Category: Uncategorized

• The dollar continues to benefit from POTUS talk
• The short sellers rule the metals these days…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What an ordeal coming back home last night… We were the last to aboard our connecting flight from BNA to STL and had to hustle to get there!  Everyone on the plane already, had eyes on me as I got down the aisle to my seat. I know what they were thinking… “What took you so long to get here?”  Well, if one of them had the intestinal fortitude to ask me, I would have said… “The airport that didn’t have a gate for us when we landed and sat out on the tarmac for 20 minutes”  Eddie Floyd greets me this morning with his 60’s classic: Knock On Wood…

Well, the rally that the dollar is currently in continued to keep the lights on as the POTUS keeps mentioning that Iran is running out of time… And that keeps the risk off mode for the markets, and that means that the dollar gets bought, and Gold gets sold….  The BBDXY ended yesterday at 1,203. The dollar isn’t running away but it’s still getting bought by pieces… 

Gold got sold yesterday, by the SPT’s and the naysayers, short-timers, and the folks that just don’t get the real reason to own Gold…. Silver also lost ground yesterday and ended the day below $74… OUCH, now that’s going to leave a mark!   Gold ended the day down $84 and close at $4,482… 

The price of Oil continues to be strong, with Oil closing yesterday with a $104 handle, (it was up to $106 during the day, but closed at $104).

And the 10-year Treasury closed yesterday at 4.67% yield…  Remember bond yields up=bond prices down… The bond boys waited a bit before reacting to Moodys announcement last Friday, that they were reducing the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA to AA1…  

This means, and it’s the first time ever to happen, that all three rating agencies have reduced the U.S.’s credit rating… S&P, Fitch, and Moodys are all singing from the same song sheet…  This is HUGE folks… I think that it this new overall rating for the U.S. will affect foreign buying of Treasuries… And do you know what the main reason for Moodys to cut their credit rating for the U.S.?  Well, if you said, “The interest payments on our debt is growing too fast” then you win the stuffed Teddy Bear!  No, wait! I don’t have a stuffed Teddy Bear to give away… No worries, I just issue a “TBD” to be delivered…  

In the overnight markets last night… not much movement in the dollar overnight… The BBDXY starts where it ended yesterday at 1,203… Gold is up to start the day $17 and Silver is up $2.27… So, far so good… But the wolf is always at the door… And that’s the SPT’s…   Copper rebounded from yesterday’s 12-cent sell off by the SPT’s, and Copper’s rebound is good for Silver…  

The price of Oil has slipped overnight to trade this morning with a $102 handle, and the 10-year also saw some slippage in its yield overnight as it starts today with a 4.64% yield…  Bonds are really on the selling blocks these days… I’m just saying… 

Where’s the beef? Remember those two ladies asking the question, Where’s the Beef?  Well, I can tell you that the Beef isn’t on the table for many Americans as the price continues to rise for Beef…

This from Wolf Richter: “Ground beef: The average price of ground beef, 100% beef (excluding round, chuck, sirloin, and preformed patties) spiked by 3.0% in April from March, and by 18.9% year-over-year to a record $6.90 per pound, according to the detailed CPI data from the BLS. Since January 2020, the price has shot up 78%.”

OMG! 78% in the last 26 years? That’s crazy folks! No wonder my favorite ¼ pounder with cheese is so darn expensive these days! 

Well, here’s something that scary…  And I used to run a margin dept in a regional brokerage so I know a thing or two about margin….. But that’s not the scary thing… The scary thing is that margin debt keeps rising and is now more than 5% of the GDP…   That’s HUGE folks…  And when all the major hedge funds, pension funds, insurance funds, mutual funds, etc. figure out that rising yields normally bring about a shift in allocations from stock to bonds, all that margin debt will be getting what they call “margin calls” and if they can’t pay cash or deposit more stocks to increase their market value, they will face stocks getting sold to meet the “call”…  More selling will beget more selling, etc.   I’m just saying…

Well, life as they knew it for farmers is changing, yet again…  This from Reuters.com; “Soaring costs of fuel and commercial fertilizer, opens new tab in ‌the wake of the Iran war are making hard times worse for farmers across the U.S. Plains states of Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Nebraska.

Even before the war, farmers were struggling with a resurgent drought, high input costs, and the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which hobbled export markets and drove down prices for their crops.

Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the cost of farm diesel has climbed 72%, the Kentucky Farm Bureau wrote in prepared testimony to a U.S. Senate agriculture committee hearing this month. Prices for ​urea, one of the major fertilizers produced in the Gulf region, were up 55%, while prices for another nitrogen-based fertilizer rose 33%, the farmers’ group said.

And yet, because of the drought, farmers are looking at the prospect of ​smaller harvests to pay for it all.”

Chuck Again… Consequences… That’s the bugaboo that no one thinks about before they partake in an activity… 

The Bank of Japan, as I reported in a previous Pfennig, intervened with tons of their dollar reserves to defend the yen the last time that yen looked ready to become a lemming and jump off a cliff…  But, as I’ve always contended, that intervention is a short-term aid for a currency, but as soon as the bloom Is off the rose, the currency goes right back to where the markets feel it should be… I’ve used this line plenty of times in the past, and that is that: The Markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank…  And yen is right back at 159 and looking strangely like a lemming once more…

The Petrol currencies are hanging in there VS the dollar… Led by the Russian ruble trading with a 71 handle, and the Norwegian krone trading with a 9.27 figure… it’s good to “be known for something”, and the Petrol Currencies have their association to the price of Oil as their “something”…  And in the case of the Norwegian krone, they are also known as the richest country in the world… I would suggest that being known for that is a very good thing!

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting for the markets to review… I guess we’ll see for sure just how many Fed Heads balked at keeping rates unchanged…. The next FOMC meeting will be run by new Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Kevin Warsh… We’ll see how popular he is the POTUS after he had to hike rates, maybe not at his first meeting but by his second meeting, inflation will be soaring, and once again the Fed Heads will be behind the inflation 8-ball… and trying to play catchup, but I’ll be singing to them: too much, too little, too late…. 

To recap… yesterday saw lots of sellers of all kinds in Gold & Silver…  it was an ugly day for the metals, as the POTUS keeps the hopers and dreamers out there satisfied with his comments that Iran is running out of time… That keeps the risk off trading on the table and that means the dollar gets bought and Gold gets sold… And Chuck is questioning the intestinal fortitude of the masses… 

For What It’s Worth… What to do about Gold? I hear some of you saying that it has run its course… but I wouldn’t be too fast to unload it because of this article on Bloomberg.com; Goldman Says Central Banks Want More Gold for Their Reserves – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Central banks are expected to step up gold-buying, helping prices to recover by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Purchases are expected to pick up to average 60 tons a month over 2026, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note dated May 15. Under a revised framework for estimated accumulation, the 12-month moving average of purchases was 50 tons in March, up from a prior figure of 29.

For central banks, there’s “strong underlying interest in gold, and recent geopolitical developments are likely to reinforce diversification,” the analysts said, citing an in-house survey, without giving details.

Gold has struggled since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, as higher energy costs have raised worldwide inflationary pressures, making central banks less likely to ease policy. With no end to the conflict in sight, global bond markets have sold off, putting pressure on non-yielding gold..

Still, Goldman was cautious near term. Gold is “a natural source of cash if private investors face liquidity needs — for example, if equity markets sell off amid higher rates and weaker growth expectations,” the analysts said.

Goldman’s methodology for estimating central-bank buying had rested in part on assumptions based on flows seen in UK trade data. It was updated as the figures may “no longer fully reflect” shifts, the analysts said.

Among central banks, the People’s Bank of China bought the most gold in over a year in April, boosting holdings by 260,000 troy ounces. That was the 18th month of additions, matching a streak that began in late 2022.”

Chuck Again… Remember… What Lola Wants… Lola gets…  and for longtime readers of the Pfennig they well know that I call Goldman Sachs… Lola… 

Market Prices 5/20/2026: American Style: A$ .7127, kiwi .5846, C$ .7268, euro 1.1602, sterling 1.3462, Swiss $1.2642, European Style: rand 165934, krone 9.2781, SEK 9.3850, forint 311.20, zloty 3.6664, koruna 20.9560 RUB 71.14, yen 159.60, sing 1.2803, HKD 7.8330, INR 96.82, China 6.8037, peso 17.36, BRL 5.0482, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 98.35, Oil $102.10, 10-year 4.64%, Silver $75.09, Platinum $1,951.00, Palladium $1,398.00, Copper 6.24, and Gold… $4,499

That’s it for today… Geez, I looked at the calendar yesterday and noticed that this coming weekend will be Memoria Day weekend, with Monday being Memorial Day… Unbelievable that time is going by so fast! And then we’ll be heading to June!  June is a good and bad month for me… Chuck & Kathy got married in June… this will mark 50 years this year…. God that’s a long time! And the middle of June will mark 19-years since by good friend, and Doctor Jeff, showed up at the front door looking as white as a ghost, and told me I had cancer…. So, good and bad, and I’ll let you decide which is which… HA!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar goes on the warpath…
• Bonds get routed…

Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! How was your weekend? Mine was pretty low-key, but we tried a new restaurant, and it was good! My beloved Cardinals had an OK weekend VS the Royals, winning  2 of 3 games… I will travel back to Missouri tomorrow, so no Pfennig… I’ll be back in the saddle at home on Wednesday, so look for me then! The Allman Brothers greet me this morning with their song: Blue Sky… 

Well, the dollar had a banner day on Friday with the BBDXY gaining over 5 index points and ending the week at 1,202… I have to think that the markets were trying to think ahead at what might happen in Iran on Friday… You see, the POTUS was on his way back to the states, and the peace Accord had ended… So, the markets thought that on Friday night the U.S. would resume the war, as to not shift the markets one way or the other…  Well, that didn’t happen, and now it we will wait and see if the markets put the dollar back in its underlying weak trend, or not…  So, much for their attempt to read the tea leaves!

Gold and Silver got whacked! It was an ugly day for the metals, as all the metals, including Platinum, Palladium and Copper all saw major short selling… Gold lost $111  on the day to finish the week at $4,539; Silver lost $7.52 on the day to finish the week at $75.84… Copper lost 32-cents on the day to finish the week at $6.30…  The short sellers made sure that I had to eat my words regarding Copper, didn’t they?   Yes, they did… 

The price of Oil saw its trader trade like the dollar traders did, in fear of another attack in Iran, and so they marked up the price of Oil to end the week at the $105 handle…  The 10-year Treasury saw its yield climb to 4.61% before settling at 4.59% yield to end the week… 

In the overnight markets last night… There wasn’t much movement in the asset classes… The dollar got sold a bit and the BBDXY starts today at 1,201… Gold is flat to up a buck in the early trading , and so is Silver, so far no SPT’s, but it’s early… The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $106 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher too and starts today with a 4.60% yield… 

I think the rout in bonds is putting pressure on the POTUS to get a deal done, soon… I have more on bonds in just  bit… 

Well, the next item to mark off the list of things seeing their prices and availability is motor Oil… Yes, you know the stuff you put in your engine. I immediately asked Kathy if her car back in Fenton was nearing an oil change… You see, Oil that’s used for base oil is seeing refiners capable of producing base oil prioritizing diesel output. ( I got that from Dave Gonigam’s 5 Bullets)  

So, is your car nearing an Oil change? Well, I would suggest that you get it into the shop and get it done, right away, for the price of motor Oil is going to go sky high, and availability is going to be a problem in the near future…  This public service announcement is brought to you by the Pfennig, and Battle Bank!

The currencies are getting hammered by the dollar right now, so batten down the hatches or crawl under a rock and forget about the dollar strength right now, as it’s not really strong… Just a brief rally, in my opinion, which I could be wrong, but I doubt it…  The underlying weak trend is in waiting for the dollar to return…  

I say, batten down the hatches, but… if you see something you like, this is the time to go out and buy it, because it’s cheap right now… So, if, for instance you see the Norwegian krone at 9.30 ish, and it was just at 9.10 a couple of days ago, then you see this as an opportunity to pick up some more krone and average price it is with your other krone… That’s what I could call “prudent buying”…  

Ok, enough of that! Well, rising yields in bonds have really done a number on Gold & Silver…. Along with the SPT’s, rising yields have always been a bugaboo for Gold… And this time is no different, however, without the SPT’s piling on, the losses for Gold would be much more watered down from where they are now…  I’m just saying…

Whenever I use the words “piling on” it sends chills down my back… I’ve told you this before, but here goes… Back when I was playing football in H.S. I went to tackle a punt returner near the other team’s sideline, and when I did, our momentum carried me into the bench, where it seemed the whole team piled on top of me, and started kicking me and I was smothering… That only lasted about 30 seconds, but it seemed like an eternity to me! And has stuck with me, all these years… 

Rising yields are vogue right now, and I think they will continue to rise as long as inflation continues to rise, and it will rise in my humble opinion… PPI told us as much last week, but if you don’t believe that PPI is a harbinger for higher consumer inflation, then check out our bills for groceries, gas, and giggles… They will tell you that higher inflation is already baked into the goods… 

Beyond  these rising yields, I drift back to the mid 70’s (and yes, I was in the business then, smart Alec!) inflation was soaring like it is now, and then stagflation set it, which is the scenario of high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy, and Gold rallied in the face of higher interest rates fighting inflation… So, it’s not out of the question if Gold can rally during higher interest rates… The problem here and now is that I’m probably one of the few that are still in the business that was around back then… They have no reference to compare today with yesteryear…  But they’ll figure it out, sooner or later, hopefully sooner, but they will figure it out, once inflation is soaring to new levels… 

The war in Iran isn’t doing Gold any favors right now either… I read this past weekend that Wall Street is seeing this as a rising yield and dollar story to fight Gold’s rise… What do they think about the U.S.’s situation regarding debt servicing? I mean I really do think we are heading to a recession and with our $39 Trillion national debt, it leaves government worse prepared for recession than ever, in my humble opinion… 

And the U.S. isn’t exactly cutting deficit spending, are they? I read this past weekend that the U.S. has already on the books, a deficit for 2026 of $954 Billion… They still have 5 months to go until their fiscal year ends, and don’t forget that the war deficits haven’t hit the books yet…  if the U.S. was a company, or individual they would have to declare bankruptcy or default by now…   

And the bond boys took to marking up the yield in the 30-year last week… Treasury long bond (30yr) yields jumped 18 bps this week to 5.12%, surpassing the October 2023 gilt crisis spike to the highest yield all the way back to (“still dancing”) July 2007. 

2007? Man, I had hair back then… I was smaller in size… I was just establishing myself as the “currency guru” (I was the only writer out there writing about currencies and Gold ) and the Great Recession was beginning…  I did a quick look at the songs in 2007, and it reminded me that I didn’t listen to new music then… I didn’t recognize any of the songs!  The Red Sox won in baseball and the Colts were the Super Bown Champions…  Man, that was a long time ago!

This dollar rally takes its toll on the usual subjects… The euro is first to succumb to the dollar pressure, and then the rest of the currencies follow the euro’s lead… Even with the price of Oil so high, the Petrol Currencies are seeing their respective currencies get sold…  But don’t lose faith in your diversification… This dollar rally will be brief, in my humble opinion, and then we’ll see unicorns fly across the sky, the beach will be full of shells, and the sun will be warm…  In other words, all will be right in the world again… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization to print on Friday and IP gained 0.7% for the month and CapU moved up to 76.1% from 75.5%…  I really think these were cooked books reports… I guess we’ll see later this summer when The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization in the autumn of 2026. So, they get to romp and rollick until August… I’m just saying… 

The other thing to think about with data reports is that they are all inflated… Take Retail Sales for instance: Everything that goes into calculating Retail Sales has seen HUGE upward price movements, so wonder Retail Sales looked strong…  Keep this in mind when you review data prints… 

To recap… It was an UGLY day for the metals on Friday, as Gold lost $111 and Silver lost $7.52  Usually when you see the metals go through a wash, rinse and spin cycle, the selling comes to an end and then the buying can begin again… So, the question is: has the SPT’s gone through their wash cycle yet? The dollar is getting bought because of the higher yields in bonds, but I think dollar traders will rue the day they bought dollars now… at a later date that is…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’m a true believer that foreign buyers are demanding higher yields at the Treasury auctions, and eventually they will get them… This is an article about the latest Treasury Auction and how things are going and can be found here: US Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off | Wolf Street

Or, here’s your snippet: “Longer-term Treasury yields spiked late this week as the second wave of inflation took on more substance with back-to-back inflation reports: CPI inflation soared by 3.8% year-over-year, driven by core services, gasoline, electricity, and food; and the measure that tracks inflation in prices companies pay each other, the Producer Price Index soared by 6.0% year-over-year as the services PPI blew out. Inflation in services is the biggie. Services account for over 60% of the economy, and inflation took off in services.

The 30-year Treasury bond sold at the auction on Wednesday at a yield of 5.046%. In the secondary market, the 30-year bond has traded over 5% from time to time in recent years, but this was the first time since 2007 that the 30-year bond actually sold at auction with a yield above 5%. And in the secondary market, the yield rose following the auction and ended on Friday at 5.12%, the highest since June 2007, having edged past the October 2023 high.

The long end of the Treasury market completely blew off the Fed’s rate cuts, as indicated by the widening gap, now 149 basis points, between the 30-year yield (5.12%) and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR, blue line) of 3.63%, which the Fed targets with its policy rates.

Higher bond yields in the market mean lower bond prices for existing holders.

The bond market is now fretting about a lax Fed that would “look through” the surge of this second wave of inflation for too long and, instead of getting serious about it, would proffer more excuses why no rate hikes were needed at this point. And the bond market is cutting the market price of those securities, which causes yields to rise.

The 10-year Treasury note sold at the auction on Tuesday at a yield of 4.468%. The yield then continued to rise in the secondary market, including by 11 basis points on Friday, to 4.60%, the highest since January 2025.

Longer-term yields reflect the bond market’s views of the future – especially the path of inflation as the second wave takes shape, amid the tsunami of supply of Treasuries to fund the ballooning deficits.”

Chuck Again… yes, the ballooning deficits of the U.S. will require greater Treasury issuances, and everyone will hold their collective breath until the whole auction is sold…  I’m just saying 

Market Prices 5/18/2026: American Style: A$ .7153, kiwi .5858, C$ .7267, euro 1.1634, sterling 1.3356, Swiss $1.2730, European Style: rand 16.6746, krone 9.2955, SEK 9.4348, forint 310.69, zloty 3.6615, koruna 20.9146, RUB 72.51, yen 158.92, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.8308, INR 96.35, China 6.8009, peso 17.32, BRL 5.0556, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 99.18, Oil $106.45, 10-year 4.60%, Silver $75.99, Platinum $1,972.00, Palladium $1.472.00, Copper $6.25, and Gold… $4,540

That’s it for today and until Wednesday… I don’t care for short trips to my winter home, I just get settled into the flow here, and it’s time to go home… UGH! But I do like the different restaurants we have down here, like we tried a new one the other night and it was delightful! I think the Pfennig was quite long today, so you’ll have a lot to take in while I’m gone tomorrow! The Friends of Distinction take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Grazing In The Grass… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself… 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts on Tuesday
• But rallied overnight on the rise in the STUPID CPI!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals moved their traveling baseball show to Sacramento, Calif, for last night’s game, which started way too late for me, so when I woke up in the middle of the night, as I always do, I checked to see the outcome of the game, and saw that the Cardinals won 6-4… I did see the first 2 innings before retiring and the Cardinals posted a 4 spot on the A’s in the 1^st innning! Van Morrison greets me this morning with his song: And It Stoned Me… 

The dollar tried to go higher in the BBDXY yesterday, but by the end of the day it was back to 1,1192, its beginning price… and Gold & Silver continued the “getting sold short” day that began with Gold down $45 and Silver down $1.94… They ended the day at $4,717 and Silver at $86.44… So, the SPT’s tried to take the two down on the day, but the physical buying overwhelmed the SPT’s and put them in their place!

The price of Oil gained another buck and ended the day at $1.02, and the 10-year saw its yield rise to 4.45%…  No Fed/ Cabal/Cartel yield control in operation yesterday…

In the overnight markets last night… the STUPID CPI rising yesterday caused the dollar to gain a bit overnight, with the BBDXY starting the day at 1,194…  More on the STUPID CPI in a minute… The dollar is a creature of habit with traders buying it on the stupidest ideas!  But, there you go!  

The price of Gold saw more short selling overnight, and is down $19 to start our day today, while Silver, which had reached its 50-day moving avg with yesterday’s gains, is also seeing some selling but is up 19-cents to start the day…  I would have thought that Gold would react to the rise in the STUPID CPI, but then so did the SPT’s so they made sure Gold stayed down below its 50-day avg… 

Open Interest in the two metals are vapors right now, and when Gold and Silver were running to their recent highs, I said that the Open Interest falling wasn’t a problem… But now, that the two metals are looking for any gains they can muster, having a strong Open Interest would certainly help…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil dipped back to a $101 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw it’s yield rise by 1 bp to 4.46%

Well, yesterday the STUPID CPI for April printed… And even with their hedonic adjustments the year on year consumer inflation was 3.8%…  and that rise in the STUPID CPI was responsible for the markets, once again, reviewing their outlooks for rate movements from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel…I really can’t believe that the markets still go for this STUPID CPI… But they do, and so therefore I have to… UGH!

The POTUS is in China now, and hopefully he can get the Chinese to use their influence in Iran to get them to honestly come to the negotiating table… and maybe, just maybe, he’ll allow the Chinese to sell their automobiles here in the U.S.    I doubt it, but we can wish that a cheaper option to car buying is available. 

I’m at wits end trying to figure out why the dollar gets bought when it appears that the war is going to continue… But I have to say, it is, what it is..  And that’s that!

I know, I know the old safe haven talk plays here, but not in my mind, the dollar should be sold down the river for this incursion… And the fact that the U.S. has a major debt problem, that’s not going away… And they have a debt servicing nut that’s not going to get turned in their favor…  But don’t let these two problems get in the way of a dollar rally…  I shake my head in disbelief…

Well, inflation here in the U.S. has reached a 3-year high, and it’s not going to get any lower in the near future… I truly feel that consumer inflation is not 3.8% but more like 8-9%…  With everything under the sun and moon seeing price increases…

The real culprit is money supply… as money supply grows so does inflation, and dont’ be of the belief that this is inflation is something that can’t be avoided… Inflation is a Government phenomenon brought on by increased money supply… I found this on money supply: Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 22442.10 USD Billion in January from 22366.20 USD Billion in December of 2025. Money Supply M2 in the United States averaged 5745.38 USD Billion from 1959 until 2026, reaching an all-time high of 22686.00 USD Billion in March of 2026 and a record low of 286.60 USD Billion in January of 1959. 

So, you see the hard facts that Money Supply has reached an all-time high in March of this year, and it’s not going to get any smaller going forward, with a war going on…. I’m just saying…

I’ve got to talk about something other than money supply and inflation.. Well, the Chinese renminbi continues to be allowed to gaining VS the dollar and yesterday it reached a 6.79 handle which it hadn’t been since Feb of 2023…  I recall when I first talked the people at EverBank to allow us to offer Chinese renminbi deposits, back in the mid 90’s, the renminbi to the dollar was around 8.5…  So, we’ve come a long way baby! And there’s more to go! 

One of these days, China will gain a very wide distribution of their currency and then they can overtake the euro as the offset currrency to the dollar… This is just one of my thoughts, I don’t claim to know more than anyone else about this, just a thought that I have regarding where the world is leaning these days…

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI yesterday, that I talked about above.. Today’s Data Cupboard has PPI (wholesale inflation ) for April and that’s usually a good indicator of what we will see in the future with the STUPID CPI…  Tomorrow’s Cupboard will have the Retail Sales from April, and the BHI (Butler Household Index) tells us that with even with Easter Sales, we should see a weaker Retail Sales figure…

For What It’s Worth…Well, my friends Rich and Michael Checkan over at Asset Strategies do what they call an information line, and Rich does the writing… And his information line last Thursday was a keeper and I have it for you here: Information Line – May 2026

Or, here’s your snippet: n 2022, central banks started buying gold in a meaningful way. They purchased over 1,000 metric tons that year. They did it again in 2023. They did it again in 2024. Last year, they purchased 860 metric tons.

Prior to 2022, and going back fifty years, the annual high-water mark for central bank gold buying was 500 to 600 metric tons.

All that buying had an impact on the gold price… $1,700… $2,400… $3,000… and earlier this year… $5,500.

The buying started when interest rates were near zero. The buying continued as governments around the world raised interest rates in order to subdue inflation. (The peak for the United States was 5.25%.) The buying continued as interest rates were cut, starting in late 2024.

The buying continues now with U.S. interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Yet, over the past four years, every time I hear a discussion about the gold price, I hear the following phrase uttered in some form or fashion…

“Higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, making the yellow metal a less attractive alternate investment than other assets.”

The suggestion is basically that gold simply cannot move higher in price unless the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.

I could not disagree more.

All FED Up

I believe we give the Federal Reserve way too much credit.

I am not doubting the Federal Reserve is made up of brilliant economists who mean well. However, I do doubt that they have the understanding and the tools to drive inflation down to their target of 2%.

We may cover that at another time.

Today, I want to address my biggest frustration with all this hype about what the Federal Reserve will or will not do with interest rates. That is, at these levels, it should have no impact on the price of gold whatsoever.

The current Fed Funds Rate is 3.5% to 3.75%.

The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.01%.

That means, if you could get your bank to pay you the effective funds rate of 3.5% – which you probably cannot – your Real Rate of Return on your term deposit would be one half of one percent.

That is it… a rounding error!”

Chuck again… yes, the article is longer than the snippet, so if you have the time, please check out the article in its entirety at the link above…

Market prices 5/13/2026: American Style: A$ .7245, kiwi .5929, C$ .7304, euro 1.1709, sterling 1.3503, Swiss $1.2709, European Style: rand 16.3449, krone 9.1745, SEK 9.3815, forint 307.01, zloty 3.6307, koruna 20.7942, RUB 73.32, yen 157.83, sing 1.2725, HKD 7.8313, INR 95.19, China 6.7914, peso 17.23, BRL 4.8926, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 98.53, Oil $101.92, 10-year 4.46%, Silver $87.01, Platinum $2,136.00, Palladium $1,515.00, Copper $6.49, and Gold… $4,697

That’s it for today… I watched the Cubs play the Braves for a while yesterday, and found that if the Cardinals aren’t playing these games can’t hold my attention very long… Now, if I was there at the ballpark watching live baseball, I would be all over it! Yesterday was a non-event day for yours truly, as I didn’t even make it out to the deck to read! Everything just seemed to work out slower for me yesterday…  time to get on the run… The Amboy Dukes takes us to the finish line today with their song: Journey To The Center Of Your Mind…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver have banner days on Friday…
• But the STPS were back on Monday…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, did you get a kick out of my Friday Pfennig featuring Frank Trotter? Well, if you got ½ of the kick that I got from his writing, then you were a happy camper! Did all the mothers have a grand Mother’s Day?   I certainly hope so… I really found that I missed my mom on Sunday, and had to do something to get me out of the funk I was in…  And having the kids over did the trick! The Cranberries greet me this morning with their song: Linger…  (I love the singer, Dolores O’Riordan, and its sad that she’s no longer with us) 

Before I get on the markets, economies and dolts this morning, I wanted to share this with you…  When I was a young man I dreamed of flying cars… hey! The Jetsons had them! I always thought that by now we would have flying cars. So, it warmed my heart to see this on 1440: 

“Morgan Stanley estimates the flying car market could reach $9 trillion by 2050. What’s changing now is that governments are beginning to invest in the infrastructure to support it.

Florida has officially launched state funding for vertiports, creating real infrastructure for electric aircraft to operate. As a Florida-based company, Doroni is positioned directly within one of the first regions actively building toward this new transportation layer.”

Chuck again… Wahoo! I can’t wait to see the first flying car in action!

OK, Ed Steer had such a great explanation as to what happened to the Metals on Thursday, so let’s listen in: “It was patently obvious that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe/’da boyz’ intervened in the gold & silver space starting at the 11:00 a.m. EDT London close — and then didn’t let up for the rest of the day.

That was all aided and abetted by that phony baloney DXY ‘rally’ that began at the same moment…so this was obviously a well-coordinated assault on these two precious metals, plus their associated equities.

Not only did they close gold back below $4,700 spot…they stopped silver 2 cents shy of $82 spot — and then closed it well below $79 by the time they were done with it.”

Chuck again… So, we had a day where the SPT’s were nonexistent on Wednesday, but came back with a vengeance on Thursday… I just shake my head in disgust at these guys…  BTW you can find Ed Steer Here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

So, Gold ended the week at $4716 and Silver at $80.47… They were both up on Friday, so at least they had a positive week… 

The dollar ended the week down for the week at 1,187… As the war continued with shot fired back and forth in the Strait of Hormuz…  The price of Oil ended the week with a $94 handle, and the 10-year ended the week with a 4.36% yield… 

On Monday, while I was traveling, the dollar the STP’s must have been asleep at the wheel, as Gold and Silver rallied without governors… Gold gained $20 on the day, and Silver was the BIG Winner, gaining $5.75… For Silver it looked like a short squeeze…  Gold ended Monday at $4,734 and Silver at $85.95… 

The dollar didn’t react to the no Peace Agreement and ended the day with the BBDXY at 1,189… 

The price of Oil gained a buck and ended the day at $101, and the 10-year saw its yield climb higher to 4.43%

In the overnight markets last night… the no Peace Agreement meant the war was back on and the dollar got bought… I read a piece this weekend where the writer was scratching his head over the fact that the dollar rallies on war and gets sold on peace… Same thing I’ve been scratching my bald head over for weeks now! So, the BBDXY starts today up to 1,192… and Gold and Silver is seeing the SPTS’s wake up and begin selling short the two metals to make up for being asleep at the wheel yesterday…  Gold is down $45 and Silver is down $2.94…  Up one day and down the next… UGH!

The price of Oil remained in the $101 handle overnight and the 10-year saw a bit of buying but not enough to move the yield from 4.43%..

Well, the major media outlets are finally getting the picture… This from Fortune.com: “The $39 trillion debt is set to surpass its postwar peak—and the math says Washington can’t simply cut its way out”

The debts of WW2 had grown to 106% of GDP in 1946… By the time that Truman left office in 1953, Congress had cut enough to get the debt in order…   The Debt was such a number so large that policymakers spent a generation treating it as the high-water mark of what the country could survive. But they did it, and notice that the cuts didn’t have debt added to them like they do these days… 

I bring this up because the debt has gone past our GDP again…  And it (the debt) will continue to grow larger as the interest on our debt takes up most of the tax receipts…  I just keep warning about this growth of our debt, and I’ve been doing just that since the mid 90’s…  But has anyone from Congress done anything about it? The Fed/Cabal/Cartel, Treasury and Congress are in this together with each one responsible for parts of the debt growth…  I say, end the Fed/Cabal/Cartel, throw all the representatives out, and put governors on the Treasury!  

Boy, for being in one of my favorite places to be, I’m sure in a feisty mood this morning… Well, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet! Just kidding… Frank Trotter was busy last week as he wrote the piece on diversification for the Pfennig, and then he turned around and wrote a piece on Gold for the Asset Strategies web site…  here’s a piece of his writing on Gold: “There is the old saying that gold cannot be printed. Supply constraints are not an artifact of sentiment; they are geological fact. When fiat currency expands at will, a fixed-supply asset does not merely hold value — it appears to appreciate relative to the currency that is being diluted. In reality of course the value of gold holds relatively steady while the value of US dollar has declined.”

You can find the entire piece he wrote, which I might say that you should, but I don’t want to be bossy, at Asset Strategies International’s web site: Asset Strategies International. Precious Metals and Rare Tangible Assets

At Battle Bank, Frank had a devised a way for you to margin your Gold… In other words, get a loan with Gold as your collateral… It’s genius and I wonder where this type of margin wasn’t thought of before now…  So, Kudos to my good friend, and former Big Boss , Frank Trotter…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday last week had the Jobs Jamboree and it was surprisingly greater in jobs created than the forecasters had forecast… But… And that’s a Big But, (but don’t tell that person!)  The BLS was up to their old tricks as they added 394,000 jobs to the surveys (They’ll have to erase those at a later date, but for now, the markets have swallowed the bait, hook, line and sinker… 

I thought that by removing the old head of the BLS and replacing him with someone new that these shenanigans would stop, but the BLS is the same old book cooking, back massaging, and creator of jobs out of air that they have always been…  I shake my head in disgust!

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had Existing Home Sales, and they were awful… I’ll just say that and point to a previous Pfennig when I asked the question about another housing problem….  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The SPT’s were asleep at the wheel yesterday and the metals all kicked tail and took names later… But today, they have been awakened and the SPT’s are back to selling the metals short…  The dollar is getting bought this morning on the news that the war is still going on… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, after all that tough stuff in this letter today, I have a brief note here on the Gold at Fort Knox and what the POTUS thinks about it, and it can be found here: Trump still wants to crack open Fort Knox to personally confirm $700B gold cache has not been stolen

Or, here’s your snippet: “The president revealed that he’s still eager to crack open Fort Knox and personally ensure that the nation’s gold reserve — valued at nearly $700 billion — is still in the highly secure bullion depository following an uproar about it last year.

“We wanted to go and knock on the door of Fort Knox — a very thick door — and to see whether or not we have any gold in there,” Trump told “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson” in an interview that dropped Sunday.

The gold stash in the uber-secure Kentucky facility accounts for half of the government’s gold supply.

It’s not fully clear when the facility last went through a comprehensive audit.

“It’s a very interesting question. We played with that. I wonder if they left the gold in Fort Knox, because they steal a lot,” the president mused. “I do want to go to Fort Knox sometime.”

“I want to see if the gold is there, which I’m sure it will be.”

Access to its vaults has been heavily restricted for decades.”

Chuck again… this is crazy folks…. I personally think that instead of all the Gold bars that supposed to be there, in their place will be slips of paper that tells us who the Gold was swapped with… But that’s just me, and I’m a bit of a conspiracy person… 

Market Prices 5/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7225, kiwi .5950, C$ .7295, euro 1.1745, sterling 1.3619, Swiss $1.2805, European Style: rand 16.5364, krone 9.1490, SEK 9.2749, forint 303.59, zloty 3.6159, koruna 20.7135, RUB 73.80, yen 157.55, sing 1.2728, HKD 7.8293, INR 95.63, China 6.7935, peso 17.24, BRL 4.8914, BBDXY 1,192, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $101.56, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $83.29, Platinum $2,073.00, Palladium $1,496.00, Copper $6.49, and Gold… $4,591

That’s if for today… Well, I hope all the moms out there had a wonderful Mother’s Day… At the Butler House all the kids were there minus Alex, but Grace was there in his place!  We sat outside and enjoyed the day.. (except the Cardinals blowing the game in the bottom of the 9th! UGH!) Well, I’m back in my winter home for the week, it was great to not feel cold when I got off the plane!  I did get so see Alex at the airport as he and his friends were getting ready to get on the plane we just got off of! Jethro Tull takes us to the finish line today with his song: Locomotive Breath… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Fantastico Friday to one and all! I know, I know it’s Friday and there’s normally no Pfennig today, but… I have a special treat for you today! And I couldn’t wait until next Tuesday, for Monday, I’m traveling to my winter home for a week…  As you all are aware, Battle Bank is my new home for the Pfennig… 

And Frank Trotter is the President of Battle Bank and the man responsible for moving me over to his Bank! So, the team is back together again!  Well, Frank wrote a piece for the Pfennig, and I decided that it will be a special Friday edition of the pfennig… So, here’s Frank;

Way back in 1995 Chuck and I were on the International Markets Trading Desk at Mark Twain Banks.  Chuck was the head of Trading, and I made mostly unsuccessful attempts to herd the cats.

It was a sophisticated bond shop.  Over on the domestic side they were trading complex mortgage-backed issues and providing advise to firms well above our mid-size bank.

On our International Markets desk we were certainly the only firm we knew of focused on providing retail investors the opportunity to diversify outside the US dollar in WorldCurrency™ deposits and bonds.

Back then, the US 10-Year Treasury wasn’t just a benchmark—it was the undisputed king of the world. 👑

Best credit.  Pretty much the lowest borrowing rates.  “Risk-Free Rate”

If you wanted to buy debt in Australia, Canada, or the UK, you weren’t just looking at the coupon and currency; you were looking at the spread to the US 10-year.

In 1995, the US 10Y yielded around 6.57%. But look at some of the alternatives:

Australia was paying a massive +249 bps premium

The UK’s 10-year was 1.69% higher than the US.

Italy? They were paying a staggering 560, 5.60% higher than the US.

In those days, the US was the ultimate “Safe Haven.” Our fiscal house was perceived as the sturdiest on the block, and the rest of the world had to offer significantly higher yields just to compete for capital.

The US budget was headed for a surplus.

For those of you unfamiliar with the term “surplus” that means that the US would collect more revenue than it spent.  Of course, there were still off-income statement obligations but just imagine.

Fast forward 30 years to 2026.

The script has flipped in a way few of us on that 1995 desk would have believed. Many, maybe most “major” economies now have lower borrowing rates than the US.

What changed?

One administration after another piled on the debt and ran increasingly larger deficits.  Social programs, the military-industrial complex that Eisenhauer was so correct about, and now the interest payments are about to become the largest budget item.

Naturally I was delighted with the various tax cuts – the chance for smaller government and all that.  But each tax cut came with a spending increase.  Not the right way to run a business, and especially a national treasury.

The bond market just trades value as they see it.  What does relative inflation look like in the country?  What’s the fiscal situation?  What are the prospects for growth?  How much does the country need to borrow?

The traders add it all up and there’s a number in their head.  Millions of participants voting with a buy or a sell.  

With a ballooning national debt and a shifting global landscape, the US Treasury is no longer the benchmark it once was. We aren’t the ones demanding a premium anymore; we are the ones paying it to keep the lights on. 📉

When you look at the 1995 spreads compared to 2026, you don’t just see numbers—you see the story of a deteriorating financial lead. The “Risk-Free Rate” is feeling a lot more “Risk” than it used to.

Today of course this has all changed.  Pulling 10-year Treasury yields from Thursday (check for an update in today’s financial press):

US                             4.34%

Canada               3.49%

Germany             2.99%

Italy                         3.71% – seriously, Italy

Switzerland      0.32%

Of course there are a few with higher rates.

UK 4.92%, Australia 4.92%, and places like Brazil, Mexico, India and others where investors need serious incentive to provide a loan.

It’s our viewpoint that over the next decade it’s likely that the US dollar will decline.  I didn’t say crash.  I didn’t say become irrelevant.  Just decline.

Last year overall it fell about 10%.

These days people are apparently uninterested in double digit returns and it appears the market is overlooking the impact of currency moves.  After all there’s the stock market that seems to be headed to the moon.  Precious metals, which I suspect most of you reading the Pfennig hold, are skyrocketing.

But a word to the wise.  Double digit returns ,if they were to continue, can compound nicely to double in just over 7 years.  Sounds like a nice compartment in a diversified portfolio.

Obviously, I should disclose that each of these items can decline and these investments aren’t suitable for everyone.  Maybe the rest of the world falls apart.  Maybe something like the current war in Iran becomes World War III – who knows?  Also, precious metals are not FDIC insured and both foreign currencies and precious metals can lose value due to market price adjustments.

If you are interested in exploring alternatives for your portfolio, along with learning about the risks head over to Battle Bank where we give you can explore the opportunity to invest in precious metals and over 20 foreign currencies.  Of course there’s a downside to all these investments so consider that carefully before taking action.  I’m just a guy that works at Battle Bank and these aren’t necessarily the opinion of the bank.

Home

Chuck Again… Thank you, thank you, thank you (in my best Gomer Pyle voice ) Frank for this piece… I had extended an offer to Frank some months ago that any time he felt like writing; to just fire it off to me and I’ll use it!

That’s it for today… make sure you are on Battle Bank’s waitlist…  They will take care of you! I personally know several of the employees at Battle Bank, and they are great!Little Feat take us to the finish line today with their song: Dixie Chicken… (the live version!)  Now, go out and have a Fantastico Friday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler (With Frank Trotter)

• the dollar gets sold on Wednesday…
• The Chinese want a financial war with the dollar

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin Thursday to one and all! One of these days outlook will accept that I call today a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, as it tells me each week that I spelled Thumpin’ wrong…. Technology… What is a poor boy to do? Well, my beloved Cardinals lost their day game VS the Brewers yesterday. They finished the home stand and now head to San Diego… Good luck Redbirds! The Outsiders greet me this morning with their song: Time Won’t Let Me…

Speaking of time… I had a ton of notes for today’s Pfennig and this morning when I went to my drafts, they weren’t there! Gone! So, this will be a bit later this morning, as now I have to start fresh! Well, kind-a-fresh, I’m still sleepy this morning!

Yesterday morning everything was going the right way (except oil and the 10-year) with the dollar down 9 index points in the BBDXY,  and Gold & Silver soaring… But, as the day went along, there was some tweaking and Gold ended the day up $133 to close at $4,792, and Silver was up $4.53, to close at $77.24… and the BBDXY closed the day at 1,188 down 6 index points… Not as bad as it started the day, but still down by a good margin… 

Oil Traders were all over the board yesterday, with the price of Oil driving higher to $96 at one point in the day, after it was announced that there would be no more Navy guidance of ships through the Strait of Hormuz…  And that’s where it closed the day at $96

The 10-year Treasury has seen different sentiment this week, after seeing its yield climb to over 4.40% (And the 30-year over 5%) it has seen a different sentiment and now ended the day with a 4.35%…

In the overnight markets last night… It was announced last night by the POTUS that a peace deal is close… And that sent the price of Oil back down to start the day at a $91 handle. And the 10-year has seen another drop in its yield and starts today at 4.33%

The dollar overnight saw a bit of selling and the BBDXY lost 1 index point to start the day today… And Gold is up $43 to start our day today, and Silver is up $3.45… Silver is really playing catch-up these last two days, and makes me nervous as the SPTs are seeing this and waiting to pounce… I close my eye and I can see them lurking in the dark alley, just waiting for the right time to pounce on Silver…  I’m just saying…

Yesterday, I told you about how the Chinese renminbi has been being allowed to gain VS the dollar again… And then I ran into this on YouTube: “The global financial landscape is shifting as the Chinese Yuan gains strength against the US dollar, hitting a near three-year high. Analysts say currency markets are becoming a new battleground between the US and China, with strategic moves impacting global trade and economic power. While the dollar remains dominant, the yuan’s rise signals a slow but significant shift in global financial dynamics.”

Chuck Again…  so, the Chinese and the U.S. are in war… A financial war with their currencies…  to me, the Chinese have picked the right to start this financial war, giving that the U.S. will probably be cutting interest rates early next year…  I’m just saying… Oh, and did you notice that the press used the “yuan” in their writeup on the Chinese currency? Remember that I told you long ago, that the press uses the slang name of the currency because it’s easier to say and spell, not like me who uses the official name of the Chinese currency, the renminbi… 

The dollar has been propped upward for a couple of weeks now, based on the war in Iran and how it’s going… But now, that the ceasefire has held (according to the media, but who really knows what’s going on there?) and now a Peace Agreement is near the dollar will see days like yesterday, more often… 

Have you noticed the Hungarian forint’s rise lately? A month ago, when the dollar was getting bought, the forint had gone as high as 322, but this morning the forint is 302! The Forint is a European priced currency that as the number for the currency goes down the better return in dollars…  The Euro Wannabes of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are my sneaky clues to when the dollar is back to its underlying weak trend… And all three are gaining VS the dollar right now… 

The euro is still the offset currency to the dollar, and you’ll normally see euro strength when the dollar is getting sold…  Man, I’m really ticking off Outlook this morning, it keeps telling me that I’m spelling words incorrectly, but it’s wrong, I’m not!

So, how’s your diversification doing? Wait, What? You haven’t started yet? Man, last week when the dollar was getting bought was the last chance saloon to get in cheap… There’s still time, but it’s waning… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the U.S. Trade Balance… Remember back in the day when I would simply say: Trade Deficit? But then with the advent of tariffs, the deficit turned to a credit, and with this report taken before the BIG Rebate of tariffs Trade was a credit of $60.3 Billion… This will change once tariffs get axed…

Today’s Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which lately have been quite interesting in that the number of claims keeps falling… 

To recap… The dollar’s selling saw some tweaking yesterday and it fell back by 6 index points on the day instead of the 9 index points it was down to start the day… Gold & Silver have been soaring, and it makes Chuck nervous as the SPTs are out there… Sort of like when you swim in the ocean, you know all too well that there are sharks out there, but you do it anyway..

For What It’s Worth…  Well, with Gold & Silver back on the rally tracks yesterday and today, the calls from “the experts” for the metals to rally strongly are all over the place… And I have one of those for you today, and it can be found here: Morgan Stanley sees gold prices climbing to $5,200 despite geopolitical volatility | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher.

In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices.

Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran.

“With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist.

“Gold’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.”

High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices.

“Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said.

Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “

Chuck again…  Well, I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown Gold rallies like she said it will… 

Market Prices 5/7/2026: American Style: A$ .7257, kiwi .5981, C$ .7336, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3615, Swiss $1.2857, European Style: rand 16.2827, krone 9.2299, SEK 9.2018, forint 302.24, zloty 3.5924, koruna 20.6600, RUB 74.68, yen 156.38, sing 1.2657, HKD 7.8314, INR 94.28, China 6.8016, peso 17.20, BRL 4.9239, BBDXY 1,187, Dollar Index 97.59, Oil $91.80, 10-year 4.33%, Siver $80.94, Platinum $2,090.00, Palladium $1,566.00, Copper $6.22, and Gold… $4,735

That’s it for today… Well, my visit to my oncologist on Tuesday was interesting… She did tell me that there was no new signs of Cancer in me, but then talked to me about my jaw where cancerous lesion resides… about 15 years ago, I was going to have my right mandible removed, and I would never eat solid foods again… But then I ended up in the hospital with cellulitis and we booked a trip to M.D Anderson in Houston and the jaw operation was cancelled.. (Thank God!) So, it’s been 15 years, and maybe the operation is different now, and that’s what she wants me to check out… I told her I might, but I doubt I do… I abhor hospital stays, and surgeries!  This has run on a long time, time to end it… War takes us to the finish line today with their song: Low Rider… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Chuck wishes the SPTS would go away….
• And they have… for at least one day!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What a rainy day here yesterday! It never rained hard, or any torrential rains, but the rain was steady for most of the day. The Cardinals game with the Brewers was postponed… So, I had the whole night to find something else to do with my time. I read, did some crosswords and got things together for today’s Pfennig…  Carlos Santana greets me this morning with his song: She’s Not There…  (great guitar work by Carlos as usual) 

Well, Monday saw the metals get sold by the SPT’s and others… Gold lost $92 and Silver lost $2.62… it was a real ugly day for the metals, as Platinum and Palladium and Copper all fell in line and got sold too… 

The dollar on Monday was a bit stronger at 1,194 in the BBDXY…  There was a story out and about how the U.S. had guided 2 American Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Navy had sunk 6 fast boats that the enemy uses to attack larger ships… And that got the “war is back on” thoughts going again, and that’s the reason the dollar was bought, and the SPT’s saw an opportunity to sell the metals short… 

I can’t help but believe that these stories are on the shelf and any time the dollar seems to get wonky, they pull one off the shelf and use it to steady the dollar and get the metals sold again…  Hey! It’s possible! Don’t laugh at me, I truly believe that most of what we hear from the Gulf is fake news… 

And the price of Oil got sold down to $100 as the news that 2 ships made it through the Strait, got Oil traders all lathered up…  But the bond boys aren’t being fooled one iota… The 10-year’s yield bumped higher to end the day yesterday at 4.42% yield… 

Yesterday while I was getting shot up with the chemo they use on me, Gold found a way sold once again by the SPT’s to the tune of $92 and close at $4,527… Silver also saw the same trading as Gold and ended the day down $2.62 at $72.60  

In the overnight markets last night… Well, wish and you may get what you wished for… I say that because the trading overnight is akin to the SPTs walking out on their shorts… Gold is up $149 and Silver is up $4.68… And the dollar is getting sold down the river… The BBDXY is down 9 index points to start our day today… Where’s the PPT? Oh, they’ll be along soon if the past has anything to do with today’s trading…  But for now, the dollar is down, which is exactly what the POTUS would like…  Just the other day he said this: “You make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar,” and this is just one of a number of public statements showing his preference for seeing the dollar decline.

So, the dollar is falling from a cliff, like Wiley Coyote… And the PPT is nowhere to be found, right now…  The price of Oil has fallen out of bed overnight losing $10 and trades this morning with a $90 handle…  And the 10-year saw its yield get sawed down to 4.34% is where it starts the day today…

Copper is kicking tail and taking names later this morning, as if traders finally realized that the shortage of Copper is going to get worse… Copper starts the day at $6.20… 

This morning is turning out like like a thought it should be doing all along, except for Oil and the 10-year…  As Hannibal of the A-Team, always said on “I love it when a plan comes together!”

You have to wonder when, and if, the SPT’s ever have a coming to Jesus moment and walk away from their short positions… I know, I wonder a lot about when that might happen… What could cause then to walk away? Well, a short squeeze that lasted more than a week could do the trick… I think… I obviously don’t have any idea if that would work, I’m just thinking that it could go a long way toward my goal… 

If you have any idea as to what would get the SPT’s to walk away, please send them to me! I really want to know… Because, I get tired of having to type nearly every day that the SPT’s sold the metals and caused them to not be as valuable as they really are… 

News this morning is that the POTUS has halted the guidance of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as the Peace negotiations progress…  Do, you believe that? I don’t, but the markets do, and so the dollar gets sold, and the metals rally…

With the dollar getting sold like this, the currencies have all been awakened, and are getting on their horses to ride! Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen is participating, especially after their intervention a couple of days ago, and scared the traders shorting yen…  The Chinese renminbi is being allowed to gain VS the dollar, and the Aussie dollar (A$) is kicking up some dust…

This just in… The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked their internal interest rate to 4.35%… Hey! They warned everyone the other day that rates would need to rise soon…And soon came last night…  And now the ball is in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s court, where they normally follow their kissin cousin across the Tasman with rate moves… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Trade Balance, and with tariffs still hanging on (before the big rebate) March’s Trade Balance was positive at $60.3 Billion… I think, given the rise in Manufacturing, and this rise in Factory Orders, that businesses are preparing for a long period in the future when things are difficult to get…  Storing up the supples if you will…  Maybe that will help them when the rubber meets the road, but we’ll have to wait-n-see…

Today’s Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report for April…  So, with the ADP today, that means the Jobs Jamboree will take place in two days, on Friday… Right now, the forecasters say that only 56,000 jobs were created in March…  Now that would be not very good for the economy, if it comes to fruition… I’m just saying

To recap…  The SPT’s were ravaging the metals again yesterday, and Chuck wished they would all go away, and overnight it appears his wish has come true! As If! Well, it seems that way, although we know in our heart of hearts that the wolf is always at the door… The dollar is getting sold down the river this morning, and Chuck wonders where the PPT is?

For What It’s Worth… I found this article on Ed Steer’s letter, so he used it and that’s good enough for me! This is Alasdair Macleod talking about a Bond Armageddon that’s coming and it can be found here: Bond Armageddon ahead – by Alasdair Macleod

Or, here’s your snippet: “Markets are meant to discount the future by putting a price on it. But on the evidence, they are failing to do so as the table above intimates. Surely, we all know that the US attack on Iran has created a supply crisis in energy and its derivatives which will raise production costs of every consumer item. If these costs can’t be passed on to consumers, then businesses will go bust, creating mass unemployment.

Higher unemployment and loss of tax revenues destroy government revenues and increases welfare costs. Government finances are already in severe deficit. Yet, driven by Keynesian interventionism governments will be desperate to increase support of their private sectors and bail out consumers. But all that additional deficit spending will merely collapse G7 currencies’ purchasing power, driving price inflation into the mid-seventies’ outcome and probably even higher.

Already, financially challenged governments with record peace-time debt-to-GDPs are about to find their financial obligations go into hyperdrive. Yet, U.S. treasury bond yields do not reflect these difficulties. We have to look at other G7 economies to see the emerging financing crisis, and nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan and Germany, whose manufacturing bases will be most exposed.

Japan’s impending financial crisis is the most obvious. With a debt to GDP of about 230%, government finances depend on the lowest possible borrowing costs. With the Bank of Japan still suppressing its short-term policy rate at only 0.75%, the yield on the 10-year JGB is at its highest level since September 1995.

Clearly, the coming supply shock will disrupt the entire basis of Japan’s high debt and ultra-low-interest rate environment. The rise in bond yields to the highest levels this century is just the beginning of a bond market discounting a debt trap. This has negative consequences for other G7 currencies because the low-cost yen is the basis for a carry-trade supporting their debt markets. Furthermore, Japan’s pensions and insurance companies are the largest source of capital exports into global private sectors.”

Chuck again… and yes, this will affect the U.S. Treasuries… Which we already are aware that they have a funding problems that isn’t going away…

Markets 5/6/2026: American Style: A$ .7260, kiwi .5976, C$.7352, euro 1.1752, sterling 1.3640, Swiss $1.2532, European Style: rand 16.3387, krone 9.2730, SEK 9.1870, forint 304.19, zloty 3.5885, koruna 20.6429, RUB 74.64, yen 155.92, sing 1.2669, HKD 7.8354, INR 94.61, China 6.8110, peso 17.22, BRL 4.9110, BBDXY 1,186, Dollar Index 97.69, Oil $90.55, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $77.64, Platinum $2,042.00, Palladium $1,567.00, Copper $6.20, and Gold… $4,708

That’s it for today… So far so good, no stomach distressing signals yet… I usually get these right after my infusion, and then a small dose of steroids sets me straight again… I had some tacos yesterday for Cinco de Mayo… I once told of my visit to Cancun and singing in the public square, and one reader sent me a scathing email about being a MAK… I won’t spell it out for you, but I’m sure you can figure it out…  I’m heading to a funeral today for one of Kathy’s cousins… Sad story… I had watched him grow up… Ok…. Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Up Thursday, down Friday for the metals
• providing guidance?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals won 2of 3 from the Dodgers, and I was surprised to say the least! Yesterday was what my good friend Duane calls “A beauty of a day”… I sat outside to watch the game and thoroughly enjoyed the day, (Except the Cardinals lost on Sunday)… Jet greets me this morning with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?

I had a fantastico Friday last week, as many of my former colleagues came to a happy hour at my local watering hole… Thanks to Chuck at FBG for taking care of me on my request… 

Well, the dollar ended the week down and the BBDXY settled in for the weekend at 1,193… So, the currency traders were taking the dollar to the woodshed late last week, a far cry from them presenting the dollar with a sash and tiara the week before…  For once… traders did what I said they should have been doing since 2/28 (Start of the war) and that was sell dollars, and buy Gold… 

Gold did see some selling on Friday after rallying on Thursday.. Gold ended the week at $4,618. Silver was bought both Thursday and Friday and ended the week at $75.76… The war in Iran has seen that major offenses take place on Fridays after the markets close…  So, I was half-expecting to see that the U.S. and Israel returned to their offensive VS Iran on Friday… But peace held…  at least as far as the common man knows it held… 

The price of Oil after a HUGE rally earlier in the week, saw the price get whittled down each day as we headed into the weekend… The price of Oil closed on Friday at $101.93… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield closed the week at 4.39% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar received some love from the traders and the BBDXY starts the day/week at 1,194… What’s it gonna be boy? (Meatloaf)  That’s what I would ask these traders, that can’t decide whether to buy the dollar or sell it…  I wish they would just pick a lane and stay in it! 

The metals are getting sold to start the day/ week this morning… the SPTs are out in force and Gold is down $52 and Silver is down – $1.91…  Speaking of picking a lane! Up one day, down the next… it shows me that there’s no clear view on the direction of Gold & Silver right now… In fact, to me all the attention has shifted from the metals to Oil, and that’s causing this back and forth in the metals… Hey! Ahem! Look over here at me! I’m still being bought by Central Banks! Hey, focus your attention over here… That’s what Gold & Silver are saying these days…

Well, the POTUS said that the U.S. Navy would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but ships are still being attacked… And that news has the price of Oil bumping higher overnight and starts our day/week with a $106 handle.. 

And the 10-year Treasury is making things difficult for the Treasury, as the bond boys have the yield at 4.41% this morning… 

Well, the economic data lately has been a bit stronger than previous prints, and that has the Fed Watchers calling for no more rate movements this year…  Now, I wouldn’t got out on that limb like they did, because I see inflation soaring and the Fed Heads will have to raise rates before year end… 

Years ago, when I was at EverBank World Markets, I used to received emails from the noted economist Gary Shilling, who would chastise me for one thing or the other…   So, I was perusing the internet on Friday, and came across a quote from Gay Shilling: ” a recession and a deep stock-market plunge are likely by year-end..  Now that’s 180 degrees away from what I just said about what the Fed Heads will have to do… So, once again, if he knew how to get in touch with me now, I would expect an email from Mr. Shilling… 

And I found this on Fortune.com… it was Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan doing an interview and he said, ” ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it”…  Was it just last week or the week before that I highlighted that former Treasury Sec. Paulson said that we need to address the debt problem now and develop “A Plan B”…  Well, these two quotes play together nicely in the sand box anyway… 

All the Central Banks that met last week left their rates unchanged…  The Bank of Canada, The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel…  Speaking of Central Banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a statement on Friday saying that rising inflation will require the RBA to hike rate… There was nothing that said when they will hike rates, just that a rate hike is in the cards…And the A$ responded to that talk, as buyers wanted to get in before the rate hike happens… The A$ ended the week at .7205

I would like to see kiwi take a flyer too… I don’t know what’s holding it back but with a rise in Commodities led by Oil, The A$ and kiwi should be looking to rise too… 

The euro has been traded the way I thought it should be… With the dollar getting sold, the euro is getting bought… Not like Gold, but it’s getting bought and ended the week at 1.1733… 

The good folks at Gata sent me a note on Friday, let’s listen in… “The U.S. national debt has now surpassed the size of the U.S. economy, a historic threshold that hasn’t been crossed since the conclusion of World War II

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today showed that the national debt held by the public reached $31.27 trillion as of March 31, while nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated at $31.22 trillion for the 12-month period ending in March.”

Chuck again… this is really becoming a major problem folks… and I’m afraid that in the end, the Gov’t will come to those of us who have no debt, to bail out the debtors…  I certainly hope not… But my spider sense is tingling when I think about this… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the ISM (manufacturing ) index for this month and it was better than the avg bear coming in at 52.7… Remember that any number above 50 equals expansion…  This data set had been below 50 for so long that I had forgotten was a number above 50 looked like!

The Cupboard today has the latest reading of Factory Orders…  It will be interesting to see if this latest run of stronger data reports carries on today… 

To recap… The dollar is back to its underlying weak trend, and Chuck was surprised as to how swiftly the dollar got sold… Jamie Dimon tells us there will be a Bond Crisis… and Gary Shilling tells us that we will see a recession and a stock market plunge before year end…  And the RBA says that inflation is rising so they will be required to hike rates soon… 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, I mentioned it above as to how all the market’s attention has been shifted to Oil… Well, this article in Reuters.com talks about all the things that are influenced by the rising price of Oil and can be found here: How the Iran war is driving up the cost of your shopping cart

Or, here’s your snippet: “A surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war is rippling through global supply chains for common consumer goods, making materials like chemicals and plastics more expensive and pushing up manufacturing and transportation costs.

The European price of PET plastic used in soda bottles and other food packaging was 15.4% higher in mid-March than a year earlier, according to data from industry publication Plastics Information Europe (PIE). In North America polyethylene was about 29% higher year-on-year in March, according to estimates from Baird.

Most plastics are made from oil or natural gas processed into chemical building blocks and then converted into polymers which are used to make wrappings and tubs for products like detergents, as well as polyester fabric for clothing.

The egg itself is produced biologically by hens and contains no petrochemical inputs, although fossil fuels are indirectly involved via fertilizer and feed production.

Most conventional tampons contain petrochemical‑derived components such as polypropylene, polyethylene, or polyester in covers, strings, or applicators.

Chocolate is primarily made from biological ingredients (cocoa, sugar, milk fats) and does not inherently require petrochemical inputs, although some brands may add synthetic emulsifiers.

Bath tissue is primarily produced from wood‑based cellulose fibres rather than petrochemical polymers, making it a biogenic, pulp‑derived product.

Most toothpaste formulations directly use petrochemical‑derived surfactants, humectants (e.g. sorbitol), polymers, and preservatives such as sodium lauryl sulfate and polyethylene glycol.

For common grocery items, packaging of any type – plastic, paper or glass – typically represents 5% to 15% of a product’s manufacturing cost, according to specialised consultancy MAT.

The average price of all groceries tracked by data firm Nielsen IQ and sold in U.S. stores, from Walmart to CVS pharmacies, rose 2.9% from a year before in the four weeks from the start of the conflict to March 28. 

Chuck again… This article goes on and on about all the things affected by Oil so if you have the time, go ahead and check it out…

Market prices 5/4/2026: American Style: A$ .7186, kiwi .5887, C$ .7350, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2760, European Style: rand 16.7373, krone 9.2629, SEK 9.2693, forint 310.95, zloty 3.6395, koruna 20.8429, RUB 75.47, yen 157.09, sing 1.2759, HKD 7.8329, INR 95.08, China 6.8289, peso 17.48, BRL 4.9555, BBDXY 1.194, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.87, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $73.56, Platinum $1,959.00, Palladium $1,499.00, Copper $5.87, and Gold… $4,562… 

That’s it for today… Yesterday was the Birthday of one of our good friends… Toni Moody… Happy Birthday month, Toni! No Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ll be visiting my oncologist, who will go over the scans I had on Saturday… Spoiler Alert, they didn’t show any new cancer…  There was a baby shower for Grace on Saturday, it was good, albeit briefly, to see all the neighborhood ladies all dressed up…  Some of them wanted to know about the scans, but at that time I knew nothing!  And so, I told them that…  Alex and Grace stopped by last night, I love it when the kids drop by… The Strawbs take us to the finish line today with their great song: Autumn..  (the Strawbs were the second rendition of the Strawberry Alarm Clock, oh you never heard of them either?  Sorry) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself…

Chuck Butler

• the war goes on, strait is closed and the dollar rallies on Wed.
• Powell’s last meeting as chairman

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals received some clutch hits on Wednesday night and beat Pittsburgh, 5-4… It took a game saving catch, robbing a homer to finally put the Buccos down… I wasn’t allowed to eat on Monday, and it was difficult to do, but I made it…  Tomorrow evening, the folks at EverBank, and other banks that used to work on the trade desk with me, will gather at my local watering hole… I am ready!  Tommy James and the Shondells greet me this morning with their song: Crystal Blue Persuasion…. 

This dollar trading is really getting on my nerves… The war goes on, so… The dollar rallies and yesterday it ended with the BBDXY at 1,202, up 10 index points… OUCH! Now, that’s going to leave a mark! The annual return for the dollar, which had been as low at -8%, is now just -1.6%…  

And with the war still hanging on, and more importantly to the asset classes, is that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut down… And that means that Gold & Silver got sold again in a “risk off” trade… Gold lost $ 52  to close at $4,549, and Silver lost $1.75 to close at $71.45… The damage that’s been done to the metals is really beginning to show wear ….  How low can they go?   With the SPTs showing up each day to make sure that the metals have a rotten day, I can’t even garner an idea of how low they can go…. 

The price of Oil is kicking tail and taking names later, as it closed yesterday at $109… There’s nothing other than ending the war and opening the Strait that’s going to stand in the Oil price’s rise…   And the 10-year continues to add to its yield, as yesterday it closed with a 4.43% yield… 

The FOMC left rates unchanged yesterday. As Jerome Powell led his final FOMC meeting be steps down as Chairman next month…  He’s not going away, as he’s staying on the Board of the Fed until all his legal problems are resolved…  The FMOC held rates steady but with the highest level of dissent since 1992… The natives were restless, as they see inflation rising and they’ll be to blame when inflation is rolling higher and higher…  

In The overnight markets last night… This surprised me greatly… The dollar got sold overnight, and the BBDXY lost 7 index points, thus basically taking out yesterday’s huge upswing for the dollar… I’m looking all over the internet for the skinny on this dollar selling, but coming up empty… I’m sure there will be something to talk about a bit later this morning…  So, the euro is back above 1.17 and the rest of the currencies have been awakened from their slumbers… 

And Gold & Silver are back on the buying table… Gold is up $52 and Silver is up $1.75 to start our day today…  It’s as if the war is over and the strait is open again… Or more like it, the traders just realized what they were doing and decided to reverse it and bring it back to reality…. 

That’s probably what’s going on… I’ll keep my ear to the ground though… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and starts today at $106… Still, quite high… And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield slip a bit overnight and starts today with a 4.39% yield… 

Well, the FOMC meeting yesterday must have been rollicking…  Here’s CNBC’s thoughts on the meeting: “However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn amid a groundswell of officials who opposed messaging that further rate cuts could be ahead. Amid expectations for a routine vote to hold the benchmark funds rate steady, the FOMC instead was split along 8-4 lines, with officials expressing different reasons for their vote.

The last time four FOMC members dissented was in October 1992.”

Chuck again…  Well, the Bank of Canada left their internal rate unchanged yesterday…  And today we’ll see the Bank of England and European Central Bank leave rate unchanged… I don’t know what these Central Banks and the Fed/Cabal/Cartel are waiting for… Do they need an engraved invitation to hike rates to offset this rising inflation? 

I guess they do… Well, don’t look at me, I’m not going to send them an engraved invitation to hike rates!  

In other news… The UAE is going to leave OPEC… Is this a problem for the group? I think so… Here’s Bloomberg.com with their thought on this subject: “The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC next month, in a significant blow to the group that raises questions about its future at a time when the industry is grappling with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war.”

I think that had a bit to do with the price of Oil’s rise yesterday… 

I read yesterday that one of the reasons that the price of Gas is so high here in the U.S. even with the fact that we are energy independent, is that the U.S. is sending Oil to countries that need it desperately… While I don’t like to have to pay $4 a gallon for gas, I can see the Oil Company’s motive (higher price for their Oil), but I don’t have to like it!

The euro is dragging the Petrol Currencies down… The Petrol Currencies like the ruble, real, and krone, should be on a big rally right now but the euro’s fall from the 1.17 handle was causing weakness in each of the Petrol Currencies…  So, the dollar strength played here too… But that’s over for at least one session…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March Durable Goods Orders, and they did indeed recover from Feb’s -1.4% and came in at 1.2%…  So, for the year they are basically flat…  Hopefully, the trend is for them to continue to recover, but we’ll have to wait-n-see…

Today’s Data Cupboard is chock-full-o-data today… Personal Income and Spending will start us off, along with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the PCE index, and the leading Indicators for Feb… Isn’t that an oxymoron? They are “leading Indicators” that are from 2 months ago.. I’m just asking….

To recap… the war goes on, and so does the rally in the dollar… and the weakness in Gold & Silver…  Well, at least it did, until last night… Powell chaired his last meeting as chairman of the FOMC yesterday when they left rates unchanged… Chuck wants to know what they are waiting for with inflation rising… And the UAE is leaving OPEC…  Chuck believes it’ll be a BIG Deal…

For What It’s Worth… Yesterday, I included a quote from Ray Dalio as he was telling people that they needed to own Gold… Well, today I have a whole article from Ray Dalio stating the same stuff, but this time with some meat to his statement, and it can be found here: ‘Gold Is Money’: Billionaire Ray Dalio Urges Investors To Put 5–15% Into Gold As Iran War Threatens 20% of Global Oil Supply | IBTimes UK

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the conflict involving Iran enters its ninth week, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a clear message to global investors. In times of uncertainty, he says, gold remains one of the most reliable stores of value.

Speaking in a recent interview, Dalio warned that the ongoing war is reshaping financial and geopolitical stability. He advised that investors should consider allocating between 5 and 15 per cent of their portfolios to gold.

A War With Global Consequences

The conflict has already begun to disrupt key global supply chains. At the centre of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

Berenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds EntirelyRead moreBerenberg Tells Investors To Put 45% In Gold, Silver And Bitcoin — Ditches Bonds Entirely

Before the war, the narrow passage handled roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil. Since hostilities escalated, access has been severely restricted. This has raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions and sustained pressure on energy prices. Oil markets have reacted sharply. Prices have surged this year, reflecting both reduced supply and growing uncertainty over how long the disruption may last.

Dalio noted that control over the strait will be a decisive factor in how the conflict unfolds. He also pointed to broader concerns within the US, including rising fuel costs and political pressures linked to domestic elections.

Dalio’s argument rests on a simple premise. Gold is not just a commodity. It is, in his words, a form of money. He described gold as one of the oldest and most trusted stores of value.”

Chuck Again… thank you Ray, you are a gem in my book… 

Market Prices 4/30/2026: American Style: A$ .7150, kiwi .5863, C$ .7325, euro 1.1712, sterling 1.3526, Swiss $1.2722, European Style: rand 16.5109, krone 9.3117, SEK 9.2513, forint 311.42, zloty 3.6391, koruna 20.8159, RUB 74.50, yen 156.95, sing 1.2755, HKD 7.8339, INR 94.91, China 6.8275, peso 17.50, BRL 4.9969, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 98.37, Oil $106.56, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $73.80, Platinum $1,957.00, Palladium $1,514.00, Copper $5.98, and Gold… $4,642

That’s it for today… Well, it’s the end of April… it wasn’t as rainy and cold as last April, but from the weather app May looks like it will take April’s place as a rainy month… UGH!  On Saturday, I go for my scans… While there’s a baby shower going at the house for Grace…  (Alex’s wife)  I was up nearly all-night last night, don’t know why, just couldn’t sleep…  Cardinals come home to play the mighty Dodgers this weekend… I’m not so sure they are ready to play such a mighty team… But games go on… Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Out In The Country… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• Throwing the dollar a life line…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I got through Monday and Tuesday and now I wait to see if I have a problem…  My scans on Monday got postponed to this weekend, as the prep for the scope on Tuesday was interfering… it was a rainy day yesterday, although I didi get out side to read right after coming home from the hospital… You’ve got to deal with the rain to enjoy the sunshine! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great song: Twilight Zone…

The war continues, so.. The dollar gained both on Monday and Tuesday with the BBDXY gaining 2 points each day… I continue to say that this isn’t the way the asset classes should trade.. With the dollar being bought and metals getting sold… But it is what it is…  

The price of Gold got sold $1.12 to end the day at $4,596, and Silver got sold $2.46 to end the day at $73.10.. I read a report the other day where the writer was saying that “Gold isn’t dead, it’s just being sold after over a 50% rise in the last year”…  Well, that might settle down some people, but not me! I just don’t see why Gold is being treated like this… But the SPTs don’t make this any easier for Gold & Silver that’s for sure!

The price of Oil ventured over $100 for a brief time yesterday before settling back at $99…  Very close to $100, but not $100… I can see the PPT working their magic…   Oh, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher to end the day at 4.35% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the war goes on, so does the dollar… The BBDXY gained 1 index point overnight, and starts today at 1,198… UGH! I wanted to mention the dollar swaps that Treasury Sec. Bessent announced yesterday… This is a nothing more than attempt to throw a life saver ring to the dollar and return wide distribution of the dollar… Good luck with that Treasury Sec.!  

Gold & Silver see more selling this morning… I just don’t get it.. Gold & Silver should be roaring right now, with inflation rising and geopolitical problems by the bushelful… But that’s not happening… I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section this morning, so be patient young Jedi, you’ll get there eventually… 

The price of Oil has risen above $100 again this morning and is trading at $103 to start the day…  And the 10-year Treasury bumped higher to trade with a 4.36% yield this morning… 

Longtime reader will recall me saying that I enjoy reading Ray Dalio…  He’s written a book that I’ve read about the history of trends, markets etc. and it’s good!  Well, he had this to say yesterday, “Let’s not be naive, ok, and say: Oh, we’re breaking the rule-based system,” Dalio said in an interview with Fortune at the WEF (1). “It’s gone. It’s going.”

Dalio was referring to the current global balance of power between nations, which has hinged on relatively predictable U.S. foreign policy.”

Chuck Again….  Ray Dalio goes on to tell readers that in times like this now, that investors should be buying Gold…  Yea, I agree… But we can lead a horst to water but not make him drink it! 

Bill Bonner was wondering yesterday in his letter, why hasn’t the stock market bubble popped yet?  Here’s Bill… “By almost all measures, US asset prices are in a bubble. Based on Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratios, for example, the S&P 500 has been this high only one time in history — at the height of the Dot.com bubble. But back then, things were looking up. The US was not at war…and the feds were actually running a budget surplus.”  

Chuck again… I say it all the time… this stock market is crazy! But, its rally lives on, and on and on… Is this an everlasting Bubble? It certainly looks like it could be….   (I figure that since I said that I jinxed stocks, so we’ll see…)

The FOMC meets today to discuss interest rates… What to do, what to do? Inflation is rising, but the White House wants lower interest rates, so much so they nominated the POTUS’s friend to chair the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and influence the rate decisions…  I afraid that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged again and rile the POTUS and the markets that are looking for a rate cut….  But a rate cut is not in the cards… Not with inflation rising and the future of inflation unknown at this time, because of the war, I just don’t see the FOMC cutting rates right now… 

That won’t be good for Gold & Silver… but then higher rates would certainly give the naysayers the food they need to sell metals…  I’m just saying…  Not that the metals can’t rally in high interest rates (remember the 70’s?) it just makes things more difficult…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the March Durable Goods Orders, and they are expected to recover April’s negative -1.4% print… So, we’ll see how good the forecasters are… Or, would they be in the same arena with the folks that forecast the weather?  There are some housing reports, but I normally don’t get into those too much… 

But nothing is more important to the markets than the FOMC meeting…  Of course, I don’t feel like the FOMC is worth a plug nickel, but that doesn’t stop the markets from genuflecting over them! 

In other countries… Greece is no longer the most in debt Country in Europe…  Word came last week that Greek debt is estimated to decline to around 137% of gross domestic product this year from 145.9% in 2025, two senior officials told Reuters. By contrast, Italy expects its debt to peak at 138.6% in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% of GDP in 2025, under the Treasury’s multi-year budget plan published this week. That makes Italy the most indebted country in Europe! 

Remember when the talk about currencies was all about the PIGS?  That stood for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain… Spain isn’t far behind Italy and Greece at this point with regards to indebtedness…. To these countries, it was Godsend when the Eurozone came along…. And made everyone look at the Whole of the Eurozone instead of individual countries… I recall when I had to know the economics of each individual country to trade their respective currencies…  Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end; we’d sing forever and a day…  No! Wait! Why’d you go there, Chuck? 

The Bank of England (BOE) will meet tomorrow and the thoughts sifting through the newswires is that the BOE will leave rates unchanged as they wait to see the possible effects of the Iran War. 

And the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet on Thursday with the ECB leaving rates unchanged for the same reason as the BOE… 

To recap… The dollar is getting bought as the war continues… Gold is getting sold for the same reason… And the STPs are ganging up on Gold & Silver’s weakness… Lots of Central Bank rate meeting on the docket this week… More like a tempest in a teacup… But the markets being the markets, they treat it like wreck of the Hindenburg! 

For What It’s Worth…   As usual, the FWIW articles are taking a back seat to the articles on the War and Energy problems, but I did find this little ditty on the out look for Gold & Silver, that is not a bright spot, but tells it like it is and can be found here: ‘Gold remains the strategic allocation, while silver remains the tactical opportunity’ – Saxo Bank’s Hansen | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Oil-led inflation risks, not geopolitics, are driving near-term weakness in precious metals, and while gold’s pullback looks cyclical rather than structural, silver’s vulnerability to industrial demand and investment flows makes it more fragile, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen noted that “rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, firmer inflation expectations and a renewed higher-for-longer view on US interest rates have together created a more challenging short-term environment for non-yielding assets,” which have driven gold prices to a three-week low.

“With Brent crude climbing above USD 111, the market’s focus remains squarely on the inflationary impact of higher energy costs at a time when AI-driven investment spending continues to support US growth, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates for now,” he said. “Adding to the near-term uncertainty, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings on Wednesday, the same day the FOMC meets to assess the economic outlook.”

Hansen said the metals’ direction will be dictated by the energy market for the time being, and he pointed to the potential reopening of the Strait and the subsequent drop in oil prices as “the biggest short term upside catalyst for the metals.”

He wrote that skyrocketing oil prices and rising inflation are strengthening the dollar and delaying rate cuts. “However, while the conflict has become a near-term hurdle, it does not represent a roadblock,” he said. “The structural drivers that powered gold’s rally over the past two years remain firmly in place and, in several cases, have strengthened.”

Chuck Again… yes, it’s the same war= dollar strength, Gold weakness mantra… But I like the part about the structural drivers still being in place… That’s something to hang my hat on!

Market Prices 4/29/2026: American Style: A$ .7158, kiwi .5858, C$ .7308, euro 1.1706, sterling 1.3509, Swiss $1.2672, European Style: rand 16.5919, krone 9.2868, SEK 9.2656, forint 311.11, zloty 3.6324, koruna 20.8227, RUB 75.01, yen 159.34, sing 1.2775, HKD 7.8366, INR 94.55, China 6.8335, peso 17.39, BRL 4.9741, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 98.69, Oil $103.39, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $71.91, Platinum $1,919.00, Palladium $1,475, Copper $5.97, and Gold… $4,571

That’s it for today…  Well, it certainly hasn’t been a week of sunshine and seashells for yours truly, but I’m still here so there’s that! Well, I’m not leaking blood from any place in my body, so now the doctor is at a loss as to why I became so anemic, and now I’m not…  I mean it was so bad that I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without feeling like I was ready to collapse! But now… no problemo! And I think baseball is strange… my body is strange!  My beloved Cardinals won in Pittsburgh last night… They hit the ball! Sure, makes a difference when you hit!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: I’m A Man… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler