Author: admin

• metals take no names!
• The manipulation of metals continues

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!   I have a very long FWIW for you today… I’ll give a recap of the markets I follow and then onto the FWIW… Bill Weathers greets me this morning with his song: Lovely Day… 

Yesterday, in the markets, the dollar recovered the index point in the BBDXY that it had lost the night before, and ended the day at 1,209…  The metals were quite busy yesterday with large gains, and large, short sales butting heads… Gold round up closing up $88 to close at $4,598… And Silver, closed up $5.43 to end at $85.39…  Both Gold & Silver were up much larger amounts, before the SPTs stepped in to make sure that Gold didn’t close above $4,600 and Silver above $86… But they did still have banner days, and we can’t get all too upset about the SPT’s move… 

Here’s Kitco.com’s Jim Wycoff, “Keen rtisk aversion in markets as Federal Reserve served grand jury subpoenas. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday the U.S. Department of Justice has served the Federal Reserve with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over Powell’s testimony last summer about the Fed’s building renovations. “The move represents an unprecedented escalation in President Donald Trump’s battle with the Fed, an independent agency he has repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers,” said the Associated Press.”

Chuck again… first, geopolitical saber rattling pushed the metals higher on Sunday night, and then yesterday we had this nonsense going on and the markets freaked out…    I read where the next stop for Gold is $4,770…  Gold would take that out in a NY Minute, if not for SPTs! 

Two weeks into 2026, and Gold & Silver seem to have weathered the early headwinds of tax loss selling, portfolio rebalancing and precious-metal volatility with three new all-time-highs, I can’t wait to see where they go from here… 

And the shortage in Silver that I’ve talked about for a few years now, is really beginning to show its cards… here’s moneymetals.com with a thought on Silver: “The underlying issue is that there are true shortages beginning to manifest.

Silver demand has outstripped supply for four straight years, and the Silver Institute projects that 2025 will be the fifth. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces in 2024. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.

This inventory tightness globally seems to have created an unusual setup in COMEX futures, as investors appear to be moving March contracts backward to January and February.”  

This shortage is real folks, and should underpin Silver all the way up until the shortage is resoloved. I’ve always kept this lesson from my dad in mind… There are no such things as shortages, only items that are need of a price adjustment…  And Silver is finally getting its price adjustment! 

The price of Oil bumped back higher to a $59 handle yesterday, and the 10-year continued to rise, ending the day trading with a 4.18% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar continued on its way to a brief rally, as it gained another index point to start the day at 1,210…  I don’t get why the dollar bugs have decided to push up the dollar at this time, but it is what it is…  Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning is down $$13 to start the day, and Silver is on the rally tracks again this morning and is up $41 -cents this morning.  

The price of Oil has risen to trade with a $60 handle overnight…  And the Petrol Currencies are liking the rise in price for sure!  The leader of the Petrol Currencies is the Russian ruble, so there’s that…  And the 10-year’s yield has risen to a 4.20% yield…  The bond boys are really pushing the envelope here with the Fed Heads, don’t you think? I do, and that’s all that matters here.. HAHAHAHA! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard sees the STUPID CPI for Dec this morning, So get ready for a piece of data that’s full of lies and false numbers.. That’s what the markets get all giddy about… I don’t think they really think about what’s in the soup… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar pushed higher yesterday after getting sold the previous night. The metals kicked some dollar tail yesterday and took names later… Gold closed up $88 and Silver $5.43, but their respective gains would have been even greater if for no STPs entering the markets…  I read where the next stop for Gold is $4,770… If for no STPs, Gold would take that out soon enough! 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve waited for years for Kitco.com to print an article that talks of price manipulation in the metals, and finally, I saw one! The Good folks at GATA sent me this and I immediately went to the site and read it… This is a great article and it can be found here: Silver price suppression: is the bull still roaring or the bear reawakening? | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Silver was among the best-performing asset classes of 2025, alongside platinum and gold mining equities. With gains of 148% in U.S. Dollar terms and 118% in Euro terms, the precious metal significantly outperformed equity markets as well as Bitcoin. The rally was particularly pronounced in December, when silver surged by 25% alone. Both December and the full year 2025 ended with silver priced at $71.50 per troy ounce.

At its peak, silver temporarily reached $84 per ounce, and in China even the equivalent of $89 per ounce. Notably, the previous nominal high from 1980 – $54.50 per ounce – had only been exceeded a few weeks earlier.

This spectacular rally until shortly after Christmas was abruptly interrupted. On Monday, December 29, silver fell by nearly 10% within just over an hour during early morning trading in Australia. This sharp decline raises important questions, most notably whether the move may have been driven by deliberate price manipulation.

A Brief History of Precious Metals Price Manipulation

Price manipulation in the precious metals markets is not a rumor; it has been established repeatedly in courts of law. Fines and settlement payments in the tens and hundreds of millions of dollars have been imposed on institutions such as Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and Scotiabank. In several cases, multi-year prison sentences were handed down to individuals involved in the manipulation of precious metals prices. Most cases involved downward price pressure rather than upward distortion. In addition to private actors, government institutions have also influenced prices, most notably the gold price.

On August 5, 1993, the longest systematic suppression of the gold price began. It lasted for more than two decades. Initially, it prevented gold from trading above $400 per ounce until 1996 and subsequently pushed the price down to around $250 per ounce by 2001. Price interventions also occurred during the gold bull market after 2001, when prices eventually rose to nearly $2,000 per ounce by 2011. During that phase, the objective was not to stop the overall upward trend, but rather to prevent excessively rapid price increases occurring at sensitive times – particularly during crises, presumably to calm market participants.

One explicit motive for price suppression was articulated by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on May 18, 1993, nearly three months before the start of the suppression campaign. His statement can be found in minutes published five years later. He said the following in the context of inflationary risks, with the word “thermometer” referring to the price of gold: “If we are dealing with psychology, then the thermometers one uses to measure it have an effect. I was raising the question on the side with Governor Mullins of what would happen if the Treasury sold a little gold in this market. There’s an interesting question here because if the gold price broke in that context, the thermometer would not be just a measuring tool. It would basically affect the underlying psychology.” Greenspan was thus contemplating gold sales to prevent a rapidly rising price, as such a move would have signaled inflation. The intention was to dampen inflation expectations and, in turn, influence the behavior of savers, businesses, and workers.

Price manipulation can therefore influence precious metals markets for many years, making it one of the most important factors affecting the price. For investors, this raises the question of whether the late-December 2025 price decline was manipulated – and to what extent similar interventions could shape prices in the coming months. In recent years, such manipulations have become relatively rare, with only a few suspected cases. Notably, during silver’s surge to its 2011 high, prices were not suppressed; however, afterwards, the market was demonstrably subjected to systematic manipulation.

Unlike consumable commodities, precious metals can be suppressed for extended periods by influencing inventory and storage dynamics. In contrast, attempts to suppress prices in crude oil, for example, would quickly lead to increased consumption, thereby counteract the effect. I have discussed precious metals manipulation in detail in my book The Gold Cartel (Palgrave Macmillan). The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has been investigating gold price manipulation since 1998.

Intraday Price Action in Late December 2025

Let us turn to silver’s price behavior near its year-end high in 2025. The chart illustrates the intraday spot silver price movement from Tuesday, December 23, through the holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, December 24, and the subsequent trading day on Friday, December 26, extending to Sunday, December 28, 2025, when the price peak occurred. All intraday prices are shown in New York time. As a result, price data already appears on Sunday afternoon, corresponding to the start of Monday morning trading in Australia, while it is still Sunday on the U.S. East Coast.

Silver at its 2025 high, in U.S. Dollar per troy ounce, December 23-28, 2025

It is clearly visible how the price surged sharply in a short period of time from $72 per troy ounce on Wednesday before the Christmas day to $84 per ounce after the weekend on Sunday in New York (Monday morning in Australia). This was followed by the previously mentioned sharp decline during early morning trading in Australia, when silver fell by nearly 10% within just over an hour.”

Chuck again… This article goes on, and I highly recommend you clicking the link above and reading it in its entirety… 

Market Prices 1/13/2026: American Style: A$ .6701, kiwi .5760, C$ .7204, euro 1.1662, sterling 1.3468, Swiss $1.2522, European Style: rand 16.4577, krone 10.0954, SEK 9.1895,  forint 331.48, zloty 3.6100, koruna 20.7892, RUB 78.59, yen 158.90, sing 1.2873, HKD 7.8021, INR 90.19, China 6.9756, peso 17.91, BRL 5.3804, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 98.97, Oil $60.58, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $85.80, Platinum $2,347.00, Palladium $1,857.00, Copper $6.06, and Gold… $4,586

That’s it for today…  The Divisional Rounds of the NFL Playoffs are set…  The games on Sat and Sun were outstanding, except the last game, which was a dud… We got a new cable system here and had to have a technician come out and activate it… he said, “Well, so far they can’t replace me with AI”… I said, not yet! My wife gave me the “I can’t believe you just said that look”… Oh well, I call ’em the way I see ’em… that’s for sure! The Outsiders take us to the finish line today with their song: Time Won’t Let Me… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Metals end the week strong…
• The shorts are dwindling…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a beautiful week that just ended yesterday, weather-wise down here… All seashells and balloons…Today, is my oldest son’s Birthday… Happy Birthday, Andrew!  My digestive system problems have abated, and if I felt any better, I would go out dancing! (not really, but you get the gist) The National Championship College Football Game is set… The current powerhouse Indiana team VS the former powerhouse team Miami… I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a college team so dominant as Indiana… Just shows to go ya, that money buys good football players… I’m just saying… The Beatles greet me this morning with their song: Golden Slumbers…

Well, The Jobs Jamboree last Friday, was not a good reading, but the dollar bugs latched onto it and said, “with no labor disaster, the Fed Heads will pause rate cuts” and with that the dollar rallied going into the weekend the BBDXY stood at 1,209…  That’s a far cry from the dollar’s year-end figure of 1,198…  Here’s the skinny on the Jobs Jamboree: 

the BLS reported that in December the US gained 50K jobs…  And here’s where the games are played with the numbers… The change in total non-farm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported. So, their monthly prints of jobs created have now been revised lower in every single month of 2025. 

So, back to their old Job Creation tricks for the BLS… Report a strong number one month and revise it downward the following months under the guise of “it’s just a revision”… But, the markets don’t care about revisions, their only focus is on what’s going on now…   So, I’d bet a shiny quarter that this month’s 50K total will be revised downward next month, if I were a betting man… 

Oh, and this last thing about employment in 2025… Last year was the worst year for job creation since 2009, excluding the 2020 pandemic year. Now, that’s saying something, and once again I will point out that the Fed/Cabal/Cartel’s rate cuts aren’t going to help this scenario one iota!   But I’m just a lonely voice out in the wilderness trying to get my point across, but the markets don’t listen…. I’m just saying… 

And the rate cuts debase the dollar, and… invite inflation into the country…  But the Fed Heads don’t care about inflation right now… Their absence of mind will come back to haunt them, but we’ll have to wait for that… 

Gold & Silver didn’t care about false numbers and recovered the selloff from Thursday for Silver… Gold had rallied $23 on Thursday, but many dollars from its intraday high, as the SPTs took aim at Gold’s rally…  To me, it was interesting that the SPTs laid into Gold, but allowed it to close above $4,500 on the day… The brunt of their selling was in Silver, and Silver lost $1.22 on the day… But as I just said, on Friday, Silver recovered its loss and gained $2.87 to end the week at $79.96, and Gold gained $31 to end the week at $4,510… 

My good friends, and former publishers, The Aden Sisters are true believers of the charts, and they told their readers last week that, “Gold, meanwhile, remains firmly near the highs.   The market will remain very strong by staying above $69 for silver, $4300 for gold, 690 for the HUI index, $1770 for platinum, and $1650 for palladium.”

And this from Kitco.com: “The resilience of silver has been particularly impressive as short-term downside risks have started to pile up in the marketplace. The gray metal has bounced back from its sharp drop last week after the CME Group raised margin requirements to tamp down speculative momentum.

 For many analysts the play book that they were using last year remains relevant, which means dips will be bought fairly quickly.

Specifically for silver, it is difficult to see any significant downside as industrial consumption and investor demand continue to compete for dwindling supplies. No silver mine can be built in the next couple of months to alleviate the ongoing supply crunch — no matter how much the market might wish otherwise. “

Chuck again… I know, a long-winded start to the letter today with the metals, but I needed to get all that in for you someplace, so why not at the beginning?

And my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, the lead man at Battle Bank, sent me this from Grant’s letter: “Index-tracking commodity focused funds are unloading $5.6 billion in gold and $6.1 billion in silver holdings over the week through Jan. 15 as part of their annual rebalancing, analysts at JPMorgan calculate, after the major price run-ups pushed that cohort’s holdings above their target allocation”

Chuck again, that means… That there will be pressure on the metals this week, and will require tons of physical demand to offset it…  So, don’t panic if you see some drops this week, they won’t last long, in my humble opinion…. 

The price of Oil bumped higher to end the week with a $59 handle…  And the 10-year ended the week trading with a 4.17% yield… 

The other item that I wanted to mention this morning regarding metals is that from the looks of the days to cover graph that Ed Steer provides every Saturday in his letter, www.edsteergoldsilver.com. The days of production in Silver have fallen from the 180’s a few months ago, to a 128 as of last week… That means the short positions are either maturing or getting closed out… And the latter of the two is what I think is going on… I’ve talked about a “short squeeze” and this report really illustrates that… Silver is the item that gets sold short the most… It is reported that Bank of America has one heck of a short position, and then there’s JP Morgan’s short position that is monstrous… They reported that the closed out their shorts, but I don’t believe them one iota… But the key here for Silver is that the shorts are dwindling… And that’s a really good thing!

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar got sold and it appears that its brief return to the rally wagon is over… The BBDXY starts the day/ week at 1,208, and the currencies have been awakened.  The metals are screaming higher to start the day/ week this morning… Gold is up $76, and Silver is up $4.19!  Copper is roaring again, and so is Platinum and Palladium.  There was more saber rattling from the U.S. over the weekend and those geopolitical problems are really fueling the run upward of the metals this morning.  Tje folks in the Eurozone are not taking the POTUS’s comments about Greenland as false bravado, and are really steamed about his comments… This is going to get very interesting, don’t you think?

The price of Oil slipped back to start the day/ week with a $58 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is on the rise again and starts the day/ week trading with a 4.17% yield…  I have something for you later on Treasuries, so stay tuned, same Bat Time, same Bat Channel. 

I mentioned inflation above… and I came across this on Kitco.com: “Year-ahead inflation expectations in January held steady at 4.2%. “This is the lowest reading since January 2025 but remains well above that month’s 3.3%,” Hsu wrote. “Long-run inflation expectations ticked up slightly from 3.2% in December to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.” -Kitco.com

Chuck again… That’s quite a rise from 3.3% to 4.2% in inflation, don’t you think? And the Fed Heads keep cutting interest rates… Go Figure… 

With the dollar back on the rally wagon, again…  The currencies were all looking pekid again… For instance, for a couple of days last week the A$ rose above the .67-cent figure, but then retreated…  The euro had been flexing its muscles above the 1.17 figure, but now the euro too has retreated… So, this is was just another of those short term rallies for the dollar, in my opinion… The dollar has too many other problems to deal with… And one of them is…

The U.S. will have over $9 Trillion in maturities of bonds this year…. this from YouTube.com… “Nearly $9 trillion of the national debt must be refinanced or paid back, and almost no one is talking about what that actually means. That’s about ¼ of the entire debt stock… 

This isn’t about politics. It’s about math. Decades of borrowing collided with higher rates, shrinking demand for U.S. debt, and a global financial system already stretched thin. As refinancing costs explode, the pressure shifts to taxpayers, consumers, markets, and the dollar itself. From bond auctions to inflation risks, from government spending cuts to emergency interventions—this is where theory meets reality.”

Chuck again… This is serious stuff folks… When the plandemic hit, the issuing of debt changed, and we, as a country began to issue short-term Bills and notes and they took over the brunt of our financing in place of long bonds… The problem with that is that they come due long before long bonds do… And this year, nearly $9 Trillion of them come due and will have to be refinanced, at higher rates, and what that will do to our Debt is explode it higher…  Like I said above the dollar has problems, far too many to list too! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty today, but tomorrow’s Cupboard has the Stupid CPI for Dec… So the markets will be rapt awaiting for that data… Me? I’ll shrug it off because it’s all made up of false numbers and useless as far as I’m concerned… 

To recap… Siver got sold on Thursday, but came back with vengeance on Friday, and closed the week so close to $80 that it could spit in the $80’s backyard!   Gold rallied on both days, but also saw a ton of SPT’s short trading thrown in, but closed the week above $4,500, so there’s that…  The dollar is on the rally tracks again, but Chuck thinks it will be short-lived… And our country will have to deal with nearly $9 Trillion in maturities this year… Good luck with that!

For What It’s Worth… I found this last Friday, and after all I talked about Silver last week, I thought this would be good pfodder… It’s about the volatility of Silver and it can be found here: Extreme silver price volatility likely to persist in 2026, China controls risk market fragmentation – Goldman Sachs | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Persistently thin silver inventories mean prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to flows, increasing both upside potential and downside risk for the gray metal, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

“Thinner inventories have created conditions for squeezes, where rallies accelerate as investor flows absorb remaining metal in the London vaults and reverse sharply when tightness eases,” Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a Wednesday note.

The analysts said that the price turbulence is not being driven by a global shortage of silver, but by localized supply bottlenecks that are keeping the market distorted.

Silver supplies in London, where the global benchmark price is set, are unusually low after much of the metal was moved into U.S. vaults last year amid concerns that the Trump administration could impose trade tariffs.

Silver’s historic 2025 rally was driven by investor inflows tied to safe-haven buying, Fed rate cut expectations, and asset diversification, they said, but the London squeeze is amplifying the impact of these moves.

Thomas and Struyven said that under normal conditions, a weekly net demand of 1,000 metric tons would lift silver prices by around 2%, but in the current environment, Goldman estimates that sensitivity has surged to about 7%. The analysts warned that these extreme price moves will likely persist – in both directions.

And even at these all-time high prices, the analysts said investor’s demand may not be overstretched. They point out that silver ETF holdings remain below their 2021 peak, and could rise higher on the back of rate cuts and investor diversification.”

Chuck again… This was interesting, especially coming from Lola, aka, Goldman Sachs…  I’ve chronicled the short squeeze previously here, so you shouldn’t be surprised at the mention of that phenomenon.. 

Market Prices 1/12/2026: American Style: A$ .6707, kiwi .5759, C$ .7205, euro 1.1683, sterling 1.3467, Swiss $1.2540, European Style: rand 16.4195, krone 10.0680, SEK 9.1638, forint 331.12, zloty 3.6024, koruna 20.7913, RUB 78.74, yen 157.83, sing 1.2855, HKD 7.7968, INR 90.16, China 6.9731, peso 17.90, BRL 5.3599, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.79, Oil $58.70, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $84.16, Platinum $2,359.00, Palladium $1.791.00, Copper $6.03, and Gold… $4,586

That’s it for today… Happy Birthday to Andrew again… It was a day of a heavy snowstorm the day he was born… I still remember the look of happiness and joy in his older sister’s face when we went to the florist the next day to buy Kathy some flowers, She told everyone there, that she was now a big sister! She was only 2 ½ years older than her new baby brother.. Memories… I hope to God that I never lose those memories, they are a fabric of my life…  I hope your Birthday is grand, Andrew! Our Billikens won on Saturday, but my beloved Mizzou Tigers lost on the road at Ole Miss… Poor foul shooting was their bane… I have a story about sitting next to the old St Louis U coach, Charlie Spoonhour that I’ll share with you someday… Carlos Santana takes us to the finish line today with his song: Europa (Earth’s Cry) it’s an instrumental so no singing along for me this morning… I love Carlos Santana’s guitar playing… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Wednesday
• Silver miners are printing cash!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I got my laptop back in working order yesterday, thanks to my good friend Rick B!  He was a lifesaver as far as I was concerned, for I was ready to go bananas, if not already!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won in Kentucky last night, and the StL Billikens won at VCU last night, I was going back and forth on their games, which ended about the same time… The Steve Miller Band (Stevie Guitar Miller) greet me this morning with their song: Livin’ In The U.S.A… 

Well, Wednesday wasn’t a good day for Gold & Silver, but a good day for the dollar… Makes you wonder doesn’t it? I told you yesterday morning that the SPTs were back and taking a pound of flesh from Gold & Silver, and nothing changed much as the day went along… The dollar rose to end the day at 1,207… And that rise was questionable…  Yous see, the Fed Heads have said that they were cutting rates because of the declining labor situation in the U.S. And then yesterday, the ADP Employment Report showed that only 41,000 new hires were taken on in Dec.  

Now, that would mean that the Fed Heads had more rate cuts up their sleeves… And THAT should have been a death knell for the dollar… Instead the dollar rallied…  So, to me, this was the work of the PPT, making certain that the dollar didn’t fall like a rock off a side of a cliff…  So, there you have a synopsis of the markets that I care about from yesterday… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $56 handle yesterday, and the 10-year stayed trading with a 4.14% yield…  No changes here… So, no manipulation here… 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, the SPTs are not backing off and have taken Silver down over $3 overnight, and Gold down $41… Gold & Silver aren’t the only metals that have had to deal with the SPTs, Platinum and Copper are also on the SPTs list of metals to short… UGH!  This from Kitco.com “On Wednesday, commodity analysts at TD Securities published their latest trade, saying they were shorting silver futures and looking for sharply lower prices within the next three months as market fundamentals start to balance out.”  

Chuck again, they are calling for Silver to retreat to $40…  I hope they get their $*# handed to them on Silver platter! 

The dollar gained another index point overnight, and starts today at 1,208 in the BBDXY… I really can’t get my arms around this dollar strength, with the labor market not showing any signs of recovering, and the Fed Heads saying they are cutting rates to alleviate the labor shortage…. The two don’t mix, and that’s why it’s so confusing… 

The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.16% overnight, so apparently the Fed Heads weren’t in doing yield control overnight… And the price of Oil remains in the $56 handle…  Did you hear that the U.S. seized two tankers yesterday, one of them under a Russian Flag? I don’t like that one bit, for lessor things have caused wars to break out… I’m just saying… 

So, now, the U.S. is going to recover Oil revenue from Oil taken from Venezuela…  But, to me, this is going to take SOME TIME, and not going to be a today thing for the U.S. revenues… But then, that’s just me, thinking logically… 

But the thought here is that it will reduce the price of gas in U.S. to help families struggling to make ends meet now…   Which is way the price of Oil is falling… The key here is the words “now” and “some time”… They don’t mesh… I’m just saying… 

So, this week I’ve been talking a lot about Silver and its prospects looking forward in 2026..  And then I saw this article from the good folks at GATA… ” Silver miners have begun to print money”…  Yes, it’s been lagging the earnings of the mining companies, but with Silver in a shortage, and the price of Silver going through the roof, it was only a matter of time before the Mining Cos began to book profits…  here’s a snippet from the article: “People unfamiliar with mining may think the industry’s profits jumped in line with these price increases.

But thats not how it works. Profitability is increasing by multiples of the underlying metals. Especially for silver.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) is a large silver and gold miner (disclosure: I own it, along with most other big silver producers).

In the company’s most recent investor presentation, they show how much it costs them to mine each ounce of gold and silver. This is known as the all-in sustaining cost (AISC).

 In Q1 of 2024, Pan American was mining silver at a cost of around $16.68 per ounce. They sold silver during that quarter at an average price of $22.61 per ounce.

So in Q1 2024, they made a profit margin of roughly $6 per ounce.

By Q3 of 2025, the price of silver rose to an average of around $39/oz. Pan American’s AISC decreased slightly, so their profit per ounce rose to $23. An almost 4x increase from Q1 2024.

When the company reports Q4 earnings, that profit per ounce will rise more.

And if silver stays around the current $80 level, and their costs stay around $16/oz, the profit/oz will rise to a crazy $64/oz.”

Now, I’m not here to talk stocks, but to point out that the Silver miners are printing money… And that bodes well for the future price of Silver, as these miners will want to squeeze as much blood out of this turnip that it can… I’m just saying… 

This has been Silver Week in the Pfennig… and I hope you have enjoyed it!

OK, onto the currencies… With the dollar getting bought yesterday (by the PPT per Chuck) the currencies had to retreat from their lofty figures from Monday…  The Chinese renminbi continues to improve in price VS the dollar, and as I said last week, it appears the Chinese are not concerned about the level of their currency as their exports continue to rise… 

The euro has remained below the 1.17 figure, but has stayed withing range that to reach that level again won’t require a complete failing of the dollar… The euro closed yesterday at 1.1680… Longtime reader, Bob, sent me a link to a video that explained that 14 nations are leaving the dollar after our invasion of Venezuela…  YIKES! Oh, well, the best laid plans of mice and men…   No wonder the PPT had to step in and provide the dollar a prop…  I’m just saying… 

I just read an article about “why smaller houses can lead to happier lives”…  And something hit me…  Why didn’t I move from my small home years ago, into a McMansion, when I very easily could have?.. Because a larger home was not going to buy us happiness… We were a family of 5 living in a 3 bedroom house, so what did we do? We built another bedroom in the basement and made do… So, I get the the premise of the article and agree with it  100%!

But so many Americans didn’t use their frugal side of the brain back in the day, and now they have a this Monstrous size home, and it’s just them… The kids moved on, and so on…     And now… well, now things aren’t calling for a McMansion house any longer… What to do?

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned ADP Employment Report that wasn’t good news for the economy, but also had the Nov Factory Orders and they too, were not good news for the economy as they showed a negative -1.3%… And then the Jobs Openings number showed a narrowing of the total from 7.9 Million to 7.1 Million… On the outside you might think, that’s good… But the decline wasn’t from citizens getting new jobs, but by Companies removing their want ads…   That’s a completely different story…  And one that’s not good for the economy…

To recap… The SPTs made their presence felt yesterday, and sold Gold & Silver short throughout the day… Silver got the brunt of the short selling, but Gold wasn’t far behind…  Chuck believes that the PPT came in and intervened in the currency markets and bought dollars to keep it from falling too far too fast… And Chuck talks about McMansions, and how countries are leaving the dollar due to the U.S. invasion of Venezuela… 

For What It’s Worth…  I guess I could have used the GATA report above about the Silver miners here, but I think I have something better… This is from MarketWatch.com and is about how the manufacturing sector still is not coming back, as was the plan of the POTUS… And it can be found here: U.S. manufacturing slump shows little sign of ending, ISM shows – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “A closely watched index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 47.9% in December, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. This is the lowest reading of the year and the 10th straight month of contraction in the factory sector.

Any number below 50% signals contraction.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal were expecting some stability in December, with the index forecast to inch up to 48.3% from 48.2% in the prior month.

“We still see weak demand,” with uncertainty from tariffs holding down activity, said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee.

The ISM surveys executives every month about how their companies are doing. Business isn’t getting any better, they say.

“In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall,” one manufacturing executive told ISM. “Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products.

In November, layoffs impacted about 9 percent of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe.”

Key details: New orders shrank for the fourth month in a row. Production dropped to 51% from 51.4% in the prior month.

The employment index rose 0.9 percentage point to 44.9 in the month.

Only two of 19 manufacturing industries reported growth in December.

Looking ahead: New orders need to rise to pull the manufacturing sector out of the slump, Spence said.

“I firmly believe when new orders start turning around … and expand for three, four, five months — then you’re going to see it flow to production as backlog and then everything should follow,” she said.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said “the manufacturing sector is sick” and does not appear to be responding well to President Donald Trump’s economic policies.”

Chuck Again… So much for that resilient economy that the guy talked about yesterday, eh? And once again, the best laid plans of mice and men, often leave sorrow instead of joy… 

Market Prices 1/8/2026: American Style: A$ .6675, kiwi .5749, C$ .7210, euro 1.1673,  sterling 1.3443, Swiss $1.2539, European Style: rand 16.5723, krone 10.0994, SEK 9.2158, forint 329.71, zloty 3.6059, koruna 20.8003, RUB 80.24, yen 156.76, sing 1.2842, HKD 7.7921, INR 90.02, China 6.9824, peso 17.96, BRL 5.3909, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.76, Oil $56.85, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $74.55, Platinum $2,179.00, Palladium $1,728.00, Copper $5.85, and Gold… $4,415

That’s it for today… I was up until 4 am last night… darn steroids… I’m on the last few days of them now, so hopefully my sleep pattern gets back to normal..  There are some strange stories in the middle of the night to read, that’s for sure!  Big wins last night for the Tigers and Billikens… They both have good seasons going so far… We went to dinner last night with our good friend, Gus from Long Island, and it was yummy! Gus owns the famous Candy Kitchen on Long Island and he’s been coming down here in the winter longer than I have! The Candy Kitchen is famous for the home made ice cream…  I love to get their blueberry pancakes when I’m there… All this talk is making me hungry, I had better stop.. Montrose takes us to the finish line today with their song: Rock Candy… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Good Day… and a Tim Terrific Tuesday to you!  Well, my first day down here in S Florida was good. I went out to the deck by the ocean and read for a couple of hours, soaking up some vitamin D… I got my TV to connect to the internet, so now I’m able to stream, but my laptop is AWOL.. So therefore, I’ll have to shorten the letter again this morning as I cannot work on my laptop as usual. Typing on an iPad is ridiculous, I don’t know how people do it. But, I struggle through despite my shortcomings. The Guess Who greet me this morning with their song: No Sugar Tonight 

Well, I told you yesterday that the year normally starts with everyone puffing out their chests, and bragging about this will be the dollar’s year, and by the end of the month those folks are nowhere to be seen or heard… Well, it didn’t wait until the end of the month to take the dollar to the woodshed. Yesterday, after seeing the dollar rise to 1,207 in the BBDXY, it turned around and ended the day at 1,203… Down 4 index points from its high earlier in the day.

I don’t think someone thought it through regarding “running Venezuela “.. and the dollar bugs were confused how that would be accomplished? And let the anti-dollar bugs seize the day..

Gold & Silver were at it early yesterday, as I told you how the Chinese took offense at the SPTs in the West, and said ” We’re not going to be pushed around any longer ” and the metals continued to rally throughout the day… 

Gold gained $2.52to end the day at $4,448… Silver gained $2.52 to close the day at $76.55…

To me, and I’ve explained this before, that we shouldn’t think of Gold risking price, but the dollar losing purchasing power. Same with Silver…But for those of us keeping score at home , we want to know the level of the two major metals at all times… I say, buy it and forget it! But that doesn’t make the headlines… 

Platinum has really been in the shopping baskets of the metals buyers in recent days… And Copper? Well, Copper traded over $6 yesterday… the shortage in Copper is really playing out now, eh?

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $58 handle… Oil shipments around the world are going to chaos, with a Capital C!

The 10-year Treasury saw a little buying, or yield control by the Fed Heads, or just geopolitical strains from the U. S.’s incursion into Venezuela, and the yield on the bond ended the day trading with a 4.17% yield…

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought again… and the BBDXY gained 3 index points overnight… Gold continues its assault on the dollar and is up $16 to start the day, and Silver is up $1.72…

Silver is on a tear and I don’t think that anyone should standing front of this runaway bus!

The price of Oil remains trading with a $58 handle this morning and the 10-year’s yield is 4.18%…

I came across an article from a guy at Bank of America (BofA) who agrees with what I wrote last week regarding how I saw Gold continuing to rise in price in 2026, but not at the breakneck pace of 2025…I have that article in the FWIW later in the letter… That is as long as I can get the dang thing to work (iPad)

I haven’t talked about inflation much lately, but at dinner last night, our friend Cathy, was talking about how her prices for staples for her restaurant were remaining very high, and now she’s seeing shrinkflation…

Inflation was the economies in Germany, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and of course Zimbabwe… They all tried to get inflation under control, but failed and soon the inflation turned to hyperinflation and the respective currencies were toast, and so were the economies of the countries… Will this be our fate too?

The key here is that at least these countries tried to control inflation before it ran away from them. The U.S. contended with high inflation in the late 70’s and early 80’s before Paul Volcker took an axe to it with interest rates that choked the economy but… ended the chance of runaway inflation…

The U.S. also experienced high inflation when they issued the Continental dollar, yes this was in the time of revolution..,

But it’s real fact, and therefore, as they say history doesn’t always rhyme but it’s always an eye witness of repeats… at least that’s what I say…

The Continental dollar was a failure and to prevent the country from ever issuing another fiat dollar, the founders passed a law that prevented the States from coining money… and that only Gold & Silver were to be used as a payment of debts…

Since our leaders have thrown the Constitution out the window we don’t use Gold & Silver as our tender… instead we went back to a fiat currency…

This history lesson has been brought to you from Battle Bank… and Chuck! And I got a lot of this stuff from an essay by Doug Casey in his International Man letter..

Si, I ask the question… Are we to suffer a hyperinflation phase that kills the dollar and economy? You can’t think “this is America and we have always landed on our feet ” because… This time we have nearly $36 Trillion in debt that has to be financed, and to do that we need to sell Treasuries…

But if you were a long term investor from a country, would you be buying Treasuries knowing all to well that the U.S.’s leaders continue to deficit spend, and they will always be issuing more debt?

Speaking of debt in the U.S. A panel of economic luminaries said the long-run risk posed by mounting debt represented a paramount problem facing the U.S. economy… from Bloomberg.com

So, see I’m not the only one banging the drum about how the debt is going to ruin us!

Ok enough of that! The euro didn’t last long under the 1.17 figure yesterday and as long as the dollar remains getting sold the euro will benefit… Yes, the Eurozone has its own debt problem as does Japan, and the U.K., but they will falter after the U.S. shows the way….

The Chinese have figured out how to steer clear of the U.S.’s tariffs the POTUS put on their exports… Their trade surplus for the Jan/ Nov rose 5.9% year on year and surpassed the $1 Trillion mark… Their exports to the U.S. fell 29%, but their exports to S.E. Asia, Europe, and Latin America rose significantly… and I didn’t mention Africa, which the Chinese are going after diligently..,

I told you long ago that When the tariffs were announced that they wouldn’t harm China, as they would just go somewhere else for their exports… and they have!

Still no new data in the Data Calendar, but tomorrow we’ll see the color of the latest ADP Employment Report for Dec… and some other data…

To recap… the Chinese have had enough of the West’s SPTs.. the dollar got sold yesterday but got bought last night, and Chuck goes through the history of countries that got ruined by debt and inflation.

For What It’s Worth… This is the article I talked about above from BofA’s Michael Widmer head of Metals Research at BofA and can be found here: www.kitco.com

Or here’s your snippet;”Gold will remain a key portfolio hedge this year, with the yellow metal projected to average $4,538 per ounce in 2026, but history suggests silver prices could peak between $135 and $309, according to Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America.

“Gold continues to stand out as a hedge and alpha source,” Widmer said in a Monday report. Bank of America sees tightening market conditions and strong earnings sensitivity position gold as a key hedge and potential return driver in 2026.

BofA’s 2026 outlook is based on their projections of falling supply and rising costs in the gold sector. Widmer expects the 13 major North American gold miners to produce 19.2 million ounces this year, a decline of 2% from 2025, adding that most market forecasts for output are too optimistic.

Widmer said silver may appeal more to investors willing to take higher risk for extra upside, and noted that the current gold:silver ratio of around 59 suggests silver could still outperform gold. He cited the historical ratio low of 32 in 2011 as implying a silver price high of $135, while the 1980 low of 14 in the ratio suggests a silver price of $309 per ounce.

In his annual outlook webinar in December, Widmer said that gold bull rallies typically peak only when the underlying drivers that initially triggered the rally fade, and don’t end simply because prices rise.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it’s actually still underinvested,” he said. “There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Chuck Again… I like how he put the ratios to numbers…

Market Prices 1/6/2026: American Style: A$ .6721, kiwi .5788, C$ .7261, euro 1.1708, sterling 1.3524, Swiss $1.2610, European Style: Rand 16.35, krone 10.0147, SEK 9.1893, forint 328.76, zloty 3.5963, koruna 20.6745, RUB 81.03, yen 156.40, sing 1.2796, HKD 7.7877, INR 90.19, China 6.9837, peso17.98, BRL 5.4167, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.42, Oil $58.58, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $78.28, Platinum $2,324.00, Palladium $1,722.00, Copper $6.02, and Gold… $4,460

Thats It For Today… I feel like I’ve been writing for hours this morning and I have!  This is ridiculous!  I’m going out the deck and yell at the ocean!  Foghat takes us to the finish line this morning with their song: Slowride

I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday and Please Be Good To Yourself!

January 5,2026

• The year ends with a dud

• Good day… and a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy New Year, although I think those words will not ring true in 2026, but then that’s just me…  I’m in my winter home now for the next 3-4 months… I only book a one-way ticket to come here, and decide when to go home much later…  Buddy Miles greets me this morning with his song: Down By The River…
• Well, the year, 2025 ended with a whimper… Everyone who was still on a trading desk at 3pm est on Wednesday, was making certain that Gold didn’t show a gain, Silver didn’t show a gain, Copper didn’t show a gain, and etc.  With the dollar bugs, the only ones to get the asset higher in price, to end the year.  Bonds ended the year with the 10-year’s yield gaining…  And the price of Oil getting dumped on to end the year.  The year end prices were: Gold $4,317, Silver $71.54, Copper $5.64, BBDXY 1,203, Oil $57.42, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.16%
• Friday saw a hit and miss data in trading as most senior traders were still celebrating their holiday. As with the start of every year, that I recall that is, the dollar was bought on the first day of the year, and the BBDXY ended Friday at 1,204… Its seems to me that each year the dollar bugs are all out talking about how the dollar is going to be strong the coming year, and by the end of January they are nowhere to be seen or heard. I guess we’ll see what’s in store for us regarding the dollar, my guess? I tend to think that the dollar is in for a world of hurt this year… How’s that diversification out of some dollars going for you?
• I used to ask a question to the audiences that I talked to this: You don’t hold just one stock in your account, do you? You don’t wear just one set of clothes, do you? Then who among you only holds one currency? My claim to fame was diversification, no matter when the dollar was strong or weak… You need to diversify to make sure that if the dollar gets beaten to hell with hand sledge, that you don’t suffer the losses in purchasing power…  There! I’ve said enough on that!
• Oh, and where to diversify?  www.battlebank.com
• I know, I know, the end of currencies around the world will come some day… But until then, there’s no worry from me on investing in them… Besides, the ending will be very pronounced, and you’ll have plenty of time to react…  
• Well, we as a country entered another conflict on Friday, sending in missiles and bombs to Venequela, and capturing the leader of the country. It was quick and dirty, and I’m not going to say either way how I feel about this, but the one thing that I think that most people have missed with all the drugs talk veiling the truth, as I see it, it was a move to eliminate Oil shipments to Russia and China…   That’s how I see it, and you can argue with me if you think I’m incorrect, but you won’t change my mind… 
• I’m having connectivity problems down here this morning. My iPad and phone connect, but my laptop and TV won’t connect… so that means I’m having to attempt to get this out via my iPad but it’s not the same so if I had hair I would be pulling it out right now! So, I’m cutting this short today, hope you don’t mind…
• Well, we’re finally getting back to the normal period of time for printing data releases… This will be the first normal week, and it’s full of data prints, but the most important of them all will come when the Jobs Jamboree returns on Friday this week… The Fed Heads claim their rate cuts are to help with the slump in labor markets, but C’mon we all know better than that! So, get ready for a week of data prints, just not any today! 
• To recap… well, the year ended with the SPTs holding the con on the metals, and making certain that they didn’t show a year-end gain… Gold closed the 2025 year at $4,317, and Silver at $71.54. The dollar bugs had to do the same with the dollar and the BBDXY ended the year at 1,203… Down 8.3% for the year, the worst year for the dollar since 2011…  Friday’s trading was hit and miss on thiings, as the senior traders were still on holiday… Gold ended the week at        and Silver at         
• For What It’s Worth…  I read this piece from Matthew Piepenburg of Van Greyerz Gold over the weekend and once again I was blown away by Matthew’s words, of which I have cut out a piece for the FWIW… In it he talks of the pending gloom and doom for the U.S. and this piece really lights a fire and it can be found here: Gold’s Bigger Picture in a Narrowing 2026
• Or, here’s your snippet: “This brings us to the Fed in 2026. Will or can it tow the White House’s line to further rate cutting and more QE? The likely answer is yes, and not because of politics, but because of basic survival.
• The Fed’s Real Mandate & Problem
• The Fed’s real mandate is bond market stability, not inflation, which is an open lie, and not employment, which is equally so. Given that the post-2022, weaponized USD is openly unloved and untrusted, someone has to buy Uncle Sam’s debt, and that won’t be China or Japan.
• Japan has been dumping USTs to support its own broken credit markets and Yen, and China, well… it has been walking away from USTs (in favor of gold) in a staggering manner. Its FX reserves were once 40% USTs; by 2025, that figure had fallen to less than 1%:
• Given the fact that less UST demand means lower bond prices and hence rising bond yields, Uncle Sam is in deep trouble heading into 2026.
• Rising bond yields are an absolute terror to bankrupt debtors like the US, because it means the interest expense on its debt, already over $1T/year, gets even harder to repay.
• The Bond Market’s Real Power
• For this reason, DC needs to keep yields and rates down. The Fed has thus been pushing rates down in 2025, but as we also saw in 2001, yields still climbed despite the Fed’s rate cuts, a terrifying confirmation that the Fed’s tools are breaking down as the bond market, rather than Powell, takes the wheel.
• In 2025, 70% of Uncle Sam’s IOUs were short-duration bonds, which need to be paid back soon. This will be entirely unsustainable going into 2026 unless Powell breaks out bazooka money printing and becomes a perma-buyer of our own debt with mouse-clicked dollars.
• This should be a tailwind for precious metals.”
• Chuck again…  Another thought that I had about The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is that they’ve painted themselves into a corner, and that the only way to survive is to print the heck out of money and buy bonds that keep the U.S. economy afloat…  
• Market Prices 1/5/2026: American Style: A$ .6681, kiwi.5758, C$ .7256, euro 1.1679, sterling 1.3461, Swiss $1.2526, European Style: Rand 16.4217, krone 10.0923, SEK 9.2336, forint 328.78, zloty 3.2878, koruna 20.7112, RUB 80.86, yen 156.65, sing 1.2866, HKD 7.7867, INR 90.25, China 6.9849, peso 17.97, BRL 5.4419, BBDXY 1,207, Oil $57.78, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $75.27, Platinum $2,207.00, Palladium $1,675.00, Copper $5.88, and Gold….. $4,409
• That’s it for today… Well, on New Year’s Day…  the College Football Playoffs were a dud, except for the last game of the day… My bracket is toast, so I won’t be going back and looking at it any longer!  Was Texas Tech really that bad? And was Ole Miss really that good? Questions…  My travel time down here couldn’t have gone any better, we moved along just fine , no problems! In Nashville, where we changed planes, the wheelchair guy was waiting for me and addressed me by my name… pretty impressive!
• Well, the wolf moon is a Super Moon and was out over the ocean last night and looked awesome!  Bob Marley and the Whalers take us to the finish line this morning with their song: 3 Little Birds… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
• Chuck Butler

Good day… and a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy New Year, although I think those words will not ring true in 2026, but then that’s just me…  I’m in my winter home now for the next 3-4 months… I only book a one-way ticket to come here, and decide when to go home much later…  Buddy Miles greets me this morning with his song: Down By The River…

Well, the year, 2025 ended with a whimper… Everyone who was still on a trading desk at 3pm est on Wednesday, was making certain that Gold didn’t show a gain, Silver didn’t show a gain, Copper didn’t show a gain, and etc.  With the dollar bugs, the only ones to get the asset higher in price, to end the year.  Bonds ended the year with the 10-year’s yield gaining…  And the price of Oil getting dumped on to end the year.  The year end prices were: Gold $4,317, Silver $71.54, Copper $5.64, BBDXY 1,203, Oil $57.42, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.16%

Friday saw a hit and miss data in trading as most senior traders were still celebrating their holiday. As with the start of every year, that I recall that is, the dollar was bought on the first day of the year, and the BBDXY ended Friday at 1,204… Its seems to me that each year the dollar bugs are all out talking about how the dollar is going to be strong the coming year, and by the end of January they are nowhere to be seen or heard. I guess we’ll see what’s in store for us regarding the dollar, my guess? I tend to think that the dollar is in for a world of hurt this year… How’s that diversification out of some dollars going for you?

I used to ask a question to the audiences that I talked to this: You don’t hold just one stock in your account, do you? You don’t wear just one set of clothes, do you? Then who among you only holds one currency? My claim to fame was diversification, no matter when the dollar was strong or weak… You need to diversify to make sure that if the dollar gets beaten to hell with hand sledge, that you don’t suffer the losses in purchasing power…  There! I’ve said enough on that!

Oh, and where to diversify?  www.battlebank.com

I know, I know, the end of currencies around the world will come some day… But until then, there’s no worry from me on investing in them… Besides, the ending will be very pronounced, and you’ll have plenty of time to react…  

Well, we as a country entered another conflict on Friday, sending in missiles and bombs to Venequela, and capturing the leader of the country. It was quick and dirty, and I’m not going to say either way how I feel about this, but the one thing that I think that most people have missed with all the drugs talk veiling the truth, as I see it, it was a move to eliminate Oil shipments to Russia and China…   That’s how I see it, and you can argue with me if you think I’m incorrect, but you won’t change my mind… 

I’m having connectivity problems down here this morning. My iPad and phone connect, but my laptop and TV won’t connect… so that means I’m having to attempt to get this out via my iPad but it’s not the same so if I had hair I would be pulling it out right now! So, I’m cutting this short today, hope you don’t mind…

Well, we’re finally getting back to the normal period of time for printing data releases… This will be the first normal week, and it’s full of data prints, but the most important of them all will come when the Jobs Jamboree returns on Friday this week… The Fed Heads claim their rate cuts are to help with the slump in labor markets, but C’mon we all know better than that! So, get ready for a week of data prints, just not any today! 

To recap… well, the year ended with the SPTs holding the con on the metals, and making certain that they didn’t show a year-end gain… Gold closed the 2025 year at $4,317, and Silver at $71.54. The dollar bugs had to do the same with the dollar and the BBDXY ended the year at 1,203… Down 8.3% for the year, the worst year for the dollar since 2011…  Friday’s trading was hit and miss on thiings, as the senior traders were still on holiday… Gold ended the week at        and Silver at         

For What It’s Worth…  I read this piece from Matthew Piepenburg of Van Greyerz Gold over the weekend and once again I was blown away by Matthew’s words, of which I have cut out a piece for the FWIW… In it he talks of the pending gloom and doom for the U.S. and this piece really lights a fire and it can be found here: Gold’s Bigger Picture in a Narrowing 2026

Or, here’s your snippet: “This brings us to the Fed in 2026. Will or can it tow the White House’s line to further rate cutting and more QE? The likely answer is yes, and not because of politics, but because of basic survival.

The Fed’s Real Mandate & Problem

The Fed’s real mandate is bond market stability, not inflation, which is an open lie, and not employment, which is equally so. Given that the post-2022, weaponized USD is openly unloved and untrusted, someone has to buy Uncle Sam’s debt, and that won’t be China or Japan.

Japan has been dumping USTs to support its own broken credit markets and Yen, and China, well… it has been walking away from USTs (in favor of gold) in a staggering manner. Its FX reserves were once 40% USTs; by 2025, that figure had fallen to less than 1%:

Given the fact that less UST demand means lower bond prices and hence rising bond yields, Uncle Sam is in deep trouble heading into 2026.

Rising bond yields are an absolute terror to bankrupt debtors like the US, because it means the interest expense on its debt, already over $1T/year, gets even harder to repay.

The Bond Market’s Real Power

For this reason, DC needs to keep yields and rates down. The Fed has thus been pushing rates down in 2025, but as we also saw in 2001, yields still climbed despite the Fed’s rate cuts, a terrifying confirmation that the Fed’s tools are breaking down as the bond market, rather than Powell, takes the wheel.

In 2025, 70% of Uncle Sam’s IOUs were short-duration bonds, which need to be paid back soon. This will be entirely unsustainable going into 2026 unless Powell breaks out bazooka money printing and becomes a perma-buyer of our own debt with mouse-clicked dollars.

This should be a tailwind for precious metals.”

Chuck again…  Another thought that I had about The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is that they’ve painted themselves into a corner, and that the only way to survive is to print the heck out of money and buy bonds that keep the U.S. economy afloat…  

Market Prices 1/5/2026: American Style: A$ .6681, kiwi.5758, C$ .7256, euro 1.1679, sterling 1.3461, Swiss $1.2526, European Style: Rand 16.4217, krone 10.0923, SEK 9.2336, forint 328.78, zloty 3.2878, koruna 20.7112, RUB 80.86, yen 156.65, sing 1.2866, HKD 7.7867, INR 90.25, China 6.9849, peso 17.97, BRL 5.4419, BBDXY 1,207, Oil $57.78, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $75.27, Platinum $2,207.00, Palladium $1,675.00, Copper $5.88, and Gold….. $4,409

That’s it for today… Well, on New Year’s Day…  the College Football Playoffs were a dud, except for the last game of the day… My bracket is toast, so I won’t be going back and looking at it any longer!  Was Texas Tech really that bad? And was Ole Miss really that good? Questions…  My travel time down here couldn’t have gone any better, we moved along just fine , no problems! In Nashville, where we changed planes, the wheelchair guy was waiting for me and addressed me by my name… pretty impressive!

Well, the wolf moon is a Super Moon and was out over the ocean last night and looked awesome!  Bob Marley and the Whalers take us to the finish line this morning with their song: 3 Little Birds… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

*Silver rallies on Tuesday, while Gold sees STPs

• China is changing the rules…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, it’s the last day of 2025…  Good riddance as far as our local sports teams, and as far as my frequent visits to the Emergency Room at the Hospital… I’ve gotten to know the folks at the Jupiter Medical Center Emergency Room quite well! The folks at the St. Claire in Fenton Hospital are always changing, so they don’t recognize me when I arrive, which could be a good thing or a bad thing…  The Searchers greet me this morning with one of my all-time favorite songs: Love Potion No. 9… 

Well, one day a humongous upward move, the next day a bigger downward move, and that was followed by a nice move in Silver, and one in Gold that was cut short by the SPTs, I’ll explain… Gold was up over $35 yesterday until it wasn’t… The SPTs came in and shorted the heck out of Gold, thus making Gold’s rally a measly $2…  Silver on the other hand saw that the SPTs were a non-event, and it gained $4.06 on the day to close at $76.28… Gold closed at $4,335…

I have something very important for you to read if you are a Silver holder or a Silver holding Wannabe in the FWIW section today… No peeking! Almost caught you skipping ahead, didn’t I?  Oh well, I doubt it will hurt if you do…  

The dollar was up in the early trading but ended the day flat as a pancake (Head East), with the BBDXY at 1,201…  That’s a 8.5% loss for the dollar ytd…  that is if it doesn’t lose more in the last day of trading in 2025… Really though, I don’t expect much to happen today, as most trading desks will close up shop early to get home and get ready for a night on the town… Be Careful out there…

My wife’s father used to call New Year’s Eve “Amateur Hour”…  And I used to tell my kids that for every minute past midnight the clock ticks the more hazardous the roads become…   So… Be Careful!

The price of Oil slipped a bit (actually only 19-cents) , but that brought it back to a $57 handle on Tuesday…  The 10-year Treasury is beginning to make me sound like a broken record as it closed the day with a 4.12% yield… B-O-R-I-N-G!  

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, it appears that to end the year the metals will have a game off day… Silver is down over $4 and Gold is down $28, this is getting to leave me with a rash… game on, game off… But Gold & Silver have put I yeoman work this year no matter what the SPTs do to them today… 

The dollar is floundering around 1,202 as many currency traders won’t be showing up to their desks today… I know when I was on the trading desk, I came in late and left early on 12/31… And I imagine that many of my former cohearts will do the same today…  The dollar is down over 8% this year, and I would think that it will down at a larger percentage next year… But that sounds too much like a forecast for 2026, and I shy away from those… 

The Chinese renminbi was allowed to gain some more ground VS the dollar overnight, and trades this morning at 6.9871…  When I began offering renminbi to investors at the old EverBank World Markets trading desk, the renminbi was around 5.00, so it has a long way to go to get back to that price, I would say…  And knowing the Chinese pefreences I would suspect that to get back to a 5 handle will take a very loooooonnnngggg time! 

The price of Oil remained trading overnight with a $58 handle and the 10-year’s yield is at 4.11% yield… downa BP or two this week to end the year… I suspect that the Fed Heads have been manipulating the yield to end the year…  I know, I know, they aren’t bond buyers any longer, yeah right, and my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! 

On 1440 the new service that I rely on each day for they tell you what’s happening without bias, which is so difficult to find with other cable news services… Well, on 1440, they highlighted the forecasters thoughts for 2026… They were all in agreement that AI will be the story of 2026… 

I have to say that even my son, who’s a High School Teacher, says that AI makes his life much easier, but has to be on the lookout for cheaters in class…  But I reminded him of something I wrote about a couple of months ago, and that was that you have to be careful with the answers you receive from AI because they were entered by someone, and who knows if that “someone” was that smart?  I’m just saying…

It could end up much like Wikipedia… Not as used as much now VS when it was first introduced….  But, I believe in the end, it will be used extensively, so get ready for it!

One of the forecasts comes from my former publishers and friends, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden aka the Aden Sisters who had this to say: “For now, the metals will remain very strong by staying above $4,100 for gold, $57 for silver, 650 for the HUI, $1800 for platinum and $1550 for palladium.  During strong bull markets, the downward corrections generally tend to be moderate.  That will be strongly reinforced if the metals hold above these levels on any further weakness. “

You can find the Aden Forecast and sign up at www.adenforecast.com

For 2026, the forecasters thought that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be one of the few Central Banks to hike rates in 2026… The BOJ has been disappointing the markets for decades, why would anything be different in 2026?

It was reported in the WP yesterday that 2025 was NOT a good year for at least 717 companies that filed bankruptcy… This was according to data from S&P Global Markets Intelligence…  That’s 14% more bankruptcies filed in 2025 than in 2024, and the highest tally since 2010…   Did tariffs have anything to do with these bankruptcies?

I’m finished with 2025… I’m not going to write any more on the markets, as they are all manipulated and massaged to make everyone think that all’s ok on the Western front!   Except for those 717 companies that filed bankruptcy in 2025…  So, I’ll just head to the Big Finish and say goodbye to 2025 may you soon be forgotten! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday did indeed show home prices rose in Rocktober as I thought they would and said so in the Pfennig yesterday… A 1.2% rise and with the Fed Heads willing to cut rates further in 2026, homes should continue to rise in price..

To recap… it was game on for the metals yesterday, after experiencing game off on Monday. Silver gained over $4, and Gold gained just $2 after the SPTs took away over $35 of its earlier gain. The forecasters are out in full force and 1440 along with Yahoo Finance,  wrote them down and printed them on their sites.  And even the Adens chimed in with a forecast for Gold & Silver… 

Oh, and one more thing for Silver traders to think about… from Bloomberg.com “Oh, and China announced that they were raising the margin on metals again, for the second time in a week! Bloomberg.com reported this and said, “Precious metals have been rocked this week in a tumultuous end to a historic year. Silver has been especially volatile, with futures soaring to a record above $82 an ounce early on Monday, followed by a sharp retracement.” this new rate of margin goes into effect after the close of business today… 

For What It’s Worth… I had a dear reader send me this link yesterday, and it’s very important to read to make sure you do, and it can be found here: Opinion: China launches its silver weapon on Jan. 1. Here’s what that means for prices. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “On Jan. 1, China’s new export-licensing regime takes effect, putting government gatekeepers between 121 million ounces of annual silver exports and the rest of the world. That means 60%-70% of the globally traded refined supply will require Beijing’s permission to leave the country.

Wall Street spent Monday hyperventilating about margin hikes on silver traders. CNBC trotted out the usual suspects warning about “speculative excess.” The X platform was full of people who couldn’t spell backwardation six months ago suddenly explaining why silver is overvalued.

The playbook you’ve seen before

China doesn’t invent new tricks. It just runs the old ones on new commodities.

If this feels familiar, it should. China doesn’t invent new tricks. It just runs the old ones on new commodities.

In 2010, Beijing started “licensing” rare-earth exports. Not banning them, mind you. Just requiring paperwork. Approvals. Quotas that somehow never quite met demand. The effect was surgical; as prices spiked up to 4,500%, Western manufacturers discovered they couldn’t build smartphones or missiles without Chinese permission — and a generation of supply-chain executives learned Mandarin the hard way.

The rare-earth squeeze wasn’t dramatic. It was bureaucratic. Death by a thousand forms filed in triplicate.

Silver will see the same treatment starting Jan. 1. Chinese refiners will need government approval to export. The qualification thresholds are 80 tons of annual production capacity and $30 million in credit lines. That’s not a regulatory standard. That’s a velvet rope designed to keep most current exporters on the wrong side.

China just nationalized the silver trade without nationalizing a single mine.”

Chuck again… this is HUGE folks! I told you yesterday that the Shanghai Metals Exchange didn’t allow fools and knaves like the SPTs, and now they’ve weaponized their Silver…    This changes everything I said yesterday, about the COMEX and their allowing short trades in the millions of ounces…  Are you ready? Strap yourself in, and keep those arms and legs inside at all times….  And I asked Ed Steer what he thought and he replied: “It’s another weapon in the arsenal that China/BRICS+ can use against the west…like they’re currently doing with rare earths.”

Market Prices 12/30/2025: American Style: A$.6687, kiwi .5740, C$ .7295, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3458, Swiss $1.2619, European Style: rand 16.5995, krone 10.0590, SEK 9.1912,  forint 327.44, zloty 3.5907, koruna 20.5965, RUB 81.42, yen 156.61, sing 1.2854, HKD 7.7842, INR 89.87, China 6.9871, peso 17.95, BRL 5.4753, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.27, Oil $58.25, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $71.68, Platinum $2,015.00, Platinum $1607.00, Copper $ 5.62, and Gold… $4,311

That’s it for today and this year…  here’s something that I think I’ll make a tradition in the Pfennig: 

Should old acquaintance be forgot

And never brought to mind?

Should old acquaintance be forgot

In the days of auld lang syne?

For auld lang syne, my dear

For auld lang syne

We’ll drink a cup of kindness yet

For the sake of auld lang syne

And surely, you will buy your cup

And surely, I’ll buy mine!

We’ll take a cup of kindness yet

For the sake of auld lang syne 

Have you ever heard Lisa Kelly from Celtic Women sing it? Here’s a lync: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fAG2yv-o5A

Chuck again….  ( you can’t get rid of me that easily!)  I also hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and a celebratory New Year’s Eve tonight…  I also hope that everyone gets home safely…   I have one final thought for you this morning: “May dreams arise with the first sunrise of the year” The GREAT Percy Sledge takes us to the finish line today with his song: When A Man Loves A Woman… Please remember To Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The metals get taken down, like at no other time!
• Taking away our paper checks?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you… Well, to prove that all good plans of mice and men may often go awry… I made a major faux pas with buying a gift for my wife.. What a dolt I am! Hopefully all will be worked out today… My infusion 10 days ago, finally caught up with me yesterday and my stomach problems returned… UGH!  I got some medicine for it last night, so hopefully, that takes care of it! We are hosting a New Year’s Eve Party this year, our friends will be here, and I have a special surprise for them at Midnight…  Simple Minds greet me this morning with their 80’s song: Don’t You (Forget about me) 

Well.. All the euphoria in the metals was taken away yesterday, much like the chaperone that takes away the spiked punch bowl… I wish it were that silly… The profit taking and the short sellers combined to send Gold & Silver back to where they were last week… Silver was down $7 and Gold was down $200… Yes, that’s right Gold was down $200 yesterday…  It was the opposite of the gains the metals made last Friday…  So, we start over again at getting the metals moving in the right direction… 

The dollar was bought a bit yesterday, as the BBDXY gained 1 index point on Monday.  All the Armageddon that surrounded the markets on Friday, was knocked for a loop yesterday… It will be interesting to see how the metals react today… 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $57 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw another BP taken from its price yesterday. The 10-year closed the day at 4.11% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…  Well, Gold & Silver has fought back… Silver is up $3 to start the day, and Gold is up $38… There was more buying in the dollar, and the BBDXY picked up another index point to start the day at 1,202…  I’m more confused about what’s going on in Silver than I was yesterday… But then what else is new?  

The price of Oil bumped higher again to trade this morning with a $58 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury is floundering around 4.13% this morning… back and forth, C’mon bond boys, pick a lane and stay there! 

I received an email from a reader yesterday that explained the run up in the price of Silver that doesn’t have anything to do with the physical Silver shortage, or the crazy wild demand for physical Siver… It has to do with futures contracts that are traded like they are at a casino… It’s a very long explanation, so I won’t get into it here, but  i will say that it involves the COMEX’s change in Silver futures expirations from once a month to 3 per week… This scares the bejeebers out of me…  What happens when the casino players decide to walk away from Silver and play a new game?  I’ll tell you what…  long ago in a galaxy far away, I was the “go-to” guy when the media wanted to know what’s going on in the currencies and metals… 

And I received a phone call from a writer for a major magazine, and she wanted to know about what was going on in Silver, as it had rallied big time and was approaching $50…  I told her that Silver was the working man’s Gold, as it was far cheaper to buy than Gold…  And that I thought Silver would get to $59 and then who knows how high it would go?   

And right after the magazine came out, the casino players walked away from Silver, and soon it dropped to $30, then $20… Where it remained for quite a few years…  So, it has happened before, and it will happen again, just when, is anyone’s guess… Maybe after Silver reaches $100 or before that, I just don’t know.  I never heard from that magazine writer again… I wonder if she lost her job, or just decided to treat me a persona non-gratis… 

OK, let’s move on, talking about all of this depresses me… UGH!  The Chinese renminbi, as I told you yesterday, had briefly slipped below the 7 figure but had closed back above it, did go below the 7 figure overnight and this time it stayed there. Remember the renminbi is a European Style currency, which means the lower the price VS the dollar is a good thing because it takes less of the currency to buy a dollar…  So, falling below the 7 figure is good for renminbi holders, who have had to endure years of a weaker currency to the dollar.  

Of course, a lot of the cause of the weakness has been the Chinese’s preference of a weaker currency to aid their exports… This is what the POTUS is always carping about, how we need a weaker dollar…  of course a weak currency invites inflation into your counrty, so there’s that to think about…  Which is why inflation was held back here in the U.S. as the dollar was stronger, but now the weak dollar trend has been triggered, and who knows what will be the outcome for inflation, here in the U.S. given the economy has to deal with 1. Expanded money supply, 2. Lower interest rates, and now 3. A weaker dollar…

And then finally today, regarding Silver… Ed Steer highlighted this comment in his letter this morning and I thought after all the doom and gloom I talked about in Silver above, that this would be good to finish with…  “It is the most blatant act of financial warfare we have witnessed in quite some time. As you read this, the price of silver in New York is being smashed to ~$72, a manufactured, low-volume paper crash designed to steal your position. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the physical market in Shanghai is screaming, with silver trading at a staggering $83. This is not a spread; it is a divorce.

The paper market of the West and the physical market of the East have been torn apart, and the ~$11 gap between them is the fuse that is about to ignite the most violent price explosion in modern history.

What we are witnessing is a trap, a final, desperate shakeout by the Western banking cartel to steal our silver just days before the world changes forever. Do not fall for it!”

Chuck again… yes, it’s a quite something to see Silver priced in the U.S. and in China being so different, but… I told you years ago, when the Shanghai Metals Exchange was first announced, that this would, in time, lead to the SPTs to become small players, that in China they would not allow the kind of manipulations that the COMEX and U.S. allow…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index for Rocktober this morning… With the rate cuts already started in that time frame, I would expect that home prices to rise and end the trend of monthly drops in the data… I guess, we’ll see, eh?

And I guess this falls under data… In line with taking away the penny… the Fed Heads announced that they were looking into ending paper checks… what will they think to end next?

To recap… The “fix was in” on the metals yesterday… It was an engineered shorting like we’ve never seen before and it tood Silver down $7 and Gold down $200… We’re back to last week’s figures for these two… Chuck explains what happened, sort of, and how this has happened previously, back when Chuck was the “go-to” for currencies and metals for the media… Hey! We all get old, and become “has beens”…. I’m just saying…  There’s a difference between the price of Silver in China and the in the U.S., and I’m not talking a couple of buck difference either!

For What It’s Worth…  I pulled this from the World Gold Council’s web site because these guys don’t usually get it right when they talk about Gold, but this time they did! The article is about how Central Banks are still buying physical Gold at a break neck pace and it can be found here: Central Bank Gold Statistics: Central banks ramp up gold buying in October | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council

Or, here’s your snippet: “Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totalling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year. Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.

Y-t-d reported net purchases through October totalled 254t, a slower pace when compared with the previous three years (Chart 2). This possibly reflects the impact of higher prices. Even so, sustained activity from emerging-market central banks – supported by the findings from our annual survey – strongly suggests that these purchases are strategic rather than opportunistic, reinforcing gold’s importance amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.

The buyer cohort in October was dominated by names we’ve seen throughout the year, with a handful of central banks accounting for the bulk of additions:

The National Bank of Poland re-entered the market in October, having paused its buying since May. After recently increasing its target gold allocation to 30%,1 the purchase of 16t in the month lifted its gold reserves to 531t, 26% of total reserves at end-October prices.

The Central Bank of Brazil bought gold for the second consecutive month, adding 16t in October following its 15t purchase in September. Its gold reserves now stand at 161t, accounting for 6% of total reserves.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (9t), Bank Indonesia (4t), Central Bank of Turkey (3t), Czech National Bank (2t), National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2t), Bank of Ghana (>1t), People’s Bank of China (>1t), National Bank of Kazakhstan (>1t) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (>1t) were also buyers in October.

At the time of writing, the Central Bank of Russia was the only bank to report a decline in gold reserves in the month – falling by 3t to 2,327t.

Year-to-date, the National Bank of Poland (83t) continues to be largest official-sector gold buyer, with double the purchases of the next largest buyer, Kazakhstan (41t) (Chart 3). While buying continues to be concentrated among emerging-market central banks, the list of buyers – old and new – remains broad.”

Chuck again… this is important stuff folks… follow the money, and the money leads to Central Banks buying physical Gold… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 12/30/2025: American Style: A$ .6697, kiwi .5799, C$ .7300, euro 1.1758, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2650, European Style: rand 16.6227, krone 10.0558, SEK 9.1956, forint 328.13, zloty 3.5925, koruna 20.6135, RUB 79.34, yen 156.27, sing 1.2844, HKD 7.7829, INR 89.78, China 6.9958, peso 17.95, BRL 5.4969, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.13, Oil $58.46, 10-year 4.14%, Silver $75.45, Platinum $2,214.00, Palladium $1,687.00, Copper $5.72, and Gold… $4,371… 

That’s it for today, Sorry about how tardy the letter is today… The alarm went off and I ignored it… I slept most of yesterday, don’t know why, but then had difficulty going to sleep last night, and then when I did finally nod off, I didn’t want to wake up!  Something is awry here… I guess I’ll find out what it is eventually… Our Blues jumped out to a lead last night, but ended up losing, yet again on home ice… UGH!  Home ice used to mean something in ice hockey… Oh well, having cash in your pocket used to mean something too…  The temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: I Wish It Would Rain…  a great song by the way…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Silver has a day for the ages!
• Economic data is not good…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope everyone had a very Blessed Christmas, and if you don’t celebrate the Good Lord’s birth, then I hope you had a wonderful weekend.  How was your Christmas?  Mine was grand as all the kids were here along with the grandkids… Family is what matters to me, and I enjoy having my family around me all the time… The Marshall Tucker Band greets me this morning with their great song: Heard It In A Love Song

Well, I was all prepared had it cued up and all to send you a Pfennig last Tuesday that alerted you to how the Big Bullion Banks and The COMEX were in cahoots to cheat Silver holder and buyers to be… I had seen a YOUTUBE explaining it all, but then I got to thinking..  No one else was writing about this cheating, and so I didn’t send it out, and later found out that it probably wasn’t true… at this time… 

But the COMEX did raise the margin on futures contracts in both Gold & Silver last week, just not when I thought they had.  Gold to $22 and Silver to $27…  I’ll let Ed Steer explain how this all plays out math-wise:  here’s Ed “So if you’re short on one COMEX contract, your margin call requirements that month worked out to $135,000 per contract…$27×5,000 troy ounces. That doesn’t include the approximately 70 cent roll-over/switch charge per ounce from December into March that the CME imposes…so tack on a further $3,500 on top of that per contract. We’re talking about serious money here…especially if you’re a smaller trader. The Big 8 commercial traders are short 59,180 contracts/295.900 million troy ounces — and I’ll let you do the math on that. It’s a frightening number.

The icing on the cake for all the shorts…small, medium and large…was the margin call they got on that $7+ rally in silver yesterday.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Yes, so the Silver $7 rally on Friday to end the week at $79.39 was so full of short covering by the SPTs and then sprinkle in some new long buys and you have a rally for the ages!  Remember when I told you after Silver traded above $70 the first time? I said, “That Silver will reach $80 much faster than it took it to reach $70 from $60” And lookie here.. I couldn’t believe my eye when I first looked at the metals screen and saw the $7 rally in Silver.. I mentioned before I went on vacation, that the SPTs are caught in a trap, on one side they have these HUMONGOUS margin calls for their shorts, but if they go to close the shorts out, that means they have to buy Silver and that will cause an even larger rally in Silver…  And that’s exactly what we saw last week… 

Gold also rallied on Friday and ended the week at $4,533… One month ago, Silver was $52… So, a $27 rally in a month…  Pretty crazy, eh?  Well, onto $100 I guess.. 

The dollar spent last week getting sold, and ended the week with the BBDXY at 1,200…  Gold at $4,533, Silver at $79.27, Oil at $56, and the 10-year at 4.13% yield. It was not a “Santa Rally” for the dollar… 

In the overnight markets last night…  What the heck went on here? Silver is down $4 to start the day/ week this morning, and Gold is down $70!  Just when you think the SPTs have had their day, and have gone away, they come back with a vengeance…  And the dollar saw some buying overnight, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points this morning… Last night before I retired, the BBDXY had fallen to 1198… But I guess the PPT came in and intervened to get the dollar from falling further. 

Goldman Sachs, aka Lola says that “Gold is our favorite long commodity”…  And Kitco.com reports this morning that 57% of people polled are of the belief that Silver will get to $100 this next year.  So, I wanted to include those things to even out the selling going on in Gold & Silver…

The price of Oil bumped higher to a $57 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw some buying and the yield starts the day today at 4.12%..

So, when I was on the trading desk at EverBank World Markets, and I would go on vacation, the remaining crew on the desk would claim, “When Chuck’s away, the currencies and metals rally”… And they would be really screaming it now, because while I was away, the dollar sunk, Gold & Silver rallied as if they were going out of business, and all was right in the world of markets again… 

The dollar has really sunk, especially after the 3^rd QTR GDP showed that, once again, if your Gov’t spends enough, they can pump up the GDP…. 3^rd QTR GDP printed at 4.35%… So, now, all the town criers that were calling for another rate cut at the next meeting, have slunk back into the caves, like Snuff The Magic Dragon, and all bets are off now… Now to me, that GDP print was utterly ridiculous!  Factory Orders are down, Industrial Production is down, Capacity Utilization hasn’t moved,  but… Money Supply is soaring…  GDP has officially become a piece of data that I don’t care about any longer, because of its falseness… 

The Chinese renminbi was traded below he 7 handle for a brief time on Friday,  It hasn’t been this strong VS the dollar since Sept 2024… So, the main competition for exports for the U.S. is allowing their currency to strengthen… I guess they aren’t worried about how expensive their currency is for their exports… 

The BBDXY when I left you on 12/17 was 1,208…  This morning the BBDXY is 1202 …  The dollar had already begun its drop before I went on vacation… The BBDXY had reached as high as 1,213, and on 12/15 I even headlined a Pfennig with ” The Dollar Returns To Its Underlying Weak Trend”…   So, this wasn’t just a “Chuck’s away” rally for the currencies, but it was a bit of:  “Chuck’s away” so let’s play some more for the currencies… 

The price of Oil has fallen to a $56 handle… I have changed my outlook for the price of Oil… With weaker demand, and all the tanker shipping problems, I see the price of Oil falling below $50 in the new year…   The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 4.13%… You would think that if the thoughts of an additional rate cut next month were put on the back burner, that the yield would go higher….  But the Fed Heads were there to prevent that from happening, I suspect… 

As in past years, the last week of the year all the forecasters come out of the woodwork and opine about how they see the new year going… I won’t be joining them because my viewpoint is a long-term view..  But I will add that I really think that the rallies in Silver and Gold for 2025 are really impressive… Gold is up 70% this year, and Silver is up 140%!!  But book those gains, and put them away… I feel that while Gold & Silver will continue to rally in 2026, that their gains in 2025 will be their best efforts.. I hope I’m incorrect in that thought, that Gold & Silver better 2025 gains in 2026… You won’t be mad at me if I’m incorrect here, will you? I didn’t think so…  But basically, when you calculate the percentage gain from $2,000 to $4,500 it’s astronomical, but… when you calculate the gain from $4,500 to $7000 since you’re dealing with larger numbers the percentage gain isn’t as lofty…  That’s all I’m saying here… The percentage gains will not be as lofty as they were in 2025… 

Jim Rickards said that since Gold is on a bull run that it could very well be at 10,000 by the end of the new year…  But before you celebrate, think about that for a minute, if Gold is $10,000 that means something is terribly wrong or already has gone wrong in the U.S. and its economy…  I’m just saying…

I’ve said for some time now that I thought the U.S. Financial System would collapse and I still feel that way… When? Only the Shadow Knows… 

The euro is stuck in the mud right now… you would’ve thought that the euro would benefit from a weaker dollar, and it has but not as strongly as I would have thought. The rest of the currencies are looking a little healthier this morning, with the Russian ruble standing out as the best performing currency vs the dollar… See what the talk of a peace agreement can do? So, how’s that diversification going? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had two reports (Oct & Nov) for each data print, with Rocktober’s prints being much worse than the Nov print…  You see, they can’t go back and make adjustments once the data has printed, so they just said, oh well, we’ll make up for it with the Nov. Prints…   

This week the Data Cupboard is basiclly empty, it will have a sprinkling of non-market moving prints but that’s it…  So, the dollar is on its own this week, and so far it doesn’t look like it will be good week for the dollar… 

To recap… Silver rallied by $7 or 10% on Friday, and in China it traded over $80… But here in the U.S. where the SPTs still have some say, Silver stayed below $80 into the weekend… Gold also rallied and ended the week above $4,500.. The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Chuck has changed his outlook for the price of Oil… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this article comes to us from the Good Folks at GATA, and it’s about the real story driving the prices of Gold & Silver higher and it can be found on the GATA site, but unless you’re a subscriber you won’t be able to see the entire article, but… I have the most of it…

Here’s your snippet: “To hear mainstream financial news organizations and analysts tell it, gold and silver have been flying because of:

— The decline of the U.S. dollar.

— International disorder sparked by the war between Russia and Ukraine, or the West’s war against Russia through its Ukrainian proxy.

— The seizure by the U.S. government and Western European governments of Russian foreign exchange assets.

— Heavy buying of gold by central banks seeking some independence from the dollar and U.S. foreign policy.

— The unstoppable increase in U.S. government and Western European government debt.

— Strong industrial demand for silver.

Of course there is something to all those things. But the mainstream carefully overlooks what is likely the biggest cause of the stunning revival of the monetary metals: the long-overdue calling of the short derivatives positions in both metals that has been operated for decades by the U.S. government, its closest allies, and their bullion bank agents.

Delivery of real metal now is being demanded against paper claims on metal, claims that were issued by bullion banks that never had to deliver it, thereby allowing gold and silver supplies to be oversubscribed by as much as 90 or 100 to 1.

Only a short squeeze can plausibly explain the violent price action in silver today, when the metal rose in price by as much as $7 or 10%. One-day action like that in the metals has not been seen for decades.

The squeeze is evident in the huge discrepancy between prices in Shanghai, India, London, and New York. Prices in Shanghai and India are far higher, creating an arbitrage opportunity that has been draining metal out of the West, metal that in many cases has multiple owners and isn’t readily available.

Examining this angle — the creation of vast imaginary supplies of the monetary metals in order to protect the dollar as the world reserve currency, maintain faith in U.S. government debt, and impoverish the rest of the world — might explode what’s left of the world’s political order, an unjust, imperialistic order that should be exploded.

Examining this angle also might fatally discredit the mainstream news organizations and analysts who aren’t capable of honesty in a matter so important.”

Chuck again…  I would really like to see the look on the faces of those that told me not to write about short selling to manipulate Gold & Silver years ago…  All those yerars ago… I was about ready to walk out the door because they wouldn’t let me say what I wanted to say… But realizing that I had the best job I could have, and I needed to support my family, so.. I tucked my tail between my legs, and went back to my desk…  I still alluded to the short selling, but never really came out and called the manipulation for what it was…. 

Market Prices 12/29/25: American Style: A$.6685, kiwi .5792, C$ .7300, euro 1.1760, sterling 1.3477, Swiss $1.2645, European Style: rand 16.6377, krone 10.0546, SEK 9.1909, forint 329.62, zloty 3.5954, koruna 20.6447, RUB 77.67, yen 156.36, sing 1.2859, HKD 7.7740, INR 88.98, China 7.0068, peso 17.91, BRL 5.6664, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.14, Oil $57.96, 10-year 4.12%, Silver $75.05, Platinum $2,323.00, Palladium $1,740.00, Copper $5.60, and Gold… $4,464

That’s it for today….  Just today, tomorrow and Wednesday for writing this week, and then we say goodbye to 2025…  And the next time I write to you, after Wednesday, I will be in my winter home, and it will be 2026… My beloved Mizzou Tigers laid an egg at the Gator Bowl game and lost… UGH! And Kathy celebrated her birthday (day after Christmas) by doing nothing! She deserved to do nothing, after all the Christmas stuff she worked on!  It was 65 degrees on Christmas, so obviously, no White Christmas for us…  Where was that 65 degrees the year I received a new bike for Christmas when I was a youngster?  Marmalade takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Reflections of My Life… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

When I was reading The Night Before

Christmas to my daugher’s kindergarten class. I said to myself, I wonder how many times this classic has been read.  Too many for me to even think of, but that got me thinking… And I came up with a thought that I would dust off a previous year’s Christmas Pfenning in hopes that it gets read again! So with no further Ado…

T’was the night before Christmas

And all through the house

The occupants were congratulating each other

For their stimulus, but  not me

I’m such a grouch!

The debt level in this country

Has gotten out of control

But I’ve cried wolf for years

And still the spenders are on a roll.

The stockings were hung by the Chimney with care

In hopes that St. Nicholas would seen be there.

My grandkids I hope are all nestled in bed

With visions of PlayStations, and games

Dancing in their heads…

When on my laptop screen I saw such clatter

I had to click on to see what was the matter

$900 Billion more is being printed from thin air

And no one in Washington DC seem to care…

People that don’t make much will soon get a check

Let’s hope it keeps them from becoming a wreck!

 I went to the window to yell at the walls

And outside were carolers singing Deck The Halls…

And then with a blink of an eye did appear?

But a miniature sleigh and 8 flying reindeer!

This must be Santa, with gifts for all the girls and boys

I hope he has something for me

And I’m not talking about toys…

I’m hoping that he has cleared the air

Of this virus, and we can get back to life

Instead of going outside on a dare…

I’m hoping that 2021 is full of joy and happiness

So that we can forget 2020

But that will be so difficult, no less…

Now I’ve forgotten all about the markets

And the manipulations, and dots and twits

It’s time for Christmas, and besides those

Things give me the fits!

My grandkids are ready to see what Santa brought them

And I whistled and shouted and called them by name

On Delaney, On Everett, On Braden, and little Evie

To the living room we go to open our gifts

But remember please that the greatest gift of all

Is what we call Christmas Day… When

The Good Lord was born…

So, with all the calamity going on

I sneak out of site,

And say a prayer that this scene can go on forever…

And then I saw Santa and his reindeer, take off

And I heard him exclaim

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a Good Night!

Chuck Butler, Christmas 2020 reprinted 2025

PS… I always include a little message at this time, so here goes..

May the light & warmth of the season bring comfort & joy

To your family and friends this Christmas Season…

Chuck Butler