Category: Uncategorized

• currencies rally big time on Friday and overnight
• 3 rate cuts? no wonder the dollar is in the dumps…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  And a late Happy Birthday to my little buddy, who isn’t so little any longer! Alex turned 30 on Saturday… I’m still trying to figure out how that happened! Well, after two games where the Cardinals flexed their muscles, they went silent in the last two game VS the Cubs and ended up splitting the 4-game series… So, no ground was gained by my beloved Cardinals… UGH! They righted the ship and swept the series VS the Indians, I mean the Guardians… I’m a tradition person, and I can’t get used to calling these teams that cowed to the PC folks, their new names… I just don’t get it… 10CC greet me this morning with their song: Dreadlock Holiday…

The U.S. dollar continued to get sold into the weekend… On Thursday last week, the BBDXY fell below 1,200, all the way down to 1,194… A 9 index point loss from Wednesday. And on Friday, it didn’t get any love, but the selling abated for one day..

The euro skated through the 1.16 handle and traded into the 1.17 handle on Friday last week.. This is a 10-year low for the dollar, and without PPT protection, the dollar looks to drop even more, soon…  So, how is that diversification in your investment portfolio looking now? Wait, What, you never diversified back in the day when I used to tell you to do so? Well, it’s not too late to do so, especially if the dollar has entered a long-term weak trend… Which, I do believe it has… but then that’s just me…

Gold lost $5 on Thursday, but on Friday, it got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair… This makes no sense to me… sure Gold usually goes on June Swoon, but not like this! Gold ended the week at $3,272,after getting sold $53 on Friday and Silver closed the week at $35.92, after getting sold 66-cents on Friday… UGH! 

Gold starts the week below $3,300 at $3,279 up $5 this morning.  I read a piece on Kitco.com this morning that called for Gold to remain under $3,300 this week… Why they decided on this week as the focal data, is beyond me… But it’s the June Swoon, that Gold normally goes though… And Wall St. is a so “what have you done for me lately?” crowd, that now they say they are no longer bullish on Gold…  Well, let them sell their positions, they’ll be sorry they did so at year end… I’m just saying… 

Individual investors like you and me, should be looking to buy Gold at cheaper prices…  Silver is up 5-cents, a plug nickel this morning, and starts the week at $35.97… The same story here as Gold… so no need to repeat it…  The price of Oil stabilized a bit over the weekend, as the cease-fire held, and starts the week trading with a $65 handle…  And the buying in the 10-year hasn’t stopped, and the 10-year Treasury bond starts the week at 4.28%.. 

Circling back to the gains that the euro has made during this selloff of the dollar… Once again, the euro proves my theory on the currency, and that is that the euro can rally when the dollar is getting sold, even if the economic data from the Eurozone is iffy…  Last week, the euro zone economy flatlined for a second month in June as the bloc’s dominant services industry showed only a small sign of improvement and manufacturing displayed none at all, a survey showed on Monday.  

And sterling has been on the rally tracks too… And this despite a slowing labor market, and their new orders data only showed a slim expansion for the first time this year… Pound sterling is more closely tied to the conflict in the Middle East, and that should keep the pound sterling from going all hog-wild VS the dollar.. 

The dollar isn’t getting any love from the Fed Heads… Michelle Bowman, the Fed Head that’s the Vice Chairman for supervision, was spouting about rate cuts, and how the economy is in need of such rate cuts… The futures markets have now priced in 3 rate cuts before end of year… And that, my friends, is a BIG reason the dollar is getting sold right now… 

And should be the reason Gold is rallying, but Gold isn’t rallying, and instead is seeing some strong selling… I read this weekend that U.S. investors are selling Gold, while their Asian counterparts, are buying Gold…  And that brings me to my thought that U.S. investors treat Gold like a commodity that should be bought and sold like stocks… And the Asian investors treat Gold as a store of value and wealth, like it should be treated…  I wish that more than you dear Pfennig Readers would hear that… Because I’m singing to the choir here, instead of spreading the Gospel! 

 The U.S. Data Cupboard had a print last Thursday that was greatly exaggerated.. Here’s MarketWatch: ” Orders for long-lasting goods skyrocketed 16% in May to mark the biggest increase in 11 years, but the headline number was exaggerated by a flush of new Boeing contracts that masked ongoing weakness in business investment.”

So, once again the markets failed to look under the hood at the data prints, and took the report as gospel, and traded accordingly…  And on Friday last week, The PCE, the Fed Heads preferred inflation calc, rose on an annual basis to 2.7%… But Gold got whacked? Now tell me again why you don’t believe that Gold is manipulated… 

And finally on data… The 2^nd revision of 1^st QTR GDP came in .5% lower than the last revision… Now, if you have a great memory, you’ll recall that when the 1^st print of 1^st QTR GDP printed, I said that it would eventually be downsized…  And it has been! No worries, I’m not slapping myself on the back this was as easy of a call to make as making a layup!   Here’s Bill Bonner on his take of this report:

“Does it make any difference? Maybe not. GDP figures are largely meaningless or misleading. They don’t tell you much that is useful. And what they pretend to tell you is mostly fraudulent.”

Yeah, he’s right about that… As I always remind you about GDP makeup is that it includes Gov’t spending… So, when you add in Gov’t spending, and the result is still negative, just how negative would it have been it you took our Gov’t Spending? The economy is in shambles folks… I’m just saying… 

In the U.S. Data Cupboard this week, will be a couple of real economic data prints, but none today… On Wednesday we’ll see the ADP Employment Report… one that I still think should be used for labor reporting purposes…  And then on Friday this week we’ll have the Jobs Jamboree for June… Recall that May’s jobs only showed an increase of 37,000… June jobs should be better than that as the grads enter the work arena… 

To recap rout on the dollar continued into the weekend and then took up again last night.  The euro is trading over $1.17 to start the week, and the rest of the currencies, including the Chinese renminbi are all following the Big Dog’s lead… Gold is in its traditional June Swoon, and Wall St. doesn’t know the history, and has given up the ghost on Gold… They’ll be sorry…  And Saturday was Alex’s 30^th birthday, how many of you remember when he was 3 and would sit on my lap while I wrote the Pfennig from home, and his input would look like this: @#$%^7

I came across this from Bloomberg.com last week, and it will be our FWIW article today…This is about how China is seizing the current situation in the U.S. as an excellent time to promote the usage of their currency, and it can be found here: CNY/USD: China Seizes Moment to Globalize Yuan as Dollar Doubts Mount – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “China is launching a sweeping campaign to promote the yuan’s global role, seizing what officials see as a rare strategic opening.

With the dollar facing multiple challenges, Beijing is accelerating its long-standing campaign to reduce global reliance on the world’s reserve currency. What sets the latest push apart is timing: Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in years to promote the yuan.

The latest measures aim to not just facilitate trade but also open China’s financial markets and embed the yuan more deeply in investment flows. They include easing capital controls, expanding cross-border payment systems, and launching new financial products to attract foreign investors. Beijing’s hope is that a more internationalized yuan may reshape trade and global finance and challenge the dollar’s dominance in reserve portfolios.

“The measures to further integrate China with the global financial system feel like steps in the right direction, as China wants to make sure that the yuan is in the conversation of important global currencies,” Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank NV, said.”

Chuck again…  This is what I would have expected the Chinese to do several years ago, but as the saying goes… Better late than never! And this plays well in the sand box with my call that one day we’ll see the Chinese renminbi as one of the reserve currencies, as I feel that in the future, we’ll have zones of reserve currencies… 

Market Prices 6/30/2025: American Style: A$ .6532, kiwi .6063, C$ .7316, euro 1.1725, sterling 1. 3704, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.7579, krone 10.0971, SEK 9.5007, forint 340.16, zloty 3.6168, koruna 21.1027, RUB 78.47, yen 144.32, sing 1.2745, HKD 7.8500, INR 86.76, China 7.1647, peso 18.83, BRL 5.4867, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 97.19, Oil $65.23, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $35.97, Platinum $1,362.00, Palladium $1,170.00, Copper $5.08, and Gold… $3,379

That’s it for today… So… I guess you figured it out that my one remaining eye surgery went well, or I wouldn’t have been able to write this morning… I was scared to death when the surgery was over, and everything was black… I couldn’t see a thing! Oh no! My deepest fears were coming true! I told the surgeon that I couldn’t see, and he told me to relax, that the sight would come back soon… And it did! I can see 20/20 now out of that eye and only need reading glasses to read.  Now, I’ll have to get used to looking in the mirror and seeing me without glasses! Thanks to all who sent along good wishes and said prayers… I truly appreciate all the support! Hamilton, Joe, Frank, and Reynolds take us to the finish line this morning with their one hit wonder song: Fallin’ In Love… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies are out of their respective sick beds!
• Copper is on the mover…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! 2 down 2 to go for my beloved Cardinals VS the Cubs… The teams waited until almost July before facing each other and will now play each other 5 more times in the next two weeks… Crazy schedule! Another hot day here yesterday, but that didn’t stop me from going out to read! The Scorpions greet me this morning with their great ballad: Still Loving You (which is one of my favorite people in the world Favorite song!. Right, Laura B?)

OK… the dollar slid a little further yesterday losing 2 index points in the BBDXY, and the euro climbing back over the 1.16 handle… And the rest of the currencies following the Big Dog, euro, chasing the dollar down the street.  Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen rallied VS the dollar! If I recall correctly, the last time the dollar went into a prolonged weak trend the start was Feb. 2002… And that lasted until 2013 or so… The currencies were playing hard to get, and didn’t want to give up the throne… But eventually, the dollar won out, and has been in a strong trend since then… There have been some false dawns along the way, but each of those had the PPT step in to intervene and scare the dollar sellers away until the next time… 

So, I would say that 12 years in a strong trend was overstaying its welcome, in my humble opinion..  There’s just too much chaos going on the U.S., with the debt exploding, bonds not getting bought (except by the Fed Heads) war hanging over us like Damocles’ Sword… Stocks too have been in a bull market for way over its value, but I’m not here to talk about stocks, so… we’ll just move along..

Gold didn’t fare too well yesterday and gave back $22 of its gains… Gold closed the day at $3,325… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and lost 20-cents on the day to close at $35.97… Once again falling back below $36… The price of Oil lost $3 in the last 24 hours and ended the day yesterday trading with a $65 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury was bought or marked up whichever, and the yield fell to 4.30%… 

I read yesterday that the bond boys are eyeing the 10-year at 4% before the year is out… Well, I guess they are taking into consideration that the Fed Heads will cut rates a couple of times before the end of the year?   They may have to reconsider their calculation because the Chief jefe of the FOMC, Jerome Powell, stated “the Fed will maintain a “wait-and-see” approach regarding interest rate adjustments.”

I know, I know that some of the members of the FOMC have been out calling for rate cuts, but I doubt that Powell would be influenced by them if he wasn’t influenced by the POTUS! But it was reported yesterday that Two President Trump-appointed Fed officials favor interest rate cuts as soon as next month. Seven of their colleagues don’t envision cutting rates this year at all. So, there’s that…

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar continued to get sold, so the rout is on in my humble country boy opinion… The BBDXY starts today down 5 index points from yesterdays’ open, and the euro remains above 1.16… My only question now is: Where is the PPT and their treasure trove of funds to defend the dollar?  Or, as I’ve chronicled here in the Pfennig in the past, the POTUS wants a cheaper dollar… So, could the PPY been told to cool their jets? Now, that would be something!  

Gold starts today, flat as a pancake (Head East) and Silver is down 24-cents.  You know what I feel that a lot of people think that Gold is simply a hedge for geopolitical events, like the Israel / Iran conflict… But, that’s not all Gold is good for… Gold is also a hedge to protect you from a weakening dollar… And Gold is as good as there is as a wealth protection vehicle…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil has slid another buck to trade this morning with at $64 handle… Traders feel that the risk is over… And they are much like the good witch Glinda, telling the munchkins to all come out, that’s it’s all clear… I sure hope they are correct… but I have a sneaky feeling this conflict will return…  And the 10-year Treasury didn’t see any action overnight and starts today trading with a 4.30% yield… 

n 2001, I wrote a white paper and titled it “The Demise of the Dollar” And it was very insightful because the weak dollar trend started just a few months later… In 2003, I wrote another white paper titled ” The Year of the Euro”… And once again, it was insightful, because the euro had already taken off, but really put a mile of distance between it and the dollar in 2003… 

At that time I was beginning my career as a conference speaker, and in Orlando 2003, I spoke to a crowd that took up all the seats, sat on the floor and stood against the walls to hear what I had to say about the dollar… They wouldn’t let anyone else in the room and Chris Gaffney stood at the door and would repeat what I had to say to the crowed that couldn’t get in the door.!  

The Pfennig was really taking off at that time, as there were nights after we turned off the phones, that at least 4 of us were inputting email addresses to the Pfennig list of readers…  At one time a couple of years later, I asked our marketing person, Jason Coots to add up all the readers at other sites… he came back to tell me that at least 500,000 readers were reading the Pfennig daily…  

Those numbers have come down by 100’s but I’m still writing…  I told you all that because sometimes I think that newer readers don’t know how important the Pfennig was in “its day”… And How when the media wanted to know what was going on with the dollar, they called me… So, when I say that I think the dollar has entered a weak trend, there’s some history to my thinking and I’m not just talking, and saying things I know nothing about… 

My resume’ just at EverBank would take up several pages!  Did you know that at EverBank we had a brokerage co. Called EverTrade, and that I started that brokerage in my basement? Strange, eh?  But when the currency business came to EverBank I switched to the currencies immediately, my true love, at that time that is… 

So, I checked the currency roundup and saw that the Petrol Currencies haven’t gotten the snot knocked out them with the price of Oil dropping…  The Russian ruble hasn’t moved much at all, and the ruble is strictly an Oil play…  The dollar dropping while the Oil price is too, really helps the Petrol Currencies. Otherwise, they would be causing some major tears… 

And the Swiss franc after cutting rates and talking about how they might have to go negative rates, didn’t get punished… Instead, it rallied VS the dollar… 

It won’t be much longer, and people will begin to notice that the dollar is faltering and they need to protect their investment portfolios from having all dollar denominated asset classes…  You do that by having an allocation of currencies and metals… 

It’s been a long time since I talked about diversification… But this is something that should be done whether the dollar is sinking or not… You own currencies and metals as your diversification away from the dollar… So, at some point the currencies rally and make up for your dollar denominated assets… or vice versa as it has been since 2013… 

And before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that Copper is on the move to higher ground, and it’s all because of a supplies are dwindling and the shorts in the currency are getting squeezed out… here’s Bloomberg.com : “Copper faces historic squeeze with LME stockpiles depleting fast.   And here are the good folks at GATA: ” One of the copper market’s biggest-ever squeezes is unfolding on the London Metal Exchange, as rapidly declining inventories push up spot prices.” Go ahead and check out the currency and metals roundup this morning, and see what I’m talking about with Copper… 

And they say that Copper rising in price is sign that Silver is on the move higher too…   So, back up the truck, and load up on Silver would be my suggestion, but then we do have to deal with the short paper traders who currently have short position in Silver that equal to 188 days of Silver production… So, when those are reduced by a large amount, that’s when Silver will be allowed to head to $40 and beyond…  I’m just saying… 

One of the copper market’s biggest-ever squeezes is unfolding on the London Metal Exchange, as rapidly declining inventories push up spot prices.

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price report for April… I know, I know this data is so stale that it is close to being useless… But the report did show that Home Prices had fallen and that was important… But apparently haven’t fallen enough to get people to buy existing houses…  We also saw the STUPID Consumer Confidence for June and it surprised even me, falling from 98% to 93%… Uh-Oh… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has just the new Home Sales in May, and I would expect them to show a deep drop in sales… I guess, we’ll see, eh?

To recap… The dollar continued to get sold yesterday, and Chuck goes some of the things he has done in the past to denote the weak dollar trend that existed from 2002 to 2013 ish…  The price of Oil is dropping like the proverbial rock falling from a cliff, and I would warn people to fill up now, because when the fit hits the shan the next time it’s going to get ugly… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from www.zerohedge.com where you’ll have to search for it if you want to read it all, because they sent it to me, I don’t have the exact website info… But it’s an article about Central Bank buying of Gold and why you should be too:

Or, here’s your snippet: “Central Banks Are Buying Gold Again. Shouldn’t You Be?

Global central banks are on pace to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, marking their fourth consecutive year of massive purchases as they diversify reserves from dollar-denominated assets.

They’re not buying bonds. They’re not hoarding dollars. They’re quietly and consistently accumulating physical gold. If that doesn’t raise questions about the future of the dollar and global stability, it should.

What Do Central Banks Know That You Don’t?

This isn’t just a hedge. It’s a strategic shift.

Gold doesn’t carry counterparty risk

It’s independent of sanctions, politics, or SWIFT systems

It offers a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar

With rising geopolitical tensions, debt concerns, and inflation risk, central banks are sending a message: trust in fiat systems is fading — and gold is the fallback plan.

Follow the Smart Money. Start with Gold.

 If sovereign nations are preparing for instability, individual investors should be too. Gold offers long-term security in a way paper assets never will.

The best time to start stacking was yesterday. The second-best time is now.”

Chuck Again… Well, aren’t those all the reasons I’ve told you about through the years? But sometimes it takes hearing it from someone else for it to sink through! I know that most of you dear readers are holders of Gold already, but do you have enough to hedge your exposure to a weaker dollar? I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 6/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6495, kiwi .6024, C$ .7287, euro 1.1604, sterling 1.3507, Swiss 1.2365, European Style: rand 17.7783, krone 10.1529, SEK 9.5262, forint 345.70, zloty 3.6611, koruna 21.3417, RUB 78.38, yen 146.77, sing 1.2806, HKD 7.8500, China 7.1742, peso 18.96, BRL 5.5713, BBEDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 98.08, Oil $64.85, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $35.73, Platinum $1,310.00, Palladium $1,080.00, Copper $4.95, and Gold… $3,325

That’s it for today and this week… Good luck to me, and my eye surgeon tomorrow, I certainly don’t want to think about it if something goes wrong… There are just too many things to think about there… And I refuse to do it! My former Big Boss, and good friend, Frank Trotter, sent me a text last night, saying: Winning on a mental error, we’ll take it…  Yes, the winning run last night scored on a sacrifice fly to center field, but the runner started at 2^nd base! The centerfielder forgot how many outs there were and didn’t hustle the ball back into the infield… And the runner just kept going, and that was that! The Beach Boys take us to the finish line today with their great ballad song: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please take care of yourself, and if you’re in the Midwest, try to stay somewhere cool… stay out of the heat! 

Chuck Butler 

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• and the Swiss Nation Bank flans the flames of inflation….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! One down, three to go… that has to be my beloved Cardinals battle cry for this week, as the Cubs are in town. Cards beat the Cubbies 8-2, with the Cardinals hitting four 2-run home runs… Showed some muscle! 

After the previous night’s rally for the dollar and bonds, things calmed down a bit on Monday during the day session… The 10-year didn’t move and ended the day at 4.35% the same yield as it started the morning…  And the dollar? 

Well, the dollar lost its mojo yesterday… You know, the mojo the dollar held from the overnight performance… But that all changed yesterday, and the BBDXY lost 9 index points, to end the day at 1,208… That’s lower than Friday’s close of 1,211, so the dollar weak trend is still in place, and like I told you many times before a weak dollar trend is not a ONE-WAY street… 

Gold had a very modest gain yesterday, erased the early selling and its $5 loss, to a gain at the end of the day of $10… at $3.37…  Gold was higher during the day, but the short paper traders put a max on Gold’s rise… UGH!  Silver gained 24-cents to close at $36.17… 

And Oil? It fell out of bed, as the oil traders seem to believe that the hostilities are over and Iran will not do any more, and certainly not shut down the Strait of Hormuz… Oil finished the day trading with a $68 handle… 

In the overnight markets last night… The selling of the dollar continued… I’m seeing the BBDXY as having lost 6 index point overnight… And the euro has recovered its losses incurred when the dollar rallied, and in fact, the euro is trading over the 1.16 handle this morning! That means that the rest of the currencies are all looking healthier and out of their sick beds.. Even the rout in the price of Oil yesterday and last night hasn’t been a factor in the Petrol Currencies this morning, as they are taking their main cue from the euro’s rally VS the dollar. 

Gold is down $19 to start our day today… if you’re like me and you thought that this would be Gold’s best week performance wise, then you’re as confused as I was about the price action of Gold… I remember in economics class that there was a study done on price movements from geopolitical events, like the Israel / Iran conflict/ war… Here is what I remember of that study… When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action,, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story.  

So, that’s the reason I think that Gold has not responded as we thought it would since the bombing started. Stupid markets… I was also taught something about the markets that I’ll share with you, that I leaned the first day on a trading desk… “The markets are never wrong, and you’ll go broke betting against the markets”… 

I’ve tested that theory several times in the past, and I really don’t see why we have to just admit and take the idea that the market is never wrong…  It normally takes some time for the markets to come around to my way of thinking, and if I had put large sums of money on the trade, I would have had deep pockets to last to the time that the markets came around… 

OK, got it? I would use the selling of Gold as a buying opportunity, but then that’s just me… 

The price of Silver is flat to up a penny to start our day… But at least Silver is back above the $36 handle… I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw that Silver had dropped to below the $36 handle a few days ago… 

The price of Oil dropped another $2 overnight, and starts today trading with a $66 handle… The same holds trued here for my thoughts on the price of Oil… And the 10-year Treasury saw some ,more buying last night and the yield on the bond slipped further to a 4.33% yield to start our day today…

And in a case of “here we go again”… The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate to zero last Thursday and did not rule out returning borrowing costs to negative territory in future,  Aye, Aye, Aye…  Say it’s ain’t so, Joe!

I really thought that we were through with negative interests!  And Switzerland’s comment about negative rates got me thinking about the Fed Heads…  No, they never did succumb to negative rates, but they did perform 3 phases of Quantitative Easing! 

And the real interest rate in the U.S. was negative, when you factor in inflation… So, will we go back there again?  Probably, why? Because we can, not that it will do the economy any favors, just bring back all the reckless borrowing at zero interest rates again, and fan the flames of inflation… But who’s counting?

Ok… my longtime friend, Dave Gonigam at the Paradigm Pressroom and his letter titled “5-Bullets” included a quote from James Rickards yesterday that was: “What do you think is the highest-performing major asset this year so far?” he asked rhetorically. “It’s gold!”

Chuck again… Yes, Gold has outperformed bonds, Oil, and stocks!  Rickards also said that the ““Relax if you don’t own gold yet,” Jim advises. “This rally is just getting started. Central banks are the big buyers. The retail frenzy stage is still $5,000 away. So there is still time to get involved if it suits you.”

Thanks to Dave Gonigam for sending me his letter each day! 

Ok… So, it was a delayed reaction to the conflict as I suspected yesterday… And the dollar saw sellers yesterday all day long. So, the euro is back to pushing the currency envelope on the dollar, with the rest of the currencies go chasing the dolar down the street…

The U.S. Data Cupboard for today has just the S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Index… and we can’t but should forget about the STUPID Consumer confidence for June… Remember, the bulk of the real data will come on Thursday, so we’ll talk about it next Monday, that is if everything goes to plan… 

And speaking of housing… yesterday the existing housing report for May printed and it was the weakest print since May of 2009… So, Home Prices haven’t reduced enough and that doesn’t bode well for the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index now does it? I didn’t think so… 

To recap… The dollar lost its mojo it held for one overnight session Sunday night. On Monday the dollar got sold and the BBDXY lost 9 index points! Gold & Silver were up, a bit, bonds were flat, and Oil got the snot knocked out of it! Gold outperformed stocks, bonds, and Oil so far this year… And some people still call it a barbaric metal… chuckleheads… And Switzerland cut their interest rates last week, and talked about them going negative if they have to… Chuck wonders when the Fed Heads will ask the question about going back to ZIRP and Q/E?

For What It’s Worth…  Do you feel that the Gov’t is lying to you, when they say that inflation is going down?  Well, that’s because inflation may be inching down, but prices that rose during the highest inflation in decades, refuse to come down… And that’s what this article talks about and can be found here: Why Prices Never go Down

Or, here’s your snippet: “Bidenflation is over.

But if you feel like prices still aren’t falling, you’re not alone.

Since Donald Trump took office, inflation has plunged from a Biden-era 5 percent to just 1.4%.

This is actually below the Fed’s target of 2%. Normally, at this point, the Fed would be trying to pump inflation since it’s “too low.”

Of course, for the American people, 1.4% is not “too low.” What they want is falling prices, as in take it back to pre-Biden prices.

Will that happen?

In short, no. Prices will never durably fall until we get rid of the Federal Reserve.

Because deflation — falling prices — is the #1 thing the Fed fears. Not unemployment. Not recession. Not nuclear war.

This comes from that core propaganda that created central banks: The false claim that deflation itself is bad.”

Chuck again… yes, like my spring training tickets that used to be $5 are now $40… And the list can be very long of items that we use every day have seen prices rise and never go back down!  And the bad part is… I think that inflation is going to reestablish itself once the rate cuts begin… So, another round of price increases is on the way…   

Markets 6/24/2025: American Style: A$ .6510, kiwi .6053, C$.7392, euro 1.1609, sterling 1.3619, Swiss $1.2357, European Style: rand 17.7218, krone 10.0866, SEK 9.5375, forint 346.33, zloty 3.6683, koruna 21.3643, RUB 78.53, yen 145.00, sing 1.2802, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.97, China 7.1734, peso 19.03, BRL 5.4869, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 97.99, Oil $66.53, 10-year 4.33%, Silver $36.18, Platinum $1,320.00, Palladium $1.095.00, Copper $4.96, and Gold… $3,328

That’s it for today… I didn’t get outside to read yesterday, and I don’t know why? The day just got away from me somehow… I’ll make up for yesterday, today for sure! Did you click on the link yesterday to that YouTube video that I gave you? Well? Did you like it as much as I did?  Not that I get a dime for this, but I think if you go to one conference this year it should be The Rule Symposium which will be July 7-11 in Boca Raton… Simply Google this and you’ll get the whole shootin’ match!  Last year, I attended the symposium for a day, mainly to meet up with Frank Trotter and Jason Coots who were there at the Battle Bank booth… This year I won’t be in Florida until July 27, so I’ll miss it, but you don’t have to! Robert Palmer takes us to the finish line today with his song: Sneaking Sally Through The Alley…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies, metals, and Oil all get sold overnight
• The dollar, and bonds get bought…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  Well, my beloved Cardinals had a chance to sweep the Reds, but the Cards 5 game winning streak came to an end… They did take 2 of 3 from the Reds, so there was that! It was a hot weekend here… As Summer is finally upon us! Smokey Bill Robinson greets me this morning with his song: Cruisin’

Well, apologies to the pundits that I accused of panicking last week, when the POTUS threatened to bomb Iran… Because late last week the U.S. did just that! I don’t know where that moves takes us going forward, but I’m not to sure about it… I’m just saying… 

I would have thought that Gold would be the cat’s meow of investments going into the weekend, but that was not to be, Gold didn’t really move with it being down just $2 from Thursday morning when I last talked to you. Gold ended the week at $3,367… 

Silver took it on the chin from the short paper traders both Thursday and Friday last week and lost 60-cents from Thursday and ended the week at $35.92… 

I thought it best to give you Ed Steer’s explanation of what went on late last week, so, here’s Ed: “I was somewhat surprised that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe set the low ticks in gold and silver about ten minutes before the Globex open in London on Friday morning — and didn’t press their advantage starting after the morning gold fix over there, or during the COMEX trading session in New York.

That 1-hour long rally in gold going into the afternoon gold fix in London was a surprise — and reeked of short covering. And as I pointed out in my discussion on gold at the top of today’s missive, ‘da boyz’ stepped in with a vengeance at that time to ensure that gold closed down on the day…as it would have certainly closed higher by a respectable amount if they hadn’t.”

Thanks to Ed Steer for that, and you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The dollar didn’t move much last week, and neither did the 10-year… Two former stalwarts of safe havens, but are no longer considered as such… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,211, and the 10-year ended the week trading with a $4.40% yield…

Maybe it’s a delayed reaction to the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities that will get people buying Gold… 

And another asset that I thought would be soaring this morning, is the price of Oil… It initially rose to $76 on Thursday, and ended the week at $75, so either it’s a delayed reaction to everything, or… I don’t know, what else would keep the assets down… 

In The Overnight Markets last night… The delayed reaction came last night… And boy did it come! The dollar got bought by the bushelful and the BBDXY has gained 6 index points to start the day/ week today. 

Gold is down $5 to start the day/ week, and Silver is up 14=cents. The price of Oil has slid back down to a $74 handle, as traders await Iran’s reaction to the U.S.’s strike.  I’m telig you this now, so you can go get your gas tank filled before this happens… I think that Iran could make the Oil market a real dangerous place to trade going forward… This is what I fear that the Oil embargoes of the 70’s will look like child’s play here… I hope to hell I’m wrong on this… 

And the 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped like a rock overnight. Were the Fed Heads in buying again? It sure looks like it as the yield on this bond trades at 4.35%… I have something on Treasuries in the FWIW section this morning, so stay turned to that!

Well, the dollar’s going nowhere folks, and I had a dear reader send the link to this video and song about the dollar… So, it’s a real treat folks… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XbzOOQq47E&ab_channel=OscarBrand-Topic

OK…  The good folks at GATA sent me this note: “Germany and Italy are facing calls to move their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the U.S. Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence.

Fabio De Masi, a former Die Linke member of the European Parliament who joined the leftwing populist BSW party, told the Financial Times that there were “strong arguments” for relocating more gold to Europe or Germany “in turbulent times.”

Chuck again… Good luck with that boys…  because I would doubt that the Gold is really there, having been leased out several times through the years…. I’m just saying… 

So, the overnight markets got the ball rolling and I’m not liking what I’m seeing this morning… The dollar is up, bonds are getting bought, and the currencies, metals and Oil are all down… 

This wasn’t just the overnight markets doing, there had to be tons of intervention here folks… And I abhor intervention! Let markets do what they want to do without intervention! 

And remember when I talked to you about the POTUS’s plans to give exploration companies mining rights on Federal Land to uncover the minerals that are there and generate huge sums of money for the country? Well, the first phase of this plan went into action last week, with a bill to sell some of the Federal lands to the exploration companies..  This is going to actually happen folks… I can’t believe my eye! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is basically empty, but later this week it gets refilled and will be chock-full-o-data…. I’m talking about some real economic data so that should stir up the markets…  And it all takes place starting on Thursday, making it a true Tub Thumpin’ Thusday! 

To recap… The U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities late last week, and the markets shrugged it off… Chuck doesn’t have an idea why they did that, but it is what it is…  In the overnight markets all hell was released and the dollar was bought, along with the 10-year Treasury bond, Oil, currencies and metals are all getting sold to start the week…  This is all opposite of what I thought would happen!  SERENITY NOW! 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article this past weekend and knew from the headline that it was FWIW worthy… It’s about Central Banks selling Treasuries and it can be found here:;Over 200 Central Banks Reportedly Dump $48 Billion In US Treasuries Amid Concerns Over Dollar’s Stability: ‘The Drop Is Unusual’

Or, here’s your snippet: “More than 200 Central banks and foreign entities have withdrawn a substantial amount of U.S. Treasuries from the New York Federal Reserve, signaling potential concerns over the stability of the U.S. dollar.

What Happened: The New York Fed’s custody holdings of U.S. Treasuries and other assets have seen a significant decline. The holdings dropped by $17 billion last week and have plummeted by $48 billion since late March, coinciding with the onset of the trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump‘s tariffs, reported Fortune

Bank of America‘s managing director and U.S. rates strategist, Meghan Swiber and fellow strategist, Katie Craig, expressed significant concern over the withdrawal of foreign private investors from the Treasury securities market. Swiber and Craig commented, “This drop is unusual.”

Typically, the cash generated from the sale of U.S. debt is placed in the New York Fed’s reverse repurchase facility, where it is exchanged for Treasuries as collateral. However, that trend has recently reversed, with foreign participation in the facility declining by $15 billion since late March. This points to a notable reduction in U.S. assets held by foreigners at the Fed — roughly $63 billion in just over two months.

Swider told Fortune, “We’re of the view that deficits are going to continue to climb higher in the coming years, and what we struggle with is, ‘Who is going to help support that higher level of supply?”

Chuck again… Yes, who is going to help support our deficit/ debt?  That’s the $64 question and I don’t think you’ll see many countries holding their hands in the air ala Arnold Horshack, and saying OOOOOH, pick me Mr. Kotter! 

Market Prices 6/23/2025: American Style: A$ 6486, kiwi .5896, C$ .7253, euro 1.1466, sterling 1.2287, Swiss $1.2214, European Style: rand 18.1301, krone 10.1736, SEK 9.7298, forint 352.59, zloty 3.7279, koruna 21.6809, RUB 78.49, yen 147.58, sing 1.2929, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.76, China 7.1869, peso 19.25, BRL 5.5318, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.31, Oil $74.25, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $36.06, Platinum $1,300.00, Palladium $1,057.00, Copper $4.86, and Gold.. $3,362

That’s it for today… Yesterday I attended a musical that my darling granddaughter was in… The musical was Hello Dolly… And while Delaney didn’t have the lead, so had a big part… it was a great performance! Yesterday was a hot day, like 7 inches from the sun! Welcome to a St. Louis Summer!  So, no Pfennig on Thursday this week… I get my only remaining eye that have the cataract removed…  I had to get used to noise in the house on Friday as Kathy came home…  Oh well… all good things. come to an end! HA  Uriah Heep take us to the finish line today with their great 70s song: Stealin’. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rebounds on Wednesday…
• Housing is seeing some weakness…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Today is June Nineteenth and is observed as a day to celebrate the end of slavery…  I do believe I got that right, but if not, I’m sure some reader will let me know that I’m wrong… Cardinals were rained out last night in Chi-town and will play a doubleheader today… Let’s Play 2! I know I told you yesterday that I wouldn’t be writing today, but as I looked at the calendar in my phone, I noticed that I wasn’t due at the infusion center until 10:40, and I thought, Shoot Rudy, I can still write! And so I am… Lucky you, eh? HA!  Jonathan Edwards greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Shanty… 

Well, the dollar selling that started Tuesday night, faded on Wednesday in the U.S. session, and the dollar regained the 2 index points it had lost Tuesday night, and closed at 1,209…  Not a HUGE rally by the dollar, but it wasn’t negative either, and with that thought, the dollar/ euro traders decided to let the euro fall below the 1.15 figure that it had held for a few days…   The dollar also had the FOMC on its side yesterday, when the Fed Heads kept rates unchanged, just as I said they would.  

Apparently, the Fed Heads are still not convinced that inflation isn’t a done deal / finished/ completed/ over with…  And for once they are in tune with what I’m thinking and saying all the time…  Inflation is sticky and will remain sticky as long as the tariffs hang over a rate cut like the Sword of Damocles…. 

Yesterday, I told you that Gold had seen some selling along with Silver in the early trading, but that the figures were easily reversed and then said, C’mon you buyers! Well, apparently the buyers listened and Gold and Silver reversed their negative figures… But that only lasted briefly because, the short paper traders showed up and took Gold down $17, and Silver down 31-cents… The Silver take down took Silver below the $37 handle, after it had held it for a couple of days… No worries, I believe that Silver will return to the $37 handle, and then to $38 and so on… I’m just saying

The price of Oil remained well bid above $75 yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buying and the yield ended the day at 4.39%…  

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought some more and we start the day with the BBDIY at 1,211… That’s up 2 index points overnight… I’m still of the opinion that weakness in the dollar will return…  The euro remained below the 1.15 figure overnight, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little peaked this morning…  Gold is up $5 to start our day today… And Silver is down 40-cents!  I have to say that 2 days ago, when it was Siver’s Day, that the buying looked to me as short covering…  

The price of Oil has bumped up again and starts today trading with a $76 handle, which means the Petrol Currencies aren’t seeing major selling… The 10-year Treasury starts the day with a 4.39% yield…  I would have thought that the bond boys would have gotten to pushing the yield higher after the FOMC rate announcement, but, apparently not!   

Well, the buildup of the FOMC Meeting yesterday, left everyone thinking that the Fed Heads just might surprise the markets with a rate cut… But that was not to be, as the Fed Heads kept rates unchanged… I’m sure they received a phone call from the PPT telling them that the PPT sure could use some assistance in helping to keep the dollar from falling off a cliff…   Not that that had anything to do with the Fed Heads keeping rates unchanged…  I’m speculating there… 

You know, yesterday, I was talking about the slowing down of the momentum in Gold, and then I saw this that pretty much tells me that Gold is only slowing down because it’s summer, and traditionally, Gold wallows in the summer…  This is from Moneymetals.com 

“Central banks have gobbled up over 1,000 tons of gold for three straight years, and most central bankers think the buying trend will continue.

Based on the World Gold Council’s annual Central Bank Gold Survey, it appears the buying trend will continue.

Of the 73 central banks that responded to the survey, 95 percent said they believe central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months. A record 43 percent of the respondents indicated they expect their own gold reserves to expand. That was up from 29 percent in 2024.

It was the largest number of central banks to ever respond to the World Gold Council survey. The WGC said the increase in participation isn’t just about a number.”

Chuck again… And as I’ve told you for years now…  If the Central Banks are buying physical Gold, you should too…  I know for most of you reading this letter, I’m singing to the Choir… But those of you who have procrastinated and kept saying that Gold is going to fizz out, you might want to take this info to heart and buy… I’m just saying…

 The Good Folks at GATA sent me this note that was in Forbes (but you have to have subscription to read it there) :  “China’s central bank governor has said he expects a new global currency order to emerge after decades of dominance by the U.S. dollar, with the renminbi competing in a “multi-polar international monetary system.”

Speaking at China’s flagship financial forum in Shanghai, Pan Gongsheng said the U.S. dollar had “established its dominance” after the second world war and “retained its status up till now.” He warned of “excessive reliance” on a single currency.”

Chuck again…  I go back to my speech in Orlando, Fla many years ago, when I told the audience that I thought the Chinese renminbi would overtake the dollar as the reserve currency in 10-years… Well, that didn’t happen in that time frame, but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen, eventually! 

See? I can be wrong… I admit it, (my wife would argue that point) and usually, I see the error of my ways…   I just won’t give up on this thought that China’s renminbi becomes more worldly than the dollar… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! 

And when I see an article like this that the Good Folks at GATA sent me, it give me more pfodder… “When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for U.S. Bancorp, talks to U.S. importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.

Instead, they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, or the Canadian dollar, looking to limit their exposure to further swings in the greenback.”

This is the great de-dollarization that’s going on folks… Your dollars are getting treated like they came from a banana republic… I’m just saying… 

Yesterday, I was talking about the U.S. Debt… And then I saw this figure that just makes me so angry… The May Budget Deficit was $316 Billion, and was the second largest of the fiscal year. That puts the annual deficit for the fiscal year at d $1.36 Trillion. Last year after May the deficit was 1.2 Trillion… So that means we’re ahead of last year’s $1.8 Trillion deficit…  I don’t think they give you an blue ribbons or medals or sashes for that!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty… There are no economic reports printing today because of the June Nineteenth semi-holiday…  The weekly Initial Jobless Claims that usually print on Thursday, printed yesteday, and were 245,000 filers… and tomorrow’s data only has the May Leading Indicators, which have negative for so long now, it would be a miracle to see them print positive, especially with all the awful data that’s been printing… 

To recap… The dollar selling that took place Tuesday night, faded yesterday, and the dollar rallied a bit during the day with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points.  The FOMC left rates unchanged… and for once in a Blue Moon, Chuck agrees with their stance regarding inflation… Central Banks are still looking to add to their Gold reserves this year, and our debt just keeps getting worse…. I shake my head with disbelief of this phenomenon… 

For What it’s Worth…  Well, a couple of weeks ago I wrote about how the housing market was looking like it was listing…  And now the Housing Starts have plummeted to levels not seen since 2020, the COVID year… So that’s the gist of the FWIW article today and it can be found here:Housing Starts & Permits Plunge To Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “A day after home BUILDER sentiment finally cracked (though still dramatically more ‘confident’ than home BUYERS)…

…and mortgage rates are rebounding higher, Housing Starts and Building Permits expectations were mixed ahead of this morning’s print.

The actual data was NOT mixed with both Starts (-9.8% MoM) and Permits (-2.0% MoM) well below expectations…

This is the biggest MoM drop in multi-family unit starts since 2022…

This dragged the SAARs for both Starts and Permits down to their lowest level since the CVID lock-downs…

Perhaps the most shocking chart – that explains why builders are not building single-family homes is that inventories of unsold NEW homes is surging…

This should not be a surprise given the weakness expected from builders for future sales…

Chuck again… Well, I do admit that by keeping interest rates at the current levels means mortgage rates are high (for this cycle) but Home prices are still very high, so we shouldn’t panic here… The median home price is $411,000 and the median income is $43,036…. Something there doesn’t jive in my mind… So, maybe we do need to panic! 

Market Prices 6/19/2025: American Style: A$.6465. Kiwi .5975, C$ .7295, euro 1.1477. Sterling 1.3417, Swiss $1.2208, European Style: rand 18.0892, krone 10.0580, SEK 9.6445, forint 351.46, zloty 3.7285, koruna 21.6621, RUB 78.43, yen 146.63, sing 1.2879, HKD 7.8497, INR 86.79, China 7.1873, peso 18.09, BRL 5.4931, BBDXY 1,211, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $76.35, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $36.37, Platinum $1,300.00, Palladium $1,056.00, Copper $4.86, and Gold… $3,374

That’s it for today, and this week, this time I mean it! One more day and night all by myself… Kathy comes home Friday… I thought her return was today, but again, I was proven wrong!  I made some delish shrimp kabobs last night on my Blackstone grill, with lots of pineapple on them! I love pineapple, and we have to wait so long up north for good pineapples to show up in the grocery stores… But all winter long in S. Florida where I preside, no problems!  Cardinals and Pale Hose for two today… Should be must see TV!   Junior Walker and the All Stars take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Shotgun…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

• the dollar rallies on Tuesday
• Blowing smoke…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals listened to me yesterday (NOT!) and made quick work of the Pale hose last night… I have today left on my being by myself… And there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as it’s an infusion day… I had forgotten that I was due for an infusion, until I received an email from the hospital reminding me of the appt. This won’t be an extra-long Pfennig this morning, as I’m very tired, and not feeling up to writing this morning… The band Marmalade greets me this morning with their great 60’s song: Reflections Of My Life… 

The dollar rebounded yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 7 index points… I read online that it was a correction, but in my view, it was the PPT intervening again, keeping the dollar from all the selling lately… The PPT had to do something, because the data yesterday was just plain awful, which should have led those that are still hoping for a rate cut, to point to the data and say a rate cut is still on the table… I’ll discuss the awful economic data later this morning, but for now, just keep in mind that there had to be some other worldly entity to buy dollars in the face of that awful data yesterday… 

Gold started the day yesterday up $12, but soon ran into the short paper traders and had to fight to keep any gain on the day, which was $8… Gold finished the day at $3,391;;; It was Silver’s day to shine, much like it was on a day last week!  Silver gained 76-cents yesterday and went over the $17 figure… it was important that Silver maintained the $17 figure throughout the day, and it did just that! The pundits came out of the woodwork again yesterday, calling for Silver to reach $40 this year and $50 next year… Well, if that’s to be… so be it…   There will be many tears shed on this journey, but also many smiles.. So, be patient….  And buy during the dips… 

Gold’s momentum has slowed down, and I’m wondering if it has run up against a wall that says enough is enough? I tell myself that I can wonder all I want to, but Gold still has some ways to go before saying enough is enough…  I’m just saying… And I think China will be the country to say enough is enough… They continue, as a country, to add tons of physical Gold to their reserves, replacing dollars… I have something for you on that in the FWIW section this morning, so stay tuned… 

The price of Oil jumped $2 yesterday and finished the day with a $75 handle, after the POTUS fanned the flames of deeper tensions in the Middle East… Trump posted a demand for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” in a social media post and warned of a possible strike against the country’s leader,  that led the markets to believe that he was hinting at the U.S. joining in the fight… UGH!  

When will the markets learn that when the POTUS says something like that, he’s only blowing smoke?  At least I hope that’s what he was doing… For we can’t afford to have the price of Oil going back to $100, or spread our forces even more than they are spread now… Someone in his security detail should buy him a book on the fall of the Roman Empire… I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar ran into a roadblock last night and the buying stopped…. Hmmm… The PPT doesn’t work at night…. I’m just saying…  The BBDXY starts today down 2 index points at 1,207… Gold is seeing some selling and is down $5 to start our day today, while Silver is down 7-cents…  Those are easily reversed, so buyer get to it!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $75 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some buyers and the yield dropped to 4.38%… 

Well, today is the FOMC Meeting Day, are you ready for the pack of lies that will be told to us today? Lies like the economy is moving along just fine…  We’ll see later that this just isn’t true in the Data Cupboard section. But… if the FOMC decided to throw caution into the wind, and cut rates to surprise the markets,  it would really upset the applecart, and Gold would have its new reason to be bought… 

Speaking of lies… that was a good FWIW article yesterday, eh?  All the lies that have been told to us by the Gov’t and we just accept them and go on…  But this latest statement by Treasury Sec. Bessent will be held up to be criticized in the future, if things go the way I think they will… Bessent recently said, that “The United States of American will never default”…  Hey! Mr. Treasury Sec. Didn’t your mother teach you to never say never? Mine did!   

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this that feeds right into a discussion about defaults… “Washington burned through $12 trillion in the Middle East since 2003. Result? 7,000 dead Americans. 50,000 wounded, open borders and 100,000 Americans dying yearly from Fentanyl poisoning.”

Today, the United States is $37 Trillion in debt… and it won’t be long before we get to $40 Trillion in debt… The DEBT CLOCK tells us that in 4 short years, our current Debt will be $46 Trillion…  And when you add in the Unfunded Liabilities we’re well over $100 Trillion… The numbers begin to make you numb to them, because they are so large, you can’t even think straight about them, but just remember this… Too much debt is a bad thing if you can’t pay it back… I’m just saying….

I recall a day in 2004 when the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, dropped me note that highlighted the fact that the U.S. Deficit for that year was $700 Billion…  I gasped and said this is unsustainable, and he reminded me that the U.S. can print dollars, and then walked away…  Our deficit last year was $1.8 Trillion… What the heck happened between 2004 and 2024?   Well, I’ve chronicled all the debt increases here in the Pfennig, so I won’t bore you with a recap…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the May Retail Sales, and I said that the BHI indicated that this print would be negative… Well, it was negative all right… Retail Sales for May were -.9%…  That marks two consecutive months of negative Retail Sales, folks… That’s just not what the doctor ordered for GDP…  The Data Cupboard also had the May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, which I also said would be negative in the IP… And it was just that! May Industrial Production was negative -.2%, thus reflecting a real problem in the factories…  And finally Capacity Utilization, which is one of the few forward looking data prints, fell from 77.7% to 77.4%, and that too is not a good print for the U.S. economy looking forward….

All that awful data yesterday, and the dollar rallied?  It had to be the PPT, seriously folks for who would buy dollars at that rate if the face of that data day?

To recap… The dollar rebounded yesterday and the some pundits thought it was a “correction”, but Chuck says that the rebound had the PPT’s prints all over it… it was Silver’s day yesterday, and Chuck thinks about how Gold’s momentum has slowed… And then Chuck talks about our debt… UGH!

For What It’s Worth… This article is about how China continues to amass large quantities of physical Gold and why they are doing so…  and it was on Zerohedge.com 

Or, here’s your snippet: “While most eyes have been on tariffs and Treasury market turmoil, China has quietly executed one of the most aggressive gold accumulation strategies in the world.

And they’re not just doing it for insurance. There’s a bigger shift underway.

A Strategic Reserve Overhaul

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has now increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months—adding more than 300 metric tons since late 2022. Official holdings now top 2,200 tons, the highest ever. But some analysts believe the real figure could be far larger.

Behind this buying spree is a clear motivation: reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets.

Private Investors Are Joining In

It’s not just the central bank. In April 2025, Chinese investors funneled over 70 metric tons into gold ETFs—more than doubling any previous monthly record.

Why? A slowing economy and ongoing trade uncertainty have driven domestic demand for hard assets. Gold is increasingly viewed as the best way to hedge against these shocks.

A Bid to Elevate the Yuan

By backing the yuan with growing gold reserves, China aims to enhance its currency’s global credibility. That’s a direct challenge to the U.S. dollar’s dominance in trade and reserves.

This isn’t a short-term move. It’s part of a long-term effort to reshape the global monetary order—and gold is the foundation.

 China isn’t speculating. Neither are the dozens of other central banks that have added 1,000+ metric tons of gold annually in recent years.

When nations begin treating gold as a strategic asset again, retail investors should take note. These moves aren’t about profit—they’re about survival, trust, and sovereignty. If central banks are using gold to diversify away from U.S. risk, individuals might want to ask: should I be doing the same?”

Chuck again… yes, I’ve always maintained that China’s goal was to have the most physical Gold when the fit hits the shan, Then he who has the Gold makes the rules, and that’s what China is after… They also want to back their currency with a portion of Gold and that would be a death knell for the dollar…  

Market Price 6/18/2025: American Style: A$ 6499, kiwi .6026, C$ .7330, euro 1.1504, sterling 1.3330, Swiss $1.2345, European Style: rand 18.0803, krone 9.9525, SEK 9.5960, forint 350.83, zloty 3.7154, koruna 21.5675, RUB 78.70, yen 144.93, sing 1.2849, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.49, China 7.1883, peso 18.96, BRL 5.5038, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.63, Oil $75.34, 10-year 4.38%, Silver $37.08, Platinum $1,308.00, Palladium $1,073, Copper $4.89, and Gold… $3,386

That’s if for today, and this week… sorry about tomorrow, but as I’ve explained before, I always take the first appt in the infusion room of the day, so that I’m not subjected to delays… Next week will be shortened too, as I will be having cataract surgery on the 26th…  We’re supposed to be getting some more strong storms today, so that rules out me sitting outside to read. UGH!  We had our first day above 90 degrees yesterday, that was very late for that event… And this coming weekend Is supposed to be very hot! So, we have that going for us! HA!  Del Shannon takes us to the finish line this morning with his great 60’s song: Runaway… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought a little on Monday
• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! No Cardinals Baseball last night for me, so I did some reading of articles, etc. Another day myself… no worries!  I did talk to my daughter, Dawn, through a closed door yesterday, so there was that! Yesterday started out very cloudy, but turned into a nice sunny day for me to sit out and read… I’m all up-to-date with my Cormoran Strike books, and have now started a new series of stories featuring Jack Noble… Wild Cherry greets me this morning with their 1- hit wonder song: Play That Funky Music

Well, the selling of the dollar took a breather yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 2 index points to end the day at 1,202…   The euro gained on the day though and went further up in the 1.15 handle… And Gold was down for the count with the short paper traders taking liberties, they were relentless and kept Gold down all day until the day finished with Gold losing $48 and closing at $3,383.  UGH! 

Silver remained stuck in the mud yesterday and ended up 1 penny on the day. Gold closed the day. Silver closed the day at $36.36…  To me, this is kind of funny.. You see, last week after Silver made its surge in price, everyone came out of the woodwork talking about how Silver is going to soar from then… But to me it’s funny because that’s not how things work…  You can’t count your eggs before they’re hatched, and you can’t count your Silver winnings before they are made…  

There are just too many underlying issues with Silver because it has so many uses… And remember that there are 180 days of production in Silver to equal the short ounces that are out there, and in Gold there are 60 days of production needed to fill the short ounces…   Don’t ask me how they get away with all that… Because I’ve told you a few times in the past… spoiler alert: The Gov’t is involved…

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday to end the day trading with a $73 handle… And the 10-year Treasury not being burdened by the goings on in the Middle East, saw selling that took the bond’s yield to 4.44%

In The overnight markets last night…  Sans short paper traders, Gold is up $12 this morning, and Silver is back to rallying with it up 79-cents… The dollar has been sold a little overnight and the BBDXY has slipped one index point to 1,201… I’m so convinced that the FOMC will not cut rates tomorrow, that I can see the dollar rebounding a bit, but I guess it all depends on how forceful the comment about future rate cuts is from the Fed Chairman, following the rate announcement. 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped back to 4.41%…  if you’ve been reading this letter daily, you’ll know that I truly believe that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel has been buying this and the 30-year Treasury bond to contain the yield and to make the Treasury market appear safe… 

There was this on the dailyhodl.com regarding Treasury buying… “The move has triggered social media speculation that a stealth quantitative easing operation is now underway, with the Treasury mimicking the Federal Reserve’s money-printing tactics to stimulate the economy.

Skeptics argue that by repurchasing illiquid bonds with borrowed funds, the Treasury is subtly propping up the bond market to maintain confidence in an overextended system.

But Bianco Research’s Jim Bianco says claims that the Treasury’s moves are a form of quiet QE are way off the mark.

“Everyone is calling Treasury buybacks “stealth QE.” They misunderstand. This is the Treasury, not the Fed…

The Treasury cannot “print.” The Treasury borrows new more liquid “on-the-run” bonds and uses the proceeds to buyback old illiquid “off-the-run” bonds.

Buybacks do not “create money,” rather they improve the overall quality of the bond market.”

Chuck again.. Well, to me, yield control is yield control no matter how you paint that picture… the famous line is: You can put lipstick on a pig, but you’ve still got a pig..  I’m just saying…

Well, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) met last night for us, Tuesday for them, and they decided to keep rates unchanged at .50%  I can see what the BOJ is concerned about and that is the rest of the world is slowing, and they don’t want to slow up the Japanese economy one iota…  They also have to have in the back of their collective minds that the yen didn’t gain much and is right back to where it started, when they did hike rates, what do they have to do to light a fire under the yen? 

Longtime readers know that I think that Japan is a basket case with their bad demographics, their debt, their inability to hike rates when they should have done so, and other problems…  I wouldn’t touch that currency with your ten foot pole! 

The Petrol Currencies have really enjoyed this run-up of the price of Oil… And for a country like Norway, who is so closely tied to the euro, (there are no real ties, just perceived ones) and their dependence on Oil revenues, this is a doubledeedoo, for them! And those are the items behind Norway’s krone finally going below 10…  (remember, krone is a European type currency, so as the price goes down, it’s gaining VS the dollar) 

The other Petrol Currencies like the Russian ruble, pound sterling, Brazilian real, Canadian loonie, and Mexican peso, and others, are all feeling better about their ability to gain investment these days… 

And the Euro Wannabes are all firmly on the rally tracks now, folks… And to me that means the dollar has entered a new weak trend, no tiptoeing around it, or sneaking through the alley with Sally (Palmer) I know the PPT is always out there like the wolf at the door, but at this point, the rot on dollar’s vine has been exposed, and it will take a lot of TLC to heal it… That TLC includes cutting debt, balancing the budget, and get our of wars…. proxy wars are not, get out of them! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Empire State Mfg Index and it was awful with a print of negative -16!  I was a day ahead of myself and the data prints yesterday, but today we will see May Retail Sales, (The BHI says it will be negative) and industrial Production & Capacity Utilization… Chuck said yesterday that IP will be negative, and he’s sticking to that! 

For What It’s Worth… OK, usual daily readers of the Pfennig know that I admire Matthew Piepenburg of Swiss Gold. And his writings… Well, he’s back today with a great piece of Gold and the lies that have been told to us through the years, and it can be found here:GOLD: The Global Financial System’s Lie Detector?

Or, here’s your snippet: “Is gold calling out a broken global financial system?

One Big…Lie?

Earlier this year, I was asked to give my most “heretic” opinion about the global financial system.

This was an unusual yet bold question, and after a brief pause, I answered that the entire system was…, well:

“A lie.”

This may seem like a sensational response in an industry sometimes prone to the sensational; however, if we look at stubborn facts, the answer is truer than it is extreme.

When it comes to a financial system rotting from within, the Botox-like beauty of our ballooning S&P and centralized credit market hides an aging and decrepit disease.

That is, policy lies, like Botox, can’t hide reality forever, and the evidence of a fatally debt-sick system hiding financial truths behind forked tongues and euphemistic lingo is literally all around us.

A Long List of Truth-Stretching…

From the very era of my birth, the list of lies is almost comical.

Nixon:

In 1971, for example, when Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold [thereby allowing his own and future administrations the unfettered luxury (and sickness) of expanding (debasing) the money supply], he promised the measure would be “temporary” and that “our dollar would be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.”

Both statements, of course, were open lies.

54 years later, the dollar remains un-chaperoned to gold, and when measured against a milligram of that same precious metal, the USD (and other major Fiat currencies) has lost 99% of its purchasing power.

Meanwhile, gold is rising faster against the USD and other world currencies as their purchasing power is diluted by desperate policies to inflate away their debt with debased currencies.

Lying to Our Founding Fathers:

It’s also worth noting that our fiat paper Dollar, un-backed by gold, is a direct contradiction to our Constitution, and in my mind, is itself just another, well…Lie.

Wilson’s Fed:

But long before the lies of 1971, let us not forget the lie of 1913, when Wilson signed an equally unconstitutional Federal Reserve into law, a so-called “independent” bank which is anything but independent (it’s effectively a fourth branch of government) and is neither “Federal” nor a “Reserve.”

Larry Summers:

Fast forward to the great financial crisis of 2008, which was effectively a mortgage—backed-security credit implosion driven by an unregulated derivatives market, and we see even more staggering dishonesty.

A decade before this levered credit implosion, Assistant Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was called to Congress to answer Brooksley Born’s concerns (as head of the CFTC) that these derivative instruments, if left unregulated, would destabilize markets.

Summers publicly embarrassed Born and then told the world that the bankers in charge of these OTC instruments of levered destruction were more than sophisticated enough to manage the risks.

Of course, by the 2008 market implosion, we all knew that assertion was a lie.”

Chuck again… Matthew then goes on to tell you about the lies of Bernanke and Yellen, but I ran out of time and space… So, you’ll have to click the link to read the rest of this great article!

Market Prices 6/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6541, kiwi .6079, C$ .7373, euro 1.1571. Sterling 1.3571, Swiss $1.2315, European Style; rand 17.8199, krone 9.8751, SEK 9.4086, forint 348.07, zloty 3.6952, koruna 21.43358, RUB 78.43, yen 144.58, sing 1.2808, HKD 7.8497, INR 86.24, China 7.1827, peso 18.93, BRL 5.4923, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar index 98.04, Oil $73.14, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $37.18, Platinum $1,275.00, Palladium $1,054.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $3.495

That’s it for today… WOW! Is all I can say about that Arkansas pitcher who pitched just the 3^rd no-hitter in World Series history, and when he grazed a batter in the 9^th inning with a pitch, he lost his perfect game! He was great! He had 19 strikeouts! Simply amazing! Gage Wood is his name… and a name that will be heard of in the future, I do think…. My beloved Cardinals get back in the box tonight with a game with the pale hose (White Sox) C’mon boys you’ve gotta get back in the winning column!  The Cowsills take us to the finish line today with their song: The Rain, The Park and Other Things… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally as the dollar gets taken to the woodshed.
• It’s an FOMC week….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Man, I’m really dragging the line this morning. Too much fun yesterday, I guess…  I had a wonderful Father’s Day with my kids and grandkids, I hope you had a wonderful day too!  My Cardinals lost 3 of 4 games this past weekend in Milwaukee. UGH!  There was some major saber rattling going on in the MidEast, so we have that to talk about today… R.E.M. Greets me this morning with a very timely song: It’s The End Of The World As We Know It… 

Well, by now you all have heard that Israel attacked Iran and tried to take out their nuclear facilities… The rumors are ripe that the U.S. was behind this attack…  Either way, the dollar got sent to the woodshed on Friday, and lost 9 index points in the BBDXY, finishing out the week at 1200…  The euro shot higher to the 1.15 handle, and the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog down the street chasing the dollar… 

I told you last week that the dollar was slowly showing us that it was entering a weak trend, and there were tons of articles this week with pundits coming out of the woodwork, talking about how the dollar’s slide could get much deeper… Well, if the dollar is indeed entering a new weak trend, then these pundits will be proven correct… But there was one thing that all of these articles forgot to mention, and that is there’s this entity called the PPT that could correct the dollar’s slide in a New York Minute… I’m just saying… 

But history shows us that that during the second half of a new POTUS’S first year, the dollar slides… So, we have that going for us, eh ?  And you longtime readers know all too well that I’m a BIG history repeating itself person… 

Gold had a good end of the week, last week… On Thursday Gold gained $32, and on Friday Gold gained $44 to end the week at $3,433… Silver has found the footing after its initial surge, a bit slippery… Silver ended the week at $36.35…  Gold showed its true colors by rallying after the news of a potential Middle East war came to light… 

And the price of Oil leapt to $74 at one point on Friday and finished the week at $72.98… The threat here is that the Strait of Hormuz could get shut down in the events of a conflict breaking out, and that would deep six Oil deliveries to the rest of the world, including the U.S.  Do you see now the importance of the U.S. getting back to Oil independence?  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gained 1 index point, and tried to wrap a tourniquet around the bleeding in the dollar…  Remember, a weak trend in the dollar does not mean a ONE-WAY Street… There will be times that the dollar rebounds a bit, but if the dollar is truly in a weak trend, it will swiftly return to the underlying weak trend…  I’m just saying… 

Gold is seeing some profit taking to start the day/ week this morning and is down $11… Silver is flat to up a penny…  The price of Oil remained in the $72 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury, starts the week with a yield of 4.40%

The key thing taken out of this mess last week was that the dollar is no longer a safe haven go to… And neither is the Treasuries… Gold has replaced these to former stalwarts of safe havens when the geopolitics begin to get ugly… 

I found this on Barron’s this past weekend: “The U.S. dollar fell to the lowest level in more than three years Thursday, extending one of its longest runs of declines on record as the “Sell America” trade gathers pace among foreign investors.”

The Big Event this week will be the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday…  I think the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged, and point to the future that will have a rate cut after more economic data prints…  This won’t make the POTUS very happy, and he’s called for a full 100 Basis Points (1%) rate cut…  

There’s also a note going around that a “shadow Fed Chairman” could be in the works, thus taking the interest rate setting away from the FOMC…  Look, the Fed Heads are a bunch of chuckleheads, but it’s the way we’ve done things since 1913… I think that removing this ability to set interest rates would be very upsetting to the markets… I’m just saying… 

I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning, regarding China and its currency. This is interesting to me that is… “China’s desire to boost exports at a time of global trade turmoil means the yuan now looks set to weaken against most major currencies. One possible exception: the dollar.

The People’s Bank of China has kept the yuan’s moves against the dollar relatively steady through its daily fixing. The diverging strategies may suggest authorities are allowing the yuan to weaken against other currencies, rather than the dollar, to preserve competitiveness and cushion its export sector during ongoing trade negotiations with the administration of US President “

Chuck again, and once again, the media uses “yuan” as the currency’s name for China’s currency… They do that because saying “renminbi” is too difficult for them! The official name of the Chinese currency is renminbi…  

Do you believe the Chinese are allowing the renminbi to weaken VS the dollar to tick off the POTUS?  Well, that may hold a little bit of their reason for doing this, but the real McCoy here is that they need to keep exports to the U.S. going at a high rate… period… 

And before we head to the BIG FINISH this morning, I want to give a big shout out to the Congressmen who sponsored a new Bill to audit the Fed… The initiative, known as the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), was introduced by Congressman Thomas Massie alongside three co-sponsors. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But before we get there today, we’ll see the color of the May Retail Sales… The BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates that Retail Sales for May will be negative… We’ll also see the color of May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and I think the Industrial Production will also be negative…  

To recap… The dollar got sold down the river late last week after the report of a Middle East conflict… Gold soared and as Chuck pointed out last week Gold is the new safe haven above the dollar and Treasuries…  It’s a FOMC meeting week, and Chuck thinks it’ll be same-o, same-o for the FOMC.. 

For What it’s Worth… I mentioned this above this morning, so I thought it to be appropriate to have an article to back it up. This is about taking away the FOMC’s rate setting ability and it can be found here: Effort to strip Fed of interest paying power seen likely to bring upheaval to markets | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “A Republican senator’s plan to take away the Federal Reserve’s power to pay banks interest on cash they park on central bank books could cause chaos for monetary policy implementation if it were implemented, market participants said.

In recent days, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been speaking about this power and his desire to see it ended as part of what he views as an effort to save money by the federal government. Stripping the Fed of the longstanding power would save the government $1 trillion, Cruz said in a CNBC interview last week. The senator said then that he did not know if it was likely his effort would work but that it was certainly possible.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg, reported that Cruz had also lobbied President Donald Trump, who has long been at odds with the Fed, as well as Republican colleagues, about his idea.

“We’re agonizing trying to find a $50 billion cut here and there. This is over a trillion dollars, big dollars in savings,” Cruz told Bloomberg, saying of the payments, “half of it is going to foreign banks, which makes no sense.”

Cruz’s office did not respond to a request for comment. The Fed declined to comment.

Cruz’s effort is being treated cautiously by Senator Tim Scott, the Republican from South Carolina who chairs the Senate Finance Committee. “While the desire to return to pre-crisis monetary policy operating procedures is understandable,” the matter must be considered under normal Senate procedures, Scott said in a statement. Any move on this must start with a hearing, Scott said, adding, “this is not a decision to be rushed – it must be carefully considered and openly debated.”

Chuck again… I don’t really think that this will come to fruition, but you never know? 

Market Prices 6/16/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .6046, C$ .7367, euro 1.1576, sterling 1.3585, Swiss $1.2332, European Style: rand 17.7799, krone 9.9032, SEK 9.4676, forint 346.53, zloty 3.6823, koruna 21.4680, RUB 78.71, yen 144.70, sing 1.2801, HKD 7.8494, INR 86.05, China 71801, peso 18.90, BRL 5.5436, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.99, Oil $72.29, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $36.36, Platinum $1,267.00, Palladium $1,059.00, Copper $4.80, and Gold… $3,419

That’s it for today… I cringed when I saw the report that Israel had attacked Iran unprovoked… I don’t know where this is going to lead us, but my spider sense is telling me that it’s not a good place…  I’m still all by myself here and doing just fine!  My vitals are good every day when I take them, I have gained 5 lbs in the last couple of weeks, and that’s not good! But my doctor told me to stop losing weight.. So, I’m just following his orders! HA!  A grand time yesterday on the Butler Patio… It was a cloudy day, but no rain, so it was all good!   Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please! Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• And overnight, the dollar is personal non gratis…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… I make it a habit to watch Jeopardy daily, and the other day the song Tub Thumpin’ was the answer to a clue… I actually got that one right! My beloved Cardinals got swept by the Jays… UGH! They move on to Milwaukee now for the weekend series with the Brew Crew…   R.E.M. Greets me this morning with their popular song: The One I Love… 

Well, the dollar got sold yesterday as the STUPID CPI didn’t show any gains in inflation or did it show any drops… The stuck in the mud inflation, according to the BLS didn’t do the dollar any favors, because out the window went the rate cut hopes for July…  The BBDXY lost 4 index points yesterday…  Gold rallied on the day, and gained $32 to close at $3,356…  Silver hasn’t really seen the kind of buying it saw last week, which tells me I was correct in my thought that that day’s buying was mainly short covering… Silver lost ground yesterday and finished the day at $36.28, down 28-cents on the day… 

The price of Oil jumped higher again yesterday, and this time it closed the day trading with a $68 handle! Here’s Bloomberg.com with the reason for the jump in the price of Oil… “Oil surged as the US government ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq amid rising security risks.”  

Chuck again… The Fed heads must have been in keeping bond yields from getting too high again yesterday, because the 10-year’s yield fell from 4.49% yesterday morning to 4.40% at the close… Another big jump in yields that has to indicate that large buyers were in buying bonds, and I can only think of one large buyer that would want to take on more risk in Treasuries, and that is the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… I’m just saying… 

I’ve got something for you in the FWIW section today regarding Treasuries and how the time is near that the debt in the U.S. is nearing an end…  So, stay tuned, same bat channel, same bat time!

In the overnight markets last night…  Uh Oh… Time for the PPT to appear because the dollar is slip sliding away (Simon) this morning… The BBDXY has lost 7 index points overnight, and even the old Dollar Index has dropped below 98… The euro is trading above 1.15 of which I had to do a double take this morning when looking at the currencies… The rest of the currencies including the Chinese renminbi have gained ground VS the dollar this morning and look much healthier. 

I think this illustrates the feeling that I have the dollar is no longer a safe haven go to…  Gold has replaced the dollar, euro, yen and franc as the yesteryear safe havens for currencies…  In fact, the European Central Bank (ECB) issued a report over the weekend stating that Gold had replaced the euro as a reserve asset in Central Banks… I would think that it won’t be too much longer before Gold becomes the number 1 reserve asset of Central Banks globally… 

Gold starts today at $3,382, up quite a bit from yesterday’s close… Silver is not receiving the same amount of love from buyers at this point this morning and is up only 4-cents.  

The price of Oil continued to rise in the overnight markets and starts today trading with a $66 handle…  And the buying of bonds continued overnight, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond falling to 4.37% to start our day today… 

This selling of the dollar is really building momentum folks… I think at this point you came come out of your shelters, and celebrate that the mean old witch (the dollar) caught under the house that fell on it… And without the PPT to help the dollar, it will slowly die…    I’m just saying… 

The dollar even though it has fallen from 1,230 ish earlier this year, to 1,200 this morning (in the BBDXY)  is still overvalued, so from my viewpoint, which is from the cheap seats, it shows to go you that the dollar has far more to drop!   Are you with me? 

Yesterday, I mentioned that Sly Stone had died… I still picture him raising his arms above his head in a V at Woodstock, him and his white jacket with fringe…  And then yesterday I read where Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys had died… Two Rock icons back to back… i know that we all grow old and die… But this news made me sad… 

The folks at Kitco.com have their ideas on what’s behind Gold’s recent ascent… so here they are: “A key driver behind gold’s ascent has been the persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar, which Morrison notes remains “overvalued by many measures.” This currency dynamic aligns with President Trump’s stated preference for a weaker dollar to enhance American export competitiveness, creating an environment where dollar-denominated gold becomes more attractive to international investors.”

Chuck again…  Yes, slowly but surely, we are seeing the makings of a weak dollar trend, and that could be manna from heaven for the currencies, who have suffered a long time from the overvalued dollar… All the weak economic data prints in recent times paints a different picture than what your Gov’t economist will tell you about… But you don’t have to listen to them.. You have me and this letter that will chronicle all the weak economic data prints… And it’s all free! 

And regarding a store of value… I feel and I guess most of you do too, that Gold is a better store of value / wealth than the U.S. dollar…  I know that Americans are used to everything being priced in dollars… But those dollars are forever losing purchasing power.  Inflation reports in this country can’t be trusted… Only John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  computes inflation the right way, using the prices from goods that don’t change in a basket each month…  Inflation in this country is much higher than any Gov’t reports will tell us it is… and that’s eating away at your purchasing power folks… Does your dollar buy you the same size or amount of something you regularly buy this year VS last year, or even 5 years ago?  

But Gold would… You see, when Gold rises in price, the dollar loses ground, maybe not seen in the price but in the things that get priced in the dark…  Gold is much better at pricing anything…  I’m just saying… 

And you don’t have to take my word for it… “The potential issuance of more than $1 trillion in new government debt could make commodities a smarter defensive plays than bonds, according to “The Bear Traps Report” founder Larry McDonald.”

OK, let’s talk about something else, I’m beginning to break out with a rash! 

But before we move on from Gold, I saw this and it made me chuckle: “Ironic: Dollar-enforcer IMF wants to put Zimbabwe on a de-facto gold standard”  

Makes no sense to me that the IMF wants to do that… I’m just saying… 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this article that I’ve clipped out a snippet for your that will give you the gist of what the rest of the article is about: “A draft law submitted to the State Duma at the end of May will permit the federal government to use the digital ruble to pay for a limited list of budget expenditures starting October 1. The full-scale use of the central bank-controlled digital currency for all types of budget payments will begin on January 1, 2026.”

I’m shocked that the U.S. allowed the Russians to beat us to the punch here.. .Aren’t you? Oh, well, I don’t want to see a digital dollar but that’s not going to stop one from being issued here… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the STIPID CPI and the annual consumer inflation remained at 2.4% for May, according to the Gov’t reporters… Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been edging upward recently, And May’s print of PPI (wholesale inflation)…  

To recap.. The dollar got sold yesterday, and some say it was because the monthly inflation data was softer by .1% I guess the dollar bugs still think there’s a chance of a rate cut in July… Chuck says he doesn’t think it will happen in July… 

For What It’s Worth… Here’s an article I talked about above, and its Jeffrey Gundlach a bond guru, talking and I thought we needed to listen, and you can do that by clicking here: Jeffrey Gundlach Warns US Deficit Adds Risk to Treasuries – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “America’s debt burden and interest expense have become “untenable,” a situation that may lead investors to move out of dollar-based assets, according to DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach.

“There’s an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,” the veteran bond manager said Wednesday in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles. A “reckoning is coming.”

In a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on gold’s attractiveness, stretched market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach said investors should consider increasing their non-dollar-based holdings, adding that his firm was starting to introduce foreign currencies into its funds.

DoubleLine Capital CEO and CIO Jeffrey Gundlach says a “reckoning is coming” for US Treasuries. “You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments,” he said at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum.

Gundlach, 65, likened today’s market to the environment in 1999, just before the dotcom bust, as well as 2006 and 2007 before the global financial crisis. Going further, he said the booming private credit sector is analogous to the market for collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, in the mid-2000s, “where there’s just tremendous issuance, there’s tremendous acceptance.”

The investor noted that public credit markets have outperformed their private counterparts in recent months, and sees “overinvestment” — and a risk of forced selling — in the latter.

“I just don’t think the excess reward is anything close to what it used to be,”

Chuck again…  all things that I’ve talked about, but when guys like Gundlach talk about them people should listen! 

Market Prices 6/12/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .6064, C$ .7335, euro 1.1505, sterling 1.3685, Swiss $1.2307, European Style: rand 17.8057, krone 9.9801, SEK 9.4312, forint 345.64, zloty 3.7564, koruna 21.3765, RUB 80.04, yen 143.74, sing 1.2795, HKD 7.8483, INR 85.84, China 7.1753, peso 18.89, BRL 5.5613, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 97.89, Oil $66.91, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $36.28, Platinum $1,273.00, Palladium $1,080.00, Copper $4.80, and Gold… $3,382

That’s it for today… Well, today is the 49^th anniversary of Chuck and Kathy… I’ll have to celebrate it by myself as Kathy is in Florida right now… Next year it will be the BIG 50, Golden Anniversary… I think a big party ought to take place! I know where 2 of my groomsmen are, but the other 2 are AWOL!  So, I’ve got a year to find them! And Sunday is Father’s Day… My son Andrew called me last night to tell me he and his brother, Alex,  will be coming over to celebrate the day with me…  Last Sunday, all 4 grandkids were here in the pool… I watched them full of pride… All four can swim like fish.. And I can’t swim a lick!  Oh well too late to start now… Paul McCartney and Wings take us to the finish line today with their song: Band On The Run…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and all the Dads out there have a great day on Sunday… Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals go nowhere yesterday
• Germany wants their Gold returned… Good luck with that!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, after a great May for my beloved Cardinals they have started June on a sour note… Suddenly, they can’t pitch… They’re still hitting the ball, but no pitching is dooming them… UGH!  Well, my first day all by myself went well, if I do say so myself! I don’t foresee any problems arising, but then I didn’t foresee it when I had my stroke, or when I woke up in the middle of the night bleeding internally…  So, we’ll just keep our fingers crossed…  I read the other day that the great Sly Stone had died…  And therefore, I put his song on first this morning: If You Want Me To Stay…  

Well, I sure didn’t miss anything yesterday, as the dollar was flat as a pancake (Head East) Gold was going nowhere, neither was Silver, the price of Oil was flat, and the 10-year Treasury was quiet…  The BBDXY ended the day at 1,209, that’s the same level it started the day at, and the euro remained above the 1.14 figure…  There was no real economic data to move the markets, and so without any Tariffs to damage the quiet markets, there was little going on other than the riots in L.A. 

The lack of economic data ends today, as the STUPID CPI for May will print…  The markets believe that this print will be the determinate of FOMC’s decision to either cut rates in July or leave them unchanged again.  Longtime readers know I don’t like to start the letter with economic data, but I have to call out the markets here for putting so many eggs in the CPI’s basket…  I would think that by now, the markets and the especially the FOMC would be quite aware that the STUPID CPI is not the real word on inflation… Maybe the FOMC knows, but the markets still get giddy when it’s a SUPID CPI day… 

I can’t help but think that the STUPID CPI will surprise the markets with a stronger inflation number than they are expecting…  Right now, the experts think that the STIPID CPI on an annual basis will be 2.4%…   yeah, consumer inflation is on 2.4%… I believe that one like I believe in the luck that comes to you if you find a four-leaf clover… 

OK, so Gold closed yesterday at $3,324, and Silver closed at $36.56… the price of Oil remained trading with a $64 handle, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.48% at the close yesterday…  Those levels are not far, and in some cases bang on, from where they stood at Monday’s close.. 

In the overnight markets last night… There was a bit of slippage in the dollar overnight, as the BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,210… The STUPID CPI print today will dictate which way the dollar goes from here… I shake my head in disgust that the markets swallow the STUPID CPI hook, line and sinker… But it is what it is, and there’s nothing I can do to change it, except point out how stupid the print is each month…   

Gold is up $10 to start our day today, and Silver is seeing some pressure and is down 26-cents to start our day today…  The price of Oil has bumped higher and trades with a $65 handle this morning…  Wouldn’t you know it? I noticed yesterday when I took my car to the shop for the inspection, that I needed to buy gas soon… it aways works out that way, that I need to buy gas whenever Oil bumps higher in price… UGH!   

The 10-year Treasury bond remained around the 4.50% level overnight, and starts the day today trading with a 4.47% yield…  This yield will too be influenced by the results of the STIPID CPI today… 

Well, countries around the world that decided to hold their Gold reserves in the U.S. are starting to ask the question, why?  Here’s a snippet of an article that was on Money Metals.com “With the U.S. weaponizing the dollar and trade, some people in Germany are calling on the Bundesbank to move at least some of its gold out of New York and bring it home to minimize the risk of U.S. meddling.

Germany owns the second-largest gold reserves in the world at 3,352 tonnes. About 1,200 tons valued at around $130 billion are stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

Chuck again…  yes, if I were the king of a country other than the U.S., and I saw everything that’s going on in the U.S. I would demand my country’s Gold be returned immediately! Do you remember the last time Germany requested their Gold be returned? And the Fed NY told them that they would have to wait several months before that demand could be met?  And an audit of our Gold holdings hasn’t been done in decades, does that make any sense to you? 

So, all the markets are talking about these days, is Silver… And usually that means that when you jump in cab and the cabbies tells you that he just bought some Silver, that the run is about over… But in Silver’s case, it has lagged Gold’s rise for so long and been held down, by the short paper traders, that I think the talk is more of a “look at Silver!, boy we’re surprised!) So, I’m not worried about the cabbies talking about Silver…  I’m just saying…   My call for Silver hasn’t changed… I expect Silver to hit $40 this year, and get back to $50 next year where it last traded in 2011…

In 2011, Forbes called me and asked to write an article for them about Silver, as it was rising through the $40 figure… The headline for the story was: Silver, The New Gold… and it ran, thus making me a regular name in households all over the world… Silver then did rise above $50 before it dropped like a rock….  

How did Silver make it to $50 with the short paper traders on the prowl? Well, this was a case that I’ve pointed out many times through the years, in that if everyone bought physical metals it would end the short paper schemes…  And that’s what happened in 2011…   

Speaking of the short paper trader’s scheme… They remain in the markets almost daily, as they still try to keep a lid on Gold & Silver…  Oh, Shoot Rudy, they have widened their scheme to Copper, Platinum and Palladium too!    But if all the ETF holders were to sell their ETF and buy the physical metal, then we could see the short paper trading scheme dissolved… Maybe?

Here are the good folks at GATA regarding that thought: “In any case GATA has long suspected that gold ETFs were, like the U.S. gold futures market, established to divert investment from real metal into mere derivatives that could create a vast, imaginary supply of gold as long as investors didn’t get wise to the racket and demand delivery.

Of course, lately there seems to have been many demands for delivery of gold, including heavy demands from central banks themselves. The major central banks, being members of the BIS, the hub of gold intervention, surely figured out long ago what was going on and, in taking delivery, have signified that they’re no longer playing along with the racket and the U.S. dollar imperialism it was engineered to enforce.”

Chuck again… We can only hope that comes to fruition, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI this morning for May… I’ll say no more about how STUPID this data is…  And that’s the only print of the day today… I’m sure the BLS will see to it that the STUPID CPI doesn’t rise…  Don’t you just love manipulators? I know that I don’t think I could function without them! NOT! 

To recap… yesterday was a nothing day in the markets that we follow… Gold, Silver, the dollar, Oil and bonds were flat to even on the day, and so, the markets must have known that I was gone for the day!  HA!   Germany wants its physical Gold back… And Chuck gloats about his past! You won’t want to have missed that! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this was bound to happen when all the talk of very high tariffs were being announced for China… And this is the result that can be found here: China Exports To US Tumble As Transshipments To Evade Trump Tariffs Soar | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Overnight China published its latest inflation/trade data dump. It showed that, as expected, China is still unable to kick start its economy as it remains mired in deflation, with May CPI printing -0.1% (the last time CPI was positive was in January) while PPI is going from bad to worse, printing -3.3% YoY, and negative since February 2023!

Meanwhile, China’s trade growth moderated in May – after the April surge – despite the substantial tariff rollback between the U.S. and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy).

The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China’s exports to the U.S. with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, the decline in imports appears widespread, consistent with fewer working days in May compared with a year ago.

By product, export value of housing-related products fell in May, while exports of automobile and tech-related products rose. The imports of energy products and metal ores declined notably, partly due to falling prices. Overall, the trade surplus was US$103.2bn in May, higher than in April.

By region, while China’s exports to the US plunged further in May, exports to other economies picked up.”

Chuck again… Well, if you have the time to view this article on line, you’ll find a lot of very interesting charts regarding what this article is all about… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 6/11/ 2025: American Style: A$ 6506, kiwi .6029, C$ .7327, euro 1.1430, sterling 1.3490, Swiss $1.2158, European Style: rand 17.7876, krone 10.1199, SEK 9.6127, forint 350.37, zloty 3.7874, koruna 21.6769, RUB 79.04, yen 145.20, sing 1.2866,  HKD 7.8482, INR 85.55, China 7.1882, peso 19.01, BRL 5.5146, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 99.-06, Oil $65.92, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $36.30, Platinum $1,267.00, Palladium $1,094.00, Copper $4.78, and Gold… $3,333

That’s it for today… Well, I think I had told you that my cataract surgery is now scheduled for June 26th… So, there’ll be no Pfennig on that day, just mark your calendar!  This coming Sunday is Father’s Day… And it’s at this time each year that I get all sappy about my dad… I’ll try not to do that this year… But I sure miss my dad, he was a man among men, and I’ll leave it at that… for now…  make sure you go to see your dad, and tell him you love him…   Because, well, just because!  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song from the same album name: Aja…  ( I love this album!) I hope you have a Wonderful  Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler