Author: admin

• currencies & metals rally again on Tuesday
• Poor, poor, pitiful, Powell…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, give them the chance and my beloved Cardinals will play down to their competition… They lost last night to the Rockies… Yes, I said the Rockies, a team that has only won 26 games so far this season, of which one of their wins is against the Cardinals! UGH! I had to deal with my streaming company all night last night, but finally go it straightened out! UGH! King Crimson greets me this morning with their classic rock song: In The Court of the Crimson King…  I love this song!

Well, the dollar continued to get sold yesterday with the BBDXY posting a 4-index point loss and close in the U.S. at 1,196… The euro moved higher in the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies gained some ground on the dollar…  Yesterday I went through a couple of the laundry list of items that are weighing down the dollar, but most of all is this question that should be on the minds of everyone… “The Current Debt is $37 Trillion, and will keep going higher… How will we finance that debt when all the participants at the auction window don’t show up? 

I wouldn’t be surprised if an emergency bil went through congress that requires all investments in 401k’s be in Treasuries…   Now that’s just something that I dreamed up, it’s not on the docket, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see there one day in the future… 

Well, didn’t I say yesterday that the negatives in Gold & Silver would probably turn around and be positive figures?  And guess what Gold & Silver did yesterday? They turned those negative figures in price to positive ones, just like I thought they would!  Gold gained $35 to close at $3,432, and Silver gained 36-cents to close at $39.35… That’s back to a 14-year high for Silver, and quite frankly if the short paper traders hadn’t genuflected on the news of a 14-year high last week, we would be well into the $40 handle this week… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw some buying, from those up-in-the-sky folks that are still leaving a light on for a rate cut next week… The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day at 4.36%… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar slipped another index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,196…  I’ve been surprised by the overnight markets not picking up the ball and running with it the last two sessions, as the dollar has gotten sold in the U.S. and Gold & Silver have rallied, but then the foreigners don’t seem to want to participate… Hmmm… Oh well, que sera, sera, eh?  

The price of Gold has slipped a mere $3 to start our day today, and Silver is up 9-cents…  These too are figures that could easily be turned around, so watch for that to take place today… Because there will be more Fed Heads speaking and talking about the need for a rate cut… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight, and trades this morning in a $64 handle… And the 10-year Treasury didn’t move overnight, so it starts today with a 4.36% yield.  I read this morning that Russia had increased their physical Gold shipments to China by 80% or $1 Billion worth… These two are getting really chummy, chummy, don’t you think? I do… and I don’t like it one iota!  That scares the bejeebers out of me for sure!

Well, poor, poor, pitiful Powell.. Everyone’s ganging up on him these days… Even his own brothers in arms (Dire Staits) at the Eccles Bldg. Are starting to voice their preference to cut rates…  if I were Powell, I would say, “OK, go ahead and cut rates while inflation is still above our target and money supply is growing by leaps and bounds, and I will say, neener, neener, I told you not to cut yet!”

I know that I’ve explained market trends to you before, so I won’t get into that too much now, only to remind you that the dollar has seen a weak, then strong, then weak, then strong, trends in the past, and I believe we have just seen the ending of the strong trend for the dollar that has been in place since the debts of the Club Med were exposed, and the Eurozone as whole had to deal with it, causing the main offset to the dollar to get sold, and thus began the strong dollar trend that went further than any previous trend, and only because the U.S. seemed to have weathered the storm of 2007, and then COVID…  But those things are in our rear-view mirror now, and that’s why I believe it’s time for a long-term weak dollar trend to begin… 

It all started when the U.S. weaponized the dollar a few years ago now, and froze the Russian assets and deposits…  Every country in the world had a coming to Jesus realization that if that could happen to Russia, the U.S. wouldn’t think twice about doing it to us… And that triggered the mass buying of physical Gold and selling of dollars by Central banks around the world.  

Yes it’s taken the dollar bugs a while now to come around to thinking that maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know (Andujar)  But now, the writing is on the wall for the dollar bugs, and they had better know how to read!

We, as Americans need to own some dollars… but it has long been my mantra to say that we need dollars, for gas, groceries and giggles, and that’s it! 

And on a sidebar here… Did you know that market trends go as far back as 2,000 BC? I was told that by a sage trader many years ago… So long ago that the Dead Sea wasn’t even sick yet! 

In Japan, the revolving door PM policy is set to see another new PM next month.. Mr. Ishibi Japan’s current PM saw his majority in the house get beaten and a new majority that sure doesn’t see things Ishibi’s way, has now taken over, and from the looks and sounds of it, the current PM’s place isn’t long for this Gov’t…  I’ve told you time and time and again through the years that Japan is a basket case… And will continue to be one for years to come…  That’s why I wouldn’t touch Japanese yen with YOUR 10-foot pole! 

The U.S Data Cupboard has the Existing Home Sales that I erroneously thought was going to print yesterday… Instead, the Cupboard was bare yesterday, and has a non-market moving print today… 

To recap… I would suspect after two HUGE move by Gold & Silver the last two trading sessions, that we could begin to see some profit taking… From those that still think that Gold & Silver are commodities that are there to trade like stocks… UGH! The dollar is still getting sold

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article while perusing Google, and thought it could very well by FWIW worthy… This is an article about things to look for from the FOMC at next week’s meeting… and it can be found here: “3 Things To Watch For In The Fed’s July Interest Rate Decision

Or, here’s your snippet:”The Federal Open Market Committee will set short-term interest rates next Wednesday, July 30.

The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the year so far, and markets do not expect an interest rate cut in July. However, a rate cut may be reasonably likely at the conclusion of the next meeting on Sept. 17. That’s according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures the expectations of fixed income markets.

Three topics are likely to be the focus of markets at the meeting.

The first is any response from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the repeated pressure and criticism that President Trump and his administration has directed at Powell. In prior meetings Powell has been terse in his responses to questions on the topic, pointing out that he can’t legally be removed as Fed chair without cause but refusing to be publicly drawn on Trump’s comments.

The other things to watch for will be hints of a September cut and whether there is any dissent within the open market committee on the policy decision.

for now, markets view a September interest rate cut as more likely than not. The FOMC generally doesn’t try to surprise markets, so if a September cut is coming there may be clues either in the July statement or the accompanying news conference.

June’s Consumer Price Index inflation report did show some potential signs of tariff-related inflation in certain categories, which could concern the FOMC. Nonetheless, since February inflation has generally eased and the job market has held up well for 2025 on the most recent reports. FOMC officials have expressed the view that tariffs might raise prices and slow growth, but they are awaiting data. That issue may be resolved one way or the other in the coming months. So far, the FOMC’s position has essentially been to wait and see, especially as the jobs market has held up well on recent reports.”

Chuck again…  As usual, this article is much longer, so if you can carve out some extra time to read it in its entirety, then click the link above and go for it! 

Market Prices 7/23/2025: American Style: A$.6600, kiwi .6046, C$ .7365, euro 1.1729, sterling 1.3543, Swiss $1.2602, European Style: rand 17.5418, krone 10.0870, SEK 9.5102, forint 340.22, zloty 3.6287, koruna 21.6851, RUB 78.54, yen 147.21, sing 1.2766, HKD 7.8500, INR 86.47, China 7.1604, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5652, BBDXY 1,196, Dollar Index 97.42, Oil $ 64.89, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $39.44, Platinum $1,448.00, Palladium $1,258.00, Copper $5.82, and Gold… $3,429

That’s it for today… Tomorrow, I’m meeting my classmates for lunch… This is a small group of people that were very good friends back in the day…  One of my friends I’ve known since kindergarten… 1960… There’s nothing on the docket for this weekend, so I’ll be chillin and grillin… And trying not to use as much electricity as I usually do! I leave for my winter home, in the summer on Sunday… I love it down in the South, and see myself living there more than just the 3 months of winter, and various short trips in the future… The pain I told you I woke up with on Monday, has finally started to abate… YAHOO!  My all-time favorite Dooby Bros song takes us to the finish line today playing : South City Midnight Lady…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, reduce your electricity usage, and Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• trade tensions weigh on the dollar…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were thrown a life saver yesterday, as they played the Rockies, the worst record team in baseball… The team needs to sweep this team they’re playing, and come back home… where they DO play better baseball… It was a decent day here yesterday, and we went to dinner with our good friends, Toni and Duane… I was supposed to receive my two new books yesterday, but they were delayed… UGH!  The Rev. Al Green greets me this morning with his song: Love And Happiness.. 

The dollar continued what it started late last week, and that his to get sold… The BBDXY lost 3 index points yesterday. The currencies all breathed a sigh of relief, that the dollar’s rally was brief… Gold was up and nearly traded above the $3,400 figure to end the day at $3,397, up $50 on the day… And Silver tried to get back to its 14-year high, but the short paper traders cut Silver’s rally off at $38.99, up 88-cents on the day… I have something very interesting for you in the FWIW section today on Silver, so I doubt you’ll want to miss that! 

Like I told you yesterday, the sentiment has changed on Wall Street, and risk assets are back on the buying table… In keeping that thought in mind, the price of Oil drifted yesterday, and ended the day at $66.61…  I also read last night that the bond boys are coming back around to thinking that long term inflation is on the board again, and now they need to show it by getting the yield moving upward again. The 10-year Treasury ended yesterday with a 4.37% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar just kind of drifted about, with the BBDXY staying at 1,200, but the euro climbing back over the 1.17 figure… The rest of the currencies are looking good too, as we start our day. 

The price of Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning and is down $9 to start the day, and Silver is playing follow the leader and is down 5-cents to start the day. After yesterday’s major move upward, these two needed to take a breather, and that’s just what they are doing. As long as the short paper traders don’t show up and begin to take their pound of flesh again, Gold & Silver should weather the day, and most likely will turn the negatives to positives… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained in the $66 handle overnight… And the 10-year Treasury trades with a 4.39% yield this morning. Maybe the bond boys got my message? Ha! I doubt that seriously! 

Speaking of Oil, that brings me to the Petrol Currencies, that includes: rubles, sterling, krone, loonies, rand and pesos, to name a few… These Petrol Currencies are stuck in a rut with the price of oil range trading these days… A currency like the Norwegian krone is influenced by not only the price of Oil, but also the euro… So, when the price of Oil is stuck in a rut like it is now, the rise in the euro helps the krone to inch higher VS the dollar…  

The underlying trend is for a weaker dollar… And it will get lower come hell or high water… In that I mean, the dollar has a laundry list of items stacked up against it right now, and should keep the dollar down, unless the PPT comes along and intervenes by buying dollars. We haven’t seen much from the PPT in recent times, and they have me wondering if we should put their picture on a milk carton? Not that I ever want to see them again, just pointing out that they’re missing… And that’s a good thing in my book! 

One of the things weighing on the dollar right now Is the clear as mud trade situation… Trade tensions are weighing heavily on the dollar, and lifting the price of Gold… We brought these trade tensions on ourselves, folks, so there’s no one to blame except we the people… I’m just saying…

And I found this on Zerohedge.com “Another wave of closures and layoffs has hit workers and companies tied to commercial transportation, manufacturing, lumber production, distribution and logistics across the U.S.

Over the past several weeks, there have been 4,137 job cuts announced, according to media reports and Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices.”

Chuck again… bet you didn’t hear that news on the 5 o’clock news did you?  Yet another item to add to the stack of problems for the dollar… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Leading Indicators for June, and I said they would be negative, and they were negative by -.3%…  Another item for the dollar weakness check list… 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has the Existing Home Sales… not a market moving  piece of data… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Monday, and throughout Monday night it drifted, and starts today trading in the same clothes as yesterday’s close 1,200…  Gold & Silver had good days yesterday but are seeing some small profit taking this morning.  Chuck talks about the Petrol Currencies, and layoffs along with trade tensions, not a good pair for the dollar… 

For What It’s Worth… This article I came across is about how the writer believes that Silver is the Canary in the Coal mine… And it can be found here: Silver — The System’s Canary – Charts and Parts

Or, here’s your snippet: “THE MOOD

Everything in silver is getting so, so stretched.

It’s hard to imagine this game going on much longer.

Harder still to imagine what happens when it ends.

This isn’t just about silver.

It’s about fragility, exposure, and cracks in a system designed to hold — until it can’t.

THE SIGNAL CLUSTER

In the past few weeks, a rare alignment hit the silver market:

Record short positions by swap dealers — offsetting natural demand

SLV borrow rates spike — shorts scrambling

Silver lease rates spike — users paying up for physical

COMEX warehouse stock explodes by +200M oz — futures buyers taking delivery

This is not normal. It’s pressure.

Coordinated or not, it’s happening.

And it all points in one direction: stress.

THE HEIST BLUEPRINT

If you read Silver Heist, none of this should surprise you.

We laid out the script — paper vs. physical, naked shorts, the shell game.

The paper market runs on illusion.

The physical market demands settlement.

That moment — when illusion meets delivery — is when systems must adapt.

ZOOM OUT

The takeaway isn’t just about silver.

It’s a case study in how systems mask fragility — until delivery day arrives.

First comes the mispricing.

Then the manipulation.

Finally, the reveal – the truth reclaims the narrative.

The pressure valve won’t hold forever – and change will follow.”

Chuck again… This article is full of charts to illustrate his points, of which I think he does a very good job of…  Check it out!

Market Prices 7/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6517, kiwi .5963, C$ .7306, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.6093, krone 10.1660, SEK 9.5852, forint 342.22, zloty 3.6375, koruna 21.0428, RUB 78.51, yen 147.41, sing 1.2815, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.37, China 7.1756, peso 18.61, BRL 5.5673, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $38.92, Platinum $1,450.00, Palladium $1,274.00, Copper $5.66, and Gold… $3,388

That’s it for today…  I received my RSV vaccine yesterday… My PCP requested that I get one since I’ve caught so many colds that turned into disaster…  Well, I sure hope it works, not that I think I’m now immune to germs… I still need to watch where I go, who I see, and what I do…  And I’ll be around little Evie for two weeks while on vacation, and she’s normally kryptonite for me… But she’s so cute! And when she wants to give me hug, I can’t resist! See? I’m an old softie!  The St. Louis band, Mama’s Pride takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Blue Mist… I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday today, and once again, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar loses its grip late last week…
• The sentiment on Wall Street has changed again!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals are in the dumpster, they lost 3 straight to the snakes out in Arizona right out of the All-Star Break… They are in deep dookie, and with the trade deadline next week, I doubt seriously that they will make a move to improve the team… They didn’t make any moves in the offseason, why would they make them now? It was a grand time on Friday night with my good friends at our local watering hole, and Saturday, I paid the price with an upset stomach all day… UGH!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their big 70’s song: Summer Breeze

The dollar’s mini-rally ended late last week, and the BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday to end the week at 1,203… I think it was a case of traders thinking they had gone too far, too fast, and correcting…   There was nothing late last week in the data that would have been a “buy” signal for the dollar, so there was that…  Gold began to put together a nice rally on Thursday, and ended the week on Friday up $24 since Thursday morning, and close at $3,347… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and ended the week on Friday up 33-cents, and close at $38.11 

The euro climbed back over the 1.16 handle to end the week, and the rest of the currencies all gained a bit here and there VS the dollar… 

Speaking of the euro… Did you hear that Morgan Stanley researchers had to say about the euro? Well, now you will! ” Morgan Stanley predicted that the euro will continue climbing toward $1.30 and beyond — a roughly 12.1% rise from its current level”

WOW! Now that’s going out on a limb! You’ve never seen me out that far on a limb,  have you? But, if the dollar is in a long-term weak trend, then I wouldn’t doubt that the euro will be able to reach that level…  See? My venture out on the limb is a calculated move, predicated on the dollar cooperating… 

The price of Oil climbed back above the $67 handle and that’s where it ended the week, while the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield drop a bit to end the week with a 4.42% yield… 

Last week I allowed my youngest son to swap cars with me as he needed to get new tires on his truck and had to just drop it off at the shop… That was all well and good until I got in my car on Thursday morning to go to the hospital and noticed that my gas light was on and I was about out of gas!  I went through all that to tell you that the price of gas hasn’t seen much of a drop!   

In the overnight markets last night…  the selling in the dollar that began late last week, continued throughout the night, but at a slower pace… The BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,202… The currencies all look a little perkier this morning, with the dollar bugs not too confident in owning dollars at this point. Gold is up $25 to start our day/ week today to start… And Silver is up 24-cents…  

I think that Wall Street is changing their sentiment again, and think the two Fed Heads, one current, and on former are speaking for the whole FMOC, and a rate cut is coming… Maybe not next week, but in Sept.  The Jobs Jamboree next week will hold the hammer, and it will be searching for a nail to drive home the rate cut in Sept… 

And that change of sentiment has a lot to do with Gold back on the rally tracks… All that dollar talk about the economy doing just fine, really suck in the craw of Gold, but that’s changed again, so que sera, sera…   I’ve got the stuff about the Fed Heads later in the letter this morning… 

Well, did you hear what the Bank of England (BOE) is doing these days? They are scrutinizing the banks they oversea and checking for overexposure to the dollar…  Wait, What?  Yes, here’s Reuters: “The Bank of England has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, three sources said, the latest sign of how the Trump administration’s policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability.

However, President Donald Trump’s break from long-standing U.S. policy in areas such as free trade and defense has forced policymakers to consider whether the emergency provision of dollars in times of financial stress can still be relied on.”

This is from one of our staunchest allies, folks…  You can only imagine what’s going on in countries that don’t like us very much…  I’m just saying…

And another of our top allies, the Eurozone, announced that they are preparing a retaliation to the POTUS’s tariffs… It seems everyone is piling on the U.S. right now, and this can’t be good going forward… 

Well, all the talk the last couple of months that the short papers’ traders hold on the metals was showing signs of weakening, have turned out to be nothing more than talk…  The day’s needed in production of Gold to cover the short positions is 68, and the day’s needed in production of Silver to cover the short position is 180, and yes those numbers are down a smidgen, but nothing to that would make you think that the SPT’s run is over… and even coming to an end…  Of course, I would love it if they were coming to an end, but I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown!

A current Fed Head, Waller, and a former Fed Head, Warsh, were both out last week dissing the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie with interest rates, while inflation is still hanging tough…  I have Warsh’s stance for you in the FWIW section today… 

Powell, has to feel like everyone is ganging up on him, and he’s backed into a corner, and he’s not a badger, or a mad racoon… He’s not going to come out and attack these guys, he’s going to coil up in the corner and hope they go away… 

I’m going to bring this subject up again, and then again next week and thereafter until something is done to correct it… I’m talking about the strain on the power grid by the AI drain… You see, AI uses tons more electricity and is already putting strains on power grides around the country… First it was the electric cars, now its the AI machines… E-Gad! And we’re just now getting into the hottest days of summer, when home air conditioners will be working overtime… what happens if your local power grid has a brown out, in the middle of a hot August day? I shudder at the thought… 

Yes, nuclear power could help relieve some of the strain, but building a new nuclear reactor is going to take years!  We’re heading down a dark alley folks…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the June Retail Sales, I have to say that it snuck up on me, so my bad… The June Retail Sales surprised by gaining .6%, after May’s negative print… I know what it was! Father’s Day’s gifts! NOT!  At least not at my house! 

The Data Cupboard today was the Leading Indicators for June… I expect them to be negative again, as they have been for a month of Sundays…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard this week until we get to Friday this week, and by then I’ll be packing my bags for my traditional Summer Vacation!

To recap… The dollar ran into a roadblock late last week and spent Thursday and Friday spinning its wheels. The metals took that as their opportunity to get back on the rally tracks, along with the price of Oil… So, the anti-dollar assets of metals and Oil were both beating up on the dollar to end the week… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had the former Fed Head, Keven Warsh’s comments for you on the Top Fed Head, Powell, and his stance to remain steady Eddie on rates, and you can find it here: Fed Chair Candidate Warsh Wants More Inflation

Or, here’s your snippet: “During a recent interview with CNBC, Warsh called for a regime change at the central bank, citing its reluctance to cut interest rates.

“Their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a mark against them. It’s as if they’ve lost some of the credibility. Truth is, in economics and inflation, bygones are not bygones. The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them. So, one of the reasons why the president, I think, is right to be pushing the Fed publicly is we need regime change in the conduct of policy.”

The interviewer directly asked Warsh if he thought Trump should fire Powell.

“I think regime change at the Fed will happen in due course.”

Warsh Wants More Inflation

Like President Trump, Warsh is an outspoken advocate of interest rate cuts, arguing that price inflation is under control. His statements indicate he believes the central bank has moved too slowly in the past. During the interview, he said the central bank should look beyond the “one-off” change in prices due to tariffs.

But make no mistake – this is a call for more inflation.”

Chuck Again…  yes, inflation as cooled from its heights, but it has remained siticky, and resilient and in fact increased in June…  The thing these knuckleheads that keep calling for rate cuts aren’t taking into consideration is that Money Supply has been increasing for over a year now… And what have I taught you about Money Supply? That Money Supply equals inflation…   

Market Prices 7/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .5963, C$.7296, euro 1.1659, sterling 1.3566, Swiss $1.2504, European Style: rand 17.7249, krone 10.1780, SEK 9.6177, forint 342.21, zloty 3.6391, koruna 21.2669, RUB 78.20, yen 147.20, sing 1.2820, HKD 7.7498, INR 86.30, China 7.1794, peso 18.65, BRL 5.5796, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $67.36, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $38.54, Platinum $1,457.00, Palladium $1,293.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,372

That’s it for today… Well, my blood work all looked pretty good last week, and my oncologist agreed with me that the tumor in my mouth hadn’t shrunk any more, but has remained stable… I woke up yesterday morning with a horrible pain in my left shoulder… I couldn’t move it without major pain shooting through my shoulder…  The pain subsided just a bit as the day went on… UGH!  I’m so sad about my baseball team… They are circling the bowl, folks… UGH! College Football starts in a month! I hope my beloved Mizzou Tigers do better than forecast… The Doors takes us to the finish line today with their song; Riders On The Storm…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• China’s GDP surprises!

Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! That was an interesting All-Star Game last night, with the St. Louis Cardinals representative, Brendan Donovan, getting two hits in his three plate appearances. The Game ended with a tie after 9 innings, and then a stupid swing off took place, and the National League won… That’s not the way to end a game in my book, same with soccer and hockey that do that… The early part of yesterday was warm and sunny, and then the rain moved in… I did get outside for a short time yesterday, but for some unknown reason the sun kind of got to me, and I needed to go inside and drink some cold water! The Marshall Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their song: 24 Hours At A Time… 

Well, the STUPID CPI got the dollar bugs are excited yesterday, when even the STUPID CPI showed an increase in inflation in June… That pretty much was the last nail in the rate cut’s coffin for later this month, and then maybe even into Sept at the FOMC’s next meeting after the July Jamboree…  And that thought got the dollar bugs all excited and they bought dollars left and right… The BBDXY gained 5 index points, and that made 11 index points that the BBDXY had gained in the last two days… 

Gold got the snot knocked out of it again when it looked like rates wont’ be going anywhere soon… Inflation rising should have helped Gold to weather the gold bugs’ storm,  but noooo… The Short Gold Paper Traders saw to that!  Gold ended the day down $20 at $3,324…  Silver was also taken to the woodshed by the SPT group, and once again, they’re hoping that potential buyer shy away from buying, and that long in the tooth holders would give up and sell…  And maybe here in the U.S. that works, but it doesn’t work overseas, and all they do there is provide a cheaper buying opportunity…  I’m just saying… 

The euro led the currencies back to the sick room and to their respective sick beds… Back to the drawing board for me…  This is getting really old, and I’m very tired of it! 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday and the 10-year Treasury bond picked up a few basis points to end the day with a 4.48% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… The overseas markets didn’t buy dollars last night, and I see them saying, “Whoa Partner, we’ve gone just a little too far, too fast” with the dollar rally… The BBDXY starts today at 1,207, the same figure it ended the day yesterday…  Inflation rising is something that will incur higher interest rates but the damage to real interest rates will return, and that’s what foreign investors look to find real returns…  So, we have that working in our favor, NOT!

Gold is up to start our day today, $20 and it will add to that today, unless the Short Gold Paper Traders return with gusto today… I imagine that the STP’s will return at some point just to keep Gold’s price from taking off to higher ground!  Silver is also up to start our day today, 41-cents and has risen past the $38 handle again.. The same for the STPs holds true for Silver today… 

The price of Oil slipped again last night and starts our day today trading with a $65 handle. And the 10-year Treasury bond is trading this morning with a 4.48% yield… I can’t imagine that the 10-year’s yield will remain below 4.50% too much longer, with inflation rising again…. I’m just saying…

I read a report this morning that talked about how the foreign Central Banks around the world have taken to a new form of obtaining physical Gold for their reserves… They’re buying it directly from the mining companies in their own back yards!  This is a cheaper way for the Central Banks to obtain physical Gold, cheaper…  And with the price of Gold so high, this makes abundant sense… So, the Central Bank accumulation of physical Gold continues, it’s just being done in a different way for some Central Banks… 

Well, things in China aren’t as dire as some would have you believe… China’s GDP grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, in a show of resilience against US tariffs. And China posted a record $586 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2025, defying expectations as factories appeared to ride out President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year, well above forecasts, as Chinese companies shifted sales to markets outside the U.S. – Reuters

Let’s see now… China posted a $586 Billion Trade Surplus, mostly selling to other countries than the U.S. Hmmm… sounds like a good business plan to me! 

And I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning… “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.

“Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it’d be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also.”

Chuck Again…  The most recent inflation report, even the STUPID CPI showed inflation rising again, can you imagine what inflation would really be doing if the Treasury Sec. And POTUS got their 3% rate cut?  And with inflation rising again, I would think their calls for rate cuts would be on the back burner… But, once you come out with a call, you have to defend it to the end, that that’s what phase the Gov’t’s stance is in now… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that inflation hits everyone and everything… Including tickets to a ballgame…  check this out: The average sold price of Monday night’s Home Run Derby is $1,041 and $1,183 for last night’s All-Star Game.

The next-highest prices for those two events were $604 and $754 in 2023, when the midsummer classic took place in Seattle.

Chuck again… Now, that’s what I would call a HUGE price increase in two years!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed that the STUPID CPI had gained in June… The June increase in consumer inflation was .3%, and annualized it also rose to 2.7% in June after a printing at 2.4% in May… I told you yesterday that I thought the report would show an increase, and it did… But once again, this report is in no way an indication of what you, me and the guy down the street, are experiencing in inflation.  

Today’s Data Cupboard has the PPI (wholesale inflation) for June and then we’ll see the color of June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization…  Both of these were disappointing in last month’s report, and I don’t see any change this month… 

To recap… The dollar is on a rampage after the STUPID CPI showed that inflation had increased the most for a month, in a few months, thus putting the markets’ call for a rate cut on the back burner… This report was also responsible along with the short paper traders for the loss in Gold & Silver yesterday…   The All-Star Game tickets show how badly inflation is… 

For What It’s Worth…  You know my position on ETF’s… I do not like them Sam, I do not like them with ham, I do not like them, Sam!  But they do show something that helps one with how much physical Silver is held… And the volume is flying off the shelves with Silver, and that article can be found here: 

Or, here’s you snippet: “Through the first half of 2025, inflows of silver into ETFs eclipsed the total for the entirety of 2024, reflecting a surge of silver investment demand.

The average annual price of silver rose 25 percent in H1. That was comparable to the 26 percent gain charted by gold.

Through the first six months of the year, 95 million ounces of silver flowed into ETFs globally. That pushed total fund holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, according to data compiled by the Silver Institute. That’s about 7 percent below the all-time high of 1.2 billion ounces hit in February 2021.

With the rising price of silver, the value of ETF holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding $40 billion for the first time.

ETF inflows were relatively constant through the first five months of the year, and then surged in June, with more than half the gains coming in the final month of H1. It was the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit silver squeeze in early 2021.

It’s important to consider the impact of this ETF on a market that is already operating at a supply deficit. Silver demand outstripped new supply for the fourth straight year in 2024 as industrial demand set another record.

A supply deficit means the surging industrial demand must pull from the existing above-ground supply. With investment demand increasing, the two sectors will have to bid against each other, potentially driving the price higher.”

Chuck again… not really… this is the end of that same article: “But while a silver ETF is a convenient way to play the price of silver on the market, you don’t actually possess any metal. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the silver either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have sometimes been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.”  

Market Prices 7/16/2025: American Style: A$.6520, kiwi .5984, C$ 7289, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3399, Swiss $1.2457, European Style: rand 17.9258, krone 10.3025, SEK 9.7583, forint 344.44, zloty 3.6684, koruna 21.2290, RUB 78.16, yen 148.69, sing 1.2850, HKD 7.85, INR 85.94, China 7.1806, peso 18.80, BRL 55569, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.58, Oil $65.93, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $38.01, Platinum $1,393.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3.339

That’s it for today and this week, as I’ll be at the hospital tomorrow for my monthly infusion… I think I’ve told you this before, but and if I have, forgive me for repeating, but the infusion room is one of the dreariest places on earth… I always want to get in and get out as fast as I can… Well, no baseball tonight, so I’ll have to watch something in place of baseball. UGH!  Darling daughter, Dawn comes over each day and gives swimming lessons to the little ones, and I love to sit outside and watch the little ones learn how to swim, and how their eyes light up when they realize they’re swimming on their own!  Deep Purple takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Hush…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, oh please, remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rallies continued on Monday
• Gold & Silver see their gains taken down…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A Great Show was put on by the contestants in the MLB Home Run Derby last night… There were some real bombs hit! The contest was won by the Home Run leader at the break Cal Raliegh… He’s hit 38 homers so far this year… That would be quite a year’s worth in most players’ minds… I had to watch this to take my mind off of the proceedings in the markets yesterday, we’ll get into that in a bit, but first… Eric Burdon and the Animals greet me this morning with their rock classic hit song: House of the Rising Sun… 

I recall back in the day when I wouldn’t miss a day playing my guitar, I learned this song and was quite pleased with myself! That was 55 years ago, at least! 

Well, the dollar got bought yesterday and continued the buying that took place the previous night.  The BBDXY ended the day yesterday up 6 index points on the day, and closed at $1,202… Well, the trashing of the dollar was fun while it lasted, eh? I read one pundit’s opinion that the dollar rallied because the POTUS announced new tariffs on our 2 top trade partners, The U.K and Mexico..  I don’t see how this favored the dollar, but it apparently did… 

Gold lost its early morning gain, and ended up with a loss on the day of $12… Silver, which earlier in the morning had traded at a 14-year high, had to give back the 60-cent gain it held in the A.M. and finished the day at $38.19… It seems that when the POTUS announced new tariffs on Mexico, that some traders took this to include Silver, of which Mexico is a HUGE exporter of Silver! That, and the short paper traders then decided to take a pound of flesh from Silver’s 14-year high… The short paper traders just couldn’t imagine they would still have their jobs if Silver closed higher in the $39 handle yesterday…  UGH! 

The price of Oil sunk on the tariff’s news too, with Oil’s price ending the day trading with a $66 handle… With U.S. consumers paying more and more for items that are sent to the U.S. and their disposable income circling the bowl… I doubt there will be much driving this fall to see the leaves… 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield added another basis point to end the day trading with a 4.43% yield… I’m surprised that it was only 1 basis point… But, there’s nothing I can do about it, so I’ll just leave it that!

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY is down 1 index point to start our day to day at 1,201… Nothing going on there to write home about, so we’ll just move along… Gold is up in the early trading today… 

$13… Much like yesterday morning, that then saw the short paper traders take a pound of flesh from Gold… Silver is down 3-cents to start the day today.. 

Yes, the U.S. consumer is watching their disposable Income circle the bowl, and here’s one of the reasons why… An American family spending $4,000 pa on medication would pay $300 for identical drugs in China, $481 billion in GDP inflation through legalized extortion of US households.  I thank longtime readers, Bob, for sharing that info with me… 

The dollar has been getting sold lately, and suddenly the selling turned around…. Here are the folks at HSBC on Bloomberg.com with their thoughts:  “It was not long ago that a strong USD bubble was evident, but the opposite is occurring: an ‘anti bubble’ of sorts,” the strategists wrote. “‘Bubbly-like’ characteristics exist, which is a warning sign that a USD bottom may not be far away”

A bubble for the downward dollar? That seems a little too far-fetched to me, because I was looking at a long-term downward direction for the dollar… But que sera, sera, whatever will be will be… The future’s not ours to see, que sera, sera…  I beg to differ with the words in that song, I do see the future at times, and I share those times with you dear reader…  I’m just saying… 

Did you hear about the demands that the AI people and their AI machines are putting on power grids?  This is scary stuff folks, we could be looking at rolling blackouts when the dog days of summer are upon us…  For those that have seen this as a possibility and have purchased generators, good for you!   For those of us who haven’t, we had better get a line of large Cubes of Ice!   I’m just saying… 

The Russian ruble finally moved off the $78 handle it has held for a month of Sundays… Kiwi is getting sold after their Central Bank’s debasing of the currency.  The euro couldn’t stand prosperity when it was trading above the 1.18 figure, and now it’s mired in the 1.16 handle. The dollar’s mini rally has the currencies all running for the hills because if this dollar rally doesn’t prove to be a false dawn, then we’ll be in store for more dollar talk regarding the upside… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today just has the STUPID CPI for June this morning.. I said yesterday that there was no way the STUPID CPI would show what we Americans feel as the inflation rate, but it will show that inflation increased in June,  and if it doesn’t, you can bet your bottom dollar that the BLS played games with the data…  That’s it for Data today… I guess the STUPID CPI is so important that it had to have its own day! NOT! There will also be 4 Fed Heads our speaking today… spreading more lies than a farmer spreads manure!

To recap… The dollar selling stopped on a dime, and HSBC says that the dollar was in a selling bubble that has now popped… In other words, the bottom has been reached…  Chuck argues that he doesn’t see it that way… Of course, you knew he would argue with that premise, didn’t you? Gold got sold yesterday, and Silver lost its 14-year high… UGH!

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at Gata sent me this article last week, and I finally got around to using it for my FWIW article… It’s about Gold and it can be found here: The Strategic Imperative of Domestic Gold Supply – DC Journal – InsideSources

Or, here’s your snippet: “In today’s unpredictable global environment, marked by persistent inflation, volatile interest rates and shifting trade dynamics, it’s easy to focus on geopolitics as the main driver behind gold’s enduring appeal.

However, deeper economic fundamentals are the real engine of its long-term strength. Structural deficits, sustained dollar weakness, mounting government budget deficits, and evolving global monetary policy are reshaping reserve strategies. 

Although gold prices have experienced a recent dip, the metal has shown strong resilience over the past year, buoyed by economic pressures rather than short-term market fluctuations. Price fluctuations are expected in any dynamic market, but they don’t diminish gold’s role as a reliable store of value.

Central banks, wary of inflation and weakening currencies, are shifting reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and buying gold at historic levels. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. acquired 600 tons of gold — an indication of growing institutional demand.

These monetary policy shifts and economic challenges indicate a significant potential for gold, reinforcing its strategic importance for investors and nations.”

Chuck again… yes, I’ve discussed all of the above reasons why Gold is so popular again, but as always, sometimes it takes hearing it from someone else to spur one’s action… 

Market Prices 7/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6562, kiwi .5992, C$ .7305, euro 1.1670, sterling 1.3444, Swiss $1.2547,  European Style: rand 17.8090, krone 10.1679, SEK 9.6493, forint 343.17, zloty 3.6469, koruna 21.1433, RUB 77.90, yen 147.92, sing 1.2816, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.61, China 7.1752, peso 18.68, BRL 1,201, Dollar Index 98.08, Oil $66.76, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,396.00, Palladium $1,222.00, Copper $5.55, and Gold… $3,357

That’s it for today… Crazy days… just right for taking a walk outside… early in the morning if you don’t want to deal with the heat of the day! While we’re out walking and thinking, think about whether or not you have enough Gold.  Just a friendly Spiderman reminder…  The MLB All-Star Game is tonight… I root for the National League, who when I was younger seemed to win every year, but not any longer… UGH!  When you had Bob Gibson, Fergy Jenkins, Don Drysdale to pitch for your team, you had a pretty darn good chance to win! Junior Walker & The All-Stars take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: What Does It Take?  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar recovers overnight at a quicker pace…
• Holy Cow, we booked a trade surplus!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were able to eke out a victory yesterday, after losing 2 to the Braves… It was a real nail biter, but after 4 hours of rain delays, the game finally ended… Tonight is the Home Run Derby and tomorrow night is the All-Star Game… Friday and Saturday were beautiful days of weather here, but Sunday brought rain… You have to have the rainy days to fully enjoy the sunny days, in my humble opinion!  Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his hit song: Secret Agent Man.. 

The dollar closed the week on Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY… It started the week weaker, and drifted higher as the week played out… The dollar continues to show that it wants to get weaker, but for some strange reason, it hasn’t.  And the euro has suffered because of that. The single unit ended the week at 1.1688… And the rest of the currencies all slumped downward VS the dollar.  No major moves, just small moves, but downward nonetheless…  

Gold finished last week on a good note… After gaining a measly $10 on Thursday, Gold took off on Friday, and fished the week up $32 to close the week at $3,356… Silver was the shining star on Friday, as it gained $1.38 to close the week at $38.44… That performance was long overdue from Silver, and much needed, if it’s going to reach $40 like so many pundits claimed a month ago… 

The price of Oil finished the week trading with a $68 handle… NO new news from the region so Oil traders were confident in pushing the envelope o the Oil price. The 10-year Treasury bond finished the week with a 4.42% yield…  Instead of listening to me, here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on the 10-year: “As I continue to point out in this spot every week, the 10-year hasn’t been allowed to trade above its 4.92% high tick set back on October 15, 2023 — and it’s more than obvious from the above chart that it will he held at something under 5% until further notice.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The other metals that we track all had phenomenal days on Friday last week, Platinum was up $45 to end the week at $1,409, and Palladium was up $73 to close at $1,236… And Copper ended the week at $5.60… In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter he always gives us the days of production needed to cover the short positions in all the metals, and I noticed that Copper is only needs 5 days of production to cover its short positions… And so, that means that there is very little interest in shorting Copper right now… And that should bode well for it to continue to rise…  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought at a greater pace than previously, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points overnight… The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,199… I read this morning that Wall Street is fearful of inflation returning, as well they should! The euro remains below the 1.17 to start our day/ week, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little worn out… The Euro Wannabes are still well bid, so we have that going for us!  

Gold is up to start our day/ week $12, and Silver is up 60-cents… If what I talked about above regarding Wall Street returning to a risk-off status because of their fear that inflation is returning, then that bodes well for these two metals…   Tensions are bound to return to the markets today, as the POTUS is going to make an announcement on Russia today…  So, watch for that… and trade accordingly…

The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and now trades with a $69 handle… inch-by-inch, the price of Oil recovers… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is rising again and starts our day/ week trading with a $4.43% yield.  Remember the wolf, aka, the Fed Heads are always at the door here, and could come in and do their yield curve control, aka price manipulation, at any time! 

Well, the U.S. Federal Budget was a surplus last month! Can you believe that? Well, it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat!  This from Reuters: “A first: U.S. customs-duty collections jumped in June, topping $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year and producing a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month.” As the great Harry Caray used to say: Holy Cow! So, I’m guessing the POTUS popped a bottle of champagne to celebrate this… 

But this is nothing more than a rounding error, folks… Our Debt is now $37 Trillion, and while I admit that the general public has no idea what the debt is, nor do they comprehend the size…  My favorite read, Matthew Piepenburg had this to say this past weekend, “Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.

This number alone is staggering.

The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.

1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.

Let that sink in for a moment.

If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.”

Chuck again… Matthew can be found here: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option?

I was reading Bill Bonner’s Newsletter on Friday, and he came up with some interesting ideas for fiscal policy for the U.S. These are very familiar as they echo my “debt solutions” Sunday Pfennig many years ago… Here’s Bill: “Anyone could spend a few minutes and come up with much better federal policies. How about this:

Quietly get rid of the violent criminals…then, set up a friendly guest-worker program for other immigrants.

Seriously cut government programs…reduce spending…balance the budget. Let Congress waste resources any way it wants…just so long as it doesn’t spend more than it gets in revenue.

Disband the Fed…re-establish a gold-backed dollar as America’s monetary standard…and let buyers and sellers of credit discover interest rates on their own.”

Chuck again, he also mentions bringing home all the soldiers from every nook and cranny all over the world. He wants to have a parade and celebrate their homecoming and then disband them… My thought on that was that we needed to bring them home and put them on the borders, North and South, and that would take care of our illegal immigration problem…  

But in the end, these are just thoughts, from logical thinking people, that will NEVER be implemented in our lifetimes, and it’s too darn bad!  Instead, we get the MAGIC Money Tree people, the Dick Cheney’s of the world, with is Debts don’t matter garbage, and others who talk about this resilient economy…  Chuckleheads, all of them… 

In other news from late last week, the POTUS announced a 50% tariff on Brazil’s export to the U.S.   Now this wasn’t your normal, “Let’s get the playing field even, kind of tariff” 

 Oh what the heck, I’m going to let Dave Gonigam from the 5 Bullets newsletter explain it to you, here’s Dave: “This is a novel use of tariffs… not to “level the playing field” when it comes to trade, nor to raise revenue for a cash-strapped federal government… but to meddle in the political affairs of other countries.”

I want to know why, oh why, we as a country continue to stick our noses in other countries’ business?  Just think of all the lives we could have kept from harm much less death, if we had just let these countries alone? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back to reporting real economic data this week, with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales and more… There’s nothing in the Data Cupboard today, but tomorrow, we see the STUPID CPI for June… I’m telling you now, that this data print will NOT represent what we as consumers are feeling as inflation… But it will tell us that inflation rose in June… I’m sure of that! 

To recap… The precious metals came roaring back to life on Friday last week, and all 5 of them added to their values… The dollar didn’t move much so it wasn’t dollar weakness that caused the metals to soar, it was rather the talk of more tariffs, that have just about ruled every day for some time now…  And overnight, the dollar was bought at a greater pace to start the day/ week at 1,199… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve long said that U.S. investors are not interested in Gold as a hedge for their investment portfolio and a store of wealth… This article goes into how Hong Kong Investors see Gold for just that… And if can be found here: Hong Kong Investors Have Nearly Tripled Their Gold Holdings

Or, here’s your snippet: “While many Western investors still haven’t hopped on the gold bandwagon, Asian investors have been piling up yellow metal.

For example, affluent Hong Kong investors have nearly tripled their gold holdings over the last year.

According to an HSBC survey, Hong Kong residents with $100,000 to $2 million in investable assets have allocated an average of 11 percent of their portfolios to gold and other precious metals. That was up from a 4 percent allocation just one year ago.

This reflects rising interest in gold and silver by Chinese and Asians more generally.

Investors in mainland China have even more exposure to gold, with an average of 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to precious metals. That was up from 7 percent last year.

Gold was up around 28 percent through the first half of this year. That follows on the heels of a 26 percent gain in 2024.

Asian investors and central bank gold buying have driven the gold bull so far. While physical gold investment surged in China (and Asia more broadly) last year, it remained tepid in the U.S. For instance, gold bar and coin sales surged 12 percent to 124 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 38 percent of global Q1 bar and coin investment. Meanwhile, gold coin and bar sales fell to the lowest level in five years in the U.S.

According to the Financial Times, gold has become the most attractive investment option in the midst of a Chinese real estate crisis and a bear market in stocks.”

Chuck Again…  this article really nails what I’ve been talking about or years now… I also know that many of you dear readers already have taken positions in physical Gold… So, to you, I’m preaching to the choir! 

Market Prices 7/14/2025: American Style: A$.6565, kiwi .5989, C$ .7312, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3481, Swiss $1.2555, European Style: rand 17.8690, krone 10.1037, SEK 9.5876, forint 332.36, zloty 3.6447, koruna 21.0871, RUB 78.09, yen 147.32, sing 2.2810, HKD 7.85, INR 85.98, China 7.1674, peso 18.69, BRL 5.5594, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $69.52, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $39.05, Platinum $1,398.00, Palladium $1,251, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3,369

That’s it for today…  Well, early warning that this week will be a short one, as I am to report to the hospital early Thursday morning, for needles, and a visit with my oncologist, oh, and there’s also an infusion…  For those of you wondering… The tumor in my jaw has stopped shrinking… This is not good news, but it hasn’t started growing again, so that is good news… So, my visit with my oncologist will be important… And next week I leave on my annual summer vacation next Saturday…  YAHOO! This time I’ll be on a plane without an oxygen tank! Thank goodness for that! The Great Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love Me…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to get bought by bits and pieces
• We live in a world of Opposites….

Good Day… And a Tub Thmpin’ Thursday to one and all! What an embarrassment outing for the Cardinals’ pitchers last night… I think the team has gone about as far as they can go with 3 of their starters… Their luck has run out! Do you hear me Mo? (The GM) The World Cup will be back in 2026, with games in a host of countries… Isn’t it about time for the U.S. team to make a run in the tournament? Well, if a ton of the boys that sit in their parents’ basement playing video games would play the game, we maybe could find a super star!  War greets me this morning with their great 70s song: Low Rider…

A chamber of commerce day here yesterday… I sat outside reading for a long time until the heat of the day Started to get to me… Then returned outside in the late afternoon, until the baseball game started. I then subjected myself to Yet another badly pitched game by the Cardinals… this has been occurring too often lately… UGH! The GM had better get some starting pitching at the Trade Deadline, or this team is toast! Blue Swede greets me this morning with their version of a 60’s song done in the 70’s: Hooked On A Feeling

When I left you yesterday, the dollar had been bought overnight, and sat at 1,196 to start the day… And the dollar ended the day at 1,196, so no gain, no loss on the day for the green/peachback…  The euro remained above the 1.17 handle and the rest of the currencies kind of drifted along throughout the day… Gold turned things around for once, in the last week and rallied. Gold gained $12 to close the day at $3,312… Silver didn’t turn things around and lost ground on Wednesday to the tune of 32-cents to close at $36.31… 

I read last night that the World Gold Council, which is normally a very conservative outfit, not wanting to hype Gold, had come out with a statement  that went something like this: “Gold will continue to benefit from the U.S.’s debt and financial instability, and doesn’t have to rely on a financial crisis for its rally”… 

Chuck again… so, if this normally stick in the mud kind of organization sees the U.S. having fiscal instability, and says it out loud, then we should sit up and notice, and take action… Got Gold?

The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday… I also read that there is still no peace in the Middle East, with the Houthis taking over ships and sinking them.  So, as long as the Oil tankers can get by, the price of Oil should remain well-bid… 

The 10-year Treasury saw some buying yesterday, (From whom?) and its yield dropped to 4.33%, from 4.41% where it started the day… That’s a big drop for one day’s trading folks, so there must have been some major sized trades going through.. .You know, if it smells like the Fed Heads, and Walks like the Fed Heads, and talks like the Fed Heads, then it must have been The Fed Heads doing to the buying!  I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying was light, but the BBDXY did gain 1 index point overnight, so we start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,197… The euro is back above 1.17, for now, and the rest of the currencies have held their gains VS the dollar, but have stopped gaining VS the dollar, for now, that is… The Euro Wannabes continue to be well bid, and that’s a good sign… So, how’s your diversification of your investment portfolio going? Gold has given back the $12 it gained yesterday, in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 13-cents to start the day… 

The price of Oil has slipped back to the $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.34% to start today…  

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been rumored to be ready to cut rates at their next meeting, but in a surprising move the RBNZ left rates unchanged yesterday, and that took some of the pressure off the currency (kiwi) and allowed it to climb back over the .60-cent level… 

Yesterday, I talked about Copper and how the POTUS had announced a 50% tariff on imports, and that Copper’s price had skyrocketed… Well, there was no backing off of the announcement yesterday, so Copper’s price continued to rise, and ended the day at $5.61… I had lamented yesterday that a rising Copper price will make EVERYTHING go higher in price… But don’t let that get in the way of a good story… I shake my head in disbelief…

Yesterday, the Fed Heads released their FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting, and guess what? The Fed Heads are confused! No way, C’mon Chuck tell us another one!  All kidding aside, here’s ZeroHedge.com with their thought on the FOMC Meeting Minutes: “Since the last FOMC meeting (June 18th), which saw a hawkish tilt to the dots (with Fed members notably divided – nearly as many participants anticipated no rate cuts this year as expected two), we have seen stronger-than-expected jobs data, constant diatribes from the president that ‘too late’ Powell should be cutting rates, and some tariff developments that supported Powell’s pause.

Stocks have melted up since the FOMC meeting (even as macro has weakened – bad news is good news)…

…while crude was clubbed like a baby seal (Israel-Iran ‘peace’) as bonds have been very modestly bid against dollar and gold weakness…

Rate-cut odds have risen modestly for 2025 since The FOMC meetings (two full cuts priced in, but July off the table) but are well down from pre-payrolls levels…

And both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data has weakened relative to expectations since the last FOMC…”

Chuck again… the article goes on to talk about how the Fed Heads are divided on their outlook for inflation from the tariffs, with some of the Fed Heads talking about stagflation…  

Confusing I know, but that’s their mantra… Confuse, and keep the markets guessing… 

The POTUS doubled down on his attack on Copper yesterday, when he reminded everyone that the 50% tariffs on Copper will begin on August 1… That’s 3 weeks away!  Oh, and what did the price of Copper do after traders heard that?  It rallied again, and starts today at $5.60

In our world of Opposites, bad news is good for prices, and vice versa…  And it’s not just in the U.S…. Take Switzerland for example… They debased their currency last month with a rate cut, and then went on to talk about how if they had to take rates to negative, they would have no qualms about doing so… That should have deep-sixed the franc, but instead since the rate announcement the franc has been rallying…  Go Figure… 

I already talked about the FOMC meeting minutes above, and that was it for the U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday… Today’s Data Cupboard only has the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…   And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard just has one print and it’s the Monthly Federal Budget data… That should be something! 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought a bit last night, as it gained 1-index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,197… Gold can’t find a good strong bid these days, but that’ doesn’t mean the Gold rally is over, it just means this is a consolodation period… Even the World Gold Council thinks the price of Gold will get back to rising…  Copper is still rallying on tariffs news, and Chuck talks about the Opposites effect that has inflitrated the markets these days…

For What It’s Worth… A lot of traders are puzzled about the tariffs on Gold & Silver Bullion, and this is the reason why… This article can be found here: Whether 145% or 10%, tariff uncertainty is enough to stop U.S. gold and silver imports, distort the metals market at all levels – Experts | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold prices have pulled back since the United States and China announced the lowering of trade tariffs for 90 days amid ongoing negotiations. But whether tariffs today are 145%, 30%, or 10%, the uncertainty gripping U.S. trade continues to make meaningful importing activities impossible. And despite early indications that precious metals would be exempt from Trump’s tariffs, trade activity in the sector is far from normal.

Josh Phair is the CEO of Scottsdale Mint. He said that while the headline may be ‘Gold and Silver Imports are Tariff-Free’, the reality is not nearly so simple.

“They said that bullion is exempted,” Phair told Kitco News. “But if we start looking at a lot of the tariff codes, everyone’s going to need to know exactly what is considered bullion, because in our industry we call coins bullion, like from Perth Mint, for example, but that actually is legal tender. It’s a monetary bullion product.”

Phair said it’s not a straightforward process to determine whether something is tariffed or not, especially when it fits into two or more categories.

“It looks like we’ve got some clarity on a piece of it, but a lot of people are waiting to know everything,” he said. “What nobody wants is to bring in a $10 million shipment of something and get slapped with $1 million-plus in taxes. It feels like the whole world is waiting for clarity.”

Chuck Again… I would agree with Mr. Phair on this… I’ll keep you updated on this, but if tariffs do become part of the Precious Metals trade, then some real changes in the prices of these metals will occur… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6555, kiwi.6015, C$ .7309, euro 1.1715, sterling 1.3576, Swiss $1.2569, European Style: rand 17.7530, krone 10.0742, SEK 9.5144, forint 340.44, koruna 21.0294, RUB 77.79, yen 146.36, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.64, China 7.1750, peso 18.63, BRL 5.5729, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.53, Oil $67.80, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $36.68, Platinum $1,352.00, Palladium $1,146.00, Copper $5.68, and Gold… $3,324

That’s it for today and this week… You know I’m so happy that I decided to take 3-day weekends every week a few years ago, and that no one had a major problem with it… Some readers weren’t happy with me, but they got over it, with time…  I would tell them, “you know, I AM RETIRED?”  Well, semi-retired I guess, since I do wake up with the farmers 4 days a week to write… I’ve gained about 7 lbs since I started being able to keep down food again… I don’t like gaining weight, but the doctors sure do… not to the weight I was in 2020… but from the weight I was 4 weeks ago!  I was pushing the weight loss envelope too far 4 weeks ago anyway!  Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… Yes, music was always the best to listen to with headphones on… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar ends last week drifting…
• Gold ends the 1st half as the Top Dog!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did you have a nice Holiday weekend? It was a hot one here, but it is, Summer in St. Louis, I recall as a kid that we had a week of 100 days, and we didn’t have air conditioning back then! We finally got a room air conditioner; my mom closed all the doors to the room and didn’t allow the kids to open a door and come in during the day! Ahh, great memories! Shirtless, cut off shorts, and a baseball cap were my daily garments! My beloved Cardinals are sinking quickly into an abyss… UGH!  Jim Croce greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Operator… 

Well, last week ended with a dud for the dollar… and not a firework gone bad… Thursday was the last real trading day of the week, and Gold lost $33 after the STUPID Jobs Jamboree showed that 147,000 jobs were created in June, thus the markets surmised that the Fed Heads would delay the July rate cut… Silver found a way to squeeze out a 17-cent gain.. The BDDXY was up 1 index point, whoopee! NOT! The price of oil bumped higher to a 67-cent handle, and the 10-year’s yield increased to 4.35% (no Fed Head buying)  

On Friday, our holiday in the U.S. Gold was traded in Asia and Europe, and saw it gain $10 on the day, to end the week at $3,325… Silver added another 6-cents to it’s value. Gold closed the week at $3,335… Silver closed the week at $36.85… The dollar drifted and really didn’t get much love after the abomination of a Labor Report… Do you think the currency traders are beginning to see the light?  I doubt it, I think that there wasn’t anyone at the trading desks, except some wet behind the ears assistant who was given instructions to not take any positions!  The BBDXY ended the week at 1,191… 

The price of Oil remained in the $67 handle on Friday, and the 10-year ended the week with yield of 4.34%…

In the overnight markets last night.. The traders finally came around to thinking that the Jobs report in the U.S. was enough to scare the Fed Heads away from cutting this month, and they bought dollars… The BBDXY gained 4 index points overnight, and starts today at 1,195… Gold and Silver are taking a shellacking this morning, because of the Jobs Report… Gold is down $33 to start our day, and Silver is down 73-cents… It’s the short paper traders again adding to the negative thoughts in the markets about Gold & Silver right now…  

My good friends and former publishers, Mary Ann and Pamela Aden still have their weekly newsletter, and they depend on the charts for their forecasts, and this is what they had to say about Gold right now… “As for gold, a mild D decline is now in force, and it’ll stay mild as long as gold stays above $3250. We recommend taking advantage of this weakness to buy more if you want to add to your positions.” Of course, you can find the Aden Sisters at www.Adenforecast.com

And what do I always say when Gold get the snot knocked out of it by the short paper traders? Use it as a buying opportunity to buy Gold & Silver at cheaper prices…  

The price of Oil remains trading with a $ 67 handle to start our day today, The Saudis have reported a higher Oil price for their black Gold, Texas Tea… So, that bodes well for the price of WTI the Gold price I use…  And the 10-year starts our day/ week with a 4.35% yield…  

The Good folks at GATA sent me this note: “Monday was the last trading session of the first half of this calendar year, and precious metals have beaten the socks off all other investment categories. Platinum is up 47%, palladium 24%, gold 23%, and silver 22.7%. Even copper previously recognized as monetary in coinage was up 21%”

So, will the 2^nd half of 2025 be as good to the precious metals as the 1st half was?  Well, that’s the $64 question now, isn’t it? In my humble country boy opinion, I would say that it will… The chaos in the world is just beginning, and the debt in the U.S. will continue to grow like a weed, and the fact that for the most part, U.S. investors still don’t own any Gold… Once they figure out that the U.S. in deep trouble, they’ll finally call up their investment advisor and ask if they can sell him some Gold… After being told no, they will then hopefully call my metals guru at EverBank, Tim Smith, at 1-800-926-4922…  

And the rate cuts in the U.S. are still on the docket, folks… They will come, you can bet your sweet bippy…  It was reported on Friday that the POTUS said that he won’t fire Fed Head Chairman, Jerome Powell, but… Powell, might be up for censure from Congress…  Any way you look at this, Powell is out, Bessent is in, and there will be a flood of rate cuts… While all of that is good for Gold… it’s bad for the dollar and the U.S. economy… But that’ll be somebody else’s problem in the future… right? 

Well, these knuckleheads had better be ready to eject from this mess, if it comes back to bite us all before their terms are up… 

If I were king… The first thing I would do is fire all the accountants in the Gov. That has anything to do with all the fraudulent economic reports… Then I would order all of DOGE’s findings to be corrected… Speaking fraudulent reports… The Jobs Jamboree last week for June was nothing but fiction, folks…  The ADP Employment Report for the same period was negative -33,000 jobs in June… Now, would you prefer to rely on the ADP, or the Gov’t for correct reporting of jobs created? 

The dollar is in trouble folks… Got Gold?   The dollar has lost over 10% in the first half of this year, and that means your stocks and bonds are down 10% before they start adding up their gains…  And to me, I think that this 10% loss is just a harbinger of what is to come for the dollar… I could be wrong about that, but as far as I can see with the ways things are going, it’s just logical thinking…  

Oh, and I almost forget to include this from the daily hodl.com  “And add this little ditty to the Jobs report, that many won’t take the time to see: The latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) shows that M2, which tracks the total amount of readily available money circulating in the US financial system, stood at $21.942 trillion as of May 2025, shattering its previous peak of $21.749 trillion recorded in April 2022.”

Chuck again… and you know what I say about money supply, don’t you? Well, you should by now… But here goes: Money Supply is inflation…  So, with the money supply rising at this pace, why should the Fed Heads cut rates? There’s plenty of money circulation  on the economy, and along with it comes…. inflation!

See? I’ve got a bag full of reasons why the dollar is in trouble, but… I can’t go through them all here, maybe tomorrow, I’ll go through some more!

And longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note that he found, that explains why the Chinese have stopped showing up that the Treasury auction window… here it is: In 2011, three years after it rescued the US from the great financial crisis, the Fed asked the PBOC to buy an outsize portfolio of Treasuries. China obliged, then watched helplessly as Quantitative Easing devalued them. Now, says central banker Kathleen Tyson, “China holds its USTs to maturity rather than sell at discount, then reinvests the proceeds in its BRI and BRICS partners”. In 2015, the US Treasury began weaponizing Treasury Bonds through sanctions and expropriations of Venezuelan, Afghani and Russian central bank reserves, alarming the PBOC (and most central banks). This year the US dollar has lost 15% of its value against global currencies. By 2025, says Ray Dalio, unsupportable borrowing will keep the economy in permanent recession⁴.

Chuck again… This is all going to come to tears folks… The Gov’t keeps spending like a drunken sailor, and needing to sell Treasuries to finance their spending sprees,  and that requires someone to buy those Treasuries… What happens when only the Banks required to take on Treasuries (the Primaries)  when the Primaries are the only buyers? Uh-Oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the Trade Deficit for May, which was $71.5 Billion… And the Jobs Jamboree, which I told you last Thursday at the end of the letter that it had printed like that… I just don’t get how the markets can take the fraudulent numbers that the BLS prints each month at face value…  The markets seemed to think that 147,000 jobs created in June was a good number, and showed a strong economy…  Let me be the first to tell them that 24,000 jobs were created out of thin air by the BLS after they had received the surveys… Now, would the markets have a different outlook if the number had been reported as surveyed at 123,00 jobs? Maybe, but who knows, because the markets never stop to look under the hood… And then there was this little ditty:

And add this little ditty to the Jobs report, that many won’t take the time to see: A June jobs report that is consistent with negative prints for real wages and industrial production is deemed by the masses and the markets to be solid. Adjust for the decline in the workweek and the Birth-Death model skew, and guess what? Private sector payrolls sank -400k last month. Let’s hope the Fed finds the time to scratch the surface, just a little. This was a weak report, my friends!

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is pretty barren… Only the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting are offered up for us to view on Wednesday… Other than that it’s all junk reports… Like Consumer Credit (read debt), and the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims… that last one is not so much junk, but it’s not market moving, unless it is… Like I always say, the markets are fickle… 

To recap… Last week ended like a dud for the dollar… Gold was treated badly, but Silver was a welcome guest… There was no Fed Head buying of Treasuries, so the yields of those bonds rose….  The 10-year, that we follow ended the week with a 4.34% yield, it started the month at 4.25%… That was when the markets thought the Fed Heads would cut rates this month… That, no longer, is the case… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me late last week, after I had already quit writing for the week. It’s from MarketMetals.com and its author is Mike Maharry, who is a well-respected analyst… The article is about are interest rates too high? And it can be found here: Are Interest Rates Too High?

Or, here’s your snippet: “A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.

Are they right? Does the central bank need to step in, slash interest rates, and loosen monetary policy?

The honest answer to the question is that nobody really knows. However, from a historical perspective, interest rates are low, and monetary policy remains loose.

What Are Interest Rates?

Before we delve into whether the current interest rate environment is too high or too low, we need to understand exactly what an interest rate is.

Fundamentally, it is a price – the price of borrowing money.

Since interest rates are prices, they behave in the same way as any other price in a free market. As the demand for money increases, interest rates (the cost of money) tend to rise. When the demand for money wanes, rates fall. In other words, if left alone, interest rates will set themselves based on market activity.

When central planners intervene and “set” interest rates, it inevitably creates problems.

Think about it. Would you trust government central planners to set the price of tennis shoes? Or iPhones? Or automobiles? Imagine what would happen.

In fact, we don’t have to imagine. We have countless examples of government price controls going haywire. Inevitably, we end up with shortages and/or overproduction.

Historically, rates aren’t high.”

Chuck Again… Regular Readers of this letter know that I side with Jerome Powell, keeping rates unchanged for now, there will come a time in the near future when cutting rates will make some sense, but to do it now, while money supply is soaring would be disastrous!  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 7/7/2025: American Style: A$ .6502, kiwi .6000, C$ .7317, euro 1.1727, sterling 1.3615, Swiss $1.2631, European Style: rand 17.7532, krone 10.1243, SEK 9.52, forint 340.70, zloty 3.6234, koruna 20.9933, RUB 78.65, yen 145.43, sing 1.2787, HKD 7.8499, INR 85.56, China 7.1742, peso 18.73, BRL 5.4211, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 97.36, Oil $67.00, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $36.15, Platinum $1,350.00, Palladium $1.136.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold… $3,303

That’s it for today… On July 4 & 5, I smoked some pork steaks that turned out to be ultra-yummy! The secret of cooking pork steaks is to take it slow and low… 6.5 hours later we sat down to eat…  Friday and Saturday were beautiful hot days, and then Sunday it rained… I started reading a new book titled: November 22nd , 1963, because it came highly recommended by good friend Duane… It’s a thick book, like my Cormoran Strike books, so I’ll read 100 pages or more a day…  Earth, Wind & Fire take us to the finish line today with their great song: September… Now, if that song doesn’t get you movin’ and groovin’   Well, I’ve said enough! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• Florida cuts sales taxes on precious metals…

Good Day..  And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals went and did the dirty deed, and it wasn’t done cheap! They got shut out for the 3^rd consecutive game by the Pirates! After sweeping the Indians, I mean the Guardians, they get swept by the Pirates! See why I say this team is so frustrating at times?  Yesterday’s game was a day game, you know they kind I like!, so that meant I had nothing to do with myself last night, Kathy was out for the evening, and so I went outside and read until it got dark… That was a good time of day to be out, as th sun had set and the temps were dropping.. Not much, but dropping nonetheless… Steely Dan greets me this morning with their great song: Do It Again… 

Well, the dollar selling stopped yesterday, but there was no dollar buying either, so it was a wash of a day for the dollar… I think that today’s trading could go one of two ways… The first way is that the selling continues, and with skeleton crews manning trading desk, this could get to be a real ugly day for the dollar… Or, the jobs jamboree is miraculously strong, and the dollar rallies with traders knowing that the fed is going to wet their powder this month.  Or, and here’s a third possibility, and that is that there’s no one on the trading desks to make a difference, and the dollar does nothing again today…  Got that? I sure hope so, because I got confused typing it all up! HA! 

The euro inched higher in the 1.17 handle yesterday, and came within spitting distance reaching the 1.18 handle again… 

The price of Gold was allowed to gain yesterday by the short paper traders, although the short paper traders did test the Gold trader’s mettle…  But soon found that the Gold traders had the physical buyers ready and waiting to buy, and the SPT’s decided to go home… Gold gained $20 yesterday and closed at $3,358….  And Silver saw the same kind of action and gained 64-cents to close at $36.61… The Price of remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield drop a couple o basis points to yield 4.26%

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar drifted around a bit last night but in the end, it starts today in the same clothes it wore yesterday, with the BBDXY at 1,189…  Gold starts today down $14, but Silver starts today up a shiny quarter!  The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and trades this morning with a $67 handle… It looks like the cease fire in Israel / Iran is holding, and that takes the worry out of the price of Oil… And the 10-year Treasury remains trading with a 4.26% yield this morning… So far that is, as we all await the Jobs Jamboree jobs created report for June, that will, I’m certain, contain some jobs created out of thin air, but how many will be the question… 

I read a report this past weekend that I just now remembered that I wanted to talk about… UGH!  The report was about how Hungary has shifted it’s favored trading partner from the U.S. to China… I’m just the POTUS was screaming at the walls when he was told that!  Well, Mr. POTUS, you’ve got to get those interest rates lower, so the dollar continues this march to a long-term weak trend… When you figure out how to kick Jerome Powell out the door and implant your yes man, Mr. Bessent, in his place things will get much easier! Just giving some help to the POTUS!

And it’s not just Hungary that has shifted their trade agreements to… With all the chaos going on, the war in the Middle East, and Ukraine,  and after just going through a period of cycle-wise highs in inflation.. .The rest of the word is looking for some place that is calm, and the doesn’t have problems like those hanging over the heads… I read where The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from around 70% in the early 2000s to below 60%. Some estimates place it as low as 48%.   It’s called de-dollarization, and it seems to be catching on… 

It’s not a laughing matter folks… The Central Banks around the world know what’s going on here in the U.S. and the dollar is long for a weak trend, and they are just attempting to get ahead of rush to the dollar’s exit door… 

And that brings me to the question… How’s your investment portfolio diversification going? Or better yet… Got Gold?  The first weak dollar trend started in 1971, and went through the 70’s until 1979, and volcker’s rare hikes brought dollar buyers back…  The dollar has gone through a few trends since Nixon set it free in August 1971…  I used to show these trends on slides when I used to give presentations at conferences… I think they went like this: 1971-1979 weak dollar trend (WDT) 1979 – 1986 Strong dollar trend (SDT), In 1985 finance ministers met at the Plaza Hotel in NYC, and decided that the dollar was too strong, and came out with what was called the Plaza Accord..  So, in 1986 we started the next WDT, and that ended in 1,994 when then Sec. Treasury Robert Rubin began telling the markets that “a strong dollar is in the best interest of the U.S.” and that strong trend ended in 2002… When it was first discovered that the U.S. was running debts and printing money… That WDT lasted until 2013, when the debts of the Eurozone were discovered, and the PIIGS were named…  And the SDT that began in 2013 remained in place even through the Financial meltdown of 2007&8, until this year… That’s when I first noticed cracks in the dollar’s armor… I had seen these cracks a few times in the past, but they proved to be false dawns… But this one is different, and I do believe the dollar has begun its trek through a Weak Dollar Trend…  Whew! My fat fingers need a break after typing all of that! 

I’ve long thought that when the Euro Wannabes rally then the dollar is in trouble…  The Euro Wannabes are: Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Check Republic koruna… I’ve added another currency to the ones I watch for indication that the dollar is in real trouble and that is the Chinese renminbi…  And I don’t know if you have noticed the renminbi has been getting allowed to gain VS the dollar… But it is!  So, go check the currency round up out… Go ahead, skip ahead I won’t mind… but make sure you come back!

Circling back to Gold  & Silver this morning…  this from Kitco.com ” In an interview with Kitco News, Ryan McIntyre, Senior Managing Partner at Sprott, said that while he remains bullish on gold, he is currently paying a bit more attention to silver in the near term.

McIntyre’s bullish outlook comes as the gold/silver ratio trades below 92, down sharply from April’s multi-year highs above 100. Spot silver last traded at $36.40 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day. Meanwhile, spot gold last traded at $3,344.28 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day.”

See how fickle traders are? Gold stumbles out of the gate in June for its traditional June Swoon, and all the attention shifts to Silver… What have you done for me lately? Is a trader’s mantra…  One of my first speaking engagements was in Phoenix Arizona, and I followed a woman who painted a very scary picture of traders and how fickle they are… I got up on stage and told people that I was a trader and I would bet that they would like to invite me to dinner!  I got a big laugh out of that from the crowd, and it relieved all the metal pressure that came from my first speaking engagement… 

Well, Florida joined the list of states yesterday that have removed sales tax from the sale of metals… Good for you Florida! There was another state that had announced this same result earlier in the week, but for some reason I can’t remember who that was… The point is that the states are making it easier to accumulate Gold & Silver and not worry about being taxed when you pass it down to your kids, and they decide to sell it because they don’t want to deal with storing it..   Sad scenario, right?  I hope this doesn’t happen to any of you! 

I had a meeting yesterday with my wealth advisor, who’s retiring… And the thought came to me of how many of the professionals in my life have retired… I’ve had 2 oncologists retire, a handy man I used retired, 1 PCP retire, and now 1 wealth advisor… I guess it just shows that I’m getting old… UGH!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday day had the ADP Employment Report, and it showed that the economy lost 33,000 jobs in June… Wait, What? Our strong and resilient country (according to the Feds) lost 33,000 jobs in a month where all the grads were finding jobs? Well, today’s Data Cupboard has the Jobs Jamboree for June and unless the BLS adds 10’s of thousands of jobs to the surveys to dress up the report, a very weak labor report would push the Fed Heads to cut rates later this month… 

So, why’s Gold down this morning?  Short paper traders… easy question to answer… 

To recap… The dollar continued to drift lower yesterday and last night… Traders are thinning out ahead of the Holiday Weekend, and no one wants to make a call on the direction of the dollar with the Jobs Jamboree coming up very soon this morning… Chuck goes through the dollar trends in our history since Nixon pulled the dollar off of the Gold backing in August 1971…  

For What It’s Worth… I found this article this morning, yes I get up quite early, and thought it was FWIW worthy, as its about where this fellow thinks Gold & Silver are going… spoiler alert, he thinks they are going to soar… And it can be found here: Why gold revaluation charts put prices at $25,000-$55,000 if history rhymes, silver poised for breakout: Crescat Capital Strategist | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Speaking at the PDAC 2025 conference in Toronto, Costa told Kitco News that historical comparisons suggest a dramatic revaluation of gold could be in store.

Costa highlighted his firm’s recent report, which examines the potential for gold prices to reach extraordinary levels if the U.S. were to revalue its gold inventory relative to outstanding Treasuries.

“To me, it comes down to the treasury. How much treasuries are outstanding out there – 36 trillion. How much do we own of gold?” Costa stated.

Currently, the value of U.S. gold reserves is about 2% of those Treasuries outstanding, compared to roughly 17% in the 1970s and close to 40% in the 1940s.

“And if we’re going to go back to the 17%, it takes us back to $25,000 dollars an ounce, or if we go back to the 40%, it’s close to $55,000 an ounce,” Costa explained, noting that these are not price targets but serve to illustrate the potential for significant valuation shifts.

He pointed out that central banks have been accumulating gold at 50-year highs since the global financial crisis, while U.S. gold reserves are at their lowest levels in 90 years. This divergence, Costa suggests, could pressure the U.S. to reconsider its gold policy.”

Chuck again… that is the wildest forecast for the price of Gold folks, so take it with a grain of salt, but remember that things are crazy these days, so a crazy price isn’t out of the realm of imagination… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/3/2025: American Style: A$ .6574, kiwi .6069, C$ .7361, euro 1.1791, Swiss $1.2602, European Style: rand 17.5191, krone 10.0711, SEK 9.6471, forint 338.94, zloty 3.5041, koruna 20.9049, RUB 78.79, yen 143.88, sing 1.2733, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.31, China 7.1609, peso 18.76, BRL 5.4248, BBDXY 1,189.60, Dollar Index 96.80, Oil $67.30, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $36.86, Platinum $1,381.00, Palladium $1,151.00, Copper $5.18, and Gold… $3.345

That’s it for today… Well, The BLS just printed the Jobs number for June, and they say the economy added 147,000 jobs…  OK, the ADP says we lost 33,000, and the BLS says we added 147,000… The difference here is too great to attribute it to a rounding error… I’m of the opinion that this result will give the short paper traders the opportunity to take Gold down further… Watch out for that… look for buying opportunities… Well, tomorrow we, as a country, celebrate our Independence Day… This was always a BIG Day at the Butler House where I grew up… The BBQ pit smoking and smelling great, friends and family dropping by, and my dad shooting off fireworks in the alley… Great Memories… OK, enough Simon And Garfunkel take us to the finish line today with their catchy song: Cecilia…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please try to Be Good To Yourself!!

Chuck Butler

• currenc8es and Gold find their way higher VS the dollar
• The Big Beautiful Bill passes the Senate…

 Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Last night’s game was a real ho-hummer, a pitchers’ duel, with my beloved Cardinals losing for the second night VS the Pirates… UGH! Every time the team seems to get close to the division lead, they go on a losing streak! This is very frustrating! I had to go back to the eye surgeon yesterday for a check on how I was doing… He told me to take care of my right eye, without glasses on, and actually suggested that I get some clear glasses, so that my eye is protected… I told him that I was just getting used to being without glasses! Oh well, I’ve learned one thing through all my health journeys and that is to listen to the doctor!  Ian Gomm greets me this morning with his song: Hold On… 

Well, the dollar bears took a breather yesterday, and rested and only took the dollar down 1 index point in the BBDXY… The euro slipped below the 1.18 handle, and the rest of the currencies just kind of drifted… Gold started the day on the right foot, and continued to move upward on the day, by $34 to close at $3,338… Silver wasn’t allowed to gain yesterday and saw its early morning gain turn into loss of 34-cents to close at $35.99… 

The price of Oil remained above the $65 all day yesterday and ended the day at $65.50… The 10-year Treasury keeps getting bought and its yield just keeps dropping… The yield on the bond closed yesterday trading with a 4.25% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar continued to drift lower by 1 index point in the BBDXY, and starts today, that will contain some real economic data prints, at 1,188… Gold is flat to up a buck this morning and starts the day at 3,339, while Silver rebounds from yesterday’s sell off that was fueled by the short paper traders, and Silver starts today at $36.31… 

Th price of Oil bumped higher overnight and starts today trading with a $66 handle… It seems the chaos in the Middle East has calmed a bit, and the markets have moved past this scenario and are looking for something new to bite on…  Markets are like that, folks… While the tension and saber rattling may still be high, the markets will move on from the area and look for something new… 

And that new, is looking like it’s going to be centered around rate cuts in the U.S.  The bond boys know it, Lola knows it, and now you do too!  Speaking of bonds, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond finally saw some selling yesterday, and the yield rose to 4.25% and then added some additional yield to the bond overnight to start the day today at 4.29% yield…  Were the Fed Heads in buying earlier this week and that’s what caused the yield to drop?  I would imagine so, they (Fed Heads) don’t like it when the markets get ahead of their rate decisions…  But they’re too late, it’s already happened… 

Circling back to Gold for a moment… I have to apologize for jinxing Gold yesterday, saying that June was over and so was Gold’s June Swoon…  I should know better than to say something like that out loud…  I must have had a Senior moment! Like the one I had yesterday evening, when my good friend and neighbor, Dewey, honked at me as he drove by and I was sitting on the porch glider… And then about an hour later sent him a text and asked if he was in town?   What A DOLT! 

And this came from my looking for FWIW articles yesterday.. Reuters said, “Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its projection for U.S. interest rates in 2025 to three-quarter-point cuts because of muted tariff effects and labor market weakness.

The Wall Street brokerage expects rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October and December. It had earlier projected a single 25 bp rate cut this year.”

Longtime readers know that I refer to Goldman Sachs as Lola.. As in what Lola wants, Lola gets… And I wouldn’t argue with Lola on this one, because if Lola says there will be 3 rate cuts this year, there will be 3 rate cuts this year… I’m just saying… 

Remember the Fed Heads began cutting rates last year before their inflation target of 2% was met…  The inflation rate neared 2% and the Fed Heads went ahead and tried to beat the calls for rates… Sort of like an Oklahoma Sooner… not the University teams name, but the actual Sooner… Don’t know the story behind that? I suggest you file a suit on your history teacher! 

Lola’s viewpoint is that the tariffs have not caused any pain in the economy… And trust me when I tell you this, but Lola has probably got 100’s of economists on their payroll..  And I’m just a lonely boy, who sits in his basement at his computer and does research on the economy…  All by myself! And I don’t believe that 3 rate cuts this year will help the economy… I’m just saying… 

But what 3 rate cuts will do or should do is become the next kind of fuel to power Gold’s rise… Lola also said that they think the Fed Heads will cut rates 2 more times in 2026!  

The Big Beautiful Bill passed in the Senate yesterday with the deciding vote by the VP to break the tie… It now goes to the House… I realize that the tax cuts that present will remain that way if the Bill gets passed, but… The debt will increase even faster than the Debt Clock has forecast… And the Debt Clock has the debt increasing to $46 Trillion in 4 years…   And in 8 years it has the debt increasing to $57 Trillion…  I seriously don’t believe we’ll get to $57 Trillion without a financial system breakdown, so don’t get your heart set on having a $57 Trillion Debt…  At that figure of $57 Trillion, the debt per Taxpayer would be $428,331   Now, you can make that check out to the U.S. Treasury…   And you had better be putting some Gold in your piggy bank because when you add in the unfunded liabilities the debt per taxpayer will rise to $1,206,254…   

Ok, enough of that debt talk Chuck, you’ve done this talk for over 30 years now, and back when you started talking about the deficit/ debt it was only $4 Trillion and the Budget Deficit was only around $700 Billion…   And I’ve written about each and everyone of the increases… Shoot Rudy the U.S. Debt was $20 Trillion in 2016, and look what 9 years has done to that figure!

You know that most of the countries around the world have a debt problem too, but only Japan has one bigger than the U.S. And then we don’t really care about their problems, do we? We have our problems to deal with, and brother are these problems!

Counties like Singapore, Russia, Norway and few others have little to no debt, and yet their currencies are held hostage by the dollar… Amazing isn’t it?

And this final thought.. From Bloomberg.com: “The US Dollar Index has fallen about 10.8% year-to-date, compared with a 14.8% slump in the first half of 1973”

Old timers like me, will recall that once Nixon took the backing of Gold from the dollar in August 1971, that the dollar went on a long-term weak trend, that lasted until then Fed Chairman Volcker began hiking rates to the moon… So, anytime we can compare today with the 70’s regarding the dollar, that’s what I think of…  And back in the day, the BBDXY wasn’t created yet, so we all depended on the Dollar Index, which was more important in those days, before European countries turned their respective currencies into the euro… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the June ISM (manufacturing index) and I had said that it would remain below the 50 level that denotes any number below it has a manufacturing sector that’s contracting… well, the June number was below 50, but it has risen a bit from May and now sits at 49%… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report for June… I would assume that this data set will reflect all the grads getting new jobs in June, and it would show a better than May report which was only 37,000 jobs created in May… We will see the Jobs Jamboree a day earlier than normal tomorrow, because Friday is a holiday…  You know just that little old Independence Day Holiday, July 4! 

To recap… The dollar continued to get sold yesterday, but at a much slower pace and the BBDXY only lost 1 index point on the day… Gold and Silver’s early morning gains were erased by the short paper traders, and Chuck apologizes for jinxing Gold yesterday… The Big Beautiful Bill passed the Senate yesterday, by one vote, and now goes to the Senate, and while it does keep the tax cuts we received in 2016 in place it also adds a large amount of debt… I don’t even want to talk about how much more debt it will cause, I’m becoming Comfortably Numb (Pink Floyd)  with the debt numbers… UGH!

For What it’s Worth… I was sent this article by Matthew Piepenburg on Monday, and finally got it in today’s FWIW… This is about Gold and it can be found here: Too Late to Buy Gold? Not Even Close… The snippet is a long one today, so grab that cup-o-Joe, and lets’ get to this! 

Or, here’s your snippet: “Many are wondering if it’s too late to buy gold, that gold has peaked, and they have missed their opportunity.

Too Late to Buy Gold? Not Even Close…

We hope the below series of facts, figures and common-sense reality-checks will put such fears squarely to rest, as gold’s role, price direction and days are only just beginning.

A Light House in the Fog

In a world of geopolitical tensions, can-kicking monetary fantasies, falling bombs, rising debt, discredited leadership, impotent summits, weaponized trade and a comically discredited media narrative, it’s hard to find a lighthouse in such fog.

Even with the world closest to the brink of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis, the markets, forever certain that a lifeboat of mega liquidity is just one crisis away, churned Titanically forward with no ice berg fears.

VON GREYERZ advisor, Ronnie Stoeferle, sarcastically described the recent S&P, NASDAQ and NVIDIA behavior as being almost like that of a Zen monk.

But there’s nothing “Zen” about these markets, times, currencies or financial systems. And there’s certainly nothing “Zen” about the once-sacred 10Y UST…

How do we know this? How have we always known this?

In short, what has been our lighthouse?

The answer is as simple as it timeless, indestructible, and honest: Gold.

The Quiet Accumulation Phase

Unlike politicians scrambling for power like donkeys fighting for hay (Chamfort) and squawking threats, promises and miracle solutions for one more X follower, vote or concession, sophisticated gold investors—from generational family offices, portfolio managers and sovereign wealth funds to eastern central banks and even the IMF and BIS—have been quietly accumulating gold at unprecedented levels.

For the last 3 years (since the US foolishly weaponized the world reserve currency), central banks have been annually accumulating over 1000 tons of gold.

Average central bank gold stacking has skyrocketed from 118 tons (pre-2022), to over 290 tons per/bank/year post weaponization.

In short, despite all the fog, squawking, speculating and debating, precious metal investors have been watching what gold does rather than listening to what failed policy makers and systems are saying.

The Unofficial Reserve Currency

Nassim Taleb bluntly said the quiet part out loud in a recent Bloomberg interview, namely that gold is effectively becoming the unofficial global reserve currency.”

Chuck again… if you clicked on the link above, you found that the article goes on… And is chock-full-o-charts…  But I thank Matthew Piepenburg for his article! 

Market Prices 7/2/2025: American Style: A$.6555, kiwi .6059, C$ .7328, euro 1.1752, sterling 1.3649, Swiss $1.2597, European Style: rand 17.5884, krone 10.1108, SEK 9.5323, forint 339.52, zloty 3.6168, koruna 20.9870, RUB 78.61, yen 144.17, sing 1.2748, HKD 7.8499, INR 85.70, China 7.1692, peso 18.75, BRL 5.4762, BBDXY 1,1188, Dollar Index 96.73, Oil $66.33, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $36.31, Platinum $1,395.00, Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $5.12, and Gold… $3,339

That’s it for today… Well, today is two days before the 4^th of July… Our country’s Independence Day… Individuals shooting off fireworks is illegal in the country I live in, but that hasn’t stopped people from doing so to celebrate our Independence! Just be careful out there… Day game today from Pittsburgh, C’mon Cardinals you’ve got to pull one win out the series! In past years, I would be outside in my tiki bar watching the day game, with a few of my pals… But the TV shot the craps this year, and I haven’t replaced it yet, basically it’s been too darn hot to sit outside…  The Band Spirit takes us to the finish line today with their song: Nature’s Way…  I have a personal connection to this song, so I love it when it comes up… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday. And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler