Category: Uncategorized

• the dollar continues to get bought
• ECB meets today…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Wel, what a difference a week makes, as I feel this week to be able to participate in any Tub Thumpin’ anyone might want to do today! Last week, a hard no on Tub Thum’in’, but a week later, I’m raring and willing to go! I had my biopsy on the tumor on my mandible yesterday, and I was telling a good friend of mine, that it went better than one could imagine… Now, I sit and wait for the genetic testing lab to come back with something… I’m really frustrated with the process of finding me a new chemo… ,  But .. It is what it is…  Dodgers go up 2-1 in games in the NLCS…  America greets me this morning with their great 70’s song: Lonely People… 

The dollar didn’t move much yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining less than 1 index point on the day… The euro remained below 1.09, and the rest of the currencies remaining in their sick beds… Maybe the dolllar run its course for this period of time… Maybe….  Gold & Silver had great days yesterday with Gold gaining $12 on the day, and Silver gaining 20-cents… Gold closed the day at $2,675.10, and Silver closed at $31.86… I read an article written by Ronnie Stöferle, the guy that puts together the annual book on Gold, In Gold We Trust…  And he went through 5 reasons why he believes Gold is nowhere near reaching a high and petering out… 

Here’s Ronnie with his thought on Gold: “With a gold price of just over USD 2,600 at the end of September, the gold price has reached the year-end forecast of our Incrementum Gold Price Forecast Model for 2024,” he concluded. “Given the further deterioration in economic and (geo)political conditions, the model’s price target of just over USD 4,800 by the end of 2030 will be considered a conservative projection. Against this background, even gold, which became significantly more expensive last year, is still cheap.”  – Ronnie Stöferle

Chuck again… Ronnie is so well thought of when it comes to people talking about Gold that he’s like the old E.F. Hutton commercials… When Ronnie speaks, people listen..  I found that article on kitco.com 

And here’s Ed Steer’s take on the metals/ dollar trading yesterday: “Helped along by another one of those phony baloney dollar index ‘rallies’…the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe made sure that silver’s big break-out attempt in early morning COMEX trading didn’t get far.

It traded as high as $32.38 in the December contract, but ‘da boyz’ made sure it closed below $32 bucks…which it did, at $31.97. Of course — and as is always the case, it would have closed at some rather spectacular 3-digit price if they hadn’t intervened.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil bumped a dollar higher yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $71 handle…  And the 10-year’s buying stopped for a moment, and left the bond with a 4.03% yield to end the day…

In the overnight markets last night….I know I sound like a broken record, but here goes… The dollar continued to get bought overnight, with the BBDXY gaining 1.50 index points…  As far as Gold & Silver are concerned, I don’t mind sounding like a broken record, and so this morning in the early trading, Gold is up $6, while Silver is in search of a bid this morning, down 9-cents…  I’d like to take a minute here and discuss what Ed Steer talked about above, regarding a “fake dollar index rally”… 

Ed and I agree that the dollar keeps getting pulled out of the gutter by the PPT and their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). So, when he says something like that, he detected funny business in the dollar index trading…  

The price of Oil slid back below $71 overnight, and trades this morning with a $70 handle… I truly believe that there are no markets out there that have asset classes that are not manipulated… Oil is included in this discussion… You tell me that all the saber rattling going on in the Middle East doesn’t have Oil trading around $90?   I’m just saying… 

The 10-year’s yield bumps higher overnight to trade with a 4.04% this morning, to start our day. 

I’m dead serious here folks, that every asset class is manipulated…  I’m just saying…. 

Well, the European Central Bank (ECB ) is meeting while my fat fingers go to work this morning… The European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates for the third time this year later today. The first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years would mark a shift in focus for the euro zone’s central bank from bringing down inflation to protecting economic growth.   Really?  oh, Nellie! That’s totally stupid in my opinion, and the euro deserves to be trashed because the ECB is now thought to be on bord to cut 5 times in the next year… But, here’s the thing to think about with the euro… It is the offset currency to the dollar, and if the dollar would be set free to trade without intervention, it would be getting sold, and the euro would be getting bought…   I’m just saying…

And here in the U.S. there was a news story about how Raytheon defrauded the U.S. and got caught with its hands in the cookie jar… Here’s the skinny from the U.S. Justice Dept… “Raytheon Company (Raytheon) — a subsidiary of Arlington, Virginia-based defense contractor RTX (formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation) — will pay over $950 million to resolve the Justice Department’s investigations into: (i) a major government fraud scheme involving defective pricing on certain government contracts and (ii) violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and its implementing regulations, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).”

Chuck again… Ok, here we go again with the “if Chuck was kind” stuff… If I were King, I would tell Raytheon, goodbye, no more business with you, and you are not allowed to sell your goods and intellectual property to anyone outside of the U.S.      But that’s not what will happen… In a few years, mark my words here, a new claim will be made against Raytheon, and everyone will be scratching their collective heads, an  say, “I thought we canned this company a few years ago?”….  I’m just saying… 

And that Ole Debt is being talked about again, with the talker pointing out the U.S., I found this on Zerohedge.com this morning, so let’s listen in: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning about the rising tide of public debt in countries across the globe, with the United States standing out due to its persistent fiscal deficits and mounting spending pressures.

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, released on Oct. 15, projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion in 2024, equal to about 93 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), and could approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. The United States, in particular, faces significant risks if fiscal policies are not adjusted urgently.

The report emphasizes that countries, including the United States, need to address debt risks with carefully crafted fiscal strategies.”

Chuck again… Well, for countries like the U.S. and Japan, the old Carol King song comes to mind… It’s too late baby now it’s too late…. Default on some or most of our debt is going to be our only choice going forward, the Debt is too large to inflate away, although the knuckleheads that run this country are going to give that the old College try, but to no avail… Default is coming to a theater near you… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard finally has some real economic data for us to view today… First up is the Sept report on Retail Sales… I told you earlier in the week that the BHI indicates that Retail Sales will be OK… Not great but OK…  Next up is the Usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, of which I believe we’ll begin to see this report grow with the number of Unemployed people…  Next up is Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, which I don’t think will give anyone goose bumps…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… Chuck sounds like a broken record, as he repeats again and again, that the dollar got bought again yesterday and last night…  Gold & Silver found their ways through the gauntlet of short paper trading yesterday to eke out a gain, and are up in the early trading this morning… The ECB meets this morning, and they will most likely cut rates again…  And Raytheon got their hands caught in the cookie jar… 

For What It’s Worth… I pulled this from Ed Steer’s letter this morning after he featured it… This is about how Oranges prices are soaring, so get ready for that, and you can find it here: Orange Juice Prices Near Record Highs Amid Fears Of Worst Florida Harvest In A Century | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Frozen concentrated orange juice futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York are nearing new record highs. The squeeze in the physical markets may drastically worsen after a new citrus grove survey damage report across Florida following Hurricane Milton shows widespread damage.

Industry consultant Judy Ganes told Bloomberg that more than three million boxes of oranges may have been lost after Milton knocked fruit from branches and devastated citrus groves in the Sunshine State. She warned the next Florida harvest could be the worst since the late 1920s.

In recent years, Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, freezing conditions, and citrus greening disease have decimated citrus groves in the state. Milton has only exacerbated those problems. Some of the latest industry figures show that US orange production is set to reach its lowest level in more than a century.

O.J. futures have surged to $5/lb., a staggering 433% jump from the Covid lows of around $1/lb. Worsening supply woes could push prices even higher.”

Chuck again… This situation isn’t going to go anything nice to inflation pricing…  I’m just saying… You know, I used to drink a ton of orange juice, but then I had problems with my blood sugar and ( had to stop drinking it… UGH!

Market Prices 10/17/2024: American Style: A$ .6697, kiwi .6070, C$ .7259, euro 1.0885, sterling 1.3017, Swiss $1.1583, European Style: rand 17.7205, krone 10.9313, SEK 10.5702, forint 364.80, zloty 3.9306, koruna 23.2470, RUB 94.17, yen 149.49, sing 1.3124, HKD 7.7740, INR 84.08, China 7.1214, peso 19.99, BRL 5.6044, BBDXY 1,252.82, Dollar Index 103.47, Oil $70.48, 10-year 4.04%, Silver $31.77, Platinum $1.008.00, Palladium $1,039.00, Copper $4.33, and Gold… $2,681.18

That’s it for today and this week… Kathy was supposed to on a plane heading for S. Florida on Wednesday, but she changed it to Saturday, so as to be here for my biopsy… How nice of her, eh? So, starting Saturday, I’ll be all by myself (Eric Carmen) here… No biggie as I do believe I’m past the difficult time and well on the road to recover… It was a double whammy with me this time, with first the blood loss of the bleeding ulcer, and then the water weight taking me over…I’m back to within 12lbs of where I was with my weight, before all this happened…  YAHOO! My beloved Mizzou Tigers come home to play Auburn this Saturday… Go Tigers! Bob Marley and the Whalers take us to the finish line today, with their song: Three Little Birds….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, oh please, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to get bought…
• But Gold & Silver on firmly on the rally tracks today…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Brrrr… It sure was chilly around here yesterday, and this morning I woke up to temps in the mid-30’s… YIKES!  But the weather guy told me last night that by the weekend it will be warm again… So, that’s good, I only have to wear long pants for a day or so!  I live in shorts and Gold shirts, folks, and cringe when I have to get the long pants out! When our kids were kids, we used to dress up the house with all shorts of Halloween stuff… I even had a ghost that flew across the front of the house when trick-or-treaters came up the walkway to the house…. But we don’t even get the Halloween decorations out any longer… UGH!  I was in New Orleans on Bourbon Street on Halloween years ago… Talk about costumes! Anyway, in years past I always sat outside to give away the candy to the trick-or-treaters… But not this year…  Sugarloaf greets me this morning with their great song: Green Eyed Lady….  all 7 minutes of the song!

Well, the dollar was bought yesterday, not by the bushelful, more like, some casual buying, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points on the day… The euro finally gave up and fell below the 1.09 handle, and the rest of the currencies remain in their respective sick beds…  Gold fought a battle with the short paper traders yesterday, but in the end, Gold closed up $14 yesterday to close at $ 2,663.90, and Silver gained 32-cents to close the day at $31.55.. 

Oil remained trading in the $70 handle yesterday, again, I can’t believe with all the saber rattling going on, that the price of Oil isn’t soaring….    And the Fed Heads must have found a way to get the 10-year’s yield under control, somewhat that is, as the 10-year’s yield fell to 4.03% yesterday… The 10-year’s yield on Friday last week was at 4.10%… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar continued to get bought, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points tp start our day today… There’s nothing behind this buying, folks… It’s all trader sentiment, that’s driving the dollar higher each day, and those same traders have Chuck scratching his bald head…  There’s no way the BBDXY should be at 1.251 this morning, but… It is… I’m going to leave this there, because I can feel my blood pressure rising… 

This morning, there was news that the POTUS candidate, Trump, was speaking about more tariffs…  And the dollar bugs all bought what he was saying…  Didn’t these dollar bugs learn that you don’t listen to candidates spew their promises?  Like all those promises to tax the rich to pay or tax cuts for the folks lower on the totem pole of life… Yeah, I wanna see that one take place…  And that’s my end on political related talk this morning… You know, I don’t like going there, but these promises are getting out of hand, an these latest ones by Trump has the dollar soaring higher…  UGH! 

Gold is up $18 to start our day today, and Silver is up 43-cents!  Here’s what friend, Rich Checkan from ASI said this morning, “As the world waits to see if the conflict in Israel escalates, safe haven gold buying is driving spot prices high despite a relatively strong U.S. dollar. International turmoil continues to drive spot prices, as well as monetary policy.”   Thanks Rich, that more richly said, than my old “saber rattling is causing Gold to rise”… 

I found this on Bloomberg. Com this morning, “In a break to that form, reserve managers from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia and Czech Republic on Monday sang the praises of bigger holdings.

The comments provided unique insight into how they are viewing bullion, with the officials saying that gold as a percentage of their country’s reserves is more likely to increase in the years ahead amid a confluence of growing geopolitical tensions and lower interest rates.

“Given the context that we are facing right now — lower rates, your political tension, US election, a lot of uncertainty — maybe the share of gold in our portfolios could be increasing as well,” said Joaquín Tapia, director of international reserves at Banco de México.”

Chuck again… So, Central Banks are now taking the stage and calling for more physical Gold buying? Well, bust my buttons! I can recall a time when Central Banks around the world were lining up to sell their Gold holdings… And now-a-days, those central banks are probably kicking themselves in the rear for making such a dumb mistake, years ago… Think about this, folks… If Central Banks are touting buying more Gold… Then you should be backing up the truck to take on more too…. Follow the money…. 

And this morning there was a warning from Israel that they will make their own decisions regarding how they address Iran….  In other words, “hey U.S., we’ve got this, leave us along”…  to which if I were running the U.S. I would say, “ok, as you wish”, and take all our troops, and missel defenses, an aircraft carried unit, and go home… Why do we have all that there to begin with, this isn’t our fight? But as long as we are there… It helps Gold’s price… So, there’s that… 

I couldn’t answer the bell again this morning, and thus the lateness of the letter this morning… I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning, but sometimes, my body tells me that it needs to sleep, and I always listen to what my body tells me! 

The U.S. Data cupboard this morning is still lacking with only the Import Prices for Sept. For us to view today… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will be busy with Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all for Sept for us to view…  I don’t expect to see any surprises here tomorrow, so our day of data will disappoint, that’s one thing I’m pretty sure about… 

To recap… The dollar keeps getting bought, and now the dollar bugs are talking about Trump’s promises to add to his tariffs, and that has the dollar soaring this morning… Chuck warms us about listening to candidates promises… Central Banks are now touting their views to buy more physical Gold… And Chuck points out that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander here…. 

For What it’s Worth… This is someone talking about how inflation isn’t dead as the adults in the room are telling us..  Sound like me? Well ,it isn’t… And the article can be found here:Is the Inflation Monster Still Hiding Under the Bed? (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:  “The so-called grownups tell us everything is fine. The inflation monster is gone now.

Or is it?

Sure, most people don’t believe it’s there, but I think the inflation monster is hiding under the bed. The adults in the room say it’s not there. But kiddos, there are signs — if you look close enough.

Money Supply Is Growing – That’s Inflation!

Properly defined, inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit. Price inflation is one symptom of this monetary inflation.

And the money supply is growing.

In other words, we are already back in an inflationary environment.

The M2 money supply bottomed one year ago at $20.60 trillion. Since then, it has crept upward. As of August, it was at 21.17 trillion. That’s the highest level since January 2023.

The money supply has grown on a year-over-year basis for five straight months.

The resurgence of money supply growth is, by definition, inflation. We are already seeing the result as stock market values increase. Whether this new round of inflationary activity finds its way into consumer prices remains to be seen, but the uptick in core CPI is cause for concern.”

Chuck Again…  Again, a different voice for you to hear, other than mind, that has been telling you about money supply for months now… 

Market Price 10/16/2024: American Style: A$ .6683, kiwi .6057, C$ .7257, euro 1.0888, sterling 1.3088, Swiss $1.1584, European Style: rand 17.6252, krone 10.8586, SEK 10.4429, forint 368.50, zloty 3.9501, koruna 23.2341, RUB 96.89, yen 149.50, sing 1.3103, HKD 7.7711, INR 83.99, China 7.7711, peso 19.93, BRL 5.6884, BBDXY 1,251.04, Dollar Index 103.32, Oil $70.96, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $31.92, Platinum $995.00, Palladium $1,018.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,581.39

That’s if tor today… Well, I go to have a biopsy done on the tumor in my jaw today… I wish they would cut the whole darn thing out, but that would be a very messy surgery, and one that the Docs are hoping they don’t have to perform. I climbed the stairs yesterday without oxygen, and… Drum roll please… I wasn’t breathing hard like before when I got to the top! That means my breathing is getting back to normal…  Kathy wasn’t home, so I thought I would give it a try to see how I did without her here telling me not to do it….I also have a Physical Therapy specialist coming to see me this morning…  The Yankees go up 2-0 in the ALCS, as expected… Now they go to Cleveland for games 3-5.. *game 5-if needed) I like the Indians, I mean Guardians, but when you run into a juggernaut, well… You know….  My dad always told me NOT root for any team from the coast, as they have different payrolls than the small market teams, like my beloved Cardinals… So, I’m not rooting for the Yankees, just stating facts…. Triumph takes us to the finish line today, with their song: Magic Power… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourslef…

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals drift on Monday after getting sold the previous night!
• What if a missile goes awry?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! The Yankees won their game 1 of the ALCS last night, while the Mets evened their series with the Dodgers… Baseball is baseball to me, I don’t need my beloved Cardinals to be playing to watch a playoff baseball game! Although that would be nice if they were playing! Autumn is gone! The weather here is downright chilly, and overnight it is cold… UGH!  And you know me… I do NOY enjoy cold weather! Hopefully, this is just a week-long dip in the temps and warmer weather will come back… The Three Dog Night greet me this morning with their song: Mama Told Me Not To Come… 

Well, the dollar buying that went on Sunday night into Monday, where the BBDXY gained 4 index points, petered out during the U.S. session yesterday, thus leaving the BBDXY trading in the same clothes from the previous night. Something strange went on Sunday night, folks… Yesterday, I talked about how I just don’t see the reason for the dollar to be bought, and apparently neither do the U.S. traders…   

Gold & Sliver had seen some early morning selling yesterday, with Gold down $5 and Silver down 26-cents… Well, we went through all the gyrations yesterday to end up with Gold down $5 and Silver down 26-cents!  Gold closed at $2650, and Silver closed at $31.24… So, a “nothing day” for the metals… 

The price of Oil slid by $3 yesterday and ended the day trading with a $71 handle… I found this to be contra to what I was talking about yesterday, regarding all the saber rattling going on in the world… One would think that outbreaks of war around the world would disrupt Oil deliveries and therefore cause a rise in the price of Oil…  I guess that “one” is me, because that’s not happening right now… 

The 10-year saw its yield drop 1 basis point yesterday to 4.09%…  I hope the Fed Heads are happy to see the yield of the 10-year stop rising… Well, for now that is… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar didn’t move much, certainly not like it did the previous night! The BBDXY sits at 1,247 to stat the day today… The currencies all look sick this morning, and in need of some TLC… Gold is up $6 to start the day today, and Silver is up 4-cents…  With all the saber rattling going on right now, I’m surprised that Gold and the price of Oil aren’t soaring… I guess we’ll have to wait, eh?   The thing that pushed the price of oil down to a $71 handle was a report that Israel will not target Iran’s Oil supplies… But what happens if a missile goes awry?  Oops, my bad… And all hell breaks loose… 

Someone, can you say the Fed Heads?, bought the 10-year last night and drove the yield down to 4.06%… I said the other day that the Fed Heads were working diligently to get the 10-year’s yield lower…Why would they do that? Ahhh, grasshopper, come sit, and take a listen…  The Fed Heads are under strict orders to get inflation going again to help deal with the debt… And they are having a difficult time doing that, given that they cut interest rate 50 Basis Points, and the markets shrugged it off.. And now bond yields are rising, when they should be falling… Oh My! What’s a poor Fed Head to do? 

Yesterday’s FWIW article featured James Rickards and his thought on what’s driving investors around the world from the dollar…  And today, James Rickards talks about the BRICS and the rumor that they will be announcing a Gold Backed currency at their next meeting 10/22-24…  Well, isn’t that the same thing I talked about yesterday? So, once again this represents another voice for you to listen to…   

The thing I did fail to mention yesterday regarding this new potential Gold Backed Currency is that it won’t take the place of the dollar as the reserve currency in the world, right away… It will take time for countries to wait-n-see if the currency works… I’m sure that’s the bee in the bonnet of the people putting this currency together… 

I read an article on Bloomberg.com about how the Aussie dollar is receiving a ton of interest and flyers to buying it from hedge fund guys. And the reason they are doing so, is the stimulus that China introduced a couple of weeks ago… If you’ve forgotten what I explained to you, years ago, then come sit, grasshopper, and listen….   China and Australia are HUGE trading partners… And anything that promotes trading of goods and services is good for both currencies… And since the Chinese renminbi has already seen a ton of buying, the attention now goes to the Aussie dollar (A$)…  And what do I always tell you to do? Follow the money! 

The jury is still out on the Chinese stimulus, but from the reports I read, it’s only a matter of time for them to begin working…   

The Good Folks at GATA sent me a note yesterday from researcher Alasdair Macleod, game a speech the other day and had this to say: ” Inflation isn’t finished but the dollar soon may be”…  So, he’s also on board with the thought that the BRICS Gold Backed Currency will be the kryptonite that ruins the dollar’s day… The bandwagon of people that believe this about the BRICS currency, is growing by leaps and bounds, folks… Are you on it? 

Speaking of Gold…  did you hear the news?  This in from the good folks at GATA: ” the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange have just announced what they call the first gold-backed college scholarships of the modern era. The sponsors are putting aside 100 ounces of gold to underwrite seven scholarships, ranging from $500 to $2,500, starting this year. Five of the scholarships are available to high school seniors and undergraduate students and two to graduate students.”

Chuck again… The youngsters applying for this scholarships must write a response to 4 questions that are asked, of which one of them goes like this: “- How has the Federal Reserve System helped or hurt the American economy?

Man, do I ever wish that I was a young man, knowing what I know now so that I could answer the questions and win that scholarship!  

And going further with Gold this morning…  Ed Steer featured a video in his letter last week, where Gold was discussed getting revalued…   I have a piece of the video’s verbiage, that can be found here: Gold Revaluation Could SHOCK People | Andy Schectman (youtube.com)  here’s the piece I have for you: “Miles Franklin Precious Metals CEO Andy Schectman asserts that central banks are strategically accumulating gold, while hinting at a potential revaluation that could significantly impact the global economy. He references a historical conversation involving Henry Kissinger, emphasizing that maintaining a gold standard provides countries with substantial leverage in international finance. Andy believes that this revaluation could be a method for central banks to manage debt and inflation without resorting to outright hyperinflation or default. He warns that as more people begin to recognize gold’s value, the availability of precious metals will dwindle, making proactive investment crucial now. Ultimately, he posits that those who hold gold will hold the power in an increasingly uncertain financial landscape.”

Chuck again…  Hey! I kinda like it when I can get quotes from people that use up all the space of my letter! HA!

Before we head to the Big Finish today….  Well, I need to apologize for the wrong header to yesterday’s Pfennig…  I forgot to change it, simple as that, no excuses… Like I was up most of the night… No… I simply forgot…  The heading was supposed to be: What’s Going On Here?

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have any real economic data for us today, or tomorrow,  and on Thursday, we’ll see Retail Sales for Sept. And Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for Sept… So, nothing today or tomorrow and Thursday will be busy…  The Butler Household Index (BHI ) indicates that Retail Sales will show a fair amount of sales in the month of Sept….  I recall many days of deliveries being left at our door! 

To recap… The dollar buying that took place Sunday night/ /Monday morning ended in the U.S. session yesterday… But there was no dollar selling or profit taking,  going on yesterday, so the BBDXY ended the day up 5 index points that were made in the overnight session… Gold & Silver went through gyrations yesterday to end up in the same clothes they were in during the early morning trading… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, lookie here! We have the great Ray Dalio for our FWIW writer this morning…  Ray proposes a good question this morning about ownership of Gold, and it can be found here: If You Don’t Own Gold, You Know Neither History Nor Economics -Ray Dalio – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:  “In a recent series of interviews, billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, has sounded the alarm on an impending economic paradigm shift that could dramatically reshape the financial landscape. Dalio, known for his deep understanding of economic history and market cycles, is urging investors to reconsider their portfolio strategies, with a particular emphasis on gold allocation

“If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics,” Dalio emphatically stated, underscoring the precious metal’s crucial role in navigating the turbulent economic waters ahead.

Dalio’s concerns stem from what he perceives as unsustainable levels of government and corporate debt, coupled with aggressive central bank policies that are devaluing currencies. He predicts that within the next 18 months, we may witness a significant economic contraction and a restructuring of debt and finance that will catch many unprepared.

“We are currently in the late and perilous phase of the long-term debt cycle,” Dalio explained. “The levels of debt assets and liabilities have soared to such heights that it has become challenging to offer lender-creditors a sufficiently high interest rate in relation to inflation.”

The investment guru foresees a challenging scenario where the U.S. Treasury will be forced to issue substantial amounts of debt, potentially surpassing available demand. This could lead to either significantly higher interest rates or extensive money printing by the Federal Reserve, further devaluing the currency.

In light of these projections, Dalio is advocating for a minimum 10-15% allocation to gold in investment portfolios. He views gold as a crucial diversifier and a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainties.”

Chuck again…Nothing new here… Especially the allocation ratios…  for over 15 years, I spoke at conferences all over North America, Central America and even in London, once and I would tell attendees that they needed to have an allocation of 10-15% in metals for their investment portfolios, when Gold’s price was strong, and even going as high as 20%… So, what’s your allocation?   

Market Prices 10/15/2024: American Style: A$.6719, kiwi .6094, C$ .7235, euro 1.0907, sterling 1.3079, Swiss $1.1605, European Style: rand 17.5591, krone 10.7103, SEK 10.3592, forint 357.18, zloty 3.9369, koruna 23.1401, RUB 94.25, yen 149.25, sing 1.3088, HKD 7.7676, INR 84.03, China 7.1137, peso 19.51, BRL 5.6052,  Dollar Index 103.12, Oil $70.71, 10-year 4.06%, Silver $31.30, Platinum $988.00, Palladium $1,020.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $2,656.12

That’s it for today… Well, my breathing is getting much better, and the water weight is dropping off me quickly… I need to keep improving the breathing so I can return the oxygen tanks and oxygen making machine…  it is what it is, but it is a pain in the rear! I’m still holding out hope that I won’t need the surgery to take the fluid away from my heart… Kathy’s aunt said to me on Sunday, “I bet you wish you could just be back to my normal self”…    I thought about that later, and thought, “my normal self, is that before or after cancer?”  oh well… Life goes one…  my appt. calendar gets really full the rest of the week starting tomorrow..  On Friday, this week I have 2 doctor appts!  Everybody wants to see that I’m still alive!  Tommy Tutone takes us to the finish line today with his 80’s song: 867-5309/ Jenny…  Every band in the 80’s played that song… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and I hope you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Currencies & metals rally late last week…
• But get sold in the overnight markets last night!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… This is, for some of us, Columbus Day, and for other that like to burst balloons, Indigenous Peoples Day… I used to take Columbus Day off, and not write, but now that I’m so far behind I just had to write today… So, it’s the Dodgers/ Mets in the NLCS, and Yankees/ Indians (I mean Guardians) in the ALCS… These baseball games have been exciting and thrilling at times… A good Playoffs year for Baseball so far! Before I go any further, I want to acknowledge all the dear readers who sent me a note regarding my latest bout with health… Thank you so much, from the bottom of my heart, they are all truly appreciated! 

Well, the dollar is still strong, and has me scratching my bald head, wondering what the heck is going on here?  Interest rates will be lowered in the future, maybe not at a quick rate the markets all want, but lowered nevertheless… I told you before that rate cuts equal debasing for the country’s currency…  And right now the dollar is set to be submitted to quite a bit of debasing… So, why is the dollar strong? 

On Thursday last week, the dollar ran into some selling but, that was just it, it was just “some selling”, and the BBDXY lost 2 index points to 1,243…  Not exactly a “selloff”… Of any stripe… And on Friday, the BBDXY lost 1 index point to end the week at 1,242… 3 index points are not going to get the currencies out of their respective sick beds… 

In Gold & Silver, after spending multiple days in the short paper traders trance, finally broke away on Thursday… Gold gained $23 and Silver gained .63-cents, and then they both followed  those gains with more gains on Friday, as Gold gained $27 to end the week at $2,656.90, and Silver gained 39-cents to end the week $31.50

I’ll say this now, so maybe you’ll hear me later… With all the saber rattling going on with the U.S. in the middle of it, one would think that Gold would be a one-way ticket to Happy Days…   With Silver going along for the ride! 

In addition, countries all over the world are back to easing rates… Last week, we had the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates again, and this time they cut their Official Cash Rate 50 Basis Points to 4.75%… In line with the dollar, but not a good thing for kiwi…  

The price of Oil ended the week with a $75 handle… All the saber rattling is helping the price of Oil stabilize… And the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 4.10% yield… I have to believe that the Fed Heads are doing their best to keep this yield from going higher… So, I guess we’ll see who wins…   the bond boys or the Fed Heads… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Whoa there Nelly! What on earth is going on here? The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair last night, and the BBDXY is up 4 index points this morning…  I just don’t get it, but, as I always say, it is what it is…  So, the dollar is in rally mode this morning to start our week… Gold is seeing some selling in the early trading and is down $5 to start our day/ week. Silver too, is down 26-cents… This is a typical Monday morning, as far as I’m concerned… Rainy days and Mondays always get me down…  I really couldn’t answer the bell this morning to start it off too!  

The price of Oil dipped to $74 overnight, and the 10-year is trading at 4.10%…  Come to think of it, this bulging 10-year’s yield, could be one reason why the dollar is so strong these days… But, IF the 10-year is getting bought, along with the dollar, we would see some weakness in the yield…  So, that theory has got some work to do, before going prime time… 

Well, did you get your notice from the SSA that most likely you will receive a 2.5% raise in your SSA check for 2025? That is the COLA increase… Cost of Living adjustment…  Wait, What?  John Williams tells me that consumer inflation is running about 8%… Shouldn’t the COLA be closer to that number? Oh, well, the premiums for Medicare will just increase as much, so don’t go buying a boat with your increase! 

At a Conference years ago, I stood on a stage and told the crowd that the newly formed BRICS would one day be something to reckon with…  I had many attendees stop by the booth and tell me how wrong I was that the BRICS wouldn’t be around in 10 years, etc. etc. I wish I could go back in time with what I know about the BRICS now! Pretty soon, on the calendar, the BRICS will have their annual meeting and there are some that think that the BRICS will introduce a new Gold Backed currency… Now, I’m not one to spread rumors, so I’ll just say that it would be incredible if they did announce a new Gold Backed currency… Talk about a way to get investors interested in your new currency!  We won’t have to wait too long to see if the rumors are true, as the BRIX will next meet Rocktober 22-24… 

Well, there was an article on Bloomberg.com this morning about how the euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting….  I talked about this last week in my one Pfennig in the last two weeks! So, that’s got me thinking that the Bloomberg.com writer of the story got his idea from the Pfennig?  Now that would be a hoot, wouldn’t it? There was a time when I was the only “go-to” for the media who wanted to know what was going on in the currency markets…  I would be the only speaker at conferences that would be taking about the currencies, and so forth…  But that’s no more…  Everybody and their brothers writes about the currencies now-a-days…  

Not that that information is what you opened the email to read, so sorry about that but once again my fat fingers started flying across the laptop, and there you go! 

It appears that the higher for longer idea about interest rates around the world is coming to an end…. And looking back on it, the idea didn’t really pan out, did it?  I don’t feel that interest rates here in the U.S. were ever “high”, and I certainly don’t believe that interest rate levels didn’t last very long… So, once again false advertising from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… And the rest of the world is just following what the Fed Heads do.. So, shame on them for not having any intestinal fortitude to actually fight inflation…

Speaking of inflation… Even using the STUPID CPI, inflation showed once again that it is sticky, and not going away that easily, as the Fed Heads would have you believe… The consumer price index rose 2.4% in September from 12 months earlier, slightly higher than the 2.3% expected, and that fact brought CBS news to proclaim that “U.S. inflation continued to cool in September. ”  Wait, What? What on earth were they looking at?   I shake my head in disbelief that they get away with the lies, I mean things they come up with… 

The U.S. Cupboard this week is pretty lacking until Thursday, that is… I talked last week about the multiple of Fed Speakers there our on the speaking circuit, and how i wondered if at least one of them might say something worth our time?   Well, the answer to that question is a big fat NO!  All those speakers and not one of them said anything worth the paper their notes were printed on…  (The stupid outlook program that tries to soften my writing is at it again, and once again I ignore it!)

To recap… Well, on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar saw a small amount of selling…  But in the overnight markets last night the dollar got bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair!  Gold & Silver got bought late last week, but are seeing some selling to start our week today… Euro traders are preparing for more headaches ahead of the next ECB meeting, as Chuck first talked about last week!  

For What It’s Worth…  Above this morning, I talked about the BRICS, and the rumor that they would be announcing a new Gold Backed currency, and IF true that would change the currency markets going forward… And then I came across this article by James Rickards, that talks about how change goes slowly and then suddenly, and it can be found here: Gradually, Then Suddenly – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30–40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Then in 1944, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing.

Today, the existing monetary system is over 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a change.

I’ve written for years about different nations’ persistent efforts to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the leading global reserve currency and the main medium of exchange.

At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades.

While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, the U.S. initiated the most aggressive sanctions regime ever in its efforts to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.

The first round of financial targets included obvious attacks such as freezing the U.S. dollar accounts of Russian banks and oligarchs. The second round raised the ante by freezing the dollar accounts of the Central Bank of Russia itself. This was unprecedented except in the case of rogue states such as Iran, North Korea and Syria.

Suddenly the central bank of the world’s ninth-largest economy and third-largest oil producer with over $2.1 trillion in GDP found itself shut out of the global payments and banking systems.

They U.S. is  also driving countries away from using dollars in international transactions for fear that they could become the next target of U.S. displeasure.

I’ve been warning about this for years. Almost 10 years ago, I sat in a secure conference room at the Pentagon and explained to a group of U.S. national security officials from the military, CIA, Treasury and other agencies that the overuse of the U.S. dollar in financial warfare would eventually compel nations to seek dollar alternatives.”

Chuck again… As always, James Rickards’ writings are bang on…  

Market Prices 10/14/2024: American Style: A$ .6705, kiwi .6071, C$ .7298, euro 1.0909, sterling 1.3034, Swiss $1.1589, European Style; rand 17.5155, krone 10.7818, SEK 10.4379, forint 367.82, zloty 3.9328, koruna 23.1412, RUB 96.43, yen 149.78, sing 1.3087, HKD 7.7618, INR 83.05, China 7.0888, peso 19.35, BRL 5.6348, BBDXY 1,247.09. Dollar Index 103.29, Oil $74.01, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $31.24, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,040.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $2,651.73

That’s it for today… Yesterday we celebrated our little Evie’s 5th birthday…  She is so darned cute!  My first granddaughter, Delaney Grace, was there shortly, and my mind kept going back in time to when Delaney was 5…  Strange how the mind works, eh? My beloved Mizzou Tigers got back on the winning tracks last Saturday, hopefully they’ve learned their lesson about how to be prepared for an opponent! I fell asleep last night watching the Dodgers bash the Mets in game 1 of the NLCS… Isn’t this how we all thought the NL would go this year, with the Dodgers going to the World Series?  You get what you pay for, is the old adage that’s appropriate here… And ex-Cardinals pitcher, threw the shutout for the Dodgers… UGH! Mitch Ryder and the Detroit Wheels take us to the finish line this morning, with their song: Jenny Take A Ride/ CC Rider… A real seat dancing song!  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• It’s all about the dollar these days…
• China is back from their weeklong holiday…

Good Day… And a tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! You’ll have to excuse me from participating in any Tub Thumpin’, folks… One thought I had about the last week, while I was in the hospital… Is that, I feel like I’m way too young to have these problems! But, then I think about my age, and next March, I’ll turn 70!  I met a doctor in the hospital for the first time who was absolutely amazed that I was still kicking it, after my cancer diagnosis 18 years ago!  He said, “Who lives 18 years with metastatic renal cell carcinoma?” This guy! Supertramp greets me this morning with their song: Take The Long Way Home… 

Ok, so do you want to know what my major problems are?  If not, simply go down 2 paragraphs, where the markets talk begins…  It’s all about cancer and chemo…  You see, the chemo that I was taking, caused my body to retain water, and before I knew it, I had gained 40 pounds… I also have fluid around my heart, that is very disturbing to me…  It will have to be gotten rid of either by medicine or with very risky surgery…  That fluid is causing my breathing and blood oxygen to plummet…  So, I now have a oxygen tank following me everywhere I go… UGH!…  So, the jury is still out on how the medicine will do as far as removing the fluid…    

OK, I talked about how the chemo I was taking caused all this water/ fluid buildup… So, why not stop taking the chemo?  And I did… But the problem in the weeds here is that this chemo was the very last chemo that is directed at kidney cancer that is out there…  I’ve taken them all in 18 years, as there is no one out there that thought anyone would still be alive to take chemo after 18 years…   So, now the tumor in my mouth, without taking anything to stop its growth, is growing quickly… So, now I’m going to have to have it degrowthed, with surgery…  This is a recurring trend isn’t it?  So, there are my two health problems in a nutshell… I really don’t know how I’ll be able to get through all this, and still dedicate my time to writing the Pfennig…  But, I’ll carry on, my wayward son, (Kansas) despite my short-comings… 

Ok… What on earth has gone on in my absence? The dollar was teetering on the edge of the cliff, and now it’s soaring once again… What changed? Well, first, we had the PPT enter the markets and buy dollars once again, and that put a tourniquet around the bleeding dollar, and since then, everything I read is about how the markets don’t believe the Fed Heads about cutting rates more this year… 

The currencies have all been returned to their respective sick beds… Even the currencies with higher interest rates than the dollar…  The Petrol Currencies, sans the ruble, are holding their ground VS the dollar, but that’s only a consolation… The price of Oil has recovered nicely, and trades with a $75 handle… And all those people that bought the 10-year Treasury thinking that it would continue to rally with the thought that the Fed Heads were in a rate cutting cycle, have BIG losses as the 10-year’s yield is up to 4.05%…. Just two weeks ago, after the Fed cut rates 50 Basis Points, the 10-year’s yield dropped to 3.68%…  When I used to trade bonds, I could calculate the loss in bond price from a move in yields like that… But that talent escaped me long ago….  Just trust me on this, that’s a BIG loss for those bond holders, should they panic and attempt to get out of the bond…  I’m just saying… 

And Gold & Silver have seen their gains chopped down by the short paper traders…  The two metals have seen days where they rally, only to be squashed by the short paper traders the next day…  Monday, was one of those days where the metals rallied… Now, if the trend continues, they’ll get sold on Tuesday, and that’s exactly what happened…  UGH!  The demand for physical Gold is still strong, and that’s the reason the short paper traders are in the markets daily…  

In the overnight markets last night…  Well the dollar bugs have all shut down until they see the color of the STUPID CPI today…  The BBDXY is flat this morning at 1,244…  Gold and Silver have clocked in on a day when they get bought… Gold is up $5 and silver i up 9-cent to start the day today…  I have a quote for you from Ed Steer’s letter this morning… Here’s Ed: “s I keep saying — and you should already know by now, precious metal prices in particular — and all commodity prices in general would be eye-popping values if the commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t watching over them 24/7.” Ed can be found www.edsteergoldsliver.com

Remember after Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, announced that the Fed Heads has voted to cut rates 50 Basis Points, and I said, ” The last time the Fed Heads cut rates 50 Basis Point, was in the middle of the Great Financial Crises., so is that what we have to look forward to? Or… Was this just the Fed Heads kowtowing to their masters, Wall Street?  I would have to believe that this was the latter of the two… And was more political than anything else.”   

Well, it seems that thought that it was a political move is really catching on… Here’s a headline news story that came my way, “Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure”  if you want to read the article it can be found here: Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure

The European Central Bank (ECB ) cut rates at their last meeting, and is being thought of as in a rate cut cycle, so that means that more rate cuts will come…  And that won’t help the euro…  Another thing that I saw the other day was that Physical Gold had replaced the euro as the number 2 reserve of Central Banks around the world…  Yet, another chink in the armor of the euro…  I’m just saying…   But remember, as the offset to the dollar, the euro has proven through the years, that it can rally when the dollar is getting sold, no matter what the economic fundamentals show in the eurozone….. 

The folks over at The Motley Fool, pointed out last week that Money Supply is growing again in 2024… Uh-Oh! Money Supply equals inflation… I’ll go to my grave saying those words… In fact maybe I can get Kathy to put that on my grave marker….    This growth of money supply is the reason that I think the Fed Heads’ thought that they have defeated inflation is a pipe dream…   

And the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC didn’t wait too long after returning from their weeklong holiday to allow the renminbi to gain a lot VS the dollar, thus making up for their time away… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.07 handle… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard Tuesday had nothing but Fed Head speakers… Tons of them!  Maybe one of these knuckleheads said something that made sense….  Maybe….   Yesterday,  there were more Fed Head speakers, so they get another chance to say something profound!  In addition, we’ll see the color of the STUPID CPI for Sept….  This ought to be special as the church lady used to say…   I don’t trust any Gov’t report any longer, as all of them are being revised to show favorable results for the administration….   I just say, take them with only a few grains of salt, my dear reader friends… 

Unfortunately, the markets don’t view it logically like I do… They’ll take whatever number the Gov’t prints for the STUPID CPI as the gospel, and run with it… 

To recap…  the dollar is in a completely different pace than it was before Chuck left for the hospital last week… More intervention caused the change in the seasons for the dollar, and since then, it’s been all about how the markets are not fully behind the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel regarding their call for more rate cuts…  Chairman, Powell, tried to let the markets down softly, the other day by telling them that the Fed Heads are NOT in any hurry to cut rates…. And the metals take one step forward and two steps backward in trading… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, like I said above, the demand for physical Gold is still strong, and here’s some proof in the pudding for that statement… The article can be found here: Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge, Survey Finds | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Costco shoppers are purchasing the store’s 1-ounce gold bars at a high rate despite the precious metal’s record-high prices in recent months, according to a recent survey.

Around 77 percent of Costco outlets that sell bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, a Bloomberg survey found.

The news outlet and financial services company said it surveyed 101 stores in 46 states that sell gold and recently restocked the precious metal.

The apparently high number of sales comes even as gold prices have surged in the past year or so. In the past 12 months, gold is up about 41 percent, going from around $1,864 per ounce to $2,640 per ounce.

According to data provided by the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), the spot price for gold hit a record $2,686 per ounce on Sept. 26.

Costco started selling the 1-ounce gold bars in late 2023 in its stores and via its website, available only to members.

Since then, the company has started selling silver coins and now platinum bars and coins.

Wells Fargo in April estimated that the big-box retailer is selling up to $200 million in gold per month.

“Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and high level of customer trust,” Edward Kelly, an analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a note to clients at the time.

“The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick online sell-outs of product, and [Costco’s] robust monthly [ecommerce] sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch,” he added.

Meanwhile, Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip told Bloomberg that gold and silver are a “meaningful part” of the company’s growth, adding that Costco is happy to have the capacity to offer those products.”

Chuck again…  Think about this for a moment… Costco is a bulk items business, at sometimes discount price, which pretty much describes the clientele…  Nothing wrong with that, my wife, is a member!  The point I’m trying to make here is that these are different kinds of buyers, that don’t appear to be frightened by the high price of Gold…    I’m just saying, for all of you out there that have still got to increase your investment portfolio allocation to metals… 

Market Prices 10/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6715, kiwi .6072, C$ .7271, euro 1.0933, sterling 1.3011, Swiss $1.1633, European Style: rand 17.5990, krone 10.7840, SEK 10.3962, forint 366.29, zloty 3.9381, koruna 23.7650, RUB 97.44, yen 149.00, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7717, INR 83.87, China 7.0774, peso 19.48, BRL 5.5931, BBDXY 1,244.67, Dollar Index 102.96, Oil $74.13 10-year 4.09%, Silver $30.59, Platinum $956.00, Palladium $ 1,048.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,612.80

That’s it for today… Well, I really did want to write yesterday, but I couldn’t answer the bell in the morning…  And by the time I did awake, the markets were going full swing… So I wouldn’t have been able to give you any foresight to make a markets decision…  thinking back to the last week… My poor arms and hands, from al the needle sticks into them… OUCH! If I had been in a car wreck and the paramedics looked at my arms they  would think I was a drug addict! I had some great nurses last week, Becky, and Lauren were the best! I’ll be sure to mention that when they send my survey! What the hell was that from my beloved Mizzou Tigers last week?  I told them that they couldn’t come out flat in SEC games, and they did’t listen!   And now a team that was well thought of in August, is out of the College playoffs picture… There’s still time to get back into the picture, but there has to be a change in this team’s intestinal fortitude…. I’m just saying….   Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Rikki Don’t Lose That Number… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today… And that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

Good Day… and I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday today… I’m not sure what’s going on with me… but I’m headed to the hospital this morning to see if they can figure out why my blood oxygen level has dropped so quickly to dangerous levels …

So no Pfennig today… 

Tell you more tomorrow 

chuck Butler

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  My beloved Cardinals ended their season yesterday with a win, thus giving them 12 more wins in 2024 than they got in 2023.   Of course, it wasn’t good enough to get them into the playoffs…. Barbara Lewis greets me this morning with her song: Hello Stranger…

Well, last Thursday, the proof was in the pudding, as you may recall me accusing the PPT for the dollar “recovery” on Wednesday… But on Thursday, the dollar went right back into getting sold… The BBDXY had fallen to 1,218 on Tuesday only to see the PPT enter and buy dollars driving the BBDY up to 1,226 on Wednesday… Then Thursday was the dollar go right back down to 1,217…  So, if that’s not illustrative enough for anyone to see how the dollar was saved on Wednesday by the PPT, then it’s time to get your glasses checked….  

Gold gained $16 on Thursday to a new all-time high of $2,673.50, and Silver gained 21-ents to end the day at $31.98…

That’s all good and that, but you should have seen these two metals kicking some tail and taking names later, during the day on Thursday…  I’ll let you read a snippet from Ed Steer on what he saw “It was yet another one of those days where all four precious metals would have closed at some fantastic price in a short covering rally for the ages if the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe hadn’t appeared.

Gold closed at another new nominal high price. Although it finished the Thursday trading session up $16.80 in the spot market, it only closed higher by $10.20 in its current front month, which is December. Its high tick in that month was $2,708.50 — but was hauled lower and closed below $2,700. If they hadn’t, it’s a certainty that it would have closed with a ‘3’ handle yesterday. As it is, gold is now showing hugely overbought on its RSI trace.

The interference in silver was even more egregious. It was capped very shortly after it broke pennies above $33.00 in the December contract…its current front month as well — and they then had the audacity to close it below $32 in the spot market. But if they hadn’t shown up, it’s a near certainty that silver would easily taken out its old $50 nominal highs of yesteryear.” – Ed Steer from his newsletter: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Chuck again…  when Ed mentioned $50 for Silver, it reminded me of an article I wrote for a major magazine back in the day that was titled “Silver is the new Gold”, and I touted how Silver would soon be trading at $50, and then it did… But soon after that the trap door was sprung under Silver and it traded at $50 no more…. I never received an invitation to write another article for the magazine… I wondered why?  HA! 

On Friday, after the 2nd QTR’s GDP was revised unchanged at 3.0% growth, due to Gov’t spending, I might add, the dollar rallied a bit, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points to 1,220….  The reason for the rally? Well, the markets came to the conclusion that if GDP was so strong the Fed Heads might not need to cut rates so sharply…  To that, I say, balderdash! The Fed Heads have their “dot plot” for interest rates, and they already have them down another 50 Basis Points going into year-end….  

Friday also saw a ton of economic data…  I’ll get to that in the Data Cupboard section today, but all-in-all, the data wasn’t especially that good… So, stay tuned from that commentary later this morning…  The short paper traders liked their work on Thursday so much, that they came back for more on Friday, and sent Gold & Silver reeling… 

Gold ended the week down $ $15.60 to close at $2,657.90… and Silver was down 36-cents to close the week at $31.61…

The dollar was range bound on Friday and the BBDXY closed the week at 1217….

That’s down from a week ago when it started the week at 1,222…And a month ago the BBDXY was 1,240!   So, even when the PPT steps in to save the dollar they don’t stop the boil … Yes this is like the frog in a pot of water… if you drop a frog in boiling water it will jump out… but if you drop a frog in a pot of water and slowly turn up the heat…. you have cooked frog.!  

So if the dollar bears want a cooked dollar, they’ll have to apply heat on the dollar at a slow pace so to not awaken the dollar bugs….  

I don’t have any internet on my laptop this morning I have no idea what’s going on… my phone and TV have internet but not my laptop and iPad…  I’m actually writing this on my phone this morning…. so they’ll be no FWIW this morning…..

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was bought a bit with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points… Gold is getting sold in the early trading today and is down $18 to start the day/week… Silver, too, is getting sold and is down 42-cents to start the day/ week,,,, 

The Petrol Currencies are not performing well with the price of Oil getting whacked… Currencies like the ruble, krone, and others are not being able to gain while the dollar is weak because of the weakness in the price of Oil, which trades this morning with a $68 handle…

I’ll have more for you tomorrow if I can get my laptop fixed today… no wait! Not tomorrow but on Wednesday!  No Pfennig tomorrow…

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week saw Personal Income up .2% and Personal Spending up.3%..,. One step forward and a half step back…. ugh!

We also saw the Aug. PCE. And it came in at 2.2%…. I know I don’t have to remind you that it’s an Election Year….this data should have sent the dollar reeling but it didn’t thus validating the markets feeling for it’s truthfulness…. I’m just saying…

This week’s Data Cupboard is off and on this real economic data, and will end the week with the Jobs Jamboree on Friday…

To recap the dollar is down from month to month and Chuck thinks the dollar is the frog in the pot of water…

Market Prices 9/30/2024: American Style: A$ ,6921, kiwi .6350, C$ .7393, euro 1.1186, sterling 1.3388, Swiss 1.1841, European Style:  rand 17.1845, krone 10.5330, SEK 10.1132, forint 355.57, zloty 3.6259, koruna 22.5247, RUB 93.09, yen 142.68, sing 1.2814, HKD 7.7670, INR 83.80, China 7.0121, peso 19.66, BRL 5.4340, BBDXY 1,219.18, Dollar Index 100.37, Oil $68.21, 10-year 3.77%, Silver $31.15, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $997.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $2,639.91

That’s it for today and tomorrow I’ll have to go see someone about my laptop today…UGH!  I’m sure glad my TV didn’t bug out on me yesterday! My health doesn’t seem to be getting any better… still coughing in the morning… still weak… and now since I’m back on chemo my stomach is upset all the time!   And sleep?  Yes I sleep a lot these days…but I carry on despite my shortcomings….  The Doobie Brothers take us to the finish line today with their song: Dark Eyed Cajun Woman… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today. And Pleas Br Good To  Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler

Creator & Editor of:

A Pfennig For Your Thoughts

• The dollar gets saved from falling off the cliff again by the PPT
• Is the Gold price suppression getting exposed?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Again last night, my beloved Cardinals found timely hitting in their bats… Where has that been all year?  I know I’m being hard on the Beaver, June, but he deserves what I’m giving him!   This afternoon, I’ll be hooking up with some of my classmates… This is a unique group of classmates, as they stretch across all social genres… Everyone else is still a “working stiff”, while I’m the only that’s retired… And so on… The band, Yes, greets me this morning with their great 70’s song: Roundabout… 

Well, all that talk yesterday morning about how this latest bout of selling that the dollar was seeing, could turn into something BIG, got thrown out with the bath water yesterday, as the dollar was bought like the dollar bugs were giving away something for free!  The BBDXY gained 9 index points on the day… Now, you know that i didn’t just fall of a turnip truck, nor did I just walk into town without know what’s going on… And to me, this walks like, talks like, and smells like the PPT went to the buy dollars yesterday with both guns blazing…  There is no way in hell that this was just a “correction”, or the dollar bouncing… 

There was no data to give anyone an idea that the dollar should be bought… And it was oversold on it Relative Strength Index (RSI), this was a case of all hands-on deck to save the dollar/ Titanic from sinking…  The euro, which yesterday was sniffing around 1.12, lost over ½ cent…  And the rest of the currencies followed suit… 

The only currency to gain VS the dollar yesterday was the Chinese renminbi… Yes, the renminbi saw its price gain a bit VS the dollar and ended the day trading with a 7.01 handle…. 

Gold fluctuated all day yesterday, up, down, and all around, but ended the day flat at $2,657.50….  And Silver which was down 21-cents to start the day ended the day down 28-centst at $31.80…  I read an article from a trader at Goldman Sachs that talked about how the phones on his metals desk were ringing off the hook, that the demand for physical Gold was very strong…  So, there’s Lola’s viewpoint…   

There was a report last night that was written by a Gold analyst, who believes that Gold is in its second rally, that will take it beyond $3,000….  He said that the first rally, which is still going on, was all the Central Bank buying, but now he believes that the individual buying is taking over… I’ll have to get with my metals guru and see if he’s seeing this kind of activity from the moms and pops… 

The main thing on Gold yesterday was that it was much higher at one point in the day yesterday (by $15) only to see the short paper traders take that out, easily… 

Even with reports calling for increased demand for Oil from the U.S., the price of Oil got marked down to end the day with a $69 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw some selling yesterday, and it’s yield rose to 3.79%… 

In the overnight markets last night… It’s difficult to tell what went on last night, as there is no BBDXY report this morning… This happens from time to time, and then I have to lean on the old Dollar Index, which is off a bit this morning from where it ended yesterday. The Dollar Index, which yesterday was 100.44, is trading at 100.83 this morning, so you see the damage the PPT caused yesterday, mainly to the euro, which is the overbearing component of the Dollar Index…  Yesterday, I was talking about how the old Dollar Index was falling so fast that we should look for a dip below 100…  But not today…  

And just showing that you can’t keep a good asset class down… Gold is up $22 to start the day today, and Silver is up 67-cents!  Shoo, short paper traders, go away!   

The price of Oil fell out of bed last night after there were reports/ rumors that the Saudi’s are going to drop their $100 price target for Oil…   Oil is priced with a $67 handle this morning… And the 10-year trades in the same clothes it wore yesterday, at 3.76% yield… 

Well, what have we here?  Ok, I know that’s not fair, for I hadn’t given you anything to read yet…  So, let me set this up… The Good Folks at GATA sent me this “Are federally insured banks trading monetary metals derivatives for the government?

In their report today at Wall Street on Parade, Pam and Russ Martens marvel at the increasing amount of stock, foreign exchange, and derivatives trading that has been moved into federally insured banks by Wall Street megabanks, federally insured banks that hold most deposits for ordinary Americans.

The Martenses also marvel at the explosion of monetary metals derivatives trading by federally insured banks. They write:

“According to the most recent Office of the Comptroller of the Currency report, in the first quarter of 2024, federally-insured banks held $438.60 billion in precious metals contracts. That figure is at least 12 times greater than the amount the same banks held in precious metal contracts in any quarter from 2007 through 2018.”

Chuck again… As longtime readers, ( I even had a reader tell me yesterday that he had been reading the Pfennig since 1993!)  you’ll remember me saying this about Gold / Silver suppression… That’s it’s all generated by the Gov’t…  I even printed a Wikileaks report back in the day, that had a conversation with Kissinger and a high-ranking Senator that had them talking about how they couldn’t allow Gold to become more popular than the dollar…  This is the reason that these Casino Banks never get their leaders sent to jail when the suppression is exposed… The Casino Bank just gets a slap on the wrist in fines that don’t equal a day’s trading profits in metals suppression…  So, in my humble opinion, the answer to the question is a resounding YES!  Federally Insured Banks are trading monetary Metals Derivatives for the Gov’t!   

So… I got that off my chest this morning!   here’s something else that’s been bugging me and that is that the Gov’t’s holding of physical Gold hasn’t been audited in 50 years!   The Good Folks at GATA sent me something on this that I have for the FWIW article today, so stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel, for the FWIW… 

Well, it seems that there was outside help for the short paper traders in keeping the price of Gold in check in the first half of this year…  Here’s the skinny: “The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) disclosed that it sold gold during the first half of the year, following a report identifying the central bank as the largest precious metal seller for that period.”  

Chuck again… Geez, Louise… Are these people as dense as the Bank of England, who sold their Gold holdings back 25 years ago, and look what Gold has done since then?   My spider sense is tingling this morning that there is more to this story than what’s up front… My conspiracy hat on tells me that they were instructed to sell Gold by the U.S. Gov’t… Now that would make headlines bold wouldn’t it? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard finally has something for us this morning…  Ok, yes, yesterday we saw that New Home Sales had collapsed even with falling mortgage rates, but that data didn’t move the markets…  This morning we’ll see the color of Durable Goods Orders for August, which I’m thinking will be negative… In addition, we’ll see another revision to 2^nd QTR GDP, which previously printed at 3.00% ( Lots of Gov’t spending was the catalyst in that number)…. If we see a downward revision, the Fed Heads will be slapping each other’s backs… I’m just saying…

To recap… Well, someone, somewhere, somehow bought dollars like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, (Read the PPT) and the BBDXY gained 9 index points on the day, thus saving the dollar once again from falling off the cliff…  Gold was flat on the day, after the short paper traders took their pound of flesh…  And Silver turned a negative morning to a positive ending!    Is the short paper trading scheme finally getting exposed?  Well, if you read the wallstreetonparade.com letters…. They are doing the exposing!  it’s been 50 years since the last, for show, audit took place of Fort Knox’s Gold reserves… That’s shameful in my book, where in the bank I was audited by inside auditors and outside auditors every year, and the OCC, and the Fed, and so on… 

 For What it’s Worth… Well, I teased you a bit above about how I had something on the Fed’s no auditing of our Gold reserves, and now it’s time to produce!  The article can be found here: 50-Year Anniversary of the Notorious Show Audit of Fort Knox Gold (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Sound Money Defense League’s policy assistant, Matthew Cortez, notes that today is the 50th anniversary of the U.S. Treasury Department’s public relations stunt at Fort Knox in Kentucky, wherein a few gold bars in one of the bullion depository’s 15 vault compartments were shown to members of Congress and some journalists.

This did nothing to verify that the rest of the U.S. government’s 8,133 tonnes of gold reserves were still in the government’s possession. Nor did the stunt do anything to ascertain whether any of the U.S. gold reserve was encumbered by leases or swaps with foreign central banks or bullion banks.

Suspicion remains in order, since the secret March 1999 staff report to the board of the International Monetary Fund, obtained by GATA in 2012, confirmed that the IMF, the official compiler of international gold reserves, allows member central banks to avoid distinguishing gold in the vault from gold being leased or swap — precisely to help conceal official intervention in the gold market:

That is, the bigger question about the U.S. gold reserve may be not whether there is still metal in Fort Knox but rather how many entities have a claim to it — whether it is, to put it politely, oversubscribed.

Cortez’s reminder is headlined “50-Year Anniversary of the Notorious ‘Show Audit’ of Fort Knox Gold”

Chuck again…  Yes, the book that I recommended everyone read a couple of years ago, explained how the U.S. Gov’t sanctioned the swaps and leases that took place that reduced the Gold reserves held….   I’m just saying… ( I’m having a Senior Moment, brain drain right now, and can’t recall the name of the book or the author)

Market Prices 9/26/2024: American Style: A$ .6883, kiwi .6311, C$ .7411, euro 1.1161, sterling 1.3380, Swiss $1.1813, European Style: rand 17.2834, krone 10.5268, SEK 10.1206, forint 354.86, zloty 3.8265, koruna 22.5435, RUB 92.84, yen 144.16, sing 1.2842, HKD 7.7793, INR 83.64, China 7.0114, peso 19.54, BRL 5.4228, Dollar Index 100.83, Oil $67.67, 10-year 3.76%, Silver $32.47, Platinum $1,012.00, and Palladium $1,068.00, Copper $4.58, and Gold… $2,679.14

That’s it for today, and this week… Well, my two weeks without dr appts ends tomorrow… Monday I meet my new eye doctor (my old eye doctor died!)  and Tuesday there will be no Pfennig as I report to the hospital for a visit with my oncologist…  By the way, I’m back on chemo, as my doc believes my blood level is strong enough now… So, I have that going for me!  I personally don’t feel like my blood level is strong enough, as I still huff and puff out of breath any time I try to walk across the room… And sleep? All the time!  Oh well, life goes on…  Well, no Mizzou Tigers this weekend, and my beloved Cardinals end their season on Sunday… UGH!  The Playoffs begin next week, so that will keep me busy watching those games… Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Blue Mist….  Mama’s Pride was a St. Louis Band, and one of its members went to the same high school I went to, and I would see him in the halls, and think “Wow, a rock star here”…   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, oh please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday…
• China adds stimulus to their economy…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Where has this drive to win games been all year for my beloved Cardinals? Suddenly, they are winning games that earlier this year, they would have lost… Not complaining, simply wondering….  Today is the “pick day” for us here in the Midwest, as rain will become a real problem for us the rest of the week, Rain from Hurrican Helene… I hope every that’s in its path for landfall has taken steps to either evacuate or hunker down….  Elvin Bishop greets me this morning with his song: Fooled Around And Fell In Love… 

Well, the light bulb above the dollar bugs finally came on yesterday, and they realized that they shouldn’t be buying dollars, but instead, they should be selling dollars… And sell them they did, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points on the day… The PPT was nowhere to be found yesterday, and makes you wonder, doesn’t it?  The dollar reached a low in the BBDXY that goes back to April 2022…  So, will the PPT allow the dollar to fall off the cliff here?  That, my friends, is the $64 question… 

While the dollar was getting sold yesterday, Gold & Silver went on the warpath against the dollar… Gold gained $29 on the day to close at $2.656.40, and Silver gained $1.43 to move through the $31 handle like a hot knife through butter and closed at $32.04….  It was interesting to see how high these two metals would trade in a day without interference from the short paper traders… 

I’m telling you now, so you might listen to me later,  that all the physical buying that’s going on in these metals is keeping the short paper traders on the sidelines, right now… Oh, don’t you worry, they’ll be back…  but right now would be suicide for them if they had tried to stop the metals run yesterday…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil rose to $71.50 yesterday… And the selling of the 10-year finally saw an end yesterday, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 3.74%… 

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar saw more selling, not a lot of selling, but some selling nonetheless…  The BBDXY has lost another index point overnight, and begins trading today at 1,217…  The Old Dollar Index begins today at 100.44…  Ok, I was thinking about this selling of the dollar, and wondering if this is the beginning of something BIG…  And then the thought crossed my mind that if the old Dollar Index would fall below 100, then it would confirm that the dollar has crossed over to a weak dollar trend…  So, as you can see there’s a lot of room here for the dollar to turn around, but in my mind, I just don’t see that happening this time. Yes, the PPT is like the wolf aways at the door, but for now they sat on their hands… And hopefully, that’s where they’ll stay! 

Gold is up a buck to start the day today, and silver is getting sold and this doesn’t look like profit taking… Silver is down 21-cents to start the day today… UGH!  it’s always two steps forward, one step back for Silver… The short paper traders just won’t lose their grip on Silver… I’m just saying…  But Silver was trading over $32 to end the day yesterday, and it will trade over $32 again… Mark my words on that! 

The price of Oil is down a bit and trades with a $70 handle… One would think, and that “one” is me, that all the goings on in the Middle East would have the price of Oil moving higher and higher by the day, because there will disruptions of deliver you can count on that…  The 10-year starts the day trading at 3.76% yield…   

I talked yesterday about how the Chinese renminbi had been on a Big Time Roll in recent times… I found this on FXSTREET.com that pointed to the reason the renminbi is on the rally tracks: “The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) announced a slew of stimulus measures in a joint briefing on Tue (24 Sep). The PBOC doubled down on its monetary policy easing by cutting both the interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen notes.”

Chuck again…  OK, I guess we’ll see how the Chinese stimulus works for their economy, when the stimulus in Japan, and the U.S. didn’t work… I get it, the Chinese have been doing this banking thing for 100’s of years before we had our clandestine meeting on Jekyll Island, Ga. In 1912-13, to form the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… So, Chances are, cause I wear a silly grin, the moment you come into view…. NO, WAIT!   C’mon Chuck, get with the program… Ok, sorry, but I love that song!  Chances are that the Chinese will get it right, and that’s the thoughts that are going through the markets right now and has the renminbi trading at levels it hasn’t seen in 8 years!  

The Aussie dollar has really been on a roll lately too, with the A$ climbing above.69-cents yesterday… It was kept from closing above .69-cents, after a softer than expected CPI printed…  I know, I know, a softer CPI would mean no rate cuts are coming, and that should have been good news for the A$… But, it is what it is… And if the A$ was traded above 69-cents yesterday, it will trade above it again…. I’m just saying…

The euro has put its debasing rate cut behind it now, and is back to ratcheting higher and is knock, knock, knocking on 1.12’s door!  And the rest of the currencies are now looking much healthier and able to move away from their respective sick beds… 

Again, I’m going to remind you of who told you 2 weeks ago, to back up the truck, and load up on currencies and metals…   Geez that sure would be looking pretty good right now, now wouldn’t it? 

No, I’m slapping myself on the back here, just reminding you that you were made aware of what I was seeing coming… 

And it all started with the idea that the FOMC was ready to debase the dollar with a rate cut… At that time the thought of a 50 Basis Points rate cut was just a wild idea that was floating around the markets… So, when the FOMC decided to cut 50 BPS it was a case of Katy bar the door!   Here’s CNN.com with their thought on the 50 BPS Rate cut…  “Oftentimes, the Fed cuts interest rates because it expects economic conditions will worsen drastically in the near future and it wants to preemptively soften the blow, knowing it sometimes can’t prevent a recession altogether.

The most well-known recession indicator stopped flashing red, but now another one is going off

So in that regard, it shouldn’t be too shocking that recessions frequently begin after the Fed cuts rates.

Excluding the rate cuts that happened during the pandemic, the Fed has had six cutting cycles since 1990. Starting from the point that the Fed began cutting, the economy has fallen into a recession 18 months later on average.”

So… There you have it… Some history behind the larger rate cut… 

And here’s a take on inflation after a huge rate cut from the same article: “Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who voted for a smaller quarter-point cut as opposed to the half-point cut other officials voted for, said in a statement Friday that she was concerned the larger cut could “unnecessarily” stoke demand, potentially ushering in more inflation.

The concerns are valid, based on past cutting cycles. For instance, after the Fed cut in 1996 and 2007, the annual pace of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by over a percentage point a year later.”

Chuck again…  the only thing that could save us from run-away inflation is HUGE job losses… Because if people are out of jobs, they won’t be able to chase the price of goods around… And cause them to rise…  And the other thing hanging over us like the Sword of Damocles is money supply…. If the Gov’t doesn’t take its foot off the pedal to the metal accelerator, then there’ll be no stopping inflation… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the STUPID Consumer Confidence for this month yesterday, and believe it or don’t, but the Index actually fell this month!  The index feel from 103.3 to 98.7… So, they actually polled some people that have been keeping up with what’s going on in the world, and not just stock jockeys…. The Cupboard is basically empty today… 

To recap… The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points on the day, and gold gaining $40 and Silver $1.14…   Chuck thinks the light bulb over the heads of the dollar bugs finally lit up and told them to not buy dollars, but sell them instead… And sell them they did!   China announced HUGE stimulus for their economy, Chuck thinks that China will make it work, rather than fail like it did for Japan and the U.S.  And the conflict in the Middle East is escalating, and that has lit a fire under the price of Oil… 

For What it’s Worth…. Well, I’ve talked about how I believe there will be a default by the U.S. at some point, and Treasuries will be pretty much worthless… Well, there was this article that came across my desk from the International Man (Doug Casey), and it’s Nick Giambruno talking about the U.S. has no other choice, and it can be found here: The US Government’s Debt Crisis: Why Bankruptcy Is Unavoidable and What It Means for You (internationalman.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:”The US government can no longer delay or disguise its impending bankruptcy.

The US federal government has the biggest debt in the history of the world. And it’s continuing to grow at a rapid, unstoppable pace.

First, let me put some crucial numbers and concepts into perspective.

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts casually toss around the word “trillion” without appreciating what it means.

A trillion is a massive, almost unfathomable number.

The human brain has trouble understanding something so huge.

Suppose you had a job that paid you $1 per second, or $3,600 per hour.

That amounts to $86,400 per day and about $32 million per year.

With that job, it would take you 31.5 years to earn a billion dollars.

With that job, it would take you over 31,688 YEARS to earn a trillion dollars.

To put that in perspective, if you earned $1 a second 24/7/365—about $31 million per year—it would take over 1,109,080 YEARS to pay off the US federal debt.

And that’s with the unrealistic assumption that it would stop growing.

In short, the US government can’t repay its debt. It can’t even pay the interest expense without going into further debt.

Default is inevitable.”

Chuck again…  This is a long article that can be read at the link above in its entirety… 

Market Prices 9/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6875, kiwi .6314, C$ .7440, euro 1.1199, sterling 1.3387, Swiss $1.1796, European Style: rand 17.1594, krone 10.4458, SEK 10.1003, forint 352.59, zloty 3.8060, koruna 22.4249, RUB 92.64, yen 144.29, sing 1.2943, HKD 7.7863, INR 83.60, China 7.0288, peso 19.45, BRL 5.4665, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 100.44, Oil $70.11, 10-year 3.76%, Silver $31.88, Platinum $998.00, Platinum $1,057.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,659.50

That’s it for today… Well, fall begins this Sunday…  I’ve always contended that the Fall weather in this area of the country is the best weather… Summer is going out with a whimper, and rain… And then Fall will begin with cool crisp mornings, warm days, and cool, sometimes chilly evenings.. Last year I received a Solo Stove, a smoke less fireplace, and I haven’t used it yet… I’ve got plenty of wood piled up out back, So, the first chance to sit around and talk around a firepit it’s going to used! I just found out that the first 15 hays of Rocktober I’ll be by myself here, as Kathy is heading to S. Florida with her relatives… No males were invited… So, once again, I’ll be All by Myself… Hello, Pizza Man Pizza?  This is Chuck, I need an extra-large Pizza… HA! The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Pictures Of You…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Friday last week
• The Chinese renminbi is on the move!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, did you remember yesterday that I had told you there would be no Pfennig on Monday? I was off having blood work done… My blood levels are still way below minimum levels… UGH! As my oncologist said, “At least it has stabilized”, but that’s no solace for me… I’m still weak, and out of breath all the time!  No baseball for me last night, so I was subjected to the NFL, without RedZone! UGH!  My beloved Cardinals only have 6 more games to play this year, after taking 2 of 3 from the Indians, I mean the Guardians… It’s a very strange feeling for me, when the baseball playoffs start, without the Cardinals… England Dan, and John Ford Coley greet me this morning with their song: Night Are Forever Without You… 

Well, last Friday, I saw the dollar falling in the BBDXY by 2 index points, to 1,220, and then suddenly it was 1,224…. 1220 was a multi-month low for the dollar and it looked to me as though the PPT had interfered with the dollar once again, to keep it from falling off a cliff… I know I questioned just how much more in funding the PPT has at its disposal in the past, but apparently, they had more than I anticipated… UGH!

But guess what happened then? The dollar ended the day / week flat at 1,223…   Gold on the other hand kicked some tail on Friday, but first it was up $10 on Thursday, and Then on Friday it was up $36.30 to close the week above $2,600 at $2,622.40… Silver got in on the buying on Friday, after seeing selling on Thursday that took it down 60-cents… But on Friday, Silver closed above $31 (Yay!) at 31.24 up 39-cents on the day…  

While we’re talking about Gold… The good folks at GATA sent me this snippet from Gold master, Andrew Maguire,      “Central banks not aligned with the United States have figured out U.S. gold price suppression policy and are blowing it away with steady purchases of physical gold, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand.

Maguire says there are many indications that these central banks plan to reincorporate gold into international trade payments, avoiding the U.S. dollar, and the more the U.S. Federal Reserve tries to knock the gold price down, the more those central banks acquire real metal.

Via intermediaries to evades U.S. and European Union economic sanctions, gold already is being used increasingly as a trade currency, Maguire adds.

Russian traders anticipate a gold price of $3,500 soon, Maguire says.”

Chuck again… WOW! Now wouldn’t that be the bee’s knees to have the short paper traders get sent to the woodshed, and made to stay there?   Now, that reminds me of what I’ve always told you about, what would end this short paper trading,  remember?  I always said that there was enough physical buying of Gold,  that it would run the short paper traders out of the market….  Well, bring it on, you foreign buyers… 

Ok, back to the dollar… Yesterday, while the nurses tried to find a vein they could puncture, and remove blood, the dollar was set adrift in the sea, to bob up and own all day, in a very tight range… The BBDXY remained withing the 1,223 handle all day, up down and all around, but no great move up or down.   The euro has been the drag on the BBDXY losing ground, in that the European Central Bank (ECB ) did cut rates last week, 25 Basis Points.  The Bank of England and Bank of Japan, left their internal rates unchanged…  You see, the euro has no PPT to keep it from falling off a cliff, and so when the Central Bank debases the currency, it gets sold… 

The good news for the euro is that it held the 1.11 handle, and now the rate cut is in our rear-view mirror, so the when the dollar gets back to getting sold, the euro will benefit again… For, it is, the offset currency to the dollar! 

I think the ECB thought that with the FOMC cutting rates 50 Basis Points, that they could cut rates 25 Basis Points and not upset the euro’s applecart that much, and that’s exactly what happened… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $71 handle, and yesterday Oil got sold a bit and it fell to $70.55 on the day… The bond boys just aren’t buying what the FOMC is selling these days… They have sold bonds every day since last Wednesday’s rate cut… The 10-year’s yield rose to 3.75% yesterday, after ending the week at 3.74%… 

Could this be the work of those German traders that I wrote about a week or so ago, that were shorting the 10-year?  I said at the time that I personally didn’t think that it was a good time to be shorting Treasuries with the Fed Heads ready to cut rates, and probably announce more cuts were coming….  Shows to go you, that I called that one wrong… 

So, what happened yesterday? Gold closed up $6 to $2,627.50, and Silver closed down 2-cents, but apparently had lost the $31 handle somewhere over the weekend, so Silver was $30.62 to end the day…  The dollar traded up, down and all around the 1.223 handle in the BBDXY, and never broke out of it… 

In the overnight markets last night… All that looking backward at what happened, has my head spinning this morning…  The dollar ran into some selling overnight, and the BBDXY is down 2 index points this morning… Not a lot of selling, but some…  Gold is basically flat this morning, up a buck or two, as I write, and Silver is up 20 -cents to start our day today… The Price of Oil is back to trading with a $72 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield continues to rise and trades this morning with a 3.80% yield… 

I have to point out this morning that the Chinese renminbi has been allowed to rally VS the dollar in recent times, as I’ve previously discussed, but this latest move by the renminbi has been something for the ages… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.03 handle!  And I thought it was very interesting that the People’s Bank of China had allowed the currency to rally to 7.08 last week? Shows to go you that you can’t believe everything you hear about China… I’m just saying.. 

My friends, (Rich and Michael) over at Asset Strategies, Inc. had this to report late last week, this is a doozy so stay with me here: “According to the new Ramsey Solutions State of Personal Finance report, nearly 40% of Americans carry a higher credit card balance than they have saved for retirement. In addition, over 60% of Americans feel that they are not making meaningful progress on their retirement goals.”

You’ve got to feel for these people… Or no…   But at some point, in the future, they’re going to realize that they are not prepared to retire, and therefore will have to remain part of the workforce until they keel over…  I’m just saying… Or, maybe these folks are thinking that the Gov’t will pay their way through retirement, since the Gov’t bails out everything/ body else…  That’s got to be it…  By Joe, you’ve nailed it Governor! 

Well, are you prepared for what’s coming? It’s not going to be pretty folks… The Gloom and doom is all over the news wires, and each one paints an ugly picture of what is coming…  From Bond Defaults, to riots in the streets, to a financial system collapsing, to digital currencies… I swear if we get 20% of all those things, it’ll still be like Armagedón, because most people in the markets these days have never seen a collapsing stock market, or financial system…  All I’ll say about all of this is: Got Gold?

I have to apologize for not knowing what the hell happened to Silver over the weekend…  Did you hear the story about how the Saudi’s have been caught buying physical Gold through the back door? The Good Folks at GATA sent me this:  that the Saudi’s are buying Gold instead of Treasuries, is BIG NEWS! And I’ll be on the watch out for more information on this in the future, but for now, keep in mind that the whole Petrol currency status for the dollar hinged on the Saudi’s playing along…   And that maybe, now, they’ve changed their minds…   

And finally, the good folks at Gata also sent me something on how Financial Times discovers that the Federal Reserve serves only the banking industry…  I found that this was a real sharp stick in the eye of the Financial Times… You see, for years, the folks at GATA tried to get the Financial Times to write about price suppression of Gold & Silver, and they wouldn’t budge, but having them admit this about the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel is a step in the right direction… 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention that I saw that Mercury Morris had died this past weekend at 77…  Mercury Morries was a running back alongside Jim Kiick, and Larry Csonka… They are the only undefeated team in the Super Bowl era… 1972… I always see a TV ad that shows Morris talking about how he has a bottle of Champagne for the next team that goes undefeated…  RIP Mercury Morris… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is void of much economic reporting this week… In fact, I don’t see anything worth mentioning until Thursday, when Durable Goods will print for August, and expected to be negative…   Speaking of Thursday, we’ll also see the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, it will be interesting to see if the Mass layoffs by GM that were announced last week show up here….   

To recap… The dollar was rescued on Friday, after falling to a multi-month low on Thursday… The euro, was not rescued because the euro doesn’t have a fairy godmother to come to its aid, every time it appears to be falling off a cliff… The European Central Bank cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points last Thursday, and the Bank of England and Bank of Japan sat on their hands, and kept their powder dry…  Americans are NOT preparing for retirement… I guess they all think the Gov’t will pay their way through retirement…   Tsk, tsk, tsk…. 

For What It’s Worth…  Last Thursday, I went all postal on the Fed Heads, and their leader, Jerome Powell, about saying that the size of the rate cut was “for the people”…   I pointed out that in the past, whenever the Fed Heads opted for a larger rate cut, that the economy was in trouble… Well, this article points all that stuff out again, and I think it should be read again, and again, and again… It can be found here: Rabobank Goes Apeshit On Powell’s Orwellian Rate Cut | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “If there was a strong case for a 50 bps cut, Powell did not make it at his press conference. He repeatedly stressed that the US economy was strong, but we should see the strong move as a commitment to keep the economy strong.

Doctor: “We’ll give you extra strong medication.”

Patient: “Is my condition that bad?”

Doctor: “No, you’re healthy, but we’re committed to keep you healthy.”

In the end, it looks like Powell felt the level of the policy rate was out of sync with the progress on inflation and the rise in the unemployment rate. After all, he used the word ‘recalibration’ several times. This was also evident in the FOMC projections now showing a 100 bps reduction compared to the pre-meeting level of the target range, rather than the 25 bps in the June projections. Although Powell denied that the Fed had fallen behind the curve, this is exactly what recalibration means. However, the latter obscures the former and Powell did not want to admit that they should have cut 25 bps in July. It got really funny when he said that the FOMC had been patient in waiting and this allowed them to make a strong move. Yes, if you get behind the curve, you have to make a big leap forward to catch up!

* * *

The recalibration argument is clashing with the message this large cut sends. When asked during the Q&A what his message to the US consumer is, Powell said that the US economy is in a good place and our decision is to keep it there. Really? A 50 bps cut as a message that the economy is strong? So if they cut by 75 bps the economy is booming? This sounds like something out of George Orwell’s 1984:

WAR IS PEACE

FREEDOM IS SLAVERY

IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

Understandably, a reporter asked whether the 50 bps cut meant that he was more concerned about the labor market than about inflation. However, Powell denied this and said that the risks are roughly balanced. This exchange underlined the problem.

During the press conference, Powell had trouble clearly explaining the reason for the large cut, because he did not want to admit that this ‘recalibration’ was needed because the FOMC had fallen behind the curve. Meanwhile, the large cut seemed counterintuitive to the repeated claim that the economy was strong.

In the past, the Fed only cut 50 bps at the start of a cutting cycle in case of a severe deterioration in the economy or markets, such as the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.”

Chuck again…  You know, the more I think about this 50 BPS rate cut, the more I believe it was a political move to help the Administration’s entry to the POTUS campaign….  Now, that was a very delicate way of saying what I was saying, wasn’t it?   

Market Prices 9/24/2024; American Style: A$ .6962, kiwi .6299, C$ .7407, euro 1.1144, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.1796, European Style: rand 17.3216, krone 10.4310, SEK 10.1381, forint 353.94, zloty 3.8271, koruna 22.5630, RUB 93.04, yen 143.90, sing 1.2974, HKD 7.7846, INR 83.63, China 7.0322, peso 19.32, BRL 5.6882, BBDXY 1,222.00, Dollar Index 100.73, Oil $72.01, 10-year 3.80%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $975.00, Palladium $1,054.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,630.50

That’s it for today… Well? Did you miss me? HA! I know, I’ve been gone longer than that!  Spoiler Alert, good friend, Dennis Miller has a doozy for his readers coming out this Thursday, that will be posted to: www.milleronthemoney.com   The last time I met with good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, he gave me a Battle Bank baseball cap… I wore it to Ireland, and sine then it’s been sitting here on my makeshift desk… I don’t know how he keeps his patience with how long its taking the FDIC to bless his bank and he can open to the public… I would be on the phone with those folks daily, beating them up, taking no prisoners… And there you see the difference in our personalities! My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday, didn’t I say last week that this could be a “trap game”? Well, it almost turned out to be just that! As the Tigers won in OT…. The team is on bye this week, and that’s a good thing, for they need to get their heads on straight before the next game!  Jimmy Cliff takes us to the finish line today with his song: Hello Sunshine… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday to day, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler