Category: Uncategorized

• Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday
• Ray Dalio stops by the Pfennig today!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my doctor appt yesterday, my semi-annual well check, was spent mostly talking about my last trip to the hospital and my diagnosis there…  But in the end, the doc said I’m doing well, considering, and that I should keep my slow rehab going…  He was very surprised when he walked into the room, and said, “Nurse, have I got the wrong room? This isn’t Chuck Butler”… He then talked and talked about my weight loss, and at the end of the discussion, he said, “Don’t lose any more, you’ve lost enough” I laughed and said, “but I’m still overweight according to the weight chart folks.” He replied, ” forget them!”… A Very interesting doctor’s visit, indeed!  The Guess Who greets me this morning with their great 60’s song: These Eyes…  

Well, I have two days of catch up to do here this morning, so I’ll start with Monday’s dollar performance, which was not good, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points on the day. This was a reaction to the U.S. losing its last AAA rating from Moody’s…  Yesterday, the dollar continued to get sold, but at a slower pace, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points to end the day at 1,222… I’m surprised at the watered-down dollar selling that’s going on right now, after a week (last) where economic data was awful at best, and again, the U.S. lost its last AAA rating…  

Gold rallied on Monday, but the rally was cooled down by the short paper traders… Here’s what I’m talking about, Gold reached a price that was $30 higher than the closing price of $3,230… Up $29 on the day… You may recall me saying on Monday that we needed to keep an eye out for the short paper traders, for they would be attempting to keep Gold from going to the moon…   OK, $30 more is not “to the moon”, but you get the gist of what I’m saying… 

Silver gained just a plug nickel on Monday… Yes, Silver was higher by 26-cents, until it wasn’t… The short paper traders made sure of that!  Silver gained another 5-cents yesterday, to close at $32.50… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle Monday and Tuesday, so no movement there… And the 10-year Treasury bond, has seen some volatility in the past two days, with Monday seeing some buying, and Tuesday back to selling. In the end yesterday, the 10-year closed trading with a 4.49% yield… Who was doing the buying on Monday? Well, no other than the Fed Heads.. Wait, What? I thought they were “out of the bond buying business?”  Well, apparently not… Here was the article headline on MarketWatch.com: “Why Is the Ded Quietly billions of bonds, in hopes that nobody notices?”

In the article it was opined by someone that what the Fed Heads are doing is simply buying new bonds with the proceeds of maturing bonds that they hold…  But… Bond buying, is bond buying, because if the Fed Heads buy the bonds, then they aren’t for sale for anyone else…  I’m just saying…   

So, all this time, I’ve been accusing the Fed Heads of buying bonds stealth-like, and I was bang on!   

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar got sold down the river… The BBDXY is down 4 index points to start our day today, and the old Dollar Index has fallen below 100…  The euro is back above the 1.13 handle, and the rest of the currencies are following the euro’s lead this morning. I actually was smiling like the Chesshire Cat when recording the currencies for the currency round-up this morning. Gold is up $20 to start the day today, and silver is up 9-cents… Gold has steadily risen without major gains since the ratings announcement last Friday.  The price of Oil remains trading with a $62 handle, and the 10-year Treasury continues to see its yield rise, with the yield on the bond at 4.54% this morning. 

I came across this quote from Ray Dalio, of whom I truly respect his opinion on the markets and economy, and he had this to say about the ratings cur on CNBC.com : “Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio warned Monday that Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating understates the threat to U.S. Treasurys, saying the credit agency isn’t taking into account the risk of the federal government simply printing money to pay its debt.

“You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio said in a post on social media platform X.

“They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting),” the Bridgewater founder said.”

Chuck again…  Yes, I think that this ratings cut goes deeper in hurting the economy and fiscal status of the U.S. than the markets are treating it.  And the next 20-year Treasury auction will be “must-see TV”, as it will be the first auction to take place since the U.S’s credit rating was cut to Aa1…   And even if the auction goes off without a hitch, the water from this rating cut goes deeper than the markets are treating it, in my humble country boy opinion.. 

And since I’ve opined there, I might as well, keep going with what’s on my mind this morning, right?  Longtime readers will recall me saying that Japan is a basket case and that I wouldn’t touch the yen with your ten-foot pole… And here something on Japan that keeps that thought of mine fresh… Last week it was reported that Japan’s GDP for the March quarter contracted by 0.7 per cent as against the median market forecast of 0.2 per cent… And to top that off the Japanese PM came out and said that Japan’s financial condition was in worse shape than Greece’s… WOW!  That’s a very low bar to compare yourself to , and then to say you’re below that low bar?  I rest my case that Japan is a basket case… 

And one more thing that proves what I’m saying to be true, The recent auction of Japanese Gov’t Bonds was a complete mess, with yields rising again… The 40-year Japanese Gov’t bond has gained 100 Basis points since April 30th… Can you believe a Japanese Gov’t Bond yields 3.60%?   Well, I can’t help but think that this is just a harbinger for the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction that’s coming up… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard didn’t have anything but 4 Fed Heads speakers out on circuit, spreading their lies as usual… Today, we get 2 more speakers out spreading lies about how the economy is so resilient..  Oh, did you see the other day, that Leading Indicators were a negative -1.0% This data has printed negativefi for so long now that I just figure it will print negative when I see it listed on the docket…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard today, just w Fed Head speakers, so the dollar gets a break from all the awful data prints that have come into our view in recent days…. 

To recap… Well, the dollar has been getting sold since it was announced last Friday that the U.S. had lost its last AAA Rating… The dollar selling at first was heavy, but since then has backed off and was at a slower pace… Gold had taken the ratings news to heart, and a return of the safe haven buyers have been prevalent… And it’s proof that the Fed Heads are buying bonds again…  Without any flashing signs that they are doing so…   

For What It’s Worth… This article is about what a Deutsche Bank economist is scared of with the dollar going forward, and it can be found here: Dollar ‘Fiscal Frown’ Theory Has Deutsche Bank Warning of Losses – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The dollar is at risk of losses whether the US government lands in a fiscal crisis or a recession, according to George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global head of FX strategy.

“A dollar fiscal frown is the best way to picture things,” Saravelos wrote in a note on Monday, riffing off the so-called “dollar smile” framework Stephen Jen put forward more than two decades ago. Upcoming budget negotiations will determine where the dollar lands on that curve.

“At one extreme on the left is a fiscal stance that is too easy,” Saravelos wrote in a note on Monday. “This leads to a combined drop in US bonds and the dollar — as we are once again witnessing this morning.”

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since November 2023 on Monday, following Moody’s Ratings downgrade. Meanwhile, a dollar gauge fell as much as 0.7%, with the greenback weakening against all of its peers in the Group of 10. If this pattern continues, it signals the market is “losing its appetite to fund America’s deficits and rising financial stability risks,” Saravelos said.”

Chuck Again… And IF the market is losing its appetite to fund our Deficits, that will require the Fed Heads to buy more bonds than they are currently buying…  

Market Prices 5/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6448, kiwi .5943, C$ .7206, euro 1.1343, sterling 1.3443, Swiss $1.2135, European Style: rand 17.8899, krone 10.1587, SEK 9.5780, forint 354.73, zloty 3.7434, koruna 21.9306, RUB 80.00, yen 143.60, sing 1.2890, HKD 7.8301, INR 86.64, China 7.2040, peso 19.24, BRL 5.6680, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 99.58, Oil $62.57, 10-year 4.54%, Silver $ 33.14, Platinum $ 1,055..00, Palladium $1,016.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,310.

That’s it for today, and this week, as there will be no Pfennig tomorrow.. I will be in the infusion center at the hospital, a very depression room I must say, for my monthly infusion… Hey! My cataract surgery finally got scheduled, and it will be Monday June 9th… Kathy leaves for Florida the next day, so I’ll have to get one of my retired friends to take me to the eye doctor the next day…  My beloved Cardinals won Monday night and lost last night, in a hard-fought game that was tied going into the 9th… UGH! The rubber game of the series with the Tigers is a day game today at Busch! I recall when I would not miss any midday games at Busch!   Oh, well, que sera sera….  Little Feat takes us to the finish line today with a live version of their hit song: Dixie Chicken… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and PLEASE Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally in the overnight markets last night
• Saving in the U.S. hits a low…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! WELL, FINALLY!  Finally, we had a beautiful weekend here in the Midwest. That weather came after a tornado ripped through the center/north of St. Louis, there was a ton of damage to properties, and loss of life for 5. Kentucky got the worst of it, so my thoughts were with all the folks that had a horrible tornado experience. My beloved Cardinals will come home after going 7-2 on their most recent road trip… That’s a good record for road games, better than their 1-10 they started the season with on the roqd! OK, so no Pfennig tomorrow and Thrusday, this week. Dr appts, and my next scheduled infusion will be my fun for the week. Chicago greets me this morning with their song: Saturday In The Park… 

Well, the dollar drifted again on Friday last week, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points on the day… The selling was very uneven, and even the announcement by Moody’s rating agency that the U.S.’s credit rating had been reduced from AAA didn’t really set off dollar selling… I’m lost and confused as to what the dollar bears are waiting for… The U.S. just lost its last AAA rating, the economic data last week was awful at best, and to top it off Consumer Sentiment fell again in April… Could it be that the dollar bears are scared to take the dollar down because of the threat of the PPI intervening to stop their selling?  Could be… Only The Shadow Knows… 

Gold didn’t find the data too awful for the U.S. as it was sold again… I say that in jest, because the majority of the selling was by the short paper traders. Gold lost $38 to close the week at $3,201. Silver lost 36-cents on the day to close the week at $32.26…  I have a very interesting piece for you in the FWIW section today from Matthew Piepenburg, regarding Gold, that I think you’ll want to allocate the time to read it… That is, IF you are interested in Gold… I can’t imagine too many readers of this letter that are not long Gold… I’m just saying… 

And I need to get this out here… On Thursday last week I had a fat finger mistake/ typo once again… I reported Silver’s price at $92, when it should have been $32 and change…  You know, I long agon at EverBank, I had to have the letter proofread before it got sent out… But that lead to so many arguments with me and the proofreaders about how I said something, that I was so happy when the Aden Sisters took over the publishing of the Pfennig, because the proofreaders were no more…  But then that leads to typos like last Thursday… Again though, I doubt anyone that read that price went out an tried to sell Silver at $92!!!!!   I’m just saying…   

The price of Oil bumped higher on Friday, to end the week trading with a $62 handle…  And the lowering of the US.s credit rating didn’t faze bond buyers, unless it was the Fed Heads doing the buying of bonds… The 10-year Treasury bond ended the week trading with a 4.48% yield…  The 10-year had gone over 4.50% during the day on Friday, only to lose a few BPS late in the day. 

