Author: admin

• dollar drifts through the end of last week
• Germany may be added to the list of recession countries.

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, as you probably figured out when there was no Pfennig yesterday, that it was a holiday, and Chuck took full advantage of that! Yes, another day of sleeping late did me some good, for sure! One week done… the first Friday of lent, saw Kathy trying to get me to eat some sausages… But I refused, and had tuna salad instead! She can’t be blamed though, as down here, she rarely knows what day of the week it is… If I didn’t write the Pfennig each day, I wouldn’t know either! The whole team of Cardinals reported yesterday, to Spring Training, and the crowds around the back fields where practice is held, are growing in numbers… I remember when I could pull up close to the back fields, and go find a place in the stands and watch practice… But the crowds have grown so much, that it’s impossible to do what I used to do… The Stylistics greet me this morning with their one hit wonder: Betcha By, Golly Wow

Well… Late last week, saw the dollar get sold on Thursday to the tune of 5 index points in the BBDXY, and then drift about the open sea on Friday… Friday we saw that PPI, wholesale inflation, is still showing that prices will not be going down soon, and that has the markets afraid that the rate cut they all salivate over, may not come until June… or later… Gold & Sliver got back on the rally tracks and ran with the engine fully stoked to higher levels… On Thursday Gold gained $12 and Silver gained 56-cents.. On Friday, Gold gained $9.20 and Silver gained 49-cents… Gold ended the week at $2,013.20, and Silver at $23.38… 

The price of Oil booked gains on Thursday and Friday last week and ended the week trading with a $79 handle… Have you noticed your gas pump prices are rising again?  The 10-year’s yield was pretty Steady Eddie late last week, and ended the week with a 4.28% yield… 

Yesterday was a holiday in the U.S. and Canada, so the markets were watered down greatly… The dollar still traded overseas, and so did Gold… And all day long, every time I checked on Gold, it was up about $4… And then at the end of the day, it dropped to a 50-cent loss on the day.. to close at: $2,017.90… Ad Silver had the same thing happen to it, late in the day, to lose 2-cents on the day, to close at: $23.05… The price of Oil remained trading in the $79 handle, and the 10-year’s yield inched higher to 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… There was some slippage in the dollar, as the BBDXY starts today down 1 index point. The euro has regained the 1.08 handle, and the rest of the currencies all look as though they are healing, after being sick in bed all last week. Gold is up today $10 to start the day, and Silver is up 12-cents. This will be a data -deprived week for us, and so that leads to sentiment and speeches that will be coming to decide the direction of the dollar, and metals this week. 

The price of Oil also saw some slippage last night, as it slid just below $79…  And it must have been a night for slipping and sliding, because the 10-year’s yield also dropped a bit to 4.27%… I have this feeling that this week will prove to me key for the non-dollar assets, and whether or not there is interference will also play into this week’s activities… 

I saw this the other day in Business Insider.com: “A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve’s next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.

“There’s a meaningful chance, maybe it’s 15%, that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards,” Summers said during an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, adding that the Fed has to be “very careful.”

Chuck again… I was never a fan of Larry Summers when he ran the Treasury, but after reading what he had to say last Friday, I think he’s bang on with his thoughts… 

And another reason why bond buyers need to beware… Sure, at some time in the future the Fed Heads will get around to a rate cut again, but when that will be and how long into the future is the question, and as long as there is a question or two about rate directions, I, for one, wouldn’t be buying Bonds… But then that’s just me, and I have this inner ability to think logically… 

Last week I told you that Britain had entered a recession in the 4^th QTR of 2023, and then on Friday, Reuters reported that, “British retail sales jumped by the most in almost three years, suggesting the economy could emerge quickly from its recession in the second half of last year. Sales volumes increased by 3.4% from December, much stronger than the median forecast of a 1.5% increase in a Reuters poll of economists.”

Of course, December is Christmas shopping season, and in my opinion, the people that make these calls, need to wait-n-see January’s Retail Sales, before sounding the all-clear horn for Britain…  

Now, the reports are circulating that Germany entered a recession in the 4^th QTR too… That would make Germany, Britain, and Japan all in recessions now… And the U.S.?  Well, the GDP in the country won’t budge to negative territory because of all the Gov’t spending… And besides, every time the U.S. was about to slip into a recession since the Big Al Fed Head days, the Fed Heads have loosened monetary conditions to keep the U.S. from falling into a recession… In other words… Kicking the can down the road, for when the mother-of-all-recessions hits us, it will have all hose years of pent up frustration to unleash on us…  I’m just saying… 

Bloomberg.com reported this morning that: “Oil held near the highest level in three weeks as persistent geopolitical tensions countered concerns over the demand outlook.”

Chuck again… Geopolitical problems are growing folks… And that’s bullish for Oil and Gold… There were reports yesterday that the terrorists attack in the Red Sea had the crew abandoning ship which means the attack was very strong… So much for the U.S. putting the terrorists in their place, eh? 

And I found this on LewRockwell.com, and it’s Michael Snyder, of whom I’ve talked about and highlighted his comments previously, here’s Michael Snyder: “If stock prices are going to start plunging just because inflation is running a little bit hotter than expected, what is going to happen once the market finally realizes that the entire economy is literally starting to come apart at the seams?  Consumer delinquency rates are spiking, the commercial real estate crisis is rapidly picking up steam, banks from coast to coast are in deep financial trouble, large corporations all over America are conducting mass layoffs, and homelessness has been rising at the fastest pace ever recorded.  But if you ignore all of those little details, you can be just like Joe Biden and Janet Yellen, and pretend that everything is just fine.”

Chuck again… Ahem… Does that sound like me or what? I’ve been talking about all those things except homelessness, of which I find shameful on this country! 

 The U.S. Data Cupboard last week was, I described what I thought it would look like, bang on with my thought… First off on Thursday, Jan. Retail Sales came in a horrid -.8%, and the Core Retail Sales ,you know without, food, energy, or housing, as if anyone could live without those things, was still -.6%…   Really, I don’t know why they do a separate calculation for this… The powers that be see this as a way to confuse the masses…  So, going onward, Industrial Production was negative -.1% in Jan. and Capacity Utilization was down to 78.5 VS 78.7 in Dec.   

On Friday, we saw PPI come in much stronger than expected, thus showing what I keep saying that inflation is sticky and not going away anytime soon… PPI was .3% in Jan, VS -.1% in Dec.   As I’ve explained previously, PPI is wholesale inflation and those higher prices will show up sooner or later in Consumer Inflation… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the January Leading Indicators… Some of you will recall that for 18 previous months we’ve seen negative numbers for this forward looking piece of data… And I would think that today’s print will make it 19 consecutive months…  The rest of the week is a non-event for data… 

To recap… Late last week saw damaging economic data for the U.S. And that kept the dollar bugs from running all over the kitchen floor… The BBDXY has remained in the 1,243 handle for 3 consecutive days… Thursday, Friday, and Monday saw little to no movement in the dollar… On Thursday, last week, the BBDXY fell 6 index points to 1,243… And that loss came after the bad Retail Sales report that day… The mental giants believe that the U.K. will leave their recession very quickly… Chuck says, Whoa, there partner!   And it looks like Germany will join Britain and Japan as countries that have recessions, right now… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article last Friday morning, while perusing on my phone… This is an article regarding something that I mentioned previously, that has Jerome Powell, saying that it’s time we had an adult conversation about the debt, and more, and it can be found here: Jerome Powell Says $34 Trillion National Debt Is Ready For An ‘Adult Conversation’ — Janet Yellen Calls Sustainable Fiscal Path ‘Critically Important’ (yahoo.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Most everyone understands the U.S. national debt is not on a long-term sustainable path, but no one seems sure when the breaking point might be for real-world consequences.

In a recent “60 Minutes” interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell brought up the elephant in the room, stressing that it’s now “time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path.”

Frustration and worry were visibly apparent in the usually poker-faced Powell, who said that we’re “borrowing from future generations.” Taking on more debt is just another word for borrowing, and with the massive size of the debt, it won’t be paid back overnight.

What’s most troubling is not the absolute number of the $34 trillion debt but the pace at which it’s increasing and the rising cost of interest payments to service it.

The U.S. spends more in gross interest payments on its debt than on national defense, at a time when America’s military strength is especially crucial with increased tensions in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s continued threats toward Taiwan.

With the Fed maintaining high interest rates as part of its effort to completely stamp out inflation, it makes both new borrowing and interest payments on that money borrowed even more expensive for the U.S. government.

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen also highlighted the importance of fiscal responsibility, telling lawmakers during a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, “It’s critically important that the U.S. be on a fiscally sustainable path.””

Chuck Again…  Like I said previously when I heard Powell say that, “now is a dollar short and a day late for that conversation, Jerome!, it should have been done 20 years ago! But that’s water under the bridge now, and there’s no use crying about spilt milk…  Let’s start axing deficit spending, and see where that takes us! 

Market Prices 2/20/2024: American Style: A$.6562, kiwi .6172, C$ .7421, euro 1.0805, sterling 1.2605, Swiss $1.1339, European Style: rand 19.9597, krone 10.4655, SEK 10.3822, forint 349.61, zloty 4.00koruna 23.5379, RUB 92.49, yen 150.11, sing 1.3446, HKD 7.8211, INR 82.97, China 7.1948, peso 17.01, BRL 4.9558, BBDXY 1,242.28, Dollar Index 104.08, Oil $78.85, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $23.17, Platinum $916.00, Palladium $992.00, Copper $3.82, and Gold… $2,027.80

That’s it for today… Well, tradition calls for Chuck to go on his annual Spring vacation in March… And this year, I’ll start it a little earlier, and begin it on 2/26/2024, and end it on 3/5/2024… A week without Chuck, What will you do? HA!  It was another ugly weekend for my two basketball teams, as Mizzou and StL. U. both lost again on Saturday… UGH! Hopefully these are rebuilding years for the two universities… Just 4 more days till the first Spring Training Game, that I will be attending by myself… My Spring Training buddies don’t arrive until Sunday 2/25… And Kathy will head back to St. Louis this Friday… This won’t be the first time I’ve been there by myself… And it probably won’t be the last either! Bill Withers takes us to the finish line today with his great song: Ain’t No Sunshine (When She’s gone)… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar drifts lower on Wednesday
• Ed Steer joins us this morning…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  So, how was your Valentine’s Day? Mine was good, with a great meal last night, and friends… It was a late night for me, so I’m dragging the line this morning. UGH! And you know what that indicates, right? That this Pfennig will be short-n-sweet today… Our Blues take on the Oilers tonight on the Blues’ Home Ice… The game is on ESPN+ which means I won’t be able to watch it… UGH!  Robert Palmer greets me this morning with his song: Sailing Shoes… 

Well… we’re now two days past the major selloff of the currencies & metals, and in that time, we’ve seen the dollar drift, lower, but no change in the currencies or Gold… Silver, on the other hand is back to booking strong gains, and that is our shining star today!  The BBDXY lost 1 index point again yesterday, to 1248… Still quite high and overbought in my opinion. Gold lost 80-cents yesterday, and closed the day at $1,991.90… Silver gained 26-cents to close at $22.32…  You can see the difference between a day of normal trading, and a day of major interference by the powers that be, right?  

The price of Oil saw some interference yesterday, as the price slid to a $75 handle… The price of Oil had just reached its 200-day moving avg. yesterday, and then the rug was pulled from under it…  And suddenly, out of left field there was some buying of the 10-year bond yesterday… And the 10-year’s yield dropped from 4.30% to 4.22%… Who was doing the buying? And for what reason? Only the Shadow Knows… 

In the overnight market last night…  There wasn’t much movement from anything except Silver… The BBDXY has lost 1 index point overnight, and Gold has gained $4 in the early trading today… Silver has gained 24-cents in the early trading today, so you can see what I was talking bout above, regarding Silver getting back to strong gains… 

The Price of Oil remained in the $75 handle, with little movement overnight. And bonds… this is one strange market these days folks… I wonder what an old bond trader would say about these rapid moves up and down in bonds? Wait a minute, here… I am an old bond trader, what the heck am I talking about? I would say that Big money is moving bonds, and that indicates to me that it is Central Bank buying… I’m just saying… 

OK… well, yesterday saw some buying of Gold that was offset by short sellers… And here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on that: “So it was JPMorgan and Citigroup buying all those longs in February yesterday — and then demanding immediate delivery…two bullion banks sticking it to three other bullion banks. There’s no honor among thieves.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

That was a shame yesterday that shooting broke out after the K.C. Chiefs Super Bowl Parade yesterday… There was over 20 people shot… There were over 1 Million people in the area, so it very well have been worse… 

Geez Chuck, why did you have to write about that this morning? C’Mon Chuck, get with the program here! 

Ok, sorry… don’t know what came over me there, but as usual my fat fingers began typing and the next thing I knew I was talking about something that had nothing to do with currencies, metals, economies and dolts… 

Reuters reported this morning that; “Britain’s economy fell into a recession in the second half of 2023, a tough backdrop ahead of this year’s expected election for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who has promised to boost growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in the three months to December, having shrunk by 0.1% between July and September, official data showed.

The fourth-quarter contraction was deeper than all economists’ estimates in a Reuters poll, which had pointed to a 0.1% decline.”

Chuck again… well that helps explains why sterling can’t seem to find a bid this week… 

And no surprises here, Japan also entered a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world’s third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy.  I fell really bad about making such a BIG deal about how I thought the Bank of Japan was nearing a rate hike that would take their negative rates to positive, and get Japanese bonds back on the trading boards… I should have known that Japan would disappoint us… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this morning has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… In addition today, we’ll see the color of Jan Retail Sales…  I’m going to say that the BHI indicates that this will not be a very good report… Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will also print this morning, and both should be disappointing… 

To recap… The dollar is drifting, albeit lower, since all that buying that took place on Tuesday. The currencies still can’t find a bid though, and they remain sick in bed… Gold is trying to get it going again, but is struggling. Silver though has put Tuesday in its rear view mirror, and begun the recovery…  Ed Steer joins us this morning with a great line talking about the Bullion Banks, saying: “There’s no honor among thieves”…  And Britain and Japan are being pointed out as economies that entered a recession…   

For What It’s Worth… Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this and I quickly thought it to be FWIW worthy… It’s about U.S. households being on the brink, and it can be found here: American Households Are on the Brink of Ruin | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “US households appear to have short memories when it comes to financial lessons learned from past crises. Despite the harsh lessons of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, many households in the United States are right now repeating the same mistakes.

Recent data reveals that personal consumption expenditures on goods surged by 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, outpacing overall U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.3 percent. This trend is concerning, especially since it’s not supported by rising income. In fact, personal spending grew at more than double the rate of personal income in 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The surge in spending is fueled by debt rather than increased income. Household debt hit a record high of $17.5 trillion by the end of 2023, a 24 percent jump from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. This debt includes mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit card balances. Notably, credit card balances increased by 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, indicating that consumers are relying more on debt to cover everyday expenses.

Newly released credit card data also reveals a disturbing uptick in delinquencies among credit card holders, with one in twelve struggling to make payments—a level not seen since 2011, when unemployment was substantially higher.

What’s particularly alarming is that while household debt has grown significantly since 2019, real personal income has only seen modest growth. This means households are more indebted relative to their income than before the recession induced by the lockdowns in 2020.

Further signs of financial strain include a decline in the personal savings rate and depletion of existing savings. The personal savings rate dropped from 5.3% in May  to 3.9% in December. Aggregate personal savings have fallen by over 27% since December 2019, indicating that households are dipping into savings to meet their needs at never before seen levels.”

Chuck again… Yes, I’ve been talking about the credit card explosion and how that’s going to come back in tears for a lot of folks… it’s good that someone else sees this as a problem, other than little old me! 

Market Prices 2/15/2024: American Style: A$ .6499, kiwi .6093, C$ .7386, euro 1.0736, sterling 1.2556, Swiss $1.1323, European Style: rand 19.0090, krone 10.5796, SEK 10.4857, forint 362.59, zloty 4.0467, koruna 23.6389, RUB 92.15, yen 150.02, sing 1.3473, HKD 7.8202, INR 83.04, China 7.1936, peso 17.06, BRL 4.9739, BBDXY 1,246.54, Dollar Index 104.63, Oil $75.93, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $22.67, Platinum $909.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $3.71, and Gold… $1,996.90

That’s it for today… See? Short-n-sweet… sort of ….  I sat here this morning watching and being mesmerized by the rising sun out of the ocean… Simply beautiful… And now, I have to return to writing! Some things you just have to stop and enjoy… And this is one of those!  Well, Pitchers and Catchers have all reported to Spring Training, with the full team to arrive in 4 more days… The players that live here have been at the stadium working out all winter… Now the countdown turns to the first game, which is 9 days away!  YAHOO!  Herb Albert and the Tijuana Brass take us to the finish line today with his song: This Guy’s In Love With You…  Now that’s an oldie for sure!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and I do hope you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get whacked on Tuesday…
• Default, debts, deficits, and Chuck turns all gloom and doom…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Yesterday was Shrove Tuesday, and I went for breakfast and had blueberry pancakes or shroves… Yummy! I don’t eat sweets these days, so whenever I do have something with a little sugar in it, I enjoy it immensely!  Today is Ash Wednesday, and the beginning of Lent…  So, do your repenting, and fasting, etc. Our Blues had been playing better hockey lately, but ran into a buzzsaw in Toronto last night, losing to the Maple Leafs… UGH!  Blind Faith greets me this morning with their song: Can’t Find My Way Home… 

Well… I should slap myself in the forehead doing a version of a V-8 commercial for my utterly stupid suggestion on Monday this week that the data would hurt the dollar… When I should have known and do know better than to say something like that, given that my thought was that inflation would tick up… That means longer & higher for interest rates, and that is good for the dollar, no matter that inflation is a killer to an economy, the dollar thrives on knowing that its current interest rate will not be cut any time soon… So, after sending myself to the corner to wear a dunce cap, and repeat over and over again, that higher inflation is good for the dollar, and bad for Gold, I have emerged wiser… 

The BBDXY gained 9 index points yesterday… That’s right I said 9 index points! The currencies all look sick, very sick this morning…  And Gold? Gold got whacked yesterday, with some help from the short Gold Paper traders, the shiny metal lost $35! And fell below the $2,000 figure again… The last time Gold fell below $2,000 after looking like it was over the figure for good, it came back with a vengeance, so maybe that will happen again?   

Silver lost 84-cents! Nearly a buck off the value of Silver yesterday, brought Silver to a closing price of $22.16… The short Silver paper traders were also quite evident in the Silver trades yesterday…  As I’ve explained before, whenever there’s a slight disturbance in the force in Gold & Sliver, the short paper traders then pile on making things much worse than they would have been without the boys in the band… 

The price of oil briefly bumped to a $78 handle yesterday, but then closed below the figure at the close at $77.61… And bonds got sold like funnel cakes at the State Fair yesterday, after the STUPID CPI printed, and the 10-year’s yield closed trading yesterday at 4.31%… 

Yes, the STUPID CPI came in at a gain of 3.1%, year-on-year, compared to forecasts for up 2.9% and compares to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. The “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) for January also came in warmer than expected at up 3.9%, year-on-year. So, it was weaker than the previous month, but ran much hotter than expected, and that caused the initial selling in all asset classes… stocks included…   So, since the markets put so much emphasis on the STUPID CPI, this is what happens when it disappoints them… 

In the overnight markets last night…. There was some slipping in the dollar, but not enough to write home about. The BBDXY is at 1,249 this morning, and the currencies still look all sickly… Gold is still getting sold this morning and is down $3 in the early trading today. Silver is also down this morning, 8-cents.

The price of Oil continues to rise in the $77 handle, and the 10-year’s yield is at 4.30% this morning. That’s a HUGE jump from yesterday, folks… From 4.16% yield yesterday to 4.30% yield today is a HUGE jump for bonds, and it’s also a HUGE loss in the bond price…

The Good folks at GATA sent me this note from Alasdair Macleod yesterday: “Today the U.S. consumer price index came in a little better than expected, not that a few decimals mean anything. Gold was marked down $35. So what was that about?

Quite simply, the bullion bank traders know that gold is going to go much higher and want to go long in the paper market. Physical supply is being cornered by central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and ultra-wealthy individuals, particularly in Asia.

The reason they can hit the price is that they are not being challenged in paper markets, where speculative interest has died.”

Chuck again… So, they sell Gold to get it cheaper to buy?  Well, they had better buy at some time!  here’s the thing folks that many people just don’t understand… Inflation, whether it’s 9% or 3.4% eats away at your dollar… James Rickards said this recently, “But a 3.4% inflation rate cuts the value of a dollar in half in 21 years and half again in another 21 years. That’s a 75% dollar devaluation in just 42 years or the course of a typical career from age 23 to age 65.”   So, during my lifetime, the dollar’s value has gone down over 90%… And we’ve still got more years in my life, at least I hope so! 

So, do your best to say, “I don’t need Gold, I have stocks and they’ll never go down.” Or, I don’t need Gold I’ve done just fine without it” or, whatever other rationalization you use to admit you’ve never bought Gold, and when the you know what hits the fan, you’ll be on the outside looking in, and saying to yourself… “I should’ve bought Gold”… 

I know, I know, that the last bit isn’t for most of you, because you have bought your Gold, and are storing your wealth properly, but there are a lot of folks out there, that haven’t even begun to think about buying Gold…  It’s those folks that need to read that last bit…  Got Gold?

Good friend, Dennis Miller, recently ran an article that interviewed me in the letter… In the letter I said the things that many of you have heard over the years, but just for grins and giggles, let’s go back to the interview, because I said something there that everyone needs to hear…  this can be found at www.milleronthemoney.com 

“A graph from Ray Dalio about “The Changing World Order” got my attention.

He put an arrow where he feels we, as a nation, currently sit. We are in the middle of three steps; printing money, internal conflict and loss of reserve currency.

Do you agree with his assessment?

CHUCK: Yes, I do… I too read Ray Dalio’s book, and when I saw that graph, I said to myself, “WOW, only 4 steps from a new order.” We’re much closer to default and new order than I dreamed of in 2021.

Ray certainly did his homework, the research, going back hundreds of years to track different countries, regions, economic history, and each one that he researched had this track record as shown in this graph.

“In the things that really matter – money and war – the elites of both parties are unified, as tight as a head gasket. President’s change – but the laws, regulations, bureaucracy, the Deep State, the wars and deficits don’t.”

— Bill Bonner

Very few people in the U.S. (other than readers of The Daily Pfennig, Miller on the Money, Bill Bonner, Paul Craig Roberts or Ray’s book) have any inkling something like this is on the horizon. I fear many will be stunned and shocked when it all happens, particularly when they realize their nest egg has been reduced to ashes.

I don’t want to sound like “Mr. Gloom and Doom,” but these are things that need to be said, and heard, by the masses. Major changes are coming and I fear they will not be pretty.”  again… Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, has already been gone through… Today’s Data Cupboard is empty , except for two Fed Head speeches on the docket… 

To recap… the STUPID CPI got the markets all fired up, and thinking that higher and longer for interest rates are in the cards, and that got the dollar bugs all excited and running all around the kitchen floor, buying dollars, and sending the currencies to the woodshed. Gold & Silver got whacked! And whacked good! With the short paper traders in both assets, taking liberty with piling on yesterday… Gold is back below $2,000, and now maybe we can see it return with a vengeance!   

For What It’s Worth… Well, a lot has been written about derivatives, and a lot more will be written about them in the future, but for us here and now, there’s the folks at wallstreetonparade.com, Russ & Pam Martens bring us this update on derivatives, what Ron Paul calls weapons of mass destruction… And it can be found here: Five Wall Street Banks Hold $223 Trillion in Derivatives — 83 Percent of All Derivatives at 4,600 Banks (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “According to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), derivatives played a major role in the financial crash of 2007 to 2010 in the United States, the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  The FCIC wrote in its final report: “…the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions — unseen and unknown in this unregulated market — added to uncertainty and escalated panic….”

Americans believed that the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 would fulfill its promise of reining in concentrated risks like derivatives. It did not. (See our report from 2015: President Has His Facts Seriously Wrong on Financial Reform.)

According to data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, as of March 31, 2009, five bank holding companies held $277.57 trillion in derivatives (notional/face amount). At that time, according to the FDIC, there were 8,249 federally-insured commercial banks and savings associations in the U.S. but just five bank holding companies held 95 percent of all derivatives at all U.S. banks. Those financial institutions were: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

Now flash forward to the most recent report from the OCC for the quarter ending September 30, 2023. According to that report, those same five bank holding companies hold $223 trillion of the $268 trillion in derivatives held by all banks in the U.S., or 83 percent.

Another major area of concern is who is on the other side of these derivative trades with the mega banks – their so-called “counterparty.”

According to federal researchers, there are both mega bank counterparties as well as  “non-bank financial counterparties” – which could be insurance companies, brokerage firms, asset managers or hedge funds. There are also “non-financial corporate counterparties” – which could be just about any domestic or foreign corporation. To put it another way, the American people have no idea if they own common stock in a publicly-traded company that could blow up any day from reckless dealings in derivatives with global banks.”

Chuck again… Don’t think anything bad will happen from these derivatives? Well, then maybe you forgot that Merrill Lynch blew up Orange County, California with derivatives. Some of the biggest trading houses on Wall Street blew up the giant insurer, AIG, with derivatives in 2008, forcing the U.S. government to take over AIG with a massive bailout….  I’m just saying…

Market Prices today 2/14/2024: American Style: A$ .6479, kiwi .6079, C$ .7387, euro 1.0706, sterling 1.2554, Swiss $1.1276, European Style: rand 19.0753, krone 10.5967, SEK 10.5727, forint 362.90, zloty 4.0557, koruna 23.1376, RUB 91.53, yen 150.16, sing 1.3496, HKD 7.8186, INR 83.02, China 7.1936, peso 17.14, BRL 4.9538, BBDXY 1,249.62, Dollar Index 104.89, Oil $77.89, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $22.09, Platinum $896.00, Palladium $900.00, Copper $3.71, and Gold… $1,990.76

That’s it for today… I bet you thought I had forgotten about this being Valentine’s Day? Not so fast there Tim!  Yes, today is Valentine’s Day, so… What did you get for that love of your life? We will be going out for dinner tonight, and I have purchased a special Valentine’s Day Shirt to wear! I can’t wait to show it off! I have special shirts for every holiday, and important event… Bet your didn’t know I had this “wild streak” in me?  I’m still full of surprises!  And here’s a twist on all that lovey, dovey stuff…   How about… a Valentine’s Spay? Hear about the shelter letting you name a feral cat after your ex and have them neutered?  That’s cold, Willis! And the Righteous Brothers sing a song this morning, that I hope you never experience: You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feeling… I hope you have a Wonderful Ash Wednesday today, and Valentine’s Day, and will be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar drifts on Monday…
• the euro is a currency in waiting…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What a beautiful day it was here yesterday, and we had company to share it with! Good friends, Jack and Lorraine, from the Pokenos, were in town and spent the day with us! On the beach! I know, my hip is barking at me right now for that trip to the beach, but it was well worth it, being with good friends… Then dinner last night with Jack and Lorraine, and good friend Gus, who’s from Longisland… (That’s how they pronounce it )  It was like old times here in Juno Beach… And I loved it!  Nina Simone greets me this morning with her great song: Feelin’ Good…   Don’t know that one? YouTube it, and I think you’ll say, WOW!

Well, the dollar after starting the day down 3 index points from the overnight markets rallied to end up 1 index point on the day…  I told you the dollar bugs were on a Hard Habit to Break! But that will change, in the near future, when Russia and China announce they are backing their currencies with Gold…  

Speaking of Gold, it ended the day down $1.30 yesterday, to close at $2,024.10, and Silver added to its early morning gain of 31-cents to close at a gain of 39-cents and a price of $23.08… I’m not going to keep talking about how Silver will outperform Gold this year, I’ll just wait until year-end, and say: neener, neener, neener, I told you so! 

The price of Oil wiped out the early morning loss to gain more than $1 on the day , and end the day with a $79 handle! It’s taken some time for Oil traders to get the idea that there’s a problem in the Red Sea… But they finally go it, apparently, with the price of Oil moving higher almost daily…    And the 10 -year added 3 basis points to its early morning yield yesterday, ending the day with a 4.18% yield. 

yes, the higher yield in the 10-year is helping to support the dollar right now… So, do you think the folks at the Treasury and the bond boys ever get together and talk?  Because it sure looks that way to me! 

In the overnight markets last night… There was just a tad of slippage in the dollar as the BBDXY has lost just less than 1 index point.. .So, basically flat if you will… The currencies have all been subjected to the dollar bugs buying over and over again, and their (the currencies) all look tired and worn… This could be a signal to buy a currency that’s down and out, for it’s bound to come back, once the dollar selling begins… Gold is up $4 in the early trading today, and Silver is down 18-cents… Silver was bound to see some profit taking after its recent surge in price, so I have to think that this is just a correction in Silver, and it will pick up again either later today, or tomorrow… So, use this morning’s sell off to back up the truck… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil has surged higher again and trades this morning with a $77 handle… Nothing new here, just the same old Red Sea gauntlet, and Oil buyers looking to buy elsewhere or pay the piper for a roundabout delivery…  And bonds are biding their time, trading with a 4.16% yield this morning. 

And there was this bright bit of news (NOT!) in Woflstreet.com this morning, “The portion of the $4.7 trillion in U.S. commercial real estate debt that will come due this year – and in theory must be paid off through a sale, refinanced, or extended to avoid default – has ballooned from $659 billion to $929 billion, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today.

The reason the loan maturities ballooned in 2024 from the initial figure of $659 billion to $929 billion today is that many loans that matured in 2023 and were supposed to be paid off in 2023, were in fact not paid off.

Instead, the loans have been modified and extended into 2024 and others were extended further into the future, the MBA said in its report today. The dollar amounts reflect the unpaid principal balance as of December 31, 2023.”

Chuck again… This CRE market has become a Nightmare on Elm Street… and looks scary to me folks… this is a market that’s going to see a lot of pain, and tears in the coming months, and a few defaults will be thrown in for good measure… I’m just saying… 

Remember when I made a BIG DEAL out of the Bank of Japan’s Gov. saying that “when the BOJ hikes rates”?   And thought that it would be so good for yen and bad for the dollar to see Japan get out of the negative yields policy… But, so far, this has not come to pass… And it appears to be yet another false dawn by the BOJ… A head fake, if you will… And I think the yen traders now see this all unfolding and have taken to selling yen again… The yen is trading with a 149 handle this morning, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to 150… 

The euro remains a currency in waiting… What is the euro waiting on? C’mon you know what… The euro needs the dollar to be weak for it to move higher… At the end of the year 2023, it appeared that we were heading into a period of time where the dollar would be weaker, but the PPT and their treasure chest of funds, bought dollars to start the year, and the dollar bugs haven’t looked back since…  

And everyone, not just the crybabies here in the U.S., but all over the world were respective Central Banks hiked rates to combat high inflation are starting to sound like spoiled brats, and throwing a temper tantrum in the Grocery story aisle, because they can’t get their Central Bank to cut rates fast enough… Yes, inflation as weakened from its high, but prices are still high, everywhere, and inflation has shown that it’s sticky and not going anywhere… So, here’s memo to the likes of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of Australia… Don’t fall victim to the calls for a rate cut… I think you’ll find that by not cutting rates that inflation continues to be squelched… And isn’t that what you want? 

I guess that’s the question… Do Central Banks around the world really want to squelch inflation? Or, like here in the U.S., the elite that run the country, need inflation to inflate away the debts…  And that’s the same mantra for the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, folks… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this morning has the STUPID CPI… I would say that sans any input from the administration, this STUPID CPI report will show an uptick in inflation during Jan…  I talked about this report a lot yesterday, so not wanting to sound like a broken record, I’ll just add that another uptick in inflation will put another nail in the coffin of a rate cut as early as May… 

To recap… The dollar didn’t move much yesterday or overnight, with just a bit of slippage in the BBDXY… I think most dollar traders were waiting for the STUPID CPI report today to give them direction for the dollar. The Commercial Real Estate (CME) is in dire straits (and not the band!), and Chuck believes that there will be lots of angst and tears in the coming months in this market… Can you say, default?  I think you had better acquaint yourself with the word, because we’re going to see it used a lot in the coming months… 

For What It’s Worth…  This came to me from longtime reader, Bob… and it talks about how the U.S. is becoming a lawless society… I’ve got to say to that, I hope not… But given what I’ve seen in the city of St. louis these past few years, it could very well become to pass…  This article can be found Here: Chaos Reigns In The Streets Of America As An Epic Crime Wave Terrorizes The Nation (blacklistednews.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “f you were hoping that the United States would become a lawless society, you have now gotten your wish.  Some of the numbers that I am about to share with you are just mind blowing.  For example, I had no idea that police in New York City were injured by criminals thousands of times last year.  All over the nation, law enforcement is losing control and violent criminals are getting the upper hand.  We have never seen anything quite like this before, and I am entirely convinced that this crime wave is only going to get worse as economic conditions deteriorate.  Even in our capital city, crime is completely and utterly out of control.  If you can believe it, the number of carjackings in Washington D.C. was up 97.9 percent last year…

Residents of the District of Columbia paid the sixth-highest amount on car insurance when compared to the 50 states in 2023 with an average annual full-coverage rate of $2,756 last year – which amounts to nearly $230 a month, according to a report by Insurify. The report found that Washington, D.C., residents’ car insurance premiums were 37% higher than the national average, which was $2,019 for a full-coverage policy, as national auto insurance rates increased by 24% last year.

Police data show carjackings in the nation’s capital spiked by 97.9% in 2023 with 958 reported carjackings last year compared to 484 in 2022, with motor vehicle theft up 82% from 3,756 in 2022 to 6,829 in 2023. Vehicle theft in the greater Washington-Maryland-Virginia area also rose by 68% last year, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau.

Vehicle theft is even worse in some areas along the West Coast.

In Oakland, approximately one out of every 30 residents had a vehicle stolen from them in 2023…

Robberies grew 38% last year in Oakland, according to police data. Burglaries increased 23%. Motor vehicle theft jumped 44%. Roughly one of every 30 Oakland residents had a car stolen last year, according to a San Francisco Chronicle analysis.”

Chuck again… You know, I used to explain to my kids, when they used to listen to every word I said, that the thing that make the U.S. better than 3^rd world countries is that we are a nation of laws… And People follow the laws, and that keeps society on the Up and Up…   We need laws, to make society work… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 12/13/2024: American Style: A$ .6523, kiwi .6114, C$ .7435, euro 1.0783, sterling 1.2673, Swiss $1.1376, European Style: rand 18.8493, krone 10.4774, SEK 10.4221, forint 359.09, zloty 4.0085, koruna 23.4497, RUB 91.35, yen 149.34, sing 1.3444, HKD 7.8176, INR 83.01, China 7.1936, peso 17.09, BRL 4.9552, BBDXY 1,241.86, Dollar Index 104.06, Oil $77.38, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $22.90, Platinum $906.00, Palladium $937.00, Copper $3.72, and Gold… $2,028.30

That’s it for today… Today is the birthday of my very good friend, Duane… Happy Birthday Dewey!  And it was also the birthday of my oldest sister, Brenda, who we lost many years ago to cancer…  And it’s also Shrove Tuesday!  Or Fat Tuesday for all you non-Irish people!  I’m going to ask Kathy to make me a stack of pancakes this morning! Last Saturday was the Soulard Mardi Gras parade and celebration in the Soulard neighborhood of St . Louis… This is a HUGE parade and celebration and quickly became the 2^nd largest Mardi Gras celebration only behind New Orleans…  So, no meat on Fridays for 6 weeks for yours truly… Down here it’s pretty easy to keep with the program with all the fresh fish that’s available… So, once again, Happy Birthday, Dewey! And The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their great song: I Wish It Would Rain…   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please oh please, oh please, Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies drift back and forth…
• What’s China & Russia up to now?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well… Congratulations to the  Kansas City Chiefs, for they won the Super Bowl last night… The NFL Champions for 2023…  I had a bad weekend, stomach-wise, Darn Chemo! Kathy got home from her whirlwind week, late last night, just in time to see the 4^th QTR of the Super Bowl, as if she cared! My favorite Chicago song greets me this morning: Hard Habit To Break… 

Speaking of hard habits to break, that sure is the mantra for the dollar bugs. The dollar got sold by 2 index points in the BBDXY on Thursday last week, and then on Friday it gained 2 index points…  The dollar bugs just couldn’t bear to see two days of dollar selling, so they pulled up their collective bootstraps and bought dollars again. 

I don’t know what bug crawled up the pants of the short Silver paper traders last week, but they were absent in the trading pits, and they must have been more concerned with what was in their pants…  Silver gained 38-cents on Thursday last week, and followed that up with a 6-cent gain on Friday… I know that I’ve talked about how there’s been a shortage in Silver for years now, and it has never really been brought to the markets… 

That’s one of the reasons that all these people writing about Silver keep talking about how Silver will outperform Gold this year… Take that with as many grains of salt as you deem it deserves…  Gold didn’t fare too well late last week… Gold gained $1 on Thursday, and lost $9.90 on Friday.  Silver ended the week at $22.69, and Gold at $2,025.40

The price of Oil jumped higher on Thursday, by $2, and then sat back and rested on Friday, thus ending the week trading with a $76 handle.  And bonds? The data last week be it massaged and cooked, gave the bond boys a reason to think that rate cuts will come much later this year, and the 10-year ended the week with a 4.17% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night… There was some additional slippage in the BBDXY overnight with it losing 3 index points… Here we go again… I’ve talked about this until I’m blue in the face, but it needs to be talked about when discussing the dollar. And that is…  That the PPT (plunge protection team) has a treasure chest of funds, called the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), and they use that to buy dollars every time the dollar appears to be at the edge of Wiley coyote’s cliff…  But this is, the ESF, is not a replenished Fund… Sooner or later the well will run dry, and the dollar bugs will be just like Wiley Coyote, when he runs off the cliff and his legs are still churning, before he realizes that there’s no ground under his feet…   Uh-Oh… 

Silver is back on the rally tracks again this morning gained 31-cents in the early trading, which brings Silver up to $23.00… Gold, can’t seem to find a bid these days, and is down $4 to star the day/ week this morning.  Silver has room to run, and it does appear to me that Silver will outperform Gold this year, but keep in mind that in the last few years, Gold has outperformed Silver, so Silver has some catching up to do… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit and trades just below $76 this morning… And bonds, well, I’ve talked about bonds quite a bit lately, and there’s nothing new here… The 10-year trades with a 4.16% yield to start the day/ week, this morning. 

I told you last week that this is an election year, and that we had better examine all Gov’t reports for accuracy… The numbers will be getting massaged and cooked, and fabricated with lies, damn lies… 

One of the pieces of data last week that got massaged and cooked was the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  Here’s what I’ve seen regarding the numbers: 

OK, regarding the Data Cupboard late last week… On Thursday, I wrote, that I’ve been reading about all these layoffs and job cuts across the country, I wondered when they would begin to show up in the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… Well, it wasn’t last week!  Ed Steer picked this up and provided some data, of which I’ll share with you here… First things first, here’s what’s been reported – in the real world labor market – in 2024…

1. Twitch: 35% of workforce

2. Roomba: 31% of workforce

3. Hasbro: 20% of workforce

4. LA Times: 20% of workforce

5. Spotify: 17% of workforce

6. Levi’s: 15% of workforce

7. Xerox: 15% of workforce

8. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce

9. Wayfair: 13% of workforce

10. Duolingo: 10% of workforce

11. Washington Post: 10% of workforce

12: Snap: 10% of workforce

13. eBay: 9% of workforce

14. Business Insider: 8% of workforce

15. Paypal: 7% of workforce

16. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce

17. Docusign: 6% of workforce

18. UPS: 2% of workforce

19. Blackrock: 3% of workforce

20. Citigroup: 20,000 employees

21. Pixar: 1,300 employees

And here’s the government-supplied statistics…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first-time last week dropped from 227k to 218k (below the 220k expected). On an NSA basis, claims tumbled even more…”   from Ed Steer’s: www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

Chuck again…  Well, it IS an election year, from here on out we can depend on one thing, and that is the Gov’t reports will be cooked, massaged, and had so many hedonic adjustments added to the actual numbers that the report doesn’t look anything like it did when they started their Broom Hilda, boiling cauldron antics…  I’m just saying…  

Everyone is talking about the Tucker Carlson interview with Russian President, Putin…  I want to get this straight right from the get-go… I’m no Putin cheerleader, I don’t trust the man, and that’s all because of my upbringing, which included not liking Russians because they could nuke us at any time. But I have to say one thing about the interview, and that is Putin answered each question without trying to spin and change the subject, like so many politicians do… And for that… kudos… But C’mon Vlad, stop this war! 

Well, it appears that Russia and China are getting very close to coming out with the news that they will issue their respective currencies backed by Gold… This will be a nuclear bomb in the financial markets, folks… Can you imagine the damage to the currencies, including dollars, that aren’t backed by Gold?   This has always been my thought for China that they would back the renminbi with Gold… Russia has joined in with their determination to ruin the dollar’s reserve currency status… Well, backing your currency with Gold would do the trick… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty, and starts the week that’s chock-full-o-data, out slowly… But tomorrow we’ll see the STUPID CPI for Jan… The markets are so “into” the STUPID CPI that they are convinced that this data set sways the Fed Heads… Memo to the markets… The Fed Heads aren’t fooled by the STUPID CPI!  Later this week, we’ll see Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and more, so there’s no hiding place for the dollar this week, as I’m of the opinion that all of these reports this week won’t be good for the dollar bugs… 

To recap… It’s been a wash, rinse cycle going on in the markets… The dollar gets sold one day and gets bought the next day… Silver is the shining star these days, let’s hope it keeps shining… Chuck points out that it is an election year, and therefore all the Gov’t reports will be shady at best, and gives an example of a Gov’t report last week that looked very shady… And Chuck throws a grenade from Left Field this morning  with his call that China and Russia are planning to issue their currencies backed by Gold.. 

For What It’s Worth… In a case of What in the World are you Thinking, for Who’s Going To Pay For This?  are the questions you’ll be asking yourself after reading the FWIW article today…  It’s about canceling medical debt, and can be found here: Connecticut becomes 1st state to cancel medical debt for eligible residents | BenefitsPRO

Or, here’s your snippet: “Although the details have yet to be ironed out, Connecticut plans to forgive medical debt for residents during the first half of 2024. Gov. Ned Lamont recently announced the initiative on ABC’s Good Morning America.

“I think it’s really important that people have a sense that they can start building wealth of their own,” he said. “We’re making that easier for people to do. And the best way to start is to eliminate the debt you’ve got.”

The state plans to cancel $1 billion in medical debt by investing $6.5 million in funds from the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act toward a partnership with RIP Medical Debt to abolish approximately $650 million in medical debt for eligible state residents. For every $100 invested, RIP Medical Debt abolishes $10,000 of debt.

Connecticut residents would be eligible if their medical debt equals 5% or more of their annual income or if their household income is less than 400% of the federal poverty line. Residents affected by the initiative simply will be notified that their medical debt is eliminated. A contract has not been finalized, and a timeline for implementation has not been announced.”

Chuck again… if this piques your interest, then click the link above, and read the whole article, for it talks about other plans to cancel debt in this election year… 

Market Price 2/12/24: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .6130, C$ .7431, euro 1.0772, sterling 1.2617, Swiss $1.1425, European Style: rand 19.0181, krone 10.5131, SEK 10.4268, forint 359.80, zloty 4.0127, koruna 23.4146, RUB 91.14, yen 148.95, sing 1.3445, HKD 7.8199, INR 83.00, China 7.1936, peso 17.05, BRL 4.9552, BBDXY 1,242, 28, Dollar Index 104.13, Oil $75.95, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $23.00, Platinum $888.00, Palladium $911.00, Copper $3.67, and Gold… $2,021.30

That’s it for today… that was an exciting Super Bowl Game last night, eh? The game started slow but built to a crescendo for sure! The Chiefs have built a dynasty… It will be more difficult every year on out for them, as they will have the target on their backs…  Well, we’re down to 2 days until Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training! YAHOO! I sure hope the weather gets back to normal for down here, for the start of the baseball spring season… We did have a beautiful weekend down here, now let’s keep that going! Both my college basketball teams lost again over the past weekend.. Mizzou lost its 11^th consecutive game! And Stl. U Billikens lost again, UGH! Baseball can’t begin quick enough so I can forget about college basketball!  Brewer & Shipley take us to the finish line today with their great old song: One Toke Over The Line… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please! Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar drifts on Wednesday, but rallies in the overnight markets
• Doug Casey joins us for the FWIW article today…

Good Day.. And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! After Tuesday’s wipe out day, when I slept most of the day, Yesterday went great! No bleeding, no need for an afternoon nap, and kept all food down… All-in-all, a pretty good day for yours truly… I sat outside reading gathering up all the Vitamin D I’ve missed out on while the skies were cloudy! Tommy James and the Shondells greeted me this morning with their great song: Crystal Blue Persuasion… 

Well… I’m not going to go into a rant first thing this morning, so stay with me here, I’m back to regular programming… The dollar didn’t move much in the U.S. session yesterday, after losing 3 index points the previous night, the BBDXY remained at 1,241 all day… Gold lost  $2 in yesterday’s trading, and Silver lost 1-cents, so basically flat as a pancake (Head East)… The price of Oil bumped higher into the $73 handle, and believe it or don’t, the market makers absorbed the Treasury’s record breaking $42 Billion 10-year Treasury note…  The yield that was offered on the new 10-year was 4.09%…  That is somewhat lower than the level I thought the treasury would have to offer the bonds… So, surprise, surprise, surprise…  Now, we’ll have to wait-n-see the information that tells us who the buyers were… Don’t be surprised if you see a Gov’t agency aka The Fed/ cabal/ Cartel listed as a buyer…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had Consumer Credit (read debt), and in the 4^th QTR, Consumers added $50 Billion to the debit side of their personal financial balances…  As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel also issued a report that showed Americans’ credit card balances climbed to a new record high $1.13 Trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And didn’t I just highlight in a FWIW article that was about how U.S. Consumers and their Credit Card balances are delinquent?  So… doesn’t this spell for a major upheaval?  But what would you expect U.S. Consumers to do, the Gov’t does it…  Digs a hole with debt, and then just keeps digging…  The difference here is that The Gov’t can print money, you can’t… 

Well, at least legally, you can’t print money!    

In the overnight markets last night…. Well… I’m just tired of this back and forth in the dollar.. .After spending yesterday’s U.S. session, drifting, the dollar got bought in the overnight markets last night, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points… Gold starts today down $6… And Silver is up for once, 14-cents… I had a conversation with someone yesterday about Gold & Silver, and he asked me which one to buy? I told him that I like Gold, but everything I read talks about how Silver will outperform Gold this year… So, in the end, I didn’t tell him what he wanted to know… A typical politician, eh?  

The price of Oil has bumped higher again and trades this morning with a $74 handle…  the gauntlet known as the Red Sea, is till a factor in pricing of Oil… The 10-yr’s yield bumped higher overnight and trades this morning with a 4.13% yield.. .So, all those $42 Billion in 10-year Treasuries that were bought yesterday with a 4.09% yield, already show a loss this morning… I’m just saying… 

Well… this news came to me yesterday, no surprise, as I’ve been talking about this happening for over a decade now, and that is countries going away from using the dollar in the terms of transactions.  The latest to go away from using the dollar is Iran…  here’s the skinny: Iraq is moving in tandem with the BRICS philosophy as it banned eight banks from initiating transactions in the U.S. dollar. The Middle Eastern country is cracking down on the U.S. dollar months after it banned all cash withdrawals in the currency. Eight local banks are banned from accessing the daily U.S. dollar auction conducted by Iraq’s Central Bank. The local banks will no longer have access to the U.S. dollar reserves the country’s Central Bank holds. The move plays straight into the BRICS playbook where the alliance aims to stall the growth of the U.S. dollar… 

I recall when I first reported the formation of the BRICS… Back then South Africa hadn’t joined.. .it was Brazil, Russia, India, and China… The S came from South Africa… I also recall a reader responding to my making a Big Deal out of the formation of the BRICS, telling me that it wouldn’t last, and I shouldn’t be getting people all excited about something that won’t happen….  Well, guess who was right? ME!  

Remember when I told you that I believed that the problems with banks wasn’t going away? And then yesterday, friend, Rich Checkin, did a video on his thoughts about coming bank problems… And finally, the folks at www.wallstreetonparade.com  had this yesterday: “New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) closed out 2023 with a share price of $10.23. At the closing bell yesterday, its share price was $4.20 – a year-to-date decline of 59 percent. More pain is expected today as the credit rating agency, Moody’s, cut the regional bank’s credit rating two notches to junk after the market closed yesterday.

Moody’s noted in its downgrade that a third of the bank’s deposits lack FDIC insurance. Uninsured deposits were a key factor in the rapid meltdown of Silicon Valley Bank in March of last year as $146 billion in deposits attempted to exit the bank in the span of 48 hours, leading to the FDIC being forced to take the bank into receivership.”

Chuck again… Uh-Oh!  I’ll be sure to keep an eye on this developing story… 

The other thing that’s going to come back to haunt NYC banks, and other banks in large cities, is the Commercial Real Estate dark clouds that are hovering over these banks.  This is all a result of two things… 1. Covid… the offices went empty for a long time, and have never recovered, and 2. the large debt positions of these institutions… 

U.S. Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen, told lawmakers Tuesday that she had concerns about the exposure of some banks to commercial real estate. “I believe it’s manageable, although there may be some institutions that are quite stressed by this problem,” she said.

Chuck again… well we all know that Janet Yellen looks at the U.S. financial picture, economy, etc. with rose colored glasses… I’m just saying… 

Well, the Chinese New Year begins on Saturday… The year of the Dragon… Puff the magic Dragon lived by the sea, and frolicked in the autumn mist in a land called Hoanh lee…  Every time I’ve heard the Chinese new year being called the year of the Dragon, that silly song pops into my head, and begin singing it! UGH! 

Next week will be Shrove Tuesday… Feb. 13th… which also happens to be my good friend, Duane’s birthday!  I went to the grocery store yesterday to buy some frozen pancakes to have next Tuesday… We had some “gluten free” pancakes here for Delaney Grace, so I didn’t want to eat up her pancakes… .Shrove comes from the phrase “shotten down” or something like that, and in Ireland, they eat up pancakes to use up the lard, butter, etc used to make the Pancakes….  These are traditions, folks… And longtime readers know my love of Traditions! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, as the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… I’ve read a lot of articles this week about different companies announcing layoffs, and labor cuts… I wonder when those will begin to show up in these numbers? 

To recap… The dollar drifted throughout the day on Wednesday, after losing some ground the previous night, and then saw some buying overnight… C’mon dollar bugs, pick a lane!  UGH!   The all-time record size Auction of Treasury Notes went off without a hitch yesterday, which was surprising to Chuck… A NYC bank is in trouble, and teetering on collapse… 

For What It’s Worth…  Remember when I wrote about how the FBI had walked into a safe depository, and confiscated what was in each safe deposit box, even those boxed belonging to someone not wanted for anything? And then a year or so later I followed it up with a note about a couple who claimed that when their belongings were returned to them, they were short thousands of dollars?  Well, here’s Doug Casey with his thoughts on this raid, and seizure of safe deposit boxes, and it can be found here: service@internationalman.com  

Or, here’s your snippet: “International Man: Recently, the FBI raided 700 safe deposit boxes in Beverly Hills.

They opened and searched through the content of every single box, regardless of whether there was any probable cause that individual box owners had committed any crime.

The FBI then attempted to confiscate anything worth more than $5,000 through civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Again, this was regardless of whether there was any evidence of wrongdoing by the individual box owners.

What do you make of this story?

Doug Casey: This is another of many indications that the FBI is totally corrupt and out of control. There’s no indication the agent-in-charge was even reprimanded, much less fired. It’s just one agency, but the fifteen other Praetorian agencies are no better.

An even bigger problem is that the rule of law itself is dead. At this point, almost any federal agency can do whatever they want. If you don’t like it and want to fight them, it’s going to cost a ton of legal fees.

The federal government is now controlled by actual Jacobins. They’re inclined to engage in lawfare against citizens—especially those who don’t share their views.

What’s in it for them? When they perform a civil asset forfeiture, a certain percentage goes to the agency that does it.

That money can buy cop toys and training to pad their resumes. That gives them a personal incentive to do things that are, in fact, criminal. It’s a very serious matter. It’s only going to get worse when CBDCs are initiated—they’ll make civil asset forfeitures, fines, and asset freezes much easier when all your money is visible and available at the central bank. It’s one more reason to own gold—but not store it in a US safe deposit box”

Chuck again… yes, going to a digital currency will allow the Gov’t to confiscate your bank account, without question…  

Market Prices 2/8/2024: American Style: A$ .6521, kiwi .6101, C$ .7418, euro 1.0761, sterling 1.2602, Swiss $1.1440, European Style: rand 18.9743, krone 10.6227, SEK 10.4879, forint 360.15, zloty 4.0353, koruna 23.1333, RUB 91.38, yen 149.19, sing 1.3466, HKD 7.8208, INR 82.95, China 7.1966, peso 17.08, BRL 4.9772, BBDXY 1,243.38, Dollar Index 104.22, Oil $74.55, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $22.39, Platinum $888.00, Palladium $904.00, Copper $3.78, and Gold… $2,027.60 

That’s it for today… Well, we’re down to 6 more days till pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training… The Cardinals packed up their gear, and the trucks headed south earlier this week, so it’s getting close….  I can feel it… The start of Spring Training games, the start of the regular season, and Christmas all get me as excited as a kid in a candy store! So… Hey! The St. Louis U. Billikens finally won a game last night.. Their losing streak was beginning to get on my nerves!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost again at home last night to Texas A&M… UGH!  It’s been a very baaaadddd basketball season for these two teams, for sure!  Our Blues are on the All-Star Game break, and don’t get back on the ice until Saturday night.  I got to watch the Mizzou game on the iPad last night… reminds me of my grandparents tv screen… Small… Well, the Super Bowl is this Sunday… I’m not going to talk about who I think will win the game, because I don’t want to jinx them! HA! Go Chiefs!  My second favorite Chicago song takes us to the finish line today with their song: Beginnings…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… And please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver have good days on Tuesday…
• The dollar drifts on Tuesday, but sees some slippage overnight.

Good Day… and a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The gray clouds finally gave way to sunshine yesterday late afternoon, and I think that the full sun skies will remain for the rest of the week, warming up a little more each day! YAHOO! I passed the foreman here yesterday in the hall, and he was all bundled up, and he asked me how I was doing… I said, ” I didn’t come down here to wear sweatshirts!”  And so, I won’t!  Day 3 of being all alone here, didn’t turn out too good, as I felt like death warmed over, and slept all afternoon… But today’s a new day! The sun is making an attempt to come out of the ocean this morning, and I feel much better! The Kinks greet me this morning with their song: Sunny Afternoon…

Before I get started on the markets, have you heard what the gov’t is now installing all over to eliminate cash?  They are called Reverse ATM’s, and it’s how the gov’t will attempt to confiscate your cash… You put cash into the machine, and it spits out a debit card for the same amount of cash that was deposited… These machines are being installed at the Super Bowl right now!  Unsuspecting people, not paying attention to the machine, are going to be in for a surprise…   Since there will be no cash exchanged at ballparks all over the country, the debit card will be needed to buy that big foam finger., nachos, or whatever else you want at the ballpark! 

To me, this is outrageous, and can’t be stopped, unless someone puts their foot down and says no mas! The digital dollar is coming folks… And as Gandolf the White said, “Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.”   You know, if I didn’t have kids and grandkids all around me in St. Louis, I would split this country before things get heated, and out of whack…  I have this feeling that in 10 years’ time, all my kids will be back home with me, and all our 4 families will live together, scraping through each day to provide food and shelter to the young ones…  I know, I know, that’s all tin foil hat stuff, and nothing you want to hear about so early in the morning, but… I’ telling you now, so you’ll listen to me later, these reverse ATMS’s are the beginning of the end, of our financial system as we know it… 

Well, it’s a good thing the dollar didn’t do anything yesterday, since I started today’s letter with a rant…  Yes, finally, the dollar didn’t get bought on Tuesday, with the BBDXY finishing at 1,244… Same as the previous day. Gold found a way to eke out a $12 gain on the day. I say “eke out” because it was nip and tuck most of the day, with the short paper traders doing their bit to keep a lid on Gold, but finally Gold burst through all the noise, and rallied on the day… Silver was not treated nicely, and ended the day down 3-cents… I saw another outfit claiming that they knew Gold would rise to $2,200 and Silver would outperform Gold in 2024. Well, that’s what they wrote… Hopefully they don’t tell their clients that, they know Gold will rise to $2,200, they could get in some deep dookie doing that! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle yesterday, and I forgot to talk about bonds yesterday, and it’s a good thing I did forget because, Bonds reversed their trading on Tuesday that brought the 10-year’s yield to 4.16%, only to see it close on Wednesday at 4.09%… Maybe it was just a correction because the 10-year’s yield had jumped from 3.89% to 4.16% in a matter of days…  

In the overnight markets last night… Well there was a disturbance in the force… The dollar slipped a bit overnight, not much but the BBDXY is down 3 index points to start our day today… Just those three index points improved the health of the currencies quite a bit! The euro remains below 1.08, but the rest of the currencies have perked up, and don’t look so sad this morning.  Gold isn’t smiling to start the day though… Gold is down $2 to start the day, and Silver is down 19-cents…  Adrian Day, a financial analyst and writer, and longtime acquaintance, believes that investors will rush back to Gold once the metal reaches $2,100…  I like Adrian, and he’s normally bang on with his calls, so what will it take to get Gold to $2,100, from here?   

I would point to today’s refunding that the Treasury will have to deal with…  The Treasury will auction a record $42 Billion in 10-year bonds today…  That’s a HUGE amount of debt that will have to be sold today… Any problems with the auction could light a fuse under Gold, as a safe haven… We’ll have to wait-n-see, eh? 

The price of Oil remained in the $73 handle overnight, and there was a small disturbance in bonds, as the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.12% ahead of the auction… 

Well, our buddy, NOT!, Neal Kashkari, the President of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, Minneapolis, decided to give us his two cents on interest rates yesterday, let’s listen in: “There is no need to quickly lower interest rates because the level is not high enough to push down growth very much, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Monday.

“The current stance of monetary policy…may not be as tight as we would have assumed, The implication of this is that, I believe, it gives the FOMC time to assess upcoming economic data before starting to lower the federal funds rate, with less risk that too-tight policy is going to derail the economic recovery.”

Chuck again… Sounds to me like he’s been reading the Pfennig! 

So… $42 Billion in new 10-year Treasuries… I wonder what the avg yield will be tagged on these bonds? It will certainly be higher than the 10-year bonds that are coming due… Let’s see in Feb 2014, the Fed Funds rate was a paltry .07%, so that puts the 10-year’s yield around 2.66%…  This increase in the cost to service the bonds, will just be added to the national debt… We’ll have to borrow more to pay the interest (bond servicing costs)… As Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel President, Jerome Powell, said on Sunday night…  “The debt is growing faster than the economy, and that can’t be sustained.”… 

But the dollar continues to be the King of the Hill, it’s as if the dollar bugs have blinders on, and have decided that none of the ill winds that are blowing, are noting to worry about… Well, one day they’ll be no PPT to protect the dollar, and the dollar bugs will get their rear ends handed to them… I’m just saying…

Yesterday, I mentioned the Mexican Peso as the one currency that was holding its value VS the dollar, and I had two emails on that… 1. asked me why the peso was so strong, and I explained that with Mexico being an oil exporter, that the price of Oil helps support the peso, but more importantly, the Mexican Interest rates have finally reached a risk premium point that helps the peso…   2. this fellow had a different idea as to why the peso was strong, and here is his thought; “Mexico economy is booming as the government works with the cabals to generate billions on the immigration game.”

Chuck again… Ok, and I thought I was jaded!  Whew! I think I’ll stick with my thought on the peso… and let the other idea slide…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, has the U.S. Trade Deficit for Jan, and it’s expected to be around $62 Billion… With the dollar so strong last month, I would expect the expectation to be weak…   I guess we’ll see who’s right! We’ll also see the color of the Jan. Consumer Credit, read debt… yesterday’s Pfennig had me talking about this happening yesterday, but I must have looked at the calendar sideways, or just plain got it wrong! it’s a today data print! 

To recap… The dollar didn’t move yesterday, and maybe just maybe because you never know, the all-clear siren will sound today, and the Good Witch Glinda, will be saying, “come out, come out, it’s safe now”…  Gold fought through the short paper traders and gained $12 yesterday, while Silver lost 3-cents… Neal Kashkari said that there’ no need to cut rates so soon… Good for him!   Inflation is still all around us, and not going anywhere fast for sure! The overnight market saw the dollar get 

For What It’s Worth… Speaking of Consumer Debt… This news was troubling to me, and should be to you too… It seems that Consumers are delinquent in paying on the Credit Cards… This article can be found here: Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.

Debt that has transitioned into “serious delinquency,” or 90 days or more past due, increased across multiple categories during the year, but none more so than credit cards.

With a total of $1.13 trillion in debt, credit card debt that moved into serious delinquency amounted to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, a 59% jump from just over 4% at the end of 2022, the New York Fed reported. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said.

Delinquencies also rose in mortgages, auto loans and the “other” category. Student loan delinquencies moved lower as did home equity lines of credit. Overall, 1.42% of debt was 90 days or more past due, up from just over 1% at the end of 2022.

“Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.”

Chuck again… Yeah, but don’t tell Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen, who spouted off again yesterday, saying that the economy was strong, and they had defeated inflation… Yeah, and I’ve got a bridge to sell you Janet… 

Market Prices 2/7/2024: American Style: A$ .6522, kiwi .6101, C$ .7416, euro 1.0766, sterling 1.2629, Swiss $1.1463, European Style: rand 18.8987, krone 10.6137, SEK 10.4981, forint 359.90, zloty 4.0407, koruna 23.1819, RUB 91.15, yen 148.09, sing 1.3434, HKD 7.8205, INR 82.97, China 7.1948, peso 17.05, BRL 4.9594, BBDXY 1,241.23, Dollar Index 104.09 Oil $73.74, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $22.28, Platinum $903.00, Palladium $959.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $2,033.90

That’s it for today… Well, I heard from Kathy yesterday, and she told me that Evie and she were having a blast at Disneyworld… I wonder how that’s going, because little Evie can be quite bossy for her age, and Kathy is a hardheaded Dutchwoman… Those two butting heads would be a funny site to see!  Only 7 days till Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training… I have a number of seats at Roger Dean Stadium here in Jupiter, and when the kids are here, that works great, but when they aren’t here, I have to post them for sale… Sales aren’t going as well this year, as they were last year… But some people don’t make plans to come down here until the last minute, so hopefully, I get them sold…  Van (the man) Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his great 70’s song: Moondance… ( I love this song!) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will you please Be Good To Yourself?   

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals get sold on Monday
• Jay Powell is a day late and a dollar short…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A real crappy day weather-wise here yesterday, with a cold front that came through, and temps were so abnormal to S. Florida… UGH!  There’s not a lot more I can say about the BLS’s lies and videotape from last Friday.  So, we’ll move along, and try to put it in our rearview mirror, and watch it get smaller and smaller as we drive away. I didn’t leave the condo yesterday… And that’s very strange for me, given I always prefer to be outside… Blood, Sweat and Tears greets me this morning with their great 60’s song: Spinning Wheel… 

So, how many of you watched Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jerome (Jay) Powell on 60 Minutes Sunday night? If you did, did you hear him talk out of both sides of his mouth?  First he said, “the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path” in a “60 Minutes” interview with Scott Pelley released Sunday.

And then had the audacity to say, ““The U.S. federal government’s on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. I don’t think that’s at all controversial, when he was asked if the debt was a danger to the economy…  Wait, What? on one hand he said the debt was on an unsustainable path, and on the other hand, it’s no big deal…   That’s Fed Speak folks… And in my years of deciphering Fed Speak, I find that Jay Powell, realized he had upset the apple cart when he said the debt was unsustainable, and then tried to water it down by saying it was no big deal…   A real two-handed economist… 

Then Jerome Powell followed that talk over the weekend with this ditty yesterday, “Fed’s Jerome Powell says it’s past time for an ‘adult conversation’ about unsustainable fiscal policy.”

Ahem… excuse me for butting in here Jay, but… You’re a dollar short and a day late on that comment! The time to have the adult conversation about the debt was $25 Trillion ago, when I first started pointing out how bad our debt picture was… 

So, you would think that come Monday morning, that the markets would take what he said about the debt being unsustainable, to heart, and begin to ratchet back all the gains the dollar had made on Friday… But NOOOOOOOOO! The dollar continued to get bought on Monday, and bought all day long, with the BBDXY gaining 6 index points by the time the day ended. The currencies all look sick, and I mean ill-sick, not the other kind the way the kids use sick… And just when it appeared that Gold was ready to run higher once again… Friday’s engineered takedown, led to yesterday’s follow up $17 loss… That’s $32 of loss that Gold has taken on, since the BLS’s lies and videotape Friday mid-morning.  And Silver has lost 55-cents the last two days… All have been brought to levels that way below any moving avg. that matters…  

Higher and longer, the new way we describe interest rates here in the U.S. has really taken a toll on bonds… These guys just couldn’t get it through their thick heads that the Fed Heads were NOT going to cut rates in March… They were so all about getting ahead of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… And now they’ve had their rear-ends handed to them, once again I might say, but then what else would you expect, when you don’t listen to Chuck?  HA! 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, I was up late last night, don’t know why, just turned out that way, and before I went to sleep land, I checked the overnight markets, and the dollar was getting sold, with the BBDXY showing a 4 index point loss at that time… So, this morning I half expected to turn on the screens and see the dollar down overnight, but NOOOOOOO! The BBDXY is up 1 index point this morning, so somewhere, someone, some institution bought dollars, and kept the pressure on the currencies.  

Most of the currencies are taking defensive stances at this point… There’s one currency that is holding its own against the dollar’s strength… And it is the Mexican peso… Go figure… When all the currencies that aren’t pesos, are getting dragged through the mud, the peso shines… 

Gold is up $3 in the early trading this morning, and Silver is down 15-cents… I don’t know what else to say about the metals other than to do 1 of 2 things… 1. batten down the hatches, 2. look for buying opportunities… The short paper traders even took a pound of flesh from Copper yesterday… You know, the metal that’s so short, that adding short trades, makes abundant sense… NOT! 

The price of Oil is up a buck this morning… The slashing of Oil’s price that went on late last week, was something unforeseen by me ahead of time… I really thought that with the U.S. retaliating against the terrorists causing all the problems in the Red Sea, and the report I read last week that talked about Oil importing nations are now looking elsewhere for Oil that doesn’t need to go through the Red Sea gauntlet… 

For all you folks out there that are digital coin fanatics, U.S. Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen, wasn’t giving you any warm and fuzzies yesterday, when she spoke before Congress… Yellen was quoted as saying that ” the crypto industry poses several potential hazards to the financial system, including the dangers of stablecoins, runs on crypto platforms and volatile prices”, according to a brief portion of her testimony posted Monday.

Yellen is appearing before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday to explain the latest work of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), a group of U.S. financial agency heads that the secretary leads. The council, which is meant to head off the next financial crisis before it happens, has paid special attention to crypto risks in recent years, putting them among the top categories of potential worry.

Chuck again… I found that perusing through Google yesterday… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the services index that doesn’t move markets… And Consumer Credit, read debt, fell from $23 Billion to $15 Billion in January… So, it must have been a fun Christmas this year, eh? 

There’s nothing in the Data Cupboard today, except for 4 different Fed Heads speaking in different cities… 

To recap… Monday’s price action followed Friday’s meltdown of currencies and metals…  And overnight there was more dollar buying… Jerome Powell, said the U.S. debt was unsustainable, but then followed that up with a comment about how the debt is not a big deal…  Yeah, and I’ve got bridge to sell you Jay!  He also said it was time to have an adult conversation about the debt… Chuck points out that the conversation about the debt should have taken place $25 Trillion ago!  And Janet Yellen didn’t place any leis on the digital currencies crowd yesterday… 

For What It’s Worth… Speaking of the debt… The U.S. Treasury dept, had some very disheartening news for us yesterday, and this article talks about that and the refunding problem coming for the U.S. and the article can be found here: The US has a $6 trillion problem over the next twelve months | Schiff Sovereign

Or, here’s your snippet:”Yesterday the Treasury Department announced that they expected to increase the national debt by a whopping $760 billion this quarter alone… and another $202 billion next quarter.

In short that means almost $1 trillion added to the national debt just in the first half of this year. And, again, these are the Treasury Department’s own estimates.

Obviously, that’s a pretty horrible result; even a senior Treasury official acknowledged that they have “significantly increased” their bond sales and the national debt. Not that they’re doing anything to stop the trend.

But there’s an even greater risk that the Treasury Department faces this year that is hardly being discussed anywhere.

Over the next twelve months, more than $6 trillion in existing US government debt is set to mature… and will need to be paid back somehow.

So, to give you an example, back in 2014, the federal government issued $264 billion in 10-year Treasury notes.

Well, it’s now 2024, i.e. ten years later. Meaning that $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.

In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year.

You get the idea. The point is that the total sum of Treasury Bonds, Notes, and Bills outstanding that will become due and payable this year exceeds $6 trillion.”

Chuck again… Well, add the $6 Trillion to what will probably be $2.5 Trillion in new debt this year, and then add in the fact that the buyers of our debt that were around 10 years ago, probably don’t have the same appetite for U.S. debt now…  What will we do?    Stay bat tuned, same bat time, same bat channel, for more in the future… 

Market Prices 2/6/2024: American Style: A$ .6491, kiwi .6050, C$ .7384, euro 1.0724, sterling 1.2542, Swiss $1.1450, European Style: rand 18.9893, krone 10.7039, SEK 10.6307, forint 361.37, zloty 4.0593, koruna 23.2620, RUB 90.91, yen 148.78, sing 1.3459, HKD 7.8230, INR 83.05, China 7.1896, peso 17.10, BRL 4.9741, BBDXY 1,240.24, Dollar Index 104.55, Oil $73.19, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $22.35, Platinum $904.00, Palladium $962.00, Copper $3.78, and Gold… $2,026.90

That’s it for today… Well, I’m not sure that today’s weather will be much better than yesterday’s… But it will get warmer soon, and then I’ll forget about all the gray skies, wind and rain! I guess I shouldn’t have complained about yesterday’s weather here, given the way the state of California is getting hammered by the Pineapple Express, a river of rain that has fallen and caused major flooding…  I read this morning that my beloved Cardinals were packing up the gear to head to Spring Training yesterday…  That was always a sign for me that baseball wasn’t far away… And today, there’s only 8 more days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training!  And this is the first reminder for you that next week is Valentine’s Day… hint, hint… The Beatles takes us to the finish line today with their song: And I Love Her…   a pretty song… and one of my faves…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself… 

Chuck Butler

• BLS cooks up a number that sends the currencies & metals to the woodshed.
• Pfennig Replies are back!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a doozy of a Jobs Jamboree number the BLS game to us last Friday! I’ll talk more about the BLS in a bit…  But first… I’m here all by myself for the next 6 days, as Kathy has gone home to gather up little Evie and take her to Disney World… It’s always very quiet when she’s gone, as I’m not into rattling pots and pans… vacuuming, and moving furniture… I just exist…  This is Super Bowl Week, as all the hype for the game will begin, and build toward the start of the game… I heard a player say last week that the Conference Championship Games were the last real football of the year, as the Super Bowl is about Commercials, and parties… I don’t know if I agree with that, but… I do love the Super Bowl Commercials!  Hamilton, Joe, Frank and Reynolds greet me this morning with their song: Fallin’ In Love… 

Well, well, well, what a tangled web we weave, eh? First of all, last week, the ADP Employment Report said that only 107,000 jobs were added in January… And that was just fine… But then along came the BLS and their surveys, which obviously differed greatly from the ADP’s actual books… The BLS said that 353,000 jobs were created in January! OMG! How can those two reports be so different?  Well, one is real (ADP) and one is made up (BLS), and that accounts for a lot of the differences between the two.. I just wish the markets would stop using the BLS report and just use the ADP Employment Report… I’ve said this before, but ADP supplies the payroll systems for just about every company in the country, they SHOULD KNOW the jobs created each month! 

The thing I’ve always pointed out that was more important than the number of jobs the BLS creates out of thin air, is the avg wages… And this report points to higher wages,(+4.5%, which was probably made up too!) and that leads into wage inflation, and that news knocked the stuffing out of Gold on Friday… Because that news isn’t going to move the Fed Heads to cut rates any time soon…  Gold is supposed to be an inflation fighter, so why would the threat of higher inflation cause it to get sold? Because, these days, I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quarter tones (Jackson Browne) , traders only care about one thing, interest rates… UGH!  

So… The dollar on Thursday last week, got sold, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points… And then on Friday morning, the dollar was getting sold some more, losing 2 more index points, until the BLS came out with their made-up jobs numbers… And all of the dollar’s losses leading up to the BLS report were erased and the dollar was back to being the king of the hill… Yes, Gold had gained $15.50 on Thursday, and was up another $5 early Friday morning, but those are just notations now, because Gold ended the week down, after another engineered takedown, Gold lost  $14.60 on Friday to end the week at $2,040.20… Silver saw much of the same, losing 25-cents on Thursday, and another 42-cents on Friday to end the week at $22.75…  There’s not much I can say other than that this is the same-0, same-0… The PPT steps in and buys dollars to drive the dollar’s value higher, and the short paper traders use this fake background, to engineer takedowns in Gold & Silver…  The only silver lining here is that the buying opportunities at cheaper prices is in place now. 

A little more on wage increases…  There was a chart that I saw on Friday, that showed that the costs of living were rising a much higher rate than wages… If you go to my website: www.dailypfennig.com, you’ll see the chart in the Pfennig letter…  I find this to be very telling in that no one, and I mean on one, other than the usual suspects, like me, David Stockman, Doug Casey, etc. will point this out to the masses… I just wish that I still had the number of readers that I used to have, the message would then get out there on a broader basis… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, there’s been no sanity brought to the markets yet, as in the overnight markets the dollar was bought like Tickle Me Elmos…  The BBDXY is up more than 4 index points this morning, and after last week dropping to 1,220, it now sits this morning at 1,239… The PPT must be very proud that they scared the bejeebers out of traders who wanted to take the dollar lower last week… And then the stupid BLS jobs report really did a number on the currencies and metals.  Gold is down $17 early this morning, and Silver is down 25-cents… Oil is down to a $72 handle, and the bond boys got a shot of reality last week, and the 10-year’s yield is back up to 4.10%…  It’s that time again… to batten down the hatches and wait for this all to fly over… 

I’m at a loss for words to describe how I yelled at the wall behind my writing table on Friday…  I’ll tell you what I think happened with the BLS report… First and foremost, the BLS saw that there were revisions to their made-up numbers in previous month. That revision was 121,000…  Oh-no! We can’t show that and keep our jobs! So, they began to fabricate the number of jobs that were created…  I’ll repeat that ADP only showed 107,000 jobs in January, and somehow, after putting the numbers in a boiling pot, and adding an eye of newt, and a strand of Dorothy’s hair, the BLS stirred and came up with a number, that the markets took hook, line and sinker! 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to throw this out there for anyone thinking the NFL had gone too far with publicizing the Taylor Swift attending games… It was reported on Friday that:   Taylor Swift has added about $330M in brand value to the Chiefs and NFL.  You know, I’m not a fan of her music, I’m too old for that, but I do admit that she did more for the U.S. economy last year with her tour, than anyone! 

And more my style of music… Saturday was the day that the airplane, carrying Buddy Holly,  Ritchie Valens, and The Big Bopper were killed in plane crash (1959); You know, the day the music died…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week, has already been drug through the mud, so we refocus out sights on this week’s data cupboard, and quite frankly there’s not a whole lot to look at this week… We will get the pleasure of listening to 9, yes 9 Fed Heads speak this week… It will be Fed Head speaker-palooza! 

To recap… Friday, last week was very ugly for all asset classes, with the dollar the clear winner, winner, Chicken dinner… ADP said there were 107,000 jobs created in Jan, and the BLS said there were 353,000 jobs created in Jan. Who was right? Well, that doesn’t really matter, because the markets believed the BLS BS… The dollar got bought hand over fist, and everything else got sold… Currencies, bonds, Oil, stocks, were all thrown under the dollar’s streaking bus.. 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to make a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT regarding the Pfennig… Well, I am now snugly in the arms of Battle Bank… And guess what? The Pfennig Replies button may not show up yet, but it’s fixed, and if you send a reply to: dailypfennig@outlook.com, I’ll see it! YAHOO! It’s been a month of Sundays since this was fixed, and I’m so grateful to Jason at Battle Bank for making that happen!   So, write that down: dailypfennig@outlook.com… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve highlighted, longtime friend, Bill Bonner’s letter from time to time through the years, and yes, they’ve changed distributors through the years, but one thing that remained the same, is Bill’s ability to put into words, what we all have been thinking…  His letter can be found here: bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com 

Or, here’s a snippet of last Thursday’s letter that I found great: ““Information” is not the same as “energy.” Take away the energy and billions of people die.  

But take away the Information Revolution and what happens? That would only send us only back into the 1980s. We’re old enough to recall the “World Before the Internet” and what we remember about it was this: it wasn’t bad. Maybe even better.

Cometh the Revolution

The things that mattered – the things we could feel, see, hear, and taste—were very similar to those we have today. We lived with central heating and air conditioning. We ate food that came from all over the world. We laughed at ourselves and others. We watched TV for amusement and read the newspapers for information. All in all, it was a satisfactory time.

Cometh the Information Revolution…after 1990…and things generally went downhill. Growth rates went down. Debt went up. Wages went nowhere. Our politics became disagreeable and dysfunctional. And we couldn’t laugh the way we used to – so many things were off-limits.

And somehow, with all that information at our fingertips we lost track of things we had known for hundreds of years – you can’t spend your way to prosperity…and you can’t bomb your way to security. The Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations tried to do both.”

Chuck again… I agree wholeheartedly with Bill on this!

Market Prices 2/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6596, kiwi .6058, C$ .7418, euro 1.0752, sterling 1.2569, Swiss $1.1502, European Style: rand 18.9629, krone 10.6546, SEK 10.5768, forint 358.39, zloty 4.0283, koruna 23.0193, RUB 91.30, yen 148.50, sing 1.3460, HKD 7.8219, INR 83.06, China 7.1975, peso 17.17, BRL 4.9788, BBDXY 1,239.11, Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $72.00, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $22.50, Platinum $907.00, Palladium $954.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2.023.90

That’s it for today… no football this past weekend, well no games, there were the shenanigans at the Pro-Bowl… This is the time for college basketball to shine… But there are not juggernaut teams any longer… I find myself just going past games that don’t mean anything to me… My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost again on Sat. as did the STL U Billikens…  And hockey? Well, I’m down here and I seldom get an opportunity to watch the Blues, so… Well, there are only 9 more days till pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training!  Friday was Groundhog day, and in honor of that day, I watched the movie again… Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring on Friday… For whatever that’s worth!  I used to work with a woman that adored Groundhog Day and would have a party each year on that day! Jim Croce takes us to the finish line today with his song: Hey Tomorrow… We lost Jim Croce too early in life, he had much more great music to share with us… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• dollar remained stuck in the mud on Wednesday
• Powell tells the markets inflation is still too high…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Friday is Ground Hog Day… I sure hope Phil will see his own shadow, thus forecasting 6 more weeks of winter… I really don’t care, because I’m down in S. Florida, but for my kids and grandkids back home, it matters to them! There’s only 14 more days till pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training… I took a ride over to the ballpark yesterday to see what changes that proposed last spring were taking place, and what to my wondering eye did appear… nothing new! They haven’t dug a hole or put a stake in the ground yet! I don’t know why nothing has been done yet… but it hasn’t and that’s that!  I was up all night long with bleeding in my mouth again, so I’m in no mood to Tub Thump today! Steely Dan greets me this morning with their great song: Do It Again… 

Well, the FOMC met yesterday, and Jay Powell, told the markets that they needed to get with the program that The Fed Heads were not cutting rates in March! But that didn’t change the minds of the bond buyers, who took the 10-year’ yield down to 3.94% yesterday…  The dollar didn’t move, and once again it finished the day with a 1.236 figure in the BBDXY index…  So, that meant that the currencies didn’t move either…  The Bank of England meets today, so maybe they’ll be ready to announce before I finish this letter this morning.  

Gold ended the day unchanged from the previous day… $2,037.90… And Silver was only down a penny, at $23.23… So, all the teeth gnashing, and hand wringing over what the Fed Heads were going to do, led to nothing… In The markets, that is,  except bonds, remained uninterested in the goings on… I’m still of the opinion that the Fed Heads have their hands in the cookie jar, with regards to the 10-year’s dropping yield… But they won’t tell us they are stealing cookies, we’ll have to do some under hood checking… more on that at a later date… 

The price of Oil dropped 50-ecnts yesterday and ended trading with a $76 handle.  The POTUS said he had come to a conclusion what he will do about the strike on the U.S. base camp that killed 3 soldiers, but he’s not going to tell us what that is… So… figure nothing…   And I think that’s why the Oil price dropped yesterday, because things will remain status quo in the oil region… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar finally moved, after a week stuck at 1,236 in the BBDXY, the BBDXY gained 2 index points overnight to finally push the dollar off of 1,236.  the currencies are all down VS the dollar this morning, except, Indian rupees… go figure.. The currency that’s been stuck trading with an 83 handle for a month of Sundays, finally moved to an 82 handle… I wonder for how long?  The price of Gold is down to start the day today by $4, and Silver is up 3-cents.  Oil still trades with a $76 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield is still at 3.94%, awaiting for more Fed buying, in my humble country by opinion.. 

Well, before Jay Powell took the mic yesterday, and told the markets to get with the program… There was a survey that was done, and it said that “The Fed will cut rates fewer times and start them later than market hopes, according to CNBC Fed Survey’… here are some of the highlights of the survey:

Only 9% of CNBC Fed Survey respondents see the central bank cutting rates in March.

Futures markets give a March cut a 37% probability.

Futures markets have priced in between five and six rate reductions this year, while Fed survey respondents, on average, see just a bit more than three.

Well, maybe the masses get the message, but the bond boys? They refuse to admit they were wrong… The markets will make you pay for being wrong too long… I’m just saying… 

And to carry this discussion a little further… There was a report yesterday that the U.S. Treasury to issue over $1 Trillion in gross new debt in the 2^nd QTR…  Now, we’ve been through this before, but I’ll go through it for all the new readers, The number of buyers of our debt is dwindling… And therefore, there are not many buyers lined up at the auction window when the Treasury puts the bonds out there…  The only way they will attract enough buyers is to jack up the yield to entice them to buy…    So, why are people buying bonds now, when higher yielding bonds are around the corner? 

Well, inflation in the Eurozone fell again in January going to 3.2% from 3.8% in December… The two largest economies in the Eurozone, Germany & France were the leaders of the drop in inflation, and this got the markets all lathered up about a potential rate cut in the Eurozone… I’m saying that if the Fed Heads see that inflation is still too high, to warrant discussing rate cuts, then the European Central Bank will follow the Fed Heads lead… So, do youself a favor over there in the Eurozone, don’t fall for all the hype…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ADP Employment Report for Jan yesterday, and it showed that only 107,000 jobs were created this month… That’s down from a revised downward 158,000 in December.   Yesterday, I told you that the job openings had risen to over 9 Million…  Somehow the math doesn’t work here, because people don’t want to work any longer…  Anyway, it didn’t move the markets one iota…  And stocks? When you would expect the stock jockeys to be all upset that the Fed poo-pooed rate cuts so soon, stocks rallied…  I shake my head and wonder how this will all play out… after the everything bubble pops! 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for last week. In addition, the 4^th QTR Productivity report will print, and I’m expecting this number to plummet…  And finally, we’ll see the color of the ISM Manufacturing Index for Jan… Thinking back to the regional reports we’ve seen this month and all the negative indexes that were printed, I sure don’t see any way that the ISM will rally… I’m just saying… 

To Recap… The dollar remained stuck in the mud yesterday, and for a 5^th day it remained in the 1,236 figure in the BBDXY Index. The FOMC, and their leader, Jay Powell, tried his best to tell the markets to get with the program that inflation was still too high, and there would be no rate cut in March… Did that turn the minds of the Bond boys?  No… I don’t know what it will take to get them to see things my way… 

Well, The elites’ boondoggle at Davos Switzerland is over now, and there were two highlights from the boondoggle, one was new Argentine President Javier Milei’s speech, and the other was the speech by the Heritage Foundation’s: Kevin Roberts… Both of them will probably not be invited back, as they pointed to the the crowd and told them they are the problem…  I’m proud to be a member of the Heritage Foundation, and proud of Kevin Roberts for what he stood up for at Davos! 

For What It’s Worth… I found this yesterday morning, and wanted to put in yesterday’s Pfennig, but it was already out the door… This is the Felony King himself, talking about our gov’t debt… And it can be found here: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says US government debt will lead to market rebellion | Fortune

Or, here’s your snippet: “The global economy is approaching the point of no return courtesy of mounting government debt, believes JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and it will lead to a massive falling-out of markets and federal institutions.

Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023.

And although some of the shorter-term economic signals are flashing green—inflation is coming down, the Fed may by eyeing rate cuts, and employment is staying stable—the boss of America’s biggest bank isn’t convinced there isn’t a major red flag up ahead.

Speaking on a panel alongside former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan at the Bipartisan Policy Center last week, Dimon said the American government is facing a “hockey stick” effect when it comes to government debt.

He drew on the comparison of the 1980s for context, explaining that in 1982 unemployment was at around 10% while the stock market had sat stagnant for 15 to 20 years. Even with the Vietnam War, America’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 35%, Dimon said, whereas today it sits at 100%.

“Back then the deficit during a recession—you do spend money in a recession—was 4% or 5%; today it’s 6.5% in a boom time,” Dimon continued.

He added: “If you look at that 100% debt to GDP by [2035] I think it’s going to be 130%, and it’s a hockey stick. That hockey stick doesn’t start yet but when it starts, markets around the world…there will be a rebellion.”

Chuck again.. Ok, those uplifting word are brought to you by Jamie Dimon, you know the leader of the bank with the most felony charges, including a RICO charge leveled against his bank… 

Market Prices 2/1/2024: American Style: A$ .6519, kiwi .6089, C$ .7433, euro 1.0808, sterling 1.2655, Swiss $1.1590, European Style: rand 18.7453, krone 10.5174, SEK 20.4227, forint 354.51, zloty 4.0095, koruna 23.0302, RUB 90.45, yen 146.95, sing 1.3408, HKD 7.8204, INR 82.91, China 7.1821, peso 17.25, BRL 4.9628, BBDXY 1,238.28, Dollar Index 103.63, Oil $76.26, 10-year 3.94%, Silver $23.03, Platinum $930.00, Palladium $1,005, Copper $3.85, and Gold… $2,033.52

That’s it for today, and this week, of course! Well, after the week of full sun and warming temps, we’re supposed to get another front down here this weekend, with rain… UGH!  Rainy days always get me down… Karen Carpenter sang about how Rainy days and Mondays always got her down… Me, a Monday is a Monday, no biggie, but rainy days ruin my agenda! Oh well, you’ve got to suffer through the rainy days to fully enjoy the sunny days!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost on the hardwood again last night this time to ahem… Arkansas! I got to watch the game of course, they lost! Oh well, tomorrow is Gound Hog Day, which is also the title of one of my fave movies… Andie MacDowell, was always a fave of mine!  Al Wilson takes us to the finish line today with his song: Show And Tell… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler