The SPR Gets Refilled…

September 6, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday

* Where will take little Jimmy with the day care closed? 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I was badly remiss yesterday to not have mentioned that we lost a great performer, writer, musician, person, in Jimmy Buffett last week… Skin Cancer was the culprit… There’s something that I think everyone should know about here, and that is that it is proven that the vaccines that were given to the masses, cause problems with people that have cancer… Don’t believe me? Well, there are studies, and from someone that does have cancer, I read them all… So, do your homework, if you don’t believe me on that! I saw Jimmy Buffett in concert, twice in my lifetime, he put on a show that had everyone dancing in their seats… Hey! Even the country music folks liked him!   Wasted away again in Margaritaville… RIP Jimmy Buffett…   The Scorpions greet me this morning with their song: No One Like You…   I know, I know, I should have cued up a Jimmy Buffett song this morning… 
I always let the songs play out, on shuffle, and that way, they come up in no particular order, which is exactly how I like my music… I grew up in S. St. Louis, listening to KXOK, which was pop/ current hits radio, and that meant it would go from a hard rock song to a soul song to an R&B song, to teeny pop… That’s how I like my music played, so that’s why I didn’t have a Jimmy Buffett song cued up for this morning… 
Well, that was quite the intro this morning… carrying on about music, isn’t what these folks come to this letter for, Chuck… Get with it now!   OK… Well, Yesterday, I told you how the dollar bugs were dancing in the streets, and the dollar buying that took place on Friday, carried overnight Monday to continue on Tuesday with the BBDXY gaining 8 index points on the day… It’s a moon shot for the dollar folks… And there’s nothing I can do about that!  I would only be fooling myself if I thought my words could convince traders and investors that they were making a big mistake… So, I won’t waste the breath, or the fat finger exercises to talk about that… 
Gold got sold all day on Tuesday and ended up down $12.40 to $1,926.60, and Silver, too, got sold to the tune of 44-cents to end the day at $22.61…   Beep, Beep, Beep… What’s that you ask? It’s the backup warning sound as the truck backs up to buy Gold & Silver at these levels… The question is… will you be driving that truck? 
The price of Oil regained that buck it lost the previous day, and ended the day trading with a $86 handle… It just so happens that the Special Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is getting refilled, after draining it to a very low level in a political move by the Administration…  Here’s Wolfstreet.com on this: “The price of crude-oil grade WTI rose to $87.12 per barrel this morning, the highest all year, the highest since November 2022. From June, when WTI was $69 a barrel, the price has now jumped by 28%.

The jump today came after Saudi Arabia (from which the US buys little crude oil) said it would extend its July production cuts through December, as widely expected; and after Russia (from which the US, even before the bans, imported only minuscule amounts of crude oil and petroleum products) said that it would extend its output reduction through the end of the year.

And the US has started to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which had been drained by half to force down the price of crude oil during the spike. But stocks have now increased for the fourth week in a row.” yeah, but what happens when the price of Oil reached a lofty level and the vote stealers decide to sell the reserve again in an attempt to get the price of Oil cheaper, and win them more votes? I’m just saying… 

The 10-year Treasury has been on a roller coaster ride this past week… starting at 4.22% last week it fell to 4.08%, and then recovered back to 4.25% at the end of the day yesterday…  here’s my 2-cents of opinion on what happened here…  The Fed Heads saw that their costs for servicing bonds was going through the roof, and they had a ton of new issuance to get out, so they started buying bonds to reduce the yield, so that their new issues wouldn’t be at a rate so high… And once they were out of the market, the bond yield began to rise again very quickly, for it should have never been reduced in the first place!   
In the overnight markets last night….  Well, at least there was no Armageddon in the currencies last night as there was on Monday night… The dollar is flat as a pancake (Head East) and has only moved a smidgen from yesterday’s close in the U.S. The BBDXY is 1,253 again this morning.. Gold is flat to down a buck, and Silver is in the red by 22-cents this morning… Just remember this folks… if the dollar is on the warpath, because the Fed Heads have said that interest rates will go higher if inflation persists… Then it goes to play out that the dollar will get sold when the Fed Heads decide to pivot… I’m not saying they’re going to pivot any time soon, just pointing out that when they do, it should give us some relief from all this dollar strength, especially VS Gold… 
The price of Oil was steady overnight, and trades with a $86 handle this morning… And the 10-year saw its yield rise to 4.22% overnight…  Reread the paragraph above regarding my two-cents on the 10-year’s yield goin on a roller coaster ride recently…   
The short paper traders are having a blast in recent days, as they have been unopposed by any regulator, business journalist about their short papter trading, or a strong contingent of physical buying, and so their short paper trades get more bang for the buck… I’ll just say this once again… (no, you know me, I’ll probably say it 100 times more, HA!) and that is these cheaper levels sure give us good entry point to buy Gold & Silver… So, if you’ve been a procrastinator and dragged your feet with regards to buying Gold… Here you go!  I have to say that in my heart of hearts I truly believe that the short paper traders won’t be around forever, and that would lead me to really re-think my metals allocation in my investment portfolio…  I’m just saying…  But… Got Gold? 
Well… I came across this yesterday from the good folks at GATA: “Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs, who has closely followed the gold market in China for many years, today provides his estimates of China’s official gold reserves and the amount of gold held by the country’s residents. It’s a lot in both respects.

Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “Estimated Chinese Gold Reserves Cross 5,000 Tonnes”

Chuck again… You know, I used to keep a back of the envelope count on the transfers to Hong Kong, but then I got tired of doing that to no avail, and quit… But by my calcs, the total Chinese Gold Reserves were around 10,000 Tonnes…  And that’s greater than the 8,000 Tons that the U.S. supposedly has… Remember the old saying, “He who has the Gold, makes the Rules”…  I’m just saying… 
Central Banks around the world bought 1,136 Metric Tons of physical Gold in 2022… And in 2023 through the first 3 months they had bought 228 tons more… (it takes some time for these numbers to come together, so they lag) But you see the trend here, right? And what do these Central Banks around the world use to pay for all this Gold? Well, most likely they are selling dollars to buy the Gold… At least that’s how I see the trade going… 
Follow the money… It’s one of the first things I remember my dad telling me when I was older and understood money… Well, if we follow the money, the money is going into physical Gold…  need I say more? 
Well, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep their internal rate unchanged at 4.00% yesterday… I had help out hope that they would surprise the markets with a rate hike, but that was not to be…  And now I would think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also keep their official cash rate unchanged… UGH!   
The Aussie dollar (A$) got sold on the news, and what was once thought by me to be a real move higher in the currency for its association with commodities, didn’t pan out…   Well, if I’m correct, that inflation is going to come back with a vengeance then maybe eventually the A$ will get bought again… 
The rise in the price of Oil is a good steppingstone for higher inflation folks… 
I foucsed on the Jobs Jamboree that took place last Friday, in yesterday’s Pfennig… The thing I wat to make sure that doesn’t get rolled over without notice is the fact that the BLS (Bureau of Lies & Statistics) has been goosing the payroll numbers ever month for 2 years now… Well, we all know they were doing it before then too, but only recently has the BLS come clean on their hedonic adjustment, called the Birth/ Death Model…  Here’s zerohedge.com with their thought on this: ” every single monthly payrolls print in 20-23 has been revised lower (see chart below), a 12-sigma probability and virtually impossible unless there was political pressure to massage the data higher initially and then revise it lower when nobody is looking.

But wait there’s more: while July was revised down by 30K from +187,000 to +157,000, June was revised even more, by 80,000, from +185,000 to +105,000, which means that a number that was originally reported as 209K has been revised 50% lower, to 105K and a collapse vs original expectations of 230K. Here, the BLS was proud to report that “with these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.”
Chuck again… you don’t know how happy that makes me to know that all these months that I would show the jobs that the BLS would add after the surveys, would be confirmed as bogus! And I know that you all have been saying for months now that you’re tired of reading about how the BLS added jobs out of thin air, but the markets not reacting to it…  Well, by revising these numbers after the fact, the BLS does do so under the cover of darkness so that the markets do not react unfavorably… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the July Factory Orders, of which I told you to expect them to be negative, and they were negative -2.1% in July…   Today’s Cupboard we’ll see the color of: the Trade Deficit, a Fed Head speaker, and the Fed Beige Book… Nothing really to move the markets here… so move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 
To recap… The dollar bugs were dancing in the street yesterday, with the BBDXY having added almost 14 index points since last Friday morning… 8 index points were gained yesterday, and the dollar is becoming overbought once again… Gold lost $12 yesterday, and Silver lost 44-cents… Chuck thinks that a truck should be backed up to buy these metals at these cheaper levels… 
For What It’s Worth… Well the pickens were quite slim this morning for FWIW articles… I did find this one that talks about the threat to women working, which could upset the economy, and it can be found here: Child-Care Funding Expiration Risks Disrupting Women’s Work Force Gains – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “The historic labor force gains US women have made in recent months are at risk of stalling or even reversing as a pandemic-era lifeline to daycare providers expires, with more than 70,000 child-care programs estimated to be in danger of closing.

The clock is set to run out at the end of September on $24 billion in government aid, hurting child-care providers already struggling with soaring costs and labor shortages. Some 3.2 million children could lose their spots, according to a recent estimate by the Century Foundation.
The centers that survive could resort to decreased staffing, reduced operating hours or higher tuition to plug the financial hole. That upheaval threatens to push parents — especially women — to work fewer hours, switch to less-demanding roles or leave the labor force entirely.
Historic Comeback for US Women
Prime-age women’s labor force participation reached a record this summer
A high cost for child care “alters that calculation of whether going back to work, or continuing work, is worth it for a lot of parents,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.

Labor-force participation among women aged 25-54 climbed to a record high this summer, and companies have more women on their payrolls than ever before.”

Chuck again…  And most of those gains in job creations came about because the Day Care Centers re-opened, but now are in danger of closing again… 
Market Price 9/6/2023: American Style: A$ 6390, kiwi .5892, C$ .7327, euro 1.0741, sterling 1.2563, Swiss $1.1232, European Style: rand 19.2575, krone 10.7058, SEK 11.0914, forint 362.25, zloty 4.1911, koruna 22.5439, RUB 97.88, yen 147.36, sing 1.3615, HKD 7.8420, INR 83.13, China 7.3035, peso 17.52, BRL 4.9712, BBDX 1,253.82, Dollar Index 104.67, Oil $86.34, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $23.41, Platinum $916.00, Palladium $1,207.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $1,925.74
That’s it for today… Well, how about that? My beloved Cardinals had a slugfest with the mighty Atlanta Braves last night, and dueled them to a tie in the home run contest… The Cardinals won the game 10-6, so  a good night all around for my beloved Cardinals, who have 24 more games to play this season that got away from them early on… Good friend, Duane stopped by yesterday, while I was outside reading after eating lunch, and said, “did your readers let you know you forgot to mention Jimmy Buffett’s passing away?”  We laughed and I said, ” I won’t forget tomorrow!”  Well… fight Tigers fight for Old Mizzou…. I had my black & Gold on last Thursday but, the cable co that Use is in contract fight with Disney the owner of ESPN, who won’t show their channels while in negotiations… UGH! I had to restor to listening to “Tiger Mike” broadcast the game on the radio… If this goes on too much longer, I’ll leave the cable co I’m with and go somewhere else… These folks really get under my skin!   Time to hit the send button, so… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their great song: Nights In White Satin…  a great slow dance song for sure! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Dollar Buying Goes Viral!

September 5, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold in recent sessions

* We, as a country, are going to give banking to who? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to September… Which is also the title song of one of my favorite tunes!  Well, did you have a great holiday weekend? I was so bummed because usually, we have the Butler Labor Day BBQ & Pool Party, but this year it had to be cancelled because our house is in ruins, from the flood caused by a broken water pipe while we were on Vacation… UGH!  I missed cooking all day on my Big Green Egg, and Weber grills… And this year, I have a Blackstone Griddle added, that I had great plans for… But those had to be put on hold… Oh well, we’re here, and no one was hurt, so we carry on… I’m doing much better these days, with the bleeding abating, along with my stomach problems… Thanks to those of you who said an extra prayer for me…  
Eddie Floyd greets me this morning with his great 60’s song: Knock on Wood… 
Well, what got the dollar bugs all lathered up on Friday? Was it the better than expected Jobs number? Was it the improvement of the ISM Manufacturing Index?  Or, was it someting on the outside that got the ball rolling for the dollar bugs, like PPT intervention?  I say that because at 8:00 a.m. on Friday morning the BBDXY was down 1 index point at 1,239…  And then suddenly, the dollar shot higher like it was on a moon shot… The BBDXY ended the day up 5.47 Index points to 1,245.62…  The euro, which had reached 1.09 the previous day, fell all the way through the 1.08 handle to trade with a 1.07 handle to close the week… There’s some news on the euro that I’ll get to in a minute… But first…
Gold ended the day exactly at the same level to the the penny, that it ended Thursday… $1,940.60… As Ed Steer said in his Saturday letter, “I don’t think that happened by accident either”… Gold actually was up $20 higher during the day, but then was subjected to short paper trading, and so, all its gains were erased…  Silver wasn’t allowed to end the day/ week, on an up note, falling short on Friday by 24-cents, to end the week at $24.26
You know, a long time ago, back when I was first learning the ropes to trading, a wise man told me that the “Commitment of Traders Report” (COT) Was not something to ignore, that it indicated what Traders were going long, and that could very well mean good things for the asset you’re watching….   Through the years, I’ve followed Ed Steer’s reporting of the COT, and I have to say that the recent COT’s have been very good for Gold… But what good does that do, when the short paper traders can wipe out a day’s gains in a NY Minute?  
The price of Oil has responded to the news that Russia will narrow their Oil production… On Thursday, last week, Oil rose $4, and then on Friday it added another $2, to end the week trading with an $86 handle!  Even with the interference that has been hanging over the price of Oil like the Sword of Damocles couldn’t compete with the suppy/ demand price discovery in Oil…  
The 10-year Treasury Note, saw its yield rise on Friday, after all the shenanigans of earlier in the week, with what I know in my bones was Fed intervention to bring rates back down with buying, even though they are supposed to be out of the bond buying business… The 10-year’s yield ended the week at 4.18%, after it had fallen as low at 4.07% the day before… 
Yesterday, with the U.S. markets closed, the rest of the world went about their business of trading, the volumes were as Ed Steer calls them, Vapors, but the dollar gained another index point, Gold lost $1.60, Silver lost 20-cents, and the price of Oil was steady at $86… There wasn’t much to the trading day, and so we move along to the overnight markets last night.. 
In the overnight markets last night… What the heck is going on here? The overnight markets have ambushed the currencies and the BBDXY has gained over 7 index points overnight!  This is really getting out of hand, folks… I would say that the only bright spot to all this dollar buying, is that the currencies and metals are cheaper, and represent good buying opportunities… Gold is down $7 to start the day, and Silver is down 40-cents… The short paper traders are working overtime, here folks… It’s a shame to watch them destroy values the way they do… But one day, they won’t exist, and we can all be like the munchkins in The Wizard of Oz, when the Good Witch, Glinda, says, “come out, you can come out now”….  Now, we just need someone to drop a house on the short paper traders…. 
Even the Petrol Currencies that include: the ruble, krone, peso, sterling, loonie, and others, have had this tug-o-war going on with the price of Oil rising it takes these currencies higher VS the dollar, and then on the other hand, they have the price of the dollar pulling them down…  Sort of like the angel and the devil on your shoulder… The angle tells you not to do something, but the devil says, go ahead what’s it going to hurt?  And then you rue the day you listened to the devil…   
The price of Oil has slid down to an $85 handle this morning, but the writing is on the wall here folks… The U.S. hates Oil, but the rest of the world still is aware that Oil is what made them what they are, and that it needs to be protected and used… And with the Oil producers, i.e. Russia, saying they are going to cut production even more, then the dynamics of supply and demand come back… 
Well, I hate to have to do this, but we might as well go straight to the Data Cupboard’s yield from last week… Because if you read the reports about the dollar’s rally, it was tied to these data prints… (I’m not buying it, one iota, but then you didn’t expect me to did you?)   The Jobs Jamboree on Friday last week showed that 187,000 jobs had been created in August, with 103,000 of them being added to the surveys by the BLS out of thin air… That would put the job creation in August at just 54,000… And I’m sure the BLS saw that, and panic set in, knowing all too well that the Big Guy, won’t like that, so they added 103,000 made up jobs to the surveys, and that made the day for the markets, who look to the hedonic adjustment with a blind eye… 
And so, then the question would be: Why would the markets think that 187,000 jobs created was good? Because it beat the expectation of 177,000, and was better than July’s 157,000… 
The other thing about the Jobs Jamboree is the Hourly Wages, and I’ve always told you that this piece of the print was the more important piece of data than the jobs created… And There was some good news in the Hourly Wages data, which showed an annual basis being up 4.3%… With “real inflation” running around 8%, that means wages aren’t keeping up with inflation… And should be a downer for the markets, but… they refuse to let the “real inflation “enter their sweet imaginations, and so to them, wages are above the stupid CPI inflation… 
And then there was this… from zerohedge.com; “Inside Today’s Disastrous Jobs Report: 670K Full-Time Jobs Lost in 2 Months vs. 1 Million Part-Time Surge; Worst Unadjusted August Payrolls Since Great Recession”   
Then there was the ISM Manufacturing Index, where it has been hanging out below 50 for months now… It remained below 50 at 47.6%, which was better than July’s 46%… But still below 50, which is the indicator that decides whether manufacturing is expanding or contracting… 
And finally, there was some bad news for those who believe that the Fed Heads have defeated inflation… The Fed Heads preferred inflation calculator the PCE showed that inflation rose in August to 4.3%, from 4.1%… See? I told you that our inflation was going to be sticky… and will also be difficult to rope in… as long as the Fed Heads keep interest rates below the rate of “real inflation”… 
So, that was quite the datapalooza, eh?  And from all of that nonsense the dollar bugs saw the dollar gain ground like an Oklahoma land rush!   
I really don’t get it folks, why the dollar was such a buy last Friday… The data was NOT that good, in fact it was sketchy in parts, and certainly not something that would get me all lathered up if I were still a currency trader.
So… Moving on… I found this on Twitter yesterday: The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter
“Excess household savings in the US have fallen for 23 STRAIGHT months.
Since 2022, excess savings in the US have been falling by $100 billion per MONTH on average.
The San Francisco Fed estimates that remaining household savings will be depleted this quarter.
Just over 2 years ago, Americans had a record $2.1 TRILLION in excess savings.
Current estimates put savings at a mere $190 billion.

Debt will soon be the answer for many more people.”

Ok, Chuck again… now that’s something that, if I were still a currency trader I would be using to sell dollars… I’m just saying… 
Now, I’m not saying that all of that spending of savings cash went toward who knows what? I do realize that a ton of cash has been moving to money market accounts and CD’s…   But most of that money that was moved to those accounts was reportedly coming from stocks…   So… I still say this is dangerous for the dollar… 
OK… so around the world, sees that most central banks are weighing the end of their rate hike cycle…  I would hope not, given how inflation will come back to bite them in the rear…  But that’s another reason for the dollar bugs to be doing jumping Jacks in the street these days… Shoot Rudy, even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ( has taken a pause for the cause, and that really bothers me, because the RBNZ has long had a reputation of being ahead of inflation… I know I’ve told you this story before, but long ago in a far away time, I met the Gov. of the RBNZ in LA… We talked at end, and then he gave me his card with his personal line at the RBNZ on it and told me to call him if I ever had a question about the RBNZ’s monetary policy…  After a few months I finally got the chance to call him when the RBNZ had left rates unchanged, when it appeared that they would be hiking rates…  I called his line, and lo and behold, it was Don Brash, Gov. of the RBNZ on the other end of the phone! 
years ago, when I turned 60, my good friend, and boss at the time, Frank Trotter, reached out ot the many contacts I had amassed through the years, and asked them to send me a note on birthday… I was suprised to see one from Don Brash!   
Alrighty then, I’ve got a million of them! A million stories about my time in the markets… And maybe one day, when I’m really feeling like it, I’ll sit down and write them all down, and into a book… Now, that would be something, eh? 
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week was gone through with a fine tooth comb above today… And the data the rest of the week is sparse… Today we will see the latest color of the Factory Orders, for July, and given the Durable Goods Orders negative print last week, I’ll say that Factory Orders too will be negative for July… The rest of the week will be hit and miss on diferent data prints, but none of them are market moving, so we have that going for us!
To recap… The dollar bugs went on the warpath on Friday, after the day’s datapalooza printed… The BBDXY gained over 5 index points on the day, and Chuck doesn’t see the reason for all that excitement… But it is what it is, and the dollar kicked some tail and took names later on Friday… Chuck tells us a story about his old days as a currency trader, and his new found friend from down under…  
For What It’s Worth… This article had me scratching my bald head, and you’ll be scratching your head too after reading it… I don’t get it… first we allowed Brokerage Co’s to bank, and now this?  The article is about how the agencies are looking to give more banking powers to institutions not considered to be banks, and it can be found here: US officials weigh pathway to let more firms tap Federal Home Loan Banks – Bloomberg News (yahoo.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. officials are exploring ways to allow a broader base of financial firms, including nonbank mortgage lenders, to borrow from Federal Home Loan Banks, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Any expansion would, however, ultimately need congressional action, and would also likely require firms to agree to more government oversight, the report said.
U.S. FHL Banks have been beefing up their lending war chests to provide more liquidity to banks amid higher-than-usual demand for funds following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY) in the United States and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse.
FHL Banks are 11 regional government-chartered institutions that raise money for low-cost lending to their members. They are a vital source of funding to regional banks and often a preferred final stop for cash before banks in need turn to the Federal Reserve itself as a last resort.

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.”

Chuck again… The old folk song said it best… “When will they ever learn?, When, will, they, ever, learn?”
Market Prices 9/4/2023: American Style: A$ 6368, kiwi .5868, C$ .7328, euro 1.0736, sterling 1.2555, Swiss $1.1251, European Style: rand 19.1808, krone 10.7306, SEK 11.0920, forint 369.26, zloty 4.1802, koruna 22.5067, RUB 97.41, yen 1.4738, sing 1.3615, HKD 7.8400, INR 83.03, China 7.3040, peso 17.26, BRL 4.9567, BBDXY 1,252.48, Dollar Index 104.70, Oil $85.35, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $22.60, Platinum $945.00, Palladium $1,209.00, Copper $3.82, and Gold… $1,931.14
That’s it for today… A very nice weather-wise weekend was on the docket for us here in the Midwest this past holiday weekend… On Friday night, a young lady asked me why I looked so bummed… I told her that usually on that Friday before Labor Day, I was busy cooking all day, preparing for the Annual Butler Family Labor Day BBQ & Pool Party… And then I had to tell her why it was cancelled this year… UGH!  I was not aware that I was wearing my displeasure on my face!  Oh well… time goes on… My beloved Cardinals won 2-3 from the Padres, and lost 2-3 to the Pirates… one step forward, two steps back…  And my super beloved Mizzou Tigers won their opener in fine fashion last Thursday night… Go Tigers! Our StL City team went 1-1 last week… The losing game was a real gut wrencher though, as a referee’s call proved to be the difference… UGH!  Wednesday night last week, I spent the night at the ER… my jaw, where the mass is, was bleeding and I couldn’t get it to stop!  So, I went to the hospital thinking they would get it to stop… But after 2 hours they threw their hand up in the air!  It finally stopped and I went home and it hasn’t bled since… Very strange ordeal, I must say!   Ok… The band Outkast takes us to the finish line today with their song: Hey YA…   (A good way to get going for me this morning!) I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Back To Dollar Selling…

August 30, 20223

* Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday… 

* What’s going on in Bonds?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the weather has been warm this week so far, so that’s good for me going outside to read during the day… My kids make fun of my really tanned knees… I read an entire book outside yesterday, but had to move under the umbrella after a while in sun… I had a nice call from Good Friend, Dennis Miller, and we tossed around some ideas for a letter…  I know that I’ve mentioned Dennis’ letter “Miller On The Money” to you all before and many of you have signed up for his free letter, but there are still many more of my dear readers that haven’t done so, yet… Go to www.milleronthemoney.com  and sign up!  Iam Gomm greets me this morning with his 80’s song: Hold On… 
Well, at the beginning of this month, that’s what the dollar was doing… Holding on… It was down 16% on the year, and looking like it would go on a long-term weak trend…. And then it wasn’t holding on any longer, an gained back 12% since then…  Yesterday, the dollar got sold and really sold, I might add, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points on the day. What caused this turnaround on our Tuesday?   Well, if you read the headlines in the financial news , you would know that a weak Consumer Confidence report yesterday, caused the dollar to get sold…  I say, Mularky! Since when does the Stupid Consumer Confidence really have anything to do with the dollar trading?   The dollar got sold yesterday, because it had become overbought…  Now we’ll have to see if the selling continues, or if this was just a one and done, correction… 
Gold took up the cue from the weak dollar, and climbed $17.40 on the day yesterday! Gold ended the day at $1,938.20, and Silver gained 50-cents to close the day at $24.81…   So, it was a “Turnaround Tuesday” yesterday, and one that we hadn’t seen since the beginning the month… 
The other data yesterday was the Jobs Openings, which for the longest time would come in around 10 Million each month… But in recent days, it appears that people are “finally going back to work” Because the Job Openings fell to 8.8 Million last month… And traders looked at that, and thought….  the Fed Heads won’t need to hike rates… So, that helped sell the dollar, and buy Gold yesterday… 
The price of Oil bumped higher again and then time it ended the day with an $81 handle…  And apparently someone was in buying bonds by the boatload, because the yield on the 10-year fell to 4.12% yesterday… What are people thinking here? Well, I guess that should be looked at differently… and wonder who’s buying that much of the bond that they could move yields like that? Well, can you say…. The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel? I knew you could… 
In the overnight markets last night…  it does seem that the dollar selling will continue for now… The BBDXY has lost 2 index points overnight, and the euro has climbed back over the 1.09 figure… The Euro wannabes, (forints, zloty and koruna) are all on the rally tracks, so there’s an indication that I use to determine the strength of the dollar selling… Gold is up $7 in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 5-cents… And get this… The 10-year’s yield has slid all the way down to 4.11%… That’s a two-day total of 11 Basis Points off the yield, which means the bond price has gone up and the only thing that moves a bond price higher is buying…   Lots of buying in chunks as I go back to my bond trading days, and know that it takes a lot to move a bond’s yield…   
One of these days, Alice…. To The Moon!  What a great old show eh? Well, I like to use that phrase from the old TV show, with Jackie Gleason, from time to time to highlight a move in an asset that warrants it…  And yesterday it was Gold… Sure it could have been an evern greater day for Golf without the daily interference, and maybe in the coming days we’ll see even better days…. But like I’ve always told you dear reader, that if you want to get rid of the short paper traders, the physical purchases of Gold by everyone and I mean everyone, would do the trick… There is still a very large percentage of people in this country that don’t own 1 ounce of Gold…  Oh, they have the latest iPhones, the latest large screen TV’s, the newest automobiles, and can take extravagant holidays, but do they have any store of wealth?  Tsk, Tsk, Tsk… 
Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a picture from a Gas Station that had their sign out front that said, “Has Anyone Tried Unplugging the U.S. and then plugging it back in?”  that took me back to when on our old Mark Twain Bank World Markets trading desk, we all got our own personal computer… We had a tech guy named Taru, and whenever he would walk by, and we would say, “Hey Taru, my computer isn’t working” He would reply, “Have you turned it and back on again?”   So, this sign was a great memory for me… And that’s what it would take to get us all moving in the right direction again, and that is to unplug the U.S. and then pub it back in! 
Ok, call off the dogs! The UAE says that their relationships with the West will be unchanged going forward…  Yeah, I believe that, like I belive in the tooth fairy!  This from Bloomberg.com this morning: “The UAE is looking to its membership as an opportunity to develop trade and plans to commit more capital to the New Development Bank, the lender created by BRICS that the Gulf state joined two years ago, Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“We are actually going to push more” and will “indeed” inject capital into the bank.”

Chuck again, ok, so you’re telling me that you’re going to push for more in the BRICS, and inject more capital in the BRICS bank and that won’t move you to do more trade with BRICS members?  Words… It’s a battle of words, and most of them are lies… (Pink Floyd) 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned stupid Consumer Confidence data yesterday… The index fell from 114.8 to 106.1… That’s quite a fall, and while I poopooed it above, it did fall quite a bit… But like I said yesterday, this report is nothing more than a pulse of the stock market… So, apparently, the folks asked their opinion, weren’t happy with the stock market’s performance…   So what?  
I forgot to mention that previously that the Dallas Fed Survey, which is a pulse taken on their Manufacturing Sector, fell to a level (not counting the Covid year) not seen since May 2016… The quote from zerohedge.com had someone saying that “our sector is in recession”… 
To Recap… The dollar got sold on Turnaround Tuesday yesterday, and now we need to see if there’s follow-up in selling or if it was just a one and done correction because the dollar was very overbought… Gold had a great day, but not as good as it could have been without interference… The Texas manufacturing sector is in recession, but you didn’t hear about that on the TV news, did you?  No, you only heard about it here!  
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve been holding this one for a few days, waiting for the time I needed a FWIW article, and that day is today…. This is Paul Craig Roberts, and his thoughts on the fall of our Empire… And it can be found here: PaulCraigRoberts.org » Realistically, How Strong Is America? » Print
Or, here’s your snippet: “America’s weakness is overlooked by investment analysts. Having offshored manufacturing, the US is import-dependent, and having weaponized the dollar Washington is causing foreign central banks to stop holding dollars as reserves.  The consequence is that the US has a rising issuance of debt to finance trade and budget deficits, but a declining supply of customers for that debt.  Either the Federal Reserve has to monetize the debt or interest rates will rise.

Note also that it appears there will be in about 4 months a large expansion of BRICS. Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have been invited to join.  I assume the Russians have the diplomatic sense not to invite someone unless they know they will accept. Otherwise, Russia will have set herself up for the Western media headline, “Country X refuses Russia’s invitation.”
In a slap down of Washington signifying the termination of the petrodollar, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said, “the special, strategic relations with the BRICS nations promotes common principles, most importantly the firm belief in the principle of respect for sovereignty, independence and non-interference in internal affairs.”
BRICS expansion will make the two largest South American countries members, and with the Saudis, Iranians, and UAE almost the entirety of Middle East oil goes into the Russian organization, which with Russia’s oil is essentially the world’s oil supply, and Egypt sits on the Suez Canal. China and India, the largest part of Asia, are already members. This suggests to me that the US dollar is headed for trouble and will need interest rate support.  If the dollar loses exchange value, the cost of imports will drive US inflation considerably higher. The worst inflations are always caused by currency decline. Gold investments make a lot of sense for Americans assuming that the criminals in Washington who are ruling us don’t confiscate them.
Keep in mind also that the indictments of Trump are completely phony.  If  white-hating black Democrat prosecutors and white-hating black Democrat juries convict Trump of these phony charges, political upheaval could result.  If the Americans simply accept the false conviction of an American president, they will fall into tyranny and no asset will be safe.  

The real American situation could be very different from what Wall Street thinks. Dollar problems could make the US an unsafe investment climate.”

 
Chuck again….  This article is long, and ventures into the problems for white Americans, for which I wasn’t going to use that part for I don’t like talking about stuff like that… 
Market Prices 8/30/2023: American Style: A$ .6495, kiwi .5985, C$ .7382, euro 1.0912, sterling 1.2693, Swiss $1.1390, European Style: rand 18.5340, krone 10.5692, SEK 10.8265, forint 347.47, zloty 4.0958, koruna 22.0896, RUB 96.14, yen 146.02, sing 1.3509, HKD 7.8473, INR 82.73, China 7.2866, peso 16.73, BRL 4.8486, BBDXY 1,235.48, Dollar Index 103.24, Oil $81.50, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $24.86, Platinum $990.00, Palladium $1,268.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $1,944.60
That’s it for today… Well, looky there! The Cardinals finally won a game last night!  A walk off 10th inning win to boot!  I’m keyed up for the soccer game tonight… our StL City team plays Dallas here at City Park!  And don’t forget, no Pfennig tomorrow, and then I’ll see you… In September… See you, when the summer’s through… (The Happenings)  Betcha you didn’t know who sang that song!  I put out a challenge on a song to my local watering hole buddies a week ago, and only one of them replied, and he was wrong..  Man, I thought, that was a lame response!  Oh well, I’m looking forward to the next few days of warm weather and not a return of the heat…  A hurricane has its sights on Florida, but right now, it’s thought to go way north of my place in S. Florida… I hope everyone takes this seriously, and prepares for the hurricane…  The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with a great song from their Seventh Sojourn album” New Horizons”  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and rest of the week… Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Will The BRICS Cause A Currency Regime Change?

August 29, 2023

* light volume dollar buying yesterday & overnight

* yen begins its slide to 1990 levels?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals are now 20 games under .500… I don’t recall the last time that has happened…  All that talk early in the season when they weren’t winning games they should have won, that it was “too early in the year” to matter… But, Like I’ve always contended, the games you win in April are games you don’t have to win in September…. And when you don’t “have to win” a game the wins come easier… But my Cardinals haven’t won in April, May, June, July and now especailly, August… UGH!  It would be be easier on me,  if I took my wife’s view on all this… It’s just a game…  The Guess Who greets me this morning with their 60’s mega hit: These Eyes… 
Well, after gaining 1 index point in the BBDXY overnight on Sunday to Monday morning, the dollar didn’t move the rest of the day, a little back and forth, but ended the day in the same clothes it wore that morning… Here we are once again, with the dollar bugs having bought dollars like they were going out of style on Friday, but then there’s no follow through on Monday… There’s something to be said about moving too far, too fast…  What? Did the dollar bugs rethink their “buy the dollar on the fed rate hikes” thinking? Maybe some of them read the Pfennig yesterday, and came to the conclusion that if the Fed raises rates further, then they are doing so because inflation has remained high or gone higher…. There’s no net gain there…   I doubt that’s what had them sitting on their hands yesterday, but maybe, just maybe because you never know!  (Joachin Andujar) 
Gold ended the day up $ 4.80 at $1,920.60… And Silver lost 2 pennies on the day to end at $24.30…  If we could ever have a period of time without interference, I think we would see Gold gain, especially given the buying that’s going on in physical Gold by Central Banks around the world… I would think that given the judge’s ruling last week, that the two JPMorgan metals traders would go to jail for their manipulation of Gold prices, that those that do the dirty deeds for the government, would be a little scared that they might end up in Jail too… 
The price of Oil flipped back to $80 yesterday, the same-o, same-o, for this asset went on yesterday, and why not? That’s been the trading pattern for the last couple of weeks… 
In the overnight markets last night…. There was a little dollar buying overnight, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points to start the day today at 1,242… Gold is down $2 to start the day today, and Silver is down 9-cemts…  No Big shakes here, these are levels that can easily be turned around… I can’t believe that Gold & Silver have been caught up in the usual August dog days of summer trading this year… I really thought that they would skip the usual slowdown because of all of the saber rattling, debt explosion, inflation soaring going on… But I was wrong… There! I said it… Mark this day down in your logbooks or diaries, because this is something I rarely am, and if I am, I certainly don’t admit it! HA! 
The price of Oil remained above $80 overnight, so no slippage there… And the 10-year’s yield was 4.22% this morning to start the day… I think the yield on the 10-year Treasury is just biding its time, waiting for the next wave of bonds being issued… With a Budget Deficit right now at $1.6 Trillion, and going higher before ending at the end of Sept. (The U.S.’s fiscal year) There’s a lot more debt coming that will have to financed folks… So, now is not the time to be locking in a rate, and thinking that you got in at the top!  At least that’s my 2-cents this morning on bonds… 

I saw this on Reuters yesterday, and it about says it all… ” Record levels of government debt, geopolitical tensions that threaten to split the global trading system, and the likely persistence of weak productivity gains may saddle the world with a slow-growth future that stunts development in some countries even before it starts.”

Nice to see someone else share my opinion, eh? 

And regarding the Budget Deficit this year, through 10 months, it has reached $1.6 Trillion… Chances are, that we could very easily reach a $2 Trillion Budget Deficit this year…  Here’s Bloomberg.com on that: “The upshot is that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the deficit to expand to roughly 6% of gross domestic product this year—and to stay in that ballpark for the next 10 years. For context, in the six decades or so between the aftermath of World War II and the 2008 crash, the shortfall never reached that level.

What’s changed is that fiscal policy is being used as a tool to prolong expansions and keep the economy humming, according to Doug Holtz-Eakin, a former CBO director who now heads the American Action Forum, a Republican-leaning think tank. “During the 1980s and 1990s there was more of a focus on the long-term picture and making sure our fiscal house is in order,” he says. “And they let the Fed take responsibility for the business cycle.”

Chuck again… And all that debt has to be financed, folks… We finance our debt by selling Treasury bonds and Bills…  For those that don’t know… T-Bills are 1-year and in… T-Notes are 2-years to 10-years, and T-Bonds are anything longer…   Now that we have that house cleaning out of the way, we can move on here… So, here’s the problem with continuing to add to our already $32 Trillion in debt…  Interest Rates are going higher on the bonds, 1. because of the Fed rate hikes, and 2. because there’s little interest in buying low yielding bonds, so yields need to go higher to attract buyers…  Well, that’s what we call a never-ending loop…   Because the interest cost for the bonds that we have issued to finance our debt has been rising, and will soon become a major portion of our yearly budget deficit… Which will only mean that we have to issue more bonds!  

A never-ending loop… until that is that the whole shootin’ match collapses…  Sure, this could go on for a few more years, or… it could end tomorrow… that’s when I ask the question… Got Gold? 

 
Wel, back to the Bank of Japan, and the Japanese yen… And no I’m not bashing it!  This from Bloomberg.com “The yen will weaken to levels last seen more than 30 years ago if the Bank of Japan sticks to its dovish stance, according to forecasters at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Over the next six months the yen is projected to reach 155 per dollar — the weakest since June 1990 — according to the bank’s strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi. They had previously expected the yen to trade to 135.”
Chuck again… Ahhh… So, I see, said the blind man as he spit into the wind… It’s all coming back to me now… Wasn’t Goldman aka Lola one of those that thought the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would begin to hike rates and that yen would rally?  So, i guess now they got their feeling hurt when that didn’t happen (and they didn’t listen to Chuck like they should have) and now they come out lashing away at yen…. Well, you know what I say about what Lola wants…. Lola gets… 
The Russian ruble has been through the gauntlet in recent weeks… The Central Bank had to raise rated 350 Basis Points to make the currency attractive once again, but now that rate hike seems to be wearing thin… It’s either time to hike again, or watch the currency fade back to over 100 with the dollar…  I’m just saying..
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was empty… And today’s cupboard has just the Case/Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for June, when interest rates were still being hiked in the U.S. so I would expect this index to show more losses in price… Wel’ll also see the stupid Consumer Confidence Index…  This is simply a pulse of what the stock market is doing, not a “real confidence vote”… 
To Recap….  the dollar started yesterday up one index point, and ended the day up one index point… there was some back and forth all day, but when the whistle blew, it was trading in the same clothes it had on in morning when the day started… Chuck talks about Treasury financing this morning…  Lola says that yen is going to fall, and other things to wet your whistle (orange soda) in today’s Pfennig… 
For What It’s Worth…. This article came to me from the good folks at GATA… I also want to thank Ed Steer, for getting me on their list… So… this is Alasdair Macleod, and his take on what the BRICS decided on last week, and it can be found here: Hedging the end of fiat – Research – Goldmoney

Or, here’s your snippet: “It is slowly coming clear that the fiat dollar’s hegemony is drawing to a close. That’s what the BRICS summit in Johannesburg is all about — rats, if you like, deserting the dollar’s ship. With the dollar’s backing being no more than a precarious faith in it, it is bound to be sold down by foreign holders. Being only fiat, it could even become valueless, threatening to take down the other western alliance fiat currencies as well.

How do you protect your paper wealth from this outcome? Some swear by bitcoin and others by gold.
This article looks at what is likely to emerge as a replacement currency system, and concludes that from practical and legal aspects, bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency industry will fail with fiat, while mankind will return to gold, as it has always done in the past when state control over currency fails.
It is gradually dawning on market participants that the era of fiat currencies is drawing to a close. Monetarists, who first warned us of the inflationary consequences of the expansion of money and credit were also the first to warn us that the slowdown in monetary expansion would lead to recession, and since then we have seen broad money statistics flatline, with bank lending beginning to contract. This is interpreted by macroeconomists as the end of inflation, and the return to lower interest rates to stave off recession.
Unfortunately, this black-and-white interpretation of either inflation or recession but never both has been challenged by bond yields around the world which are rising to new highs. And the charts tell us that they are likely to go considerably higher. Consequently, conviction that inflation of producer and consumer prices will prove to be a temporary phenomenon is infected with doubt.

For those of us steeped in free market economics and with experience of the monetary and economic scene in the 1970s, the possibility of both inflation and recession occurring at the same time is less of a surprise. They called it stagflation, though the Keynesians never managed to reconcile the existence of the two conditions being present at the same time. The error, surely, is in Keynes’s denial of Say’s law, which postulates that we produce to consume. The Keynesian error was to ignore the plain fact that rising unemployment is the consequence of falling production first, so there can never be a general glut of goods in a slump which is the basis of Keynesian assumptions.”

Chuck again… Alasdair goes on to discuss why Gold will become the center of the new currency regime, and not bitcoin in the article… So, goe back, click on the link and read it… 
Market Prices 8/29/2023: American Style: A$ .6423, kiwi .5905, C$ .7341, euro 1.0811, sterling 1.2591, Swiss $1.1300, European Style: rand 18.5374, krone 10.7014, SEK 11.0022, forint 353.46, zloty 4.1344, koruna 22.3546, RUB 95.91, yen 147.00, sing 1.3557, HKD 7.8464, INR 82.70, China 7.2940, peso 16.78, BRL 4.8734, BBDXY 1,244.11, Dollar Index 104.11, Oil $80.72, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $24.21, Platinum $974.00, Palladium $1,242.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold… $1,918.22

That’s it for today… I had forgetten that on Thursday this week, I won’t be writing, as I’ll be heading to the oncologist’s office, which will be good timing because I’m having lots of bleeding problems with my jaw again… UGH!  I take blood thinners so when I begin to bleed, I bleed! I know that my oncologist will want me to stop taking my blood thinners, and my heart doctor will say no way! So, they’ll have to think outside the box!  Tomorrow night is a StL City soccer match night!  Myself and son, Andrew, will be in attendance… I’ll have to watch what I eat and drink since the next morning bright and early I’ll be at the hospital to see my oncologist! Robert Palmer takes us to the finish line today with his song: Sailing Shoes…. I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler
Creator & Editor of:
A Pfennig For Your Thoughts

Powell Says, “Inflation Is Still Too High”…

August 28, 2023

* dollar gets bought after Powell speech

* Saudi Arabia joins the BRICS… Soon there will be changes… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  What an awful weekend for St. Louis teams fans… The Cardinals continued to lose, and our StL City team lost in Orlando… Road games in the MLS are difficut to navigate, and that was proved Saturday night… The hot weather finally broke this weekend, and the cooler weather, while still warm, felt good to get outside again… Little Evie stayed with us Saturday night… She insists that she’s a “big girl” now, and she’s only 3… YIKES! I told her dad, Andrew, that he’s got a lot of “fun” days ahead of him…   And I finally turned the corner on my being sick… But guess what? I Get to start my new Chemo now… So much for being on top of the world, eh?   Oh well, it is, what it is… Little Feat greet me this morning with their song: Fat Man In A Bathtub… 
Well, Friday, was all about what did Jerome Powell say… WDJPS… The markets were waiting with bated breath for his words, and announcement of what the Fed Might be doing going forward…  This from CNBC: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come.

While acknowledging that progress has been made and saying the Fed will be careful in where it goes from here, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable. He noted that the Fed will remain flexible as it contemplates further moves but gave little indication that it’s ready to start easing anytime soon.”

OK, does that sound like the Fed Heads are ready to stop hiking rates and pivot to rate cuts? Not to me, but… Apparently to the stock jockeys that continue to not believe what Powell has to say… Stocks rallied after Powell’s speech… The dollar rallied strongly, and Gold got sold… But hold on there Chuck, Gold was getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, until it wasn’t getting sold any longer, and it rallied back to being down only $1.60 on the day, to end the week at $1,915.80. Silver had the same trading pattern, and ended the day up 11-cents to end the week at $24.32…   
I actually read an article on Kitco where the writer said that he thought the Fed gave little guidance on future rate movements… And I thought to myself… I guess he doesn’t know Fed-speak… I’m just saying… 
The BBDXY gained 5 index points on the day, to end the week at $1,242.38… I get it, the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s el jefe says that inflation is still too high, and that interest rates will most likely be going higher.. And that’s good for the dollar, but… there’s a whammy in there… he says “inflation is still too high”…  That means that whatever good the interest rates going higher give the dollar, inflation should be taking it away…  The euro lost the 1.08 handle, and is once again looking weak… The fist week of this month, the euro was looking like it was ready to go on a run VS the dollar, and now, not so much… And the rest of the currencies all fall in line with the euro, which remains the offset currency to the dollar, the main trading currency with the dollar, the Big Dog… 
The European Central Bank (ECB) President, LaGarde, said last week that inflation is still too high, and that the data would guide the ECB if higher rates are needed…  That sounded way to wishy-washy for the markets, and they started selling euros…  Memo to LaGarde… if you want to sound hawkish, then sound hawkish, don’t mail it in, or sound like you’re not sure…   
Ok, enough of the lesson giving to Christine LaGarde… Time to move on… 
The Petrol Currencies are hanging tough, especially the Mexican Peso, and Brazilian real… The gains they have booked VS the dollar have been held, and at times are added to … The Canadian dollar/ loonie, British sterling, Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, try desperately to move higher, but the dollar strength is too great right now… 
Speaking of Petrol… The price of Oil gained a buck on Friday and got back to $80…  No news in recent days about supply issues, or demand… So, this asset just drifts along to the whims of the traders… 
In the overnight markets last night… There was lttle to no movement in the dollar, the BBDXY is up 1 index point, but is fading as  I write. Gold is down just 20-cents to start the day and week, while Silver is down 15-cents. There wasn’t much movement in the currencies overnight, the Japanese yen lost another figure and is making all those that said a month or two ago that they were buying the yen on Bank of Japan comments about hiking rates… I said then that the BOJ had disappointed the markets for so long now that it would be difficult for me to take them at their word… I guess those yen buyers are finding out that now… 
The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight, and trades this morning with a $79 handle, while bonds are just biding their time awaiting on the next supply of bonds to hit the streets… 
Well, we’ve been talking about the de-dollarization that’s supposedly going on around the world… But according to SWIFT, that’s all malarky… Swift reported last week that “The figures show greenback-related trades rose to a record 46% in July, compared with slightly more than one-third a decade ago. The dollar was the top currency as measured by transaction count, followed by the euro, pound, yen, and yuan.” 
Hmmm… of course, the Russian ruble was ousted from SWIFT, and they have been beating the drum, along with China, to stop using dollars in the terms of transactions, to demand to use their own sovereign currencies… Apparently that effort is going to take some time to really affect trade in the world… 
The one thing to think about here is something I warned my audiences of many years ago… And that is, when the Saudi’s decide they no longer need to trade their oil in dollars, that will be like kryptonite for the dollar…  And then last week the BRICS made an announcement that should be a large nail in the dollar’s coffin: “With Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joining BRICS, the multilateral mechanism now includes major global oil producers and importers. Analysts said that a wider adoption of local currencies for trade among BRICS countries, rather than using the US dollar, seems more natural.

Six candidates – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – will be admitted as BRICS members on January 1, 2024, South African president announced on Thursday at the BRICS summit.

Currently, BRICS members include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.”

But did we see this news on the cable news? or the national news? NO… we didn’t, because it doesn’t spread the BS that the administration is trying to spread, about how all of this won’t mean a hill of beans… 
Circling back to the Jerome Powell Speech last Friday…  I can’t understand why the stock jockeys won’t listen to his words, and trade accordingly, they always take the contra side of his words… I read last week that tons of cash is moving out of stocks and into money markets accounts… Well, even that news is taken with a grain of salt by the stock jockeys… And that’s all I can say about this… 
OK… The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the July Durable Goods Orders, which I had warned you would probably be negative, and they were a negative -5.25%… I don’t think that illustrates a strong economy do you?  The other piece of data that came through was the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence report which lost ground in July going from 71.2 to 69.5…  This week’s data cupboard doesn’t have too much for us to see that is if you are looking for anything early in the week… Late in the week we’ll see the color of Personal Income and Spending, the ADP Employment Report and on Friday, the Jobs Jamboree…  
To recap… Powell’s words on Friday at the Jackson Hole Boondoggle, sent the dollar soaring higher… And for a while on Friday, it appeared that Gold would be getting sold down the river, but then it wasn’t and it ended the day down only $1.60… Stocks rallied, and has Chuck scratching his bald head wonder what the stock jockeys didn’t get from Powell’s words…  The Brics had their meeting last week and announced 6 new members, of which the Saudi’s are one, and one that I think will bring huge changes to Oil contracts going forward… 
For What It’s Worth… Remember Jan Nieuwenhuijs? He used to go by an alias… But he’s been a Gold researcher for a number of years, and has been with several different firms… He wrote an excellent piece last week, about how the West is losing control of the Gold price: And it can be found here: “The West Is Losing Control Over the Gold Price (gainesvillecoins.com)
Or, here’s your Snippet; “The most logical explanation for gold’s recent behavior is a combination of surreptitious buying by central banks from emerging markets, and strong private demand in Turkey and China. It’s possible the WGC’s estimates of covert central bank buying are too low, given these estimates were falling during the price spike at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

As some of you might have noticed the US dollar gold price has been declining in the last months of the period of our investigation, and London was still a net exporter. Perhaps the West will regain control over the price again. I don’t expect the gold price to fall to levels previously suggested by the rates model though.
Central bank buying is likely to stay strong. “We still believe that the official sector will remain a sizeable bullion buyer for the foreseeable future …, as factors that encouraged reserve managers to add gold reserves in recent years are expected to persist,” Metals Focus wrote this August.

We will have to wait and see if the East is able to further push up the price of gold and weaken the West’s control over the price. If so, gold will become less of a dollar derivative, and take more center stage in the international monetary system”

Chuck again… Jan goes through all sorts of reasons why he come to the conclusion, so if you have the time go to the link and read it all… But the snippet gives you the gist of his report… 
Market Prices 8/28/2023: American Style: A$.6417, kiwi .5910, C$ .7350, euro 1.0808, sterling 1.2587, Swiss $1.1305, European Style: rand 18.6664, krone 10.7084, SEK 11.0122, forint 354.17, zloty 4.1407, koruna 22.3363, RUB 96.68, yen 146.52, sing 1.3566, HKD 7.8450, INR 82.62, China 7.2933, peso 16.71, BRL 4.8778, BBDXY 1,243.17, Dollar Index 104.11, Oil $79.91, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $24.23, Platinum $950.00, Palladium $1,2761.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $1,915.60
That’s it for today… How was your weekend?   Mine started out good with a trip to my local watering hole on Friday, but then that turned out to be the top of the weekend… Of course, having little Evie here was a highlight… All the kids were here for a brief time on Saturday, to help clean up our mess in the basement, from the flood… The insurance has been sorted out, the builder has been selected, now we wait for the builder to show up to work… Until then I sit in the “ruins” of the basement to watch my games on TV… We have just 4 rooms upstairs that we can use… and only my TV room downstairs… My writing desk was saved, but has water damage so I’ll be getting a new writing desk in the future…  Fun stuff! NOT!  Jr. Walker and the All-Stars take us to the finish line with their song; What Does It Take?   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Finally!! Someone Goes To Jail!

August 23, 2023

* currencies get sold in the overnight markets

* All this debt… What will it bring us?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  My oh my, what an awful year for my beloved Cardinals… They lost another game last night, in another rout to the Pirates… The game got so bad that late in the game I turned if off and turned on the Toronto/ Baltimore game… There, real baseball was being played!  I’ve been having a lot of problems with my prosthetic eye… I guess I’ll have to go back to the ocuist and get it polished, and adjusted, I just dont’ know when I’ll have time to do that… I guess I’ll make time, eh?!  One of my all-time faorite songs is playing for me this morning as Earth Wind & Fire greet me this morning with ther song: September… That song will get you dancing in your seat in a NY minute… 
Well, I said yesterday that it appeared that the markets were already getting into their “lets wait to hear what Jerome Powell has to say on Friday”… The dollar saw some buying early, but when the dust on the day settled, the BBDXY was unchanged at 1,238…  So, my fears of this already happening, a wait-n-see attitude for the markets, appear to be in place… Oh, Goody, where can I find some more of this no movement in the markets?  The price of Gold started the day up $6, and as the morning started the short paper traders appeared once again, and took Gold down to negative territory… But Gold fought back and ended the day up $2.70 to end the day at $1,898.20, while Silver traded steady on the day closing up 9-cents to $23.45
The price of Oil seems to be stuck in the mud, at $80…  And whenever that happens, I always say, hey! That’s better than losing ground!  And the 10-year’s yield ended the day at 4.30%… I read yesterday, that the spread between the 10-year and the 30-year (the long bond) just keeps widening…   So that means there are less buyers of the long bond, than there are of the 10-year bond… 
In the overnight markets last night… Someone went off the schedule, and started buying dollars… And the buying of dollars didn’t end, so we start today with the BBDXY up 4 index points, the euro falling through the 1.08 handle, quickly, and all the other currencies, sans pesos, taking it on the chin this morning… What gives with this sudden burst of dollar buying, when it had appeared that everyone was on the sidelines for the next couple of days? I couldn’t find rhyme or reason for the buying, and so… you know what that always leads me to believe, right? Oh, you don’t?  Ok… whenever we see these big runs in one session by the dollar, the PPT’s fingerprints are always left at the scene… So, there’s that to think about… 
The price of Gold is up $6 in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 38-cents. I read a short piece of Bloomberg.com this morning that said that in a poll of investors they have decided to hold onto Gold as the Fed’s rate hike cycle is almost over… Of course, if they had asked me, I would have said, I’m holding onto my Gold because it’s part of my net worth! And I’m not selling!  
The price of Oil has slipped below $80 again overnight, and trades this morning with a $78 handle…  Back and forth, back and forth… I have nothing else to say about this…  And the yield on the 10-year slipped to 4.28%, but that’s just a temporary adjustment in my opinion, and when I say temporary, I sure don’t mean the temporary that Richard Nixon used when he took Gold from the backing of the dollar…  This is a good story that would make a good movie, because his plan was to really be just temporary, and there were efforts to bring Gold back, but they were half-hearted attempts, and they failed of course, and 52 “temporary years” later… The damage has been done to our future… I’m just saying… 
Well, remember two weeks ago, when Fitch lowered the U.S. Credit Rating, and I told you that this was not the end of the downgrades? Yesterday, it was reported that S&P had downgraded several banks… Moodys had already done that previously… So, everyone’s balance sheet looks awful… What it going to take to get them to shore up the books? Well, in a roundabout way… The debt spending needs to stop, and a plan for reducing the debt needs to be brought on board… That way the issuance of Treasuries would slacken, and that would go a long way toward helping the banks that are forced to own the Treasury bonds… 
The thing that scares the bejeebers out of me is when we begin to see more bank fail… We could see the remaining banks do a Bail In…. We all know that our credit balances in the bank isn’t really our money, right? it’s a loan that we make to the bank and they pay us interest (well, some of them do)  So, what’s to stop them from going down the list of depositors and checking off all clients with more than the FDIC amount of $250,000 per SSN, and then just moving the amount of excess out of the account and into their reserves… And Voila’ the bank’s balance sheet problems are a thing of the past… 
Now, I don’t know any more than you do about if this is going to happen, if it’s even being discussed by bankers, or anything more… I’m just saying that this scenario is available to the banks, and they could very well institutionalize it…. 
Now, that’s scary, isn’t it?   Because, to me, this sets a very bad precdence, an if they get away with it on the Big Balance Accounts, what would stop them from going after any amount?   Ok, I’m going to stop now, because… 
This news was music to my ears… From Bloomberg.com “The former head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s precious-metals desk and his top trader today were sentenced to prison for spoofing, fraud, and attempted market manipulation.

Michael Nowak, who ran gold and silver trading at the bank, and trader Gregg Smith were sentenced in Chicago by U.S. District Judge Edmond Chang. Nowak received a term of one year and one day while Smith was given two years, the stiffest sentence yet in a recent government crackdown on questionable trading practices.”

Chuck again: Someone finally had the intestinal fortitude to send one of these thieves to jail… Maybe, just maybe, any traders still taking part in manipulating the markets this way, will stop, being in fear of jail time… 
I mentioned above about how the debt in this country is completely out of hand, and will be north of $44 Trillion in four short years…. So, if you think the Treasury is finding it difficult to place the Tsunami of bonds that’s being issued now, imagine in 4 years, we’ll have $12 Trillion more to have to finance… 
But, I’m questioning whether or not we actually get to 4 years out, before the whole shootin’ match collapses! Debt Cycles that turn into debt bubbles, like this one, have historically collapsed under the weight of the debt, causing runaway inflation, an implosion of assets…  All I know that is that this will happen… What I don’t know is when… That’s why I always ask the question: Got Gold?
And the jaded side of me is coming out again now, so if you don’t want to subject yourself to my shade of jade, then skip ahead… OK… everyone with me that wants to be here?  So, have you heard about this new variant of the COVID virus?   I believe the name of it is: Eris….  and it’s becoming widespread in the U.S.  and wouldn’t you know it the new updated virus shots will hit the streets next week!  And to top it all off TSA officials have admitted that they were told that everyone would be back to wearing surgical masks again by next year…  Do, you mean to tell me that the people of the U.S. will bow to these jackwads again and shut down?   I just don’t see us complying this time, do you? 
Ok, you can come back now, As the Good Witch Glinda said, “it’s safe to come out now”…  
The U.S. Data Cupboard is still lacking any real economic data today, but it show us the color of the latest New Housing for July… And the S&P flash PMI’s will print… These are just a flash report, they won’t move the markets any at all… 
To recap… Chuck’s fears of us going into a wait-n-see attitude in the markets played out yesterday, with no movement in the BBDXY or Oil, and Gold was up barely…But someone went off script last night and the dollar rallied…  Chuck really gets into some scary things this morning, he just have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed! And he showed his jaded sided once again… 
For What It’s Worth… I sure hope every reads this FWIW article today… This is from Ron Paul’s newsletter, that was posted by Lew Rockwell,  and it’s about the debt, and our future with both parties playing into the more debt picture… This article can be found here: Growing US Debt Menaces Liberty and Prosperity – LewRockwell    spoiler alert… this snippet is a long one… 
Or, here’s your snippet: “Congress’ top priority this fall will be passing legislation funding the government and avoiding a “shutdown.” As of this writing, it appears unlikely that the Republican-controlled House will be able to make a deal with President Biden and the Senate Democrats on a long-term spending bill. Instead, they will likely pass a short-term funding bill to give themselves more time to reach agreement on a longer-term bill.

Any bipartisan agreement is unlikely to reduce government spending or begin to pay down, or stop the growth of, the over $32 trillion national debt, which the Congressional Budget Office projects will grow by at least $115 trillion over the next thirty years. Instead, Congress and the administration will continue to pretend they are addressing the spending problem by “reducing in the projected rate of spending growth,” and other gimmicks.
The sad fact is both parties, along with a majority of the American people, are addicted to welfare-warfare spending. What little resistance there is to big government within the Republican party is likely to be further weakened by the rise of a new form of “conservatism” that advocates the use of government power—including deficit spending and increasing the federal debt — to advance conservative political and social goals.
The failure to take seriously the threat to the American economy caused by reckless federal spending is illustrated by the reactions to the credit rating agency Fitch’s downgrade of the US government’s credit rating. Instead of treating it as a wake-up call, government officials like current Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chair) Janet Yellen dismissed the downgrade as “arbitrary and based on outdated data.”

One reason Yellen and others may be so blasé about the federal debt is that they believe the Federal Reserve will bail the government out by holding interest rate low enough to keep the federal government’s interest payments to manageable levels This is why, even though the Fed has been raising interest rates, the rates remain well below what they would likely be in a free market. However, the Fed knows it cannot go back to keeping rates at or below zero without causing price inflation.”

Chuck again… I’ve always admired Ron Paul, and thought he got the stiffed by the powers that be, when he ran for President… No way, a person with his credentials could be our President! That would make too much sense!
Market Prices 8/ 23/2023: American Style: A$ .6417, kiwi .5930, C$ .7367, euro 1.0808, sterling 1.2620, Swiss $1.1348, European Style: rand 18.7098, krone 10.7098, SEK 11.0122, forint 354.61, zloty 4.1413, koruna 22.2171, RUB 94.26, yen 145.54, sing 1.3583, HKD 7.8403, INR 82.69, China 7.2908, peso 16.89, BRL 4.9319, BBDXY 1,243.27, Dollar Index 103.96, Oil $78.38, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $23.86, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $1,317.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $1,904.50
That’s it for today… The sun finally made an appearance yesterday, burning off the strange air that was in our atmosphere for 2 days… I told Kathy, that it could be the wild fire Canadian air causing the ugly days, they did tell us that they, (the wild fires)  would begin to mess with our air soon…  Well, it was a hot one, like 7 inches from the midday sun… And I love it!  I went out side to water my wife’s flowers, and my eyeglasses fogged all up… I had to take them off so I could see what I was doing!  Two days ago, it got to 102 and I sat outside to read, telling Kathy, that I was going out to see what 102 felft like… I’m just glad that I’m not 18 and building in-ground swimming pools in Oklahoma any longer!  The poor folks that HAVE to work out in the heat… They have it rough… for sure!  Well, The Searchers take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Love Potion Number 9….   This is another of my all-time fave songs!  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Are We Already In A Wait Mode?

August 22, 2023

* currencies & metals gain on Monday & overnight

* The BRICS meeting begins today… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Boy was I on the wrong side of the road yesterday, when I wrote that my beloved Cardinals had been swept by the Mets, when the Cardinals had averted a sweep with a win in the final game of the 4-game series… It sure felt as though they had been swept… I was correct about how the StL City team had won on Sunday, I was on top of that one because I watched it on TV!  And being a Cardinals fan, I’m well aware that the team used to go to Pittsburgh for batting practice, but that’s all in the past… They lost to the Pirates last night… UGH!  It was a strange atmosphere day here in my little river town… Strange day, indeed, so peculiar momma!  (John Lennon)  10CC greets me this morning with their song: The Things We Do For Love
Well, the day started yesterday with the dollar being bought, and gaining back all that was lost in the previous overnight session… But as the day went on, the dollar longs seemed to fade, and we finished the day with the BBDXY trading in the same clothes as it began the day at 1,239…   No data, no dollar movement… 
Gold found a way to gain $5 on the day, while Silver outshone its kissin cousin, gaining 54-cents and ending the day at $23.40, while Gold ended the day at $1,895.50…  The Big mover of the day was the 10-year’s yield, which gained on the day to close the day at 4.34%… I’ve told you over and over again, that this dance is gonna be a drag, no wait, no time for the Dave Clark 5 here… But what I have told you, is that the Tsunami of bonds getting issued is just too much to deal with right now, and there is little attraction to the yields being offered, so, bond dealers have to increase the yields to make them more attractive… Where it stops, no one knows… Only the supply and demand will dictate where the yield goes… But if I were backed into a corner for an answer, I would say that the yields have only just begun to rise… 
The price of Oil stumbled yesterday, and dropped $2 on the day to finish the day with an $80 handle… There seems to be a faction that is doing its best to keep the price of Oil from taking off to higher ground… And then there seems to be a faction that is bound and determained to keep the price rising… Back and forth we go… But for the most part Oil has range traded… 
In the overnight markets last night…  Well, there was some additional dollar selling overnight, with the BBDXY dropping 1 more index point. If this is a rebound of the dollar selling from early in the month, it sure is starting out slow and steady… I’m just saying…   Gold is up $6 to start the day today, climbing back above $1,900… And Silver is up 9-cents to start the day.   I think everyone is not making any major moves in the markets until they hear what Jerome Powell has to say at the Jackson Hole boondoggle on Friday… That’s a long time to wait, in markets’ time, that is… But in this case, with little to no data to look at this week, there’s nothing else on the docket, so we wait until Friday…  
The price of Oil held onto its $80 handle overnight… The 10-year’s yield is bouncing around, but remaining in an upward direction… 
I was watching tv yesterday waiting for the baseball game to start and a commercial came on telling people: call to see if you qualify for “Government Money “…. And I said to myself… the government doesn’t have money that they didn’t steal from citizens “. Instead the business should see if they qualify for tax payer money! 

Ok, news from down south, and I mean real down south, like in Brazil!  This from Blacklistednews.com “It’s official: the Brazilian Central Bank has announced the introduction of its CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). It’s called DREX, the acronym for Digital Real Electronic X (real is Brazil’s currency).

“DREX is coming to facilitate the life of Brazilians. With a new face, our Central Bank Digital Currency project – created and operated by the Brazilian Central Bank – has its own name. Previously called Real Digital, it will provide a safe and regulated environment for new businesses and more democratic access to the benefits of digitalizing the economy for citizens and entrepreneurs.”

All-in-all, it’s just another brick in the wall… 
I mentioned the Russian ruble yesterday, and how it had recovered from its near death early last week… I then read an article on Bloomberg.com that talked about how the Russian elite are arguing about the fate of the ruble… Well, right now, inflation in Russia is manageable but allow a cheap ruble to enter the trade, and the country will import inflation from other countries… So, in all their debating, I sure hope that they remember that… 
Things in China aren’t going so well, economy wise… The country is in a recession, and their Central Bank has been slow to react to it… Most observers, including me, thought that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) would be dipping into their treasure chest of reserves and stimulating the economy… And they may still do just that, it’s just that they haven’t so far, and gives everyone the chills that they won’t do it at all!  

While things here in the U.S. aren’t exactly whistling Dixie!  This from Rueters yesterday: “The U.S. government looks “more likely than not” to shut down later this year due to political differences on spending that could temporarily hit economic growth, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.

The Goldman economics analysts said prior shutdowns – which occur if Congress fails to pass annual spending bills – have stemmed either from disagreement on the level or distribution of spending, or a dispute over other issues that one party wants to address in spending legislation.

“At the moment, both types of risks are in play,” Goldman said in the note.”

Chuck again… I always find it interesting when Lola (Goldman) writes about something… Because we all know… That whatever Lola wants, Lola gets!  
There’s just so much to read about regarding the U.S. economy, etc. All I know is that the data tells me that the economy is NOT strong and vibrant as Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen says it to be… I think that Fed/ Cabal / Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, has done a fair job to trying to get the message across to the markets, but the markets just don’t want to listen to him… Powell’s speech this Friday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole boondoggle, will be his latest attempt to get his message of slow growth, higher interest rates for longer, and overall gloominess of the market across to the markets… You have to wonder when the markets will get the memo?   

Maybe this news will help them to come around to thinking correctly… “Mortgage rates jumped Monday, following a rise in bond yields driven by investors’ concerns that high interest rates and inflation will linger longer than expected.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.48%, the highest level since November 2000, according to Mortgage News Daily. It has risen 29 basis points in just the past week.”  
I’m forever thinking that eventually, the housing market has to be affected by these higher mortgage rates… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard remains barren today, with only one Fed speaker on the circuit… I doubt he’ll say anything that would ruffle the feathers of his boss, Jerome Powell… 
To recap… The dollar began the day and week yesterday getting bought, but that buying didn’t last too long, and as the day went on, all the early morning gains were gone, and the dollar ended up flat on the day… Gold gained $5, and Silver gained 54-cents on the day, while bonds continue to see their yields get marked higher… 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you about the BRICS meeting that would take place in August last month… It was thought, at that time, that the leaders of the BRICS would announce a euro-wannabe currency… There’s been some questions about that since, so tomorrow, the meeting begins, and this is a prepper for that and it can be found here: The Earthquake Starts Tomorrow – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “The BRICS Leaders’ Summit is scheduled to begin tomorrow, August 22 in South Africa, which will run through the 24th.

As I’ve been warning, this meeting is the most significant development in international finance in the last 50 years.
It has the potential to displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency from a standing start in just a few years.
This latest monetary change will be delivered by the BRICS, and the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock to the global financial system. Of course, BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Among the leaders attending the summit are President Xi Jinping of China, President Lula da Silva of Brazil and Prime Minister Modi of India. President Vladimir Putin of Russia cannot attend in person because there’s an outstanding warrant for his arrest on war crimes charges issued by the corrupt International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.
South Africa is a member of the ICC and might have been required to arrest Putin on arrival. The in-person delegate for Russia will be Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister.
Even at this late date, the official agenda is shrouded in mystery. That’s not unusual considering that the members themselves, especially Russia and China, are accustomed to decision-making behind closed doors.
It’s also not an unusual feature where top leaders are involved. Negotiations tend to go down to the wire; indeed, key decisions will not even be made until the leaders actually get together in one room.
The first big issue involves new membership. The BRICS may be a five-member group, but over 67 countries have been invited to attend. Among those 67 countries, more than 20 have expressed interest in joining the BRICS, and seven have formally applied for membership.”
Chuck again… this meeting is important folks, as these countries have felt that they have been forced to use dollars in trade for so long, that a festering of hate toward the U.S. has occurred… Now, we’ll find out just how much they hate the U.S. and what they are going to do about it… 
Market Prices 8/23/2023: American Style: A$ .6452, kiwi .5961, C$ .7397, euro 1.0887, sterling 1.2766. Swiss $1.1383, European Style: rand 18.7289, krone 10.5801, SEK 10.8942, forint 350.42, zloty 4.0967, koruna 22.0451, RUB 94.14, yen 145.77, sing 1.3550, HKD 7.8375, INR 82.93, China 7.2919, peso 16.92, BRL 4.9484, BBDXY 1,238.33, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $80.32, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $23.48, Platinum $938.00, Palladium $1,312.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $1,901.40
That’s it for today… I’m not sure that tomorrow’s Pfennig and the one Thursday, will be much different than today’s issue, given what I feel is a wait-n-see attitude in the markets, as we wait for Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday… Bad defense, which hasn’t been a problem for my beloved Cardinals since the Mike Matheny years… (he decided in spring training that the team didn’t need to work on fundamentals, UGH)  made the game more difficult than it should have been for the young pitcher starting his first game last night… I wanted to scream at the walls! But then I remembered that to error is human…   Sort like all the typos I had in the Pfennig yesterday… I put the blame for that on my fat fingers!  HA!  Looks like the atmosphere here is going to be strange again today… No sunshine… Bill Withers needs to be singing!   Eddie Money takes us to the finish line today with his song: Two  Tickets To Paradise…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Oh Boy! It’s A Jackson Hole Week! NOT!

* currencies & metals get bought in the overnight markets

* The Rich Men North Of Richmond… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What an awful weekend for my beloved Cardinals, who got swept at home by the Mets! UGH! This has really been a  year that will test the true Cardinals fan… We had been experiencing non-August-like weather here in the St. Louis area, until yesterday, when the temps reached 100 and real August weather returned…  I know some places in the U.S. have been really hot this summer, but not here, that is until this week… But I think I talked about this before, but when I was a young boy, I remember a week in August where the temps were over 100 every day for a week… Now… That’s real August heat! And why they call them the Dog Days of Summer… Yesterday, was my darling daugher Dawn’s Birthday… I remember when she was born, I walked out of the hospital in a haze, wondering what was I going to do with a girl? Well, according to her, I dressed her up as a boy, all the time! I doubt that I did that, but it doesn’t matter, because she grew up to be a beautiful young lady, that I was very proud of…  This summer it was 20 years that she has been married… Where did the time go?  Todd Rundgren greets me this morning with his great song: Hello, It’s me… 
Well, there was no data in the cupboard on Friday, so the currencies were on their own… That is they would have been on their own if not for the short paper traders…  Oh well, another day, another day of their interferences… The dollar gained 2 index points in the BBDXY on Friday, and ended the week at 1.241… There was not rhyme or reason that the dollar gained on Friday, but be that as it may, the currencies are not even close to the levels they were at the beginning of the month, when it looked as if the dollar was getting ready for ride on the slippery slope, long term… 
Gold, with all the interference in its trading that it could stand, found a way to carve out a 50-cent gain on Friday… It ended the week at $1,890.50… Gold has reached $1,907 during the day on Friday, until it was wiped out by short paper trades…  Silver saw the same interference and gained just 9=cents on Friday, to end the week at $22.86… Silver had reached $22.96 on Friday, before the interference came… 
The price of Oil gained $1 on Friday and ended the week trading with an $81 handle… Bonds actually saw some love on Friday, and the 10-year’s yield dropped from 4.28% to 4.25%…  In my eye, I see this as a temporary moment in the sell off of bonds… 
In the overnight markets last night…Well, we’ve seen this two overnight sessions in a row… And that is the dollar getting sold… It’s not a major selloff, just normal selling that took 2 index points away from the BBDXY Index. The euro has climbed back above 1.09 this morning… And just a week ago, I was giving the ruble its eulogy, only to see the body bounce!  There’s little on the data cupboard this week, until we get to the Opening remarks of the Jackson Hole boondoggle… So, we’ll just trade on fundamentals, eh?  AS IF!   We’ve not traded the currencies on fundamentals in a quite a few years no, I would think that there are a good number fo young traders that have never traded on fundamentals… Even the technical gurus have taken a back set to Trader Sentiment that drives this bus now… 
To start the day and the week, Gold is flat as a pancake (Head East), and Silver is up 4-cents… Let’s see where Trader Sentiment takes these two today and this week, eh ? 
The price of Oil has bumped higher by another buck overnight, and trades this morning with an $82, handle.. That brief dip below $80 last week, sure didn’t last long, now, did it?   That’s because demand is high, it is the summer driving season, and supplies are dwindling… So, any attempt to bring the price of Oil back will be met with strong resistance, at least that’s how I see it from my view in the cheap seats… 
Bonds have become a BIG story these days, and the story is all about the Tsunami of bonds that have been issued to finance our every rising debt, and have been met with tepid response… That means the yields need to go higher to attract investors… And higher they’ve gone… The 10-year trades with a 4.29% yield this morning… In the not to distant past, this bond’s yield was down to .5625%… That’s nearly 400 Basis Points of loss for those that bought the bond at that yield, and there were many banks, and institutions that “had to buy at that level”  I feel sorry for them… but not for too long! 
Well, this week will bring us news from the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Fed Boondoggle… This is an annual event, and in the past has brought us news of more Quantitative Easing, and additional rate cuts, and other things that if the markets were left alone to set rates, would mean nothing!   Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will be the featured speaker at the boondoggle, and the markets will be on the edges of their collective seats, listening to every word he mutters… It’s all a  S*&^ show in my mind…   and I’m not afraid to say that either!
So, look for some wild swings in the markets sentiment this week, as different speakers will say things that move markets one way or the other… 
I know you don’t read this letter to listen to me rant and rant about this and that… But I heard this song last week, and thought, I’m no fan of country music, but this guy: Oliver Anthony really nailed the lyrics! here’s a brief snippet of his lyrics to the song: The Rich Men North of Richmond…
“Livin’ in the new world

With an old soul
These rich men north of Richmond
Lord knows they all just wanna have total control
Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do
And they don’t think you know, but I know that you do
‘Cause your dollar ain’t shit and it’s taxed to no end

‘Cause of rich men north of Richmond”

And in a case of: What? They didn’t ask you, either?  Reuters reported that; “The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands as soon as pilot training is completed” Just another item of debt that we amassed that will go down in flames, trust me on that one… We just keep shoving money down the drain… 
And then we have the U.S. consumers spending their savings… When is this all going to come to a crash? This from Bloomberg.com: “Over the past two years, consumers have drawn down the more than $2 trillion in extra savings they accumulated during the pandemic in order to keep spending in the face of sky-high inflation.”
Chuck again… The report goes on to say that consumers’ savings are dwindling…  Uh-oh! 
in a head count of those Central Banks that are still hiking rates, is starting to show some wear and tear… The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England all seem to be on board for more rate hikes, while the Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand have backed away from the rate hike window, for now that is, The Bank of Canada is so wishy washy, you never know what will come from that bunch of knuckleheads… The Russian Central Bank probably made a one and done 350 Basis Points rate hike last week, and the Bank of Brazil is still hiking rates at last check… The world is waiting for the Bank of Japan to get off their rear ends and do something, like get their interest rate structure out of negative territory… The world has been waiting for over 20 years now… And they’ll have to keep waiting in my opinion… The BOJ has a long history of disappointing the markets… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty until we get to Thursday this week… There’s some housing data that won’t have any surprises in them to print today and tomorrow… On our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday this week, the Jackson Hole boondoggle will kick off, with Jerome Powell’s speach coming on Friday this week… 
Well, this was the news headline on MarketWatch last Thursday: Leading index for U.S. economy falls for the 16th month in a row — but still no recession. Leading economic indicator declines 0.4% in July… But did that shake the confidence of the short paper traders, who still continued to take their pound of flesh from Gold…
To recap… The dollar ended the week getting bought, but then got sold in the overnight markets last night… That marks two consecutive night sesssions where the dollar got sold… The U.S. builds it up, the overseas markets knock it down… The Big Event this week is the Jackson Hole Boondoggle… Chuck doesn’t think much of this boondoggle, but that doesn’t mean the markets won’t be sitting on the edges of their collective seats hanging on each and every word from Jerome Powell… UGH! 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve been waiting patiently, yeah right, ask anyone that knows me , and they’ll tell you I’m not a patient person!   Ok, I’ve been waiting for this decision for some time… I’m talking about the decision to put the price manipulators in jail or not… This article can be found here; JPMorgan Spoofer Sentencings Delayed as Judge Reviews Mitigation (yahoo.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “A federal judge delayed until next week the sentencing of two former JPMorgan Chase & Co. gold traders convicted last year of spoofing, fraud and attempted market manipulation, so he can review issues raised by defense lawyers hoping to keep their clients out of prison

Prosecutors had sought a sentence of five years behind bars for Michael Nowak, who ran JPMorgan’s precious-metals trading desk, and six years for Gregg Smith, the bank’s top gold trader.
But during a nearly three-hour hearing Thursday in Chicago federal court, attorneys argued over how to measure, in dollars, the harm to victims of deceptive trading by Nowak and Smith.
US District Judge Edmond Chang, who presided at their trial in August 2022, said he needed at least until next week to review the arguments and the law.
New sentencing dates weren’t set, but the judge said the soonest would be next Wednesday.

The JPMorgan case was part of a crackdown by federal prosecutors on illegal spoofing, where traders place bogus orders to move prices up or down and then quickly cancel them before they can be executed. Smith and Nowak used the technique to manipulate gold and silver prices from 2008 to 2016.”

Chuck Again… Ok, really jaded Chuck speaking now… Yeah the judge probably needed a week to entertain all the payoffs he might received if he doesn’t rule that these guys have to go to jail…  I’m just saying… 
Market prices 8/21/2023: American Style; A$ 6410, kiwi .5920, C$ .7396, euro 1.0906, sterling 1.2757, Swiss $1.1366, European Style: rand 18.9935, krone 10.5770, SEK 10.9278, forint 350.10, zloty 4.1075, koruna 22.0221, RUB 94.88, yen 145.87, sing 1.3567, HKD 7.8389, INR 83.11, China 7.2951, peso 17.04, BRL 4.9678, BBDXY 1,239.60, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $82.19, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $22.90, Platinum $906.00, Palladium $1,256.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,889.30
That’s it for today… This will be a long, slow, hot week for yours truly… Well, my beloved Cardinals finally bit the bullet and brough up thier #1 prospect this past weekend… He hasn’t lit up the scoreboard with his bat yet, but he started out slow at AAA too, so give him some time… There’s a song that goes: You’ve got to take some time to let love grow….   To; Kevin, Duane, Rick, Mike & Mike, Denny, no cheating with Google, I’ll buy a beer for whoever can tell me who sang that song?   Our StL City team played last night and played well after a 3-week hiatus and won the game 6-3… I had to sell my tickets to the game, as I’m still not ready for prime time…  Besides the game didn’t start until 8:45 last night, and it was a “school Night”!  Los Bravos take us to the finish line today with their 60’s song: Black Is Black… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Selling Of Bonds Continues…

August 17, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday

* But rally in the overnight session… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! While I AM a bit better this week, I’m going to have to beg off celebrating a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, as I’m stil not ready for prime time!  But having said that… why wallow in the mud, and complain? I’ll just take my lumps and move on, as that’s what I’ve done for over 16 years now…  Speaking of the last 16 years, I had my 50th scan yesterday… This time without the contrasting dye, that caused my anaphylaxis shock last December… So, it was in-and-out in a NY minute yesterday morning… So I had that going for me, eh? MY beloved Cardinals couldn’t seal the deal of a sweep last night, and lost to the A’s, but winning 2 of 3, and now the pond scum come to St. Louis… I kind when I say that, as in the 80’s the Cardinals and Mets were in the same division and had a heated rivalry… So, I’m not being mean with that statement, it’s just a throwback to the 80’s…  Jackson  Browne greets me this morning with his song; Doctor My Eyes… 
The Fed Heads threw a Cat among the pigeons yesterday, when their meeting minutes printed, and stated that the Fed Hea saw significant inflation risk, that merits more hikes… Boy did that light up the day for dollar traders, who then went about marking up dollars, and seeing them bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair… The BBDXY gained 5 index point on the day, and the euro lost another cent, and now trades with a 1.08 handle… Yes, it wasn’t that long ago that the BBDXY was trading at 1,220, and the ruo was at 1.10 heading higher… And then it wasn’t…  
Gold took one to the chin yesterday, and got knocked out! Gold lost $10 on the day to close below $1,900, closing at $1,892… Silver lost 14-cents, so the damage there was not as strong… I love it when Ed Steers calls the short paper trading as “slicing the salami”… They take a little off the roll of salami… a little bit at a time, but they keep coming back and taking more… i already sent all those responsible for the slicing of the salami, to the woodshed earlier this week, so apparently, they didn’t learn anything from their trip there!  
The price of Oil has slipped again by $2 yesterday, and ended the day ttrading with a $79 handle… Inventories are low, but when the powers that be want to take down an asset, there’s no stopping them … And Bonds just keep getting sold folks… The 10-year’s yield ended yesterday at 4.28%… Like i said yesterday, you can’t say I didn’t warn you about this selloff, just based on all the new bonds coming to the market, and no one to buy them… 
In the overnight markets last night… some saneness has returned to traders as they sold dollars overnight. The BBDXY starts today down 3 index points from yesterday’s close.. The euro remains below $1,900, but just barely… The surprise currency rally this week has been the Russian ruble. After hiking rates 350 Basis Points earlier this week, the ruble has responded in a good way, and trades this morning with a 93 handle, after going over 100 late last week… Gold is up $7 in the early trading today, and Silver has added 38-cents… The question for the day is whether the salami slicers decide to take Gold’s gains and slice them up, or will they sit on the sidelines today, and watch Gold gain some ground?   Make your bets…  All ready? Then roll the dice!  
The price of Oil has steadied with an $80 handle this morning… And there was no movement in bonds overnight, so the 10-year is still trading with a 4.28% yield this morning… Where is the yield on the 10-year going to stop rising? I have a thought on that, that I’ll share with you next week… See, if I learned one thing in the show business it is to “leave the crowd wanting”…   HA!   
Well, some of you longtime readers will recall me making a big deal out of the start up of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, because they would not allow short paper trades… I thought, that this would allow Gold to reach its true price level without interference… But that didn’t happen… I often wonder why, but it is what it is… 

But now we have a situation where the Gold spot price in China is $40 higher than it is in London… Here’s Bloomberg.com with the report: “China’s gold price is rising against levels in London, a trend that local traders say is due to government curbs on imports of the precious metal.

The Shanghai spot price was more than $40 an ounce higher than that in London on Aug. 14, according to Bloomberg calculations based on exchange data. That’s the biggest premium in more than five months, with the gap steadily widening from late June even as consumer demand in China remained sluggish.

Authorities moving to limit gold imports appears to be a major driver behind the growing gap, according to traders and importers.”

 
Chuck again… I doubt this is the breakout that I expected years ago in China, but more of a short-term phenomenon… 
 
News from down under the other day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left their Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Tuesday… They want to see the effects of their climb in interest rates have had on the economy, before undertaking any additional moves… Kiwi didn’t move on the news, which is a good sign…  As the recent downward move in kiwi had come from traders who speculated that the RBNZ would pivot at this meeting…  The question now, is whether these same traders double down, or leave with their collective tails between their legs?  
 
I can’t save this for the Data Cupboard roundup… The NY Empire Manufacturing Index printed for this month yesterday, and it came in at -19… That’s a negative 19! For those of you new to class… The Empire Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, and below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state… So, if any number below 0 is bad, then negative 19 is real bad!  I would think that this regional report will lead the rest of the regionals down the same path… I’m just saying… 
 
But the dollar shrugged off the Empire data, and went with the Fed’s Meeting Minutes, comment about the need for additional rate hikes… That’s just crazy folks… yes interest rates may be going higher, but from the raging economy? No, more like raging inflation… no matter what the stupid CPI says… We all know in our heart of hearts that inflation is running higher than what the stupid CPI says… 
 
Shadowstats.com has inflation running at 12% when compared to 1980’s formulas that were done before all the hedonic adjustments that are allowed now in computing inflation… So… do the math folks… we still have negative interest rates in the U.S. And… Treasuries are also paying negative yields…  So, put that in your pipe and smoke it Janet Yellen!  And dollar traders that keep buying the lie that the U.S. economy is strong and vibrant… 
 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the July Retail Sales, and they, like the BHI indicated were strong… Thus showing that the U.S. consumer still has room on their credit cards to keep spending… I pulled this from CNBC.com: “July’s numbers were boosted by a 1.9% jump in spending at online retailers, while sporting goods and related stores increased 1.5% and food service and drinking places rose 1.4%.

On the downside, furniture sales slumped 1.8% and electronics and appliance stores reported a 1.3% drop.”

 
Chuck again… Well, here we go again… with traders taking the viewpoint that this report proves that the U.S. consumer will be able to withstand a recession… I say, balderdash!  We’ll just see how far all these conumers with less than $5,300 in savings comes out… I think it will be in tears… but we’ll just have to wait-n-see, eh? 
 
To recap… The dollar got bought hand over fist yesterday, after the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting where they hiked rates 25 Basis Points, said that they are seeing “significant inflation signs” and my merit more rate hikes… That got the dollar bugs are fired up… of course Chuck tells us that they really don’t have anything to be lathered up about, but don’t tell them when they’re on a roll that is over… It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor was it?   (ok that’s from Animal House , and its a shame that I have to explain that for in the past, I’ve had people write me and tell me how wrong I was that it was the Japanese that bombed Pearl Harbor!
 
For What It’s Worth… I’ve been to the cinema to watch 1 movie in the last 10 years, and that movie was: The Big Short… I loved the movie because it was about Michael Burry that shorted the housing market, and made out like a bandit when the housing market collapsed. I loved it because I was on top of that whole collapse, having warned of a Housing Bubble in 2003, 4 years before it collapsed. So, this article is about how Michael Burry is now shorting the stock market…  Warning signals are going off all over the world, on this news, so take it with as many grains of salt that you wish…  And it can be found here; Infamous “Big Short” Burry – Places $1.6b Bet US Market about to Tank | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “ Chances are, we’re all familiar with “The Big Short,” whether through the film or the book.

Similarly, most of us are likely familiar with Michael Burry, the finance genius who made a bold move by betting against the US housing market by persuading investment banks to provide him with credit default swaps linked to risky subprime mortgages.
Now, he’s back in the spotlight, this time targeting the US equity market.
According to recent documents filed with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), Burry has actively taken on put options involving two ETFs that mirror the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The combined value of these options adds up to an impressive $1.6 billion.
The question of whether Burry’s actions are a “BIG SHORT” or a “BIG HEDGE” is up for interpretation. However, the central theme remains the same: he’s placing a bet against the current state of the market.
Burry is known as a value investor, someone who excels at spotting overpriced stocks and sectors and then making short trades to capitalize on their decline.
Interestingly, Burry’s talent for short-selling actually precedes his well-known bet against the subprime market in the US.
As author Michael Lewis recounts in “The Big Short”:
“Back in 2001, while the S&P 500 dropped by 11.88%, Scion, under Burry’s guidance, surged by 55%. The following year, as the S&P 500 fell again, this time by 22.1%, Scion once more outperformed with a 16% increase. In 2003, despite the stock market’s recovery with a 28.69% rise, Burry still managed a remarkable 50% return. By the end of 2004, his assets under management had reached a hefty $600 million, and he was even forced to turn down additional investments.”
Then came his most impressive achievement – Burry’s calculated bet against the US housing market resulted in a personal profit of around $100 million and hefty returns of $700 million for his investors.
However, perfection wasn’t always on his side. While the exact timing of his short positions being exercised remains uncertain, he boldly announced in 2022 that he had taken substantial short positions in anticipation of an impending drop in earnings. As history has shown, that thesis has not quite panned out yet.
As disclosed in a 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Burry acquired put options worth $890 million for SPDR S&P 500 ETF and $740 million for INVESCO QQQ ETF.
Twitter reacted with amazement, labeling this move a $1.6 billion short.
Irrespective of the specifics, Burry’s evident concern about the market is palpable, and his actions echo that sentiment. If his foresight proves accurate once again, we might find ourselves witnessing another debilitating economic crisis.”
Chuck again… While I’m no stock jockey, don’t play one on TV, or stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, I think it would behoove all to at least make sure your “stop losses” are up to date…  And that’s all I can say about stocks, otherwise, the gestapo will take me away in a paddy wagon… 
Market Prices 8/16, 2023: American Style: A$.6433, kiwi .5953, C$ .7405, euro 1.0895, sterling 1.2763, Swiss $1.1397, European Style: rand 19.0439, krone 10.5337, SEK 10.8969, forint 353.40, zloty 4.1053, koruna 22.0988, RUB 93.06, yen 145.83, sing 1.3579, HKD 7.8273, INR 83.15, China 7.2832, peso 17.07, BRL 4.9676, BBDXY 1,239.15, Dollar Index 103.25, Oil $80.10, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $22.82, Platinum $912.00, Palladium $1,237.00, Copper $3.72, and Gold… $1,899.97
That’s it for today, and this week of course!  My scan results didn’t show any new cancer, only the lesion that remains in my jaw… And that my sinuses are inflamed!  Well, the old man, Adam Wainwright take the hill tonight against the Mets… Maybe he can get out of the 1st inning tonight, without putting his team back a half dozen runs! I get it, he’s a longtime Cardinal and has been the ACE of staff for years… But father time caught up with him… I’ve been really tired lately, and needing to take an afternoon nap… Fatigue is an effect of chemo… And i’ve fought it for 16 years now…   The NFL pre-season games are under way, and fantasy leagues are drafting their teams. i used to play fantasy football, but then I went through that stage where I didn’t watch the NFL, they ticked me off and I turned them off… But now, I watch what games I think are worth watching… But still don’t want to play fantasty football!  Mark Knopfler and his band Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with his song: Sultans of Swing… Some real good guitar work in this song by Mark…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and won’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

More Credit Rating Cuts In The Cards?

August 15, 2023

* Gold & Silver get their daily beating… 

* Russian Central Banks hikes rates 350 Basis Points! 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals played to the level of their competition last night having to come from behind to beat the A’s… A win is a win, right?  Never mind the blown save, and the need to come from behind… UGH!  I’ve been having major problems with the new chemo, and now my oncologist has taken me off of it, while she tweaks the dosage… I have to go have blood drawn this aftenoon, so I need to drink plenty of water this morning!  And don’t forget, no Pfennig tomorrow, as I will be getting scanned…   Alice in Chains greets me this morning with their unplugged song: Down In A Hole… 
Well, the buying of the dollar in the overnight markets (Sunday to Monday) ended yesterday, in the U.S. session, there was no more dollar buying, nor was there any dollar selling, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,237… The short paper traders just won’t let go of thier choke hold on Gold & Silver… Hulk Hogan would be proud…  Or for the old timers out there like me, Gene O’Connel would be proud…   Ahhh, Saturday nights, and “Wrestling At The Chase” aired in the St. Louis region… That was a very long time ago!  
Gold, as I just mentioned was subjected to the short paper trades once again, and lost another $6.30 yesterday, while Silver lost 7-cents… Gold closed at $1,907.80, and Silver closed at $22.69…  The price of Oil lost another buck during the day yesterday, and ended the day trading with an $81 handle… Bonds are seeing mucho selling these days, with all the issuance of new bonds coming down the pike, the 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.20% to end yesterday… 
The price manipulators, or short paper traders have become so brazen with their attacks on the metals… Take yesterday for example… Gold was down early in the day, but rallied back by noon, an was even on the day, and that’s when the boys in the band showed up at the COMEX with arms full of short paper traders… They don’t even need an excuse to bring the metals down an longer, they just go our and get it done! 
Yesterday, I talked about how the Russian ruble had dropped like a rock off a cliff, and had gone past 100 in price VS the dollar… Well, the prompting by the Foreign Ministry guy who called out “loose monetary policy” on the Russian Central Bank, may have hit a nerve, because the Russian Central Bank called an “emergency meeting” yesterday, where they hiked rate 350 Basis Points to 12%! The Central Bank pointed to how the weak ruble was allowing inflaiton to rise in the Russian, and therefore they needed to hike rates… Inflation is running about 7% in Russia, so their positive interest rate is 5%… And the ruble responded appropriately… 
In the overnight markets last night…  There was little to no movement in the dollar overnight… The BBDXY is still trading in the same clothes as yesterday at 1,237…. Gold is getting sold again this morning, and is down $5 as I write, with Silver down 29-cents… More of the same-o, same-o, for the metals… When is this going to stop? I know, I know the dog days of summer are never kind to metals, but this is preposterous!  
The price of Oil remains in the $81 handle, after reaching $86 briefly last week, Oil has slid downward, but still, to me looks like it will want to move to $90… I’m just saying…   And the 10-year’s yield, has risen some more overnight to trade at 4.22% this morning… It’s not like I didn’t warn you about this rise in yields… The debt issuance has been unreal, causing yields to rise to attact buyers for all the issuances… 
Well, did you hear about the latest U.S. Bank to fail? Probably not, because, the media has a hush-hush on bad news in the economy… OK, I made that up, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the media did have a hush-hush on bad news in the economy!  Seriously though, the latest bank of fail was the Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas… Remember when I told you that the end of the banking crisis was not nearly at an end?  This bank wasn’t on the list of Big Banks, but still it’s another one bites the dust… And the economy is moving along just fine, eh, Janet?  As if!
I really went all postal on the short traders and their scheme yesterday, eh? Well, they deserve it, every inch of it! And probably more!  I saw a line from a writer that quoted a hedge fund guy, who told him that the HUGE breakout for Gold & Silver is coming… Well… count me in on those that are waiting! 
Well, the folks, Russ & Pam Martens at www.wallstreetonparade.com had this to say yesterday, and I like the sound of it, here it is: “In the Federal Reserve’s most recent “Supervision and Regulation Report” on the big bank holding companies it “supervises,” the Fed continued its attempts to perpetuate the narrative that “The banking industry came into 2020 in a healthy financial position” and has simply unraveled as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. That narrative is built on the same flimsy house of cards that the New York Times and Andrew Ross-Sorkin built the narrative that the mega banks on Wall Street were not responsible for the 2008 financial collapse.

The Fed is desperate to promote this narrative to stop a new Congress next year from holding hearings on why the Fed, for the second time in 12 years, had to engage in trillions of dollars in Wall Street bank bailouts after reassuring Congress for years that the financial system was fine as the Fed loosened or rolled back reforms like the Volcker Rule. The Fed needs this narrative to prevail in order to cover up its own negligent supervision of the behemoth banks.

Depending on the composition of Congress next year, those hearings might bring about not only a restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act (which bans trading houses on Wall Street from combining with federally-insured, deposit-taking banks) but might also put an end to the Fed’s ability to negligently supervise the big banks with one hand, while bailing them out with the other hand, using money it creates out of thin air. (The Fed will report its latest balance sheet tally today at 4:30. It is expected to be close to $7 trillion from the $6.7 trillion it reported last week – which is $2.8 trillion more than it was exactly one year ago. The growth in the Fed’s balance sheet has come as a result of efforts to prop up Wall Street banks.)”

Chuck Again… wouldn’t that be nice if we could wake up, in the morning when the day is new, and find that Glass-Stegal has been reinstated, we could then party the whole day through! 
The Fed Heads have used that excuse of the Plandemic causing them problems for far too long… If you recall, in September of 2019, I was writing about all the repos the Fed Heads were doing for the Big Banks,  and pointed out that this can’t be a good thing going forward… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard has the July Retail Sales for us to see this morning… The BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates to me that July deliveries to our house were plenty, so that’s a good sign for Retail Sales, but then in July, we had the beginning of “Back To School” buying… And the lastest Consumer Credit (read debt) told us that credit card purchases were a plenty in July… So, it all comes together, eh? 
To recap… the dollar buying in the overnight session ended in the U.S. session yesterday, no dollar buying was done, and by the same token, no dollar selling went on either!   Gold & Silver got sold once again, by the short paper traders, And we have a big session in Congress coming up… 
For What It’s Worth… I mentioned Fitch and its credit rating downgrade and then I was just minding my own business and this article popped up about Fitch… And it’s about further rate cuts that could be coming from the ratings Agency and it can be found here; Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks (cnbc.com)
Or, here’s your snippet:”A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase

.
The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.
But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.
“If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.
The credit rating firms relied upon by bond investors have roiled markets lately with their actions. Last week, Moody’s downgraded 10 small and midsized banks and warned that cuts could come for another 17 lenders, including larger institutions like Truist
 and U.S. Bank

. Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating because of political dysfunction and growing debt loads, a move that was derided by business leaders including JPMorgan CEO

Chuck again…. Well, you can certainly expect to hear more whining and crying from Janet Yellen about these credit rate cuts, because in her mind, one that looks through rose colored glasses, the U.S. economy, and banking system is just fine, and that these cuts are unwarranted… I think you all know what I think of Janet Yellen’s viewpoint, eh? 
Market Prices 8/15/2023: American Style: A$ .6474, kiwi .5971, C$ .7411, euro 1.0935. sterling 1.2707, Swiss $1.1402, European Style: rand 19.2033, krone 10.4789, SEK 10.8372, forint 354.48, zloty 4.1042, koruna 22.0647, RUB 98.77, yen 145.48, sing 1.3569, HKD 7.8257, INR 82.94, China 7.2865, peso 17.11, BRL 4.9635, BBDXY 1,237.92, Dollar Index 103.29, Oil $81.70, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $22.41, Platinum $893.00, Palladium $1,243.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,902.55
That’s it for today… well, this day August 15th will always be burned on my brain, for that was the day each year when we began summer football practice… Some years, we did 3-a-days and some 2-a-days… It was grueling, hot, and I loved every minute of it!  I’ve been stuck at home this week, as I’m afraid to go out in public with my stomach problems right now… UGH! Well, it’s not like you go many places anyway, Chuck! Ok, so I’m complaining, can you let me get away with that for once?  Ok, I’ve got a treat for my song to send us off today… The great Stan Getz, plays his 1964 hit of year, The Girl From Impanema… The girl that sang that song, died the other day… She was the wife of one of the musicians and was not a trained singer… There, a little trivia for you! I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!!
Chuck Butler