In the overnight markets last night….The dollar is finding out what life is like without a AAA rating. This morning, as the BBDXY has lost 5 index points to start the day, week, and sits at 1,222 this morning.  I can’t begin to tell you , well, then I guess I can after all! The dollar is long due or some bad treatment, or a trip to the woodshed, if you will. Let’s see how far this dollar selling runs this time before the PPT comes in an wraps a tourniquet around the bleeding… 

Gold has a strong bid this mroning, and is up $40 to start the day/ week this morning… Makes sense doesn’t it that Gold would rally after the U.S. loses its last AAA rating?  Right?  Well, you never know for sure, if the short paper traders will see to it that Gold doesn’t get started going higher, or not… Apparently, not today, and that’s a good thing, but you can be assured that the short paper traders will be in there keeping Gold from going to the moon today.  I’m just saying…

Silver is also on the rally tracks this morning and is up 40-cents to start the day/ week this morning…  The price of Oil has dropped below $62, and starte the week trading with a 61 handle.  we should keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury bond this week, folks, because its yield should be heading much higher, as investors sell the bond, because it no longer has a AAA rating.  The 10-year’s yield starts the week at 4.54%… 

Well, at least someone at the European Central Bank (ECB) agrees with me regarding further ECB rate cuts… This from Yahoo Finance: “The European Central Bank should stop cutting borrowing costs as turmoil in the global economy is fueling price pressures and inflation was at risk of exceeding the bank’s 2% target in the medium term, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Friday.”

Chuck again… Now Schnabel now needs to sway a few more board members to his way of thinking… Because I think the threat of additional rate cuts from the ECB is what’s keeping the euro from taking off to higher ground, while the dollar drifts… 

I found this on www.moneymetals.com regarding consumers saving… “During last month’s tariff war, a big driver of stock-market declines was foreigners selling.

Foreigners have stockpiled over $60 trillion in US assets — much of it in stocks. Which puts America at the mercy of those foreigners whenever foreigners get nervous.

Part of this is terrible trade deals, but the biggest driver is that Americans stopped saving money, instead spending their way into debt slavery.

According to the BEA, Americans currently save just 0.6% of gross national income. In the 90’s it was 7 and a half percent. In the 1960’s it was 12.6%.”

Chuck again… WOW! I knew that saving was going down, but to less than 1 percent? No Wonder Retail Sales in April were very disappointing! I’ll have the skinny on Retail Sales in the U.S. Data Cupboard section of the letter this morning…  This is very eye opening to me, folks… Because this country depends on “consumption”, which means people buying stuff, spending money… That creates taxes, and that’s what the country used to run on… But now Deficits outrun taxes, every year!   This from Bill Bonner last Friday, “The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline figures tells us that the Fed’s will collect $67 Trillion in revenues over the next ten years and the spend $89 Trillion, which would put our national debt at $58 Trillion..” – Bill Bonner

Of course, as longtime readers of this letter, you know that I truly feel that we, as a country, will never reach $58 Trillion debt, as our financial system will have collapsed previously…  Oh, Got Gold?

In the gist of “We live in interesting times”… Remember when I told you that Costco was now selling Gold bars? Well, the good folks at GATA sent me this: “Gold has become such a hot commodity that Costco is apparently limiting how much its members can buy.

The warehouse retailer began selling 24-karat gold bars to its members in 2023, with a limit of two bars per person.”

Chuck again… Oh, the humanity! What will these buyers of Gold do now? HEHEHEHEHEHE

And have you heard about how Singapore wants to start a Gold HUB and bourse in their tiny country?  This is very interesting and the Singaporeans must have already done all the due diligence regarding how to do this, what it entails, and etc. I find this very encouraging for Gold, given that the more you take away from the West in price of Gold the better…  I’m just saying…

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I have this thought from Jerome Powell that appeared on Reuters, “Fed Chair Powell: Cutting discretionary federal spending will not fix US debt problem”…  

Well, it may not fix the problem, but it sure would go a long way to correcting the deficit spending… He thinks the main debt problems lie with Medicare, Medicare, Social Security and the interest paid on the debt… Well, since I doubt anyone in America would go for cutting the fist 3 items, that leaves the interest paid on debt… So, isn’t that a catch 22? 

The U.S Data Cupboard last Thursday was what I called the lollapalooza of data days, and it didn’t disappoint…  April Retail Sales were just .1% growth… That’s what I would call disappointing, right?  Industrial Production was flat as a pancake (Head East)  at 0.0%, and Capacity Utilization fell to 77.7% from 78.8% in April… And the Empire State Manufacturing report was a negative -9.6%, and finally the Philly Fed report (manufacturing) was a negative -4%…  Now, I said above that the U.S. Data was awful last week I wasn’t making that up now was i? 

To recap… The dollar drifted lower on Friday last week, and ended the week at 1,229… Still too high in my opinion, and Chuck wonders what’s keeping the dollar bears from taking the dollar much lower. Gold saw some additional short paper trading on Friday along with Silver, and couldn’t take advantage of the U.S. losing its last AAA rating… Singapore wants to open its version of a Gold HUB…  And boy does Chuck have something for you in the FWIW section below today!

For What It’s Worth… This is special folks.. This is the transcript of a video that Matthew Piepenburg made last week where he talks about how people are comparing 2011 to 2025 for Gold, and he goes through his thoughts as to why that’s not kosher, and it can be found here: Has Gold Peaked in 2025? Why This Isn’t a Repeat of 2011  (spoiler alert, this is long, so grab another cup of Joe, and sit down to read) 

Or, here’s your snippet: “there’s a great deal of discussion understandable discussion of whether we’ve seen pete gold uh authors of the Elliot wave talked about a consolidation chart and that this makes sense that you know gold is reaching a period of all-time highs and will stay there and possibly retrace and he uses the example of 2011 and the technicals there,

I have nothing against technicals. I use them all the time in understanding markets. But when you’re looking at gold or comparing gold in 2025 to gold consolidation in 2011, you have to keep in mind that it’s a very, very different world in 2025 than it was in 2011. It’s also a very, very different gold market.

And the most obvious difference is in 2025, unlike 2011, you didn’t have treasury auctions basically failing. You didn’t have the rise of the BRICS coalition. You didn’t have gold as a tier one asset. You didn’t have central banks tripling their purchasing of gold, physical gold, post weaponization of the U.S. dollar.

You didn’t have this great movement of whales buying physical metals, and you didn’t have this great open distrust for the once sacred cow, the U.S. 10-year treasury. So to use technicals alone or Elliott waves alone isn’t certainly foolish, but it isn’t the entire story.

And it isn’t defending gold or defending your book to say that gold is going to behave differently in 2025 and going forward. than in 2011. And the simple reason is the world is very, very different today. The debt levels are much higher. The distrust for the US dollar is much higher.

The debasement of the dollar is much higher. Quantitative easing, one, two, three, four operation twists and unlimited QE is much more in our rear view mirror and much stronger than it was in 2011. So all of these forces that have been in place since 2011 have completely changed the landscape of just using technicals to understand the

rise in the gold price. The rise in the gold price is entirely correlated to the fall in fiat money purchasing power. And the fall in fiat purchasing money power is directly correlated to unsustainable debt levels that are now being monetized and will be monetized

through more mouse click to base money, whether it’s in dollars, euros, rubles, pesos, etc. So the future of gold is very simple and very different in 2025 because the destruction of paper money is far more acute today than it was in 2011. Again, nothing against using technicals and Elliott waves. They’re very helpful to me and others.

But when you’re looking at a monetary precious metal like gold, and you have to look at the macro backdrop, you have to look at the historical backdrop, you have to look beyond just technicals to understand the rise in the physical gold price today. Again, gold doesn’t move in a straight line,

but it’s in a secular direction north because fiat money is in a secular direction down.”

Chuck Again… Thank you Matthew for that explanation of why the technicals are not working here…  

Market Prices 5/19/2025: American Style: A$

That’s it for today… There won’t be a Pfennig on Tuesday and Thursday this week, due to Dr Appts and an infusion…  I warned you when I returned from the Jupiter Medical Center that I would have lots of doctor appointments coming, and I have! I don’t follow the St. Louis Battlehawks, UGL football team,  but my sons do, and they eked out a 1-point win yesterday. I tried to watch some of it, but its not real football in my eye…. And our STL City soccer team is really bad this year, they’ve gone 10 games without a win! They can’t score goals and when that happens, you lose…   UGH!  I didn’t renew my season tickets to their games for next year, and you can bet they’ll be a much better team!  The band, Missouri takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s songL Movin’ On…  I hopd you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold sees more short paper trading on Wednesday…
• JPMorgan says Gold will go to $6,000

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals failed at their attempt to extend their win streak to 10 games yesterday, but then came back in the 2nd game of the doubleheader to win 14-7… I know, I know that looks like a football game score, but the bats were humming in the 2nd game, and so now, the Cardinals are the first team in the NL to win a series in Philly this year, as they won 2 of 3 games in the city of brotherly love… I’m not a happy camper this morning, and we’ll get to that in a short time below, but first The Moody Blues greets me this morning with their song from their Seventh Sojourn Album  (one of my fave albums!): New Horizons… 

The dollar basically drifted at sea yesterday, but finally at the end of the day, booked a 1 index point gain in the BBDXY… The euro remained below the 1.12 handle as it seems to just biding its time before it goes higher VS the dollar.  And I must have put the Chuck mentions it jinx on the Chinese Renminbi, because it lost a bit of ground to the dollar yesterday… 

Gold, and this is what I’m not happy about, saw the short paper traders again yesterday, pulling their tricks to push Gold down $72, and watching it close at $3,178… And this time Silver got thrown in the mix of short paper trading losing 69-cents to close at $32.31…  You know, other than me, the good folks at GATA, and Ed Steer, no website or letter out there, talks about the metals getting shorted…Instead, they go with the old lines of “profit taking” and “a move from risk assets” and even “Gold has lost its luster”…  Well, I’ll just say that the short paper trading is real, and it should be outlawed… I’m just saying… 

And before I go on here…  These dirty dogs (SPT’s) are making Gold affordable again, and this is the time you’ll want to load up the pickup truck with Gold at the cheaper prices… Before it takes off for higher ground again… Again, I’m just saying…

The price of Oil lost a buck in trading yesterday and ended the day trading with a $62 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield continued to rise yesterday ending the day trading with a 4.54% yield,,,   Bonds are usually slow movers and forward looking… So, what are the bond boys looking at in the future that is scaring the bejeebers out of them? Well, I would think that it has something to do with what I talked about yesterday, regarding the hyped-up euphoria in the stocks that a trade war was averted… For 90-days that is, and then who knows what will become of trade with China? Only the Shadow Knows…  But the Bond boys are taking a flyer on the thought that the POTUS will ratchet up the tariffs once again by then, and then who knows what goes on then?

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted some more and ended up starting today down 2 indez points in the BBDXY.. I don’t think the dollar bugs know what to do with the dollar, as it flew out of the starter’s gate on Monday, and hasn’t seen a good bid since… I think the PPT believes that their work is done, that they have gotten the message across to the dollar bears that if they think they’re going to run the dollar down, they’ll have to deal with the PPT..   

Gold was basically flat to start the day today and then buyers showed up and Gold is up $17 in the early trading…  Silver is getting sold to start the day today, but it’s only down 17-cents at this point, so that could be turned around easily…  I’m of the opinion that these cheaper levels to endter either Gold or Silver or both, are bargain basement prices, a blue light special if you will, and buyers should be taking full advantage of this situation… 

The price of Oil has slipped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $61 handle… And I know I sound like a broken record, but bond yields keep rising, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.51% to start our day today…   

Circling the wagons, and coming back to Gold… I came across this and thought, well I’ll save my though on this for the end, but first this can be found on mining.com “JPMorgan reinforced its bullish case for gold by forecasting prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current term in 2029, an 80% increase on current levels.

This scenario, according to its analysts, could realistically occur with just a small allocation away from U.S. assets under the current macroeconomic climate.

Even with 0.5% of foreign-held U.S. assets reallocated to gold, that would result in 18% annual returns and eventually send prices to $6,000, the bank wrote in a note on Wednesday.”

Chuck again… You know I’ve seen Gold forecasted to reach $6,000, 10,000, 16,000 and so on, and to all of those I just one thing to say… Gold will reach those levels, when it is allowed to by the short paper traders…  end of discussion… 

There was an article on MarketWatch earlier this week that featured, a Fed Head, Williams, saying that “There are early signs consumers are starting to pull back on spending”  Stephanie Pomboy alluded to this in her article that was the FWIW article yesterday, saying that consumer debt was exploding higher and that will reduce the spending that consumers can do other than paying on debt…  

You know what happens to a country that is dependent on consumer spending/ consumption and that spending goes away? The country loses economic growth…  Uh-Oh!  Those darn zero interest times come back to bite us in the rear!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is the lollapalooza of Data days… In other words, there’s a plethora of data prints today… We start the day with April Retail Sales and even with the Easter holiday sales in the early part of April, the BHI indicates to me that this report will be disappointing at best… Moving along, we then will see the color of April PPI (wholesale inflation)… Next up we’ll see April reports for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, both of which won’t be painting any pretty pictures for the economy… Finally we will see the Empire State report on Manufacturing, which should be not very good… 

All-in-all, the economic data today should tell us that the U.S. economy is not as strong as the leaders would tell you it is… 

To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday but finally ended up 1 index point in the BBDXY. So, no relief for the currencies, and Chuck thinks he put the jinx on the Chinese renminbi…  Gold saw more short paper trading yesterday, as the SPT’s got Gold down $72 on the day… This time Silver didn’t escape unscathed, and lost 69-cents… The bond boys are pushing bond yields higher and Chuck goes through that scenario…  And JPMorgan says Gold will be $6,000 by the current POTUS end of term… And it’s a BIG data prints day…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I became sick to my stomach while writing this morning, and it reminded me of the old days when I would get sick to my stomach while writing at my desk… Any way that’s why the letter is a little later this morning… This article comes to us from Bloomberg.com and it’s about how the POTIS wants a cheaper currency (dollar) and you can find it here: Dollar Falls as US-Korea Talks Fuel Bets Trump Favors Weaker Currency (USD) – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The dollar fell in late Asia trading on fresh speculation President Donald Trump favors a weaker greenback and will prod other governments to let their currencies rise in return for trade deals with the US.

The US currency extended an earlier decline on Wednesday after a Bloomberg News report that South Korea and US officials discussed exchange rate policies at a May 5 meeting in Milan and will continue to do so.

The won rose and the Japanese yen also climbed, helping to push the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down for a second day after it rallied on Monday following the announcement of a temporary truce in the US-China trade war. It erased its losses by early afternoon in New York.

Trump and other administration officials have long argued weakness in Asian currencies versus the dollar hand an unfair advantage to the region’s exporters over US rivals, prompting markets to bet foreign governments will need to allow or even encourage strength in their exchange rates if they are to prove successful when trade talks kick off with the US.”

Chuck again…  Well, nothing has changed here, President Trump desired a weaker dollar in his first term along with rate cuts and he didn’t get them… I’m just saying… 

Market Pirces 5/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6407, kiwi .5879, C$ .7165, euro 1.1196, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.1930, European Style: rand 18.1187, krone 10.4134, SEK 9.7366, forint 360.29, zloty 3.7866, koruna 22.2640, RUB 80.56, yen 146.94, sing 1.2986, HKD 7.8076, INR 85.75, China 7.2095, peso 19.36, BRL 5.6379, BBDXY 1.229, Dollar Index 100.82, Oil $61.02, 10-year 4.51%. Silver $92.17, Platinum $ 987.00, Palladium $969.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,192.70

That’s it for today…  I was out for my short distance walk yesterday, and crossed some grass, and almost fell on my face, as I tripped and stumbled on a tree root. It was a good thing my friend/ neighbor, was there to catch me and keep me upright! Whew! That was a close one! Thank you for being there Mr. B!  I actually thought the City STL soccer teams was going to win a game last night, as they were up 2-0 at the half time… But it was not to be, and they tied 2-2 with KC… UGH! This team will probably set the record for the number of ties in a season this year!  I haven’t been to a game this year, as last night was supposed to be my first game of the season, but after realizing that I wouldn’t be able to walk the distances needed to get to the stadium and in the stadium, I gave the tickets to my son, Alex… Donnie Iris takes us to the finish line today with his 80’s song: Ahh Leah!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Tuesday, after the Armageddon on Monday
• The Stupid CPI says that inflation is falling… wait, what?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I’ve had two days of doctors and scans and both days had good news… The Pulmonaty Dr. said my lungs were clear, but they would take some time to heal fully… And the scan showed no new cancer… So, I came home yesterday and treated myself to a cookie! Not just an ordinary cookie, but a cake cookie with icing! Bill Withers & Grover Washington Jr. greet me this morning with their song: Just The Two Of Us…

Well, judging from how the markets reacted to the news that a trade agreement with China was the result of the Trump / Xi meeting… I for one didn’t get the euphoria that the markets did, because this is only a 90-day agreement… So, I have one question for the POTUS… If China was ripping us off so badly, why would we give them 90-days to figure out how to rip us off badly in the future?  Inquiring minds want to know! 

So, on Monday this week, the dollar took a leap of faith that the trade news was in concrete, and the BBDXY gained 13 index points to close at 1,240… And The currencies were like battleships in the Pacific sector of WWII… Sunk!  

But the biggest loser on the trading floor on Monday was Gold, which at one point in the day, was down $104, but rallied at the end of the day to close down $86 at $3,236…  Here’s Ed Steer’s take on the Gold trading on Monday… “Using every dirty and illegal trick they had in their arsenal, the collusive commercial trades of whatever stripe went after gold with a vengeance yesterday in the most illiquid time of the market…helped along by that dollar index short covering rally that they instigated at the London open. – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Silver fared much, much better than Gold and only lost 10-cents on Monday to close at $32.68… I guess the short paper traders figured that they had taken Silver down enough for now, and shifted their attention to Gold…  

Stock jockeys were jumping up and down and dancing in the street on Monday… And the price of Oil rallied to a $62 handle… All was seashells and balloons for the markets, no? Wait! There was on market that didn’t fall for the jargon that everyone else did, and the bond boys saw to it that bond yields were lifted on the day, which indicates selling, and the 10-year’s yield ended the day on Monday at 4.38%… 

So, longtime readers know my affection for the work/ writing of Stephanie Pomboy, of Macro Mavens, and I have her latest interview in the RWIW section today, in which she tell us to not be fooled by the markets reaction to the trade news… You won’t want to have missed that FWIS article today… So, stay tuned… Same Bat time, Same Bat channel…

Yesterday, the calm returned to the market somewhat… The dollar lost 9 index points to close at 1,231… The currencies tried to rally, but were down in a hole so deep you couldn’t really tell that they had rallied much… 

The price of Gold rallied yesterday $24 and closed at $3,250… With the price of Gold so cheap compared to where it was last week, I would think that Gold takes off for the next psychological level from here… There has to be tons of potential buyers that were on the sidelines waiting for a drop in the price of Gold… Silver has outperformed Gold the last two days, gained $31=cents to close at $33…  

The price of Oil gained more and traded yesterday at the end of the day with a $63 handle.  And the 10-year’s yield continued to rise yesterday. Ending the day with a 4.47% yield… Just last week the 10-year’s yield was 4.30%… So, there’s been a ton of selling in the last 5 days folks, most of it since the close on Friday… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar got sold overnight and the BBDXY starts today down 4 index points at 1,227… The dollar selling ties back to the false flag Stupid CPI… The dollar bugs figure that if inflation is under control, then it will make cutting rates a lay-up for the Fed Heads…  And with lower rates comes a weaker dollar…  So, all the dollar buying on Monday is being reversed out…  As it should be… But then that’s just me, right?  

The price of Oil remained trading in the $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year is champing at the bit to move higher this morning… 

The euro got hammered while the dollar was basking in the sun… But as I said a week or so ago, I think the European Union (EU) and their leaders are going to go through a restructure of their political makeup and that should bring about a rally for the euro… So, this hammering that the euro took on Monday, will only give those smart enough to figure this all out much cheaper prices to enter the euro / dollar market. Maybe I was too “pro euro” there, but why not?  And I’m not the only person that thinks the euro is ready to rally some more… Here’s a snippet I found on Bloomberg.com this morning: 

“For more than a decade, the flow of transatlantic capital moved in one direction, powering the ascent of an unstoppable dollar and leaving the euro far behind. Now, the biggest investors say the tide may be turning.

With the euro charting a course for its best year in two decades and asset managers like Amundi SA flipping from bear to bull, Europe’s currency is undergoing a resurgence that’s rarely been seen at any point since its creation in 1999.

Even as uncertainties continue over the US president’s trade war, investors like Amundi’s Andreas Koenig, say the forces set in motion during the turbulent weeks of early April can’t be easily undone. The euro climbed as high as $1.15 last month, its strongest level since late 2021.

“This is a structural change, and it can go a lot longer and a lot further than we imagine at the moment,” Koenig said.”

Chuck again… As Gandalf the White said, “When something is “in motion,” it’s physically moving or changing its position over time. This could be a ball rolling, a car driving, or even the Earth orbiting the sun. “

And in my opinion and that of a few others, the EU is in motion, and it will bring the euro along for the ride… I’m just saying… 

And talk about the dollar rallying on Monday, the Chinese renminbi really was putting on the ritz too… The Chinese have allowed their currency to rally to 7.20 to the dollar… That’s quite a move, eh? 

The newswires are chock-ful-o-trade talk this morning, and therefore I don’t have a lot of Pfennig Pfodder… But before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to talk about Gold a little more… Monday’s price action was so clear to me that it was the short paper traders, using every dirty trick they’ve learned through the year to perform an engineered takedown of Gold… The SPT’s took Tuesday off but are back at it this morning… You have to wonder at what price will they say, “no mas”?  By the way, SPT’s are the Short Paper Traders in case you didn’t figure that one out…    

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Stupid CPI for April … The BLS reported that the consumer inflation rate had gained only .2% in April and that the annual rate of inflation was 2.3%… Wait! What? Do they take us for fools? We all know that they take their basket of goods, and compare the prices month to month, but… Then they add their hedonic adjustments to their calculation and voila! You get a false reading for inflation, just like we get a false reading for Jobs each month after the BLS gets their hands in the cookie jar… 

This rate of inflation supposedly was the lowest rate of inflation since 2021…  That is if you believe that garbage that the BLS prints… And I don’t! But… The markets do… Everybody Plays The Fool… John Williams at www.shadowstats.com , probably has inflation where it really is, which is about 10+%…  

And the Core CPI number was 2.8% annualized… Core CPI removed Food and energy from the calculation, which I find to be stupid…   And the rise in the price of Oil won’t be reflected until the May Stupid CPI prints… 

The Data Cupboard is empty today, with only 3 Fed Heads out on the speaker circuit… 

To recap… Well, the short paper traders used all the tricks in the book starting Sunday night into Monday morning and then throughout Monday to break the back of Gold… They pointed to the news that the U.S. and China had reached a trade agreement… Chuck says, it’s not in concrete, and it’s only for 90-days… But the markets took the bait, hook, line and sinker… The bond boys didn’t take the bait, and bond yields are rising once again… For they see that the Fed Heads will see the Trade Agreement for what it is, and not be tricked into cutting rates…  And Stephanie Pomboy visits us here in the Pfennig this morning! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I advertised this article above and hope it delivers what I read to you! This article is Stephanie Pomboy talking about the euphoria in the markets, and it can be found here: Debt wall, consumer strain, and a Fed ‘trapped by politics’: Stephanie Pomboy warns of market reckoning | Kitco News

Or, here is your snippet: “Markets may be celebrating a temporary U.S.-China trade truce, but macro strategist Stephanie Pomboy warns the party won’t last.

In an interview with Kitco News, Pomboy, founder of MacroMavens, cast doubt on the sustainability of the current market rally, citing structural imbalances across debt, credit, and consumption.

“This is just a 90-day ceasefire,” Pomboy said about the tariff reprieve. “To listen to the financial media, you’d think it was the final agreement – and it ain’t.”

While the Dow surged over 1,000 points on the news, Pomboy noted the more telling signal is the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped to 4.49%. “That’s my number one macro indicator,” she told Kitco News. “Long rates have been stubbornly high – and that’s an issue for an economy as levered as ours.”

Pomboy noted a looming corporate debt wall, with over $1 trillion in bonds set to roll over in 2025. “Corporate debt service has doubled since the Fed started tightening in 2022,” she said. “There’s 1.2 trillion due next year, and another trillion after that.”

Meanwhile, foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is waning. “If China has no reason to buy our debt anymore, we’ve got to come up with another buyer – fast,” she said. “I always come back to the Fed as the only obvious candidate to absorb all this issuance.”

Chuck again… Stephanie goes on to discuss the debt even more in the article, so if you have the time, click the link above and read away! 

Market Prices 5/14/2025: American Style:. A$ 6476, kiwi .5961,  C$ .7177, euro 1.1226, sterling 1.3391, Swiss $1.1960, European Style: rand 18.2232, krone 10.2957, SEK 9.6661, forint 360.45, zloty 3.7807, koruna 22.2070, RUB 80.26, yen 146.00, sing 1.2976, HKD 7.8044, INR 85.24, China 7.2050, peso 19.36, BRL 5.6079, BBDXY 1,227, Dollar Index 100.57, Oil $63.00, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $32.97, platinum $1,005.00, Palladium $981.00, Copper $4.70, and Gold… $3.227.80

That’s it for today… That was a good two days for yours truly, right? Now, I just need to get my lungs back to normal again… Time… Waits for no one and won’t wait for me! (Rolling Stones) My beloved Cardinals got rained out last night in their quest for a 10th consecutive win… They will play two today, which will make 3 doubleheaders in the last 10 days!  I don’t want to say anything else so as not to jinx them! So, I’ll be glued to the TV today for both games… And I’ll work in a short walk between games!  This going slow with my rehab is going to get on my nerves, but it’s what the doctors have stressed to me, so, que sera, sera… The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Everybody Plays The Fool…  A very appropriate title for the markets that got sucked into the trade trap…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• FOMC leaves rates unchanged and makes the dollar bugs happy!
• The Bank of England cuts rates…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I was feeling stronger yesterday, with my stomach problem all subsided, I decided I would go outside and take a walk.. But then I realized it was raining! UGH! You know what they say about the best laid plans of mine and men… Well, today is the last Pfennig until next Wednesday, so soak it in, and keep it safe in case you want to read it again!  The Neon Trees greet me this morning with their song: Everybody Talks… 

Well, the FOMC didn’t surprise anyone, as they left rates unchanged yesterday.  Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, told the audience after the rate decision, that the question about the effects of the tariffs leading to higher inflation or even stagflation, were prevalent and was the main reason for keeping rates unchanged…  To me, his outlook for the U.S. economy wasn’t all seashells and Balloons, but the dollar bugs sure took it that way, and began buying dollars… And buy them by the bunches! The BBDXY gained 4 index points after the rate announcement… And finished the day at 1,2222… 

Gold saw a bit of profit taking after two consecutive days of + $90 gains… But the majority of the selling came from the short paper traders, and they took Gold down by $60 to close at $3,364… Silver didn’t fare any better or escape the short paper trading and it lost 76-cents to ciose at $32.41… I would have bet the farm that the short paper traders would enter the market after the FOMC left rates unchanged….  They would point to rates remining high (for this go-round that is) and the dollar bugs dancing in the street, for their reason to sell short… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle… I have to do my mea culpa here… Yesterday, in the currency roundup, my fat fingers skipped over the “5” and I reported an Oil price of $9… Thanks to my youngest sister who pointed that out to me… UGH!   The 10-year Treasury bond saw some buying, as the bond boys saw the Powell words like I did and the yield on the bond fell to 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Bank of England (BOE) cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points this morning… This was the first time since last August that the BOE had reduced interest rates. The decision was influenced by concerns about the impact of potential US tariffs on UK exports and a generally weak economic outlook. But the debasing of the pound sterling didn’t hurt the currency much, and so we move along to other things this morning…

The dollar got bought yesterday, and that buying continued into the overnight markets with the BBDXY gaining 2 more index points, thus giving the BBDXY a total of 6 index points added since yesterday morning… Shoot Rudy, even the old Dollar Index rallied back to 100… The euro fell below .1.13, again… And the rest of the currencies have lost their perked-up values overnight…  Now, if I were king, I would have decreed that the dollar get sold, because of what Powell said about tariffs and Stagflation raising prices in the future… Looking ahead this is what the economy will face and with Consumers scratching and clawing to make ends met these days, higher prices is not what they need… 

Speaking of tariffs, I read yesterday that they are beginning to bite…  OH Boy~  i also read that the U.S. and China will begin negotiations in Switzerland this weekend… Hmmm… Away from all the naysayers and fist pumpers…  Something struck a chord with me here… Remember when I wrote in the Pfennig about how the Chinese set their parameters on the possibility of negotiations?  And then I read that the POTUS announced that he would lead the negotiations… I don’t think the Chinese will enjoy that part very much…  This meeting is not su much about tariffs but rather de-escalation… I’m sure the tariffs will be discussed though, so check your news station at least once on Sunday to see if anything, even a crumb of news is reported here… 

I won’t be writing on Monday to tell you what transpired… So, that is your homework assignment! HA! 

On a sidebar here, I came across this info that got my mind racing with ideas of how to present it… So, here goes: Weightwatchers is going on a diet!  Wait, What? Yes, Weightwatchers are no different from the masses of companies that have taken too much debt… Here’s the skinny: ” WeightWatchers files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to shed roughly $1B in debt from its balance sheet, expects to emerge from bankruptcy process in 45 days and remain a publicly traded company.”

You see, taking on too much debt is a bad thing, and the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) that held fort here in the U.S. for a long, long time, tempted companies to take on more debt than they knew they shouldn’t have, but they did, because, well it was “so cheap”…  And even WeightWatchers can fall into this debt trap… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and it already printed… (I must be late, late for an important date!)  and the jobless claims for last week were 228,000… Still high in my opinion..  We also saw the 1^st QTR Productivity, and it was a negative 0.8%… I’ve told you previously that this data is useless to me, in that it just records how hard everyone is working… So, judging from the outcome, in the 1^st QTR we, as a country, didn’t work very much… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar began getting bought yesterday, after the rate announcement by the FOMC. They left rates unchanged and made some dreadful comments about the future for the economy, but the markets didn’t listen to that, and just rejoiced having rates remain high (for this period, that is) The Bank of England cut rates for the first time since last August… WeightWatchers are going on a Diet! And Chuck explains what ZIRP did to companies’ balance sheets… 

For What It’s Worth… I spent a lot of time talking about the Trade Deficit yesterday, and then this article came across my laptop and I thought that it did a good job of explaining what’s going on and it can be found here: Tariff-Frontrunning Sparks Record Trade Deficit In March | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in March as companies rushed to import products as the Trump administration readied sweeping tariffs.

The goods and services trade gap grew 14% from the prior month to $140.5 billion (notably higher than the median estimate of a $137.2 billion deficit).

The value of imports jumped 4.4% to a record $419 billion, while exports edged up just 0.2% as firms scrambled to get ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs…

As a reminder, the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Both Goods and Services deficits increased. Imports of consumer goods climbed by the most on record, while inbound shipments of capital equipment and motor vehicles also increased.

Oil & Gas exports topped import by a record in March while imports of Chemicals relative to exports exploded to a record high…

Imports from transshipment hubs surged, likely as some imports from China were diverted to third countries. Imports from Vietnam and Thailand rose well above the 75th percentile of their year-to-date pace.”

Chuck again… Well, this is just robbing from the future, in my opinion, but if a were a company I would seriously think about doing the same… 

Market Prices 5/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6418, kiwi .5928, C$. 7199, euro 1.1283, sterling 1.3316, Swiss $1.2108, European Style: rand 18.1767, krone 10.3534, SEK 9.6646, forint 358.21, zloty 3.7835, koruna 22.0947, RUB 82.62, yen 144.67, sing 1.2965, HKD 7.7711, INR 85.71, China 7.2380, peso 19.59, BRL 5. 7449, BBDXY 1,2225, Dollar Index 100.05, Oil $59.67, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $32.34, Platinum $971.00, Palladium $960.00, Copper $4.60, and Gold… $3,342.41

That’s it for today, until Wednesday next week…  My beloved Cardinals made it a 5-game win streak with their sweep of the Pirates yesterday. They got the game in before the rain… Now they head to D.C to paly the Nationals… Well, this Sunday is Mother’s Day… If you’re lucky to still have your mother around, make sure you give her a hug and tell her how important she is to you!  I miss my mom greatly, especially this time of year… She was my biggest fan… And I’ve had that void in my life since 1997… So, don’t blow it! Sunday is Mother’s Day!  Blood, Sweat & Tears take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to day, and all you moms out there, I hope your Sunday is grand!  Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Tues, but get sold overnight…
• Gold / Oil ratio spreads out, what’s that mean?

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I have to say that i was really impressed by the Cardinals young pitcher last night, as he outdueled the superstar pitcher for the Pirates…  I was down and out yesterday and slept most of the day. You may recall me telling you that I woke up with my stomach upside down, but it was setting down… Well, that “settling down” didn’t last, and I had to take some nausea medicine, then fell asleep only to wake up at 2 PM, had some chicken noodle soup, and fell back asleep… UGH Buddy Miles greets me this morning with his song: Them Changes…

And Them Changes brought about some major dollar selling yesterday, as the BBDXY lost 8 index points on the day, and finished yesterday at 1,216… Gold continued to rebound from last week’s selling, and gained $96 on the day to close at $3,431… And Silver gained 25-cents to close at $33.29… Well, I guess the Chinese have proven that the Gold price needs them badly… Last week the Chinese were on their Labor Day holiday that lasted 5 days, and Gold sunk… Upon the return of the Chinese Gold has gained $220!  And Silver has gained too, but lags Gold, with the Gold/ Silver ratio remains at 102… 

I talked yesterday about how there are reports of a Silver short squeeze… And while I can’t seem to find any hard evidence of a short squeeze, I do now that there is a silver shortage, and experts predict that the deficit will continue in 2025. I would think that the additional usage of physical Silver is increasing with the implementation of Silver in Solar panels, and other industrial uses…  So… If you’re looking for a bargain metal to buy… Wink, wink…

The price of Oil bumped higher again yesterday and ended the day trading with a $59 handle… Again, I’m not seeing the justification of bumping the price of Oil higher, given the OPEC folks are talking about swamping the glove with a slew of Oil…  I’m just saying…

And The 10-year Treasury bond was stuck in the mud yesterday, as the bond boys decided to wait-n-see what the FOMC does this afternoon before making a decision as to where bond yields will go… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar started the overnight session getting bought, but that didn’t last too long as the selling of the dollar persisted, and in the end, we start today with the BBDXY down 1 index point to 1,218… Well, Gold’s two days of being up over $90 had ended today… I know, I know, the day has just started there’s time to come back, but… Gold is seeing short paper trading enter the markets again, and some profit taking thrown in to start our day down $44… And Silver is not cooking with gas this morning either as Silver is down 30-cents to start the day… 

I figure the metals had gone too far too fast and this selling is just reminding everyone that the wolf is always at the door, and that the metals assets are not a ONE-WAY STREET! 

The price of Oil remained in the $59 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury saw some selling overnight, and its yield rose to 4.33%… Not a huge move upward, but a move nonetheless… 

Well, this FOMC meeting this month is a two-day meeting filled with lots of board games being played… In fact, I think you can hear a Fed Heads proclaiming that “you sunk my battleship” HA!  That means the 2^nd day of the meeting will be chock-full-o-discussion about how to lie to the public about what they plan to do going forward… If the dollar is getting sold like it is before the decision on rates, I don’t see it gaining any ground after the decision on rates, which in my opinion will be no change…

I found this on Kirco.com this morning and is an interesting take on recession indicators, that quite frankly I hadn’t heard of before…  here you go: “Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a research note Tuesday that the growing discrepancy between oil and gold prices is sending strong signals that economic conditions may continue to deteriorate to historic levels.

“In 100 years of annual performance, 2025’s year-to-date decline of almost 21% in oil prices versus gold’s 26% gain has brought the disparity to nearly 50%—the fourth-largest difference from 1925 to 2025,” he said.

Chuck again… So, see? You can teach an old dog a new trick! What, you don’t think I’m old? Shoot Rudy, when I was born the Dead Seas wasn’t even sick yet!  HA!  The last time I was in the hospital the nurse said “can you tell me your name and birth date”, to which I replied, “yes I can”… After gasping she said what is your name and birth date… I said Charles Butler, 3/22/55.. I may be 70 and the paper tells you that I’m old but I know I don’t look that old!  she laughed out loud… I knew then that I shouldn’t use that line any longer!

Ok, sorry for that trip down the rabbit hole… You know me and my fat fingers… They start typing and the next thing we know is I’ve gone on and on about something… Oh, well, it just show to go you that you get what you pay for!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Trade Deficit, and it was a doozy! I told you it would come in very high, and it did just that, printing at $140.5 Billion… I don’t think that figure made the POTUS a happy camper, and he just needs to be patient, as future trade deficit prints won’t be as nasty, as I’ve pointed out here previously, Companies have been front loading their imports to steer clear of the tariffs… 

Today’s Data Cupboard just has the FOMC meeting on the docket.  And of course, the press conference after the rate decision is made, to tell us lies…  I’m just saying… 

To recap, the dollar continued to get sold yesterday with the BBDXY losing 8 index points. Gold gained $96 and has gained $220 since the Chinese came back from their 5-day holiday. Silver lags Gold, and the ratio between the two remains at 102… The FOMC finishes their two-day meeting this afternoon… Chuck has stated and keeps saying that the Fed Heads will keep rates unchanged…  If they were to surprise the hell out of the markets, and cut rates, they would be indicating to everyone that there are problems in the economy…  The overnight markets brough about some selling of the metals, and we start our day today on a sour note… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, anytime Ron Paul writes something, it catches my eye, and this one did just that! This article is about how the DOGE group didn’t fare too well, because they didn’t have the legislative backing, and it can be found here: The Empire Strikes Back – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “News this week that Elon Musk will soon be departing his “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) is a grim reminder of what happens when you challenge big spending DC. Unfortunately, the lesson once again is that when you challenge the empire, the empire eventually strikes back.

President Trump rode into office with the help of Elon Musk’s ambitious plan to cut two trillion dollars in spending and slash useless and bloated government bureaucracies. Opinion polls demonstrated the huge popularity of the “Department.” Americans were excited when DOGE came to DC.

The exposure of the real harm being done to the country by agencies like USAID and others reinforced the idea that much of the “Federal bureaucracy” was simply not needed. Although Musk became a figure of hate for the entrenched special interests, to the large chunk of America forced to pay for Washington’s excesses he became a hero.

Many in Congress, seeing its popularity, actively embraced DOGE. Suddenly those who helped us rack up 37 trillion in debt were talking about making huge cuts and posing for photos with Musk.

Unfortunately, after the photos were taken and the hoopla had died down, Congress returned to doing what it usually does: nothing. There is no way for a DOGE to succeed without the Legislative Branch enshrining those cuts in legislation. But when the massive “Big Beautiful” spending bill was introduced, the spending cuts were nowhere to be found.”

Chuck again, the title of his article is: The Empire Strikes Bank” Very appropriate, in my opinion!

Market Prices 5/7/2025: American Style: A$ 64275, kiwi .5989, C$ .7248, euro 1.1364, sterling 1.3348, Swiss $1.2140, European Style: ramd 18.2723, krone 10.2728, SEK 9.5957, forint 355.93, zloty 3.6392, koruna 21.9503, RUB 81.02, yen 142.31, sing 1.2911, HKD 7.7593, INR 84.33, China 7.2254, peso 19.71, BRL 5.7162, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 99.41, Oil $9.60, 10-year 4.33%, Silver $32.93, Platinum $969.00, Palladium $984.00, Copper $4.65, and Gold… $3,386.75

That’s it for today… I’m feeling much better today, you can figure out how unwell i felt yesterday, as I was offered two tickets to today’s day game at Busch stadium… Longtime readers know my affection for day games! To me, there’s nothing like sitting in the warm sun at a ballpark watching a baseball game! That’s why I enjoy Spring Training so much! Mott The Hoople takes us to the finish line today with their song: All The Young Dudes…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Monday and overnight!
• Chuck explains money supply and inflation..

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! After a night and next day of sorrow because our Blues lost Game with 2.2 seconds to play, my beloved Cardinals tried to the sting out of the Blues loss, by winning their game last night VS the Pirates… The had to come from behind twice but in the end, they won the game…   I’m really draggin’ the line (The Shondells) this morning, so i have no guarantees of how long this will be this morning…  The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their song: Ride My See Saw… 

Well, the selling of the dollar didn’t end with the overnight markets from Sunday night into Monday. The dollar was sold in the Monday session bringing the loss on the day to 5 index points in the BBDXY, which ended the day at 1,219…  I find this welling to be very interesting, ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. I’ll talk about the reversal in the overnight markets section coming up, but first….

Gold & Silver had banner days ahead of the FOMC meeting, which again I find very interesting, but I was taught to never look a gift horse in the mouth… So, I’ll just say that Gold recovered its losses from last week in one day’s trading… Gold gained $94 on the day and closed Monday at $3,335…  I hear that there’s a Silver short squeeze going on and that could propel Silver to $50…  Hmm….  I’m from Missouri, I’ll have to be shown that!  Not that I don’t think that without short paper traders, Silver could already be trading at $50, it’s just that the short paper traders are like the wolf that’s always at your door… 

Silver gained 50-cents yesterday, and closed at $32,44… So, if there is a short squeeze going on here we should see Silver gain a large amount again today, until the short squeeze get enough water hosed onto it!

The price of Oil remained in the $57 handle yesterday, but ended the day at $57.99… Oh-so-close-eh?  The 10-year Treasury’s yield saw more selling yesterday and the yield on the bond ended the day trading with a 4.435% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Wel, before I retired last night, I checked the BBDXY to see if the dollar selling was still  en-vogue…  And it wasn’t, at that time, the BBDXY had gained to 1,224… But during the night as I slept (not very good) the dollar selling returned, and so we start today with the BBDXY at 1,220… All this dollar selling, and bond selling, with currencies, metals and Oil rallying ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, has got me scratching my bald head… And then I think about what I’ve always told you… Traders do NOT like unknowns in the markets… And with the POTUS announcing new tariffs, and the FOMC on the table, the markets are full of unknowns right now… 

Gold continued is rebound overnight and early this morning, with a gain of $43 to follow up yesterday’s gain of $94… Silver is up 55-cents to start the day today and is back above the $33 handle.  The short paper traders are on the other side of the trade now, and the Chinese are back from vacation, making for a perfect storm for the metals… 

The price of oil bumped higher to a $58 handle overnight,,, I keep reading reports about how the folks at OPEC are going to swamp the globe with their large supplies of Oil… I would have to think that this is contra to what the OPEC dudes are seeking, a higher price in Oil… But who am I to question their motives?  Oh, c’mon Chuck you do that to everyone all the time!  Yes, I guess you’re right… 

And the 10-year Treasury bond stayed Steady Eddie overnight, and begins today trading with a 4.34% yield… That’s it for the overnight markets, so onward and upward to the Op-Ed section of the letter… 

Well, long ago, I wrote in the Pfennig what I thought was the cause of our inflation at that time… I’ve repeated myself many times throughout the years… What I’m talking about is money supply…  You see, when they taught real economics in college, I was taught then that money supply equals inflation…  And this past weekend I came across some data that showed money supply has gained over 200% from 2007 to now… Or, if you prefer to see it in actual dollars added to the markets, the total is $73,75 Trillion…  And you know what follows money supply growth? Gold… That’s why I say it’s an excellent asset to use to hedge against inflation! 

I’ve had that money supply data in my back pocket for a few days now, and decided that since the FOMC is assembling to discuss interest rates, I would pull it out, with hopes that someone in the ECCKLE Building will read it and say something to the FOMC members that will vote on a rate movement or not… 

The decline of the dollar, is really beginning to show up all around the globe… This past weekend I read a piece by Mattew Piepenburg, at VongretzGold.com And since I have his whole article I thought I would cut a piece of what had to say, which as I’ve said before, “When Mattew talks I listen”…  here you go: “As Uncle Sam now reaches $37T in public debt, the rest of the world, having seen that same bully of a fiat dollar weaponized and indebted beyond rational levels, is no longer as interested as it once was.

In short, for America, it’s now “our dollar, our problem” as the world slowly turns its back on the once hegemonic USA, UST and USD– the distrust and evidence of which is literally everywhere.

 Equally evident are the desperate policy reactions from DC to make the dollar hegemonic again—from DOGE headlines and tariff destructions to even the tragic irony of a so-called BTC Strategic Reserve Fund…

In this era of a less trusted and demanded dollar and UST, the backdrop for gold couldn’t be stronger, and the argument for “peak gold” couldn’t be weaker.” – Matthew Piepenburg… 

I really like his use of the old phrase, in his own words, from then Treasury head, Connolly, who told finance ministers around the world that “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem”…  It also seems that the Asian currency rally is spreading across the Globe… 

I’ve got to mention that in doing yesterday’s currency roundup, I noticed that the Singapore dollar (Sing) had really rallied… And it was due! Years ago, I explained that the Sing and the Chinese renminbi pretty much move in tandem, as one currency can’t get out of hand, while the other one doesn’t, because the two countries are in competition to export pharmaceuticals and other goods… And the Chinese renminbi has been allowed to gain quite a bit VS the dollar in recent times.. Of course, not in the last 5 days, as the Chinese were on holiday… 

So, Gold is back on the rally tracks…  Funny (not funny ha-ha), but this rally in Gold is coinciding with the return of the Chinese after their 5-day holiday that ended yesterday… Welcome back you’ve been sorely missed and there wasn’t enough volume from the West to keep the short paper traders at bay! A song gets into my head here, Thin Lizzy’s: The Boys Are Back In Town…

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have the final Trade Deficit for March for our viewing pleasure this morning…  Recall that last week I wrote about how the initial Trade deficit had hit a new all-time record high, as companies are taking imports ahead of the tariffs, and that I didn’t like to see that, and wondered what the final Trade Deficit would look like…  Well, I guess we’ll see later this morning, but I’m sure that it will be astronomically high! 

To recap… The dollar is getting sold ahead of the FOMC meeting that will take place tomorrow afternoon… The metals are back on the rally tracks, after the Chinese return from their 5-day holiday… The short paper traders knew that the physical buying of Gold would be very low with China gone, and so they took that as their benefit and performed engineered takedowns in the metals… But that’s all over now, folks… The Data Cupboard will have the Trade Deficit for us to view this morning. And Chuck goes through his explanation of what money supply does to inflation, and so on… I hope you didn’t miss that!

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and it’s an article that they pulled from Bloomberg.com So, I pulled up Bloomberg.com and found it! This is about how the dollar’s decline is really turning the Asian currencies into Tigers (my words, )  and it can be found here: Dollar’s Decline Is Fueling Dislocations Across Asian Currencies – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Asian currencies ripped higher against the US dollar Monday, extending a move that’s hurting exporters, weighing on equities and forcing central banks to intervene in the market to curb excessive gains.

Taiwan’s dollar surged the most since 1988, sending the nation’s benchmark stock index to its steepest slide in nearly a month. The offshore yuan climbed to its highest level in almost six months as exporters repatriated dollar earnings. The Hong Kong dollar held at the strong end of its allowed trading band for a second session. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah recouped most of this year’s losses after slumping to a record low less than a month ago.

The volatility shows how an exodus from the world’s reserve currency can ripple through financial markets, as President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies fuel concern over a US recession. Last week, speculative traders became more bearish on the dollar than at any time since September, in a sign of growing reluctance among investors to hold US assets.

Taiwan’s dollar surged on Monday, the biggest intraday gain in over three decades, on speculation exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US dollars to the island’s currency. Bloomberg MLIV Strategist Mark Cranfield shares his insights.

Asian currencies including the yen and yuan are benefiting from a mix of repatriation buying and as alternative investments amid the “sell America” wave. The strategy appeared to remain intact even as both Beijing and Washington seemed to be softening their stance on the trade war, with President Trump at the weekend signaling he’s open to reducing import duties on Chinese goods to spur trade.

“The natural way out of a lot of this trade tension is via the dollar balloon deflating,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies. Therefore, “loading up on a little downside for dollar versus Asia might make sense.”

Chuck again… Yes, unfortunately, the Asian Central Banks will be intervening to stem the advancement of their respective currencies, but one thing I learned long ago, in a galaxy far away, is that the markets always have deeper pockets than Central Banks… So having said that, it simply means that the Central Bank intervention will work in a short period of time, but in the end the markets will…

Market Prices 5/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6460, kiwi .5982, C$ .7243, euro 1.1331, sterling 1.3372, Swiss $1.2130, European Style: rand 18.2578, krone 10.3536, SEK 9.6104, forint 357.56, zloty 3.5756, koruna 22.0244, RUB 80.80, yen 142.28, sing 1.2891, HKD 7.7501, INR 84.43, China 7.2170, peso 19.71, BRL 5.6376, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 99.55, Oil $58.22, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $33.10, Platinum $977.00, Palladium $958.00, Copper $4.71, and Gold… $3,378.44

That’s it for today… Well St. Louis sure is still reeling from our Blues loss Sunday night… UGH! My beloved Cardinals won last night to take some of the sting away… I woke up this morning with my stomach-turning upside down and giving me fits… It has settled down since, so I’m going to test drinking some coffee… Kathy surprised me last night by making her world-famous Tacos for Cino de Mayo! When we were younger we would go out with our neighbor friends and have a good time… I guess we’ve all just grown old… I won’t say grown up, because I haven’t, just grown old…  Sirius XM is playing an old John Denver song this morning, that I used to LOVE playing on my guitar… The song to take us to the finish line today is his song: Back Home Again… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets…
• No rate cut coming, what’s a dollar bug to do?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… Well, it was a chilly, rainy weekend here in the Midwest… Lots of rain on Saturday, left the rivers and creeks swollen once again. The rivers and creeks had just gone back down to within their respective banks… April will go on record, here that is, for most precipitation received in our recorded history… And May won’t be far behind if this weather pattern keeps up!  After losing 9 consecutive games to the pond scum, I mean the Mets, my beloved Cardinals finally beat them, not without nerves being tested, yesterday…  In fact, they swept the doubleheader!   Paul Simon greets me this morning with his song: Call Me Al… 

Well, going into last weekend, Gold had just experienced one of its worst weeks in a month of Sundays… Gold did eke out a 30-cent gain on Friday, but that hardly wrapped a tourniquet around Gold’s bleeding… There were many explanations out on the newswires last week about what was going on with Gold, Shoot Rudy, even a tech guy tried to explain it using a Technical pattern…  I sill believe that it was a case of a little selling begot more selling, and that begot even more selling… The sheeple played into the hands and dirty deeds of the short paper traders… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!  Just like when I tell people that my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! Yep, that’s it! 

The dollar was on the rally tracks for most of the week, and then it wasn’t… On Friday, as I suggested last week that the data would end the dollar’s rally, the economic data just kept printing, and weighing on the dollar, which was the BBDXY lose over 5 index points, and finish the week at 1,224… The euro, which had fallen below the 1.13 figure, rallied to close above the figure again on Friday, and the rest of the currencies all followed the BIG Dog euro… 

So, like I said above, Gold ended the week up 30-cents, and held a closing price of $3,241… Silver was also taken to the woodshed last week, and ended the week barely holding the 32-cents figure, closing at $32.06, down 43-cents on the day…  

The price of Oil closed the week on Friday trading with a $58 handle… Oil has fallen along side with Gold and makes one think that risk assets are persona no gratis right now…  And the buying in the 10-year Treasury had been really doing a number on the 10-year’s yield, that is until late last week, (the bad data again)  and the 10-year closed the week at 4.31%… 

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar continued to be sold, with the BBDXY at a 4 index point loss as we start our day today…  For once in a blue moon, the dollar bugs looked at the economic data that printed last week and then looked ahead to this week and the Fed Heads leaving rates unchanged, and the decided to not buy dollars..  Now, you would think, I know I did at first, that a strong, albeit trumped up jobs report and a no rate cut outlook would help the dollar, but after a month of speculation that the next move from the Fed Heads would be a rate cut, the expectations were blown out of the water, and that has the dollar bugs very upset, that they were wrong, and so the dollar suffers… 

I read a headline article this morning that said, “Wall Street remains bearish on Gold this week”… Well, if that’s true, Gold is showing a strange way to be bearish, as the shiny metal is up $96=cents to start our day/ week this morning… Yes, that’s right… 96-cents…  Silver is up 43-cents to start the day/ week this morning. So, to me what this look like?  OK, in a previous Pfennig For Your Thoughts I explained the short paper traders M.O.  that they short the heck out of the Gold & Silver until they think they have done so enough, and then they turnaround and buy the metals at the much cheaper prices, and profit again when they decide that they’ve made enough profit for this go-around, and they sell short again… Ed Sterer calls this the “Wash, Rinse cycle”… 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight, and trades this morning with a $57 handle… I read this morning, that our friends (NOT!) at OPEC have amassed a glut of Oil and are going to swamp the markets with it… For whatever that’s worth…  And the 10-uear Treasury picked up a BIP overnight and starts our day/ week trading with a 4.31% yield. 

The Eurozone received a nice surprise in their economic data late last week, when their 1^st QTR GDP surprised with a upbeat print of .4% (The Eurozone was pretty much thought of as nearing 0% growth)…  I recently wrote a piece for my good friend, Dennis Miller, in www.milleronthemoney.com  and in it I looked at the Eurozone as finally coming to grips with the direction of their economy, and this is what I wrote: ” I see realignment; giving more power to the people, recognizing the ethnic votes and individual country culture. By doing so, the EU should return to what they were formed for, peace, prosperity, and freedom to easily move about the countries of the EU. Economic growth helps return Germany to the powerhouse manufacturer it once was…

Rose colored glasses? Perhaps, but it’s what I see!” – Chuck Butler in www.milleronthemoney.com

OK… Back to the U.S.  Well, the POTUS did what I thought he was going to do last Friday… Here’s the skinny: ” President Trump signed an executive order on April 24, 2025, titled “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources”. This order aims to promote the development of offshore critical minerals in the oceans adjacent to the U.S., as well as foster collaboration with allies for deep-sea mineral resource development in foreign waters.”

Remember I told you that it is expected that $150 Trillion worth of minerals, commodities, and Oil is underground (or at sea) and that getting a hold of these would make the U.S the richest country in the world, it would pay off our national debt all $37 Trillion worth of it, and have some left to start a Sovereign Wealth Fund…  Now, this won’t happen overnight, and won’t happen next month, but within a year we, as a country should begin to see some changes…   

Of course, all things usually don’t work out as planned…  They either fall short of expectations, or they don’t materialize at all… 

This is a BIG DEAL folks !  Mark my words on this… And in a couple of years, get back with me and tell me how wrong I was…  Hey! I didn’t make this stuff up, folks… In other words, Don’t Shoot The Mesenger!  Either this pans out for our country’s best, or it doesn’t…

The FOMC meets this week, on Wednesday, to discuss rates… And after last week’s data showing that new jobs created were much better than expected in April, I don’t see the FOMC cutting rates at this meeting or for any of the next couple for that matter… The FOMC’s decision to skip a rate cut, isn’t going to set well with the POTUS, and the Fed Heads Chairman, Powell, will be back in the Presidential dog house again but there’s nothing the POTUS can do about it, and he has to wait until Feb when Powell’s term ends… 

Speaking of the Jobs report, i shake my head in disgust one again at the BLS’s adding of jobs out of thin air… Even when it has been discovered and acknowledged that the jobs creation numbers for the U.S. have been grossly overstated going back years… The BLS continues to add jobs to the surveys… For this month’s jobs print, the BLS added 383,000 jobs! Now, given what we now know about revisions, you can expect that a majority of those 383,000 jobs created by the BLS will be reversed in parcels, so that it’s not so obvious what’s going on … But… The markets don’t see this like I do…  And so, that will lead the FOMC to not cut rates this week, and get everyone all lathered up about how strong the economy is…  When in actuality the economy is not strong… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard will be taking on the look of strong data reports in the coming weeks… And that’s only because U.S. companies are taking on tons of goods and deliveries now to avoid future tariffs, and robbing from the future… So, Inventories will be spewing goods that aren’t being sold…  Let’s see how that all works out for the Companies, eh?  I see this as causing tears… But then that’s just me… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn’t have anything market moving for us today, and tomorrow we get that final Trade Deficit print that I talked about last week… And then on Wednesday we’ll have the Jobs Jamboree, and then that’s about it for data this week… 

To recap… The dollar got sold going into the weekend, and Gold finally stopped getting sold, gaining just 30-cetns on Friday… The Eurozone received a surprise 1^st QTR GDP last week… And Chuck brings back something he said last month in an interview with Dennis Miller… The POTUS did open vast areas of land and sea to exploration of minerals, commodities and Oil… Chuck thinks that IF, IF, IF everything works out, the way they are planned it could be good for the U.S.  We’ll see… 

There’s no For What It’s Worth article today… I searched and searched and couldn’t find anything that was FWIW worthy…  So, come back tomorrow, I’m sure there will be something FWIW worthy today, it just kind of feels like some dolt will say something today! Same bat time, same bat channel, tomorrow, without commercials too! 

Market Prices 5/5/2025: American Style: A$ .6488, kiwi .5980, C$ .7246, euro 1.1342, sterling 1.3301, Swiss $1.2146, European Style: rand 18.3107, krone 10.3720, SEK 9.6316, forint 356.04, zloty 3.7710, koruna 21.7557, RUB 80.70, yen 143.47, sing 1.2633, HKD 7.7500, INR 84.26, China 7.2713, peso 19.58, BRL 5.6571, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 96.63, Oil $57.42, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $32.55, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $4.72, and Gold… $3,318.70

That’s it for today… I’m here all week.. Try the veal!  buy next week I’ll be out on Monday & Tuesday. Monday, I see my new pulmonary doctor, and Tuesday it’s time for new scans. My breathing recovered a bit over the weekend, so that’s a good thing… But I’m still wondering what caused that relapse?  It was GAME 7 last night for the Blues and Jets, and after leading by 2 goals with 2 minutes to play, the Blues blew the lead, and in the 2^nd overtime, they lost the game and series… Tim to pack up the golf clubs now boys…  I watched in horror as the Blues forgot how to defend the goal… Oh, well, our Blues came from near last place to make the playoffs, and then take the best team (points wise this year) to a Game 7… A pretty good turnaround, I’d say!  but no Stanley Cup this year, there’s always next year, right? So, it’s all about baseball now… C’mon Cardinals get more consistent…  The band, Rooper takes us to the finish line today with their song: Round, Round We Go…  Don’t know that one? YOUTUBE it, I think you’ll like it… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler          .  . 

• currencies and metals get sold in the overnight markets
• what will the POTUS have to tell us tomorrow?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals won both games of their doubleheader yesterday VS the Reds. YAHOO! But.. Our Blues couldn’t find an answer in their loss to the Jets last night, thus falling to 2-3 in their best of 7 series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs… UGH!  One team’s season is really just getting started, while the other team’s season could be coming to a early exit… The Blues come home to play Game 6… Let’s Go Blues! Sugarloaf greets me this morning with their deep cut song: Green Eyed Lady

Katy Bar The Door! This is totally ridiculous… Gold got sold yesterday to the tune of $28… But that’s just the beginning of this fiasco with Gold… When I retired last night, I checked the metals and Gold was down $91 !  

So, I checked the internet and found this on the Economic Times website: “The drop in gold price comes at a time when market risk sentiment is improving. One of the biggest drivers of this shift is the easing of trade tensions between the US and several major trading partners. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing tariffs on foreign auto parts, granting carmakers a two-year window to raise domestic sourcing. This move, coupled with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noting “very good” offers from trade partners, has sparked optimism about the future.”

So, as the Good Witch Glynda told the munchkins, “Come out, Come out, it’s safe now”  I don’t see it, the reason to be optimistic, but the markets do, and the markets are never wrong… That’s what an old trader told me to always remember, back in my days at WZW brokerage… That job was after my time at RG Dickenson in Des Moines Ia., which was after my time at Stifel Nicolaus in St. Louis,  which was after I hung up my guitar and gave up trying to be a rock star… I’m trying to calm myself down right now, as you can see… Anything to take my mind off the markets being optimistic… 

Silve has fared no better, giving up 91-cents yesterday and was down 55-cents late last night…  

The dollar saw some buying yesterday, for what I have no idea… Oh, the dollar bugs hung their hats on the Consumer Spending data that showed a .7% increase in March… I guess the folks that decide whether it was a good print or not, forgot to look at Consumer Income, which was .5%, and once again, we as a country spent more than we made… The BBDXY gained 1 index point yesterday to close at 1,223… So, as Glynda said… Come out, Come out, it’s safe now…  A week ago, everybody was wearing sandwich boards with “The End Is Near” printed on them, and this week it’s all seashells and balloons…  

The price of Oil dropped another buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $58 handle… And with the economic data REALLY pringing not so good, the 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped to 4.18%, donw from the start of the day’s yield of 4.21%… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, Gold did fight back some and starts the day today down 

Before I checked the metals prices last night, I had found an article on MarketWatch.com that had a headline to their story of: “How the twilight of ‘king dollar’ could be the dawn of a new world currency”  Well, you know that caught my eye, and so I just had to look at the rest of the article, right? But, unfortunately I needed a subscription to MarketWatch to read the article…So, I can only imagine what it had to say, something along the lines of: The U.S. Empire is in its senior years…  And with the fall of the Empire, as all Empires end up doing throughout history, there will be the need of a new reserve currency, and the question here and now is what currency will that be?  That’s my 2-cents thrown into the pot on what I thought was in the article…

I hear that tomorrow is the day that the POTUS will make another announcement, this time being about opening up vast regions in the U.S. that contain minerals, commodities, Oil, for mineral companies to come in and excavate and find these minerals, commodities, and Oil… James Rickards puts the value of these things at $150 Trillion…  That figure dwarfs the national Debt, and the unfunded Debt, easily, with over $100 Trillion left…  Now, this all remains to be seen, but it appears to be a plan, and I love it when a plan comes together! 

Now THAT would be cause for optimism! But like I said this all remains to be seen, and you know what they say bout a plan… It all looks good on paper, until you get punched in the mouth!  I’m sure there will be snags, and bats that live in caves that throw a spanner in the works… I’m just saying… Don’t go counting your eggs before they are hatched! 

The euro got slapped in the face yesterday and last night… And the rest of the currencies all lined up for their slap in the face… This is a complete reversal of sentiment folks… And I can’t help but think that this will all come back to bite the markets and its participants in the rear… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bough with a little more pace than what existed yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points to start our day today… And with that going on, you can assume that the currencies are backing off their recent gains, and you would be correct!  Gold tried to fight back last night, with it recovering from down $92 to down $58, but that rally ran out of steam and the selling continued to eat away at Gold’s price. Gold starts today down $77, and Silver is down cents to start our day today… There’s no two ways about it, this is the short paper traders doing, and if you know one of these dastardly people, I say we kill him, no, I say we hang ’em then we kill him, no, I say we hang him, then we shoot him and then we kill him…. (Pee Wee Herman) 

I used to work with a young lady, Ann Hopkins, who would get a belly laugh whenever I did my Pee Wee Herman imitation on the trade desk at EverBsnk…  See? I was a fun guy to work for!   After radiation on my jaw in 2011, my voice isn’t the same any longer… So, no Steve Mizeranek, Pee Wee Herman voices from me… I can still do my imitation of the lollipop kids from the Wizard of Oz1 Oh, c’mon Chuck what does any of this have to about the markets, economies and dolts? 

Besides the selling of Gold and Silver this morning… I don’t have much more for you, except a great piece in the FWIW section to stay turned for that!

The U.S. Data Cupboard had a ton of prints yesterday that I’ve already talked about, except for the PCE the Fed Heads pet inflation calc.   The PCE for March came in at 2.6% on an annual basis, that’s still above the 2% target rate the Fed Heads drew into the sand a long time ago…  Remember last month’s print that was 2.8%, well that got revised upward to 3.%… And add my name to the article below author’s thought about revisions…  

The Data Cupboard today will have the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday print of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have stubbornly remained around 225,000 each week… We’ll also see the color of the ISM for April today, and I fully expect that this print will stay below the line in the sand 50… Remember 50 is the line that says that any number above it equals expansion in Manufacturing, and any number below it equals contraction… So, if the POTUS gets his way, the data will finally get off the canvas, and gain… But I thin we’ll have to be patient for that to happen…  Until then the economy suffers from a contracting manufacturing sector…  Tomorrow we’ll see the Jobs Jamboree for March, and right now they are expected to have created only 133,000 jobs in March… But like I said previously, I don’t think the BLS will stand for a weak jobs report print… 

To recap… What the hell is going on with Gold? (Microsoft doesn’t like the harshness of that statement, but I didn’t change it! The dollar has been getting bought overnight, and the BBDXY is up 3 index points to start our day today… Gold is down $77 and the short paper traders are having a field day… I say we hang him!  Hey, they’ve created some excellent buying opportunities in the metals… I’m just saying… Wil the POTUS unlock vast areas of land for exploration and mining of minerals? I guess we’ll see tomorrow, along with the jobs report… 

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this much ballyhooed article by me, is very interesting in that it talks about inflation calculations, and their revisions… And it can be found here: Inflation Is in the Revisions? What Stands Out Once Again in the PCE Price Index? Sharp Up-Revisions of Prior Month’s Inflation | Wolf Street

Or, here’s your snippet: “The inflation measure released today for March – the PCE price index favored by the Fed as yardstick for its inflation target – has a salient feature that it had many times before: Sharp up-revisions of the prior month’s data, this time for February, triggered by hot up-revisions in core services inflation.

The February month-to-month data were revised sharply higher today, driven by core services which dominates the overall index.

Overall PCE: to +0.44% (5.5% annualized), from originally +0.33% (+4.0% annualized)

Core PCE: to 0.50% (+6.1% annualized), from originally +0.37% (+4.5% annualized)

Core services: to +0.52% (+6.5% annualized), from originally +0.35% (+4.3% annualized).

The February year-over-year readings were also revised higher, which caused the core PCE price index for February to hit +3.0%, highest in a year:

Overall PCE: to +2.7%, originally +2.5%.

Core PCE: to +3.0%, originally +2.8%.

Core services: to +3.8%, originally +3.6%.

In March, the price changes were from the up-revised February levels.

On a year-over-year basis in March:”

Chuck again, there’s more to the article if you’re interested in seeing more… I always talk about the revisions that are made under the cover of darkness, and how they should be looked at by the markets more closely… I mean, take for example last month’s PCE print of 2.8%, but then gets revised to 3.0%, the highest its been in a year, now isn’t that something investors should know and could be the very reason the Fed Heads haven’t budged on lowering rates further…  I shake my head in disgust here folks… 

Market Prices 5/1/2025…  American Style: A$ . 6398, kiwi .5933, C$.7248, euro 1.1334, sterling 1.3340, Swiss $1.2100, European Style: rand 18.6234, krone 10.4107, SEK 9.7013, forint 356.44, zloty 3.7749, koruna 21.9716, RUB 81.81, yen 14438, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7588, INR 84.47, China 7.2759, peso 19.61, BRL 5.6788, BBDXY 1,226, Dollar Index 99,71, Oil $56.84, 10-yeqr 4.14%, Silver $3195, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $944.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,211.07

That’s it for today and this week… Our Blues took one on the chin last night.. UGH… It’s been like the Monsson season here in my little river town… Rain, Rain go away, Chuck wants to go outside and read! When Alex was a little boy, (he’s 28 now) he used to say: “rain, rain go away, little Alex wants to go outside and play”… He was quite the entertaining child… C’mon Cardinals make today’s finale in Cincy a series win! Cardinals come home to play the vaunted Mets 3 games, i wonder what the rain is going to do with the games, but you can’t fight Mother Nature!  Bob Dylan takes us to the finish line today with his great song: Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door…  I sometimes think that’s what I’m doing!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Tuesday, but Gold gets sold
• What do the Chinese have up their sleeves?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beloved cardinals started their road trip losing… UGH They were rained out last night, and the team was probably grateful for the rain! I think I saw someone doing a rain dance outside their clubhouse! HAHA! Not really, but you get the point… I’m still trying to get why Gold is getting sold right now, but I think i’ve finally nailed it, so stay turned to the same bat channel this morning for that thought! Sam & Dave greet me this morning with their mega 60’s hit: Soul Man

Well, the dollar is back to getting sold, after the PPT’s intervention scared traders into buying dollars, but that wore off, and why wouldn’t it?  The U.S.’s first QTR GDP printed this morning at just  .3% !!!!  That sure gives the dollar bears some fodder for their buying… The BBDXY has lost 4 index points since we last talked. And starts today at 1,222… The fear of a bad Trade Deficit came to fruition yesterday, and that got the dollar selling.  The strange thing about selling the dollar is that Gold isn’t taking advantage of the weaker dollar… 

Gold was down $26 yesterday, and is down $13, rhe early trading this morning…  On Monday, you may recall me talking about Gold turning around tts early morning loss, and that’s exactly what it did..  Gold turned a $28 kiss into a Gain of $24… That’s a $62 turn around folks… And got me thinking that the selling in Gold was over… Boy was I wrong! Gold has been sold two days in a row… Yesterday, Gold lost $26, is down $13. To trade at 3,303… Silver has been the whipping boy of the short metals traders for what seems like decades, and that’s probably pretty close to what’s going on… Silver starts today, down 25-cents…  

I mentioned above that I think I’ve nailed the reason Gold is getting sold so much lately…   You see it’s all about the RSI… Remember when I had mentioned that Gold was in the overbought area of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and was amazed that it was still gaining?  Well, the short paper traders finally saw this overbought position, and decided to rectify that…  And all their selling has just about brough Gold back to market neutral position.  So, will they stop there?  I doubt it… But all the weak data that’s about to print should get the dollar bugs riled up again, and we could see a turnaround…  The thing that I always say when the short metals traders have their way with the metals, as Silver too has been sold, is that what they do is create excellent buying opportunities…  wink, wink…. 

The price of Oil has gotten sold, and is down $2 to trade this morning with a $59 handle… The slow growth of the U.S. economy has a lot to do with that… And the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield is trading at 4.21% this morning… 

In the overnight markets, there was little to no movement in the dollar but that’s about to change, in my humble opinion, because of the weaker economic data that’s getting ready to be printed!   As I mentioned above, Gold is down $13 to start our day, and Silver is down 25-cents..  These two need to get turned around quickly!   Copper has gotten mixed up with the short selling, and has lost over 30-cents in value since Monday! Why? Because they can, that’s why! 

Well, let’s start this portion of the letter off with some talk about the younger generations work ethics… This bodes badly for the future of the U.S. economy, so let’s get into right here: 73% of Gen Z and 70% of millennials are looking to change jobs, compared to only 33% of baby boomers, highlighting a significant generational divide in workplace satisfaction. Nearly 3 in 4 workers are living paycheck to paycheck
Burnout affects 68% of Gen Z workers but only 30% of boomers, with monotonous work and stagnant pay cited as top factors contributing to workplace exhaustion.  Now isn’t that special I say in my best Church lady voice… 

The key points are that 75% are living paycheck to paycheck, and that these young workers can’t deal with monotonous work…. What, you mean, work procedures that you do every day? Did your mommy tell you too many times that you’re special and that you will be President one day?   I could go on, but I won’t… Not today, anyway… 

The advanced trade deficit printed yesterday, and this part of the data print is always much higher than the final number, but the print yesterday was blown out of proportion… The Advanced Trade deficit was a record high of $162 Billion… Just for the month of March, as importers rushed their orders ahead of the tariffs… And exporters also rushed their orders on the same basis… But, as we all know, we as a country import way more than we export… It will be interesting to look at the final number here… I’m just saying…

One currency I want to highlight this morning, is the Chinese renminbi… The Chinese have allowed the renminbi to strengthen VS the dollar…. The Chinese are very prudent about their currency moves, so they must be telling us something… I guess we’ll know when it hits us like V-8 forehead slap! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today already printed the 1st QTR GDP, and it wasn’t pretty at just .3%, in case you read that number wrong… Its   0.3%, and in my opinion, that’s a rounding error from going negative!  The ADP Employment Report for April printed this morning already too… And it showed that only 62,000 jobs were added in the month…  That’s not very good total folks… And is trending the wrong way, as last month’s print was a paltry 147,000…  In just a bit of time, Consumer Income and Spending sill print for March… And the PCE will print for March…So, a very busy day for the economic data wonks… 

To recap… The dollar is getting sold, but Gold is too… And Chuck thinks he has figured out what’s goining on there… Copper has gotten mixed up in the short selling, UGH!  The price of Oil has gotten sold too… While the 10-year Treasury has been getting bought… Chuck goes off the rails with the younger workers… And the Chinese renminbi has surprised currency traders with its strength… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, since I made Big deal about the Advanced Trade Deficit, I thought I would let zerohedge.co elaborate on it a bit here… This article can be found here: Tariff-Frontrunning Sends US Trade Deficit To New Record High In March | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in March to a record as companies continued importing goods to get ahead of tariffs.

The shortfall in goods trade grew 9.6% from a month earlier to $162 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday.

Imports rose 5% to $342.7 billion, led by consumer goods, while exports increased 1.2% as firms scrambled to get ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs…

Imports of consumer goods surged 27.5%, while inbound shipments of motor vehicles and capital goods also increased.

Because this is the ‘advance’ data release, there is no data for individual nation trade balances or how gold imports have shifted. Remember, gold imports had been soaring through February…and blowing up economists’ models of GDP growth.

What we do know is that gold inventories at COMEX have been falling in March, suggesting a slowdown in imports… which will juice GDP forecasts (further confounding all the PhDs).

Finally, we note that Tuesday’s Commerce Department report also showed stockpiles at wholesalers increased 0.5%. Retail inventories fell 0.1% last month, reflecting a decline at car dealers.”

Chuck Again…  like I said above it will be interesting to see what the final trade deficit print will look like… I believe it will print near to a record deficit for a month… I’m just saying

Market Prices 4/30/2025: American Style: A$ .6374, kiwi .5908, C$ .7227, euro 1.1369, sterling 1.3352. Swiss $1.1818, European Style; rand 18.6101, krone 10.4052, SEK 9.6587, forint 355.43, zloty 3.7685, koruna 21.9192, RUB 81.28, yen 142.74, sing 1.3069, HKD 7.7664, INR 84.49, China 7.2714, peso 19.57, BRL 5.6287, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar index 99.47, Oil $59.62, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $32.74, Platinum $978.00. Palladium $958.00, Copper $4.55, and Gold… $3,303.18

That’s it for today…  Not much to report from the Cardiologist visit yesterday, he did tell me that my recent relapse of weakness was a result of me going to fast, to slow down on my rehab…  I said, “yes sir!”  He said my heart was just fine! Ok, so I moved on from there… I don’t know how long this is going to take, and I’m a very impatient person… So, that’s that!  My beloved Cardinals play a doubleheader in Cincy today, that is if the rain stays away… We had some monstrous thunder this morning… April is holding on as long as it can with all this rain… Peter Frampton takes us to the finish line with his solo song: Show Me The Way… Did you know that Peter Frampton had the best-selling live album in 1976?  What a great album!  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler