to work on the trade desk with me, will gather at my local watering hole… I am ready!  Tommy James and the Shondells greet me this morning with their song: Crystal Blue Persuasion…. 

This dollar trading is really getting on my nerves… The war goes on, so… The dollar rallies and yesterday it ended with the BBDXY at 1,202, up 10 index points… OUCH! Now, that’s going to leave a mark! The annual return for the dollar, which had been as low at -8%, is now just -1.6%…  

And with the war still hanging on, and more importantly to the asset classes, is that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut down… And that means that Gold & Silver got sold again in a “risk off” trade… Gold lost $ 52  to close at $4,549, and Silver lost $1.75 to close at $71.45… The damage that’s been done to the metals is really beginning to show wear ….  How low can they go?   With the SPTs showing up each day to make sure that the metals have a rotten day, I can’t even garner an idea of how low they can go…. 

The price of Oil is kicking tail and taking names later, as it closed yesterday at $109… There’s nothing other than ending the war and opening the Strait that’s going to stand in the Oil price’s rise…   And the 10-year continues to add to its yield, as yesterday it closed with a 4.43% yield… 

The FOMC left rates unchanged yesterday. As Jerome Powell led his final FOMC meeting be steps down as Chairman next month…  He’s not going away, as he’s staying on the Board of the Fed until all his legal problems are resolved…  The FMOC held rates steady but with the highest level of dissent since 1992… The natives were restless, as they see inflation rising and they’ll be to blame when inflation is rolling higher and higher…  

In The overnight markets last night… This surprised me greatly… The dollar got sold overnight, and the BBDXY lost 7 index points, thus basically taking out yesterday’s huge upswing for the dollar… I’m looking all over the internet for the skinny on this dollar selling, but coming up empty… I’m sure there will be something to talk about a bit later this morning…  So, the euro is back above 1.17 and the rest of the currencies have been awakened from their slumbers… 

And Gold & Silver are back on the buying table… Gold is up $52 and Silver is up $1.75 to start our day today…  It’s as if the war is over and the strait is open again… Or more like it, the traders just realized what they were doing and decided to reverse it and bring it back to reality…. 

That’s probably what’s going on… I’ll keep my ear to the ground though… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and starts today at $106… Still, quite high… And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield slip a bit overnight and starts today with a 4.39% yield… 

Well, the FOMC meeting yesterday must have been rollicking…  Here’s CNBC’s thoughts on the meeting: “However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn amid a groundswell of officials who opposed messaging that further rate cuts could be ahead. Amid expectations for a routine vote to hold the benchmark funds rate steady, the FOMC instead was split along 8-4 lines, with officials expressing different reasons for their vote.

The last time four FOMC members dissented was in October 1992.”

Chuck again…  Well, the Bank of Canada left their internal rate unchanged yesterday…  And today we’ll see the Bank of England and European Central Bank leave rate unchanged… I don’t know what these Central Banks and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel are waiting for… Do they need an engraved invitation to hike rates to offset this rising inflation? 

I guess they do… Well, don’t look at me, I’m not going to send them an engraved invitation to hike rates!  

In other news… The UAE is going to leave OPEC… Is this a problem for the group? I think so… Here’s Bloomberg.com with their thought on this subject: “The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC next month, in a significant blow to the group that raises questions about its future at a time when the industry is grappling with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war.”

I think that had a bit to do with the price of Oil’s rise yesterday… 

I read yesterday that one of the reasons that the price of Gas is so high here in the U.S. even with the fact that we are energy independent, is that the U.S. is sending Oil to countries that need it desperately… While I don’t like to have to pay $4 a gallon for gas, I can see the Oil Company’s motive (higher price for their Oil), but I don’t have to like it!

The euro is dragging the Petrol Currencies down… The Petrol Currencies like the ruble, real, and krone, should be on a big rally right now but the euro’s fall from the 1.17 handle was causing weakness in each of the Petrol Currencies…  So, the dollar strength played here too… But that’s over for at least one session…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Durable Goods Orders, and they did indeed recover from Feb’s -1.4% and came in at 1.2%…  So, for the year they are basically flat…  Hopefully, the trend is for them to continue to recover, but we’ll have to wait-n-see…

Today’s Data Cupboard is chock-full-o-data today… Personal Income and Spending will start us off, along with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the PCE index, and the leading Indicators for Feb… Isn’t that an oxymoron? They are “leading Indicators” that are from 2 months ago.. I’m just asking….

To recap… the war goes on, and so does the rally in the dollar… and the weakness in Gold & Silver…  Well, at least it did, until last night… Powell chaired his last meeting as chairman of the FOMC yesterday when they left rates unchanged… Chuck wants to know what they are waiting for with inflation rising… And the UAE is leaving OPEC…  Chuck believes it’ll be a BIG Deal…

For What It’s Worth… Yesterday, I included a quote from Ray Dalio as he was telling people that they needed to own Gold… Well, today I have a whole article from Ray Dalio stating the same stuff, but this time with some meat to his statement, and it can be found here: ‘Gold Is Money’: Billionaire Ray Dalio Urges Investors To Put 5–15% Into Gold As Iran War Threatens 20% of Global Oil Supply | IBTimes UK

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the conflict involving Iran enters its ninth week, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a clear message to global investors. In times of uncertainty, he says, gold remains one of the most reliable stores of value.

Speaking in a recent interview, Dalio warned that the ongoing war is reshaping financial and geopolitical stability. He advised that investors should consider allocating between 5 and 15 per cent of their portfolios to gold.

A War With Global Consequences

The conflict has already begun to disrupt key global supply chains. At the centre of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

Berenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds EntirelyRead moreBerenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds Entirely

Before the war, the narrow passage handled roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil. Since hostilities escalated, access has been severely restricted. This has raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions and sustained pressure on energy prices. Oil markets have reacted sharply. Prices have surged this year, reflecting both reduced supply and growing uncertainty over how long the disruption may last.

Dalio noted that control over the strait will be a decisive factor in how the conflict unfolds. He also pointed to broader concerns within the US, including rising fuel costs and political pressures linked to domestic elections.

Dalio’s argument rests on a simple premise. Gold is not just a commodity. It is, in his words, a form of money. He described gold as one of the oldest and most trusted stores of value.”

Chuck Again… thank you Ray, you are a gem in my book… 

Market Prices 4/30/2026: American Style: A$ .7150, kiwi .5863, C$ .7325, euro 1.1712, sterling 1.3526, Swiss $1.2722, European Style: rand 16.5109, krone 9.3117, SEK 9.2513, forint 311.42, zloty 3.6391, koruna 20.8159, RUB 74.50, yen 156.95, sing 1.2755, HKD 7.8339, INR 94.91, China 6.8275, peso 17.50, BRL 4.9969, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.56, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $73.80, Platinum $1,957.00, Palladium $1,514.00, Copper $5.98, and Gold… $4,642

That’s it for today… Well, it’s the end of April… it wasn’t as rainy and cold as last April, but from the weather app May looks like it will take April’s place as a rainy month… UGH!  On Saturday, I go for my scans… While there’s a baby shower going at the house for Grace…  (Alex’s wife)  I was up nearly all-night last night, don’t know why, just couldn’t sleep…  Cardinals come home to play the mighty Dodgers this weekend… I’m not so sure they are ready to play such a mighty team… But games go on… Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Out In The Country… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Throwing the dollar a life line…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I got through Monday and Tuesday and now I wait to see if I have a problem…  My scans on Monday got postponed to this weekend, as the prep for the scope on Tuesday was interfering… it was a rainy day yesterday, although I didi get out side to read right after coming home from the hospital… You’ve got to deal with the rain to enjoy the sunshine! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great song: Twilight Zone…

The war continues, so.. The dollar gained both on Monday and Tuesday with the BBDXY gaining 2 points each day… I continue to say that this isn’t the way the asset classes should trade.. With the dollar being bought and metals getting sold… But it is what it is…  

The price of Gold got sold $1.12 to end the day at $4,596, and Silver got sold $2.46 to end the day at $73.10.. I read a report the other day where the writer was saying that “Gold isn’t dead, it’s just being sold after over a 50% rise in the last year”…  Well, that might settle down some people, but not me! I just don’t see why Gold is being treated like this… But the SPTs don’t make this any easier for Gold & Silver that’s for sure!

The price of Oil ventured over $100 for a brief time yesterday before settling back at $99…  Very close to $100, but not $100… I can see the PPT working their magic…   Oh, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher to end the day at 4.35% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the war goes on, so does the dollar… The BBDXY gained 1 index point overnight, and starts today at 1,198… UGH! I wanted to mention the dollar swaps that Treasury Sec. Bessent announced yesterday… This is a nothing more than attempt to throw a life saver ring to the dollar and return wide distribution of the dollar… Good luck with that Treasury Sec.!  

Gold & Silver see more selling this morning… I just don’t get it.. Gold & Silver should be roaring right now, with inflation rising and geopolitical problems by the bushelful… But that’s not happening… I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section this morning, so be patient young Jedi, you’ll get there eventually… 

The price of Oil has risen above $100 again this morning and is trading at $103 to start the day…  And the 10-year Treasury bumped higher to trade with a 4.36% yield this morning… 

Longtime reader will recall me saying that I enjoy reading Ray Dalio…  He’s written a book that I’ve read about the history of trends, markets etc. and it’s good!  Well, he had this to say yesterday, “Let’s not be naive, ok, and say: Oh, we’re breaking the rule-based system,” Dalio said in an interview with Fortune at the WEF (1). “It’s gone. It’s going.”

Dalio was referring to the current global balance of power between nations, which has hinged on relatively predictable U.S. foreign policy.”

Chuck Again….  Ray Dalio goes on to tell readers that in times like this now, that investors should be buying Gold…  Yea, I agree… But we can lead a horst to water but not make him drink it! 

Bill Bonner was wondering yesterday in his letter, why hasn’t the stock market bubble popped yet?  Here’s Bill… “By almost all measures, US asset prices are in a bubble. Based on Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratios, for example, the S&P 500 has been this high only one time in history — at the height of the Dot.com bubble. But back then, things were looking up. The US was not at war…and the feds were actually running a budget surplus.”  

Chuck again… I say it all the time… this stock market is crazy! But, its rally lives on, and on and on… Is this an everlasting Bubble? It certainly looks like it could be….   (I figure that since I said that I jinxed stocks, so we’ll see…)

The FOMC meets today to discuss interest rates… What to do, what to do? Inflation is rising, but the White House wants lower interest rates, so much so they nominated the POTUS’s friend to chair the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and influence the rate decisions…  I afraid that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged again and rile the POTUS and the markets that are looking for a rate cut….  But a rate cut is not in the cards… Not with inflation rising and the future of inflation unknown at this time, because of the war, I just don’t see the FOMC cutting rates right now… 

That won’t be good for Gold & Silver… but then higher rates would certainly give the naysayers the food they need to sell metals…  I’m just saying…  Not that the metals can’t rally in high interest rates (remember the 70’s?) it just makes things more difficult…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the March Durable Goods Orders, and they are expected to recover April’s negative -1.4% print… So, we’ll see how good the forecasters are… Or, would they be in the same arena with the folks that forecast the weather?  There are some housing reports, but I normally don’t get into those too much… 

But nothing is more important to the markets than the FOMC meeting…  Of course, I don’t feel like the FOMC is worth a plug nickel, but that doesn’t stop the markets from genuflecting over them! 

In other countries… Greece is no longer the most in debt Country in Europe…  Word came last week that Greek debt is estimated to decline to around 137% of gross domestic product this year from 145.9% in 2025, two senior officials told Reuters. By contrast, Italy expects its debt to peak at 138.6% in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% of GDP in 2025, under the Treasury’s multi-year budget plan published this week. That makes Italy the most indebted country in Europe! 

Remember when the talk about currencies was all about the PIGS?  That stood for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain… Spain isn’t far behind Italy and Greece at this point with regards to indebtedness…. To these countries, it was Godsend when the Eurozone came along…. And made everyone look at the Whole of the Eurozone instead of individual countries… I recall when I had to know the economics of each individual country to trade their respective currencies…  Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end; we’d sing forever and a day…  No! Wait! Why’d you go there, Chuck? 

The Bank of England (BOE) will meet tomorrow and the thoughts sifting through the newswires is that the BOE will leave rates unchanged as they wait to see the possible effects of the Iran War. 

And the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet on Thursday with the ECB leaving rates unchanged for the same reason as the BOE… 

To recap… The dollar is getting bought as the war continues… Gold is getting sold for the same reason… And the STPs are ganging up on Gold & Silver’s weakness… Lots of Central Bank rate meeting on the docket this week… More like a tempest in a teacup… But the markets being the markets, they treat it like wreck of the Hindenburg! 

For What It’s Worth…   As usual, the FWIW articles are taking a back seat to the articles on the War and Energy problems, but I did find this little ditty on the out look for Gold & Silver, that is not a bright spot, but tells it like it is and can be found here: ‘Gold remains the strategic allocation, while silver remains the tactical opportunity’ – Saxo Bank’s Hansen | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Oil-led inflation risks, not geopolitics, are driving near-term weakness in precious metals, and while gold’s pullback looks cyclical rather than structural, silver’s vulnerability to industrial demand and investment flows makes it more fragile, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen noted that “rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, firmer inflation expectations and a renewed higher-for-longer view on US interest rates have together created a more challenging short-term environment for non-yielding assets,” which have driven gold prices to a three-week low.

“With Brent crude climbing above USD 111, the market’s focus remains squarely on the inflationary impact of higher energy costs at a time when AI-driven investment spending continues to support US growth, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates for now,” he said. “Adding to the near-term uncertainty, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings on Wednesday, the same day the FOMC meets to assess the economic outlook.”

Hansen said the metals’ direction will be dictated by the energy market for the time being, and he pointed to the potential reopening of the Strait and the subsequent drop in oil prices as “the biggest short term upside catalyst for the metals.”

He wrote that skyrocketing oil prices and rising inflation are strengthening the dollar and delaying rate cuts. “However, while the conflict has become a near-term hurdle, it does not represent a roadblock,” he said. “The structural drivers that powered gold’s rally over the past two years remain firmly in place and, in several cases, have strengthened.”

Chuck Again… yes, it’s the same war= dollar strength, Gold weakness mantra… But I like the part about the structural drivers still being in place… That’s something to hang my hat on!

Market Prices 4/29/2026: American Style: A$ .7158, kiwi .5858, C$ .7308, euro 1.1706, sterling 1.3509, Swiss $1.2672, European Style: rand 16.5919, krone 9.2868, SEK 9.2656, forint 311.11, zloty 3.6324, koruna 20.8227, RUB 75.01, yen 159.34, sing 1.2775, HKD 7.8366, INR 94.55, China 6.8335, peso 17.39, BRL 4.9741, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 98.69, Oil $103.39, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $71.91, Platinum $1,919.00, Palladium $1,475, Copper $5.97, and Gold… $4,571

That’s it for today…  Well, it certainly hasn’t been a week of sunshine and seashells for yours truly, but I’m still here so there’s that! Well, I’m not leaking blood from any place in my body, so now the doctor is at a loss as to why I became so anemic, and now I’m not…  I mean it was so bad that I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without feeling like I was ready to collapse! But now… no problemo! And I think baseball is strange… my body is strange!  My beloved Cardinals won in Pittsburgh last night… They hit the ball! Sure, makes a difference when you hit!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: I’m A Man… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Friday
• to many “unknowns” in the markets

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I know, I know I said on Thursday last week that there would be no Pfennig today and tomorrow… Well, I had forgotten to look at my calendar at the time I was supposed to show up at the hospital, and when I found out it wasn’t the first scan of the day, like usual, I knew I would be able to write to you this morning…  No lucking out tomorrow, as I’m still scheduled for a scope first thing…  Booker G. And the MGs greet me this morning with their instrumental son: Green Onions…

What a glorious weekend here in my river city… It was true Chamber of Commerce weather all weekend and was outside all weekend!  The Strait of Hormuz is still closed thus shutting out 20% of Global Oil shipments along with shipments of fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid…  And as long as the Strait is closed, the war will continue, and that means more dollar strength and Gold weakness… 

The dollar closed last Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY, which was just a smidgen lower than it closed on Thursday… Gold & Silver found a bid, not a real strong one, but a bid nonetheless… Gold finished last week up $17 to close the week at $4,708… Silver finished last week up a whopping 25-cents to close the week @ $75.56…  

The price of Oil closed up for the week at $95, but the “wet price” of deliverable Oil is really about $150-$200…  I’m still wondering how much longer the difference between the paper price and the “wet price” can continue on…. 

And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield blip upward on Friday and ended the week with 4.32% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… in a twist of things going on… The dollar got sold overnight….What the heck is going on here? Oh well, it Is what it is. The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,193…  The price of Oil remained trading with a $95 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw a slip of 1 BP to start our day/ week with a 4.31% yield…

Gold starts the day down $1 buck… Silver starts up 34-cents… So, the Gold down mark is easily turned around, and should as the day goes on , if… if the dollar continues to weaken from the overnight markets… 

Well… recall about 10 days ago, when I told you that the Consumer Sentiment had a preliminary report for April that showed a deep dive in the Sentiment? Well, the final report finally hit the wires on Friday and came in a bit better and Yahoo Finance.com had this to say about the report: “The University of Michigan’s final April sentiment index dropped to 49.8 this month from 53.3 in March. While that was slightly improved from the preliminary reading, it remained the lowest in data back to 1978.”

Chuck again.. My friend, Dennis Miller, sent me an email on Friday that referenced an article about DXY, and how the writer of the article said that it was not good and needed to be repaired…  Well, as you might recall, that’s what I told you a few years ago when I started using the BBDXY as my index to see how the dollar was doing…   

The BBDXY is a group of countries that are the best trading partners of the U.S.  and unlike the DXY, THE BBDXY isn’t dominated by the euro, nor does it exclude countries like China and Mexico as the DXY does… 

Ok… I keep thinking that the SPTs are fading away…  But no such luck, eh? Well, they are fading but not away right now… The shorts in Silver at 100 days of production held by the SPTs… And the shorts in Gold are down to 52 days of production… For longtime readers they might recall me telling them that at one time the number 180 for Silver and over 80 for Gold…  So, they are fading away… Just not fast enough for me!

There’s not much to talk about regarding the currencies, and they are being moved by the dollar and the goings on in the Gulf…  Like I’ve said on numerous occasions: War and Strait Closed= dollar strength, and Peace and Strait Open= dollar weakness, Gold strength….   

And we’ve got War and Strait Closed at this moment, and so we know that the dollar will be stronger… So, don’t abandon your portfolio diversification or you Gold Holdings… This will eventually come to an end (the war) and when it does, the dollar will return to the underly weak trend, and Gold will climb higher once again… 

But, the longer it goes on, and it will go on longer than most think, the more you’ll have to batten down the hatches… 

We’ve also got a FOMC Meeting this week on Wednesday…  Yes, the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel will meet and discuss interest rates, which everyone and their brother think that they will remain at current levels… I saw where people are swallowing the line about how Gold will weaken if interest rates dont’ get lowered… Yep, they are swallowing that hook, line and sinker…   

What’s a FOMC going to do? They are backed into a corner, and there’s no way out of this mess for them… So, they’ll just remain Steady Eddie with rates and see where everything falls out or into…  There are just too many “unknowns” out there with the war and everything else that banks and hedge funds, etal, are in a “risk off” mentality, and I doubt anything is going to move the needle here until… Oh, you almost had me reveal what I think is going to move the needle… But, I really don’t have an answer for you… end the war, bring everyone home and start to rebuild your arsenal… That’s the only thing I can think of that would move the needle… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard ended the last week on empty, and starts this week on empty… Tomorrow, we’ll actually see some real economic data so, get ready for The Feb Case/Shiller Home price index and the March Durable Goods Orders come on Wednesday… I’ll be back on Wednesday with a brand-new Pfennig! 

To Recap… The dollar ended the week on a down note, but just by a smidgen. Gold ended the week up $17 and Silver up 25-centw… The war continues on, so Chuck thinks that we had better batten down the hatches and wait for the Good Witch Glinda to tell us that it’s all clear… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, with every writing about the war and all the other stuff involved with it, there aren’t many FWIW articles out there… I did fine this one on Zerohedge.com  it’s about the U.S. Defaults in the past and how they will repeat themselves now, and it can be found here: 39 Going On 40 (Trillion) | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: ” A little over two weeks ago, on April 7th, the U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion. Since then, another $150 billion has already been added to the ledger. While major news outlets missed the milestone, every trillion is worthy of mention.

America is now $39,000,000,000,000 in debt—yes, $39 trillion. It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months… Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget.

Almost three years ago, I wrote about the U.S. debt crossing the $32 trillion and $33 trillion marks. If there’s one economic projection to stand by, it’s this: within the next several months, the $40 trillion debt level will be breached.

Looking back at the last 200 years, or even the last three, it becomes clear that debt growth is not linear; the curve is moving up exponentially.

While the future is always uncertain, the trajectory is unmistakable.

One reason stands above the rest: the interest on the debt itself.

For context, net interest outlays were equivalent to 22.1% of total revenues through Q1 of FY 2026. Even if the national debt were frozen at $39 trillion today, the interest payments alone would be staggering. With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering between 4% and 4.5% at the time of writing, and annual interest surpassing $1 trillion, solvency should be a real concern.

Naturally, one might argue that with a Federal Reserve, solvency is not a concern. However, that’s the crux of the matter. America technically won’t become insolvent thanks to the Fed’s ability to create money (literally) out of thin air, and so, the final outcome is certain. Expanding debt and the accompanying expansion of the money supply are features of the system. History shows that monetary inflation, currency debasement, and the eventual crack-up boom are the recurring final outcomes.”

Chuck Again… I thank James Turk for his thoughts on our debt situation… 

Market Prices 4/27/2026: American Style: A$ .7157, kiwi .5913, C$ .7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3567, Swiss $1.2753, European Style: rand 16.4747, krone 9.2733, SEK 9.1875, forint 309.16, zloty 3.6135, koruna 20.7262, RUB 74.95, yen 159.15, sing 1.2730, HKD 7.8371, INR 94.19, China 6.8218, peso 17.35, BRL 4.9813, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.82, Oil $95.37, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $75.95, Platinum $2,035.00, Palladium $1,504.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,795

That’s it for today… I have to say that this past weekend was the best weather we’ve had in Month of Sundays! It was spectacular!  My beloved Cardinals got swept a home last weekend… The games were close and could have been a sweep by the home team! But that was not to be… baseball… Now they travel to Pittsburgh for our first look at the Pirates… Well, I’m in the hands of the doctors at the hospital the next two days…. I sure hope they treat me nicely!  HA!  The Rolling Stones take us to the finish line today with their song: Dead Flowers…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Wednesday
• Kevin Warsh shows off his media training….

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Our Chamber of Commerce Day yesterday saw the whole watering hole gang here to watch the game with me outside… The Cardinals lost the game, but did come home from a road trip with a 4-2 record… So, there was a silver lining there…. We’re expecting another Chamber of Commerce Day here before the rain comes on Friday… But there is no game for me to watch today, so I’ll spend the day outside reading…. The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: On The Border…

Well, the war drags on, which means the dollar got bought yesterday… Not much, but enough to move the needle on the BBDXY…  Again, though, the dollar is a very tight trading range right now with no real conviction to sell or buy it… Just too many “unknowns”… And I taught you all many years ago that the markets don’t like “unknowns”…. 

Gold couldn’t find terra firma as it started out the day up $38, but that fizzled out soon after the SPTs showed up to short the heck out of the metal…. Gold ended the day down $19 to close at $4,740… But in a strange twist of trading, Silver rallied… Yes, I said that right, Silver did rally $1.54 to close the day at $77.83

The price of Oil continues to ratchet higher again, after last week’s misplaced euphoria that the war would be over soon, the price of Oil ended the day trading with a $93 handle… 

And the 10-year’s yield rose to end the day at 4.31%

In the overnight markets last night… More of the same overnight, folks… How low can you go? Do the limbo!  I recall as kids, me and my sisters would play that game… I was never really good at it… My oldest sister, Brenda, was very good at bending her body to get under the limbo pole… 

The dollar remained trading 1,197 in the BBDXY, but the euro did slip under the 1.17 figure overnight… so, that means that the dollar did see some buying, but it just wasn’t shown in the BBDXY… 

Gold starts our day today down $6… So, that’s a figure that can easily be turned around, so… come on you physical buyers get going!  Silver starts the day down $1.68… So much for Silver’s rally yesterday, that has been wiped out to start our day… Copper is a metal that I’ve touched on from time to time…

Did you know that sulfuric acid is used to get Copper out of the ground and separate it from Silver?  And guess what’s not getting to the Copper miners? You guessed it… Sulfuric Acid… shipped from the Middle East…  So, that means that supply of Copper is going to suffer and a byproduct of this lack of Copper mining will be to damage the Silver production, which has already been in negative production for years….  Uh-Oh!  

This could be the harbinger of a Silver rally, folks… I’m just saying… 

Well, unless you are living under a rock, you know that the new candidate for Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Kevin Warsh is being drilled by Congress… Hey! He’s the President’s nominee, how else did anyone think he would be treated?   But Mr. Warsh out his best media training to work, by redirecting the question, and dissing the current Chairman, Powell, for not being on top of inflation when the time came…. 

I remember when I went through media training and was taught how to redirect the subject that you didn’t feel like talking about… So, I caught it, bang! 

There will be no Pfennig on Monday and Tuesday next week… So, this is the last one until next Wednesday…. I have scans due on Monday morning, at the hospital, and another scope on Tuesday morning… I know, I know I shouldn’t have backed them up together like this, but… you take what’s given to you and you don’t ask questions….  At least that’s my mantra on these appointments!

I had a dear reader send me a note and suggested that I use a doppelganger of myself, and let AI write the Pfennig on days when I’m not available…  Good idea, but I’m afraid I’ll have pass for now… I’m not a fan of AI right now… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard was barren yesterday, but come back today with the usual Thursday data set, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  National ISM (manufacturing ) report… So, in my mind… no biggie…

To recap…  The war drags on, and the “unknowns” in the markets are causing very tight ranges for the dollar right now… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel nominee to be the new Chair, shows off his media training… But not to worry, Chuck saw it immediately! 

For What It’s Worth… This is a bit different today, as I have an article that friend, Rich Checkan, put together for his firm: Asset Strategies, and it tells of how Gold is now at cheaper prices and can be found here: “Gold Prices Down Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold has pulled back again early this week, as the dollar and oil prices climbed when the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel and Iran threatened to retaliate.

The news strengthened the dollar hiking it to a one-week high, pressuring gold prices, as the yellow metal became more expensive for holders of other currencies. It also renewed concerns about persistent inflation and speculation that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged for some time.

Gold rose by 64% last year alone. In 2026, gold continued to rally until the Iran war started in late February, and spent March in a backslide of 11%. Prices rallied nearly 2% last week on an apparent easing of tensions, but Sunday’s escalation reversed the rebound.

The unstable ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire today, but this military conflict has been anything but predictable.

That makes now the right time to take advantage of another drop in spot prices.

While gold is below all-time highs again for now, the rapidly accelerating climb in spot prices over the past few years have made it a challenge for investors to get in on the ground floor, especially those who are just beginning to accumulate gold and build a diverse portfolio.

Many feared that the rally that drove gold and silver sky-high starting at the end of last year would mean they would be priced out of the market.

But this correctional period is once more offering an opportunity to buy gold at lower spot prices.”

Chuck Again…  yes, this is the buying opportunity at cheaper prices that all procrastinators has put off…  So, what are you waiting for?

Market Prices 4/23/2026: American Style: A$ .7150, kiwi .5887, C$ .7316, euro 1.1691, sterling 1.3506, Swiss $1.2746, European Style: rand 16.5068, krone 9.3318, SEK 9.2243, forint 312.25, zloty 3.6306, koruna 20.2297,  RUB 75.08, yen 159.56, sing 1.2758, HKD 7.8333, INR 94.11, China 6.8333, peso 17.36, BRL 4.9655, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 98.67, Oil $93.29, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $76.14, Platinum $2,036.00, Palladium $1,512.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,734

That’s it for today… After today, 3 of the next 6 days have rain in the forecast… UGH! I realize it’s still April, and April Showers bring May Flowers… And what do May Flowers bring?   ….. Pilgrims! HA! I think I’ve told that one before, but it’s been awhile, so….  The baseball season has started a little discombobulated…  As the two faves in the NL East have the worst records! And all the teams in the NL Central are above .500… It’s a good thing the season is 162 games, it’s not too late to get things right…. Sam & Dave take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Soul Man (We used to play this song in my first band, The Soul Wonders Revue) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Chuck goes back in time to a golden age… Yeah right!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Great news yesterday from my blood test… I’m not anemic any longer (I could have told her that, but like I said, she needed confirmation!) I don’t want to have to go down that path again for sure! The doc was really surprised when I reacted to the medicine, she subscribed to so fast… Before Cancer interrupted my life, I was always a fast healer…  I have a story about my football life that I’ll tell one day, not today though, I’ve gone on too long here…  The Little River Band greets me this morning with their song: Happy Anniversary…

Speaking of an Anniversary, in June two months away my beautiful bride and I will be observing our 50^th Anniversary! It’s difficult to remember back to our early days together… 

OK, no more schmoozing…  I’ve got words to say that aren’t going to make anyone happy except all those that procrastinated and never bought Gold and thought the ship had sailed on them already…

All this clamoring for “regime Change here in the U.S.” is getting on my nerves… And giving me a rash! Yes, the POTUS has fallen back in his ratings, but I doubt he could withstand all the bad stuff being said about the War and the Strait of Hormuz….  So, with that said, I’ll just say that Peace Negotiations are falling apart, and that means exactly what I described weeks ago, a longer war than anyone was thinking… 

The dollar got bought again yesterday, Peace = weak dollar, War= strong dollar… It should be the opposite, but it’s not… Don’t ask me why… 

And Gold & Silver got sold short, or just plain sold by hedge funds and pension funds and it carried over to Tuesday.. Gold ended up down $100 and Silver down $3.56… It was an ugly day for the metals, but last night they were coming back… 

The price of Oil remained in the $89 handle, and the 10-year finally got off its duff and saw its yield rise to 4.29%…. 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar’s rally came to a halt as the BBDXY lost 2 index points last night… This was the day that the bombs were to begin, but that’s not happening, in fact there’s nothing going on right now as far as Peace Negotiations… 

Gold is up $38 in the early trading today and tries to recoup its losses from yesterday.. It still has a way to go, but at least Gold found the right road to be on…. Silver is also attempting to put yesterday behind it, with Silver up $1.43 in the early trading… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $90 handle this morning… And the 10-year Treasury took a step backward with its yield overnight, and therefore starts today trading with a 4.28% yield…

Well, the folks at Kitcom.com as I’ve told you don’t believe in the manipulations of Gold & Silver and posted that the uptick in the dollar and bond yield were the complete cause of the metals sell off… I beg to differ with them… For if it was just that little tick up in the dollar and yields in bonds, the price of Gold wouldn’t have gone down $100 or Silver down $3.56… there was short selling involved, whether the folks at Kitcom.com believe it not!

The overnight markets have become quite big… I recall a time when if you saw any movement from the previous night that it for sure came from Japan… But these days, I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quarter tones (Browne)…  Sorry about that, but every time I type out “these days” that song pops into my head… 

You know… That in the old days, of when I was a foreign bond & Currency trader, I used to look at spread differences between the U.S. bond market and the foreign markets… I could always mark out Japan, but yields from the U.K, Germany, Spain, Italy etc. would come into play and whomever had the higher yield would garner my attention to which foreign bonds we needed to buy and sell to customers… 

Well, yesterday on MarketWatch.com they had the bond yields listed and the only ones I could find with 10-year yields above the U.S. was the U.K. At 5.14% and Australia at 4.9%, every other country had 10-year yields below the U.S.’s 4.25%…  And Reuters.com reported last night that British inflation rose to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, according to data showing the first impact on prices from the Iran war which the ‌Bank of England fears could lead to a return of the country’s persistently high inflation problem. And that would hurt their bonds… So… of the two greater than the U.S’s yield I would go with Australia’s 10-year bond… 

There are other factors that come into bond buying folks, like what is the forecast for Interest rates? How much debt is the country trying to sell, etc. Inflation in the country was also a key…  But yield was the most important to me… 

Ok, so much for that journey through foreign bond buying, eh? I knew you would enjoy living in my past life! HA! 

And once again, a deadline came and went… The POTUS decided that he would extend the Truce with Iran that was supposed to have ended today… Ok, good… that means that the two parties are negotiating… Right? Uh, well, no, VP Vance still hasn’t left for Pakistan for Negotiations… So, like I said yesterday, let’s revisit all this in two weeks and see where we stand… But for now, the markets are still swallowing everything the POTUS says, hook, line and sinker!

Like I said yesterday, right now the markets have this scenario: Peace = dollar weakness, Gold up… War= dollar strength, Gold down…  I also said yesterday that this in opposites of the way I think they should be traded, but it is what it is…. 

The world all awaits to see what comes next, and they aren’t taking any direction in their markets until they have an answer…  So, as friend, Dave Gonigam, said in his letter, 5-Bullets, yesterday: “the markets are in limbo”…   And I agree 100%! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the March Retail Sales, and they were strong… What else did anyone expect, given that there were fears then that the grocery stores would have empty shelves, and in addition to that it WAS EASTER SEASON!  Lots of candy buying was on the menu… I read this: Easter spending is expected to hit a record $24.9 billion this year, with the average family budgeting nearly $200…  Now if that didn’t boost Retail Sales I’m a monkey’s uncle! 

And the U.S. Data Cupboard is bare today… none, nada, zilch reports are scheduled… That’s a rarity, usually there’s at least some  3rd tier report would be on the docket, but not today!

To recap… The dollar got bought yesterday but then consequently sold overnight… We’re stuck in “limbo” and right now, there’s no way out… the price of Oil continues to recover… And Gold & Silver got sold by the SPTs yesterday and attempt to recover their losses yesterday, with today’ price action… Chuck takes us back in time to when he was a foreign bond and Currency trader… (Man, that was a long time ago!)

For What It’s Worth…  Have you heard about Gold backed credit/ debit cards? Well, if you haven’t now you have and it the article can be found here: A ‘new gold rush’: Why gold-backed debit cards are taking off

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold’s surge to record highs isn’t just boosting investor portfolios. It is helping to turn the metal into a form of everyday money you can use to pay for everyday goods and services.

Technology now allows consumers to spend gold with a debit card, converting small amounts into cash at the point of purchase. The concept isn’t new, but as inflation continues to bite and the value of gold rockets, state legislatures and a growing group of fintech platforms are increasingly throwing their weight behind it.

The pitch is simple: while rising prices erode the value of traditional money, gold, which has long been viewed as a hedge against inflation, keeps up and even grows in worth.

But not everyone is convinced that gold-backed payment systems are a good thing. Critics question who benefits and warn that fees, taxes and other frictions could limit their appeal.

Instead of holding a balance in dollars, users hold physical gold — typically stored in secure vaults. When they make a purchase, a small portion of that gold is instantly sold and converted into currency to complete the transaction.

The pitch is simple: while rising prices erode the value of traditional money, gold, which has long been viewed as a hedge against inflation, keeps up and even grows in worth.

But not everyone is convinced that gold-backed payment systems are a good thing. Critics question who benefits and warn that fees, taxes and other frictions could limit their appeal.”

Chuck Again… Well, in my humble opinion this answers the question all the naysayers of Gold have had for years… They used to say, “All Gold does is sit there”…  Well, they can’t say that any longer, now can they? Actually, I would argue with them and say, “yeah it does nothing but protect you from dollar weakness, and inflation”….   

Market Prices 4/22/2026: American Style: A$ .7161, kiwi .5911, C$ .7323, euro 1.1747, sterling 1.3515, Swiss $1.2800, European Style: rand 16.4381, krone 9.2783, SEK 9.1679, forint 309.49, zloty 3.6136, koruna 20.7156, RUB 74.48, yen 159.24, sing 1.2732, HKD 7.8320, INR 93.80, China 6.8240, peso 17.30, BRL 4.9658, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 98.35, Oil $90.26, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $78.22, Platinum $2,086.00, Palladium $1,599.00, Copper $6.11, and Gold… $4,759

That’s it for today… Sorry for the long intro today, I really just had to get that off my chest! I’m not a bass drum banger for the POTUS, I’m just saying that (all the bashing) it’s getting on my nerves!  My beloved Cardinals got back on the winning track last night in Miami… A day game today. I sat outside last night watching the game with my good friend Mike…. I think that today will be another Chamber of Commerce Day here, so being outside will be my choice!  Holt Unlimited takes us to the finish line today with their instrumental song: Soulful Strut… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• metals and currencies see selling as the questions keep coming about the war…
• Good bye Tariffs’ funds….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! So, last Thursday I said that I was in need of a break, and then on Friday morning, I woke up at 5:30 am and said, ” so much for sleeping in!”  I guess it was my body telling me I had slept too long… UGH!  Or it could have been the noise above on the first floor…  Anyway, I made up for it on Saturday and Sunday… Yesterday’s trip to the PCP was a non-event… I like the doctor but, I don’t see his value in my health program… REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their song: Golden Country

Well, the markets closed on Friday afternoon, with the dollar still drifting between 1,192 and 1,193… The dollar traders aren’t getting caught up in the rhetoric coming from the White House about the war being over soon… But, they aren’t so sure about selling the dollar more because when they have, the PPT jumps in and defends the dollar to keep if from falling off the cliff… Thus doing “Cliff Maintenance”… 

Gold & Silver pushed aside the STP’s for a day, and both climbed above their most recent roadblocks of $4.800 for Gold, and 80-cents for Silver… Gold closed the week at $4,831 and Silver closed the week at 80.95-cents… Good for them, finally moving past those roadblocks that the SPTs had set up for them. 

The Oil traders are really believing everything they’re hearing out of D.C. And the thought that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a truce of 10 days, and that the Strait of Hormuz if open again, and have pushed down the price of Oil to end the week at $83.85…. I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown that these market moving events are going to hold… 

And with the price of Oil, I just don’t get what’s going on here with the “delivered price” and the paper Oil price that’s published…. I read a report that said that Singapore and Sri Lanka just paid over $200 per barrel of Oil, but the paper price of Oil is $83…  Is this “fixing of the Oil price” for the stock jockeys? I have thoughts on this, but I’ll move on for now… 

To add to this discussion, my friend, Dave Gonigam of The 5 Bullets newsletter had this yesterday : ” Take it from someone much closer to the situation — Saudi Arabian finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan.

In a remark completely overlooked by corporate media, Al-Jadaan spoke up during a conference late last week: “You see the screen, $90 a barrel — good luck if you get an oil barrel for $90. It’s $120, $130, $140, $150, $160 even through the last few weeks.”

And those are just “normal” purchases of physical barrels in Europe and Asia. There are extremes like $286 a barrel in Sri Lanka — the island nation off the coast of India.

How long can this disconnect go on?”    

Chuck again… See? I don’t make this stuff up…. I’m just saying….

And the 10-year Treasury also saw the same kind of reaction as the Oil traders, and saw it’s yield drop 5 BPS to end the week at 4.25%

In the markets yesterday…. there was little to cheer about… The Peace negotiations didn’t get off the ground (and neither did VP Vance) The dollar remained in the its tight range, Oil recovered a bit from all the euphoria that was going on last week, and Gold fought for every inch of ground it could, while Silver was brought back to below 80-cents…

Gold closed at $4,821, down $10 from Friday, and Silver closed at $79.86, down $1.39 from Friday’s close… 

In the overnight markets last night… The night had a couple of developments with the Peace Negotiations, not to drag them out now, but this is heading the wrong way, in my humble opinion.. With  that Uncertainty in the markets, the dollar got bought a bit, with the BBDXY still in the range but up 2 index points to 1,193… Gold & Silver are getting sold to start our day today, Gold is down $31, and Silver is down 51-cents right now… 

The price of Oil continues its recovery and starts today trading at $89… The paper price that is…. The deliverable price is much higher as I explained above… And the 10-year Treasury seems to be stuck in the mud with a 4.25% yield…. 

I have to end this early this morning, because the oncologist called yesterday, and is sending me for blood work this morning… No alarms here, she just wants to see if what they have done for my anemia is working… (I told her it was, but she needs actual confirmation of that!)

My visit for my annual wellness (that term is used loosely in my case) visit, went well, He said when concluded, “on paper you are a real medical mess, but as I see you here, you present a different story” I told him that “It’s my optimism for life, family, friends, and I won’t forget my dear readers”… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and they had fallen to a 207,000 number the lowest it’s been in a time… I would say that there’s a new way Businesses are going with hiring these days… It’s called The no hire, no fire’ economy … I’m just saying…

My economic calendar showed that Industrial Production gained .5% in March, but Capacity Utilization dropped from 76.1 to 75.7% So, businesses were leery of new equipment and expansion while there was a war going on… In other news it was reported that the White House had requested large companies, like Ford, and GM to help manufacturing arms, and the U.S.’s supply had been greatly depleted in the initial onslaught of Iran….  

To me that sounds like the White House is saying one thing to the public about how the war will end soon, and on the other hand they are preparing for more bombing…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar is drifting back and forth between 1,191 and 1,194 these days, as traders don’t want to take a stand on which direction they want to go… I don’t blame them right now, as who knows what’s going to happen next with this war…. 

Well, I don’t know if you read my good friend, Dennis Miller’s weekly letter, but in it, he interviews me about Treasury issuance… So, if you have this next piece I found on MarketWatch.com will play well with his letter in the sand box. Here’s MarketWatch.com “Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday urged U.S. policymakers to prepare an emergency plan in case demand for Treasurys breaks down — warning that a crisis in the government bond market could trigger severe consequences across the economy.

“We need an emergency break-the-glass plan which is targeted and short term on the shelf, so it’s ready to go when we hit the wall,” Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week on Thursday.

Paulson’s warning comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the waning appeal of U.S. Treasury debt. Persistent deficits, heavy debt issuance and inflation worries have weighed on longer-term government bonds recently.”

Chuck Again… Yes, Treasury issuance is become quite the controversial subject in the world… Because yields are so low, issuance is too large, and there’s no end in sight for our debt creation….  

For What it’s Worth… I might have rushed the gun with my statement about the Beige Book last week, and this article from MarketWatch tells the real story of what the Beige Book had to tell us and can be found here: U.S. businesses hit the brakes on hiring and spending as Iran war dims optimism over economy, Fed report finds – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. businesses are pulling back from making major decisions due to uncertainty stemming from the war with Iran, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on regional economies, known as the “beige book.”

“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the report said.

The Fed also found that economic activity had deteriorated, describing it as “modest.” The previous report, which covered the month of February, described economic activity as “moderate.”

Regarding business expectations, the nascent optimism found by the previous report was downgraded to “varied amid widespread uncertainty.”

The latest survey, which covers conditions through the first week of April, was carried out to help Fed officials gain an understanding of local conditions ahead of their meeting at the end of the month to set interest rates.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said there was a “stagflation-like tone” to the report, referring to a scenario of rising inflation along with slowing growth.

“The conflict is making businesses more cautious. If this uncertainty persists, delayed investment and hiring will translate into a larger drag on growth,” said Marco Casiraghi, senior economist at Evercore ISI.”

Chuck Again… Well, the POTUS said last weekend that the “war could end soon”… And once again the markets swallowed the news hook, line and sinker… We’ll see in a week or two if this was warranted

And before I head to the Big Finish, I wanted to mention that my fears of a rebate of tariffs taken is going to take place… here’s the BBC with the skinny: “The Trump administration has begun processing refunds for billions of dollars in tariffs that the US Supreme Court struck down in February.

In what is to be the biggest repayment programme in history, companies can apply online for money they were charged under the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs – plus interest – to be returned.

The US Court of International Trade in March ordered customs officials to refund the more than $160bn (£121bn) the government had collected, putting roughly 330,000 importers in a position to potentially win back some money.

(But some individual consumers, who were hit by the tariffs indirectly through higher prices, are not expected to be compensated.)”

Market Prices 4/21/2026: American Style: A$ .7163, kiwi .5910, C$ .7322, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3517, Swiss $1.2830, European Style: rand 16.3701, krone 9.3173, SEK 9.1356, forint 307.80, zloty 3.5958, koruna 20.6473, RUB 74.94, yen 159.12, sing 1.2715, HKD 7.8307, INR 93.19, China 6.8161, peso 17.31, BRL 4.9658, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.21, Oil $89.29, 10-year 4.25%, Silver $79.34, Platinum $2,093.00, Palladium $1,583.00, Copper $6.11, and Gold… $4,751

That’s it for today… Yesterday while I was at the PCP’s office, I remembered it was my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter’s Birthday! After a month of being the same age as Frank, he’s moved ahead once again! Happy Birthday, Frank! I’ve taken to retirement differently than Frank did… Frank, as you know, started EverBank, and now has started Battle Bank… He’s a go-getter for sure! I spend my days sitting outside reading when I’m not going to a doctor! My beloved Cardinals’ 5-games win streak came to an end last night in Miami… UGH! 

Our Blues ended their regular season on Thursday last week, and didn’t make the playoffs once again… UGH!  Dionne Warwick takes us to the finish line today (I love her voice) with her song: Walk On By… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies rally but metals see selling on Wednesday
• Chuck gets on his Soapbox… You are Warned!

Good Day… And a Tum Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Another nice late game victory for my beloved Cardinals yesterday… Yes, it was a day game at Busch, but I’m still in no condition to get caught up with crowds… So, I skipped it and watched it on tv… It was a rainy day off and on yesterday, so I couldn’t go outside and read, UGH! You now, or maybe you don’t, but after years of taking chemo, my skin is as thin as Twiggy… And on Tuesday, I tripped in the kitchen and proceeded to tear the skin off my arm in two large places… OUCH! So, the wrap the nurse put on it is quite the contraption… The Doors greet me this morning with their song: L.A. Woman… I remember a night in Boca Raton years ago at the Garage and the band played this song for 20 minutes! 

Well, the dollar’s brief bout of buying in the overnight markets on Tuesday night, was wiped out yesterday, as the dollar got sold in the U.S. session, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,292

I said yesterday that Kitco.com’s description of the Gold loss in the early trading was that it was “profit taking” And I said, I didn’t believe that one iota…  Gold ended down $50 on the day, and that to me doesn’t appear to be “profit taking”… Instead it appears that the SPTs were busy taking Gold below the $4,800 figure… Gold closed the day at $4,791.50

Silver found a way to gain 12-cents on the day and ended the day at $79.71.  The day went two different directions yesterday, but don’t worry, be happy (Marley) Gold will pick up the pieces today for sure! Well, don’t bet the farm on that, it’s just my opinion, and I could be wrong!

The price of Oil dipped another buck yesterday and ended the day at $91.44… The 10-year Treasury added another bp to end the day at 4.28%… 

In the overnight markets… Just as Tuesday night, last night the dollar saw a bit of buying, and the BBXY Gained 1 index point… No big deal! I don’t get what the overnight guys are thinking, but then it could just be the PPT doing some cliff maintenance! Hey, I just made up that term “Cliff Maintenance”… I’ll be able to use that a lot!  Down at my Winter Home on the beach, we have a day every winter called “Beach Maintenance”… I used to participate but walking on the beach is very strenuous for me, so Kathy participates! 

Gold saw some buying overnight and in the early trading today, as it climbed back over $4,800 to $4,853, up $62… And Silver is up a measly 19-cents…  But Silver nears $.80-cents this morning again… these are levels ($4,800 and 80-cents)  that keep getting taken out and then brought back down by the SOTs, until they grow tired of this game, and that’s when we’ll see the SPTs go away and to come back another day…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil remained trading with a $91 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury, too remained steady Eddie trading with a 4.28% yield…

Well, it’s time for me to step up on my soapbox… So, if you don’t want to hear me opine, then I suggest you skip ahead… But for those of you who want to sick around… I’ve been thinking about when we went over $39 Trillion in national current debt. It had only been 3.5 months since we toppled $38 Trillion…  So, we as a country, are taking on debt faster and faster as it grows… Yes, the war should help with the dollar debt, as it will invite inflation into the picture and the Gov’t needs inflation to lessen our debt… What was now $ 5 is now $20 and you see where this is going… 

Speaking of the war, that was none of our business to start with, the costs of the war are doing two things… 1. It makes inflation a run-away bus, and 2. It gets the average American’s minds off the goings on in D.C and the awful data that’s getting printed nearly daily…  So, where are we now with the war that we were told a month ago that was “nearly complete”?  And the markets all fell in line with the Gov’t when those words were spoken, and now that it didn’t come to fruition, they are falling in line with his words again about a Peace Accord….  When will we ever learn, when will, we, ever, learn… (wood) and sung by Pete Seeger…. 

OK, I’m back now, to the regular programming…  Ok, did you hear what former Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairperson, Janet Yellen, said about the rate cuts that the POTUS wants? She said that “his push to cut interest rates has echoes of “Banana Republic”…  The POTUS recently said, “We should be paying the lowest interest rate of any country in the World”…  Yellen based her thought about a Banana Republic on the fact that inflation is high, and we don’t know how high it will go with the Iran War going on, and so  (cut rates) is something that a Banana Republic would do…. 

Isn’t Yellen calling out the POTUS something like the kettle calling the pot black? I shake my head at how the former Fed Heads think they were the gift of God to the economy, when they played along with this debacle just as much? 

The euro was back above the 1.18 figure when I checked the currencies before I retired for the night… This is a mirror reflection of the performance of the dollar, as the euro is the offset currency to the dollar…  But there are some other currencies that are on the rally horse, like the Brazilian real… The real is going through a harried election right now, but the is still gaining mostly on the back of the price of Oil… and their higher interest rate is 14.50%! The Euro Wannabes are moving nicely too, with the forint around 309zloty at 3.60 and koruna 20.45… if these three are moving against the dollar, then the dollar is getting well-entrenched in the weak dollar trend… 

I spent a lot of time yesterday on the big-time dive of the Consumer Sentiment report… and last night I came across a report that said Americans placed the sentiment so low was That Americans blame the Iran war for worsening economy… see what I was talking about above, as how the war gets Americans minds on something else besides the awful data prints and the direction of the economy?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Fed’s Beige book… as you know this book is comprised of each Fed District’s viewpoint on the economy in their region… The summary of each report said that: “Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose modestly; consumer spending increased slightly; construction and real estate activity, employment and business spending were flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions tightened modestly. Farm income expectations for 2026 declined some.”

Chuck again… lies, and more lies… So, have we seen the economy improve this month? Not from the data prints, we haven’t… So, what are these folks seeing?

To recap… The Kitco.com version of yesterday’s selling of Gold $50 was “profit taking”… Chuck says balderdash! This was the SPTs way to put Gold back below the $4,800 level…  The dollar’s brief rally at yesterday morning was reversed and the dollar lost 2 index points on Wednesday…  Chuck Opines this morning, if you skipped ahead, you’ll be sooooorrrrryyyyy!

For What It’s Worth…  I found this on Zerohedge.com this morning, and it’s about how the IMF is warning the Treasury about their debt issues (Treasury issuance) and it can be found here: IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To “Sudden Repricing” Due To Soaring Debt, Overreliance On Bills | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the relentless US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with implications for government securities across the globe.

“The increase in the US Treasury security supply is compressing the safety premium that US Treasuries have traditionally commanded — an erosion that pushes up borrowing costs globally,” the Washington-based IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor report.

The US has been selling large volumes of debt because its budget deficit has averaged roughly 6% of gross domestic product over the past three years, an unprecedented shortfall outside of wartime or recession eras. The gap is expected to stay around those levels throughout the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In reality, it will only get wider.

As Bloomberg reports, the IMF pointed to a narrowing gap between the yields of AAA rated corporate bonds and Treasuries as a sign of reduced appeal for US government securities. While spreads have typically been viewed as a gauge of the risk investors estimate for corporate borrowers, the fund is flipping that analysis on its head to view it as a metric of how much extra buyers are willing to pay for Treasuries.

“A narrowing spread implies that the premium investors pay for the safety and liquidity of Treasuries (relative to high-grade corporate debt) is compressing,” the IMF said. The fund showed that AAA corporate spreads have shrunk to roughly 35 basis points from more than 55 basis points at the start of 2019.

Chuck again… Just another way of looking at how the Treasury is going to find a tough row to hoe in the coming months with debt issuance…  It’s coming to a head folks… are you ready?

Market Prices 4/16/2026: American Style: A$ .7167, kiwi .5989, C$ .7282, euro 1.1778, sterling 1.3541, Swiss $1.2761, European Style: rand 16.4004, krone 9.3850, SEK 9.1781, forint 309.50, zloty 3.6008, koruna 20.6760, RUB 76.20, yen 159.07, sing 1.2722, HKD 7.8247, INR 93.18, China 6.8223, peso 17.27, BRL $4.9927, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.21, Oil $91.41, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $79.30, Platinum $2,141.00, Palladium $1,602, Copper $6.13, and Gold… $4,853

That’s it for today and this week… I need a break, so Friday won’t get here fast enough… No Pfennig on Monday folks… I have to see my doctor on Monday morning… UGH!   The Cardinals head to Houston now, and then onto Miami (but I don’t want to go to Miami! HA!)  I just don’t sleep like I used to, and it’s all tied to our family problem we have going on…  Who’da thunk that our family would have problems?  Marty Balin takes us to the finish line with his solo work song: Hearts… Marty Balin was the lead singer in the Jefferson Starship… I really enjoy his work… I hope you have a Tub Tumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Tuesday
• Private Credit is a problem waiting to happen

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I got through yesterday unscathed if you will…. But that will bring bout more tests to see if they can figure out where the blood leak is that caused by Anemia…. Anemia isn’t fun folks… I slept the whole afternoon after returning from the hospital… I just couldn’t stay awake for more than 5 minutes! Steve Winwood greets me this morning with his solo song: Roll With It… 

Pfennig Tradition calls for this: One, two, three, four

One, two (one, two, three, four)

Let me tell you how it will be

There’s one for you, nineteen for me

‘Cause I’m the taxman

Chuck again… yes, it’s Tax Day…  I so dislike this day so much I almost gave up Pfennig Tradition today… 

Well, I never even looked at the market’s prices yesterday until late in the day, when I finally woke up! I did see the euro cross into the 1.18 level in the morning, but it couldn’t hold it even though the dollar was getting sold and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,193… Again, the dollar is teetering toward falling off a cliff, so don’t be surprised if you see a rally in the dollar, as the PPT will want to make sure that the dollar doesn’t fall of a cliff…. 

Gold & Silver fought back yesterday; after getting sold on Monday… Ed Steer tells me that these two metals got sold short immediately after the Sunday night open overseas…  Gold lost $7 on Monday and Silver lost 32-cents on Monday… But yesterday was turnaround Tuesday, and Gold gained             to close the day at $4,841 and Silver gained              to close the day at $79.68… Yesterday, Silver was up over $80 in the morning, and then saw the SPTs wittle it down to close below $80…

I can’t believe my eye! The bond boys and the Oil traders are falling for another ruse by the White House, as they are saying that peace negotiations will resume… Oh, Really? And what do these traders thingk will result of the negotiations?  The 10-year closed yesterday at 4.25%… And Oil saw the rug pulled out from under it as the price ended the day yesterday at $90.98… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought a bit, with the BBDXY gaining 1 index point… I wouldn’t put too much stock in the dollar gain overnight, because every day session brings us more news of this, that, and the other thing that drives the dollar down… So, be patient is what I’m saying… 

Gold & Silver are seeing some selling overnight and in the early trading. Gold is down $31 and Silver is down 70-cents… The folks at Kitco.com say it’s “profit taking”… But I have my doubts… I suspect the SPTs saw yesterday’s performance of the two metals and said, “We must do something about that”… And they have… 

The price of Oil slid another buck overnight and starts today at $92.45. I think the boys are really going to rue the day they marked down Oil so much… I’m just saying… 

The 10-year starts the day at 4.27% yield… The same holds true for the bond boys… But I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

OK, the other day I reported that the Consumer Sentiment had falled to a 40 year low, not seen since 1980…  And left it at that…  What I should have done is give you some reasons for this drop in Sentiment… And then I saw the Rude Awakening newsletter and James Rickads did that for me?  Here’s Jim…

The University of Michigan just reported a consumer confidence reading of just 47.6.

And is any of this surprising?

Consumer prices have been out of control for nearly 6 years now…

Meanwhile every traditional form of income in America is either stagnating or outright FAILING:

Salaries are flatlining and layoffs are on the rise…

Bonds and dividends only move the needle if you have millions to invest in them…

Social Security is just years from either depleting entirely – or, at the very least, seeing a massive cut to allocations…

And our politicians are doing NOTHING to fix any of this. In fact, it’s only getting worse…”

Chuck again…  yes, I spelled out the problems for the dollar a week or so ago, and now Consumers are seeing the problems piling up for them… This is getting really ugly folks…

With the dollar having so many problems and sinking like torpedoed ship, the Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollar/ kiwi  have been on the rally tracks… Last week the A$ climbed above 70-cents and kiwi lagged behind remaining in the 58-cent handle for what seems like a month of Sundays… But yesterday, currency traders are beginning to see the light and the A$ climbed above 71-cents and kiwi above the 59-cents handles… I’m telling you this now, so maybe you’ll listen to me later and that is that these two currencies are tied to commodities, and Commodities are en vogue right now… So, what are you waiting for?

And even if China isn’t involved in the U.S. Israel/ Iran conflict, they are feeling the effects of shipping problems all over the word…  this from Reuters: “China’s export engine slowed sharply in March as war in the Middle East triggered shocks to energy and transportation costs, hurting global demand and exposing the risks in Beijing’s strategy of leaning on manufacturing to sustain growth.”

Our POTUS is scheduled to meet face to face with China’s Xi I think next week or sometime around that frame… The U.S.’s decision to block ships entering the Hormuz heading for Iran… Yesterday, there were reports that 3 ships were allowed passage because their destination wasn’t Iran… And that the U.S. turned away 6 other ships… I can’t imagine that China’s Xi is happy about this and will no doubt lead off the meeting with President Trump when that takes place…

I only bring all that up because it slows shipping and with the recent halt in shipping, we just aren’t seeing trade going on right now, and that will slow everyone’s economy, folks… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the March print of PPI (wholesale inflation) and it didn’t show the big increase in PPI that was expected, so that’s a good thing for future inflation… Not that future inflation is receiving much good news these days… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Import Price index, and more importantly the most recent Fed Beige Book…  

For What It’s Worth…  I’ve talked about the problems with Private Credit before and I came across this article on Zerohedge.com and thought this was a good update on the building problem and it can be found here:  With Private Credit We See The Credit Cycle Hasn’t Been Repealed | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Something cracked in private credit this month, and the men who manage systemic risk for a living are saying so.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon’s just-released 2025 annual shareholder letter warns that concerns about private credit – including “underwriting quality or exposure to software companies that may be negatively affected by AI” – are “a reminder that the credit cycle has not been repealed.” His predecessor Lloyd Blankfein went further on Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast: “I don’t feel the storm, but the horses are starting to whinny in the corral.” JPMorgan has already voted with its balance sheet, marking down software company loans held as collateral by private credit funds and reducing borrowing capacity for those funds, before any actual defaults. “I’m shocked that people are shocked,” said JPMorgan’s Troy Rohrbaugh.

The backdrop is three major liquidity failures in the space of six weeks. Blackstone’s $82 billion BCRED faced record redemption requests of $3.7 billion (7.9% of assets) and had to inject $400 million of its own capital to honor them. BlackRock gated its $26 billion HLEND after receiving withdrawal requests of 9.3% of NAV. Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions in OBDC II and sold $1.4 billion in loans to fund an orderly exit. Blue Owl shares have since fallen roughly 40% year-to-date.

These are not random liquidity events. They are the structural consequence of a capital concentration problem I have been watching build for a decade. In 2025 alone, the ten largest private credit funds captured nearly 46% of all capital raised, the highest concentration in over a decade. That tidal wave of capital forces mega-platforms into ever-larger deals, typically companies with $200 million or more in EBITDA, where they compete head-to-head with broadly syndicated loan syndicates and public high-yield. The result is spread compression, yield erosion, and the complete elimination of the pricing advantages that private credit was supposed to offer.”

Chuck again… This article goes on and on, but I think I gave you the gist of it… Private Credit isn’t a major problem now, but the problem is gaining strength and that’s what scares me… 

Market prices 4/15/2026: American Style: A$.7131, kiwi .5900, C$ .7252, euro 1.1777, sterling 1.3544, Swiss $1.2777, European Style: rand 16.3974, krone 9.4411, SEK 9.2121, forint 309.76, zloty 3.6032, koruna 20.6830, RUB 75.62, yen 158.99, sing 1.2724, HKD 7.8352, INR 93.38, China 6.8210, peso 17.29, BRL 4.9886, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $92.45, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $78.96, Platinum $2,113.00, Palladium $1,619.00, Copper $6.13, and Gold… $4,810

That’s it for today… What a game last night for my beloved Cardinals! After falling behind by 3 runs in the 8^th inning, they found a way to tie in the 9th and win it in the 10th! This young team can frustrate one to no end and then elate the fans the next day! Things are really weird for me right now, but I’ll get through it… As Popeye used say: I yams what I yams… and that’s all that I yam! I still can’t believe that traders are falling for this peace scenario… I’m just saying… Our Blues won last night VS the Penguins… too late for their playoff hopes… 10CC takes us to the finish line today with their song: I’m Not In Love… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

April 14, 2026

No pfennig today folks..
I’m heading to the hospital this morning for a scope… more on that on Wednesday 

sorry about the late notice, but I have to get this done immediately…

Chuck