Author: admin

• An ugly day for the currencies & metals comes to an end…
• The BOE cuts rates!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my trip to the heart & Vascular Center yesterday, brought me nothing new, and the hospital told me to go home, and not come back! We’ve decided to postpone the heart surgery procedure they suggested I do a month ago, and I’m good with that decision! The doctor was pleasantly pleased at my progress and my weight loss… So, for once in a blue moon, i walked away feeling good about the direction I was heading….   Wild Cherry greets me this morning with their song: Play That Funky Music…

Now, that’s a seat dancing song!  Wild Cherry was a one-hit wonder…  But that one-hit was a Big One! 

Well, the ugliness in the markets yesterday didn’t stop all day… The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Gold was sold like Tickle Me Elmos a few years ago….  At the end of the day, the BBDXY had gained 13 index points, Gold had lost $72, and Silver had lost $1.37,  and all that we had worked for was laid out for us all to see the mess….  This was outrageous, if you ask me….  I had a dear reader write to me and ask me what was going on, and I replied that “I believe this is profit taking by the Big Boys, you know, like hedge funds, etc. with some short paper trades thrown in, just to remind us that they are still there”….  

These Big Boy units are different than we are, folks… They are what I call “short-term buyers”, and Gold was never a part of their “core holding”, as if they ever have a “core holding”….  So… If I’m correct here, the profit taking will end sometime soon, and we’ll pull up our bootstraps and get back to work in selling dollars and buying currencies and metals…. 

The nearly $36 Trillion debt is still out there folks… And the U.S.’s ability to service that debt is still in question, without turning on the printing press again….  And to remind us of all that is one of my favorite analysts in the world… Stephanie Pomboy, who was being interviewed by Kitco.com and had this to say: 

Pomboy also pointed to vulnerabilities in the banking sector, noting that banks are sitting on “500 billion dollars on unrealized losses. That’s not going anywhere. It hasn’t been cured.”

She believes these losses have not been adequately addressed and could pose a significant risk to the financial system.

“This debt and deficit are the existential threat to our economy and the dollar hegemony,” she said. “This is a doom loop – with higher interest rates mushrooming out our deficits, essentially bringing forward the day of reckoning.”

Chuck again…  So, if you battened down the hatches yesterday and didn’t panic, I think you”ll end up very happy you did, because this will all come back to meet the problems just like it did previously… 

The price Of Oil bumped higher yesterday, after its initial onslaught to $69, and recovered to end the day trading with a $71 handle… And the 10-year’s yield leapt higher, to 4.44%….   The 4.50% I called for before Christmas, doesn’t look to far-fetched now does it?

In the overnight markets, the selling stopped in the currencies and metals…  The BBDXY has given back 5 index points this morning, and Gold is up $13 to start the day…  I really didn’t think all the selling was going to stop until the week came to an end, but it does appear that it has stopped now….   Silver is up 12-cents this morning, and the currencies were taken of their life support mechanisms…. 

The price of Oil slipped back to a $70 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield saw some buyers to bring the yield down to 4.41% to start our day today….

Well, the Bank of England (BOE ) finally bit the bullet and cut their interest rate 25 Basis Points this morning…  The BOE had resisted the temptation to cut rates for some time, but finally succumbed to the pressures that were mounting on them by the markets…  This bodes well, for my call that the FOMC will cut rates today, thus keeping it a close-knit group…. 

I mentioned yesterday that the two countries, Japan and China, had seen the worst of the selling as their countries are front and center in the raising of tariffs on their exports…   And that will cause the prices of everything we buy from these two countries rise… So, more price pressures are coming folks…  Get ready for them because this should come as no surprise…  Our Trade Deficit should move upward again, and become a real problem, to go along with the current Debt…  

And money supply? Well, I see this as increasing again, and causing more inflation, but don’t let me spoil your breakfast this morning, although, just looking at what happened yesterday would spoil anyone’s meal! 

So, the opportunity to buy at cheaper levels is still prevalent in the currencies and metals this morning, but do not procrastinate!  If this all goes the way I see it going, these cheaper levels won’t be around too long… 

There aren’t too many articles out there this morning that talk about the economies, etc. It’s all about how the markets will react to Trump 2.0….  I say, “how do they know”  So, any way, I’ll just go to the Big Finish and get this out the door…

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims this morning… Look for the layoffs from Boeing to affect this data….  And then this afternoon, after all the board games have been put away, the Fed Heads and their FOMC will adjourn the meeting and hold a press conference to tell us what they did, or didn’t do…  As I said above, I believe the FOMC will cut rates 25 Basis Points (1/4%) and will not dare to cut rate 50 Basis Points like they did the last meeting…  

To recap… It was a very ugly day yesterday for the currencies & Metals…  But the sky appears to be clearing…. Reminds me of the great Johnny Nash song, about how “I can see clearly now, I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind” Chuck reminds us that all the problems that existed before the election are still there, and need to be addressed…  And Steph Pomboy visits the Pfennig today! 

For What It’s Worth…  This is an article on Zerohedge.com that talks about how the Social Security Admin. Finally came out with their report on labor for 2023 and the finding is awful and it can be found here: Goodbye Middle Class: Half Of All American Workers Make Less Than $43,222.81 A Year | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: he Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering.  

According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81.  In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81.

 That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.  More people are being squeezed out of the middle class with each passing day, but most Americans don’t even realize that this is happening because the media isn’t really talking about it.

Poverty, homelessness and hunger are all growing all around us, and if we stay on the path that we are on the middle class will continue to be systematically eviscerated.

Once upon a time, the vast majority of the country could afford to live a middle class lifestyle.

But now those days are long gone.

A study that was recently released found that it now takes more than $100,000 a year for a typical U.S. household to live “the American Dream” in all 50 states, and in 29 U.S. states it takes more than $150,000 a year…

A household would have to spend more than $150,000 a year to live the dream in 29 of the 50 states, according to an analysis published in April by the personal finance site GOBankingRates.

According to the report, the optimal American lifestyle would cost $137,842 a year in Ohio, $147,535 in Texas, $159,932 in Florida, $194,067 in New York and $245,723 in California.

The state that has the lowest cost of living is Mississippi.

Living the American Dream only costs $109,516 a year in that state.

Needless to say, someone earning $43,222.81 a year is not going to be able to live the American Dream anywhere in the nation.”

Chuck again…  I was flabbergasted to see how low that number was…  We, as a country, need to get the middle class back to working good jobs again, The middle class is the engine of the economy, and needs to be on terra firma!

Market Prices 11/7/2024: American Style: A$ .6642, kiwi .5997, C$ .7197, euro 1.0777, sterling 1.2958, Swiss $1.1429, European Style: rand 17.5898, krone 10.9179, SEK 10.7739, forint 375.79, zloty 4.0138, koruna 23.4585, RUB 97.85, yen 153.78, sing 1.3252, HKD 7.7723, INR 84.37, China 7.1575, peso 19.93, BRL 5.6956, BBDXY 1,264, Dollar Index 104.69, Oil $70.91, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $31.35, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,034.00, Copper $4.35, and Gold… $2,673.96

That’s it for today…  Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers get back on the field, Saturday with a game against their old Big12, Big8, rival, Oklahoma…. OU has joined the SEC now, so the Tigers will play them more often again… With no baseball on TV at night, I’m lost!  But it is what it is, so I carry on….  There will be NO Pfennig on Monday, as I will be seeing my oncologist bright and early… The next time we’ll talk is on Tuesday next week…. Well, maybe now, all those political texts and phone calls will stop… And I will be able to watch college football on Saturday without someone calling someone a liar, etc.   YAHOO!  Well, it’s almost time to turn on Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station, so from here on out I’ll be talking about the tunes being played there….  But for today, Ducette takes us to the finish line with his song: Mama Let Him Play….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get whacked overnight on the Trump 2.0 victory
• yen and renminbi get the worse of the selling…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Well, the election/ voting is over and now we wait for official results, and then the parties reaction to them… It does appear that we’ll have Trump 2.0..  I really don’t want to deal with all of that, so I’ll just say NO! I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of talking about who won what…. I’ll let others do that, and I’ll learn from their mistakes, for I could never live long enough to make them all myself! The Killers greet me this morning with their hit song: Somebody Told Me…. 

Somehow, someway, someone, decided yesterday, to save the dollar from falling off the cliff… That someone had to be the PPT, because of the way the dollar reacted, with the BBDXY gaining 6 index points on the day… A large move upward without economic data to boost it, without one Presidential nominee taking hold early, without any Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit. And don’t forget that the FOMC begins their 2-day meeting to discuss interest rates, today…  I can hear the getting the board games out to pass the time…. Monopoly, anyone? 

I truly expect the FOMC to cut rates now… I was on the fence about this rate move yesterday, but after a day of thinking about this, to come to this conclusion….  Sop, that would normally be bad for the dollar, and that’s another reason for the PPT to come in and boost up the dollar….  They saw the FOMC cutting rates, and the dollar getting sold, and the PPT wanted to give the dollar a buffer… 

Gold found its way through the gauntlet of short paper traders yesterday, and ended up gaining $7 on the day to close at $2,743.50… Talk about working its way through the gauntlet of short paper traders, Silver ended the day up 15-cents, but a mile away from its intraday high… Tsk, Tsk…  Those darn short paper traders, really know how to ruin one’s day, eh? 

Well, Oil and bonds don’t seem to be keen to the Trump 2.0 scenario… The price of Oil was sold lower by $1.50 to a $70 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.43%….  I read where the writer thought that bonds would be subject to tons of supply, coming up and that’s why the yields are rising again, in the face of FOMC rate cuts… 

In the overnight markets last night… OMG! This is really outrageous!  Traders are trading with their emotions this morning… The overnight traders bought dollars and bought dollar, and bought dollars until the BBDXY was up 12 index points, and the euro was looking sickly again…  But, that’s not all… Gold is getting sold in the early trading and is down $65 to start our day, and Silver is down $1.20….  There ae some short paper trades being made in this, but for the most part this is trader sentiment about how the next 4 years will go…. 

I’m still concerned that there will be problems with the transfer of power here… There have been quite a few quotes by Democrats that they will not allow Trump to set one foot in the White House…  And for that reason alone, I’m surprised that Gold is getting whacked… Let’s hope that’s all ill wind blowing and not real game plans….

Think about this… What has Trump preached during his campaign?  That interest rates should be lower…  And that tariffs of imports will be his number one revenue source…  Well, lower interest rates should be manna from heaven for Gold, and higher costs for goods here will push the Trade Deficit to new heights and cause tons of money supply to be on tap, which will push prices higher in inflation, and that should be manna from heaven for Gold… So… Why the negative reaction, has befuddled me, this morning…  

Speaking of tariffs… The two countries that are on the list of countries that will see the highest tariffs, saw their currencies get whacked Big Time… The Japanese yen and Chinese renminbi, saw their respective currencies get sold down the river last night, and I doubt the selling will stop there… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty this morning… There’s nothing there, zip, zero, nil, a big Goose Egg…  And there’s really not much the rest of the week, and that bothers me…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The BIG Unknow became known last night, as it appears that Trump won the election… I know, it’s not official yet, but Trump 2.0 appears to be on the horizon, as long as he is not contested by the opposing party… This news has traders going bananas… Gold is down $65 this morning, and Silver is down $1.20… What gives?  Well, Chuck does his best to explain why this doesn’t make any sense this morning… 

For What It’s Worth… This FWIW article is a little different from what I usually look for, but  I liked it so there’s that! This is an article about how the shutting down of our Central Bank has been done by a president before, and how it was done, gives us clues about how to go about dismantling the Fed… And it can be found here: How Andrew Jackson Freed America From Central Bank Control—and Why It Matters Now (internationalman.com)

Or, here’s your snippet:”But it happened once—in 1835—thanks to President Andrew Jackson. He was the first and only president to pay off the national debt completely.

One biographer says the former president viewed debt as a “moral failing,” a sort of “black magic.

When he became president, Jackson was determined to rid the U.S. of its national debt. After all, debt enslaves you to your creditors.

Jackson knew that being debt-free was essential to independence. This outlook resonated with many Americans back then.

With that in mind, Jackson attacked the institutions and powerful people who promoted and enabled the federal debt. This included the banking elites and the Second Bank of the United States, the country’s central bank at the time and precursor to today’s insidious Federal Reserve system.

While campaigning against the evils of national debt and central banking, Jackson miraculously survived an assassination attempt when an assassin’s two pistols both misfired. Shadowy interests tied to the central bank were almost certainly behind the effort.”

Chuck again…  As usual that was just a snippet, if you want to read more then click the link above… Spoiler alert, you’ll have to sign up for the newsletter to read it all… UGH!

Market Prices 11/6/2024: American Style: A$.6568, kiwi .5950, C$ .7181, euro 1.0709, sterling 1.2862, Swiss $1.1462, European Style: rand 17.7151, krone 11.1164, SEK 10.8918, forint 382.94, zloty 4.0617, koruna 23.6633, RUB 98.08, yen 154.24, sing 1.3348, HKD 7.7763, INR 84.28, China 7.1746, peso 20.55, BRL 5.7824, BBDXY 1,274., Dollar Index 105.28, Oil $70.02, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $31.44, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $1,038, Copper $4.27, and Gold… $2,678.13

That’s it for today…  Well, how long was your line at the polls? I had very nice people around me in line, and they kept pointing out chairs that were ahead and telling me to go sit and they would allow me back in line when they got there…  My hip thanked them over and over again! Note to self… Next election, wait until after 8:30 am when everyone is back at work after voting! And I fell asleep much earlier in the evening that usual, so I didn’t have to watch the election results… I recall the last election going to bed thinking that candidate A had won, only to find out the next morning that wasn’t the case… So, no surprises this year, and that’s much better!  I see a heart specialist this afternoon… I wonder what she has up her sleeve?  Nothing I hope, much like Bullwinkle would find! HA! Doucette takes us to the finish line today with his song: Mama Let Him Play….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The Big Unknowns begin to weigh heavily on the markets…
• Gold & Silver try to be good today….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I’m back from performing my civic duty, which quite frankly has become a burden to me… But that’s a discussion for another day… It’s akin to picking which poison you want to suffer from…. But, I carry on… (Kansas) I couldn’t remain awake to the end of the football game last night… I see here this morning that the Chiefs won. in overtime…  Thin Lizzy greets me this morning with their song: The Boys Are Back In Town… 

Well, there were quite a few people that had the same thought as me, regarding when to go vote this morning… And it was raining cats and dogs! But that didn’t stop them all…  But I persevered, and got my “I Voted” sticker for my efforts…  Well, yesterday, the dollar was getting osld down the river in the early morning, but as the day went on, it came back a bit, and the BBDXY ended down 5 index points on the day, instead of the 7 it was down earlier… The currencies all look better, but remain in their respective sick beds… The best performing currency the last two days is the Chinese renminbi… Now that sounds strange, doesn’t it?  The euro is back to knocking on the door to 1.09… So, that’s a close second place… 

Gold closed trading yesterday only up $2 on the day, at $2,737.60, and Silver closed down 49-cents at $32.32… As usual the short paper traders do more damage to Silver than to Gold, but there’s no prize for that… The Price of Oil remained with a $71 handle in trading yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.30% throughout the day… 

I found this on Kitco.com this morning and thought I would share it with you: ” Gold has been the shining star in the commodity space, as prices have rallied roughly 33% so far this year, trading near recent record highs of $2,800 an ounce. However, analysts at the World Bank suggest that silver is the precious metal to watch in 2025.

The World Bank recently released its updated commodity market forecast. While gold is expected to continue outperforming the broader sector, the latest projections show analysts anticipate weaker demand next year through 2026,”

So, add Kitco.com to the list of outfits and people that are calling for Silver to be the metal to watch in 2025…  And unless Silver gets a wild hair, it’s not going to make it to $50 before year end, as one pundit that I quoted a week or so ago, forecast… 

In the overnight markets last night… We crept ever so closer to the Unknown last night, and the dollar didn’t fare too well, as the BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight… The euro creeps so close to the 1.09 figure that it could spit in the 1.09’s back yard!  That’s an old country saying, that I’ve always enjoyed, so if you don’t like it, fuhgeddaboudit! The metals are trying to be good today, with Gold up $8 to start the day, and Silver gaining back the 39-cents it lost yesterday…  The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to 4.32%…  

Well, once again this morning, the articles are all about the election or what someone thinks will happen if X wins or Y wins…  I did find this on Bloomberg.com that explains yesterday’s trading a bit: “In recent weeks, investors have been betting on a Trump win, positioning for his low-tax and high-tariff policies to boost both growth and inflation. Those bets helped push the dollar gauge to a four-month high last week and sent yields on 30-year Treasuries to their highest since July, creating a steeper yield curve.”

This is going to be a real knock-down, drag-out event, the election… So, hold onto your hats, and prepare for some social uprisings… With folks not happy about what they will feel is a rigged victory…  I hope to heck that this all goes peacefully…  But given what I’ve read about, there’ little chance that will happen. So like I said, hold onto your hats, this will be a wild ride…

The poor stock jockeys are shaking in their pants or pant suits this morning…  And well they should be… This Big Unknown is weighing heavily on the economy, stocks, and is waiting to unleash a ball of hell at the dollar should the outcome of the election become contested….   

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Rocktober Factory Orders, and they printed negative again, this time at a negative -0.5%… Again, another fly in the administration’s claim that the economy is booming…   Today’s Cupboard has some 3^rd tier economic reports, and tomorrow’s Cupboard is empty, so Factory Orders is all we get until Thursday… 

To recap… The dollar was getting sold down the river yesterday morning, but in the U.S. trading it came back just a tad, but still down on the day… Gold & Silver were mixed with Gold up and Silver down… UGH!  short paper traders just won’t let Silver alone…  And traders are reversing their Trump Trades, according to Bloomberg, as the traders don’t fell as confident in a Trump victory…  

For What it’s Worth…  Well, all the talk by the POTUS and Janet Yellen (Treasury Sec.) that the economy is booming… This article disputes that and is full of facts that I believe, far more than the talking heads, and it can be found here: Retail Stores Closing at a Pace Not Seen Since Pandemic (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “While President Biden and talking heads in mainstream media talk about the amazing robust economy, retail stores are closing at a frenetic pace.

According to Coresight Research, 6,189 stores have already closed in 2024. That puts retail store closures at the fastest pace since 2020, when government shutdowns decimated the retail sector.

Some of the major chains shuttering stores include Walgreens (259 stores), Family Dollar (677 stores), Big Lots (360 stores), and LL Flooring (all stores).

Conn’s HomePlus, Rue21, and Express have also announced closures.

According to S&P Global, more than 80 companies that sell discretionary goods had filed for bankruptcy through September. That represents a 27 percent increase from 2023.

The restaurant sector is also feeling the pain. Red Lobster, Roti, Tijuana Flats, and Buca di Beppo have all filed for bankruptcy this year, closing hundreds of restaurants. Denny’s recently announced plans to shutter 150 restaurants.”

Chuck Again, but I know it’s too late baby, now it’s too late (Carol King) but do we as a country want to continue with the failed economics that have led to these closings? I’m just saying…. 

Market Prices 11/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6627, kiwi .5998, C$ .7205, euro 1.0896, sterling 1.2989, Swiss $1.1590, European Style: rand 17.4389, krone 10.9758, SEK 10.7089, forint 375.39, zloty 3.9955, koruna 23.2478, RUB 97.90, yen 152.07, sing 1.3169, HKD 7.7712, INR 84.11, China 7.1077, peso 20.11, BRL 5.7863, BBDXY 1,256, Dollar Index 103.73, Oil $71.89, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $32.81, Platinum $1,002.00, Palladium $1,191.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $2,745.77   

That’s it for today… Get out and vote, if you want to complain about all this in the future…  Todays is my daughter, Rachel’s birthday! Happy Birthday, Sunshine!  Rachel is one of those people that have a and celebrate a birthday month!  I hope your day is grand, Rachel!   As long-time readers know, I don’t like using the words “in-law”… So, Rachel is my daughter, period! It was a rainy day yesterday, and that reminded me of a restaurant/ bar downtown years ago that would have specials on rainy days and Mondays… The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: I Wish It Would Rain… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and election day, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butlee

• Currencies & Metals get whacked on Thursday last week…
• But rally in the overnight markets last night….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I had a great Halloween, celebrated with neighbors around a fire pit and listening to lame jokes from the Trick-or-treaters… Friday, we got fried fish from the legion hall, and half the kids were here… I lost another tooth, to the tumor that keeps spreading in my mouth… I may have a work around for that, soon, more later… The Cornelious Brothers and Sister Rose greet me this morning with their song: Too Late To Turn Back Now… 

Well, it was an awful two days to end the week last, for Gold & Silver…  And the dollar, which was falling by bits and pieces until Friday, saw the BBDXY gain 6 index points on Friday… The Big News from Friday, was the jobs jamboree…  In a report that was already expected to be down, from last month, the BLS reported that there were only 12,000 jobs created in Rocktober…  Yes, there was the Hurricane, that disrupted the creation of jobs, but there was also the labor impasse at Boeing…  The report was supposed to be around 110,000 down from 233,000 the previous month, so somewhere in the calcs, they lost 100,000 jobs that were supposed to be created in Rocktober… 

I don’t know what this does to the proposed rate cut by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel….  it could exacerbate it, or it could get them to want to wait until they get a clear picture of labor… (Not that they can ever really get one of those given the BLS trumped up labor reports) 

The dollar bugs were all over the report thinking that the Fed Heads will want a clearer picture of the labor market, and therefore postpone the rate cut… I guess we’ll all find out later this week when the Fed Heads get together for a two-day meeting after the election… 

Gold & Silver got whacked by a Mack Truck of short paper trading on Thursday last week… Gold lost $43, and Silver lost $1.14… It was an ugly day, for these two metals… And one that I quite frankly had started to believe was in the past… But NOOOOOOOO!  Gold then followed up Thursday’s whacking by losing $7.90, and closing the week at $2,735.40, and Silver lost 20-cents on Friday to end the week at $32.41… 

I could go on util I was blue in the face talking about the how the short paper traders brought Gold & Silver to their knees on Thursday, but I won’t… I’ll just move along, because there’s nothing, I can do about it, and besides I don’t need to be getting my Blood Pressure spiking! 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle to end the week, and the 10-year’s yield continued to rise, ending the week at 4.39%… Remember what I said about the 10-year’s yield rising to 4.50%…. On its way! 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, proving once again that Friday’s lunge in the dollar was nothing more than PPT interference, as the dollar plunged again in the overnight markets… The BBDXY is down over 7 index points this morning, as the toss-up election is weighing heavily on the dollar…. Why? Because, as I’ve told you for years now, Traders do not like unknowns… And tomorrow’s election is a BIG UNKNOWN!  Gold recovered a bit overnight gaining $7 in the early trading. Silver has gained 39-cents to start the day… So, these buyers don’t care about the unknown, they just know that whoever wins will continue the spending spree, and ramp up inflation… 

On Bloomberg.com they just can’t seem to get the story right regarding why Gold got whacked last Thursday… They seem to think that it was traders taking profits, after Gold hit a new all-time high…  $43 dollars of profit taking? C”Mon give me a break! This outfit, and Kitco.com just won’t got down the dark side road, that points out manipulation…  But i do! So, you can thank me later for that! HA! 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to trade this morning with a $71 handle… Seems our friends (NOT!) at OPEC announced that their output/ production hikes will not take place for the time being…  And then Iran began to talk about revenge VS Isarel, and that really got Oil moving higher…  And the Fed must have been in the bond market this morning, because the 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.30% overnight…  The Fed Heads had to be shocked and awed when they saw the 10-year’s yield rise to 4.39% last Friday…. I’m just saying… 

I don’t have any other articles to share with you this morning, as all the news is about the election tomorrow, and what to expect… Which I find to be silly, since no one really knows that to expect…  So, we’ll just head to the Big Finish and go from there today…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has Rocktober Factory Orders this morning, and then it goes dark until the 7th, when the two-day FOMC meeting adjourns…  I’m still on the fence about the FOMC meeting this week… On one side I see the FOMC cutting rates again, and on the other side, I see the FOMC waiting for a clearer picture of the labor market…   

To recap… The dollar got extra help to end the week last week… The PPT must have been in to prep the dollar ahead of countdown time for the U.S. election that has many unknowns, and has the dollar running for cover this morning…  Gold & Sliver got whacked last Thursday, but are back on the rally tracks this morning…  The FWIW article goes through the chances of a heated/ contested transfer of power and that’s a BIG UNKOWN! Welcome to November, my most disliked month… UGH!

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this dabbles a bit in the political ring, but in the end, it’s about how all the problems could spell disaster for the dollar, and it can be found here: Election-Violence Risk Threatens US Dollar Dominance – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “he scenario of another contested presidential race riven by violence looms as an unpriced risk for investors who have long counted on US institutional integrity as a foundation for the nation’s economic strength.

Owning the world’s dominant currency has helped hold down US borrowing costs and the prices of commodities from oil to iron, along with conferring the geopolitical power of cutting American rivals out of the global financial system. Underpinning the dollar’s dominance, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and their predecessors: the rule of law and institutions that transcend individual politicians.

Here’s Why Dollar Dominance Is In Question

In the countdown to US election day, one fear that’s looming for some investors is a degradation of that respect. It comes amid doubts about former President Donald Trump’s willingness to concede should he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump not only continues to insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him, he recently claimed that the 2021 transition was “love and peace” despite the historic storming of the US Capitol by his supporters. The insurrection resulted in death and destruction in the American legislature’s main building.

The biggest fear this time around: a fundamental reappraisal by global investors of confidence in US institutions. That’s in the context of the US being the largest net debtor in the world, a reflection of the trillions of dollars foreign governments, funds and individuals have plowed into the $28 trillion US Treasuries market and $61 trillion stock market, along with corporate bonds and other securities.

“If there’s a real question about the effective peaceful transfer of power, it could be very unsettling — not just for our investors but the business and economic activity here,” former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on a Zoom call organized by the Business & Democracy Initiative Wednesday. “The strength of the dollar does depend on respect for our economy, for rule of law, and very importantly” on the Fed retaining its independence, he said.”

Chuck again.. And I wish, and hope and pray that we have a peaceful transfer of power all the way through to the certification on Jan 6…  James Rickards doesn’t think it will work out peacefully… And fears of a contested election, has the dollar on the skids this morning…  And as far as Gold Goes this morning, there’s an old saying the markets that is: “Buy the rumor, sell the fact”… And I think this is what has Gold on the rally tracks this morning… 

Market Prices 11/4/ 2024: American Style: .6608, kiwi .5990, C$ .7190, euro 1.0908, sterling 1.2983, Swiss $1.1582, European Style: rand 17.5313, krone 10.9596, SEK 10.6777, forint 374.08, zloty 3.925, koruna 98.72, RUB 98.72, BBDXY 1,256.41, Dollar Index 103.69, Oil $71.44, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $32.80, Platinum $1.001.00, Palladium $1.104.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $2,756.42

That’s it for today… Now tomorrow… IF there is a Pfennig, it will be later than usual, as I will be at the Polls exercising my civic duty when the Polls open tomorrow morning… If I get in there and out in reasonable time, then I will get back here to write… If there are delays, then I’ll say “punt”…  What was the best lame joke you heard last Thursday?  I heard this one.. Where do you get dragon milk?   From a 3-legged cow!   OK, so that was the best one I heard, it was a weak year for wit…  The weather has been nice, chilly in the morning and night, and nice during the day… Well, it’s almost a month away… Alex and Grace’s wedding…  It’ll be on Pearl Harbor Day… I need for my health to remain strong for that day… Gerry & The Pacemakers take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Ferry Across The Mersey…  Funny, I mentioned Alex this morning, and that’s the song that I used to sing to him to get him to fall asleep when he was a toddler….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar finally gets sold…
• Gold rallies while Silver gets whacked…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  I’m ready, and willing, and able to do some Tub Thumpin’ today!  I was dismissed from seeing a nurse each week yesterday… My PT guy was impressed at how I ran through the exercises he gave me without a break… And I spent 1 hour on the phone with MDAnderson setting up my account all over again… The bad news was that they couldn’t see me until 12/19…. UGH!  Oh, well, it is what it is… I’m just hoping that a surgeon that I saw on Monday this week, and is willing to cut some of the bulk of the tumor out of my mouth, can work me in soon…  First, though, I have to get a new CT scan of my jaw… Los Bravos greet me this morning with their great 60’s song: Black is Black…. 

Well, yesterday I told you that the BBDXY had only gained 2 index points so far this week…. And yesterday, those 2 index points were given back… So, here we are 4 days into the week, and the BBDXY was still sitting at 1,261 at the close yesterday….  It appears to me that a consolidation is taking place…. Yes, no traders want to take any positions ahead of the elections, but at the same time, the dollar hasn’t moved…   I’m just saying, because…. I told you last week that the dollar was overbought… 

Gold gained $12 yesterday, but Silver was subjected to short paper trading that brought Silver down by 65-cents…  Gold closed yesterday at $2,788.00, and Silver at $33.86… It does seem that the short paper traders have drawn a line in the sand at $34.50… Silver has reached that level a few times in recent trading, and each time, it gets taken to the woodshed…. That can’t go on forever folks… So, back up the truck for the Silver dock now… I’m just saying….

The price of oil bumped higher two days in a row, and closed yesterday trading with a 569 handle…  And yesterday i mentioned that it looked to me like the 10-year’s yield was back to rising… And it followed through on that thought with the 10-year’s yield closing at 4.30%… I read a report yesterday that had a bond trader calling for a 4.50% yield before election day, which is next week!  That seems to quick for me, but then I’m an old bond trader that never saw volatility in bonds like we see these days… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, someone knows something that the rest of us don’t because the dollar lost more ground overnight… The BBDXY is at 1,258 this morning, down 3 index points from yesterday.  it could be a reaction to the dollar being overbought, but It had appeared to be something that was put off for another day, once the election was over… Whatever it is, the currencies love it…. The euro is driving toward 1.09 this morning, and the rest of the currencies all look like they can sit up in their sick beds… 

Gold is getting sold this morning in the early trading and is down $16, while Silver is getting whacked again and is down 45-cents to start our day today… I would say that the higher 10-year yield (4.30%) is having an affect on the metals, but it’s not like this is a “new thing”… Gold has rallied in the face of higher yields this time, so it’s not that… Must be short paper traders… Dirty b&$^(*^)s 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle overnight, and as i just said the 10-year’s yield is 4.30% this morning… 

Well, I didn’t answer the bell this morning, I was up a lot last night with bleeding in my mouth… I hadn’t had any bleeding for over a week, and had forgotten about how nasty it is…. But I finally got it to stop about 3:30 this morning, and went back to sleep… Sorry for the tardiness of the letter today!

It IS HALLOWEEN today! Boo! Last year on Halloween, the weather had turned bitter cold and so i couldn’t sit outside giving out candy to the little Trick-or-Treaters… This year will be different I think, according to the weatherman on TV! 

OK, enough of all that, Chuck, your dear readers didn’t open up this letter to read about the weather for Halloween! 

Recall me telling you that the euro was in trouble, because of the European Central Bank’s (ECB ) jawboning bout multiple rate cuts coming?  And then this morning, I look, and the euro is on the rally horse… What gives?  Well, as I’ve told you many times in the past, The euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and when the dollar gets sold, it matter not what’s going on in the Eurozone, the euro will benefit from the dollar’s weakness… 

I have Ed Steer for you this morning regarding Gold & Silver’s performance yesterday, take it way Ed! “Gold closed at yet a new nominal high on Wednesday — and would have closed even higher than Ait did, if it had been allowed to trade freely. However, it was allowed to close above the $2,800.00 mark by a hair in the December contract. It’s also back into overbought territory by a bit once again. But despite that new high, the gold stocks closed down on the day.

One other surprising thing about yesterday’s price action in gold and silver was the fact that although the former was up on the day — and the latter closed down a hefty amount, the net volumes in both were not all overly heav

However, silver and the other two white metals weren’t even allowed a sniff of gold’s glory, as those collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were all over them like white on rice.”

Chuck again… You  can find Ed at: www.edsteergoldsliver.com

The U.S. Data Cupboard got some real economic data yesterday, and then it came back to yield more real economic data this morning…  There’s a lot here, so stay with me…  First off the ADP Employment Report was a big surprise as it showed that 233,000 jobs were added in Rocktober… The experts were only expecting 133,000… Then came the first reading of 3^rd QTR GDP, which was steady but weaker at 2.8%… I would say that we should look for downward revisions in the future here…. 

And then today’s Data Cupboard has already printed last month’s Personal Income and Spending…  Personal Income was up .3%, while Spending was up .5%…. I just didn’t see that coming, a strong spending month , but then it is an election year….  Then the Fed’s fave inflation calc. PCE (personal Consumption Expenditures) printed for Roctober at 2.1%…. That’s a lot of bull if you as me…  And finally, the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also printed…  And they were 216,000 last week…  That’s weaker than I expected since I’ve been reading about layoffs and business closings, etc.  But, once again, it’s an election year… 

To recap… The dollar traders finally broke out of their doldrums, and sold dollars a bit yesterday, and some more overnight… The overbought scenario seems to be playing out here… Gold reached another new all-time high yesterday, but is getting sold this morning… Silver continues to get whacked by the short paper traders on a daily basis… 

For What It’s Worth…. I touched on this above… But this is a report on the GDP print and it can be found here: U.S. GDP Q3 2024: (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “he U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday that is adjusted for inflation and seasonality.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.1%. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. Wednesday’s reading is the first of three the department will issue.

The report confirms that the U.S. expansion has continued despite elevated interest rates and long-standing worries that the burst of fiscal and monetary stimulus that carried the economy through the Covid crisis wouldn’t be enough to sustain growth.

However, resilient consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity, has helped keep the economy moving, as has a relentless wave of government spending that pushed the budget deficit to more than $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.

Another major factor the department cited for growth was federal government spending, which exploded higher by 9.7%, pushed by a 14.9% surge in defense outlays. Fiscal spending at the federal level contributed 0.6 percentage point to the GDP growth rate.”

Chuck again…  one has to suspect that the fact that the election is so close that this data was massaged… Like I said above, I will be looking for downward revisions with this data set in the future… 

Market Prices 10/31/2024: American Style: A$ 6577, kiwi .5978, C$ .7191, euro 1.0880, sterling 1.2974, Swiss $1.1602, European Style: rand 17.6423, krone 10.9667, SEK 10.8823, forint 375.40, zloty 3.990, koruna 23.2727, RUB 97.08, yen 152.35, sing 1.3208, HKD 7.7734, INR 84.08, China 7.1157, peso 20.05, BRL 5.7650, BBDXY 1,258.88, Dollar Index 103.85, Oil $69.24, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $33.41, Platinum $1,007.00, Palladium $1,144.00 Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,772.88

That’s it for today and this week…. A Big Congratulations to the Dodgers who had a great comeback game VS the Yankees to win the World Series 4-1… Baseball is over for this year, UGH!  My beloved Cardinals are going to sit on their hands this offseason, according to reports…. I’m so frustrated with the front office mgt of this team… My beloved Mizzou Tigers play BYE this week, so they can’t lose! HA! Well, it’s Halloween, Boo!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and a Happy Halloween today…. R.E.M. Take us to the finish line today with their great song: Losing My Religion…  I hope you will also Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies remain in their respective sick beds…
• Western investors are buying Gold…. now…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I apologize right here, right now for Monday’s very late Pfennig…  Good thing good friend, Dennis Miller, notified me that he hadn’t received a Pfennig to wake me up and get it out! I told you Monday that there would be no Pfennig yesterday, so that leaves us with two days to get caught up with! I had an eye appt. Last Friday, and in it, I was told my nearsightedness was worse, so a new prescription… UGH! I just got new glasses 6 months ago! Last time (6 mos ago) I had Kathy help me pick out my frames… And after viewing them all, I put my old glasses on, and she said, “Those! I like those the best!”… See, what I get to work with? Crowded House greets me this morning with their song: Dream On…  (80’s song!) 

Well, it does appear to me that traders have put their trading books away, and are waiting for the election results… The BBDXY didn’t budge yesterday, and remained at 1,261 all day… Gold was down $1, and Silver was up 1-cent! So, no movement there either….   I’ve got something that helps explain this situation in the FWIW section today, so keep dialed in to read that later in the letter…

But you’re not getting off so easily this morning… I have a snippet of an article that appeared on www.moneymetals.com  that I’ll share with you here: “In a recent interview, Dr. Ron Paul engages with Jp Cortez, Executive Director of the Sound Money Defense League, the national public policy project of Money Metals which seeks to remonetize gold and silver, primarily by removing taxation around the sale, use, and purchase of the assets.

Dr. Paul and Cortez explore the historical context of the U.S. dollar, particularly the tragic shift away from the gold standard during Nixon’s administration, and the resulting inflationary pressures that have followed.

They advocate for gold as a stable asset and emphasize the need for a private monetary system grounded in physical assets. This approach would help shield the economy from the detrimental effects of government money printing, runaway spending, and currency debasement.

Dr. Paul and Cortez discussed the growing distrust in fiat currency, noting how BRICS nations and various U.S. states are adopting measures to hedge against dollar depreciation by turning to gold and other tangible assets.”

Chuck again… Yes, I recall a meeting at a place outside of Atlanta years ago, where I explained to the bond traders there that we wouldn’t be anywhere near the economic growth if we had remained on a Gold Standard… But I also explained to them that we wouldn’t have the debt problem we have, nor would we suffer from inflation bouts… There’s also a funny story about that trip to Atlanta….  I was walking out of the terminal looking for Frank Trotter to come around with the car, and I was with Michelle Boshert, and Jane Dulle, and the road was a good 50 yards away… When a car pulled up, rolled down the window, and a guy yelled, “Hey! Aren’t you Chuck Butler?”  I yelled back, “yes”, and he said, “I love the Pfennig!” and drove off….  To this day, Michelle still tells that story, because she still can’t believe it and she was there! 

The price of Oil remained in the $67 handle yesterday…. And the 10-year’s yield saw a dip to 4.27%… 

Yesterday, Gold & Silver broke free of the doldrums that have affected the dollar traders, who saw the BBDXY gain just 1 index point yesterday…. Gold gained $34, to close at $2,776.00, and Silver gained 75-cents to close at $34.50…. So, the traders putting their trading books away until the elections, didn’t apply here with the metals… 

The 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.32% at one point yesterday, before it settled back at 4.25%…  it had to be the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in buying the bond to keep the yield from getting away from them…  

In the overnight markets last night…. Nothing much happened with the dollar, as the BBDXY trades this morning at 1,263… The index has picked up 2 index points this week… Big Whoop!  The price of Gold is up in the early trading today by $6… But Silver is getting whacked by the short paper traders and is down 40-cents to start the day today… The short paper trader still pummels Silver whenever they can, because…. They can….  And that’s the end of that story….  Dirty b($*#((&s. They’ll get their comeuppance one day… I can feel it my bones… But for now, we hve to deal with their whackings and taking the metals to the woodshed… 

The 10-year’s yield is 4.26% this morning…   back to rising… Hmmm….

OK, this was one funny video that was going around…  Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen was at a podium taking questions, when a reporter asked her “”How concerned are you about the potential impact of the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency?” But before she could answer the question, the seal of the U.S. Treasury / dollar,  fell off the podium!  I would say that that was an ominous omen…  wouldn’t you? 

I personally don’t feel like this is something that will occur in the next 5-7 years… But beyond that, I wouldn’t bet against it…  The BRICS are not yet ready for Prime Time, but give them time… And their asking other BRICS members to join them in the dedollarization push, didn’t really gain any traction, this time… But remember, all these countries are very aware what the U.S. did to Russia, and that it could do it to them, so they are quite aware of the vulnerability with holding U.S. dollars in reserve…. 

Regarding Gold…  Gold seems to be bucking the trend… That is when the dollar goes down, Gold goes up… And vice versa… Gold rise this year has corresponded with a rise in the dollar….  I think most of Gold’s rise has been about how the general public and Central Banks around the world, don’t believe for a minute that inflation has been defeated… 

For years I told you dear readers that inflation was a personal thing…  You may or may not experience any inflation, based on your spending habits….  If you don’t buy tickets to games, you don’t experience the inflation in game tickets… Or, if you don’t drive any longer, and therefore don’t need car insurance, you don’t experience the price inflation of car insurance….  This could go on forever, but I think you get the gist… 

I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning regarding Gold… “Global gold demand swelled about 5% in the third quarter, setting a record for the period and lifting consumption above $100 billion for the first time, according to the World Gold Council.

The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals, that helped offset waning appetite from Asia.”

Chuck again… Now that’s interesting, isn’t it?  Investors in the West hitching up their pants and finally getting on the rally truck that is Gold…. That’s typical of Western investors… Jump on the band wagon after it has travelled miles… In other words,… They buy at high levels, when they could have bought at much cheaper levels if they had gotten of their duffs and not listened to their stock jockey, who told them that Gold was a “barbaric rock” with no yield… 

Well, even if the dollar is drifting, it’s still very strong, and keeping the currencies confined to their sick beds… The Price of Oil bumped higher to a $68 handle overnight… But even still, that’s a cheap price for Oil, given that it costs the Oil producers about $70 to get Oil out of the ground….  That’s a figure that was given to me by an Oil industry guru, and so I go with it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for Sept. For us today… Big Whoop!  In addition, we’ll see the Stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month…  This report is nothing more than a heart beat of the stock market… So that’s why it’s so STUPID!   And finally, Job Openings will print for Sept.  No great shakes here in the Data Cupboard today, so move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

To recap… Traders have decided to shut down until the election, it does appear to Chuck… The dollar hasn’t budged from 1261 in the BBDXY in two days… Gold and silver are basically trading in the same clothes as yesterday… And the price of Oil remained in the $67 handle…  Ron Paul visits the Pfennig today, and Chuck looks back at a time in Atlanta years ago….

For What It’s Worth…. Here’s your answer to the question, What has slowed Gold’s upward price movement down? And it can be found here: Gold & Silver Are Consolidating Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold and silver trading remained subdued this past week, with traders holding back from significant moves as they await the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

With only seven trading days left until the U.S. presidential election, financial markets have become quiet as they anticipate the outcome. In this environment, traders are hesitant to make large bets, often resulting in slowed, range-bound trading until the results are announced.

This behavior, known as a “volatility squeeze,” has been particularly evident in gold and silver over the past week. The encouraging news is that gold and silver are poised to resume their upward trends soon, once they break out of their consolidation ranges.

Gold has performed so steadily over the past few months that its orderly ascent has almost become predictable—talk about a good problem to have! COMEX gold futures recently closed above the critical $2,700 level, issuing yet another bullish technical signal.

Over the past week, gold has traded sideways and now sits just $18 shy of its all-time high reached on Wednesday. Interestingly, gold’s consolidation over the past week is forming what looks like a bull flag—a continuation pattern that suggests further gains once gold breaks out on strong volume.

Now, we’re just waiting for the breakout, which could be triggered by the U.S. presidential election results or potentially even sooner. I anticipate gold reaching $3,000 fairly soon—a gain of just 9.2% from its current level.

Similar to gold, silver also seems to be forming a bull flag pattern following its strong breakout above the critical $32.50 level on Friday, October 18th.

As I stated after that breakout, silver is on the verge of a powerful bull run that should push it to roughly $50 quite quickly.”

Chuck again… Well, that’s pretty much how I see all this going too… So there’s that! 

Market Prices 10/29/2024: American Style: A$ .6573, kiwi .5975, C$ .7162, euro 1.0810, sterling 1.2940, Swiss $1,1503, European Style: rand 17.7507, krone 10.9869, SEK 10.7053, forint 377.58, zloty 4.0169, koruna 23.4663, RUB 97.03, yen 153.37, sing 1.3252, HKD 7.7716, INR 84.08, China 7.1249, peso 20.01, BRL 5.1249, BBDXY 1,263.95, Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $68.64, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $34.10, Platinum $1,028.00, Palladium $1,161.00, Copper $4.33, and Gold… $2,782.07

That’s it for today… Well, I’m going back to the basics, and attempting to remind the folks at MD Anderson that I used to be a patient there… It’s been nearly 10 years since I’ve last been there…  The tumor in my mouth is beginning to make eating difficult, which for weight loss is good…. But not for nutrition…  It’s always something with me, eh? I hate that it’s like that, but what is a poor boy, like me, to do?  I had a dear reader write to me and tell me his calculation for inflation was 23%…  That seems about right to me!   Alvin Lee  (whom I loved to hear play his guitar!) and Ten Years After, take us to the finish line today with their song: Choo, Choo Momma…  That song will get you dancing in your seat! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler 

• Gold has small rallies Thursday & Friday last week
• And is it all over but the crying for Bitcoin?

Good Day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the Dodgers are up 2-0, in the World Series, as the games now shift to the Bronx, for the next three, that is if three is needed… My beloved Mizzou Tigers found out that they weren’t ready for Prime Time on Saturday, as they got clobbered by Alabama…. I have to think that it would have been closer if our starting quarterback was still in the game… But that was not to be, and his backup, well, he threw 3 interceptions, need I say more?  There will be NO Pfennig tomorrow, as I have an appt. With my heart doctor bright and early…  And this will be late today, because I was on cloud nine this morning and thought it was Sunday!  The Band… Smith, greets me this morning with their song: Baby, It’s You…

Well, I don’t know what traders had in mind going into the last two trading days of last week… But they sure weren’t into making calls to go one way or the other!  The BBDXY ended the week at 1,261…  and it had been 1259 at the end of trading on Thursday… Gold found a way to avoid all the holes that the short paper traders put in the road, and gain a bit on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 1,248…  That’s just a $10 gain from Wednesday last week… But… It was a gain, whereas Silver never found a bid that wasn’t wiped out by the short paper traders… Silver ended the week at $33.67…  about $30 off its intraday high on Friday… 

So, Gold gained, albeit at a slower pace as the short paper traders made life hell for the Gold bugs, and Silver lost ground to close the week, so there’s work to still be done here, folks… Hang onto your hats…  I do believe there’s more upside to be gained here… 

I read an article on Forbes.com this past weekend titled: “Why is the price of Gold so high right now?”  The article didn’t tell me anything that I haven’t already talked about here, but it did mention that traders/ short term holders are entering the Gold market right now….  To that I say, no thanks!  We don’t need your short-term trades, we’re only interested in store of wealth investors that are in it for the long run! 

And after one day of buying, the 10-year was back on the selling blocks again to end the week…  On Thursday morning, the 10-year Treasury’s yield was 4.19%… But by the time we ended the week last Friday, the 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.27%….    

And the price of Oil got clobbered on Friday… We ended the week with Oil trading with a $68 handle, down over $3 for the day… What? Did the wars in Ukraine, and the Middle East end, and all’s right in the world again?  You would think that something like that would have to happen for the price of Oil to drop like that…. I’m just saying…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar continued to drift and is stuck at 1,261… Hmmm….  ominous right? We’ll have to wait-n-see… Gold is down $4 to start the day today… And Silver is up 9-cents…  These two just can’t seem to rally at the same time in recent days… 

The price of Oil dropped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $67 handle… The media is claiming that because Israel targeted only military bases in their attack this past weekend, and not the Nuclear or Oil refineries, that’s the reason Oil has dropped so much…   Hmmm…  I don’t know if I see eye to eye with that, but it’s what is being reported, so there you go! 

And the 10-year’s yield is trading at 4.29% this morning…   What if…. What if this is just the beginning of the exposure of the rot on treasuries vines?  I’m just saying…. 

Well, I mentioned the sell off of the 10-year above, and then this weekend I ran to this article on Bloomberg.com that talked about what’s going on.” The US bond market, already stung by the worst selloff in six months, now heads into a crucial two-week stretch that will likely chart its course for the rest of the year.

A series of market-moving events are coming in rapid succession, kicked off by the Treasury Department’s announcement Wednesday on the scale of its coming debt sales and by monthly payroll figures Friday that will show whether the economy is cooling enough to justify further interest-rate cuts.”

Chuck again… The article goes on to talk about the following week that has the election that could drive yields one way or the other depending on who wins…. 

OK… The currencies are all down in the dumps again, with the dollar beating them all the way to the woodshed… The euro has lost the 1.08 figure once again, the Japanese yen is probably not going to stop losing ground until it hits 155… And while all of the rest of the currencies are all in their sick beds… The Chinese renminbi continues to hold onto its gains VS the dollar in recent trading…   I’m going to say this again, for all of you who missed class the day I said the first time, But the dollar is overbought right now, and that will remain until it doesn’t…  That’s how these things usually work… No sense in beating yourself up over it…  

The BBDXY is down just 1% in the last year…. At one point last spring, it appeared to be all over for the green/ peachback, but then it wasn’t… And it’s been all about the dollar on and off since then….

A dear reader sent me a video to watch of a newscast that highlighted the BRIC Conference held last week, and the emcee had this to say, which I agreed with wholeheartedly… ” A lot of country leaders, economists, and observers are shrugging off the BRICs call for dedollarization… But I’m here to tell you that I believe that you’ll be sorry when the BRICS get all their ducks in a row, and achieve this call for dedollarization…”    I remember saying to the screen, “I hear you buddy, and welcome to my life, of people doubting you”…. 

I have something that’s not good news for the Bitcoin crowd in the FWIW section today, so make sure you stay dialed in here, so you don’t miss that! 

And The Russian Central Bank raised their internal interest rate to 21% from 19%, this represents the highest rate around, folks… But don’t try to lock in a high yield here… The sanctions on Russia, have put the kyboshes on any investments here…  

The U.S Data Cupboard last Friday, had the Sept. Durable Goods Orders and they were not good… In Aug Durable Good Orders were negative -.8%, and in Sept they were the same, a negative -.8%…  And the economy is doing just fine, right Janet Yellen?  

This week’s Data Cupboard is back-end loaded….  there’s not much to see until we get to Thursday this week, and then all hell breaks loose, culminating in the Jobs Jamboree on Friday this week…

To recap…  We ended last week, with traders not making any calls to go either direction…  The dollar is still on the top of the hill, king of the hill, if you will… Chuck is befuddled as to why the price of Oil fell 5% last week….  The currencies are all in their sick beds again… But with the dollar being overbought, how long will that last?  

For What It’s Worth… Well this is the piece that is just one of three that I’ve read recently that talk about what the Central Banks of the U.S. and Eurozone have in store for Bitcoin, and it can be found here: A ‘Declaration Of War’—Fed And ECB Plot To ‘Tax Or Ban’ Bitcoin And Use Price Gains To Escape $35.7 Trillion Doom Loop (forbes.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has published a paper this week arguing bitcoin and similar assets could be taxed or banned to help governments maintain deficits.

“A legal prohibition against bitcoin can restore unique implementation of permanent primary deficits, and so can a tax on bitcoin,” the paper’s authors wrote, adding bitcoin creates a “balanced budget trap” that highlights spending shortfalls.

The Fed has “joined the European Central Bank in its attack on bitcoin,” said VanEck’s head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel, writing in an X thread that the paper “fantasizes about ‘legal prohibition’ and extra taxes on bitcoin to ensure government debt remains the ‘only risk-free security.'”

The bitcoin price has surged along with the price of gold this year as investors bet higher interest rates combined with a huge increase in deficits will create a feedback loop, forcing governments to print more money.

U.S. national debt has skyrocketed in recent years, crossing the $34 trillion mark at the beginning of 2024, largely due to Covid and lockdown stimulus measures that sent inflation spiraling out of control and forced the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at a historical clip.

Earlier this year, Bank of America analysts warned the U.S. debt load is about to ramp up to add $1 trillion every 100 days—potentially fueling a bitcoin price surge—and could reach $36 trillion by the end of 2024.

The Fed’s paper follows a report from the ECB that argues “the existence of bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers,” describing it as a “zero-sum game” in which bitcoin buyers “increase their real wealth and consumption” at the expense of others.

“The ECB claims that early bitcoin adopters steal economic value from latecomers,” bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester posted to X, calling the paper “a true declaration of war” and adding he “strongly believes authorities will use this luddite argument to enact harsh taxes or bans.”

Chuck again…  Yes, dear reader, the Gov’t could ban Bitcoin, or tax it so no one would want to own it… And if the Fed already has a working paper on how to do this, you can bet it’s being discussed in the inner circles of Gov’t…. 

Market Prices 10/28/2024: American Style: A$.6583, kiwi .5976, C$ .7183, euro 1.0816, sterling 1.2971, Swiss $1.1556, European Style: rand 17.6853, krone 10.9903, SEK 10.6597, forint 374.07, zloty 4.0219, koruna 23.4556, RUB 97.25, yen 153.28, sing 1.3226, HKD 7.7716, INR 84.07, China 7.1293, peso 19.08, BRL 5.6936, BBDXY 1,261.35,  Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $67.72, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $33.76, Platinum $1,038.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $4.36, and Gold…. $2,743.34

That’s it for today… And tomorrow….  talk to you next on Wednesday this week… This week is Polar Bear Week! Not that I know any Polar Bears…. HA! We will end Rocktober this week, and then my most hated month comes to us…. November… Last year, I went to S. Florida for the first two weeks of Nov. and it did help get the month over more quickly… But not this year, I’m still not ready for Prime Time! Kathy came back home this past weekend… So, my time alone, was over… I didn’t even have a problem while I was alone… And I didn’t have Pizza one night!  I’ll be contacting MD Anderson today, so more on that when I know more… I’ve been a good boy doing my Physical Therapy home work… It’s all simple exercises but since I haven’t done any kind of exercising for years,  I get worn out easily… Not so much now, though, after a week of doing them…  Neil Young takes us to the finish line today with his song: 4 Strong Winds….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar finally sees some selling…
• The Bank of Canada cuts rates again!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another night of no baseball and I’m going through withdrawal… In about 10 days that will be the scenario until spring, so I had better get used to it fast!  My adoptive NFL team, the Chiefs (They are a Missouri team!) traded for a great wide receiver yesterday, now the team is more of a threat to other teams than they were before the trade. Good friend, Rick B. Stopped by to say hi yesterday late afternoon… I had just come inside from sitting outside and reading, when He texted me and said he was stopping by soon…  Michael Murphey greets me this morning with his song: Wildfire… 

Well…. The great move by the U.S. dollar the previous night was almost wiped out in the U.S. session yesterday, leaving the BBDXY plus 1 index point on the day… I had wondered when traders who watch things like the RSI were going to begin to act on the dollar’s overbought status….  And the short paper traders showed up at the COMEX with arms full of short Gold & Silver trades yesterday… They came back with a vengeance yesterday, and brought Gold down by $33, and Silver down by $1.15…. Gold Closed at $2,715.40, and Silver closed at $33.76… TSK, TSK, Tsk, those darn short paper traders doing the dirty deed, done dirt cheap (AC/DC) by the truck load yesterday… 

All they did was make it less expensive to back up the truck for Gold & Silver. They created an excellent buying opportunity…..

And while we’re talking about buying opportunities…  The dollar rally is giving currency buyers an excellent buying opportunity…  As my former colleague, Ty Keough used to tell his clients… “If the dollar is strong, that means you can buy more of the currency that before.”  On the EverBank World Markets Trading Desk, I sat right in the middle of all the people on the desk, so I could hear their conversations with clients… This after I had stopped taking calls…  So, I heard them all…. 

The price of Oil rallied again with the price of Oil ending the day trading with a $71 handle…  Still range bound, and subject to the whims of Oil traders who can’t seem to get their stuff together, if you ask me… And after trading briefly with a 4.25% yield yesterday, some buyers showed up and brought the 10-year Treasury’s yield down by 2 Basis Points to end the day at 4.22%…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold last night, as its overbought status came into play… The BBDXY lost 2.5 index points overnight, and starts today’s trading at 1,257…   The euro has bumped back to 1.08 and all the rest of the currencies reflect a similar bump higher VS the dollar this morning… Seems that most writers this morning are talking about how the markets are fearing a “red sweep” in the elections in less than two weeks…. And that means a weaker dollar…

Gold & Silver put yesterday’s engineered takedown by the short paper traders to bed, and started another strong run higher this morning… Gold is up $23, and Silver is up 32-cents to start the day today…  These days, it so darn easy to pick out a day when the short paper traders hold the upper hand, as the damage is done in one day, and the then the next day, Gold & Silver get right back to what they were doing before the engineered takedown… Rally… 

The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buying as the yield rallied to 4.19%… Like I said above, this bond saw 4.25% briefly yesterday, and since then it has seen its yield slide… 

The Bank of Canada did it again yesterday… They cut rates again… This time though they opted to cut rates 50 Basis Points… The Bank of Canada started their internal interest rate with a quarter percentage-point reduction in June. It cut again by 25 basis points at each meeting in July and September. The next and final rate decision for this year is on Dec. 11, when some economists already project another 50 basis-point cut.  

The BOC is hell-bent, and whiskey bound to let everyone know that they defeated inflation and it’s time now to rid the economy of high interest rates….   Yeah, as if 5% was a “high rate”….   I used to think that the BOC was a prudent Central Bank, but that thought was thrown to the curb years ago, when they cut rates to near zero… And then left them there for some time…. Sound familiar?  Yeah, it’s the same scenario for the Fed/ Cabal /Cartel… 

You may recall me telling you that the BRICS were have a summit this week, a couple of weeks ago… I found this from ; The BRICS summit is underway in Russia – Sherwood News

“The group, which often presents itself as a counterweight to the Western-dominated world order, now accounts for more than one-third of global economic output (PPP adjusted) — a figure that’s only expected to rise in the coming years. The ascendence of the BRICS has been well telegraphed, with the term originally coined by a Goldman Sachs economist way back in 2001, but the group didn’t officially meet at a summit until 2009. By the end of the decade, BRICS’ share of global GDP is expected to rise to nearly 40%.

So, what do the BRICS want? Although the group’s actual structure is informal, one of the group’s key goals is de-dollarization, or pivoting away from the US dollar as the main currency for international trade. For countries that are heavily subjected to tough Western economic sanctions, like China and Russia, this would help capital flow free of US pressure and influence. So far, practical changes have been relatively insignificant: China now has an alternative to the SWIFT payment system (though it’s lightly used) and some countries have switched their currency reserves from dollars to gold.”

Chuck again… You may recall me telling you that there was a rumor going around that the BRICs would introduce their new common currency that was backed by Gold…   It doesn’t appear to be in play at this conference, maybe next year, it will be ready for Prime Time… 

But when the BRICS do announce that, they will immediately gain attention to their currency, and take the spotlight away from the dollar, and onto their new currency…. 

I read an article by Tom Dyson yesterday of the Bonner private research group where he was telling his dear readers not to sell their metals at currency prices… He reasoned that today’s prices will be looked at like the $1,800 Gold was last year at this time… And if I could be so bold to add something to the “do not sell” advice, it is that Gold is a store of wealth, and should not be sold, but instead handed down,….   

At least that’s what they do in the East… It’s not a way that we do things here in the West, but that doesn’t mean we can’t change!      I know that I sure have changed my outlook for Gold through the years…  I’m just saying… 

Well, a hawkish sounding Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel really has the dollar pushing new current cycle highs, and ignoring its overbought status…  The IMF isn’t helping things any… In a recent report, the IMF said that the U.S. economy should be growing nicely in 2025, while they dissed the European and Asian economies, downgrading their growth figures that printed previously… 

Now, in my humble country boy opinion, I’ll give them the idea that the U.S. would outgrow Europe an Asia next year, but… I’ll argue with the IMF to the grave about how the U.S. economy would grow nicely in 2025…  All the data I’m reporting each day doesn’t paint a picture for the economy like that…. I’m just saying… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention that I saw that Fernando Valenzuela died the other day.. He was only 63! . Fernando was a cult hero and pitched for the Dodgers (And Cardinals ) He threw a screwball, which was an old timer’s pitch, but brought him to the Majors… RIP Fernando! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for us today… I’m still waiting for all the business closing, and layoffs to show up here… And if they don’t, then this data set is manipulated too!  And tomorrow, we’ll see the color of the Sept. Durable Goods Orders which I’m going to say they’ll be negative for the month…  But that’s tomorrow, so we’ll talk about it on Monday next week…

To recap… The dollar’s overnight rally was almost turned around in the U.S. Session yesterday, with the BBDXY ekeing out a 1 index point gain on the day…  The BRICS are meeting as Chuck writes today, and it appears they will disappoint us with no mention of their Gold backed Common Currency introduction… And Chuck talks about the dollar rally, and what’s causing it… 

For What It’s Worth….   I found this on kitco.com and it’s about how China drives the Gold market these days, and it can be found here: China’s influence in the gold market is only just beginning – LBMA panel | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “China has played an unprecedented role in gold’s rally to record highs this year, and while the market may have cooled in the second half of the year, investors should not underestimate the Asian giant’s impact on precious metals.

China’s influence in the gold market will only continue to grow as its economy evolves, according to a panel discussion at the London Bullion Market Association’s 2024 Precious Metals Conference.

“From a consumption perspective, the continued growth of China’s economy and its large, growing consumer group will create a solid foundation for China’s gold market,” said Dr. Zenghui, Vice President of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), during the discussion.

Zenghui also noted that gold demand is evolving from basic consumption into an important investment asset within the Chinese economy. He explained that the SGE is in the process of streamlining its membership procedures, making it easier for international companies to tap into China’s gold market.

“I believe there will be more trading strategies and a larger trading market,” Zenghui said. “This is a very exciting opportunity, and I warmly welcome global institutions to join our market.”

John Levin, Head of Metal Sales and Trading for Asia-Pacific at TD Securities, joked that when Zheng said his company is small, he is not exaggerating. He explained that it is difficult for Western investors to comprehend just how large the precious metals market is in China. He emphasized that the size of the country’s market is why it remains a major global influence.”

Chuck again…. Yes, as I wrote a couple of months ago, China has taken over as the main source of pricing for Gold from the West…  This is an interesting article, because it shows how China is a major player in Gold… 

Market Prices 10/24/2024: American Style: A$ .6654, kiwi .6029, C$ .7237, euro 1.0803, sterling 1.2979, Swiss $1.1554, European Style: rand 17.6755, krone 10.9427, SEK 10.5738, forint 373.08, zloty 4.0231, koruna 23.3589, RUB 96.93, yen 151.96, sing 1.3194, HKD 7.7704, INR 84.07, China 7.1147, peso 19.78, BRL 5.6910, BBDXY 1,257.49, Dollar Index 104.34, Oil $71.10, 10-year 4.19%, Silver $34.08, Platinum $1,085.00, Palladium $1,130.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,738.59

That’s it for today and this week… Well, I made a week all by myself… I know the women on the old trading desk would always be concerned because their thoughts were that a man can’t take care of himself…  Well, I always proved them wrong then, and would still be proving them wrong now….  My beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa Ala. To play the vaunted Alabama Crimson tide this Saturday… It’s the SEC game of the week on ABC, so this is your opportunity to get back into the playoff picture, Mizzou, don’t blow it! Go Tigers! Our Blues play tonight in Toronto… Go Blues! Steve Winwood takes us to the finish line today with his song: Roll With It…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Youself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought even in its overbought status
• Gold & Silver enter overbought status…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No baseball last night, and our Blues were on the pay version of ESPN, so I was without a team to watch! Congrats to the Dodgers & Yankees for they will be the World Series combatants starting Friday this week.  The Dodgers & Yankees along with the Mets have the top 3 payrolls in baseball… It shows to go ya that you DO Get What You Pay For! And I read that my beloved Cardinals are going to reduce their payroll next year… And they thought they saw a lot of empty seats this past year? Radio Head greets me this morning with their song: Karma Police… 

Well, the dollar is being difficult these days, and with that the dollar held its ground yesterday… Didn’t gain, didn’t lose… I had mentioned yesterday that it appeared to me that the dollar was overbought… The rot on the euro’s vine got more exposure yesterday, and it lost the 1.08 handle…  The European Central Bank (ECB ) seems to be ahead of the Fed heads with regards to cutting their interest rates, and that alone is like the ECB shooting itself in the foot…  You see, a weaker currency welcomes in other countries’ inflation, and then keeps it as its own… So, the ECB thought that they had defeated inflation, and they began their rate cuts… But lurking in that dark alley around the corner is inflation, and it come back with a vengeance! 

Gold & Silver had another good day yesterday, with Gold gaining $29, and Silver gaining $1.07. Gold closed yesterday at $2,749.40, and Silver closed yesterday at $35.92… I’m sure the short paper traders were in the market keeping a lid on the metals, but any attempt to take them lower was snuffed out with physical buying…  Ok, earlier this week I talked about how I didn’t think that FOMO in buying Gold & Silver had hit just yet… But the more I read, I have to think again about that…   Here’s Kitco.com with their thought: “Despite gold prices cresting close to year-end targets months ahead of schedule, the yellow metal is still supported by strong tailwinds and investor allocations remain relatively light, so the risks remain skewed to the upside.”  

Chuck again… So, while the investor allocations remain light, they are increasing inch by inch…  But if and when investors get FOMO there’ll be no stepping in front of the runaway bus that is Gold & Silver… I’m just saying… 

And that also brings about another problem for the runaway prices of Gold & Silver in a FOMO market, and that is if everybody is calling their dealer to buy some physical metal, pretty soon the dealer will not be able to fill the orders in a timely manner… So, what are you waiting for?  If you have been procrastinating, or you have been lack about updating your allocation of metals, now is the time, before these metals take off for much higher ground, and you’ll find it difficult to find physical metals that are for sale… 

It’s taken a while longer to get it through their thick skulls, but the price of Oil finally broke out of its range, and bumped higher to a $71 handle yesterday…  And the 10-year continues to inch higher with its yield that yesterday closed trading with a 4.22% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well one asset that’s overbought saw a ton of new buying, and two assets that are overbought are seeing selling in the early trading today… A Tale of Three Assets… Here we go… The dollar continues to get bought even with it being overbought in the RSI… The BBDXY is up 5 index points this morning, as the overnight markets have gone “all-in” on the dollar…   While Gold & Silver, that just popped into overbought status after yesterday’s monster gains, is seeing some selling in the early trading today… Gold is down $6 to start the day and Silver is down 56-cents… 

It’s all about the dollar, folks… I hope you have battened down the hatches to allow this storm to pass… It will pass, if history is any indication… Suddenly, someone with some gray matter, will have a lightbulb turn bright over his head, an he’ll announce to the world that the dollar is overbought…  Someone involved in the markets that is, not me, no one listens to me in the markets any longer…. 

The price of Oil was up to $72 and change yesterday, but this morning it’s back to the $70 handle.. Bloomberg, com is saying that traders took a view of the stockpiles in the U.S. and decided that the U.S. was “good to go”… And thus, the selling of Oil overnight… 

And look at that 10-year! The 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.24% this morning!   That means the 10-year’s yield is up by 55 basis points from September 17, on the eve of the big-fat rate cut, when the 10-year yield had bottomed out at 3.65%. Remember those German traders at Deutsche Bank that I told you were shorting the 10-year, an at the time I thought they were dealing with some brain disfunction… But lo-and-behold, it appears they were bang on with their call on the direction of 10-year’s yield! 

I think I may have pointed this out last week, but then again, maybe I didn’t… So you get to read it again, if I did…. I read a lot about how the dollar is so strong because of the higher yields in Treasuries… But if that true, the yield in the 10-year would be going down, from all the buying… Instead, the yield keeps going up, indicating that investors are selling the bond, not buying it…  

My spider sense is tingling here folks… So, here my take on all this, if you don’t want to hear it, skip ahead…. OK, is everyone here that wants to be here?  Good,,,, I think the phone call went like this: Hello? Yes, is the White House calling we need to speak to the head bond trader…Yes, we’ll wait….  Hello, this is Mr. Big Bond Trader, how can I help you? Listen, we need present a reason we’re propping up the dollar, so we’re going to fabricate this story about that the high yields in the bonds are driving the dollar higher…  Are you good with that?  Well, Mr. White House, that doesn’t make an ounce of sense, if I have to explain it to you, I will…  Higher yields are a result of interest rate hikes or selling of bonds or both… And since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel recently cut rates, it has to be selling… So, your fabrication doesn’t work for me any other bond trader…  Well, ok, we don’t get these bonds the way they trade ad price, but we’re going ahead with the fabrication, and we would appreciate it wink, wink, if you went along with the lie… Goodbye… 

I read the other day that the U.S. spent more on combating COVID as it did in combat in WWII….  YIKES… The economic growth was so strong at the end of WWII, that it didn’t take long to pay down the debts of the war…  That’s the exact opposite of what happened with the debts of the plandemic…. They were simply added to the national debt… Because there were no tax receipts to pay for the debt, no reserve to pay for the debt, and so, it just went straight to the national debt…  What happens if the U.S. were to be hit with another plandemic, or war expenses, or debt payments and they didn’t have the funds to pay for them?  They will have to print the currency to pay for them, and add the amounts to the national debt….   

And in a sign of the times, this is something or something akin to this that we’ll be having to suffer through in th next month…  In Michigan there are 500K More Voter Registrations than Voters in the state…  I have to say that I’m a patriot, and I’ve always gone to the polls on election day, but after the last escapades in 2020, and now it appears that no corrections to the escapades have been made, and has me wondering if I should even attempt to vote this year, given these problems….  Oh, don’t worry, I’ll do my civic duty… But please let’s have no election escapades this year! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Fed’s Beige Book to open up to observers this afternoon… The Beige Book is a collection of reports from the regional Fed Presidents…  The markets used to wait with bated breath for this report to print, but not so much any longer… These days, the regional Fed Presidents all are out on the speaking circuit, so if the markets want to know what’s going on in each Fed President’s region, they just need to listen to his speech… 

To Recap…  The dollar held its ground yesterday, so the thought that it had reached an overbought status, didn’t ring true yesterday… Gold & Silver were back on the rally tracks yesterday, and it appears that FOMO is beginning, but just at is nascent position right now… Chuck asks, What are you waiting for?  regarding buying new or reallocating your position in metals… Chuck plays telephone operator and has the skinny (make believe) on why the pundits keep repeating that bond yields are high, so that’s why the dollar is strong… 

For What it’s Worth…  Well, it’s time for more Pam and Russ Martens great journalism… This time they have investigated the U.S. Banking sector, and you’re not going to like what they found… You can fine the report here: Academic Paper Finds U.S. Banking System Is Less Safe Today than Before the 2010 Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Legislation Was Passed (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Academic Paper Finds U.S. Banking System Is Less Safe Today than Before the 2010 Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Legislation Was Passed”

The authors of the study are Dr. Julie Ayton; Professor Abdelhafid Benamraoui; Dr. Huyen (Trang) Ngo; and Dr. Stefan van Dellen. They define the purpose of the study as follows:

“The research paper tests two critical research hypotheses, (i) whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act reduced bank post-merger contribution to systemic risk, and (ii) its role in solving the too-big-to-fail problem induced by large bank mergers. The study results reject both hypotheses indicating that the Dodd-Frank Act was ineffective at reducing systemic risk and in particular the risk attributed to mergers among larger banks, bringing back the fundamental issue and argument of too-big-to-fail and how this can be addressed through regulatory changes or reinforcement.”

A key finding of their study is the following:

“We also find that the larger the bidder, the greater its contribution to systemic risk, but only in the post-Dodd-Frank period. In other words, the post-legislation increase in systemic risk contribution is even more important for large acquiring banks.”

Chuck again… This is a long very intense read, so if you have the time, please click the link above and read away!

Market Prices 10/23/2024: American Style: A$ .6634, kiwi .6009, C$ .7222, euro 1.0775, sterling 1.2983, Swiss $1.1530, European Style: rand 17.6825, krone 11.0184, SEK 10.5956, forint 373.10, zloty 4.0319, koruna 23.4329, RUB 96.59, yen 153.03, sing 1.3219, HKD 7.7700, INR 84.08, China 7.1296, peso 20.03, BRL 5.7217, BBDXY 1,262.59, Dollar Index 104.51, Oil $70.45, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $34.36, Platinum $1,026.00, Palladium $1,071.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold… $2,743.46

That’s it for today… It wasn’t as warm outside yesterday as the previous days, but still nice enough so that I could get outside and do some reading…  i like to read outside because of being one with nature, and the fact that if I read outside, I don’t get sleepy… If I read inside, I won’t get past 1 chapter before falling asleep… My neighbors, Paul and Lenore came over to say hi… I hadn’t seen them since before I went to Ireland… They asked me when Kathy was returning, and I honestly said, “I don’t know”…  Well, I learned yesterday that I’m going to have to contact MD Anderson in Houston and see if they’ll see me again…. I just get all the fun trips, don’t I?   NOT!  The Straubs take us to the finish line today, with their song: Autumn… This is a classic rock song….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to go higher to overbought, per Chuck!
• A $100 Trillion Time Bomb is ticking…. Who will blink first?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, a PT guy came to the house yesterday, sent by my doctors, to get me strong again… I told the PT that my youngest son was a PT, and he about turned around and left, but then I told him that my son hadn’t checked with me, so he was more than welcome to begin… I passed all the tests! I even blew the guy away with my balance! And That, was the highlight of my day! I did sit outside and read again, marking two days in a row of me getting outside… It’s the little things that I work toward these days….  Uriah Heap greets me this morning with their 70’s anthem song: July Morning… This is the song that I quote the lyrics to the first Pfennig of July… 

Well, I have to say that the dollar bugs have got me… They’ve got me for being so jaded about the dollar’s current rally… They just had to prove to me that it was real, and that, they did yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points to 1,257… Now, all I ask, is that one of these dollar bugs to explain why they should be buying the dollar, and I’ll give up dissing the dollar… But seeing that’s not going to happen (explanation and me stop dissing the dollar) I’m just wasting my time and yours…  I guess the dollar bugs believe all the political nonsense that the U.S. economy is working in all facets… If that had even an inkling of truth to it, Gold wouldn’t be hitting new all-time highs… 

Speaking of Gold… Yesterday morning Gold was continuing its rally from last week, until it wasn’t… Something stopped Gold’s run and by mid-morning, Gold was fighting to get back to flat on the day…  Then I listened to an interview with Egon Von Greyerz  of Gold Switzerland, and he talked about how what he was seeing was a lot of his clients selling Gold to pay for housing, etc.  So, as long as this brief sell off doesn’t gain legs…  Silver did continue its rally, but fell back below $34…  James Turk of Gold/ Money had this to say about Silver: “I see $50+ silver is days or weeks away, not months.” 

Chuck again…  WOW! You know when I told a magazine years ago that Silver would trade above $50, Silver was around $40, so it wasn’t that large of a spread difference for me… The thing is, everything I read about the industrial demand for Silver overtaking a large portion of the mined Silver each year, and how dealers are having to dip into their reserves to have Silver to deliver, I can’t argue with Mr. Turk on this one….

The price of Oil remained range bound in the $70 handle yesterday, while the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.19%… This bond doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to stop the rise in its yield…  I’m just saying…  Any old way, Gold closed yesterday at $2,714.90, and Silver closed at $ 33.75…   And after all the intervention and gyrations yesterday Gold was down 2-cents, and Silver was up 7-cents…  Darn short paper traders were out in force yesterday… 

Here’s what Ed Steer had to say about that from his letter this morning: “The collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were at battle stations in the precious metals in both Globex and COMEX trading on Monday — and in overseas trading, it was most obvious in gold.

But once that phony-baloney dollar index ‘rally’ began at 8:30 a.m. in New York…they really got serious…as both these precious metals continued to rally in the face of that…plus the rise in the yields of U.S. treasuries. Shortly after the 10 a.m. EDT afternoon gold fix in London was put to bed, they leaned on both silver and gold pretty hard…especially the latter.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

I know I highlighted a quote from Andrew Maguire yesterday that talked about how strong demand has put the short paper traders on the sideline… Apparently that thought is not ready for Prime Time just yet…  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Maybe there was a realization that the dollar was overbought, as there was a spot of selling overnight… The BBDXY is down 1 index point to start our Tuesday… This is NO sign that the markets have to come to the realization that the dollar is overbought… We’ll half to see more selling in the U.S. session today for that to become a reality…  Gold is back to booking gains today and is up $18 in the early trading today, and Silver is up 60-cents this morning…  Just shows to go you, that you can’t snuff out a strong rally with just one day of intervention!   

The price of Oil has bumped higher overnight, and trades this morning with a $71 handle… Still range bound, folks… And the 10-year just keeps moving higher and trades with a 4.20% yield this morning… 

Usually, or normally in times like this with rising yields in U.S. Bonds, Gold take a backseat… But not this time, because the rising yield is a sign that there are bad times ahead for the U.S.   And gold is a better option at this point… I have something that will bust your buttons in the FWIW section today, regarding this thought… Be sure to stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

Well, the good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday, and well I have something to say about it, but first here it is “TD Bank just made headlines for pleading guilty to the crime of money laundering and a variety of other charges.

Bankers there provided services to despicable people who needed a way to recycle the cash proceeds acquired by selling everything from drugs to children.”

Chuck again…  I have to ask you, is this the kind of bank you would want to handle your money, loans, etc?  If you have serious concerns about your bank account, please go to: www.battlebank.com  and sign up to be on their wait list… Battle Bank is waiting on the FDIC to approve them to open their virtual doors…  

OK… Now back to the markets, economies and dolts…  I have all three tied up with a nice bow on top here…  first: The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Wednesday will feature a warning that public debt levels are set to reach $100 trillion this year, driven by China and the US. Talk about weighing down economies….  I’ll come back to that but first we’ve got to go to number 2:  Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in a speech on Thursday, stressed how that mountain of borrowing is weighing on the world.   As if, we didn’t know that already!  She must take us idiots!  But I’ve got news for her… We’re all on to this weighing down the world thing, and that’s why 3: Gold is setting new all-time records, coming from $1800 a year ago (in Rocktober) to more than $2,700 now… 

As far as weighing down economies go… I used to talk about his all the time until I was blue in the face… That too much debt in the U.S. didn’t allow the economy to grow, and thus the reason for our avg GDP of 2% for the last ten years! And now China has joined the ranks of indebted countries up to their collective eyeballs, that includes: The U.S., Japan, China, Eurozone, and U.K.   

The question here is: Who is going to be able to play off al this debt?  The answer to that question is: none of them! And the debts are so large that they won’t be able to inflate them away, so the only thing that’s left is a default… And then the question will be: Who will blink first?  My guess…. The U.S. 

Speaking of debt…. The U.S. Government had a report for us last week, that flew under the radar of the major media outlets, so, as usual you, dear reader, can depend on me to give the news… And here it is: the US government ran a $1.83 trillion deficit in 2024 (the government’s fiscal year ends in September). It was the third-largest deficit in US history and was up 8% from the $1.69 trillion deficit last year.  Yes, the Budgeting people keep telling us that we’re at the point where the annual deficit numbers will multiply… So, I can hardly wait for next year’s deficit number to be announced… NOT!  

The euro continues to wallow in the mud that has been created by the European Central Bank (ECB ) And the outlook for the euro is not good, as most observers see the ECB cutting rates a few more times in the coming months, thus keeping the pressure on the euro… 

The Petrol Currencies have taken their collective gut punches in the last couple of weeks, and now they are licking their wounds from the double whammy of a strong dollar and weak Oil price… I’m talking about the ruble, krone, loon, peso, rand, and others… Time to batten down the hatches here and wait this out… This currency environment will not continue for months, in my opinion… So, what’s the pain in battening down the hatches for a few weeks? 

The dollar, to me, looks to be overstretched at this point…  If I had a Bloomberg Terminal like I used to have when I was on the trading desk at EverBank World Markets, I would run the RSI on the dollar and I’m sure it would show me that the dollar was overbought… RSI is the Relative Strength Index….   So, take that with as many grains of salt that you wish, but I’m seldom incorrect on these calls… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Sept. Leading Indicators and they actually printed worse than expected or last month, which was negative -.3%… In Sept they fell further in negative territory to negative -.5%…  This from the U.S. Conference Board: ““Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid.”

Chuck again… Sure doesn’t sound like an economy that’s hitting on all eight to me! 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has a Fed Head speaker on the circuit… 

To recap… The dollar continued to rally throughout the day yesterday, and Chuck challenges a dollar bull to explain why they are buying dollars right now….   Gold’s early morning gains were erased during the day yesterday, it could have ben profit taking, or short paper trading, take your pick… Silver continued its rally, but fell back below $34 on the day… TD Bank now joins the ranks of Banks with felony records…  Chuck offers up a different bank that you won’t ever see on that list… 

For What It’s Worth…. Ok, I talked a ton about the Debt this morning, and then I saw this post, and it’s my former colleague, Aaron Stevenson’s favorite Bank (NOT!), Bank of America with a warning about how Gold is more of a safe haven than Treasuries, and it can be found here: Bank of America: Gold is the ‘Last Safe Haven’ Amid Rising U.S. Debt – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: In a stark assessment of the current economic landscape, Bank of America has issued a warning that gold may be the last remaining safe haven for investors as the United States grapples with an ever-increasing national debt. This pronouncement comes as the precious metal continues to set new record highs, reflecting growing concerns about the stability of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.

Bank of America’s analysts paint a troubling picture of the U.S. fiscal situation. The national debt, which recently surpassed $35.7 trillion, is projected to reach unprecedented levels over the next three years. This trajectory has altered the traditional relationship between gold and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, making the metal increasingly attractive to investors seeking stability.

In a significant shift, Bank of America suggests that gold has become a safer investment option than U.S. Treasury bonds. This change is attributed to the mounting risks associated with what the bank describes as an “impending debt crisis.” As the U.S. continues to accumulate debt at an alarming rate, the perceived safety of government bonds is being called into question.

The bank’s analysis highlights a concerning lack of fiscal discipline in the political sphere. Neither of the current US presidential candidates appears poised to address the debt issue meaningfully. In fact, their economic plans are expected to further exacerbate the problem, potentially pushing the national debt to even greater heights.”

Chuck Again…  Well, bust my buttons! I can’t believe that a major Bank is making this statement, because all they’ve done in the past is dis Gold, called it barbaric, and other names, and tried to get their banking clients to look to other forms of investment… This is a major shift, folks… And one that should not be ignored…  ping, ping ping… What’s the sound? It’s the warning from the backing up truck! 

Market prices 10/22/2024: American Stye: A$ .6687, kiwi .6053, C$ 7230, euro 1.0827, sterling 1.2978, Swiss $1.1557, European Style: rand 17.5779, krone 10.9183, SEK 10.5360, forint 370.03, zloty 3.9942, koruna 23.3383, RUB 95.48, yen 150.91, sing 1.3155, HKD 7.7736, INR 84.07, China 7.1209, peso 19.92, BRL 5.6953, BBDXY 1,256.27, Dollar Index 103.77, Oil $71.22, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $34.45, Platinum $1,021.00, Palladium $1,078.00, Copper $4.39, and Gold… $2,734.82

That’s it for today… Darling Daughter, Dawn, called last night to see if I needed her to deliver some dinner to me… I told her that was nice to offer, and then thought to myself that: if I wanted dinner delivered, I would just go to Door Dash APP!) Besides she has to cook two dinners a lot of nights, because of her kids’ different schedules…  I booked two more doctor appts for me next week, which makes 3 of them on Tuesday!  One of them is an appt with a new doctor at SLU, for a second opinion, on the tumor in my mouth…  The results of the echocardiogram I had last week were back, and they weren’t good… The fluid around my heart hasn’t budged / got smaller. So, third appt next week is with the doc who wants to do surgery to remove the fluid… UGH! Oh well, it is what it is… The Little River Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Lonesome Loser…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler