Author: admin

• the dollar is a runaway bus!
• Inflation on the rise?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Every time I turn on our Blues so afar this season, I watch the blow a lead, and lose the game… So, maybe I should keep away from their telecasts! My new GI doc was a hoot! She said she had read my entire health record, and I said, No way! And she repeated my whole history with cancer…. I said, OK, you win! She was so kind to me, as if I were porcelain, She kept wanting to help me up and down…. You know, there’s one thing that I’ve learned through my time with cancer and other maladies, is that it’s OK to allow people to help you, if that’s what they think will help…. Lori Meeham greets me this morning with her versions of the song: We Three Kings…

 Well, the STUPID CPI was up on a year-on-=year basis, and that was the first uptick for the data set since March of this year…. YOY The STUPID CPI was 2.6% up from 2.4% in Sept.  And that news sent the dollar bugs running around the kitchen floor, here, there, everywhere, and at the end of the day the BBDXY had gained 4 index points…. There’s just no stopping this runaway Bus, the dollar that is….  You see, traders took this rise in annual inflation to another level, and said, “this means it will make it tricky for the FOMC to keep cutting rates”, and off went the dollar to higher ground…  

Gold, which was up in the early morning, then turned and the short paper traders came out to play again, and when all the dust settled on the day, Gold had lost $27 on the day… Silver, which was up 22-cents in the early trading, then saw the same selling as Gold did and settled at the end of day losing 66-cents… Gold closed at $2,573.30, and Silver closed at $30.39….  

I’m telling you now, so maybe you’ll listen to me later, but everyone just needs to calm down…. Do not panic sell here! If anything use all this selling to buy at cheaper levels….  With inflation on the rise again, this will get Gold going again… Will you look to buy at these cheaper levels, or will you procrastinate and buy once Gold is back to $2,700 and beyond? 

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield said, “OK Fed Heads try and stop me today from rising”… And it rose to 4.48%  

I think the Fed Heads are realizing that they are losing the bond market…  And the bond vigilantes are back! 

In the overnight markets last night: I know I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but here it is… The dollar got bought in the overnight markets to the tune of 4 index points in the BBDXY, which sits this morning at 1.288…. Gold is down in the early trading -$16, while Silver is down – .13-cents… There’s nothing I can here, other than to remain calm and do not sell in panic mode… You’re going to need your metals protection from the inflation that’s coming…. I”m just saying… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to a $69 handle overnight, no rhyme or reason, just GOP…. Adn the 10-year remained offered with a yield of 4.48%….  The Bond boys get it… Inflation is going higher, as too will interest rates have to…. That is unless the Fed Heads have given it to the lawmakers who would love to see inflation riise, to help with the debt…. 

I really don’t believe that the increase in annual inflation last month is going to stop there….  It may take a month or two to get going again, but as long as Trump 2.0 does what he said he was going to do, and that is place huge tariffs on exports to the U.S. then I see inflation increasing again…  Money Supply is off the charts, and it won’t be long before we begin to see it in rising prices….   Remember, what I’ve told you over and over again, that this dance is gonna be a drag, no wait! I’ve told you over and over again that Money Supply equals inflation, period! 

Well, hold on to your hat… Here’s what Kitco.com had to say about Gold & Silver pricing right now.:” Gold and silver have struggled in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election, and with concerns such as the threat of World War III decreasing, one analyst said the bullish case for precious metals is on the back burner until the current market euphoria subsides.”

Chuck again… Remember when I told you that Bloomberg.com and Kitco.com  were two naysayers to price manipulation of the metals…. And here the writer from Kitco.com failed to mention that the short paper trading of the two metals has exasperated the price drop….  They went on to say in the article that Gold could fall to $2,500, before turning around…..    Like I said, “hold onto your hat”

And speaking of Gold…. The other day I briefly mentioned that the Euro Wanna Bes were making plans to go back to a Gold Standard….  But left it there… Here’s the skinny:  Countries outside the eurozone but inside the European Union, i.e., those that one day might join the eurozone—like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, are positioning for a new gold standard.

To prepare for a monetary system based on gold, they are buying gold to equalize their reserves to the eurozone average. This balancing of gold reserves in Europe is a key topic

And now, additional evidence of these plans has come out, this time from Konrad Raczkowski, former Minister of Finance of Poland.

Raczkowski recently argued official gold reserves in Europe must be evenly distributed relative to GDP, which “in the near future … will be the new gold standard.

Chuck again… You go! Euro Wanna Bes!   Show the rest of the world how it’s done and can be a viable system!   

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which last week showed an increase, and I expect this week’s print to do the same…. We also will see the color of the Rocktober PPI… Wholesale inflation…. You may recall me writing a month or so ago about how the PPI was giving us signs that consumer inflation was also rising….    I think yesterday’s STUPID CPI proved that point!

To recap…. The dollar buying goes on, and on, an on…. Yesterday the STUPID CPI saw an increase in the annual rate, and that gave traders the idea that the Fed Heads might find cutting rates a little tricky going forward, and therefore they bought dollars like funnel cakes at a State Fair!   Gold & Silver saw their early morning games wiped out and then some, and Chuck tells us all to remain calm, and to not panic sell…. 

For What It’s Worth….  Well, dummy me, I sent myself this link last week when I saw it, for the FWIW article, but then forgot to pull it the next day, and then forgot about it altogether util yesterday when I was going through unopened emails… This is the great jim Rogers talking about what he sees coming for the world economies, and it can be found here; ‘Things are going to go bad soon’: Jim Rogers issues dire warning as global markets hit record highs — here’s what he likes for protection

Or, here’s your snippet; “The relentless rally in stocks seems unstoppable, with the S&P 500 soaring 21% this year alone and a staggering 87% over the past five years. While these gains have propelled many portfolios into the green, veteran investor Jim Rogers said he is deeply concerned.

“Nearly every stock market in the world has had an all-time high, or near an all-time high,” he told Wealthion in a recent interview, warning that when everyone is making profits, “somebody better look out the window and get worried.”

Earlier this year, reports showed that 14 of the world’s 20 largest stock markets hit record highs. According to Rogers, “just about everybody in the world has joined in now.”

Rogers’ caution is rooted in experience, as he said he understands what follows market euphoria. “I’ve been around long enough, or have read enough to know that when everybody is making a lot of money and piling in, it usually means things are going to go bad soon,” he admitted.

I know from history that the world is going to have problems again … and when the world has problems… it’s nice to have some gold in the closet, or under the bed, have some silver in the closet,” he said. “Because no matter what, many people will turn to gold and silver in times of turmoil.”

Chuck again…  I’ve met Jim Rogers on a couple of occasions in the past, and he has always been a straight shooter, no fluff, no B.S., just the facts, and history on the subject…  And what Jim is talking about above is what I learned to be “A Minsky Moment”….  

Market Prices 11/14/2024: A$ .6463, kiwi .5961, C$ .7131, euro 1.0561, sterling 1.2696, Swiss $1.1227, European Style: rand 18.3450, krone 11.1791, SEK 11.0368, forint 387.18, zloty 4.1220, koruna 24.0514, RUB 99.44, yen 156.09, sing 1.3464, HKD 7.7822, INR 84.41, China 7.2441, peso 20.66, BRL 5.7898, BBDXY 1,288.21, Dollar Index 106.80, Oil $69.02, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $30.24, Platinum $934.00, Palladium $927.00, Copper $4.05, and Gold… $2,559.20

That’s it for today…A nice weekend weather-wise is in store for us here in my little river town, and then next week turn much colder…. UGH!  You know me, I absolutely abhor Cold weather….  But then it is November… The month of gray cloudy days, with bitter chill, and everything looking dead…. Just a friendly neighborhood Spider Man reminder that there will be no Pfennig on Tuesday next week…. I don’t even remember writing everyday Mon-Friday with only holidays stopping me from writing…. That would have been sometime around June 10, 2007….  Oh, and my 3 vacations a year, but back then I had Chris, Mike and Frank to write for me when I was away…. All of us had different styles of writing, and the dear readers would let me know that I was missed…. Well, My beloved Mizzou Tigers play the Gamecocks of S. C.  on Saturday afternoon…. And I’ m very concerned about this one… C’mon Tigers, let’s go!   Tuck Andress takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: It Came Upon A Midnight Clear…..  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, oh please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets bought in the overnight markets last night…
• What is BOA up to? Playing hide-n-seek?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my son, Alex’s wedding is fast approaching, and yesterday I had to go and have my new tux’s legs hemmed… Not that the woman doing the sewing was going to hand them back to me done, I’ll have to go back and pick them up next Tuesday… The jacket fit me perfectly….. Things sure have changed since I last wore a tux, at Daughter Dawn’s Wedding… I doubt I’ll ever have an occasion where I’ll need to wear my tux again, but, just in case….  It’ll be hanging in my closet! Much like the new suit I bought last spring!   The Eddie Higgins Trio greets me this morning with their version of: Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas… 

Well, the manipulation of the markets continued on Monday, even though some areas were closed….  The dollar ended the day unchanged at 1.274, while Gold lost $21, and Silver lost 2-cents…  For more than a month, the short paper traders were taking a pound of flesh from Silver and leaving Gold somewhat alone….  Now, that appears to have changed…  Gold was closed below $2,600, and $2598 yesterday…. Back to where it was around Sept 19th… The last 7 weeks have been glorious to Gold holders who follow the price… But now it’s back to where it was right before the Fed Heads first cut interest rates….  The next move upward should be a doozy, folks… So, before Gold takes off for higher ground again, why not pick some up at these bargain prices? 

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday, but fell through it all day long… Starting at $68.74 it finished the day at $68.00….  So, in essence it was down on the day about a buck….   And the 10-year’s yield? Well the bond boys took the yield up to 4.44% once again yesterday… It will be interesting to see if the Fed Heads step in and try to massage the yield back down again or will they just throw in a towel?

In the overnight markets last night….  well, the dollar buying seems to accelerate when the overnight markets take over the con from the U.S. and last night the BBBDXY gained 6 index points to trade at 1,280 this morning….  This America first line from Trump is really beginning to give me a rash… Not that I don’t want our country to be number 1, it’s the way we’re planning of achieving that aim… With tariffs…   Gold is up $10 to start the day today, and Silver is up 22-cents… The U.S. short paper traders haven’t arrived at their desk yet, to received their instructions for the day…. 

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s saw some buying overnight, with the yield dropping to 4.39% this morning….  I can see the Fed Heads slapping themselves in the forehead, and saying, ” The 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.44%, we ca not allow that to happen!” and they did… 

Well, the Fed Reserve St. Louis reported that: “Today, consumers are pushing their shopping carts in warehouse clubs and superstores in numbers that dwarf other types of retail sales traffic.”   

Chuck again, no wonder the Retail Sales have been streaky, with one month being OK, and the month being disappointing…  I get it, my wife shops a Costco, and when she goes, she buys stuff that will last a long time, and then she doesn’t have to go back for a while….  And she orders her groceries from Walmart… And they deliver them to our front door!  Shopping sure has changed since the days that I first started driving, and to use the car on a Saturday, I had to take my dad to work, and then take my mom to the grocery store, and then after picking up my dad I was free to us the family car…. But those trips to the grocery store were something!  If you can imagine buying food and planning meals for a family of 7…. And me at that age when they thought I had a tapeworm in my stomach because I could eat a horse!  (no horses were eaten or harmed!) 

My first car was a Ford Falcon… And do I have some doozie stories to tell about that car… But I’ll save you from all those, and just say that even though I had a car to drive, I still took my mom to the grocery store on Saturdays! 

OK… Back to the task at hand… Try to find something to talk about that is fresh and new and doesn’t refer to Trump 2.0 or anything related…. Well, here we go…. The euro has been pummeled in the last 3 weeks, and I guess some of it was warranted, as the European Central Bank cut rates…. Apparently proving that what’s good for the goose isn’t good for the gander, as the Fed heads have cut rates twice, with the first one being a hefty 50 Basis Points cut, and the dollar has done nothing but soar since then….  The euro briefly dropped below the 1.06 handle yesterday, and by the looks of the way it’s trading it won’t be long before it has a 1.05 handle next to it….  A lot will be put into the data this week in the Eurozone, as Euro traders will be looking ahead to Thursday’s EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) update. The EU’s third quarter GDP is expected to confirm the preliminary print of 0.4% QoQ, and the annualized figure is forecast to show that Europe grew by an unremarkable 0.9% YoY.

That’s sickly growth folks, and I guess the selling is warranted, but C’mon…. It’s not like traders didn’t know that these sickly numbers were in store when they pushed the euro to 1.12 in September!   So, most of the rot on the euro’s vine has come from the buying of the dollar, as the euro is the offset currency to the dollar…   And we can thank the PPT for most of that dollar buying… But the thing these guys that manipulate the markets try to do is sway the attention of the potential buyer, or short-term holder, and when they succeed like they have this time with the dollar, it’s chilling to me… Ice cold….  like a shot in the back….  I’m just saying… 

All the problems that existed in the U.S. economy and our debt picture that were there before the election, that caused the BBDXY to be like Thelma and Louise and edge close to the cliff, and Gold to hit new all-time highs, are still there…  It’s just that the market manipulators have decided to not allow the dollar to fall and Gold to soar, for now….  But like I said above, when the selling stops, and it will at some point, then we’ll get back to the task at hand!  Did someone sweep the all the problems for the U.S. economy and debt picture under the rug, so the markets can’t see them? No… They still are out there, for all to see, if you care to see them, if you don’t care to see them, then they can’t hurt you!   Yes, the markets are like babies…. 

And a currency like the Norwegian krone, which in normal times is the double recipient of good stuff when the euro is rallying, and Oil is rallying… But in times when the two are in rally mode, the krone gets the snot knocked out of it x 2!  The Mexican peso is also seeing a lot of its gains made last year go down the drain, due to the weakness in the price of Oil… And that the new POTUS plans on placing tariffs on their exports to the U.S. 

And The Chinese renminbi, talk about getting the snot kicked out of it…. The renminbi was rallying before the election, and had reached 7.08, has fallen back to 7.23….  China will be the first country to have Tariffs placed on their exports to the U.S. and they will also carry the highest tariffs….  

I wonder if anyone in the new Administration has associated themselves with the names Smoot & Hawley? It would behoove them if they did…. These two gentlemen introduced tariffs and a year later the world was in a depression… I’m just saying….

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the STUPID CPI for Rocktober…. And that’s it… The star of the show! The STUPID CPI!  I do believe that it will show that inflation bumped a bit higher last month, with the only saving grace being the drop in the price of Oil, thus reducing the price of gas at the pump…. But, I don’t believe it will be enough of a saving grace to help the STUPID CPI, unless of course the BLS decides to massage, roll, and cook the books once again… And since they had to do a mea culpa regarding the way they mis-counted jobs created, I would think they would be on the up an up with everything here on out… Or, at least that’s what I’m hoping! 

To recap… The manipulation of the markets didn’t stop on Monday…. Gold lost $21 on the day, and Chuck thinks that all this selling is about to come to an end, for now…. Then Gold can get back to setting all-time highs!   Chuck talks about grocery shopping in his youth, and puts everyone to sleep… 

For What It’s Worth…. Not much in the way of FWIW article out there this morning, but I did find this article that will make my former colleague and friend, Aaron Stevenson, very happy to read this morning… It’s about the growing problems at Bank of America… And it can be found here: https://justdario.com/2024/11/how-bank-of-america-is-hiding-its-mounting-problems-behind-a-mountain-of-repurchase-agreements/

Or, here’s your snippet: “Finally, the 10-Q of Bank of America has been filed, and it is now time to check how things look in reality beyond the cheerful and “everything is awesome” press release and management call of a few weeks ago when the bank, as expected, beat market expectations (TODAY “EVERYTHING WILL BE AWESOME” FOR BANK OF AMERICA).

As you can understand from the title I chose for this article, Bank of America’s problems are growing, not the opposite. However, I have to admit, at first glance, the numbers looked in better shape until an item usually not that relevant stood out: repurchase agreements.

How do repurchase agreements (aka REPOs) work? In a nutshell, these instruments are generally used by financial institutions to lend or borrow money in the very short term. Usually, the net amounts of money lent and borrowed are fairly the same, and a bank tends to make money using its better credit standing to borrow at a lower rate to then lend at a slightly higher rate to weaker counterparties. The rate is “slightly” higher because REPO operations are always collateralized and often with high-quality government or corporate securities. The typical warning sign of something going wrong with a bank, in particular with its liquidity positions, is when the net amounts borrowed through REPO operations are unusually high.

The amount of liquidity Bank of America borrowed from the REPO market has been DOUBLING in the past 3 quarters to reach a staggering 60 billion USD net balance. How many MSM or Wall Street analysts did you hear flagging this “small” detail? ZERO.

Furthermore, Bank of America isn’t just using REPO agreements to transfer assets off its books and fetch liquidity. As you can read in their own disclosure below, they are doing the same through derivatives using assets that are hard to pledge in the REPO market like non-U.S. Agency MBS.”

Chuck again…  those pesky repo agreements again… Remember in Sept. 2019, when the repo agreements were the vehicle that was used the most by the major banks (TBTF)? And then Covid hit and everyone forgot about the repo agreements…   Hmmm….  You don’t think that Covid was planned as a diversion, do you? Nah… That can’t be, as there were too many lives lost….  

Market Prices 11/13/2024: American Style: A$ .6540, kiwi .5943, C$ .7175, euro 1.0633, Sterling 1.2747, Swiss $1,1345, European Style: rand 17.9781, krone 11.0479, SEK 10.8897, forint 383.39, zloty 4.0785, koruna 23.7882, RUB 98.49, yen 154.62, sing 1.3363, HKD 7.7783, INR 84.38, China 7.2096, peso 20.44, BRL 5.7379, BBDXY 1,280.77, Dollar Index 105.83, Oil $68.48, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $30.95, Platinum $945.00, Palladium $946.00, Copper $4.14, and Gold… $2,609.62

That’s it for today…. Well, remember when I was in S. Florida and was in the hospital for a bleeding ulcer?  They told me to make sure I found a GI Doc back home… So, I found one, and today I will see her… Just a howdy and get to know you appt. I just found out that I will be at the hospital next Tuesday morning for scans…. This will be on my jaw for the surgeon to look at to see if he can debulk this tumor… I know, I get to have all the fun times, eh?   I just never know when to get off the merry-go-round…. HA! I want to thank all of you who sent me a note telling me how long you’ve been reading and you’re not going to leave….  Eddie Higgins Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Hark! The Herald Angels Sing…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar soars, and the currencies & metals get taken to the woodshed!
• A return to the Gold Standard?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! And… I hope you had a 3-day weekend, with it being Veterans Day yesterday… I don’t mean to bore you with the same story I tell each year on Veterans Day, but here it is…. My dad was a veteran of WWII…  He rarely said anything about his time in Germany, but he did tell me that it was hell on earth, and that’s about it…  He also told me about moving beer from town to town in the gasoline tanks of the trucks… YUCK! But, as he said, it was all they could get… My beloved Mizzou Tigers pulled a rabbit out of the hat on Saturday night, and beat Oklahoma…  Lucky, lucky, lucky… Or as my son said, “Cheater’s proof”….  The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: The Christmas Song

Well, the manipulation of the markets continued last week, and through yesterday…. Yes, the FOMC did debase the dollar another 25 Basis Points last week, but that didn’t stop the PPT from buying dollars, and getting everyone else to buy dollars… Last Tuesday, the BBDXY was 1,254… Friday last week the BBDXY was 1,267, and after yesterday, the BBDXY closed at 1,274… Up 7 index points on Monday, when the markets were not fully staffed…  And the short paper traders saw to it that Gold took on to the Mid-section… The engineered takedown took Gold down $64 on the day, and that was after a late afternoon rally, that brought Gold to 1.219… Gold was down $74 at one point yesterday… 

Silver saw the same treatment as Gold… Silver finished last week at $31.28, and then after yesterday’s takedown, Silver saw a loss of 30-cents to close the day at $30.74…   I just shake my head in disgust at what these guys do the values on the asset classes…  But, as I always point out, these are much cheaper buying opportunities…  

The 10-year’s yield got manipulated downward late last week, after going as high as 4.40% last week, it saw nothing but buying, most likely from the Fed Heads to keep yields in check, the 10-year closed yesterday at 4.32%… 

And all the reporters out there will talk about is how the Trump election has scared the market participants as they’re not sure what to expect….  They don’t have the intestinal fortitude to tell it like it is (Aaron Neville) and do some investigative journalism and find out that it was mainly short paper trading in the metals, PPT buying in the dollar, and Fed manipulating yields in bons… 

Last Thursday,  Gold was up $47 and Silver was up 84-cents, and I thought to myself… Well, they are back! But then on Friday, all hell broke loose, and those gains were wiped out yesterday… 

And the price of Oil fell out of bed yesterday, losing $3 to trade at the end of the day with a $67 handle…  

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar buying continued throughout the night, with the BBDXY gaining 2 more index points to start our day today at 1,276…  Gold is trying to recover from the engineered takedown yesterday, but is failing and is down $9 to start the day today, while Silver is down one penny to start the day today… The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $68 this morning, and the 10-year’s yield is back to rising this morning as it trades with a 4.39% yield… 

I don’t know when this assault on the metals will end, but the short Gold paper Traders do, I’m sure they have a point where they will call of the dogs, and sit back and watch as short time traders all panic and sell which is their number 2 goal… The first goal of course is to make Bou coup bucks, which they have certainly done this time… 

Well, did you hear about the massive new monetary metals depository in Eagle, Idaho, said to be the largest such vault in the United States west of New York, a vault even larger than the U.S. gold repository at Fort Knox, Kentucky.?  Well, now you have!   So, going forward, you’ll be able to have the depository hold your Metals in safety, and able to have them delivered to you when you are ready for them…   This is competition for the Perth Mint, and other vaults around the world… 

That public service announcement has been brought to by Battle Bank…  to get on their list, simply go to their website at: www.battlebank.com

So, the dollar has been debased 75 Basis Points since this summer… And the dollar continues to gain?  What on earth is happening here? Well, There’s stranger things in life that have happened, but I can’t think of them right now…  Maybe it’ll be delayed reaction?  Any way… This has got to be recorded for history folks… 

You know, my readership has gone down tremendously since I TIAA Bank showed me the door in 2016… And I don’t know why… I wish when readers left, they sent me a note telling me why….   If I continue to lose readers like I have these past 8 years, in 5 years, I’ll only be writing to friends (maybe), family (maybe), and myself…  I’m not whining here, just make a point about letting me know, when you decide to leave me… Please… 

Remember Judy Shelton? Ms. Shelton was the Gold Bug that was nominated to be a Fed Head, but because she advocated for a return to the Gold Standard, she was not approved, and went back to being a strong advocate for the Gold Standard, on her own… Over at www.shiffgold.com they ran an article that saw July Shelton returning to the forefront… She recently said, ” that a return to sound money requires going back to gold.”  

And then there was this in the Financial Times: “Gold, it seems, just can’t be ignored any more. The prospect of falling US interest rates, a decline in the dollar and worries about America’s debt sustainability should lead to more institutional and retail money flocking into gold… There is even talk that the long-mooted new currency set up by the expanded Brics countries will be backed by a number of assets, including gold. A century on from the demise of the [Classical] Gold Standard, which collapsed in the interwar years amid a breakdown in central bank cooperation over how to manage the metal, gold is quietly becoming a more important feature of our financial system rather than an outmoded 20th-century relic.”

Chuck again… Seems to me that this rhetoric about a return to the Gold Standard is getting more airtime this time around than the previous times…  We heard that the BRICS would introduce a common currency that will be backed by something, most likely Gold… And there are more stories about a return to the Gold Standard than you can shake a stick at…  In fact, there was one this past weekend about how the Euro Wanna Bes… Have become the Gold Standard Wanna Bes….  I’m just saying 

OK… Well, I’m lost without news articles about the countries that I follow, the economies, and their dolt Central Banks… So, with that in mind, I’ll head to the Big Finish and call it a day… But one thing I do see without any words written about is the Petrol Currencies getting whacked even more… Currencies like the pound sterling, real, peso, krone, etc. are all seeing extra selling…  And the one currency that continues to get whacked because of the Trump victory is the Chinese renminbi…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have anything for us today that’s real economic data… And tomorrow we will be subjected to the STUPID CPI for last month…. You already know how I hold the STUPID CPI in such high regard (NOT!) and i’ll  bet a shiny quarter that even the STUPID CPI will show an increase in inflation last moth… 

To recap… After an impressive recovery for Gold & Silver last Thursday, it’s been all downhill from there… And yesterday, the short paper traders did one of their engineered takedowns, Chuck is so disgusted with these guys… 

The PPT has stepped in to buy dollars alongside with the dollar bugs, to send the dollar soaring, in the face of a 75 Basis Points debasing that has taken place since summer….   And there’s a new metals depository in Idaho… Sounds cool… 

For What It’s Worth….  Well, this should sound very familiar to you dear reader, as this is Brian Lundien writing for Money Metals, saying the same things I kept saying last week, but just like when you talk to your kids, they always listen more to someone else, I thought this would be good…. And it can be found here: The Metals Get Mauled (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “A clear-cut win by Trump negates the risk of political turmoil and sends gold and silver plunging.

But this bull market was never built on geopolitical risk — it’s a decades-long trend of ever-easier money and ever-greater debt that has sent gold to record heights.

The markets will soon realize that the current situation is irreversible and unsolvable by any administration… and the metals bull market will resume in force.

Over the past six months, in interviews and conversations with friends and media in Canada and elsewhere in the world, I was consistently asked how the U.S. presidential election would affect gold.

My answer was always the same: Not a whit.

I would explain that because the debt situation in the U.S. had gotten so completely out of hand…and because neither party was inclined or even able to solve it at this point…far higher gold prices would result no matter who was elected.

Obviously, I should have cautioned that a clear-cut win by Trump would evaporate any perceived geopolitical risk being factored into the gold price by some speculators and, therefore, result in a short-term sell-off.

That’s exactly what’s happened. As I wrote this on Wednesday, gold was off $77 (2.8%), and silver was leveraging the move to the downside with a drop of $1.48 (4.5%).

A move of this magnitude is obviously being driven by traders shorting the metals with wild abandon. I sincerely doubt that much of the big money that’s moved into gold over the past year was motivated by concerns over this election.

Thus, this short-term trade seems destined to reverse soon.

And, if you’ve read anything I’ve been writing for the last few years, you will not be surprised to learn that I view this as a long-term opportunity.

It’s a mixed bag in the post-election markets. With the Dow jumping over 3% and the Dollar Index soaring, investors are obviously considering that lower taxes and looser regulation will unleash the U.S. economy.

But with Treasury yields also rising strongly, they also seem to recognize that higher tariffs will be inflationary.”

Chuck again… See? I told you he was saying the same things I said last week about the plunge in metals prices, and the soaring of the dollar….  So… It’s back to the task at hand… 

Market Prices 11/12/2024: American Style: A$ .6580, kiwi .5948, C$ 7231, euro 1.0622, sterling 1.2810, Swiss $1.1347, European Style: rand 18.0809, krone 11.0519, SEK 10.8662, forint 388.42, zloty 4.0979, koruna 23.6633, RUB 98.08, yen 154.24, sing 1.3380, HKD 7.7785, INR 84.39, China 7.2301, peso 20.41, BRL 5.7831, BBDXY 1,276, Dollar Index 105.83, Oil $68.79, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $30.73, Platinum $955.00, Palladium $964.00 Copper $4.17, and Gold… $2,610.43

That’s it for Today…  My visit to my oncologist was fine, my blood level is still a little low, but has recovered nicely, albeit slowly, quite a bit from my blood loss in July…  That seems like ages ago to me now….  I’m set to revisit MDAnderson next month on 12/19… That’s as soon as they could get me in… I told them what happens if I die before then?   They didn’t respond… I’m very concerned about my beloved Mizzou Tigers’ game this coming Saturday in S. Carolina…  Go Tigers! My Tigers have an outside chance of reaching 10-wins this year… But it will take a victory on the road this week to give them a good chance….   The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of (my favorite Christmas song): The Christmas Waltz…   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• An ugly day for the currencies & metals comes to an end…
• The BOE cuts rates!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my trip to the heart & Vascular Center yesterday, brought me nothing new, and the hospital told me to go home, and not come back! We’ve decided to postpone the heart surgery procedure they suggested I do a month ago, and I’m good with that decision! The doctor was pleasantly pleased at my progress and my weight loss… So, for once in a blue moon, i walked away feeling good about the direction I was heading….   Wild Cherry greets me this morning with their song: Play That Funky Music…

Now, that’s a seat dancing song!  Wild Cherry was a one-hit wonder…  But that one-hit was a Big One! 

Well, the ugliness in the markets yesterday didn’t stop all day… The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Gold was sold like Tickle Me Elmos a few years ago….  At the end of the day, the BBDXY had gained 13 index points, Gold had lost $72, and Silver had lost $1.37,  and all that we had worked for was laid out for us all to see the mess….  This was outrageous, if you ask me….  I had a dear reader write to me and ask me what was going on, and I replied that “I believe this is profit taking by the Big Boys, you know, like hedge funds, etc. with some short paper trades thrown in, just to remind us that they are still there”….  

These Big Boy units are different than we are, folks… They are what I call “short-term buyers”, and Gold was never a part of their “core holding”, as if they ever have a “core holding”….  So… If I’m correct here, the profit taking will end sometime soon, and we’ll pull up our bootstraps and get back to work in selling dollars and buying currencies and metals…. 

The nearly $36 Trillion debt is still out there folks… And the U.S.’s ability to service that debt is still in question, without turning on the printing press again….  And to remind us of all that is one of my favorite analysts in the world… Stephanie Pomboy, who was being interviewed by Kitco.com and had this to say: 

Pomboy also pointed to vulnerabilities in the banking sector, noting that banks are sitting on “500 billion dollars on unrealized losses. That’s not going anywhere. It hasn’t been cured.”

She believes these losses have not been adequately addressed and could pose a significant risk to the financial system.

“This debt and deficit are the existential threat to our economy and the dollar hegemony,” she said. “This is a doom loop – with higher interest rates mushrooming out our deficits, essentially bringing forward the day of reckoning.”

Chuck again…  So, if you battened down the hatches yesterday and didn’t panic, I think you”ll end up very happy you did, because this will all come back to meet the problems just like it did previously… 

The price Of Oil bumped higher yesterday, after its initial onslaught to $69, and recovered to end the day trading with a $71 handle… And the 10-year’s yield leapt higher, to 4.44%….   The 4.50% I called for before Christmas, doesn’t look to far-fetched now does it?

In the overnight markets, the selling stopped in the currencies and metals…  The BBDXY has given back 5 index points this morning, and Gold is up $13 to start the day…  I really didn’t think all the selling was going to stop until the week came to an end, but it does appear that it has stopped now….   Silver is up 12-cents this morning, and the currencies were taken of their life support mechanisms…. 

The price of Oil slipped back to a $70 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield saw some buyers to bring the yield down to 4.41% to start our day today….

Well, the Bank of England (BOE ) finally bit the bullet and cut their interest rate 25 Basis Points this morning…  The BOE had resisted the temptation to cut rates for some time, but finally succumbed to the pressures that were mounting on them by the markets…  This bodes well, for my call that the FOMC will cut rates today, thus keeping it a close-knit group…. 

I mentioned yesterday that the two countries, Japan and China, had seen the worst of the selling as their countries are front and center in the raising of tariffs on their exports…   And that will cause the prices of everything we buy from these two countries rise… So, more price pressures are coming folks…  Get ready for them because this should come as no surprise…  Our Trade Deficit should move upward again, and become a real problem, to go along with the current Debt…  

And money supply? Well, I see this as increasing again, and causing more inflation, but don’t let me spoil your breakfast this morning, although, just looking at what happened yesterday would spoil anyone’s meal! 

So, the opportunity to buy at cheaper levels is still prevalent in the currencies and metals this morning, but do not procrastinate!  If this all goes the way I see it going, these cheaper levels won’t be around too long… 

There aren’t too many articles out there this morning that talk about the economies, etc. It’s all about how the markets will react to Trump 2.0….  I say, “how do they know”  So, any way, I’ll just go to the Big Finish and get this out the door…

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims this morning… Look for the layoffs from Boeing to affect this data….  And then this afternoon, after all the board games have been put away, the Fed Heads and their FOMC will adjourn the meeting and hold a press conference to tell us what they did, or didn’t do…  As I said above, I believe the FOMC will cut rates 25 Basis Points (1/4%) and will not dare to cut rate 50 Basis Points like they did the last meeting…  

To recap… It was a very ugly day yesterday for the currencies & Metals…  But the sky appears to be clearing…. Reminds me of the great Johnny Nash song, about how “I can see clearly now, I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind” Chuck reminds us that all the problems that existed before the election are still there, and need to be addressed…  And Steph Pomboy visits the Pfennig today! 

For What It’s Worth…  This is an article on Zerohedge.com that talks about how the Social Security Admin. Finally came out with their report on labor for 2023 and the finding is awful and it can be found here: Goodbye Middle Class: Half Of All American Workers Make Less Than $43,222.81 A Year | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: he Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering.  

According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81.  In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81.

 That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.  More people are being squeezed out of the middle class with each passing day, but most Americans don’t even realize that this is happening because the media isn’t really talking about it.

Poverty, homelessness and hunger are all growing all around us, and if we stay on the path that we are on the middle class will continue to be systematically eviscerated.

Once upon a time, the vast majority of the country could afford to live a middle class lifestyle.

But now those days are long gone.

A study that was recently released found that it now takes more than $100,000 a year for a typical U.S. household to live “the American Dream” in all 50 states, and in 29 U.S. states it takes more than $150,000 a year…

A household would have to spend more than $150,000 a year to live the dream in 29 of the 50 states, according to an analysis published in April by the personal finance site GOBankingRates.

According to the report, the optimal American lifestyle would cost $137,842 a year in Ohio, $147,535 in Texas, $159,932 in Florida, $194,067 in New York and $245,723 in California.

The state that has the lowest cost of living is Mississippi.

Living the American Dream only costs $109,516 a year in that state.

Needless to say, someone earning $43,222.81 a year is not going to be able to live the American Dream anywhere in the nation.”

Chuck again…  I was flabbergasted to see how low that number was…  We, as a country, need to get the middle class back to working good jobs again, The middle class is the engine of the economy, and needs to be on terra firma!

Market Prices 11/7/2024: American Style: A$ .6642, kiwi .5997, C$ .7197, euro 1.0777, sterling 1.2958, Swiss $1.1429, European Style: rand 17.5898, krone 10.9179, SEK 10.7739, forint 375.79, zloty 4.0138, koruna 23.4585, RUB 97.85, yen 153.78, sing 1.3252, HKD 7.7723, INR 84.37, China 7.1575, peso 19.93, BRL 5.6956, BBDXY 1,264, Dollar Index 104.69, Oil $70.91, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $31.35, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,034.00, Copper $4.35, and Gold… $2,673.96

That’s it for today…  Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers get back on the field, Saturday with a game against their old Big12, Big8, rival, Oklahoma…. OU has joined the SEC now, so the Tigers will play them more often again… With no baseball on TV at night, I’m lost!  But it is what it is, so I carry on….  There will be NO Pfennig on Monday, as I will be seeing my oncologist bright and early… The next time we’ll talk is on Tuesday next week…. Well, maybe now, all those political texts and phone calls will stop… And I will be able to watch college football on Saturday without someone calling someone a liar, etc.   YAHOO!  Well, it’s almost time to turn on Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station, so from here on out I’ll be talking about the tunes being played there….  But for today, Ducette takes us to the finish line with his song: Mama Let Him Play….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get whacked overnight on the Trump 2.0 victory
• yen and renminbi get the worse of the selling…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Well, the election/ voting is over and now we wait for official results, and then the parties reaction to them… It does appear that we’ll have Trump 2.0..  I really don’t want to deal with all of that, so I’ll just say NO! I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of talking about who won what…. I’ll let others do that, and I’ll learn from their mistakes, for I could never live long enough to make them all myself! The Killers greet me this morning with their hit song: Somebody Told Me…. 

Somehow, someway, someone, decided yesterday, to save the dollar from falling off the cliff… That someone had to be the PPT, because of the way the dollar reacted, with the BBDXY gaining 6 index points on the day… A large move upward without economic data to boost it, without one Presidential nominee taking hold early, without any Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit. And don’t forget that the FOMC begins their 2-day meeting to discuss interest rates, today…  I can hear the getting the board games out to pass the time…. Monopoly, anyone? 

I truly expect the FOMC to cut rates now… I was on the fence about this rate move yesterday, but after a day of thinking about this, to come to this conclusion….  Sop, that would normally be bad for the dollar, and that’s another reason for the PPT to come in and boost up the dollar….  They saw the FOMC cutting rates, and the dollar getting sold, and the PPT wanted to give the dollar a buffer… 

Gold found its way through the gauntlet of short paper traders yesterday, and ended up gaining $7 on the day to close at $2,743.50… Talk about working its way through the gauntlet of short paper traders, Silver ended the day up 15-cents, but a mile away from its intraday high… Tsk, Tsk…  Those darn short paper traders, really know how to ruin one’s day, eh? 

Well, Oil and bonds don’t seem to be keen to the Trump 2.0 scenario… The price of Oil was sold lower by $1.50 to a $70 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.43%….  I read where the writer thought that bonds would be subject to tons of supply, coming up and that’s why the yields are rising again, in the face of FOMC rate cuts… 

In the overnight markets last night… OMG! This is really outrageous!  Traders are trading with their emotions this morning… The overnight traders bought dollars and bought dollar, and bought dollars until the BBDXY was up 12 index points, and the euro was looking sickly again…  But, that’s not all… Gold is getting sold in the early trading and is down $65 to start our day, and Silver is down $1.20….  There ae some short paper trades being made in this, but for the most part this is trader sentiment about how the next 4 years will go…. 

I’m still concerned that there will be problems with the transfer of power here… There have been quite a few quotes by Democrats that they will not allow Trump to set one foot in the White House…  And for that reason alone, I’m surprised that Gold is getting whacked… Let’s hope that’s all ill wind blowing and not real game plans….

Think about this… What has Trump preached during his campaign?  That interest rates should be lower…  And that tariffs of imports will be his number one revenue source…  Well, lower interest rates should be manna from heaven for Gold, and higher costs for goods here will push the Trade Deficit to new heights and cause tons of money supply to be on tap, which will push prices higher in inflation, and that should be manna from heaven for Gold… So… Why the negative reaction, has befuddled me, this morning…  

Speaking of tariffs… The two countries that are on the list of countries that will see the highest tariffs, saw their currencies get whacked Big Time… The Japanese yen and Chinese renminbi, saw their respective currencies get sold down the river last night, and I doubt the selling will stop there… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty this morning… There’s nothing there, zip, zero, nil, a big Goose Egg…  And there’s really not much the rest of the week, and that bothers me…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The BIG Unknow became known last night, as it appears that Trump won the election… I know, it’s not official yet, but Trump 2.0 appears to be on the horizon, as long as he is not contested by the opposing party… This news has traders going bananas… Gold is down $65 this morning, and Silver is down $1.20… What gives?  Well, Chuck does his best to explain why this doesn’t make any sense this morning… 

For What It’s Worth… This FWIW article is a little different from what I usually look for, but  I liked it so there’s that! This is an article about how the shutting down of our Central Bank has been done by a president before, and how it was done, gives us clues about how to go about dismantling the Fed… And it can be found here: How Andrew Jackson Freed America From Central Bank Control—and Why It Matters Now (internationalman.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:”But it happened once—in 1835—thanks to President Andrew Jackson. He was the first and only president to pay off the national debt completely.

One biographer says the former president viewed debt as a “moral failing,” a sort of “black magic.

When he became president, Jackson was determined to rid the U.S. of its national debt. After all, debt enslaves you to your creditors.

Jackson knew that being debt-free was essential to independence. This outlook resonated with many Americans back then.

With that in mind, Jackson attacked the institutions and powerful people who promoted and enabled the federal debt. This included the banking elites and the Second Bank of the United States, the country’s central bank at the time and precursor to today’s insidious Federal Reserve system.

While campaigning against the evils of national debt and central banking, Jackson miraculously survived an assassination attempt when an assassin’s two pistols both misfired. Shadowy interests tied to the central bank were almost certainly behind the effort.”

Chuck again…  As usual that was just a snippet, if you want to read more then click the link above… Spoiler alert, you’ll have to sign up for the newsletter to read it all… UGH!

Market Prices 11/6/2024: American Style: A$.6568, kiwi .5950, C$ .7181, euro 1.0709, sterling 1.2862, Swiss $1.1462, European Style: rand 17.7151, krone 11.1164, SEK 10.8918, forint 382.94, zloty 4.0617, koruna 23.6633, RUB 98.08, yen 154.24, sing 1.3348, HKD 7.7763, INR 84.28, China 7.1746, peso 20.55, BRL 5.7824, BBDXY 1,274., Dollar Index 105.28, Oil $70.02, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $31.44, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $1,038, Copper $4.27, and Gold… $2,678.13

That’s it for today…  Well, how long was your line at the polls? I had very nice people around me in line, and they kept pointing out chairs that were ahead and telling me to go sit and they would allow me back in line when they got there…  My hip thanked them over and over again! Note to self… Next election, wait until after 8:30 am when everyone is back at work after voting! And I fell asleep much earlier in the evening that usual, so I didn’t have to watch the election results… I recall the last election going to bed thinking that candidate A had won, only to find out the next morning that wasn’t the case… So, no surprises this year, and that’s much better!  I see a heart specialist this afternoon… I wonder what she has up her sleeve?  Nothing I hope, much like Bullwinkle would find! HA! Doucette takes us to the finish line today with his song: Mama Let Him Play….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The Big Unknowns begin to weigh heavily on the markets…
• Gold & Silver try to be good today….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I’m back from performing my civic duty, which quite frankly has become a burden to me… But that’s a discussion for another day… It’s akin to picking which poison you want to suffer from…. But, I carry on… (Kansas) I couldn’t remain awake to the end of the football game last night… I see here this morning that the Chiefs won. in overtime…  Thin Lizzy greets me this morning with their song: The Boys Are Back In Town… 

Well, there were quite a few people that had the same thought as me, regarding when to go vote this morning… And it was raining cats and dogs! But that didn’t stop them all…  But I persevered, and got my “I Voted” sticker for my efforts…  Well, yesterday, the dollar was getting osld down the river in the early morning, but as the day went on, it came back a bit, and the BBDXY ended down 5 index points on the day, instead of the 7 it was down earlier… The currencies all look better, but remain in their respective sick beds… The best performing currency the last two days is the Chinese renminbi… Now that sounds strange, doesn’t it?  The euro is back to knocking on the door to 1.09… So, that’s a close second place… 

Gold closed trading yesterday only up $2 on the day, at $2,737.60, and Silver closed down 49-cents at $32.32… As usual the short paper traders do more damage to Silver than to Gold, but there’s no prize for that… The Price of Oil remained with a $71 handle in trading yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.30% throughout the day… 

I found this on Kitco.com this morning and thought I would share it with you: ” Gold has been the shining star in the commodity space, as prices have rallied roughly 33% so far this year, trading near recent record highs of $2,800 an ounce. However, analysts at the World Bank suggest that silver is the precious metal to watch in 2025.

The World Bank recently released its updated commodity market forecast. While gold is expected to continue outperforming the broader sector, the latest projections show analysts anticipate weaker demand next year through 2026,”

So, add Kitco.com to the list of outfits and people that are calling for Silver to be the metal to watch in 2025…  And unless Silver gets a wild hair, it’s not going to make it to $50 before year end, as one pundit that I quoted a week or so ago, forecast… 

In the overnight markets last night… We crept ever so closer to the Unknown last night, and the dollar didn’t fare too well, as the BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight… The euro creeps so close to the 1.09 figure that it could spit in the 1.09’s back yard!  That’s an old country saying, that I’ve always enjoyed, so if you don’t like it, fuhgeddaboudit! The metals are trying to be good today, with Gold up $8 to start the day, and Silver gaining back the 39-cents it lost yesterday…  The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to 4.32%…  

Well, once again this morning, the articles are all about the election or what someone thinks will happen if X wins or Y wins…  I did find this on Bloomberg.com that explains yesterday’s trading a bit: “In recent weeks, investors have been betting on a Trump win, positioning for his low-tax and high-tariff policies to boost both growth and inflation. Those bets helped push the dollar gauge to a four-month high last week and sent yields on 30-year Treasuries to their highest since July, creating a steeper yield curve.”

This is going to be a real knock-down, drag-out event, the election… So, hold onto your hats, and prepare for some social uprisings… With folks not happy about what they will feel is a rigged victory…  I hope to heck that this all goes peacefully…  But given what I’ve read about, there’ little chance that will happen. So like I said, hold onto your hats, this will be a wild ride…

The poor stock jockeys are shaking in their pants or pant suits this morning…  And well they should be… This Big Unknown is weighing heavily on the economy, stocks, and is waiting to unleash a ball of hell at the dollar should the outcome of the election become contested….   

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Rocktober Factory Orders, and they printed negative again, this time at a negative -0.5%… Again, another fly in the administration’s claim that the economy is booming…   Today’s Cupboard has some 3^rd tier economic reports, and tomorrow’s Cupboard is empty, so Factory Orders is all we get until Thursday… 

To recap… The dollar was getting sold down the river yesterday morning, but in the U.S. trading it came back just a tad, but still down on the day… Gold & Silver were mixed with Gold up and Silver down… UGH!  short paper traders just won’t let Silver alone…  And traders are reversing their Trump Trades, according to Bloomberg, as the traders don’t fell as confident in a Trump victory…  

For What it’s Worth…  Well, all the talk by the POTUS and Janet Yellen (Treasury Sec.) that the economy is booming… This article disputes that and is full of facts that I believe, far more than the talking heads, and it can be found here: Retail Stores Closing at a Pace Not Seen Since Pandemic (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “While President Biden and talking heads in mainstream media talk about the amazing robust economy, retail stores are closing at a frenetic pace.

According to Coresight Research, 6,189 stores have already closed in 2024. That puts retail store closures at the fastest pace since 2020, when government shutdowns decimated the retail sector.

Some of the major chains shuttering stores include Walgreens (259 stores), Family Dollar (677 stores), Big Lots (360 stores), and LL Flooring (all stores).

Conn’s HomePlus, Rue21, and Express have also announced closures.

According to S&P Global, more than 80 companies that sell discretionary goods had filed for bankruptcy through September. That represents a 27 percent increase from 2023.

The restaurant sector is also feeling the pain. Red Lobster, Roti, Tijuana Flats, and Buca di Beppo have all filed for bankruptcy this year, closing hundreds of restaurants. Denny’s recently announced plans to shutter 150 restaurants.”

Chuck Again, but I know it’s too late baby, now it’s too late (Carol King) but do we as a country want to continue with the failed economics that have led to these closings? I’m just saying…. 

Market Prices 11/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6627, kiwi .5998, C$ .7205, euro 1.0896, sterling 1.2989, Swiss $1.1590, European Style: rand 17.4389, krone 10.9758, SEK 10.7089, forint 375.39, zloty 3.9955, koruna 23.2478, RUB 97.90, yen 152.07, sing 1.3169, HKD 7.7712, INR 84.11, China 7.1077, peso 20.11, BRL 5.7863, BBDXY 1,256, Dollar Index 103.73, Oil $71.89, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $32.81, Platinum $1,002.00, Palladium $1,191.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,745.77   

That’s it for today… Get out and vote, if you want to complain about all this in the future…  Todays is my daughter, Rachel’s birthday! Happy Birthday, Sunshine!  Rachel is one of those people that have a and celebrate a birthday month!  I hope your day is grand, Rachel!   As long-time readers know, I don’t like using the words “in-law”… So, Rachel is my daughter, period! It was a rainy day yesterday, and that reminded me of a restaurant/ bar downtown years ago that would have specials on rainy days and Mondays… The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: I Wish It Would Rain… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and election day, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butlee

• Currencies & Metals get whacked on Thursday last week…
• But rally in the overnight markets last night….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I had a great Halloween, celebrated with neighbors around a fire pit and listening to lame jokes from the Trick-or-treaters… Friday, we got fried fish from the legion hall, and half the kids were here… I lost another tooth, to the tumor that keeps spreading in my mouth… I may have a work around for that, soon, more later… The Cornelious Brothers and Sister Rose greet me this morning with their song: Too Late To Turn Back Now… 

Well, it was an awful two days to end the week last, for Gold & Silver…  And the dollar, which was falling by bits and pieces until Friday, saw the BBDXY gain 6 index points on Friday… The Big News from Friday, was the jobs jamboree…  In a report that was already expected to be down, from last month, the BLS reported that there were only 12,000 jobs created in Rocktober…  Yes, there was the Hurricane, that disrupted the creation of jobs, but there was also the labor impasse at Boeing…  The report was supposed to be around 110,000 down from 233,000 the previous month, so somewhere in the calcs, they lost 100,000 jobs that were supposed to be created in Rocktober… 

I don’t know what this does to the proposed rate cut by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel….  it could exacerbate it, or it could get them to want to wait until they get a clear picture of labor… (Not that they can ever really get one of those given the BLS trumped up labor reports) 

The dollar bugs were all over the report thinking that the Fed Heads will want a clearer picture of the labor market, and therefore postpone the rate cut… I guess we’ll all find out later this week when the Fed Heads get together for a two-day meeting after the election… 

Gold & Silver got whacked by a Mack Truck of short paper trading on Thursday last week… Gold lost $43, and Silver lost $1.14… It was an ugly day, for these two metals… And one that I quite frankly had started to believe was in the past… But NOOOOOOOO!  Gold then followed up Thursday’s whacking by losing $7.90, and closing the week at $2,735.40, and Silver lost 20-cents on Friday to end the week at $32.41… 

I could go on util I was blue in the face talking about the how the short paper traders brought Gold & Silver to their knees on Thursday, but I won’t… I’ll just move along, because there’s nothing, I can do about it, and besides I don’t need to be getting my Blood Pressure spiking! 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle to end the week, and the 10-year’s yield continued to rise, ending the week at 4.39%… Remember what I said about the 10-year’s yield rising to 4.50%…. On its way! 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, proving once again that Friday’s lunge in the dollar was nothing more than PPT interference, as the dollar plunged again in the overnight markets… The BBDXY is down over 7 index points this morning, as the toss-up election is weighing heavily on the dollar…. Why? Because, as I’ve told you for years now, Traders do not like unknowns… And tomorrow’s election is a BIG UNKNOWN!  Gold recovered a bit overnight gaining $7 in the early trading. Silver has gained 39-cents to start the day… So, these buyers don’t care about the unknown, they just know that whoever wins will continue the spending spree, and ramp up inflation… 

On Bloomberg.com they just can’t seem to get the story right regarding why Gold got whacked last Thursday… They seem to think that it was traders taking profits, after Gold hit a new all-time high…  $43 dollars of profit taking? C”Mon give me a break! This outfit, and Kitco.com just won’t got down the dark side road, that points out manipulation…  But i do! So, you can thank me later for that! HA! 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to trade this morning with a $71 handle… Seems our friends (NOT!) at OPEC announced that their output/ production hikes will not take place for the time being…  And then Iran began to talk about revenge VS Isarel, and that really got Oil moving higher…  And the Fed must have been in the bond market this morning, because the 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.30% overnight…  The Fed Heads had to be shocked and awed when they saw the 10-year’s yield rise to 4.39% last Friday…. I’m just saying… 

I don’t have any other articles to share with you this morning, as all the news is about the election tomorrow, and what to expect… Which I find to be silly, since no one really knows that to expect…  So, we’ll just head to the Big Finish and go from there today…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has Rocktober Factory Orders this morning, and then it goes dark until the 7th, when the two-day FOMC meeting adjourns…  I’m still on the fence about the FOMC meeting this week… On one side I see the FOMC cutting rates again, and on the other side, I see the FOMC waiting for a clearer picture of the labor market…   

To recap… The dollar got extra help to end the week last week… The PPT must have been in to prep the dollar ahead of countdown time for the U.S. election that has many unknowns, and has the dollar running for cover this morning…  Gold & Sliver got whacked last Thursday, but are back on the rally tracks this morning…  The FWIW article goes through the chances of a heated/ contested transfer of power and that’s a BIG UNKOWN! Welcome to November, my most disliked month… UGH!

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this dabbles a bit in the political ring, but in the end, it’s about how all the problems could spell disaster for the dollar, and it can be found here: Election-Violence Risk Threatens US Dollar Dominance – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “he scenario of another contested presidential race riven by violence looms as an unpriced risk for investors who have long counted on US institutional integrity as a foundation for the nation’s economic strength.

Owning the world’s dominant currency has helped hold down US borrowing costs and the prices of commodities from oil to iron, along with conferring the geopolitical power of cutting American rivals out of the global financial system. Underpinning the dollar’s dominance, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and their predecessors: the rule of law and institutions that transcend individual politicians.

Here’s Why Dollar Dominance Is In Question

In the countdown to US election day, one fear that’s looming for some investors is a degradation of that respect. It comes amid doubts about former President Donald Trump’s willingness to concede should he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump not only continues to insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him, he recently claimed that the 2021 transition was “love and peace” despite the historic storming of the US Capitol by his supporters. The insurrection resulted in death and destruction in the American legislature’s main building.

The biggest fear this time around: a fundamental reappraisal by global investors of confidence in US institutions. That’s in the context of the US being the largest net debtor in the world, a reflection of the trillions of dollars foreign governments, funds and individuals have plowed into the $28 trillion US Treasuries market and $61 trillion stock market, along with corporate bonds and other securities.

“If there’s a real question about the effective peaceful transfer of power, it could be very unsettling — not just for our investors but the business and economic activity here,” former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on a Zoom call organized by the Business & Democracy Initiative Wednesday. “The strength of the dollar does depend on respect for our economy, for rule of law, and very importantly” on the Fed retaining its independence, he said.”

Chuck again.. And I wish, and hope and pray that we have a peaceful transfer of power all the way through to the certification on Jan 6…  James Rickards doesn’t think it will work out peacefully… And fears of a contested election, has the dollar on the skids this morning…  And as far as Gold Goes this morning, there’s an old saying the markets that is: “Buy the rumor, sell the fact”… And I think this is what has Gold on the rally tracks this morning… 

Market Prices 11/4/ 2024: American Style: .6608, kiwi .5990, C$ .7190, euro 1.0908, sterling 1.2983, Swiss $1.1582, European Style: rand 17.5313, krone 10.9596, SEK 10.6777, forint 374.08, zloty 3.925, koruna 98.72, RUB 98.72, BBDXY 1,256.41, Dollar Index 103.69, Oil $71.44, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $32.80, Platinum $1.001.00, Palladium $1.104.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $2,756.42

That’s it for today… Now tomorrow… IF there is a Pfennig, it will be later than usual, as I will be at the Polls exercising my civic duty when the Polls open tomorrow morning… If I get in there and out in reasonable time, then I will get back here to write… If there are delays, then I’ll say “punt”…  What was the best lame joke you heard last Thursday?  I heard this one.. Where do you get dragon milk?   From a 3-legged cow!   OK, so that was the best one I heard, it was a weak year for wit…  The weather has been nice, chilly in the morning and night, and nice during the day… Well, it’s almost a month away… Alex and Grace’s wedding…  It’ll be on Pearl Harbor Day… I need for my health to remain strong for that day… Gerry & The Pacemakers take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Ferry Across The Mersey…  Funny, I mentioned Alex this morning, and that’s the song that I used to sing to him to get him to fall asleep when he was a toddler….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar finally gets sold…
• Gold rallies while Silver gets whacked…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  I’m ready, and willing, and able to do some Tub Thumpin’ today!  I was dismissed from seeing a nurse each week yesterday… My PT guy was impressed at how I ran through the exercises he gave me without a break… And I spent 1 hour on the phone with MDAnderson setting up my account all over again… The bad news was that they couldn’t see me until 12/19…. UGH!  Oh, well, it is what it is… I’m just hoping that a surgeon that I saw on Monday this week, and is willing to cut some of the bulk of the tumor out of my mouth, can work me in soon…  First, though, I have to get a new CT scan of my jaw… Los Bravos greet me this morning with their great 60’s song: Black is Black…. 

Well, yesterday I told you that the BBDXY had only gained 2 index points so far this week…. And yesterday, those 2 index points were given back… So, here we are 4 days into the week, and the BBDXY was still sitting at 1,261 at the close yesterday….  It appears to me that a consolidation is taking place…. Yes, no traders want to take any positions ahead of the elections, but at the same time, the dollar hasn’t moved…   I’m just saying, because…. I told you last week that the dollar was overbought… 

Gold gained $12 yesterday, but Silver was subjected to short paper trading that brought Silver down by 65-cents…  Gold closed yesterday at $2,788.00, and Silver at $33.86… It does seem that the short paper traders have drawn a line in the sand at $34.50… Silver has reached that level a few times in recent trading, and each time, it gets taken to the woodshed…. That can’t go on forever folks… So, back up the truck for the Silver dock now… I’m just saying….

The price of oil bumped higher two days in a row, and closed yesterday trading with a 569 handle…  And yesterday i mentioned that it looked to me like the 10-year’s yield was back to rising… And it followed through on that thought with the 10-year’s yield closing at 4.30%… I read a report yesterday that had a bond trader calling for a 4.50% yield before election day, which is next week!  That seems to quick for me, but then I’m an old bond trader that never saw volatility in bonds like we see these days… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, someone knows something that the rest of us don’t because the dollar lost more ground overnight… The BBDXY is at 1,258 this morning, down 3 index points from yesterday.  it could be a reaction to the dollar being overbought, but It had appeared to be something that was put off for another day, once the election was over… Whatever it is, the currencies love it…. The euro is driving toward 1.09 this morning, and the rest of the currencies all look like they can sit up in their sick beds… 

Gold is getting sold this morning in the early trading and is down $16, while Silver is getting whacked again and is down 45-cents to start our day today… I would say that the higher 10-year yield (4.30%) is having an affect on the metals, but it’s not like this is a “new thing”… Gold has rallied in the face of higher yields this time, so it’s not that… Must be short paper traders… Dirty b&$^(*^)s 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle overnight, and as i just said the 10-year’s yield is 4.30% this morning… 

Well, I didn’t answer the bell this morning, I was up a lot last night with bleeding in my mouth… I hadn’t had any bleeding for over a week, and had forgotten about how nasty it is…. But I finally got it to stop about 3:30 this morning, and went back to sleep… Sorry for the tardiness of the letter today!

It IS HALLOWEEN today! Boo! Last year on Halloween, the weather had turned bitter cold and so i couldn’t sit outside giving out candy to the little Trick-or-Treaters… This year will be different I think, according to the weatherman on TV! 

OK, enough of all that, Chuck, your dear readers didn’t open up this letter to read about the weather for Halloween! 

Recall me telling you that the euro was in trouble, because of the European Central Bank’s (ECB ) jawboning bout multiple rate cuts coming?  And then this morning, I look, and the euro is on the rally horse… What gives?  Well, as I’ve told you many times in the past, The euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and when the dollar gets sold, it matter not what’s going on in the Eurozone, the euro will benefit from the dollar’s weakness… 

I have Ed Steer for you this morning regarding Gold & Silver’s performance yesterday, take it way Ed! “Gold closed at yet a new nominal high on Wednesday — and would have closed even higher than Ait did, if it had been allowed to trade freely. However, it was allowed to close above the $2,800.00 mark by a hair in the December contract. It’s also back into overbought territory by a bit once again. But despite that new high, the gold stocks closed down on the day.

One other surprising thing about yesterday’s price action in gold and silver was the fact that although the former was up on the day — and the latter closed down a hefty amount, the net volumes in both were not all overly heav

However, silver and the other two white metals weren’t even allowed a sniff of gold’s glory, as those collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were all over them like white on rice.”

Chuck again… You  can find Ed at: www.edsteergoldsliver.com

The U.S. Data Cupboard got some real economic data yesterday, and then it came back to yield more real economic data this morning…  There’s a lot here, so stay with me…  First off the ADP Employment Report was a big surprise as it showed that 233,000 jobs were added in Rocktober… The experts were only expecting 133,000… Then came the first reading of 3^rd QTR GDP, which was steady but weaker at 2.8%… I would say that we should look for downward revisions in the future here…. 

And then today’s Data Cupboard has already printed last month’s Personal Income and Spending…  Personal Income was up .3%, while Spending was up .5%…. I just didn’t see that coming, a strong spending month , but then it is an election year….  Then the Fed’s fave inflation calc. PCE (personal Consumption Expenditures) printed for Roctober at 2.1%…. That’s a lot of bull if you as me…  And finally, the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also printed…  And they were 216,000 last week…  That’s weaker than I expected since I’ve been reading about layoffs and business closings, etc.  But, once again, it’s an election year… 

To recap… The dollar traders finally broke out of their doldrums, and sold dollars a bit yesterday, and some more overnight… The overbought scenario seems to be playing out here… Gold reached another new all-time high yesterday, but is getting sold this morning… Silver continues to get whacked by the short paper traders on a daily basis… 

For What It’s Worth…. I touched on this above… But this is a report on the GDP print and it can be found here: U.S. GDP Q3 2024: (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “he U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday that is adjusted for inflation and seasonality.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.1%. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. Wednesday’s reading is the first of three the department will issue.

The report confirms that the U.S. expansion has continued despite elevated interest rates and long-standing worries that the burst of fiscal and monetary stimulus that carried the economy through the Covid crisis wouldn’t be enough to sustain growth.

However, resilient consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity, has helped keep the economy moving, as has a relentless wave of government spending that pushed the budget deficit to more than $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.

Another major factor the department cited for growth was federal government spending, which exploded higher by 9.7%, pushed by a 14.9% surge in defense outlays. Fiscal spending at the federal level contributed 0.6 percentage point to the GDP growth rate.”

Chuck again…  one has to suspect that the fact that the election is so close that this data was massaged… Like I said above, I will be looking for downward revisions with this data set in the future… 

Market Prices 10/31/2024: American Style: A$ 6577, kiwi .5978, C$ .7191, euro 1.0880, sterling 1.2974, Swiss $1.1602, European Style: rand 17.6423, krone 10.9667, SEK 10.8823, forint 375.40, zloty 3.990, koruna 23.2727, RUB 97.08, yen 152.35, sing 1.3208, HKD 7.7734, INR 84.08, China 7.1157, peso 20.05, BRL 5.7650, BBDXY 1,258.88, Dollar Index 103.85, Oil $69.24, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $33.41, Platinum $1,007.00, Palladium $1,144.00 Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,772.88

That’s it for today and this week…. A Big Congratulations to the Dodgers who had a great comeback game VS the Yankees to win the World Series 4-1… Baseball is over for this year, UGH!  My beloved Cardinals are going to sit on their hands this offseason, according to reports…. I’m so frustrated with the front office mgt of this team… My beloved Mizzou Tigers play BYE this week, so they can’t lose! HA! Well, it’s Halloween, Boo!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and a Happy Halloween today…. R.E.M. Take us to the finish line today with their great song: Losing My Religion…  I hope you will also Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies remain in their respective sick beds…
• Western investors are buying Gold…. now…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I apologize right here, right now for Monday’s very late Pfennig…  Good thing good friend, Dennis Miller, notified me that he hadn’t received a Pfennig to wake me up and get it out! I told you Monday that there would be no Pfennig yesterday, so that leaves us with two days to get caught up with! I had an eye appt. Last Friday, and in it, I was told my nearsightedness was worse, so a new prescription… UGH! I just got new glasses 6 months ago! Last time (6 mos ago) I had Kathy help me pick out my frames… And after viewing them all, I put my old glasses on, and she said, “Those! I like those the best!”… See, what I get to work with? Crowded House greets me this morning with their song: Dream On…  (80’s song!) 

Well, it does appear to me that traders have put their trading books away, and are waiting for the election results… The BBDXY didn’t budge yesterday, and remained at 1,261 all day… Gold was down $1, and Silver was up 1-cent! So, no movement there either….   I’ve got something that helps explain this situation in the FWIW section today, so keep dialed in to read that later in the letter…

But you’re not getting off so easily this morning… I have a snippet of an article that appeared on www.moneymetals.com  that I’ll share with you here: “In a recent interview, Dr. Ron Paul engages with Jp Cortez, Executive Director of the Sound Money Defense League, the national public policy project of Money Metals which seeks to remonetize gold and silver, primarily by removing taxation around the sale, use, and purchase of the assets.

Dr. Paul and Cortez explore the historical context of the U.S. dollar, particularly the tragic shift away from the gold standard during Nixon’s administration, and the resulting inflationary pressures that have followed.

They advocate for gold as a stable asset and emphasize the need for a private monetary system grounded in physical assets. This approach would help shield the economy from the detrimental effects of government money printing, runaway spending, and currency debasement.

Dr. Paul and Cortez discussed the growing distrust in fiat currency, noting how BRICS nations and various U.S. states are adopting measures to hedge against dollar depreciation by turning to gold and other tangible assets.”

Chuck again… Yes, I recall a meeting at a place outside of Atlanta years ago, where I explained to the bond traders there that we wouldn’t be anywhere near the economic growth if we had remained on a Gold Standard… But I also explained to them that we wouldn’t have the debt problem we have, nor would we suffer from inflation bouts… There’s also a funny story about that trip to Atlanta….  I was walking out of the terminal looking for Frank Trotter to come around with the car, and I was with Michelle Boshert, and Jane Dulle, and the road was a good 50 yards away… When a car pulled up, rolled down the window, and a guy yelled, “Hey! Aren’t you Chuck Butler?”  I yelled back, “yes”, and he said, “I love the Pfennig!” and drove off….  To this day, Michelle still tells that story, because she still can’t believe it and she was there! 

The price of Oil remained in the $67 handle yesterday…. And the 10-year’s yield saw a dip to 4.27%… 

Yesterday, Gold & Silver broke free of the doldrums that have affected the dollar traders, who saw the BBDXY gain just 1 index point yesterday…. Gold gained $34, to close at $2,776.00, and Silver gained 75-cents to close at $34.50…. So, the traders putting their trading books away until the elections, didn’t apply here with the metals… 

The 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.32% at one point yesterday, before it settled back at 4.25%…  it had to be the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in buying the bond to keep the yield from getting away from them…  

In the overnight markets last night…. Nothing much happened with the dollar, as the BBDXY trades this morning at 1,263… The index has picked up 2 index points this week… Big Whoop!  The price of Gold is up in the early trading today by $6… But Silver is getting whacked by the short paper traders and is down 40-cents to start the day today… The short paper trader still pummels Silver whenever they can, because…. They can….  And that’s the end of that story….  Dirty b($*#((&s. They’ll get their comeuppance one day… I can feel it my bones… But for now, we hve to deal with their whackings and taking the metals to the woodshed… 

The 10-year’s yield is 4.26% this morning…   back to rising… Hmmm….

OK, this was one funny video that was going around…  Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen was at a podium taking questions, when a reporter asked her “”How concerned are you about the potential impact of the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency?” But before she could answer the question, the seal of the U.S. Treasury / dollar,  fell off the podium!  I would say that that was an ominous omen…  wouldn’t you? 

I personally don’t feel like this is something that will occur in the next 5-7 years… But beyond that, I wouldn’t bet against it…  The BRICS are not yet ready for Prime Time, but give them time… And their asking other BRICS members to join them in the dedollarization push, didn’t really gain any traction, this time… But remember, all these countries are very aware what the U.S. did to Russia, and that it could do it to them, so they are quite aware of the vulnerability with holding U.S. dollars in reserve…. 

Regarding Gold…  Gold seems to be bucking the trend… That is when the dollar goes down, Gold goes up… And vice versa… Gold rise this year has corresponded with a rise in the dollar….  I think most of Gold’s rise has been about how the general public and Central Banks around the world, don’t believe for a minute that inflation has been defeated… 

For years I told you dear readers that inflation was a personal thing…  You may or may not experience any inflation, based on your spending habits….  If you don’t buy tickets to games, you don’t experience the inflation in game tickets… Or, if you don’t drive any longer, and therefore don’t need car insurance, you don’t experience the price inflation of car insurance….  This could go on forever, but I think you get the gist… 

I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning regarding Gold… “Global gold demand swelled about 5% in the third quarter, setting a record for the period and lifting consumption above $100 billion for the first time, according to the World Gold Council.

The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals, that helped offset waning appetite from Asia.”

Chuck again… Now that’s interesting, isn’t it?  Investors in the West hitching up their pants and finally getting on the rally truck that is Gold…. That’s typical of Western investors… Jump on the band wagon after it has travelled miles… In other words,… They buy at high levels, when they could have bought at much cheaper levels if they had gotten of their duffs and not listened to their stock jockey, who told them that Gold was a “barbaric rock” with no yield… 

Well, even if the dollar is drifting, it’s still very strong, and keeping the currencies confined to their sick beds… The Price of Oil bumped higher to a $68 handle overnight… But even still, that’s a cheap price for Oil, given that it costs the Oil producers about $70 to get Oil out of the ground….  That’s a figure that was given to me by an Oil industry guru, and so I go with it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for Sept. For us today… Big Whoop!  In addition, we’ll see the Stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month…  This report is nothing more than a heart beat of the stock market… So that’s why it’s so STUPID!   And finally, Job Openings will print for Sept.  No great shakes here in the Data Cupboard today, so move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

To recap… Traders have decided to shut down until the election, it does appear to Chuck… The dollar hasn’t budged from 1261 in the BBDXY in two days… Gold and silver are basically trading in the same clothes as yesterday… And the price of Oil remained in the $67 handle…  Ron Paul visits the Pfennig today, and Chuck looks back at a time in Atlanta years ago….

For What It’s Worth…. Here’s your answer to the question, What has slowed Gold’s upward price movement down? And it can be found here: Gold & Silver Are Consolidating Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold and silver trading remained subdued this past week, with traders holding back from significant moves as they await the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

With only seven trading days left until the U.S. presidential election, financial markets have become quiet as they anticipate the outcome. In this environment, traders are hesitant to make large bets, often resulting in slowed, range-bound trading until the results are announced.

This behavior, known as a “volatility squeeze,” has been particularly evident in gold and silver over the past week. The encouraging news is that gold and silver are poised to resume their upward trends soon, once they break out of their consolidation ranges.

Gold has performed so steadily over the past few months that its orderly ascent has almost become predictable—talk about a good problem to have! COMEX gold futures recently closed above the critical $2,700 level, issuing yet another bullish technical signal.

Over the past week, gold has traded sideways and now sits just $18 shy of its all-time high reached on Wednesday. Interestingly, gold’s consolidation over the past week is forming what looks like a bull flag—a continuation pattern that suggests further gains once gold breaks out on strong volume.

Now, we’re just waiting for the breakout, which could be triggered by the U.S. presidential election results or potentially even sooner. I anticipate gold reaching $3,000 fairly soon—a gain of just 9.2% from its current level.

Similar to gold, silver also seems to be forming a bull flag pattern following its strong breakout above the critical $32.50 level on Friday, October 18th.

As I stated after that breakout, silver is on the verge of a powerful bull run that should push it to roughly $50 quite quickly.”

Chuck again… Well, that’s pretty much how I see all this going too… So there’s that! 

Market Prices 10/29/2024: American Style: A$ .6573, kiwi .5975, C$ .7162, euro 1.0810, sterling 1.2940, Swiss $1,1503, European Style: rand 17.7507, krone 10.9869, SEK 10.7053, forint 377.58, zloty 4.0169, koruna 23.4663, RUB 97.03, yen 153.37, sing 1.3252, HKD 7.7716, INR 84.08, China 7.1249, peso 20.01, BRL 5.1249, BBDXY 1,263.95, Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $68.64, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $34.10, Platinum $1,028.00, Palladium $1,161.00, Copper $4.33, and Gold… $2,782.07

That’s it for today… Well, I’m going back to the basics, and attempting to remind the folks at MD Anderson that I used to be a patient there… It’s been nearly 10 years since I’ve last been there…  The tumor in my mouth is beginning to make eating difficult, which for weight loss is good…. But not for nutrition…  It’s always something with me, eh? I hate that it’s like that, but what is a poor boy, like me, to do?  I had a dear reader write to me and tell me his calculation for inflation was 23%…  That seems about right to me!   Alvin Lee  (whom I loved to hear play his guitar!) and Ten Years After, take us to the finish line today with their song: Choo, Choo Momma…  That song will get you dancing in your seat! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Gold has small rallies Thursday & Friday last week
• And is it all over but the crying for Bitcoin?

Good Day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the Dodgers are up 2-0, in the World Series, as the games now shift to the Bronx, for the next three, that is if three is needed… My beloved Mizzou Tigers found out that they weren’t ready for Prime Time on Saturday, as they got clobbered by Alabama…. I have to think that it would have been closer if our starting quarterback was still in the game… But that was not to be, and his backup, well, he threw 3 interceptions, need I say more?  There will be NO Pfennig tomorrow, as I have an appt. With my heart doctor bright and early…  And this will be late today, because I was on cloud nine this morning and thought it was Sunday!  The Band… Smith, greets me this morning with their song: Baby, It’s You…

Well, I don’t know what traders had in mind going into the last two trading days of last week… But they sure weren’t into making calls to go one way or the other!  The BBDXY ended the week at 1,261…  and it had been 1259 at the end of trading on Thursday… Gold found a way to avoid all the holes that the short paper traders put in the road, and gain a bit on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 1,248…  That’s just a $10 gain from Wednesday last week… But… It was a gain, whereas Silver never found a bid that wasn’t wiped out by the short paper traders… Silver ended the week at $33.67…  about $30 off its intraday high on Friday… 

So, Gold gained, albeit at a slower pace as the short paper traders made life hell for the Gold bugs, and Silver lost ground to close the week, so there’s work to still be done here, folks… Hang onto your hats…  I do believe there’s more upside to be gained here… 

I read an article on Forbes.com this past weekend titled: “Why is the price of Gold so high right now?”  The article didn’t tell me anything that I haven’t already talked about here, but it did mention that traders/ short term holders are entering the Gold market right now….  To that I say, no thanks!  We don’t need your short-term trades, we’re only interested in store of wealth investors that are in it for the long run! 

And after one day of buying, the 10-year was back on the selling blocks again to end the week…  On Thursday morning, the 10-year Treasury’s yield was 4.19%… But by the time we ended the week last Friday, the 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.27%….    

And the price of Oil got clobbered on Friday… We ended the week with Oil trading with a $68 handle, down over $3 for the day… What? Did the wars in Ukraine, and the Middle East end, and all’s right in the world again?  You would think that something like that would have to happen for the price of Oil to drop like that…. I’m just saying…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar continued to drift and is stuck at 1,261… Hmmm….  ominous right? We’ll have to wait-n-see… Gold is down $4 to start the day today… And Silver is up 9-cents…  These two just can’t seem to rally at the same time in recent days… 

The price of Oil dropped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $67 handle… The media is claiming that because Israel targeted only military bases in their attack this past weekend, and not the Nuclear or Oil refineries, that’s the reason Oil has dropped so much…   Hmmm…  I don’t know if I see eye to eye with that, but it’s what is being reported, so there you go! 

And the 10-year’s yield is trading at 4.29% this morning…   What if…. What if this is just the beginning of the exposure of the rot on treasuries vines?  I’m just saying…. 

Well, I mentioned the sell off of the 10-year above, and then this weekend I ran to this article on Bloomberg.com that talked about what’s going on.” The US bond market, already stung by the worst selloff in six months, now heads into a crucial two-week stretch that will likely chart its course for the rest of the year.

A series of market-moving events are coming in rapid succession, kicked off by the Treasury Department’s announcement Wednesday on the scale of its coming debt sales and by monthly payroll figures Friday that will show whether the economy is cooling enough to justify further interest-rate cuts.”

Chuck again… The article goes on to talk about the following week that has the election that could drive yields one way or the other depending on who wins…. 

OK… The currencies are all down in the dumps again, with the dollar beating them all the way to the woodshed… The euro has lost the 1.08 figure once again, the Japanese yen is probably not going to stop losing ground until it hits 155… And while all of the rest of the currencies are all in their sick beds… The Chinese renminbi continues to hold onto its gains VS the dollar in recent trading…   I’m going to say this again, for all of you who missed class the day I said the first time, But the dollar is overbought right now, and that will remain until it doesn’t…  That’s how these things usually work… No sense in beating yourself up over it…  

The BBDXY is down just 1% in the last year…. At one point last spring, it appeared to be all over for the green/ peachback, but then it wasn’t… And it’s been all about the dollar on and off since then….

A dear reader sent me a video to watch of a newscast that highlighted the BRIC Conference held last week, and the emcee had this to say, which I agreed with wholeheartedly… ” A lot of country leaders, economists, and observers are shrugging off the BRICs call for dedollarization… But I’m here to tell you that I believe that you’ll be sorry when the BRICS get all their ducks in a row, and achieve this call for dedollarization…”    I remember saying to the screen, “I hear you buddy, and welcome to my life, of people doubting you”…. 

I have something that’s not good news for the Bitcoin crowd in the FWIW section today, so make sure you stay dialed in here, so you don’t miss that! 

And The Russian Central Bank raised their internal interest rate to 21% from 19%, this represents the highest rate around, folks… But don’t try to lock in a high yield here… The sanctions on Russia, have put the kyboshes on any investments here…  

The U.S Data Cupboard last Friday, had the Sept. Durable Goods Orders and they were not good… In Aug Durable Good Orders were negative -.8%, and in Sept they were the same, a negative -.8%…  And the economy is doing just fine, right Janet Yellen?  

This week’s Data Cupboard is back-end loaded….  there’s not much to see until we get to Thursday this week, and then all hell breaks loose, culminating in the Jobs Jamboree on Friday this week…

To recap…  We ended last week, with traders not making any calls to go either direction…  The dollar is still on the top of the hill, king of the hill, if you will… Chuck is befuddled as to why the price of Oil fell 5% last week….  The currencies are all in their sick beds again… But with the dollar being overbought, how long will that last?  

For What It’s Worth… Well this is the piece that is just one of three that I’ve read recently that talk about what the Central Banks of the U.S. and Eurozone have in store for Bitcoin, and it can be found here: A ‘Declaration Of War’—Fed And ECB Plot To ‘Tax Or Ban’ Bitcoin And Use Price Gains To Escape $35.7 Trillion Doom Loop (forbes.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has published a paper this week arguing bitcoin and similar assets could be taxed or banned to help governments maintain deficits.

“A legal prohibition against bitcoin can restore unique implementation of permanent primary deficits, and so can a tax on bitcoin,” the paper’s authors wrote, adding bitcoin creates a “balanced budget trap” that highlights spending shortfalls.

The Fed has “joined the European Central Bank in its attack on bitcoin,” said VanEck’s head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel, writing in an X thread that the paper “fantasizes about ‘legal prohibition’ and extra taxes on bitcoin to ensure government debt remains the ‘only risk-free security.'”

The bitcoin price has surged along with the price of gold this year as investors bet higher interest rates combined with a huge increase in deficits will create a feedback loop, forcing governments to print more money.

U.S. national debt has skyrocketed in recent years, crossing the $34 trillion mark at the beginning of 2024, largely due to Covid and lockdown stimulus measures that sent inflation spiraling out of control and forced the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at a historical clip.

Earlier this year, Bank of America analysts warned the U.S. debt load is about to ramp up to add $1 trillion every 100 days—potentially fueling a bitcoin price surge—and could reach $36 trillion by the end of 2024.

The Fed’s paper follows a report from the ECB that argues “the existence of bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers,” describing it as a “zero-sum game” in which bitcoin buyers “increase their real wealth and consumption” at the expense of others.

“The ECB claims that early bitcoin adopters steal economic value from latecomers,” bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester posted to X, calling the paper “a true declaration of war” and adding he “strongly believes authorities will use this luddite argument to enact harsh taxes or bans.”

Chuck again…  Yes, dear reader, the Gov’t could ban Bitcoin, or tax it so no one would want to own it… And if the Fed already has a working paper on how to do this, you can bet it’s being discussed in the inner circles of Gov’t…. 

Market Prices 10/28/2024: American Style: A$.6583, kiwi .5976, C$ .7183, euro 1.0816, sterling 1.2971, Swiss $1.1556, European Style: rand 17.6853, krone 10.9903, SEK 10.6597, forint 374.07, zloty 4.0219, koruna 23.4556, RUB 97.25, yen 153.28, sing 1.3226, HKD 7.7716, INR 84.07, China 7.1293, peso 19.08, BRL 5.6936, BBDXY 1,261.35,  Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $67.72, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $33.76, Platinum $1,038.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $4.36, and Gold…. $2,743.34

That’s it for today… And tomorrow….  talk to you next on Wednesday this week… This week is Polar Bear Week! Not that I know any Polar Bears…. HA! We will end Rocktober this week, and then my most hated month comes to us…. November… Last year, I went to S. Florida for the first two weeks of Nov. and it did help get the month over more quickly… But not this year, I’m still not ready for Prime Time! Kathy came back home this past weekend… So, my time alone, was over… I didn’t even have a problem while I was alone… And I didn’t have Pizza one night!  I’ll be contacting MD Anderson today, so more on that when I know more… I’ve been a good boy doing my Physical Therapy home work… It’s all simple exercises but since I haven’t done any kind of exercising for years,  I get worn out easily… Not so much now, though, after a week of doing them…  Neil Young takes us to the finish line today with his song: 4 Strong Winds….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler